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$BTC and $ETH are holding up against the US stock market today, unusually strong — this feels more like testing the waters rather than sending a safety signal.
Looking at the numbers
$BTC 65,133 +1.40% $ETH 1,927 +1.41%
$QQQ -0.37% $SPY -0.16% $IBIT -0.68%
$DXY -0.46% $GLD +0.01%
US Treasuries and Fed expectations continue to suppress valuations; $QQQ simply can’t run freely here. The currency line is restless too; when $DXY moves, the whole market shakes along. AI and semiconductors remain the emotional switches, holding the lifeline of $QQQ in their hands.
Money is clearly retreating into defense; $QQQ looks weak. $IBIT is even weaker than $BTC, and a soft ETF means the spot buying isn’t that strong. $ETH, on the other hand, shows more resilience than $BTC, with small-cap risk appetite quietly rising. $DXY has eased a bit, allowing risk assets to barely catch a breath. $GLD is still rising; safe-haven funds haven’t fully withdrawn.
Don’t rush to chase; whoever shows weakness first will set today’s direction. Stay tuned.$SKHYNIX
$SNDK
$BTC
The entire market has stopped paying attention to Bitcoin, and there is no good news in crypto right now. Everyone is trading US stocks, focusing on SanDisk and Micron.
So now is precisely the time to pay attention to Bitcoin.
Buy when no one is interested, sell when the crowd is loud. $BTC Non-farm payroll data fell far short of expectations. The market expected an increase of 80,000 jobs, but instead of growth, there was a decrease of 23,000. This positive and negative difference exceeds 100,000. The unemployment rate slightly declined instead of rising. However, this is not a sign of an improving employment market but rather caused by a drop in labor force participation. The positive news has already been priced in, marking a peak phase. Short-term traders can consider reducing positions appropriately, avoid chasing highs, and wait for a pullback to confirm support before entering.
Unemployment rate 4.1% (expected 4.2%) — the unemployment rate fell instead of rising.
The current core market logic: Such extremely disappointing employment data is like putting the Federal Reserve on the hot seat. The market is no longer worried about a recession but is betting heavily that the Fed must cut rates in September, possibly by as much as 50 basis points with massive easing! This explains why after the data release, Bitcoin not only didn’t fall but surged above 65100 — everyone is rushing to anticipate liquidity easing.
Considering the current price around 65129
This price just broke through the previously emphasized daily life line EMA55, around 64830.
The MACD red bars on the daily and 4-hour charts are expanding, indicating that the recent rally involved real money entering the market, and the major trend has taken hold.
Next market forecast and trading strategy
Short-term market projection
Tonight is likely to follow a "rally then pullback and consolidation" pattern.
When the data was just released, retail investors chased the buy, pushing the price to a high near 65350. But note, there is heavy resistance above, with the next resistance at 65435, and beyond that the previous high at 66928. The main players probably won’t push a breakout in one go on Friday night; instead, they may use this opportunity to shake out weak hands.
Specific trading advice:
1. Absolutely do not chase above 65300. There was already a surge just now; entering now risks becoming the main players’ bag holders. Better to miss the first wave than chase the price up.
2. Wait for a confirmed pullback before acting. Since 65000 has held, a pullback to 64800–65000 is an excellent entry opportunity. If the 1-hour chart doesn’t break down at this level and closes with a long lower shadow, that’s the safest and most comfortable entry point.
3. Defend your stop-loss line firmly: No matter where you enter, stop-loss must be set below 64000. If, despite this data and positive news, Bitcoin still breaks below 64000, it means there are bigger internal market problems, and you must exit unconditionally.
4. Be aware of risks: The US stock market will definitely be volatile tonight. If US stocks plunge due to "economic recession," Bitcoin may be dragged down somewhat. Light positions are the safest approach. In short: The unexpected reduction in U.S. jobs, slowing wage growth, and a sharp rise in the probability of the Fed being forced to cut rates have skyrocketed. This is positive for the crypto world in the medium to long term! 1. Understand this nonfarm payroll report in three sentences * U.S. jobs are not increasing but decreasing; companies are struggling to recruit. The market originally predicted 80,000 new jobs in July, but not only did they fail to increase, they actually dropped by 23,000. This shows that under the pressure of high interest rates, American companies struggle to do business and are severely exhausted in recruitment. * Workers' wages can't rise, inflation threat completely eliminated Workers' hourly wages rose only 0.1% month-over-month (below the expected 0.3%). If wages rise slowly, consumer spending will rebound and prices won't skyrocket. This means the Fed's biggest fear—the risk of an "inflation rebound"—no longer exists. * Unemployment rate slightly reduced to 4.1%. Although the unemployment rate looks slightly better, it cannot hide the fact that private sector hiring is drying out and the economy is slowing. 2. Is it good news or negative news? Conclusion: The medium- to long-term market is a strong bullish trend; the short term is a high-volatility shakeout. * Why is the medium- to long-term market a major positive outlook? (Driven by Liquidity) The Fed has two core tasks: one is to prevent inflation, and the other is to secure employment. Previously, not cutting rates was out of fear of inflation resurgence; Now that inflation is under control, employment and the risk of economic recession have surged. To prevent a hard landing, the Fed has been forced to cut rates and inject liquidity. Once the tap is turned on, capital markets will have more money, which is a risk asset for BTC and ETH"One report tonight could decide whether the Fed stays patient—or brings rate hikes back into the conversation."
📌 US July Non-Farm Payrolls (8:30 PM Beijing time): Why tonight's data matters for crypto and global markets
Markets expect the US economy to add 80,000 jobs in July, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2% and monthly wage growth is expected to come in at 0.3%.
At first glance, the labor market still looks stable. But beneath the surface, the cracks are becoming harder to ignore.
⚠️ The warning signs are already flashing.
Private payroll data from ADP showed just 44,000 new jobs, far below expectations of 75,000, suggesting that corporate hiring momentum is slowing much faster than economists anticipated.
Even more importantly, the labor-force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2021. That means a steady unemployment rate may not actually reflect a healthy job market—it could simply mean that fewer people are actively looking for work.
🏭 Where are the jobs holding up—and where are they disappearing?
Healthcare and education continue to provide support.
Hotels and leisure businesses face seasonal weakness.
Financial firms are becoming more cautious as concerns about AI-driven job replacement grow.
🤔 Why does this matter for the Fed?
Tonight's report could reshape expectations for the rest of the year:
📈 Stronger-than-expected wages and job growth would reinforce inflation fears and revive speculation that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten policy sooner than markets expect.
📉 Weak employment numbers would strengthen the case for the Fed to remain patient and could increase expectations for future rate cuts.
For Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, this isn't just another economic release—it's a test of whether growth is slowing fast enough to outweigh inflation concerns.
At 8:30 PM, traders won't just be watching the jobs number. They'll be watching the future path of interest rates.
#DailyOrbit Expectations for interest rate cuts are soaring, but I advise you to put away your high-leverage long positions for now
Tonight's non-farm payrolls report revealed a massive shock with a contraction of 23,000 jobs, causing global government bond nominal yields to instantly collapse and the US dollar index to plunge sharply. Almost simultaneously, Bitcoin drew a very conspicuous upward wick candle above $64,000, prompting many to excitedly shout, "The faucet is about to open, altcoin season is about to start."
However, personally, I think rushing to go long with high leverage at this critical point is very likely to get slapped back by the upcoming liquidity fluctuations.
There is a classic counterintuitive logic here.
In financial history cycles, bad news is often traded as good news because poor employment data forces the Federal Reserve to cut rates. But don't forget, the Fed never abruptly switches from a tough rate-hiking cycle directly to an emergency rate cut without reason. The starting point for Fed rate cuts is usually when some key parts of the real economy have already begun to slow down or even show cracks.
Although my large position remains a spot long, when the data just came out and the market excitedly spiked up, I not only did not chase the rally but also closed part of my defensive leveraged long positions to take profits.
The reason I chose to defend at this point is that I have paid a costly tuition. In the actual evolution of historical cycles, when the Fed is truly forced into a rate-cutting channel by poor economic data in the early stage, it is often accompanied by a liquidity cold snap for risk assets. Because the market first trades the rate cut, then quickly shifts to trading the collapse of corporate earnings and credit contraction caused by recession.
At this time, simply going all-in with high leverage long positions just because "rate cuts are coming soon" is tantamount to betting that the Fed can instantly plug the real economy's slowdown hole with paper reports.
Near the current $64,000 resistance level, the market's order book depth remains fragile. Tonight's rally was largely a chain stampede triggered by short squeeze liquidations and does not indicate that external incremental funds have started large-scale accumulation.
Next, I suggest focusing on a key defensive indicator: the net inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs during the first three trading days next week. If ETF buying does not show an explosive large increase, then tonight's rebound is very likely just a bloated twitch in a large-scale liquidity vacuum.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Terafab's initial $1.68 billion and SpaceX's committed $5 billion capital expenditures are severely squeezing corporate cash flow. The valuation pressure on the US tech sector, combined with high and volatile US Treasury yields, is driving on-chain tokenized asset $XLITE to face liquidity premium compression and valuation squeeze.
The market shows a divergence between the heavy asset nature of the US stock computing power industry chain and the high premium of on-chain tokens. With US Treasury rates and the dollar remaining strong, macro liquidity struggles to support the heavy asset premium without dividend attributes. Meanwhile, $XLITE's hype around the autonomous computing chip concept has caused short-term trading prices to significantly deviate from the cash flow discounted support based on fundamental earnings reports.
The primary driving logic is the adjustment of equity asset discount rates under suppressed US Treasury yields; the secondary priority is the erosion of short-term free cash flow by Terafab's $1.68 billion initial investment; the third is the expected marginal cost reduction from future self-sufficient computing power. The high interest rate environment amplifies the capital cost of heavy asset production cycles, directly weakening risk appetite for on-chain derivative tokens.
If US Treasury yields and the dollar index fall synchronously, and Tesla and SpaceX clarify a phased $5 billion capital expenditure schedule before 2030, liquidity will quickly recover. Under these conditions, the release of macro interest rate pressure combined with the faster-than-expected realization of autonomous capacity will drive $XLITE to break through high resistance zones, allowing valuation premiums to continue. The signal that this scenario fails is a continuous rise in macro discount rates.
If the dollar remains strong, interest rates stay high, and Terafab's cost-sharing mechanism remains unclear causing accelerated free cash flow loss in earnings reports, valuation corrections in US tech stocks will directly transmit to the crypto on-chain market. At this point, $XLITE will face pressure squeezing inflated liquidity premiums, with prices retreating to fundamental discounted ranges. The signal that this scenario fails is the unexpected arrival of external funding subsidies such as local tax incentives, slowing cash flow loss.
When the speed of autonomous capacity deployment significantly exceeds expectations, causing profit increments from chip manufacturing cost reductions to surpass the cash flow losses caused by the $1.68 billion investment, the entire phase of bearish projections will be completely invalidated.
In the next 7 days, key observations should focus on the 10-year US Treasury yield trends, liquidity premium changes in the US tech sector, and the actual impact of Terafab's specific responsibility allocation and capital expenditure implementation rhythm on $XLITE secondary market capital flows.
#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解 #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？🚨 BREAKING: U.S. Jobs Data Misses Expectations by a Wide Margin
The latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report came in at -23,000, compared to expectations of +85,000. Instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost them—a major downside surprise.
Here's how I'm reading it:
📉 Bearish for the U.S. Dollar
🟡 Bullish for Gold
🚀 Potentially Bullish for BTC and the broader crypto market
A weaker labor market could reduce expectations of future Fed tightening, which is generally supportive for risk assets. That said, such a weak print also raises concerns about slowing economic growth, so volatility is likely to remain high.
I'm not chasing the first move. I'll wait for $BTC to confirm direction before making any decisions.
Stay patient. Let the market reveal its handPreview of SpaceX's Future Trend🔥
1. The first lock-up release has landed, arguably the biggest negative since listing, yet the price rose instead of falling—strong!
2. There will definitely be sellers during the lock-up release; last night’s trading volume ranked top three in US stocks, rising over 20 billion, indicating bulls and bears are calling each other fools!
3. Coupled with trading volume expanding continuously since before the earnings report, while the trading price barely changed, this shows significant divergence and signals a turning point!
4. The high point of 225 has already been halved; the current price of 115, below 135, is a solid price compressed after entering the Nasdaq on July 6, very firm!
5. Regardless of the major market sell-off earlier or the recent rebound, $SPCX has shown enough resilience and independence!
6. The lock-up release on August 6 will serve as a sample for future releases; this time it rose, so the next lock-up won’t be scary!
7. So far, I haven’t missed any opportunity with SpaceX!
Now
1. Expectations are changing; lock-up releases are no longer scary!
2. Chips are changing; concentrated in strong hands!
3. Continuous rebound; 35% short positions are potential buying power!
4. Short term will first return to 135, but this should not be the end of this rebound!
Whether comparing to Bitcoin a few days ago or analyzing chips yesterday, I’ve been completely open-hearted, my brother! #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 #SpaceX获$1.6B美军合同，股价暴跌引两派争议 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 There are rumors of a massive chip manufacturing plan in the Texas desert, and the heavy capital expenditure expectations in the U.S. tech sector are being transmitted in real-time to the speculative front of the crypto market through tokenization channels.
The U.S. stock tokenized asset $XLITE experienced intense volatility after the news broke, with trading volume rapidly expanding in the short term, reflecting the market's sensitivity to the narrative of autonomous computing power.
Against the backdrop of high interest rates suppressing tech stock valuations, the capital outflow effect of massive capital expenditures has triggered a subtle game between U.S. Treasury yields and leading U.S. tech stocks.
If U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the huge factory construction expenses of tech giants will further tighten free cash flow, which logically conflicts with the token market's optimistic pricing of computing power premiums.
If the U.S. dollar index weakens and market liquidity expectations ease, capital may overlook cash flow pressures and continue to push up the premium of $XLITE until the tech giants' quarterly reports reveal actual capital expenditures exceeding expectations.
If the U.S. tech sector experiences a valuation correction due to heavy asset burdens, risk-averse funds will flow to gold, and $XLITE will face the risk of a rapid decline in liquidity premium unless new local tax incentives exceed expectations.
When the grand narrative of autonomous computing power detaches from the constraints of the interest rate environment, traditional cross-market valuation anchors will fail.
In the next 7 days, the most important variable to watch is the movement of U.S. Treasury yields after the announcement of tech stock capital expenditure plans, which will determine the sustainability of tokenized asset premiums.
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解Recently, Circle's native USDC officially deployed OKX X Layer, with OKX wallet fully adapting and supporting it. At the same time, the official CCTP cross-chain channel was opened, marking the most critical infrastructure-level benefit since X Layer's launch, directly addressing the biggest long-term weakness of this L2. Many people can't tell the difference between native USDC and legacy Bridge USDC; here is the core difference. Previously, X Layer circulated only USDC packaged as a third-party bridge, with assets locked through cross-chain contracts, posing significant risks of hacker theft and contract vulnerabilities, which is the core reason large funds hesitate to enter. The native USDC launched this time is minted and burned directly on-chain by Circle's official platform, aligned 1:1 against compliant USD reserves, paired with the CCTP cross-chain mechanism, completely eliminating third-party bridges, and ensuring asset security directly aligns with Ethereum and Base ecosystem standards. This upgrade is highly significant for the industry. Whether an L2 can be built depends on whether it has compliant native stablecoins. Previously, Base Chain rose rapidly, with its core advantage being its exclusive native USDC ecosystem. Now, X Layer has completed this core infrastructure, officially meeting the basic conditions for DeFi, RWA asset tokenization, and on-chain transactions, completely freeing itself from the "non-mainstream Layer 2 network" positioning and allowing it to directly compete in the mainstream L2 sector in the future. At the same time, OKX Wallet is fully adapted, supporting native USDC transfers, interactions, and gas-free operations, lowering the on-chain operation threshold for ordinary users and supporting the exchange's massive existing user base.My mindset is blown, this $ETH move was too sudden
The short position at 1898 was immediately stopped out, losing over 1800 U
As a small retail short-seller, I really can't handle this volatility
The non-farm payrolls accelerated the market; before the data came out, ETH's lows were already rising, and I was a bit slow to react to the original bearish structure
In July, non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, significantly below market expectations, leading the market to quickly lower rate hike expectations, and risk assets surged
ETH also rode this sentiment, jumping directly from around 1900 to 1944
After closing the previous trade, I didn't immediately chase the price
When the surge to 1944 paused and the price returned near 1930, I reopened a short at 1933
This time, my focus changed
After the surge to 1944 with a wave of volume, it didn't continue to expand; the price fell back below the high, so I was trading the retracement after this acceleration
Now I'm watching 1920 first
If this level breaks, I'm more concerned about the 1910 to 1905 range below; conversely, if the price returns near 1940 and holds, I won't short anymore and will close the position
Even though both are short positions, the conditions behind 1898 and 1933 are not the same
The previous trade was a structural change that I didn't handle in time; this trade, I'm only watching the retracement space left after the 1944 surge.
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ 🇰🇷 Why Did SK Hynix ($SKHYNIX) Fall Despite Announcing a Dividend?
Many expected the stock to rally after today's shareholder return announcement, but it declined instead. Here are the three main reasons:
1️⃣ Expectations were simply too high.
For weeks, the market had been pricing in rumors of a massive KRW 66.4 trillion shareholder return package, including buybacks and special dividends. Instead, SK Hynix announced only a KRW 375 per-share quarterly dividend and said additional shareholder return measures will be finalized in Q3. While the company reaffirmed that more details are coming, investors viewed today's announcement as underwhelming.
2️⃣ The good news was already priced in.
SK Hynix has been one of the biggest drivers of the Korean market this year, with a massive rally fueled by AI and HBM demand. After such a strong run, many investors used the announcement as an opportunity to lock in profits, leading to a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction.
3️⃣ The entire memory chip sector is under pressure.
The weakness wasn't isolated to SK Hynix. Memory stocks globally have been correcting amid concerns over AI valuations, HBM demand expectations, and potential future oversupply. That negative sector sentiment dragged SK Hynix lower despite its long-term expansion plans.
📌 Bottom line:
Today's decline doesn't necessarily signal deteriorating fundamentals. It reflects a combination of overheated expectations, profit-taking after a strong rally, and broad weakness across the memory semiconductor sector. Investors are now waiting for the company's detailed Q3 shareholder return plan to determine the next catalyst.
#SKHynix #Semiconductors #AI #HBM #Stocks #Korea #InvestingThe non-farm payroll data that came out was really scary.
I expected the data might be lower than anticipated, but I didn't expect negative growth.
Looking at the specific data, the main reason for the negative growth is still government layoffs.
Before the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September was 55%, but it dropped to 40% after the data was published.
Maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September has once again become the market benchmark, and the rate hike expectations have been significantly weakened.
The US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and the USD/JPY exchange rate have all been falling, gold is taking off, and the US stock market is also up nearly 1% in pre-market trading.
Although this is clearly positive, I still feel something is a bit off....#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Non-farm payrolls surprised to the downside, but don't rush to call it good news
New jobs -23,000, with the previous two months cut by another 103,000; unemployment rate fell mainly because more people left the labor force
The market has priced in a 44% chance of a rate hike in September
This is not bad news = mindless rally, but rather easing rate hike pressure and rising growth risks: next, watch US Treasury yields, and whether the Nasdaq and BTC can truly hold up
If rates fall but risk assets don't rise, the trade is not easing but recession #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ On July 31, South Korean regulators issued new regulations that took heavy measures against leveraged ETFs for individual stocks. For individual investors wanting to buy such products, the minimum deposit requirement has been raised directly from 10 million KRW to 30 million KRW in cash. The effect is immediate. According to KRX data, on August 7, the total transaction volume of 16 related products in the market was only 941.2 billion KRW, failing to surpass the trillion KRW threshold for the second consecutive day. You have to know, before the new policy, this was a hot and hot track. But money doesn't just disappear into thin air; it just re-enters the market with a new face. Jung Hyun-jong, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, pointed out a phenomenon: while individual stock leveraged ETFs have cooled off, the trading volume of semiconductor leveraged ETFs has actually increased. What's more noteworthy is that capital is clearly flowing into similar products listed overseas, such as the CSOP SK Hynix Daily Leveraged Product on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is now one of the largest by market cap among global individual stock leveraged ETFs. $SNDK That's easy to understand. Overseas ETFs are not subject to domestic regulations in South Korea; leverage is increased, semiconductors are still being chased, and it's basically a different trading venue. The market calls this "regulatory arbitrage," or more figuratively, the "balloon effect"—one side presses the button, the other inflates. Ultimately, retail investors' enthusiasm for the semiconductor cycle and their preference for high-leverage tools cannot be stopped by simply raising the domestic market threshold. The regulators' original intention may be to cool down and control risks, but funds naturally seek the path with least resistance. The current situation is: South Korea's domestic leveraged products are shrinking in volume, South KoreaMajor positive news, brothers, #$DOGE The core contradiction in this employment report lies in the coexistence of job contraction and falling unemployment rate: nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, expected to increase by 80,000, previous value was an increase of 57,000, with new jobs turning negative directly from a low point. Private sector employment increased by 30,000, below the expected 78,000 and also below the previous 49,000, indicating labor demand is weaker than the market previously anticipated, and interest rate path pricing may shift to place more emphasis on downside employment risks.
The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, below the expected 4.2%, which diverges from the negative nonfarm payrolls. A more direct signal comes from new jobs created by companies; private sector expansion is slowing, and overall nonfarm employment has already contracted.
Wage growth is cooling simultaneously. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1% month-over-month in July, below the expected 0.3% and also below the previous 0.3%, easing wage growth pressure marginally. After the Federal Reserve's most recent decision, the policy rate stands at 3.75%. Negative employment and slowing wages may increase the weight of growth risks in policy discussions, but with unemployment still at 4.1%, a single month of data is insufficient to confirm a shift in policy stance. #Fed hawkish signals intensify, can weak employment outweigh inflation? $DOGE Nonfarm payrolls directly turned negative, why didn't $BTC take off immediately?
The US July nonfarm payrolls finally delivered a big surprise.
The new nonfarm employment didn't just fall short of expectations; it actually decreased by 23,000 jobs, while the market originally expected an increase of about 80,000. More notably, May's new employment was revised down from 129,000 to 63,000, and June's from 57,000 to 20,000, totaling 103,000 fewer jobs over two months.
On the surface, this should be the kind of data BTC likes most: cooling employment, making it harder for the Fed to remain hawkish, and improving liquidity expectations.
But the real question this time is: is employment just "cooling down moderately," or has it already started to head toward a recession?
First, the biggest positive for BTC is not a rate cut, but that the Fed is less confident about raising rates further.
Recently, what has truly suppressed cryptocurrencies is not just BTC itself, but the combination of high oil prices, high inflation, and high US Treasury yields putting "the Fed might continue tightening" back on the table.
After this nonfarm report, that logic is clearly weakened.
July's direct loss of 23,000 jobs, combined with consecutive downward revisions in the previous two months, indicates the US labor market is far less robust than it appears.
For BTC, this means a very direct change:
The threshold for the Fed to continue tightening monetary policy has been significantly raised.
As long as the market starts to reprice a looser liquidity environment, the upside for the dollar and US Treasury yields will be limited, which itself supports BTC's valuation.
Second, but this data is already too weak to be simply considered positive.
The market prefers "employment cooling gradually," not "the US suddenly stops creating jobs."
This time, nonfarm payrolls dropped from an expected +80,000 to -23,000, a magnitude clearly beyond a normal soft landing range.
Although the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, which looks good, the labor force participation rate also dropped to 61.4%. This means the unemployment rate decline does not fully prove a stronger labor market; part of the reason is that some people have simply exited the labor force.
This is why I believe this data is for BTC:
Short-term slightly positive, medium-term caution advised.
If employment continues to decline in the coming months, layoffs expand, and consumption worsens, the market will no longer trade on "Fed easing" but on "US economic recession."
At that time, both US stocks and BTC may fall first, then wait for genuine liquidity easing.
Third, what BTC currently lacks most is incremental capital.
This is also the most awkward situation for BTC right now.
Recently, ETF funds have flowed back in, nonfarm payrolls were clearly below expectations, and the macro environment theoretically is gradually tilting toward BTC, yet BTC still hasn't shown the kind of big bullish breakout it had in the past.
This indicates the market is not without positives, but the positives can only provide a floor for now and are insufficient to create a trend.
Previous trapped positions, miner selling pressure, long-term holders reducing positions, and overall market risk appetite are all consuming new buying power.
So what really matters next is not whether BTC rises or falls 1% tonight, but whether macro positives can be converted into continuous capital inflows.
If ETFs continue net inflows, US Treasury yields fall, and BTC reclaims above $65,000, then this nonfarm report could become a catalyst for a new breakout.
Conversely, if such poor employment data cannot push BTC to break through, it means internal selling pressure in the market remains heavy.
My judgment:
Overall, this nonfarm report is slightly positive for BTC but not a blind bullish signal.
The best scenario is US employment continues to weaken moderately, the Fed stops being hawkish, and the economy does not truly enter a recession. This "growth cooling + liquidity improvement" combination is most favorable for BTC.
Now we need to watch three things: whether $65,000 can be broken, whether ETF funds can sustain inflows, and whether US Treasury yields can truly come down.
Nonfarm has already placed the first piece of the puzzle.
What will decide whether BTC can resume a trend is not the employment data itself, but whether this data can truly change the US liquidity environment. THE JOBS REPORT JUST CLEARED THE PATH FOR RATE CUTS
The economy lost 23,000 jobs in July against expectations of an 85,000 gain.
- Nonfarm payrolls: -23K vs +85K expected
- Private payrolls: +30K vs +78K expected
- Average hourly earnings: +0.1% vs +0.3% expected
- Unemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% expected
Markets had September rate hike odds above 57% going into today. Three Fed officials voted to raise rates this week.
That case is now much harder to make.
Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, a real loss, when Wall Street expected a gain of 85,000.
Private nonfarm payrolls also missed badly, up just 30,000 against 78,000 expected.
Unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%. Normally that reads as good news, but with actual job losses happening at the same time, it more likely means people left the labor force rather than found work.
Wage growth stalled too. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1%, a third of the 0.3% expected.
That combination is what the Fed has been waiting for. Inflation pressure easing while the labour market stays intact.
$FET Unemployment rate drops to 4.1%, rate cut expectations pushed back again
The latest US unemployment rate recorded at 4.1%, below the market expectation of 4.2%, the lowest level in 14 months. On the surface, this signals economic resilience, but for the market, the more stable the labor force, the less reason the Federal Reserve has for a rapid rate cut.
BTC just returned to a key area. The stronger employment data makes investors reassess the pace of rate cuts. If the dollar and US Treasury yields rebound, short-term risk assets will be pressured, but as long as liquidity expectations have not completely reversed, the focus is on the support after the pullback.
Employment is too strong, making rate cut trades uncomfortable. Tonight, the focus is on how US Treasuries and the dollar react. The data is hawkish, short-term pressure is unavoidable, but the overall direction hasn't changed. Wait for sentiment to digest before reassessing.
Don't bet on direction right when the data comes out; let the market take a couple of steps first $BTC $ETH $SNDK #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC's market has been pretty good these past couple of days!
It has steadily pushed upward, although there were quite a few sell orders in between.
But overall, it quickly recovered.
There is selling pressure above and buying support below, which is indeed good news.
Recently, there haven't been any positive or negative news.
Geopolitical issues and the Fed's potential rate hike speculation have already been priced in by the market.
So now, the only thing that can suppress the coin price is investor confidence.
As long as the price keeps rising and breaks through the first resistance at 67000, I'll keep looking higher, around 77500.
After all, we've been in a bear market for several quarters.
The 62000-64000 range has been consolidating for over a month.
It fits the conditions to start a small bull run. After a short-term surge, I chose to position myself contrarily.
The momentum of this market rally is really fierce, which oddly makes me feel uneasy.
Having worked in physical manufacturing for many years, dealing daily with various hardware parts and steel materials, I've seen all kinds of workpieces, yet my own temperament remains particularly stubborn.
Everyone, I have already entered the market with a short position. In my view, the conditions for a corrective phase are gradually taking shape.
BICO has tripled in just five trading days, with the price soaring from 0.0117 to around 0.05. The single-day trading volume surged to the 130 million level, and the platform's heat ranking jumped directly to fourth place.
The community is filled with optimistic voices; many are proclaiming a market return and even fantasizing about the price reaching the $1 mark.
But I can't help but wonder, what is the underlying support logic behind a threefold increase in just a few days?
Objectively speaking, the project is deeply involved in the account abstraction sector, which is a reasonable direction. However, looking back to May, the project team quietly transferred 90 million tokens to trading platforms. Similar past actions mostly corresponded to the main holders distributing chips at high levels.
Since the triple surge started on August 1, many ordinary participants have been attracted by the market and rushed in to take chips, while large holders have gradually offloaded chips at relatively high levels, leveraging the market heat.
Hidden risks exist not only at the chip level but also many warning signals are released on the technical charts.
After the price retraced to 0.035, it attempted to break through 0.04 again but failed on the second test.
There is a circulating claim online that all tokens have been fully circulated and there is no unlocking pressure, but this is not true. Private placements and community shares release 16.88 million tokens monthly; after the team and foundation unlock parts at the end of November, the monthly release will further expand to 29.8 million tokens, making subsequent selling pressure significant.
Any asset that experiences a rapid short-term surge, no matter how promising the sector logic, will have a particularly fragile market structure.
Currently, short positions are continuously accumulating in the market, funding rates remain negative, open interest is rapidly expanding, and multiple signals overlap, indicating poor overall market stability.
I have already placed a short order at 0.04975 with a stop loss set at 0.055. The first observation target is 0.035; if this support is broken, the next observation point is 0.025.
A threefold increase in five days often leads to a cliff-like drop after such a rapid surge.
Manage your positions well and execute trades according to plan. This non-farm payroll data is more like "neutral to complex" for $BTC.
The obvious cooling in employment means the Fed has less room to continue tightening, which is certainly not bad for risk assets; but the problem remains the same — inflation is unresolved, so rate cuts are hard to truly implement.
So I now tend to interpret this non-farm payroll as: giving BTC a short-term breather, but not yet issuing a pass for a bull market.
If BTC can truly hold steady around $65,000 and continue to increase volume and rise afterward, then the market has reason to look for higher levels. Conversely, if it rallies but then falls back below $65,000, or even retests $63,000–$64,000, it indicates this rise is more driven by sentiment and liquidity.
As for $ETH and $SOL, I wouldn’t rush to chase just because the non-farm payroll is weak.
When true risk appetite returns, capital will naturally flow from BTC to ETH, SOL, and high-beta altcoins. If BTC itself hasn’t fully confirmed its trend yet, betting early on a broad altcoin takeoff is somewhat premature.
So going forward, I’m only watching three things: whether BTC can hold $65,000, how the US dollar and Treasury yields move, and whether inflation data truly eases.
Non-farm payrolls cause volatility; inflation decides the direction.
Don’t get these two mixed up. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ $FIL recently officially launched FVM and is developing the search market, clearly trying to shed the label of a mining machine coin and transition to programmable storage.
However, FIL's rollercoaster ride is practically a textbook case in the crypto market.
Back then, relying on the grand narrative of decentralized storage, it managed to hype its market cap to the sky, but what followed was huge selling pressure and slow ecosystem adoption.
Falling from the peak of $237 is not just a price correction but a revaluation of its worth. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ During the phase of risk appetite recovery, U.S. stocks saw a net inflow of $41.6 billion, while stablecoin market capitalization shrank by 5.2%.
On trading days when overall market risk appetite improves, U.S. stocks experience a single-day net inflow of $41.6 billion in off-exchange funds.
A large amount of cautious capital enters to position in growth sectors, helping U.S. stocks to form an independent upward trend.
On the other hand, the total market value of stablecoins in the crypto market has recently shrunk by 5.2%, with available speculative funds on exchanges continuously decreasing.
Stablecoins serve as the liquidity reservoir in the crypto space; a contraction in this reservoir indicates a loss of active liquidity within the market.
When overall market risk sentiment improves, incremental funds primarily prefer U.S. stocks due to their higher compliance and more certain returns.
They do not flow into the cryptocurrency market, which carries higher regulatory risks and extreme volatility.
When market risk sentiment declines, safe-haven funds will buy government bonds and gold to preserve assets.
The crypto space still does not serve as a safe-haven option for funds.
Crypto assets are currently stuck in a very awkward middle position.
During bullish markets, they cannot outperform U.S. tech stocks; during panic markets, they lag behind precious metals and government bonds.
The long-term divergence in capital flows ensures that U.S. stocks will have their own distinct price movements, while the crypto space will experience independent volatile trends.In the past three months, the Nasdaq has risen cumulatively by 7.6%, while Bitcoin's increase over the same period is only 0.48%
Over the last three months, the Nasdaq index has cumulatively increased by 7.6%, with the AI industry chain continuously driving wave after wave of market rallies.
Optical modules, server memory, and AI office software have successively become market hotspots.
Many stocks in niche sectors have achieved stage gains of over 20-30%.
However, Bitcoin's overall increase in the past three months is only 0.48%, almost stagnant.
Ethereum fell 2.13% during the same period, and most mainstream coins have experienced temporary losses.
The three-month cycle data clearly shows the disparity in returns among risk assets.
This round of the US stock bull market is driven by technological innovation in artificial intelligence, representing the industrial dividends brought by technological transformation.
Every sector rally is supported by the implementation of new technologies and a surge in product orders.
The crypto industry has not recently seen disruptive technological innovation or large-scale institutional capital inflows.
The crypto space is currently stuck in old narratives, lacking new upward momentum.
Industrial dividends favor only the US tech sector, and the crypto market lacks driving forces for growth, naturally causing the market to completely decouple from US stocks. $BTC $ETH $SNDK 🚨 U.S. JOBS REPORT SHOCKS: JULY PAYROLLS FALL 23K
The U.S. labor market delivered a major downside surprise, with July Nonfarm Payrolls falling by 23,000, compared with expectations for a +85,000 increase.
📊 Key numbers:
□□ July Jobs: -23K
📈 Expected: +85K
👷 Unemployment Rate: 4.1%
📊 Expected: 4.2%
🔻 June Revision: -37K jobs
The headline is clearly weaker than expected, with June also revised lower. The data points to a sharper-than-anticipated cooling in the U.S. labor market.
💰 For markets, this could be significant. A weaker jobs report may strengthen expectations for Fed rate cuts, potentially supporting risk assets such as Bitcoin, equities and gold.
👀 The key question now is how Treasury yields and Fed rate expectations react. If markets price in a more dovish Fed, $BTC could see renewed upside momentum.A notable signal is emerging—the Spend Output Profit Rate (SOPR) for Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) has fallen below 1.0, dropping to 0.92. This means that the group of long-term holders as a whole is selling at a loss, which has historically been interpreted as an early signal of "surrender." Key Background: Who is currently under pressure? However, this signal needs to be viewed in specific context: long-term holders overall still have a floating profit: the average holding cost for this group is about $49,300, and even if SOPR falls below 1, the current token price is still about 30% above its cost line. This means this is not an industry-wide panic sell-off, but rather rather some "younger" long-term holders with higher holding costs being under pressure. The main contradiction remains among short-term holders: Analysts emphasize that the main pressure in the current market remains concentrated on short-term holders. These participants have a cost base closer to market prices and are more sensitive to price fluctuations. Changes in this indicator usually occur during market stress phases but do not yet constitute a clear trend signal. For long-term observers, this is a variable worth adding to the watchlist. $BTC $ETH $BTC #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation? #CLARITY投票或延至9月, ethical differences remain unresolved Major storage chip manufacturers' Q3 orders rose 19%, boosting SanDisk, while crypto storage concept tokens remain inactive
Overseas storage manufacturers disclosed a 19% quarter-on-quarter increase in flash memory orders for Q3, signaling a recovery in the industry cycle.
SanDisk rose 2.04% intraday, stimulated by positive industry news, attracting short-term capital inflows into the entire storage chip sector.
Micron and Hynix concept stocks also rose simultaneously, marking the official start of the hardware cycle rally.
In contrast, all storage-related tokens within the crypto circle fluctuated downward throughout the day, with a 24-hour average decline of 1.86%.
The capital market clearly distinguishes between real industry cycles and speculative concept tokens.
U.S. storage companies hold real orders, factory capacity, and spot chip prices, providing a fundamental floor for the market.
Storage-themed tokens in the crypto sector merely ride the hype without any real business support.
When the storage industry cycle rally begins, funds flow directly to U.S. stock market real storage companies.
They do not waste effort hyping up baseless altcoins.
The fundamental differences between sectors make the U.S. stock sector rally completely independent and unable to influence the crypto circle. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
According to the latest data, ADP private sector employment in July increased by only 44,000, far below the expected 70,000; June nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000; employment data for the previous two months was revised down by 74,000. Employment is clearly cooling, but the core PCE year-on-year stubbornly remains at 3.7%. Coupled with geopolitical factors pushing up oil prices, the risk of inflation rebound intensifies. CME data shows a 55% probability of a 25bp rate hike in September. The Federal Reserve currently prioritizes suppressing inflation, and weak employment is insufficient to reverse tightening expectations. Cryptocurrency risk assets are under pressure and fluctuating accordingly. I remain cautiously observant, patiently waiting for the market to gradually warm up.
$SNDK
$BICO
$SOL
This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Observation of three small-cap targets: intense volatility, prominent shakeout characteristics
Let's talk about three small-cap assets with exaggerated recent volatility, where the back-and-forth market easily cuts traders back and forth.
First, BICO.
I hold a 3x leveraged short position with an entry cost at 0.0402, estimated liquidation at 0.051, current quote 0.0403, and the account is basically at breakeven.
Reviewing its price range, the highest reached 0.066, the lowest dropped to 0.011, and 0.04 is right at the midpoint of the entire range. From technical indicators, MACD shows a golden cross pattern, DIFF value 0.00366 is above, red bars at 0.0062, indicating short-term bulls still dominate the market.
Open interest expanded from 220 million to 266 million, showing continuous new positions entering the market, with longs and shorts hedging against each other. Even though 3x leverage is already risky for small caps, I still choose to enter the game.
Next, BEAT.
Current price 1.94, 24-hour range 1.60–2.47. Within a single day, it surged nearly 50%, then fell over 30%, with very long upper and lower shadows on the candlestick, repeatedly piercing.
MACD formed a death cross, and the green momentum bars continue to expand. Open interest is 3.12 million, significantly higher than usual.
This movement is not a normal pullback but more of a capital-driven shakeout. Rapid upward surge blows out short positions; then a fierce dump sweeps long chips, cutting market participants both ways.
It's hard to tell if the main force is distributing chips while exiting or collecting chips at low levels. The previous low at 1.60, if it can withstand market testing again to confirm support, will present a noteworthy trading opportunity.
Finally, KMNO.
Currently up 10%, price at 0.0203, daily high 0.0235, low 0.0179. Its trading logic is very similar to BEAT, also rising first then falling back, but with relatively milder fluctuations.
MACD golden cross formed, DIFF is above, red momentum bars continue strengthening. Open interest rose from 39 million to 43.34 million, with many funds continuously adding positions.
However, the 0.0235 price level has failed to break through three times in a row. For such small caps, simply looking at candlestick patterns has limited reference value; focus more on volume and open interest data.
Comparing the three targets together:
BICO rose slightly by 9%, and I chose to position shorts at relatively high levels; BEAT fell 6%, with candlesticks full of long upper and lower shadows; KMNO rose 10% but failed to break previous highs.
Their commonality is obvious: small market cap, heavy capital control traces, all currently in repeated shakeout phases.
Any random announcement can drive prices to surge 50% or plunge 30%, making the market seem like child's play. My short position on BICO is not purely driven by technical signals but also mixed with subjective market sentiment, judging that this round of rise may retreat.
Since the position is established, take-profit and stop-loss are all preset. 0.051 as the liquidation line gives this trade enough volatility tolerance, just hoping not to be mistakenly stopped out by a sudden spike.
For small-cap targets, always participate with light positions.
If the judgment is wrong, exit decisively; if the expected profit is reached, do not linger—act quickly and decisively. Do not bring subjective emotions or obsessions into these kinds of assets. Watch closely, my right hand is holding up a golden chip worth a full $16.8 billion, and your eyes—haven't they already been fixed on that noisy chip-making desert in Texas, following the dazzling white light? 🎩🕊️🃏
A classic trick. This is definitely a top-tier physical-level sleight of hand.
The public is always easily hypnotized by huge numbers and grand illusions. See, Musk casually reshuffles the deck, wiping away the old routine of outsourcing computing chips, and casually throws down a trump card named "Terafab." An initial investment of $1.68 billion, local tax incentives, SpaceX's promise to invest at least $5 billion by 2030, and the creation of thousands of jobs in the future... This series of dazzling gestures instantly pulls everyone's attention into the future vision of autonomous driving, robotics, and space data centers.
But as a fraud magician who has long observed the flow of cards in the shadows, I care more about the places the spotlight can't reach—those "visual errors" obscured by smoke.
Have you noticed? How exactly is the total expenditure allocated? Where is the precise construction timeline? What are the exact boundaries of responsibilities between Tesla and SpaceX? All the most critical card information is cleverly shrouded in a delicate mist. In the magic world, this kind of blurring is called "dark box concealment." The more spectacular the stage sound effects and momentum, the safer the dealer's moves to shift assets and adjust cash flow under the table.
On the crypto digital card table, the intense linkage of the US stock token $XLITE pushes this illusion to its climax. Retail investors see the festive symbols in the news headlines and think they've seen through the main player's strategy, eagerly betting real money on $XLITE, trying to capture the valuation bonus brought by autonomous computing chips.
Such adorable spectators. You think you're buying a ticket to future technology, but in reality, you're just cooperating with the house in a show of pumping the price to lure more buyers. Retail investors watch the doves on stage fly to space, while the house behind the scenes uses high-frequency chip shuffling to secretly convert the originally heavy cash flow bleeding pressure into high-premium token liquidity in the secondary market.
This play is called a "double bottom box" in illusionism. The upper box holds the infinite valuation imagination space of "autonomous computing chips breaking free from dependency," while the lower box hides a massive capital expenditure black hole that severely squeezes free cash flow. Tens of billions of dollars in hard investments will inevitably bring a severe cash drain effect on financial reports in the short term. But as long as the audience is still amazed by the "chip-making to save the country" drama, this valuation transfer illusion can continue to play.
Don't rush to applaud this grand chip-making gamble—when the magician turns the entire card table into a chip factory, the outcome of the game no longer depends on the cards in your hand, because what you paid a high price for is nothing but the illusion left in the center of the stage before the spotlight fades.
#TeslaSpaceXTerafab The previous text mentioned the conclusion and decision status regarding the Clarity Act. Currently, the bill is reported in the media to have its vote postponed to around September 14.
This raises an issue that suppresses the decision to short-sell.
In the past nearly two months, the media hype about the Clarity Act was that "the final deadline must be reached before Congress recesses in August, otherwise it will be postponed until 2030."
Therefore, the main force now sees that since the recess is about to start, how come the vote is postponed to September?
This is a defensive wall consolidated by the bullish media, and because of this bullish group, even if the bill fails as mentioned on the 4th, the market won't crash to a new low of 57. This is due to the support from this bullish group.
The postponement of the vote to around September 14 is a delaying tactic. It is known that September 14 is 2-3 weeks before the midterm elections, and the actual chance of scheduling the vote on the 14th is very low, but the so-called "very low chance" still allows for hype.
This is the key reason why short-sellers are worried about the low-probability but possible risk of the bill passing successfully, making it difficult to aggressively short.
Therefore, the article on the 4th mentioned that if the concrete bill fails soon, panic would occur before the 10th, but the problem is that they dare not act.
Next, there is a major event on August 11-12.
I am not sure what it is, but it is a big bullish event.
$BTC 🤗Extra!🤗Extra!: US nonfarm payroll data is out
As soon as this data came out, I just laughed. Nonfarm payrolls in July decreased by 23,000, while the expectation was an increase of 80,000, so jobs directly contracted and turned negative. Looking at inflation still stuck high at 3.8%, this clearly means the economy is not doing well and prices are extremely high.
What does this mean for $BTC? The underlying logic is definitely bearish.
The Federal Reserve now dares not cut interest rates, fearing inflation will explode, nor dare to raise rates, fearing employment will collapse. In the end, they can only choose to hold high interest rates stubbornly, stop printing money, tighten liquidity, so $BTC, which relies on liquidity to rise, has to take a hit.
But don’t panic in the short term: with bad data, the market first bets that the Fed won’t continue to be hawkish, so $BTC might not fall but rebound a bit. But this doesn’t change the essence—there’s no real easing, it’s just a show.
Sigh! Be patient. I’m waiting to act only when $BTC is above 40,000.
The rest of the time, just watch the show.U.S. crypto-related concept stocks on average fell 3.7% intraday, significantly underperforming the broader market's 1.9% gain.
Before the market opened, U.S. crypto-related concept stocks collectively came under pressure, with individual stocks averaging a 3.7% intraday decline.
Coinbase dropped 3.9%, and mining sector stocks generally declined, underperforming the broader market's 1.9% intraday gain.
The overall U.S. tech sector showed strength in rotation, with AI hardware leaders continuously hitting new highs.
Only the crypto-related sector experienced an independent downward trend.
This market data sends a very clear signal.
At this stage, investors are not only unwilling to enter the spot crypto market, but even compliant listed crypto concept stocks are being abandoned by capital.
The U.S. stock market is now divided into two camps: mainstream industrial tech assets and marginalized crypto risk assets.
Speculative funds are only willing to switch back and forth between computing power chips, storage, and AI software.
The crypto sector faces high regulatory risks and unstable profitability, and has been excluded by mainstream capital.
Earlier, U.S. crypto stocks and spot Bitcoin prices moved in tandem, mutually boosting sentiment.
Now, the two markets operate independently; no matter how lively the U.S. bull market is, it is difficult to revive the crypto sector.September Fed rate cut expectations rise to 83%, Nasdaq futures surge 0.84%, Bitcoin remains flat
After the US July nonfarm payroll data came in below expectations, the market's expectation for a Fed rate cut in September rose to 83%.
Following the news, Nasdaq futures briefly surged 0.84%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 7.3 basis points.
All compliant risk assets received positive stimulus, with all growth sectors in the US stock market collectively recovering.
Gold rose 2.71% in a single day, attracting a large volume of buying in the precious metals market.
Only the cryptocurrency market reacted sluggishly; Bitcoin spiked briefly before quickly retreating.
Over 24 hours, it ultimately fell slightly by 0.53%, showing no price elasticity typical of an easing cycle.
Previously, whenever liquidity easing news emerged, Bitcoin always led all risk assets in gains.
Now, institutional understanding has updated, with easing benefits prioritized for US stock assets supported by real industries.
AI server orders, flash memory chip cycles, and enterprise cloud business revenues are all solid industrial earnings.
Bitcoin lacks operating income and real industry chain demand, so it cannot capture macro liquidity benefits.
Even if a rate cut is officially implemented in the future, the crypto sector will still struggle to start a rally without exclusive positive catalysts. Overnight U.S. stocks: 87% of tech stocks have market volatility opportunities, crypto market: 83% of altcoins closed lower in 24 hours
The U.S. stock market slightly retreated 0.24% overnight, with 87% of tech subsector stocks still presenting tradable market opportunities during the session.
Capital rotated back and forth among computing power, flash storage, cloud services, and AI software sectors, with hotspots continuously shifting.
SanDisk's single-day trading volume reached $26.3 billion, with active long-short battles remaining intense.
However, crypto market data is very bleak, with 83% of altcoins closing lower over the past 24 hours.
The vast majority of small-cap altcoins have daily trading volumes below $800,000, indicating severe lack of trading depth.
Some coins only experienced brief rallies driven by short-term project news, without any sector-wide momentum.
The U.S. stock market has already established a mature and healthy capital cycle.
After one sector pulls back, capital immediately switches to the next sector with positive catalysts.
The crypto market lacks new off-exchange capital inflows, and on-exchange liquidity is thinning day by day.
Capital now prioritizes stable-yielding, hard-core tech sectors in U.S. stocks, unwilling to sink into the liquidity-starved altcoin market.
The polarization of market returns accelerates the complete separation between U.S. stocks and the crypto market. It's out, the non-farm payrolls delivered a big surprise!
US July non-farm employment decreased by 23,000, while the market expected an increase of 80,000, missing by 100,000 directly. May and June data were also revised downwards, cutting a total of 103,000 jobs. Simply put, the job market is much weaker than everyone thought.
With the shoe dropping, the market took off immediately. BTC surged in a straight line from around 64,000 to 65,234, up 1.3% in 24 hours, and ETH also rose above 1,931, up 1.68%. The 10-year US Treasury yield plummeted to 4.627%, and the US dollar index also plunged.
The core logic is simple: the worse the non-farm data, the lower the rate hike expectations, and the higher the risk assets rise.
The probability of a rate hike in September dropped directly from a high level to below 50%. Traders are starting to bet that rate hikes may only happen in December or even later. Last week they were still worried about a September hike; now the narrative has shifted to "the economy might not hold up."
To be honest, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, but mainly because 264,000 people directly exited the labor force, shrinking the denominator, so the unemployment rate naturally fell. This is not a real employment improvement, but rather "people who can't find jobs simply stopped looking."
Short-term positive news is in place; whether BTC can hold above 65,000 is key. Resistance is at 65,500-66,000, support at 64,500. This rebound is driven by sentiment; whether it can continue depends on how the next few days digest it. Don't think the bull market is back just because of a rise; be rational and control your position.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC #特朗普称通胀迎来好消息 Wall Street giants officially enter locked positions: BlackRock has deployed $311 billion of European money market fund issuance shares on-chain to the Ethereum mainnet, and Binance's tokenized stock business scale surged 600% in a single month. Traditional fiat assets are irreversibly channeling long-term, sedimented liquidity into crypto networks through the RWA (Real World Assets) track.
Here, a key fact must be clarified: it is not that $311 billion was directly invested in cryptocurrencies, but that trillion-level traditional cash management assets have, for the first time, placed bookkeeping, clearing, and share circulation on the Ethereum chain.
The significance is not an immediate explosive market rally, but the opening of a compliant channel for traditional institutional funds to enter and exit blockchain. In the future, government bonds, money market funds, and stock assets can circulate directly on-chain. Ethereum will no longer be just a public chain for trading crypto but will become the settlement infrastructure for traditional finance. The explosive growth in Binance's tokenized stock data confirms the global demand for 24/7 uninterrupted on-chain asset trading. RWA has moved from conceptual narrative to a sustained inflow of incremental mainline.
On the macro side, a major geopolitical reversal has occurred: the US and Iran reached an agreement to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, quickly clearing risk premiums and causing a collective plunge in commodities.
The decline in oil prices directly lowers inflation expectations, with the market pricing in an early rate cut window, and global short-term risk appetite rapidly warming up.
Two main lines overlap:
In the medium to long term, RWA brings a narrative revaluation of institutional funds, benefiting Ethereum's underlying infrastructure logic; in the short term, geopolitical easing restores risk asset sentiment.
But it is important to distinguish between expectations and realization: positive news does not mean an immediate unilateral surge. The market remains in a phase of oscillation and directional choice. After a news-driven rebound, sustained volume expansion is still needed to confirm the validity of a breakout.
⚠️ Market uncertainties remain: the geopolitical agreement is fragile and may fluctuate again at any time; RWA fund transmission is a slow variable and will not directly cause violent price spikes in the short term. Control your positions and avoid blindly chasing highs based solely on news.The U.S. July employment report sent a complex signal: the job market has cooled significantly, but the unemployment rate has not worsened. The biggest contradiction in this data is not "employment is good or bad," but rather that the market is beginning to reprice—is the U.S. economy on a soft landing, or is it entering a phase of growth pressure? 1. Nonfarm payrolls turn negative, employment engine slows In July, U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, far below the market expectation of an increase of 80,000 and below the previous increase of 57,000. This means: * New employment moving directly from low growth to negative growth; * Companies' willingness to hire has significantly decreased; * Labor demand is weaker than previously predicted by the market. Among them: * Private sector employment increased by only 30,000; * Market expectation is an increase of 78,000; * The previous value was an increase of 49,000 people. The core issue is: American companies are not suddenly experiencing a wave of layoffs, but are reducing new job creations. This is usually an early signal of a weakening employment cycle. Companies often do not immediately lay off large-scale staff, but instead freeze hiring and reduce expansion plans. Only when new jobs continue to decline can this potentially be passed on to the unemployment rate. ⸻ 2. Why is the market tighter when the unemployment rate is falling? July unemployment rate: * Actual: 4.1% * Expected: 4.2% * Previous: 4.2% On the surface, this seems positive. But the market is not just focused on unemployment rates; rather, it is the ability of companies to create jobs. A decline in unemployment may be affected by: * Changes in labor force participation rate; * Job seekersBitcoin spot ETFs have seen net capital outflows for 11 consecutive trading days, with the largest single-day outflow reaching $126 million
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net capital outflows for eleven straight trading days, with the highest single-day capital flight amounting to $126 million.
Institutional capital is continuously withdrawing from the crypto sector, no longer treating crypto assets as risk-hedging allocation targets.
In contrast, institutional holdings in leading U.S. tech companies continue to rise.
Microsoft's institutional ownership stands at 72.4%, Nvidia's institutional holdings account for 68.1%, with long-term funds steadily increasing positions in AI leaders.
In the trading environment of the past two years, many large asset management institutions allocated Bitcoin to hedge against the drawdown risk of U.S. growth stocks.
Now, with the AI industry cycle's certainty greatly increased, institutions can directly hold large positions in U.S. tech stocks to gain returns.
There is no longer a need to use cryptocurrencies for asset hedging.
The choices of institutional funds are the core reason for the decoupling of the two asset classes' market trends.
The U.S. stock market relies on large institutional capital rotation to produce independent price movements.
The crypto market is left with only short-term retail investors and contract traders maneuvering in the market.
As long as the current situation of ETF capital outflows does not improve, the crypto market will find it difficult to keep pace with the U.S. stock market's rhythm. #Uniswap Launches a Launchpad, Can UNI Open a New Narrative?
Here it is, Uniswap did something big last night, personally launching a launchpad on Robinhood Chain called pools.trade.
The biggest difference between pools.trade and other launchpads is that it charges creators zero fees, only collecting the standard 0.25% LP fee from Uniswap v4 pools. Moreover, every token launched comes with permanently locked liquidity. It offers two launch modes: one is "instant launch," like Pump.fun’s one-click token issuance; the other is "crowdfunding launch," using a four-hour TWAP to prevent sniper bots.
This move is actually quite strategic.
Previously, Uniswap was just a "trading backend"—anyone launching tokens had to first use other launchpads before finally adding liquidity on Uniswap. Now it directly reaches upstream to the "issuance entry point." Robinhood Chain is already a hotbed for retail Meme trading, with Uniswap accounting for over 90% of its trading volume. By taking over issuance, it basically controls the entire liquidity gateway of the chain.
Market reactions and data are quite straightforward.
On launch day, Uniswap V4’s trading volume on Robinhood Chain hit $73.6 million, surpassing Ethereum mainnet. The number of tokens launched that day reached 12,000, exceeding the combined total of Flap and Pons. UNI’s price once surged to $4.4, rebounding over 80% from the early July low. From front-end to back-end, from token birth to trading death, Uniswap has swallowed the entire launch process with zero fees and automated market making.
But this also cut into others’ market share.
PONS was previously the leading launchpad on Robinhood Chain. Once Uniswap entered, its market cap dropped from a high of $67 million to below $20 million. The founder of Bankr publicly expressed dissatisfaction and even contacted the Sushi founder to jointly create pools.fun to compete.
Additionally, pools.trade’s first day didn’t produce many high market cap tokens; FRONG was about $7 million, POOLS less than $2 million. This shows that having good tools isn’t enough; you also need "golden dogs" that can ignite sentiment, otherwise the launchpad is just a bunch of ignored contracts.
For UNI, the long-term logic here is indeed more important than short-term price.
The TokenJar mechanism is already running; protocol fees on Robinhood Chain will be used to buy back and burn UNI. UNI is gradually transforming from a pure governance token into a deflationary asset supported by real cash flow. Standard Chartered’s year-end target price is $6.5. Whether this logic can sustain depends on whether pools.trade can continuously generate trading volume. If it only shifts existing liquidity from elsewhere, UNI’s rise will be one-off; if it can attract more new users and capital, the narrative space is much larger.
I think Uniswap’s move is very right. In the DEX track, trading volume has reached its peak; it must extend upstream and downstream to open new growth space. But competition in the launchpad track is extremely fierce; the key is whether it can produce real "golden dogs." Short-term data looks strong, but long-term we still need to observe if it can continuously attract quality projects and sufficient trading heat. 🔥What Trump said sounds like praise for Waller, but in fact, it's a reassurance to the market.
Consider the context. Waller just recently took a hawkish stance, saying that if inflation isn't controlled, there will be a rate hike in September, which shook the global markets. Then Trump turned around and said: interest rate decisions are not solely up to him; there are many people on the committee.
In other words, Trump is cooling down Waller's hawkish remarks.
But there are several details worth pondering here.
First, Trump specifically mentioned a "politicized committee." This term is used very interestingly. The Fed has always claimed to be an independent institution, free from political interference. Trump's words imply: don't talk to me about central bank independence; those people also watch political winds. The midterm elections are approaching, and raising rates now wouldn't benefit the Republican Party. Trump is using public opinion to pressure the Fed.
Second, he said, "I won't criticize him." On the surface, this gives Waller face, but in reality, it draws a clear boundary—Waller's statements do not represent Trump's views. If the market crashes later due to rate hike expectations, Trump can pass the blame: I don't decide; the committee does.
Third, and most crucially, Trump's words impact market sentiment.
Previously, the market feared Waller alone calling the shots, being hawkish to the extreme. Now Trump steps in to smooth things over, saying there's a committee and everyone has a say. This effectively dampens the extreme expectation of a "September rate hike." The market fears not the rate hike itself but uncertainty. Although Trump's words don't change any substantive policy, they make the market feel "there's still room for maneuver."
What does this mean for the crypto space?
In the short term, it's somewhat positive. BTC has been suffocated by rate hike expectations these days; Trump's words at least ease the panic a bit. If the market starts repricing the possibility that "the Fed might not really dare to hike rates," risk assets could see a recovery.
But don't get too excited.
The more Trump interferes with the Fed, the more the Fed's independence is questioned. In the long run, a "politicized" Fed is scarier than a "hawkish" Fed because policies become more unpredictable—today Trump pressures not to hike, tomorrow a new president might pressure to hike. The market fears not bad news but not knowing what will happen tomorrow.
And don't forget, Trump said "not solely decided by Waller," not "no rate hike." There are more hawks on the committee besides Waller; Kashkari and Daly are tough players. When it comes to voting, hikes will happen if needed.
My judgment:
BTC is now at 64,000, lacking catalysts to go higher but supported below. Trump's words give bulls a breather but can't change the overall cautious atmosphere during the data-heavy August period. Tonight there's the nonfarm payrolls report, next week CPI; the real test is yet to come.
In terms of trading, don't rush in just because of one sentence from Trump. Listen to him, but real decisions depend on data. If nonfarm and CPI exceed expectations, not even Trump, but no one can stop the Fed from hiking.
There is a long-term logic worth considering: if the Fed's independence is truly eroded by politics, the dollar's credit foundation will be shaken. When that day comes, BTC, as a "decentralized hard asset" narrative, might see an epic opportunity. But that's far off; for now, just survive.
Do you think Trump is genuinely trying to calm things down or playing political games? Let's discuss in the comments.#黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？
$XAU Gold has already surged to 4325 USD, reaching an intraday high of 4327, firmly holding above 4300; $XAG Silver is even stronger, peaking at 64.63 USD, showing more volatility than gold. Meanwhile, BTC has been stuck around 64300 for a whole day, locked tightly within the 64500-65500 range.
Where is the promised "digital gold"? When precious metals rise, it doesn’t follow at all.
Many wonder, since both are supposed to hedge inflation and fiat depreciation, why is there such a big difference? To be frank, these rallies are fundamentally different.
First, why are precious metals going crazy? Gold’s surge is purely driven by safe-haven demand plus central bank gold purchases as a floor. Global geopolitical tensions keep fluctuating, and central banks keep buying non-stop, effectively welding a bottom under gold prices. Any market jitters push funds into gold. Silver benefits even more: besides riding the safe-haven wave with gold, it also has an industrial demand boost—photovoltaics and electronics sectors have persistent shortages, so silver enjoys dual support from safe-haven and industrial demand, making its price more elastic than gold.
Now look at BTC, the awkward part is: it currently holds neither the status of a safe-haven asset nor the benefits of a risk asset.
In true panic, institutional funds first choose gold, a hard currency with millennia of consensus, and won’t rush into BTC; instead, when the market fluctuates, BTC is treated as a high-volatility risk asset and gets sold off first. On the other hand, all the hot money is flowing into the US stock AI sector, while crypto liquidity is tight and new funds are slow to enter. Relying only on existing funds to push the market can’t drive a big rally.
Simply put, the market funds are clearly divided: those seeking stability and safety buy gold and silver, those betting on growth buy US stock AI, and BTC is stuck in the middle with no love or support.
Don’t rush to declare the "digital gold narrative" dead; it’s not that dramatic. At this stage, BTC’s risk attributes far outweigh its safe-haven qualities, and it correlates much more with the Nasdaq than with gold. For BTC to resonate with precious metals, either the Fed must genuinely enter a rate-cutting cycle, flooding liquidity into crypto; or the US stock AI rally must pause, prompting funds to seek new high-yield outlets, which might then rotate into crypto.
If you hold BTC, don’t panic. Gold and silver have their own logic for rising, and $BTC has its own rhythm—no need to force comparisons. If you believe in the long-term logic, hold on; if you want to trade short-term to catch safe-haven moves, silver’s volatility is a better bet. Don’t get nervous and add BTC just because precious metals are rising, and don’t cut losses hastily just because BTC isn’t following. They’re two different things—don’t confuse them. 🇺🇸 FED RATE HIKE CASE JUST GOT WEAKER
Today, the US unemployment data came in at 4.1% vs. 4.2% expected, its lowest level in 14 months.
This shows that the labor market is strong, but that's not true.
US economy lost -23,000 jobs in July while the expectations were of +80,000.
The private sector added 30,000 jobs while the expectations were of 78,000.
So, despite unemployment heading lower, more people lost their jobs last month.
And the Fed doesn't hike rates when the labor market is weak, as it makes the situation worse.$BTC $ETH The core contradiction in this employment report lies in the coexistence of job contraction and a falling unemployment rate: nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, with expectations of an increase of 80,000 and a previous value of an increase of 57,000, marking a direct shift from low-level job gains to losses. Private sector employment increased by 30,000, below the expected 78,000 and also below the previous 49,000, indicating weaker labor demand than the market had previously anticipated, and interest rate path pricing may shift to place greater emphasis on downside employment risks.
The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, below the expected 4.2%, which diverges from the negative nonfarm payrolls. A more direct signal comes from new jobs created by businesses, with private sector expansion slowing and overall nonfarm employment already contracting.
Wage growth is cooling simultaneously. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1% month-over-month in July, below the expected 0.3% and the previous 0.3%, indicating marginal relief in wage growth pressure. Following the Federal Reserve's most recent decision, the policy rate stands at 3.75%. The shift to negative employment and slowing wages may increase the weight of growth risks in policy discussions, but with the unemployment rate still at 4.1%, a single month's data is insufficient to confirm a shift in policy stance. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？After the non-farm payrolls, the conclusion is very clear:
BTC ＞ ETH.
I am now more willing to actively go long on BTC and wait for ETH and others to confirm a breakout.
According to the recent market data:
BTC ≈ 65,167 USD
ETH ≈ 1,929 USD
US July Non-Farm Payrolls:
Actual -23K
Expected +85K
Previous revised down to +20K
Average hourly earnings monthly rate:
Actual 0.1%
Expected 0.3%
This set of data means:
Employment turning negative + wage cooling → rate cut expectations rise.
So my judgment is:
BTC: bullish bias, 7/10
My focus tonight:
65K: current battleground
If US stocks open strong:
First target: 66.5K—67K
After breakout:
Second target: 68K
If Nasdaq, US bonds, and USD all cooperate:
Strong target: 69K—70K
The real watershed is:
67K.
If BTC can hold above 67K, and at the same time:
Nasdaq continues to rise
US 2-year yield continues to fall
DXY continues to weaken
Then I will upgrade my judgment from:
"Non-farm rebound"
to:
"BTC may be starting the next leg up."
But I also give a clear invalidation condition:
If it falls below 64K and fails to recover, I will lower my bullish expectations.
Further break below:
Around 62K
That would indicate the market may start trading:
Recession risk, not rate cut benefits.
ETH: wait until 2000 to decide
ETH's biggest problem now is not being cheap.
But:
It has not yet proven it is turning strong again.
I only watch one key level:
2000 USD
If ETH breaks through and holds above 2000:
First target: 2050—2080
If it continues strong:
Second target: around 2150
At this point, I will significantly increase ETH weighting because once the catch-up rally starts:
ETH's percentage elasticity may exceed BTC.
But if BTC has already surged to 66.5K—67K,
And ETH is still at:
1900—1950
That is clearly relative weakness.
In this case:
I would rather keep BTC and not chase ETH.
Below ETH, key support levels are:
1880—1900
If broken:
1850 → 1800
If I have to choose between the two now
My answer is:
BTC ＞ ETH
If I must split positions, I personally prefer:
BTC 70%
ETH 30%
But if the following occur:
BTC holds above 67K
+
ETH holds above 2000
+
Nasdaq remains strong
+
2Y yield continues to fall
+
DXY continues to weaken
I will start increasing ETH weighting.
Bold prediction for tonight:
BTC moves first, ETH follows.
BTC has a good chance to test 66.5K—67K first.
If US stocks do not open high then fall:
BTC continues to challenge 68K.
And ETH only when it truly stands above:
2000 USD
Will I upgrade it from:
"Oversold rebound"
to:
"Catch-up rally begins."
The conclusion is simple:
Actively bullish on BTC now, wait for ETH to confirm a breakout above 2000. $BTC $ETH I believe this recent drop in storage stocks does not signify the end of the AI storage logic; it feels more like a "re-pricing after overly high expectations" in the market.
The recent trend in the storage sector is quite interesting: the earnings reports haven't shown significant deterioration, with Western Digital and SanDisk even exceeding market expectations, yet their stock prices have fallen. The market is no longer focused on "whether there is demand," but rather on a more realistic question—can the huge demand driven by AI continue to translate into higher profits?
Over the past year, the biggest investment logic for AI storage has been "supply cannot meet demand."
HBM shortages, tight DRAM supply, and the explosion of AI server demand have led the market to assign higher valuations to storage manufacturers. But the problem is, once everyone knows demand is strong, the stock price trades not on the present but on whether the next two to three quarters can continue to exceed expectations.
Western Digital and SanDisk’s recent feedback is a typical case:
Good earnings reports, but the guidance for the next quarter didn’t offer the market bigger surprises, so investors chose to take profits first.
This indicates the market has moved from "buying certainty of growth" to "selecting quality of growth."
I actually think what really needs attention now is not whether there is storage demand, but whether the HBM bottleneck is a benefit or a limitation.
If HBM remains in long-term short supply, it’s certainly good news for storage manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix, as prices and profit margins are supported.
On the other hand, if high-end storage supply can’t keep up, it could become a limiting factor for AI chip shipments.
NVIDIA’s decision to adjust the memory configuration of some high-end products is a signal:
The AI industry doesn’t lack demand now; rather, the supply chain is entering a phase of rebalancing.
So my judgment is that in the short term, storage stocks may continue to digest high expectations, but the long-term AI infrastructure logic remains unchanged.
If I were to reorder priorities in the AI industry chain, I wouldn’t just focus on storage.
Storage benefits from the AI boom, but the real long-term value may come from companies that solve the "computing power bottleneck," including chip design, advanced packaging, and data center infrastructure.
The biggest risk in investing in the AI sector is not lack of growth, but that the market has already priced in growth for the next several years.
That’s also why the better the earnings report, the more the stock price might fall.
For these high-growth sectors, I tend to:
Watch industry trends but avoid the most crowded positions.
The best opportunities often don’t come when the market is most excited, but when expectations and reality diverge again.
Regarding this storage adjustment, I’m more focused on one question:
Is AI storage experiencing a normal cooldown, or is the market beginning to reassess the return cycle of AI capital expenditures?
This answer might be more important than the next earnings report numbers
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $SNDK $SAMSUNG $SKHYNIX Breaking news! Positive or not?
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the Nonfarm Payrolls will be released, and the US stock market is about to face a critical choice.
At 20:30 this Friday night, the July Nonfarm Employment Report will be released. This is the most important employment data after the Federal Reserve's July rate meeting and will directly rewrite the September interest rate expectations. All assets including US stocks, US bonds, and crypto will be affected.
Previously, the ADP small nonfarm data was significantly below expectations, which has already served as a warning to the market. The market is betting on a gradual cooling of employment.
Three data scenarios and their corresponding US stock market trends:
Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly stronger than expected, wages rise simultaneously
Employment is hot, delaying rate cut expectations, US bond yields rise. High-valuation AI tech and storage sectors bear the heaviest pressure; growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow Jones value blue chips are relatively resilient, leading to a differentiated market.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm significantly weaker, unemployment rate rises
The market will strengthen rate cut expectations, US bond yields fall, benefiting tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware may see a recovery rebound. But beware of a risk: data too poor may trigger market concerns about economic recession, causing a short-term broad sell-off.
Scenario 3: Data basically matches expectations
Employment cools moderately, neither hot nor cold. US stocks continue the current split pattern, Dow Jones is relatively strong, Nasdaq fluctuates at high levels, and the market returns to earnings report logic with continued sector rotation.
Putting aside Nonfarm, the upcoming US market outlook:
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility after earnings disproof. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the earnings-driven expectation downgrade issue has not completely disappeared. The key focus is whether MU's critical support can hold; if it holds, it represents sectoral differentiated recovery; if it breaks down effectively, this round of storage market will enter mid-term valuation digestion. Do not mistake the oversold rebound for a new main upward wave.
2. Market structural differentiation will continue. Stocks with earnings guidance exceeding expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally is over, making stock picking more difficult.
3. Risks still cannot be ignored. The huge unlocking pressure of $SPCX remains and will occasionally disturb the market, amplifying intraday spike volatility.
Key stocks to watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with fading momentum and capital outflows:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Current market logic summary:
$BTC — The liquidity hub of the crypto market, determining the overall market heat level
$ETH — Institutional funds continue to accumulate, slowly consolidating chips through fluctuations
$SOL — The resilient player in the Layer1 track, with considerable upside when the market starts
$TAO & $WLD — AI mainline heat continues, repeatedly favored by capital
$HYPE — Market speculation sentiment gauge, used to judge current risk appetite
$DOGE & $ZEC — Retail sentiment window, directly reflecting short-term speculative heat Breaking news! Positive or not?
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the Nonfarm Payrolls will be released, and the US stock market is about to face a critical choice.
At 20:30 this Friday night, the July Nonfarm Employment Report will be released. This is the most important employment data after the Federal Reserve's July rate meeting and will directly rewrite the September interest rate expectations. All assets including US stocks, US bonds, and crypto will be affected.
Previously, the ADP small nonfarm data was significantly below expectations, which has already served as a warning to the market. The market is betting on a gradual cooling of employment.
Three data scenarios and their corresponding US stock market trends:
Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly stronger than expected, wages rise simultaneously
Employment is hot, delaying rate cut expectations, US bond yields rise. High-valuation AI tech and storage sectors bear the heaviest pressure; growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow Jones value blue chips are relatively resilient, leading to a differentiated market.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm significantly weaker, unemployment rate rises
The market will strengthen rate cut expectations, US bond yields fall, benefiting tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware may see a recovery rebound. But beware of a risk: data too poor may trigger market concerns about economic recession, causing a short-term broad sell-off.
Scenario 3: Data basically matches expectations
Employment cools moderately, neither hot nor cold. US stocks continue the current split pattern, Dow Jones is relatively strong, Nasdaq fluctuates at high levels, and the market returns to earnings report logic with continued sector rotation.
Putting aside Nonfarm, the upcoming US market outlook:
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility after earnings disproof. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the earnings-driven expectation downgrade issue has not completely disappeared. The key focus is whether MU's critical support can hold; if it holds, it represents sectoral differentiated recovery; if it breaks down effectively, this round of storage market will enter mid-term valuation digestion. Do not mistake the oversold rebound for a new main upward wave.
2. Market structural differentiation will continue. Stocks with earnings guidance exceeding expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally is over, making stock picking more difficult.
3. Risks still cannot be ignored. The huge unlocking pressure of $SPCX remains and will occasionally disturb the market, amplifying intraday spike volatility.
Key stocks to watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with fading momentum and capital outflows:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Current market logic summary:
$BTC — The liquidity hub of the crypto market, determining the overall market heat level
$ETH — Institutional funds continue to accumulate, slowly consolidating chips through fluctuations
$SOL — The resilient player in the Layer1 track, with considerable upside when the market starts
$TAO & $WLD — AI mainline heat continues, repeatedly favored by capital
$HYPE — Market speculation sentiment gauge, used to judge current risk appetite
$DOGE & $ZEC — Retail sentiment window, directly reflecting short-term speculative heat