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Regarding the future trend of $SOL, there is currently an interesting "split" in the market: the long-term technical outlook is highly optimistic, but short-term price forecasts are relatively calm, even slightly downgraded. This reflects the tug-of-war between the grand narrative of technical upgrades and the market fundamentals.
📈 Core bullish logic: the shift from "hype" to "utility"
Institutional long-term confidence is mainly based on Solana moving away from a speculation-driven phase toward real applications:
· Nuclear-level technical upgrade: The Alpenglow consensus upgrade is expected to be deployed in Q3-Q4 2026, which can reduce the final transaction confirmation time from 12.8 seconds to 100-150 milliseconds. Combined with the Firedancer client, which already reduced block time from 400ms to 200ms in Q3, this will clear obstacles for high-frequency DeFi and payments.
· Fundamentals have been "reborn": The narrative core is shifting from a "meme chain" to an "institutional chain." For example, the total assets of the US spot Solana ETF have exceeded $1 billion, the market value of real-world assets (RWA) on Solana has reached $2.01 billion, and real economic activities such as stablecoin transfers are becoming increasingly active.
🎯 How do institutions view the price? — Cautious short-term, aggressive long-term
Despite strong long-term logic, institutions are more conservative than expected about this year's price forecasts:
· Standard Chartered Bank: Just lowered the year-end 2026 target price from 250**. The reason is that the network is transitioning from highly volatile meme coin trading to more stable but "slow-earning" stablecoin payments, and this process takes time.
· Meta AI and ChatGPT: Based on recent AI forecasts, the year-end target price is around 210, mainly betting on the value re-evaluation brought by the successful landing of Alpenglow.
· Headwinds: Institutions like Binance expect the overall market progress in 2026 to be "uneven," and if the Alpenglow upgrade fails or on-chain activity shrinks, the price may fall back to the 60 range.
In summary, the future of $SOL is more like a "call option": if key technologies like Alpenglow are delivered on schedule and institutional adoption continues, the long-term value is huge; but in the short term, constrained by market volatility and narrative shifts, it is difficult to achieve a breakthrough all at once. July PCE slightly exceeded expectations, $BTC fell from 81K to 78K. Inflation stickiness hasn't disappeared, and rate hike expectations have risen again.
The data itself isn't explosive, but exceeding expectations is exceeding expectations. The market is repricing the rate hike path, and risk assets fall first as a sign of respect. This rally from 60K to 81K was driven by ETF inflows and short squeezes, not rate cut expectations. The macro headwinds remain, don't mistake the rebound for a reversal.
In the short term, watch if 78K holds; in the long term, wait for Powell's speech to set the direction. At this level, watch more and act less, wait for the wind to come.#BTC surges then falls back, options expiry amplifies key level battle
After BTC briefly broke through the $80,000 mark, the market quickly pulled back and has now returned near the critical battle zone.
Looking back at this rally, data from K33 Research provides a crucial clue: this round of surge saw the largest single-day short squeeze in recorded history. Subsequently, futures open interest dropped significantly, clearly indicating short covering was a major driving force behind the earlier price surge.
At the same time, incremental market signals cannot be ignored. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.92 billion last week, indicating that off-exchange incremental funds have entered the spot market. However, after the price surged sharply in a short time, profit-taking at high levels began to stir, with many holders cashing out gains, adding selling pressure to the upward trend.
An important upcoming date to watch is August 28, when BTC options worth approximately $6.44 billion will expire. A large number of positions are concentrated in the $75,000–$80,000 range, and this massive options expiry is very likely to amplify short-term market volatility.
As the gains from the short squeeze gradually fade, the future market direction hinges on the strength of spot buying support. Whether ETF funds and spot buyers can steadily absorb the selling pressure emerging at high levels will be the watershed in determining if this rally is a new trend recovery or merely a temporary rebound. AI monetization is starting to look less like a single-layer chip story and more like a widening enterprise stack. NVIDIA doubled Q2 revenue year over year and projected about 70% growth for FY2028, even as supply constrained deliveries. Meanwhile, Salesforce AI ARR neared $4B, CrowdStrike delivered record net new ARR, and Synopsys raised its outlook, while slower Okta orders show the trend is not universal.
My read: the strongest signal is not headline growth alone, but AI spending appearing across infrastructure, design tools, and recurring software demand. Marvell now offers a useful test of whether networking can extend that breadth into orders and cash flow. Not advice, just analysis.
#AIMonetizationBroadensThe latest data has not given the market a clear direction, making it harder to predict the Fed's next move. Core PCE was about 3.2% year-on-year, up 0.3% month-on-month; Overall PCE rose year-on-year to 3.6%. Meanwhile, the annualized GDP growth rate for the US in the second quarter remained at 1.6%. Inflation remains sticky, and economic demand has not significantly cooled, making it difficult for the Fed to receive a signal of "trustworthy rate cuts" for now. Market interest rate expectations also experienced brief fluctuations. After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from about 34% to 41%, then fell back to 34%–35%. The market is still pricing in at about a 70% chance of at least one rate hike this year. Therefore, the real focus is on Friday. 👀 Warsh will make his debut as Federal Reserve Chair at Jackson Hole and deliver a key speech at 10 a.m. on Friday. The conference theme is: "Financial Innovation: The Impact of Payments and Monetary Policy." With the advancement of the GENIUS Act and the stablecoin market approaching $320B, the market will closely watch his statements on inflation, financial innovation, dollar liquidity, and future monetary policy. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury plans to expand the scale of long-term liquidity-supported repos, further strengthening market attention on inflation, fiscal deficits, and dollar risk hedging. 📊 Safe-haven funds are flowing into both BTC and gold • August BTC spot ETF net inflows have surpassed $3.2B • Cumulative net inflows have approached $5#黄金ETF大额吸金, how can safe-haven funds reallocate $XAUT In the past couple of days, when I opened the market trading software, gold prices surged again. As of noon on August 27, London gold spot prices were about $4,686 per ounce, COMEX gold futures were $4,684.7, a new high since May; domestically, Shanghai gold Au99.99 was quoted at 999.5 yuan/gram, just one step away from the 1,000-yuan mark. Since August, international gold prices have risen about 14%, heading toward the strongest single month since 1999. But to be clear: although this round of rally is fierce, it is still about 17% short of the historical high of $5,626 at the end of January this year, which counts as a "strong recovery" but not a "new legend." Voices of "hoarding gold" have started rising again in social circles—is it to catch the fast train now or to buy at the top? Why this wave of gains? First, the Federal Reserve's expectations have reversed. The US nonfarm payroll unexpectedly grew by 23,000 in July, while the "small nonfarm" ADP rose only 44,000. Market expectations for further rate hikes cooled rapidly, and the US dollar index fell from 101 to around 99. Gold is the opposite of the dollar; when the dollar loosens, gold prices rise. Second, global central banks are buying real money. According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2026, global central banks net purchased 289 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 62%, setting a new record for the same period; China's central bank has increased holdings for 21 consecutive months. Central banks' gold purchases are "major shareholder buybacks," continuously moving physical gold out of circulation, a very solid bottom. Third, dollar credit revaluation. The U.S. Treasury balance has exceeded $39 trillion, "de-dollar."#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元
A first-day trading volume of $14.8 million is not bad for an altcoin ETF, but this number is heavily inflated—ZCSH was directly transferred from a 2017 private trust, managing over $300 million in assets before listing. This is not "new money entering the market," but "old wine in a new bottle."
ZCSH's predecessor was the Grayscale Zcash Trust, established in October 2017, holding about $155 million worth of ZEC by the end of June. On the first day of listing, it held 387,849 coins valued at around $300 million. The $14.8 million trading volume represents only about 0.5% of the existing holdings being traded.
Intraday, it rose over 3.5% at one point but closed down 1.54%. This is a typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario—ZEC had already surged 70% in the past week, reaching an eight-year high of $867, and the ETF launch triggered profit-taking. After listing, ZEC dropped about 8%.
Arthur Hayes called for a $1000 target price last October, but he had already exited after the Orchard vulnerability in June. The 2.5% management fee is ten times that of Bitcoin ETFs; Grayscale itself calls this a "high-risk satellite position."
The ETF is just moving the old trust onto the US stock market, not new funds chasing the rally. Whether ZEC can hold above $800 depends not on the ETF listing as a one-time catalyst, but on whether the privacy narrative can sustain trading volume into the next quarter.$6.4 billion options expiry + nonfarm revision + Walsh speech, this week's volatility won't be small
Three events are converging. On August 28, $6.44 billion worth of BTC options expire, with the largest open interest between 75,000 and 80,000. Both bulls and bears will make their final plays within this range. The closer the price gets to this range, the more intense the volatility caused by gamma hedging and settlement actions will be.
At the same time, the initial benchmark revision for nonfarm employment is released — the previous value was -862,000, and the market expects it might be revised down further. Last year's nonfarm data was repeatedly revised, and the market has been shaken. If this benchmark revision continues downward, the weakness in the labor market will become clearer, which could actually increase rate cut expectations, a positive for crypto.
But the real highlight is Walsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. The PCE just came out, core inflation is still 3.3% with no decline, GDP growth is only 1.5%, and employment data is weakening. How he prioritizes these data points will anchor the September rate decision. If he clearly leans dovish, BTC has a chance to surge to 80,000 again; if he continues to be evasive, the market will keep trading sideways or even pull back.
I haven't changed my position during this period; my bias is bullish but I won't rush in before these three events unfold. Volatility is an opportunity, but the premise is not to get shaken out during the swings.📊
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配
Latest Data
SPDR Gold ETF has recently seen continuous large net inflows, with gold prices holding steady near $4640; $BTC 80572, ETH 2494, SOL 100.6. Some of the risk-averse funds are allocated to physical gold, while some use BTC as digital gold for hedging.
Market Consensus
In the past, risk-averse funds only bought gold, but now institutions are starting a dual-track layout. Scarce inflation-resistant assets are more favored, though it is uncertain whether this enthusiasm will extend to the crypto market.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Essentially, concerns about US dollar debt and inflation are rising, and funds are engaging in "currency depreciation trades." Gold is the traditional safe haven, $BTC is a highly elastic alternative; gold seeks stability, while the crypto space chases returns. However, macro uncertainties remain, and if the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance, both asset types are prone to short-term sell-offs.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally inclined to a gradual bull market return, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
Gold strengthening is a positive sentiment for crypto but cannot be directly taken as a guarantee of price increases. Do not blindly increase positions based on this news; hold existing positions well and continue to closely monitor volatility from the Jackson Hole speech.#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
NVIDIA's earnings far exceed expectations! The AI dividend officially spreads from hardware to software
With the release of the Q2 earnings report, NVIDIA once again delivered a market-shaking performance.
The earnings data shows NVIDIA's Q2 revenue doubled year-over-year, with the data center business maintaining rapid growth, and it rarely provided a forward-looking guidance of about 70% revenue growth for FY2028. Behind these impressive results, production capacity bottlenecks remain an unavoidable constraint, as strong market demand is currently limited by the available delivery and supply capacity.
The market trend is also undergoing a critical shift. In the past, capital chased the AI track simply based on whether companies had AI business layouts; now the evaluation standard has switched: the core measure of value is whether AI technology can truly be converted into real orders, user renewals, and positive cash flow.
This story of profit realization no longer belongs only to chip hardware manufacturers.
Salesforce's AI products approach $4 billion in annual recurring revenue; CrowdStrike's new annual recurring revenue hits a historic high; Synopsys raises its full-year performance forecast; a host of software companies are entering the AI revenue realization phase. The AI return dividend is successfully extending from the GPU hardware side to the enterprise software side comprehensively.The Asia Bitcoin Conference is in full swing
"Consumption has stopped, inflation hasn't come down," will Warsh support a rate hike on Friday?
On the evening of August 26, the US July PCE data was released — year-on-year 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, marking the 65th consecutive month above the Fed's 2% target. Core PCE year-on-year was 3.3%, also stubbornly not falling.
After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from 36% to 42%-44%. The dollar posted its largest gain in nearly four weeks. The three major US stock indexes all plunged.
Just one day before the PCE announcement, BTC had just touched $81,237, breaking $80,000 for the first time since May. It rose from $62,800 to $78,900 in ten days, a 25% increase, marking the best ten-day gain since 2026.
Then what? An inflation report wiped out about $2,000 of Bitcoin's gains within hours.
Currently, BTC is struggling around $78,000.
Breaking down the "two extremes" of the data truth
🔥 The hot side (inflation):
PCE year-on-year 3.7%, 65 consecutive months above 2%
Core PCE year-on-year 3.3%, also stubbornly not falling
Excluding housing service prices, prices rose faster than in June
🧊 The cold side (economy):
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending — zero growth
Real personal consumption expenditure flat month-on-month
Real income year-on-year rose only 0.2%, after several months of negative growth [data]
In plain language:
Five years of cumulative price increases have completely eaten away Americans' purchasing power. They have no money left, but prices keep rising.
The New York Times gave a restrained comment: "The stubborn US inflation problem neither worsened nor improved in July."
But "not improving" itself is the worst news.
💊 This is what the crypto market fears most — the embryo of stagflation
Don't tell me "Bitcoin is an inflation hedge."
In a stagflation environment, Bitcoin is neither gold nor a tech stock.
Why?
The Fed cannot cut rates — inflation at 3.7%, far from the 2% target. At the July meeting, three officials voted against holding rates steady and advocated for a hike. Traders have fully priced in a rate hike before year-end.
The economy can't hold up — zero growth in consumption, income barely rising. Q2 GDP at 1.5% looks okay, but it's all propped up by AI chip imports, which alone cut 1.64 percentage points from imports.
Bitcoin is caught in the middle:
Tell the "inflation hedge" story? Rate hike expectations weigh on you
Tell the "risk appetite" story? The economy is cooling
Tell the "digital gold" story? In the past two years, it has followed the Nasdaq, which follows liquidity
The Fed won't cut rates, liquidity won't loosen, Bitcoin is a sandwich cookie — inflation pressure on valuation from above, economic collapse unsupported from below.
Bitcoin's rise from $62,800 to $81,000 was driven by liquidity expectations from the Treasury's expanded bond repurchase.
But once the inflation data came out, everyone's attention immediately returned to whether the Fed would hike rates.
Your rise depends on others' liquidity operations, but your pricing power is in the Fed's hands.
This is not a bull market, it's a borrowed celebration.
Bitcoin rose 25% in ten days, but market sentiment turned negative on the day prices peaked. Even those pushing the price up felt uneasy.
🎯 Now everyone is waiting for one person — Kevin Warsh
On Friday, Fed Chair Warsh will deliver his first major speech since taking office at Jackson Hole.
This is his first Jackson Hole appearance since his May appointment.
What does the market want? One answer:Brothers, BTC hit $81,272 today, hitting a three-month high, then quickly pulled back to consolidate near 78,872. First surge, then pull back—a classic resistance level game scenario. Regarding the 81K pullback The early morning rally was logical: a weaker dollar, the US Treasury expanding long-term Treasury buybacks, and policy signals from the White House crypto summit pushed the price above $80,000. But it quickly pulled back—the 4-hour RSI surged above 71, indicating severe short-term overbought and profit-taking began to be realized. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the seventh consecutive day, with BlackRock IBIT attracting $284 million in a single day, accounting for over 90% of total inflows. ETF net assets are approaching $100 billion, with $3.03 billion flowing in since August. But a more subtle signal comes from on-chain. SOPR once rose to 1.48, and long-term holders are cashing in gains at higher profitability. Coinbase's premium remains negative (-0.015), and US investors' buying interest has yet to recover significantly. ETFs are buying, on-chain selling is — two forces are facing off near 80,000. ETFs represent continuous institutional inflows, while on-chain chips are cashing out at high levels. Whose strength is greater will determine whether 80,000 is support or a ceiling. Where is the technical situation? The daily chart still maintains a bullish structure, but recently several candlesticks have narrowed and upper and lower shadows have lengthened, indicating divergence between bulls and bears near 80,000. The 4-hour chart is fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000比特币重新站上八万美元关口，市场情绪肉眼可见地回暖，但若把这轮反弹简单归结为“美联储要降息”，恐怕会错过更关键的线索 🧐 利率决议当然重要，但它只是流动性拼图里的一块。真正决定比特币走向的，是整体流动性的松紧，而非某一次议息会议的靴子落地。换句话说，市场交易的不是“降息”这个事件，而是资金环境是否真的在转向宽松。 眼下更值得盯住的两个指标，一是美债收益率，二是美元指数 💵 收益率下行意味着持有无风险资产的吸引力下降，资金才有动力向外寻找更高弹性的去处；美元走弱则相当于给以美元计价的加密资产提供了顺风。两者叠加，才是比特币能否站稳八万、甚至继续上探的真正土壤。 从盘面看，比特币突破八万带有一定情绪驱动成分，但若后续收益率与美元没有配合，这轮上涨的持续性就要打上问号。反过来，如果流动性预期持续改善，那么当前的价位或许只是中场，而非终点。 对于普通投资者而言，与其盯着单日涨跌或某条宏观新闻做决策，不如把视野拉长，观察收益率曲线、美元走势以及央行资产负债表的边际变化。这些慢变量，往往比快消息更能说明问题 🌊 需要提醒的是，宏观逻辑只能提供背景板，不能替代风险管理。市场永远存在预期差，任何🌅 8/27 Early Morning Market Report | NVIDIA Earnings Are Out NVIDIA’s latest earnings gave the market a mixed signal. 📊 Revenue guidance: $108B ±2%
📊 Analysts’ average expectation: $105.2B
📊 Gross margin: around 74% The guidance beat the average forecast, but it fell short of the more aggressive $110B+ expectations some traders were looking for. The initial after-hours reaction told the story: NVIDIA shares dropped roughly 3% before recovering. My takeaway? Good numbers, but not explosive enThe sectors leading the gains today all have small market caps, and the narrative is actually the same: putting real-world assets and platform traffic onto the blockchain to create tradable targets. More importantly, where is the money coming from? The USDT market cap moved only 0.07% in 24 hours, almost no new money entering; meanwhile, the entire market is down 2.55%, and BTC dominance at 59.1% is still declining. Putting these two numbers together, there is only one explanation — existing funds are moving out of mainstream positions to seek elasticity in small-cap sectors. The fear and greed index rose from 62 a week ago to 71, with sentiment running ahead of capital. Judgment: This is a rotation of existing funds, not an incremental market. Without new money filling in, the support for small caps is thin, and sustainability is naturally limited. The end signal can be counted: USDT market cap has had zero growth or even shrunk for two consecutive days, while BTC dominance stops falling and rebounds, indicating funds are withdrawing, and this round is basically over. Conversely, only when USDT begins to increase significantly and dominance continues to decline can it be considered that new money is pushing the market.NVIDIA disclosed its latest earnings overnight, once again playing out a familiar script: all key metrics exceeded market expectations, but the stock price showed limited movement after hours, strongly indicating that the positive news has been priced in.
Quarterly total revenue reached $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year. The data center business was the core contributor, generating $89 billion in revenue, up 117% year-over-year. Jensen Huang stated that AI has reached an industry inflection point, with computing power genuinely converting into corporate revenue, and the data supports this: hyperscale customer revenue grew 102% year-over-year, and AI cloud and industrial customers grew 138%. The next quarter's revenue guidance is $108 billion, above the market expectation of $104.8 billion.
Despite the explosive earnings, the stock weakened after hours. This mirrors the market logic seen with SK Hynix (SKHYNIX) and SanDisk (SNDK): high growth has already been fully priced in by the market, and the impressive earnings were expected, making it difficult to drive a significant stock price surge. NVIDIA's stock has only risen 12% this year, with valuation and market imagination already maxed out.
Currently, the market focus is no longer on quarterly revenue but on three core variables: whether the 75% gross margin can be sustained; whether rising memory chip prices will continue to squeeze profits; and the $500 billion computing power financing platform in cooperation with Wall Street institutions, which uses chips as collateral for lending. This model is highly imaginative, with Morgan Stanley commenting that its logic is sound but the risks are hard to quantify.
Mapping this to the $BTC market, NVIDIA's earnings provide reassurance to the AI hardware industry chain, indicating that upstream computing power demand has not diminished. However, if the AI sector enters a high-level consolidation or even a correction, some overflow funds might flow into the crypto market, warranting continued observation.
#EarningsObserver: Led by NVIDIA, AI returns enter a validation period
The above is solely personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. #英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂 #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
NVIDIA's Q2 earnings report is still quite astonishing $NVDA
Revenue reached $96.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%, exceeding the market expectation of about $92.3 billion; adjusted EPS was $2.22, also surpassing expectations. Data center revenue even hit $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. For the next quarter, the company directly provided a revenue guidance of $108 billion.
Now NVIDIA AI Enterprise has packaged NIM microservices, AI frameworks, SDKs, GPU scheduling, and enterprise-level support into commercial software, while Agent Toolkit, CUDA-X, and Physical AI related software are also continuously entering enterprise applications.
This is very important because hardware revenue is naturally cyclical, but once software enters the enterprise production environment, it usually means higher stickiness and sustained charging capability.
The underlying change is that AI is moving from "enterprises spending money to train models" to truly creating productivity and revenue.After briefly surpassing $80,000, Bitcoin experienced a natural cooldown, with the current price consolidating around $78,800. This pullback is not surprising; it feels more like profit-taking after a rapid rally rather than a signal of a trend reversal. From the market perspective, market sentiment remains stable, with no panic selling chain reactions. Ethereum's performance appears more steady, holding steadily above $2,500. This relatively resilient stance reflects that capital still favors mainstream assets, especially amid Bitcoin's correction. Ethereum did not follow the sharp weakness, which itself sends a sense of resilience. However, if we look at the broader crypto market, internal warmth and coolness are uneven. Some small-cap tokens such as H, LAB, KAITO, BEAT, and SNDK have clearly lagged behind the broader market, and funds have not formed a broad-based rally. This divergence shows that the current market drivers are still focused on leading assets rather than a widespread bull market atmosphere. In terms of capital flows, spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to see net inflows, providing solid support for these two major assets. However, it's worth noting that this incremental capital does not seem to have spilled over into the altcoin market. The market shows a pattern of selective rotation, with funds seeking highly certain targets rather than blindly chasing every rising story. For investors looking forward to the altcoin season, the current signals are still insufficient. Capital rotation does exist, but it tends to be localizedCopper prices are quickly approaching new highs, but the most interesting thing this time isn't the “global copper shortage”?
LME copper prices recently surged to 14,343 USD/ton, nearing historical highs. The question is, this year the global copper market was originally predicted to have a surplus of about 639,000 tons, so why are prices still so strong? The key lies in the United States. The market is worried that the US will start imposing tariffs on refined copper from 2027, so funds are arbitraging in advance. In the first half of the year, US copper imports have already reached 885,000 tons, with a large amount of copper being absorbed into COMEX warehouses, which in turn has tightened inventories outside the US.
This has created a very counterintuitive situation: copper is not suddenly unavailable to be mined, but copper has been moved to the wrong place. Coupled with Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Indonesia, the original surplus is being rapidly consumed.
I am now more focused on copper mining stocks like FCX and SCCO, but I won’t chase the price just because copper hits new highs. What really needs to be watched next is whether the US tariffs will be implemented and whether LME inventories will continue to decline. If inventories continue to be drawn down, copper could shift from an “AI power concept” to the next real resource theme driven by supply and demand.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
After reviewing the latest US July core PCE data, I believe the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting will be the most important event for the entire market.
This time, the core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, exactly matching the previous value and market expectations, with a month-over-month increase of 0.2%. After the Q2 GDP annualized revision, it remains at 1.5%. Honestly, the data hasn't worsened further, but it can't be said to have improved either. Inflation still firmly stands above the Fed's 2% target. Although the economy is starting to slow down, it hasn't weakened enough to support a policy shift.
After the data release, the market has quietly raised expectations for a September rate hike. The focus has shifted from whether the data beats expectations to discussing whether this sticky inflation can support the Fed continuing to tighten monetary policy.
Everyone is now waiting for Waller's speech at Jackson Hole this Friday. I will focus on three things: how he weighs inflation, employment, and economic growth; and his criteria for future rate hikes and maintaining high interest rates. This segment will directly set the tone for the upcoming policy path.
If this speech is vague and doesn't provide a clear policy framework, the monetary policy divergence in September will continue to widen. The US dollar, US Treasury yields, gold, and the crypto market will all continue to be stirred by this issue.
In the next few days, don't easily bet on direction. The Jackson Hole speech is the real variable; all answers await the speech's delivery. The stronger Nvidia’s earnings are, the more the AI trade enters a “nitpicking phase.”
In the past, the market could rally on one simple narrative: exploding AI demand. But that story is already priced in. Beating revenue estimates, robust orders, and continued data-center growth are now largely expected.
What matters more for valuation are the less exciting details—gross margins, rising memory costs, customer concentration, and the sustainability of future growth.
#PCEToJacksonHole Actually, funds have been continuously flowing into BTC and ETH, so who is selling during these recent days of decline? I guess it's very likely a deleveraging!
On the first trading day after the big surge over the weekend, BTC ETF inflows were about $314 million, and ETH also saw $180 million. Especially for ETH, the inflow scale is about 57% of BTC's, which is significantly higher than their market cap proportions, indicating that institutional allocation to ETH is clearly increasing.
Therefore, I believe the bottom support of this market rally is stronger than before, and the probability of BTC falling back to around 67,000 is already low.
More importantly, with the advancement of the "Clear Act," US financial assets may largely move on-chain and become tokenized in the future. The dollar, US stocks, and US bonds all going on-chain will naturally lead capital to re-recognize blockchain.
$BTC $ETH $BTC has recently reclaimed the vicinity of $80,000, and this rally is not just driven by retail investors chasing the price. In the past week, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of about $1.9 billion, marking one of the strongest single-week performances since last October. Following this, the inflow momentum has continued, indicating that institutional funds have at least returned to the table.
What’s even more noteworthy is that this surge hasn’t turned into the kind of frenzied leveraged one-way market seen before.
While BTC surged significantly over the week, futures open interest remained relatively low, suggesting that much of the price push came from short covering and spot capital absorption rather than a bubble inflated by new leverage.
But this also raises concerns.
Above $80,000 is no longer just a normal resistance level; it’s a zone where sentiment, profit-taking, and derivatives positions intertwine. Especially with options expiration approaching, price fluctuations around $75,000 to $80,000 are likely to be further amplified.
So, my personal view is that the real question here is not "Can BTC break above $80,000 again?"
But rather, after it breaks through, who is willing to keep buying?
If ETF funds continue to flow in and spot buying gradually absorbs the selling pressure at high levels, this rally could evolve from a pure short squeeze rebound into a genuine trend recovery.
However, if capital inflows weaken while prices continue to hold up purely on sentiment, $80,000 could easily revert from a breakout point back into a short-term zone of chip exchange.
The current market is no longer in the state of "no buyers after a drop" as before.
The real change is that short squeezes are weakening, and spot capital is becoming the key factor in determining the next direction.
From now on, I’m only watching one thing:
Will ETF money keep flowing in, or will it start to turn around near $80,000?
Because how far this rally can go may not depend on how many shorts can be forced to liquidate,
but on whether there are enough buyers willing to absorb the sell orders at the top.
$ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款
"Banks Moving Deposits On-Chain: A Defensive Battle to Guard a $19.5 Trillion Funding Pool"
Many institutions are puzzled: mature stablecoins with huge circulation already exist in the market, so why are major Wall Street banks making a big fuss about moving deposits directly on-chain?
On the surface, both enable cross-border transfers in seconds, but the underlying ownership of the funds is completely different.
If companies switch to ordinary compliant stablecoins, the money is completely removed from bank deposits, and all interest income goes to the issuer.
However, by building tokenized deposits themselves, major banks can enjoy the flexibility of smart contracts while firmly locking the core $19.5 trillion in demand deposits on their own balance sheets.
Even if the major banks across the U.S. lose only 1% to 3% of deposits, it means hundreds of billions of dollars in cheap liabilities are drained. This defensive battle to hold onto core deposits has now moved to the forefront. $BTC The overall picture remains one of strong underlying fundamentals, but increasingly stretched valuations. Ahead of the earnings release, NVDA briefly fell to around $210.55, roughly 3.2% below the previous close, significantly underperforming $QQQ, which was down about 0.9%. This indicates that investors had already started reducing exposure to major AI stocks in anticipation of the results.
#PCEToJacksonHole
#AIMonetizationBroadens
#BTCOptionsExpiryTest $BTC Simple summary of last night's PCE and Nvidia earnings:
1. Core PCE was in line with market expectations and previous values, nominal PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) declined compared to June, conveying the core signal that: there is no evidence of further inflation decline in the US, inflation is somewhat "stuck". It is expected that there will be neither rate hikes nor cuts in September, the market interprets this as "neutral, slightly bearish."
2. Nvidia's past and future performance both exceeded expectations, and it has started mass production of Vera Rubin (VR) cabinets, with a forecasted growth of over 70% in the future. No surprises in the data, and the market has no mood.
PCE released, once again perfectly matching expectations. Honestly, recent US data is as precise as a pre-filled Excel sheet—the published values and expectations are exactly the same, with fluctuations so small it makes you wonder if it was manually adjusted. Under Trump's administration, this kind of "precise control" is not the first time, and the market is too lazy to be surprised.
BTC has fallen back to around 78,500, a typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario.
Moderate PCE and strengthened rate cut expectations were fully priced in last week. Since the data didn't exceed expectations with positive surprises, short-term funds naturally pulled back first. Key support to watch below is the 74,000-75,000 range, and further down is the extreme support zone of 71,500-73,500. But the real highlight isn't today; tomorrow night at Jackson Hole, the speech by Waller will be the key to determining direction—whether to continue dovish signals to ignite a new round of rally, or to hint that "rate cuts aren't coming that soon," which will directly affect market revisions of Q4 liquidity expectations.
On the US stock side, opening with a drop has become the norm.
Next up is Nvidia.
After seven consecutive declines, it finally rose 2.2% yesterday, catching a breather. But the real test comes after tonight's close—earnings release. The market is waiting for the answer on whether AI returns can support the trillion-dollar valuation. If it beats expectations, risk appetite for tech stocks may fully return, benefiting the crypto market as well; if it falls short, don't expect BTC to remain unaffected.
Tonight is destined to be turbulent, buckle up and hold tight. 🚨 $FIL SHORTS ARE STACKING UP AGAIN
The number of $FIL short positions is now roughly one-third higher than longs.
One possible explanation? Miner hedging.👀
Miners holding $FIL can sell their spot holdings when price rises, while using short positions to hedge downside risk if price falls.
That creates a difficult setup for bulls: selling pressure on the way up + downside protection on the way down.
And with roughly 365,000 $FIL unlocking every day, the supply pressure deserves attention"PCE Data + Waller's Debut, 5 Quick Takes"
1/ First, the data: July PCE year-over-year at 3.7%, expected 3.6%.
Up by 0.1 percentage points.
Core PCE year-over-year at 3.3%, exactly the same as June.
Economists originally expected it to come down. It didn’t.
In the current Fed atmosphere, “no improvement” means “worsening.”
Once the data came out, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 36% to over 40%.
A blunt truth: inflation isn’t improving, it’s just standing still. And what the market fears most isn’t bad news, but “good news that falls short of expectations.”
2/ But the real problem isn’t the 3.7%.
It’s zero real growth in consumption.
Personal income rose 0.4% in July, consumption expenditure rose 0.2%, looks okay, right?
After adjusting for inflation, real consumption spending didn’t increase at all.
Even worse: compared to a year ago, inflation-adjusted income only rose 0.2% — it had been negative for several months before this.
Five years of cumulative price increases have completely eroded income.
In consumer confidence surveys, most Americans remain pessimistic about the economy and their personal finances.
In plain terms: Americans have no money left, and prices keep rising. This is the worst combination for risk assets — no new funds, only existing funds being squeezed.
3/ Tomorrow night at 10 PM Beijing time, Waller’s Jackson Hole debut.
This is his first time speaking on this globally watched stage since taking office in May this year.
Since taking office, he has played a “talk less” strategy — at the July FOMC meeting, three officials already voted against and advocated a 25 basis point hike.
The market is voting with its feet.
Tomorrow night he must speak. Otherwise, the market will speak for him.
Regarding Waller, the market consensus is: whether he speaks is more important than what he says.
4/ What does the market really think?
A recent survey shows:
80% want Waller to clarify his economic views
But on whether “he should talk about rates” — 48% yes, 48% no, completely split
The Fed itself is similarly divided. Those advocating waiting say “inflation hasn’t worsened”; those advocating hikes say “inflation has been above target for over five years.”
Both sides can find ammunition in the data.
The Fed now is like a car stuck at a crossroads — going forward means hikes, standing still means inflation, whichever way it goes, someone will criticize.
5/ CME FedWatch latest probabilities: 44% chance of a September hike, December hike probability has soared above 67%.
But that’s not the main point.
The key is: if Waller tomorrow night characterizes inflation as a “supply shock” — this whole pricing is wrong.
The hike probabilities will be recalculated overnight.
See you at 10 PM tomorrow night for the verdict.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 1/ First, look at the surface numbers.
On August 26, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the second estimate of Q2 GDP: 1.5%.
Much slower than Q1's 2.1%. Sounds weak, right? Inflation stubbornly high, zero growth in consumption.
The market panicked. Bitcoin plunged below $78,000. The probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 36% to 44%.
But underneath lies a completely different story.
2/ Breaking down GDP, you find a "structural illusion."
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in Q2, revised up from the initial estimate of 3.2%. In Q1, this figure was only 0.5%.
Excluding residential, business investment grew 8.5%—the heat of AI investment.
A measure that specifically gauges the economy's intrinsic strength—final sales to private domestic purchasers—excluding volatile government spending and trade, grew 4.2%, the strongest in over three years. This was revised up from the initial 3.9%.
1.5% versus 4.2%, nearly a threefold difference.
3/ So what dragged the 1.5% down?
Imports.
Imports surged at an annualized rate of 12.5% in Q2. A large portion of this was computer chips and related products supporting AI investment.
GDP only counts domestic production; imports are subtracted—this item alone cut 1.64 percentage points.
Ironically?
The chips imported to build AI infrastructure lowered the U.S.'s own growth figures.
4/ This creates an absurd picture—
The AI investment boom is real. In Q2, companies frantically bought chips and built computing power, consumption grew strongly at 3.4%, domestic demand momentum is the strongest in over three years.
But reflected in GDP, it's only 1.5%.
The U.S. economy is like a 4.2% wolf disguised in 1.5% sheep's clothing—strong, but hidden by import figures.
5/ More troubling is inflation.
July's PCE price index year-over-year was 3.7%, exactly the same as June. Core PCE year-over-year was 3.3%, also unchanged.
Economists originally expected it to drop to 3.6%. It didn't.
"No improvement" itself is the answer.
Once the data came out, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 36% to 42%-44%. Traders have fully priced in one rate hike before year-end.
6/ And this is where the crypto market should really be anxious.
Inflation has been above the 2% target for over five years. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh promised to end inflation but has given no indication so far—does he believe inflation can fall on its own without rate hikes?
Wednesday's data showed it cannot.
On Friday, Warsh will deliver his first major speech since taking office at Jackson Hole.
Bank of America warns: if he doesn't signal rate hikes, the 30-year Treasury yield could surge to 5.5%.
7/ What does this mean for the crypto market?
If Warsh signals rate hikes—risk assets come under pressure, and Bitcoin's "easy money expectation" narrative breaks.
If he doesn't signal—long-term bond yields soar, the dollar weakens, which is also not good.
It's a "lose-lose" situation for risk assets.
8/ But the deeper issue is here—
The market has been trading on "1.5% weak economy + inflation peak = rate cut expectations."
But the real economy is 4.2% strong domestic demand + AI investment boom + real momentum hidden by imports.
What if Warsh sees the latter?
What if he judges "the economy isn't that weak, and inflation won't fall easily"?
Then the "easy money trade" the crypto market has bet on for the past month could be completely wrong.
9/ The painful truth is—
Bitcoin just approached $80,000 last week, and the market was euphoric.
But once the PCE data came out, BTC promptly fell below $78,000.
The $2,000 gap between $78,000 and $80,000 doesn't depend on technicals or ETF fund flows.
It depends on one person's words at the podium in Wyoming on Friday.
$ETH $ETH #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $SOL The overall market shows a hint of red amidst the green, with the total crypto market cap down 2.35%, and Bitcoin slightly retracing by 0.54%, but the funds within this line haven't withdrawn. Top 3 daily gainers: Binance's staked Ethereum surged directly to 1.95%, ranking first, $Lido followed with a 1.62% increase, and $AAVE, the lending leader, rose 1.39% simultaneously. The staking trio and lending leader moving in sync indicates that off-exchange funds haven't fled, just repositioning within the ecosystem. What’s truly noteworthy is the 7-day line: Binance CEX's weekly gain is 18.40%, dominating the market and attracting significant capital inflow over the week. This contrasts with the purely on-chain narrative, as funds are flowing back into centralized platforms over the week, while on-chain leaders rely on spot hedging. The 1-day and 7-day trends are taking two different paths: 1-day is gathering on-chain, 7-day is accumulating on exchanges. This divergence is most likely to be amplified at the start of a major market move. $ETH The current picture is essentially “strong fundamentals, but increasingly demanding valuations.”
Before the earnings announcement, NVDA briefly traded around $210.55, down approximately 3.2% from the previous close, noticeably underperforming $QQQ, which was down about 0.9%. This suggests investors had already taken some risk off the table in major AI names ahead of the report#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest What scent did the whales catch? 😂 I was about to go to sleep, but then I saw the on-chain activity and suddenly became wide awake. According to the data I’m watching, Bitkub’s co-founder reportedly moved out of his entire 34,000 ZEC position, worth more than $26 million, and rotated the funds into roughly 238 BTC. That’s a pretty interesting switch. A few details caught my attention: 1️⃣ He didn’t use OTC. Instead, around 24,000 ZEC was reportedly sold directly through Hyperliquid within 24 hoThe 0x20c...4f5 address on Hyperliquid has shorted 30,000 ETH at 50x leverage (approximately $110 million), which should be @ResolvLabs' delta-neutral strategy short hedge position, rather than a whale.
The 0x20c...4f5 address and Resolv's 0xacB...b8e contract address have multiple transfers between them and share the same Binance deposit address.
Additionally, according to Resolv's documentation, they short ETH via perpetual contracts to hedge and achieve a delta-neutral strategy.
Therefore, the 0x20c...4f5 address is likely the address Resolv uses to execute the short hedge, not a whale.
Short short short, living in the palace📉$OKB quietly rises, the most stable among platform tokens
OKB is currently priced around $112, down slightly by 0.1% in 24 hours, but up 11% weekly and 31% monthly, quietly gaining strength among platform tokens. Honestly, OKB's trend is more stable than I expected.
On-chain is bullish: funding rate +0.007%, longs are paying shorts interest, a typical bullish bet; technically, RSI is 72 entering overbought but the golden cross remains, the 50-day moving average just crossed above the 200-day moving average, the mid-term structure is intact. OKX continues buyback and burn to support the price, with 21 million tokens locked in circulation.
Whale activity: 91% of OKX perpetual positions are concentrated on its own order book, indicating the platform and core whales haven't fled, chips are stable. But I noticed on August 21 it was just above $100, pulsing to $115 within a week, showing considerable volatility.
My judgment: OKB's logic is "exchange performance + buyback + catch-up rally," BTC is oscillating around 80,000, platform tokens are just along for the ride. $112 is neither cheap nor expensive; those wanting to get in would feel more comfortable waiting for a pullback to $105–108. Don't all in, platform tokens' black swan events are always irrational. The stronger Nvidia’s earnings are, the more the AI trade moves into a “nitpicking” phase.
Earlier, the market only needed one narrative: explosive demand. Now, that story is already priced in. Revenue beats, strong orders, and continued data-center growth are no longer enough to surprise investors.
The real valuation drivers are shifting toward the finer details—gross margins, rising memory costs, customer concentration.
#PCEToJacksonHole
#AIMonetizationBroadens
#BTCOptionsExpiryTest 1/ Last night, the PCE data was released.
July PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, unchanged from June, 0.1 percentage points higher than the expected 3.6%.
Once the data came out, the probability of a September rate hike jumped directly from 36% to 44%.
The market panicked. Bitcoin fell from $81,237 directly below $78,000. Gold plunged. Everyone is asking the same question: Will Walsh announce a rate hike on Friday?
But no one is asking the real question—
Does a rate hike actually help with the current inflation?
2/ First, let's clarify one thing: there are two types of inflation.
The first is demand-driven inflation.
The economy is overheated, everyone has too much money, companies can raise prices at will, and consumers have no choice but to pay.
This kind of inflation responds to rate hikes. Taking money out reduces demand, and prices naturally stabilize.
The second is supply shock inflation.
War cuts off oil routes, tariffs break supply chains, chips are in short supply—not too much money, but too few goods.
This kind of inflation is unaffected by rate hikes.
Raising interest rates to 10% won’t make Iranian oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Raising rates to 15% won’t make the $20 billion tariffs from the US-Canada trade dispute disappear.
3/ Let's look at what we are facing now.
Iran war—Strait of Hormuz remains closed, global oil market daily shortfall of 1.8 million barrels in Q3. London Brent crude once broke $90 per barrel.
US-Canada trade war—On August 22 early morning, the US imposed a 50% tariff on $20 billion of Canadian goods. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said, "Being attacked means being at war." Reciprocal countermeasures take effect on September 8.
AI chip shortage—NVIDIA AI server prices rose over 15%, median retail price of RTX 50 series graphics cards increased 39% from June to August.
Diesel price surge—On August 26, the US average diesel price was $5.62 per gallon, approaching the June 2022 record high of $5.82.
4/ Tell me, which of these can a rate hike solve?
Can a rate hike open the Strait of Hormuz?
Can a rate hike make Trump cancel tariffs?
Can a rate hike double chip production overnight?
No.
A rate hike only does one thing: kills demand.
Demand dies, companies stop hiring, wages stop rising, people stop spending.
But supply still won’t come back.
5/ The Fed is already in turmoil internally.
At the July FOMC meeting, 3 officials voted against a rate hike—the highest opposition in ten years.
Cleveland Fed President Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan voted no, advocating an immediate 25 basis point hike.
And Walsh? He has not yet expressed a position.
"Fed mouthpiece" Timiraos bluntly said: The core question Walsh must answer on Friday is—Is inflation a one-time shock caused by tariffs and war, or is the economy still overheated?
6/ The answer to this question determines whether a rate hike is effective.
If Walsh believes inflation is a "supply shock"—he won’t hike rates.
Because rate hikes don’t work on supply shocks and will wreck the economy.
But the market’s current 44% probability bets that "Walsh is hawkish."
7/ The harsh truth is?
The market may be completely betting in the wrong direction.
There is a detail in the July PCE data that most people overlook: inflation-adjusted consumer spending was zero growth in July.
It was growing strongly in the previous two months, but dropped to zero in July.
Inflation-adjusted personal income rose only 0.2% year-on-year. It had been negative for several months before.
Ordinary people have been hollowed out by five years of cumulative price increases.
Raising rates now? How are ordinary people supposed to survive?
8/ Walsh is not Powell.
Powell is gradualist, likes to give guidance so the market can slowly digest it.
Walsh’s style is "say less"—he removed forward guidance from the FOMC statement right after taking office.
He doesn’t feed the market a pacifier.
But because of this, no one knows what he will say on Friday.
He might drop a bombshell at Jackson Hole—like admitting this is a supply shock and no rate hike is needed.
9/ What does this mean for the crypto market?
If Walsh classifies it as a "supply shock" → no rate hike → weaker dollar → bullish for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has already risen 28% in August, once breaking $81,000. If rate hike expectations are dispelled, what do you think will happen?
The 44% rate hike probability bets that "Walsh is hawkish."
But what if he’s not?
10/ One last thing.
The market always prices in "what everyone thinks will happen."
But the real money is made by those who realize "everyone might be completely wrong."
Before Friday, everyone is anxious about rate hikes.
Maybe the ones who should really be anxious are those betting on rate hikes.
/ Conclusion
Inflation has been above 2% for 65 consecutive months.
3 officials voted for a rate hike, the most in ten years.
44% of the market bets on a September rate hike.
But no one asks: Does a rate hike actually work?
If inflation is driven by war and tariffs—rate hikes are just an overreaction in the wrong direction.
On Friday, Walsh will give us the answer.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 71.
This is the reading of the Crypto Fear and Greed Index on August 27. The market is in the "Greed" zone, up 6 points from yesterday's 65.
But if you only look at today's number, you miss the most exciting part of this story.
First, two weeks ago, this number was 27.
On August 12, the Fear and Greed Index was only 27 — "Fear".
On August 6, it even dropped to 25 — "Extreme Fear".
From late July to August 19, the index stayed in the "Fear" zone for nearly a month straight.
Then, in two weeks, everything changed dramatically.
On August 25, the index surged to 81 — "Extreme Greed", the first time in 616 days. The market jumped directly from "Extreme Fear" to "Extreme Greed", the only time since CoinMarketCap started tracking this index.
From 25 on August 6 to 81 on August 25 — a 56-point surge in 19 days. From 27 on August 12 to 81 on August 25 — a 54-point surge in 13 days. A month ago, the index was 36 (Fear), and a week ago it was 41 (Neutral).
A 45-point swing in 30 days almost wiped out all the cautious sentiment accumulated in the first half of 2026.
Then, it fell back to 71.
The market is like a stretched rubber band, wildly oscillating. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Fundamental Research Report $REDSTONE / RedStone (Oracle/Middleware) $3.20
Conclusion first: RedStone ($REDSTONE) overall score 62/100, rating Narrative outweighs implementation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Fundamental breakdown: RedStone (token $REDSTONE), oracle/middleware sector. Focuses on modular oracles. Competitors include LINK, PYTH. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Customer price per user $50-500/month, settlement in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as a niche single-point tool. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing seen on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales seen in whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants are grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration seen via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: RedStone $3.00B, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. FDV: RedStone $4.20B, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. Annual revenue: RedStone $2.00M, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: RedStone undisclosed, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Summary: fundamentals solid (score 62/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Risk warnings: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relies solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Information from public sources, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
Fundamentals covered here, the rest is up to the market.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit🔥 Sanctions are tightening. Oil is falling. What are we missing? 👀
The US keeps ramping up pressure on Iran, targeting oil flows, shipping, digital assets, and gold—with “zero leakage” as the goal.
So you’d expect $CL and $BZ to surge.
Instead, both dropped more than 4%. 📉
Here’s the catch: oil doesn’t rally just because sanctions sound aggressive. The real question is whether those sanctions actually remove enough supply from the global market.
#DailyOrbit #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
NVIDIA $NVDA's latest earnings report showed a 106% year-over-year revenue increase and a 113% year-over-year gross profit increase.
After-hours price initially dropped,
but quickly reversed to a rise after the earnings call began.
Attributing this retrospectively based on the sequence of information disclosure,
the two price movements roughly correspond to two different sets of data received by the market.
1. The after-hours drop may have come from NVIDIA's guidance for next quarter's gross margin being slightly below market expectations.
(NVIDIA expects next quarter's gross margin to be about 74%, slightly below the market expectation of 74.77%)
For a company whose valuation heavily depends on growth quality,
future revenue exceeding expectations but with a decline in gross margin is the most obvious negative information for the market after the earnings release.
Additionally, during the earnings call, management stated that due to rising memory prices, gross margin may further decline in Q4.
However, this data indicates that gross margin pressure may persist longer, but since it was disclosed only during the call, it cannot explain the initial drop right after the earnings release.
2. The subsequent price rise is easier to understand.
NVIDIA expects fiscal year 2028 revenue growth of about 70%, while the market's average expectation before the earnings was only around 44%.
This significantly exceeds market expectations.
Combined with the factors affecting gross margin, this is still a forecast constrained by supply limitations NVIDIA's earnings report is out, continuing to greatly exceed expectations, indicating that the capital expenditure logic for AI hasn't broken down for now.
The stock price also reacted after hours. But the biggest issue with AI right now isn't whether the performance is good, but how much valuation the market is still willing to give for such good performance.
For the storage + AI sector, I think the long-term logic still holds, but in the short term, too many people have already crowded in. It feels invincible when rising, but a pullback of several tens of percentage points is completely normal.
So ordinary people really don't need to study individual stocks every day. Just slowly invest regularly in QQQ or the S&P. If you truly understand the hot sectors, buy a little on dips; if you don't understand, don't force it. Stocks aren't a place to get rich overnight, and neither is the crypto world.The SEC is redefining crypto custody
🇺🇸 Just now, a regulatory signal worth long-term attention:
The SEC has submitted a proposal to modernize crypto asset custody rules to the White House OMB for review.
On the surface, this is about "custody rules," but essentially it could affect how Wall Street funds enter Crypto.
The traditional securities custody framework in the past may not fully fit native digital assets like BTC.
If future rules develop towards being more technology-neutral, risk-oriented, and adapted to crypto-native infrastructure, then custody solutions like MPC, multi-signature, as well as banks, broker-dealers, and investment advisors participating in crypto asset custody, could all gain greater regulatory space.
More importantly:
ETFs solve "how institutions buy BTC."
Custody rules solve "how institutions compliantly hold BTC after buying it."
This is actually another piece of the puzzle for the maturation of Crypto financial infrastructure.
Of course, this is currently only at the OMB review stage; the specific final rules still need to be observed, and no specific policy details should be taken as established facts yet.
But the direction is worth noting:
The U.S. is moving from "allowing institutions to buy Crypto" to gradually "how to make the entire institutional Crypto financial system operate normally."
For BTCfi, what’s truly worth watching may be right here.₿Crypto has actually been undergoing a very obvious change in recent years: institutions are no longer just betting on "the entire market going up". Viktor Fischer and Austin Barack from RockawayX recently mentioned that they believe Crypto has shown some bottoming signals. But what I find more worth watching is not whether they are bullish or not, but that the way institutions make money is changing. Previously, many Crypto funds mainly earned Beta, which is the money from the overall market rising. Simply put, when $BTC goes up, altcoins go up together, and it’s easy to make money buying anything. But now, more and more institutions are starting to go long on good projects, short on poor projects, trade Crypto-related stocks, and even do Pair Trades, which means buying strong ones and selling weak ones to profit from the price difference between projects. This is actually very similar to the early maturation process of the internet industry. As the number of projects increases, not all can succeed. There will be those that can truly deliver products, users, and cash flow, and there will definitely be those that rely only on stories and eventually get eliminated. So if Crypto continues to institutionalize, in the future it may increasingly resemble the US stock market: it’s not that everything goes up in a bull market, but the differentiation between projects becomes more severe. I actually think this is a sign of industry maturity. People are no longer blindly viewing "cryptocurrency" as a whole, but seriously distinguishing what is worth buying, what should be avoided, and even what is worth shorting. The true mainstream acceptance of Crypto may not be when everyone starts toPCE delivered numbers, not direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY and rose 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE came in slightly hotter at 3.7%. Q2 GDP stayed at 1.5% annualized. Sticky inflation, resilient underlying demand, and no clean signal for the Fed.
Rate pricing moved, then came back. September hike odds jumped from about 36% to 44% after the release before easing to 36-37%. Odds of at least one hike by year-end remain near 73%. The broader path barely changed.
That shifts attention to Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Friday at 10AM. The symposium's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." A $300B stablecoin market and the GENIUS Act sit in the backdrop, though the keynote's contents are not yet public.
Treasury's decision to at least double the cap on long-end liquidity-support buybacks coincided with renewed demand for inflation and dollar-risk hedges. Through Aug 26, BTC was on track for its best August since 2017.
The hedge trade is broadening:
· August BTC ETF inflows have topped $3B, on track for the strongest month since October 2025
· Cumulative net inflows are near $54.4B, with net assets around $99B
· GLD took in $3.4B in the week ended Aug 21, while GLD and IBIT re-entered the top 10 US ETFs by value traded
This is not gold versus bitcoin. Both perceived hedges are being bid as investors reassess inflation, the fiscal outlook and dollar risk.
Friday also brings a major BTC options expiry:
· About 81,700 BTC options worth $6.44B expire at 08:00 UTC
· 44,639 calls versus 37,061 puts; put/call ratio 0.83
· Max pain is near $68K
· $75K holds about $236M in call OI, with another $157M at $80K
Max pain is not a forecast. It misses hedging, entry costs, off-exchange positions and spot demand. But the expiry and Warsh's speech land six hours apart, with BTC near $79K after being rejected around its 50-week average near $81.1K.
PCE is done. Friday is the real test. Which matters more for BTC: Warsh's policy tone or the options expiry?
#PCEToJacksonHole #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #GoldVsBTCETFFlows #BTC surge and pullback, options expiry amplifies key level battle
BTC surged to 80000 then pulled back, with options concentrated expiry amplifying the key level battle. On August 28, about $6.44 billion worth of BTC options expire, with some positions distributed between 75000 and 80000, and both bulls and bears will take action in the last two days.
K33 research shows this round of rally includes the largest single-day short squeeze on record, with futures open interest subsequently declining, indicating short covering was a major driver of the earlier gains. ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, with incremental funds entering the market, but the rapid price surge also increased holders' willingness to realize profits. The short squeeze effect is weakening; whether ETFs and spot buying can continue to absorb high-level selling will determine if this rally is a trend recovery or a temporary rebound. Currently, I am bullish on $UNI. This time, it's not just trend support; Uniswap's product progress, protocol revenue, and UNI token burning mechanism over the past few months are gradually connecting to the same narrative. Technically, we've reached a critical point that needs confirmation. Protocol usage can finally be converted into UNI supply reduction. After UNIfication passed, Uniswap has enabled protocol fees in the v2 and v3 pools of 11 chains. Revenue is converted into UNI through TokenJar and Firepit mechanisms, which are then burned. According to data released in July, after the mechanism launched, about 7.5 million UNI and $25.6 million were burned, with a single-day peak burning of 186,000 UNI. This means UNI is no longer just about governance; protocol trading volume is beginning to connect with token supply. The next step is the v4 protocol fee. Currently, the v4 fee controller is still in the governance process and should not be prematurely implemented; However, if it is approved later, v4 static pools, CCA pools, and aggregator hooks may all add sources for coin burning. Uniswap is positioning itself as a liquidity gateway for RWA and institutional assets This year, Uniswap will integrate tokenized stocks, bonds, and yield-generating assets into Web apps, wallets, and APIs. Official statistics show that cumulative RWA pool transactions have exceeded $9.1 billion, covering 2.6 billion USD2375.94 long $ETH, 100x leverage, currently 2491.24. Review of entry: Around 2375 is the lower edge of a densely traded zone tested multiple times previously, providing natural support. The reason for entering 100x leverage was the obvious thickness of buy orders on the order book and dense support orders below at that time.
Currently at 2491.24, just a step away from the 2500 whole number level. Historical data shows that near 2500, there is often a "false breakout + rapid pullback" shakeout. Such a shakeout is extremely damaging for 100x leverage positions (a 2% pullback would wipe out all unrealized profits).
Improvement point: For 100x positions, actively reduce position size before the whole number level. For this trade, the first tier of reduction was executed near 2491, with the remaining stop loss moved up to the 2375 cost basis. Do not gamble on breakouts, only profit from confirmed ranges. Next time with 100x leverage, reducing position size before key levels will be a strict rule. $BTC $SOL 📊 BTC cycle debate: After surging back to $80k from ~$60k within just over one month, does the classic "find cycle bottom in Sep‑Oct" thesis still hold?
This rapid rebound is partly fueled by short‑squeeze and improving US treasury‑liquidity sentiment, not definitive proof that the bear phase is fully over.
Four‑year‑halving seasonal patterns are only statistical probabilities, not fixed rules. Institutional capital via spot ETFs has the power to reshape cycle timing.GDP SLOWS, MONTHLY INFLATION IS SOFTER: BTC BENEFITS OR IS IT AT RISK? US GDP in the second quarter grew by 1.5%, slowing down from 2.1% in the first quarter. PCE and core PCE in July both increased by 0.2%, while personal income grew faster than spending. This is a combination of two-sided data. Monthly inflation not rising sharply may ease pressure on interest rates, but slowing growth also makes cash flows cautious of risk assets. BTC is around 78.9K. There is no new RSI yet, so I don't assign a LONG or SHORT signal. Tonight we need to keep an eye on the number of orders