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#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
The 80,000 mark, I think, is not that easy to hold.
BTC has broken through 80,000, indeed moving fiercely, rising from 64,000 in a week, with ETF net inflows of 1.9 billion dollars, and shorts liquidated by over 4 billion.
But honestly, I’m not confident about this level.
This rally is different from the last one; this wave heavily relies on ETFs and short squeezes, representing passive buying, not a push driven by continuous new capital inflows. Also, there is a large amount of trapped positions accumulated around 80,000 that need to be slowly digested. A pullback right after touching this level is highly probable.
Another variable is this week’s Jackson Hole symposium. If Powell speaks dovishly, it will take off directly; if hawkish, it might pull back to 73,000 or even lower.
My simple thought: don’t chase. Wait until it stabilizes. Holding cash is more reassuring than being trapped at the peak. $ETH In-depth Analysis of Tonight's PCE: Inflation Data Will Determine the Fed's September Direction 👍 At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the July PCE Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. This is the Fed's most valued inflation gauge, and this report will directly influence the market's judgment on whether to raise rates in September. The previously released July CPI and PPI have shown no signs of inflation accelerating again. Looking back at June PCE, it saw its first month-on-month decline since 2020, falling 0.11%. Institutions generally forecast a slight rebound in overall PCE in July, rising about 0.1% month-on-month, with year-on-year figures dropping slightly from 3.7% in June to around 3.6%. After excluding highly volatile items like food and energy, core inflationary pressures remain significant. The mainstream market expects core PCE in July to remain at 3.3% year-on-year, unchanged from June; Core PCE will rise month-on-month from 0.1% to 0.2%. In summary, the U.S. core PCE year-on-year has been above the Fed's 2% inflation target for 65 consecutive months. Given the current situation, the Federal Reserve does not yet have the confidence to announce externally that the battle against inflation has completely ended. Two New Factors Are Stirring Up Core Inflation Many investment bank analysts mentioned that the inflationary disturbances caused by tariffs are basically gone, but new forces are still pushing prices higher. On one hand, the expansion of the AI industry. An analyst at Côte des Foreign Trade said the AI wave is driving data center construction, driving up computer hardware and software pricesNow is the time to consider retreating! Nvidia is about to release its earnings report after the US market close, which will be early tomorrow morning. I believe that no matter what the earnings report is, crypto will have a major crash. Let's go through it step by step. —————————————————— If Nvidia's earnings meet expectations, its stock price is very likely to decline. Because its market value is currently very high, just meeting expectations won't sustain the current stock price. It must exceed expectations to maintain the current stock price. If Nvidia's stock price falls, the entire U.S. tech sector will be dragged down. Because its market capitalization is exceptionally high, so high that it can influence the entire market. Once the U.S. tech sector declines, many institutions will indiscriminately sell off. And cryptocurrencies that have already surged are the first to be sold off. Crypto, it's very likely to crash. —————————————————— If Nvidia's earnings report exceeds expectations, stocks like SanDisk are likely to see a significant rebound. At this point, crypto may come under pressure because a lot of risk capital will exit stocks like SanDisk. This is the best outcome I've ever predicted, and the only outcome for crypto that can maintain its current price. However, I think the probability of Nvidia's earnings exceeding expectations is relatively low. In the current market environment, it's already good if his financial report meets expectations. —————————————————— If Nvidia's earnings report falls short of expectations, it may face a 'no' crisisGold's high-level volatility actually indicates that it is no longer just a safe-haven trade.
In the past, many people bought gold thinking about war, inflation, or a weak dollar. But this cycle is more complex: fiscal credit, long-term bond yields, central bank purchases, ETF funds, AI bubble anxiety—all crowded into the same asset.
This makes gold very strong but also very crowded. Because when everyone buys the same asset for different reasons, the price may continue to hold firm in the short term, but once the Fed speaks, bond market sentiment shifts, or the dollar rebounds changing expectations, volatility can be fierce.
I don't think the gold story is over. It's just that chasing it at this level can't be explained by the word "safe-haven" alone. Are you buying protection, or are you buying a sense of security that others have already crowded into?
#黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 Concentration is decreasing, and chips are starting to loosen!
As of August 24, the highest chip peak — the accumulation at $63,000 — has dropped from a peak of 1.22 million to 980,000;
while the bar next to it at $62,000 shows little change, indicating that the short-term price rally has little impact on the chips here.
As we deduced in the possible future scenarios on August 21 (see the quote): once chips start to loosen, the price will either consolidate or even pull back.
A new chip concentration area will then form. Because the price staying put provides an opportunity for turnover.
Now it seems the $76,000-$77,000 range has the potential to become a new chip concentration area (Figure 1).
In just 3 days, 320,000 BTC were added in this range.
At the same time, when BTC broke through to $77,000-$78,000,
a strong wave of profit-taking occurred, the largest scale in nearly 6 months (Figure 2).
But even so, the price did not drop significantly.
Clearly, there is capital absorbing the supply here.
Assuming a new chip peak can indeed form near $76,000-$77,000, do you remember the "double anchor structure" theory? Then the subsequent BTC pullback will very likely fall in the middle of the structure.
That is roughly around $68,000-$70,000. $ETH $BTC $SOL Fundamental Research Report $FLOKI / Floki (Meme/Payment) $3.20
Conclusion first: Floki ($FLOKI) overall score 50/100, rating narrative over execution. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Floki (token $FLOKI), Meme/Payment sector. Focuses on Meme + on-chain university. Competitors include DOGE, SHIB. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend $50-500/month, settlement in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side, address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees undisclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap, Floki $3.00B, DOGE undisclosed, SHIB undisclosed. FDV, Floki $4.20B, DOGE undisclosed, SHIB undisclosed. Annual revenue, Floki $2.00M, DOGE undisclosed, SHIB undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users, Floki undisclosed, DOGE undisclosed, SHIB undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation, circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view doubles revenue, burn implementation, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players. In summary: fundamentals solid (score 50/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relies solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Ongoing monitoring: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
That's all for now, see you next time.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitIs this related to the U.S. repurchasing long-term Treasury bonds? This surge isn't just for one reason; several factors come together. Saying "the Treasury bought Treasury bonds so the price increase" is actually only half the story. The trigger was news from the U.S. Treasury. The U.S. announced it would double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases from $2 billion to $4 billion. This background is crucial: U.S. Treasuries just broke through $40 trillion, long-term rates keep climbing, and the yield on 30-year Treasuries once reached its highest level since 2007. The government is taking action to suppress long-term yields at this time, and the market interprets it as a signal: the U.S. may not want to accept further rate hikes and may use various means to depreciate the dollar. Once this logic holds, assets like gold and Bitcoin—which you can't print—will have reasons to rise. After the news broke, the dollar weakened, and gold rose in sync with Bitcoin, confirming this logic. But the price surged within hours, mainly because shorts were liquidated in one wave. Before this surge, Bitcoin had been sluggish for several months, with a large amount of money shorting. Treasury News pushed the price upward, and after breaking through several key levels, short sellers began to be forcibly liquidated. The forced liquidation logic was: exchanges automatically went to the market to buy coins to replenish positions; when buying orders rose, the price went higher, and when prices rose, more short liquidations were triggered...... This cycle was extremely fierce. On August 19 alone, about $2.7 billion in short positions in the entire crypto market were liquidated, the highest since statistics began, with Bitcoin shorts losing over $1 billion within an hour. Then real money from institutions started entering the market. Shortoptions expiring this Friday deserve close attention!
Around 81,700 BTC options contracts are set to expire, with a total notional value of roughly $6.4 billion.
There are approximately 44,600 call options versus 37,000 puts, putting the Put/Call ratio at 0.83 and keeping the overall positioning bullish.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold
#WarshAtJacksonHole
#IranSanctionsAndTalks On July 11th, I mentioned that the market's phase bottom had already appeared, and the main strategy was to buy on dips. Today, I’m updating my view: this phase bottom is very likely to become the historical bottom of this cycle. In other words, the bear market is over, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be short-term pullbacks. We are currently in a non-consensus phase where market perceptions are not unified. The four-year cycle won’t disappear, but as an asset matures and is driven by macro liquidity and asset allocation, the cycle will become distorted.
There was once a view that the worse the liquidity, the more you should play small-cap assets; the better the liquidity, the more you should play large-cap assets.
Now I’m expressing a new view: play consensus assets during non-consensus times, and play non-consensus assets during consensus times.
Simply put, take $HYPE as an example. HYPE can reach new highs during a bear market; the market invests funds and consensus into these coins, so during non-consensus times, play hype. That is, exchange temporal non-consensus for asset certainty.
In the late bull market, when everyone is discussing that BTC has become mainstream consensus and even traditional funds start aggressively allocating, BTC itself may still be very good, but the odds have been compressed by consensus. At this time, you need to exchange asset non-consensus for temporal certainty.
Summary:
When no one believes in the market, believe in the best assets;
When everyone believes in the market, look for assets no one else believes in yet.
So hold onto $HYPE Recent contacts between Iran and Oman have sent some signs of easing, and the market has begun betting that shipping pressure in the Strait of Hormuz may ease. If crude oil supply risks further ease, cooling oil prices may help ease short-term inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to impose additional sanctions on networks linked to Iran, indicating that geopolitical risks have not truly disappeared. Currently, $BTC is about $81.6K, $ETH about $2.63K. If negotiations continue and energy prices fall, the reduction in risk premium could further improve crypto market sentiment and provide support for BTC and ETH. However, it should be noted that if negotiations break down, tensions in Hormuz flare up again, or the U.S. expands sanctions, oil prices and safe-haven sentiment could rebound rapidly, potentially causing sharp volatility in the crypto market. What truly deserves attention going forward is not just price, but whether geopolitical situations, oil prices, and capital flows can improve in tandem. #BTC #ETH #Iran #Crypto #Bitcoinam Cige. The U.S. is expanding financial and trade sanctions against Iran, while countries like Qatar are pushing to resume negotiations. Both sides, Iran and the U.S., are engaging on the issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Sanctions escalation and diplomatic progress are happening simultaneously. Oil prices have not risen but instead fallen, as the market believes diplomacy is closer to yielding results than sanctions.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #WarshAtJacksonHole #IranSanctionsAndTalks 美国刚把制裁扩大到数字资产，伊朗反手就宣布海峡只通商船、军舰不让过——油价跌破80，比特币跌破79000，山寨币血流成河。我盯着屏幕笑了半天，确认了一件事：这不是利好出尽，这是曼施坦因说的“弹性防御”正式启动——而多头，就是那个被诱进去的敌军。 ⚔️ 曼施坦因的视角：多头刚打完“闪电战”，现在被诱进了口袋 曼施坦因的“弹性防御”核心就一句话：主动后撤，诱敌深入，等对手补给线拉长了再反手包抄。 7万到8万的这波拉升，就是多头的“闪电战”——40亿空头被爆、一周涨23%、4小时RSI飙到93以上的极端超买。但闪电战的燃料是空头尸体，不是真买盘。 空头爆完了，燃料就没了。 现在，弹性防御的陷阱已经挖好了。 第一，制裁升级，伊朗不退。 8月24日美国把制裁扩大到数字资产、黄金、航运等5个领域。伊朗最高领袖顾问直接回怼：“回应将比以往更加坚决”。 第二，海峡通了一半，但另一半是陷阱。 伊朗宣布只允许商船通行，军舰不让过。同时伊朗外长明确说：“海峡开放取决于美国是否完全接受伊朗的条件”。油价跌了，但地缘风险溢价根本没消散——只是从“明牌”变成了“暗牌”。 第三，比特币已经先跪了。 25日刚突破81Recently, after the Bitcoin rally, it started trading sideways. Although cryptocurrencies have risen about 30% in just one week, strangely, the market doesn't seem to show strong FOMO, nor is there any frenzy of "the bull market is coming, go all-in." I wonder if anyone else feels this way? Of course, a small number of people have made money. For example, Maji Big Brother reportedly used 60,000 yuan to roll through positions and eventually made over 10 million, which is truly an exaggerated return. But the problem is, most retail investors actually missed out on this rally. Why? Because during the previous market decline, many retail investors had been waiting for the so-called "last drop." "If it drops one more time, I'll buy." "When BTC drops above 50,000, I'll get in on the board." "We're not at the real bottom yet." But after waiting and waiting, the Bitcoin market didn't give another chance; instead, it just jumped up. There are still some people thinking: "It's okay, once this rally ends, it will definitely fall again. I'll get in then." But I think this time it might not be so easy. Because the funds driving the market this time may have already changed. 1. The bottom-fishing this time might not be retail investors, but institutions I recently looked at the BTC balances across all online exchanges; currently, there are only about 700,000 BTC. Of course, this number may vary depending on the data platform, but the trend is very clear: BTC in exchanges is decreasing. Why is exchange balance worth paying attention to? Because for most people,$BTC
Money is still flowing in, but BTC has fallen back below 80,000.
This is more noteworthy than a simple 5% drop.
This wave has risen all the way from over 60,000, and the first half is easy to understand:
Short sellers were heavily squeezed, and the liquidations themselves created buying pressure.
But now the situation is starting to change.
ETF funds are still flowing in, but BTC hasn’t continued to surge with the positive news; instead, it has fallen back to around 79,000.
So what I want to see most now is not "when will it break 83,000."
But rather:
Money is still coming in, so why is the price starting to stall?
If BTC stabilizes above 80,000 again, I would consider it just a strong turnover.
But if ETFs keep buying and positive news keeps coming, yet the price finds it harder and harder to break through each time,
then we need to be cautious.
Because the real danger in the market often doesn’t come from big negative news.
It’s when the good news is still there, but the price no longer rewards it.
$BTC Recent negotiations between Iran and Oman over shipping issues in the Strait of Hormuz have brought new expectations of easing to the market. The latest news shows that both sides are discussing temporary shipping corridors and related security arrangements. As a result, international oil prices have continued to fall, with Brent crude once falling to around $86, easing market concerns about energy supply disruptions. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to impose economic pressure and sanctions on Iran-related networks, indicating that geopolitical risks have not truly disappeared. Any new sanctions or unexpected negotiations could once again push energy prices and market risk aversion. In the crypto market, $BTC is currently fluctuating around $79,000, while $ETH is trading around $2,450. After a recent rapid rise, the market has begun to see some profit-taking, but overall risk appetite remains worth watching. If diplomatic progress between Iran and Oman continues, risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz will further decline, and inflationary pressures from falling oil prices may ease, potentially creating a more favorable macro environment for risk assets like $BTC and $ETH. 📈 On the other hand, if negotiations stall, sanctions escalate, or regional tensions worsen again, market sentiment could quickly reverse, and crypto volatility could amplify once more. ⚠️ Next to focus on: Iran negotiations → Hormuz shipping → international oil prices $→ and macro sentiment → crypto capital flows. #BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranNVIDIA's earnings report will be revealed tonight, a key battle in the AI bull market—how should it be traded?
NVIDIA's "better-than-expected" performance this quarter is already the market's default script. Whether the stock price can rise depends on whether management can deliver three simultaneous benefits: improved profitability of cloud providers, controllable financing risks, and large-scale capital returns. For investors optimistic about the AI theme, relatively cheap options offer an asymmetric participation window. The deeper trading logic lies in whether the Rubin platform can initiate the next round of higher base growth curve, and whether the controversy over circular financing can be clarified, which will determine if the valuation narrative can complete its transition.
NVIDIA's earnings report this quarter is very likely still a strong performance, but the market's question is no longer "whether it exceeds expectations," but whether it can provide sufficient answers after exceeding expectations. From options pricing to institutional disagreements, from circular financing controversies to power bottlenecks, this earnings report is becoming a touchstone for whether the AI bull market can enter the next phase.Bitcoin firmly stands above $80,000, with about $2.6 billion flowing into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs last week. This figure itself tells us that institutional funds are not leaving, but are expressing their stance with real money. 💧 When large-cap blue-chip assets are so strong in attracting money, the market often experiences a subtle divergence: some funds continue to chase certainty, while others start looking for greater elasticity on the periphery. What is worth watching now is whether this capital rotation is spreading from Bitcoin to Ethereum and higher-volatility assets, such as platform coins like BNB and OKB, as well as some infrastructure tokens. 🌀 Sustained net inflows into ETFs are currently one of the most solid supporting logics. It means traditional funds are gradually allocating crypto assets through compliant channels, and this buying behavior tends to be more sustained and better resistant to short-term sentiment fluctuations. Meanwhile, changes in Bitcoin's market share and Ethereum's relative strength have become key indicators for judging whether funds are truly flowing over. If Bitcoin's dominance starts to decline while Ethereum continues to strengthen, it is usually a sign that capital risk appetite is rising. 🌱 However, it is important to note that capital rotation is never a straight line. Last week's large inflows may have partially priced in the current price, and whether this can continue depends on the combination of macro liquidity and market confidence. For high-beta assets, resilience is two-way: stronger during upswings and more sensitive during pullbacks. 📉 Right now, it feels more like a structural selection period: Bitcoin is consolidating itselfBTC breaks through $80,000: Sentiment rapidly reverses, a game under a short squeeze scenario. Bitcoin once surged to $81,000, then retreated to fluctuate between $78,000 and $79,000, with a weekly gain of nearly 24%, marking the best weekly performance since 2023. In just one month, crypto market sentiment has undergone a dramatic reversal, with the Fear and Greed Index breaking out from the fear zone at 36 to 80, entering an extreme greed state.
The core driver of this rally is the return of institutional funds. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $1.92 billion in one week, hitting a nearly 10-month high. Coinbase premium turned positive from negative, reflecting that US institutions are continuously accumulating, driving Ethereum to hold steady above $2,500, and triggering a comprehensive market profit effect.
At the macro level, it became the fuse for the rally. The US Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $40 billion, leading to expectations of loose market trading liquidity. US Treasury yields and the dollar weakened, with funds flowing into Bitcoin, gold, and other assets, boosting this round of rebound.
However, extreme greed is a double-edged sword. The index standing above 80 means a large amount of momentum-following funds entering the market, increasing short-term correction risks. Although the bull market allows the continuation of fervent sentiment, this rally includes buying from short squeeze liquidations; after the shorts are exhausted, the upward momentum may weaken.
Whether the $80,000 level can hold depends on observing two signals: whether the spot ETF continues to have net inflows—once it turns to outflows, it can easily trigger profit-taking escapes; and if the Fear and Greed Index continues to rise, it indicates the market sentiment is overheated. $PENGU short position dropped from 0.009513 to 0.009257, with a floating profit of 134%. Watching the order book, the market maker's quote intervals are widening, indicating they are actively reducing quote frequency to lower risk exposure.
Once the market maker withdraws, the order book becomes a vacuum, and the price will gap instantly. Holding a 50x position during such abnormal quote intervals is the most dangerous. I took profit on 90% directly, leaving 10% with a stop loss raised to 0.009513 to break even, and a trailing stop at 0.0094.
If you haven't entered yet, don't open positions when market making quotes are abnormal—that's a pit with no one to take the other side. $BTC $ETH Storage sector sees a stark contrast! Dropped over 6% the day before yesterday, then a full-scale pre-market rebound yesterday
$xSNDK $xMU $WDC This wave really wore people out.
On August 24, the storage sector collectively plunged: SanDisk down 6.45%, Seagate 6.51%, Micron 5.83%, Western Digital 5.24%, SK Hynix 4.92%. Samsung fell 8.7%, triggered by its shareholder return plan "falling short of expectations."
Then on August 26 pre-market, a full-scale rebound: Seagate and Western Digital rose over 3%, Hynix and Micron rose over 2%, SanDisk rose over 3%. From hell to heaven in one day.
Core reason: Nvidia's earnings report tonight. Funds are betting on better-than-expected results and rushing to accumulate early; storage is the sector that benefits most directly from AI computing power. SK Hynix's 40 trillion buyback + PE 3.8x + HBM locked until 2027 long-term logic remains unchanged, but short-term volatility is huge, so don't bet on direction before the earnings report. #StorageSectorRebound $SNDK $MU The market is entering a more sensitive phase: positive expectations have already been priced in in advance, and what truly determines the trend next is whether actual capital can keep up. The latest data shows that on August 25, the net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs was about $327 million, with IBIT contributing about $271 million; Spot ETH ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $192 million, while ETHA accounted for about $155 million. Continued capital inflows indicate that institutional demand remains, but short-term ETF buying alone is not enough to confirm new trends. $BTC To regain a stable position near $81K, ETF funds need to continue increasing and corporate treasuries to keep increasing holdings, providing more solid spot liquidity for the rise. $ETH requires continuous net ETF inflows and further follow-up by institutional/corporate funds. If capital flows do not significantly cool, ETH will have a better chance to accumulate enough momentum and attempt a breakout toward the next key resistance area. The core issue now is not "whether prices can rise," but rather how much positive news has already been priced in, and whether new funds can continue to enter the market. 👀 #BTC80KHoldOrFold #ETH #Bitcoin #EthereumMaji was not liquidated today, and even added a net 1,360.9838 ETH. As of 17:17 Beijing time on August 26, his ETH position had a floating gain of about $200,000, showing the liquidation price had risen to $2,171. The position was temporarily alive, but the safe distance was rapidly narrowing. I took one public account snapshot at 17:11 and one at 17:17. In just six minutes, the ETH marker price fell from $2,457.9 to $2,447.2, Maji's ETH gain dropped from $441,000 to $200,000, and account equity also dropped from $9.633 million to $9,023,000. Meanwhile, ETH showed forced depletion from $2,155 to $2,171. He currently holds 22,560.9838 ETH long positions, with an average opening price of $2,438.33, a position value of about $55.21 million, set at 25x cross-margin leverage. The current price is only 0.36% higher than cost, with a page return of about 9.09%. From $2,447.2 to the current strong depletion price, there is still about 11.28% of the gap. Today's trading volume is also interesting. From midnight to 17:12 Beijing time, he opened a total long position of 2,850 ETH, averaging 1,489.0162 ETH, a net increase of 1,360.9838 coins, and his position expanded by about 6.4% from mid-point. During this period, closing positions yielded a profit of about $35,600, paying about $1,952 in fees and $5,825 in funding fees. No forced liquidation marks appeared in the public transaction records. I am more concerned about his cross-margin risk.$BTC is dropping even though money is still flowing in: What's going on?
BTC is falling, but paradoxically, ETFs still attracted nearly $2 billion last week, with many spot sessions recording inflows over $300M.
The key lies in the money flow structure: the recent rally was amplified by nearly $3B in Shorts being liquidated. When the forced buying ended, buyers from the $60–70K range started taking profits as BTC rose to $80–82K.
Therefore, I don't see this as a bearish reversal yet. BTC is absorbing supply after an overheated rally.
$BTC The latest negotiations between Iran and Oman over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are improving market sentiment, with hopes of restoring shipping lanes driving oil prices lower and easing short-term pressure on energy supply and inflation. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to strengthen sanctions against Iran-related entities and networks, and geopolitical risks have not completely disappeared. Currently, $BTC is fluctuating around $79,000, while $ETH has retreated to the $2,450–$2,500 range. After Bitcoin's recent sharp rise, it still holds a key psychological level, but the market is digesting some profit-taking. If diplomatic negotiations continue to make progress, the risk premium on the Strait of Hormuz will further decline, and oil prices may remain under pressure, which will help improve sentiment toward risk assets and provide a more stable macro environment for the crypto market. 📈 However, the market still needs to remain vigilant. ⚠️ Any breakdown in negotiations, escalation of new sanctions, or a strait security incident could quickly drive up oil prices and trigger global market risk aversion, intensifying short-term volatility in $BTC and $ETH. Next, focus on: oil price trends→ Hormuz negotiations→ sanctions dynamics, → capital flows in the crypto market. #BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #IranTalks #StraitOfHormuz #Bitcoin #EthereumThe current market expectation for core PCE is 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. If the results meet or even fall below expectations, it would be positive for BTC, ETH, and US stocks, as this would reinforce the narrative that "inflation is not spiraling out of control"; conversely, if core PCE significantly exceeds expectations, the market will have to reprice the risk of interest rates staying high or tightening further, which would clearly increase the downside pressure on Bitcoin. Recently, the US Treasury has indeed been increasing long-term Treasury buybacks, partly to ease pressure on long-end yields, but this does not mean the PCE data will necessarily be "massaged" to look better. What really matters for trading is the difference between the reported value and expectations. So my approach tonight is simple: if PCE is below expectations, lean bullish; if it meets expectations, first see if the market follows through; if it exceeds expectations, beware of a pullback in BTC and SOL together. ⚠️ And tonight is not over yet—there’s also Nvidia’s earnings after the market close. The Nvidia options market is already pricing in about 5.4% post-earnings volatility, which could also significantly impact AI/storage chain stocks like MU and SNDK. Tonight is not the time to bet on direction; wait for the data to land and then follow, which will increase your odds of success. 🔥 $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are playing increasingly clear roles in the current market. Rather than being three assets, they represent three completely different capital logics and holding mindsets. The market is not experiencing a widespread rally, but has entered a hierarchical structure, with each layer having its own rhythm and participants. Let's start with Bitcoin. From $60,000 to around $79,800, the core driving force behind this rally is not retail sentiment, but the continuous net inflow of spot ETF funds. Institutional funds tend to prioritize certainty and liquidity, making Bitcoin the most stable cornerstone in the entire market. Its trend is relatively smooth, with controllable drawdowns, making it suitable as a core position for long-term holding in portfolios. When the market experiences uncertainty, capital's first reaction is often to flock to these assets for safe haven. Ethereum is in a subtle acceleration phase. Recently, weekly net inflows into spot ETFs reached about $699 million, a new yearly high, a figure that itself indicates a shift in institutional attitudes toward it. The price rebounded from around $1,900 to the $2,500 mark, maintaining the stability of mainstream assets while also showing some upward resilience. For those who feel Bitcoin is too volatile and don't want direct exposure to high-risk altcoins, Ethereum offers a middle ground. Its performance is more like a thermometer of market risk appetite—not extreme, but sufficiently sensitive. Solana, on the other hand, takes a different path. On-chain DEX trading activityThe world's largest enterprise-level BTC holder, whose purchases, reductions, and financing actions are important indicators of institutional sentiment. 1. Core holdings and key data - Currently holding 840447 BTC, with an average holding cost of $75,385 per coin, current price of $78,658, and a book unrealized profit of about $4.01 billion. - The last BTC purchase was on June 22, and since then, increased holdings have been suspended; From June to August, a total of 6,916 BTC were sold, mainly for repurchasing high-yield preferred shares, paying dividends, and optimizing debt structure, not a bearish BTC narrative. - In August, raised $3.28 billion through stock issuance, but did not use it to buy coins. Capital splitting: regular reserves of $5.1 billion, newly established flexible coin purchase cash pool of $1.59 billion, total USD liquidity of $6.69 billion. Funds are in place, but there has been no entry to buy stock. 2. Recent Market Changes to Watch 1. Breaking the "buy only, not sell" approach. In the past, they only hoarded without moving; now, to reduce high dividend pressure, they are willing to sell BTC below average cost, prioritizing finance over mindless hoarding. 2. Holding huge amounts of cash but waiting and waiting. The USD Cash pool was specifically designed to buy BTC, but in the face of this rebound, it did not act. This indirectly shows that institutions do not recognize the current price as an ideal position and are waiting for a more comfortable position. 3. MSTR stock is highly pegged to BTC. Movements in MSTR before and during the US market indirectly drive BTC market sentiment; If MSTR weakens sharply, it will be conductedThe mass production of HBM4 combined with Nvidia's earnings report is triggering a position rebalancing and valuation reassessment of $xSKHY within the AI computing power chain. SK Hynix achieved a 76% profit margin in Q2 with a price-to-earnings ratio of only 3.5, and holding over 50% of the HBM market share has solidified the risk appetite support base. If Nvidia's earnings guidance tonight exceeds expectations and confirms HBM4 demand, funds will push the ADR to break through the $165 resistance and test $170. If macro risk-off selling triggers an overall pullback, the key observation will be whether the ADR can hold the $155 support.
#英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注Reasons for the pullback: triple pressure overlay
① $83,000 technical resistance (maximum suppression)
$83,000 is the position of the 365-day moving average, regarded by analysts as the "lifeline." BTC encountered resistance and retreated near $81,200 in advance, indicating heavy selling pressure in this area. CryptoQuant's "bullish score" surged from 30 to 80 within 7 days; the last time such an extreme score appeared was in October 2025 when BTC was at $124,000—short-term momentum is extremely overextended.
② Extreme greed triggers profit-taking
The Fear and Greed Index soared to the "extreme greed" range of 80-83, and RSI fell back to 65-70 after breaking above 80 in overbought territory. The profit realization rate among retail investors rose to 20.5%, a new high since June 2025. The overlay of short-term overheating signals triggered concentrated early profit-taking.
③ Whales begin transferring assets to exchanges
In the past 48 hours, the inflow of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple into centralized exchanges has increased. Historical data shows this often accompanies subsequent selling pressure. Large holder wallets recorded a single-day net gain of $614 million, the highest this year, with some whales choosing to cash out. $BTC $ETH $MOVE #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Pre-market refers to the extended trading session from 4:00 to 9:30 AM Eastern Time, with liquidity far weaker than the official open. It holds strong reference value for crypto RWA tokens SNDK, xNVDA, and $XAUT, but pre-market pulses cannot be directly considered effective trends.
1. Core Observational Data
1) Nasdaq and S&P Futures
Nasdaq NQ and S&P ES futures represent global risk appetite. Futures rising more than 0.5% indicate increased risk appetite, benefiting AI storage and tech stocks, indirectly driving BTC; weakening futures put growth assets under collective pressure. Pre-market futures are the primary indicator for judging the market open tone.
2) US 10-Year Treasury Yield + US Dollar DXY
Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar suppress tech growth; falling yields benefit US tech stocks and crypto risk assets. Pre-market releases of CPI, initial jobless claims, and other data directly rewrite the trends of both.
3) Pre-market Price Change + Volume (Most Important Filter)
Individual stocks moving ±2% or more pre-market indicate significant anomalies. Similarly, a 4% rise with low volume is a false pulse; only when volume meets standards is the signal credible. High or low opens caused by low volume often reverse after the official open. Key focus: Nvidia NVDA, Micron MU, SanDisk SNDK, and the storage sector’s collective pre-market strength or weakness directly determine $SNDK’s trend.
4) VIX Fear Index
A rising VIX indicates market expectations of increased intraday volatility, raising spike risks for RWA tokens and BTC; a falling VIX suggests calmer market sentiment.
5,@懂币猫 believes that the pullback after $BTC broke through 80,000 is not yet sufficient to be classified as a trend reversal. After a pullback to about 77,900 in the early hours of the 26th, the price still mainly consolidated sideways; There are no clear conditions for short selling at the two-hour and four-hour levels, so the market remains bullish. What really needs to be guarded against is not the anxiety of "not getting in," but using a strong trend as a reason to leverage and chase gains. The previous roughly 30% smooth rally has already ended; bulls can take profits in batches during the rally, but this does not mean they have fully closed their positions. To continue breaking out next, the daily chart needs to provide better coordination with trading volume; Before that, the market is more like consolidation after a strong rally, rather than a one-sided segment suitable for frequent bets. He regards the 78,000 area as the trigger zone for short-term strategies: if the two-hour close effectively breaks below the limit, then the strategy will start to set short selling conditions. The more critical structural defense line is around 76,500 to 76,000 — if it breaks below the previous low and cannot be quickly recovered, it indicates the upward momentum has been disrupted and the market may switch to a longer consolidation scenario. Even so, it's not about immediately chasing short trades, but waiting for the structure to provide the next odds. He reminds that breaking above 80,000 may come from new buying or mixed with short stops; Currently, low selling pressure is strong evidence but cannot replace confirmation. For those who missed out, don't use high leverage to buy after three sharp pull candlesticks. Previously, similar rapid rallies often led to 10% to 15% clearance; waiting for sideways consolidation, confirmed volume and price, or smaller cycle structures is more meaningful than guessing tops and bottoms. For $ETH, he$BTC $ETH I'm increasingly skeptical that this wave of shouting "the bull is back" is essentially a large group of people who missed out, unable to withstand the psychological pressure, finally entering the market chasing highs.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
BTC surged from over 60,000 all the way to around 80,000, and suddenly all sorts of logic appeared in the market.
Loose liquidity, institutional entry, Treasury buybacks, interest rate cut expectations, AI market continuation—various reasons are everywhere.
But I'm just thinking about one question: Did these positives only emerge in the past couple of days?
Or is it that after the price went up, everyone is desperately trying to find all kinds of reasons to justify the rise?
No need to rush to calculate how many more points it can rise.
What should be watched more closely is who will be the last batch near 80,000, the ones afraid of missing the market, who feel if they don't rush now, it will be too late.
I want to ask everyone, standing at this moment, do you think the bull market has just started, or is the market sentiment already a bit overheated?
⚠️Personal market thoughts, not investment advice Bank of Montreal $BMO Q3 earnings report shows a -25% year-over-year net profit
But this does not mean its operations have deteriorated; adjusted net profit increased by 19% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share grew by 22%
This indicates that the earnings report was affected by a one-time factor impacting the book profit, rather than any deterioration in core profitability
Regarding this one-time factor, not many people talked about it after the earnings release, but the answer was actually disclosed two to three months ago
First, this one-time factor is due to the sale of two businesses: transportation finance and supplier finance
The former provides financing loans to the transportation industry, and the latter provides financing loans to various manufacturers and suppliers
This sale is not a simple small-scale business adjustment; it involves approximately CAD 14.5 billion in loan and lease asset portfolios
In an official document released earlier (in May), the impact of this transaction was already explained
➠ To summarize in one point: this sale temporarily affects the profit figures reported for the current period but improves the return on equity in the long term
How to understand this? For example, originally Montreal invested one million, and because it had different product portfolios, the total returns generated were also dispersed across various products
Now it sells two products; the products themselves are fine, but the profit generated per unit might be relatively lower compared to other products
Thus, by "reducing the denominator" to increase the [return on investment], this is the underlying logic of this transaction Bitcoin ETF net inflows for 7 consecutive days, capital flow is recovering
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $314 million on Tuesday, marking 7 consecutive trading days of inflows; the cumulative net inflow in August reached $3.03 billion, and the net outflow for the year narrowed to $2.26 billion, with total net assets rising to $99.05 billion.
This appears more like a recovery in capital flow: the previous pressure of capital outflows is easing, but there is still a net outflow for the year, so it cannot be confirmed that the market trend has reversed based on this. Seven consecutive days is a change; whether it becomes a trend depends on whether ETFs can maintain net buying during market pullbacks.
For long-term observers, the value of ETFs is not in providing market answers but in making capital inflows and outflows more visible.
#比特币ETF #BTCAfter briefly surpassing $80,000, Bitcoin has now fallen back to around $78,800, while Ethereum has simultaneously weakened to $2,449. This round of correction did not break the previous rebound structure, but after continuous gains, the willingness to take profits is clearly increasing. Market warmth remains, but sentiment has shifted from frenzy to caution. Looking at market details, what truly deserves attention is not the volatility of major coins themselves, but the layered flow of funds. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, providing solid bottom support for the two core assets. However, this institutional-level buying pressure has not naturally spilled over to small and mid-cap tokens. Stocks like H, LAB, KAITO, BEAT, and SNDK have recently performed significantly weaker than mainstream assets, indicating that incremental funds are still highly concentrated at the top rather than spreading across the board. Under this pattern, the market exhibits a typical "selective rotation" pattern. Funds test the waters back and forth between individual sectors and narratives, but have yet to form a broad rally. For investors looking forward to the altcoin season, current data and capital flows do not support this judgment. More accurately, the market is currently in a transitional phase of structural differentiation—mainstream stabilization, counterfeit differentiation, and scattered hotspots. We need to understand the logic behind this. When ETFs become the main source of incremental funds, their allocation preferences naturally favor large-cap assets with good liquidity and high compliance. The activity of altcoins often requires a significant recovery in retail investor sentiment and leverageThe US Expands Sanctions on Iran While Strait Reopening Talks Continue: Under the Geopolitical Pulse, Who Is the True Asset Pricing Anchor?
The US-Iran game has entered a familiar rhythm of fighting while negotiating. The US is intensifying financial sanctions while simultaneously engaging in talks on joint navigation management for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, crude oil prices have retraced some of their risk premium.
Many friends react to geopolitical news by hastily adjusting their positions. But I have always believed that the impact paths of geopolitical events on various assets are not on the same dimension.
If the Strait of Hormuz ultimately returns to stable navigation, crude oil will be the first to desensitize, as spot prices and geopolitical risk discounts are the most direct. Next is gold; although the geopolitical premium will partially fade, the hard logic of global central banks de-dollarizing their reserves remains, so the retracement is relatively controllable. As for BTC, geopolitical situations have never been its core pricing anchor; global macro liquidity and real interest rate expectations are the fundamental determinants of its long-term trend.
In the face of repeated geopolitical tug-of-war, the worst thing is to chase every breaking news for trading. Short-term violent fluctuations in crude oil may temporarily push up inflation expectations, but as long as there is no sustained supply cliff, such pulses are often quickly digested by the market. My strategy has always been to treat geopolitical volatility as a stress test, keep the base position unchanged, and focus attention on the evolution of medium- to long-term liquidity cycles.
Faced with frequent reversals in geopolitical news, do you frequently adjust your positions or choose to stick to your established allocation strategy?
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 One month ago, ETH was the most heavily criticized, and one month later, which is today, $ETH is still the most praised, because at the price of 2451, it dropped less than 1%, steady as an old dog!
ETF inflows have been continuous, with $697M last week, the best week this year. Fidelity's ETH ETF opened 100% staking, so institutions holding ETH can still earn 4.2% annualized yield—who wouldn't do that.
On-chain data shows net outflows from exchanges for 5 consecutive days, with 18,700 $ETH withdrawn. Whales are accumulating. Addresses holding over 10,000 ETH increased their holdings by 124,000 ETH in the past 7 days, about $306 million. It's not retail buying; big money is building positions.
Last year when ETH dropped to $2,100, several DeFi people I know started buying ETH with treasury funds. The logic was simple: DeFi protocols earning ETH is not as good as directly holding and waiting for appreciation. At the time, I thought they were crazy, but now it looks like they were right. The market is never linear; those who wait don't lose.
In terms of trading, don't be bearish if $2,400 support holds. Consider adding positions if it pulls back to $2,300. The resistance at $2,550 is the August pressure level. The mid-term target is $3,000. Don't compare ETH's ups and downs with BTC; the big brother and the second brother each have their own rhythm!
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Iran risk now has two competing trades. Tougher US sanctions could squeeze oil supply, lift inflation and tighten dollar liquidity. Diplomacy could do the opposite by reopening Hormuz and stripping the risk premium from crude and gold.$BTC BTC sits awkwardly between both outcomes. Lower tensions reduce haven demand but improve the liquidity backdrop. The next move may depend less on geopolitics itself and more on whether#BTC80KHoldOrFold #WarshAtJacksonHole #IranSanctionsAndTalks Imagine, this time Starship recovery took 40 days
At this pace, only nine Starship launches can be done in a year
Musk said Falcon will be phased out, and all future launches will be Starship
Starship hasn't even stopped on the launch pad or landed on the ground yet
So completing the first launch pad recovery for Starship is very difficult, from 0 to 1
Secondly, the launch site in Louisiana has already been complained about by locals
The reason is that the noise from launches is driving people 20 kilometers away crazy
Musk isn't trying to phase out Falcon, but seeing China's rocket technology
If nothing is done, the promises can't be kept. So much money has been burned, what now?
How to give shareholders an explanation? $SPCX is still overvalued at present
Without any measures, the stock price can't hold up, understand?
#NVIDIA持有SpaceX约210亿美元，AI协同受关注 Today's market was like a freshly filled glass of sparkling water—bubbles rising but quietly fading after a while. Did you feel that after BTC reached 80,000 and ETH hit back 2,500, that "one more push" momentum suddenly slowed down? Let me start with my real feelings. Last night, when I was watching the market, the price was still rising, but my attention was no longer on the gains, but on the sell orders quietly thickening in the order book. The faster the price rises, the more you have to ask: Who will buy it? This wave of rallying looks like a price breakout, but in reality, it's trading with the expectation that "ETF funds are still flowing in." Last week, Bitcoin ETFs absorbed about $1.92 billion, and Ethereum also saw $697 million in inflow. The money is indeed coming in, and the direction is indeed bullish, but the question is, is this money here to build positions or to carry the sedan chair? I think the most subtle point in the market right now isn't whether it rises or not, but whether the "momentum" is sufficient. Prices can be pushed up by sentiment, but holding firm requires real buying orders to digest profit-taking. BTC is currently holding in the 79,000 to 80,000 range, while ETH must work hard to turn 2500 from resistance into a floor. As long as these two levels are not lost, this pullback is just a halfway pause, not a curtain call. But I must remind myself and you that there are several undiscussed risk points hidden within the bullish structure: - If ETF inflows suddenly turn negative next week, the price will immediately lose its strongest support logic. - Profit-taking positions don't necessarily have to wait for a big dropXRP has indeed surged sharply this week.
But I just saw a piece of data that seems more worth noting than "up 44%."
The 24-hour futures trading volume is about $6.4 billion.
Spot volume is only around $1.2 billion.
In other words, the hottest place for XRP right now is actually in leverage.
And the longs are clearly more than the shorts.
At times like this, I actually feel a bit scared.
Not scared that it will definitely drop.
But scared that if it crashes down, everyone will rush to the exit together.
$XRPIRAN TALKS & CRYPTO
Iran–Oman talks are raising hopes of smoother Strait of Hormuz shipping, helping oil prices cool and easing near-term inflation concerns. Meanwhile, new U.S. sanctions on Iran-linked networks keep geopolitical risks elevated.
$BTC is near $79K, while $ETH holds around $2.5K. If diplomacy continues, lower oil prices and reduced risk premiums could support crypto sentiment.
However, renewed tensions or tougher sanctions could quickly trigger volatility. The difference in volatility between BTC, ETH, and SOL is actually this big
In recent days, during a range-bound market, under the same overall market conditions, I observed BTC fluctuating between 77800 and 80000 with relatively restrained volatility; ETH experienced frequent spikes with significantly larger amplitude; $SOL often swings ±8% in a single day, and the number of contract liquidations has multiplied.
Comparing contract data, SOL's leveraged positions account for a much higher proportion than BTC and ETH, so even small capital inflows or outflows amplify volatility.
I once used BTC's trading logic to trade SOL with the same stop-loss range; BTC was fine, but SOL immediately wiped me out.
In the same market conditions, different coins have completely different volatility characteristics, so you can't apply the same parameters to all assets. For highly elastic coins, you must further reduce position size and increase tolerance, otherwise you'll get shaken out repeatedly in a choppy market.
Risk warning: Highly elastic public chain coins have drastic volatility and crowded leverage, with extremely low tolerance for errors, making them unsuitable for regular position operations. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $ETH $SOL The crypto market is reacting quite specifically to the Iran-US developments. It is worth noting that the US has just expanded sanctions on nearly 60 individuals, organizations and ships related to Iran, in which the new scope also includes digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. However, the market did not react completely in the direction of "increased tensions = crypto decreased". In contrast, when Iran and Oman resumed discussions on a maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices fell by more than 2%, Treasury yields Educated by the short squeeze market, don't easily go against the trend
Recently, the market has been continuously forcing shorts to cover, with a total of $2.7 billion in short positions liquidated across the network in 24 hours. Subjectively, I felt the price had risen too much, so I opened a short on BTC against the trend at a high level, along with small short positions on HYPE and $TRUMP.
Short-term unrealized losses kept expanding, and contract data showed that open short positions were still accumulating, with market makers passively pushing prices higher. Although my logic told me the valuation was high, market sentiment was completely on the bulls' side.
In the end, I painfully stopped losses and exited. Only afterward did I realize: even if you think the price is expensive, as long as the market is still in a short squeeze phase, don't subjectively try to guess the top.
My current rule: during a short squeeze market, do not actively try to short at the top; wait until the market shows continuous volume decline and a liquidation structure reversal before attempting to trade the pullback.
Risk warning: Trend markets have very strong sentiment premiums; trying to pick tops and bottoms against the trend has a very poor risk-reward ratio and is prone to consecutive stop-losses and losses. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $ETH $SOL Smart money bottom-fishing signals cannot be directly used to open positions
I really like tracking smart money wallet addresses. Recently, I saw a batch of smart money accumulating ZEC and LINK at low levels, with clear on-chain transfer records. I followed and went all in.
But after entering, I realized that smart money was building positions slowly in more than ten small trades, while I went all in at once. Then the market fluctuated and consolidated; ZEC retraced 14%, LINK pulled back 8%. I couldn’t withstand the volatility and cut losses to exit, and only a few days later did the market start to move up.
On-chain data only shows their purchases, not their overall position or stop-loss levels, nor how many backup bullets they have. BTC and ETH often see whales bottom-fishing, but the market continues to dip afterward.
Whales can endure 20-30% drawdowns; ordinary retail investors cannot. On-chain signals are for reference, not buy instructions. Blindly copying big players’ moves is a common pitfall in trading.
Risk warning: Whales and smart money on-chain behavior involves phased position building and long-term tolerance. Retail investors should not directly follow with heavy positions. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC BTC remains volatile at high levels, holding above 79,000! The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting opens tomorrow, and Wash's debut is the biggest variable — August 26 Cryptocurrency Evening Briefing
Good evening, brothers, BTC has entered a high-level consolidation mode after breaking through $80,000.
Bitcoin once touched $81,237 yesterday, a three-month high. It then retreated to around $79,000 for consolidation. At the time of writing, BTC is about $78,800-79,000, down about 0.8% in 24 hours, but still up 21%-24% over the past week. The market is awaiting this week's biggest macro variable — the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.
📊 Market Data
Asset Current Price 24h Change 7d Change Key Changes
BTC ~78,800 -0.8% +21-24% Yesterday's high $81,237
ETH ~2,465 ~-1.5% ~+30% Pulled back after reclaiming 2,500
SOL ~97-98 ~-2% ~+27% Pulled back after breaking 100
📰 Hot Topic 1: Jackson Hole Meeting Opens Tomorrow, Wash's Debut Is the Biggest Variable
The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held from August 27 to 29 in Wyoming, USA, with the theme "Financial Innovation: Impacts on Payments and Policy."
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wash will speak at 22:00 Beijing time on August 28. This will be his first appearance at Jackson Hole since taking office in May and the most important public speech before the Fed's September policy meeting.
What is the market worried about?
Traders are eager to capture signals of the Fed's "reaction function" — US inflation has stubbornly remained above the 2% target for a long time, and federal debt has exceeded $40 trillion.
Since taking office in May, Wash has sharply reduced communication between the Fed and the market, significantly cutting forward guidance. His last appearance after a rate decision triggered a large market sell-off, highlighting the market's high sensitivity to this speech.
Three scenario projections:
· Dovish: If Wash hints at tolerance for rate cuts or pausing the current tightening cycle, BTC may benefit from a risk appetite rebound, pushing toward 83,000-85,000
· Hawkish: If Wash reiterates inflation risks and keeps rate hike options open, it may pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets
· Ambiguous: If Wash continues to avoid forward guidance and repeats old rhetoric, the market may be disappointed, intensifying long-end sell-offs
The market expects Wash is unlikely to release short-term policy signals but more likely to outline the overall reform of the Fed's operational mechanism. Analysts believe Wash will not provide clear commitments for the September meeting, possibly only sending a neutral to hawkish risk management signal.
📰 Hot Topic 2: US Expands Sanctions on Iran, Digital Assets Included in Key Targets
US Treasury Secretary Bassett announced Monday that new US industry sanctions aim to cut off five critical overseas financing channels for Iran, including digital assets, technology, gold trading, aviation, and maritime shipping.
This is the first time the US has explicitly included "digital assets" as a core target in sanctions against Iran, signaling the crypto industry's formal recognition in national-level financial conflicts.
However, geopolitical dynamics have subtly shifted — sources from Pakistan's military and Iran's security agencies revealed that the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire agreement, including freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, expected to be announced in the coming days.
The ceasefire expectation combined with sanctions has weakened oil prices. But Iran's Foreign Ministry stated Tehran will use all opportunities to counter Washington's economic pressure. The situation remains unclear.
💥 Liquidation Data: Over $7 Billion Short Positions Liquidated in One Week
In the past week, the total short liquidations across the market have exceeded $7 billion. In the past 24 hours, about $621 million in liquidations occurred, with short liquidations around $300 million.
Regarding whale movements, short addresses previously only 2% away from liquidation have closed 559 BTC short positions, losing about $810,000, then reversed to go long by buying 428 BTC (about $34.59 million). The long-short battle remains intense.
💰 ETF Fund Flows: Net Inflows for 7 Consecutive Days
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $314.3 million yesterday, marking seven consecutive trading days of net inflows. BlackRock's IBIT led with a net inflow of $284.4 million, with a historical total net inflow of $62.92 billion.
The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is close to $99 billion. The past week's net inflow reached $1.92 billion, the highest since October 2025.
📊 Key Levels
· BTC: Resistance 81,200-83,000, Support 78,000-78,500, Strong Support 77,000-77,500
· ETH: Resistance 2,530-2,550, Support 2,400-2,420
· SOL: Resistance 103-105, Support 95-96
💡 Summary
BTC is consolidating at high levels after breaking $80,000, still up over 21% in the past week. The Jackson Hole meeting opens tomorrow, and Wash's debut is the biggest variable this week — dovish could push BTC to 83,000-85,000, hawkish could trigger profit-taking. The US has included "digital assets" in sanctions against Iran for the first time, redefining crypto's geopolitical role.
The market will likely remain volatile before the meeting outcome; avoid heavy positions in the middle. It's safer to follow after Wash's speech clarifies direction rather than betting now.
Brothers, what do you think about the Jackson Hole meeting? Let's discuss in the comments.👇#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $ETH Good evening, friends from all over the planet. I'm Dad Dad. Here's some news: Circle launched cirBTC, marking its evolution from a single "USD stablecoin issuer" to an "institutional-level on-chain full-asset financial infrastructure." Its core logic is not simply to create a wrapped BTC on Ethereum, but to build an institutional on-chain credit and clearing closed loop of "cirBTC (high-quality collateral asset) + USDC (USD liquidity/settlement asset)" based on its own compliance and custody reputation. Strategic Intent and Core Logic: Building an Institutional On-Chain Balance Sheet Closed Loop In traditional and on-chain finance, Bitcoin is the highest quality collateral, while the US dollar stablecoin (USDC) is the most efficient liquidity carrier. Circle controls both ends, enabling market makers, hedge funds, and prime brokers to complete collateral lending, fund transfers, and clearing directly within the Circle Mint system, significantly improving capital turnover efficiency. Laying the groundwork for its own ecosystem (such as Arc chain) The underlying asset cirBTC launched Ethereum, with plans to deploy it to Circle's underlying infrastructure (such as Arc) and multi-chain network in the future. Having native compliant BTC collateral is a key piece of Circle's on-chain ecosystem moat. Since WBTC's custody structure adjustment and governance controversy, market trust in centralized encapsulated BTC has divergedThe crypto world has recently been watching the Federal Reserve, but one risk line is easily overlooked: the Bank of Japan is accelerating its rate hikes. According to the latest Reuters survey, 57% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate from 1% to 1.25% in September. Meanwhile, hawkish member Naoki Tamura will represent the Bank of Japan at Jackson Hole, while Governor Kazuo Ueda will not attend this time. Why is this related to $BTC? Because for many years, there has been a very important capital chain in global markets: borrowing yen at low interest rates ↓ exchanging for dollars or other currencies ↓ buying US stocks, bonds, crypto, and other risk assets. This is called yen carry trade, or yen carry trade. If Japan continues to raise interest rates, the cost of yen financing will rise. If the yen also appreciates, funds previously leveraged by yen will face exchange rate pressure, and some may choose to close carry positions and repay yen debt. So this isn't just Japan's own issue. For crypto, what's really worth watching isn't "just one rate hike in September and BTC will definitely fall." The expectation of a rate hike in September is already quite high, and what the market really tends to underestimate is that if Japan enters a sustained rate hike cycle, the long-standing cheap yen liquidity might gradually shrink. In the past, people were used to watching when the Fed would cut rates and when liquidity would be released again, but if it's on the other side...ETF continues to see inflows, but the market doesn't rise—I finally understand the divergence
Recently, I've been tracking the daily fund reports of BTC and ETH spot ETFs. Clearly, BTC ETFs have had consecutive days of net inflows, and ETH has also seen periodic capital entering, yet the price remains stuck below 80000, repeatedly pressured. SOL and BNB haven't experienced simultaneous surges either.
Checking on-chain data, I found that whales are taking advantage of the ETF bullish news to continuously transfer chips to exchange addresses, cumulatively moving out 4200 BTC over 7 days, which is a high-level phased cash-out. On the contract side, the 24-hour open interest remains high, with long and short positions almost evenly split. No new capital is entering; it's all existing capital competing against each other.
Bullish news doesn't mean an immediate price increase. The institutional buy orders are exactly the chips whales are selling.
I used to rush in whenever I saw good news and suffered losses multiple times when the price dropped after the bullish news landed. Now I understand: fund data must be viewed bidirectionally. Looking only at one-sided inflows can easily mislead the market view. For the market to break through, not only must there be buyers, but selling pressure must also be fully absorbed. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $ETH $SOL