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At 22:00 Beijing time on July 27, Ondo officially launched the Ondo Network. Let me put my conclusion first: this is not another positive repetition of "another L1" advantage, but a very substantial shift in technical route; For ONDO, product progress is real, but token value capture has yet to be compensated by this announcement. Understanding these two layers is more important than focusing solely on the "new network launch." Ondo Chain, announced in 2025, was originally envisioned as a PoS L1 for the institutional-level RWA market, with its own state, validators, and on-chain logic. Now, the official statement is very straightforward: after implementing Ondo Perps, it was found that what truly stuck the trading experience was not settlement, but execution; Therefore, there is no need to build chains using traditional methods. The new solution places high-frequency logic such as matching, margin, and clearing into a single high-performance TEE secure zone, executing secretly at speeds close to centralized exchanges; Multi-party provers first verify the runtime code, then store the key key using a threshold method; Asset transfers are settled on the public chain. In other words, it separates execution, validation, and settlement. The official statement even clearly states that Ondo Network "is currently not a blockchain," but is merely a continuation and more accurate expression of Ondo Chain's goals. I acknowledge this pragmatism, but I would not equate "verifiability" directly with "complete distrust." Currently, code is still running in a single TEE, and the system relies on hardware remote proofs, approval code governance processes, and the honesty and availability of multi-party provers. The announcement did not disclose the certifier Another day of market education The educational content is very simple The headline is quite noisy The big cake is very stable The rates are cold The mountain stronghold is very divided Record the finishing price BTC 65132, up about 0.9% in one day ETH around 1962, close to four points SOL 76.6, still just over two points Then guess what When I struck my phone, The biggest impulse was not to increase positions I want to turn off the notice So my judgment is Today, I'll leave you with just one sentence No chasing, no cutting, lower leverage, turn off the app and sleep Back to hot topics outside the market, a few interesting things happened today: #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 The exit queue reset eased the expectation of selling pressure on the staking side. Stacking today's ETH clearly outperforming the broader market, short-term flexibility remains. I can continue to use ETH as a core satellite warehouse, but I won't switch to a high-leverage contract just because of one piece of data. #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 If the regulatory schedule is further delayed, thematic speculation lacks timeline stimulation and instead forces funds back into more liquid assets. From the end-of-day viewpoint, this is noise reduction, not an exit signal; just keep holding your core position. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables The storage market has brought the AI hardware war into the public eye, and the long-term narrative fuel remains, but price rhythm and secondary speculation are not the same thing. After reading the trending topics, remember to return to your position chart—don't impulsively place orders in the last five minutes of the day. $BTC $ETH #日终 #盘面 Want to buy but don't dare, don't buy but fear missing out Typical symptoms on the eve of the weekend The U in the account is glowing Fingers keep clicking back and forth between the plus and minus signs The big issues left this week are very clear The Federal Reserve decision is right in front of us Geopolitics is still in the gray area of "ceasefire but not over" The CLARITY schedule continues to be delayed And then guess what BTC has already digested part of the panic into a sideways upper range in advance Closed red near 65100 But I don't dare interpret this as a green light to confidently increase leverage For the weekend outlook, I only give myself three rules First Cut the leverage limit again before the decision Volatility can come But no liquidations Second You can watch the movers list Position limits locked Stocks with 18% moves in a day can only be observation samples Third Safety checks are more important than predictions Mnemonic phrases, authorizations, unfamiliar apps Perfect time to clean up during weekend boredom So my judgment is The weekend is not for proving how brave you are It's for reducing irreversible mistakes You can keep the direction, but actions must slow down By the way, I noticed some recent developments in a few directions: #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 The decision is the biggest macro trigger this week; the dot plot and press conference speeches often hurt valuations more than the rate hike or cut itself. My plan is to keep only low-leverage core positions before and after the decision, saving the firing rights until volatility clearly contracts. #美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌 The ceasefire reduces the probability of the worst-case scenario, but the gray area may repeat at any time, and oil prices and risk assets will still pulse. During the weekend news blackout, be extra cautious of gap spikes; never treat the ceasefire headline as a one-way pass. #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 The computing power guarantee can sustain AI's long-term heat but is easily exaggerated by the community over the weekend as a no-brainer reason to go long. A warm background is acceptable, but positions must still obey weekend risk control rules, not trending headlines. $BTC $ETH #WeekendOutlook #RiskControl $MOVE (1H) – Oversold Bounce Attempt Bias: LONG Entry Zone: 0.00890 – 0.00900 Stop Loss: 0.00875 TP1: 0.00911 TP2: 0.00925 TP3: 0.00945 Why this setup: Defended local support at 0.00882 after an aggressive sell-off. Consolidation above the low indicates seller exhaustion, setting up a potential mean-reversion move toward the 1H moving average resistances. NFA – Educational purposes only. #CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #OilDropsOnCeasefire Community sentiment was especially noisy tonight. Half people were posting the gainers leaderboard, half were cursing the drawdown list. It felt like we were living in two parallel markets. I scrolled through the discussion board, and there were only three keywords: how to price interest rate decisions, whether storage listings count as positive spillovers, and some even used the ceasefire as the trigger for a new bull market. And guess what? The ones truly dominating prices aren't the loudest comments, but boring data like funding rates and ETFs. Rates are still cold, but Bitcoin is still red. The pitfall of community sentiment is, first, clickbait pushes complex structures into a single phrase: "It's about to crash" or something "It's about to explode." If you place orders following emotion, you're basically handing your position over to the loudest person. Second, if PUMP can jump 18 points and SHIB can pull back by 8 points on the same day, it shows the narrative is fragmented and the unified slogan is no longer effective. Third, my own response is pretty basic. Trending topics are treated as intelligence, and orders are based on your own list. Whoever criticizes or praises should first keep a small notebook. So my judgment is: the more divided the community, the more suitable it is to reduce trading frequency and shift energy from "taking sides" back to positions and risk. People who speak less in noisy markets usually lose less. Coincidentally, there are a few hot topics worth discussing today: #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative? When earnings season arrives, communities love to label all coins with AI tags, making it very difficult to tell real from fake. I wait for the guiding text to materialize before deciding on a topic position, rather than being pushed into the most crowded trades by slogans in the warm-up post. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables. Storage launches have pushed hardware capacity wars into trending searches, making discussion forums easier Forget about bottom-fishing, it feels like the fundamentals have changed this time and there's no bottom anymore Previously, it was all hype about AI's huge growth and the perpetual shortage of storage But last weekend, Samsung and SK Hynix both announced expansion plans Changxin also went public; although it can't produce high-end HBM for now, it will eventually, and making DRAM now will squeeze Samsung and SK Hynix's mid-to-low-end market, freeing up capacity there In short, the previous expectation of storage shortage has suddenly turned into no shortage The market buys expectations and sells facts; stories are valuable, facts are not Wait until the storage shortage story comes back again, just like last year when Deepseek first took down Nvidia and then the new story "cheaper models → explosive usage → more shovel sales" started again, then enter again $MU $SKHYNIX $NVDA #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 All analysts say it will drop, but I went long instead I didn't really go all in long, just that inner drive in my heart. The scarier the headline, the less the market cooperates, I want to ask instead, who's putting on a show? Ladies, tonight's list of negative news can be very long: Interest rate cut expectations are blocked, ETF daily frequency is still shaky, whale contracts are getting crushed on both sides, debt numbers are scary. And then guess what? BTC still closed above 65100, and even gained nearly 1% in a day. ETH is even heading for a 4% gain, as if it never read those headlines. This is my contrarian view tonight, not shouting "bull to the moon," but that "headline mapping failure" itself is a signal. First, the market has already traded through the most panic-inducing geopolitical period. The news of the US military pausing strikes came out, oil prices crashed, crypto had already desensitized in advance. Second, there are still three buy signals in the sentiment indicators. Most are on the sidelines, not a frenzy top, nor a capitulation bottom, but a grinding neutral-to-bullish stance. Third, the real danger is trading based on headlines. Trading based on position structure is the right path. Low fees, spot market is green, it looks more like someone is quietly accumulating, not retail frenzy. So my judgment is, don't be scared out of your core positions by the "negative news collection" in the short term, and don't switch to chasing gains just because of one red day. The contrarian approach is to reduce overreaction, not to double down on gambling. Finally, let's talk about today's market highlights, a few directions worth watching: #US military pauses airstrikes on Iran, international oil prices open sharply lower A ceasefire can reduce the most extreme tail risks, but a drop in oil prices does not mean crypto will automatically surge. Tonight's "oil down, coins up" shows the pricing anchor has changed; continuing to force old correlations will only get you repeatedly slapped in the face. #Majority leader says CLARITY unlikely to pass before recess Bill delays have long been a regular on the negative news list, but the market doesn't necessarily punish with a discount. Once the regulatory timeline extends, I prefer to shift trading from "betting on passage" to "holding core assets that can survive the window." #Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision early Thursday The hawkish tail will suppress valuations, but if the dot plot doesn't worsen beyond expectations, BTC may treat volatility as an accumulation range after desensitization. Before the decision, I reduce high-leverage positions, not long-term convictions. $BTC $ETH #contrarian #macro When others are afraid, am I greedy? No, I am also afraid, But I still bought it The point of fear is very specific It's not the candlestick that is scary Institutions are making increasingly 'pragmatic' attitudes. Strategy surprisingly didn't add Bitcoin last week Dollar reserves have been raised to 3.75 billion On one hand, he talked about long-term faith On the other hand, stack up the bullet thickness first Then guess what Spot ETFs are still recording three consecutive weeks of inflows on paper But the volume shrank to just over 30 million that week The past two weeks have been worth hundreds of millions of dollars in progress In the same week, there were two days with outflows and cash-back exceeding 100 million yuan That's just how slow money is It doesn't disappear It shifts gears First Not increasing holdings does not mean being bearish It seems more like the financing environment and the pace of buybacks are telling the story Companies should first safeguard US dollars and ammunition before discussing sweeping the chain Second ETF went from "seven consecutive trading days of progress" to "still advancing on a weekly scale, very shaky on a daily scale" Institutional demand is recovering but remains cautious This structure is best suited for regular betting and not for all-in gambling Third The volume of OTC stablecoins remains high USDT plus USDC is just over 250 billion The bullet pool hasn't dried up What is lacking is the willingness to take risks So my judgment is Mining, treasury, and ETF narratives all lean 'slow' tonight Slowness is not empty It asks you to shift your expectations from weekly bursts back to monthly accumulation I continued in batches myself, not chasing the climax headline Next, let's take a quick look at the latest hot topics and chat casually: #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 The trading volume on traditional asset chains has grown so large that it cannot be used as a testing ground, indicating that institutional-level infrastructure is making money. This line is the same type of slow money as Bitcoin's treasury, suitable as an allocation theme, not as a source of daily 18 points of stimulation. #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 Computing power guarantees digital stimulation of risk appetite, but when it comes to crypto allocation, it usually benefits large-cap liquidity first, rather than a small coin frenzy. I will treat this as background risk appetite, and my position will still be mainly BTC spot. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables The storage IPO hype reminds us that the global chip capacity competition has entered a new phase, and the story of AI hardware capital spending is far from over. Mapping to crypto is the fuel for the long-term narrative, but the price has already overdrawn a round of expectations in advance. $BTC $ETH #ETF #机构跌了80%我都没割，今天直接涨回来了那是以前的我现在的我学会先看资金费率再决定要不要得意家人们今晚合约盘给我的感觉很分裂价格红着杠杆温度却不高然后你猜怎么着 BTC资金费率大概在0.01%附近蹭着走 ETH更冷，几乎贴零 SOL也是类似的温吞 OKX上BTC未平仓大约二十亿U量级人在，火不太旺这意味着什么第一红盘主要不是空头集体被碾后的逼空盛宴更像现货和中性仓在抬多头没有把费率打到狂热区第二费率冷+OI还在最怕的是来回扫两边你以为趋势来了加杠杆结果吃的是上下插针的手续费和清算第三 Hyperliquid那边头部地址合亏四千多万的新闻也在提醒聪明钱也会在这种「看起来不疼」的结构里双边挨打所以我的判断是费率贴零不是无脑做多许可证是「可以拿现货、少用高杠杆」的天气等费率重新抬头再谈趋势加速顺便唠几个热门话题，看看有没有你关注的： #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议决议夜前后合约最爱抽流动性，费率低不代表波动低。我习惯把高倍仓提前降下来，用小仓表达方向，避免被点阵图一句话扫掉本金。 #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过监管预期再延后，$WLFI Volatility has dropped significantly over the last few sessions, which usually precedes a sharp expansion. The price is tightly coiled, and the direction of the break will be telling for the rest of the week. EP 0.0530 - 0.0543 TP 0.0585 0.0610 0.0645 SL 0.0505 Range-bound trading is the play until we see a definitive move out of this zone. Don't chase the candles; wait for a four-hour close to confirm the strength of the breakout before adding size. Let's go $WLFI #CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch It's not me they're talking about, but the batch still jumping at the close. Watching the gainers list makes my palms sweat, but my rationality pushes me back into my chair. PUMP gains about eighteen percent in a day, BEAT around fifteen, LIT follows with nearly ten percent, and old faces like ENA and AAVE are also in the green. And guess what? BTC is only mildly up; the real fireworks are exploding in small and mid-cap coins. Nights like this, with "stable indices but crazy individual coins," make people think they can pick winners precisely. First, late-session moves are often liquidity gaps plus narrative handoffs, not fundamental turnarounds overnight. You might catch the first wave, but the second wave is usually left to the bag holders. Second, on the same day, coins like SHIB retraced eight percent, indicating rapid capital rotation within sectors, not a full bull market hitting the accelerator. Third, my own discipline is simple: I only allow small positions to test volatile coins; profits come from my main BTC and ETH holdings gradually rising, not from gambling on late-session surges. So my judgment is: tonight you can watch the excitement and note the names, but don't treat an eighteen percent daily gain as a new position template. Late-session fireworks are for observation, not heavy chasing. There are also a few other things worth noting today: #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 The exit queue clearing means staking-side selling pressure expectations have eased, combined with multiple large whales accumulating ETH since this morning, making short-term elasticity more active than BTC. I will treat ETH as a high-elasticity core asset, not swap it for the craziest altcoins. #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 The tokenized US stocks and RWA derivatives volume has already grown large It's becoming increasingly clear that $ETH is in a similar position to where it was in 2016 and 2020, particularly when looking at the $ETH /$BTC pair. The $ETH /$BTC ratio has historically been closely aligned with the broader macro risk cycle, and today's market structure resembles the same stage seen in those previous cycles. Despite this, many believe $ETH cycle is over because it underperformed between 2022 and 2026, relying on the traditional four-year cycle narrative. However, the macro cycle appears to have lengthened, shifting the timeline. If that's the case, 2026 may correspond more closely to where 2016 and 2020 stood—periods that ultimately preceded $ETH strongest upside moves. If history continues to rhyme, the current phase could represent a delayed cycle rather than a broken one. #CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch 上周转折点，上周末多放斡旋，本周开始释放降级乐观信号节奏把握的非常好，可惜了我的开仓节奏没把握好不过也不要过度乐观，海峡问题不解决，后续很有可能还是边打边谈，以打促谈的节奏一旦海峡问题解决，美伊的乐观窗口期可以维持3-4个月左右，这段时间就看原油价格可以跌下多少空间了， 3-4个月后，不管特朗普输赢，大概率都要拿伊朗再次开刀！#美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌 $AEON speaks some hard truths👇 First, the background: incubated by Binance YZi Labs, with the Binance halo, the team is all Chinese, including former Binance employees and ordinary Google engineers (non-core positions, led by Li Yiyang). But here come the problems: 1. What does the project do? AI payments + connecting global merchants, sounds grand. 2. What about real-world implementation? Currently almost zero. The whitepaper paints a very rosy picture, but reality is still far from landing. 3. Can this track succeed? Someone tried back in 2021—wallet + crypto bank card, fully integrated online payments and offline collections, connected with dozens of merchants. What happened? It died in less than two months. The reality of merchant payment tracks is not a technical issue, but one of implementation, compliance, and promotion. With past failures as a lesson, why should AEON succeed? The team background is ordinary, the track has been proven difficult to succeed, and the project is still at the concept stage. Summary: The Binance halo is real, but don’t be dazzled by it. High-risk investment, participate cautiously. At least wait to see real-world implementation data before considering.Amazon's most noteworthy aspect is not net profit, but its free cash flow of only $1.2 billion Amazon Q2 2026 will be announced on July 30. If you only look at net profit this time, you might get the wrong conclusion. Q1 official net profit was $30.255 billion, with diluted EPS of $2.78, but this includes $16.8 billion in pre-tax income from Anthropic investments. Investment revaluation is not part of AWS's retail, or advertising daily operating income, so analysis must be separate. What's even more worth tracking is cash flow. Amazon's Q1 announcement shows that operating cash flow grew 30% to $148.5 billion over the twelve months ending March 2026; However, free cash flow dropped from $25.9 billion a year ago to $1.2 billion. The main reason is a year-on-year increase of $59.3 billion in net property and equipment purchases, with the official clear that the increase mainly reflects AI investments. This set of numbers is not simply good or bad. Operating cash flow remains strong, indicating the core business has the ability to generate revenue; Free cash flow is close to zero, indicating that data centers, chips, and other infrastructure are absorbing large amounts of cash. Q2 To confirm whether the speed of investment, the pace of asset delivery, and AWS revenue are starting to correspond more clearly, rather than treating capital expenditures as waste or a benefit. Consolidated operating profit also needs to be split. In Q1, the company's operating profit was $23.852 billion, with AWS contributing $14.161 billion, North American retail $8.267 billion, and international business $1.424 billion. AWS remains the largest source of profit, but both retail regions have also turned a profit. If we look only at AWS in Q2, we will overlook fulfillment efficiency, Prime Day timing, and the impact of international business on consolidated profits. After the financial report, I first extract operating cash flow and property equipment expenses from the cash flow statement, then calculate free cash flow; Only then is it compared against net profit and investment gains and losses. This helps prevent non-operating entities like Anthropic from obscuring core business trends. Before the official results are released, the Q1 figures are only a baseline comparison; Q2 cash flow, capital expenditure, and investment gains and losses cannot be assumed in advance. Near zero free cash flow does not mean cash is depleted. Amazon's operating cash flow is large, with capital expenditures being the main difference; It depends on whether the asset formation can lead to improvements in AWS, advertising, and retail efficiency. Conversely, just because the expenditure belongs to AI, it cannot automatically assume high returns; returns still need to be proven by subsequent income, profit, and cash flow. Q2 If there are further gains or losses from large investments fair value, I will list them separately outside the title to avoid mixing them with my core business. Earnings per share are only considered as one of the results and not as the sole criterion. This way of splitting may not be as thrilling as a single phrase like "sudden rise or fall," but it better aligns with long-term content quality. The final draft also notes that free cash flow follows the company's official definition and details the actual impact of investment gains and losses on core net income.I just scanned the Alt/BTC pair, feeling a bit cold and warm. 🫧 Have you noticed that recently the market is quietly drawing a list of "winners vs losers"? This round of changes in the Alt/BTC pair is actually a case of funds voting with their feet, repricing expectations on every token. This is not just a numbers game of ups and downs, but the market telling us which side to take. Let's take a look at the data I have on hand: - SOL/BTC rose 8%, blockchain game token LAB/BTC gained 15%, and BSB/BTC gained 12% — these are the winners of active accumulation. - On the other side, BEAT/BTC fell 20%, COAI/BTC dropped 25%, and SPACE/BTC dropped 30%—these were the ruthless losers abandoned. Why is it important? Because the Alt/BTC pair is a thermometer of risk appetite. When funds withdraw from tokens with unclear narratives and poor liquidity and concentrate into stocks like SOL, JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, CHIP, ZKP, which have clear ecosystem or community support, it signals that the market is undergoing a "meritocracy" reshuffle. This is not a simple sector rotation, but a repricing of each project: whoever delivers on the narrative stays; Whoever has only slogans left is left behind. But the risks are also hidden in the details. Some coins on the winner list, like JELLYJELLY, have seen too steep short-term gains, and once BTC experiences a pullback, they may be the first to be smashed by profit-takers. As for BEAT, EDGE, and COAI on the losing list, if their fundamentals don't change abruptly, the probability of continued declines is high. At the same time, the overall Alt/BTC pair did not see a broad surge, indicating limited total capital and not a market frenzy but more like subtraction. My understanding is: now is not the time to blindly buy knockoffs, but rather to reduce and move positions closer to the winners' list, decisively cutting losses against losers. In terms of rhythm, if BTC can hold steady at its current level, strong coins on the winner list may continue to accumulate shares; But if BTC drops sharply, the winners will also be under pressure, but they will rebound faster. So, to sum it up in one sentence: follow the winners, don't date the losers. 💫 (A brief disclaimer: The above are only personal market observation notes and do not constitute any trade advice. Please make independent judgments.) ) $SOL $JELLYJELLY $OPG $SLX $LAB $BSB $ALLO $CHIP $ZKP $BEAT $EDGE $COAI $TRUMP $RAVE $SPACE $VIRTUAL $MEGA #AltBTC #加密市场 #风险管理 While the U.S. and Iran expect a ceasefire, the US stock market has just undergone a "bloodbath"—these two events may seem unrelated, but they are actually secretly intertwined. Today, let's break it down and talk about what secrets are really hidden behind all this. To start with the conclusion: the US stock market crashed in a flash, and it's not really the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but even the ceasefire failed to pull the market out of the pit. On July 24th, the US tech scene was known as "Black Thursday." When Google's parent company Alphabet released its earnings report, the market was stunned—capital expenditure this year is expected to reach $205 billion, but what about the money AI earns? No idea. Tesla is even worse, with profits far below expectations, and Musk even added that 2026 is a "big year of capital expenditure." As a result, the "Seven Tech Giants" lost nearly $800 billion in market value in a single day, causing the Nasdaq to plunge nearly 2%. What does this have to do with the US-Iran ceasefire? To be honest, it doesn't have much direct relevance. The culprit behind the crash that day was the weakening of the AI bubble's faith. Wall Street suddenly realized that these tech giants had spent hundreds of billions on AI, but the returns were far off. It's like your friend borrowing money from you every day, saying they want to start a business, but after three years of borrowing, you still haven't seen the product. Aren't you panicking? But the US-Iran conflict has always been 'fanning the flames' from the sidelines. Let's look at the timeline in a longer way. In 2026, the US-Iran conflict will last from the beginning of the year to mid-year, with the Strait of Hormuz opening and closing, and oil prices riding a roller coaster. When oil prices rise, inflation can't be suppressed, and the Fed's rate cuts are a distant prospect. So what are tech stocks most afraid of? The biggest fear is high interest rates. The valuations of those AI companies are all based on a "bright future" vision; when the discount rate is high, their current stock prices have to be discounted. So you see, although the US-Iran conflict didn't directly dump stocks, it planted a pitfall for tech stocks → high valuations through the hidden lines of oil prices→ inflation, and interest rates. The market is like a taut string; AI financial reports are the last straw that breaks the camel's back, and geopolitical risks have long made this string tight enough. By July 27, the US and Iran suddenly said, "Let's not fight for now," causing oil prices to plunge 6%, and Brent crude plunged from its peak to $91. Logically, this would be huge news—with oil prices falling and inflationary pressure easing, could the Federal Reserve finally breathe a sigh of relief? U.S. stock futures did rise that day, with Nasdaq futures jumping 1.2%. But strangely, the market did not celebrate excessively. Why? Because traders have learned their lesson. How long can this ceasefire last? There was also a halt two weeks ago, but Iran was accused of violating the agreement. Trump lashed out on social media, and the stock market still fell. More importantly, the Houthis continue to attack Saudi oil facilities, with fewer than 10 cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily, and shipowners are afraid to enter the area. This ceasefire feels more like a "halftime break" than a "final whistle." So, do you understand? The relationship between the US-Iran ceasefire and the US stock market crash is not simply causal, but rather a kind of "superimposed" vulnerability. The market faces two uncertainties simultaneously: one is the geopolitical "black box"—when Trump tweets, oil prices can jump wildly; The other is the "falsification" of AI narratives—can hundreds of billions really be spent? These two risks are not mutually exclusive, but rather amplify. When local market risk is high, people can use "risk avoidance" to explain holding positions; But when AI's fundamentals start to collapse, the market can no longer find safe havens. What's even more painful is that a US-Iran ceasefire has exposed a problem: even if oil prices fall, can the tech stock problem be solved? The answer is no. Alphabet still has to spend 205 billion, and Tesla's Robotaxi should be postponed. Falling oil prices at most open up some room for the Fed to cut rates, but valuation restructuring of tech stocks is unavoidable. Simply put, the market turmoil in July 2026 is a relay race between "old risks" (geopolitical conflicts) and "new risks" (AI bubbles). The US-Iran conflict has scared the market into a cold sweat, and AI earnings reports have left the market stunned. With the news of the ceasefire, the geopolitical baton has temporarily been set aside, but the AI baton is still pushing forward—and heading toward a cliff. For ordinary investors like us, it's important to understand this: don't assume the stock market should rise just because oil prices have dropped or stopped operations. If tech giants' performance can't hold up, even easing geopolitical tensions won't support high valuations. Conversely, if AI can truly deliver returns, even if the Strait of Hormuz closes again, the market can still hold out. In short: a US-Iran ceasefire can save oil prices, but it cannot save AI's faith crisis. The US stock market crash is, on the surface, a financial report crash, but in reality, the market is collectively "clear-headed" amid multiple uncertainties. Instead of betting on how long the ceasefire will last, it's better to seriously think—when will the promises those tech companies have been making will finally be ready?SanDisk SNDK plunges! Don't look for negative news everywhere; the truth is hidden in the logic of cycles $SNDK Today, Sandisk experienced a clear pullback, prompting many people to immediately look for sudden negative announcements. Reviewing public information, it is clear that the company did not experience any major black swan events today; the decline was driven by a three-layer logic resonance and capital adjustments. 1. Fundamental expectations for the industry have loosened Sandisk's core business is NAND flash memory, with its stock price highly tied to storage cycles. According to TrendForce's latest industry data for July: AI server demand continues to provide support, but demand for consumer electronics terminals remains weak. Downstream customers are nearing their upper limit for high-priced chips, and the increase in NAND contract prices has narrowed significantly. The spot market only stabilized briefly, and overall actual buying momentum was not strong. As major original manufacturers continue to expand production and advance technological iterations, the market is beginning to worry that the supply-demand pattern will gradually loosen going forward. To put it bluntly: the market is beginning to maneuver, the flash memory price hike is nearing its peak, and profit growth is falling short of previous expectations. 2. Storage sector funds collectively reduced holdings, and sector betas plunged Recently, memory-related stocks such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have weakened in tandem, with the storage sector generally pulling back more than 20% from previous highs. Funds are shifting their trading approach: no longer blindly betting on AI + storage price increases, and beginning to reassess whether high valuations can be sustained. Sandisk, as a pure NAND cyclical asset, has extremely high volatility flexibility. During the sector's capital exit phase, it is naturally sold off simultaneously; the decline is not entirely due to the individual stock's own problems. 3. Earnings window period game game: Funds choose to cash out early The company's key timelines have been clarified: the quarterly report and full-year results will be released on August 5, and the investor communication day will be held on August 13. Although the company announced progress on BICS10 1TB TLC 3D NAND samples in early July, which is a long-term technical benefit, short-term capital is more concerned about ASP prices, gross margins, and demand guidance for the second half of the year. In an environment where industry prosperity signals are weakening at the margin, funds choose to "cash in first and wait for earnings reports to verify expectations." For semiconductor cyclical stocks, it is very common for valuations to be cut ahead of earnings reports. ✅ To sum up this drop in one sentence: It wasn't a sudden negative news that triggered the rally, but rather a slowdown in NAND price momentum, weak consumer demand, and capital withdrawal across the entire storage sector. Combined with pre-earnings market expectations, the market downgraded Sandisk's short-term valuation ahead of schedule. Focus on three core signals to watch (trading reference) 1. Whether the decline continues to increase volume: This increase in volume indicates institutions are actively adjusting their positions, which is different from pure emotional fluctuations; 2. Whether the decline significantly underperformed peers: If the decline far exceeds other storage companies, it indicates negative news for independent stocks; 3. August 5 Financial Report Management's Guidance: This is the most critical dividing line between "short-term misselling" and "trend reversal." ⚠️ This is merely an industry logic review and does not constitute any investment advice $SNDK Over the past month, the defensiveness of the Bitcoin options market has noticeably declined, with the put to call ratio for open interest dropping from 0.76 at the end of June to about 0.52, and traders are unwinding the downside protection they built during the worst pullback—at a time when the Federal Reserve is preparing to meet on July 28-29. The one-week implied volatility narrowed to 34.3%, while the six-month implied volatility was 40.8%; The skew of the one-week 25 delta has dropped to about 4%, while the skew of three-month and six-month contracts remains around 11-12%. The options market expects the next seven days (including the Fed interest rate decision, major tech earnings reports, and oil prices near $97) to be quieter than in the next six months. During Thursday's sell-off, Bitcoin's price remained near $65,000. This sell-off caused the market value of the largest U.S. tech stock companies to evaporate by $797 billion, while blockchain networks Movement Labs and Storj filed for bankruptcy, and BitMEX and BitMart announced closure plans. Given the baseline assumption of a 15% rate hike in July, the recent low option pricing is acceptable—but if the Fed's statement or forecast turns out unexpectedly, the buffer is small, and such a weak position often amplifies this risk. Put/Call Ratio — Dropped from 0.76 to 0.52 Within One Month The put/call ratio fell from 0.76 at the end of June to the current 0.52, directly reflecting a significant reduction in defensive positions in the options market Oil prices plunged 7% in 7 minutes! $BTC Directly surged back to 65,000! The market is jumping ahead again! The US military bombed Iran for 13 days before suddenly announcing a ceasefire. As a result, international oil prices crashed 7% within minutes of opening, with Brent crude plunging from above $100 all the way to around $91. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures opened 1.4% higher, Bitcoin returned to $65,000, and gold and silver also rose. Last week, everyone was still frantically trading the script of oil prices breaking 100, uncontrolled inflation, and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, causing everyone to panic. As a result, after the U.S. military stopped for two days, oil prices crashed and all risk assets returned. The market's probability of a ceasefire before the end of August has now soared to 75%, as if this is already decided. But what about reality? Iran has clearly expressed doubts, saying the Houthis are still operating, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is severely disrupted. There is no sign of a ceasefire agreement at all. I increasingly feel that the market is not reflecting the real situation at all, but rather racing ahead of its own imagination. Last week I was still selling risk assets, but this week I rushed back to buy. The same group, the same region, the script was completely flipped in just seven days. Seeing this market trend made me shake my head; before the news even landed, the price had already run the whole way. Don't rush to chase highs, and don't be easily led by news. Let things settle first before dealing with them. $CL $BZ $BTC #美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened down sharply by #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 A couple of days ago, $ALLO suddenly plummeted, but now the price has gradually stabilized. This drop was quite significant, with the price dropping from about $0.55 to around $0.33, a drop of roughly 40%. This is not a small amount. If it can rebound now, even if it rebounds back to its original level, the increase could be 60-70%. According to previous patterns, $ALLO rebounds usually do not fall below the original position. In other words, bottom-fishing can yield significant returns. The question now is: can we buy the bottom at this price? —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data over the past few days. It can be seen that during the crash, its open interest rapidly declined, while its contract long-short ratio kept rising. My analysis shows that during the crash, many bears took profit. This is actually a good thing; short profit-taking indicates that the bears' strength is diminishing. Let me take another look at its contract data from the past two days. It can be seen that when the price remains largely stable, its open interest first decreases, then increases, and then rises again, forming a wave-like pattern. Personally, I believe this is the result of short closing and long bottom-fishing happening simultaneously. In the early stages, the process was first reduced and then increased. I think that's how the process works. After $ALLO fell, the main factor was the strength of short profit-taking; After $ALLO fell for a while, bullish bottom-fishing has once again become the main factor. After that, the increase and then decrease are as follows. I think that's how the process works. At $ALLO Looking at it now, the biggest benefit RWA has for retail investors is that it allows their funds to be fully utilized even during bear markets. A 4%–5% USD return is quite small, but it's much better than participating in high-risk DeFi mining. Now, Maple's pure U yield is close to 5%, and Plume also has an RWA yield vault, basically including traditional portfolios like bonds, CLOs, and funds. $Ondo has also started promoting stocks and ETF tokens into the lending market, Of course, RWA concept coins still operate on a different fundamental basis from these RWA businesses; governance tokens do not have the right to receive management fees, spreads, or dividends, Project revenue belongs to company shareholders, consensus belongs to token holders, Moreover, RWA projects themselves are very difficult to be affected by token prices, I find it hard to directly equate RWA tokens with blue-chip assets, Unless ONDO suddenly transitions into an on-chain RWA index. $DOGE $SOL #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Prediction Approach 1: Another sure-win market Predict has recently entered some markets, and liquidity is still being replenished. This year's Nobel Prize will be announced in early October by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo. The official list of candidates will not be made public, and all nomination information will be kept confidential for 50 years, so the public can only analyze based on public nominations, international affairs, and forecasted markets. The results of the awards often reflect the value orientations of mainstream European society regarding peace, human rights, international law, and humanitarianism. 1⃣ Putin, Netanyahu—one Russia-Ukraine war, one Gaza conflict, the possibility is zero. The probability of a certain university and Elon Musk is basically zero. Zelensky and the International Court of Justice are just here to play a role. 2⃣ Trump, if he can end the Iran conflict, there is a slight chance. 3⃣ Currently, in the prediction market: the probability of organizations winning is significantly higher than that of individuals 🥇Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms have gained widespread international recognition for organizing grassroots relief, medical care, and food aid during the Sudanese civil war. 🥈Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) has long been involved in humanitarian relief in conflict zones such as Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine. 🥉 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for the Near East (UNRWA) These three are the most likely ones. So choosing No1 is basically a guaranteed profit. The price isn't large, but you can take PP and follow your position OKBoost has released another famous airdrop, but it's not really recommended to farm 1. Currently, @okboost has almost no remaining airdrops on its books 2. Currently, the total airdrop value is 360,000 USD. Assuming 100,000 people participate, each would be 3.6 USD, which is not Da Mao 3. Airdrop to alpha users today, then to boost users tomorrow. Now that Alpha users have been cut in half, tomorrow Boost users will add another cut, and even 30 units might not be enough 4. Costs have surged. After Boost changed its rules, it forced everyone to farm mainstream coins like $OKB OKB and BTC on Xlayer, but Xlayer had poor liquidity and very high wear and tear. Previously, a single $USDG cycle (46% commission) only cost 23U, but now it might double to about 40U. Relying on an airdrop alone can't break even. Although QIC costs much lower, I've analyzed in the community that the probability of $qic witches is much higher than other tokens. Cold Salad $LAB In 2000, the dot-com bubble burst. Hundreds and thousands of websites wiped out overnight, and media and investors almost unanimously said: the internet is a scam. Back then, the internet was just searching, shopping, and emailing—it didn't seem novel, and the future was uncertain. But at the most pessimistic moment, Google and Amazon have already started to emerge. Google has matured the advertising model, and countless websites have stable income for the first time; Amazon has gradually integrated payment, logistics, and recommendation systems, enabling e-commerce to truly form a complete ecosystem. Later, people realized that an industry doesn't need to be full of flowers from the start; as long as one or two truly self-sustaining and real-demand applications run smoothly, it is enough to drive continuous ecosystem expansion. Today, many people look at blockchain much like they did back in the day, when they viewed the internet. Feeling there was no innovation or future, the only ones that truly broke out and could make money seemed to be stablecoins and RWA, so a group of people turned to chase AI and left the crypto world. But from another perspective, if RWA truly runs and scales up, it could very well be like Google and Amazon back then, giving rise to new applications and business models that we can't even imagine today. More importantly, RWA is currently one of the few sectors that truly attracts real money from traditional finance, with institutions like BlackRock, Franklin, Circle, Ondo, and WisdomTree all making moves. At this point, instead of constantly guessing the next hot topic, it's better to focus more on observing whether RWAs are still rapidly expanding and which assets can truly capture this wave of value, such as ETH, DeFi, and other infrastructure. A truly revolutionary innovation often brings dividends not just one or two years, but more than ten years. When the first-generation iPhone was released in 2007, no one expected Apple to grow to where it is today; Google and Amazon are no exception. As long as the direction is right, real opportunities often belong to those willing to stay at the table. $ETH $BTC $SNDK #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 The market is taking a breather after the US-Iran pause. The Dow rose 429 points, while the S&P was barely moving. Oil prices dropped sharply—Brent dropped 6.8% to $90.25, and WTI dropped 6.1% to $83.83. A typical "risk-seeking retreat." Geopolitical premiums are being rapidly priced out. If oil prices continue to fall, this will ease deflationary pressures—giving the central bank more room to cut rates without fearing another surge in inflation. Watch how this will affect Fed expectations and broader risk appetite. Lower energy costs = more disposable income = future consumer spending data may be better. It is still too early, but such trends often trigger chain reactions in currency markets and capital flows in emerging markets. $CL $BZ $BTC #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower Three days ago, my account still had 20,000 left, but today I saw it had reached 80,000. Just kidding—real accounts aren't this dramatic. But the internal division within the sector is even more exciting than the account curve. Bitcoin is in the red today. If you only look at total market cap, you'd think everyone is happy together. Then guess what? SHIB dropped about 8 points in one day, M dropped over 5 points, and VVV was about the same magnitude. On one side, the mainstream stabilized; on the other, previously hot names are giving back. This isn't a "full-market crash"—it's a realignment of seats. First, sentiment coins that have risen too much are the easiest to take profits first On the gainers chart, PUMP BEAT is still bouncing, but on the losers list is another group of yesterday's stars, showing that money hasn't left crypto but is just being squeezed out of crowded trading. Second, ETH is actually close to a 4-point strength today. Funds prefer to stay on big players with narrative and liquidity. Small-cap, high-volatility stocks are dumped at the slightest sign of trouble. Third, don't treat the decliners list as doomsday lists. When structural divergence occurs, the biggest fear is holding onto the most crowded segment and using leverage. So my judgment is that when reading losses tonight, first ask "Who is falling?" Mainstream support Edge drawdowns should prioritize reducing crowding and preserving core stocks, rather than just seeing a popular knockoff and thinking the bear market is returning. Also, let's take a look at what everyone has been talking about recently: #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables. Changxin's surge in the STAR Market rewrites the global storage pricing narrative, Korean storage stocks surged intraday but then retreated, reflecting crypto as AI hardware themes with repeated pricing. Don't buy all AI-related coins at once, distinguishing between order logic and pure sentiment tickets I'm a bit of a gambler and just copied some Micron $MU Today's decline is likely due to the panic theme created by Changxin being used to further push prices down, combined with the recent speculation about this week's FOMC rate hike. But I think if the Fed raises rates just to set an example and establish authority, it actually undermines its own authority. Didn't they say everything depends on data? Right now, the data doesn't support rate hikes But I was indeed wondering this afternoon: could the recent rebound in oil prices over the past two weeks also provide an excuse for rate hikes? Leaving the market unpredictable is Walsh's true intention. Since it's unpredictable, they won't guess. After buying firmly, they bet they won't increase, but if they do, it will be in September. Previous low of 855 loss, break and run #Changxin Technology goes public, adding variables to global storage competition #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative? $ETH $SNDK I just finished lunch and casually checked the market quotes, and my mouth almost spat out the food It's not that BTC has risen I saw an analyst report Bernstein raised Naver's target price by 58% 58%. Not 5. 8% A top investment bank gives a Korean internet company 58% of the upside potential What is the reason? AI factory strategy I was stunned for a moment Isn't Naver basically a search engine? Looking closely, Naver has long been more than just searching Its layout in AI infrastructure From data centers to AI chips to cloud services The entire chain is being implemented Bernstein said this is the AI factory strategy To put it bluntly It's about building AI like a factory Then guess what On the same day, SK Hynix's Q2 results are also expected to hit a record high South Korea's AI industry chain It is being repriced across the board Storage Hynix Search Naver At every stage, institutions are raising their expectations This is not an isolated Korean story It is the performance of the entire AI hardware industry chain So my judgment is AI investment has moved from concept speculation to a performance validation phase A company that can produce real things It will be repriced by the market You can't get it Gradually, they are forgotten Finally, let's talk about today's market hotspots, with several directions worth watching: #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 This scale of 250 billion is no longer an investment but an industry-level endorsement. Nvidia's bet on OpenAI shows that AI's commercialization prospects have reached a level where such guarantees can be afforded, which is a positive signal for the entire tech sector #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 The RWA sector's monthly trading volume of 470 billion indicates that institutional-level funds are already being used. This is not a small move, but a real volume. Coupled with the standards for tokenized securities delisting and regulation keeping pace, once the direction is set, it's only a matter of time #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables Changxin reached 130 billion yuan on its first day, with 61% of the trading hands in Korea. Korean retail investors were short on the US and funds went long. This tear apart itself is a microcosm of global storage repricing. The storage sector has shifted from a cyclical industry to an AI-driven growth sector, and the logic has changed #AI #存储 #科技股 I've been watching since yesterday afternoon, my eyes are almost blinded, but it's worth it. Because I discovered an interesting data: BTC's market cap realized value ratio has dropped to a multi-year low. Many people might not be familiar with this indicator, so let me briefly explain: this indicator measures the deviation between BTC's market value and realized value. Simply put, when this indicator is low, it means the market is in an undervalued zone; when it is high, it means the market is overheated. It is currently at multi-year lows, but analysis also says the bottom hasn't been fully explored. This 'not yet' is very subtle, meaning the price is not high But it might be even lower. And guess what? I actually think this is an opportunity. Why? Because today there are still three buy signals bright: USDC and USDT premium are buy-BTC liquidity indexes, borrowing rates are buy-like, and buy data does not support a deeper decline. So my judgment is that the phrase "low but not bottomed" itself is a left-side positioning signal. You don't necessarily have to buy at the lowest point, but starting to build positions in batches at this level is probably a smart choice. By the way, let's talk about some hot topics. See if there's anything you care about: #美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply with a sharp drop. Oil prices dropped more than two points, but Hormuz hasn't been opened yet. Iran also says negotiations haven't resumed. This pause feels more like a tactical adjustment. BTC continues to hover at 65K. Desensitization between geopolitics and BTC is already very clear. Instead of focusing on oil prices, it's better to look at ETF data. #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 The new draft includes moral clauses, which is a good thing To be honest, $WLD coin is pretty frustrating. The March 2024 high was $11.8, now it's $0.38, down 97%, lying on the ground for nearly two years without anyone looking at it. But in recent days, things suddenly started to happen—on July 20, Grayscale submitted an application to the SEC for a WLD spot ETF (ticker GWLD, listed on Nasdaq), the Worldcoin Foundation sold 217 million coins at a 36% discount, raising $52.5 million for Pantera, and the July 24 milestone when daily unlocks cut 43% had just passed. With several lines coming together, this coin has quietly rebounded 67% from the May low of 0.2279. I think this project's narrative has always been sexy, but the price has always been disappointing. Now it might be a window worth a look. Let's talk about three perspectives below. 📈 ------ Market: Still in the hole, but some have started digging the soil. Currently, WLD is priced around $0.38, with a market cap of about $1.34 billion, ranking outside the top 40 in the crypto sector. On the day the news about Grayscale ETF broke, it surged more than 8% in one go, breaking above the upper boundary of the 4-hour downward channel, and selling pressure seemed to ease a bit. But note—the main logic behind this rebound is that the market is betting early on a lower unlock rate on July 24, which is an "expectation trade," not that fundamentals have already been realized. Technically, 0.38-0.40 is a support zone, with resistance at 0.4536 above, and further up 0.58-0.60 is the initial trapping zone. Don't get carried away just by hearing about ETFs. Grayscale just handed over S-1 prices, still far from actually tradable, for reference JTO、JELLYJELLY 等代币正在积累流动性，而BEAT、TRUMP等则进入降温阶段，MEME、ZKP等仍处于无资金状态。这次轮动是否具备了趋势延续的条件，还是即将面临失效？原文提供了四个关键信息：一是资金正在从几个热门品种撤退，二是少数代币仍获流动性注入，三是大部分品种流动性枯竭，四是BTC、ETH、SOL、TAO、WLD、HYPE、DOGE、ZEC被定位为市场核心锚点。这些信息均基于观测到的链上资金流向，属于可验证的短期事实。从市场结构看，这并非典型的山寨季，而是一场极度选择性的资金再分配。流动性集中在JTO、JELLYJELLY、BTCOPG、BTCSLX、LAB、BSB、ALLO、CHIP这8个代币上，其余品种面临资金抽离。这种分布表明市场风险偏好正在收窄，而非扩散。对BTC和ETH而言，资金从广泛的山寨中抽离，反而可能强化它们作为流动性避风港的地位，尤其是BTC，原文称其为"流动性之王"。ETH则可能受益于机构资金的相对偏好。SOL承担高贝塔角色，其价格波动将放大山寨板块的整体情绪。偏多路径的条件：如果JTO、JELLYJELLY等代币的流动性积累能持续并带动价格突破关键阻力位（如JTO的周线前高），可能引发新一轮的跟风买盘，从而将轮动从"收缩"转为"扩散"。此时，BTC和ETH的稳定或突破将成为风险偏好的催化剂。偏空风险的条件：如果BEAT、TRUMP、RAVE等降温品种出现加速下跌，或者MEME、ZKP等无资金品种继续失血，将证明资金轮动已进入尾声而非中继。此时，市场风险溢价将急剧上升，BTC和ETH也可能因流动性抽离而承压。特别是HYPE作为风险偏好指标，若其价格跌破关键支撑，将确认市场偏好恶化。失效条件：轮动趋势失效的核心场景是，资金重新回流至降温品种，而积累品种出现放量下跌。这通常意味着轮动周期已结束，市场将进入整体调整。趋势失效的关键信号：观察BEAT、TRUMP等降温品种是否在三天内收复失地，以及MEME、ZKP等是否出现放量异动。前者若发生，表明资金仍在寻找替代标的；后者若发生，则可能是超跌反弹而非趋势反转。结论：当前轮动结构高度脆弱，趋势是否延续取决于积累品种能否突破并带动资金扩散，而非降温品种的反弹。若三天内积累品种无法突破，降温品种加速下跌，则应视为轮动失效信号，降低风险敞口。风险提示：本观察仅基于原文信息，不构成任何交易建议。$BTC $ETH $JTO $HYPE $DOGE $ZEC Looking at a 2-3 year cycle, mainstream crypto coins are a highly certain allocation choice. The US storage sector continues to decline, making it difficult to predict a cycle reversal; The hardware sector also experienced a sharp correction, with heavy positions risking extremely high levels; The software track is also not currently the main theme of the market. The current level of the A-share market does not have an absolute advantage at low levels. Looking at global assets, mainstream crypto stocks like Bitcoin and $BTC have clear bull-bear cycles and a clear recovery logic. Currently, BTC's AHR999 indicator is 0.34, already below the classic bottom-fishing line of 0.45, which is a suitable range for dollar-cost averaging. Bitcoin has previously fallen below the 200-week moving average, a signal that has appeared at the bottom of every bear market in history. In terms of timing, the second half of the year is generally a phase of bottoming out and searching, and it will gradually enter the bull market on the right side only by mid-next year. Retail investors with average swing trading skills should avoid frequent short-term trading at this stage, as it is easy to miss out on subsequent upward moves.I almost thought I was blind during this morning's refreshing—$SHIB Today I directly pierced the bottom of the 0.0000060 range, which had been sideways for two weeks. The current price is around 0.00000588, down 4%-5% in 24 hours. Trading volume didn't expand, but the selling pressure was real. Here are a few points worth pondering about today: 1) Whales are quietly trading, not quietly buying. CMF (Capital Flow) turned negative, and large wallets have been moving goods on-chain to exchanges these past two days. Macro instability + overall meme wave is retreating, with big funds first withdrawing from high-cap memes. 2) Burning coins at 1034% is a "good-looking but useless" stat. This week it burned tens of millions to hundreds of millions, sounds impressive, but SHIB's total supply is 589 trillion, and the burning is barely enough to fill the gaps. Short-term prices can't be pushed and can only be considered a long-term placebo. 3) Shibarium failed to catch the moment. Originally, the story was about leveraging L2 to pull real TPS and shed the pure meme label, but new ecosystem memes competed for traffic, Shibarium's growth slowed, and the narrative returned to "relying on BTC's face." At the technical level, the next stop is 0.0000050, which analysts refer to as the "multi-year bottom." If it holds, there's still a chance to bounce to 0.0000068; if not, that's another story. Personal commentary: SHIB is a token with a few hundred T supply, no BTC big bullish candlestick + no new narrative double buff, relying solely on coin burning for digital hype, third place Changxin Technology's first day of listing, A-shares are crazy, but US storage stocks crashed first. Tonight, Hynix $SKHY, Micron $MU, and SanDisk $SNDK all plummeted. The market has already started to worry that after Changxin expands production, global DRAM competition will become increasingly fierce. Today is just the first day; the real game is just beginning. Is it that Changxin has changed the global storage landscape, or is it that capital is taking profits by trading on the news?The market is indeed dull and boring now, and fewer bloggers persist in daily market updates. Cash itself is a type of position, and patience is also a trading strategy. In the short term, the market is likely to remain volatile. During the decline in February this year, I already marked a consolidation range. This level had strong support, and without sudden major negative news, it was hard to break below directly. It was destined to be a prolonged round grinding session. Personally, I believe it will be very difficult to return to the previous high of $82,000 this year. This rebound, based on weekly moving average resistance, $BTC is highly likely to test $71,000-72,000, with Ethereum looking toward around $2,100. If it subsequently effectively breaks below the $60,000 mark, I believe the probability remains high. Currently, there is no major systemic negative news in the market. Previously, FTX's collapse was mostly triggered by institutions themselves being overly leveraged and lacking risk control to trigger a chain crisis. Now, as small and medium-sized exchanges gradually exit the market, the core reason is that the industry's incremental capital is drying up, competition for existing assets is becoming increasingly fierce, and platforms with weaker business capabilities are naturally being phased out. Overall, the market is in a long phase of stock reshuffling, with no new grand narrative, so there's no need to forcefully seek trading opportunities. If there is a fluctuation, patiently observe and watch; the market can wait, but there is no need to rush funds into the market.What I'm really interested in today is Trench Life, but for now, it's only worth putting on a very early watchlist. What attracts me most isn't how much the price has just gone up, but that the website really does have a full set of 3D browser games loaded behind the scenes. I checked the code loaded on the website. It doesn't just have promotional text, but also includes shared cities, player online status, quests, vehicles, identity claims, and multiplayer server logic; The game code also directly includes the correct token contract. This at least proves that products and tokens are not temporarily pieced together on pages with the same name. Complete contract: 92t87DktrvYAi4yuv4TwhAbF4E2C934rJf9zqgsipump Game: https://trenchlife.io/ Trading data: https://dexscreener.com/solana/DJ1uErUg6qqy8ZDSQPmEXByPZ4jNVmMVyk1ZYdUW6V86 Security and holdings: https://rugcheck.xyz/tokens/92t87DktrvYAi4yuv4TwhAbF4E2C934rJf9zqgsipump The on-chain surface has not yet encountered the most glaring issues. At the time of initial recording, the price was about $0.000128, with an estimated total value of about $118,000, and the trading pool funds were about $24,700;Revolut started selling $AAVE directly from cold storage. Over the past 24 hours, more than $6.44M has been sent to Coinbase per $AAVE. Previously, Revolut usually sold AAVE through hot wallets. But in recent days, the situation has changed. Now the coins have begun to be withdrawn from cold storage and sent to the exchange for sale. For me, this says two things. Firstly, the liquidity of the $AAVE is now quite high. Secondly, a major player seems to have decided to take advantage of this moment and sell the volume directly to the demand of buyers. When even cold storage begins to become a source of supply, I would keep a close eye on further flows. The community streamed live in the evening on short orders of $ETH, which have steadily departed Given as the broadcast nears end, as long as it doesn't break below a new low! Rebound 45 second entry 🎉 currently on $ETH #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Tonight's market is quite interesting—within the same storage sector, A-shares and US stocks have become polarized opposites. Changxin Technology (688825) made its debut on the STAR Market today, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan. It closed at nearly 49 yuan, an increase of 471%, with a market value reaching 3.31 trillion yuan, directly topping the A-share market with daily turnover exceeding 100 billion yuan, setting a new historical record for the A-share market. At the same time, on the US side, SanDisk fell 12%, Micron down 6%, Philadelphia Semiconductor down 4.25%, and storage ETFs (DRAM) down 8.75%. One card table, two faces. Who the money is with, who is being embraced? No need to say more. Whose cheese is Changxin really messing with this time? Many people get confused—Changxin is making DRAM (memory), SanDisk is NAND (flash storage), so theoretically, they're not direct competitors. But tonight, SanDisk was smashed along with Micron, not because of product benchmarking, but because the "overseas storage monopoly premium" was completely repriced. With Changxin's IPO today, several lines have been revealed simultaneously: • ByteDance's $7 billion and five-year long-term contract, revealed by Reuters, showing that Changxin is no longer a "domestic substitution concept" but can truly compete with Chinese customers from overseas giants • By the end of 2026, monthly production capacity will reach 350,000 wafers, SemiAnalysis approaches, approaching Micron and aiming for third place globally; The prospectus says 17% DRAM share for 2028 • The Hefei phase II construction site is still booming late at night, with full lines laid out in Beijing and Shanghai Lingang, expanding production much more aggressively than Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron—the overseas three are 'expanding in discussion,' while Changxin is 'expanding on the run' in the past two years Changxin Technology goes public, officially entering the "Three Giants Era" of global DRAM competition The global storage industry has encountered the biggest variable in the past decade On July 27, domestic DRAM leader Changxin Technology officially debuted on the STAR Market, with a market value exceeding 3.3 trillion yuan on the first day of listing. This is not only one of the most watched IPOs on the A-share market this year but also signifies that China's storage industry has officially entered the global capital market's spotlight, bringing a new competitor to the DRAM market long dominated by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. In the past two years, the explosive demand for AI servers has driven continuous price increases for HBM and high-end DRAM, with Samsung and SK Hynix almost monopolizing the global AI storage dividends thanks to their technological advantages. Just before Changxin's listing, Anthropic signed storage supply agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix respectively, and Nvidia also increased investment in the Korean AI ecosystem. The market once believed that the global AI storage industry chain would further concentrate in Korea. However, Changxin's listing means this pattern is beginning to change. For global customers, DRAM supply now has a third, more sizable option for the first time; for the industry chain, Chinese manufacturers, supported by the capital market, will further enhance R&D investment and production capacity expansion, with prospects to continuously increase their share in consumer, server, and industrial DRAM markets. In the long term, the competitive logic of the global storage industry will evolve from the previous "duopoly game" to a "three-giant competition." The capital market has already started to price this in. The Korean KOSPI index surged and then retreated that day, reflecting investors' reassessment of future profit distribution in the global storage industry. As Chinese production capacity continues to be released, DRAM price cycles, capital expenditures of major manufacturers, and HBM supply-demand balance will become core variables determining the next industry boom. Storage demand driven by the AI era continues to grow, but the biggest future change may no longer be who has the most orders, but who can control the discourse power of the next round of the global storage industry. $BTC $ETH $KAITO #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 It looks like $ONDO has one very interesting seller. A multisig 0xb7B wallet linked to Ondo Finance sent 4.014M $ONDO worth about $1.62M to Coinbase today. But the most interesting thing happened earlier. Just 3 hours earlier, the wallet received 22.5M $ONDO from 0xEA5. This address regularly transfers tokens to wallets associated with Ondo, and the 0xEA5 itself is also owned by Ondo Finance and has been used to sell tokens on Coinbase. The size of each deposit to the exchange is usually around 4M $ONDO The pattern is too stable. It's almost as if it's pre-programmed. Now the question is: how much more $ONDO left for such sales? This $BTC rally will eventually fail like all others in this bear market. Because it has the same structural flaw as every one before it. Spot volume has fallen to a new cycle low while perp volume continues to mirror price higher. This is now the third consecutive bear market rally where the same divergence has developed. Each completed example was followed by a 15–30% flush within weeks. The mechanism is simple. Once perpetual positioning begins to unwind, there is not enough spot demand underneath the structure to absorb the cascade. Whether BTC tops at $67K or squeezes into $70K first changes very little. As long as this divergence remains, the rally is still missing the spot demand needed to survive the unwind.Day 10 of breakeven | Currently 115u 1. In the afternoon, I couldn't control my trade, so I opened a long order for Bitcoin $BTC, with an entry point of 65,300. Originally planned to take profits at 500 points, but the market continued to decline, so a 1:1 increase was made at 64,800, correcting the average position price to 65,100. I held my position from 3 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. The long sideways decline didn't shake my mindset. After patiently waiting, I saw a rally, successfully reached the take-profit level, and pocketed 5 U. This is also the longest position I've held, and I can clearly feel my mindset has improved. I no longer feel anxious about short-term declines, and can calmly assess the situation and implement response plans. This is considered a recent good harvest, officially entering a rhythm of sustained profitability. 2. Let's talk about the recent market plunge behind the Federal Reserve's #Changxin Technology Listing, Global Storage Competition Adds Variables Expectations Logic. Yixiu has compiled relevant information: Oil prices continue to rise, reigniting inflation concerns, and the probability of a Fed rate hike this week has surged from about 10% last week to over 30%. Since Walsh took office, the Fed has chosen to streamline its external statements and reduce policy hints, prompting the market to shift from relying on officials' forward-looking speeches to closely following various economic data for judgment. Subsequent data fluctuations will cause more frequent market volatility and requires close attention.Anyone who has lost hope in coins today should read this story! In the cryptocurrency market, sometimes to understand the future, we need to temporarily set aside our attachment to the future and instead look back at the past. Because the psychological state we are experiencing today is something we have experienced before. Bitcoin rebounded from the $4,000 level and climbed all the way to $41,000. That's almost a tenfold increase...... So what about altcoins? The large-scale altcoin bull market people dreamed of never materialized. Bitcoin is rising, while most altcoins are stagnant. People started saying the same thing again: The era of altcoins is over. Nothing rose except #Bitcoin. These coins are out of the question. Then Bitcoin plunged from the $41,000 level to $29,000. The real psychological warfare begins from that point. Altcoins that barely moved during Bitcoin's rise were completely crushed when Bitcoin fell. People have lost confidence in coins that have been held for several months. Many people gave up completely during that period. Sold it. Exit the market. Swearing never to touch cryptocurrency again. And do you know what happened afterward? Bitcoin has regained from the $29,000 area. First, $40,000...... Then $50,000...... It then broke through $60,000 and reached the $65,000 level. What the market has long awaited has finally happened. The altcoins woke up. Coins that had been stagnant for months began to show unimaginable gains within weeks. A tenfold increase is not even worth mentioning. 50 times ...... 100x ...... 1000 times ...... Some projects have even seen gains of 200 or 1200 times, flying everywhere. Those who were just a few months ago asking "Why aren't altcoins rising?" This time, people began to ask: Is this coin still available for purchase now? Do you know what's most absurd and laughable about this? Those coins that no one wanted at the bottom, after they rose 10 or 20 times, people trampled on each other to buy them. Because the market has changed. But in fact, what has changed is not the market. It's people's psychology. At the bottom is fear. When it rises, it's greed. And today, we are once again in a period when people's patience is running out. Bitcoin is in ...... Altcoins have not shown the expected performance. People don't want to open their portfolios. Confidence in altcoins on social media is weakening day by day. I heard the same sentence again: The altcoin bull market will never return. This market is not what it used to be. Altcoins are dead. I've heard these things before. And it was on the eve of the major altcoin bull market...... Of course, what happened in the past does not guarantee that it will repeat exactly. But the market has an unchanging habit in human psychology: It prefers to distribute large sums of wealth only after most people's patience has run out. So today, I'm not just looking at the price. I also see how tired people are. Because sometimes, you can sense a bull's approach from people's despair earlier than from charts. Today, probably everyone hates altcoins. Today, when you look at your portfolio, it feels like nothing will happen. But don't forget...... Before those 200-fold or 800-fold gains started to be widely discussed, no one could laugh about it. Then the market suddenly changed. Those who waited months changed their lives within weeks. In the cryptocurrency space, wealth is sometimes not built during price increases, but on days when no one believes it will rise. I'm still here. A little more patience. Because in my view, we haven't seen the real drama yet. ⏳ I wrote this post, and the same people will say the same thing again...... 🤫Last night I had a dream—I dreamed the coin had gone up. When I woke up, I saw it really went up. But not because of a rebound, but because of a policy announcement. The tokenized securities business of leading firms is starting to implement delisting standards today. To be honest, I never took this much seriously, thinking it was just the platform adjusting its product line. But after careful study, I found it's not that simple. The essence of tokenized securities is to move traditional stocks on-chain. This direction is at the forefront of the RWA sector, but compliance issues have never been resolved. Now the delisting standards have been released This means regulation is tightening—not suppression, but telling the industry what is allowed and what is not. And guess what? The capital market's reaction is interesting: traditional finance sees this as crypto moving toward regulation, while the crypto community sees tokenized securities moving toward compliance. Both sides think it's a good thing, but I actually think this shows the RWA sector is moving from wild growth to standardization. In the long run, this is an inevitable growing pain. So my judgment is that this delisting is not the end, but the necessary path for the RWA sector to become compliant There may be short-term fluctuations, but medium- to long-term is positive. Back to hot topics outside the main market, here are a few interesting things today: #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 The monthly trading volume of 470 billion already shows that RWA is no longer just a concept; it is a real large-scale market. This delisting standard is essentially regulators keeping pace with the market. The direction is correct, just a bit bumpy in the process. #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 this Meta Q2 財報前瞻：廣告增長與 1,250 億美元資本開支要一起看 Meta 已確認會在美股 7 月 29 日收市後公布 Q2 2026 結果，電話會安排在太平洋時間下午 1:30。現在結果仍未發布，所以先用 Q1 官方數字建立基線，避免把市場預測或管理層前瞻誤寫成事實。 Q1 總營收 563.11 億美元，按年增長 33%；營業利潤 228.72 億美元，營業利潤率 41%。Family of Apps 廣告曝光量增長 19%，平均廣告價格增長 12%，兩個引擎同時上升，解釋了廣告收入的強度。Q2 最先要核對的是這兩項是否仍能共同增長，還是其中一項開始放慢。另一邊是投入。Q1 包含融資租賃本金在內的資本開支為 198.4 億美元。Meta 把 2026 全年資本開支前瞻由 1,150 億至 1,350 億美元上調到 1,250 億至 1,450 億美元，理由包括零組件價格與未來資料中心容量。這是公司前瞻，不是已發生的全年支出。財報後要用現金流量表、資本開支與折舊趨勢，判斷 AI 基礎設施投入是否開始壓縮自由現金流和營業利潤率。 Meta 上一季對 Q2 的公司前瞻是營收 580 億至 610 億美元，並假設匯率帶來約兩個百分點順風。正式結果出來後，除了比較區間，也要剔除匯率影響，再看廣告曝光量和單價的真實變化。若只看名義營收，很容易高估核心增長。我的判讀順序是：先看廣告量價，再看 Family of Apps 利潤，最後看資本開支與自由現金流。如果廣告仍強、利潤率穩定，增加 AI 支出較容易被本業吸收；如果收入放慢而支出再上修，市場對回報週期的要求會更高。正式公告前不猜結果，也不把「AI 投入增加」直接等同於「AI 已經帶來等額收入」。還要防止一個常見錯誤：把廣告曝光量與價格增速直接相加，當成廣告收入增速。兩者受到地區、版位、產品和匯率組合影響，不能做簡單加法。正式表格發布後，應以公司披露的廣告收入為主，再把曝光與價格當成驅動因素解釋。 Meta 也提醒仍面對歐美法律與監管事項。這類風險若沒有新的正式披露，不應在熱門稿中放大成已發生損失；如果 10-Q 更新或電話會提供具體金額，再獨立說明。我的原則是財務數字、營運指標、管理層前瞻和風險因素四層分開，避免一個樂觀或悲觀標題把不同性質的資訊混成一團。結果出現後還會核對 10-Q，避免新聞稿摘要漏掉重要附註。This morning, when I opened the exchange, I almost smashed my phone—not because the coins I bought dropped, but because I saw a news article: SK Hynix's second-quarter performance is expected to hit a record high. You read that right—a record high. With explosive demand for AI chips, memory manufacturers are entering a super cycle. I used to think storage was a cyclical industry—two years up and three years off. But this time it's different. AI training requires HBM, and only SK Hynix and Samsung can do it. That's a technical barrier, not a capacity cycle This afternoon, there was another interesting piece of data: Changxin Technology saw a trading volume of 130 billion yuan after listing. Korean retail investors are frantically shorting, while Chinese and American funds are bullish. What does this indicate? It means a global bull-short battle is happening in the storage sector. It's not a valuation game, but an industry-level re-pricing. And guess what? Bernstein even raised Naver's target price by 58% today, saying the AI factory strategy has given the market huge confidence. Korea's AI industry chain, from storage to search to chips, is being repriced. So my judgment is this The performance realization in the AI hardware sector is just beginning. Storage is the first wave, chips the second, and the entire industry chain will benefit. Also, let's take a look at what everyone has been discussing recently: #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables. Changxin traded 130 billion yuan on its first day, with a turnover of 61%, ranking 31st globally in assets. China, South Korea, and the US funds are bullish and short, with completely different directions. This split itself is the best way to prove who's right and who's wrong My mindset collapsed, truly collapsed, completely collapsed Not because of losses But because I can no longer understand this world This afternoon, Iran said it had not resumed negotiations and the mediator merely serves as a passage And the Strait of Hormuz remains closed Oil prices fell by 2% and then rebounded The news changes three times a day I'm really tired Family, do you feel this way? It's just that he clearly didn't do anything But just staring at the news is exhausting In the morning, they said negotiations were hopeful They said in the afternoon that it hadn't recovered I don't even know who to trust Then guess what What about BTC? BTC remains unmoved at 65K It just doesn't move It is not affected by fluctuations in oil prices Unaffected by geopolitical factors Like someone who has eaten a weight You say geopolitical risks are high, right? BTC is not falling You say geopolitical risks have been resolved, right? It doesn't swell It's right there 65K Steady as an old dog At times like this, I actually feel reassured This indicates that BTC has moved beyond the panic selling phase seen three years ago It has become a true safe-haven asset It's not that it won't fall It won't collapse because of a single piece of news So my judgment is Geopolitical issues remain unresolved in the short term But the underlying logic of BTC has changed Rather than worrying, it's better to focus on fundamentals There are a few other hot topics worth discussing today: #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 The highlight of this week is undoubtedly the Fed's first meeting after the Fed rate decision on non-farm payrolls. The market generally holds steady expectations. The key question is Powell's view on inflation and employment. If the wording is dovish, BTC has a chance to break through to the previous high area, with bulls and bears waiting in one direction #美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower Oil prices have fallen, but Hormuz hasn't made contact. Iran also said there are no negotiations. This pause feels more like a tactical adjustment than a strategic shift. For the crypto market, geopolitics is no longer the core variable; ETF capital flows are the real dominant force. Now, looking at fundamentals is more reliable than watching news #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 The new CLARITY draft was just released with moral clauses and was met with cold water, but this draft itself is a huge step forward. Regulation has shifted from whether it exists to be good or not, and the direction is right. It's just a matter of time. Slowing down is better than going astray #地缘 #美联储 #CLARITY #特朗普将决定是否扩大对伊战事 Things just got significantly more tense. Senior U.S. officials say President Trump could decide within the next few days whether to expand military operations against Iran. If that happens, reports suggest the next phase could be far larger than the previous strikes, potentially reaching areas that have not yet been directly targeted. Iran is showing no signs of backing down either. Officials are describing the situation as a full-scale conflict, while regional tensions continue to escalate, including threats involving U.S. military assets and key shipping routes. The market reacted exactly where you’d expect: oil. Brent crude briefly climbed above $91, reinforcing the chain reaction traders have been watching: Higher oil → stronger inflation expectations → reduced hopes for Fed easing → pressure on risk assets. What surprises me is that BTC is still holding around $65K. That tells me many traders are still betting that this conflict won’t escalate into a much broader regional war. But if tensions rise further, volatility could return quickly across crypto, equities, and commodities. At that point, headlines—not technical charts—could become the biggest driver of price action. For now, I’d rather react than predict. Geopolitical situations can change within minutes, and when uncertainty spikes, markets can move far more aggressively than anyone expects. I’m keeping my positions light until the picture becomes clearer. $BTC $ETH $QQQ $CL #CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch

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