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NVIDIA Earnings Report Released! Clear Interpretation of SanDisk's Subsequent Trend
NVIDIA's latest Q2 earnings report exceeded expectations, confirming the high prosperity of AI computing power and directly setting the tone for the subsequent market of AI storage, also revealing the core reason behind SanDisk's recent continuous adjustment.
Many wonder: The AI market hasn't retreated, so why has SanDisk continued to weaken?
The essence is not a collapse in logic, but rather an early over-expectation at high levels plus risk aversion before the earnings report. Previously, SanDisk had a huge short-term gain, combined with a weak quarterly guidance, the market took profits early, resulting in a phase of correction, which is a typical emotional and valuation-driven sell-off, not a fundamental problem.
This NVIDIA earnings report is a key turning point: AI server orders and enterprise computing capital expenditure continue to grow strongly, completely dispelling market fears of "AI demand peaking."
It should be clear: high-end AI servers cannot do without high-speed storage. SanDisk, as a core AI storage target, is deeply tied to NVIDIA's computing power industry chain. The industry's rigid demand logic is completely solid. Weakness in consumer-grade storage cycles does not affect its AI incremental performance at all.
Trend Forecast
Short term: The negative news has landed, an oversold recovery rally begins, valuation at low levels has rebound elasticity.
Mid term: Farewell to broad market decline sentiment, relying on continuous realization of AI computing orders, entering a structurally independent market.
Summary: SanDisk's earlier phase was just a high-level reshuffle, not the end of the market. NVIDIA's strong growth confirmation supports the bottom, and a secondary recovery rally in AI storage is already expected.
#NVIDIAearnings #SanDisk #SNDK #USstockanalysis #AIstorage #chipmarketI strongly agree with Murphy's observation about BTC's "realized profit–price divergence." Interestingly, this resonates with a judgment I've repeatedly mentioned before: a fairly obvious bearish divergence has appeared on BTC's 4-hour chart.
One looks at price, the other at on-chain profit behavior, but essentially they observe the same thing—the price is still rising, but the marginal momentum driving the price higher is declining.
This does not mean an immediate drop, nor does it mean one should short now. What truly deserves caution is: if BTC continues to make new highs but realized profits, trading activity, and other momentum indicators fail to simultaneously reach new highs, this kind of "bullish divergence" may strengthen continuously. The most dangerous moments in the market are often not when the trend has ended, but when the trend still appears strong while the internal momentum has quietly started to fade.
So what I’m focusing on now is not whether BTC’s next candle will go up or down, but: after a new high, is there new incremental demand?
If not, then a "small problem" could slowly evolve into a "big problem."
For now, observe first; don’t rush to conclusions. 近期仓位数据出现了一个值得关注的分化： $ETH 的大额多头仓位继续改善，说明部分资金正在逐步增加对 ETH 的看涨敞口。 相比之下，$BTC 的多头仓位出现一定降温，更像是部分交易者在快速反弹后选择锁定利润、降低杠杆。 但真正值得盯紧的，是 BTC 当前的清算流动性。 BTC 目前在 $78.3K 附近震荡，下方 $75.9K–$77.1K 区域存在较明显的潜在流动性；与此同时，上方 $81.7K–$83.4K 一带的空头杠杆也正在累积。 这意味着市场很容易出现一次剧烈扫流动性。 如果 BTC 跌破 $77.1K，可能触发多头止损与连锁清算，价格进一步测试下方流动性。 但如果快速下探后出现现货买盘承接，就可能形成经典结构： 流动性扫荡 → 杠杆多头被迫离场 → 现货资金吸收卖压 → 快速反弹 所以，短线下跌本身并不等于趋势反转。 更值得注意的是，8月25日美国现货 BTC ETF 仍录得约 $314.4M 净流入，其中 IBIT 约 $284.4M；ETH ETF 同期也吸引约 $179.8M，说明机构资金需求依然存在。 🔵 $ETH 可能成为下一阶段的观察重点 如果 BTC 短线If CPI is the face shown to the public, then PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) is the unshakable core for the Federal Reserve. Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, this inflation data, known as the Fed's favorite child, will be released.
When the market is already nearly neurotic from the back-and-forth over rate hikes and cuts, this report is either a lifesaver or a death sentence.
The current market expectation is that the July core PCE year-over-year will hold steady at 3.3%. Don't be fooled by the unchanged number; the content inside is lively:
* This inflation isn't all about fried chicken and soda. The large-scale construction of data centers has driven up prices for computer software and hardware, and even the inflation basket has been lifted by this "Silicon Valley effect."
* Ironically, the recent strong surge in U.S. stocks has increased asset management fees for those fund managers, and this expenditure is also counted in the PCE. In other words, the hotter the stock market, the harder it is to suppress inflation.
Inflation is like losing weight: the first 10 pounds are easy to shed, but the last 2 pounds often require skin to be peeled off. Core PCE has been above the 2% target for 65 consecutive months, and the Fed under Warsh is under so much pressure it feels like banging its head against the wall.
Currently, the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged in September is about 60%.
1. If the data > 3.3% (hotter than expected): the market will instantly explode. This means inflation is not only sticky but also elastic. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will directly break through the 100 mark, and tech stocks and cryptocurrencies should prepare for a Black Wednesday.This stage is actually very interesting. $BTC surges to around $80K → institutional funds buy BTC first → BTC rises about 23% → ETH starts to catch up significantly → high Beta assets like XRP and $HYPE begin to run → but the entire altcoin market is not yet in full frenzy. Currently, the Altcoin Season Index is only 38, indicating the market is far from the stage where "all altcoins fly together." This actually makes me feel that we are still in the early phase of capital dispersion, not the final frenzy stage. I will focus on observing three signals: First, whether ETH can continue to outperform BTC. BTC is responsible for attracting institutional funds; if ETH starts to consistently outperform, it means funds are moving from "digital gold" to "on-chain economy." BTC → ETH → $SOL /HYPE/XRP → DeFi/RWA → small and mid-cap altcoins → Meme If this chain really unfolds step by step, that will be the true bull market capital rotation. Second, whether ETF funds continue. Recently, BTC spot ETFs have seen obvious inflows again, with the largest IBIT even rising for 7 consecutive trading days. This is very important. Previously, the biggest characteristic of the crypto market was: Retail sentiment → leverage → pump → liquidation → crash Now there is an additional path: Traditional funds → ETF → spot → BTC/ETH → [Jiang Zhuoer: The probability of Bitcoin falling back below $67,000 is very low, ETH remains the "engine" of this bull market]
On August 26, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the B.TOP mining pool, posted that on the first U.S. stock trading day after the weekend surge, ETF fund flows became a key observation indicator. Data shows a net inflow of $314 million into Bitcoin ETFs and a net inflow of $180 million into Ethereum ETFs.
U.S. stock funds are chasing the rally, which means this round of gains is further confirmed by capital, and the probability of Bitcoin falling back below the $67,000 starting point is very low. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETF inflows amount to 57.2% of Bitcoin's, significantly higher than ETH/BTC's total market cap ratio of 18.8%. Based on this, he believes ETH will continue to act as the "engine" of this bull market.
With Trump significantly embracing blockchain and the advancement of the CLARITY Act, financial assets such as the dollar, U.S. stocks, and U.S. bonds may further move on-chain, become tokenized, and smart contract-enabled in the future. He believes this will drive more traditional financial professionals to understand and invest in the related blockchain ecosystem $BTC $ETH #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨
After breaking through $4600, international gold prices consolidated at a high level between $4630 and $4650. Citibank raised its short-term target price to $4800 and its long-term target to $5000. Meanwhile, gold ETFs increased holdings by over 28 tons in a single week, and Hong Kong's net gold exports to mainland China in July rose to 56.193 tons, both indicating that institutional and mainland physical hedging demand remains strong.
Shift in capital allocation
Institutional accumulation at high levels is not only a bet on interest rate cuts or geopolitical risks but also a long-term hedge against the expansion of U.S. debt and the decline in dollar credit.
Physical buying takes over
Although high gold prices suppress traditional gold jewelry consumption, demand for investment gold bars and currency hedging has increased, providing a solid foundation for high gold prices.
Forecast of subsequent trends
The market has largely priced in some interest rate cut expectations, with short-term risks of profit-taking and high-level consolidation.
High-probability trend
After confirming a pullback in the $4500–$4600 range, the market will continue to oscillate and build momentum amid the de-dollarization trend, aiming to surge to $4800 within the year.
Low-probability trend
If geopolitical tensions ease sharply or interest rate cut expectations are significantly disappointed, profit-taking could trigger a phase of deep correction.
Operational advice
As a long-term hedge, the logic of accumulating in batches during pullbacks remains unchanged. However, short-term chasing of highs has a low risk-reward ratio; avoid blindly leveraging at high levels.
DYOR $XAU $XAUT Coinbase recently announced the successful issuance of the first mortgage involving Bitcoin as part of the collateral structure loan with Fannie Mae in the United States. Coinbase is responsible for digital asset custody and collateral infrastructure. Borrowers can use BTC or USDC held in their Coinbase accounts as collateral to finance their home down payment without having to sell their digital assets first.
This is a two-layer loan structure. The first layer is a conventional residential mortgage that meets Fannie Mae standards. The second layer is a loan secured by BTC or USDC, used to fund part of the down payment. In other words, the risk of crypto assets is placed in the second-lien loan and custody structure, rather than directly entering Fannie Mae's core credit balance sheet.
The significance of this development lies not in the size of the first loan itself, but in advancing the long-term narrative about whether crypto assets can enter the traditional financial collateral system into an actionable policy and product prototype. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
I'm the mid-term intelligence guy, and tonight at 20:30 this PCE is the last touchstone before Jackson Hole.
The market expects overall month-on-month 0.1%, year-on-year 3.6%, core month-on-month 0.2%, year-on-year stuck at 3.3%—in other words, "month-on-month turning positive, year-on-year slowly declining," with June's -0.1% month-on-month treated as a one-off noise.
If it really falls within this range, the probability of a rate hike in September won't explode, but it won't die out either. CME currently bets 60% on no move in September and 40% on a hike; as long as the data doesn't blow up, this tug-of-war will continue.
The key is the day after tomorrow (28th at 22:00) when Waller makes his Jackson Hole debut. Upon taking office, he cut forward guidance and canceled the dot plot; his style is "less commitment, more framework."
I bet he won't give a clear path—at most, he'll reiterate that the door remains wide open until inflation returns to 2%, and mention his reforms to reduce meeting frequency and weaken guidance, kicking the ball back to the data.
So if tonight's PCE meets expectations, it gives Waller a step to "blur the path"; if core month-on-month jumps above 0.25%, Waller will be forced to say a few more hawkish words, and long bonds will move first.
Don't expect him to explicitly say whether September will see a hike. The mid-term guy only watches one thing: whether he's willing to replace "data dependence" with "conditional dependence." If he is, the path becomes half clear; if not, the market will keep guessing under 3.3% inflation.
$BTC
$ETH $BTC This round of market surge may not be a bull market restart, but rather a short-term resonance driven by loose liquidity and concentrated short squeeze.
There are two core triggers for this rebound. The first is Trump's latest public statement. Recently, he met with crypto industry executives at the White House, openly urging Congress to pass clear legislation favorable to the industry, even expressing consideration of continuing to increase Bitcoin holdings. This speech directly reversed market expectations, completely bidding farewell to the previous strong regulatory suppression atmosphere, and quickly dissipated panic among investors. Coupled with falling US Treasury yields and global liquidity easing, it laid a solid foundation for this rally.
But the key truth is that this surge is not driven by new money buying the dip, but by shorts being forced to cover. After a long period of consolidation, the market accumulated a massive amount of short positions.
After a slight market recovery, shorts were successively forced to close positions and buy back, combined with institutional ETF inflows, which rapidly propelled the market upward. Simply put: half of the rise is due to liquidity benefits, and the other half is pushed by the short squeeze.
This is also why retail investors find it hardest to profit in a surge. A true trending market rises slowly with repeated shakeouts; this kind of short squeeze rebound is characterized by rapid spikes, emotional exhaustion, and extreme volatility.
Now the entire network is unanimously calling a bull market, with sentiment fully charged. The eternal rule in trading circles: divergence creates trends, consensus signals turning points, and when everyone is euphoric, short-term risks often lurk.
Therefore, at this point, there is no need to blindly chase the bull or be overly bearish. Only mature trading cognition that understands cycles and capital logic can avoid being harvested by market sentiment. $ETH $OKB #Direct conclusion: This is not a trend reversal to bearish, don’t scare yourself.
First, the big picture. The underlying logic of this round of rally remains intact—the U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases to at least $4 billion per transaction, effectively injecting liquidity into the market; Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached about $1.9 billion in a single week, marking the best performance since last October; CryptoQuant’s "bullish score" surged from 30 to 80 within 7 days, with 8 out of 10 indicators turning bullish. Institutional analysts believe Bitcoin has exited the bear market and entered the early stage of a bull market.
But short-term overheating is also a fact. The Fear & Greed Index once hit 81, indicating "extreme greed," and a major whale realized a record profit of $614 million in a single day. Big tokens need to take a breather after a rally.
$BTC, current price 78300, daily retracement of 2.6%. The 4-hour consolidation zone is 75550-79500, with price oscillating within this range. Last week, it surged from around 62000 to 81272, so taking a breather here is very normal. Only if volume-backed support holds above 79500 and the pullback doesn’t break 78560 can bulls continue pushing higher; otherwise, it will keep grinding within the range. If it effectively breaks below 75550 and rebounds fail to reclaim 78560, then the third wave of bearish selling must be taken seriously. Keep an eye on these two levels.
$ETH, current price 2422, 4H consolidation zone 2356-2533. The 1-hour level is persistently capped at 2471, with rebound strength noticeably weaker than BTC. It has rebounded from 1870-1920 with a weekly gain of 25-30%, currently digesting profits at a high level. Bulls and bears haven’t settled yet; wait for it to choose a direction, don’t rush to take sides.
$SOL, current price 94.8, daily retracement 4.1%, 4H consolidation zone 91.6-102.7. After a previous high divergence, selling pressure remains. On-chain data looks strong—monthly transaction volume hit a record 4.2 billion, RWA holders surpassed 300,000, DeFi locked value is $10.7 billion—but price was pushed back from above 102 to around 97, indicating short-term sentiment is disconnected from fundamentals. If 91.6 fails to hold, don’t rush to catch the falling knife.
On-chain data shows some short-term whales transferring chips to exchanges; market sentiment remains in the greed zone. Sideways markets are the most exhausting—missing out won’t lose principal, if you don’t understand, just rest; holding your position carefully is the best way to avoid getting slapped back and forth.
The market is not over yet, but rhythm is more important than direction. Don’t chase highs at the top of the range, and don’t get scared out by a single bearish candle. Let the market move more, wait for clear signals before acting.Stocks are evaluated based on revenue and profit; commodities are judged by supply and demand.
But BTC, ETH, and the like do not generate cash flow themselves; most of the capital trading is a bet on future positive developments (ETF approval, crypto legislation passing, regulatory easing).
As long as officials, the SEC, the Federal Reserve, or Grayscale executives make verbal statements, it directly changes everyone's expectations for the future:
- Friendly statements → everyone anticipates that funds can enter the market compliantly in the future → scramble to accumulate and push prices up
- Strict regulatory/hawkish statements → anticipate policy tightening and capital flight → collective sell-off and price drop
Once expectations change, prices change immediately, without the need for the event to actually materialize.
2. Market structure: extremely high leverage amplifies volatility
Crypto contract leverage is widespread, with many retail investors holding leveraged positions:
Positive statements drive price up → trigger long positions to take profits and add more;
Negative statements crash the market → continuous liquidation of long positions, and liquidations further push prices down, causing a stampede-like decline
Liquidity is inherently uneven (especially in altcoins), so it doesn't take huge capital; small sell or buy orders can cause large price swings.
This is the common saying: "Once news breaks, the volatility far exceeds the actual value of the news itself."
Many policies and regulatory trends are pre-leaked to Wall Street and large market makers:
1) They accumulate chips at low prices in advance
2) Wait for official "friendly statements" to attract retail investors chasing the news
3) Institutions sell while the hype lasts, then release more cautious remarks, causing prices to fall back
This is exactly what you mentioned earlier: repeatedly blowing the wind, only speculating on expectations without realization, repeatedly harvesting retail investors. I strongly agree with Murphy's observation about BTC's "realized profit–price divergence." Interestingly, this resonates with a judgment I've repeatedly mentioned before: a fairly obvious bearish divergence has appeared on BTC's 4-hour chart.
One looks at price, the other at on-chain profit behavior, but essentially they observe the same thing—the price is still rising, but the marginal momentum driving the price higher is declining.
This does not mean an immediate drop, nor does it mean one should short now. What truly deserves caution is: if BTC continues to make new highs but realized profits, trading activity, and other momentum indicators fail to simultaneously reach new highs, this kind of "bullish divergence" may strengthen continuously. The most dangerous moments in the market are often not when the trend has ended, but when the trend still appears strong while the internal momentum has quietly started to fade.
So what I’m focusing on now is not whether BTC’s next candle will go up or down, but: after a new high, is there new incremental demand?
If not, then a "small problem" could slowly evolve into a "big problem."
For now, observe first; don’t rush to conclusions. I mentioned before that this was an extremely important post, which is why I’m quoting it and reposting the same chart.
In every major $BTC bear market, we’ve seen 3 significant lows. The third major low this cycle was the $57K low.
From both a wave count and technical perspective, it was clear that this was a potential bottoming-formation low. Historically, every previous bear cycle also formed 3 major lows, making a new low after $57K less likely from a purely fractal perspective. Today, the bears can finally eat their fill.
$BTC is currently around 78,300, down about 1.3% in 24 hours, with trading volume sharply shrinking by nearly 47%. Yesterday it briefly touched 81,200, but today it was pushed back below 80,000—a typical pump and dump.
This week actually saw a strong rise, with a weekly gain of over 22%, but today's movement shows that the selling pressure above is really heavy.
There are two key events tonight that will truly influence the coin price 👇
1. US Core PCE data
This is the inflation indicator the Fed cares about most. The market currently prices a 39.6% chance of a 25bp rate hike in September, and a 60.4% chance of holding rates steady.
• PCE beats expectations → hike probability jumps → borrowing costs for trading increase → BTC under pressure
• PCE is moderate → rates hold steady → funds willing to take risks again → testing above 80,000
2. Nvidia earnings + Fed Chair Waller's debut at Jackson Hole
On Friday, new Fed Chair Waller will speak, and the market wants to figure out which indicators the new leader focuses on. This is more important than the numbers themselves.
💡 The liquidity situation hasn't collapsed: BTC spot ETFs have had net inflows for 6 consecutive days, with $338 million flowing in on August 24 alone, and BlackRock has increased holdings for 7 straight days. Institutions are quietly accumulating at low levels.
My personal view—
Most people don't believe the bull market has arrived yet. The market is undergoing a ghost adjustment for a few days to build enough short positions, then it will explode upward again 🌏 "Overview of Core Global Financial Market Events"
📅 August 26, 2026 (Wednesday)
Bitcoin briefly broke above $81,000 yesterday, reaching a high near $81,300, then retreated to consolidate around $78,500, currently hovering near $78,500.
Weekly gains exceeded 24% from $62,800, with ETF net inflows around $1.9 billion for the week, marking the best in nearly 10 months.
The real test comes tonight and tomorrow night, first the PCE data, then Nvidia's earnings report—two events setting the tone in succession.
🌏 Macro Fundamentals and News
Federal Reserve discount rate minutes show growing internal disagreement on rate hikes
The Fed's July discount rate meeting minutes revealed that 4 of the 12 regional Fed banks voted to raise the emergency lending rate. Dallas, Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Fed all advocated a 25 basis point hike, aligning closely with the 3 dissenting votes in the FOMC.
Reuters survey: 57% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to hike again in September
A sharp rise from 5% in July, with yen carry trade reversal pressures intensifying.
New developments in US-Iran ceasefire agreement
Trump announced all mines in the Strait of Hormuz international waters have been removed and/or detonated. Russian media reports that the US and Iran have reached consensus on ceasefire terms, including freedom of navigation through the strait. Geopolitical risk premium is easing.
Meanwhile, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of US goods starting September 8, escalating trade tensions.
📈 US Stocks & Tech Updates
1️⃣ Nvidia Q2 earnings: to be released early morning August 27 (Thursday, Beijing time)
Wall Street expects revenue around $92-95 billion, up about 97% year-over-year, EPS about $2.09, with data center revenue expected near $85.7 billion. Options market prices post-earnings volatility at about ±6%, corresponding to roughly $313 billion market cap fluctuation.
The Rubin architecture is the market's key focus: whether the "Blackwell cycle" continues or "Rubin can unlock higher growth" is the key to tonight's valuation re-rating. Additionally, Nvidia has committed up to $105 billion in credit and compute support for OpenAI's Ohio data center campus; accounting disclosures on financing obligations during the earnings call will be a focal point for investors.
2️⃣ All three major US indices closed higher overnight: Dow up 0.30%, S&P 500 up 0.32%, Nasdaq up 0.66%. Nvidia rose 2.1%, AMD nearly 5%, Micron Technology over 2%, Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 1.1%.
3️⃣ US Treasury repo effect was short-lived: 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.69%, 30-year yield rebounded near 5.27%. US debt has surpassed $40 trillion, reaching the CBO's forecast two years early.
💹 Crypto Market Snapshot & Tonight's Key Events
BTC surged then pulled back, currently around $78,500-$78,800
BTC briefly broke $81,000 yesterday, peaking near $81,300, now fluctuating between $78,500-$78,800, digesting profits at high levels, market awaiting tonight's data.
🔥 Event 1: US July PCE data (Beijing time 20:30 tonight)
The Fed's most watched inflation gauge. July PCE year-over-year expected at 3.6% (previous 3.7%), core PCE expected steady at 3.3%. A mild reading would reinforce rate cut expectations, benefiting BTC to test $80,000; a surprise upside could heat up September rate hike expectations.
🔥 Event 2: Nvidia Q2 earnings (early morning August 27, Thursday Beijing time)
Coming hours after PCE data release. If earnings beat expectations, AI narrative strengthens, boosting BTC risk appetite; if below expectations, tech stocks may face short-term pressure, potentially dragging BTC down.
🔥 Event 3: Jackson Hole Symposium (August 27-29), Waller speech (Beijing time 22:00 Friday, August 28)
Bank of America warns if Waller fails to clearly outline inflation outlook and Fed policy responses under different scenarios, 30-year Treasury yield could rise to 5.5% or higher. The key is whether Waller clarifies market confusion over Treasury intervention in bond markets—dovish tilt would weaken USD and benefit BTC; hawkish tilt increases short-term correction risk.
🔥 Event 4: Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (before September 15)
Market expects the bill to pass during September session, or new regulatory rules from SEC/CFTC.
💡 Xiaolong's Perspective
Tonight is a double tone-setting night. Timeline: PCE first (20:30) → Nvidia earnings next (early Thursday) → Waller's tone on Friday. First verify inflation, then assess tech sector strength, finally Fed chair wraps up.
BTC's drop from $81,000 to $78,500 is essentially a risk-off repositioning ahead of data, not a directional reversal.
The key lies in the results of these two events tonight and tomorrow: if PCE is mild + Nvidia beats expectations, BTC could retest near $81,500; if either disappoints, short-term pullback to $76,000-$77,000 to confirm support, possibly down to around $73,500, but the medium-term bottom structure remains intact.
$80,000 is the test line; $82,000-$82,500 is the 50-week moving average—only surpassing that confirms a bull market.As of now, $BTC has firmly held the $80,000 mark, with a monthly increase of nearly 28%, marking the best monthly performance since November 2024, showing clear short-term strength. The core drivers of this rally are a weakening US dollar, declining US Treasury yields, continuous net inflows into US stock ETFs, and concentrated short covering, with multiple positive factors resonating to push the market higher.
The support logic is clear: after the 2024 halving, $BTC's inflation rate is below 1%, ensuring long-term supply scarcity; compliant ETFs continue to bring institutional spot buying, deepening market liquidity, gradually shifting from a speculative asset to a major allocation asset.
Short-term resistance is also evident: $83,000 is a strong resistance level at the annual moving average, with a large amount of trapped positions and short-term profit-taking piled up above, and the upward momentum from forced liquidations has gradually waned. The market has entered a momentum vacuum period, making high-level volatility and profit-taking very likely.
Neutral trend projection: in the short term, 1-3 months, it is highly probable to oscillate and consolidate between $75,000 and $83,000. If ETF funds continue to flow in and the Federal Reserve's easing expectations materialize, a breakout above resistance to test new highs is possible; if inflation data rebounds, US Treasury yields rise, and $ETF funds flow out, a phase of correction will occur.
The medium to long-term trend is entirely tied to US dollar liquidity and US crypto regulatory policies, with no foundation for a sustained unilateral bull market.
Have you decided your next move yet? The July PCE at 8:30 tonight (core year-on-year expected to be around 3.3%, core month-on-month about 0.2%) has already been priced in quite fully by the market. The news from Bessent about pushing the TGA close to 1 trillion, combined with increased long-term bond repos, is indeed a clear liquidity injection—fiscal side actively suppressing the long end and releasing reserves, essentially an operation with a "fiscal version of Twist/QE" flavor, which is rare in intensity these past few years. "Greater than a drop, equal to sideways, less than a surge, but ugly will also first drop then pull back" is quite reasonable in the current environment. Wash (over at Jackson Hole) wants to keep policy space, Bessent wants to stabilize US Treasury supply and demand and long-end rates, and the tacit understanding between the two is quite high. As long as the TGA can really be used on a large scale, liquidity is not just empty talk, and the market's tolerance for "ugly data" will be somewhat higher than before.
Holding onto BTC and futures without guessing the short-term direction is also a relatively comfortable approach in this kind of clear situation. The liquidity will most likely be released; whether wealth comes or not is another matter, but at least don't get washed out by short-term volatility.
Just hold steady, and after the data comes out, see the actual impact range.On-chain dormant chips continue to refresh new highs, with BTC long-term holders firmly holding their positions, but the chip situation for ETH is completely different.
Recently, a large amount of staked ETH unlocking has flowed to exchanges. This portion of chips is not a complete exit but is waiting for a market peak to perform swing trading. In other words, there is always a potential sell order hanging above ETH, and with each rally, this portion of chips will be cashed out.
The selling pressure on $BTC mostly comes from external macro shocks; the selling pressure on $ETH largely comes from internal on-chain chips. For the same upward market, BTC is driven by long-term funds, while ETH depends on the strength of swing chip cash-outs. The same holding logic cannot be applied to both.#三星巨额回报遭抛售，市场为何不买账？
Samsung really didn’t play this right.
Just a few days ago, they rolled out the most aggressive shareholder return plan in South Korean corporate history, totaling about $80 billion. Normally, this level of news would be a nuclear-level positive, but the market slapped it down hard—the stock price dropped 8.7% that day, dragging the entire Korean stock market down with it.
The highest return in history, yet the market voted with its feet. That’s interesting.
The problem isn’t the amount of money, it’s how it’s being distributed.
At the end of the day, the market doesn’t care about what you say; it only cares if you can deliver now.
What’s the current moment? The AI arms race is in full swing. Your $80 billion is a zero-sum choice between investing in expansion or handing it out to shareholders. Being vague, the market sees it as you hiding something. This script has been seen too many times in crypto—huge positive news, but the price opens down because expectations were already priced in, and when it lands, it’s all “we’ll talk about it later.”
Here’s my take.
Samsung’s misstep is a reminder for all big capital sectors: distributing money isn’t about who shouts the loudest, it’s about who can actually deliver tangible value by shrinking shares to boost cash flow. $80 billion is just a number, but if the distribution method is wrong, the market won’t just reject it, it will vote with its feet.
BTC is currently volatile. Samsung’s issue has nothing to do with BTC, but it reflects a market rule—capital is repricing "quality." The same $80 billion, buybacks and cancellations versus verbal promises, make a huge difference in today’s environment. $BTC Let's talk about the unlocking events of the Hype coin. After all, it has hit an all-time high, and I've recently spent a lot of time researching Hype. I realized that although I previously held a large long position in this coin, my understanding of it was not comprehensive. While the coin is indeed bullish in the long term (ETF, buybacks, burns), in the short term, it is about to face significant unlocking events. There are 14.17 million coins unlocking on August 29 and 9.92 million on September 6. Interestingly, there have been this many coins unlocking every month before, but the actual selling pressure on Hype has been very small. I say very small mainly because the price of Hype has continued to reach new highs despite the expectation of monthly unlocks. This clearly shows how strongly the price of Hype is being supported. However, I have made some observations: 1. For the unlocking event around the 29th of each month, there is usually a continuous decline for about three days before and after the 29th. If there is no drop before the 29th, then a drop is very likely after the 29th; if the price mainly falls before the 29th, then after the 29th it may slightly pull back before rising. 2. For the unlocking event on the 6th of each month, if the 6th is a relative high point, the price generally falls afterward. My personal strategy: Before the 29th, since Hype has already risen significantly along with Bitcoin and continues to push higher, with ETF funds continuously flowing in and daily buyback amounts increasing, shorting is somewhat difficult The sectors leading the gains today are actually different slices of the same narrative: moving real assets and uncertainty onto the blockchain, paired with tools for pricing and hedging them. The targets, pricing, and entry points are all named simultaneously, which is no coincidence. But the nature of the capital must be clearly understood. USDT market cap has remained almost unchanged in 24h (-0.01%), indicating no new money is coming in; meanwhile, the entire market is down -3.72%, and BTC dominance has dropped to 59.2%. The conclusion is straightforward: existing funds are being pulled out from large caps and BTC and squeezed into these few narrow sectors—it's a relocation, not an increase. The fear and greed index rose from 46 to 65 over the week, with sentiment running ahead of money. Judgment: This is a blood-drawing rotation, sustained by sentiment rather than capital, and the volatility in these narrow sectors will be steeper than it appears on the surface. End signal (can be verified by yourself): USDT market cap continues not to grow, while BTC dominance turns upward from 59.2%—the existing funds start to shrink back, and this round is over. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
The boss has something to say
At the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions and negotiations are happening simultaneously.
The US has expanded financial and trade sanctions, including digital assets, gold, and shipping under secondary sanctions. Meanwhile, Qatar is pushing US-Iran talks, and Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary joint channel and joint mine clearance.
Both tracks are proceeding independently. Oil prices have chosen the negotiation direction for pricing, with WTI falling below $80. The diesel crack spread has been continuously falling from a high of $102, indicating the market is gradually digesting the tightest supply expectations.
The sanction logic hasn't disappeared; it is just temporarily suppressed by negotiation expectations. If the talks make substantial progress, oil prices will continue to fall, inflation expectations will cool down, which is positive for risk assets. If sanctions truly cut off Iran's oil and cross-border payment channels, oil prices will rebound again. $BTC $ETH $SOL
This game is still dynamically evolving, and the direction is uncertain. Bitcoin is fluctuating around 80000, all long positions have been closed waiting for a pullback. No heavy directional bets before PCE and Wash's speech.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck. and if the current momentum continues, many of those short positions could face serious pressure. This move looks very different from the previous rebounds. Instead of being driven mainly by leverage and a sudden short squeeze, the latest recovery appears to be supported by stronger spot demand and more sustained buying interest. Bitcoin has pushed back toward the $84,000–$86,000 zone, while market sentiment still hasn’t reached the extreme levels usually seen during full-blown retail FOMO. ThaOn the eve of the earnings report release, $MRVL surged to $240.38 in a single day, with capital pushing the valuation just below the resistance level in advance, as both bulls and bears hold their breath in a standoff before the event window.
The market rose 4.84%, approaching the $247 resistance zone above, with investors concentrating their bets on the upcoming Q2 earnings announcement.
The renewed risk appetite in the market is mainly driven by AI network demand and expectations of potential large custom chip orders.
This strong expectation-driven position buildup makes the market's tolerance for earnings guidance very low; any slight discrepancy will quickly translate into profit-taking pressure.
If the custom chip and network business guidance in the earnings report exceeds expectations, the stock price is likely to break through the $247 resistance and attempt to hold above the $250 mark.
If management adopts a cautious tone on next quarter's order outlook, concentrated profit-taking will trigger a price pullback, testing the $236 support level.
If the price falls below $236 and fails to recover in the short term, it indicates that the event-driven buying momentum has been broken.
The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours is the specific guidance on the custom chip business during the earnings call after the report release.
#三星巨额回报遭抛售，市场为何不买账？ #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元Tonight at 8:30 PM Beijing time, the U.S. will release the July PCE inflation data. The market consensus expects overall PCE to rise 0.1% month-over-month and fall to 3.6% year-over-year, with core PCE rising 0.2% month-over-month and holding steady at 3.3% year-over-year. The June data were -0.1%, 3.7%, 0.1%, and 3.3%, respectively. I have cross-checked the July CPI, PPI, import prices, and the Cleveland Fed's forecasts, and my judgment is slightly more optimistic than the market's. I predict overall PCE will rise 0.2% month-over-month, core PCE 0.3% month-over-month, with year-over-year figures around 3.6% to 3.7% and about 3.3%, respectively. The overall PCE won't be too far off. Energy prices fell 1.5% month-over-month in July, gasoline dropped 2.9%, which will pull the overall number down. However, core PCE has several easily overlooked items: asset management fees rose 6.5%, hospital outpatient services rose 0.9%, and their impact on PCE is more pronounced than on CPI. Air passenger fares fell 3.4%, securities brokerage and investment consulting fell 0.8%, which can offset some of the increase but may not be enough to push core PCE below 0.2%. The latest Cleveland Fed forecast also hovers around this level, with overall PCE at 0.15% month-over-month and core PCE at 0.25% month-over-month. The BEA only shows one decimal place; 0.25% is right on the rounding edge, so a slight change in the raw data could shift the displayed figure from 0.2% to 0.3%. If core PCE does not exceed 0.2%, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will most likely retreat, #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold? Many only see the excitement of BTC breaking 80,000, but fail to understand the deepest and most enduring policy bottom of this bull market.
This market cycle is not simply driven by capital speculation; it is a complete implementation cycle of the U.S. top-level policies gradually loosening restrictions and institutionalizing the acceptance of crypto assets. This long-term logic is the core foundation supporting this major bull market.
Looking back at the entire key policy timeline, it is a solid process of institutional liberalization:
May 2025
The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) officially removes the extreme restrictions from the Biden era.
Previously, all U.S. pensions and corporate 401(k) plans were forced to strictly avoid crypto assets. The new regulation abolishes the ban and adopts a neutral stance: neither encouraging nor prohibiting, leaving the decision entirely to institutional fiduciaries, completely breaking the official one-size-fits-all suppression.
August 7, 2025
Trump signs the landmark Executive Order 14330.
This formally includes digital assets into the U.S. alternative asset system, making them a legal investment category alongside private equity, real estate, and commodities.
At the same time, it requires the SEC and the Department of Labor to comprehensively review old regulations and reduce compliance litigation risks, clearing institutional obstacles for large pension funds to allocate crypto assets.
March–April 2026
The U.S. Department of Labor implements the latest draft rules, releasing the most critical safe harbor mechanism.
As long as institutions assess risks, liquidity, and fees through formal procedures, allocating crypto assets will be exempt from employee lawsuits and liability.
This step effectively opens a compliant entry channel for U.S. trillion-dollar pension funds.
Completing this entire process means:
Crypto assets have transformed from "risk assets suppressed by regulation" to "officially recognized, compliant, investable, and institutionally allocable assets" in the U.S.
ETFs represent visible incremental growth, but the loosening of the 401(k) pension system is the super long-term lifeblood for the coming years.
The policy foundation is now fully established, but large-scale corporate and institutional allocations are still gradually being implemented.
Short-term market movements depend on sentiment and volatility, but the mid-to-long-term trend has already been completely rewritten by top-level policies.
Understanding this main line makes it clear:
This bull market is far from over.
$BTC
#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold?
#Crypto market top-level policy dividends continue to be implemented👀 $ETH IS OUTPERFORMING $BTC BUT IS THIS REALLY ALTSEASON?
Ethereum is starting to show serious relative strength against Bitcoin.
The ETH/BTC ratio has climbed more than 32% from its June low, reaching a seven-month high.
That's an important development.
But there's a mistake I don't want to make:
ETH strength doesn't automatically mean altseason has arrived.
The broader market data still tells a different story.
Bitcoin Dominance remains above 60%, while the Altcoin Season Index has fallen to around 39, down sharply from roughly 67 at the beginning of the month.
That suggests capital is still concentrated.
Right now, the rotation appears to be happening primarily between BTC and ETH, rather than flowing broadly across the altcoin market.
And that's a major distinction.
🟠 BTC → 🔵 ETH ≠ ALTSEASON
If Bitcoin rallies and Ethereum starts outperforming, that's the first stage of a potential rotation.
But for a true altseason, we'd want to see that strength spread further:
BTC → ETH → large-cap alts → mid-caps → smaller caps.
We're not seeing that broad participation yet.
Yes, individual coins are pumping hard.
Yes, some sectors are showing impressive momentum.
But isolated pumps aren't enough to declare an altseason.
The real confirmation would be sustained outperformance across a much larger portion of the altcoin market.
📊 WHAT I'M WATCHING
ETH/BTC: Can Ethereum maintain its relative-strength breakout?
BTC Dominance: Does it finally start breaking lower?
Altcoin Season Index: Can it recover and show broader participation?
Altcoin breadth: Are more tokens consistently outperforming BTC and ETH?
Until those pieces start aligning, I'm staying cautious with the label.
The setup is getting more interesting.
ETH is clearly becoming stronger.
Capital is beginning to rotate.
But the money hasn't fully reached the rest of the market yet.
So yes, enjoy the altcoin pumps.
Just don't confuse a few strong performers with a confirmed altseason.
The rotation may be starting but the broad altseason still needs to prove itself. 👀📈Iran Sanctions, Talks & Crypto
Iran–Oman talks are reviving hopes of a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor, sending oil lower and easing immediate inflation fears. At the same time, Washington has expanded sanctions targeting Iran-linked networks, keeping geopolitical risk elevated
$BTC is holding near $79K, while $ETH remains around $2.5K. If diplomacy advances,falling oil and softer risk premiums could support crypto. But renewed escalation or tighter sanctions could quickly reverse sentimentHYPE at $83, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: from $50 soaring all the way to $83, retail investors FOMO shouting "100 is not a dream."
In the past month, it surged over 60%, and after Trump named it, it pulsed 11%-25% in a single day. There is no historical trapped position in the price discovery zone, and the candlestick chart looks textbook perfect. Weekly/daily bullish alignment, MA5/10/20/50/100/200 all below the price, the trend is intact, but the short-term position is extremely poor.
First thing: Trump named it, opening the CFTC compliance gateway.
Around August 19, Trump publicly stated that the CFTC is introducing Hyperliquid into the US in a "fully compliant, legal" manner. Once the news broke, HYPE jumped from 50-60 directly to 80+, with a single-day pulse of 11%-25%.
Hyperliquid is transforming from a "crypto wild card" into a "US compliant perpetual gateway." The market is not buying a license that has already landed but an option for "US institutional funds about to flood in."
Trump’s shout can push it up 30%, but you can’t expect him to shout every day.
Second thing: AQAv2 buyback has started, but the unlocking bomb is also coming.
Starting August 26, AQAv2 officially began accruing interest and directing towards buyback and burn, expected to convert a large portion of USDC reserves’ earnings into HYPE buybacks. Plus, the protocol itself has daily transactions worth billions, fee income crushing top-tier public chains, and 99% of fees going back to buyback and burn—triple buying pressure channels stacked, the fundamentals are indeed strong.
But on August 29, 14.18 million HYPE will unlock, about $1.2 billion in volume.
Historical post-unlock performance: -7%, +1%, -14%, mixed ups and downs but never "ignoring unlock and surging."
Third thing: Today there’s PCE + GDP, Friday Jackson Hole.
Today (August 26) US July PCE (Fed’s most watched inflation indicator) + Q2 GDP revision, Friday new Fed Chair Warsh’s first keynote speech. The macro backdrop is: BTC just rebounded from weekly and gave back profits at 78K-81K, USD, US bonds, tariffs all making noise.
HYPE outperformed the market this week, but its Beta is not low. Cooler PCE + dovish Warsh → surge to 84-87; hotter PCE + hawkish Warsh → first drop to 80, deep to 77-78.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
Trump named CFTC compliance entry to US, institutional channel expected to open
AQAv2 buyback started + protocol fee buyback, triple buying pressure
Weekly/daily bullish alignment, trend intact
No historical trapped positions above after breaking previous high 75-77
On the other side:
83 is already the historical high, short-term overbought + crowded chase
$1.2 billion unlocking bomb on August 29, countdown 3 days
Today PCE + GDP, Friday Jackson Hole, huge macro uncertainty
Funding rate not extreme but OI not low, dual sell-off near 83 is normal
Resistance above: 83.5-84 (breakout confirmation) → 85-87.5 → 90 → 97-100
Support below: 81-82 (ultra-short defense) → 78.5-80 (first pullback zone) → 75-77 (last trend long defense) → 73
Trading strategy
Conservative players (recommended):
Wait for pullback to 78.8-80.2 to stabilize (4H volume stop drop), light position long test
Daily close above 83.8 chase breakout, stop loss 81.5
Targets in batches: 85.5/87.5/90. Cut position below 77, exit below 75.
Short-term players:
Only do high sell low buy small swings at 83, range 80-83.8. Reduce position and take profit at 83.3-83.8, buy again at 79.8-80.5.
How to handle existing positions:
Cost below 70: reduce 30%-50% near 83, take back principal
Cost 78-81: prioritize break-even, move stop loss to 77.5-78
Cost 82.5+: either strict stop loss at 80.8 or reduce to minimal position and wait for unlock to reassess
Short positions not recommended to blindly short; if shorting, only as overbought correction: light short if rebound fails at 83.5-84, targets 81/79.5, stop loss 84.3.
Next 72 hours trading script
Cooler PCE + BTC holds above 79K: HYPE first surges to 84-86, may still pull back before unlock
Hotter PCE / hawkish Warsh: first drop to 80, deep to 77-78—that’s a better mid-term buy point, not a liquidation point
Flat data + unlock panic brewing: sweep back and forth 80-83, whoever chases gets hit
I remain bullish on HYPE mid-term—the protocol income and regulatory options are still there.
But 83+ unlock + PCE/Jackson Hole stacked together is a typical "good asset, bad position."
It’s not that HYPE is bad, it’s that you always chase at the highest point and cut at the lowest.
What is your HYPE cost?
At 83, do you dare to chase?
$BTC $ETH $HYPE NVIDIA Earnings Report: Cheap, but Not Necessarily Going Up
After the market closes tonight, NVIDIA will release its Q2 results for fiscal year 2027. Revenue is expected to be about $92 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share around $2.09.
In the past eight quarters, NVIDIA has beaten expectations every time, but the stock price fell after six of those earnings reports. In the last four quarters, it has without exception closed lower.
Beating expectations is just the baseline; the market has long moved beyond focusing solely on the numbers.
Valuation isn’t expensive, but that itself is a signal
NVIDIA’s current forward P/E ratio is about 24x, only slightly higher than the S&P 500’s 21x. The forward P/E once dropped to around 18x, which is historically rare for a company whose revenue is still doubling.
Among 82 Wall Street analysts, 78 have buy ratings, with an average target price implying about 50% upside. Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Bank of America have all recently reiterated buy ratings.
But the problem is: since August, the stock price has already rebounded over 12%, so the positive news may have been priced in. Goldman Sachs also clearly stated that excellent earnings alone are not enough to drive the stock price higher; additional catalysts are needed.
Cheap doesn’t mean it will rise; the past four quarters’ performance has already proven this.
What the market is really waiting for are Jensen Huang’s answers to four questions
1. Customer concentration: Five or six ultra-large customers contribute nearly half of revenue. In Q1, ultra-large sales were 37.9 billion, while other enterprise customers (ACIE) were 37.5 billion, but ACIE grew 31% quarter-over-quarter, far exceeding the ultra-large customers’ 12%. The market wants to hear evidence that AI demand is spreading to a broader range of industries.
2. $500 billion financing plan: NVIDIA has partnered with six major financial institutions to leverage third-party capital to provide financing for customers to purchase GPUs. Details are limited, and the market worries whether this truly expands real demand or is "circular financing" to maintain growth. The earnings call must provide a clear explanation.
3. Rubin supply bottleneck: The next-generation Rubin is seen as the next growth engine, but HBM memory shortages may limit deployment scale. Demand is not the problem; supply is.
4. Competitive landscape: AMD launched the MI450X, and ultra-large customers are also expanding self-developed chip deployments. Whether NVIDIA can hold its market share is a core variable for long-term valuation.
Any one of these four points falling short of expectations could trigger a 5% to 7% downward move — which is exactly what the options market is currently pricing in.
Short-term vs. long-term distinction
In the short term, post-earnings movement heavily depends on the confidence conveyed during the earnings call. Historical patterns suggest the post-earnings period may be a better buying opportunity than before earnings.
In the long term, AI infrastructure construction is still in its early stages, and NVIDIA’s narrative remains intact. The current valuation already incorporates a considerable degree of cautious expectations. If Jensen Huang can clearly address the four questions above, any short-term fluctuations may just be noise.
The core message is this: If you believe AI is only halfway through its journey, valuation is secondary; if you only want to play short-term numbers, history tells you it might be more prudent to wait until after the earnings report.
Tonight, the numbers are just the appetizer; the earnings call is the main course.
$NVDA #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 #Strategy increasing issuance to expand cash, BTC allocation rhythm under attention #BTC breaks through 80000 USD, can it hold the new threshold? Good evening everyone! Have you eaten?
$BTC BTC
Limited real utility, transfer and store of value are the only practical functions, no support for any application operation. Most of its price comes from psychological premium: global participants collectively believe it is a digitally scarce asset.
This premium comes from a simple narrative: fixed total supply, tamper-proof. Ordinary investors and institutions don’t need to understand complex technology, just accept the concept of “digital gold” to participate. The weakness of the premium is that it is not directly verified by real-world productive activities, no business can prove how much it should be worth. As long as the social collective belief remains unchanged, the premium will be maintained; once belief weakens, the premium shrinks rapidly. It doesn’t make money through functionality, it makes money through collective faith.
$ETH ETH
Has both real utility and psychological premium. Real utility is carrying all on-chain economic activities like DeFi, NFT, RWA, with many contracts running genuinely, producing real transactions daily, visible utility. Psychological premium comes from the imagination of a future “global decentralized infrastructure.”
The contradiction is that utility and token revenue are decoupled. Many transactions move to L2, ecological utility keeps expanding, but value captured by the mainnet is diverted, tokens cannot fully benefit from ecological growth. The market pays for current on-chain business and also for the grand long-term story. Once the long-term story is disproved, psychological premium will fade, but underlying real utility remains, so it won’t lose all value. Therefore, when ETH falls, it loses the fantasy part but still has real business as a bottom support.
$SOL SOL
Real utility focuses on high-frequency, low-cost transactions, with excellent on-chain interaction experience, but currently most utility serves Meme and short-term speculation. Its psychological premium comes from the imagination of a “new generation high-performance public chain.”
A large part of real utility is pseudo-demand created by speculation; as long as hype exists, transaction volume is high; when hype disappears, on-chain activity cools rapidly. Its premium heavily depends on the market’s imagination of a “new public chain disruptor.” Once the new narrative fades and no solid essential business remains, psychological premium will clear quickly. Compared to ETH, its real essential demand base is thinner, and price relies more on imagined premium.
The essential differences among the three: BTC is almost entirely consensus premium; ETH is a dual premium of real business plus future narrative; SOL mainly relies on new technology imagination premium, with a weak real essential demand base.
Currently rising, all three contain a large amount of psychological premium. The key to future differentiation: BTC depends on whether consensus can continue; ETH depends on whether ecological value can be transmitted to the token; SOL depends on whether speculative traffic can be converted into long-term real essential demand. If driven only by premium, once sentiment recedes, valuation contraction will follow. Seeing that about 1.33 million UNI have net flowed out from exchanges in the past 7 days, the simplest conclusion is "whales are buying." But if we continue to track the addresses, this conclusion doesn't hold.
In the same monitoring set, over 30 days there is a net inflow of about 1.81 million UNI, which is the opposite direction of the 7-day flow. Among the 7-day outflow, about 460,000 UNI follow a path of "external address receiving funds, then approximately equal amounts consolidated back to known exchanges within 24 hours," which looks more like pending recharge transfers and should not be double-counted as buying.
Looking at the large outflows over 90 days: 7 receiving addresses have collectively received about 48.53 million UNI, but the verified entity resolution rate is 0%. Two high-frequency Binance receiving addresses accounted for about 86% of the outflow, then dispersed most of the funds to over 1,200 downstream addresses each. They may be untagged internal wallets, consolidation, routing, or market-making infrastructure; currently, there is no evidence proving they are independent whales.
Another OKX receiving address has been observed to directly return about 3.03 million UNI back to known exchanges. This also shows that "withdrawal from exchanges" is only the starting point of the path, not a conclusion about holding positions. 🚨💥 "Jackson" Bomb: Treasury Dominance and the Financial Repression Game!
Sharp anticipation for "Wash" speech amid expected covert coordination with "Bicent"! Treasury's move to buy long-term debt to reduce financing costs, alongside the Fed backing off strict tightening, officially means falling into the trap of Financial Repression! 📈📉
📌 The Plan
Interest Siege: Inability to bear 5%–6% interest drives manipulation of bond yields and control over real interest rates.
Inflation Scenario: Allowing inflation to rise to erode massive government debts at the expense of purchasing power!$BTC & $ETH :IS HISTORY ECHOING AGAIN?
In 2022, $BTC fell sharply in June, rallied through summer, then made a final move toward $16K before the cycle bottomed. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC has surged back above $80K, while $ETH has recovered toward $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $2B in weekly inflows, while ETF activity has also strengthened around Ethereum.
Is this a genuine cycle bottom—or another powerful relief rally? $BTC & $ETH :IS HISTORY ECHOING AGAIN?
In 2022, $BTC fell sharply in June, rallied through summer, then made a final move toward $16K before the cycle bottomed. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC has surged back above $80K, while $ETH has recovered toward $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $2B in weekly inflows, while ETF activity has also strengthened around Ethereum.
Is this a genuine cycle bottom—or another powerful relief rally? 📰 【CZ: If Hyperliquid enters the US, it could open market space for more decentralized products and become a major positive for the entire crypto industry】
According to BlockBeats, on August 26, at the 2026 Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, CZ stated that Trump mentioned Hyperliquid and said that Mike Selig, Chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), will look for ways to allow the platform to enter the US market. CZ believes that if this progress is realized, it will be a major positive for the entire crypto industry. CZ noted that because he holds Binance shares, people tend to see him as a supporter of centralized exchanges, but his fundamental reason for entering the crypto industry is his belief in decentralization. He pointed out that some users choose Hyperliquid because the platform does not require traditional accounts or KYC.
CZ talking about Hyperliquid is quite interesting this time. Previously, he was always seen as a spokesperson for CEX, but now he openly supports DEX, completely reversing the narrative. The key point is that both Trump and the CFTC have named it, which shows that decentralized derivatives are not just hype within the circle but have entered the policy arena.
For us, the most direct expectation is that once the compliance window opens, more similar products may follow, expanding the imagination space for ecosystem interaction and airdrop expectations. But a reminder: after the topic heats up, the emotional premium often exceeds the actual landing speed, so before chasing the hype, first clarify whether you are betting on the narrative or the fundamentals.
Who do you think will benefit the most if Hyperliquid really enters the US? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $LINK Breaking news yesterday: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen officially announced the launch of the "Economic Abandonment Operation" against Iran, with sanctions covering five major sectors: digital assets, gold, shipping, aviation, and technology. A total of 60 Iranian entities have been added to the sanctions list.
Yellen used very strong language, calling it an "Economic D-Day," aiming to completely cut off Iran's economic lifeline. Any institution assisting Iran's fund flows will be removed from the dollar system.
However, the market's initial reaction was subtle: oil prices fell 2.3% that day, with Brent at $92 and WTI at $85, ending a six-day rally. The market interpreted this more as verbal deterrence without actual impactful implementation.
Iran's local currency, the rial, has already dropped to a historic low, at 2,020,000 rials per 1 USD; meanwhile, Iran controls 3%-7% of global BTC hash power, and its leading exchange Nobitex was sanctioned by the U.S. as early as June.
Today's new development — a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement has been reached, ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices continue to decline, with U.S. crude falling below $80, and BTC simultaneously retreating below 79,000.
In just one week, expectations have completely reversed:
One week ago, the market was betting on "sanctions escalation and risk hedging," with BTC at 64,000 and ETH at 1,800;
Now, with sanctions materializing and the situation easing, BTC has fallen back to 78,000, and ETH has risen to 2,420.
This is a typical case where good news turns into bad news upon realization. Current market expectations have become blurred, and capital games are complex, making it impossible to judge market trends simply by good or bad news.
$BTC $ETH $CL
#US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait navigation talks advance
#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level
Trader DogZong BTC surged to 81,000 and then pulled back: This is not the end of the trend, but the first real test of chip pressure
This round of BTC's rise was very fast, but I actually think the real point to watch is not whether it can immediately continue to hit new highs, but whether it can hold the breakthrough gains after the surge.
From the 15-minute chart, BTC peaked at $81,266 and then quickly pulled back, currently hovering around $78,500. The short-term cycle has already shown a clear cooling down:
The BOLL middle band is about 78,720, the upper band 79,138, and the price has fallen back below the middle band; MA5, MA10, and MA20 are converging again, indicating that the previous one-sided rally momentum is fading. The first support to watch below is $78,300–78,000, and further down is the previous low near $77,700.
But there is a very important distinction here:
This pullback cannot simply be understood as a "failed $80,000 breakout" for now.
Because the capital structure behind this round of rise is more solid than just a pure short squeeze.
In the past week, the US spot BTC ETF saw nearly $2 billion in capital inflows again, and on August 24 alone, there was about $338 million in net inflows. This means the initial rise was indeed driven by short covering and liquidations, but real spot capital has started to take over afterward. (CoinDesk)
At the same time, this BTC breakthrough of $80,000 also has a macro logic that was not obvious in recent months — the "dollar depreciation trade" is being repriced by the market.
US long-term Treasury repos, suppressed long-end yields, and a weakening dollar have attracted capital attention to both gold and BTC. In this environment, BTC is once again seen by some funds as a high-beta asset to hedge against fiat purchasing power decline. (Reuters)
So I won’t immediately turn bearish just because it fell back from 81,000 to 78,500.
What really needs to be observed are two levels:
First, whether around 78,000 can hold.
If there is repeated support here, or even higher lows form, then this pullback looks more like a chip rotation after a rapid rise, and the market still has a chance to retest 79,500–80,000, and then the previous high at 81,200.
Second, if 77,700 is effectively broken down, the nature changes.
Because this means the price has fallen back into the pre-breakout trading range, and then it can no longer be simply explained as a "healthy pullback"; instead, we must be cautious that the previous breakout above $80,000 has turned into a liquidity release.
What I care about more is not whether BTC rises or falls today, but a deeper question:
When a rally is driven simultaneously by short squeezes, ETF capital, and macro liquidity, the first wave up is often the fastest; what really determines how far the trend can go is whether, after the short squeeze ends, there are still buyers willing to continue taking spot positions.
What BTC is experiencing now is exactly this verification phase.
If 78,000 holds, I still see it as a strong consolidation;
If 77,700 breaks, I will significantly downgrade my assessment of this breakout.
$80,000 has been broken once; the next time it stands above it, what matters is not the price itself, but whether the market can truly turn it into support.
Do you think the area around 78,000 this time is washing out the chasing high positions, or is 81,266 already the phase top of this rebound? $BTC BlackRock just lowered the physical subscription threshold for $IBIT.ETF from $25M directly down to $1M. This is not a simple price cut; it can be considered an upgrade to market infrastructure because it lowers the barrier for institutions to participate in ETF physical subscriptions and redemptions, making market making, taxation, and asset settlement more flexible. Of course, lowering the threshold facilitates both capital inflow and outflow, so it can't be simply explained as a positive development. Ultimately, it depends on whether the product structure becomes more institutionalized and whether liquidity deepens. $RE $R is currently priced at $0.535, down 4.4% in 24 hours, but the trading volume has reached $318 million. Let's do the math: with 2.18 million trades spread out, each trade averages only $146, typical retail investors chattering and washing out. Large genuine orders are almost invisible among this pile. The top five on the same list all took hits tonight, with declines ranging from 3% to 7% lined up; this kind of drop is not a single-point explosion but a full market cash-out. $RE's top position is not due to buying strength but turnover density. Above 0.57, volume needs to increase to talk further; breaking below 0.54 directly targets 0.51. $BTC & $ETH ETF GROWTH PRICE DID MOST OF THE HEAVY LIFTING
U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs added roughly $23B in net assets last week.
At first glance, that number looks enormous.
But there's an important detail underneath it:
Only around $2.6B was actual new money.
The rest came from the assets inside the ETFs appreciating as crypto prices rallied.
Bitcoin moved roughly from $69K → $79K, while Ethereum climbed from around $2K → $2.42K.
That means net creations represented only about 11% of the total increase in ETF assets.
And I think that's the more interesting part of the data.
🟠 THIS WASN'T JUST A MASSIVE NEW CAPITAL WAVE
The ETF wrappers became significantly larger because the underlying assets became more valuable.
That's different from saying $23B of fresh institutional money suddenly entered the market.
The $2.6B of genuine net inflows is still meaningful.
But the market shouldn't confuse asset appreciation with new demand.
The next phase will tell us much more.
If BTC and ETH consolidate or pull back while ETF inflows remain positive, that would demonstrate that investors are still willing to allocate fresh capital even when prices aren't moving vertically.
That's a stronger signal of conviction.
🔎 WHAT I'M WATCHING NEXT
Price: Can BTC hold the recent breakout?
ETF flows: Does new money continue entering during consolidation?
ETH: Can its relative strength continue?
AUM: Does growth increasingly come from new creations rather than simply rising prices?
The rally has already made existing ETF holders significantly wealthier.
Now the question is whether new buyers are willing to keep paying these higher prices.
That's where the next real test of institutional demand begins.
$23B of additional ETF assets is impressive.
But the $2.6B of new money is the number I'm watching most closely. 📊The U.S. Treasury is repurchasing $4 billion of U.S. debt, starting from September 9 until November 4. The SEC has issued a regulatory framework. · The Treasury is effectively releasing QE on behalf of the Federal Reserve by repurchasing government bonds, which causes bond prices to rise. Whether the price is 100 or 110, the interest rate is 5%. People will be willing to take on risk investments. The yield on 30-year government bonds is too high, making corporate loans and tech company financing costs too expensive. Short-term positive impact for 2-3 months. What really determines whether BTC can continue to rise next is not this repurchase, but: 1. When the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates; 2. Whether CPI (inflation) will continue to decline; 3. Whether ETF funds will continue to flow in; 4. Whether the long-term U.S. Treasury yield can truly stabilize. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields ↓ → BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold usually tend to rise. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields ↑ → BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold usually tend to fall. · No action taken · No plans, never thought it would take off, not always prepared
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ Is there still room for growth in the storage sector? Yes, but the logic has changed—from broad gains to differentiation.
NVIDIA's earnings report tonight is the first key milestone. More than revenue, the gross margin guidance is worth watching: if NVIDIA absorbs the HBM cost itself and lowers the gross margin, it means storage manufacturers' bargaining power has increased; if it maintains 75%, the cost is passed downstream. Either way, HBM suppliers are in a favorable position. NVIDIA has locked in HBM supply for 2026–2027, and AI servers will see price increases of over 15% next year, which is a substantial positive for $SKHYNIX, Samsung, and $MU.
However, the market has already priced this in. After rumors that Rubin Ultra reduced HBM layers from 12 to 8, SK Hynix plummeted 19% in a single day, with Micron and $SNDK following—what's causing panic is not current profits but the possibility that high-end demand may fall short of expectations.
Apple's engagement with ChangXin Memory is a variable, but ChangXin's capacity is booked through 2027, making it difficult to impact the big three in the short term; long-term effects remain to be seen.
The probability of a price war is extremely low, as capacity is squeezed by HBM, and DRAM and NAND supply continues to tighten. The real risk is an excessively high "AI storage tax," forcing customers to cut configurations or switch to ASIC solutions, which would signal a cycle turning point.
Conclusion: Continue to be bullish on high-end HBM lines, but be cautious about marginal changes in mid- to low-end segments. NVIDIA's gross margin guidance tonight will be the short-term directional gauge.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
#英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 A $30T TAM makes an incredible IPO headline. Capturing it is another story. Anthropic's projected $190B-$200B revenue in 2028 would equal only about 0.6% of that opportunity. That's why I'd ignore the giant TAM and watch retention, pricing power and compute costs instead. AI can transform knowledge work and still produce disappointing returns if economics don't scale. The IPO shouldn't be valued on how big AI could become, but how much value Anthropic can actually keep. #Anthropic30TTAM BTC is once again hovering around 79,000.
There are about $6.4 billion in options expiring on Friday, so 80,000 is now a key level watched by both bulls and bears.
But I’m actually not worried right now.
ETFs have seen continuous inflows for several days, with another $314 million net inflow today. The funding gap for the year has already been mostly recovered. This shows that this level isn’t just being propped up by sentiment; spot funds are still coming in.
$BTC
#BTC80KHoldOrFold Iran Sanctions, Talks & Crypto
Iran–Oman talks are reviving hopes of a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor, sending oil lower and easing immediate inflation fears. At the same time, Washington has expanded sanctions targeting Iran-linked networks, keeping geopolitical risk elevated
$BTC is holding near $79K, while $ETH remains around $2.5K. If diplomacy advances,falling oil and softer risk premiums could support crypto. But renewed escalation or tighter sanctions could quickly reverse sentimentThe market is quietly shifting gears, but many people are still fixated on Bitcoin's absolute price, overlooking the finer details of capital flows. Bitcoin firmly stands above $80,000, a position not supported by sentiment alone but backed by real money from ETF buying. Last week, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw a combined inflow of about $2.6 billion, a significant amount in any cycle, indicating that institutional funds have not exited but are reallocating their positions. The more interesting observation now is whether capital is starting to spread from Bitcoin to the periphery. Whether Ethereum can catch this overflow is the first signal to judge if the market can sustain its momentum. Following that, tokens with higher elasticity like BNB, OKB, and BICO will also become directions for capital testing. If this rotation holds, it often means market risk appetite is heating up, rather than simply betting on a single track. ETF flows remain the most direct thermometer, telling us where money is coming from and where it intends to go. Changes in Bitcoin's dominance are also worth noting; if this indicator loosens, it often signals that capital is willing to take on more risk to seek excess returns. Ethereum's relative strength is the fuse that can ignite the entire altcoin market. Looking at these three together paints a relatively complete market picture. Of course, rotation won't happen overnight and may involve repeated tests and false moves. Capital flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins is never a straight line but a process full of probing and adjustments. It's too early to conclude that the altcoin season has already started Nvidia (NVDA. O) will release its Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings after the U.S. market closed on Wednesday. Wall Street generally expects the company to maintain strong growth, but investors are no longer focused solely on how much revenue can grow, but on whether AI capital spending can be sustained and whether Nvidia can reduce its reliance on a handful of hyperscale clients. The options market has already priced in significant volatility after the earnings report. Based on current option prices, traders expect Nvidia's stock price to fluctuate about 6% in either direction by the end of this week. Based on Tuesday's closing price, a 6% increase could push the stock price to around $225, approaching the record set in May at $236; A 6% drop could push the stock price back below $202. So far this year, Nvidia's stock price has still risen 14%, but has already fallen more than 10% from its May high. What's even more noteworthy is that Nvidia's stock price fell the day after the last four quarterly earnings reports. Morgan Stanley analysts recently stated that they are not optimistic about this trend reversing. How many GPUs can hyperscale customers still buy? In recent years, hyperscale cloud service providers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have been Nvidia's most important customers, purchasing large amounts of GPUs to train and run AI models. Meta and SpaceX also continue to build their own AI infrastructure. But as Nvidia's market value reaches about $5 trillion, customer concentration has gradually become a concern for investors. The market is not only concerned about whether these large customers will continue to purchase, but also how quickly they can increase capital expenditures. In May this year,A long player known for high leverage on the chain has recently pushed his position to the limit, this time with a total holdings of $129 million, unified the direction of going long, maxing leverage to 12 times, and clearly not shorting. The entire operation is transparent and open on-chain; onlookers watch the liquidation price from morning till night, and whenever the market pulls back, the comment section is worried for him; Once the market strengthens, it is filled with cheers and applause. This player is known in the circle as a bull warrior, with a clear position structure: main bets are ETH, followed by BTC, paired with recently popular tokens like HYPE and PUMP, following a strategy of large coins seeking stability and smaller coins seeking flexibility. His previous performance was quite impressive; in the previous rally, he used $150,000 in principal to reach $11.15 million, nearly a 75-fold return, which greatly offset the losses from the past ten months. From the perspective of the capital curve, this is a typical all-or-nothing strategy to return profit, rather than stable compound interest. This style is highly attractive in a bull market atmosphere and can easily lead to the illusion that "heavy positions can guarantee success." But veteran players who have experienced multiple leverage cycles know that the biggest fear with high-leverage positions is not misreading the direction, but a sudden intraday spike. Even if the direction is ultimately correct, as long as the price first touches the liquidation line, the outcome of everything reversing to zero will not change due to subsequent rebounds. A classic script circulates among this player's fan base: when the market is good, he is the on-chain war god; when the market suddenly drops, he sells his NFTs to supplement the margin. This tactic has been countered in the past