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$SPCX
Before Thirteen Flights, I advised brothers doing short-term flights not to gamble on flight test results
The core reason is that SpaceX's stock price is currently very affected by company-level news; the main factor is simply the unlocking expectation, which is traders' fear of a large upcoming supply of shares, combined with various major market capital flows
Of course, I'm not encouraging friends to short here; on the contrary, my current view is that the unlocking shock in recent months is a rare opportunity to build positions in batches【The market is waiting for the interest rate meeting, but sentiment does not look friendly】
Bitcoin has been stuck around the $65,000 mark for a long time but ultimately chose to retreat. What can be confirmed now is that $66,000 is not an easy level to hold. $BTC
Current trading volume has shrunk by nearly half compared to the rebound peak, and the market has entered a wait-and-see mode, with all attention focused on the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting early Thursday morning.
The background of this rally is essentially a sentiment recovery rather than a trend reversal. Last week, the temporary ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict and the rapid drop in crude oil prices temporarily eased the geopolitical crisis suppressing risk assets, allowing Bitcoin to rebound from a low level.
The foundation of the rebound is not solid. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw continuous net inflows in the first three days last week, but a large single-day outflow of $240 million in the latter half of the week almost wiped out the entire week's inflows.
What truly determines the market direction is the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Due to the previous surge in oil prices, market expectations for a rate hike have significantly increased again.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows about a 70% probability that the rate will remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, and about a 30% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
Although the baseline expectation is still to hold steady, the post-meeting policy guidance, especially comments from Chair Powell, will have a greater market impact.
Despite June CPI falling to 3.5% and core inflation dropping to 2.6%, the recent rebound in energy prices poses a secondary upside risk to inflation. The June dot plot already showed that more than half of officials expect room for rate hikes within the year.
New Chair Powell is consistently data-driven with limited forward guidance, which further increases uncertainty around this press conference.
If he emphasizes the persistence of energy supply shocks and hints at a higher probability of a September rate hike, then even if rates remain unchanged, US Treasury yields and the dollar will strengthen again.
Less than 24 hours after the decision, Q2 GDP and core PCE data will be released Thursday night, potentially creating a double negative macro impact.
$62,500 is the trend support line since the July rebound. If this level is effectively broken, the rebound structure that started at the beginning of the month will be destroyed, and the market will return to a weak range, with the next key psychological support at $60,000 to be tested.
This year, the market has successfully defended the $60,000 level multiple times, forming a relatively solid bottom. But if this level fails, the June low will come back into view, and this rebound will be completely regarded as a false bottom in a downtrend.
Position changes in the options market also confirm the market's cautious sentiment. The short-term put/call ratio has dropped from 0.76 at the end of June to 0.52, indicating traders have reduced recent downside protection positions, but the 3-6 month long-term skew remains above 11%.
This means the market does not expect a sharp drop in the short term but has not dismissed medium- to long-term risk concerns, as no one is confident this rebound marks the start of a trend reversal.
Currently, the Middle East issue is not something that can be resolved quickly, so the market will need solid macro support and capital backing going forward.
Before the Fed decision lands, the market will likely maintain wide-range volatility, with a clear directional choice possibly emerging Wednesday night. But judging from the market itself, it seems the market has already made a choice in advance, which is what needs to be watched carefully.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 SK Hynix's ADR fell below its issue price and hit a new listing low, clearly signaling the retreat of the semiconductor sector's high-valuation narrative. This memory chip giant raised a record $26.5 billion earlier this month and went public on the US stock market, receiving over seven times oversubscription at issuance. At opening, it rose 14% above the issue price, with the market betting on its HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) as a core component of AI computing power demand. However, just over two weeks after listing, the stock price fell from its peak and fell below its issue price, synchronizing with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's lowest level since May.
The key detail is that, along with SpaceX and others, it was among the first companies to fall below issue price in this year's largest IPO in the U.S. stock market. This points to a broader shift: even top-sized IPOs supported by scarcity, long-term capital, and thematic narratives have not been spared from sector rotation and capital withdrawals from high-valuation tech stocks. Previously, analysts' short-term valuation premiums had been quickly corrected by the market. $SKHYNIX Arthur Hayes secretly bought 3,298 $ETH ($6.4M), accumulating 7,212 ETH since 7/15.
Even better, Bitmine—a miner of a $BTC-listed company—just received 7,500 ETH from BitGo this week to be deposited into the treasury.
Even BTC miners are selling BTC for ETH, not because they heard the Coinbase boss talk about AI agent payments.
The market is still flooding with "ETH is dead," fearful and greedy just released 28. The more fearful F&G is, the more aggressively the treasury is exchanging ETH.
But Binance's ETH long-short ratio is 2.18, and leveraged bulls are still chasing—everyone is shouting ETH is dead, while their hands keep adding positions.
The real reverse positions aren't on retail investors' Twitter, but in the OTC ledger of BitMEX founders and the balance sheets of listed mining companies.This morning's game was a bit of a slap in the face. Yesterday, the US and Iran paused their mutual fighting, causing oil prices to fall sharply, with BTC once reaching $65,750. Many people just felt their risk appetite was returning, but upon waking, they saw the price crash back to around 63,000. As of 09:42 Beijing time on July 28, BTC was priced at $63,216, down 2.91% in 24 hours; ETH fell 3.50%, while SOL, XRP, and DOGE all fell around 4%. Yesterday's rebound was basically eaten up by overnight selling. The reason is not hard to understand. The Federal Reserve will meet on July 28-29, with interest rate results expected to be released early Thursday morning Beijing time. Currently, funds are reluctant to bet on direction in advance, and the emotional warmup brought by the ceasefire news only lasted half a day. Federal Reserve meeting schedule, market reaction yesterday $BTC:63,000 has already reached the threshold. BTC spot price is around $63,216, with an intraday low of $63,055.8. After breaking below 64,500 last night, the 4-hour moving average has been continuously downward, indicating that the rebound above 65,000 has not formed effective support. Today, let's first see if 63,000 can hold. If it falls below here, there hasn't been a clear sideways support in the past week, so the market is likely to continue testing downward. Don't rush to get excited about the rebound. The price should first return above 63,750 to catch a breather; 64,500 to 65,000 is the next level of resistance. If it truly recovers above 65,750, only after yesterday's rally and pullback will it count as a recovery. $ETH: It was quite resistant to declines a few days ago, and today it starts againSK海力士单日暴跌30%的极端波动，是韩国股市作为全球AI情绪放大器功能失效的缩影。此前，韩国市场凭借三星、SK海力士等存储巨头的高权重，已成为观测全球AI资本流动的风向标，其指数与纳斯达克联动性显著增强。就在一周前，日韩芯片股还因AI热潮而暴涨并触发熔断。
然而，当前抛售的核心并非基本面恶化，而是市场对英伟达信用风险的担忧。这暴露了当前AI繁荣的脆弱性：即使有韩国政府近万亿韩元的投资计划和企业数千亿美元的大额订单（如SK集团与英伟达的7500亿美元协议）作为支撑，产业链顶端的单一巨头（英伟达）的信用波动，仍能瞬间穿透整个供应链的估值。投资者正在用脚投票，重新定价AI基础设施扩张所伴随的债务与信用风险。$SKHYNIX 📊 $DOGE Real-time On-Chain Analysis (Price Updates) - 2026.7.28
1. Overview of the Board
DOGE/USDT is currently quoted at $0.06962, having broken below the previously repeatedly emphasized psychological level of 0.07. The intraday trading range has narrowed sharply to 0.0683-0.0699, with ATR nearly zeroing. The price has dropped more than 90% from the 2021 all-time high of 0.7316, near the lowest level since September 2024.
The MACD histogram is flattening above the zero line, with the signal line hovering near -0.0022. RSI is around 32.93, close to oversold but not truly entering yet. All daily moving averages (50-day 0.08, 200-day 0.10) are above the price, forming a complete bearish overlay.
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2. Key Support and Resistance Levels (based on updated 0.06962)
🟢 Support Level (from near to far):
0.0683-0.0684 (current intraday low; if broken, the decline will accelerate) → 0.065-0.066 (target zone after breaking below 0.0698) → 0.060-0.062 (liquidation zone after daily chart closes below 0.069) → 0.056 (key support provided by the TD indicator)
🔴 Pressure level (from near to far):
0.0700-0.0710 (short-term bullish signal after breakout) → 0.0715-0.0725 (first target after breaking 0.07) → 0.074-0.0755 (lower edge of the bear liquidation zone + downtrend line) → 0.0785-0.081 (200 MA + concentrated short liquidation zone)
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3. On-chain market player movements
🐳 Whales continue to accumulate shares, but the signals are contradictory
Addresses holding more than 100 million DOGE hold a total of 108.52 billion DOGE, with their holdings still growing. Major players bought about 200 million $DOGE (about $14 million) around 0.07 through Robinhood. Over the past 30 days, whales have net increased by about 3.5 billion DOGE (about $700 million).
But at the same time, on-chain data shows whales have sold over 1 billion DOGE in the past week. Whale activity shows a two-way divergence—some are accumulating, some are selling.
📉 ETF funds are nearly exhausted
The spot DOGE ETF recorded no new inflows for a month from June 17 to July 17, with a net outflow of $871,000 in July. As of July 17, cumulative net inflows were only about $11.77–$12.44 million. On July 24, net inflows returned to zero. Although reports on July 27 recorded a small net inflow of $345,000, the scale was negligible.
🏦 Derivatives signals are highly dangerous
Top traders (smart money) have a long ratio as high as 75.1% (long-short ratio 3.0), and retail long positions also reach 70.8%. But the taker buy/sell ratio is only 0.822—every $1 actively bought corresponds to $1.22 actively sold. The direction of holding positions diverges sharply from the immediate order flow, which is a typical pre-squeeze signal. The funding rate of -0.0013% is slightly negative and not enough to trigger a short squeeze.
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4. Positive factors
✅ Hourly Golden Cross Formation: DOGE formed a short-term golden cross at the hourly level (50 MA crossing the 200 MA), signaling a short-term rebound.
✅ TD Buy Signal Resonance: The TD Sequential indicator flashes buy signals simultaneously on the monthly, weekly, three-day, and daily charts. Analysts point out that such multi-cycle alignments are extremely rare.
✅ Whales accumulate at the bottom: net increase of 3.5 billion DOGE over 30 days, with some whales still accumulating.
✅ Clear regulatory positioning: In March, the joint framework between the SEC and CFTC classified DOGE as a digital commodity. T.Rowe Price (managing $1.8 trillion) included DOGE (1.28% weighting) in the new ETF, providing a degree of Wall Street recognition.
✅ Trading volume fluctuations: $DOGE The only one among the Top 20 to see a significant 24-hour increase in trading volume, once soaring 90% to $1.5 billion.
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5. Bearish factors
❌ 0.07 psychological level breached: The price has fallen below the key round number. If the daily chart closes below 0.069, the short-term bullish structure will completely fail.
❌ Moving averages are generally bearish: prices are below all major moving averages, with the daily descending triangle continuing to suppress them.
❌ ETF funds are drying up: institutional demand is almost zero, and the inclusion of T.Rowe Price failed to spark any substantial buying.
❌ Crowded bulls + active selling pressure: 75% of smart money goes long but Takers have the upper hand selling — this is a typical bull trap signal.
❌ Thin liquidity: Binance's spot trading volume is only $31.6 million, and any breakout in any direction would be greatly amplified.
❌ Macroeconomic Uncertainty: With the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaching on July 30, risk assets are generally under pressure.
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VI. Comprehensive Analysis (Based on Update 0.06962)
The current price of 0.06962 has broken below the previously emphasized 0.07 life-and-death line. If the 4H level closes below 0.0698, it will activate the downside target at 0.0660. A further break below 0.0684 will point to 0.065.
The bulls' only hope: RSI near oversold (32.93) + Bollinger Band lower band squeeze + TD multi-cycle buy signal resonance, which may trigger a countertrend rebound. However, the rebound requires volume to rise and reach 0.070-0.071 to confirm the short-term bottom.
Conclusion: 0.06962 is on the verge of the last bullish line being broken. If the 4H closes holding the 0.0683-0.0698 area, there is still a chance to organize a rebound to 0.071-0.072; if it falls, it will open up downside space between 0.065 and 0.060. The contradiction between whale accumulation and ETF exhaustion, crowded bulls versus active selling pressure means that the current phase is more likely to be a bottoming phase with an unclear bottom, rather than the starting point of a trend reversal. It is recommended to wait for confirmation signals from increased volume and avoid blindly entering when the direction is unclear. #长鑫科技上市, Global Storage Competition Adds Variables #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon Hold Down the AI Narrative? BTC spot ETFs had seen large net outflows for two consecutive full trading days, and prices fell back into key areas. However, the market has not experienced continuous runaway declines, which indicates that ETF funds are not the sole force determining BTC's short-term trend. 1. ETF outflows indicate institutional caution and do not equate to a full withdrawal. On July 23 and 24, BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $225 million and $240 million, respectively. Continuous outflows indicate that some institutions are actively reducing their risk exposure, but this is closer to position adjustment rather than a complete reversal of long-term allocation logic. Especially as the Federal Reserve policy meeting approaches, it is common for institutions to reduce their positions in highly volatile assets in advance. 2. Latest data is not yet complete, so the market should not over-interpret The latest ETF data as of July 27 is still in the process of being disclosed, with only some product data updates so far. Based solely on temporary small net outflows, it is impossible to determine whether institutional funds have recovered or continued to withdraw. What truly matters as a reference is the final complete data, as well as the direction of funds for several consecutive trading days after the meeting. 3. The price has not lost control, indicating that passive underwriting remains below After ETF outflows, although BTC pulled back, there was no continuous waterfall decline. This means there are still long-term holders, passive allocators, and buying on dips in the market. These funds can slow the pace of decline, but to push prices back upward, stronger active spot buying is still needed. 4. On-chain structure is stable, but broad demand is still insufficient Glassno$OKB The circulating market is actually controllable, so prices naturally resist declines.
Why can this position structure stabilize prices?
1. Selling pressure is effectively restricted
When most large chips are concentrated within the system and remain "inactive" for a long time, when the market suddenly drops, the real amount of chips available is limited. With the supply-demand imbalance eased, price fluctuations naturally narrowed.
2. Deeply tied to the ecosystem, rather than purely speculative chips
OKB is no longer just an "exchange platform token." It connects OKX intra-platform trading, the OKX Wallet entry, and the X Layer on-chain infrastructure. As real-world applications such as prediction markets, DEXs, and high-frequency interactions are implemented on X Layer, OKB's holdings are more about ecosystem usage and long-term value expectations rather than short-term speculation.
3. Fixed supply reinforces the scarcity logic
After previous large-scale burning, the total supply of OKB is permanently locked at 21 million tokens. With limited circulating inventory and stable large holdings, any buying from ecosystem growth is more likely to support the price.
From "platform token" to "ecological value symbol"
Simply put, OKB's ability to hold the price against the market is not due to random sentiment support, but rather the result of its position structure:
> OKX provides users, assets, and liquidity;
> OKX Wallet provides a Web3 entry point;
> X Layer undertakes on-chain transactions and applications;
> OKB has become a long-term value symbol connecting all of this.
When large tokens are mainly concentrated within the system, with limited external speculative selling pressure and ongoing real ecosystem demand,The linkage between US stocks and BTC is not simply about following rises and falls; it is a three-layer logic nested together. In practice, focus on micro-strategy ETFs, which basically synchronize with BTC's movement!
The first layer is the anticipation window caused by time displacement.
The U.S. stock trading session runs from early morning to early trading on BTC, and the post-market close's performance directly determines the sentiment tone for BTC the next day. The Nasdaq fell 1.5%, the semiconductor index dropped 4%, and the next day, both Korean stocks and BTC are likely to be under simultaneous pressure. This is not speculation, but real capital flow. The 4% drop in Korean stocks on July 20 was because the US semiconductor market crashed last Friday and the market was closed, but the next day it was recovered all at once.
In practice, I would draw a line after the US market closes: the Nasdaq will fall over 1%, BTC will likely open lower during the Asian session, and I will wait for the dip to stabilize before acting. If tech stocks undergo a V-shaped reversal before the US market closes, BTC's high opening the next day is basically guaranteed, so you can place your order early.
The second layer: capital flow is not a straight line, but there are traces.
The linkage between US stocks and BTC mainly occurs through two channels. The first pipeline is macro pricing: US stocks fall, risk appetite declines, and BTC is being drained of liquidity. The second pipeline is institutional allocation. Tech and crypto funds in US stocks are pooled together. When US stocks fall, margin needs to be replenished, and BTC is sold first to cash out.
Interestingly, on July 17, storage stocks collectively crashed, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 4.3% in a single day, while BTC did not fall much in response. This indicates that the linkage is loosening, and the crypto market is shifting from a shadow of tech stocks to an independent pricing entity. In practice, observe whether BTC is falling less than tech stocks; if a divergence occurs, it is often a short-term signal of a bottom.
The third layer is that emotional transmission is faster than capital transmission but easier to deceive.
Pre-market U.S. market data, leading stock earnings reports, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials are all transmitted to BTC through the futures market before the U.S. market opens. After the CPI data was released on July 15, Nasdaq futures surged sharply, and BTC jumped from 64,000 to 66,000, reacting almost simultaneously. But emotional transmission comes and goes quickly, making false breakthroughs easy to occur.
Practical strategies: Pay attention to pre-market US stock futures. When Nasdaq 100 futures move more than 0.5%, BTC usually moves in the same direction. Do not place orders early around the time of major economic data releases; wait until the U.S. stock futures direction is confirmed before making moves. If US stocks surge but BTC's gains lag significantly, it indicates that a short-term divergence is forming and signals a reversal trade. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard $ETH $BTC $DOGE 大家可以看到4小时磐面，心里先别慌。虽然大饼刚刚经历了一波放量急跌，一路下探到了63021的低位，但在我看来这更像是前期获俐磐集中了结时的情绪宣泄，空头那股猛烈的劲儿其实已经释放得差不多了，并没有形成那种让人害怕的单边下跌趋势。前期63000一线的核心支撑位已经开始有买磐在悄悄承接了。而且从K线结构来看，现在离下方62505的前期底部也就只差那么一点点空间，继续往下掉的余地真的不多了，很容易就会吸引到聪明的抄底资金进来，开启一波技术性的修复反弹。
至于成交量，暴跌放量之后，后续大概率会慢慢萎缩，这就说明空头的力量正在慢慢衰竭，多空的力量马上就要迎来反转了。接下来的行情，多半会偏向于止跌筑底。慢慢震荡回升。所以我们不妨保持一份从容的心态，依托着当前的低位支撑，分批慢慢地去布局多单，耐心等一等这波超跌后的回弹修复。
$ETH $BTC $SOL #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The Federal Reserve's July rate decision is imminent, and the market's real concern is not about a rate cut.
Recently, market sentiment has clearly shifted.
My judgment is: the biggest impact of this FOMC meeting is not whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates immediately, but the market's repricing of the future interest rate path. The market has already priced in easing expectations in advance, but Warsh's hawkish stance may delay the timing of rate cuts, so short-term risk assets still face pressure.
The Federal Reserve's July rate meeting officially begins.
The market generally expects the current rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% to remain unchanged at this meeting.
Since there is no economic forecast summary this time, the market's focus will be on Chairman Warsh's speech and his statements on inflation, employment, and future policy direction.
Why is this meeting important?
Because in recent months, the market has been trading on a logic:
Inflation declines, the Federal Reserve turns to easing, and funds flow back into risk assets.
But this logic is now being challenged.
If the Federal Reserve believes inflationary pressures still exist and the pace of rate cuts is slower than the market expects, the impact will affect not only U.S. stocks but also the crypto market.
The higher the interest rate, the higher the cost of capital.
For tech stocks and risk assets like BTC, valuations will be suppressed.
This is also why the AI sector, semiconductors, and crypto markets have recently experienced volatility.
The market is not denying the long-term value of AI or BTC but is reassessing:
How long will future capital costs remain?
Have asset valuations already priced in rate cut expectations in advance?
Historically, Federal Reserve policy shifts often affect global asset allocation.
During the rapid rate hike phase in 2022, the Nasdaq and crypto markets saw significant adjustments.
When the market confirmed the start of a rate cut cycle, improved liquidity pushed risk assets back up.
So now, the market's real focus is not on the outcome of a single meeting but on the policy direction.
Next, pay close attention to three signals:
First, Warsh's attitude toward inflation.
If he continues to emphasize inflation risks, rate cut expectations may be further delayed.
Second, changes in the employment market.
If employment data cools rapidly, the Federal Reserve's policy space may increase.
Third, market capital reactions.
If the dollar strengthens and U.S. Treasury yields rise, risk assets may still face short-term pressure.
My view:
The market is still in a phase of policy expectation competition.
In the short term, the Federal Reserve maintaining high rates will limit the upside for risk assets.
But if inflation continues to improve later and the rate cut cycle eventually begins, improved liquidity conditions could still become a new catalyst for the market.
Investors should now focus more on the capital logic behind policy changes rather than just a single rate decision.
Because what truly affects the market is never the interest rate number itself but where the capital is moving.I made a little profit from this BTC wave, but the process was harder than the result.
I took long orders around $63,500, and when it hit $66,000, I cut it in half. Originally planning to wait for $70,000, but seeing that volume couldn't keep up, the remaining positions were left at break-even as well. The facts prove that in a volatile market, taking the money is more important than forecasting.
Currently, ETF funds are flowing back again, indicating institutional buying is still present, but the gap left by previous large outflows has not been fully repaired. My plan is: hold $63,000 and remain bullish; if it falls below $60,000, look for around $60,000; only if volume increases and the price holds steady between $66,000 and $67,000 will I consider going long again.
Now, I won't use high leverage in the middle of the range, because the most common outcome isn't misdirection, but sweeping both long and short positions once. Recently, when trading BTC, did you earn profits by holding onto the profits or by running fast?
#BTC #Bitcoin #合约交易
This does not constitute investment advice.🚨 BTC's breakout yesterday may have been just a "fake move"! Before 23:00 tonight, 65,000 is a critical life-or-death line.
Yesterday, BTC seemed to have broken out, but looking back now, it seems more like a fake breakout.
If BTC still fails to regain 65,000 before 23:00 tonight, market sentiment may worsen further, and panic selling for both BTC and ETH cannot be ruled out.
The most crucial points are:
Yesterday's support has now turned into resistance above.
📌 BTC rebound resistance: 64,688
📌 Regaining Foothold: Only at 65,000 → will there be a chance to open up greater upside potential
If BTC weakens again:
🔻 First support: 63,388
🔻 After breaking below the previous level: 62,088
🔻 Extreme pullback: 59,388 → Focus on potential bottom-fishing opportunities
ETH also needs caution:
🔻 Support: 1,858 / 1,818
🔻 Extreme support: 1,738
🔺 Rebound resistance: 1,928
Right now, the most important thing isn't to predict a rise or a fall, but to focus on key positions and see which path the market will choose.
Additionally, SNDK is currently at 1,088, not yet at the buy level I was interested in; SPCX hasn't reached 88U yet.
If the market remains panicked ahead of the Fed's rate decision, volatility could intensify further.
Tonight at 23:00, whether 65,000 can hold above may be the key to the next rally. 👀
#BTC #ETH #SNDK
#DailyOrbit 绿色不等于流动性：加密市场正在发生一次有选择性的资金再定位
市场参与者是否高估了本轮上涨的可持续性？
当前价格结构呈现出典型的"缩量分化"特征。BTC 与 ETH 持续吸引机构资金，SOL 维持 Layer 1 高 Beta 交易热度，但大部分山寨币的流动性参与度并未同步扩张。从已计价部分看，市场已经接受了比特币作为核心流动性磁石的角色，ETH 的组织资本流入也已被部分消化。尚未定价的关键变量是：在开仓兴趣降温、成交量却维持稳定的组合下，资金究竟是在选择性地布局，还是在等待更确定的宏观信号。
衍生品定位提供了重要线索。资金费率与基差的走平，说明杠杆多头并未大规模建立仓位，这意味着当前涨幅缺乏典型的追高挤压路径。偏多路径成立的条件是：BTC 能守住关键支撑位，带动 ETH 与 SOL 的基差重新扩张，进而吸引杠杆资金入场，形成自发性空头挤压。偏空风险则在于：如果成交量持续萎缩，而开仓兴趣进一步下滑，市场可能从"选择性上涨"切换为"流动性枯竭式回调"，尤其是那些被排除在资金轮动之外的代币将承受最大抛压。
从价格结构与承接角度看，当下最清晰的信号是：上涨并不均匀，且杠杆参与度偏低。这既为后续行情保留了空间，也意味着破位风险远未消除。结论是：市场在定价"结构性向好"而非"全面牛市"，因此对山寨币需等待流动性确认后再做承诺。
不要混淆绿色蜡烛与趋势确认。
$BTC $ETH $SOL#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？
微软的叙事基础最扎实——三层变现体系和商业合同积压提供了最大的"叙事空间"，但算力分配的两难抉择是短期最大变数。
亚马逊的叙事正处于"临界点"——AWS增速若能持续30%以上，巨额投入就能被重新定义为"投资而非消耗"；
若增速不及预期，本就紧绷的现金流将快速承压。
Meta的叙事最危险——没有云业务作为"安全垫"，扎克伯格本人已承认AI代理进展不及预期，营业利润率持续下滑。
若本次财报无法证明AI显著拉动广告收入，Meta将面临最严峻的叙事崩塌风险。
三家公司能否稳住AI叙事，答案不在财报的营收数字本身，
而在于市场是否相信——这些"世界上最聪明的一批人算出来的账"，最终能兑现。$ETH $##英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 $XMETA 🚨 $CORE Will it surge to 5U–15U in the next six months? Don't rush to dream just yet; you might wake up after doing some calculations.
Someone online is shouting that $CORE could rise to $5–$15 in the next six months.
It sounds exciting, but if you put market value, circulating assets, unlocking pressure, and real capital needs all on the table, how realistic is this goal?
Let's calmly calculate it.
First, the market value logic is already extremely exaggerated.
Based on approximately 1.245 billion coins in circulation:
$5 = approximately $6.2 billion in circulating market capitalization
$15 = approximately $18.6 billion in circulating market capitalization
This means $CORE needs to attract massive new capital in just half a year.
The question is:
Why should funds choose $CORE instead of other BTCFi or highly liquid assets?
This is the real question that needs to be answered.
Second, unlocking and potential selling pressure cannot be ignored.
If a large number of tokens continue to enter circulation in the coming months, the market will need stronger buying to absorb the new supply.
Rallies have never been based solely on "whether anyone is calling for a long run," but rather on watching:
New buy > new sell order.
Otherwise, every rebound could become a cash-out window for early holders and unlocking their tokens.
Third, ecosystem and real income determine the valuation ceiling.
If a project wants to support a valuation of billions or even tens of billions of dollars, it ultimately needs real users, products, revenue, and sustained growth.
Stories can bring short-term emotions.
But long-term market value ultimately depends on fundamentals to deliver on them.
Fourth, the historical trapped market is also a real issue.
When an asset has fallen more than 99% from its historical high, there are often many deeply trapped chips in the market.
The higher the price, the more likely it is to encounter:
"Finally broke even, let's sell a little first."
This means that to break through historical highs, not only new capital is needed, but also the ongoing absorption of accumulated selling pressure from the past.
Fifth, the real key is funding.
Whether a coin can go from a few cents to a few dollars, or even a dozen dollars, is essentially not about how loudly the KOL shouts, but about looking:
💰 Is there ongoing external capital inflow?
📈 Is there real user growth?
🔥 Is there strong market demand?
🏦 Is there institutional-level fund recognition?
🚀 Is there strong enough fundamental support for the valuation?
If these questions remain unanswered, then the $5–$15 target is more of an emotional narrative than a price prediction based on real-world data.
Of course, the crypto market is always subject to extreme market conditions.
If BTC enters a super bull market, the project ecosystem truly explodes, products are launched on a large scale, and institutional funds continue to flow in, any asset could be repriced.
But the problem is:
These conditions must happen simultaneously.
So, rather than asking:
"Can $CORE raise it to $15?"
Let's ask:
"How much real capital and real fundamentals are needed to support $CORE reaching $5–$15?"
This is the question investors should truly be considering.
⚠️ Risk warning: Virtual currency prices are highly volatile, and related markets are regulated differently across different jurisdictions. The above content is for market logic analysis only and does not constitute any investment, trading, or bottom-fishing advice. Specific allegations involving project team unlocks, fund flows, market making, and operations should be based on official disclosures and verifiable on-chain data.
#CORE #BTCFi #Crypto
#DailyOrbit Last night, all US tech stocks collapsed, with Japanese and Korean tech sectors crashing across the board following US stocks at the open, according to a leaked report on the progress of China's lithography machines by The Information. As soon as news broke about DUV lithography machines, Asmael's monopoly expectations collapsed first: NAND only uses DUV, DRAM requires EUV, NAND's SanDisk led the decline, and with SanDisk recently signing LTAs everywhere, fast-forwarding to the entire US semiconductor supply chain is about to collapse China's version of DUV lithography machines. If small-scale mass production of DUV lithography machines is real, then for overseas chip giants, it would be necessary to correct past monopolistic premiums, and for China's semiconductor industry, it would be a reassessment of the certainty of supply in China's semiconductor supply chain. This still benefits domestic semiconductor equipment, materials, packaging, foundry chains, and other sectors. However, the current capital market is swept up by sentiment. Under these conditions, today's chip and AI computing power will fluctuate significantly. If the semiconductor supply chain experiences huge fluctuations or even sharp declines, I believe it would be another opportunity to fish in troubled waters and reverse the market. #ChangxinTechnologyListing, Global Storage Competition Adds Variables $SNDK Two fun facts:
(1) Since crypto exchanges embraced US stocks, popular stocks have generally fallen by 50%+
(2) The timing of large-scale entry into US stocks by native crypto players is precisely at the summit7.28 A Ten Million Hours Morning Walk Reflection
When Bitcoin surged to the 66,928 high, I made it clear in advance that there was heavy pressure at the top, and the bulls' momentum had long been exhausted. Afterwards, there would only be concentrated selling pressure, and sure enough, a sharp pullback was a direct fulfillment of my prediction.
Many people still fantasize about continuing to push higher and add positions, unable to see the hidden traps in the market. Blindly chasing gains only leads to passive traps. At this stage, all minor rebounds are just brief breaths during the decline, not reversal signals. You must suppress bottom-fishing thoughts; counter-trend trading will only lead to repeated pitfalls.
The core range of the big pie
Key pressure bands above: 64,500, 65,300
Support levels below are at 63,560 and 63,000
Practical approach:
The price rebounded to the resistance range of 64,300-64,600,
When stagflation signals appear, immediately follow the trend to position shorts,
Risk control points are set above 65,300,
The first round is downside at 63,600;
Once support is broken, the downside will fully open up, and the market will naturally look toward the 63,000 level.
Only when the 63,000 level pulls back and shows clear signs of stabilization and support can small positions be used for short-term rebounds; during other periods, do not actively go long.
Concubine
The trend is highly synchronized with Bitcoin. After surging to the 1982 high earlier, it lost momentum and gradually shifted downward, allowing bearish influence to fully regain control. The overall rhythm closely followed the market's weak movement.
Key pressure zones above: 1920, 1960
Support levels below are at 1860 and 1840
Practical approach:
If the rebound touches the 1910-1930 resistance range, you can position a short position,
Risk control is set above 1960,
The first take-profit target is 1860,
Break below the 1840 level;
Only after holding support at the 1840 level and seeing signs of stopping the decline can you consider taking a light position and going long. In a weak market, patience is always more valuable than impulsiveness.
The market never lacks temporary small rebounds; what it lacks is the insight to see through trends in advance, fully disclosing price levels and rhythm in advance. Whether you can seize the dividends depends entirely on your execution.
#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon hold the AI narrative? #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables
Next week (July 28-8.1) will be too crowded—tech giants' earnings reports, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and geopolitical conflicts—three major bombs all packed together in the same week.
Timeline: On Wednesday, SK Hynix + Federal Reserve decision, followed by Microsoft and Meta after the close. Thursday's GDP + PCE data, with Amazon and Apple as the finale in the evening. Every day, news that could change the whole situation could pop up.
AI fundamentals are solid; SK and NVIDIA have finalized cooperation worth over 500 billion yuan, with demand exceeding expectations. But the good news was suppressed by macro factors—interest rate hikes, tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and capital dared not move. Is the market worried that capital expenditure will peak over? I think it's far-fetched. The AI race is far from over; whoever stops first will be eliminated.
The two biggest concerns for macroeconomics: the probability of a rate hike was 13% a week ago, but now it has soared to 39%. As soon as the Middle East sounds, oil prices jump and inflation follows.
Optical modules have been halved, expectations are rock low, and as long as demand remains, there is a reason for repairs.
Finally: The probability of financial reports themselves being bankrupt is low, but any minor macro movement can be magnified. Don't reverse the order—first look at macro weather, then look at the fundamentals umbrella. The Ethereum Foundation’s silence on issuance is getting dangerous 🔥
Let’s cut through it: cutting issuance won’t pump ETH tomorrow. But pretending the problem isn’t there is a long-term mistake. ETH can’t be both "sound money" and a "productive asset" without a clear policy.
For the "money" camp: staking incentives are too strong. We’re heading toward a world where almost all ETH lives in LSTs. Higher staking → higher inflation → more people forced to stake to not fall behind. That’s a liquidity trap eating ETH’s monetary premium.
For the "productive asset" camp: ∼3,000 ETH/day is being issued and it’s rising. Burn needs 30x–100x more activity just to break even, and that’s before gas limit hikes + higher staking. We’re fighting our own tokenomics.
This isn’t about the next 1 week candle. It’s about ETH’s core thesis.
More silence = narrative shifts from "ultra-sound money" to "ultra-inflated staking farm."
Action > silence. 💎
$ETH #DailyOrbit @OKX Orbit
#CXMTMemoryIPO $SNDK 闪迪公开市场两小时快速下挫，最大跌幅逼近14%；更关键信号：暗盘持续承压走低。 暗盘代表机构大额场外成交，持续下跌意味着大型资金没有抄底，仍在有序离场，恐慌并非散户情绪化砸盘，是机构主动调仓兑现。 同步板块：美光、SK海力士全线跟跌，存储赛道形成集体抛售潮。 下跌核心逻辑 1. 巨大获利盘集中出逃 本轮AI存储牛市闪迪涨幅巨大，估值充分透支乐观预期。行情一旦拐头，多头形成踩踏，短时间出现无承接跳水。 2. 存储周期预期逆转 市场开始计价：三星、海力士持续扩产NAND闪存，机构担忧2027年闪存产能过剩，涨价周期见顶，毛利率上行空间封闭。 ⚠️重点区分：长鑫主营DRAM内存，理论不直接竞争闪迪NAND业务；闪迪下跌更多属于板块情绪共振杀跌，属于情绪错杀，但资金不会短期区分赛道。 3. AI资本开支预期降温 市场质疑云厂商持续加码算力的回报，预判后续存储采购节奏放缓，直接打压存储需求长期想象空间。 4. 暗盘持续走弱的信号解读 暗盘源源不断出现卖单，代表长线机构共识转向。 ✅正面情景：暗盘大跌、公开市场企稳=机构悄悄吸筹； ❌当前情况：公开市场暴跌+暗盘同步阴跌，属于机Now it's clear that China and the US are locked in a fierce battle
Changxin just went public yesterday. Last night, SK Hynix fell 8.4%, SanDisk dropped 11%, and although Micron eventually rebounded, it also dropped 2%
South Korea just hit circuit breakers again, with SK Hynix down over 9% and Samsung Electronics down over 7%.
Referring to SpaceX, China's offshore rocket launch successfully recovered. SpaceX's stock dropped from a peak of 220 to 113, and this happened after Starship's successful launch
So I can clearly feel this is a battle for national destiny, with one side gaining and the other dominating, and the struggle is extremely fierce right now
The cake was already so big, and suddenly another family showed up, so they started smashing the price.
This kind of cyclical industry is something ordinary people shouldn't get involved in; it's very unstable. #ChangxinTechnology goes public, global storage competition adds variables $SNDK DEATH CROSS ON BITCOIN. THE SCARIEST SIGNAL THAT KEEPS MARKING BOTTOMS.
Every trader sees the cross and panics. But look at 2022: it appeared after the 28.88% drop was already done. The bottom came right after.
Now it's here again at $64,737.
The measured move points to $45K.
History points the other way.
My take: this is late, not early.Babylon's TBV is booming, even collaborating with lending platforms like Aave, but can its TBV really be trustless?
I spent the whole afternoon yesterday and finally understood the technical principles. Honestly:
1. Previously, BTC had a total of 1.4 trillion in assets, basically sitting in wallets gathering dust without any interest. Because the gas is too high, small players can't participate; Because the security is too low, big players dare not participate.
2. Babylon actually takes a different approach, completely replacing the underlying logic: UTXO + Timelock + One-Time Signature (EOTS).
(1) Are you afraid to encapsulate BTC as WBTC for custodians? No worries, if you deposit money into your own wallet on the Bitcoin mainnet, it's controlled by an absolute time lock, and only your own private key can be withdrawn;
(2) Other project teams can only call its PoS chain guarantee feature, and each call earns you $BABY as a staking reward.
(3) Babylon itself does not control these BTC and still keeps them on mainnet: completely eliminating the risk of third-party custody and avoiding contract vulnerabilities on other chains.
3. It essentially transforms the traditional DeFi protocol into a broader DeFi definition: I only use part of the asset's functions to provide security guarantees, and it doesn't matter where the money is stored. Honestly, this approach is very new and currently the most capital-efficient and secure strategy in the market.Storage giants plunged across the board last night: SanDisk down 13%, SK Hynix down 8%, Micron down 6%.
The most impressive performance in history, stock prices crashed fiercely—the price hike story is priced in, first bursting the valuation bubble.
AI circular financing raises concerns + seasonal weakness in August-October + midterm elections; don't jump into the short term.
But for those trading cryptocurrencies:
🚨 Tech stocks are contracting→ BTC/ETH is under short-term pressure
🚨 AI concept coins (RNDR/FET, etc.) are cautious of falling stocks
✅ Major tech earnings reports (Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday), and Capex guidance exceeding expectations is a signal of reversal
HBM's structural logic remains. The story isn't dead, just changed chapters$SNDK SanDisk plummeted, is the storage sector affected by Changxin's IPO?
The collapse is related to the US stock market crash, but not the fundamental cause.
Changxin's IPO is more like a "scapegoat," a "sentiment catalyst."
Personally, I think Thursday's interest rate meeting, along with the recent overall pullback in the US stock market, caused funds to withdraw from semiconductors and other growth stocks. As a cyclical stock, storage stocks took the brunt and the decline was amplified. It's not just the storage sector dragging down the US stock market; the bubble in the Korean market is also cooling off, among other factors. 🚨 The DRAM game just changed.
For decades, the memory market was controlled by three giants:
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
Their playbook was simple:
📈 When demand surged, everyone expanded capacity.
📉 When demand weakened, everyone cut production.
If prices fell too far, one of them would announce lower capital spending, supply would tighten, and the market would stabilize.
This unwritten rule has worked for over 30 years.
Now there's a fourth player.
China's CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) has arrived with massive scale, a multi-trillion-dollar valuation, and billions in fresh capital.
But the real story isn't that China now has its own DRAM champion.
The real story is that the industry's supply discipline may be breaking down.
The old logic was simple: if the big three cut production, nobody else could step in and take meaningful market share.
Now someone can.
CXMT's priority isn't necessarily maximizing margins. It's gaining market share, expanding capacity, and building strategic influence.
And that changes everything.
The memory market may be entering a new era—one where market share matters more than profit margins, and where the old supply-control playbook no longer works as expected.
#Semiconductors #DRAM #AI #Samsung #SKHynix #Micron #CXMT #TechStocks #Investing #OKXOrbitChangxin Memory just listed and flipped the whole storage game 🚨
A-shares have a new king. CXMT debuted on STAR, surged to a 3 trillion yuan market cap — passing ICBC. I tried for the IPO lottery too. Balance too low. Story of my life.
With CXMT in, DRAM is now a 3-way fight: China vs US vs Korea. The SK Hynix / Micron / SanDisk monopoly is cracking. CXMT already grabbed 8% global share, sitting at #4 and climbing.
Fundamentals look wild. H1 2026 revenue + profit up multiples. 25x PE in this tech cycle? Cheap vs the US giants.
But 2 big risks to watch:
1. Ownership chaos: ∼10M people applied, 7M+ retail got shares. No major holders locked in. When it pops, everyone sells into each other.
2. Supply bomb: Only 6.73% float tradable day 1, no limits for 5 days. Hype can send it parabolic, but lock-up expiries are coming fast.
Great company. Not necessarily a blind buy here.
#DailyOrbit @OKX Orbit
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#FOMCRateWatch $BTC $ETH $SNDK Post-Close Analysis on July 28: Complete Follow-up Trend Analysis of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and U.S. Tech Stocks (Just took a dozen cuts and threw up again, but I won't close my position; the drop is a line, and the rise is also a line)
Core Conclusion: Short-term consolidation mainly digests the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, with the crypto market showing weak oscillation and U.S. tech stocks exhibiting extreme structural divergence. The biggest variable in all directions is the Federal Reserve's rate decision in the early hours of July 29.
I. Bitcoin (BTC) Follow-up Trend Judgment
Current Closing Status
Current price is $63,142, down 2.8% intraday. The short-term bullish news from the U.S.-Iran ceasefire over the weekend has been fully realized. Bulls took profits, contracts liquidated (BTC short liquidations of $54 million in a single day), U.S. crypto regulatory pressure increased, spot ETFs shifted from continuous net inflows to slight outflows, and upward momentum has temporarily exhausted.
Short-term (1~3 days) Trend
1. Mainly oscillating to build a bottom, difficult to quickly counterattack
Key support: $62,500~$63,000 (short-term strong support; breaking below leads to testing $61,500);
Short-term resistance: $64,500, $65,000, difficult to break previous highs without major positive news.
2. Core suppressing factors (decisive)
Tonight's Federal Reserve meeting, market consensus expects rates to remain high, with the expectation of rate cuts this year significantly cooled. The high-rate environment continues to suppress valuations of non-yield crypto assets; after geopolitical positives are priced in, a "vacuum period" begins. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire carries risks of reversal, and safe-haven funds may flow back to the dollar and U.S. bonds at any time.
3. Two scenarios:
✅ Bullish scenario: Fed signals dovish tone, hints at rate cuts by year-end, BTC holds above $64,500, returns to $66,000 range consolidation;
❌ Bearish scenario: Fed remains hawkish, keeps possibility of rate hikes this year, BTC breaks $62,500 support, retests the $60,000 round number.
Mid-term (1~2 weeks)
As long as the key $60,000 support holds, the overall pattern is high-level oscillation and consolidation. Institutional spot ETFs have not massively fled; a sharp drop is a buying opportunity. If $60,000 is effectively broken, a mid-term deep correction begins.
II. Ethereum (ETH) Follow-up Trend Judgment
Current Closing Status
Current price is $1,866, down over 4% intraday. A failed surge to $1,980 triggered a bull stampede, with leveraged longs liquidated. Short-term gains are clearly overextended, but on-chain fundamentals show no negative news (staking exit queue cleared, institutional ETH ETFs still have stable funds).
Short-term Trend
1. Core support: $1,850~$1,880 (starting point of this rebound), the dividing line between bulls and bears;
Resistance: $1,950, $2,000.
2. Strength/weakness logic: ETH volatility is greater than BTC; positive news leads to stronger rallies, negative news causes deeper pullbacks.
If the Fed is dovish and risk sentiment improves, ETH's rebound will be stronger than Bitcoin; if macro weakens, ETH's decline will be greater.
3. Key observation: ETH spot ETF fund flows; as long as there is no sustained large outflow, this correction is only technical pullback, not a trend reversal.
III. U.S. Stocks and U.S. Tech Stocks (Nasdaq, Chips, AI, Storage) Follow-up Trend
Core Market at Close on July 28
Nasdaq closed down for the fourth consecutive day at -0.18%, showing structural divergence: storage chips and AI computing power plunged across the board, while Apple, Microsoft, and Google strengthened against the trend. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.23%, Nvidia dropped nearly 5%, Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix plunged; Apple’s market cap surpassed Nvidia to reclaim global No.1, with defensive funds clustering around consumer tech leaders.
Subsequent Sector Trend Breakdown
1) Semiconductors/Memory/AI Computing Power (SOXL, Micron, SK Hynix, Nvidia) — short-term pressured oscillation
The core logic of the decline is not fundamental collapse but three realities:
① Concentrated profit-taking from high gains; AI computing power and storage have surged greatly in the past six months;
② Multiple investment banks lowered their price hike expectations for storage in the second half of the year; expectations for DRAM and NAND price peaks in Q4 are rising;
③ Fed’s high-rate expectations suppress valuations of high-growth stocks.
- Short-term trend: oscillating to form a bottom, weak consolidation for 2~3 trading days
Short-term support: key support level of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index; if the Fed tonight has no major negative news, oversold chips may see a technical small rebound;
Mid-term: storage and computing power enter phase oscillation, no one-way plunge, waiting for August cloud vendor capital expenditure and chip order data before choosing direction.
2) Apple, Microsoft, Google (defensive tech) — oscillating with strength bias
Stable cash flow, low valuation volatility, becoming a safe haven during market panic phases, with strong subsequent resilience. They are the core stabilizers of the Nasdaq and unlikely to experience deep corrections.
3) Overall market logic
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire caused oil prices to plunge, significantly easing inflation pressure and indirectly reducing Fed tightening pressure. This is the biggest mid-to-long-term positive for U.S. stocks. Short-term, all contradictions focus on the Fed decision in the early hours of July 29:
- Hawkish speech: Nasdaq and high-valuation tech stocks continue to pull back;
- Dovish reassurance: chips and computing power see oversold repair rebounds.
IV. Summary of the Three Major Market Linkage Logic
1. The biggest short-term variable is only the Fed rate decision; geopolitical positives have been fully priced in and no longer dominate the market;
2. Crypto market (BTC/ETH): high-level oscillation and consolidation, direction fully tied to dollar liquidity expectations;
3. U.S. tech stocks: extreme structural market, computing power and chips weak short-term, consumer software tech strong, no comprehensive bull market end. Has Bitcoin Bottomed? 🤔
My view: Probably not—at least not yet.
Here's why:
📉 History rhymes. Previous bear markets saw strong mid-cycle rallies before making new lows. The current rally still fits that pattern.
📊 The drawdown remains relatively shallow. Past bear markets reached much deeper corrections before finding a lasting bottom.
🔄 No major capitulation event. Previous cycle lows were marked by forced liquidations and panic selling. This cycle hasn't seen a comparable washout.
💰 Realized Price still matters. Historically, Bitcoin has often traded near or below its realized price before forming a macro bottom. That level remains an important area to watch.
🌍 Macro uncertainty persists. Sticky inflation, softer risk appetite, and cautious sentiment continue to weigh on markets.
That said, there is one major difference this cycle:
The ETF era has introduced a new class of long-term holders, which could make this bear market shallower than previous ones. If that's the case, a move toward realized price without a deep breakdown could be enough.
For long-term investors, trying to perfectly call the exact bottom is far less important than consistent dollar-cost averaging (DCA) through periods of weakness.
The market rewards discipline more often than perfect timing.
NFA. Always DYOR.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #DCA #Investing #MarketCycles #OKXOrbit【Hayes持续场外增持ETH，短线偏多但不宜追高】
ETH短线偏多但不宜追高，连续的场外买入给市场提供了明确的需求信号，但单一知名资金的配置行为不能直接等同于整体资金趋势。更值得关注的是买入是否会带动后续更广泛的现货承接，而非只把它当作短期情绪催化。
链上监测显示，Arthur Hayes两小时前通过FalconX和Galaxy Digital，以场外交易花费632万枚USDC买入3298枚ETH；自7月15日以来，他累计花费1382万枚USDC，买入7212.6枚ETH，平均买入价约1916美元。这意味着其买入并非一次性动作，而是连续执行的配置。
场外成交的特点是能够承接相对集中的买盘，同时对公开交易盘面的即时冲击通常较小。因此，这类信息的价值不在于机械推导短线价格，而在于它展示了有资金愿意在特定区间持续完成配置。若其他买方未跟进，市场仍可能消化完消息后回归自身供需节奏。
后面就看后续是否仍有连续增持记录、现货市场是否出现更广泛的成交配合，以及ETH能否在没有单一买方消息加持时保持承接。若买入节奏中断且市场跟随不足，短线利好也可能很快被交易完。
以上仅为个人观点分享，不构成任何投资建议。市场瞬息万变，交易盈亏自负。[Meta's data center financing costs are relatively high, AI infrastructure narrative remains cautious in the short term]
Meta's AI infrastructure narrative is cautious in the short term, and high coupon returns mean the market has not priced this hyperscale data center financing entirely as a "low-risk, high-quality asset." The smooth completion of project financing is a positive sign, but financing costs themselves raise market expectations for subsequent returns, so positive factors may not immediately translate into valuation upgrades.
BlackRock issued $12.55 billion in investment-grade bonds for Meta's El Paso data center project in Texas, with a yield of 7.534%, 287.5 basis points higher than U.S. Treasuries; about $20 billion was subscribed, roughly 1.6 times the issuance amount, below the average subscription level of this year's bond issuance of about four times. Subsequently, the spread narrowed to about 260 basis points, indicating that high yields still attract some capital.
The key point is that the narrowing of secondary market spreads shows that funds are willing to take on the returns, but it does not mean the market has already recognized the project's long-term economic returns. For Meta, the financing ensures capital expenditure advancement; However, in terms of valuation, the high price of debt funds makes data center utilization, AI product monetization, and cash flow recovery cycles more important.
Going forward, it will depend on whether the bond spread can remain stable, the subsequent subscription of similar financing, and whether the data center investment can correspond to clearer business returns. If high yields become the norm, the capital cost pressure for AI infrastructure cannot be ignored.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.After the 4-hour period formed the current high of 66,956, the market was firmly suppressed by the downtrend line, and the overall pattern emerged from a bearish structure characterized by a gradual decline from the high, mainly a swing downward trend. The previous upward trendline was effectively broken by a large bearish candle in the physical sector, and the bullish rebound momentum has completely exhausted. The price has successively broken below two key support levels: the first is strong resistance at 65,588.15 (previous platform support has turned into resistance), and the second is the medium-term support at 63,755.59. The current price is already trading below 63,755, and after this support is breached, this level has turned into a key resistance zone. The intraday low was 63,059.40, indicating a slight oversold recovery in the short term, with weak rebound momentum, representing a weak rebound during the downtrend. Resistance above: 63755~64000~65500; Support below: 63050~62787~62000. A 4-hour bearish pattern is established. Before a bullish candle recovers 63755 with increased volume, the overall approach is mainly to short on rebounds, with caution and short-term bullish positions at low levels as a supplement. 7.28 Short Trading Strategy: Short at 63,800-64,000, target 63,000-62,800, stop loss at 62,400, go long at 62,850-63,000, target 63,700-63,500, stop loss at 62,700 $BTC $BTC $SOL #长鑫科技上市, adding variables to global storage competition. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon can stabilize the AI narrative#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 If this bill passes, BTC can rise, but your U might be frozen
What does this bill have to do with the currency you hold?
If the CLARITY Act passes, big institutions will dare to enter, and BTC will have long-term capital as a bottom. However, stablecoin regulation will tighten; issuers of USDT and USDC must have 1:1 reserves and monthly disclosures, and the U in your wallet may be frozen at any time. If you use U for financial management, your returns may drop to zero.
The bill itself isn't that complicated; it's meant to set the rules for the U.S. crypto industry. Previously, the SEC and CFTC fought over territory—one said coins were securities, the other commodities, and project teams didn't know whom to listen to. CLARITY aims to solve this problem—clearly stating who controls what.
Key points:
BTC and ETH are considered "digital commodities" and are managed by the CFTC. Stablecoin issuers must have 1:1 reserves and disclose monthly. Coins kept in your wallet will not be recognized as "ownerless property" and confiscated. White hat hackers who discover vulnerabilities will not be prosecuted. Developers who write code will not be held responsible.
Now stuck on ethical terms. The Democratic Party demands an additional clause: banning the issuance of tokens and sponsorship of crypto projects by the president and senior officials during their term. Trump is expected to make $1.4 billion from crypto by 2025, and this cut is aimed at him. After more than half a year of deadlock, the White House finally agreed to join on July 21.
The House passed last July with 294 votes, and the Senate Banking Committee passed it in May. Now, only a full Senate vote is needed, requiring 60 votes. The Republicans have only 53 seats, so they need to win at least 7 Democrats. Adjournment on August 7, the window is very tight.
Share your thoughts in the comments—do you think this bill will pass?7月28日黄金行情核心消息面全梳理：地缘与政策双重博弈，金价静待方向抉择
本周以来，现货黄金在4065-4116区间维持宽幅震荡，多空力量进入短暂平衡。随着7月末美联储议息会议临近，叠加中东局势演化、美国政治干预货币政策等多重消息集中释放，黄金定价逻辑正在发生微妙切换。今日两大核心事件持续发酵，成为左右短线行情的关键变量。
一、美伊停火暗藏变数，油价回落重塑通胀预期
当地时间7月27日，特朗普公开表态称“有足够耐心与伊朗达成新协议，若谈判失败则恢复军事打击”，为持续半月的美伊冲突定下了“边谈边压”的基调。此前美方已下令暂停对伊朗持续13天的空袭行动，伊朗同步回应以停火换停火，双方进入战术性停火阶段，为外交斡旋留出窗口。
这一局势变化直接冲击能源市场：国际油价单日暴跌超7%，WTI原油跌破82美元/桶，布伦特原油失守88美元关口，前期因地缘冲突累积的风险溢价集中回吐。对于黄金而言，油价大跌的影响具有两面性：一方面，地缘避险情绪降温会削弱黄金的避险买盘，对金价形成短期压制；另一方面，能源价格回落显著缓解了市场对“通胀二次抬头、倒逼美联储持续加息”的担忧，美债长端收益率随之下行，无息资产黄金的持有成本得到边际改善，反而构成支撑。
值得注意的是，本次停火具有极强的临时性。伊朗方面对美方诚意“怀疑多于乐观”，特朗普也明确表示谈判窗口期很短，谈不拢将迅速重启军事行动。中东局势的不确定性并未完全消除，地缘风险仍将为金价提供底部托底，一旦谈判破裂，黄金的避险属性将再度被激活。
二、特朗普公开施压降息，美联储政策预期陷入博弈
同日，特朗普再度发声力挺美联储主席沃什推动降息，呼吁美国利率要降至全球最低水平，同时炮轰美联储理事会中的“阻降派”成员，指责其“政治化、怀有不良意图”，干预货币政策决策的意图十分明显。这是特朗普上任以来持续施压美联储的又一表态，也让市场开始重新计价后续的利率路径。
事实上，沃什上任以来始终强调美联储的政策独立性，明确表示不会屈从于政治压力。但市场普遍认为，在持续的政治施压下，美联储后续货币政策的宽松倾向可能边际增强。当前市场基准预期是7月FOMC会议维持利率不变，但受油价回落、通胀风险降温影响，9月加息的概率已从此前高位有所回落，降息预期的边际升温，成为近期金价反弹的重要推手。
本周三凌晨的美联储议息决议将是行情的核心转折点。若沃什在讲话中偏鸽，承认通胀风险下降、释放降息信号，金价有望突破4116阻力，打开上行空间；若表态维持鹰派，强调通胀粘性与就业韧性，保留加息选项，金价则大概率再度回踩4000美元关口支撑。
三、长期托底逻辑未改，震荡等待方向落地
除了短线事件驱动，黄金的长期支撑逻辑并未改变。全球央行持续增持黄金储备，中国央行已连续20个月扩储，新兴市场央行购金趋势不变，为金价构筑了坚实的下跌底线。资金面上，全球最大黄金ETF SPDR近期连续获资金增持，显示机构资金在4000美元附近逐步进场抄底，下行空间被显著收窄。
整体来看，当前黄金处于“地缘风险托底+利率预期改善”的多空拉扯格局中，短线震荡仍是主基调，真正的方向选择将等待美联储议息会议落地。操作上需保持耐心，避免盲目追涨杀跌，待政策信号明确后再顺势布局。The core reasons for the current round of BTC decline (multiple negative factors, driven by macroeconomics, amplified by capital and leverage)
1. Fundamental core: The Fed's rate cut expectations continue to be delayed, U.S. Treasury yields rise (the most fundamental reason)
BTC is a zero-coupon risk asset that does not generate cash flow; its valuation heavily depends on USD liquidity and real interest rates:
Recently, inflation resilience and stronger-than-expected employment data have led the market to continuously postpone the Fed's rate cut timing, even repricing "possible rate hikes again within the year";
U.S. Treasury yields rebound, the dollar index strengthens, risk-free returns rise, and capital is unwilling to continue holding highly volatile crypto assets;
Geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices, the market worries about recurring inflation, further reinforcing expectations that "high interest rates will be maintained longer";
BTC is now highly correlated with Nasdaq and other U.S. stock risk assets; during the risk-off phase, it is sold off simultaneously, and the digital gold safe-haven narrative temporarily fails.
$ETH $BTC #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ Today, as soon as the market opened, $BEAT played out a waterfall. I opened short at 4.1172, 10x leverage, and closed all the way to 3.0391. The market plunged from last night's 4.13 to the floor, dropping 44% in one day. Margin was 41.17U, pocketing 107.81U, return 259%. Last night's bullish candlestick was quite impressive—MACD just hit golden cross, all the bullish chasers rushed in. Looking back today, that was the main force's bullish lure before the surge in — a big bearish candle that swept through all those who chased yesterday. Holding this order is not my accurate judgment It's because the position is light enough, with 41U margin. The forced liquidation is far away and you don't need to worry about it, so I dare to hold on even when I'm losing money. If the position were a bit heavier, I wouldn't have been able to hold out last night. In this 107U, there's both patience and luck. Luck isn't always on my side. Next time my position gets bigger, I definitely won't hold it this way. $BTC today it crashed too. The 4-hour chart saw volume rise and broke below 64,000. MACD death cross and green bars expanded, hitting a low of 63,448. 63,000 is the last line of defense. If it breaks, I'll go straight for 62,500 or even 61,800 Don't buy from Flying Knife in the morning session. Wait 4 hours for volume to shrink or close with a long lower shadow. $SNDK worse, it fell from 1694 all the way. Today it plunged directly past 1300, the platform broke below 1400. Before it stands back to 1400, there's no value to participate in the $BEAT. It dropped 44%. In the short term, it's all trapped and bottom-fishing. If you want to grab a rebound, you have to wait for it to stabilize between 2.2 and 2.3. Buy now$AEON ，单日暴涨70%+，市值才1600万美金，直接冲上热度榜324位。
但这玩意儿，到底是下一个支付宝，还是新一轮韭菜收割机？听我三分钟给你扒透。
先说故事，确实性感。
AEON打的旗号是「AI Agent的支付基础设施」——什么意思？就是你未来让AI帮你订机票、订酒店，AI自己拿加密货币去结算；或者你拿手机一扫，加密资产直接付给楼下便利店。听上去是不是很Web3+AI？赛道没问题，x402、Google AP2这些协议也确实在集成，落地也有，墨西哥SPEI、埃及钱包都接进去了。
但问题出在盘子上，而且是大问题。
总供应量10个亿，现在流通只有1.88个亿，流通率不到19%。这意味着什么？意味着市面上能买卖的只是冰山一角，绝大部分币还锁在项目方手里。今天涨70%不稀奇，哪天解锁潮一来，砸盘力度你自己想。
有一点值得单独拎出来说。
项目方公开承诺——团队零持仓、永不卖币，收入靠项目利润，不靠割韭菜。这在币圈确实是清流，说明团队是想做事的。但「想做事的团队」和「价格不会跌」之间，没有任何关系。
总结一句。
AEON这个标的，赛道对、故事好、团队有底线，但当前价格已经严重脱离基本面。5.76倍的交易量/市值比，说明全是热钱在滚，散户冲进去就是和波段机器人对杀。
我的看法很明确——看得懂，但不追。 真看好，等它第一波情绪冷却、代币解锁路线图明朗之后再说。现在冲，是赌博不是投资。 The South Korean stock market plunged 8%, and chip stocks plunged collectively
Yesterday they were still rushing for chip stocks, but today the market has completely suspended trading
On the morning of July 28, South Korea's KOSPI index fell by 8%, triggering circuit breakers and a 20-minute trading halt
SK Hynix fell about 11%, and Samsung Electronics fell over 9%. Japanese stocks also weakened, with Kioxia plunging as much as 18% at one point
The crypto market cooled simultaneously, with BTC falling to around $63,262, down 2.02% intraday, and ETH down 2.74%
This indicates that funds are shrinking risk, rather than just selling Korean stocks
Next, it will be important to see whether the decline can stabilize after Korean stocks resume trading, and whether BTC can sustain the $ETH $BTC near $63,000 $CORE This CORE project is 100% dead, and the project team has no way out. They can't pump the price. When the staking feature was first launched, there were over 2,000 BTC staked, and after several years, it's still about the same amount. There are rumors that the project team is using the core tokens from other projects they run, like OEX and SHDW, and then exchanging them for BTC. The BTC staking interest basically goes to the project team, who keep dumping to cash out and continue buying BTC. This kind of model for CORE is destined to be a cash machine for BTC holders, with retail investors continuously supplying interest to BTC.As someone said, a rebound is not a trend reversal. Don't chase after the peak and cut losses. Some of the antis in the comment section, please don't annoy me with your immature trading mindset.
Today's short strategy, position set at resistance zone 655, 1980, target 645, 1920 was precisely realized. Bitcoin created a gap of about 1300 points, while Ethereum synchronized by about 60 points.
Last week's strategy was consecutive wins; as said, if you follow it, profits will follow. As usual, it was executed precisely, and everyone who took the short position should rejoice.
$BTC $ETHI am a member of the ALD community, and we are co-builders of web3. Gate has seriously impacted industry compliance and has significant internal loopholes, which has a huge impact on the industry. As a leading industry leader, we need to jointly maintain industry transparency and credibility. Official management, please pay attention: "Regarding the listing of Gate and the ALD community."[July 28 Mangkhut Market Morning Report] $ETH $BTC $SOL
BTC
Good morning, brothers. After the US stock market opened last night, the stock market plunged collectively. BTC broke through 65,000 and 64,000 in the early morning, and all three coins entered the deep oversold zone. Last night at 20:00, the 4-hour candlestick on Da Bing first surged to 65,710, but failed to hold and immediately dropped back to 64,423 (volume increase of 1.74 billion). At midnight, the stock rebounded with reduced volume to 64,980 and stabilized but was hopeless. At 04:00, the 4-hour candlestick crashed — from 64,981 to 63,610, a drop of nearly $1,400, with a trading volume of 99.3 million. At 08:00, the decline continued to 63,222. The current RSI is 6 at 14.9, indicating deep oversoldness.
Detailed explanation of the location:
Current four-hour resistance level: 63,800-64,000 (closing at 04:00 and the round number level). If the rebound reaches here, reduce positions and observe the situation
Current four-hour support level: 63,064-63,222 (this morning's low and current price). Deeply oversold is not suitable for short selling
⚠️ Weak oscillation: RSI 6 is only 14.9. After volume shrinks and stabilizes, the probability of a short-term rebound increases. The target is 63,600-64,000. If volume rises above 64,554, it will strengthen
ETH
The second round plunged simultaneously: at 03:00 it was still at 1948, at 06:00 it plunged straight to 1894 (volume increased by 19.2 million), and at 08:00 it dropped to 1879. Starting from yesterday's high of 1981, the cumulative drop has exceeded 100 dollars. RSI 6 at 15.7 is also deeply oversold, with a volume-to-volume ratio of only 0.35, indicating weakening downward momentum.
Detailed explanation of the location:
Current four-hour resistance level: 1894-1900 (before the 06:00 breakout), reduce positions after rebounding here
Current four-hour support level: 1866-1875 (24-hour low and current); holding holds may lead to a recovery
✈️ Oversold rebound: After volume shrinks and stabilizes, the target is 1894-1920. Deep oversold ranges are not suitable for short selling
SOL
SOL fell from 76 all the way down to 73.23, and in 24 hours it fell -3.98%, making it the weakest among the three currencies. RSI 6 is deeply oversold at 15.4, and the lower BB band at 72.97 is nearly touched.
Detailed explanation of the location:
Current four-hour resistance level: 74.5-75.5 (near MA7); reduce positions here after rebounding
Current four-hour support level: 72.87-73.23 (lower BB band and current price); deeply oversold should focus on stabilization
✈️ Oversold rebound: RSI 6 has reached the 15.4 extreme oversold zone, targeting 74-75
#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon hold the AI narrative? Yesterday's $AEON—I said it was finished. Any brothers who agree?
1. The pre-market price was hyped up to 0.24U, then jumped at the open, then kept falling, almost falling back to the pool!
2. To hide shipments, the project team stopped selling on-chain and instead sold on exchanges...... And given the general trend of airdrop users next door, even bottom-fishing, the price has dropped like this—how could they sell like this?
3. No new projects for over 30 days, with a crowd watching to taste the saltiness; With such a huge potential buying opportunity, the trend is like this—it's basically a complete pull$ESPHigh-beta speculative token getting crushed. No bid support, no narrative strength, no technical bottom.The 8 strong plays:
\(ETH,\)SOL,\(BTC,\)HYPE,\(SUI,\)XRP,\(ZAMA,\)XAU.The 92 laggards:
\(ESP,\)LAB,\(BEAT,\)RE,\(SHIB,\)WLD,\(UB,\)LA,\(ALLO,\)DOGE,\(ZEC,\)PEPE, and low-liquidity speculative tokens.$ESP at 0.08093, down 8.74%. RSI6 at 31.18 — oversold but trending lower. EMA5 (0.08103) below EMA10 (0.08158) and EMA20 (0.08280) — strong bearish stack. MACD barely positive at 0.00003 with DIF (-0.00171) above DEA (-0.00172) — marginal bullish cross but no conviction. SAR at 0.08153 overhead. Price collapsed from 0.12032 high — down 33%. 24H volume 1.38B but all selling pressure. No accumulation. Do not touch.This coin broke me down. Last night, US stocks like SanDisk and Micron plunged~ and also broke the Japanese and Korean opens, with Korea about to go down as a circuit breaker again
On one hand, many companies refuse to raise storage prices~ The $950 billion agreement between the US and South Korea is essentially a capacity lock—South Korea is exchanging about 90% of the world's HBM supply capacity for a five-year, long-term order from the US AI giant.
On the other hand, Changxin's listing can provide some low-end supply to the domestic market and reduce dependence on foreign countries, but high-end is not enough. State-owned enterprises with a background in Changxin's listing have already begun mass-producing DUV chip manufacturing tools. Under the U.S. restrictions, this progress marks a breakthrough for China's domestic chip industry. Once Changxin's production capacity is released~ the global balance of supply and demand for memory chips will tip, reducing dependence and not being decided by the US or South Korea. The rise of domestic computing power brings shockwaves. #ChangxinTechnologyListingAdds Variable to Global Storage Competition $ SNDK The complete reason behind SanDisk's stock price crash I. Macroeconomic core negative factors: The Fed's high interest rates continue to suppress valuations (root cause) 1. Expectations for rate hikes have reversed across the board, and US Treasury yields continue to rise. Middle East conflict pushed oil above $100, raising the risk of an inflation rebound. The market priced in a 77% probability of a rate hike by the Fed in September, pushing rate cut expectations for the year straight into 2027, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained at a high level of 4.7%. Storage is a long-duration growth asset, with stock valuations relying entirely on forward AI earnings discounts; A rise in risk-free interest rates will directly compress forward cash flow valuations, making high-valuation savings stocks the preferred target for capital sell-offs. 2. Shift in Risk-Averse Logic Risk-Free Returns on Government Bonds Continue to Rise, Funds Withdraw from the Volatile, Valuation-Bubble-Prone Technology Storage Sector to Low-Risk Fixed Income Assets, Continuing to Bleed Down in the Sector. 2. Comprehensive Loosening of Industry Fundamentals (Core Trigger for Collapse) 1. Fundamental Doubts Arise in AI Computing Power Demand Narrative • Meta officially announced leasing idle AI computing power, which the market interprets as a temporary oversupply of computing power from leading cloud providers. In the future, it will significantly cut purchases of HBM and enterprise-grade SSD storage, breaking the core logic behind the storage sector's rise — a long-term shortage of AI computing power. • Google and Meta's earnings reports show AI capital spending expanding wildly, but free cash flow turning negative, raising concerns that cloud providers may slow down hardware procurement and significantly revise long-term storage demand expectations. • Google launched a memory compression algorithm that can reduce memory usage for AI modelsThis is a "heavy blow"
Late last night, breaking news arrived:
Some brokerages have received notice from the exchange: the access method for trading quotes in exchange data centers will be uniformly changed to wide-area network lines, and the original LAN lines will be officially shut down on the evening of July 31, 2026.
What does this mean? Translated into plain language—
Previously, market participants had two ways to receive market quotes:
1. "WAN lines" must pass through gateway routing forwarding, with latency generally rising to 1.2–2 milliseconds, and increased jitter.
2. The "LAN market line" uses the exchange's data center intranet for direct connection, with latency of 0.3–0.8 milliseconds and extremely low jitter. Some high-frequency quantitative institutions use this method of receiving market quotes.
This change has a significant impact on ultra-high-frequency strategies that rely on microsecond-level market trends to profit early. Their key to making money is to spot market changes earlier than other market participants, and LAN channels are their key hardware moat.
After July 31, the "time advantage" of high-frequency quantitative market reception no longer exists. This is also an important part of what people often call "equity in transaction infrastructure."
When some media reported on this news, they added, "According to market sources close to regulation, this is a routine operation and does not target specific trades, including quantitative trading."
Perhaps because this time only the market quote reception chain was adjusted, the trading quote channel was not closed, there were no restrictions on institutional data center custody, no prohibition on quantitative trading, and only the differentiated hardware dividends brought by the intranet market were offset.
However, this new rule is indeed a significant negative for ultra-high-frequency arbitrage strategies at the microsecond level. The market's excess returns relying on pure speed will decrease, and funds will further tilt toward fundamental and medium- to long-term strategies.
Last night and early this morning, the three major U.S. stock indexes showed mixed results. The Nasdaq edged down, while the Dow and S&P edged higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once plunged more than 5%, ultimately closing down 2.23%.
Nvidia fell nearly 5%, SK Hynix fell 7.47%, SanDisk dropped 11%, TSMC dropped 1%, Mywell fell 2.61%, and Broadcom rose 0.34%.
Actually, there was no sudden negative news. In the Middle East, Trump has begun to take a turn. In addition to stopping attacks on Iran, he also stated that the U.S. negotiations with Iran are "going well," and that he has enough patience and time to reach an agreement with Iran.
However, market confidence in the AI computing power narrative has weakened, and attention has shifted: cloud vendors (the main buyers in this AI hardware bull market) are endlessly spending money on GPUs and expanding computing power. When will AI businesses generate positive free cash flow? Can the massive capital investment yield sufficient returns?
The comeback by Kimi and DeepSeek has led the market to question the American model—whether the ultra-high investment in AI hardware is necessary and sustainable.
Institutions such as Morgan Stanley predict that this round of storage price hikes is likely to approach a turning point in the fourth quarter, with DRAM and NAND price increases slowing down.
Moreover, the previous price increase was too large, and the degree of capital consolidation was high, leading to this round of adjustment.
Brent crude oil fell nearly 7% in a single day, and Zhongji Xuchuang's Hong Kong listing offering price was set at HKD 980 per share.
Special Note: This article is for sharing opinions and information and does not constitute any investment advice. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables $SNDK