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No one would get scammed this morning, right? With the funding rate like this, who would dare to go long? The negative funding rate surge on Sandisk is not caused by short positions opening but by long positions closing. Normally, in a negative funding rate scenario, a price increase would push the funding rate back to positive, but Sandisk is doing the opposite, indicating that longs are retreating, and the remaining shorts can't push the price higher anymore.#财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？
The two giant companies' earnings reports released on the same night evoke mixed feelings. Both are all in on AI, yet their results are worlds apart, prompting the market to reassess the true substance of the AI narrative.
Microsoft has exceeded expectations across the board. Azure cloud business's annualized revenue has historically surpassed $100 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate hitting 43%. Copilot paid seats have exceeded 30 million. AI investments have concretely translated into enterprise orders, revenue, and profits. Although capital expenditures remain substantial, a clear business loop is now visible. Computing power is no longer just a cost-burning item. The post-market stock surge is the market's most direct feedback. While investing heavily in computing power infrastructure, Microsoft is simultaneously generating cash flow, and investors are willing to pay for this tangible AI story.
In contrast, Meta's situation is much more delicate. Its Q2 revenue did grow, and AI optimization did strengthen its advertising business, but the Q3 revenue guidance fell below market consensus, dampening enthusiasm. The most worrying aspect is cash flow. Under massive AI infrastructure investments, free cash flow plummeted 91% year-over-year, shrinking to a very low level. Meta still maintains a high capital expenditure plan of $130–145 billion, continuing to aggressively scale computing power. So far, AI mainly empowers its core advertising business and has yet to generate a second growth curve. Massive investments have yet to show corresponding returns, and the capital market's tolerance for "burning cash to bet on the future" is rapidly declining.
This situation brings an important change to the market. Previously, the logic was simple: whoever invested more in GPUs would dominate the AI era. Now, the trend has shifted. People no longer just look at the scale of investment but care more about when the money spent will monetize. Even within the AI sector, clear differentiation is emerging. Entities that can convert AI into revenue and profit will attract capital preference, while those with grand narratives but delayed returns will face valuation cuts.
This divergence among U.S. tech giants will also indirectly affect the crypto market. AI-themed tokens previously followed the U.S. AI stock rally in waves, but going forward, capital will become more selective, only favoring projects with actual implementation progress. AI coins that rely solely on storytelling and hype will find it increasingly difficult to attract funding.
When participating in the market, we must learn to discern and not rush in just because of the word AI. No matter how grand the narrative, it ultimately comes down to real revenue and output. When the tide recedes, the key to how far one can go is whether value can truly be realized.
$META $MSFT Cooling inflation just landed in the middle of a Fed that's still leaning hawkish, and the market can't agree on what it means.
US June PCE fell 0.1% month over month, its first negative monthly print since 2020. Core PCE rose just 0.1% for the month, below the 0.2% expected, holding at 3.3% year over year. The headline annual rate eased from 4.1% to 3.7%. On paper, that's clean disinflation.
Then the growth data split the room:
· Advance Q2 GDP grew just 1.5% annualized, well short of the 2.1% forecast
· But real final sales to private domestic buyers rose 3.9%, the strongest since early 2023
· Jobless claims ticked up to 197,000
So the headline says "slowing," the internals say "demand is fine." The drag came from government spending and inventories, not the consumer. That's the whole tension.
This didn't happen in a vacuum. The Fed just held rates at 3.5-3.75% for the sixth straight meeting, a 9-3 vote, with three officials pushing for a hike. Softer prices weaken the case for more tightening, but sticky domestic demand keeps those hawks in the room. Odds of a September hike now sit near 64%, up from 56% a week ago.
Here's the part most people are skipping. While crypto and stocks read the soft data as relief, the bond market did the opposite. The 30-year Treasury yield pushed above 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, a signal that long-term investors doubt the Fed is doing enough to contain inflation.
Two markets, two verdicts:
· Bitcoin firmed toward $65,000 and the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, pricing in relief
· Long-end yields spiked, pricing in inflation risk
They can't both be right for long. And one negative PCE print isn't a trend yet, so July's data gets the final say on whether this is real disinflation or just an oil-driven blip.
When stocks and bonds are telling you opposite stories, which one do you trust to call the next move?
#SoftPCEStrongDemand 🤬 Family!! What exactly happened yesterday??? Why did it suddenly pull so fast!!
I'm completely stunned!!
I was holding a good short position, but then a big bullish candlestick suddenly struck me in the middle of the night!!
It jumped straight from 999 to 1436, a full 400 points!!
Who could withstand that???
📊 The end of this order:
Direction: Empty 🐻
Average opening price 1,234.38
Average closing price 1,285.53
Leverage 15x isolated margin
Final profit: -4.69 USDT
Final yield -64.14%
The market was once well-stocked, but suddenly it was aggressively pumped up in the middle of the night,
They directly cut my stop-loss and then kept pushing up!!
If I had cut my losses later, I would have lost even more......
This is really incomprehensible!!
📰 It was only after seeing the news today that I realized:
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
So that's how it is!!
These two major data points directly changed market expectations:
1. PCE turns negative month-on-month—inflation has cooled!! This indicates that the Fed no longer needs to raise rates, and may even cut rates earlier!!
2. GDP growth slows to 1.5%—the economy is not overheating, expectations for a soft landing are increasing, and market risk appetite is picking up!!
Together, these two figures provide a major boost for risk assets!!
Inflation has dropped, the economy is still growing but not booming, so the Fed can rest assured about cutting rates.
Funds flowed directly back into technology stocks and the semiconductor sector!!
😫 This loss is actually not unfair:
Looking back, I did overlook the macro risks.
1. Only knew to go with the trend and shorted, without paying attention to macro data timing — if I had known in advance that PCE and GDP data would be released, I would definitely have reduced my position or taken a wait-and-see approach
2. Only focusing on candlesticks without paying attention to the broader environment — technical aspects are only superficial; macro factors are the fundamental force determining trends
3. Stop-loss set too close — At this level of rebound, 15x leverage simply can't hold up; either set a larger stop-loss or lighten the position
💡 The lesson this wave taught me:
1. Be cautious before releasing macro data — Remember the release times for big data like PCE, GDP, and non-farm payrolls, and manage your positions in advance
2. Going with the trend is true, but you must step on the right rhythm—the right direction doesn't guarantee profit, and the wrong timing will still get you washed out
3. Always leave yourself room — position management is more important than direction judgment; only by staying alive can you have a chance
😔 But I won't give up:
I lost this single one, but I accepted it.
It's not that the direction is wrong, it's the wrong rhythm, or the risk isn't well controlled.
Every loss tells me:
This market is always more complex than you imagine.
You think you've seen the trend clearly, but in fact, you've only seen the tip of the iceberg.
📢 I want to say to my brothers:
When trading, you need to look at the technical side, the news side, and the macro side too.
Don't be like me, focusing only on the candlestick and ignoring the bigger picture.
PCE turning negative and GDP slowing down—data at this level,
It can change the entire market trend.
Next time, I'll remember to check the calendar in advance.
Next time, I'll remember to reduce my position before the data release.
Next time, I won't make the same mistake again.
🙏 This is a real loss, I admit it!!
But he refuses to admit defeat!!
Adjust your pace and keep fighting!!
Everyone, did you get blown up this round?
💬 Now, let's talk about this data:
PCE turned negative month-on-month, and honestly, this data is quite significant.
Cooling inflation means the Fed has more policy flexibility.
Previously, the market was worried about "higher for longer," but now that inflation has subsided and expectations for rate cuts are rising, it's great news for tech and semiconductor stocks.
Additionally, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%, indicating the economy is making a soft landing with no recession risk.
With this combination of strategies, it's no wonder risk assets don't rise!!
So this rally isn't orchestrated by the manipulators—it's real cash flowing back.
I didn't understand it before, but now I do.
But even if you understand it, it's useless—the order has already exploded.
He could only blame himself for not preparing his homework in advance.
Next time, I won't make this mistake again.
💪 Keep settling and learning!!
$SNDK
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
The release of major data has formed a typical combination of cooling inflation and weakening economies, directly disrupting previous market bets on a rate hike in September, but it should not be simply interpreted as a one-sided bullish signal.
Core Facts Summary:
Overall, PCE turned negative month-on-month, and inflation temporarily declined; The annualized GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 1.5%, significantly below expectations.
Key reminder: This PCE weakness is largely due to the oil price correction, with core PCE still well above the 2% target, and the stickiness of endogenous inflation has not completely disappeared. Meanwhile, consumption and corporate investment remain resilient; the economy is only slowing down and has not yet entered recession.
Short-term positive for risk assets
Expectations for rate hikes cooled rapidly, easing upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, easing concerns about aggressive tightening and providing sentiment buffers for risk assets like BTC and ETH.
There are medium- and long-term constraints
The Fed is caught in a policy gap: inflation hasn't fully reached its target, so it doesn't dare to switch to cutting rates easily; The economy continues to cool down, yet they dare not raise interest rates rashly.
This means liquidity is difficult to ease quickly, and the market is likely to shift from a one-sided trend to a data-driven wide oscillation.
My independent judgment:
Short-term sentiment has been restored, but don't immediately start a bullish frenzy.
This round of inflation decline is unpredictable; the Middle East geopolitical situation remains at a peak, and if oil prices rebound again, inflation expectations will quickly return.
Biggest misconception: Do not mistake a single month's negative PCE growth as a long-term inflation turning point.
After rebounding based on positive data, focus on monitoring sustainability.
In a volatile pattern, the continuity of the pulse market driven by news is limited, so it is not advisable to chase rallies at high levels. Continue to track changes in core services inflation and employment data.
Do you think this set of data will completely end the possibility of a Fed rate hike?#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
The US macro core data released last night showed a very contradictory economic situation: on one side, inflationary pressures continue to ease; on the other, economic growth has clearly cooled. This divergence has directly reshaped market rate hike expectations and caused various asset categories to perform in completely different markets. By combining a full set of official data and real-time market feedback, we break down the true fundamentals behind this round of data and the trading logic of subsequent assets.
Looking at the growth data that the core market is focused on, the preliminary annualized growth rate of US Q2 GDP was only 1.5%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 2.1% and also below the previous 2.1%, clearly signaling a slowdown in growth. However, breaking down the sub-structure shows that economic resilience has not completely disappeared. Excluding net exports, inventory, and government spending, domestic private final sales saw quarterly growth of 3.9%, the highest since the beginning of 2023.
Personal consumption data also showed divergence: June's monthly personal spending rate was 0.3%, in line with market expectations, but it fell significantly from the previous 0.9%, indicating a cooling of monthly consumption momentum. In the second quarter, the quarter-on-quarter rate of real personal expenditure reached 3.2%, far exceeding the market expectation of 2.3% and the previous value of 0.5%, indicating that real consumption demand remains strong after excluding inflation, though the short-term monthly pace has slowed, and the sustainability of future consumption still needs further observation. In addition, the current U.S. initial jobless claims data remains at a low level of 197,000, and the overall job market remains stable, which is the core support that the economy has not fully weakened.
Changes on the inflation side are the core highlight of this data and are also key factors influencing market sentiment. As the Fed's core inflation indicator, the US PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month in June, marking the first monthly negative since 2020. The year-on-year increase also fell from 4.1% to 3.7%, with overall data in line with market expectations. The main reason for this PCE turning negative month-on-month is the sharp drop in oil prices following the US-Iran ceasefire in June, which drove energy inflation lower.
Core PCE data also continued to cool, with June core PCE up 0.1% month-on-month, below the market expectation of 0.2% and the previous 0.3%, marking the smallest monthly increase in seven months; Year-on-year data remained at 3.3%, slightly down from the previous 3.4%, just in line with market expectations and the second highest reading since October 2024. Currently, overall inflation remains close to twice the Fed's 2.0% policy target, so it is still too early to completely clear out inflation. On a quarterly basis, the annualized quarter-on-quarter rate of core PCE in Q2 was 3.4%, a significant drop from 4.4% in the previous quarter, indicating that the trend of cooling inflation is continuing.
This set of macroeconomic data, both hot and cold, has directly rewritten the Fed's rate hike pricing. Before the data was released, the market priced the probability of a rate hike in September at 68%, which fell back to 61.4% after the data was released. The previously priced 63% rate hike probability has now been fully recalibrated. Inflation continues to cool, greatly weakening the need for the Fed to raise interest rates immediately, but the strong resilience of domestic demand has provided some support for policy-tightening support, further intensifying the market tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
From a policy logic perspective, a single monthly data report is not enough to reverse the Fed's overall policy stance; the Fed's decision-making core relies on consecutive months of trending data and will not adjust policy pace based solely on monthly performance. Moreover, the Q2 GDP figures are only preliminary figures, and further data revisions will follow. Coupled with the July geopolitical tensions driving oil prices to rebound, CPI data for July and August still have room for volatility, and further data on inflation trends will require further data verification. Currently, the core market debate centers on whether this PCE turning negative month-on-month is the starting point for a downward inflation trend or a one-off phenomenon caused by short-term oil price fluctuations. The answer to this question requires the latest data from July to provide a definitive answer.
The overall fundamentals can be summarized as: the U.S. economy is slowing down, but it has not completely weakened. The core logic of current market trading has shifted from expectations of a soft landing to a market narrative of long-term high interest rates, rather than a recession logic. Inflation cooling is basically locked in no rate hikes in September, and the possibility of rate cuts within the year can be largely ruled out. The Fed will keep the current rate unchanged, which will become the benchmark policy choice going forward. Even though the Fed's July decision had three dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike, the release of this PCE data has basically dispelled market expectations for short-term rate hikes.
On the market front, the direct trigger for this round of US stock market rebounds is the cooling of interest rate hike expectations, but from a fundamental perspective, this rally can only be defined as a temporary rebound, and there is currently no basis for a trend reversal. With macro data hedging between bulls and bears, the market overall showed caution. The four major perpetual contracts—BTC, ETH, gold, and SNDK—all showed slight pulses after data release, but the gains quickly retraced, with limited overall volatility. Only SNDK showed a slight rebound, with gains of less than 1%, while the rest remained largely flat, fully reflecting a wait-and-see sentiment.
The short-term trends and key support and resistance levels for sub-assets are now very clear. In crypto assets, BTC's high of 65,000 today failed to break through on the advantage of inflation, indicating weak bullish confidence. The short-term resistance range is between 65,000 and 66,200, with key support levels below 64,800, 64,500, and 64,200. If it breaks below the core support, a slight pullback is likely to begin. ETH's trend is relatively weaker, with a 24-hour high of 1936 and resistance at 1950 and 2000. 1900 is a short-term core defense level, and if it falls, it is highly likely to test 1872.
Gold maintains a range-bound pattern in the short term, with the main trading range locked between 4078 and 4095.
SNDK, the storage sector stock, was the strongest performer after this round of data. The cooling interest rate expectations directly benefited its valuation recovery, and the intraday rebound was relatively firm.
Although BTC has bottom support from cooling interest rates, it lacks sufficient upward momentum, making it difficult to break out of a one-sided upward trend. The core reason is that the 10-year Treasury yield has not shown a significant decline; as long as long-term yields remain high, risk assets will find it difficult to sustain a strong rally.
The key points to watch in the market going forward are very clear: tomorrow night the initial jobless claims data will be released, and next week's nonfarm payroll data will be the biggest fundamental event of the period. Currently, the market will repeatedly switch between recession trading and rate-cutting trades, with volatility likely to rise, and overall market uncertainty persists.📊 $XRP Liquidation Flash Report (July 31)
According to liquidation data, short sellers be careful, the dog whales are grinding you down...
Liquidations in the past 1 hour totaled about $43,200
Long liquidations about $22,700
Short liquidations about $20,500
Liquidations in the past 4 hours totaled about $95,600
Long liquidations about $69,400
Short liquidations about $26,100
Liquidations in the past 12 hours totaled about $471,400
Long liquidations about $150,800
Short liquidations about $320,600
Liquidations in the past 24 hours totaled about $669,100
Long liquidations about $194,300
Short liquidations about $474,800
From the $XRP liquidation data, the recent long-short gap is not large, direction remains unclear; starting from 12 hours ago, short liquidations surged significantly, the short squeeze continues to escalate. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get liquidated.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 31
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative," but rather the "efficiency of spending" — from the Fed’s internal split to the contrasting fortunes of Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing and new pricing power is forming.
🏛️ Fed’s three votes for rate hike: a split unseen in a decade
In early July 30 Beijing time, the Fed voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Cleveland Fed’s Harker, Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari, and Dallas Fed’s Logan voted for a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned. The Dow plunged over 1100 points immediately. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to judging whether action will be taken in September.
📈 Microsoft cuts capital expenditure against the trend: after-hours up 8.5%
Microsoft delivered better-than-expected results: revenue $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; Azure revenue up 43% year-over-year, fastest growth in four years; full-year Azure revenue surpasses $100 billion for the first time.
What really ignited the market was the capex guidance — lowered from the previous estimate of about $190 billion to $175 billion. After-hours stock price surged 8.5%. Against the backdrop of Google’s stock plunge due to increased spending guidance, Microsoft’s "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta’s record revenue but plummeting stock: the cost of AI money burn
Meta reported on the same day: revenue $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. But net profit fell 14% year-over-year to $15.85 billion; capex floor raised from $125 billion to $130 billion; free cash flow only $784 million, a nearly four-year low. After-hours stock price once plunged over 10%.
On the same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative," but the "efficiency of spending." The rare internal split at the Fed signals policy path uncertainty; Microsoft’s capex cut triggered a stock surge, signaling that "cost reduction" in AI investment is more favored than "increasing spending"; Meta’s record revenue but stock plunge shows the market punishes narratives with input but no return. The old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming. #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌
#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% July 31 US-Japan Joint Intervention in the Yen Exchange Rate Incident
1. Core of the incident: The US and Japan rarely joined forces to suppress the depreciation of the yen. Japan implemented exchange rate intervention by buying yen and selling dollars, while the US used the "exchange rate check" tool in the foreign exchange market.
2. The essence of the exchange rate check: It is a "real inquiry" initiated by the central bank or treasury to major foreign exchange market makers, requiring them to quote buy and sell prices of the local currency at a specific scale. The process is not announced in advance and involves no actual orders, but it has strong deterrent power.
3. Source of deterrence
◦ Zero cost: No need to use real money, yet it can quickly send intervention signals to the global market, with an effect comparable to direct intervention involving hundreds of billions in funds.
◦ Signal significance: It means the authorities have completed intervention preparations and may implement them at any time. Meanwhile, the US has rarely directly intervened in exchange rates since 1995, so its participation effectively provides strategic endorsement for the joint intervention.
4. Impact of the incident
◦ Short term: The yen will experience a significant rebound due to short-covering, with an effect far stronger than Japan intervening alone.
◦ Long term: It cannot change the fundamental interest rate differential between the US and Japan (high rates in the Federal Reserve, low rates in Japan), and the intervention effect will gradually weaken as the market absorbs it.
5. Other related matters: South Korea also conducted exchange rate intervention by selling dollars and buying won during the same period. Although not part of the G7 currency system, there is a high probability of three-party coordination.
6. Market trend: After this incident, the linkage, uncertainty, and risk in the international financial market, especially the foreign exchange market, will significantly increase.
What impact does this have on $BTC $ETH? Let's discuss in the comments.$UNI On July 29, 106,000 tokens were burned, with an annualized burn rate of 6.1%, equivalent to about $170 million. Deflation expectations are expected to squeeze circulating supply in the short term. KOL sentiment is 10:0 bullish across the board, making it the most extreme in the direction consensus among the tracking assets that day, with very thin short liquidity. The catalyst comes from the dual drivers of Robinhood Chain launch and the V4 proposal, with burn volume heavily dependent on the initial trading heat of the new chain. If the new chain's daily active users and trading volume significantly decline in the coming week, the current burn rate will be difficult to maintain, and the pricing support for the deflationary narrative will need to be reassessed.
#美军空袭伊朗, oil prices surged and then retreated, #银行业联名施压, CLARITY stablecoin terms may be renewedA few days ago, Panda Bro (@0xCryptoChan) posted a post pointing out:
Median Realized Price (median cost of Bitcoin purchase) is approximately $62,748.
This is on-chain data.
Seeing this data, I suddenly thought:
The 200 WSMA from the market trading data I did a few days ago is also close to that level.
So, here's an interesting question:
Near the bottom of historical cycles, do on-chain coin holding costs and long-term price equilibrium lines often gradually converge?
So I conducted a small experiment:
Observe two completely different data systems side by side:
One from on-chain:
Median Realized Price
(Actual Holding Cost for Investors)
One from market trading:
200WSMA / 300WSMA
(Long-term price equilibrium)
As of July 30, 2026:
BTC Price:
≈ $64.6k
Median Realized Price：
≈ $61.7k
(Different on-chain data sources and UTXO statistical methods may vary)
200WSMA：
≈ $63.1k
300WSMA：
≈ $54.9k
Interestingly, the on-chain cost model and the traditional price moving average model are giving similar structural signals.
A simple explanation:
One is to observe the "investor's buying cost,"
One is to observe the "long-term market price memory."
When the two begin to converge, the market may enter an area worth watching.
Perhaps this is what they call resonance between data.
There's another interesting part.
Currently, some classic cyclical indicators (MVRV, NUPL, STH/LTH, ETC.) do not provide exactly the same signal as this cost structure indicator.
This also reminds us:
There is no "all-purpose indicator" in the market.
Different data observes different dimensions of the market:
Some people look at valuation, some on holding costs, and some on price cycles.
(Personal research, not investment advice)Good morning, everyone! Today is Friday, and it's also the last day of July
Last night, risk assets saw a significant rebound overall. The latest U.S. inflation data has cooled down, with overall PCE year-on-year falling from 4.1% to 3.7% in June, and core PCE slightly declining from 3.4% to 3.3%.
However, overall inflation has dropped significantly, mainly due to falling energy prices. Core inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, so the market remains divided on future monetary policy.
In the US market, Microsoft's earnings report was strong, with its stock price rising over 15% in a single day, driving a collective rebound in the Nasdaq, S&P, and semiconductor sectors. In early trading today, Japanese and Korean tech stocks also saw a significant recovery, indicating that short-term risk appetite has indeed recovered.
However, it should be noted that this rebound is more like a recovery in sentiment after a previous sharp drop and does not mean that market risks have been completely eliminated. Recently, traditional stock and derivatives markets have been highly volatile. AI hedge fund Situational Awareness has suffered severe losses on high-leverage investments and was forced to sell most of its public equity portfolio. This indicates that once the market misjudges direction, high-leverage funds are still prone to concentrated liquidation.
In the crypto market, Strategy's net loss in the second quarter was about $8.2 billion, mainly due to book losses from falling Bitcoin position prices. Compared to the financial losses, I pay more attention to its recent actual operations.
Strategy has not continued to buy Bitcoin for several consecutive weeks and has sold about $216 million in BTC to pay preferred dividends and replenish cash reserves. At the same time, the company has also retained plans to liquidate up to $1.25 billion in BTC.
This means that strategies that previously supported market buying have now shifted from only buying without selling to prioritizing cash flow and debt management. In the short term, this will weaken market expectations for continued institutional buying and may also put some pressure on Bitcoin.
Regarding ETFs, the latest trading day saw a net inflow of $46.3 million for crypto ETFs, indicating a slight return of institutional funds; However, over the past five trading days, there has still been a net outflow of about $341 million, so it is still unclear that institutions have fully shifted to going long.
Back to the market, Bitcoin is still fluctuating around $65,000. The rebound in US and Asian markets has helped crypto sentiment to some extent, but Strategy selling coins, temporary ETF outflows, and market deleveraging risks will still limit short-term upside potential.
Personally, I think the market will still be oscillating slightly upward today, but for now it seems more like a recovery rally. Therefore, further observation is needed to see if the market will truly reverse
Below BTC, watch around $64,000
Below ETH, watch around $1880
Below SOL, watch around $73
Overall, macro sentiment has somewhat recovered, but institutional funds have not fully returned. For the market to further open upward momentum, it still needs to see whether BTC can effectively break through and hold above $66,000.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% I truly believe the market has given us a "gift from God."
Most AI stocks have dropped -50% from their all-time highs, with some even down -75%, yet people have not bought in.
Let me first explain why we are selling, then explain why this is a generational wealth buying opportunity:
1) Hyperscale cloud service providers (such as $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META, etc.) are expected to spend about $700 to $850 billion+ on AI data centers, chips, and infrastructure this year.
However, investors are increasingly frustrated, as this spending has yet to translate into corresponding revenue or profit growth at the expected pace.
Analysts describe it as an "air pocket": construction is certainly underway, but dollar gains and monetization (especially for some of the largest spenders) are still in the early stages or uncertain.
The earnings response amplified this: Alphabet raised its capital expenditure guidance (some reports reported as much as about $205 billion), and Tesla warned of a "year of massive capital expenditure," triggering a sharp sell-off.
However, I think we will soon realize that such massive capital expenditures are well justified.
2) As demand for high-bandwidth memory and related components increases, this has led to shortages and soaring prices.
I know this sounds bullish, but most investors don't see it that way, lol.
While this benefits pure memory/storage stocks (like $MU and its peers), it also raises the cost base for everyone else: think hyperscale cloud providers, device manufacturers (for example, $AAPL raising some product prices due to rising component costs), and the broader supply chain.
Higher costs directly raise concerns about profit margins and doubts about the sustainability of spending speed.
Although this has helped companies like $MU and AI enablers as a whole, they have also been hit.
3) AI-related stocks (especially semiconductors and the "Big Seven") have seen huge gains over the past year.
Crowded transactions + high valuations make this group vulnerable to any disappointment or narrative shifts.
Therefore, recently we've seen profit-taking, capital rotation into less favored areas, and a period of sharp weekly declines led by chip stocks (SOXX, memory stocks), even as some software/enterprise AI stocks held their ground or rebounded.
Basically, it's a rotation of AI-powered stocks to AI-powered stocks.
I've talked about this before, and that's one reason I've rotated part of my AI empowerment holdings to AI beneficiaries (for example, $MU, $AAOI, $NBIS moving to $ZETA, $TEAM, $NOW).
4) Secondary catalysts and macro noise
First, geopolitical and macro risks—including oil pressures related to Iran and concerns over interest rates/Fed path—have intensified risk aversion. This is unfavorable for AI trading.
But in my view, most of it has already been priced.
Second, there are competitive concerns (efficient Chinese models may reduce computing intensity, or advances in Chinese equipment).
However, most of it is FUD (because they haven't done much yet), but for open-source models, this only benefits AI trading.
Third, the Central Bank Forum (BIS) and analysts compare the scale/pace of AI capital expenditure to historical frenzy, while also noting the existence of real demand.
People have always said the AI bubble is like the internet bubble.
But I have already written about why this is wrong. You can search for "internet bubble," and posts will appear in my profile.
So, most of these are either priced in or purely FUD.
This brings us to what I believe is the main reason we are actually selling.
5) Ultimately, it's all human psychology at work.
We've reached a point where people don't even know what they're buying.
But that doesn't matter.
If you buy a stock with some AI terminology or some cool elements (like "photonics," which is very important, but 99% of people don't know what it actually is, lol).
So, after a 1000% increase in a few months (look at $SIVE), selling is only a matter of time.
However, these companies do have solid investment logic.
They are the shovels of the gold rush.
So, as we examined, most of it was FUD.
I'll be the first to admit I didn't expect to drop this deeply, but now, I think 95% of the decline has already happened.
My price targets for some quality stocks are as follows:
$SIVE: 25
$INTC: 75
$NBIS: 140
$ASYS: 12
$AAOI: 75
$QCOM: 152
I will publish entry and exit records for stocks I believe have bottomed out or peaked.
But for now, we just need to buy a bit more and wait patiently.QQQ was at $690.59, while the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.4% in a single day, marking the third largest gain of the year. But while tech stocks are on a frenzy, Bitcoin is trading sideways near $63,000, barely moving. Arthur Hayes's answer is straightforward—liquidity is drained by AI.
(1) Market data
QQQ is currently $690.59, up 0.23% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of 663.30 and a high of 692.39. At the close of U.S. trading on July 30, the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.4% to 28,106 points, marking the third largest single-day gain of the year. The Philadelphia semiconductor index surged 8% in parallel, SanDisk gained over 25%, and CoreWeave rose 21%.
The storage sector rebounded collectively — SanDisk rose 47% in two days, SK Hynix jumped from 900 to 1,174, and Micron jumped from 706 to 917. Microsoft's earnings report was the trigger, but what truly ignited the market was the collective sentiment recovery across the tech sector.
(2) Arthur Hayes' viewpoint: AI is Bitcoin's liquidity black hole
In an interview, Arthur Hayes made a core point: Bitcoin's failure to rise as expected is not because liquidity has disappeared, but because liquidity has been absorbed by AI. He pointed out that although the dollar's M2 is expanding, the newly created liquidity has not flowed into the crypto market, but has been intercepted by massive capital expenditures from the AI industry.
From the end of 2022 to now, AI companies have raised about $1.5 trillion in debt, almost matching the incremental amount of US M2. Investors are frantically chasing AI tech stocks and related supply chains. Rising AI tycoons prioritize investing in real estate or diversifying into Nasdaq stocks, rather than flowing into the crypto market.
If the AI bubble bursts, cryptocurrencies will fall first because investors will sell liquid assets in response to margin call notices. However, he also believes that the AI bubble will eventually burst, and then funds will flow back into the crypto market.
(3) Nasdaq surges, BTC moves sideways—exactly the phenomenon Hayes described
The Nasdaq 100 rose 3.4%, QQQ jumped from 663 to 692; Philadelphia Semiconductor rose 8%, with storage stocks collectively rebounding violently; BTC fluctuated around 63,000, barely following the gains. Funds are flowing into AI stocks and tech stocks rather than the crypto market. This is precisely the data validation of Hayes's viewpoint—incremental funds are absorbed by the AI industry, so Bitcoin naturally cannot rise.
(4) Technical aspects
QQQ is currently near WMA5/10/20 (691/690/689), with moving averages starting to flatten. SUPERTREND shows support near 688.77, indicating that a short-term bullish structure is forming. 692 is short-term resistance; if it breaks through effectively, it could further test the 700-710 range. 663 is a recent bottom; if it falls below it again, the short-term bullish structure will be disrupted.
(5) Transmission to the crypto market
The surge in the Nasdaq and the violent rebound in the storage sector indicate that the AI narrative is shifting from "burning money anxiety" to "confirmation of AI infrastructure demand." But Bitcoin's sideways movement also shows that funds haven't flowed from tech stocks into the crypto market—at least for now. Arthur Hayes's perspective provides a framework for observation: as long as AI continues to drain marginal liquidity, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to emerge from an independent upward trend. If the AI bubble really bursts, the crypto market may first fall and then rise—first sold off as a source of liquidity, then profited from capital flows back.
The Nasdaq rose 3.4%, while BTC was still hovering around 63,000. It's not because Bitcoin isn't good, but because the money has gone somewhere else. Only when the "liquidity black hole" effect of AI weakens will Bitcoin truly take off.
$QQQ
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% "Bitcoin Market Morning Train: Core Data and Information Overview"
Friends, now is the time! BTC is now above 65,000, with a July gain of over 10%, but volume still can't keep up. Whether it can hold 65K remains to be seen.
Three opposing votes at the FOMC + PCE inflation cooling—the macro card is already played.
However, the market was as quiet as before a storm: $9.6 billion in options was settled today, the US-Iran war reignited, and the discount on Korean kimchi widened—three things were laid out one by one.
Quick overview of the BTC market
BTC is currently quoted around 65,200, having briefly surged above 65,000 overnight before slightly pulling back. The intraday low reached 63, rebounded after 199, and the 63K support held continuously. The Fear and Greed Index is 29, still in the fear range.
On the four-hour chart, both bulls and bears remain in a stalemate, with clear boundaries between resistance above and support below, volatility continuing to narrow, and a window of market reversal approaching.
Core data from the past 24 hours
In 24 hours, 243 million USD was liquidated, long positions 143 million yuan, short positions less than 100 million yuan, and short-term funds chasing highs were washed out again. The US dollar index fell below 101 to 100.84, while gold broke above $4,100. WTI crude oil is around $84-85, with a geopolitical premium still in place.
Market Entity Behavior
(1) ETF Institutional Capital Flows:
Yesterday (July 30), Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $50 million, ending a four-day streak of net outflows.
BlackRock IBIT contributed $89.8281 million and remains the absolute main player. Fidelity's FBTC outflowed by 43.0832 million, and ARKB by 14.6421 million. After ending four days of outflows, it has been two consecutive days of net inflows, but it is all supported by BlackRock alone.
(2) BTC inflows and outflows from exchanges:
Net flow on exchanges is close to zero, with inflows and outflows basically balanced, no large-scale selling orders, and no signs of liquidity tightening.
(3) Whales and Miners:
On-chain data shows that there is currently no capitulation selling, and whales are still continuously buying BTC on dips. Miners' MPI is negative, with selling pressure at multi-year lows.
(4) Retail Investors' BTC Trading Situation:
The premium on Korean kimchi has expanded to -2.05%, with the discount expansion related to the government's confirmation that the crypto tax will be launched as scheduled in January 2027, with profits over 2.5 million won subject to a 22% tax rate.
This is essentially telling South Korean retail investors: if you don't sell now, you'll have to pay taxes if you sell next year. The discount has widened from -1.46% a day ago to -2.05%, with Koreans throwing their chips out the door.
(5) Order book pending data:
There is active support below 64K, and above 64.5-65K, fixed orders form a selling pressure wall. Long/short orders are balanced, with no obvious one-sided advantage.
Special attention today
First, $9.6 billion in Bitcoin options expire today.
This is the largest option expiry event in 2026, with a nominal value of about $9.6 billion, including $7.5 billion in call options and $2.1 billion in put options.
The $70,000-$72,000 range is concentrated with about $3.3 billion in bullish spread positions, which are highly likely to be zero at the current 65K price.
Only 5.46% of call options are in the money, while put options are in the money at 18.29%. The total gamma value of 43.6% will be reset at this expiration, and after market makers unhedge their positions, suppressed volatility may be released.
Second, the US-Iran war reignited, and the ceasefire ended after 48 hours.
On July 26, the U.S. and Iran briefly paused, causing oil prices to plunge 16% over three days. However, on July 29, Iran launched ballistic missiles at U.S. military bases in Jordan, breaking the informal ceasefire after 48 hours. WTI oil prices rebounded by more than 5%.
The geopolitical premium on oil prices will not easily fade; inflation expectations are closely tied to oil prices, and the logic behind Fed rate cut expectations is being reverse-priced by energy shocks.
Third, large-denomination stablecoin movements: about 500 million USDT was transferred from Binance hot wallets to Tether Treasury addresses.
The market interpreted this as a technical network switch (ERC-20 → other low-fee networks) rather than a liquidity withdrawal, so BTC did not experience significant volatility.
Fourth, liquidation risk: If BTC falls below $61,524, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CECs will reach $1.325 billion; if it breaks $67,712, the strength of short liquidation will reach $1.071 billion.
Core judgment
$9.6 billion in options delivery took place today; if a large number of call options are wiped out, bull confidence could be shaken.
However, a 43.6% gamma reset can also lift short-term price suppression from market makers. The direction may become clear after the delivery.
The renewed conflict between the US and Iran means that geopolitical risk premiums are being re-priced into asset prices. This logic is clear and rigid: the ceasefire is broken→ the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists→ oil prices remain high→ inflation expectations are rising→ Fed rate cut expectations are suppressed→ and risk assets are under pressure.
65K is the exam hall, not the finish line. Let option delivery land first, let the high-volume candlestick confirm the direction first.All the funds have flowed into the stock market, so no wonder the crypto world is stagnant—there's no liquidity left
In contrast, stocks are soaring wildly
BTC has been hovering around 64,000 for over a week. Opening OKX tokenized stock, SK Hynix, SanDisk, and Apple are rising every day
Funds are indeed heading that way. CoinDesk reported in Q2 that institutions are clearly shifting toward AI-driven stocks, with crypto assets seeing net outflows for three consecutive quarters. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $4.67 billion in Q2, marking the largest single-quarter outflow in history. The market capitalization of tokenized stocks surged to $2.3 billion in mid-July, doubling compared to March.
The reason isn't complicated.
After ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, invested in OKX, tokenized stocks effectively obtained Wall Street's "birth permit," and the market reacted immediately. Trading volume also picked up. On Binance, tokenized stock spot transactions reached $15.5 million in one week, and perpetual contracts exceeded $1 billion. US stocks have been rising, while crypto remains sideways. The S&P 500 has risen nearly 15%, BTC has dropped 14%. Money chasing stocks is not surprising.
I didn't move myself and wanted to wait a bit longer. If you want to chase stocks, don't sell all your coins to trade—keep some on both sides.
Let's talk in the comments: did you chase tokenized stocks this time or keep holding onto your coins? Profit surged 1814% + 60% capacity locked in 5-year long-term agreements, is the current storage decline purely an emotional sell-off?
Revenue reached 171.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 130%; operating profit was 89.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 1814%, with single-quarter profit already exceeding the combined net profits of 2024 and 2025.
But more worth noting than the numbers are several signals hidden in the earnings call.
First signal: Capacity is locked down.
Samsung plans to allocate 60% to 70% of total capacity to sign long-term supply agreements, with a base term of 5 years and rolling renewals. Customers pay upfront to lock in volumes for the coming years.
Agreements have been completed with five global data center customers, with another five in negotiation.
What does shortage mean?
This is what shortage means.
If something is not scarce, who would pay upfront to lock capacity? Who would sign a 5-year long-term agreement? Who would lock more than 60% of capacity?
And this is just one company.
Both Samsung and SK Hynix are doing this—and they say, "We find it difficult to meet all supply requests within available capacity."
This is even more convincing than the long-term agreements themselves.
Second signal: HBM is accelerating its catch-up.
HBM4 revenue in Q3 is expected to grow more than threefold quarter-over-quarter, with HBM4 accounting for over 60% of total HBM revenue in the second half.
The goal is to increase HBM market share to over 30% in the second half.
From 21% to over 30%, the HBM market is shifting from three players to four, becoming a reality.
Third signal: Shortage will last at least until 2028.
Samsung’s original statement: "Memory shortages in 2027 will be more severe than this year, and tight supply may continue until 2028."
The reason is simple—building a fab to production takes more than three and a half years, and meaningful capacity expansion requires a long time.
Fourth signal: NAND is also rising.
Server SSDs are expected to account for over 60% of Samsung’s NAND revenue, up more than 20 percentage points year-on-year.
V10 started production in August, and V11 trial production has begun.
Previously, the market thought NAND was less profitable than DRAM, but now it’s different.
AI is also driving NAND demand.
My judgment:
Explosive performance growth, long-term agreements locking volume, tight capacity, HBM catching up, NAND rising.
These are not stories; they are facts happening now.
Samsung and SK Hynix, despite high-intensity capital expenditures, still cannot fully meet all customer demands.
These companies themselves admit shortages will continue until 2028.
When the largest players in an industry say their capacity cannot meet demand, do you think it’s true or false?
When the market panics, it’s precisely the time to see the facts clearly.
From the leveraged ETFs launched at the end of May to regulatory restrictions, from Hynix to Samsung, a wave of extreme deleveraging shocks has pushed storage stock prices back to their original levels.
But what about the fundamentals?
Long-term agreements are still being signed, capacity is still expanding, and the gap remains.
Leverage has been cleared, chips have changed hands cleanly, the logic of storage hasn’t changed.
What has changed is sentiment, not facts.
$MU $SKHY $SSNLF #storage #semiconductor #chip #KoreanStocksSituational Awareness under Leopold
There are reports that he sold large public stock positions to Citadel
As a result, AI stocks rebounded sharply on the same day
$MSFT up 15.5%
$MU up 18.4%
LRCX up 18%
IREN rises 30.5%
The timing was just too coincidental
However, the entire increase should not be attributed to Leopold selling out
Microsoft's Azure growth of 43% is fundamentals
After a rapid drop earlier, short positions are filled in, which is the chip side
The two events happened to collide, forming this wave of rebound
It's not that AI demand surged overnight
The goods were all dumpedCurrent situation The 60-day ceasefire collapsed on July 8; fighting resumed for ~2 weeks Currently paused but no formal deal yet — Iran says it has no direct talks with the US, only talks with Oman over Hormuz Observed impact so far (actual data) When the ceasefire collapsed (July 8): $BTC fell ~2.25% to $62,115; $ETH fell ~2.57% Oil reacted ~6x harder than BTC (Hormuz directly ships oil/LNG; crypto doesn't move through it) Earlier de-escalation news (May-June): BTC rose ~5%, helping push it toPCE转负、GDP放缓，美股合约我却吃了一口大的。
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家人们，昨晚PCE数据出来那一刻，我正盯着SKHYNIX的盘面。
然后我看到了那条推送：
6月PCE环比-0.1%，2020年以来首次转负。
二季度GDP增速1.5%，远低于预期的2.1%。
数据一出，市场懵了三秒，然后开始狂奔。
SKHYNIX直接从我开空的位置拉穿，我那一单-60%爆仓，精准被送走。
但同一时间，我在美股合约上的多单，吃了一口大的。
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🔍 PCE转负，到底意味着什么？
很多人看到PCE转负，第一反应是"通胀降了，利好"。
但这次的数据，没那么简单。
通胀在降（PCE转负），经济也在降（GDP 1.5%），但消费还在撑着（二季度消费增速3.2%）。
数据组合很微妙：
· 通胀降温 → 加息必要性降低
· 但经济放缓 → 衰退担忧升温
· 消费依然强劲 → 暂时还没到衰退
市场最怕的不是通胀，也不是衰退，而是"滞胀"——通胀下不去，经济上不来。
这次的数据，至少说明通胀在往下走，暂时解除了滞胀警报。
对风险资产来说，这就是短期最大的利好。
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💻 美股合约上，我是怎么操作的？
在SKHYNIX爆仓的同时，我在美股合约上做了一个完全相反的操作：
做多科技股。
逻辑很简单：
· PCE转负 → 通胀降温 → 加息预期下降 → 科技股估值压力减轻
· 经济放缓但消费强劲 → 软着陆预期升温 → 风险偏好回升
· 科技股前期跌得够狠 → 超跌反弹空间大
数据公布后不到一小时，我的美股多单开始浮盈。
持仓到今天，收益已经超过了SKHYNIX爆仓的亏损。
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🤔 为什么SKHYNIX爆了，美股却赚了？
同一个数据，同一个时间，完全不同的结果。
问题出在标的的选择和波动结构上。
SKHYNIX是单币种合约，波动大、流动性相对差，一根针就能打掉所有止损。
美股合约是跟踪大盘的，波动相对平滑，不会出现"消息出来先拉一根针再走方向"的恶心情节。
同样的判断，在美股合约上能赚钱，在单币种合约上可能爆仓。
这就是我这次学到的东西。
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🎯 接下来怎么看？
PCE转负是短期利多，但中期压力还在。
美联储内部3票反对，9月加息概率已经到78%。
沃什说"必要时毫不犹豫加息"，这句话分量不轻。
我的策略：
· 美股合约：短期多头格局还在，但仓位会逐步减，不追高
· SKHYNIX这类单币种：轻仓，不扛消息，不持仓睡大觉
· 方向：短期看反弹，中期看震荡，长期偏谨慎
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💬 说句实在话
SKHYNIX爆仓的时候，我确实难受了一下。
但后来美股合约赚回来了，我才发现一件事：
同样的判断，换一个标的，结果天差地别。
不是因为判断错了，是因为选错了战场。
以后遇到宏观大日子，我会更谨慎地选择标的——选波动结构更友好的，而不是只盯着波动大的。
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家人们，你们觉得PCE转负之后，市场会怎么走?
$SKHYNIX
#PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5% 🚨 $BTC $COTI&$RE: A REGULATORY SHOCKWAVE THAT COULD TRIGGER A BULLISH RUNAWAY 🚀
The Australian internet regulator has just dealt a blow to the platform for failing to remove terrorist content. Litigation has already begun, and the market implications are enormous. 🚀 This is not just a fine; This is a signal that compliance-first projects like $COTI and $RE are becoming the only safe haven in the intensifying regulatory storm. 📊 The smart money is already taking positions in advance, assessing the consequences.
💡 When regulators tighten the screws, capital flows into protocols that provide transparency and privacy without legal risks. This shift is happening rapidly. 🔍 Are you staked in assets that benefit from the new order – or are you still using platforms that attract legal heat? 💬
⚠️ This does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️"Don't Laugh at DOGE's Decline; The Meme Sector's Barometer Has Never Changed It" $DOGE
If you say Dogecoin is "no one is playing anymore," check out Robinhood and Binance spot trading—DOGE's 24-hour transactions still exceed $200 million, thicker than a bunch of new memes combined.
Its current problem isn't a lack of hype, but that the hype has regressed into muscle memory: when Bitcoin pulls up, it rises by 1 point; when it crashes, it falls by 2 points. The DOGE/BTC exchange rate is hovering at a low level, just drinking the soup without the main dish.
But you need to understand one thing: every time meme sentiment restarts, the first thing capital thinks of is not the new dog, but the old dog.
Because it doesn't require education costs—even delivery riders know about "that dog coin."
The amount of on-chain whale unwinding and exchange net inflow volatility, when put into 170 billion coins in circulation, is just a splash.
I don't shout "DOGE back to 0.7," nor do I agree with "reset to zero."
Treat it like a thermometer for the meme sector: when it starts to rise relative to the big Bitcoin, holding at 0.08, and volume expands, it means retail investors' memories have been awakened; Right now, it's hibernation—veteran holders move their stools, while newcomers can just wait for it to call out first.
Don't hold a position above 5%, treat it as an entertainment stock, not as a faith to top up phone credit. 🦴$DOGE [Pharaoh Market Watch]
Bitcoin falls during the day and rises late—what's going on here?
Pharaoh bluntly said, Americans are buying, Asians are selling, two forces are wrestling, and whoever lets go first loses. The market has been quite interesting lately. During the day, the Asian session plunged right at the open, while at night, the US stock market started to climb. The same currency, two different attitudes—clearly distinguished.
The logic is actually very clear. In Asia, Korean stocks have been hit by circuit breakers several times. SK Hynix and Samsung have fallen so much that even their own mothers don't recognize them. Koreans are desperate to raise margins, and the liquidity crisis has spread to the crypto world, forcing them to sell large amounts to recover funds. Moreover, retail investors in China, Japan, and South Korea are naturally sensitive to the Fed's "open stop, hidden hawk" script, and at the slightest sign of trouble, they run faster than anyone else. On the US side, institutions are slowly accumulating shares through ETF channels, retail investors are allocation to Bitcoin as a substitute for tech stocks, and as soon as US stocks stabilize, they start buying.
Pharaoh feels that Asian sales may continue. The Korean stock market hasn't bottomed out yet, Changxin's IPO is still drawing blood, and the liquidity crisis won't resolve quickly. But this round of fundraising by U.S. institutions is also bringing in real money. In the short term, it's hard to say who will win or lose, but looking at the long term, who's buying and selling determines the direction of the next trend.
Remember, good orders are waited for, not chased.
But if you see a big bounty of 66,000-67,000 in the next couple of days, Pharaoh will still say: empty, empty, live in the palace!
Follow Pharaoh and never lose your way to wealth! $BTC $ETH $SNDK #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% 今天韩国股市的走势，可能让昨天割肉的人捶断了大腿。 KOSPI指数开盘直接跳涨11%，盘初继续上攻，涨幅迅速扩大至13%。权重股SK海力士涨24%，三星电子涨超20%——两根阳线直接把过去几天的跌幅吞掉了大半。 这是一场教科书级别的空头回补踩踏。 KOSPI从6月高点回撤近40%，市场极度超卖，加上监管层连续释放“稳定市场”信号——确认卖空禁令技术可行性、承诺限制杠杆ETF——空头被迫平仓，叠加散户抄底资金涌入，形成了正反馈式的拉盘。 昨天还在恐慌割肉的人，今天可能正看着屏幕发呆。 不过需要冷静一点的是——这是一次极度超跌后的技术性反弹，还是趋势反转的开始，取决于后续宏观环境、全球AI叙事走向以及韩国自身的去杠杆进程能否平稳推进。 今天涨多少不重要，重要的是接下来几天能不能撑住。 $SNDK $SKHYNIX $XSOXL #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入，财长为杠杆ETF道歉 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #美光暴跌后：是底部还是半山腰？ Guys, I'm chasing higher again. #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge sparks controversy. Last night, I saw SPCX secure a $1.6 billion big order and thought it was a win today, but as soon as the market opened, I followed suit. But soon after, it began to decline steadily. Now the orders are tightly trapped. To be honest, my mind was quite chaotic at this moment. I didn't know whether to keep holding on, replenishing my position, or admit the loss and exit. Can any experts help me analyze this? Is there still a chance for this trend? Give me some suggestions in the comments so I can pay less tuition. If a company gains more and more positive benefits but its stock price keeps dropping, how would you interpret it? SPCX has been like this recently. The U.S. Space Force has just placed a $1.6 billion order, securing 18 Falcon 9 launches in one go, with the cooperation lasting until 2027. Logically, contracts of this level should be enough to stimulate market sentiment. But reality is quite the opposite. After the announcement, SPCX not only failed to strengthen, but continued to come under pressure, with only a symbolic rebound after hours. This shows that the focus of capital has long shifted from this $1.6 billion. Over the past year, SpaceX has secured numerous contracts from the U.S. government and the Pentagon, and has virtually no real competitors in the commercial space sector. Continuously receiving military orders has itself become the default market expectation. When everyone knows a company will keep taking orders, the orders themselves lose their surprise. Capital began to recalculate another thing—valuation. AgainThe official SurfAI announcement unblocks the day of TGE
Usually, when the project team starts the second season, there's a settlement for the first season. The first season lasted over a year, and many of the brothers spent a year. Without explanations, how could the later Warriors dare to take the stage?
Also, most AI nowadays mostly renew monthly fees, rarely using annual cards. Even top-tier models are the same. You never know when your IQ will drop and you'll fall behind. SurfAI is no exception$MU
$SNDK
$SKHYNIX
US stocks rebound sharply, Nasdaq up over 3%! During the session, South Korea's #KOSPI stock market rebounded sharply, rising over 17%! Japanese stock market rebounds sharply, rising over 5%
A key driver should be: last night's US core inflation rate was down, including employment conditions that were still good, which should reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate hike.
Meanwhile, global tech stocks experienced a slump and decline in July, but US stocks rebounded from oversold prices last night, sweeping away the gloom and leading to a broad rally. At today's opening, Asia surged across the board.
OK, so our question now is: is it a rebound or a reversal? My trading is still quite cautious, and for now, I treat it as a rebound. Microsoft is bucking the trend by increasing capital expenditure this time, and the market is actually buying into it. The key is not that it spends less, but that it convinces people "spending out also brings returns." Azure's strong growth, cloud revenue breaking through critical thresholds, and Copilot's expanding paid user base are what set Microsoft apart from other companies burning money on AI. Meta talks about AI, and the market asks when it will break even; Microsoft talks about AI, and the market sees cloud customers already paying the bills. This is the biggest divergence in the AI earnings season. While some companies are investing in data centers, buying GPUs, and powering projects like building toll highways, others are laying roads without knowing the traffic volume yet. I think Microsoft's most ruthless move now is that it doesn't bet on a single model narrative. It sells cloud, software, enterprise processes, and also AI entry points. The market isn't afraid of capital expenditure; the market fears capital expenditure without a path to returns. #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% Apple's earnings exceeded expectations, but its stock price plunged, which is even more worth watching than the results themselves
Because the market is not asking whether Apple is making money now
It makes sense to ask whether Apple can continue to be expensive
The iPhone and Mac sold well, and there were highlights in China, with both revenue and profit above the threshold. But investors see another side of this: supply constraints, rising memory costs, slow AI pace, and less impressive guidance for next quarter. Apple's greatest strength before was making people believe it could take it slow, because its ecosystem was strong enough and its cash flow was solid
But now, the AI arms race has put all tech giants on the stage
Microsoft can prove its AI investment with cloud revenue, Meta is being chased by the market for returns, and Apple is no exception. It doesn't need to burn money like Nvidia does, but it must prove that AI can eventually turn into device replacement and service revenue
A good company does not equal a good stock price
Especially when the good has already been bought out in advance
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours US Q2 GDP was only 1.5%, which is easily misinterpreted as "the economy is finally failing."
But this data is actually quite uncertain
With surface growth falling short of expectations, the market's first reaction is that hopes for rate cuts are rising, so risk assets like BTC and ETH will naturally feel a bit more comfortable. But breaking it down, consumption is still supporting, AI-related commercial investment is still surging, and the real drags down are imports and inventory-related technology items. What's more troublesome is that although PCE has fallen, core inflation has not yet returned to the Fed's comfortable level
This puts the market in an awkward position
The economy isn't weak enough to have to be injected immediately, and inflation isn't so low that you can confidently turn dovish. The crypto market's favorite scenario is cooling growth, declining inflation, and liquidity opening up. Right now, only the first line is alike; the last two lines haven't fully matched yet
So this is not just pure positive news
This is the market's gamble that the Fed will soften first
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% Most traders are probably looking at this $BTC consolidation and expecting a repeat of July 27. I don’t think it’s that simple. The backdrop is completely different. July 27: • Whale positioning barely improved • CVD fell, showing aggressive selling • OI stayed flat, meaning little fresh leverage entered Now: • Whale positioning is surging • CVD is rising, showing aggressive buying • OI is climbing fast, confirming fresh positions are entering Similar price action. Very different data. #Bitcoin一年前账面浮盈超10亿美元，如今直接变成82.2亿美元净亏损，MicroStrategy这份Q2财报把比特币信仰者的脸都打肿了。更扎眼的是，公司自己搞出一个$BTC Hurdle ARR指标，把门槛设在10.8%，结果实际比特币收益率只有4.5%，连成本线一半都不到。CFO Andrew Kang说这是它的有效成本，说白了，这家公司买$BTC 的收益连自己定的及格线都没跑赢。 市场反应倒是不慌，$BTC 还在65,160美元附近挂着，日内涨了2.3%，但MicroStrategy这种杠杆式囤币模式的脆弱性已经明晃晃摆在台面上。当初用可转债和股权融资疯狂加仓，赌的是比特币单边上涨，现在价格波动一剧烈，账面浮亏就直接击穿利润墙。 对$MSTR 持有者来说，这个信号相当致命。4.5%的比特币收益率意味着它的囤币效率在下降，而10.8%的hurdle rate又不可能靠放水短期追上，除非$BTC 再来一波翻倍行情，否则下季度财报的数字只会更难堪。比特币本身的基本面没崩，但MicroStrategy这支股票已经从比特币杠杆多头变成了高风险债务博弈，两者的走势正在脱钩。手里有$MSTR 的人，该重Complete analysis of Bitcoin performance from August to December (combining Federal Reserve meetings, PCE inflation, four-year halving cycles, ETF funding)
Front-end core foundational framework
1. Cycle positioning
Current bull market peak: October 2025 (126272 USD)
Historical pattern: After peaking, bear market bottoming cycle lasts 12~14 months. → Benchmark bottom window: October–December 2026
Current status: Mid-stage of the bear market. All rebounds are characterized as bear market recovery and rebounds; trend reversals require multiple signal resonances.
2. Changes in core pricing logic
After the launch of spot ETFs in 2024, the weight of US dollar liquidity (Fed policy) > halving cycle narrative;
Bitcoin is a high-beta non-interest-bearing asset, with real interest rates under pressure rising and improved rate cut expectations boosting valuations.
3. Remaining Key Macro Time (Beijing Time)
✅September 17, 02:00 FOMC (quarterly meeting, dot plot update, top priority)
✅October 29, 02:00 FOMC (regular meeting, no dot plot)
✅December 10, 03:00 FOMC (Year-End Close, Latest Interest Rate Expectations)
Core PCE Price Index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge) is released at the end of each month.
1. Phased Trend Simulation (August–December)
Phase One: August ~ Mid-September (Bottoming and Expected Volatility)
Macroscopic variables
1. Core PCE releases in August and September determine the Fed's tone for September;
2. The current market is highly divided: on one side, betting on a rate cut in Q4; on the other, worried about a rebound in inflation and the Fed maintaining high rates for longer; Washe has repeatedly emphasized that a single month of inflation decline is not enough to change policy.
Market Situation
1. Baseline Scenario (Most Probable)
PCE declined moderately and slowly, without a significant rebound; the Fed kept rates unchanged and spoke hawkishly.
Bitcoin Trend: Wide oscillation within a range, repeated tests of support, and a slow downward consolidation center.
Market characteristics: Positive data rebounds in the short term, but the rebound is not sustainable; After a rebound, it is likely to pull back.
2. Pessimistic scenario
Core PCE rebounded and rose again, with the market trading "long-term high interest rates" again, and risk aversion intensifying.
Bitcoin will test deep support, testing the previously estimated 70% retracement level ≈ $37,881.
3. Optimistic scenario
PCE has been falling for two consecutive months, prompting the market to adjust the probability of a December rate cut, with funds prematurely betting on easing expectations.
A mid-level rebound has emerged, but it is only a bearish rally, making it difficult to break through the previously important resistance level.
Cycle perspective: August and September remain in the bottom-seeking phase, making it difficult to form a final bear market bottom. Historical bottoms often appear after rate cut expectations have fully fermented.
Phase Two: Mid-September ~ Early November (the most important turning point window)
Key event: September FOMC dot plot
Two core results:
1) The dot plot maintains high interest rate expectations, with no rate cuts this year→ Risk assets are under pressure, and Bitcoin continues to bottom out;
2) The dot plot lowers interest rate expectations, clearly releasing the possibility of a rate cut in December.
👉 Once expectations for a December rate cut heat up, the market will start trading early with easing expectations (historical pattern: expectations prevail).
Key window for the cycle: October–December (the ultimate bottom range of the bear market we previously projected)
Historical Patterns:
The process of rising rate cut expectations often marks the final bottoming phase of a bear market.
The bottom usually forms [before the rate cuts take effect], not after the cut.
⚠️ Key caution: "Buy expectations, sell facts":
If the market continues to bet on a rate cut in December, BTC will rebound along with US stocks; When the rate cut officially takes effect in December, it is very likely that good news will be realized and sold off.
Phase Three: November ~ End of December (Expectations fulfilled, direction selection)
1. If the Federal Reserve officially implements rate cuts in December,
Path: November continued early speculation and expectations, with prices fluctuating upward; After the December rate cut, funds took profits and experienced a round of correction.
Qualitative statement: A major bear market rebound after bottoming does not mean the start of a new bull market. According to the cycle framework, a comprehensive bull market will have to wait until 2027 for the continuous bottoming out to end.
2. If inflation rebounds, interest rates will remain unchanged in December
Market easing expectations have completely dashed, and Bitcoin will come under pressure again, pushing the bear market bottom to early 2027.
2. Three Core Observation and Verification Indicators (Your Daily Key Tracking)
1. PCE Inflation Data (Fed Policy Barometer)
- Core PCE continues to decline → rising expectations for rate cuts, which is positive for BTC;
- Core PCE continues to rebound → high interest rates persist, suppressing the non-yielding asset BTC.
2. Bitcoin spot ETF capital flow (Institutional Honest Attitude, We Push Daily Updates)
✅ Continuous net inflows for 3~5 trading days: institutions are starting to position themselves, indicating a positive signal for bottoming;
❌ Long-term continuous net outflow: Institutions continue to reduce positions, and downside risks have not been eliminated.
Important: A single single-day inflow is only a short-term sentiment and does not have trend value.
3. U.S. stock market linkage (Nasdaq, semiconductor sector)
Current stage pattern:
BTC peaked early, and US stocks fluctuated at high levels; If the US stock market experiences a systemic correction, BTC will follow with a sharp drop;
Only a broad-based rally driven by expectations of loose liquidity will see both forces strengthen in harmony.
3. Three Complete Annual Scenario Summaries (August–December)
Scenario 1 | Baseline Scenario (60% Probability)
PCE is slowly declining, with rates remaining hawkish in September and the first preventive rate cut in December
Trend path:
August-September will be volatile and bottoming out → October–November will be a gamble with rate cut expectations rising and oscillating (mid-level bear market rebound); → After the December rate cut, a pullback will be realized.
Ultimate Bear Market Bottom: The October–November range has formed, corresponding to our cycle prediction window.
Scenario 2 | Pessimistic scenario (25% probability)
Inflation stickiness has exceeded expectations, PCE has rebounded, and the Federal Reserve will not cut rates throughout the year.
Trend path: Continuous downward oscillation, constantly testing lows, deeply testing the 70% retracement level; The bear market bottom has been postponed to the first quarter of 2027.
Scenario 3 | Optimistic scenario (15% probability)
Inflation fell rapidly, with clear signals of rate cuts released in September, and multiple rate cuts started throughout the year.
Trend path: Fluctuating rebound from August, continued strength in Q4; The bear market bottom moved up to August–September, significantly shortening the bottoming cycle.
Cognitive misconceptions that must be avoided
Misconception: As long as interest rates are cut, Bitcoin will immediately start a bull runKOSPI今天暴涨13%，三星涨20%、海力士涨24%——满屏都是“见底了”的声音。 但美股知名交易员Ariel Hernandez刚刚浇了一盆冷水：别把暴力反弹当成趋势反转，这类杠杆清洗之后的市场，前高可能需要数月甚至数年才能收复。 今天这个反弹，本质上是一轮极度超卖后的空头回补踩踏。空头被迫平仓、散户抄底涌入、加上监管维稳信号刺激——三股力量叠加，确实能把指数推上去。 但这和趋势反转是两回事。 真正的问题在于杠杆结构已经被破坏了。爆仓的人被清理出局，活下来的人也不敢再满仓加杠杆，融资余额从38.6万亿掉到33.2万亿，短时间内不会自动恢复。 Ariel Hernandez引用了今年白银市场杠杆平仓的案例：结构被破坏之后，卖方供应增加，新买家杠杆意愿降低，市场需要漫长的修复期——不是几天，不是几周，可能是几个月甚至几年。 所以今天KOSPI大涨13%，很漂亮。但对于真正想在这个市场里赚钱的人来说，现在不是庆祝的时候，而是观察的时候——观察杠杆修复的节奏，观察资金回流的意愿，观察韩国这轮去杠杆周期到底走完了没有。 暴涨之后的冷静，比追涨本身更重要。 $SNDK $SKHYNIX $SO$BTC
Price is steadily recovering from the lows,
The FOMC dump wasn't what I expected + price recovered from the dump pretty fast.
OI is oscillating from highs to lows and back to highs, meaning no side is positioned with conviction.
Perps is slowly grinding up and is strong alongside Spot which is even stronger in the current scenario.
Now seeing all this what to expect next,
For the bullish scenario, we would need Spot to cross back to positive with OI building alongside the pump.
Breaking above the 65k level with strength and this could send us to 67-68k.
Now for the bearish scenario, we will need price to reject from 65k again with CVDs slowing rolling over again,
And OI spiking on the dump, that would flush the longs and will send us lower to 62-63k.
Personally, I am out of the shorts in small losses here and won't be taking any LTF trade,
Because if you guys saw my last post, I mentioned about the mFVG that we have on the upside, which so far has been filled every single time in this bear market,
And I don't wanna go against the odds here, I never do.
+ The FOMC dump wasn't what I was expecting and seeing price recovery strength with CVDs backing it (main stuff) and the timing window (End of the month).
It's very possible we see Monthly Open manipulation tapping into the mFVG then start the dump towards 60-62k.
So I am fine with taking a small lose and now I am only focusing on the HTF POIs for now.$BTC #USQ2GDP1.5% 回望两轮牛市高点，一个耐人寻味的现象摆在眼前：2024年3月以太坊触及4100美元，比特币73000美元；到2024年12月牛市新高阶段，比特币冲高至11万美元，以太坊却依旧卡在4100美元迟迟无法突破。两轮行情ETH顶部始终锚定在同一价位，长期陷入瓶颈难以向上突破。
在加密市场当中，币种想要突破历史新高，往往需要满足三大核心条件：其一，具备可落地验证、经得起市场检验的全新叙事逻辑；其二，前期充分深度洗盘，筹码经过充分换手；其三，项目层面无大额代币解锁带来的抛售压力。对照来看，2024年以太坊只满足后两项，最致命的短板便是长期缺少能够持续支撑价格上行的全新叙事。
回溯上半年三月行情，以太坊主打Layer2扩容叙事，市场一度笃定L2生态蓬勃发展会推动ETH持续通缩。但现实并未契合预期，Solana凭借低廉手续费与出色性能分流大量用户，L2并未实现预想的生态繁荣，旧叙事宣告失效。年末新一轮牛市到来之际，以太坊直接陷入叙事真空状态。即便推出ETH‑ETF产品，机构资金参与意愿依旧低迷；Dencun升级本应巩固通缩逻辑，结果ETH日销毁量从数千枚暴跌至每日仅50‑70枚，ETH由通缩转为温和通胀。以太坊主网L1季度收入大幅缩水，九成以上交易手续费被各Layer2捕获，过往的通缩逻辑彻底崩塌，却迟迟没有新的方向承接市场预期。
反观同期的Solana走出独立牛市行情，完美契合三大上涨条件：前期经历深度回撤，最低跌至8.13美元，跌幅超97%筹码洗盘彻底；大额解锁推迟至2025年，短期无抛压隐患；独占meme币赛道红利，拥有强有力的全新叙事加持，价格从低位一路冲高至290美元创下历史新高。由此可见，叙事驱动是加密牛市运行的底层核心逻辑，没有持续有效的故事支撑，币种便难以获得增量资金入场。
放眼当下熊市环境，RWA成为唯一逆势持续增长的赛道叙事，黑石、富兰克林、Circle等传统金融巨头持续入局，带来实打实的增量资金流入。ETH、头部DeFi项目以及BNB具备承接RWA叙事的先天优势：标的前期普遍回撤约七成，筹码经过充分清洗；UNI、AAVE等老牌DeFi龙头代币早已完成全部解锁，无大额抛压；叠加机构入局RWA的全新叙事加持，三项上涨条件基本齐备，或将成为下一阶段市场重点关注的方向。
加密市场永远是旧叙事退场，新叙事接力。以太坊此前因叙事断层陷入停滞，而RWA或许是打破僵局、走出长期瓶颈的关键突破口$BTC $ETH 这个币友问的问题比较典型，课上就抽时间全面分析一下sol。 关于macd快慢线归零轴时怎样判断上涨还是下跌趋势，这个昨天发闪迪的贴提到过：同样处于周线死叉的趋势中，且日线都是开口往下，为何闪迪从1988跌到1316后还能反弹到1694？这一段反弹就是2日线macd归零出止跌信号+小时级别走强促成，在前天跌到1000附近时我前瞻这里同样会出一个反弹波段、那么就可以预判是3日线macd归零出止跌信号+小时级别走强促成。现在我们可以看到，闪迪在回踩到周线的支撑1000时，确实是3日线归零时出了止跌信号。所以在走周线级别调整周期中，当回踩到周线的支撑时，我们需要关注1、2、3、5日线macd归零时的变化，指标要连在一起看，综合判断下一步的可能性。Through the crosshair of the 4x scope, I saw the financial report split in half at the target target. The timing was off—$1.22 billion in revenue, nearly one notch below expectations, and after-hours prices fell 5% like prey struck in the chest. Wind direction: west-southwest, high humidity, market sentiment is smog, not suitable for long-distance fire.
But I didn't shift my crosshair. Stripping away those numbers that would be swept away by the wind: GAAP net loss of $360 million, that's scar tissue but not fatal. The real ballistics lie elsewhere—adjusted EBITDA of $207.8 million, marking fourteen consecutive seasons with a bullseye. When the entire war zone shrinks by 25% and market value shrinks by 11%, this gun's market share actually reached an unprecedented 10.3%. This isn't called fading, it's called changing the magazine.
I pulled the bolt and checked the rifling. Trading revenue was $599 million, which is a cooled barrel compared to Q1. But note the composition of the ammunition: Bitcoin accounted for only 12% of revenue, which was over half of the total revenue that year, and now it's just a cartridge in armor-piercing rounds. Companies are turning their focus to stablecoins and derivatives—this isn't a retreat, it's a recalibration of its trajectory. The exposed weakness is the Q3 guidance of $5–580 million, below Wall Street's expectations for ballistic computers. They wanted to see from different angles, but I only saw a mountain gun turning.
What made my pupils contract the most wasn't the losses, but the 819 BTC holdings. Only veteran snipers dare to press bullets when behind. Others saw the post-5% smoke mark retreating, while he redrew the shooting elements in the low area. This isn't just looking at meat on the chopping board through binoculars—it's tactical preparation.
As for the post-market drop of 5%—the trend is for beginners. I measured wind deviation through the scope, the drone hovered overhead, and the trajectory had been corrected. From $40,000 to $80,000, from Satoshi Nakamoto's genesis block to ETH's POS shift, how many times has he changed barrels on this front? Every time the enemy thought he should retreat, he simply changed to a hidden position.
I don't care about that quarter's earnings. What I'm concerned about is: when most people use radar to scan the sea, why did he drop anchor here? The record market share hit wasn't luck, but after six years of long-short and bull-short battles, he trusted that calculated advance amount.
Firing in a losing position requires courage, and even more so you need to recalculate the compensation amount based on the wind direction. Where the money is doesn't matter; what matters most is the direction of the wind. He placed his gun behind the stablecoins and derivatives bunkers, waiting for the next wind.
Trajectory adjustment complete. Wait for the trigger signal.
#影响周期 · Quarterly #加密数据 · Exchange Earnings #Coinbase · $1.22 Billion · -18.5% · Post-hours -5%$TAO当前处于一个罕见的状态：协议层质量从2023年到2026年发生了根本性改变，挖矿从漏洞横行、日赚5000美元的套利游戏演变为竞争充分、产品真正产生收入的生态——但价格从350美元跌至185美元，跌幅接近47%。基本面改善与价格持续下行的背离，是当前最值得推演的矛盾点。
这种背离的宏观背景不能忽略。美联储高利率环境持续压制风险资产估值，美元指数维持强势，黄金在避险需求下相对抗跌，而AI概念股在纳斯达克经历了一轮剧烈去杠杆后正处于修复窗口期。加密市场中的AI叙事标的，包括$TAO，与美股AI板块的相关性在过去两年显著上升——纳斯达克AI板块的波动往往在48小时内传导至TAO的价格区间。当前利率预期未明确转向之前，这条传导链对TAO构成持续的估值天花板。
驱动因素排序上，宏观流动性压力排第一，子网代币持续解锁带来的供给稀释排第二，矿工叙事改善排第三。前两项是价格的向下锚，第三项是潜在的重新定价触发器，但顺序不能颠倒。
上行剧本的触发条件：美联储释放明确降息信号，纳斯达克AI板块成交量放大并突破近期高点，同期TAO链上子网收入数据出现可验证的环比增长。这三个变量同时满足时，基本面改善才有可能被市场重新定价，185美元的位置在这个剧本里具备较强的支撑逻辑。观察变量是美股AI板块ETF的资金流向以及TAO子网的实际付费用户数。失效信号是纳斯达克再度回调超过5%同期TAO跟跌，说明宏观压力尚未出清。
下行剧本的触发条件：美元进一步走强叠加子网代币大额解锁窗口，市场流动性向比特币和黄金集中，TAO因流动性偏薄而被优先减仓。这个剧本里，协议质量的改善对短期价格几乎没有支撑作用，185美元会成为阻力而非支撑。需要观察的变量是TAO现货交易深度和大额持仓地址的变动。失效信号是TAO在宏观下行期间相对比特币出现明显超额收益，说明资金在主动配置AI叙事。
矿工叙事的转变提供了一个非价格维度的健康度信号：当挖矿无法作弊、利润空间极薄时，留在网络里的参与者是真实需求驱动的。这改变了对协议长期存活概率的判断，但不改变短期价格受宏观流动性主导的现实。
未来7天最重要的观察变量：美联储7月会议纪要措辞是否出现鸽派转变、纳斯达克AI板块能否维持修复斜率、TAO链上子网收入是否出现可量化的增量。三者中任意一项发生方向性变化，都需要重新评估当前的基本面-价格错位是否进入修复阶段。
#HYPE遭大额解押减持，一周回落10% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌 #比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降：独立还是假象The impact of this sharp rebound in Asia-Pacific stock markets on the crypto market
1. Core underlying logic
The core reason for the recent rally in Korean and Japanese stock markets is that the AI technology sector's panic selling has temporarily bottomed out, market risk appetite is warming, and funds are no longer blindly avoiding high-risk assets. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk growth assets and tend to move in sync with global stock market sentiment.
1. Market sentiment turns optimistic
A few days ago, global tech stocks suffered consecutive sharp declines, triggering a collective sell-off of risk assets across the entire market, with Bitcoin and Ethereum under simultaneous pressure. Now, the Asia-Pacific tech stock market is recovering strongly, which represents a short-term retreat in panic and is favorable for mainstream cryptocurrencies to stabilize after decline.
2. AI industry chain linkage
The main drivers of gains are Samsung and SK Hynix memory chip companies, with expectations for a recovery in AI computing power and the chip industry chain. A large number of crypto projects tied to AI concepts and hash power sector tokens will see positive sentiment, with the sector showing a slight recovery.
2. Divergence in market strength
1. Bitcoin, Ethereum: Benefiting from the overall market risk appetite recovery, the downside has narrowed, making it easier to maintain a volatile and slightly corrective trend.
2. AI, computing power, and storage concept altcoins: Most closely related to chip technology markets, with short-term rebounds expected to outperform large-cap coins.
3. Overall, the market is sentimentally positive, not substantive fundamentals. The market will not experience a one-sided surge, but will continue to focus on oscillating recovery. $BTC $ETH "Can you stop pulling?" I surrender! ”
I didn't say this sentence; it was shouted by my brother who was short at $1295 when I opened my account this morning. Who would have thought that $SNDK could go from $1,000 straight to nearly $1,400 like a skyrocket?
I originally planned to lick it for $1,027 and then run, but I did and really ran—and then I got left behind. Watching 300 points of profit slip through your fingers feels even worse than missing out. Let's not talk about it and first take a look at what's really happening on the market.
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Chart: Three Torches Storage Sector is on fire
Last night, the US storage sector was in an uproar—SanDisk (SNDK) closed up about 26%, Micron over 18%, Western Digital over 15%, SK Hynix over 17%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged as much as 9%. The SNDKUSDT perpetual contract even surged from around $1,000 all the way up to $1,386.
The first fire: Inflation has died down, and expectations for rate hikes have faded. The Fed's most valued June PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first monthly decline since 2020; Core PCE fell year-on-year to 2.5%, the lowest since February 2021. It's basically a clear message to everyone: a rate hike in September is basically impossible. The biggest macro negative factor hanging over tech stocks has been temporarily resolved.
The second fire: Microsoft proved with its performance that "AI spending money is not wasted." Microsoft's capital expenditure in the fourth quarter was $41 billion, a 70% year-on-year increase, and Azure cloud revenue surpassed the $100 billion mark for the first time. It rose 8.5% in after-hours trading, and surged 15.5% at the close, marking the largest single-day gain since 2008. To put it plainly: the money spent on AI is not wasted.
The third fire: Although Meta's guidance was weak and its stock price plunged 8%, the market instead interpreted it as "the AI story is beginning to diverge"—whoever can turn investment into profit will be the real dragon.
With three fires coming together, it's hard not to rise.
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Trading direction and trend strategies
In the short term, SNDK has climbed from 1000 to 1386, with a two-day 30%+ fluctuation. The EMA5 (1380) has become short-term support. But in the 24 hours, the high was 1436 and the low was 999. This volatility shows one thing: chasing on highs is risky, but short selling is even riskier.
Strategically, if you are an aggressive player and do not break below the EMA5 (around 1380) pullback, consider a light position and try going long; If you are a conservative player, wait for a pullback near EMA20 (1348) before looking for support. Don't blindly short during a surge — the brother who shorted at 1295 is a cautionary tale.
In the medium term, the core logic of the storage sector remains unchanged: AI's rigid demand for memory chips remains. However, AllianceBernstein cautions that technology stocks will see significant volatility in the second half of the year, with capital expenditure growth slowing from 78% this year to 41% next year. So, take swing trading, don't set a pattern.
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Trading Insights: Don't be greedy, don't regret, don't go against the market
Finally, let me say something heartfelt.
First, taking profits is always the right choice—don't regret it. Go long on 1027, then make a profit and then exit. Although you missed 300 points, you didn't lose money. The least valuable thing in the market is "If only I hadn't run back then"—this kind of thinking only worsens your mood and serves no purpose.
Second, don't go against the trend. Brothers short at 1295, how are you? When the trend arrives, bears are like picking up coins in front of a roller—not that you can't pick them, but the risk-reward ratio is too poor.
Third, leverage is a double-edged sword. 50x leverage looks beautiful, but when volatility is 30%, it's either heaven or hell. Not everyone can enter the market to buy when others are liquidated like Citadel does.
Final sentence: The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks are people who live and wait for chances. If you miss this round, that's okay—try again next time. But if you get liquidated, then there's really no next wave.
Let's encourage each other.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours
#微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading
#财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? Latest news: Bipartisan lawmakers have proposed a compromise on ethical clauses, submitted to the White House for negotiation, clearing key obstacles to the CLARITY Act and slightly warming expectations for its implementation. Ethical controversies are the core bottleneck in the Senate shelving the bill. Now that a compromise has emerged, it means there is room for bipartisan consensus.
2. Fundamental significance: Once the law is implemented, the legal identity of BTC and ETH will be clarified, separating regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC, greatly eliminating long-term regulatory uncertainty in the industry and benefiting institutional capital inflow.
3. Market Perspective Assessment
✅ Short term: This is a mild catalyst with positive sentiment, but the draft has not been made public and the White House has not responded. There is still a long process before the Senate vote and formal legislation, so avoid aggressively betting on a one-sided rally.
✅ Mid-term: If there are ongoing reports of smooth negotiations, it will continue to provide bottom support for Bitcoin and Ethereum; If negotiations break down, expectations will cool and the risk of pressure will rise.
4. Trading strategy
Do not chase the high-spec gambling news and market trends. Short-term traders should be seen as catalysts for sentiment; Focus on continuously tracking subsequent White House statements and the Senate voting schedule.
Once negotiations become clear, it will benefit crypto-related stocks like BTC, ETH, and Coinbase in the medium to long term.Magic connoisseurs, you are staring at a perfect illusion sample. Strategy's book performance this quarter played an $8.2 billion "disappearing spell"—but don't rush to find a trap, because while you're looking for an empty wallet, the market makers are telling you to keep an eye on the empty chair.
The hook of the prologue hangs here: when the dealer hides **843,775 white doves** in the hat, losing 8.32 billion is just a soft cloth used to shine the coin before the magic begins. What you see with your eyes is "unrealized losses," but to me, this is the most textbook example of "misguided guidance" on stage—slight revenue growth, sky-high losses, shrinking stock buybacks. Is this a financial report? This is clearly a perfect gift of "fake cards in the left hand, stolen cards in the right."
Look closely at the average price **$75,476**—that's the code for ignition. At the end of the quarter, my holdings slightly dropped to 843K, but during the period, the peak soar to 846K in one go. The real card game isn't just about losing money on paper, but about controlling your focus. What they lose is not real money, but the trump card forced by accounting standards to reveal behind their back—no refunds, no selling, and continued accumulation. This is the core secret of the entire trick.
Don't forget, their convertible bonds shrank by 18%, and their balance sheets were revamped. What does this indicate? The dealer is recalling the old "hallucination device" backstage and replacing it with new props. These people don't lose money; they just trade money for bricks, letting the market carry the canvas for them. What about the investors? Still staring at that string of numbers, imagining that someone else was being cut.
The final trick is a side handflip—the $XSOX synergy depth is just the supporting silhouettes on both sides of the main stage. You wait for the floor of the US stock market to collapse, but the market makers have already replaced the tripropes with ladders.
【UI_TAG: StrategyPlaybook】
#影响周期 · Quarterly #加密数据 · Institutional Holdings · Earnings #Strategy · 843,775 BTC · $8.2 billion loss#苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours
Amazon and Apple's financial reports: two different growth logics
Amazon: Growth comes from cloud computing, AI, and advertising
Amazon's quarterly revenue was $200.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year. Among them, AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters; Advertising revenue also grew 26% to $19.8 billion.
AWS is Amazon's cloud computing business, allowing enterprises to rent servers, data storage, databases, and AI computing power through it.
AWS's accelerated growth is mainly because enterprises need more computing power to build AI applications, while Amazon still faces a shortage of supply. AWS contract reserves have reached $496 billion, indicating a certain degree of future revenue visibility; E-commerce benefited from faster delivery speeds and Prime Day, while advertising growth came from shopping platforms and Prime Video traffic monetization.
Impact on future investments
Amazon is moving further from being an "e-commerce company" to cloud computing, AI infrastructure, and advertising platforms.
The faster AWS grows, the more reasonable Amazon's investment in AI data centers will become, which will continue to benefit the GPU, storage, network chips, and data center supply chains.
But the risks are clear: Amazon has raised its annual capital expenditure to $220 billion, and free cash flow over the past 12 months has dropped to negative $7.6 billion. Whether the stock price can continue to rise in the future depends on whether these investments can be consistently converted into AWS revenue and profits.
Apple: Growth comes from product cycles and ecological stickiness
Apple's quarterly revenue was $109.4 billion, up 16% year-over-year, with EPS of $2.02, up 29% year-over-year. The iPhone, Mac, and services businesses all achieved double-digit growth, with the number of active devices reaching record highs.
Of this, iPhone revenue was about $54.25 billion, up 21.7% year-on-year; Mac revenue was approximately $10.35 billion, up 28.7% year-over-year. Apple's growth mainly comes from demand for new products, user phone upgrades, and ecosystem consumption driven by its large existing user base.
However, Apple's services business grew by about 12.1%, significantly lagging behind hardware; At the same time, gross margin and EPS for the quarter were also supported by tariff refunds, with gross margin boosted by about 2 percentage points and EPS up by about $0.11.
Impact on future investments
Apple is still a company centered on hardware, brand, and ecosystem, and its growth logic differs from Amazon's.
Two key points to watch in the future are: whether new AI and Siri features can stimulate a new round of device upgrades, and whether service businesses can accelerate again. Chip supply constraints and rising component costs may suppress subsequent sales and profit margins.
Summary
Amazon's growth relies more on AI computing power and cloud computing, resulting in faster growth, but capital expenditure and cash flow pressures are also greater.
Apple's growth comes from its replacement cycle and ecosystem stickiness, making its operations more stable, but whether AI can bring new valuation increases remains to be seen. $AMZN $AAPL @你的爱播Misa @OKX Chinese Yesterday, I said the people calling for $40K $BTC are dreaming.
This is one of the reasons why.
The people expecting another historic capitulation are assuming there is still an enormous amount of supply waiting to panic sell.
Long-Term Holder Supply suggests otherwise.
It has now surpassed 16.65M BTC, representing roughly 83% of the circulating supply, which is an all-time high for the metric.
Even after periods of distribution, total Long-Term Holder Supply has recovered to record highs.
In short, a record amount of Bitcoin is sitting with holders who have shown little intention of selling, despite months of weakness.
For Bitcoin to sustain a move toward the extreme bear market targets people are expecting, a significant portion of that supply would need to return to the m$BTC #USQ2GDP1.5% Tonight's US stock rebound is not 100% safe, so don't be blindly optimistic and overly FOMO—the market has not fully escaped the crisis! Based on current AI industry financial reports, AI infrastructure demand is overly concentrated and heavily reliant on the financial reports of the four major cloud providers—Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and META—which means market risk is also overly concentrated. Next up after the US market closes will be the earnings reports from Amazon and Apple, meaning this week's risk level has only exceeded 50%. If there are issues with Apple and Amazon's earnings reports, it will still threaten confidence in the overall AI narrative in the US market. Apple earnings report focus: Apple Intelligence Latest Developments iPad and Demand in the Chinese Market Services Business Growth Management Latest Statements on AI Strategy Amazon Focus: AWS Cloud Business Growth Rate AI Capital Expenditure AI Impact on Profit Margins Management's Guidance on AI Investment Timing in the Coming Quarters Late-Night Earnings Report Amazon's Earnings Weighted Higher Than Apple's, Apple's Reports Verify AI Applications While Amazon's Reviews of AI Infrastructure Implementation, They Are More Focused on Current Investors and the Market Therefore, If Amazon AWS exceeds expectations, capital expenditure continues to rise, and management growth continues to emphasize strong AI demand, it will have positive effects for the US AI sector. Conversely, if capital expenditure slows and ASW growth falls short of expectations, it will dampen confidence in US stocks! #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading Real-time Market Overview (Intraday Today) BTC maintains a narrow range of oscillation, the overall market lacks direction, and existing funds are frantically rotating among small-cap coins. $ARCA has become the biggest dark horse in today's market. The maximum increase in 3 hours is 41%, with the price surging from $0.082 to a high of $0.115, then slightly retreating to $0.106 at the time of writing. The 24-hour trading volume has doubled directly, with a turnover rate as high as 132%. This coin had been consolidating at a low level with a continuous slight decline for several days, attracting almost no attention. Today, short-term speculative funds concentrated quickly to push it up, directly shooting it to the top of the short-term gain list. A large number of community users are discussing this surge.
1. Surface catalysts for this violent surge
1) Mainstream coins continue to oscillate sideways without a clear trend; funds in the market are unwilling to gamble on the large market and instead flock to low-circulation small-cap coins to speculate on short-term trends.
2) The AI narrative sector collectively warms up, with multiple tokens in the same track pulsing simultaneously, and sector sentiment driving a large amount of follow-up buying.
3) The previous continuous slight decline and washout at low levels caused many trapped holders to cut losses and exit, creating a vacuum in selling pressure on the market. It does not require massive funds to drive a significant price increase.
2. On-chain fundamental truth, do not blindly follow the hype and chase highs
Circulating supply is highly concentrated, with whales fully dominating the market.
On-chain holding data shows that the top 6 whale wallets control the vast majority of circulating supply. The bottom has completed a long period of accumulation, whales have sufficient base positions, and the cost of pushing up is very low. The coin price fluctuations entirely depend on the movements of whale funds.
No new substantial positive news, purely speculative fund-driven hype.
Reviewing the project's official social accounts, there are no new version upgrades, institutional financing, or major...The Korean stock market really stunned everyone today.
KOSPI surged as much as 14% intraday, marking the largest single-day intraday gain in history. SK Hynix jumped as much as 28%, and Samsung Electronics also rose as much as 26%.
Many people think it's too exaggerated, but I actually feel this looks more like an emotional recovery after the severe drop a few days ago.
A few days ago, the market was still worried about AI burning through cash too quickly and the increasing debt pressure on tech companies, so funds were frantically deleveraging and selling off in a stampede. Then overnight, several tech giants released earnings reports showing that capital expenditures not only didn't decrease but actually continued to invest in AI, causing market sentiment to reverse sharply.
In short, the market is still the same market; as long as the AI story can still be told, funds will continue to flow into the AI industry chain.
However, I think we shouldn't call the bull market back just because of a one-day surge. This level of rebound is more of a revenge rally after panic selling.
What really deserves attention is whether AI capital expenditures can continue and whether semiconductor companies' performance can keep up with valuations.
If these two points don't have problems, I believe the AI main theme is very likely not over yet, but future volatility may become increasingly large. Two financial reports appeared together, turning the market into a world of fire and ice! Microsoft Azure's annual revenue surpassed the 100 billion yuan mark, with the AI cloud business thriving and a sharp after-hours surge; Meanwhile, Meta has been pouring money into hash rate, but its revenue guidance fell short of expectations, causing the market to hit hard water.
Both giants bet on AI, but the outcomes are worlds apart. To put it bluntly, the market no longer simply believes in "empty promises"; whether you can actually make money is the real benchmark. Microsoft has put its AI monetization path on the front lines through cloud services, while Meta continues to invest and wait for realization.
Similarly, going all in on AI—how should short-term performance be balanced against long-term prospects? Who do you think is more promising? #财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? "If ETH really is AI's trust layer, then what I'm buying now isn't coins, but hydropower, coal options," $ETH
Today, I saw Tom Lee again set a long-term ETH target of $250,000. The logic is: in the future, AI agents will pay each other, confirm rights, and sign contracts. They won't trust banks, but will trust a neutral public chain, and that chain is most likely Ethereum.
I thought about something, but didn't fully believe it.
The other half of the letter: ETFs continue to accumulate shares, institutions like Bitmine are putting real money into positions, Robinhood Chain's gas is eventually being sold back to the mainnet, and Vitalik has written anti-quantum+ privacy into its roadmap—this doesn't feel like pure empty narrative.
The skeptical side: L2s have now taken away activity, mainnet REAL economic value has dropped significantly year-on-year, and no one can say for sure whether ETH can catch this "AI settlement tax."
So I don't shout "ETH forever," nor do I shout "reset to zero."
I treat ETH as a hydropower, coal subscription voucher for the future machine economy:
If it's cheap, save some money; if it surges, move some to stablecoins,
When the day comes when AI agents run fully on-chain, they will either be infrastructure or a backup for infrastructure—
But a spare tire is still better than being empty-handed.
In this world, the ones who survive in the end aren't the loudest shouts, but those who hold onto their positions the longest. $ETH $BTC
I believe BTC is currently in the process of forming a HTF range.
Price has now been trading between $60K and $67K for the past two months without showing a clear trend.
During the final stage of a bear market, which I believe we're very likely in, BTC often forms a range where we see repeated liquidity sweeps on both sides before price eventually breaks out.
Considering the typical duration of a bear market we should still have roughly two months ahead of us before the next major uptrend begins.
Looking at the previous two bear markets, you'll also notice that BTC spent around 140 days trading inside a range before we saw the final flush to the downside and the market eventually formed its final bottom.
While I don't think there's much downside left, I do still see a decent chance for one final sweep of the lows.$BTC #AppleQ3BeatButGuidance