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#US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait navigation talks advance
I am Brother Ci. The US is expanding financial and trade sanctions on Iran, while Qatar and other countries are pushing to resume negotiations. Both sides are engaging on the issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Sanctions escalation and diplomatic progress are happening simultaneously. Oil prices have not risen but instead fallen, as the market believes diplomacy is closer to yielding results than sanctions.
If navigation talks break through first, oil price risk premiums will continue to clear, inflation concerns will ease, and risk assets will benefit in the short term. If sanctions truly cut off Iran's oil and cross-border payment channels, energy inflation and dollar liquidity may be repriced simultaneously. BTC will rebalance between safe-haven demand and liquidity improvement. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Brother Ci has finished speaking, savor this. After Bitcoin climbed back above the $80,000 mark, market sentiment clearly heated up, and the saying "see $100,000 in September" began circulating everywhere. But looking calmly, this rally, climbing above $60,000, left little comfort zone for new entrants. The higher the price goes, the less cost-effective the chase actually becomes—this is probably a common psychological feeling among many experienced traders. This wave of upward momentum is solid, moving from the $60,000 range to around $80,000, with almost no significant pullback. Both the strength and duration of buying have exceeded many expectations. The sentiment heat can be glimpsed on social media, with bullish targets jumping from $80,000 to $100,000 or even higher, and both discussion density and optimism have returned to yearly highs. But it is precisely this consistent expectation that makes the market somewhat subtle—when everyone is focused on the same target, the bumps along the path are often overlooked. From the market structure perspective, Bitcoin's holding above 80,000 means it confirms the continuation of the medium-term trend, but short-term technical indicators have already entered overbought territory, and the price deviation from the moving average is widening. Historical experience repeatedly reminds us that after a sharp rise, it often takes time or space to digest profit-taking, and the probability of a direct V-shaped rally is not as high as sentiment suggests. More noteworthy is that Ethereum repeatedly tested near $2,500, and the effectiveness of this breakout will determine whether funds will rotate among mainstream coins going forward. On the macro level, market expectations for liquidity remain relatively loose, providing bottom support logic for risk assets. But this is also importantIn terms of derivatives structure, the long taker ratio in the past 24 hours was slightly above 51%. The total futures open interest remained at a low range just above 700,000 BTC, without the rapid leverage accumulation seen at the previous peak. However, order flow data shows active sell orders are rising, and the volume delta for multiple major coins has turned negative, indicating that both buying at highs and profit-taking are occurring simultaneously. $BTC #BTC #crypto There are two clear time points in the market this week: on Wednesday, the US July PCE inflation and personal spending data will be released, and on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote speech during his tenure at Jackson Hole. Stronger data may push up yields and suppress risk assets, while weaker data will reinforce easing expectations. This is the first substantial test for the current rebound. $BTC #BTC #加密According to CoinGlass data, over $450 million in short positions across the entire market were liquidated within 24 hours of Bitcoin breaking through $80,000, with approximately $335 million in Bitcoin shorts alone, and some statistics even higher. Short squeezes can create rapid price surges, but once leveraged positions are cleared, this forced buying disappears. Subsequent demand will need to be validated by spot and ETF support. $BTC #BTC #cryptoThe U.S. Treasury Department previously announced that starting from September 9, the single-operation cap for long-term Treasury liquidity support repos will be at least doubled from $2 billion to $4 billion. The market generally associates this round of increase with that news, believing it has lowered long-end yields and weakened the dollar. However, the long-term impact of repos on inflation expectations and the dollar remains uncertain, and it is necessary to be cautious about directly extrapolating a one-time policy into a trend. $BTC #BTC #加密The biggest crypto event of the week is set: Deribit has a total of 81,700 BTC options expiring simultaneously at 08:00 UTC on August 28, with a notional value as high as $6.44 billion. Bitcoin surged 22.9% in one week to around 78,970; this delivery will directly dominate the short-term market volatility rhythm. 1. Overview of core positions 1. Long-short position structure Call options: 44,639 | Put options: 37,061 PCR (put-call ratio) = 0.83, with call contracts in the majority. ⚠️Important reminder: A large number of call orders are not purely bullish; many are used for hedging and volatility arbitrage, so they should not be simply interpreted as a guaranteed bullish signal. 2. Two key concentrated strike prices for positions ✅$75,000: largest call position cluster, with a notional value of $236 million ✅$80,000: second most concentrated strike price, position size of $157 million Within a ±5% range of the current price, more than $500 million in options positions are involved, and market makers will significantly increase hedging trades before expiration. 2. Two main market movement logics brought by the delivery Scenario 1: Price oscillates sideways between $75,000 and $80,000 Market makers frequently buy and sell spot/futures to hedge exposure, causing the price to be "nailed" near the concentrated strike prices, with narrow fluctuations and slight volatility decline. Scenario 2: Rapid breakout above $80,000 or drop below $75,000 Passive follow-up liquidation by hedgers causes market volatility to be sharply amplified; both sharp rises and falls will be further intensified by leverage and hedging activities. 3. Volatility marketNew opportunities arise as the market settles: ZEC and HYPE
In 2026, ZEC and HYPE repeatedly hit new highs amid mainstream asset volatility. ZEC reached $888, and HYPE broke through $83. This reflects the market's shift from speculative narratives to fundamentals.
$ZEC's surge stems from the lifting of regulatory constraints. In January 2026, the SEC ended its investigation into the Zcash Foundation without enforcement, eliminating long-term regulatory risks. In August, Grayscale launched the first Zcash spot ETF, opening a compliant channel for institutions. Coupled with the upcoming NU7 upgrade vote and the return of privacy narratives, ZEC has risen over 1400% year-to-date.
$HYPE's rise is based on solid cash flow. Hyperliquid allocates about 97% of fees to repurchasing and burning HYPE, generating approximately $419 million in revenue in the first half of the year. Its on-chain perpetual contract market share rose to about 54.5%, and the platform expanded to commodities, RWA, and Pre-IPO assets. In August, Trump stated that the CFTC is advancing Hyperliquid's compliance entry into the U.S., opening up new possibilities.
Though their paths differ, both share the same destination: no longer relying on sentiment-driven speculation but building sustainable upward momentum through clear regulation, real revenue, and a closed-loop token economy. This is the fundamental reason for their counter-trend breakout amid liquidity contraction.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Gold has experienced wide and intense fluctuations at historical highs, but Citibank's latest research report poured cold water on the exuberant bulls. Citibank pointed out that the recent breakout in gold prices was mainly driven by strong speculative momentum funds in futures and other derivatives, while physical consumption and delivery demand did not keep pace. This divergence makes gold highly susceptible to macro event disturbances in the short term.
This highlights a reality that many retail investors tend to overlook: the trading nature of gold is undergoing profound transformation.
Traditionally, gold is recognized as a safe-haven asset, but with worsening fiscal deficits, US Treasury yield dynamics, and deep involvement of leveraged derivative funds, gold increasingly behaves like a macro high-beta asset highly sensitive to the US dollar trend, real interest rates, and sovereign credit risk. In the medium term, central banks' continued gold purchases and the consensus on de-dollarization remain solid ballast, but at the micro trading level, the overly crowded futures long positions could trigger a stampede-like profit-taking if expectations fail.
The market is currently holding its breath awaiting the directional signals from the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. If the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish bias, the rebound in real interest rates and the US dollar will directly cause a sharp valuation correction for highly leveraged gold bulls, and this volatility transmission will simultaneously affect hard assets like Bitcoin.
Treating speculative momentum as a safe-haven belief is often the start of losses. Before major macro decisions are announced, understanding the crowding in derivatives is far more important than blindly chasing highs.
Gold increasingly resembles a highly volatile macro asset. On the eve of the central bank symposium, will you choose to reduce leverage for defense or continue to add on dips? ETH fluctuates around 2500, institutions are buying, applications are running, what’s the outlook?
Recently looking at $ETH data, the market is quite conflicted.
US ETH ETFs have had net inflows for 7 consecutive days, averaging nearly 180 million daily. Whale staking yields about 300 million annually, more than covering costs, with large funds treating it as a long-term asset allocation.
On-chain data is awkward: ETH daily active users 640,000, Solana 2.3 million, BNB Chain 4.4 million. DeFi experiences 3% volatility triggering 36 million in liquidations, with high leverage and thin liquidity. Mainnet usage is declining, activity is moving to L2.
Funds provide a floor, but applications are dragging. There is buying pressure near 2500, limiting sharp drops, but there’s no fuel to push prices up. A bull run depends on AI agents and RWA bringing new users; just hoarding coins isn’t enough.
ETH valuation logic is changing: previously based on fees, now staking yields are stable, making it more like an interest-bearing asset. If the market accepts this, the anchor shifts from network activity to discounted cash flow.
Risks: The hotter L2 gets, the fewer fees the mainnet captures, diluting ETH’s value. In the long term, accumulation and inactivity coexist, possibly leading to a stalemate.
Short term has a floor, long term depends on applications.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 A recent news item, I think many people have underestimated its importance.
Companies like Visa, Mastercard, Circle, Cloudflare, and others have started jointly setting AI Agent payment standards.
This means the industry discussion is no longer about:
Can AI make payments?
But rather:
How should AI make payments securely.
Combined with recent data, it becomes even more interesting.
Stablecoin payments initiated by AI Agents have reached a new high this year, but the amount per transaction remains very small, mostly micro-payments for APIs, computing power, data, and so on.
I think this actually indicates the industry is laying the foundation.
When the internet first started, it wasn’t Taobao or WeChat that came first.
It was protocols like TCP/IP and HTTP.
AI Agents are the same.
What will truly matter in the future is not just which Agent is smarter, but who can enable Agents to:
Make secure payments;
Automatically settle;
Collaborate across platforms.
Recently, when I observe projects of this kind, I pay more attention to real on-chain transactions rather than just looking at coin prices.
For example:
- Whether Stablecoin usage is growing;
- Whether on-chain payments are becoming more active;
- Whether capital flow is continuously entering.
I look at all this data together on Ave.ai.
Many trends first appear in the data before they become news. "$6.4 Billion Options Set to Expire Friday: $80K Level Moves Into the Money, Why Can't the $68K Max Pain Point Pull Spot Price?"
Bitcoin options with a notional value as high as $6.44 billion and 81,700 contracts are set to expire this Friday at 4 PM.
This scale accounts for nearly 20% of the total open interest across the network.
Spot price surged past the $80K mark, yet the largest pain point on the books remains stuck at $68,000, creating a $12,000 inverse gap between the two.
The $75K and $80K strike prices have been consecutively driven deep in the money, causing market makers holding sold Calls to face huge negative Gamma exposure, forcing them to continuously buy spot to hedge, directly breaking through the max pain point.
Meanwhile, the $500 million position clustered around $80K forms a strong bidirectional pinning effect. Once the Friday expiration bell rings, the hedged spot positions will be completely unlocked. $BTC #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Dear all, the real highlight is this Friday—the debut of Federal Reserve Chair Wash at Jackson Hole.
Why is the market so nervous?
Since Wash took office, he has completely abandoned "forward guidance." After the July meeting, nothing was clarified, directly causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to soar to 5.34%, a new high since 2007. Now with US debt exceeding 40 trillion and inflation above 2% for five consecutive years, the silence is turning into an expensive noise.
What exactly is the market waiting for?
Wall Street is not looking for hawkish or dovish statements but a clear "policy reaction function"—what data will trigger rate hikes, how to view the 3.50%-3.75% interest rate range, and whether to stick to the 2% inflation target. Barclays expects Wash is unlikely to provide near-term guidance. If he still dodges the issue this time, long-term US Treasury sell-offs may intensify.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Last week, BTC rose over 30%, and gold broke 4600, reflecting a "currency depreciation trade." Rate cut expectations benefit risk assets, while rate hikes do the opposite. Currently, Polymarket shows a 55% chance of a rate hike this year, and CME shows a 45% chance of a rate hike in December.
Before Friday, PCE data will be released on Wednesday. Until these two events conclude, BTC will likely fluctuate around 80,000. The direction is positive, but don’t rush the pace; it’s better to wait for Wash to clarify before making moves. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Reports are circulating about a large BTC/ETH short by a trader nicknamed the “Trump insider,” but the claim that they “definitely know something” isn’t established.
Large wallet positions can be informative, but they don’t prove what happens next—the trader could be hedging, speculating, or simply wrong.Family! Major macro data 📢 coming tonight. 20:30 US Core PCE Price Index released ❗. This is the Fed's most valued inflation indicator, more important than CPI. Crypto traders and storage traders must keep a close eye on it. This article explains the impact of 👇 💡 the market Fundamentally. What is Core PCE? Excluding highly volatile food and energy sources, it reflects the true US inflation level ▪️. Previous: 0.1% Expected ▪️: 0.2%. ▪️ Tonight the official announcement is announced! 🔥 Three scenarios | Impact 1️on cryptocurrencies ⃣ Data significantly higher than expected (>0.2%, especially above 0.3%) 😱 Inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, market pricing in "higher interest rates to last," and even the possibility 👉 of tightening is still considered. Overall negative news! Stronger US dollar, risk capital flees. $BTC. $ETH are prone to pressure and plunges, with ⚠️ risk of insertion. Note: Only slightly above 0.2% (e.g., 0.21%) does not necessarily indicate an extreme drop 2️. ⃣ Data meets expectations (=0.2%). 😐 No new policy signals, leading to bullish and bearish competition 👉. The market is fluctuating and shakeout, with no clear direction, so prioritize observation 3️. ⃣ Data below expectations (<0.2%). 📈 Marginal cooling inflation raises rate cut expectations 👉. Liquidity expectations improve, which is positive for crypto assets ⚠️ Note: If the market has already priced in positive news, three scenarios may arise where the market cashes in and pulls back. 💾 | Impact 1️on the storage $SNDK sector ⃣ Data is significantly >0.2%. 😰 High interest rates suppress valuations of long-term stocks, while storage's strong cyclical attributes are easily sold off if the industry itself is affectedBTC Market Update｜Consolidation and Rotation, Not a Trend Reversal
$BTC currently looks more like it's repositioning at a high level rather than directly entering a downtrend. 👀
After previously breaking through $81K, BTC pulled back to around $78.6K, entering a short-term consolidation phase; ETH also retraced from recent highs to around $2.5K. Latest market data shows BTC has still risen about 23% over the past week, while ETH's gains approach 29%, with capital still concentrated in mainstream assets.
ETF inflows are also an important support. Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.92B, marking one of the best weekly performances this year, indicating institutional demand is recovering.
On the macro front, the US Treasury's expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, a weakening dollar, and market concerns over currency depreciation continue to drive funds toward assets like BTC and gold. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a drop in oil prices and easing some inflationary pressures.
So currently, I tend to interpret this movement as:
Not a trend reversal, but an internal rotation of funds within the market. 🔄
BTC is holding steady at high levels, ETH remains strong, while some altcoins are diverging, indicating capital is flowing more selectively toward strong assets.
Next, the key focus is whether $81K–$82K can be effectively broken above, and whether the $78K area can hold. If BTC reclaims this critical resistance, the market may continue to expand to higher levels; otherwise,On-chain data has once again shifted attention back to the supply side of political memes. Addresses related to $TRUMP are quietly reducing their holdings, with about 2.7 million tokens remaining, which theoretically could turn into new selling pressure at any time. As a result, the price is repeatedly suppressed by short-term moving averages near $2.469, and every attempt to rebound triggers a wave of selling pressure from above. This trend is not surprising; it is more like a game of 🧐 patience and liquidity. From a market structure perspective, the risks of such events often do not directly manifest as a crash, but first infiltrate the market as supply-inflation and then gradually erode the overall risk appetite for meme coins. When institutions and early participants choose to reduce positions during the rebound, the slope of price recovery is noticeably flattened. In other words, selling pressure itself is not scary; what is scary is that it changes capital's pricing expectations for these assets. Notably, other tokens under the same narrative framework, such as $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR, have recently received support from new capital and successfully broke through the twelve-month consolidation bottom zone. However, $TRUMP was absent from this recovery round, as funds seem to be rearranging according to the storyline rather than simply chasing the overall popularity of the same sector. This divergence often better illustrates the shifting 🌊 direction of market preferences than the rise or fall of individual tokens. When highly volatile political memes begin to shake confidence, some funds naturally shift toward more solid narrativesNVIDIA Earnings Report Released! Clear Interpretation of SanDisk's Subsequent Trend
NVIDIA's latest Q2 earnings report exceeded expectations, confirming the high prosperity of AI computing power and directly setting the tone for the subsequent market of AI storage, also revealing the core reason behind SanDisk's recent continuous adjustment.
Many wonder: The AI market hasn't retreated, so why has SanDisk continued to weaken?
The essence is not a collapse in logic, but rather an early over-expectation at high levels plus risk aversion before the earnings report. Previously, SanDisk had a huge short-term gain, combined with a weak quarterly guidance, the market took profits early, resulting in a phase of correction, which is a typical emotional and valuation-driven sell-off, not a fundamental problem.
This NVIDIA earnings report is a key turning point: AI server orders and enterprise computing capital expenditure continue to grow strongly, completely dispelling market fears of "AI demand peaking."
It should be clear: high-end AI servers cannot do without high-speed storage. SanDisk, as a core AI storage target, is deeply tied to NVIDIA's computing power industry chain. The industry's rigid demand logic is completely solid. Weakness in consumer-grade storage cycles does not affect its AI incremental performance at all.
Trend Forecast
Short term: The negative news has landed, an oversold recovery rally begins, valuation at low levels has rebound elasticity.
Mid term: Farewell to broad market decline sentiment, relying on continuous realization of AI computing orders, entering a structurally independent market.
Summary: SanDisk's earlier phase was just a high-level reshuffle, not the end of the market. NVIDIA's strong growth confirmation supports the bottom, and a secondary recovery rally in AI storage is already expected.
#NVIDIAearnings #SanDisk #SNDK #USstockanalysis #AIstorage #chipmarketI strongly agree with Murphy's observation about BTC's "realized profit–price divergence." Interestingly, this resonates with a judgment I've repeatedly mentioned before: a fairly obvious bearish divergence has appeared on BTC's 4-hour chart.
One looks at price, the other at on-chain profit behavior, but essentially they observe the same thing—the price is still rising, but the marginal momentum driving the price higher is declining.
This does not mean an immediate drop, nor does it mean one should short now. What truly deserves caution is: if BTC continues to make new highs but realized profits, trading activity, and other momentum indicators fail to simultaneously reach new highs, this kind of "bullish divergence" may strengthen continuously. The most dangerous moments in the market are often not when the trend has ended, but when the trend still appears strong while the internal momentum has quietly started to fade.
So what I’m focusing on now is not whether BTC’s next candle will go up or down, but: after a new high, is there new incremental demand?
If not, then a "small problem" could slowly evolve into a "big problem."
For now, observe first; don’t rush to conclusions. Recent position data shows a noteworthy divergence: $ETH's large long positions continue to improve, indicating that some funds are gradually increasing their bullish exposure to ETH. In contrast, $BTC's long positions have cooled somewhat, more like some traders choosing to lock in profits and reduce leverage after a rapid rebound. But what truly deserves attention is BTC's current liquidation liquidation. BTC is currently fluctuating around $78.3K, with significant potential liquidity in the $75.9K–$77.1K area below; Meanwhile, short leverage is accumulating in the $81.7K–$83.4K range. This means the market is prone to a sharp liquidity sweep. If BTC falls below $77.1K, it could trigger long stop-losses and chain liquidations, with the price further testing liquidity below. But if spot buying takes over after a rapid dip, a classic structure may form: liquidity sweep → leveraged bulls forced to exit → spot funds absorbing selling pressure → rapid rebound. Therefore, a short-term decline itself does not necessarily mean a trend reversal. More notably, on August 25, the US spot BTC ETF still recorded a net inflow of about $314.4M, with IBIT at about $284.4M; ETH ETFs also attracted about $179.8M during the same period, indicating institutional capital demand remains. 🔵 $ETH may become the focus of the next phase if BTC is short-termIf CPI is a show of face for the public, then the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) is the Fed's unshakable substance. At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the so-called Fed's own son of the inflation data is about to be released.
When the market is already on the verge of nervous breakdown from the war of interest rate hikes and cuts, this report is either a lifesaving medicine or a soul-breaking powder.
The current market expectation is that the July core PCE annual rate will remain steady at 3.3%.
Don't be fooled by the numbers—the content inside is lively:
*This inflation is not entirely the fault of fried chicken and soda. Large-scale data center construction has driven up computer hardware and software prices, and even the inflation basket has been driven up by this "Silicon Valley wind."
*Ironically, the recent surge in U.S. stocks caused asset management fees for fund managers to soar, and these expenses were included in the PCE. In other words, the hotter the stock market, the harder it is to suppress inflation.
Inflation is like dieting: the first 10 pounds are easy to lose, but the remaining 2 pounds often have to peel off. Core PCE has been above the 2% target for 65 consecutive months, and the Fed under Warsh is now under pressure like banging against a wall.
Currently, the probability of rates remaining unchanged in September is about 60%.
1. If the data > 3.3% (hotter than expected): the market will explode instantly. This means inflation is not only sticky but also resilient. The US Dollar Index (DXY) will directly break through the 100 mark, and tech stocks and cryptocurrencies are preparing for Black WednesdayThis stage is actually quite interesting. $BTC surged to around $80K→ institutional funds bought BTC first→ BTC rose about 23% → ETH started to catch up noticeably→ high-beta assets like XRP and $HYPE started to emerge→ but the altcoin market was not yet fully frenzied. In fact, the current Altcoin Season Index is only 38, indicating the market is far from the stage where "all altcoins fly together." This actually makes me feel that we are still in the early stages of capital spread, not the final frenzy. I will focus on three signals: First, whether ETH can continue to outperform BTC. BTC is responsible for attracting institutional funds; if ETH continues to outperform, it means funds are shifting from "digital gold" to "on-chain economy." BTC → ETH → $SOL / HYPE / XRP → DeFi / RWA → small- and mid-cap counterfeit → Meme. If this chain really emerges step by step, it will be a true bull market capital rotation. Second, whether ETF funds are continuing. Recently, BTC spot ETFs have seen clear capital inflows again, with the largest IBIT even rising for seven consecutive trading days. This is very important. Previously, the biggest characteristics of the crypto market were: retail investor sentiment→ leverage→ sell-offs → liquidations→ crashes. Now, there is an additional line: traditional funds → ETFs → spot → BTC/ETH → [Jiang Zhuoer: The probability of Bitcoin falling back below $67,000 is very low, ETH remains the "engine" of this bull market]
On August 26, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the B.TOP mining pool, posted that on the first U.S. stock trading day after the weekend surge, ETF fund flows became a key observation indicator. Data shows a net inflow of $314 million into Bitcoin ETFs and a net inflow of $180 million into Ethereum ETFs.
U.S. stock funds are chasing the rally, which means this round of gains is further confirmed by capital, and the probability of Bitcoin falling back below the $67,000 starting point is very low. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETF inflows amount to 57.2% of Bitcoin's, significantly higher than ETH/BTC's total market cap ratio of 18.8%. Based on this, he believes ETH will continue to act as the "engine" of this bull market.
With Trump significantly embracing blockchain and the advancement of the CLARITY Act, financial assets such as the dollar, U.S. stocks, and U.S. bonds may further move on-chain, become tokenized, and smart contract-enabled in the future. He believes this will drive more traditional financial professionals to understand and invest in the related blockchain ecosystem $BTC $ETH #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨
After breaking through $4600, international gold prices consolidated at a high level between $4630 and $4650. Citibank raised its short-term target price to $4800 and its long-term target to $5000. Meanwhile, gold ETFs increased holdings by over 28 tons in a single week, and Hong Kong's net gold exports to mainland China in July rose to 56.193 tons, both indicating that institutional and mainland physical hedging demand remains strong.
Shift in capital allocation
Institutional accumulation at high levels is not only a bet on interest rate cuts or geopolitical risks but also a long-term hedge against the expansion of U.S. debt and the decline in dollar credit.
Physical buying takes over
Although high gold prices suppress traditional gold jewelry consumption, demand for investment gold bars and currency hedging has increased, providing a solid foundation for high gold prices.
Forecast of subsequent trends
The market has largely priced in some interest rate cut expectations, with short-term risks of profit-taking and high-level consolidation.
High-probability trend
After confirming a pullback in the $4500–$4600 range, the market will continue to oscillate and build momentum amid the de-dollarization trend, aiming to surge to $4800 within the year.
Low-probability trend
If geopolitical tensions ease sharply or interest rate cut expectations are significantly disappointed, profit-taking could trigger a phase of deep correction.
Operational advice
As a long-term hedge, the logic of accumulating in batches during pullbacks remains unchanged. However, short-term chasing of highs has a low risk-reward ratio; avoid blindly leveraging at high levels.
DYOR $XAU $XAUT Coinbase recently announced the successful issuance of the first mortgage involving Bitcoin as part of the collateral structure loan with Fannie Mae in the United States. Coinbase is responsible for digital asset custody and collateral infrastructure. Borrowers can use BTC or USDC held in their Coinbase accounts as collateral to finance their home down payment without having to sell their digital assets first.
This is a two-layer loan structure. The first layer is a conventional residential mortgage that meets Fannie Mae standards. The second layer is a loan secured by BTC or USDC, used to fund part of the down payment. In other words, the risk of crypto assets is placed in the second-lien loan and custody structure, rather than directly entering Fannie Mae's core credit balance sheet.
The significance of this development lies not in the size of the first loan itself, but in advancing the long-term narrative about whether crypto assets can enter the traditional financial collateral system into an actionable policy and product prototype. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
I'm the mid-term intelligence guy, and tonight at 20:30 this PCE is the last touchstone before Jackson Hole.
The market expects overall month-on-month 0.1%, year-on-year 3.6%, core month-on-month 0.2%, year-on-year stuck at 3.3%—in other words, "month-on-month turning positive, year-on-year slowly declining," with June's -0.1% month-on-month treated as a one-off noise.
If it really falls within this range, the probability of a rate hike in September won't explode, but it won't die out either. CME currently bets 60% on no move in September and 40% on a hike; as long as the data doesn't blow up, this tug-of-war will continue.
The key is the day after tomorrow (28th at 22:00) when Waller makes his Jackson Hole debut. Upon taking office, he cut forward guidance and canceled the dot plot; his style is "less commitment, more framework."
I bet he won't give a clear path—at most, he'll reiterate that the door remains wide open until inflation returns to 2%, and mention his reforms to reduce meeting frequency and weaken guidance, kicking the ball back to the data.
So if tonight's PCE meets expectations, it gives Waller a step to "blur the path"; if core month-on-month jumps above 0.25%, Waller will be forced to say a few more hawkish words, and long bonds will move first.
Don't expect him to explicitly say whether September will see a hike. The mid-term guy only watches one thing: whether he's willing to replace "data dependence" with "conditional dependence." If he is, the path becomes half clear; if not, the market will keep guessing under 3.3% inflation.
$BTC
$ETH $BTC This round of market surge may not be a bull market restart, but rather a short-term resonance driven by loose liquidity and concentrated short squeeze.
There are two core triggers for this rebound. The first is Trump's latest public statement. Recently, he met with crypto industry executives at the White House, openly urging Congress to pass clear legislation favorable to the industry, even expressing consideration of continuing to increase Bitcoin holdings. This speech directly reversed market expectations, completely bidding farewell to the previous strong regulatory suppression atmosphere, and quickly dissipated panic among investors. Coupled with falling US Treasury yields and global liquidity easing, it laid a solid foundation for this rally.
But the key truth is that this surge is not driven by new money buying the dip, but by shorts being forced to cover. After a long period of consolidation, the market accumulated a massive amount of short positions.
After a slight market recovery, shorts were successively forced to close positions and buy back, combined with institutional ETF inflows, which rapidly propelled the market upward. Simply put: half of the rise is due to liquidity benefits, and the other half is pushed by the short squeeze.
This is also why retail investors find it hardest to profit in a surge. A true trending market rises slowly with repeated shakeouts; this kind of short squeeze rebound is characterized by rapid spikes, emotional exhaustion, and extreme volatility.
Now the entire network is unanimously calling a bull market, with sentiment fully charged. The eternal rule in trading circles: divergence creates trends, consensus signals turning points, and when everyone is euphoric, short-term risks often lurk.
Therefore, at this point, there is no need to blindly chase the bull or be overly bearish. Only mature trading cognition that understands cycles and capital logic can avoid being harvested by market sentiment. $ETH $OKB #Direct conclusion: This is not a trend reversal to bearish, don’t scare yourself.
First, the big picture. The underlying logic of this round of rally remains intact—the U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases to at least $4 billion per transaction, effectively injecting liquidity into the market; Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached about $1.9 billion in a single week, marking the best performance since last October; CryptoQuant’s "bullish score" surged from 30 to 80 within 7 days, with 8 out of 10 indicators turning bullish. Institutional analysts believe Bitcoin has exited the bear market and entered the early stage of a bull market.
But short-term overheating is also a fact. The Fear & Greed Index once hit 81, indicating "extreme greed," and a major whale realized a record profit of $614 million in a single day. Big tokens need to take a breather after a rally.
$BTC, current price 78300, daily retracement of 2.6%. The 4-hour consolidation zone is 75550-79500, with price oscillating within this range. Last week, it surged from around 62000 to 81272, so taking a breather here is very normal. Only if volume-backed support holds above 79500 and the pullback doesn’t break 78560 can bulls continue pushing higher; otherwise, it will keep grinding within the range. If it effectively breaks below 75550 and rebounds fail to reclaim 78560, then the third wave of bearish selling must be taken seriously. Keep an eye on these two levels.
$ETH, current price 2422, 4H consolidation zone 2356-2533. The 1-hour level is persistently capped at 2471, with rebound strength noticeably weaker than BTC. It has rebounded from 1870-1920 with a weekly gain of 25-30%, currently digesting profits at a high level. Bulls and bears haven’t settled yet; wait for it to choose a direction, don’t rush to take sides.
$SOL, current price 94.8, daily retracement 4.1%, 4H consolidation zone 91.6-102.7. After a previous high divergence, selling pressure remains. On-chain data looks strong—monthly transaction volume hit a record 4.2 billion, RWA holders surpassed 300,000, DeFi locked value is $10.7 billion—but price was pushed back from above 102 to around 97, indicating short-term sentiment is disconnected from fundamentals. If 91.6 fails to hold, don’t rush to catch the falling knife.
On-chain data shows some short-term whales transferring chips to exchanges; market sentiment remains in the greed zone. Sideways markets are the most exhausting—missing out won’t lose principal, if you don’t understand, just rest; holding your position carefully is the best way to avoid getting slapped back and forth.
The market is not over yet, but rhythm is more important than direction. Don’t chase highs at the top of the range, and don’t get scared out by a single bearish candle. Let the market move more, wait for clear signals before acting.Stocks are evaluated based on revenue and profit; commodities are judged by supply and demand.
But BTC, ETH, and the like do not generate cash flow themselves; most of the capital trading is a bet on future positive developments (ETF approval, crypto legislation passing, regulatory easing).
As long as officials, the SEC, the Federal Reserve, or Grayscale executives make verbal statements, it directly changes everyone's expectations for the future:
- Friendly statements → everyone anticipates that funds can enter the market compliantly in the future → scramble to accumulate and push prices up
- Strict regulatory/hawkish statements → anticipate policy tightening and capital flight → collective sell-off and price drop
Once expectations change, prices change immediately, without the need for the event to actually materialize.
2. Market structure: extremely high leverage amplifies volatility
Crypto contract leverage is widespread, with many retail investors holding leveraged positions:
Positive statements drive price up → trigger long positions to take profits and add more;
Negative statements crash the market → continuous liquidation of long positions, and liquidations further push prices down, causing a stampede-like decline
Liquidity is inherently uneven (especially in altcoins), so it doesn't take huge capital; small sell or buy orders can cause large price swings.
This is the common saying: "Once news breaks, the volatility far exceeds the actual value of the news itself."
Many policies and regulatory trends are pre-leaked to Wall Street and large market makers:
1) They accumulate chips at low prices in advance
2) Wait for official "friendly statements" to attract retail investors chasing the news
3) Institutions sell while the hype lasts, then release more cautious remarks, causing prices to fall back
This is exactly what you mentioned earlier: repeatedly blowing the wind, only speculating on expectations without realization, repeatedly harvesting retail investors. I strongly agree with Murphy's observation about BTC's "realized profit–price divergence." Interestingly, this resonates with a judgment I've repeatedly mentioned before: a fairly obvious bearish divergence has appeared on BTC's 4-hour chart.
One looks at price, the other at on-chain profit behavior, but essentially they observe the same thing—the price is still rising, but the marginal momentum driving the price higher is declining.
This does not mean an immediate drop, nor does it mean one should short now. What truly deserves caution is: if BTC continues to make new highs but realized profits, trading activity, and other momentum indicators fail to simultaneously reach new highs, this kind of "bullish divergence" may strengthen continuously. The most dangerous moments in the market are often not when the trend has ended, but when the trend still appears strong while the internal momentum has quietly started to fade.
So what I’m focusing on now is not whether BTC’s next candle will go up or down, but: after a new high, is there new incremental demand?
If not, then a "small problem" could slowly evolve into a "big problem."
For now, observe first; don’t rush to conclusions. I mentioned before that this was an extremely important post, which is why I’m quoting it and reposting the same chart.
In every major $BTC bear market, we’ve seen 3 significant lows. The third major low this cycle was the $57K low.
From both a wave count and technical perspective, it was clear that this was a potential bottoming-formation low. Historically, every previous bear cycle also formed 3 major lows, making a new low after $57K less likely from a purely fractal perspective. Today, the bears can finally eat their fill.
$BTC is currently around 78,300, down about 1.3% in 24 hours, with trading volume sharply shrinking by nearly 47%. Yesterday it briefly touched 81,200, but today it was pushed back below 80,000—a typical pump and dump.
This week actually saw a strong rise, with a weekly gain of over 22%, but today's movement shows that the selling pressure above is really heavy.
There are two key events tonight that will truly influence the coin price 👇
1. US Core PCE data
This is the inflation indicator the Fed cares about most. The market currently prices a 39.6% chance of a 25bp rate hike in September, and a 60.4% chance of holding rates steady.
• PCE beats expectations → hike probability jumps → borrowing costs for trading increase → BTC under pressure
• PCE is moderate → rates hold steady → funds willing to take risks again → testing above 80,000
2. Nvidia earnings + Fed Chair Waller's debut at Jackson Hole
On Friday, new Fed Chair Waller will speak, and the market wants to figure out which indicators the new leader focuses on. This is more important than the numbers themselves.
💡 The liquidity situation hasn't collapsed: BTC spot ETFs have had net inflows for 6 consecutive days, with $338 million flowing in on August 24 alone, and BlackRock has increased holdings for 7 straight days. Institutions are quietly accumulating at low levels.
My personal view—
Most people don't believe the bull market has arrived yet. The market is undergoing a ghost adjustment for a few days to build enough short positions, then it will explode upward again 🌏 "Overview of Core Global Financial Market Events"
📅 August 26, 2026 (Wednesday)
Bitcoin briefly broke above $81,000 yesterday, reaching a high near $81,300, then retreated to consolidate around $78,500, currently hovering near $78,500.
Weekly gains exceeded 24% from $62,800, with ETF net inflows around $1.9 billion for the week, marking the best in nearly 10 months.
The real test comes tonight and tomorrow night, first the PCE data, then Nvidia's earnings report—two events setting the tone in succession.
🌏 Macro Fundamentals and News
Federal Reserve discount rate minutes show growing internal disagreement on rate hikes
The Fed's July discount rate meeting minutes revealed that 4 of the 12 regional Fed banks voted to raise the emergency lending rate. Dallas, Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Fed all advocated a 25 basis point hike, aligning closely with the 3 dissenting votes in the FOMC.
Reuters survey: 57% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to hike again in September
A sharp rise from 5% in July, with yen carry trade reversal pressures intensifying.
New developments in US-Iran ceasefire agreement
Trump announced all mines in the Strait of Hormuz international waters have been removed and/or detonated. Russian media reports that the US and Iran have reached consensus on ceasefire terms, including freedom of navigation through the strait. Geopolitical risk premium is easing.
Meanwhile, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of US goods starting September 8, escalating trade tensions.
📈 US Stocks & Tech Updates
1️⃣ Nvidia Q2 earnings: to be released early morning August 27 (Thursday, Beijing time)
Wall Street expects revenue around $92-95 billion, up about 97% year-over-year, EPS about $2.09, with data center revenue expected near $85.7 billion. Options market prices post-earnings volatility at about ±6%, corresponding to roughly $313 billion market cap fluctuation.
The Rubin architecture is the market's key focus: whether the "Blackwell cycle" continues or "Rubin can unlock higher growth" is the key to tonight's valuation re-rating. Additionally, Nvidia has committed up to $105 billion in credit and compute support for OpenAI's Ohio data center campus; accounting disclosures on financing obligations during the earnings call will be a focal point for investors.
2️⃣ All three major US indices closed higher overnight: Dow up 0.30%, S&P 500 up 0.32%, Nasdaq up 0.66%. Nvidia rose 2.1%, AMD nearly 5%, Micron Technology over 2%, Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 1.1%.
3️⃣ US Treasury repo effect was short-lived: 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.69%, 30-year yield rebounded near 5.27%. US debt has surpassed $40 trillion, reaching the CBO's forecast two years early.
💹 Crypto Market Snapshot & Tonight's Key Events
BTC surged then pulled back, currently around $78,500-$78,800
BTC briefly broke $81,000 yesterday, peaking near $81,300, now fluctuating between $78,500-$78,800, digesting profits at high levels, market awaiting tonight's data.
🔥 Event 1: US July PCE data (Beijing time 20:30 tonight)
The Fed's most watched inflation gauge. July PCE year-over-year expected at 3.6% (previous 3.7%), core PCE expected steady at 3.3%. A mild reading would reinforce rate cut expectations, benefiting BTC to test $80,000; a surprise upside could heat up September rate hike expectations.
🔥 Event 2: Nvidia Q2 earnings (early morning August 27, Thursday Beijing time)
Coming hours after PCE data release. If earnings beat expectations, AI narrative strengthens, boosting BTC risk appetite; if below expectations, tech stocks may face short-term pressure, potentially dragging BTC down.
🔥 Event 3: Jackson Hole Symposium (August 27-29), Waller speech (Beijing time 22:00 Friday, August 28)
Bank of America warns if Waller fails to clearly outline inflation outlook and Fed policy responses under different scenarios, 30-year Treasury yield could rise to 5.5% or higher. The key is whether Waller clarifies market confusion over Treasury intervention in bond markets—dovish tilt would weaken USD and benefit BTC; hawkish tilt increases short-term correction risk.
🔥 Event 4: Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (before September 15)
Market expects the bill to pass during September session, or new regulatory rules from SEC/CFTC.
💡 Xiaolong's Perspective
Tonight is a double tone-setting night. Timeline: PCE first (20:30) → Nvidia earnings next (early Thursday) → Waller's tone on Friday. First verify inflation, then assess tech sector strength, finally Fed chair wraps up.
BTC's drop from $81,000 to $78,500 is essentially a risk-off repositioning ahead of data, not a directional reversal.
The key lies in the results of these two events tonight and tomorrow: if PCE is mild + Nvidia beats expectations, BTC could retest near $81,500; if either disappoints, short-term pullback to $76,000-$77,000 to confirm support, possibly down to around $73,500, but the medium-term bottom structure remains intact.
$80,000 is the test line; $82,000-$82,500 is the 50-week moving average—only surpassing that confirms a bull market.As of now, $BTC has firmly held the $80,000 mark, with a monthly increase of nearly 28%, marking the best monthly performance since November 2024, showing clear short-term strength. The core drivers of this rally are a weakening US dollar, declining US Treasury yields, continuous net inflows into US stock ETFs, and concentrated short covering, with multiple positive factors resonating to push the market higher.
The support logic is clear: after the 2024 halving, $BTC's inflation rate is below 1%, ensuring long-term supply scarcity; compliant ETFs continue to bring institutional spot buying, deepening market liquidity, gradually shifting from a speculative asset to a major allocation asset.
Short-term resistance is also evident: $83,000 is a strong resistance level at the annual moving average, with a large amount of trapped positions and short-term profit-taking piled up above, and the upward momentum from forced liquidations has gradually waned. The market has entered a momentum vacuum period, making high-level volatility and profit-taking very likely.
Neutral trend projection: in the short term, 1-3 months, it is highly probable to oscillate and consolidate between $75,000 and $83,000. If ETF funds continue to flow in and the Federal Reserve's easing expectations materialize, a breakout above resistance to test new highs is possible; if inflation data rebounds, US Treasury yields rise, and $ETF funds flow out, a phase of correction will occur.
The medium to long-term trend is entirely tied to US dollar liquidity and US crypto regulatory policies, with no foundation for a sustained unilateral bull market.
Have you decided your next move yet? The July PCE at 8:30 tonight (core year-on-year expected to be around 3.3%, core month-on-month about 0.2%) has already been priced in quite fully by the market. The news from Bessent about pushing the TGA close to 1 trillion, combined with increased long-term bond repos, is indeed a clear liquidity injection—fiscal side actively suppressing the long end and releasing reserves, essentially an operation with a "fiscal version of Twist/QE" flavor, which is rare in intensity these past few years. "Greater than a drop, equal to sideways, less than a surge, but ugly will also first drop then pull back" is quite reasonable in the current environment. Wash (over at Jackson Hole) wants to keep policy space, Bessent wants to stabilize US Treasury supply and demand and long-end rates, and the tacit understanding between the two is quite high. As long as the TGA can really be used on a large scale, liquidity is not just empty talk, and the market's tolerance for "ugly data" will be somewhat higher than before.
Holding onto BTC and futures without guessing the short-term direction is also a relatively comfortable approach in this kind of clear situation. The liquidity will most likely be released; whether wealth comes or not is another matter, but at least don't get washed out by short-term volatility.
Just hold steady, and after the data comes out, see the actual impact range.On-chain dormant chips continue to refresh new highs, with BTC long-term holders firmly holding their positions, but the chip situation for ETH is completely different.
Recently, a large amount of staked ETH unlocking has flowed to exchanges. This portion of chips is not a complete exit but is waiting for a market peak to perform swing trading. In other words, there is always a potential sell order hanging above ETH, and with each rally, this portion of chips will be cashed out.
The selling pressure on $BTC mostly comes from external macro shocks; the selling pressure on $ETH largely comes from internal on-chain chips. For the same upward market, BTC is driven by long-term funds, while ETH depends on the strength of swing chip cash-outs. The same holding logic cannot be applied to both.#三星巨额回报遭抛售，市场为何不买账？
Samsung really didn’t play this right.
Just a few days ago, they rolled out the most aggressive shareholder return plan in South Korean corporate history, totaling about $80 billion. Normally, this level of news would be a nuclear-level positive, but the market slapped it down hard—the stock price dropped 8.7% that day, dragging the entire Korean stock market down with it.
The highest return in history, yet the market voted with its feet. That’s interesting.
The problem isn’t the amount of money, it’s how it’s being distributed.
At the end of the day, the market doesn’t care about what you say; it only cares if you can deliver now.
What’s the current moment? The AI arms race is in full swing. Your $80 billion is a zero-sum choice between investing in expansion or handing it out to shareholders. Being vague, the market sees it as you hiding something. This script has been seen too many times in crypto—huge positive news, but the price opens down because expectations were already priced in, and when it lands, it’s all “we’ll talk about it later.”
Here’s my take.
Samsung’s misstep is a reminder for all big capital sectors: distributing money isn’t about who shouts the loudest, it’s about who can actually deliver tangible value by shrinking shares to boost cash flow. $80 billion is just a number, but if the distribution method is wrong, the market won’t just reject it, it will vote with its feet.
BTC is currently volatile. Samsung’s issue has nothing to do with BTC, but it reflects a market rule—capital is repricing "quality." The same $80 billion, buybacks and cancellations versus verbal promises, make a huge difference in today’s environment. $BTC Let's talk about the unlocking event of Hype. After all, it hit an all-time high, and I've spent a lot of time researching Hype recently. I found that even though I was heavily long on this coin, my understanding of it wasn't comprehensive enough. Although in the long run, this coin is indeed bullish (ETFs, buybacks, burns), in the short term, this coin is about to see a significant unlock. There were 14.17 million tokens on August 29 and 9.92 million on September 6. Interestingly, although there were such large monthly unlocks before, the actual selling pressure on Hype was very small. I say very small mainly because the token price keeps hitting new highs despite Hype's monthly unlocking expectation. That shows how strongly Hype's price has been maintained. However, I still have some observations: 1. For the unlock event on the 29th of each month, generally, (in most cases) there will be consecutive declines in the three days before and after the 29th. If there is no drop before the 29th, then a drop is very likely after the 29th; If the price is mainly falling before the 29th, then after the 29th, there may be a slight pullback before the rise. 2. For the unlock event on the 6th of each month, if the 6th is a relative peak, after the 6th it is basically mostly a decline. In terms of personal trading: Before the 29th, since Hype has already risen significantly with Bitcoin and continues to push higher, ETF funds are also net inflows, and daily buyback amounts are increasing, making short selling somewhat challengingThe sectors leading the gains today are actually different slices of the same narrative: moving real assets and uncertainty onto the blockchain, paired with tools for pricing and hedging them. The targets, pricing, and entry points are all named simultaneously, which is no coincidence. But the nature of the capital must be clearly understood. USDT market cap has remained almost unchanged in 24h (-0.01%), indicating no new money is coming in; meanwhile, the entire market is down -3.72%, and BTC dominance has dropped to 59.2%. The conclusion is straightforward: existing funds are being pulled out from large caps and BTC and squeezed into these few narrow sectors—it's a relocation, not an increase. The fear and greed index rose from 46 to 65 over the week, with sentiment running ahead of money. Judgment: This is a blood-drawing rotation, sustained by sentiment rather than capital, and the volatility in these narrow sectors will be steeper than it appears on the surface. End signal (can be verified by yourself): USDT market cap continues not to grow, while BTC dominance turns upward from 59.2%—the existing funds start to shrink back, and this round is over. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
The boss has something to say
At the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions and negotiations are happening simultaneously.
The US has expanded financial and trade sanctions, including digital assets, gold, and shipping under secondary sanctions. Meanwhile, Qatar is pushing US-Iran talks, and Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary joint channel and joint mine clearance.
Both tracks are proceeding independently. Oil prices have chosen the negotiation direction for pricing, with WTI falling below $80. The diesel crack spread has been continuously falling from a high of $102, indicating the market is gradually digesting the tightest supply expectations.
The sanction logic hasn't disappeared; it is just temporarily suppressed by negotiation expectations. If the talks make substantial progress, oil prices will continue to fall, inflation expectations will cool down, which is positive for risk assets. If sanctions truly cut off Iran's oil and cross-border payment channels, oil prices will rebound again. $BTC $ETH $SOL
This game is still dynamically evolving, and the direction is uncertain. Bitcoin is fluctuating around 80000, all long positions have been closed waiting for a pullback. No heavy directional bets before PCE and Wash's speech.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck. and if the current momentum continues, many of those short positions could face serious pressure. This move looks very different from the previous rebounds. Instead of being driven mainly by leverage and a sudden short squeeze, the latest recovery appears to be supported by stronger spot demand and more sustained buying interest. Bitcoin has pushed back toward the $84,000–$86,000 zone, while market sentiment still hasn’t reached the extreme levels usually seen during full-blown retail FOMO. ThaOn the eve of the earnings report release, $MRVL surged to $240.38 in a single day, with capital pushing the valuation just below the resistance level in advance, as both bulls and bears hold their breath in a standoff before the event window.
The market rose 4.84%, approaching the $247 resistance zone above, with investors concentrating their bets on the upcoming Q2 earnings announcement.
The renewed risk appetite in the market is mainly driven by AI network demand and expectations of potential large custom chip orders.
This strong expectation-driven position buildup makes the market's tolerance for earnings guidance very low; any slight discrepancy will quickly translate into profit-taking pressure.
If the custom chip and network business guidance in the earnings report exceeds expectations, the stock price is likely to break through the $247 resistance and attempt to hold above the $250 mark.
If management adopts a cautious tone on next quarter's order outlook, concentrated profit-taking will trigger a price pullback, testing the $236 support level.
If the price falls below $236 and fails to recover in the short term, it indicates that the event-driven buying momentum has been broken.
The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours is the specific guidance on the custom chip business during the earnings call after the report release.
#三星巨额回报遭抛售，市场为何不买账？ #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the US will release July PCE inflation data. The market consensus expects overall PCE to rise 0.1% month-on-month and fall to 3.6% year-on-year, while core PCE increases 0.2% month-on-month and remains steady at 3.3% year-on-year. June figures were negative 0.1%, 3.7%, 0.1%, and 3.3% respectively. I matched the July CPI, PPI, import prices, and Cleveland Fed's forecasts, and my judgment was slightly warmer than the market. I forecast overall PCE to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, core PCE by 0.3% month-on-month, with year-on-year growth around 3.6% to 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively. Overall, the PCE is not too outrageous. In July, energy prices fell 1.5% month-on-month, and gasoline fell 2.9%, which will weigh down the overall figures. Core PCE, however, has several easily overlooked items: asset portfolio management prices rose 6.5%, hospital outpatient services rose 0.9%, and their impact in PCE is more pronounced than in CPI. Air passenger traffic fell 3.4%, and securities brokerage and investment consulting declined 0.8%, partially offsetting some of the gains, but not enough to push core PCE back below 0.2%. The latest forecast from the Cleveland Fed is also stuck at this level, with overall PCE up 0.15% month-on-month and core PCE up 0.25% month-on-month. BEA only displays one decimal place, so 0.25% stands exactly at the edge of rounding. If the original data moves slightly, the screen could change from 0.2% to 0.3%. Core PCE will not exceed 0.2%, and US Treasury yields and the US dollar are likely to fall,#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold? Many only see the excitement of BTC breaking 80,000, but fail to understand the deepest and most enduring policy bottom of this bull market.
This market cycle is not simply driven by capital speculation; it is a complete implementation cycle of the U.S. top-level policies gradually loosening restrictions and institutionalizing the acceptance of crypto assets. This long-term logic is the core foundation supporting this major bull market.
Looking back at the entire key policy timeline, it is a solid process of institutional liberalization:
May 2025
The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) officially removes the extreme restrictions from the Biden era.
Previously, all U.S. pensions and corporate 401(k) plans were forced to strictly avoid crypto assets. The new regulation abolishes the ban and adopts a neutral stance: neither encouraging nor prohibiting, leaving the decision entirely to institutional fiduciaries, completely breaking the official one-size-fits-all suppression.
August 7, 2025
Trump signs the landmark Executive Order 14330.
This formally includes digital assets into the U.S. alternative asset system, making them a legal investment category alongside private equity, real estate, and commodities.
At the same time, it requires the SEC and the Department of Labor to comprehensively review old regulations and reduce compliance litigation risks, clearing institutional obstacles for large pension funds to allocate crypto assets.
March–April 2026
The U.S. Department of Labor implements the latest draft rules, releasing the most critical safe harbor mechanism.
As long as institutions assess risks, liquidity, and fees through formal procedures, allocating crypto assets will be exempt from employee lawsuits and liability.
This step effectively opens a compliant entry channel for U.S. trillion-dollar pension funds.
Completing this entire process means:
Crypto assets have transformed from "risk assets suppressed by regulation" to "officially recognized, compliant, investable, and institutionally allocable assets" in the U.S.
ETFs represent visible incremental growth, but the loosening of the 401(k) pension system is the super long-term lifeblood for the coming years.
The policy foundation is now fully established, but large-scale corporate and institutional allocations are still gradually being implemented.
Short-term market movements depend on sentiment and volatility, but the mid-to-long-term trend has already been completely rewritten by top-level policies.
Understanding this main line makes it clear:
This bull market is far from over.
$BTC
#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold?
#Crypto market top-level policy dividends continue to be implemented👀 $ETH IS OUTPERFORMING $BTC BUT IS THIS REALLY ALTSEASON?
Ethereum is starting to show serious relative strength against Bitcoin.
The ETH/BTC ratio has climbed more than 32% from its June low, reaching a seven-month high.
That's an important development.
But there's a mistake I don't want to make:
ETH strength doesn't automatically mean altseason has arrived.
The broader market data still tells a different story.
Bitcoin Dominance remains above 60%, while the Altcoin Season Index has fallen to around 39, down sharply from roughly 67 at the beginning of the month.
That suggests capital is still concentrated.
Right now, the rotation appears to be happening primarily between BTC and ETH, rather than flowing broadly across the altcoin market.
And that's a major distinction.
🟠 BTC → 🔵 ETH ≠ ALTSEASON
If Bitcoin rallies and Ethereum starts outperforming, that's the first stage of a potential rotation.
But for a true altseason, we'd want to see that strength spread further:
BTC → ETH → large-cap alts → mid-caps → smaller caps.
We're not seeing that broad participation yet.
Yes, individual coins are pumping hard.
Yes, some sectors are showing impressive momentum.
But isolated pumps aren't enough to declare an altseason.
The real confirmation would be sustained outperformance across a much larger portion of the altcoin market.
📊 WHAT I'M WATCHING
ETH/BTC: Can Ethereum maintain its relative-strength breakout?
BTC Dominance: Does it finally start breaking lower?
Altcoin Season Index: Can it recover and show broader participation?
Altcoin breadth: Are more tokens consistently outperforming BTC and ETH?
Until those pieces start aligning, I'm staying cautious with the label.
The setup is getting more interesting.
ETH is clearly becoming stronger.
Capital is beginning to rotate.
But the money hasn't fully reached the rest of the market yet.
So yes, enjoy the altcoin pumps.
Just don't confuse a few strong performers with a confirmed altseason.
The rotation may be starting but the broad altseason still needs to prove itself. 👀📈Iran Sanctions, Talks & Crypto
Iran–Oman talks are reviving hopes of a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor, sending oil lower and easing immediate inflation fears. At the same time, Washington has expanded sanctions targeting Iran-linked networks, keeping geopolitical risk elevated
$BTC is holding near $79K, while $ETH remains around $2.5K. If diplomacy advances,falling oil and softer risk premiums could support crypto. But renewed escalation or tighter sanctions could quickly reverse sentimentHYPE at $83, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: from $50 soaring all the way to $83, retail investors FOMO shouting "100 is not a dream."
In the past month, it surged over 60%, and after Trump named it, it pulsed 11%-25% in a single day. There is no historical trapped position in the price discovery zone, and the candlestick chart looks textbook perfect. Weekly/daily bullish alignment, MA5/10/20/50/100/200 all below the price, the trend is intact, but the short-term position is extremely poor.
First thing: Trump named it, opening the CFTC compliance gateway.
Around August 19, Trump publicly stated that the CFTC is introducing Hyperliquid into the US in a "fully compliant, legal" manner. Once the news broke, HYPE jumped from 50-60 directly to 80+, with a single-day pulse of 11%-25%.
Hyperliquid is transforming from a "crypto wild card" into a "US compliant perpetual gateway." The market is not buying a license that has already landed but an option for "US institutional funds about to flood in."
Trump’s shout can push it up 30%, but you can’t expect him to shout every day.
Second thing: AQAv2 buyback has started, but the unlocking bomb is also coming.
Starting August 26, AQAv2 officially began accruing interest and directing towards buyback and burn, expected to convert a large portion of USDC reserves’ earnings into HYPE buybacks. Plus, the protocol itself has daily transactions worth billions, fee income crushing top-tier public chains, and 99% of fees going back to buyback and burn—triple buying pressure channels stacked, the fundamentals are indeed strong.
But on August 29, 14.18 million HYPE will unlock, about $1.2 billion in volume.
Historical post-unlock performance: -7%, +1%, -14%, mixed ups and downs but never "ignoring unlock and surging."
Third thing: Today there’s PCE + GDP, Friday Jackson Hole.
Today (August 26) US July PCE (Fed’s most watched inflation indicator) + Q2 GDP revision, Friday new Fed Chair Warsh’s first keynote speech. The macro backdrop is: BTC just rebounded from weekly and gave back profits at 78K-81K, USD, US bonds, tariffs all making noise.
HYPE outperformed the market this week, but its Beta is not low. Cooler PCE + dovish Warsh → surge to 84-87; hotter PCE + hawkish Warsh → first drop to 80, deep to 77-78.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
Trump named CFTC compliance entry to US, institutional channel expected to open
AQAv2 buyback started + protocol fee buyback, triple buying pressure
Weekly/daily bullish alignment, trend intact
No historical trapped positions above after breaking previous high 75-77
On the other side:
83 is already the historical high, short-term overbought + crowded chase
$1.2 billion unlocking bomb on August 29, countdown 3 days
Today PCE + GDP, Friday Jackson Hole, huge macro uncertainty
Funding rate not extreme but OI not low, dual sell-off near 83 is normal
Resistance above: 83.5-84 (breakout confirmation) → 85-87.5 → 90 → 97-100
Support below: 81-82 (ultra-short defense) → 78.5-80 (first pullback zone) → 75-77 (last trend long defense) → 73
Trading strategy
Conservative players (recommended):
Wait for pullback to 78.8-80.2 to stabilize (4H volume stop drop), light position long test
Daily close above 83.8 chase breakout, stop loss 81.5
Targets in batches: 85.5/87.5/90. Cut position below 77, exit below 75.
Short-term players:
Only do high sell low buy small swings at 83, range 80-83.8. Reduce position and take profit at 83.3-83.8, buy again at 79.8-80.5.
How to handle existing positions:
Cost below 70: reduce 30%-50% near 83, take back principal
Cost 78-81: prioritize break-even, move stop loss to 77.5-78
Cost 82.5+: either strict stop loss at 80.8 or reduce to minimal position and wait for unlock to reassess
Short positions not recommended to blindly short; if shorting, only as overbought correction: light short if rebound fails at 83.5-84, targets 81/79.5, stop loss 84.3.
Next 72 hours trading script
Cooler PCE + BTC holds above 79K: HYPE first surges to 84-86, may still pull back before unlock
Hotter PCE / hawkish Warsh: first drop to 80, deep to 77-78—that’s a better mid-term buy point, not a liquidation point
Flat data + unlock panic brewing: sweep back and forth 80-83, whoever chases gets hit
I remain bullish on HYPE mid-term—the protocol income and regulatory options are still there.
But 83+ unlock + PCE/Jackson Hole stacked together is a typical "good asset, bad position."
It’s not that HYPE is bad, it’s that you always chase at the highest point and cut at the lowest.
What is your HYPE cost?
At 83, do you dare to chase?
$BTC $ETH $HYPE NVIDIA Earnings Report: Cheap, but Not Necessarily Going Up
After the market closes tonight, NVIDIA will release its Q2 results for fiscal year 2027. Revenue is expected to be about $92 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share around $2.09.
In the past eight quarters, NVIDIA has beaten expectations every time, but the stock price fell after six of those earnings reports. In the last four quarters, it has without exception closed lower.
Beating expectations is just the baseline; the market has long moved beyond focusing solely on the numbers.
Valuation isn’t expensive, but that itself is a signal
NVIDIA’s current forward P/E ratio is about 24x, only slightly higher than the S&P 500’s 21x. The forward P/E once dropped to around 18x, which is historically rare for a company whose revenue is still doubling.
Among 82 Wall Street analysts, 78 have buy ratings, with an average target price implying about 50% upside. Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Bank of America have all recently reiterated buy ratings.
But the problem is: since August, the stock price has already rebounded over 12%, so the positive news may have been priced in. Goldman Sachs also clearly stated that excellent earnings alone are not enough to drive the stock price higher; additional catalysts are needed.
Cheap doesn’t mean it will rise; the past four quarters’ performance has already proven this.
What the market is really waiting for are Jensen Huang’s answers to four questions
1. Customer concentration: Five or six ultra-large customers contribute nearly half of revenue. In Q1, ultra-large sales were 37.9 billion, while other enterprise customers (ACIE) were 37.5 billion, but ACIE grew 31% quarter-over-quarter, far exceeding the ultra-large customers’ 12%. The market wants to hear evidence that AI demand is spreading to a broader range of industries.
2. $500 billion financing plan: NVIDIA has partnered with six major financial institutions to leverage third-party capital to provide financing for customers to purchase GPUs. Details are limited, and the market worries whether this truly expands real demand or is "circular financing" to maintain growth. The earnings call must provide a clear explanation.
3. Rubin supply bottleneck: The next-generation Rubin is seen as the next growth engine, but HBM memory shortages may limit deployment scale. Demand is not the problem; supply is.
4. Competitive landscape: AMD launched the MI450X, and ultra-large customers are also expanding self-developed chip deployments. Whether NVIDIA can hold its market share is a core variable for long-term valuation.
Any one of these four points falling short of expectations could trigger a 5% to 7% downward move — which is exactly what the options market is currently pricing in.
Short-term vs. long-term distinction
In the short term, post-earnings movement heavily depends on the confidence conveyed during the earnings call. Historical patterns suggest the post-earnings period may be a better buying opportunity than before earnings.
In the long term, AI infrastructure construction is still in its early stages, and NVIDIA’s narrative remains intact. The current valuation already incorporates a considerable degree of cautious expectations. If Jensen Huang can clearly address the four questions above, any short-term fluctuations may just be noise.
The core message is this: If you believe AI is only halfway through its journey, valuation is secondary; if you only want to play short-term numbers, history tells you it might be more prudent to wait until after the earnings report.
Tonight, the numbers are just the appetizer; the earnings call is the main course.
$NVDA #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 #Strategy increasing issuance to expand cash, BTC allocation rhythm under attention #BTC breaks through 80000 USD, can it hold the new threshold? Good evening everyone! Have you eaten?
$BTC BTC
Limited real utility, transfer and store of value are the only practical functions, no support for any application operation. Most of its price comes from psychological premium: global participants collectively believe it is a digitally scarce asset.
This premium comes from a simple narrative: fixed total supply, tamper-proof. Ordinary investors and institutions don’t need to understand complex technology, just accept the concept of “digital gold” to participate. The weakness of the premium is that it is not directly verified by real-world productive activities, no business can prove how much it should be worth. As long as the social collective belief remains unchanged, the premium will be maintained; once belief weakens, the premium shrinks rapidly. It doesn’t make money through functionality, it makes money through collective faith.
$ETH ETH
Has both real utility and psychological premium. Real utility is carrying all on-chain economic activities like DeFi, NFT, RWA, with many contracts running genuinely, producing real transactions daily, visible utility. Psychological premium comes from the imagination of a future “global decentralized infrastructure.”
The contradiction is that utility and token revenue are decoupled. Many transactions move to L2, ecological utility keeps expanding, but value captured by the mainnet is diverted, tokens cannot fully benefit from ecological growth. The market pays for current on-chain business and also for the grand long-term story. Once the long-term story is disproved, psychological premium will fade, but underlying real utility remains, so it won’t lose all value. Therefore, when ETH falls, it loses the fantasy part but still has real business as a bottom support.
$SOL SOL
Real utility focuses on high-frequency, low-cost transactions, with excellent on-chain interaction experience, but currently most utility serves Meme and short-term speculation. Its psychological premium comes from the imagination of a “new generation high-performance public chain.”
A large part of real utility is pseudo-demand created by speculation; as long as hype exists, transaction volume is high; when hype disappears, on-chain activity cools rapidly. Its premium heavily depends on the market’s imagination of a “new public chain disruptor.” Once the new narrative fades and no solid essential business remains, psychological premium will clear quickly. Compared to ETH, its real essential demand base is thinner, and price relies more on imagined premium.
The essential differences among the three: BTC is almost entirely consensus premium; ETH is a dual premium of real business plus future narrative; SOL mainly relies on new technology imagination premium, with a weak real essential demand base.
Currently rising, all three contain a large amount of psychological premium. The key to future differentiation: BTC depends on whether consensus can continue; ETH depends on whether ecological value can be transmitted to the token; SOL depends on whether speculative traffic can be converted into long-term real essential demand. If driven only by premium, once sentiment recedes, valuation contraction will follow. Seeing that about 1.33 million UNI have net flowed out from exchanges in the past 7 days, the simplest conclusion is "whales are buying." But if we continue to track the addresses, this conclusion doesn't hold.
In the same monitoring set, over 30 days there is a net inflow of about 1.81 million UNI, which is the opposite direction of the 7-day flow. Among the 7-day outflow, about 460,000 UNI follow a path of "external address receiving funds, then approximately equal amounts consolidated back to known exchanges within 24 hours," which looks more like pending recharge transfers and should not be double-counted as buying.
Looking at the large outflows over 90 days: 7 receiving addresses have collectively received about 48.53 million UNI, but the verified entity resolution rate is 0%. Two high-frequency Binance receiving addresses accounted for about 86% of the outflow, then dispersed most of the funds to over 1,200 downstream addresses each. They may be untagged internal wallets, consolidation, routing, or market-making infrastructure; currently, there is no evidence proving they are independent whales.
Another OKX receiving address has been observed to directly return about 3.03 million UNI back to known exchanges. This also shows that "withdrawal from exchanges" is only the starting point of the path, not a conclusion about holding positions.