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$BTC I did miss out on part of this rally, but I have no intention of chasing the remaining funds all in at the high to make up for it.
Currently, I have converted only about 40% of my originally planned investment into BTC spot. Moving forward to accumulate chips, I mainly use two methods:
The first is selling put options.
I choose positions I was already willing to buy. If the price doesn't drop, I collect the premium; if the price drops, I take on the corresponding long exposure.
The second is a coin-margined grid strategy without market price entry.
When setting up the grid, I don't open positions directly at market price but place orders stepwise below the current price. If the market doesn't pull back, I accept earning a bit less; if the market does pull back, the grid will gradually build positions as planned. If it later enters consolidation, the grid can also accumulate some coin-margined returns.
I believe the current risk is still manageable because only about 40% of my chips have been converted into the target, and there is still some capital that can be invested in batches when the price drops to supplement margin and reduce the overall holding cost. Bitcoin can rally on institutional demand without every institution buying BTC directly.
ETF inflows are surging while Strategy just raised $2B without adding a single BTC.
That changes the interesting question.
The bigger institutional shift may not be who is buying Bitcoin.
It may be how institutions are choosing to gain exposure to it.49.6 million holders crush gold: Bitcoin completes generational surpass, trillion-dollar valuation gap closing
Latest statistics show that the number of adults in the United States currently holding Bitcoin has reached 49.6 million, nearly 21 million more than the 28.8 million gold holders. After five thousand years of historical accumulation, gold has been generationally surpassed by Bitcoin, which has only been around for a little over a decade, in the key dimension of population penetration. Nearly one-fifth of the adult population in the U.S. holds Bitcoin, marking its complete transformation from a niche geek toy to an irreversible, nationwide core asset.
The more critical competition lies in the extremely large valuation gap behind this. In terms of holder scale, Bitcoin has reached 1.7 times that of gold, but its total market value is only about one-tenth of gold's. This divergence, where the user base leads by a large margin but the market value is severely inverted, clearly reflects that the holder group mainly consists of millennials and emerging wealth. As tens of trillions of dollars in generational wealth transfer from the baby boomer generation in the coming decades, combined with the normalization of spot ETFs and pension channels, the transmission of adoption rate to capital density will unleash huge revaluation dividends.
Facing the generational inflection point where the number of holders surpasses gold by 21 million, when do you think Bitcoin's market value can truly catch up with gold? In your long-term asset allocation, do you prefer physical gold or digital gold?
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 The news about Nvidia server price hikes exceeding 15% over the weekend went viral, and many people's first reaction was "AI computing power prosperity continues, tech stocks will keep rising." But today's tech stock performance slapped the market in the face—many sectors plunged directly, tearing apart the "price hike benefit" narrative. This price hike is completely different from the logic in the first half of the year. 1. The essence of the price hike: not a demand explosion, but cost-driven The core reason for this price hike is the soaring price of HBM memory chips. AI servers require 8-20 times more HBM than ordinary servers, and global HBM production capacity is highly concentrated in Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. As the proportion of storage costs rises, even Nvidia, with its high gross margin, cannot withstand the upstream price pressure and can only pass the costs downstream. This is not an active price increase driven by explosive AI demand growth, but a passive increase caused by rising costs in the supply chain. The market interprets it as "continued prosperity," but it actually confuses "tight supply and demand" with "unlimited demand." 2. Transmission chain: from cloud providers to US debt, then to tech stock valuations The most easily overlooked impact of this price hike is on macro liquidity. 1. Expansion of cloud providers' debt scale Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and other cloud providers have been aggressively borrowing to expand computing power. Since 2026, the five major US tech giants have issued nearly $220 billion in bonds, far exceeding the $108 billion issued in all of 2025. Now, with server prices rising another 15%, it means their capital expenditures will continue to increase $BTC stands above the 200-week moving average: Will history really repeat itself?
BTC reclaimed the 200-week moving average this week, one of the most important bull-bear dividing lines in technical analysis. In January 2023, after BTC also stood above this moving average, it rose about 48% within 90 days, pushing from $19,000 to above $28,000, kicking off a nearly two-year bull market.
Now the signal lights up again—BTC started from $60,000, reaching a high of $79,800, with a weekly gain of over 30%. Unlike 2023, this round is supported by fundamentals such as continuous net inflows from ETFs, accelerated institutional allocation, and improved macro liquidity, making the driving logic more solid and not to be simply seen as a rebound.
But precisely because the signal is so clear, the market’s consensus expectations can easily lead to short-term overcrowding of positions. The 200-week moving average is a reference anchor for long-term positioning, not an excuse to chase gains. History will repeat, but not simply replicate. The signal is on; the rhythm determines victory or defeat ENA is close to doubling, PUMP surges, Meme coins and some DeFi tokens are recovering simultaneously, and the long-dormant altcoin market is finally becoming active again. However, from the perspective of capital and market structure, this looks more like a localized correction rather than the official start of a full altcoin season.
This round of gains is mainly concentrated in a few high-volatility assets, each with clear catalysts behind them, and capital has not fully flowed into small and mid-cap tokens. Meanwhile, Bitcoin still holds the core position in the market, and the overall performance of altcoins relative to BTC has not reached the confirmation standard of a traditional altcoin season.
More importantly, the market structure in this cycle has changed. Institutional funds entering the market through ETFs and crypto treasuries now prefer highly liquid, fundamentally clear leading assets. The past pattern of "BTC rallies first, ETH takes over, then thousands of coins soar together" is weakening.
Additionally, the number of new coins continues to increase, further dispersing limited liquidity, making it increasingly difficult for projects relying purely on hype to secure sustained funding.
Therefore, even if the altcoin rally continues to spread, it is more likely to be a structural bull market. What truly deserves attention are projects with real users, protocol revenue, product implementation, and long-term demand. An altcoin season may be brewing, but the era of "blindly buying and everything goes up" has most likely passed. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Today, I actually don't want to call this wave a bull market.
BTC has risen about 23% in five days, once surging close to $79,000, and in the past week, the US spot BTC ETF has seen a net inflow of about $1.9 billion. On the surface, price, capital, and sentiment have all returned.
But there's one issue that can't be ignored: the first half of this rally was mixed with a very obvious short squeeze. On August 19, when BTC broke through, over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within a single hour. In other words, a fast rise doesn't mean the new buying volume is equally strong.
So what I'm more concerned about now isn't "how much more BTC can rise," but the next two things:
First, whether the price can hold after the short squeeze ends.
Second, whether capital will truly spread from BTC to those coins that haven't started yet.
If later BTC just moves sideways at a high level while altcoins surge one after another in a day, then it's most likely still a sentiment-driven market;
If BTC stabilizes, ETFs continue to flow in, and meanwhile a batch of coins start to show volume increases, open interest slowly rising but prices haven't yet moved up, that's the stage I really want to wait for.
After a rise, anyone can find good news.
What’s truly valuable is finding assets where capital has already entered but prices haven't moved yet, before everyone is shouting about the rally.
These days, I’m not short of coins I want to buy; what I lack are coins worth positioning in advance.
$BTC BTC is oscillating at a high level near 77571, with the total market capitalization reaching 2.71 trillion. ETH is strengthening in sync, quoted at 2458, up 1.27%.
U.S. stocks closed higher across the board last night, with crypto-related concept stocks collectively surging; Robinhood soared 13%‑14%.
📌 Key Macro Events
1. Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech on August 28 is his most watched public address since taking office, with the market awaiting monetary policy signals. Institutions warn that if the tone is more dovish but falls short of expectations, it could further intensify the selling pressure on U.S. long bonds.
2. Basent confirmed that on the 24th, measures to isolate Iran's economy will be introduced, targeting Iranian oil purchases, fund transfers, and ship-to-ship transfers, accompanied by secondary sanctions threats. Iran responded strongly: once the economic war begins, oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf may be interrupted, with energy risks looming overhead.
📌 Industry News
Nvidia has notified some major clients that AI servers will see price increases, with most orders rising over 15%, mainly due to a significant rise in memory chip costs. AI infrastructure supply and demand remain tight, and storage chips have become the core bottleneck.
📊 Crypto Market Analysis
BTC current price 77571
Below 75000‑77000 range, long liquidation pressure has been largely relieved;
Above 78000‑80000, short leverage continues to accumulate, and once effectively broken through, it can easily trigger a chain reaction of short covering to boost the market.
The overall direction has not changed, only the pace of the rise has shifted, with high-level oscillation digesting chips.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
#BTC oscillates after rallying, ETF funds continue to flow in
#ETH oscillates after hitting $2500
Trader DogZong ETH surged directly from 1900 to 2550 in this wave, with a weekly increase of nearly 30%, showing much greater elasticity than BTC.
However, the rapid rise was followed by a quick pullback, dropping back to around 2400 after touching the 2550 high, which is typical after a short-term sharp rally that requires sufficient turnover to digest floating profits.
The data is very intuitive:
ETH rose 29.8% last week, compared to Bitcoin's 22.9%, significantly outperforming. On August 19, there was a violent single-day surge of 17.5%, pulling directly from 1917 up above 2250, marking the strongest rally since mid-April.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounded to 0.031, with funds starting to rotate into Ethereum's leading assets.
This round of gains is driven by three resonating factors:
① Ethereum spot ETF net inflow of $697 million in one week, institutional funds entering the market;
② Shorts liquidated $1.69 billion over three days, with forced liquidations acting as a turbo for the rally, creating a short squeeze;
③ US Treasury repo suppressing long-term yields, weakening the dollar, and overall risk assets receiving liquidity support.
On-chain data also supports this: ETH supply on exchanges dropped 15% within the month, staked total surpassed 42 million, reducing the actual sellable market supply.
But failing to hold the 2550 level also signals technical warnings:
Daily RSI hit 86, entering severe overbought territory; price deviated significantly from the upper Bollinger Band by 5.5%, making short-term chasing less cost-effective, naturally triggering profit-taking pressure.
Outlook:
The first resistance zone above is 2440‑2510; only by stabilizing above this range can ETH challenge 2550 and even 2750 again.
Key support below is 2210‑2130; a decisive break below would weaken the short-term trend.
Short-term, it is highly likely to oscillate between 2400‑2500 to digest positions.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
#ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500
Trader GouZongHyperliquid: From Perp DEX to a 24/7 Global Trading Market (4)
If regulatory relaxation progresses in tandem with institutional products, Hyperliquid's future potential will no longer be limited to crypto perpetual contracts. What the market truly focuses on now is whether it can further expand on-chain trading of spot, tokenized assets, and traditional financial assets. In recent years, tokenization of U.S. stocks, gold, commodities, and indices has become a key direction for the entire industry. If in the future stocks, commodities, indices, and other assets can achieve around-the-clock on-chain trading through compliant frameworks, Hyperliquid has the opportunity to evolve from a "Perp DEX" into a broader 24/7 global trading market.
This logic also explains why the market continuously compares Hyperliquid with early infrastructure assets like BNB and Solana. BNB initially relied on the Binance exchange and gradually gained platform ecosystem value as users and trading volume expanded; SOL was initially seen as a high-performance public chain and later formed a more complete network effect through applications, DEX, DeFi, and Meme ecosystems. HYPE follows a third path: first perfecting a high-frequency trading application, then building the underlying network and ecosystem in response to trading demand. If this model succeeds, its value source may not be "how many applications are deployed on the chain," but rather "how many global assets ultimately choose to trade here" $SOL @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 Don't rush to short $BTC right now, why?
The US spot BTC ETF is warming up, with a net inflow of $1.9 billion last week, and it has attracted funds for 5 consecutive days. The premium index has turned positive again, indicating that US spot buying is coming back.
But it's not without pressure; in the past few days, 53,000 BTC have flowed into exchanges, meaning some short-term money is taking profits, and selling pressure is indeed increasing.
However, the problem is that while there is selling pressure, the bulls are stronger.
The sell orders above the current market are not thick, and although weekend volume shrank, the bears have not launched a counterattack either.
So I tend to believe: before the news on Tuesday, BTC still has a chance to surge near 82,000.
If the news is positive, it will continue to rise; if negative, it will first consolidate and then pull back.
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 Hyperliquid: Real Revenue and Institutional Entry (3)
From a business model perspective, this is also the biggest difference between HYPE and many purely narrative tokens. Hyperliquid already has real trading volume and protocol fee income, and the market's main focus is whether this income can continuously flow back into HYPE's token economic system. According to relevant public materials, Hyperliquid has allocated a considerable portion of platform revenue to mechanisms such as HYPE buybacks. This means that HYPE's valuation logic is attempting to shift from the traditional "user growth × story" to "trading volume × protocol revenue × value capture." This is especially important for Crypto Native capital because the future market is increasingly likely to reward protocols that can truly generate cash flow, rather than simply rewarding grand narratives.
Another incremental variable comes from traditional capital entry. After Grayscale launched the Hyperliquid staking product, it quickly accumulated a certain asset scale, indicating that HYPE has begun entering the institutional product packaging stage. In the past, whether a token could be allocated by traditional investors largely depended on whether they were willing to set up wallets, cross chains, and bear on-chain operational risks; but once ETFs or similar securitized products gradually mature, these complex operations may be encapsulated. For traditional capital, what they may be buying is no longer an "on-chain coin," but an investment product that can be placed in a regular securities account. $HYPE @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 Is the U.S. policy quietly loosening restrictions on the crypto market? Strategy increased its holdings of STRC by $136 million last week, raising its dollar reserves to $6.685 billion. If this signals a liquidity release, the market may have already priced it in early.
1) Has the market responded? BTC and ETH rose by 2.11% and 3.13% respectively within 24 hours, with a narrowing price range, indicating short-term sentiment stabilization. However, whether this rebound stems from improved liquidity still needs verification.
2) Where is the real impact? Federal Reserve experiments show that over the past year, Bitcoin’s gains have significantly increased the probability of households holding crypto assets, indicating that asset appeal has formed path dependence at the household level. If U.S. stocks strengthen due to policy expectations, this could transmit risk appetite to the crypto market.
3) Both sides must be considered: A positive signal is that the U.S. economic isolation of Iran may reinforce the dollar’s status as the global settlement currency, enhancing its liquidity support. On the downside, if the U.S. tightens its participation threshold in the global financial system, it could trigger capital outflows and suppress risk asset performance.
4) What answers are we waiting for? Currently, no official data indicates that U.S. fiscal or trade policies have directly adjusted the crypto asset regulatory framework. Only if central banks increase crypto asset holdings or issue clear policy guidance will the market truly confirm the transmission path.
This is for informational and market scenario analysis purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.On 2025-08-24, it touched 4,958, today 2,491, exactly halving in a year. The daytime high was 2,509. I didn't rush to call a new main rally, nor did I treat it as a fake rebound. A 7-day increase of about 30%, 8 points more than BTC. ETH/BTC is 0.03178, +9.2% in 30 days. The exchange rate is adjusting. Money is also coming back: US spot ETH ETF had a net inflow of about 700 million USD from 8/17 to 8/21. The blood draw in May–June exceeded 1 billion, August is a behavior switch. Pectra and Fusaka have already landed. What is being bought now is not "about to upgrade," but the second phase of institutional return after clearing out. Contracts are not hot. OKX perpetual positions are about 1.4 billion USD, with a fee rate of +0.01%. It looks more like spot/ETF repricing, not a short squeeze. The right-side event timeline is the key: the upgrade climax is in 2025, clearing out in the first half of 2026, now is the return phase. BTC moves first, ETH follows, that's called beta. The full altcoin season won't just adjust the exchange rate. Don't compare absolute values with BTC's nearly 2 billion last week. Look at behavior: switching from blood draw to continuous buying is the signal of a market change. If the left column holds, I will keep an eye on $2400. The right column looks more like it, I won't add near 2,509. I won't chase acceleration near 2,509. If it can hold above $2400, then the repair continues. If ETH/BTC turns down and breaks recent lows, or ETCORE: When Recycled Narratives Replace Real Progress $CORE once again became the focus of early-morning discussion as a familiar piece of promotional copy circulated widely, reigniting optimism across the community. “Core supports Bitcoin’s revenue and the products built on top of it; CORE is the core of value flow and compounding.” But the question is: what is actually new? There were no major application launches, no meaningful ecosystem data updates, no significant liquidity growth, and no su$TRUMP meme coin risk warning, high vigilance is needed for such related tokens
On-chain data shows large token transfers from TRUMP-related team wallets. Yesterday, about 3,838,000 TRUMP (equivalent to $9.34 million) were transferred to the OKX platform; early today, the project address conducted unilateral liquidity additions, cumulatively disposing of 1,100,000 TRUMP and exchanging them for 2,940,000 USDC.
TRUMP and $WLFI both belong to meme coins under this related ecosystem. These tokens heavily rely on news and sentiment hype, have concentrated holdings, and the project team has significant operational control. Sharp rises and falls are common, posing extremely high risks for ordinary participants.
For tokens driven by strong personality narratives like these, it is recommended to keep distance. Going forward, any similar tokens tied to this family narrative should be approached with extra caution. Do not blindly enter the market driven by short-term hype.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC BTC在76000-78000美元区间反复震荡，日线重新收回关键位置，但上方80000美元压力仍然存在。 很多人的状态非常矛盾： 跌的时候想抄底，涨起来又害怕追高； 前几天BTC从64000美元快速拉升至79000美元，眼看别人赚钱，自己没有上车，于是开始寻找做空机会。 但这恰恰是交易中最危险的心理： 不是因为行情适合做空，而是因为错过上涨后产生了报复性交易冲动。 这轮上涨并非单纯情绪反弹。 BTC近期上涨伴随现货ETF资金明显回流，BTC、ETH ETF单周合计净流入约26亿美元，其中BTC ETF约19亿美元，机构资金重新成为市场重要买盘。 但这并不代表一定继续单边上涨。 当前市场真正需要观察： ① BTC能否稳定站上77000美元；
② 80000美元附近压力是否被有效突破；
③ ETF资金是否持续流入。 如果资金继续承接，突破80000美元并不是没有可能； 如果资金减弱，高位获利盘释放，回调同样会发生。 ETH近期突破2500美元，表现强于BTC，说明资金正在寻找更高弹性的资产。 但越强势的资产，波动也越大。 合约市场最大的陷阱： 不是看错方向。 而是在正确方向里，因为仓位过重$BTC has started to consolidate after recently surging to a high. But I think what's more worth watching than the price is the capital flow. Behind this round of rally, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has shown a clear net inflow again, indicating that this time it's not just the futures market squeezing shorts, but spot funds are also coming in. BTC rising a large segment and still maintaining at a high level is itself a relatively strong performance. I actually don't want it to keep skyrocketing every$BTC suddenly accelerated after months of silence, with a cumulative increase of 23% over 5 days, marking the strongest short-term rebound since the 2025 peak pullback. This rally is not purely driven by internal sentiment within the crypto market but is the result of a combination of macro environment, policy expectations, and short-covering.
Firstly, after the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, Treasury yields fell, easing pressure on risk assets; meanwhile, the weakening dollar and rising gold prices have also strengthened market attention on Bitcoin as an alternative asset.
On the policy front, Trump has once again pushed the CLARITY Act, and the market is beginning to focus on subsequent regulatory legislative progress. If the related bill makes breakthroughs, it could further improve institutional capital inflow expectations into the crypto market.
Additionally, after Bitcoin broke through its long-term consolidation range, a large number of short positions were forced to close, creating a "rise—liquidation—continued rise" short squeeze effect. However, this type of capital is unlikely to support the market for the long term.
Going forward, ETF capital flows will be a key observation indicator. Only if institutions continue net inflows can it prove that this rally is not just a short-term short squeeze but a genuine return of market funds. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 $ETH $小鹏集团(XPEV)$ 这份Q2财报，不能只看营收环比回升和综合毛利率站上20%。更值得拆开看的是：总毛利率改善主要来自服务及其他业务，整车毛利率仍停在12.1%；交付量同比几乎持平，亏损也尚未回到去年同期水平。 先看核心数据 Q2总营收为197.44亿元，同比增长8.0%、环比增长51.5%；其中汽车销售收入170.46亿元，同比增长1.0%，服务及其他收入26.97亿元，同比增长93.9%。季度交付量为103,295辆，同比仅增长0.1%。这意味着收入增长并非主要来自同比交付放量，而是服务及其他业务增长，以及季度内产品和交付节奏回升共同推动。 总毛利率改善，但整车毛利率没有同步修复 本季综合毛利率为20.7%，高于去年同期的17.3%，也略高于上一季的20.6%；但整车毛利率为12.1%，与上一季持平，低于去年同期的14.3%。公司解释，整车毛利率同比变化主要受产品换代影响。 另一方面，服务及其他业务毛利率达到75.1%，高于去年同期的53.6%和上一季的66.5%。因此，这次综合毛利率上行是积极信号，但不能直接等同于整车盈利能力已经完成修复，后者仍要看新车型规模交付后的单位经济CryptoQuant data reported that the recent breakeven point for new funds entering the market is around $73,000, with the short-term holders' cost basis at approximately $68,700.
This does not mean the price will necessarily find support there. Its significance lies in the fact that if the market pulls back, these ranges will test the patience of recent buyers. Holding the price is structural; continuous failure to hold indicates holding pressure.
$BTC #BTC #crypto Damn! $TRUMP, this crappy coin crashed again.
This morning I saw it dropped to 2.5, down four points straight away. A couple of days ago, someone was shouting everywhere that the president was about to issue a new coin, which pushed the price up to 3.6, but it was all nonsense, and now it’s crashed back to the original point.
Anyone with eyes knows it was their own people: yesterday, several related wallets transferred over 3.8 million coins to OKX, and this morning they sold 1.1 million coins at an average of 2.68 each, cashing out nearly three million dollars in stablecoins.
The total amount dumped on the market has already exceeded ten million dollars.
Trump’s son even came out seriously to clarify: the so-called new coin news is completely fake, don’t believe those scam messages.
Their tactic is: rumors push the price up, insiders sell off, and the price falls back down.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 As of August 21, the cumulative net outflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in 2026 remains about $2.91 billion; however, August alone has seen a net inflow of approximately $2.38 billion, making it the strongest month so far this year.
This contrast provides more insight than just looking at the $1.92 billion figure. It indicates that the sentiment of funds is shifting, but it has not yet fully offset the previous scale of withdrawals. It is still too early to describe this "marginal improvement" as a "complete reversal."
$BTC #BTC #cryptoThere are three major events tomorrow, boldly predicting if $BTC can still surge?
BTC is still hovering around 78,000, dropping from 79,500 to 75,600 over the weekend, then pulling back up.
Nvidia's earnings report, PCE data release, and Jackson Hole are coming up—three big events at once. The market likely won't pass through smoothly.
The Asian session looks weak today as well, with Korean and Hong Kong stocks dragged down by the AI sector. Samsung and Alibaba plunged, essentially signaling that AI is entering the cost calculation phase.
The current issue for BTC is strong bulls, but the 78,000–80,000 range has concentrated selling pressure and liquidity.
On one side, spot BTC ETFs continue to see inflows; on the other, profit-taking is moving to exchanges, with some already cashing out.
So I believe: 80,000 is not something that can be broken through casually.
If Nvidia beats expectations and PCE is moderate, risk appetite will continue to improve, and BTC could directly open up the 80,000 level.
If the data doesn't cooperate, a pullback is completely normal.
Personally, I will watch the 75,000–73,000 pullback opportunity and the 80,000 core resistance.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Last week saw a significant inflow of ETF funds, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the main portion. It is a fact that institutional demand has increased, and it is also a fact that the demand is concentrated.
These two aspects must be considered simultaneously. Concentrated buying pressure is very powerful when moving upward, but it also means the market is more sensitive to a few channels. ETF inflows are not a contract for "continuing to rise the next day"; they are just one piece of evidence within the buyer structure.
$BTC #BTC #crypto In the week ending August 21, the net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was about $1.92 billion, marking the strongest week since October 2025.
A single week's data can ignite sentiment but cannot confirm a trend on its own. What truly matters to continue tracking is whether the inflows can persist across weeks and whether the funds remain highly concentrated in a few products. A single record indicates demand has returned; consecutive records may indicate a change in demand structure.
$BTC #BTC #crypto Brent crude oil fell 1.87% intraday, trading near $92.6 per barrel, partially giving back the more than 5% gains accumulated last week. This round of correction is driven by four main factors:
First, the oil price had been continuously rising earlier, prompting profit-taking by bullish funds; second, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering, marginally easing market concerns over crude supply disruptions; third, the market is awaiting the U.S. to implement a new round of sanctions against Iran, and before these are concretely enacted, funds generally choose to reduce risk positions; fourth, the rapid rise in oil prices has pushed up inflationary pressures, causing the market to worry that high energy prices will suppress global consumer demand.
Overall, this adjustment is a high-level phase consolidation rather than an end to the upward trend. As long as core conflicts such as Middle East geopolitical tensions, transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions to Iranian crude exports do not see substantial improvement, Brent crude oil will continue to maintain a wide range of high-level volatility. $BTC $ETH $MU #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 On August 18, the storage sector experienced a violent sell-off, with SNDK and MU both plunging, leading many to believe the market cooled off. However, the capital data tells a different story: over the past month, DRAM still saw a net inflow of $2.08 billion. After the sharp drop, leveraged long products attracted capital, short products saw capital outflows, indicating funds were bottom-fishing storage during the big dip. The storage and crypto markets share the same pool of risk hot money; t💧 THE TREASURY JUST BECAME A CRYPTO CATALYST
The U.S. Treasury's expanded long-term bond buybacks helped push yields lower and improve liquidity expectations.
Bitcoin and gold responded strongly.
This is bigger than a BTC chart pattern: it connects government debt markets, yields, the dollar and crypto liquidity.
If financial conditions continue easing, risk assets could have another tailwind.
#Treasury #Liquidity #BTC #Macro
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap Trump announced the "most devastating economic action in history" against Iran. Last week, Bitcoin surged for five consecutive bullish candles, rising from $62,000 to $79,000, an increase of over 23% in one week. Spot gold climbed above $4600, hitting a three-month high. Then what? On Saturday, there was a flash crash, with 179,200 people liquidated and $882 million wiped out. Bulls accounted for 80%. Why? The aftershocks of the non-farm payrolls have not subsided, and geopolitical conflicts continue. U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 23,000 in July, with May and June data revised down by a total of 103,000. Employment is cooling down. But what about inflation? July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, with the energy index soaring 14.7%. Weak employment + high inflation = the Fed's biggest headache. The July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged with a 9:3 vote, with three members wanting a rate hike. The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 70% to 40%, but the shadow of "higher rates for longer" remains. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield once surged to the highest level since 2007. Borrowing is getting more expensive, and inflation is not coming down. Then Trump announced the "most devastating economic action in history" against Iran, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called the "economic version of D-Day." U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the "toughest sanctions ever" on Iran — targeting the goal of "toppling the Iranian regime." Iran responded? "Any country participating in the sanctions will be considered at war with Iran." They also threatened that if the economic war continues, not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data shows that on August 15, only 5 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz Don't be fooled by the screenshot on CT saying "Whale shorting HYPE suffered huge losses"!
On-chain data doesn't lie. After digging into @loraclexyz's real ledger, you'll realize how terrifying the perception gap between retail investors and whales is:
Surface: Shorting HYPE with an unrealized loss of $16.5M, average price $54.74, already blown up?
Reality: This is just one leg of his nearly $100 million total holdings. His core position is 20x leveraged long gold (holding $59.68M, currently up $6.13M), also covering copper, US stocks, and dozens of other assets.
Truth: He's not simply betting on the rise or fall of a single coin, but doing a cross-market macro hedge of "long gold/commodities, short overvalued tokens."
The point of on-chain analysis is to learn the real hedging logic of the big players, not to follow marketing accounts and make up stories based on charts.
Do you think, given the current macro environment, that going long commodities + shorting overvalued crypto assets is a safe move?
$HYPE $XAUT #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
The baton for "rescuing US debt" has finally been passed to Waller.
Last week, Bostic tried to stabilize long-term US debt by expanding long-term US debt repurchase scale, but the market only responded for one day.
Subsequently, the dollar fell nearly 1% in a week, gold broke through $4600, and BTC surged more than 25% in a single week.
Interesting, right? The money hasn't disappeared; it's just looking for a new outlet.
US debt yields can't be suppressed, fiscal pressure remains, and market concerns about inflation and liquidity have ultimately shifted to gold $XAU and $BTC.
So what really deserves attention this week is what Waller will say at Jackson Hole on Friday.
What the market most wants to know is actually just one question:
In the face of inflation and fiscal pressure, does the Federal Reserve have a clear policy path?
If Waller can release a clearer dovish signal, the dollar and US debt yields may continue to be under pressure, while gold and BTC might continue to benefit.
But if he remains ambiguous or even re-emphasizes inflation risks, then long-term US debt may continue to be under pressure, and risk assets should be cautious.
So now I actually think:
The key variable for BTC this week might not be BTC itself, but US debt and the dollar.
If US debt can't be stabilized and the dollar continues to weaken, funds may continue to look for "alternative outlets."
And BTC might be one of the increasingly important outlets. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ZECHitsOKXHigh
ZEC hitting an OKX record near $859 isn't just a price story. ETF hopes are arriving as Zcash upgrades privacy and supply verifiability, giving investors both a catalyst and a stronger technical narrative. But Cypherpunk controlling nearly 18% of hash rate adds a new risk. If ETF momentum fades, concentration could matter fast. ZEC now has to prove this repricing is backed by durable demand, not just expectations.$Pinduoduo (PDD)$ The key point of this Q2 financial report is that revenue is still growing, trading services continue to run faster, but profits have not improved accordingly. Revenue and operating profit both grew 8% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell 12% year-on-year, indicating that the market should not focus solely on GMV, transactions, and revenue, but also on the impact of ecosystem investments and other profits and losses on profits. Let's look at the core data first: Q2 total revenue was 112.358 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year; Operating profit was 27.764 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 27.182 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year; Non-GAAP net profit was 28.489 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year. Diluted earnings per ADS were 18.45 yuan, down from 20.75 yuan in the same period last year. Revenue and operating profit grew in tandem, but net profit weakened, which is the most important aspect of this financial report. Trading services remain the main driver of revenue growth. Online marketing services and other revenue were 57.637 billion yuan, while transaction services revenue was 54.721 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, outpacing overall revenue. Transaction service revenue now accounts for nearly half of total revenue, indicating that Pinduoduo's growth does not rely solely on traditional advertising monetization; the platform's transaction chain itself continues to contribute incremental growth. However, in terms of growth rate, total revenue this quarter only grew 8% year-on-year, shifting market focus from "whether Pinduoduo can maintain high revenue growth" to "whether transaction service growth can support longer-term profitability." Ecosystem investment has not stopped this season's sales and operationsSaylor just broke the pattern. 👀
During the biggest Bitcoin move since election week 2024, Michael Saylor bought zero BTC.
That’s unusual.
The last two times BTC had a +20% weekly move, Saylor bought 12K BTC and then 79K BTC into those rallies.
And here’s the bigger picture:
Since July 2024, every major BTC move ended higher 3 months later, with an average gain of around +30%.
So if history is rhyming…
this might not be the top. It might be the setup.
Higher. 📈
#DailyOrbit This is not a meme season, but a "value return season" for DeFi — Is AAVE breaking through $144 just the beginning? SPK up 44.8% in a single week, ENA up 96% weekly, AAVE breaks $144. This is not the meme frenzy of March 2024; this is a completely different market trend. If it must be compared, it’s more like the DeFi Summer of 2020 — capital is repricing protocols in the Ethereum ecosystem that can truly make money. On August 24, the top gainers in the crypto secondary market were all DeFi: SPK: up over 26% in a single day, nearly 44.8% in the past week MORPHO: up 20.84% in a single day, at $2.751 AAVE: up 16.76% in a single day, at $144.07 — highest since February PENDLE: up 14.34% in a single day, at $1.847 ENA: up 13.64% in a single day, at $0.1685, nearly 96% weekly gain — almost doubled ETHFI, LDO, MET all up over 10%. The entire DeFi sector is exploding. But this is not indiscriminate buying — capital is selective. Compare this to the meme season. What did the meme season look at? Who had the most memes, who had the flashiest name, who pumped the hardest. Fundamentals? Not needed. Revenue? Not needed. Team? Even less needed. Sentiment intensity was everything. But this round is different. Capital is allocating around what? Protocols with real revenue, assets with deep governance. AAVE—$SNDK Why has SanDisk been receiving mostly positive news recently, yet its price continues to decline?
Guan Ge will give you a simple analysis. In summary, the mainstream trend is clear now; most funds have withdrawn from the US stock market and flowed into mainstream currencies like ETH and BTC. The earlier positive news has mostly been absorbed by the market, and these benefits have already been priced in. The fundamentals are getting better, but the price surged too sharply earlier, so the market is now trading on "positive news realization" and valuation rather than purely on the positive news itself.
Currently, SNDK looks more like a high-level re-pricing after a big rally, not because the fundamentals suddenly worsened.
In the short term, I will focus on the 1500 level. If it can stabilize here with increased volume, it indicates the market is starting to re-acknowledge this rally, and there is a chance to challenge the previous highs; if it continues to fluctuate or breaks below 1500, it may retest lower levels. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $xSNDK dropped 4% pre-market, reviewing "when it rises too much, it's time to sell"
For SanDisk $SNDK, I told everyone to take profits on 8/17, and today it was confirmed.
On 8/21 it closed at 1,596.08, but on 8/24 pre-market it directly dropped 4% to about 1,532. The storage sector collectively pulled back: Samsung shareholder returns fell short of expectations, MU and Hynix also dropped over 3%. I'm writing this to review with you "why when it rises too much, it's time to sell." #SanDiskInvestorDay, long-term goals become the focus
1. The foundation of long-term contracts remains: 8 major customers with $93.9 billion contract value, $91.1 billion remaining performance obligations locked in; NBM long-term contracts cover 50% for FY27 → 67% for FY28; gross margin target ~80%, operating profit 75%; HBF high bandwidth flash tape-out on 8/18. This is real evolution.
2. But today's sector negative news caused a 4% pre-market drop, indicating expectations are loosening. YTD still +564%, 32% below the 6/22 high of 2,354, rising too much is the original sin. Look at Micron's explosive earnings after-hours yet still falling, SanDisk is similar.
3. Analyst average price target is 2,000 (+25%), but short-term storage cycle peak views vary greatly. 1,600 was originally stagnant, now broken pre-market, don't rush to bottom-fish. Robinhood's on-chain capital accumulation shows a severe structural imbalance, with a core contradiction between the surge in stablecoin and Meme liquidity and the stagnation of US stock RWA accumulation, presenting a short-term dominance of speculative funds.
The total on-chain locked value surpassed $540 million in mid-August with a 45% monthly increase, overturning previous market pessimism about capital outflows. However, the total stablecoin amount reaching about $640 million indicates ample liquidity reserves, while RWA assets are only about $32 million, causing their share to quickly drop from nearly one-third in early July to about 6%, directly breaking the assumption of a US stock-dominated on-chain ecosystem.
The main drivers of capital flow are speculative Meme trading and stablecoin risk-hedging accumulation, with RWA allocation demand ranking last. Incremental funds remain in decentralized exchanges engaging in high-frequency speculation, without converting into genuine medium- to long-term holdings of US stock tokens.
The bullish scenario depends on the effective conversion of stablecoins into US stock assets. If the RWA scale rebounds and surpasses the $100 million mark while stablecoins continue to grow, on-chain liquidity will shift from pure short-term speculation to structural support, driving high-quality TVL growth.
The failure condition for this bullish scenario is that stablecoin scale continues to expand but RWA share remains below 6%, indicating that incoming funds are entirely reduced to speculative chips on decentralized exchanges.
The bearish scenario is based on a cooling of Meme speculation triggering liquidity squeeze. If decentralized exchange trading volume declines causing rapid liquidity withdrawal, and the $32 million RWA accumulation is insufficient to support the ecosystem foundation, overall TVL may face a rapid monthly drop exceeding 20%.
The failure condition for this bearish scenario is that while Meme activity declines, the absolute scale of RWA grows against the trend, and the optimization of capital structure will negate expectations of ecosystem liquidity collapse.
Key observations for the next 7 days include changes in decentralized exchange trading volume, whether the absolute scale of RWA assets can stop falling and stabilize, and the conversion rate of stablecoin accumulation funds into US stock tokens.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元The trap of circulating supply: only 7.44% of UNITREE’s total coins are actually in circulation. On the surface, its total market cap of 2,590 billion VND looks intimidating, but when you break it down, the free-float market cap is just 192 billion VND. What does that mean? It means the amount of coins available to buy on the open market is extremely thin. The main holders only need a small portion of capital to effectively control the market. Recently, short-form videos have flooded social medi过去一周，$XRP 一度上涨超过 40%，最高冲击 $1.75 附近，随后回落至 $1.52–$1.55 区间。 这不是普通的反弹，而是一波明显的资金驱动行情。 现在，我更关注的不是它已经涨了多少，而是接下来能否把突破真正转化为支撑。 📌 关键观察区间：$1.48–$1.55 如果多头能够守住这一带，同时成交量维持活跃，那么 $XRP 仍有机会再次挑战 $1.70–$1.80 区域。 但如果价格跌破 $1.45，并伴随明显放量卖出，那么市场可能需要经历一次更深的调整，重新积累力量。 更值得注意的是，这波行情并不只是 $XRP 的独立上涨。 随着 $BTC 和 $ETH 保持强势，市场资金开始向大型山寨币扩散，$SOL、$HYPE、$ZEC、$LINK 和部分高流动性代币都出现了明显的资金关注。 与此同时，近期现货加密 ETF 资金流仍然是市场的重要催化剂，机构资金持续进入 $BTC 和 $ETH，也正在改善整个加密市场的风险偏好。 这可能意味着： 市场正在从“只买 BTC”逐渐进入“资金寻找更高 Beta 资产”的阶段。 但经历一周超过 40% 的上涨后，我不会选择追高。 真正重要的Kashkari says US Treasury bonds haven't failed, do you believe that?
Last Sunday, the Minneapolis Fed President publicly stated: the US Treasury market is functioning normally, liquidity is sufficient, and the Fed just needs to keep an eye on inflation.
But a few days ago, the Treasury Department did something completely unsettling — it doubled the repurchase scale of long-term bonds from 10 to 30 years, increasing a single operation from 2 billion to over 4 billion. The reason is simple: the 30-year yield surged to 5.3% intraday on August 18, the highest since 2007, and buyers collectively went on strike.
What happened next? Once the repurchase news came out, yields briefly plunged but gave back all gains within 48 hours. This shows repurchases are a liquidity tool, a temporary fix, not a fundamental solution. The total federal debt just broke $40 trillion, about 123% of GDP, doubling in ten years, with interest rolling into the deficit. This hole can't be filled by buying back old debt a few times.
Kashkari says "historically, these yields aren't high," but in the 90s debt was just over 60% of GDP, now it's 123%. Can the fiscal foundation be the same?
So what are the smart people doing? Gold rose from $4030 to over $4600 in August, up about 14%, rising for five consecutive weeks. $BTC was even stronger, rallying from 62,000 to 78,000 dollars, up over 20% in a week. When sovereign credit is questioned, the value of non-sovereign assets goes up. Gold is the old answer, BTC is the new answer.
Can long-term bond repurchases solve the root problem? No. The real solution is either fiscal tightening or the market teaching you a lesson with higher term premiums. Until then, holding some gold and BTC is more reliable than watching Kashkari's words Brothers and sisters, hello now! Asian stock markets performed poorly on Monday, but BTC remained steady around 78000. The real test comes on Tuesday: Nvidia earnings, PCE data, and Jackson Hole, three landmines lined up waiting for you to step on.
🔴 Asia Review: AI Sector Under Pressure
Asian stock markets weakened across the board on Monday. South Korea's KOSPI plunged 3.4%, Samsung plummeted 8.7%—shareholder return plans fell short of expectations, compounded by semiconductor sector pressure ahead of Nvidia's earnings. The Hang Seng Index dropped 2.1%, Alibaba fell nearly 10%, issuing 80 billion HKD in new shares for AI infrastructure. The Nikkei fell 0.49%, and the CSI 300 dropped 1.3%.
Core contradiction: The AI narrative hasn't collapsed but is under short-term pressure. The industry chain is shifting from "expectation speculation" to "cost realization."
🌃 U.S. Pre-Market: Nvidia Earnings Decide Life or Death
Nasdaq futures down 0.3%. Nvidia's earnings (after market close Tuesday) are the real trigger point, with market expectations at $92 billion in revenue and options pricing ±6% volatility. Exceeding expectations → positive for BTC retesting 80k; missing expectations → tech stocks under pressure.
Tariff wars are also suppressing sentiment. The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Canada, and Canada will retaliate.
📊 Crypto Market
$BTC rebounded after dipping from 79500 to 75650 over the weekend. Last week saw $1.9 billion net inflow into ETFs, Coinbase premium index turned positive, U.S. spot demand improved, but about 53,000 BTC flowed into exchanges over the past 3 days, accumulating selling pressure.
A large amount of liquidity is stacked between 78000-80000, BTC is pushing toward 80k $BTC Monday Market Preview🔥
Last week, the mainstream strong northbound movement sparked discussions about whether the bull run has returned and if 58,000 is the cycle bottom?
From my personal perspective and institutional analysis, my answer would be: it doesn't look like a bottom, more like a violent rally followed by consolidation to find a bottom. Currently, the market is waiting for the mainstream to provide the next direction amid several news factors.#BTCETFInflowsSurge I am Cige, shorting BTC between 78000 and 80000. This is not chasing the short but waiting for the simultaneous confirmation of technical, capital, and macro signals for a sniper attack. This range is not arbitrarily drawn; it is the limit area of this round of short squeeze rally. What does 78000 to 80000 mean? BTC has surged over 15000 points from 63000 within a week, setting a new weekly record. The core driving forces of this rally are the resonance of Treasury buybacks, Trump's policy statements, and short squeeze, not a fundamentally driven bull market restart. From the liquidation structure perspective, $430 million in short positions have been cleared, and the short squeeze fuel is running out; going higher requires new spot buying to take over. The 78000 to 80000 range is exactly the key resistance zone at the daily level, while 82200 to 82400 is the 50-week moving average and a large area of trapped positions being released. Every step the price moves up increases selling pressure. Technical signals: The 4-hour RSI is severely overbought, and the 1-hour chart has already shown bearish divergence, with price making new highs but momentum indicators not following. After failing to break through 80000, the price has fallen back to oscillate around 77000, a typical pattern signaling the end of a short squeeze rally. The 75000 to 77000 range is the core area of the bulls and bears battle; if broken, support lies around 74000 to 74500. Capital signals: Whales have sold a total of 7700 BTC in the past 3 days, worth about $577 million, with large funds offloading at high levels. Binance and Coinbase InstToday, Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and Korean tech stocks all experienced sharp declines, but the cryptocurrency and gold concepts remained very stable, showing no signs of weakness. What I see now is ETH, LTC, and BTC all launching their next surge to new heights, while gold has broken through recent highs again. This afternoon, I saw all tech stocks falling. I thought that with the US stock market opening tonight, both crypto and gold might be affected, so I was basically in a state of full selling, including Hype, which I am optimistic about. However, that night I saw LTC and ETH were so strong, so I bought some back on my live trading account. I think this is an important sign of capital switching: 1. Liquidity has shifted from large tech stocks like US stocks and Korean stocks to the crypto and gold markets, and judging by the flow of ETF funds, there is no sign of retreat. 2. Actually, it's not just today; the past half month has shown the resilience of crypto assets. They didn't follow the decline much, then either moved sideways or rose. Personal trading tips: 1. Today I opened two countertrend positions: short positions for XRP, ETH, and BCH. At the time, I thought US stocks might fall tonight, so I would lay in wait on a few weaker stocks, but the script didn't go as I had planned, so I cut my losses early. 2. Later, I saw that ETH and LTC were stronger, which completely dismissed my belief that "US stocks will follow the decline." Then I opened long positions on ETH and LTC, and LTC is still in a loss.Huh? The prediction on Polymarket that Ethereum would fall below 2400 in August was 53% an hour ago, and now it has surged to 75.5%. A 22.5 percentage point swing, everyone is frantically betting that $ETH won't hold 2400.
What's interesting is, where is this selling pressure coming from? I checked the data — large holder addresses are transferring ETH to exchanges, on-chain activity is decreasing, and bearish options in the derivatives market have been steadily increasing these days. Someone is positioning short in advance, and there must be some news brewing, but it hasn't broken out yet.
Could the bull market lasting a few days really be ending like this? Turning into a monkey market?Altcoin Heat-Up Behind the Scenes: The "All Coins Soaring" Phenomenon Is Hard to Reappear
After strong rebounds in Bitcoin and Ethereum, the altcoin market has heated up, with some strong tokens significantly outperforming the broader market and even hitting new highs.
Although capital inflows and rising risk appetite are sending positive signals, it may still be too early for a full-scale altcoin season. More importantly, even if the altcoin season returns, the broad-based rally seen in the past may be difficult to replicate.
1. Altcoin Market Cap Returns to $1 Trillion, Few Tokens Outperform the Market
Since Bitcoin's recent strong counterattack, the long-dormant altcoin market has regained attention, with noticeable increases in market size and trading activity.
According to CoinGecko data, since August 19, the total altcoin market cap has increased by over $250 billion, now rising back to about $1.13 trillion. Meanwhile, CoinGlass data shows that daily altcoin trading volume rose from about $86.23 billion to $132.43 billion during the same period, an increase of approximately 53.6%.
Capital is flowing back into the altcoin market, and activity has clearly improved. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost recently revealed that 56% of altcoins listed on Binance have climbed back above their 200-day moving averages, indicating the market may be entering a new cycle phase.
With risk appetite rising, many altcoins have recently started to rise significantly, with some tokens even outperforming the market.
Among the top 100 tokens by market cap, the top 30 gainers in the past 7 days averaged a gain of over 34.9%, outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum during the same period. These include:
· ENA: up 98%
· PUMP: up 80.5%
· ZEC: up 69.7%
· AAVE: up 60.7%
The rise of these strong tokens is driven not only by the overall market sentiment recovery but also by improvements in their fundamentals and positive events:
· ENA: Ethena secured a $1 billion FalconX financing arrangement, with Arthur Hayes publicly bullish and buying;
· PUMP: improved protocol revenue and burn ratio, product upgrades, and gradual digestion of large unlocking pressure;
· AAVE: protocol liquidity recovery, V4 deposit scale growth, and improved regulatory compliance expectations;
· $ZEC and HYPE: recently hit new highs, driven by Grayscale ETF revisions and statements at Trump's crypto conference.
From the sector distribution perspective:
· The privacy sector has the highest average gains, mainly contributed by the single asset ZEC, without broad-based gains;
· The DeFi sector has been revalued by capital, with AAVE, ENA, UNI, MORPHO, SKY averaging about 51.5% gains in the past 7 days (still about 39.9% excluding ENA);
· The Meme sector performed strongly, with PUMP, PEPE, $DOGE, SHIB averaging 46.75% gains in the past 7 days, usually seen as a signal of rising risk appetite.
Overall, this rally includes technical rebounds after overselling and reflects a shift in market sentiment from defense to offense. However, capital tends to flow toward high-beta, strong narrative, and clearly catalyzed assets rather than broad allocation.
2. Traditional Rotation Logic Is Failing, the Era of Broad-Based Gains May Be Over
Although the altcoin market is warming up, it is still far from a full-blown altcoin season.
CoinGlass data shows the altcoin season index has rebounded to 48, up from a two-month low but still well below the 75 confirmation line. This means the market is still in a transitional and volatile phase, and capital has not fully overflowed.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market dominance remains high at 57.6%. Excluding Ethereum and stablecoins, other altcoins' market share is only 20.64%, with no significant recent change. This confirms that the current rise is more about selective token favor rather than broad liquidity overflow.
Historically, typical altcoin seasons occur after Bitcoin's significant rise followed by a high-level consolidation phase, when capital starts seeking higher-yield assets. Currently, Bitcoin's subsequent trend still requires more signals for confirmation, and early-stage capital still prioritizes Bitcoin, making it difficult for most altcoins to gain sustained support.
More importantly, the capital structure in this cycle has fundamentally changed:
· Wall Street institutions enter the market through ETFs and crypto treasuries, favoring more liquid and higher-certainty top assets;
· The number of altcoins has exploded, further dispersing limited liquidity, while incremental capital has not expanded correspondingly.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju also pointed out that the traditional altcoin rotation effect has basically disappeared, with altcoin trading volume against $BTC pairs having shrunk significantly since 2021.
In his view, the era of making money by issuing tokens based solely on narratives is over. Altcoins are not dead, but only projects with real business and actual revenue are worth holding long-term. He specifically mentioned three categories:
1. Global internet companies with tokenized market layers, such as TON;
2. DeFi protocols with real revenue, such as high-quality DEXs like Hyperliquid;
3. Projects aligned with global financial trends, including stablecoins, RWA, tokenized stocks, etc.
The altcoin season may still come in the future, but the era of "everything you buy goes up" may be over, replaced by a more selective rotation.
Going forward, whether capital can continue to flow in is only a prerequisite for the market to start. What truly determines whether tokens can survive the cycle remains the project's fundamentals, actual revenue ability, and sustainability of the narrative.
#ZEC hits new all-time high on the platform, privacy assets revalued
#ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500
#BTC fluctuates after rally, ETF funds continue to flow in 🤗 Breaking news: The sharpest market makers in the crypto space just collectively opened short positions.
Onchain Lens spotted a wallet tagged as Wintermute shorting about $190 million on Hyperliquid.
$ETH over 53 million, $BTC over 30 million, $SOL over 22 million, $HYPE over 11 million, $XRP over 10 million. Currently, the unrealized loss is 5.85 million, but this address has historically made a total profit of about $203 million.
What do they know? I don't. But my confidence that there will be another sharp drop has definitely increased.
The BTC RSI is at 93, which is already overbought and urgently needs a decent correction. The fact that these top market makers dare to open such large short positions at least indicates one thing: there isn’t much room left above, and the selling pressure outweighs the buying strength. An unrealized loss of 5.85 million is just the cost of testing the market for them; with a $200 million bankroll, this amount is negligible.
Of course, this wallet hasn’t been officially confirmed by Wintermute, it’s just an on-chain label. Also, market makers often open both long and short positions for hedging, so it’s not necessarily a pure bearish bet. But whether they are hedging spot positions or genuinely expect a drop, it at least suggests that the risk at this level outweighs the opportunity.
I’ll keep holding as I have: half in $OKB as a hard bottom hold, half in BTC, and the other half in cash. When the crash hits my target level, I’ll deploy the cash to buy the dip.
PS: The above is my personal prediction and does not constitute investment advice. Profit and loss are your own responsibility.If BTC really has passed the bottom area, then it will no longer be the sole core asset in the future.
This week, BTC's highest price reached around 80,000. If this round's 57,800 is truly the bottom, the drop from the peak is about 54%. If it reverses from now on, the next cycle likely won't see much growth. Even if it reaches 150,000, that's basically just a 2x return. I don't really believe there will be a 5x return in 2-3 years.
My personal thought is, if BTC really behaves like this this round, expectations for BTC need to be significantly lowered. It might become more like a large-cap asset similar to a crypto index.
If that's the case, then more attention should be paid to other assets. BTC might no longer be one of the high-growth assets, and this is what I need to start preparing for.
The above is just one possibility. I don't know if it will become reality, but we need to be prepared for it.
I personally did not get on board during this rise because my system did not signal me to buy. Since I also have a BTC bottom-fishing panel, my panel has been indicating a slightly undervalued position. Neither time, drop percentage, nor data triggered my system.
My system's strategy is to start buying when the panel score exceeds 60, but it only reached 59 at its highest. So far, no buy signal has been triggered.
Also, my judgment on the ma120 is that only a breakout after a long sideways movement in the bottom area or a breakdown after sideways movement in the top area can be considered a reference strategy.
I initially wondered why I didn't buy when ma120 broke out, but my current answer is that precisely because I followed my own strategy, I didn't buy.
However, I really didn't consider the possibility of a direct bull market at this time, which is an area where my strategy can improve.
The reason I set 60 points as the buy threshold is not arbitrary. Based on the last cycle, it would have been around 20,000 to start buying.
Although I do feel a bit afraid of missing out, I rationally believe that based on the data, there is still a chance my system's alert will be triggered. It's just that this time I didn't expect a direct surge.
Currently, I think there are roughly a few possible scenarios:
1: This time is a true reversal.
2: This time is a bear market rebound.
3: A completely unexpected market breaking the 4-year cycle, turning into a model similar to the US stock market.
From the perspective of time, data, and cycle, it doesn't really look like a reversal now, but from the current facts and technicals, it does look like a reversal. This is the contradictory part.
To be honest, I haven't figured out a specific strategy yet, but the general direction is to prepare countermeasures for various situations and always assume I might be wrong, because the market is always right. Being prepared with countermeasures is the most important.