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If the ones who survive a bull market are never the fiercest wave-chasers, but those who "lock in," then are you counting floating gains or principal now? Last night, I stared at BTC, testing back and forth around 80,000 yuan. The green on the screen seemed to beckon, but I had only one thought: Who is buying and selling at this position? The derivative structure gave me the answer. The funding rate started to get sticky again; long positions in perpetual contracts piled up thicker than pancakes at breakfast shops, yet the basis of delivery contracts refused to widen. What does this mean? It shows that most people in the market have "borrowed courage"—they use leverage to go long, but not with real money to go up; they bet that someone else will buy in the next second. The biggest fear of this structure is not a drop, but a sideways movement. Once the price stops, time starts to eat up those highly leveraged positions, and then a chain reaction follows. I've made the same mistake before. Holding triple floating gains, always thinking, "Wait for one more bullish candle," only to lose 70% of your profits with a single bearish candlestick. That feeling is like carefully nurturing a flower, about to bloom, only to be completely reverted to its original state by a single frost. Later, I understood: the trend is responsible for making money, while the discipline is responsible for keeping your money. Both are indispensable. Now my positions are divided into three parts: the bottom position is stuck and can't be held, the trend position follows the moving average, and the hot money position is decisively closed at the target level. Even if one mistake is made, it won't hurt you badly. Going all-in and getting rich overnight is the most poisonous soup in a bull market—when prices rise, everyone is a stock god, but one pullback leaves you bare-chestedThe most beguiling aspect of a bull market has never been the erratic jumps of the candlestick charts, but the collective hysteria of "this time the fundamentals have truly been restructured."
When prices repeatedly break previous highs, the market spontaneously crafts a perfectly coherent grand narrative—halving supply shocks, the ultimate form of digital gold, sovereign wealth funds entering the scene. Each logic is so airtight that it becomes irrefutable, as if the old era's valuation framework has been completely invalidated. But the most costly lesson in financial history is always: paradigm shifts can accelerate but cannot eliminate cycles; human nature can be repackaged but never rewritten.
Below are the most dangerous "new consensuses" in the current market and their cracks:
The "security illusion" of BTC: The narrative of institutionalization and national strategic reserves creates an illusion in the market of "only rising, never falling." But the real hidden risk lies in the subtle changes in the on-chain behavior of these "long-term holders" when macro liquidity tightens systemically—the premium turning point of Grayscale Trust, the shortening dormancy of whale addresses; these are more genuine supply and demand signals than halving. BTC is no longer a purely rebellious asset; it is becoming a slave to macro factors, just with a lagging response by half.
The "performance worship" of SOL: Firedancer's breakthrough has driven the market into a frenzy over million TPS, but high performance itself is not a moat; low cost is the double-edged sword.
The true vastness of the stars and sea is not in the whitepaper roadmap but in those IDE screens still lit late at night when the market has forgotten it."Issuing 2 billion more but not buying a single one: The real ledger behind Strategy holding 6.7 billion in cash"
Strategy, holding 840,000 bitcoins, just issued and cashed out $2.01 billion, but the latest disclosure shows they didn't buy a single coin for a whole week, remaining inactive for two consecutive months.
This money is split into three parts: $300 million locked in a dead money account with interest rigidly paid over 2.8 years, $136 million used to repurchase severely discounted preferred shares to restore credit, and the remaining $1.59 billion set up as a brand new flexible cash pool.
The company's cash reserves have surged to a historic high of $6.69 billion. From blindly chasing highs with a one-sided long position, it has transformed into a market-making giant holding 4% of the entire network's chips in one hand and $6.7 billion in cash as a buffer in the other. When this flexible cash will be deployed depends entirely on market pricing. $BTC Iran risk now has two competing trades. Tougher US sanctions could squeeze oil supply, lift inflation and tighten dollar liquidity. Diplomacy could do the opposite by reopening Hormuz and stripping the risk premium from crude and gold. BTC sits awkwardly between both outcomes. Lower tensions reduce haven demand but improve the liquidity backdrop. The next move may depend less on geopolitics itself and more on whether sanctions o.#BTC80KHoldOrFold #WarshAtJacksonHole #IranSanctionsAndTalks $BTC is at 78,900 today, down 2%, but still up 21.8% on the weekly chart. It surged to 81K during last night's session but gave back gains this morning. Volume shrank by 40%, with $36.7 billion in 24h trading volume, a typical pre-PCE low-volume wait-and-see scenario.
The Fear & Greed Index dropped from 74 to 65, not panic, but calm after excitement. ETFs have had net inflows for 6 consecutive days, with $338M on 8/24 alone; institutions are still buying, but retail investors are hesitant to chase.
Remember on the day of the May CPI, BTC also surged intraday then pulled back, and everyone thought it would crash, but the next day it closed with a big bullish candle. I added at $67K then and was called a "bag holder at the top" for a week — which later proved to be a good entry point. Today feels similar; a low-volume pullback is not a bad thing.
In terms of trading, 78K is short-term support; if broken, look at 75K. Resistance is at 81K. If PCE is below expectations, we could see 85K this week. If PCE is above expectations, a pullback to $75K is possible.
PCE data comes out at 8:30 PM tonight, and Nvidia earnings at midnight — two bombs dropping together. Direction depends on the data, but position sizing must be controlled; don’t go all-in betting on direction. Short-term volatility is noise; the trend line remains intact.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #BTCETFInflowsSurge There is an event I think crypto traders should not just see as a Fed speech: JACKSON HOLE. The market is focusing heavily on: $BTC is strong. Altcoins are starting to get attention. Meme is making a comeback. Gold is rising. USD is under pressure. But behind all these things, there is a bigger issue: The bond market is extremely tense. Long-term Treasury yields have climbed to the highest levels in many years, while the Treasury has to increase buybacks to support market liquidity in bonds Grayscale's Zcash spot ETF has officially started trading, recording approximately $14.8 million in trading volume on its first day. The launch of a compliant ETF has brought the long-dormant privacy sector back into the spotlight and sparked lively discussions about the long-term valuation logic of privacy assets.
Objectively, the $14.8 million trading volume on the first day represents a specific allocation and strategic interest from traditional compliant funds in the privacy sector. In an environment of increasingly stringent on-chain regulation and transparent audits, privacy exposure within compliant channels is indeed scarce. However, this trading volume mostly reflects secondary market turnover activity and does not equate to long-term net capital inflow.
Although the ETF has opened a compliant entry point for incremental fiat capital, the true determinant of ZEC's long-term value ceiling remains the actual usage demand of its underlying privacy network and the health of its economic model. Without support from real on-chain application scenarios, relying solely on external liquidity injections is unlikely to sustain an independent long-term bull market.
Regarding the layout of the privacy sector, ZEC, with the orthodoxy of zero-knowledge proofs and the backing of compliant products, possesses excellent macro hedging properties. But from a medium- to long-term perspective, improvements in the project's own token release mechanism and the prosperity of its ecosystem remain my primary considerations in evaluating its core value.
After the listing of the ZEC spot ETF, do you think the real driver for the privacy sector to enter a long bull market will be compliant funds or ecosystem applications?
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 NVIDIA has once again invested in binding Perplexity, locking in hardware shipments in the short term, but shifting the market focus to the systemic risk that downstream application profits cannot keep up with computing power consumption. $NVDA consequently faces pressure from a risk appetite repricing.
The capital closed loop has strengthened the stickiness of computing power procurement, but the circulation of funds within the chain has squeezed the willingness of external risk capital to enter. Speculative longs are concentrated in chip leaders, causing the trading side's sensitivity to inflation resilience and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path to rise significantly.
In terms of driver priority, the strength of cash flow monetization on the AI application side ranks first, followed by the capital expenditure return speed of chip giants, and lastly macro liquidity supply. The application layer lacking self-sustaining ability will accelerate the consumption of long positions' patience.
In the bullish scenario, if subscription revenue growth of applications like Perplexity surpasses the growth of computing power rental costs, and inflation falls leading to rising expectations of rate cuts, funds will push risk appetite higher again. At this time, it is necessary to observe the improvement in the ratio of end-user payment willingness to per-customer computing power cost; if the ratio stops falling and stabilizes, the long structure will continue.
The failure signal of the bullish scenario is when the monetization growth rate on the application side continuously falls below the 20% threshold of computing power cost growth. Once this ratio breaks down, the profitability logic of the capital closed loop will be directly broken.
In the bearish scenario, if application commercialization cannot keep up with hardware amortization, market doubts about the cycle injection model will turn into position exits. Persistently high inflation exacerbates valuation compression, and $NVDA will experience concentrated liquidation along with the tech stock sector.
The failure signal of the bearish scenario is when downstream leaders announce sustainable third-party positive cash flow. Unless large-scale follow-up capital injections from related parties occur, longs will recover risk discounts.
The failure condition of the current fragile market balance lies in macro inflation data rising beyond expectations or the first signs of GPU procurement order cancellations. Any unilateral capital flow break will immediately trigger a volatility spike.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on monitoring the growth slope of Perplexity's end traffic and computing power calls, while also paying attention to pricing changes in the high-yield bond market for tech unicorn financing spreads.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键$ANTHROPIC $30 trillion market? Even bragging needs a draft first
This Pre-IPO coin ANTHROPIC was pulled from 140 to 200, with RSI6 reaching 88, seriously overbought. A bunch of people are shouting to rush in, but I'll give my conclusion first: I'm not chasing.
Look at what the news says: Anthropic's pie is called a “$30 trillion total addressable market,” even bigger than SpaceX's $28.5 trillion. But! The expected revenue in 2028 is only about $190-200 billion. A $30 trillion market, you only take a small bite, what does the rest have to do with me?
To put it bluntly, TAM is just a math game—"If the whole world uses my product, I can earn this much." The question is, why you? Not enough computing power to beat OpenAI, Fable 5 is considered too expensive and hard to sell, employees are still preparing to strike. Valuation is $2 trillion, annual revenue $11.6 billion, this pie is drawn rounder than the moon.
An old trick in crypto: a trillion-dollar track doesn’t mean a certain coin is worth a trillion dollars. A high ceiling doesn’t mean you can climb there.
At this position, chasing longs risks being the bag holder, shorting risks a short squeeze. Wait until the IPO news really lands before deciding. #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Tonight (8/26 after market close) Nvidia releases its earnings report, and the entire storage chain is holding its breath. $xNVDA closed yesterday at 213.05,
+2.19%, ending a 7-day losing streak, with a market cap of 5.16 trillion dollars and a PE of 32.6. The market's pricing: revenue guidance around 91 billion dollars, EPS consensus 2.07, options implied volatility 5.4%, market cap fluctuation about 280 billion dollars.
Tracing up the supply chain: $xSNDK SanDisk closed at 1,480.77, -0.83%, PE 20, EPS 73.76, the NAND price increase logic still holds;
$xSKHY Hynix (000660) today reported 1,689,000 Korean won, +0.66%, climbing out of the -3.4% dip on 8/24. Gartner raised this year's semiconductor revenue forecast to 1.6 trillion dollars, with 2026 NAND revenue +372%, DRAM +247%, storage is the strongest downstream sector in this AI cycle.
The linkage is very clear: NVDA's high gross margin guidance → indicates it is not being hit by storage price hikes → Hynix/SanDisk's pricing power is validated → storage stocks rise accordingly. Conversely, if NVDA signals cost pressure, the storage chain's valuations will be cut.
Tonight's earnings report is not just about NVDA alone; it is the pricing anchor for the entire AI hardware chain. Fasten your seatbelt. 📊 $SOL Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Shorts monopolized extremely in the short term, with a violent long reversal in 12 hours. The 24-hour momentum has significantly weakened from its peak, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $15.51 million and a concentration rate of only 33.2%, forming an inverted V-shaped trajectory...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $22,000 $2,500 $19,500
4 hours $262,600 $207,900 $54,700
12 hours $5,149,700 $4,729,200 $420,400
24 hours $15,510,900 $13,861,200 $1,649,700
In 1 hour, shorts dominated with an extreme 7.7x control, amounting to $19,500, a tentative suppression; in 4 hours, longs mildly reversed at 3.8x, surging to $207,900; in 12 hours, longs expanded to an 11.25x peak, soaring to $4,729,200; in 24 hours, longs sharply dropped to 8.4x, with liquidations of $13,861,200 versus shorts at $1,649,700, totaling $15,510,900. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for only 33.2% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration. Longs completed the main harvest within 12 hours, but the multiplier plunged from 11.25x to 8.4x in the following 12 hours, showing a significant exhaustion of short squeeze momentum. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; although the direction is biased long, the strength is weakening, so avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin briefly tested the $80,000 level before pulling back to consolidate; the US's "economic isolation" of Iran failed to push oil prices higher; and Anthropic is challenging the largest IPO in history with a $30 trillion TAM narrative.
₿ BTC Pullback After Breaking $80,000: The Short Squeeze Is Just Beginning
On August 25, Bitcoin once climbed to $81,257, marking the first return above $80,000 since May 15. It rose about 23% over the past week, the best performance since 2023.
However, the breakout did not hold—Bitcoin subsequently retreated to the $78,000-$79,000 range to consolidate. The catalyst for this rally came from macro factors: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term Treasury buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar selling and reigniting "devaluation trades." Last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October last year.
Analysts point out that this rally was mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can continue remains to be seen. Around $83,000, multiple resistances exist including the 365-day moving average, liquidation zones, supply zones, and overbought signals—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering.
🚢 US Expands Sanctions on Iran: From Military Strikes to "Economic Isolation"
On August 24, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a new round of sanctions aimed at "economic isolation" of Iran, calling the action an "economic Normandy landing day." The sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities listed. Yellen said the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government."
Meanwhile, progress was made in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman agreed to establish a temporary joint maritime corridor and advance mine clearance projects in the strait. However, Iran reiterated that reopening navigation depends on the US fully fulfilling its obligations.
After the sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92 per barrel. This is because the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks, and the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase, easing concerns.
🤖 Anthropic Rushes for the Largest IPO in History: A $30 Trillion TAM Super Narrative
AI company Anthropic expects to tell investors in its IPO prospectus that its total addressable market (TAM) exceeds $30 trillion, higher than SpaceX's previous estimate of $28.5 trillion. The company projects revenues of $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028.
The IPO target valuation is about $2 trillion, with fundraising possibly exceeding $100 billion—if realized, it would be the largest IPO in human history. The company may list as early as September or October.
A company only a few years old is challenging a $2 trillion valuation with a $30 trillion TAM narrative—the market is betting not on current profits but on AI's complete restructuring of the enterprise market. When Anthropic's IPO narrative resonates with Bitcoin's "devaluation trade" in the same week—global capital is simultaneously seeking new pricing anchors.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin pulled back to consolidate after briefly testing $80,000, and whether the short squeeze-driven rally can turn into sustained buying remains uncertain; the US shifted from military strikes to "economic isolation" of Iran, and oil prices fell due to "bad news already priced in"; Anthropic challenges the largest IPO in history with a $30 trillion TAM narrative, redefining AI valuation limits. $SOL contract longs fell from 11.25x to 8.4x, with cumulative liquidations of $15.51 million and a concentration rate of only 33.2%, showing significant exhaustion of short squeeze momentum. As devaluation trades, geopolitical games, and AI bubbles converge in the same time window—the market is fiercely repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 The full-scale outbreak of the altcoin season doesn't mean everyone can easily pocket it. The most striking signal on the market these past two days is actually the order of capital flows, not just the price gains. ZEC has increased twentyfold in one year, established forks like BCH and ETC have regained momentum, SOL, UNI, and AAVE have strengthened simultaneously, and even meme coins like WIF and TRUMP have been gently supported by liquidity. This is not a solo performance in a single sector, but a complete path 🧭 of capital penetrating layer by layer from core assets to peripheral areas. The truly noteworthy change is ETH, after catching up, firmly standing above $2500. The significance of this position is that it confirms that Bitcoin funds have not left but have found a new direction to take hold. Funds first flow into privacy and fork tracks, then spread to public chains and DeFi protocols, and finally even the most preference meme assets gain favor. Only when this transmission chain runs smoothly can the altcoin season truly stand. The only exception is ZEC, whose outbreak is mostly due to Grayscale's self-catalyzing ETF amendment proposal and has little correlation with overall capital spread. To judge the sustainability of this round, three progressive conditions can be observed. First, whether BTC can maintain its current structure without breaking down, which is the foundation of market sentiment; Second, whether ETH can continue to strengthen relative to BTC, as it directly reflects the willingness to spill over funds; Finally, the rebound of SOL and other L1 public chains#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level?
In late August 2026, Bitcoin made a strong rebound, once breaking through the $80,000 mark, reaching a new high since mid-May, with a peak around $81,000. This rally was mainly driven by continuous net inflows into the US spot ETF (nearly $1.9 billion in a single week), the US Treasury buyback plan boosting risk appetite, and massive short positions being liquidated. From the low point, the price surged over 25% in just a few weeks, quickly shifting market sentiment to optimism. However, after the breakout, the price quickly fell back to oscillate between $78,000 and $79,000, indicating that $80,000 remains a strong resistance zone. The short-term RSI has entered overbought territory, with clear profit-taking pressure. Whether it can truly hold depends on two key points: first, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in and push the price to form effective support above $80,000; second, whether macro factors (interest rate expectations, US dollar trends) continue to cooperate. If the weekly close stabilizes above $80,000, the next target could be $85,000 to $90,000; if it breaks below the $76,000 support, it may return to a consolidation phase. Overall, the rebound foundation is decent, but holding the level still requires volume and time confirmation. Investors should be cautious about chasing highs and manage risks properly. $BTC $CL Bearish. Russian media suddenly reported at dawn that the US and Iran have finalized the terms of a ceasefire agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz will resume free navigation. Market expectations for a genuine reconciliation between the two countries are rapidly heating up.
Impacted by this news, oil prices sharply gave back previous gains; meanwhile, US sanctions on Iran are less severe than market expectations, and Iranian crude exports will not be directly interrupted. Coupled with API crude inventories increasing by 4.2 million barrels, the continuous accumulation of inventories further suppresses oil price trends.
I positioned short on crude oil in advance yesterday, and the current price has reached the 80 target level, so I took profits and exited. I will wait for the official US-Iran announcement to be released before choosing the right time to re-enter. #美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元 $UNITREE
The current price slump is not caused solely by technical factors; there are three fundamental suppressions:
1. Founder "cooling down" statement: On August 20, Wang Xingxing bluntly said, "Currently, the overall efficiency of robots completing tasks is still lower than that of humans, and large-scale entry into factories, homes, and other scenarios still requires further breakthroughs," directly bursting the speculative bubble.
2. Institutional target price "gravity": Nomura Securities gave a target price of 370 yuan, and CCB International gave 269 yuan — while the current A-share price remains near 600 yuan, there is still a huge gap between institutional valuations and market prices.
3. Changes in competitive landscape: In the first half of 2026, Unitree humanoid robot shipments were about 5,900 units, surpassed by Zhiyuan (8,400 units), dropping from global first to second place.
Several key levels to watch currently:
· Upper resistance: 91.55 → 100 round number → 114–115 (equivalent to IPO first-day closing price, important resistance zone)
· Lower support: 88.50 → 86–88 (previous consolidation range) → 84.50–85.00 (Bollinger lower band area)
Summary
$UNITREE is currently priced at 88.85, in a stalemate phase between bulls and bears after the IPO frenzy has cooled down. Short-term moving averages are converging, and negative funding rates are extreme, indicating the market is waiting for a directional choice. The core obstacle to the upside is the huge valuation gap between institutional target prices and market prices; the downside buffer is the support band provided by the Pre-IPO cost range (50–85 USDT)$XAU Gold has not broken through the 4700 level for two days
Currently, resistance around $4700 remains quite strong, with speculative positions relatively high
Gold is very likely to enter a high-level consolidation in the short term, focusing on the 4700-4500 range
Yesterday it did not break below the 5-day moving average, closed with a doji, showing clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with 4600 temporarily holding support.
Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the PCE data and Waller's speech
Bull-bear divergence is increasing, with some funds taking profits and exiting
However, if 4700 is not broken, a deeper correction is likely needed before a strong rebound can push prices further.
If a correction occurs, focus on the 4500-4450 area as a buy zone; personally, if the bulls continue, the correction should not fall below this support level, as too deep a pullback is unfavorable for an uptrend.
In the short term, be wary of repeated tug-of-war near 4700; the core principle now is to be bullish but not chase highs, and to strictly cut losses.
The news remains mostly bullish
Fidelity Fund increases gold holdings — a core bullish signal
A Fidelity International fund manager has doubled gold holdings to the internal 5% limit over the past three weeks and indicated that if the dollar's safe-haven status continues to weaken, further increases to the limit are possible. The core logic is a bet on a Fed credibility crisis and the decline of the dollar's safe-haven status, reflecting mainstream asset managers' recognition of gold's medium- to long-term logic.
2. US debt credit risk — the core driver of this rally
The current gold pricing logic has shifted from the traditional real interest rate framework to a credit logic dominated by US fiscal sustainability and sovereign credit risk. The US Treasury has doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchase operations, but market concerns remain amid a $40 trillion fiscal deficit. The key variable driving gold prices is shifting from interest rates to dollar credit hedging and de-dollarization.
3. Geopolitical situation — short-term suppressing factor
Significant progress reported in US-Iran ceasefire talks, with consensus reached on free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude oil prices to fall sharply. The decline in geopolitical risk premium limits gold's short-term upside space.
4. Key events this week — PCE data and Jackson Hole Symposium
· Tonight (August 26): US July PCE data and Q2 GDP revision
· Friday: Fed Chair Waller's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium
· CME data currently shows a 60.4% probability the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, and a 39.6% chance of a rate hike
The above are personal views for reference only.
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 星球搜索帆啊交易员，他正在找群友借钱。自身债务已经因为爆仓和延期越滚越大。现在正在想办法搞钱This time at Jackson Hole, what Wash most needs to provide is not a hawkish or dovish statement but a reaction function that the market can understand. What investors are really worried about now is: what if inflation is a bit higher? What if employment is a bit weaker? What if long-term bond yields keep rising? If every question is answered on the spot, the market will fill in the blanks itself. And when the market fills in the blanks, it usually gets expensive. Bonds will move first, followed by the dollar and gold, and then BTC and tech stocks will be dragged along. I think the core of Wash's speech this time is not to soothe emotions but to draw a line. Which data will trigger a rate hike, which kind of financial stress will make the Fed step back—if these are not made clear, every macro data release afterward will turn into a guessing game. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 The U.S. government and capital markets talk big about the bill, but in reality, they are fully betting on AI. They are continuously channeling funds into AI and have also invested in companies like rare earths, Intel, and IBM, making banks' balance sheets carry more AI assets.
On the other hand, the U.S. government also wants to direct funds toward stablecoins. The inflow of stablecoins during the crypto bull market can boost U.S. Treasury demand and improve the current Federal Reserve balance sheet.
Increasing holdings of AI assets is the main task, bearing future development and returns. The secondary task is to issue policies supporting crypto to direct funds into stablecoins, using stablecoins to boost U.S. Treasury demand.
Therefore, once the bull market starts, I believe there is no turning back. Crypto assets have the responsibility to finance U.S. Treasuries, like a small horse pulling a big cart. If policy can drive hundreds of billions of dollars into stablecoins without spending money, entering U.S. Treasuries, this is the best solution and also the cause of this bull market. $ETH $BTC $SOL From the order flow, a large number of limit ask passive trades can be seen.
BN's CVD high points show weak divergence.
Then the aggregated CVD highs appear normal, but the lows show absorption divergence.
CB continues to buy,
but BN's trading volume is even larger.
CVD above 100K shows a weak state,
accompanied by a large amount of buy delta, corresponding to passive trades on limit asks.
Of course, some aggressive shorts also entered at today's low.
The buyers and sellers are in a tug of war; we just watch.
In terms of operation, the current market shows significant buyer weakness and extreme supply suppression when pushing toward the 80,000 high. Although the price once broke the critical level, demand failed to sustain effectively, causing many buy orders to be passively executed within the upper limit ask zone. Derivatives data and large capital flows both show clear high-point divergence. Overall assessment indicates that the market's momentum to continue upward at the current high is exhausted, with clear signs of chip distribution phase. The probability of a deep correction sharply increases, so the current strategy should focus on defense and locking in profits. Gamblers, saints, and those preparing to reset after liquidation, let's throw the research reports straight into the trash and break down tonight's Nvidia earnings report in gambler's language. Remember our traders' iron rule: don't read the news, watch candlestick charts; don't guess bulls or shorts, just guess Dog Broker. 🎰 Tonight's "Casino Rules" (Beijing time 04:20 tomorrow) The options market is betting on a 5.4% fluctuation ± tonight, meaning $280 billion is bouncing up. This isn't a financial report, this is the Macau turmoil. Let's not think about "value investing"—we just want to think about three things: which side to buy? When to exit? Where to cry if you get hit to cut losses? Nvidia will release its Q2 earnings after the U.S. market closes tonight (August 26), with extremely high market expectations: · Revenue: Wall Street expects about $92 billion, nearly doubling year-on-year · Earnings per share (EPS): Expected about $2.08-2.09 · Option pricing: Stock price fluctuates ±5.4% after the earnings report, corresponding to about $280 billion in market cap volatility The key issue is not "beating expectations," but "explosive growth." After Nvidia's last four earnings reports, its stock price has all fallen, though each time it has exceeded expectations. The market now wants Q3 revenue guidance to break above $103-105 billion and maintain gross margin around 75%—below this figure is "failing." Additionally, Goldman Sachs warned that if the three major catalysts are not implemented, the stock price may still fall; The market is also watching the progress of Vera Rubin architecture's fall shipments and the definition of the $500 billion AI financing plan. 2. Impact on Memory Chip Trends Storage ChipsNVIDIA's earnings report tonight presents a question that is no longer "can revenue continue to grow," but rather how much of this growth comes from independent, sustainable end demand. The market's expectations have already reached an awkward level: ordinary beats might still not be enough; what truly determines the narrative is whether the new generation Rubin can successfully take over, and where customers' money for buying chips is coming from. NVIDIA has officially confirmed it will release its fiscal 2027 Q2 results tomorrow morning Beijing time. Last quarter, the company’s revenue reached $81.6 billion, an 85% year-over-year increase, with data center revenue at $75.2 billion, up 92% year-over-year; the company’s guidance for Q2 revenue is around $91 billion with a 2% margin of error, explicitly excluding China data center compute revenue from the guidance. Meanwhile, the Vera Rubin platform is entering the next product cycle, and the market is beginning to test whether the transition from Blackwell to Rubin will encounter delivery, gross margin, or customer budget gaps. What I am more concerned about is another layer of change: NVIDIA is no longer just collecting chip payments at the end of the supply chain; it is also involved in data center, power, and customer financing arrangements. Previously, the company partnered with several large financial institutions to build a compute financing platform aimed at mobilizing over $500 billion in third-party capital over the long term; Reuters also pointed out that investors are questioning whether some transactions form a cycle of "NVIDIA helping customers finance, and customers then purchasing NVIDIA equipment." This cannot be directly equated with$OKB is now $114, down 3.00% in 24 hours, with a high of 118.22, a low of 110.88, a trading volume of 15.6 million, and an RSI of 77.8.
It is currently stuck in the historical resistance zone of 100–120, moving sideways without much change, having pulled back from 118 to 113. To break through, it must see increased volume.
But honestly, among platform tokens, I am most optimistic about OKB for these reasons: a total supply permanently locked at 21 million, directly comparable to BTC's scarcity; X Layer's TVL has grown nearly 10 times in half a year, surpassing 100 million; Circle has integrated native USDC; the NYSE parent company ICE has also made a strategic investment in OKX, with a valuation of 25 billion. This line is stronger than other platform tokens.
Risks must also be mentioned: 100–120 is a dense trading resistance zone, and rising futures positions indicate increasing leverage, so a real pullback could be severe.
My approach: strong fundamentals but short-term consolidation. Buy above 110, reduce positions if it breaks below 100, and watch for higher targets if volume breaks above 120. I see the range as 100–120. Holders of OKB need a bit more patience.A large part of this $BTC rally is undoubtedly driven by short squeezes.
Since the initial high on Friday, the actual accumulation has been quite steady, and spot trading volume has been relatively high.
Open interest continues to trend downward, and it seems no one is willing to push the price higher in this area.
If we continue to see spot inflows from (ETF) funds and the price keeps hovering in this range, that will be a signal worth watching in the coming days.
Shorts have been squeezed, so you need strong spot buying to keep the party going. There is spot buying, but the price also needs to keep following through, or the momentum will stall. Looking back at the storage sector now, I see that the significance of the story is no longer much. It is entering a sideways bottom zone to digest; fluctuations are normal, but the noticeable point is that it cannot go deeper, nor can it break out. SanDisk, Micron, Hynix are all in the same state, short-term influenced by capital flow and sentiment, but the story of AI, HBM demand, and the supply chain#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Folks, the Anthropic IPO story keeps getting bigger.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Anthropic is preparing to disclose to IPO investors that its total addressable market exceeds $30 trillion, even higher than the $28.5 trillion proposed when SpaceX went public. This figure represents the theoretical revenue potential assuming the company captures all possible demand, not an actual revenue forecast.
Correspondingly, Anthropic expects revenue of about $190 billion to $200 billion in 2028, which is only about 0.6% of this market size. In other words, the company only needs to capture a tiny fraction of this huge market to support the current valuation expectations.
But where are the boundaries of this figure? The reasonableness of the $30 trillion TAM depends on whether enterprise software and knowledge work demand can truly be restructured by AI, and whether Anthropic's model differentiation, customer retention, and pricing power can translate into real market share. If computing power and R&D investments remain high, can this vast market space support profits and cash flow, rather than just inflating the IPO valuation?
Let's wait for the public IPO documents to see the details. For now, don't get carried away by the $30 trillion figure. Share your thoughts in the comments on whether you think this TAM is realistic. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $ANTHROPIC First, let me mention a pretty interesting phenomenon. During the recent rally, the funding rate occasionally turned negative, indicating that shorts once dominated. But looking at the recent daily chart, since hitting the 58,000 low, the funding rate has basically been rising steadily, showing that long positions have been continuously increasing. This trend actually started quietly forming from the 84,000 peak. The liquidation heatmap shows a lot of liquidity stacked on both the top and bottom sides, which is quite normal given such a big rally.
More importantly, there's this—the 365-day moving average. Almost every bear market ends with the same script: the first attempt to break above it always gets rejected; there has never been a direct successful breakout. In 2019, it was the same—first rejected, then a real breakout; in 2022 it was even clearer—after being pushed back by this line, the price struggled for two whole weeks before a big drop followed. Now the price is approaching this line again, and according to historical patterns, it will most likely be rejected once more. However, if the weekly candle can close above this line, that would be a strong confirmation signal that the bear market is over. I will be closely watching this line in the coming weeks.
Additionally, the two-week MACD has formed a golden cross. This signal has appeared a few times historically—the last time after the golden cross, the price surged directly; the 2022 bear market bottom also saw the same golden cross, which then triggered a trend reversal; and in 2020, the price took off right after the golden cross. This signal doesn't mean an immediate rise, but it indicates a clear momentum shift on a higher time frame, which is worth noting.
Technically, we are still in a bear market. As long as the weekly EMA ribbon isn't broken and the 365-day moving average isn't firmly held above, we can't say we've entered a bull market. But we are definitely in a dangerous zone, getting closer to a turning point. My overall view hasn't changed—I am still willing to hold positions, and if confirmation signals come out later, I plan to hold all the way to new highs. I mentioned in an earlier video that the bear market bottom is most likely between 58,000 and 47,000. The 58,000 level has indeed acted as support, and if the price goes lower, I won't rule out watching several levels below.
We've talked many times before about the EMA ribbon—historically, there are often several false breakouts before a real one. This time, we have to wait for the weekly candle to close above to confirm; no premature conclusions. Yesterday's video also discussed the 200-day moving average, which always gets retested after a breakout—feel free to check it out if interested. Ethereum has been quite stable, holding above the high end of its range and doing fairly well. That's all for today; if you found this useful, remember to like and follow.帆啊交易员原名帆少，被一重大佬打假后消失，劣行有骗投资人钱亏光后跑路，骗粉丝开单赚手续费，制造虚假人设等。前几天又爆仓一次，爆仓前转走几十万人民币用来偿还部分债务，企图用剩余资金翻身结果又爆仓。目前在粉丝群向粉丝索要500u作为初始资金，号称亏了全赔。实则亏了就踢人。短期内帆筹集不到资金，证明我错很简单，就是他接下来一段时间都不可能用几十万资金开仓了，因为已经被许多人拉黑借不到钱了This surge is not a fundamental change but a pulse rally jointly driven by macroeconomic tailwinds, short squeeze liquidations, and a short-term cluster of ETF funds. 1. Macro trigger: The U.S. Treasury doubled its repurchase of long-term bonds, causing U.S. Treasury yields to decline and the dollar to weaken. The market initiated a "devaluation resistance trade," with Bitcoin and gold both pulled by capital inflows. This is a broad risk asset rally driven by liquidity easing, not a Bitcoin-specific fundamental boost. 2. Regulation is only an expectation, not realized: Trump's meetings with crypto executives and promotion of the CLARITY Act are merely friendly signals. Actual legislation and formal SEC rules are still far off. The current rise is a "premium on expectations," and if policies fall short, gains could be quickly given back. 3. The biggest driver: short-squeeze liquidations. A large volume of short positions accumulated during the prior long consolidation phase. After price started moving, cascading liquidations occurred, with passive buy orders pushing prices sharply higher. Weekly gains exceeded 23%, and within 24 hours, BTC long and short liquidations surpassed $110 million. This kind of liquidation-driven rally naturally lacks sustained momentum. 4. ETF funds are short-term liquidity, not long-term committed buying. Spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion in one week, a 10-month high, but funds are highly concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT, and much is arbitrage capital rather than long-term allocation. Once inflows slow, buying support will immediately weaken. 2. Current market real data (August 26) Current price near $78,500, with an early session high touching $81,200 before quickly retreating: -$TRUMP went long at 1.622 this morning, actually watching that the 1.60 whole number level didn't break and the 4-hour bottom fractal formed before moving.
Now at 2.259, the rise feels good, but the volume is a bit scattered at the high level, RSI has also pulled into the overbought area, and the short-term deviation is too large, so a sharp pullback could happen anytime.
Don't be greedy, reduce positions and watch the market, move the stop loss above the cost. Honestly: playing this kind of emotionally-driven coin, technical analysis is just an aid; what really saves you is the pre-set stop loss and the habit of halving positions. $BTC $ETH The key distinction here is between realized selling and overhanging supply. A team-linked address reportedly sold about 1.1M TRUMP for 2.94M USDC, while its roughly 3.837M TRUMP transfer to centralized exchanges is not proven to have been fully sold.
That uncertainty may matter as much as the completed sale: buyers must price both current flow and the risk of additional distribution. If token movements pause and volume recovers, the pressure may prove temporary; further transfers or USDC withdrawals would strengthen the bearish signal. Not advice, just analysis.
#TRUMPSellPressure📊 $SKHYNIX Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
After a short-term extreme monopoly by the bulls, their advantage collapsed, and within 24 hours the bears took over with a slight edge. Total liquidations exceeded $840,000, with a concentration as high as 74.8%, forming an inverted V-shaped exhaustion pattern...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $20,400 $20,400 $0
4 hours $88,600 $88,500 $147.54
12 hours $633,300 $313,000 $320,300
24 hours $846,300 $387,900 $458,300
In 1 hour, bulls monopolized (bears at 0), with a scale of $20,400, a tentative control; in 4 hours, bulls crushed with an extreme 600x dominance, volume soaring to $88,500; in 12 hours, bears slightly reversed with a 1.02x ratio, volume surged to $320,300, bulls and bears completely balanced; in 24 hours, bears slightly expanded to 1.18x, liquidations at $458,300 vs. bulls' $387,900, totaling $846,300. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 74.8% of the 24-hour total, a moderately high concentration—bulls completed most harvesting within 12 hours, bears suppressed with a slight advantage in the latter 12 hours. Bull multiples crashed from an extreme 600x to being reversed by bears at 1.18x, short squeeze momentum completely exhausted. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; although the direction has turned bearish, the strength is very weak, favor more watching and less trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin briefly tested the $80,000 level before pulling back to consolidate; US economic isolation of Iran failed to push oil prices higher; and Anthropic challenges the largest IPO in history with a $30 trillion TAM narrative.
₿ BTC Pulls Back After Breaking $80,000: The Short Squeeze Is Over, the Test Has Just Begun
On August 25, Bitcoin once climbed to $81,257, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. It rose about 23% over the past week, marking the best performance in 2023.
However, the breakout did not hold—Bitcoin then retreated to the $78,000-$79,000 range to consolidate. The catalyst for this rally came from macro factors: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar sell-offs and reigniting "devaluation trades." Last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October last year.
Analysts point out that this rally was mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can continue remains to be seen. Around $83,000, multiple resistances exist including the 365-day moving average, liquidation zones, supply zones, and overbought signals—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering.
🚢 US Expands Sanctions on Iran: From Military Strikes to "Economic Isolation"
On August 24, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a new round of sanctions aimed at "economic isolation" of Iran, calling the action an "economic D-Day." The sanctions expanded to five sectors including aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities listed. Yellen said the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government."
Meanwhile, progress was made in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman agreed to establish a temporary joint maritime corridor and advance mine clearance projects in the strait. However, Iran reiterated that reopening navigation depends on the US fully fulfilling its obligations.
After the sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92 per barrel. This is because the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks, and the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase, easing concerns.
🤖 Anthropic Rushes to the Largest IPO in History: A $30 Trillion TAM Super Narrative
AI company Anthropic expects to tell investors in its IPO prospectus that its total addressable market (TAM) exceeds $30 trillion, higher than SpaceX's previous estimate of $28.5 trillion. The company projects revenues of $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028.
The IPO target valuation is about $2 trillion, with fundraising possibly exceeding $100 billion—if realized, it would be the largest IPO in human history. The company may list as early as September or October.
A company only a few years old uses a $30 trillion TAM narrative to challenge a $2 trillion valuation—the market is betting not on current profits but on AI's complete restructuring of the enterprise market. When Anthropic's IPO narrative resonates with Bitcoin's "devaluation trade" in the same week—global capital is simultaneously seeking new pricing anchors.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin pulled back to consolidate after briefly testing $80,000, and whether the short squeeze-driven rally can turn into sustained buying remains uncertain; the US shifted from military strikes to "economic isolation" of Iran, and oil prices fell due to "bad news already priced in"; Anthropic challenges the largest IPO in history with a $30 trillion TAM narrative, redefining AI valuation limits. SKHYNIX contract bulls exhausted from an extreme 600x to a slight 1.18x reversal by bears, with total liquidations of $840,000, and short squeeze momentum fully exhausted. When devaluation trades, geopolitical games, and AI bubbles converge in the same time window—the market is fiercely repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视
NVIDIA has done three things this month that, when combined, suggest it may be building an entire AI empire, no longer just a GPU chip company.
NVIDIA is reported to have strategically increased its investment in the rising AI search star Perplexity. The hardware giant’s deep integration with downstream killer applications has once again pushed the "AI capital closed loop" into the spotlight.
The deep business logic behind this ecosystem investment strategy is worth pondering:
Chip leader driving sales through investment: NVIDIA locks in long-term procurement of its GPUs by directly investing in high-quality AI application unicorns, firmly building a software-hardware integrated ecosystem moat.
Disruptor challenging traditional search engines: Perplexity, with its real-time conversational search, is rapidly eroding the traditional search market. NVIDIA’s alliance accelerates the explosive adoption of generative AI in consumer and office scenarios.
Market scrutiny of the cyclical investment model: The model of selling chips with one hand and investing in customers with the other can quickly mature the ecosystem in the short term but has also triggered Wall Street’s rigorous scrutiny of the AI industry’s true independent profitability.
In this ecosystem battle deeply tied to tech giants, do you believe AI search will completely disrupt Google, or is this just a capital game before the bubble bursts?
$NVDA $GOOGL #英伟达 #Perplexity #AI搜索 #人工智能 #科技股 BTC surpasses $80,000, but the real main theme might not be "the bull market is back," rather the "devaluation trade" is restarting. On August 25, BTC stood above $80,000 again after 102 days, ETH returned above $2,500, and SOL briefly broke through $100. More notably: gold and BTC strengthened simultaneously, while Nvidia fell for seven consecutive days, and the Nasdaq remained under pressure.#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM According to Russian media citing sources from the Pakistani military and Iranian security departments, the US and Iran have reached a consensus on the terms of a ceasefire agreement, but the agreement has not yet been formally signed and implemented, pending further confirmation. This news is generally positive for the market, putting downward pressure on crude oil prices while benefiting global risk assets and the crypto sector.
Specific impacts:
1. Crude oil faces significant short-term bearish pressure. The US-Iran ceasefire will greatly reduce the risk of supply disruptions in Middle Eastern crude oil. The news mentions that the agreement includes free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran and Oman are preparing to establish a temporary maritime transport corridor. As a result, WTI crude oil briefly dropped to around $81, and Brent crude fell back to $88.6. If shipping through the strait stabilizes, oil prices are likely to further decline to the $75–80 range.
2. Gold faces short-term pressure as the risk premium from geopolitical tensions gradually fades, and earlier long positions are being closed for profit-taking. However, medium- to long-term support factors such as the US dollar trend, inflation, and fiscal pressures remain, so the medium-term fundamental logic for gold has not been completely undermined.
3. US stocks see clear benefits. The decline in oil prices will ease global inflationary pressures, further fueling market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, directly benefiting the technology growth sector. $BTC $SOL $ETH #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #OpenAI's Self-Developed Chip Debuts, Inference Cost Becomes Key
The boss has something to say
OpenAI has released a chip called Jalapeño.
Sam Altman posted on X: "We made a chip, and it's very fast." Not a PPT claim, but based on real test data.
Performance competes directly with NVIDIA
Jalapeño is an inference-only chip, not for training. The tests used SemiAnalysis's InferenceX public benchmark, running three models: GPT-OSS 120B, DeepSeek R1 670B, and Kimi K2.5 1T.
The data is solid. AI throughput per watt is 1.5 to 1.9 times that of the comparison systems, with end-to-end latency reduced by 28% to 59%. In high-interaction scenarios, performance is 2.1 to 4.1 times higher.
By model: On GPT-OSS 120B, peak throughput per kilowatt is 1.9 times higher than GB200. On DeepSeek R1, throughput per watt is 1.7 times higher than GB300. On Kimi K2.5, throughput per watt is 1.5 times higher than GB300. Third-party SemiAnalysis measured single-card throughput at 1459 tokens/s, while GB200 only reached 535, a 2.7x difference. End-to-end latency for Jalapeño is just 1.65 seconds, compared to nearly 6 seconds for GB300.
Power consumption is manageable
Rated power is 700 watts, with test load sustained below 550 watts. GB300 consumes 1400 watts. Although OpenAI normalizes power consumption by chip packaging, the direction is clear.
Jalapeño is equipped with 6 sets of HBM4 memory, totaling 216GB capacity and 15.4TB/s bandwidth. It uses TSMC's N3P process, with design to tape-out completed in just 9 months.
Cost is the real killer feature
Broadcom CEO Chen Fuyang said early tests show inference costs are about 50% lower than current mainstream AI GPUs. OpenAI handles hundreds of millions of API calls daily; cutting token cost by 50% saves astronomical amounts annually.
OpenAI is integrating the entire stack
Jalapeño is not sold externally, only for internal use. OpenAI is building a full-stack closed loop of models, software, chips, and data centers. Notably, OpenAI's own large models participated in the chip design process. AI helping design AI chips—once this loop is established, iteration speed will accelerate.
The second generation is in late development, and the third generation has started concept design. Small-scale deployment is planned by year-end, with expansion in 2027. NVIDIA remains a partner; the multi-vendor strategy continues.
Financials are a drag
Jalapeño's technology is impressive, but OpenAI's financials look less so. Q2 revenue was 6.7 billion, up only 18% quarter-over-quarter, compared to 35.7% in Q1—nearly halved. Operating loss widened from 9.3 billion to 12.3 billion. Anthropic's revenue in the same period was 11.5 billion, more than doubling quarter-over-quarter, with a slight adjusted operating profit. OpenAI's CFO said they plan to go public in 2027, possibly earlier if business accelerates.
Impact on crypto
Jalapeño confirms a trend: AI companies are shifting from buying chips to making chips, rapidly lowering inference costs. The lower the inference cost, the more widespread AI applications become, increasing demand for computing power. For the crypto market, AI infrastructure capital expenditure will continue to expand, and the capital siphoning effect will not stop.
Trading notes
Bitcoin is oscillating around 80,000, all longs have been closed waiting for a pullback. Avoid heavy directional bets before PCE and Wash speeches. Continue holding SPCX as a base position; wait for adjustments in storage and others before acting. NVIDIA's earnings report will be released early morning August 27 Beijing time, the most critical validation point for the AI industry chain this week. Those holding positions should set stop losses.
$ETH $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.Gold at $4660, approaching a three-month high, up more than 7% in a week. BTC is hovering around $79,000, after surging to $81,000 yesterday and then dropping back. The same macro environment, the same set of rate hike expectations, two "interest-free assets" with vastly different trends. What is gold rising on? What is BTC waiting for? Let's start with gold. Are rate hike expectations still there? Yes. CME data shows a 67% probability of a rate hike in December, and a 64% probability of no change in September. But the market no longer believes it. It doesn't believe rate hikes can solve inflation. It doesn't believe the Fed's hammer can smash through three walls—tariffs, oil prices, and AI investment. Gold is pricing in three narratives: First, inflation stickiness. PCE is still at 3.7%, target 2%, nearly double the difference. Inflation has been above target for over five years. Second, dollar credit erosion. U.S. public debt has surpassed $40 trillion. Richmond Fed President Barkin said: "There will be a reckoning, no one can tell you when." Third, debt unsustainability. IMF Managing Director Georgieva put it bluntly: "All countries need to solve their fiscal problems." JPMorgan predicts the average gold price in 2026 to be about $5243, possibly rising to $6000 by the end of the year. Gold is speaking with its price: rate hikes don't scare me anymore. What about BTC? BTC's "digital gold" narrative has been disproven too many times during liquidity tightening. In the 2022 rate hike cycle, BTC fell from 69,000 to 16,000. "Digital gold"?As of 15:00 on August 26 📊 Total SOL Position Volume and Long-Short Status Total Network Position Volume (OI): approximately $3.12 billion Long Positions: approximately $1.58 billion Short Positions: approximately $1.54 billion Note: Due to a dense concentration of high-leverage retail traders on the long side, the nominal total long positions slightly lead, with an overall intense long-short battle. 📉 Distribution of Holdings in Three Specific Ranges Low-Profit Accumulation Zone ($110 ~ $135): 45% Mid-Term Shakeout and Turnover Zone ($135 ~ $155): 35% High-Risk Speculation Zone ($155 ~ $165): 20% 🧠 Underlying Logic of Holdings Distribution Low-Profit Accumulation Zone Logic: As the largest portion of holdings, this corresponds to the bottom consolidation box where the price oscillated the longest and turnover was most sufficient during the market bottoming over the past several months. This portion mainly consists of long-term coin-margined longs, spot hedges, and institutional trend base positions. As long as there is no systemic market crash, these “dead long” holdings will not be easily relinquished during market fluctuations. Mid-Term Shakeout and Turnover Zone Logic: This range represents the most intense tug-of-war and oscillation center during the recent main upward wave and the breakthrough of previous resistance levels. Here, shorts trapped at previous highs cut losses on pullbacks, while longs who missed the initial move buy on dips, completing a large-scale transfer of holdings ownership. The density of holdings in this zone directly determines the support strength during market pullbacks. High-A $30T market sounds incredible. That's exactly why I'd focus on the smaller number. Anthropic's projected $190B-$200B revenue for 2028 would capture only around 0.6% of that TAM. The IPO case isn't really about how enormous AI could become. It's about how much Anthropic can actually capture while paying for compute, talent and R&D. Huge TAMs sell stories. Retention, pricing power, margins and cash flow ultimately justify valuations. #Anthropic30TTAM The US is expanding sanctions while negotiating Strait navigation; oil prices are giving back war premiums — the market is pricing in a "diplomatic window" rather than "military conflict"
The US has expanded financial and trade sanctions against Iran (including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping under secondary sanctions), but at the same time has shifted pressure from military action to economic blockade and has begun arranging for some diplomatic personnel to return to the Middle East.
Countries like Qatar continue to push for the resumption of US-Iran negotiations, and Iran and Oman are also discussing a temporary joint navigation channel, joint mine clearance, and subsequent management plans for the Strait of Hormuz.
The current market pricing is not about "whether sanctions will succeed," but whether negotiations can achieve a breakthrough.
The market no longer overreacts to "announcements of sanctions" — what truly drives oil prices is not what the White House says, but whether oil tankers can pass through the Strait of Hormuz smoothly. The diplomatic window period means short-term pressure on oil prices, but the enforcement strength of sanctions is the key variable for the medium-term direction.
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
$BTC $ETH That’s the potential market Anthropic reportedly believes AI could eventually address and honestly, that number is difficult to ignore.
But I think there’s an important distinction here: $30T TAM doesn’t mean Anthropic expects to make $30T. It represents the theoretical size of the opportunity if AI becomes capable of handling a much larger share of work across software, research, finance, customer service and other industries.
Personally, I find the idea exciting, but I’m also a little skeptical of numbers this large. AI is clearly becoming more useful, but there’s still a big gap between “AI can potentially do this work” and “customers will actually pay AI companies enough to capture that value.”
That’s what I’ll be watching. Not how big companies say the AI opportunity could become, but how quickly real adoption, revenue and productivity actually catch up with those expectations.
#Anthropic30TTAM $BTC $ZEC narrative completely breaks out — Grayscale founder bullish on ZEC to $8,000
Grayscale founder Barry Silbert believes ZEC's long-term market cap could reach 1/10 of BTC's, corresponding to about $8,000; meanwhile, ZEC just experienced a surge, hitting a high of $855, with derivatives 24H trading volume reaching $9.5 billion, showing heavy leverage.
Interestingly, he also predicts that US stocks might move toward 7×24-hour trading in the next 5 years, and competition from Hyperliquid could accelerate this process.
My strategy: regard $ZEC at $8,000 as a long-term narrative, not a short-term target to chase. Above $800, first see if it can hold steady; consider scaling in on pullbacks to $700–750; if it falls below $700, reduce leverage first. The ETF has officially launched ZCSH, and after the positive news settles, be cautious of "buying the rumor, selling the fact." Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the US July PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data will be released, which is the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator. For the crypto space, the core impact path is: PCE data → Fed interest rate expectations → US dollar and US Treasury yields → risk asset (cryptocurrency) prices. Market expectations and potential risks · Market consensus: overall PCE year-on-year 3.6%, month-on-month +0.07%; core PCE year-on-year expected between 3.2%-3.3%. · Main upside risks: July core PPI (Producer Price Index) surged 0.4% month-on-month (four times June's), with portfolio management fees jumping 6.5%, these components will directly feed into the PCE calculation, so there is a risk of core PCE exceeding expectations tonight. How will the data affect the crypto space? Scenario 1: PCE higher than expected (persistent inflation) · Interest rates and USD: weakens rate cut expectations, USD strengthens. · US Treasury yields: 30-year Treasury yield may rebound from 5.19%. · Crypto impact: directly hits the logic chain of "yield decline → risk appetite recovery → BTC aiming for $80,000." Bitcoin and altcoins may face selling pressure. Scenario 2: PCE meets or is below expectations (inflation cooling) · Interest rates and USD: consolidates rate cut expectations, USD weakens. · US Treasury yields: yields remain low or decline further. · Crypto positive: strengthens the narrative of "inflation cooling → easing expectations → positive for risk assets," which helps Bitcoin stay above $80,000 ZEC ETF officially launched, but the reality isn't as strong as imagined 🤔
The Grayscale ZEC spot ETF has been listed, with a first-day trading volume of $14.8 million. I think it's important to distinguish that having trading volume doesn't mean a large amount of real money is flowing in; there are both buyers and sellers.
Before the news came out, the market had already speculated in advance, pushing ZEC up steadily. Now the price is around $780, showing a pattern of rising sharply after the positive news and then pulling back.
I think the ETF can only be considered a bonus; the ETF concept alone can't sustain a continuous big rally. What really determines whether it can keep going up is the actual ecosystem development in the privacy sector. If there is no continuous capital inflow after the ETF, relying solely on speculation, the market will easily lose momentum.
The privacy sector has indeed regained market attention thanks to this ETF, but don't be blindly optimistic.
My trading thoughts: the current position is not suitable for chasing highs. Resistance above is at $860, and short-term support below is at $740.
For those already holding, you can take profits by selling some on rallies; for those not yet in, don't rush to jump in—be patient and wait for a pullback near support to look for opportunities. Going forward, focus on two things: first, the subsequent capital inflow data for the ETF, and second, whether the market can hold key support levels. No matter how good the concept is, without capital support, it's all in vain.
This is just my personal market view and does not constitute investment advice.
$ZEC #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 Citibank sounds the alarm! Gold's false fire VS Bitcoin's real gold, tonight is the life-or-death moment
Citibank just released a report bluntly stating that this gold rally is entirely driven by speculative futures funds, with physical demand not keeping up at all. The meaning is straightforward — the rise is fake, and any sudden disturbance could trigger a crash at any time.
Coincidentally, Bitcoin is following the same script right now. It surged 24% in the past week, once breaking through 81,000 dollars, but frankly, this is also driven by liquidity expectations + short squeeze + speculative funds piling in. The repeated sharp ups and downs at high levels these past two days are the best proof.
Personally, I think Citibank's words are a warning to us — markets driven by speculative funds come fast and go even faster.
Tonight at the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak. If he speaks dovishly, Bitcoin might surge again; if he speaks hawkishly, the dollar will rebound, liquidity will tighten, gold will fall first, and Bitcoin will most likely suffer as well.
Bitcoin now is no longer a pure safe-haven asset; like gold, it is extremely sensitive to macro policies and liquidity.
What should retail investors do? Don't chase highs or panic sell, control your positions well, and wait for the annual meeting outcome before making moves.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC HYPE just pushed to a new all-time high around $83, while Hyperliquid continues to attract serious trading activity. The timing is interesting. On August 29, around 14.18M $HYPE tokens are scheduled to unlock, worth roughly $1.2B at current prices. That represents about 1.4% of total supply and 2.7% of HYPE’s market cap. Nearly 47% of the unlocked tokens are allocated to insiders. 0 This creates a very interesting setup. $HYPE is entering the unlock with strong momentum instead of weakness. IfAnthropic tells investors a $30 trillion story, surpassing SpaceX's $28.5 trillion — how much of the AI "market size narrative" can be realized?
Three questions the market needs to verify as the public IPO filing approaches, investors need to judge:
1. Is the TAM reasonable: Does the $30 trillion cover the real demand for enterprise software and knowledge work?
2. Can the share be captured: Can model differentiation, customer retention, and pricing power translate into real market share?
3. Can profits be realized: With sustained high computing power and R&D investment, can the huge market space support profits and cash flow, rather than just inflating the IPO valuation?
Anthropic is telling a "bigger story than SpaceX" — but if 2028 revenue accounts for only 0.6% of the TAM, then 99.4% of the "potential market" will take decades to reach. Is the IPO valuation anchored in the imagination of the TAM, or the visibility of $200 billion revenue in 2028?
The $30 trillion TAM is Anthropic's "largest imagination" prepared for the IPO, but the market will ultimately ask: under the pressure of the computing power arms race and open-source models, what justifies you capturing this 0.6%?
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Good afternoon everyone
$BTC BTC
Among the three, it has the strongest resistance to external black swan events. The impacts can be divided into two categories: macro-financial shocks and internal industry black swans.
At the macro level, soaring US debt and a major stock market drop will drive BTC down, but institutional allocation provides support, making bottomless crashes very rare. At the industry level, public chain security incidents, DeFi crashes, and collapses of other coins rarely destroy BTC's core consensus. Its value does not depend on any specific smart contract or application, only on social consensus.
The cost is that when facing major regulatory negative news, it will also suffer sharp corrections. But as long as the consensus foundation remains unshaken, the probability of recovery after shocks is highest. When black swans occur, it acts as an internal safe haven within crypto assets, with funds flowing back from public chain assets to BTC.
$ETH ETH
Its resistance to shocks is moderate. It falls alongside BTC under macro shocks; internal industry shocks hurt it more.
If there are unfavorable SEC rulings, large-scale staking unlocks, or major contract vulnerabilities, market confidence in its infrastructure will be directly hit. The ETH ecosystem is highly coupled; large-scale DeFi liquidations or major L2 security incidents will transmit to ETH’s price. Its value is tied to the entire ecosystem; if the ecosystem has problems, the token will be sold off accordingly.
Its advantage lies in a solid developer community base; even when facing negative news, the ecosystem won’t collapse quickly, providing a foundation for recovery. But in every industry crisis, ETH’s drawdown is usually greater than BTC’s. It does not have safe-haven properties during crises and is treated as a high-risk asset.
$SOL SOL
It has the weakest resistance to shocks. Whether macro tightening or minor industry panic, its correction amplitude is the largest among the three.
It lacks institutional base holdings as a buffer; most chips are trading funds. No major black swan is needed—just a slight decline in market risk appetite or fading on-chain meme heat can trigger massive sell-offs. Even if on-chain technology is faultless, if market sentiment cools, the price will plunge sharply.
The ecosystem’s user base is highly speculative with limited loyalty; poor market conditions lead to immediate withdrawal. It has the greatest elasticity during positive news but almost no funds willing to actively support the bottom during risks. It lacks an internal crypto safe-haven function; when crises come, it is often the first to be sold off regardless of cost.
Summary: During crises, fund flow sequence: SOL is sold off first → ETH follows with declines → BTC acts as the internal crypto safe-haven absorbing funds. In good markets, the order reverses. The current market is in a positive expectation environment, with risks temporarily concealed; once external shocks occur, the differentiation among the three will immediately become apparent. $BTC and the overall market's recent pullback caused the total open interest (OI) across all contracts to drop about 5.1% in 24 hours to $55.56B; futures liquidations across the market exceeded $230M in 24 hours. This situation is what Ajian mentioned before: price decline accompanied by OI decrease, indicating some leverage is being actively or passively squeezed out; this is healthier than price dropping but OI surging, as at least the market is clearing fragile positions.
Looking at the continued net inflow into ETFs, institutional buying hasn't disappeared, so we can't say the rally is over. A truly dangerous trend reversal usually comes with ETFs starting continuous outflows; price breaking below the previous structural low; increased spot selling pressure; OI rising instead of falling; and funding rates remaining expensive despite the decline.
So friends, don't immediately treat pullbacks in a strong trend as bearish. I suggest watching three things first:
1. Can it reclaim $80K?
2. Can ETF inflows continue?
3. After OI cleanup, is spot buying stepping in again?
When the price is strong, such pullbacks are actually good entry opportunities, but the premise is knowing whether you are buying the dip or catching the falling knife #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 The market can be asleep one minute…
…and completely insane the next.
DOGE is sitting around $0.08612, showing +0.48%, with approximately $45.97M in volume.
That puts DOGE back on the radar.
WATCHING:
Support: $0.0845–$0.0855
Resistance: $0.0895
If DOGE holds support and volume expands, the next push could target $0.0895 and potentially $0.093.
But DOGE is not an asset I want to chase blindly.#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM