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$DOGE family, Bitcoin surged and then pulled back, with overall market sentiment swinging uncertainly. Dogecoin in this round showed a pattern of first a dump, then stabilization and recovery.
Let's first review the core data on the 1-hour timeframe:
Current price 0.08700
24h high 0.09074, low 0.08475
Bollinger Bands BOLL20: middle band 0.08685, upper band 0.08877, lower band 0.08494
Short-term moving averages: MA3: 0.08656, MA8: 0.08653
1-hour MACD: DIF -0.00078, DEA -0.00095, MACD value 0.00034, green bars disappeared, just turned into slight red bars, bearish momentum exhausted, short-term bulls begin to attempt a counterattack.
Market structure analysis
1. Sharp drop from high, bottoming then low-level consolidation to build a base
The hourly chart shows the highest point in the early session reached 0.09074, hitting resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, followed by a rapid sell-off down to a low of 0.08475.
After the decline, no new lows were made; the price stabilized above 0.08475 and gradually oscillated upward. Now the price has just firmly stood above the Bollinger middle band at 0.08685.
The Bollinger middle band at 0.08685 is the short-term dividing line between strength and weakness. Holding above it means the recovery trend continues; falling back below it means a weak consolidation pattern dominates again.Reviewing BTC's historical price trends, every time it breaks through a whole number threshold, there is a pullback. After breaking 60,000 in 2021, it pulled back to 50,000; after breaking 70,000 in 2024, it pulled back to 65,000. This time, after breaking 80,000, it pulled back to around 78,000, which aligns with historical patterns. Support and resistance levels: resistance at 81,266/82,000, support at 78,000/77,810. I am still holding my long position at 78,516, with a stop loss at 78,000 and a target of 82,000. Opened position with 5,000U, 10x leverage, risk-reward ratio 4:1. Currently recovering from a 200,000U loss, always use stop loss to avoid holding losing positions. Current price 78,706. $BTC#BTC breaking through $80,000, can it hold the new level The domestic crypto regulatory logic is changing, shifting from a simple one-size-fits-all approach to a combined approach of easing and tightening with classified governance.
Boundaries must be clear: For domestic transactions, exchanges, and intermediary promotions involving native virtual currencies like BTC and ETH, strict regulation remains unchanged, and the classification of related businesses has not relaxed.
The so-called "easing" mainly applies to blockchain technology and the compliant tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), reserving space for industrial innovation within a compliance framework, rather than loosening speculative trading of ordinary tokens.
Many traders easily misunderstand this industrial easing as a relaxation of coin speculation. This must be clarified: technology and industry can explore, but the risks of individual participation in virtual currency speculation have not disappeared.
Looking at the market, overseas BTC and altcoins mostly follow Federal Reserve policies, U.S. Treasury yields, and geopolitical events. The adjustment of domestic regulatory logic has limited direct impact on secondary market coin prices but more so changes the industry's long-term survival environment.
Do not be misled by headlines like "regulatory shift"; distinguishing between industrial policy and personal speculation is key.#三星巨额回报遭抛售，市场为何不买账？
A 110 trillion KRW plan, big numbers but lacking sincerity. No buybacks, no increase, decisions postponed until next year—the market votes with its feet, dropping 8.7%, because you offered the biggest pie in history but only let people lick it once.
Breaking down the plan, where is the problem? On August 21, Samsung approved a 2026 shareholder return of 90-110 trillion KRW (about $65-79 billion), five times the 2020 record. But only 30 trillion KRW in cash dividends were confirmed for Q3; the remaining 60-80 trillion KRW will be decided at the board meeting in January next year. The 15 trillion KRW buyback is only for employee compensation, not cancellation. The return ratio remains at 50% of cumulative free cash flow, unchanged, with no increase or plans mentioned beyond 2027.
Where is the market disappointment? JPMorgan listed three points: the Q3 committed amount is low, no buyback announced, and the return ratio unchanged. The market had previously expected far more than 110 trillion KRW; KB Securities even estimated 200 trillion KRW. Eugene Securities bluntly said: "Unlike SK Hynix, Samsung did not mention raising the existing policy nor announce a cancellation plan that could directly boost the stock price, which is disappointing."
Compared to SK Hynix: the difference lies in "execution certainty." Hynix announced a 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation, executed immediately, and raised the return ratio from "up to 50%" to "at least 50%." Samsung only confirmed 30 trillion KRW now, with the rest postponed until next year—the market wants "buybacks now," not "talk next year." $BTC Bitcoin Quarterly Return Review
Historical Pattern Observations
1. Quarterly volatility is extreme; single-quarter drawdowns can exceed -50%, and single-quarter gains can double or even multiply several times. High volatility is the norm.
2. Bull market phase: multiple years show two to three consecutive quarters of positive returns; bear market phase shows multiple consecutive quarters of negative returns.
3. Three quarters of 2026 have passed: Q1 and Q2 declined consecutively, Q3 rebounded sharply by +34.20%, and Q4 data is not yet available.
4. There is no fixed "which quarter must rise/fall"; history is for reference only and cannot be used to predict future market trends.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $BTC
Today's Market Overview
There’s quite a bit to cover today, so I’ll go step by step... First, let's talk about on-chain data..
1) Over the past few days, there has been a large volume of both old and new coins being sold to realize profits. Yesterday alone saw 1 billion in realized theoretical profits.. The daily profit-taking pressure remains relatively high but is gradually declining day by day.
2) In the past 7 days, long-term holders (LTH) have reduced their holdings by over 50,000 coins, while short-term holders have increased theirs by the same amount. In other words, old holders are selling while new participants are taking over.
So essentially, the old money is taking profits, and ETF funds are stepping in. These transactions are mostly OTC, so they are not very visible on exchanges.
3) The on-chain bull and bear models show that two indicators are still in the bull market zone.. overall, the structure remains intact (see Chart 1).
4) Currently, several important on-chain bull and bear lines remain above the price (see Chart 2).
The most recent is the True Mean Market price (TMM - the cycle bull/bear dividing line) at 76k.
The short-term trader average cost (short-term bull/bear dividing line) is now at 69k.
5) From the URPD chip distribution perspective.. from last Friday through the weekend, there was intense on-chain turnover above 77k.. URPD shows a peak turnover of over 100,000 BTC here.. (see Chart 4)
This area will become a fiercely contested zone between bulls and bears during any downward moves... (This is also near the aforementioned TMM True Mean Market price). Analysis of U.S. PCE and Q2 GDP Data and Impact on Bitcoin Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the revised U.S. Q2 GDP and July PCE price index will be released simultaneously. This is a key macro window ahead of the September Fed meeting, directly rewriting rate cut expectations and acting as a strong catalyst for Bitcoin, which is currently fluctuating at high levels. The preliminary Q2 GDP annualized 1.5%, below the market expectation of 2.1%. On the surface, the economy appears weak, but after excluding inventory and net export disturbances, the private domestic demand index soared to 3.9%. Strong consumer spending indicates the U.S. economy is "weak on the surface but strong on the inside," with no substantial recession. Consumer resilience will limit the Fed's room for rapid rate cuts. The market expectation for this GDP revision remains at 1.5%. If the data is revised upward, it means economic heat exceeds expectations and will suppress rate cut expectations; If it is revised downward, it is favorable for risk assets. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The market expects core PCE in July to be 3.2-3.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, still far from the 2% inflation target. Scenario 1: PCE exceeds expectations (hot inflation): Rate cut expectations are further delayed, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, Bitcoin is under short-term pressure, and pullbacks are likely to occur at the $80,000 level. The bullish short squeeze is likely to end temporarily. Scenario 2: PCE below expectations (cooling inflation): Rising rate cut expectations and improved liquidity expectations will help Bitcoin break through resistance above. However, the market is currently in an overbought zone, and even if positive news materializes, there is a risk of a "buy expectation and sell facts" leading to a sharp pullback. Scenario 3: Data meets expectations🔥Storage Triumvirate SNDK, SKHYNIX, MU, Brief Analysis of RWA Track Logic
The AI storage sector is heating up, with SNDK, SKHYNIX, and MU relying on the physical semiconductor industry, representing RWA-themed speculation, which differs from typical altcoin logic.
$MU Micron: Core AI computing power storage asset, tied to the NVIDIA supply chain, with solid fundamentals. Its price trend follows the US semiconductor sector, and contract volatility is heavily influenced by US stock market fluctuations. During sector pullbacks, retracements tend to amplify simultaneously.
$SKHYNIX Hynix: Global leader in memory chips, with a clear advantage in HBM production capacity. It leads sector sentiment, has the strongest elasticity, experiences sharp volatility triggered by news, frequent spike-and-dip washouts, making it more suitable for short-term trading.
$SNDK SanDisk: Deeply involved in the NAND flash memory sector, benefiting from the storage chip price upcycle. Its trend is relatively stable with stronger resistance to declines but less explosive compared to the other two, suitable for more conservative capital.
The price movements of these three are anchored to the US semiconductor industry dynamics and should not be traded with typical altcoin strategies. The sector's heat is just beginning, so blind chasing of highs is not recommended. Strict position control and stop-loss measures are essential when trading contracts.
Have you positioned yourself in storage sector tokens? Share your thoughts in the comments! #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 If global central banks abandon rate hikes and maintain easing within the year, risk assets whose valuations have been continuously suppressed by rate hike expectations are likely to see a valuation recovery window.
Overseas tech leaders NVDA, MSFT, storage sector MU, SKHY, as well as liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC and ETH, will all benefit from the sentiment boost brought by improved liquidity expectations.
Of course, this is only a forward-looking judgment by institutions; subsequent PCE inflation data and official statements at the Jackson Hole symposium are the key evidence to verify whether this logic holds.Neuberger Berman CIO throws a heavy-hitting view: global central banks may not raise interest rates at all this year, and the current market consensus might be proven wrong?
Maya Bhandari, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Multi-Asset Strategy at Neuberger Berman, recently expressed a view that directly contradicts the mainstream market pricing expectations.
Currently, the market generally prices in another round of rate hikes by major economies within the year, but her research team remains highly skeptical of this consensus logic.
The core logic is divided into three points:
First, since 2026, various macro data have continuously marginally validated that major central banks do not need to tighten aggressively at the pace the market expects; the real monetary policy environment will be more accommodative than trading expectations.
Second, reviewing the Fed's eight historical policy shifts, the underlying goals were always to stabilize growth and prevent systemic risks. Referring to the 2016 and 2019 market conditions, the market also priced in rate hikes in advance, but global central banks ultimately chose to remain accommodative, leading to a recovery in stocks and bonds. The current trajectory of U.S. Treasury yields may be forcing monetary policy to shift again.
Third, Neuberger Berman has already pushed the timing of major central banks' rate cuts back to 2027 but still does not agree with the market consensus of rate hikes within the year. From an asset allocation perspective, they are optimistic about risk asset recovery opportunities, focusing on U.S. equities, Asian and Japanese equity markets, as well as long-duration bonds in Europe and the U.S. $BTC continues to fluctuate below the 80,000 USD whole number level, with a large amount of options expiring soon making spot turnover here extremely sensitive.
The price oscillates repeatedly between 77,955 USD and 80,194 USD, with the more than 20% surge during the week temporarily slowing down before the 80,000 USD level.
Options with a notional value of about 6.44 billion USD are set to expire on Friday, with over 500 million USD positions densely concentrated within a narrow range of 5% around the current price.
The dense distribution of strike prices forces market makers to constantly adjust positions as spot prices fluctuate, and this hedging trading directly intensifies friction between 75,000 USD and 80,000 USD.
If spot volume breaks through and holds above 80,000 USD, market makers’ short hedging closeouts will turn into passive buying, pushing the price to open new upward space.
If the price falls below the intraday support around 77,800 USD, some profit-taking positions exiting combined with market makers switching to sell hedges may cause a short-term pullback quickly converging toward the 75,000 USD concentrated exercise zone.
As long as spot volatility is not released prematurely before options settlement, the passive game between bulls and bears below 80,000 USD will continue to suppress the choice of trend direction.
During the upcoming delivery window, the key observation is whether the pace of market makers releasing hedge positions near 80,000 USD will trigger a liquidity vacuum.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进$BTC US escalates sanctions on Iran, geopolitical logic requires re-evaluating the crypto market
The US has upgraded its economic blockade on Iran, with sanctions covering shipping, gold, and digital assets, restricting nearly 60 entities, primarily using economic pressure.
The Strait of Hormuz currently only allows temporary commercial vessel passage; permanent navigation will require 30-60 days of negotiations. The risk of maritime friction remains, and full navigation recovery is premature.
Do not blindly trust crypto's safe-haven narrative; Iran once had crypto assets worth billions of dollars frozen, and BTC cannot serve as a safe escape channel.
During tense situations, $BTC and $ETH are viewed as high-volatility risk assets and are sold off. Previous geopolitical disturbances caused over 100,000 people to be liquidated simultaneously.
Conversely, if the strait situation eases and oil prices decline, with reduced capital outflow from the tech sector, the crypto market may see capital inflows.
Mid-term summary: The more sanctions are implemented, the more crypto ties to market risk appetite. Do not blindly go long driven by war panic.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 The market is still shouting "The bull market is back," but the behavior of long-term holders (LTH) is undergoing a significant change. What was the situation before? Long-term holders have been continuously accumulating; in early June, the monthly average net increase in LTH supply reached 286,000 BTC. What about now? It has directly turned into a net decrease of about 21,000 BTC. And this is the first time this year that: BTC sold/transferred > BTC newly entering long-term holding status. Even more intense, the amount of BTC transferred by long-term holders to exchanges has risen to the highest level since 2026. Among them, the group holding for 6–18 months is the most active, transferring over 297,000 BTC to exchanges. In plain language, it means: Previously, everyone said: "I won’t sell when BTC drops, I’ll hold for years." Now that BTC is close to 80,000: "Brothers, I suddenly want to cash out. 😂" This is the place to watch most closely right now. Because market demand is indeed recovering, BTC has returned to a strong zone and even recently broke through $80,000 at one point. But the problem is: buying is increasing, and old coins are starting to flow out. If demand continues to strengthen, these coins might be smoothly absorbed by the market, and the market will continue to surge. But if the buying can’t hold... then it’s not just a "bull market correction." It could become: BTC rises → old holders sell → market pressure → bulls panic → profit-taking continues to dump → leveraged positions liquidate. So what is most taboo now#OKX Million Planner
If I were really given 1 million U, I wouldn’t just guess whether BTC will be 70k or 100k by the end of the month; I’d place orders in advance for all three scenarios.
200k for the ticket: 150k BTC spot + 50k out-of-the-money long-term Calls. If it really takes off, at least I’m on the train.
500k to "hold the belly": layered buying at 77k/74k/70k, half in spot, half selling Cash-Secured Puts. If it doesn’t drop, I collect premiums; if it really drops, I get BTC, which I wanted to buy anyway.
300k reserved as ammo: bottom-fishing after extreme panic stops, or chasing after a confirmed breakout above 90k.
After receiving BTC from Puts, I don’t just lie flat; I turn around to sell Covered Calls to keep collecting rent.
My logic is simple:
If it rises, I have the tickets; if it falls, I catch the goods; if it’s sideways, time pays me rent.
The direction can be wrong, but 1 million U can’t have only one way to live.
#OKX Million Planner Strategy raising $2B without buying BTC looks unusual, but the $5.1B reserve may matter more than another purchase. More cash means greater flexibility to service obligations, buy BTC during weakness or support its securities without becoming a forced seller. The trade-off is dilution today for optionality tomorrow. Strategy's next move will reveal the real plan. If that cash goes into BTC, the corporate bid returns. If it goes to buybacks, the playbook has changed. #StrategyBuildsCash SKHY current price is 1241, rising intraday from 1182 to 1252, a single-day increase of 6%. Market rumors say that all products in related stores on the Taobao platform have been removed and operations are planned to be terminated.
Essentially, this store is a third-party authorized dealer whose contract has expired and will not be renewed, not SKHY headquarters withdrawing from the Chinese retail market. The stock price has not only resisted pressure and declined but has strengthened, also confirming that the market does not view changes in consumer retail channels as a core negative: SKHY's revenue focus is on B2B industrial, server storage, and HBM supply businesses, with consumer retail accounting for a very low proportion of total revenue.
From a technical indicator perspective:
SAR=1151 forms support below; EMA21=1222, EMA55=1206, price stands firmly above all moving averages, short-term trend turns stronger.
RSI6=61.85, in a neutral to slightly strong range; KDJ indicator J value surged to 108.6, K=82.24, D=69.06. J value breaking through 100 indicates strong short-term upward momentum, while also signaling the market has entered a short-term extremely overbought zone.
If the price holds above 1250, it is expected to continue testing higher; if it pulls back after a surge, around 1200 will be a key support level.
Comparing the internal trend of the storage sector horizontally, SKHY's trend is significantly stronger than Micron and SanDisk, the latter still oscillating below 1500. Benefiting from the high prosperity narrative of HBM, capital is willing to give a higher valuation premium.
However, doubts remain: if the overall storage sector enters a correction cycle later, relying solely on the sentiment boost from the HBM theme,#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level? Bitcoin $BTC surged past 80,000 these days, reaching an intraday high near 81,200 for the first time since mid-May. But it didn't hold, now it has fallen back to fluctuate around 78,000 to 79,000.
This rally was rapid, gaining more than 20% in a week. The reasons are basically a few things: The US Treasury said it will increase repurchases of long-term bonds, the market sees this as a form of easing, and money is flowing into assets like Bitcoin; the spot ETF attracted nearly $2 billion last week; shorts were squeezed out, and the more it rose, the more people bought.
80,000 is a round number, good for appearances, but it hasn't truly become support yet. There are still trapped positions near the May high, the rise was too fast and overbought, so some taking profits is normal. These days, attention is also on the US PCE inflation data and the Jackson Hole meeting; once news comes out, the price may fluctuate again.
Whether it can hold, don't just look at the round number. First see if it can hold around 79,000, then see if ETF money continues to flow in. If it holds, there’s a chance to look at 82,000 and 88,000; if it doesn't, a pullback to 75,000 to 76,000 is very likely.
It's still far from last year's high of 126,000, so it's a bit early to call a new bull market. Short-term volatility will be large, don't chase the highs, watch volume and capital flow, which is more reliable than focusing on round numbers. Top influencer's Meme coin promotion post deleted at lightning speed: The harvesting pipeline behind controlling 40% and rapidly cashing out 2425 SOL
According to moonsollx on-chain monitoring, after Kylie Jenner, a top influencer from the Kardashian family, posted a promotion for the Meme coin KYLIE on Twitter, the behind-the-scenes manipulation team used a set of precisely coordinated related wallets to instantly withdraw about 2425 SOL at the peak of retail investors' follow-up buying liquidity. Even more shocking, the project team had secretly controlled nearly 40% of the token supply before posting, and the promotional post was quickly deleted afterward.
This celebrity endorsement combined with lightning-fast pump-and-dump and post deletion once again exposes the harsh exploitation tactics behind celebrity Meme coins.
In this mature assembly-line operation, retail investors are not facing a fair community launch celebration but a liquidity trap designed from the code deployment stage. The manipulators use automated tools to disperse massive chips into dozens of unrelated shadow wallets in advance, waiting for the moment when social media traffic reaches tens of millions to trigger a coordinated cluster sell-off, directly exchanging retail investors' real money for SOL and withdrawing it.
Deleting posts afterward, feigning ignorance, or blaming account hacks have long become standard disclaimers for the manipulators. In this brutal jungle lacking fundamental support and transparent lock-up constraints, celebrity influence is wielded as the sharpest tool to stab fans.
Not blindly buying celebrity-endorsed tokens is the iron rule for survival on-chain. Before rushing into any hot token, checking chip concentration and position overlap is far more effective at preserving principal than blindly following the crowd. Jane Street holds 5% of SanDisk, and the most interesting part of this news is not "the quant giant is bullish on storage".
The 13G filing seems more like a passive disclosure and does not mean they are stepping in to transform the company. But the market will interpret it together with the AI storage narrative, which is quite subtle. Because a stock like SanDisk is no longer just a traditional storage cycle trade; it has been incorporated into a combination of AI data, inference demand, SSD price increases, and high valuations.
I would be more cautious. Jane Street's move could be a directional bet, a trade structure, or related to hedging. External investors find it hard to read the full intent from a single holdings disclosure.
But it does remind the market that AI storage has shifted from an industry chain topic to an asset that Wall Street capital is willing to repeatedly price. Going forward, volatility will only increase, not become gentler.
#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视 Today's market in one word: waiting.
The crypto market is undergoing a broad pullback and consolidation. $BTC is hovering around 78,000, $ETH is gathering momentum at 2,450, and $SOL has retreated from 100 to 97. The US stock AI sector continues to face pressure, with NVDA down seven consecutive days; tonight's earnings report will be decisive, and storage chips have been hammered for three days straight.
Two major variables are intensively unfolding this week:
1. Nvidia's earnings report tonight (early morning August 27 Beijing time): revenue expected at 92 billion USD, guidance will determine global AI chain pricing.
2. Jackson Hole meeting tomorrow (August 27-29): Kevin Warsh's speech, interest rate signals will decide the direction of risk assets.
These two events will set the tone for the market in the coming week:
- NVDA beats expectations + dovish Jackson Hole = crypto and US stocks soar together
- NVDA misses expectations + hawkish stance = crypto and US stocks get hammered together
- One good, one bad = continued divergence and volatility
ETFs are still seeing continuous inflows (BTC has had positive inflows for 7 consecutive days, ETH has seen 1.23 billion inflows over 30 days), institutions have not exited. The short-term pullback is due to deleveraging and profit-taking, not a deterioration of fundamentals.
Trading advice: control your position before major events, don't bet on direction. Wait for data before deciding; staying alive is more important than being right.For over a decade, one idea has stood out to me: Combine Bitcoin’s strength as digital capital with Ethereum’s programmable rails. BTC has won as the premier digital asset. Ethereum pioneered on-chain capital markets. Instead of forcing competition, why not integrate the best of both? Think of it like HTTP built on top of TCP/IP. The internet scaled when powerful applications were layered on top of a secure base. Crypto may follow a similar path. If Bitcoin gains modern rails, native yield, and 24-hour level, first time potential energy decay!
On August 22, BTC at $78,000 had a realized profit 24-hour peak of $100 million; on August 22, BTC at $80,600 had a peak of $181 million.
The price is higher, but the realized profit is not higher. Those who have been following my tweets should know what this means, right? Come on, tell me loudly....
Right! — It represents potential energy decay.
Normally, when the price soars, market trading should also be more active. Profit-taking emerges, funds are absorbed, and the price is pulled up; this is a sign of strong demand.
Conversely, if there is an "upward divergence," it means the driving momentum is starting to weaken.
But "weakening" does not mean an immediate "drop"!
It can also be broken by the next wave of demand or a secondary divergence. Until the price holds but the potential energy seriously shrinks.
At least what I can see now is that there was a little problem before $81,000.
It needs to be emphasized that this is not telling you to short!
Rather, if the "small problem" gradually grows bigger, then those who missed the previous opportunity should pay attention and hurry to find a chance to get on board.Bitcoin surged from 62,000 to 80,000, then broke through 81,000 before starting to turn down.
Next is to see if it will consolidate and continue to rise, or if it will drop further. I've laid out everything I can see; you decide for yourself.
First, clarify one thing: this round is a V-shaped rebound from the 62,000 low, so all positions above 80,000 are chips trapped at higher levels this year, a natural selling pressure zone. This is different from a one-sided new high market.
Reasons to be bullish:
1) ETFs are pouring in money crazily. In August, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $2.72 billion, a single-month high this year, with $1.92 billion just last week. BlackRock clients net bought $1.33 billion last week, the largest single-week since the October high last year, buying for 7 consecutive days.
2) Price is above all moving averages, MACD is expanding above zero line, mid-term momentum is still there.
3) The macro narrative of "financial repression" is fermenting, which is a long-term positive for BTC and gold.
Points to be cautious about:
1) The biggest buyer hasn’t moved yet. Strategy (Saylor) hasn’t bought a single BTC this round, sold $2 billion in stocks, and hoarded $6.69 billion in cash. The person who used to disclose holdings weekly has been silent for weeks. Without this structural buying, this round is very different from before.
2) Whales near 80,000 are cashing out crazily; the profit-taking volume is even larger than when BTC first hit 120,000.
3) Volume dropped 20% during the pullback, the rise lacks strength; RSI surged to 82 then fell back, clearly overheated in the short term.
4) Prediction markets’ probability of "touching 82,500 in August" dropped from 60% to 37% in one day.
Key levels to watch:
Upside: 81,200 (current high this round) / 82,000 (Bollinger upper band plus prediction market threshold), only holding above these qualifies for further rise.
Downside: 78,000 (current support) → 74,700 (10-day MA) → 72,000-73,000 (VWMA + previous breakout level) → 69,000 (Bollinger mid-band + 200-day MA, the real bull-bear dividing line).
Two scenarios, no firm conclusion:
Mid-term structure still leans bullish, moving averages aligned bullish + continuous ETF inflows, as long as funds don’t withdraw, this pullback looks more like a shakeout.
But short-term overheating + whale selling + Saylor’s absence + crowded perpetual longs, a deeper pullback (to 74k or even 69k) before rising again is quite probable.
Ultimately, direction depends on three things: whether ETF capital inflows continue, whether volume returns on the rebound, and whether Saylor comes back to buy. These three variables are more important than any chart lines.
Consolidation is not scary; what’s scary is volume shrinking while big players are selling. Watch the money, not the sentiment. The inherent impression that Strategy has given the market in the past is that issuance = buying BTC, which is a very critical institutional bullish indicator in the crypto space. However, in this recent round of ATM issuance, the funds raised were not directly used to buy Bitcoin but instead significantly increased the USD cash pool. This change deserves our attention.
Core change in the event
This continuous fundraising through issuance did not immediately increase BTC holdings. The company's USD liquidity has been pushed close to $6.7 billion, split into two pools: one part is specifically used to pay high dividends on preferred shares and repurchase discounted preferred shares to resolve rigid financial pressure; the other part, the USD-Cash pool, retains the option to buy Bitcoin opportunistically in the future, but no longer blindly goes all-in on the coin price when raising funds.
The underlying logic has shifted from aggressively hoarding coins regardless of price to dynamic management balancing cash and BTC. The annual preferred share dividends are a huge rigid expense. If the company held only Bitcoin, a sharp price drop would cause a cash flow crisis, so now it prioritizes building a safety cushion.
Two possible future scenarios
Scenario 1: Restart buying coins after a pullback (optimistic)
If BTC experiences a clear retracement and market sentiment cools, this large amount of idle cash on the books will be released to enter the market. Large spot buy orders landing will provide solid support to the market, helping stabilize and rebound the price.
Scenario 2: Holding cash for a long time without action (risk signal)
If the coin price continues to surge and Strategy remains inactive, it indicates management believes the current price level lacks cost-effectiveness, and there is a lack of incremental institutional buying support. The sustainability of the high-level market is questionable and prone to a pullback after a surge. Fundamental Research Report $BONK / Bonk (Meme/Payment) $3.20
Conclusion first: Bonk ($BONK) overall score 52/100, rating Narrative over execution. Breaking down into three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Bonk (token $BONK), Meme/Payment sector. Focused on Solana Meme dog. Comparable to WIF, PEPE. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average transaction size $50-500/month, settlement requires USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees undisclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Bonk $3.00B, WIF undisclosed, PEPE undisclosed. FDV: Bonk $4.20B, WIF undisclosed, PEPE undisclosed. Annual revenue: Bonk $2.00M, WIF undisclosed, PEPE undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Bonk undisclosed, WIF undisclosed, PEPE undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Overall: fundamentals solid (score 52/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to note: short-term large unlocks dumping, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. Core financial indicators deviating more than 30% require reassessment.
This concludes this research report. If you find it useful, please follow.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitIran Sanctions, Talks & Crypto
Iran–Oman talks are reviving hopes of a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor, sending oil lower and easing immediate inflation fears. At the same time, Washington has expanded sanctions targeting Iran-linked networks, keeping geopolitical risk elevated
$BTC is holding near $79K, while $ETH remains around $2.5K. If diplomacy advances, falling oil and softer risk premiums could support crypto. But renewed escalation or tighter sanctions could quickly reverse sentiment$SPCX SPACEX wireless plan may boost T-MOBILE
Bank of America states that SpaceX's wireless ambitions could benefit T-Mobile, tower companies, and spectrum value.
Building a competitive nationwide network will require huge investments, more spectrum, and years of infrastructure deployment.
Bank of America believes that SpaceX's satellite connectivity complements existing mobile networks rather than replaces them, potentially creating collaboration opportunities for T-Mobile and tower operators.
The current issue for SPCX is: the technical aspect is improving, but unlocking expectations remain. Fundamentally, SpaceX is indeed a good company, but from the contract structure perspective, unlocking is always an unavoidable issue. When positive news keeps emerging but the price reaction is muted, it usually means the market is waiting for a more definitive signal—either the unlocking impact has been fully digested, or there is a sufficiently significant new development to break the deadlock. $BTC $ETH The typical "reverse curse" for traders is very common, not just with ETH, but with almost all cryptocurrencies: short positions enter and the market keeps falling, but as soon as you exit, it rebounds; long positions open and immediately pull back, resulting in losses as soon as you enter.
It's not that the market is specifically against you; there are several practical reasons behind this:
1. Your entry timing happens to hit a short-term sentiment turning point
You can't resist opening a position often after the market has moved a lot and sentiment has reached an extreme. For example, when prices have been falling continuously and panic is at its peak, you short in line with the trend, but at this time, short-term selling pressure has basically been released, and the main players easily harvest the short positions driven by sentiment; conversely, after continuous rises, you chase longs just as bulls take profits. Your trading impulse itself signals a short-term market reversal.
2. The margin trading error tolerance is compressed
With leverage, it's hard to withstand normal fluctuations. Even if your overall directional judgment is correct, small counter-moves can trigger forced liquidation. After liquidation, the market moves in the originally predicted direction, creating the illusion that "as soon as I leave, the market obeys."
3. Profit and loss memory bias (survivorship bias)
Profitable trades are easily forgotten, while the memory of precise opposite losses is infinitely amplified, subjectively forming a strong feeling that the market always goes against you whenever you place an order.
Simple and practical adjustments:
- Avoid chasing trades during extreme spikes or drops; wait for the market to consolidate and oscillate before looking for opportunities;
- Significantly reduce leverage to allow yourself a normal volatility error margin;
- $ESP Oh my god, is this how they shake out the market? That's ruthless. I found an address controlling the market on the chain; basically, the buying and selling are all done by the same address. From this perspective, esp might still have a lot of room to grow. Brent Crude and WTI Crude futures extended their declines, falling more than 3%. Progress was made in talks between Iran and Oman, boosting market optimism about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for navigation. The geopolitical risk premium previously priced into oil prices was quickly squeezed out.
Energy prices retreated, easing inflationary pressure expectations, which is favorable for the recovery of global risk asset sentiment. Risk appetite in the US tech and crypto markets was boosted, with risk assets like BTC and ETH receiving sentiment support accordingly. Currently, this is only an expectation of improved navigation for market trading; related arrangements have not yet been formally implemented, and the Middle East situation still carries the possibility of fluctuations, with the market liable to reverse at any time.After the painful halving from the $126,000 all-time high, whether the current market rebound marks the start of a new bull run or just fireworks before a capital retreat depends on several key real-world variables:
First is the progress of regulatory implementation. The Senate vote on the U.S. "Clear Act" and the SEC's regulatory draft on exemptions for crypto asset financing will directly determine whether Bitcoin can officially enter the "compliant asset" category, thereby kicking off the true "institutional bull" second half. Second is the real stance on macro liquidity. The Federal Reserve's policy choices under inflation and U.S. debt pressure, as well as whether miners' cash flow from transitioning to AI businesses can materialize, will determine the market's cost of capital.
For investors, the current market is a complex "patchwork." In the greed zone of overheated sentiment, blindly chasing highs or panic selling is inadvisable. A rational strategy is to first clarify the tier of assets held: understand Bitcoin through a macro framework, measure RWA by real returns, test infrastructure income by growth stock standards, and strictly treat Meme coins as highly volatile sentiment positions. In this highly volatile market, maintaining rationality and precise tiered pricing ability is the key to long-term survival. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 As the core PCE data release approaches, the capital structure of BTC and ETH shows a very realistic divergence.
Many institutions choose to switch their positions from ETH to BTC for hedging on the eve of macro data. BTC is supported by ETF spot buying, withstanding the selling pressure caused by capital waiting; ETH relies more on on-exchange speculative funds, and once market risk aversion rises, it is prone to independent weakness.
Many people have the misconception that if the market doesn't crash significantly, ETH won't undergo a deep correction. But during the data window period, capital prioritizes shrinking high-elasticity assets, so even if $BTC consolidates sideways, $ETH will experience a larger pullback. The risk of sharp spikes before and after the data release is extremely high, so leverage positions should be protected in advance, and avoid heavy bets on the data outcome. One of the hot topics on OKX right now revolves around Anthropic's valuation of the total addressable market (TAM) at over $30 trillion. This topic has made it to the Top 3 Trending on OKX, with hundreds of thousands of views and hundreds of posts. But the point worth analyzing is not the $30T figure. The bigger question is: If AI can truly scale from a software tool to the infrastructure for the entire knowledge economy, which industries will benefit — and where does Crypto stand in this cycle? 🧠 Something happened yesterday: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the launch of an "economic abandonment operation" against Iran. Five sectors are fully covered: digital assets, gold, shipping, aviation, and technology. Sixty Iranian entities have been added to the sanctions list.
Yellen's wording was tough—"Economic D-Day," aiming to cut off all of Iran's economic lifelines. Any entity helping Iran launder money will be kicked out of the dollar system.
How did the market react? Oil prices fell 2.3% that day, Brent at $92, WTI at $85, breaking a six-day winning streak. The market's message was: you're just talking, haven't really taken action yet.
The Iranian rial has dropped to a historic low, 2,020,000 rials to 1 dollar. On the other hand, Iranian miners hold between 3% and 7% of the global Bitcoin hash rate. The U.S. Treasury had already sanctioned Iran's largest exchange Nobitex back in June.
Then today's latest news came out—U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is guaranteed. Oil prices continue to fall, U.S. oil drops below $80, and Bitcoin falls below 79,000.
A week ago, BTC was still at 64,000, ETH at 1,800. The market was trading on the logic of "sanctions escalation and safe-haven buying." A week later, sanctions really arrived, BTC fell back to 78,000, ETH fell back to 2,420.
What was positive news turned into negative. Now the market is caught in a complex game, and attitudes toward the news are increasingly ambiguous. The complexity of this market and the subtlety of the capital game have gone beyond what simple positive or negative explanations can cover.
$BTC $ETH $CL
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 GOLD is maintaining a high-level oscillation above 4600, with institutional funds continuing to increase their positions. Citi has raised the 0-3 month target price to 4800 USD, and the 6-12 month target is set at 5000 USD. A fund manager under Fidelity International has doubled their gold holdings in the past three weeks, with the position already reaching the fund's 5% allocation limit. Gold ETFs increased holdings by more than 28 tons last week, marking the largest single-week increase since January this year. Institutions collectively raised price expectations, accelerating the inflow of incremental funds.
GOLD and BTC essentially price the same underlying logic: the US dollar credit is being continuously consumed. The current US debt scale has exceeded 40 trillion, with annual interest payments already surpassing 1.17 trillion. When founders of leading global hedge funds publicly recommend allocating GOLD and BTC as hedging tools, the mid-to-long-term allocation direction has become clearly apparent. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $BTC $QQQ
In July, during a live stream discussing Bitcoin and Nasdaq exchange rate conversion, I shared a chart showing the long-term comparison of the BTCUSD/NAS100 exchange rate.
1.
At that time, BTCUSD/NAS100 was around 2, now it is around 3.
In the previous cycle, Bitcoin's exchange rate dropped by 72%.
At the beginning of July, in this bear market cycle, Bitcoin has fallen about 65% relative to the Nasdaq.
2.
This chart is very interesting. Friends familiar with Bitcoin cycles can clearly see that the 4-year cycle is still valid.
From 2021 to 2025, the exchange rate peaks are all near 5.
The recent bull market's exchange rate peak did not break much higher.
Also, Bitcoin's exchange rate drop in each cycle is decreasing, with smaller fluctuations.
3.
Based on these signs, I predicted that the exchange rate would start to rebound in July and August, greatly increasing the probability that Bitcoin had bottomed out, leading to a relatively smooth upward trend.
Bitcoin already showed signs of a bottom reversal, so I increased my regular investments and actively tried bottom-side long positions on Bitcoin.
Looking back now, all those predictions came true.
If you don't understand the capital flows in various markets or the complex institutional data, just looking at this Bitcoin exchange rate chart basically lets you understand the current position of Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq. US July PCE is coming, the most critical indicator for the September Fed meeting, is a turning point approaching?
Heavy data is coming. Tonight, the US July inflation data PCE will be released. This is the Fed's most favored inflation data, and tonight could very well be a turning point for the current tech industry.
Why do I say this? Because in the past two weeks, the US long bond storm has swept the globe, with US Treasury yields once climbing to 4.7. The high Treasury yields have caused a significant drop in global tech sectors—not only US, Japanese, and Korean stocks, but also our large A-share tech sector has been falling continuously. Tonight may bring a turnaround because the most important factor for the entire US Treasury yield is inflation expectations, and tonight's July PCE will provide the answer.
The market expectation now is that the overall PCE will drop from last month's 3.7 to 3.6, while the more critical core PCE, which excludes energy and food, is expected to remain flat at 3.3% compared to last month.
If tonight's data exceeds expectations, then the US's two consecutive months of inflation decline will be interrupted, and the Fed is very likely to raise interest rates at the upcoming September meeting. In that case, a major drop tonight would be unavoidable. Not only tonight will see a big drop, but the tech sector could be pressed down hard for some time, meaning the end of this round of AI sector correction would be far off.
Of course, this is a low-probability event. I believe a more likely scenario is that tonight will bring moderately good data. This brings us to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics director, who has continuously released inflation data below expectations this year, whether CPI or PCE, for five consecutive months. Is this a coincidence? Behind this is actually a political task assigned by the current administration.
Currently, US Treasury yields are at a critical point. Although Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has recently taken a series of market rescue actions—raising the bond repurchase limit on one hand and verbally stating that the Treasury's $900 billion TGA account deposits can be used to buy back Treasuries—the market is not buying it. Instead, it believes Yellen is playing tricks and that US credit is losing trust.
Including Stanley Druckenmiller, Yellen's mentor at Soros Fund and financial mentor to both her and Gary Gensler, who just yesterday published a heavy article in the Wall Street Journal criticizing Yellen's market-distorting rescue actions. He believes the current Treasury yields are a wake-up call to the Treasury. The US fiscal deficit is as high as 6%, double the so-called 3% target. He says the current yields reflect your deficit level; the more you try to suppress it, the more you will just be giving away money, and the market will increasingly distrust US credit.
It can be seen that the path of US market rescue has reached its end. Going forward, there are only two ways: one is relying on economic data, especially softening inflation data; the other is relying on Gensler to restore market confidence. Only these two paths can save US Treasuries.
Therefore, tonight's PCE data is a critical path—only good, not bad. If tonight's data is better than expected, I think the key will be the core PCE data, which may come in below the 3.3% expectation, possibly at 3.2 or even 3.1.
If it really comes in below expectations as predicted, then Treasury yields will fall further from the current 4.65, and the entire AI sector will catch a breath, likely marking a turning point at a phase low.
At the same time, this news is also positive for gold and Bitcoin, and can temporarily relieve pressure on global assets.
Waiting quietly for Gensler's speech at the global central bank annual meeting this Friday.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not represent investment advice. Please be aware of risks. Let's talk a bit about today's market. BTC has been fluctuating repeatedly around the 80,000 mark. Yesterday, BTC surged to 81,280, surpassing 80,000 for the first time in three months, but it didn't hold and fell back to around 78,800 the same day. Today, it continues to hover around 79,000, down about 1.9% in 24 hours. After a 23% rise over the past week, short-term profit-taking is quite normal. The ETF side is still buying aggressively. Yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $314 million, marking the seventh consecutive day of net inflows. BlackRock's IBIT contributed $284 million, and Fidelity's FBTC added $15.4 million. The cumulative net inflow for August has already reached $3.03 billion, just $390 million shy of the monthly record set in October 2025. The Ethereum ETF has also had seven consecutive days of net inflows, with $179.8 million added yesterday; BlackRock's ETHA contributed $146 million. But there's a problem—the ETF is buying heavily, yet BTC's price hasn't followed suit; instead, it has fallen back from above 81,000 to around 78,000. Incremental funds are entering, but sell orders are also flooding out simultaneously, resulting in intense competition around the 80,000 level. Liquidation data is also quite dramatic. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw $621 million liquidated, with $321 million on long positions and $300 million on short positions. The largest single liquidation occurred on Bitget, where a BTC position worth $103 million was liquidated. Both longs and shorts are being cleaned out, indicating significant market divergence. There's an on-chain signal worth noting. Whale Garrett Jin added 600 BTC against the trend when BTC dropped to around 79,000 $MU babala opened a short position again! MU entered short directly at 930!
A few days ago, I went long at 936, but today I opened a short at 930. It looks like it's oscillating back and forth, but the structure of the two trades is completely different.
At that time, MU's 930–950 was still an hourly-level support zone, and the price near support was suitable for trying a rebound; but recently MU has fallen steadily from 1036, with rebound highs continuously decreasing, first to 990, then pressured down to around 947. The original support has gradually started turning into resistance.
Trading is not about being in love with one direction; when the structure changes, my direction changes accordingly.
On Monday, MU opened sharply lower near 966, hit an intraday low of about 888, and finally closed at 910; on Tuesday, although there was a rebound with a high of 947, the close was only 933, failing to firmly hold 950–960. Today before the market opened, it fell back below 930 and is currently oscillating around 925.
So I opened a short at 930, not because I am bearish on Micron long-term, but betting that this rebound repair will fail and the price will retest 910 and 888.
From the hourly structure, MU is still in a downtrend phase after peaking at 1036. Yesterday's high near 947 can temporarily be seen as resistance for this rebound; as long as the price cannot firmly hold 947–950, the bearish structure remains intact.
✔ Entry position: 930
✔ First resistance: 936–947
✔ Strong resistance: 958–970
✔ First take profit: 915–910
✔ Second take profit: 900–888
✔ After breaking 888: continue to target 870–850
✔ Stop loss position: near 950
Entry at 930 with stop loss at 950 means a risk of about 20 points; if it ultimately falls to 870, the potential space is about 60 points, with a risk-reward ratio close to 1:3, fitting my trading logic.
The real acceleration signal for this short is when the price breaks below 924 and the rebound fails to recover; once 910 is lost again, the Monday low of 888 is very likely to be retested. If 888 cannot hold, it means this rebound is just a downtrend pause, and the next target will be 870 or even 850.
Of course, Micron's long-term fundamentals are not bad, with AI servers, HBM, and DRAM price increases still supporting storage demand. But in the short term, the market trades not on long-term stories but on capital realization, valuation pressure, and sector volatility around Nvidia's earnings.
Nvidia's earnings today are the biggest risk. If the results exceed expectations, the entire AI and semiconductor sector may rally collectively, so this trade must have a stop loss and absolutely no adding to shorts during an upward move.
If after the open MU recovers back above 936 and the hourly chart breaks above 947, I will admit this rebound is stronger than expected and stop loss to exit immediately.
But as long as 930 cannot be reclaimed, and 924 and 910 continue to fail, the bears still have room for another round of selling.
The same 930 level could be a long entry a few days ago and a short entry today.
Price has no stance; babala only stands on the profitable side! $ZRO experienced a sharp 20% surge in the short term due to ATLAS news, but the token's value capture durability is directly challenged by insufficient derivatives and RWA real trading volume.
After the news-driven 20% spot price increase, buying shifted from sentiment-driven to liquidity lock-up. The protocol's 75% fee buyback and burn mechanism combined with staking/Gas attributes directly tie the token's supply-demand structure to the trading volume of cryptocurrencies, perpetual contracts, and tokenized assets carried by ATLAS.
Scenario One (Bullish Projection): If the on-chain trading volume of perpetual contracts and RWA supported by ATLAS continues to expand, the spot buybacks formed by 75% of fees will gradually absorb the profit-taking pressure above the market.
This scenario triggers if the growth rate of actual on-chain transaction fees covers the release pace of early profit-taking. At this point, the increase in staked locked shares will further reduce circulating liquidity, boosting spot buying elasticity.
Scenario Two (Bearish Projection): If on-chain trading volume fails to effectively expand, the accumulated profit-taking from the 20% surge and the high-leverage long positions in derivatives will turn into net selling pressure.
This scenario triggers if the buyback and burn amount is far below market expectations, with capital flow shifting from net spot inflows to derivatives liquidation exits. If liquidity depth rapidly contracts, the price will retrace to the pre-announcement starting point.
The invalidation condition lies in whether staking rate and Gas consumption become decoupled. If $ZRO staking volume continues to increase but actual Gas consumption generated by the protocol lags, it indicates funds are only engaged in short-term speculation rather than real arbitrage, causing the rebound structure to fail.
In the next 7 days, key observations include the actual daily average capture of ATLAS on-chain derivatives and RWA trading fees, as well as changes in the ratio of $ZRO spot capital net inflows to derivatives open interest.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Before the opening of Jackson Hole this week, all eyes were actually fixed on one person—Kevin Walsh.
This guy took over as Fed Chair in May. At the July FOMC, the rate was held steady at 9:3, with three voters directly advocating a rate hike. After the meeting, he refused to provide a clear path, causing the market to have significant doubts about whether the Fed still values transparency. So at this Wyoming annual meeting, everyone is not just watching whether his tone is hawkish or dovish, but whether he can finally articulate the reaction function "data comes in → how the Fed moves" in plain language for the first time. If he can't, rate hike expectations will continue to drift in the fog, and stocks, bonds, and currencies will all wobble accordingly.
In the middle of this is the July PCE report released on Friday (August 26, US Eastern Time)—this is the Fed's most trusted inflation gauge. The market expects overall year-over-year inflation around 3.6%, with core inflation stuck near 3.3%. If the numbers explode, Walsh won’t be able to cover up a hawkish interpretation with his "art of ambiguity"; if the numbers soften, his "waiting for data" space will truly open up.
Looking at the BTC chart, it’s simple: the price is stuck oscillating between 78,000 and 80,000, unable to break above the upper boundary or truly break below the lower boundary. The weekly bounce from 62,000 to above 78,000 has already run through half the sentiment, and the remaining half depends on macro fuel—
• If Walsh gives some dovish signals (or if PCE stumbles first), holding above 78k and pushing to 80k–82k is the high-probability scenario;
• If he continues the "let the market hike for me" ambiguous philosophy, or if the PCE+CPI chain picks up again, a pullback to the 75k–76k support zone is the normal move.
Don’t get ahead of the rhythm. PCE will clear the way on Wednesday, Walsh speaks on the 28th, and NVDA earnings will also intervene in between. This is a typical "news on top of news" compressed consolidation. Betting direction early is like handing market makers your fees; wait for the shoe to drop, see which side leads volume, then decide whether to follow.
My big picture hasn’t changed: the bull market isn’t dead, but the driver has shifted from "narrative" to "liquidity pricing." Going forward, BTC will follow not how loud Walsh’s voice is, but what happens after his speech—how 2-year Treasury yields move, how the dollar index behaves, and whether real interest rates move down. If these three knobs are turned correctly, 80k is not the top; if turned the wrong way, even 78k won’t hold.
(This is just a casual rundown, not a trade call; leverage at your own risk.)
$BTC $ETH
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 It's completely messed up!
A harsh rule in the crypto world: negative news that crushes the market and creates blood-stained chips means the rally is just beginning 🤔
Looking back at some classic cases:
$ZEC was first placed in Binance's watchlist, delisted from multiple platforms, then relisted. After panic selling, it went on to achieve tens of times gains.
$AAVE faced cross-chain ETH bad debt risk, the market was full of bearish sentiment, but after hitting a deep bottom, it quickly reversed and rebounded.
$BONK encountered a voting attack event, causing panic selling of chips, and after a brief drop, it surged steadily.
$STX had a hard fork with 99% community support but was still put on Binance's watchlist, causing the price to drop sharply. Now it is strongly rebounding. Many predict that once the watchlist label is removed, a new rally may start.
There is a market strategy: quality projects first release negative news to create collective panic, wash out retail chips, let the main players acquire blood-stained chips, and then launch rallies of tenfold or even tens of times.
But be clear: not all negative news is a shakeout; many negative news are real failures.
The key to distinguishing is whether the project has a real narrative, continuous development, and community consensus. Purely relying on negative news to crush the market without fundamental support will lead to a bottomless abyss.
Negative news is not necessarily an opportunity; panic is the true test of human nature.
Do you think $STX can replicate the rallies of the previous coins after being removed from the watchlist? 👇
#ZEC spot ETF first day trading volume $14.8 million #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be fulfilled? #JaneStreet holds 5% of SanDisk.Bitcoin's two on-chain traffic indicators improved simultaneously in the second half of August: the realized market value relative change turned positive for the first time since late May, reaching +0.21%, in sync with Bitcoin's rebound from the August low to $79,100; the 30-day apparent demand has exceeded new issuance for six consecutive days. The direction has reversed, but the magnitude remains weak—the current capital inflow ranks in the lowest 3-4% among historical positive readings, and the apparent demand ranks in the lowest 10% among observations above 1. $BTC #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The change in direction is more important than demand intensity. This is an improvement but does not yet confirm a strong new state; the next step must be a sustained expansion in magnitude. If the two indicators cannot further expand, the sustainability of the current rebound remains in doubt. $BTR ’s 200%+ move looks less like a fundamental recovery and more like a liquidity event. The key risk is timing: a major unlock is scheduled for Aug 27, with roughly 19M tokens entering circulation. After a vertical pump, that supply can become heavy sell-side pressure. Weak on-chain activity, concentrated CEX liquidity, extreme turnover and shifting narratives make this a high-risk setup. I’d avoid chasing the breakout. If trading it, lower leverage and strict invalidation matter more than thCan altcoins really survive long-term? The market rumor that 99% of participants ultimately lose money is not alarmist.
Take $BICO as an example: its price dropped from a high of 22.8 U to a low of 0.011 U, a decline of over 99.9%. Even if the exchange hasn't delisted it and the market occasionally shows pulse-like rallies, it is essentially a typical pump-and-dump cycle orchestrated by manipulators. The manipulators use small rebounds to create an illusion of market recovery, attracting retail investors who are trying to bottom-fish or speculate on a rebound. Once retail funds enter, they dump the price again. This cycle can repeat multiple times. The speculative psychology of retail investors eager to make quick money is easily exploited by these schemes.
Looking at LAB, it experienced a full cycle from a hundredfold surge to a cliff-like crash. On-chain data shows that the vast majority of tokens are concentrated in project internal addresses, with extremely thin liquidity in the circulating supply, and the price is almost arbitrarily controlled by the manipulators. Many people wonder: is the current price the bottom?
Referring to BICO's trend, theoretically $LAB also has the possibility of falling to 0.01 U. Altcoins do not have an absolute bottom; what you see as an oversold price is just a temporary price point during the downtrend. Any deterioration in project fundamentals, token unlocks, large holder sell-offs, or market sentiment can trigger a new round of decline.
The vast majority of altcoins lack a stable, grounded business ecosystem; their value comes entirely from market speculation. After the speculation cycle ends, they enter a long-term downtrend, and occasional rebounds are just windows for manipulators to sell off.✅What does everyone think about this?
The US July PCE inflation data will be officially released tonight at 20:30 Beijing time. The market consensus expectations are:
Overall PCE YoY: expected 3.6%, previous value in June 3.7%, a slight decline
Core PCE YoY: market divergence between 3.2%~3.3%, previous value 3.3%
Core PCE MoM: expected about 0.18%, higher than June's 0.13%
BTC market forecast logic:
If Core PCE ≥ 3.3% (above expectations): inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, Fed rate hike expectations for September rise, US Treasury yields rise, USD strengthens, BTC faces short-term pressure and correction;
If Core PCE ≤ 3.2% (below expectations): inflation decline is more obvious, rate cut expectations rise, favorable for risk assets, BTC is relatively positive;
If exactly 3.3% meets expectations: market fluctuates and digests, impact is relatively limited.
Additional background:
There is no rate hike decision today; only this PCE data will directly affect the interest rate pricing at the Fed meeting on September 15, making it a key leading indicator for BTC's macro trend in the second half of the year.
⚠️The above is only a macro data expectation interpretation and does not constitute investment advice. Japan's Interest Rates Return to 1996 Levels: Arbitrage Liquidation Storm Approaches, Can the Bitcoin Decoupling Narrative Withstand the September Test?
The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision is approaching, and market expectations for another rate hike in September continue to rise. Japan's benchmark interest rate is gradually nearing its highest level since 1996. Alongside this, the global yen arbitrage trades worth trillions of dollars are once again overshadowed by the threat of forced liquidations.
Many investors are still debating whether Bitcoin has already decoupled from traditional finance, but I must remind everyone that in the face of the physical laws of liquidity withdrawal, no risk asset can remain unaffected.
The underlying operation of yen arbitrage trades involves large global funds borrowing cheap yen, leveraging to buy U.S. Treasuries, U.S. tech stocks, and even crypto assets. When the Federal Reserve prepares to cut rates while the Bank of Japan hikes rates in the opposite direction, the bidirectional narrowing of the U.S.-Japan interest rate spread will directly trigger yen appreciation. For macro hedge funds, a surge in borrowing costs immediately triggers market-wide deleveraging, and Bitcoin, which trades 24/7 with abundant liquidity, often becomes the first liquidity withdrawal machine that institutions sell off to realize cash.
In the short term, the so-called decoupling is more of an emotional bullish vision. As long as global liquidity contracts, Bitcoin will still be the first to bear valuation pressure. But over the longer term, central bank interventions and sovereign debt dilemmas are precisely the footnotes of fiat currency credit erosion. The deep pit caused by deleveraging is actually a golden window for long-term capital to accumulate hard assets. Geopolitical easing boosts risk appetite, BTC oscillates at high levels awaiting directional choice
Currently, BTC is oscillating around 78770 USDT, with the total crypto market capitalization at approximately 2.73 trillion USD.
On the macro front, expectations of renewed US-Iran talks have cooled geopolitical risk premiums, causing crude oil prices to fall nearly 2% to 80.47 USD/barrel. Inflation concerns have eased, supporting global risk assets. US stocks closed higher all day, crypto-related assets performed strongly, with Robinhood surging over 8%, indicating an overall warming of risk appetite.
From the perspective of contract liquidation pressure:
- Upper resistance: A large amount of short liquidation pressure is accumulated in the 80000‑81500 range. Once 80000 is effectively broken, it is very likely to trigger a short squeeze.
- Lower support: Dense long liquidation levels exist between 77000‑79000. If the price effectively breaks below the support near 78000, leveraged long positions may accelerate liquidation and exit.
The core battleground for short-term long-short competition is locked in the 78000‑79000 range. The breakout direction of this range will guide the short-term market trend. Coupled with major upcoming events this week such as Nvidia earnings, PCE inflation data, and the Jackson Hole symposium, market volatility is likely to increase significantly. Contract traders should strictly control leverage positions.Market Flash｜Western Digital Shareholder Note Conversion Transaction Completed
According to SEC public filings, Western Digital shareholders will carry out a note conversion operation:
Convert notes with a face value of **$191,000,000 into cash worth $192,700,000**.
Market Interpretation
1. This is a note redemption and conversion operation at the shareholder level, not a company issuance or buyback action. It is a debt realization by secondary market holders and will not directly change Western Digital's equity structure in the short term.
2. As a core storage hardware manufacturer, Western Digital's stock price movement is highly linked to the AI computing power industry chain, NAND Flash, and HDD chip cycles, and it is also an indirect upstream and downstream target in Nvidia's AI supply chain. This news is mainly a capital-level operation and has no substantial impact on the company's fundamentals or product shipments; it is more of a capital liquidity action.
3. Extended linkage: Storage sector stocks (SK Hynix, Micron), AI computing power-related assets, and computing power-related crypto tokens will only show market linkage when there are supply-demand or price changes in the storage industry. This note conversion news is unlikely to drive market movement and is considered a neutral event. Every time the market pulls back, a voice appears right on time, like an old friend visiting but always making people feel a tight sense of emotion—"Bitcoin is dead." This phrase has circulated in the crypto community for fifteen years but has never truly been fulfilled. 🌀 Looking back at past cycles, this narrative seems like a reverse indicator. In 2011, Bitcoin was declared "dead" from around $30, then moved toward $1,000; In 2015, the price hovered around $200, with widespread bearishness, but the market only reached a peak of $20,000; In 2018, during the $3,300 winter, pessimism spread, but in the end, we saw the brilliance of $69,000; In 2022, the market struggled around $16,000, the same words echoed again, and the price then rose to $126,000. 📈 Each cycle starts at a different point, with different prices and macro environments, but the appearance of fear and the narrative framework are almost identical, like documents out of a copier. In 2026, when prices return to around $60,000, that familiar voice appears again. Where will it go this time? No one can give a definite answer, but history at least reminds us that fear itself is often better at creating panic than the market. 😌 Interestingly, the current market is not alone in Bitcoin. The volatility in crude oil prices caused by Iran sanctions is affecting the pricing logic of global risk assets; The U.S. Treasury's discussions on Treasury buybacks also affect liquidity expectations. These macros