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BTC above 65000 represents a global risk appetite recovery, which is positive for US tech growth stocks, but the storage sector has its own independent cycle (price increases + earnings expectations) and will not blindly follow the rise, leading to differentiation.
🎯 Practical signals to watch this week (just focus on these 2):
✅ Healthy resonance (bullish rebound): BTC holds above 65000 with volume + SK Hynix and Micron strengthening simultaneously → SanDisk has a chance to continue its recovery
❌ False rally differentiation (cautious): BTC oscillates around 65000 with shrinking volume, but the storage sector remains weak and funds do not follow → this is an emotional pulse, avoid chasing highs
BTC stabilizing above 65000 only indicates a recovery in market risk appetite, which is an emotional plus.
However, the storage sector has its own cycle, and the overhead trapped positions pressure remains.
Differentiation will occur: overall market sentiment warming ≠ direct reversal in storage; low-volume rebounds are prone to spike and fall back.
Focus on whether SK Hynix and Micron can keep pace simultaneously; relying solely on crypto sentiment makes sustained rallies difficult.
Do you think the storage sector can leverage this wave of sentiment to stage a recovery this week?
A Yes, following the risk appetite rebound
B No, trapped positions suppress, leading to spike and fall back
#In recent years, the crypto market has often discussed one question: Is there really a next full bull market for altcoins? But the market in 2026 is giving a different answer. Not all projects are waiting for the next bull market. Many projects are disappearing altogether. CoinDesk's latest survey, citing RootData data, shows that since 2026, more than 100 crypto projects have closed, gone bankrupt, or ceased operations for extended periods, and the pace of closures is accelerating. In just the week of the end of July, several projects announced closures or entered bankruptcy proceedings. This may be one of the most important changes this year for altcoin investors to seriously consider. 1. In previous bear markets, coin prices dropped; now it's the company really can't survive. In recent bear markets, many projects have seen tokens drop by 90%, but teams can still rely on previous financing, foundation funds, and token reserves to survive for years. The problem for 2026 is: many projects' token reserves have already shrunk significantly. CoinDesk research points out that many altcoins have dropped 70%–90% from their peaks, causing the project's previously token-denominated fiscal reserves to shrink sharply. This creates a very real death cycle: coin price drops, → project finances shrink, → unable to continue paying for development and operations, → team layoffs, → ecosystem development further declines, → market continues to sell off tokens, → finances shrink again. When this cycle lasts long enough, the project may not even "lose its tokens," but rather the team disappearing first. 2. The era of VC rescue projects is also changing. In the previous cycle, a single agreement was even considered commercialDeFi TVL rebounded from 69.4B at the end of June to 75.9B at the end of July, with macro easing expectations being the main driver.
However, three attacks in July exposed systemic risks: Summer.fi flash loan 6M, Bonzo/Hedera oracle manipulation 6M, Bonzo/Hedera oracle manipulation 9.05M, Ostium keeper attack $18M.
Common pattern: the attack targets were not the contracts themselves, but the oracle price feeds, keeper liquidations, and timestamp verifications—these "automated accounting layers."
The good news is that Bybit obtained court support to freeze assets related to Lazarus's $1.5B hacker funds. On-chain crime recovery is becoming a reality.
Retail investor lesson: don't put all your coins in one protocol; prioritize projects that have undergone audits, have high TVL, and offer bug bounties. Security is always the top priority.
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ ETF capital inflow has refocused the market on a core question:
Is this round of crypto market rally driven by short-term sentiment or by institutional capital repositioning?
After the BTC ETF approval, the biggest change was not a one- or two-day price surge, but a shift in the capital structure.
Previously, the market was mainly driven by retail and crypto-native funds; now traditional capital is becoming a key force.
BTC, as digital gold, remains the top choice for institutional allocation; while ETH takes on more roles in ecosystem and financial infrastructure.
However, ETF inflows do not necessarily mean immediate price increases.
A true major rally requires sustained capital inflows combined with an improved macro environment.
If the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle and liquidity is released again, BTC and ETH could see a larger capital window.
What the market is waiting for now is not just buying pressure, but a new capital cycle.
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ The biggest change in the AI industry is happening: the market has moved from "believing in the future of AI" to "validating AI revenue."
Over the past year, memory chips have become the core beneficiaries of the AI wave, with explosive demand for HBM and high-performance memory driving rapid valuation increases for related companies.
However, recent fluctuations after earnings reports indicate that the capital market is raising its standards.
Previously, just mentioning AI was enough to attract funding; now investors focus more on one question: can the demand generated by AI truly convert into sustained profits?
This is actually a stage that any super cycle goes through.
After the internet bubble, truly great companies remained; after the new energy market boom, real leaders emerged; the future of AI will be no different.
In the short term, memory stocks may enter a high volatility phase, but in the long term, computing power demand remains a definite trend.
The real opportunity lies not in chasing hot topics, but in finding companies with genuine technological barriers during industry reshuffling.
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ The White House strikes again at the Federal Reserve: This time targeting Governor Lisa Cook
I am Lao Gao.
The White House has taken action against the Federal Reserve, not for the first time, but the second.
The target is Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Scavino sent a letter to Cook this week, stating that Trump "is considering removing you from office," giving a 21-day response period, ending August 26. The accusation: suspected mortgage fraud—declaring two properties as "primary residences" in loan documents, with potential penalties of up to 30 years in prison. This is the first time since the Federal Reserve was established in 1913 that a president has attempted to remove a governor.
---
Timeline review:
Last August, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Pruitt first accused Cook of mortgage fraud, and Trump tried to remove her, which Cook denied and filed a lawsuit. In June this year, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that Cook could remain in office during the lawsuit. But Chief Justice Roberts left a key opening—the ruling does not prevent Trump from trying again after giving proper notice and opportunity to respond. Trump had said at the time to "take appropriate action immediately," and now he has followed through.
---
Trump is doing more than just this.
Since May, when Waller became Fed Chair, Trump has had multiple private calls with him, discussing topics like war with Iran and the rise of AI. The government is also exploring further adjustments to the Fed's personnel composition. The White House admits the two often discuss economic issues but denies pressuring interest rates. Cook previously stated that Trump's attempt to remove her under these accusations is actually because she refused to yield to political pressure. Trump has long favored rate cuts, making his intentions clear.
---
Reactions:
Cook's lawyer, Abe Lowell, responded: The accusations are as baseless as a year ago, and regardless of Trump's next moves, the facts and Supreme Court precedent provide no legal grounds for removing Cook. Democratic Senator Warren clearly opposes this, emphasizing that Federal Reserve independence is crucial for economic stability.
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Why this matters deeply:
The Federal Reserve's independence is the institutional foundation of the US dollar's credit. Interest rate decisions are made by technocrats based on data, free from White House election cycle interference—this is the premise of global trust. Once this foundation is politicized, trust in dollar assets will weaken.
Three specific transmission lines:
First, short-term sentiment shock. The event occurs at a point when nonfarm payrolls are weakening and September policy expectations are being repriced. Political risk extends from policy disagreements to personnel boundaries, causing the market to reassess pricing for the dollar, US bonds, and crypto assets.
Second, transmission logic for BTC. In the medium to long term, weakening the dollar's credit foundation is positive for BTC—one source of value for non-sovereign assets is the instability of sovereign credit. But the short-term market won't price this immediately; it will first react to uncertainty-driven risk aversion. Gold has strengthened recently, while BTC oscillates near 65000 without breaking through, indicating funds are waiting for clearer signals.
Third, September rate hike probability. Nonfarm data has pushed the rate hike probability down from 60% to about 40%. Cook is a dovish governor in the FOMC; if removed, Trump may appoint a more hawkish successor, which would directly change the September meeting's voting dynamics. The current 40% hike probability could rise if the replacement is hawkish.
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What happens next:
August 26 is Cook's response deadline. In the next three weeks, the White House and Cook's team will engage in legal battles.
· If the court ultimately supports removal, the market will face an unprecedented situation—the president successfully removing a Federal Reserve governor. The dollar credit premium will be repriced, and BTC's medium to long-term narrative will strengthen.
· If the court blocks removal, short-term uncertainty will be eliminated, and the market will return to a macro data-driven rhythm, with September CPI and Fed decisions becoming core variables again.
Operationally: Continue holding long positions near 65000, move stop loss up to 64000. The direction hasn't changed, but political variables are increasing, so avoid heavy bets on direction. Wait for developments around August 26 before making further moves.
Lao Gao has finished. Think it over carefully.
$BTC $ETH $BICO
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 How will SPCX perform on Monday? After a 16% surge last week, both bulls and bears are cautious before the CPI
Brothers, SPCX just completed a violent rebound last Friday — a nearly 16% single-day surge, rising straight from $114.97 to close at $133.11. How it moves on Monday, the critical week before CPI, both bulls and bears have their cards.
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📊 Today's Opening Reference
On Monday, during normal US stock trading hours (opening at 21:30 Beijing time), SPCX's opening reference price will most likely be around $133-$135.
Last Friday's close was $133.11, with after-hours continuing a slight rise of 0.75% to $134.11. The bullish sentiment in the after-hours options market is still ongoing.
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📈 Last Week's Review: A Violent Rebound from 107 to 136
SPCX showed a textbook "bad news fully priced in" scenario last week:
Date Close Price Change Key Event
Aug 3 $114.53 — Sideways before earnings
Aug 4 $125.33 +9.43% Q2 earnings released, revenue $7.81B (+92%)
Aug 5 $108.27 -13.61% Capex $18.4B scared the market
Aug 6 $114.92 +6.14% 911.5M shares unlocked, price rose instead of falling
Aug 7 $133.11 +15.83% Short covering + institutional bottom fishing
Key signal: On August 6, the first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked (potential market value about $100B). The market had widely expected a stampede sell-off. Instead, the stock price rose rather than fell, with new selling pressure effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. "Not falling when it should" is often the strongest bullish signal.
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⚔️ Four Highlights for Today's Opening
① Short-term is overheated, beware of profit-taking
From a double bottom at $107 to $136, RSI has entered the overbought zone (70+). Funds chasing last Friday's rally have profit-taking motives. The $135-$140 range is a dense lock-in zone since IPO.
② Fundamentals remain explosive, but cash burn is also explosive
Q2 revenue $7.81B (+92%), AI revenue $2.56B (+247%), newly signed cloud contracts total $14.1B. But capital expenditure reached $18.4B, with $15.8B spent on AI infrastructure. The market oscillates between the "growth story" and "cash burn speed."
③ More unlocking pressure ahead
Although the first unlocking held firm, another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million shares each in September and October. Long-term supply pressure is not fully released yet.
④ CPI is the biggest external variable
Wednesday's CPI data will directly affect overall risk appetite. If CPI is below expectations → rate hike expectations cool down → favorable for high-valuation growth stocks (including SPCX); if CPI exceeds expectations → risk assets come under broad pressure.
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🔑 Key Price Levels at a Glance
Upside resistance: 135-140 (dense lock-in zone) → 145-155 (next resistance)
Downside support: 130-133 (short-term defense) → 124-126 (strong support, MA200 area)
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💎 Summary
SPCX violently surged from 107 to 133 last week, with the trend shifting from downtrend to rebound. But short-term overheating plus market caution before CPI means today is more likely to see high-level consolidation rather than continued violent rally.
In terms of operations, chasing above 133 requires caution; pullbacks to the 130-133 range can be watched for support strength. Before CPI lands, watching more and acting less is a safer choice.
What do you think? Can SPCX push to 140 this round? Let's chat in the comments👇
The above is only market information collation and personal opinion sharing, not any investment advice. SPCX is highly volatile, please manage risks well.
#SPCX #SpaceX #USStocks #TokenizedStocks #CPI #OKXPlanet #MichaelSaylor hints at increasing BTC holdings
Saylor is hinting at increasing BTC holdings again.
Old fans know that whenever he posts that familiar #Bitcoin holding chart, the comment section basically auto-translates to:
"Is the orange dot about to increase again?"
This tactic used to work well. When Saylor posts the chart, the market guesses a buy; when Strategy announces, $BTC sentiment warms up accordingly. Over time, this chart has almost become the crypto community's version of a “bullish signal.”
But this time I find it more interesting. Because now the market cares not just about whether he buys, but whether he can keep buying.
Strategy indeed holds a huge amount of $BTC, no doubt about that; Saylor’s narrative ability about Bitcoin remains one of the strongest in the market. The problem is, the company isn’t a retail investor and can’t just rely on “faith” alone. It also has financing costs, preferred stock dividends, stock price pressure, and cash flow constraints.
So if he really increases holdings this time, it will definitely give #BTC a short-term emotional boost. After all, when the market is most hesitant, Saylor stepping in to add positions is like a shot of confidence for the bulls.
But if it’s just posting the chart to tease without actual buying, the market might not be as easily ignited as before.
In short, Saylor’s orange dot chart is still useful, but it’s no longer a mindless bullish button.
Before, when people saw it, they thought: “The bull market faith is back.”
Now people want to know more: “Where is the money coming from this time?”
What #BTC needs most is not slogans, but real cash buying.
If Saylor continues to add, that’s emotional recovery;
If he just keeps telling stories, the market will sooner or later demand he show the books.
The real highlight this round isn’t whether the orange dot looks good, but whether there’s still ammo behind the orange dot.1. Team Information Lack Transparency
There are no real-name founders or core team resumes available through public channels, making it an anonymous team project. The project party has high authority, posing a risk of market manipulation.
2. Massive Unlocking Dilution Risk (Biggest Hidden Danger)
Two-thirds of the tokens are not yet in circulation and will continue to be unlocked in batches in the future. A large amount of early investors' and team tokens will be unlocked and sold, suppressing the price long-term.
3. Common Problem in GameFi Economic Models
Players earn BEAT by playing games, but most choose to sell and cash out; the token lacks intrinsic demand, easily leading to a "production > consumption" death spiral. This is the root cause of most blockchain games eventually collapsing.
4. Rumors of Highly Concentrated Token Holdings
Top ten whale wallets hold a large amount of circulating tokens, which can easily lead to price pumping and dumping or severe short-term crashes.
5. Extreme Volatility
Historically, daily price swings of 20%~40% are common, making it easy for leveraged players to be liquidated; the highest drop in the first half of the year was 75%, causing severe losses for retail investors entering at high prices.
6. IP Controversy: Only partial IP authorization has been obtained, not full support from the original IP owners. Official data on actual game user activity cannot be verified by third parties.
Summary of Market Characteristics
• Nature: A purely speculative mid-cap meme blockchain game token driven by hype news and community sentiment, without real profit support;
• Short-term: Positive news (new versions, partnerships, events) can quickly boost prices, but the upward momentum is weak;
• Long-term: As long as unlocking continues and the game cannot drive significant token consumption, the long-term focus tends to decline. 1. Team Information Lack Transparency
There are no real-name founders or core team resumes available through public channels, making it an anonymous team project. The project party has high authority, posing a risk of market manipulation.
2. Massive Unlocking Dilution Risk (Biggest Hidden Danger)
Two-thirds of the tokens are not yet in circulation and will continue to be unlocked in batches in the future. A large amount of early investors' and team tokens will be unlocked and sold, suppressing the price long-term.
3. Common Problem in GameFi Economic Models
Players earn BEAT by playing games, but most choose to sell and cash out; the token lacks intrinsic demand, easily leading to a "production > consumption" death spiral. This is the root cause of most blockchain games eventually collapsing.
4. Rumors of Highly Concentrated Token Holdings
Top ten whale wallets hold a large amount of circulating tokens, which can easily lead to price pumping and dumping or severe short-term crashes.
5. Extreme Volatility
Historically, daily price swings of 20%~40% are common, making it easy for leveraged players to be liquidated; the highest drop in the first half of the year was 75%, causing severe losses for retail investors entering at high prices.
6. IP Controversy: Only partial IP authorization has been obtained, not full support from the original IP owners. Official data on actual game user activity cannot be verified by third parties.
Summary of Market Characteristics
• Nature: A purely speculative mid-cap meme blockchain game token driven by hype news and community sentiment, without real profit support;
• Short-term: Positive news (new versions, partnerships, events) can quickly boost prices, but the upward momentum is weak;
• Long-term: As long as unlocking continues and the game cannot drive significant token consumption, the long-term focus tends to decline. The Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes released a hawkish divergence signal, reigniting the global risk of yen arbitrage unwind, with cross-market liquidity tightening expectations becoming the core contradiction suppressing prices currently.
In the spot market, $BTC remains volatile around $65,000, ETH is near $1,914, and market volatility is narrowing. The $64,000 to $65,000 range concentrates dense defensive buy orders; losing this level would directly open liquidity retracement space below.
The priority order driving asset pricing is: cross-market liquidity squeeze triggered by yen arbitrage unwind ranks higher than Fed rate path expectations, followed by US stock risk appetite fluctuations, with crypto native capital flows in a trailing position. The hawkish stance in the BOJ minutes regarding inflation nearing the 2% target accelerated the process of cross-market funds withdrawing from high-leverage risk assets back into yen-denominated assets.
If subsequent BOJ officials lean dovish, easing unwind pressure, combined with strengthened Fed rate cut expectations driving rebounds in US stocks and high-risk assets, BTC may test the $67,000 resistance zone after holding the key $64,000 support. At this time, a halt in yen appreciation trends would provide a window for risk assets to rebuild liquidity premiums.
If the yen strengthens sharply, accelerating arbitrage unwind, cross-market liquidation funds will prioritize withdrawals from liquidity pools such as US stocks and crypto markets. A break below the $64,000 support line would directly trigger a leverage sell-off. Under these conditions, market defenses will shift lower, and volatility will rapidly expand.
The above logic breaks down when yen arbitrage trades complete large-scale unwind and macro funds return to risk assets and leverage cycles. If the US dollar index rebounds strongly, squeezing yen appreciation space, cross-market liquidity tightening expectations will be revised again.
The key variables to watch in the next 7 days are the yen exchange rate trend, subsequent public statements by BOJ officials, and the actual buying strength supporting $BTC at the $64,000 level.
#Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ #黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？Many traders believe that MEME coins are just a temporary product of a market frenzy. But every bull market cycle has proven a pattern: when market liquidity recovers and retail investor sentiment returns, highly volatile assets often become the first target for capital. From DOGE igniting community culture, to PEPE driving a new wave of animal-themed MEME trends, and then to the explosion of numerous meme projects in the Solana ecosystem, MEME is no longer just a "joke coin." It is becoming a special asset in the crypto market: an asset for emotional liquidity. 1. Why do MEME always attract capital? There are only three core reasons: 1. Low barrier to communication. Traditional projects need explanations: technology, ecosystem, business model, while MEME only requires: a story, a symbol, and a community consensus. It lowers the barrier for retail investors to participate. During market upswings, when a large amount of new capital enters, MEME often becomes the direction most likely to generate a spreading effect. 2. The wealth effect brought by high volatility The biggest feature of the crypto market: capital chasing returns. When the market enters the risk appetite stage: investors are not satisfied with 10% or 20% and start searching for: opportunities several times, dozens of times, or even a hundredfold. MEME is more likely to experience short-term capital surges due to: low market capitalization, small circulating supply, strong community drive. 3. Community consensus becomes the new asset value. In the past: asset value = product + returns. Now, some crypto assets: asset value = consensus + traffic + attention.#Berkshire's Quarterly Net Stock Purchase of $19.8 Billion In July, the US stock market fluctuated and weakened. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) Q2 report in August provided the answer: $23.5 billion bought, $3.7 billion sold in a single quarter, net purchase about $19.8 billion, ending the previous 14 consecutive quarters of net selling.
The new leader Greg Abel's "three fires" essentially put the "opportunity cost" issue of Buffett's $364.7 billion cash pile on the table — although the US stock market is at a historical high, the company believes its own stock intrinsic value is higher than the market price, so it spent $4.5 billion on buybacks and boldly invested $10 billion to build a position in Google's parent company Alphabet (GOOGL), making it one of the top five holdings alongside Apple (AAPL), American Express (AXP), Bank of America, and Coca-Cola.
📈 Short term (3-6 months): Berkshire B shares are only 3.7% below the historical high, buybacks may slow down, combined with high-level fluctuations in the US stock market, the judgment is 📈📉 fluctuating with a bullish bias.
📈 Long term (2-3 years): Cash reserves are beginning to be systematically allocated, positions are concentrated in AI leaders and core consumer finance, Abel continues the "balanced stock and bond" approach, the judgment is 📈 bullish.
The real signal is not "Buffett bottom-fished," but the first major bet in the post-Buffett era, placed on GOOGL — this means the cash flow moat of the AI platform has received Berkshire-level endorsement.SOL's hot numbers aren't hard to read; the challenge is not to mix tone and funding direction. OKX Onchain OS recorded 20 mentions in one hour on SOL at 05:00 on August 10, including 20 mentions in X and 0 news articles; The total volume in 24 hours was 436 times. The latest hour is 1.10 times the hourly average for the long window, which is about 10% higher than the 24-hour average, which can be considered a "slight acceleration." This speed describes new discussions and is not necessarily related to market fluctuations. The tone of the text is 60% bullish, 5% bearish, and about 35% neutral, currently classified as "bullish clearly dominant." 53% bullish and 8% bearish in the 24-hour range; If there is a gap between the two windows, it should first be understood as a change in the discussion structure, rather than directly deriving a price target. I will draw these two lines separately. If the tone is too heavy but the speed of mention is slower, it means the current discussion is more positive, but the new attention hasn't accelerated; If mentions are rising and bearish are dominant, it may be risk or fault news attracting people. Even if the hype and tone are in the same direction, it still cannot be directly equated with genuine buying. Source is another limitation. Currently, SOL is "almost entirely driven by X." Social channels respond fastest, and the same topic can be reposted repeatedly; The more concentrated the source, the more the next window needs confirmation. News mentions that an increase does not automatically mean the event is true; the original announcement remains the final verifying standard. Within twenty-four hours, SOLAugust 10, 2026｜South Korea Stock Market Morning Session Opening $SKHY $SNDK $KORU
South Korean tech trends can indirectly reflect U.S. tech stock trends
KOSPI opened 0.8% higher, opening at 6306.33 points
Driving factors: Last Friday, U.S. tech and memory sectors strengthened, external sentiment warmed up;
Market characteristics: Rapid surge at open, peak gains nearly 2%, then continued to rise and fall, with gains gradually narrowing.
Capital structure: Foreign investors continue net selling, relying on domestic investors (individuals + institutions) to support the index, bullish momentum is relatively weak.
II. Core Stocks Real-time Market
SK Hynix (sector bellwether)
- Large gap up at auction, intraday peak gains over 4%;
- Current gains have fallen back to a range of 1.5%~2.7% oscillation
Key price references:
First support 1.25 million KRW | First resistance 1.31 million KRW
Market signal: Profit-taking after surge, insufficient sustained bullish attack, typical high-open digestion of floating shares.
KR200 Index
Intraday support: 982 | Resistance: 1010
Held above 982 support in early session, but upward momentum to challenge 1010 resistance is insufficient.
KORU (3x leveraged long KR200 U.S. stock ETF)
Opened high in sync with Korean stocks, volatility will amplify index fluctuations;
Key risk: In a surge-and-fall market, leveraged products have greater amplitude, short-term chasing high has poor risk-reward ratio.
III. Market Scenario Interpretation & Practical Strategy
1. Current pattern: High open surge → stepwise pullback
Typical "overnight positive news opening profit-taking"
✅ Healthy standard: Pullback does not break early session low, then volume expands again for renewed attack
❌ Risk signal: High points continuously lower, rebound volume shrinks, overall weak oscillation
2. Two response plans
- Do not chase the high open: Early session pulse surge is not suitable for new long positions, wait for pullback support to observe buying strength;
- Positioning strategy: Use early session surge to reduce positions in batches, beware of overall oscillation shifting downward.
IV. Key Risk Reminders
1. Continuous foreign capital outflow is a hidden pressure; relying solely on domestic capital makes sustained one-sided index rallies difficult;
2. Morning performance of Hynix and KR200 will directly transmit sentiment to tonight's Micron MU and SOXL U.S. semiconductor stocks;
3. KORU is a daily reset triple leverage product; oscillating tug-of-war markets continuously erode net asset value; long-term holding is prohibited, only suitable for short-term speculation. $SOL Note a strong industry signal that was overlooked, let's watch: Nvidia plans to invest up to $3 billion in Lancium to support power infrastructure for AI data centers. The significance of this move is that the bottleneck for AI is shifting from "whether there are enough chips" to "whether there is enough power." When the top upstream computing power leader personally steps in to invest in power, it indicates that energy has become a hard constraint for AI expansion. Mapping this to crypto, it opens the imaginative space for narratives like "selling water" in DePIN involving energy and computing power. Let's watch who can truly connect on-chain resources with AI's power and computing demands — that will be the story worth telling.#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering Watching $BTC $ETH decline but actually strong internally, this continuous creation of divergence and panic gives room for imagination later. If it weren't for the Korean market opening time, I would definitely increase my position decisively. Mainly because there are still several hours before the US stock market opens tonight, I tell myself to open positions conservatively and wait quietly for volatility opportunities around the US market opening tonight! 🚀 $LUNR Space Innovation Meets the Digital Era
Current Price: $16.50
$LUNR (Intuitive Machines) is focused on space exploration and lunar infrastructure, working on technologies designed to support the growing commercial space economy.
🌐 As digital infrastructure continues expanding, the broader Web3 ecosystem is also exploring applications around digital ownership, decentralized communities, and emerging technology networks. The intersection of space, AI, blockchain, and digital infrastructure remains an exciting area to watch.
🔍 Keep an eye on mission progress, contracts, technology development, business performance, and overall market sentiment.
📊 Always conduct your own research (DYOR). Market prices can be volatile, and this post is not financial advice.
🚀 Keep $LUNR on your watchlist, explore the evolving Web3 landscape, and stay connected with @OKX中文 .
#DailyOrbit #OKX.ai #Storage stocks selling pressure eases, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $SKHYNIX
On Monday, SK Hynix opened with a double kill of longs and shorts. I shorted at the 1050 upper rail, targeting a take profit at 950.
On Monday, SK Hynix's opening first dropped then rallied. The contract first dipped near 1000, sweeping out bottom-fishing long positions, then quickly pulled up to 1045–1050, clearing out those who chased shorts at the open.
Completing a double kill of longs and shorts in a short time, this movement looks more like a re-pricing and concentrated leverage clearing at the open, rather than the market having chosen a direction.
✔ Why does a double kill of longs and shorts occur?
SK Hynix contracts trade 24 hours, while the Korean spot stock reopens later, requiring the contract price to quickly align with the spot price.
Previously, SK Hynix had a continuous sharp drop, with many bottom-fishing positions clustered near 1000, and many rebound short positions near 1050. Liquidity concentrated at the open was released, first sweeping long stop losses, then clearing shorts on the way up, resulting in violent price swings.
✔ Why did I choose to short at 1050?
I did not chase shorts near 1000 but waited for the price to rebound to around 1050 before entering.
1050 is simultaneously close to:
✔ The upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel
✔ Monday's opening rebound high
✔ Previous trapped positions and short-term resistance zone
✔ The liquidity high point after the double kill of longs and shorts
Compared to chasing shorts during a sharp drop, shorting at 1050 has a clearer invalidation point and a more reasonable risk-reward ratio.
✔ Upcoming price
1050: short entry point
1010–1000: first support and round number level
1000–985: core area determining if the decline continues
950: extended take profit target after breaking support
1070–1080: if price stabilizes here, short logic fails
My take profit target is 950, but I do not treat 950 as a guaranteed level.
#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering 🚨 The Bank of Japan is about to stir things up again! Is the $BTC $64,000 support line in danger?
Everyone is watching the Federal Reserve.
But the real trigger for the next round of intense market volatility might come from — 🇯🇵 Japan!
On August 10, the Bank of Japan released the minutes of the July meeting, sending a very important signal:
👉 There is a clear split within the Bank of Japan!
🐻 The hawks believe:
🔥 Inflation is close to the 2% target
🔥 Rate hikes must not stop
🔥 The easing policy should continue to be withdrawn
🕊️ The doves warn:
⚠️ The impact of previous rate hikes on the economy has not fully appeared yet
⚠️ Raising rates too quickly now could shock economic growth
On the surface, it’s just internal disagreement.
But what the market really fears is:
🚨 The Bank of Japan suddenly turning hawkish again!
Why?
Because in recent years, Japan has been one of the world’s most important sources of “cheap money.”
The capital logic is very simple:
💴 Borrow low-cost yen
➡️ Buy U.S. stocks
➡️ Buy cryptocurrencies
➡️ Buy high-risk assets
But if the market starts betting:
The Bank of Japan will continue to raise rates...
What might happen next?
💴 Yen appreciation 📈
💥 Yen carry trades unwind
🏃 Leveraged funds retreat
📉 BTC / ETH under pressure
And this is not the first time.
Previous sudden policy shifts by the Bank of Japan triggered severe shocks in global risk assets and large-scale liquidations in the crypto market.
Now looking at the market:
🟠 BTC: around $65,000
🔵 ETH: around $1,914
Prices appear to be sideways.
But in reality—
The market is waiting for the next directional catalyst.
⚠️ The real danger is not necessarily a slow decline.
But:
When everyone thinks “BTC can’t fall anymore,” liquidity suddenly starts to dry up.
That could trigger a real stampede.
👀 Next, focus on 3 signals:
1️⃣ Whether the yen continues to strengthen
2️⃣ Subsequent speeches by Bank of Japan officials
3️⃣ Whether yen carry trades begin large-scale unwinding
If the Bank of Japan presses the “rate hike button” again:
This might no longer be just a story about the Japanese market.
🔥 It could evolve into a global risk asset repricing!
For $BTC, the $64,000–$65,000 range could become a critical lifeline for the next phase.
📈 Hold it → Bulls regain confidence
📉 Break it → Volatility could quickly expand
So, don’t just watch the Federal Reserve.
🇯🇵 This time, keep a close eye on Japan too!
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit The market in the second half of the year will shift from storage to optical interconnect and optical communication modules. Storage is overheated, with a large number of retail investors chasing the rally and too many trapped positions. It will not rise to the previous peak in the short term. This round of storage has trapped retail investors for at least 2-3 years. The next peak is expected to break through again before 2029. For optical communication, pay attention to aaoi and cohr This wave in storage can't be explained simply by saying the bull is gone; it's more like capital is re-verifying the accounts. $XMU latest 874.87 (-1.08%), $XSNDK 1217 (-0.46%), $XSKHY 138.83 (-0.37%), all inching down in small steps—not exactly panic, but buyers are also reluctant to step in.
Volatility in South Korea has returned to a two-month low; the selling pressure caused by forced liquidation of previous leverage and tightened ETF regulations is indeed receding, but that doesn't mean capital will immediately come back. SK Hynix plans to invest 54.3 trillion KRW to expand production in Yongin and Cheongju, while also evaluating a large-scale shareholder return plan—sounds impressive, but since the plan hasn't materialized, the market is just ignoring it for now.
To be clear, the narrative isn't broken; the story of AI memory demand remains, but in earnings season, whoever guides conservatively gets hit first. I'll observe first and wait for price confirmation. Going forward, watch two things: whether the decline narrows and whether there is volume during rebounds. If prices continue to weaken, it means capital is still revising down storage chain valuations; only if it stabilizes can we start talking about the AI memory main theme again. No rush now, let the bullets fly a while.
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ ⚠️ Still, it’s worth paying attention!
The four largest Japanese life insurance companies recorded an unrealized bond loss of a record 𝟵𝟲 billion USD in the second quarter of 2026. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter of increases, as the yield on Japan’s 30-year government bonds first broke above 4% since the bond was introduced in 1999.
This is a signal of structural fragility, with the potential to transmit stress across asset classes. Japanese financial institutions are the largest holders of Japan government bonds. The forced liquidation of life insurers could trigger a chain reaction through the bond market—tightening global liquidity and putting pressure on risk assets, including crypto.The similarity to the 2022 UK gilts/LDI crisis is clear: rising yields lead to forced selling, which further pushes down bond prices. Watch the policy lapse/cancellation trend as the trigger variable.
$BTC acts here as a cross-asset risk proxy—tightening financial conditions in Japan that historically has been unfavorable for Bitcoin. The $96 billion in unrealized losses is the largest record value, and the figure is still growing quarter over quarter.
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn I also took a short position on $BEAT.
Still firmly looking below 1.5.
Starting from about 80 million unlocked on August 1st, there will be large unlock releases of no less than 20 million each month thereafter.
Within a few months, the pressure will be on the bulls. All the price increases in between are basically to prepare for the next pressure release. My position is also leveraged 1x. Completely calm.
$BICO $ETH $ETH865 million USD just poured into Bitcoin ETF, but the market remains unmoved? Institutions are openly buying, what are retail investors waiting for?
1. Capital flow clearly warming up: Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 865 million USD (the highest in nearly 15 weeks), with BlackRock alone buying 694 million; Ethereum ETFs have also had net inflows for 5 consecutive weeks, totaling 244 million. The signal of institutions returning to mainstream assets is very clear.
2. Institutions are buying, but not pushing the price up: This money is long-term allocation capital, not short-term hot money. Institutions prefer to accumulate in batches around 65,000 USD rather than rushing to 70,000 USD in one go. Buying pressure is continuous but lacks explosive power.
3. BTC and ETH have different roles:
· BTC: The most certain, the first stop for institutional allocation, but volatility is contracting and short-term explosive power is limited.
· ETH: More flexible, with Vitalik announcing future upgrade roadmaps, combined with AI downstream asset narratives, if market risk appetite recovers, the upside could be stronger (outperforming DRAM by 55% in the past month).
4. Whether the market can start depends on three things: ① macro interest rate expectations (oil prices and geopolitics affecting rate cuts); ② market risk appetite; ③ whether spot trading volume can keep up. Only if these three resonate will the real start happen.
5. Operational advice: patiently wait for the capital flow and macro factors to resonate; the market will not take off overnight.
$BTC $ETH #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ Someone asked me to talk about how I view quantitative trading. I remember I said this on Zhihu a long time ago: many so-called indicators are actually just illusions created by many people who want to avoid thinking by playing with trivial toys. Why is it that whether it's A-shares, US stocks, gold, or the crypto circle, the big players have grown from small to large through unconventional means, but no retail investors have become big through quantitative trading? The same applies to AI—why would your large model computer or even coding program outperform the national teams or Wall Street? Why would you be able to beat larger, more professional players with these? Quantitative trading is "stability" for large volumes and big funds, with an annual interest rate of so much. For example, how much can banks or government bonds give ordinary people? 10-20% is already high. Genius retail investors catch opportunities, roll positions, or use expiration options and event contracts, daring to bet all in, or use compounding long-term. But compounding long-term inevitably leads to qualitative changes caused by quantitative changes. There must be carefully chosen opportunities to go all in, without exception. Some succeed, some blow up; the successes become widely known, the failures fade into obscurity. Take the domestic A-share quantitative magic square as an example—it is indeed impressive and stable, so the money earned is used to build large models like DeepSeek for the national team. Their data centers are next to the exchange, and their data speed is 0.1 seconds or even less faster than retail investors. When a black swan event comes, they just need to be faster than retail investors. So I have never understood why many people blindly believe in quantitative trading and indicators. Retail investors who want to succeed can only refine their own brains and train themselves into large model quant traders. The national teams and Wall Street quant teams with large funds and volumes actively seek you out, but you don't have that. You only have a few hundred or a few thousand dollars—why would you rely on quantitative trading to make it? Are you a computer genius? Or do you have relatives in Wall Street or the national team? Here's a counterintuitive point: what humans can do is to go all in at critical moments, which quantitative trading cannot do. So this is the key. Wang Jianlin once said that Tsinghua and Peking University are not as good as having guts. The era of reform, opening up, going into business, and starting real estate was all about guts. You never know if the next second you will be labeled as gray or black and be suppressed. Web3, which is becoming more and more regulated, is actually similar—gold mining in the West, the more regulated, the fewer opportunities; of course, the less regulated, the higher the mortality rate. $BTC #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ SPCX at $136, would you dare to get on board?
First, look at the surface: explosive earnings report, but even more explosive cash burn
Revenue 7.81 billion (+92%), AI revenue 2.56 billion (+247%), newly signed cloud contracts totaling 14.1 billion — but Capex as high as 18.4 billion, AI infrastructure accounts for 15.8 billion, market initially sold off then pulled back, after-hours pressure at one point. Violent rebound from 107 double bottom to 136, surpassing all key moving averages, MACD turned positive, trend has reversed, but short-term is overheated
First thing: earnings report "so good it’s explosive" but "so expensive it hurts," market chooses to forgive
Revenue 7.81 billion, Wall Street expected just over 7 billion; EBITDA 3.54 billion, up 191% year-over-year; net loss sharply narrowed to 541 million
The AI segment is the most outrageous — revenue soared from 700 million to 2.56 billion, up 247% year-over-year. Starlink users doubled to 12 million, enterprise + government orders pouring in
So why did it drop after hours?
Capex 18.4 billion, of which 15.8 billion is spent on AI infrastructure. The market says: you’re burning cash too aggressively
Second thing: lockup expiration didn’t cause a drop but a rise — the strongest bullish signal
Lockup expiration around August 6-7, market originally expected a flood of selling pressure
What happened? Not only no drop, but a strong rebound from around 120 to 136
Insiders didn’t sell, institutions didn’t sell, retail investors were waiting for a crash to bottom-fish — ended up waiting in vain. Short sellers covered + bulls returned, pushing the price back above IPO level
Third thing: SpaceX is no longer the "rocket company" you know
Starlink: 12 million users, high-margin subscription revenue, enterprise and government contracts pouring in. It’s now the world’s largest satellite internet operator
AI computing power: 2.56 billion quarterly revenue, 14.1 billion in-hand contracts, deep cooperation with NVIDIA on orbital computing power. It’s now a key player in AI infrastructure
Starship: V3 successfully tested twice, capacity increased, costs decreased, paving the way for a future trillion-dollar market
The trinity: aerospace + satellite internet + AI computing power
Strategy
Short-term traders:
Don’t chase at 136. Wait for a pullback to 130-133 to lightly buy, stop loss below 124, target 140-145. If volume supports a steady hold above 140, chase with stop loss at 135, target 155-160
Swing traders:
Wait for a pullback to 124-126 (MA200 area) to buy heavily, that’s the real big opportunity. Stop loss 118, target 155-180
Long-term believers:
Build positions gradually in the 120-130 range. SpaceX is the prototype of the "space version of Amazon" — Starlink is AWS, Starship is FBA logistics, AI computing power is the next growth curve BTC Market Analysis Report
BTC at $65,000, the longer it consolidates, the more anxious you get?
First, look at the surface: sideways consolidation, unclear direction
BTC has been oscillating between 62k-66k for a full three weeks, repeatedly testing the 65000 level. Weekly gain of 0.8%, monthly decline of 0.3%, as if nailed to the wall. The candlesticks tell you: volume continues to shrink, the market is waiting for a direction.
First thing: institutions are buying, whales are accumulating, are you waiting for a crash?
Spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $750 million to $850 million this week — the strongest week since April. BlackRock's IBIT has had continuous positive inflows for several days; institutions are aggressively accumulating while the price consolidates.
At the same time, addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC have been steadily increasing net holdings since late July, resonating with ETF inflows.
Every time the price consolidates but institutions keep buying, it’s a precursor to a sharp rally.
Second thing: an unexpected macro positive surprise
Nonfarm payrolls in July unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, while expectations were for an increase of 80,000. The previous value was also revised downward.
The labor market is clearly slowing down.
The Fed’s confidence in "higher for longer" is gone.
Short-term rate hike expectations have weakened.
The shackles on risk assets have loosened a bit.
The Fed just held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% at the end of July, but with the new employment data, market expectations for September have started to ease.
The worst of the macro environment may be behind us.
Third thing: technically, it’s time to choose a direction
On the 4-hour chart, BTC is near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, with overall low volume. The daily RSI is around 50-55, neutral; MACD shows a weak golden cross or flattening, lacking momentum.
But note — an inverse head and shoulders pattern has appeared on the chart. If it breaks above the 66000 neckline with volume, the target points near 75000.
Bulls and bears have been deadlocked here for three weeks. Upward, breaking 66000 opens the path higher; downward, breaking 64000 will test 62200.
Key levels:
Upside targets: 66000-67000 (neckline + key resistance) → 70000 → 75000+
Downside support: 64000-64200 → 62200-62500 → 57000-58000
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Lightly buy on a pullback to 64200-64500 with a stop loss at 63500, target 65500-66000. Add to longs on a breakout above 66000 with volume, target 70000-75000.
Swing traders:
Wait for daily close above 66000 before entering on the right side, target 70000-75000. If it breaks below 64000 with acceleration, wait and consider entry near 62200.
Long-term believers:
Dollar-cost average below 64000. With continuous ETF inflows + whale accumulation + post-halving cycle, the target by end of 2026 is 80000🔪-100000🔪 The real drama starts on Wednesday!
After last week's nonfarm payrolls came in significantly below expectations, the market has already lowered its expectations for further Fed rate hikes.
But weak employment only indicates that the economy is starting to cool down.
Another key issue the Fed cares about is whether inflation is continuing to approach 2%, and this week will provide the answer.
So I believe Wednesday's CPI is the most important data this week.
If inflation continues to cool, then the logic of weakening employment and falling inflation becomes more complete, naturally reducing the pressure for the Fed to continue raising rates, and the market might even start discussing the potential for future rate cuts.
Conversely, if the CPI rises again, the optimistic expectations brought by last week's nonfarm payrolls will need to be revised.
This week also includes PPI, initial jobless claims, and a bunch of AI industry chain earnings reports, but in the face of the overall risk market, CPI must take precedence for now.
If last week's nonfarm payrolls were responsible for disrupting expectations,
then this week's CPI will tell the market whether it was a false alarm or if the macroeconomic trend is truly shifting. South Korea is set to delay the taxation of virtual assets again. Assemblyman Chung Sung-guk plans to submit a bill to directly postpone the tax on cryptocurrency income, originally scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027, to 2030. This event will have medium- to long-term emotional impacts on the Asian crypto market. According to current South Korean regulations, income generated from virtual asset transfers and loans is classified as other income and subject to income tax. The rule is that for annual profits exceeding 2.5 million KRW, the comprehensive tax rate is 22%, including 20% other income tax plus 2% local tax. Originally, it was supposed to be officially implemented in 2027, but now the proposal hopes to delay it for another three years. South Korea's crypto retail investor community is huge, and there has always been strong opposition from the public. The tax policy has been postponed several times, previously pushing it from the earliest to 2027, and now they want to push it further to 2030. There are many practical difficulties behind the scenes: the difficulty of accounting for virtual asset income, the difficulty of comprehensive cross-border asset statistics, and the regulatory supporting systems are not yet in place. Introducing taxes too early and worrying about a massive outflow of local users to overseas platforms could impact the domestic crypto industry. From a market sentiment perspective, the deferred tax is a somewhat positive signal. In the short term, this will ease panic among local Korean investors and reduce selling pressure from policy implementation. But it's important to clarify: this is just a proposal, not yet officially enacted. After lawmakers submit the bill, it must go through multiple rounds of parliamentary review, and there are still uncertainties, so it may not ultimately become law. Looking across Asia, South Korea is a bellwether for crypto regulation. South Korea's policy swings will also indirectly affect neighboring citiesSpot ETF capital inflow, can BTC and ETH take over?
- Key data: In the week of August, BTC spot ETF net inflow was $865.3 million (the first full-week inflow in 15 weeks), ETH spot ETF had a continuous 5-week net inflow of $243.7 million, with BlackRock products as the main source of inflow.
- Short-term impact: Institutional funds support the spot market, short covering amplifies upward momentum, after ETF outflows stopped in July, BTC rebounded over 8% in 4 days.
- Mid-term logic: If net inflows continue for 3 consecutive weeks, institutional allocation shifts from pulse to trend entry, BTC pricing power transfers to ETFs; ETH selling pressure is fully absorbed, making it likely to benefit from sentiment recovery.
- Conditions for takeover: BTC needs to hold above $65,000, with support at $64,500; ETH needs to hold $1,900, with resistance at $1,925-$1,950. The Bank of Japan is stirring things up again! Is the $65,000 BTC support line in danger? 🚨
The global market is watching the Federal Reserve, but the real trigger for the next wave of volatility might come from Japan.
On August 10, the minutes of the Bank of Japan's July meeting were revealed:
There was internal division.
The hawks believe:
🔥 Inflation is already close to the 2% target
🔥 Rate hikes cannot stop; easing must continue to be withdrawn
The doves warn:
⚠️ The impact of previous rate hikes on the economy has not fully appeared; we must not be too aggressive.
On the surface, it looks like a difference of opinion,
but what the market fears most is the Bank of Japan suddenly turning hawkish again.
Why?
Because in recent years, the largest source of "cheap money" globally has come from Japan.
Borrow yen → buy US stocks → buy crypto → buy high-risk assets.
Once the market starts betting on continued rate hikes in Japan:
Yen rises 📈
Carry trades unwind 💥
Leveraged funds retreat 🏃
BTC and ETH come under pressure 📉
Last year, a single shift by the Bank of Japan caused a severe shock to global markets, with the crypto market experiencing a wave of liquidations.
Now:
BTC: $64,999
ETH: $1,914
Prices seem to be sideways, but the market is actually waiting for a direction.
The real danger is not a drop,
but when everyone thinks "it can't go down anymore," liquidity suddenly dries up.
Key things to watch next:
👀 Yen movement
👀 Bank of Japan officials' speeches
👀 Whether carry trade funds start to withdraw
If Japan presses the rate hike button again,
this time, it might not just be a story about the Japanese market.
It could be a global repricing of risk assets.
Whether BTC can hold $64,000 might be the watershed for the next market cycle. ⚡️#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ $BTC $ETH #Storage stocks selling pressure eases, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $SKHYNIX
On Monday, SK Hynix opened with a double kill of longs and shorts. I shorted at the 1050 upper rail, targeting a take profit at 950.
On Monday, SK Hynix's opening first dropped then rallied. The contract first dipped near 1000, sweeping out bottom-fishing long positions, then quickly pulled up to 1045–1050, clearing out those who chased shorts at the open.
Completing a double kill of longs and shorts in a short time, this movement looks more like a re-pricing and concentrated leverage clearing at the open, rather than the market having chosen a direction.
✔ Why does a double kill of longs and shorts occur?
SK Hynix contracts trade 24 hours, while the Korean spot stock reopens later, requiring the contract price to quickly align with the spot price.
Previously, SK Hynix had a continuous sharp drop, with many bottom-fishing positions clustered near 1000, and many rebound short positions near 1050. Liquidity concentrated at the open was released, first sweeping long stop losses, then clearing shorts on the way up, resulting in violent price swings.
✔ Why did I choose to short at 1050?
I did not chase shorts near 1000 but waited for the price to rebound to around 1050 before entering.
1050 is simultaneously close to:
✔ The upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel
✔ Monday's opening rebound high
✔ Previous trapped positions and short-term resistance zone
✔ The liquidity high point after the double kill of longs and shorts
Compared to chasing shorts during a sharp drop, shorting at 1050 has a clearer invalidation point and a more reasonable risk-reward ratio.
✔ Upcoming price path
1050: short entry point
1010–1000: first support and round number level
1000–985: core area determining if the decline continues
950: extended take profit target after breaking support
1070–1080: if price stabilizes here, the short logic fails
My take profit target is 950, but I do not treat 950 as a guaranteed level.
After price reaches 1000–985, a rebound is likely first. Only if this area is effectively broken and the rebound fails to retake it will the downside space to 950 truly open.
✔ Trading iron rule
Never bet on the first candlestick at the open.
The first candlestick at the open bears the task of re-pricing and clearing liquidity and can completely reverse within minutes. Without structural confirmation, the first candlestick at the open has nearly zero win rate for me.
#Storage stocks selling pressure eases, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $SKHYNIX
Let the market kill both longs and shorts first, then wait for the price to return to a clear support or resistance level.
This trade is not about chasing shorts just because SK Hynix fell a lot, but about waiting for a rebound to touch the channel upper rail before shorting under a larger bearish bias.
The direction can be wrong, but entry position, stop loss, and risk-reward ratio must be clear. 🚨The narrative of $SPCX is being redefined.
$1 trillion is not "cumulative revenue," not ARR—it's the single-year revenue for 2030.
Apple makes about ~$400B annually. This is 2.5 times that.
Elon’s exact words: "We might fail, we might be delusional"—but this is a real internal forecast.
This isn’t KOL hype; it’s the CEO leaving a number in a public record.
Supporting sources:
Starlink is printing money
Space AI
Terafab’s self-developed chips
Government contracts
Five business lines, one machine, compound growth through 2030.
📌 Half the people are discussing unlocking and burning money, the other half are looking at the "trillion-dollar annual revenue" the CEO just wrote into the public record.
This isn’t a stock. This is a generational bet most people dare not take. I keep feeling like all the signals are there now, but why isn't it giving yet?
Bitcoin $BTC here — IV is compressed to historically low levels, the candlestick convergence points upward at the end, neither the sell pressure from Saylor nor Trump has broken it down, and ETFs continue to see net inflows. It looks like it's about to rise, but who's going to make that buy order? Non-farm payrolls gave a breather, but CPI hasn't landed, so institutions don't dare to add positions.
Ethereum $ETH over there — not weak at all. Although the exchange rate is still hovering around 0.029, when BTC bounces slightly, ETH follows more closely than anyone else, not at all like it's about to collapse.
The external market is lively too — the S&P hit two new highs in a week, the three storage giants and $SPCX each have their own stories, and gold surged over 7% in a single week to start first.
Either the technical signals are right and just waiting for a narrative spark; or the fundamentals are the real constraint, and the breakout is just an illusion. 865 million USD, with BlackRock alone contributing 694 million.
This is the highest weekly net inflow for a US spot Bitcoin ETF in nearly 15 weeks.
The money is back, but the market hasn't moved yet.
Institutions are buying, retail investors are waiting. Whether BTC and ETH can catch this wave of funds depends on the macroeconomic and risk appetite trends in the coming weeks.
BlackRock's IBIT bought 694 million worth of BTC this week. The entire ETF market saw a net inflow of 865 million, a new high in nearly 15 weeks.
Ethereum ETFs have also seen net inflows for five consecutive weeks, totaling about 244 million.
Institutional funds are indeed flowing back into mainstream assets, and the signal is clear.
But whether BTC and ETH can catch this wave of funds and start a rally depends on three things: macro interest rate expectations, market risk appetite, and whether spot trading volume can keep up.
ETF fund inflows indicate institutions are buying. But institutions are buying for long-term allocation, not short-term price pumping. At the 65,000 level, institutions won’t all-in push the price to 70,000; instead, they enter in batches within a certain range.
Buying pressure is ongoing but not necessarily concentrated in a burst.
BTC’s positioning is clearer; it is the largest liquidity carrier in the crypto market, and the first stop for institutions allocating crypto assets is BTC. The ETF inflow data also shows this: out of 865 million, 694 million comes from BTC, accounting for over 80%.
BTC’s advantage is strong certainty; its downside is that volatility is converging, so its short-term explosive power is less than ETH’s.
ETH has greater elasticity. Vitalik just finalized the underlying upgrade roadmap for the next three to four years, restarting the technical narrative. ETH’s positioning as a key asset downstream of AI is being accepted by the market. Tom Lee’s data shows ETH outperformed DRAM by 55% in the past month.
#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering Неделя начинается с интересных медвежьих сигналов по крипторынку от нашего P73 CryptoMarket Monitor. Это, напомним, алгоритм, который анализирует ТОП-200 криптоактивов по нашему ключевому индикатору трендов, целей и экстремумов. Кроме того, что локально в этом часе на 2-часовом ТФ 19 активов перешли в устойчивый даунтренд - есть сигналы с более важных ТФ: - 11 активов, включая #BTC и #ETH, показали метки потенциального хая на дневном ТФ, - 5 активов, включая #ETH, показали метку потенциального хBitcoin has been fluctuating for a week between $64,500 and $65,500, with the latest price near $64,900. Trading volume shrank significantly on Sunday, with volume down 44% compared to usual, showing typical weekend liquidity exhaustion. The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, is at 30, still in the "extreme fear" range, indicating strong risk aversion among retail investors. However, institutional capital flows sharply contrast with retail investors. ETF data disclosed yesterday showed that Bitcoin spot ETFs had a single-day net inflow of $220 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs attracted $29 million in net inflows. This means that while individual investors are generally panicking, institutional funds are continuously ramping up their positions. Analysts point out that the current combination of price consolidation and a sharp drop in trading volume, combined with ETF funds flowing against the trend, is experiencing a typical phase of "retail investors exiting and institutions accumulating." As for whether this is a period of accumulation for shaking out and accumulation, or a false calm before the storm, we still need to observe the subsequent price breakout direction and the sustainability of ETF capital flows. #CryptoThe ETF, this capital faucet, has indeed been reopened.
Let's first look at the core data: from August 3rd to 7th, the US BTC spot ETF saw net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling $853.5 million, nearly five times the total amount for the entire month of July in just one week; the ETH spot ETF simultaneously saw inflows of $244.9 million, with the two combined approaching $1.1 billion. Compared to the nearly $7 billion continuous outflow of ETFs in May and June, and the slight stopgap in July, this round can be considered a true capital inflow.
The market also reflects this: BTC is currently priced at $65,171, rebounding 3.6% over five days; ETH has stabilized above $1,900 and is pushing toward the $2,000 mark; SOL is at $77.12, up 3% in 24 hours. Interestingly, the Fear and Greed Index is only 25, still in the fear zone — prices are rebounding, but retail sentiment hasn't caught up. This mistrusted rebound precisely provides potential fuel for shorts and those missing out.
But one point must be emphasized: do not directly call this a bull market return. This round of inflows is highly concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT, with a single product absorbing 81% of the funds, essentially institutional allocation-based dollar-cost averaging rather than a market-wide FOMO. The heavy weekly resistance wall for BTC lies between $67,500 and $70,000; if it can't break through, it remains a large box-range consolidation. The watershed for ETH is $2,000; if it can hold above with volume, altcoins have rotation space, but repeated failed attempts to break through should raise caution for a bull trap.
The current core contradiction is clear: macro interest rate pressure has not yet been eliminated, but institutions have already begun phased left-side positioning. Capital has returned, but the inflow intensity has not yet reached a full outbreak level.
This week, watch two key validations: first, whether the ETF daily net inflow can stably maintain above $100 million; second, whether BTC can effectively challenge $67,500. Capital is always honest; do not let short-term rising sentiment drive your decisions.
#SpotETFCapitalInflow, Can BTC and ETH Take Over?
#S&PClosesAtNewHighAgain, 8000PointExpectationHeatsUp SPCX's recent maneuver is indeed fierce: first revealing the 8/6 unlock schedule of 911.5 million shares (about a trillion USD pre-market valuation), then dropping the solid news of the Terafab chip city in Texas—initial investment of 16.8 billion, long-term plan of 119 billion USD, covering over 100 million square feet (about 10 times Giga Texas), conveniently revaluing SpaceX from a "rocket stock" to an "orbital AI infrastructure stock."
SPCX Event-Driven Timeline
📅 8/4 After Market | First Earnings Report
Revenue 7.8 billion (+92%) beat expectations, but operating loss 542 million, AI capex 18 billion+ exceeded expectations
→ 8/5 Stock price -13.61% closed at 108.27, early release of unlock panic
📅 8/6 Thursday | First Batch Unlock + Terafab Announcement
· Unlock 911.5 million shares (≈1 trillion USD, float from 639 million to 1.55 billion)
· On the same day, Musk announced: Terafab chip city to be built in Grimes County, Texas
Initial 16.8 billion, long-term plan 119 billion, covering over 10 times Giga Texas
25% computing power feeding Optimus, 75% feeding space data centers
→ Expectation reversal, closed +6.14% at 114.92
📅 8/7 Friday | Short Squeeze Rally
Argus raised Buy target to 160; short covering + options volume surge
→ Closed at 133.11, single day +15.83%, two-day cumulative rise ≈23%
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
【Key Price Levels (close to IPO price)】
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
IPO Issue Price: 135
52-week Low: 104.83 (8/3 bottom)
Main Accumulation Zone: 100–130
Current Price (8/7 close): 133.11
Pullback Response:
· Around 130 / 100–130 range → Buy in batches
· <100 (emotionally oversold level) → Planned reserve level, low probability, no gamble but noted in advance
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
【Upcoming Trigger Events】
· 8/20 Second batch unlock 319 million shares
· September unlock ≈700 million / October ≈700 million (nine-stage release)
· Musk’s 6.4 billion shares locked until 2027/6
· Index rebalancing (effective third Friday of September, expected passive fund buying)
#SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 $SPCX's recent intense volatility essentially stems from two major events colliding: the "first earnings report + the largest unlock in history," with bulls and bears each holding their own views. I've clarified the most core positives and negatives recently. When the volatility was high just now, the shorts also quietly exited!
💡 The current volatility of SPCX is not driven by a single piece of news but is an extreme tug-of-war between "strong fundamentals" and "high valuation + heavy cash burn + unlock pressure."
⚠️ The most critical observation points ahead:
August 20: The second batch of 319 million shares unlocked, a touchstone to test whether the "unlock panic has truly been digested."
August 28 (NET): Starship's 14th flight, the first orbital flight + V3 satellite deployment; success or failure will revalue the space business.
Q3 Earnings Report (expected early November): The largest batch of 1.3 billion shares unlocked + capital expenditure data, determining the mid-to-long-term direction.
$100 whole number level: The AI business valuation bottom line named by Morgan Stanley; breaking below may trigger a new round of stop losses.
#SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧
$BTC $ETH 🔥$XRP stubbornly holds at $1, are whales accumulating or are retail investors holding strong?
XRP has returned to that familiar level—around $1.
I say "returned" because this number has been repeatedly mentioned over the past few weeks. On August 6, XRP dropped to $1.03, on August 7 it once approached $1.01, and on Friday it hit a low of $1.02. Each time it seemed like it would break, but each time it was forcibly pulled back. As of August 9, XRP is quoted at about $1.04.
When a token repeatedly tests the same support level but never breaks it, there are only two possibilities: either there is real big money defending the price here, or the market has become numb and no one is willing to sell at this level anymore.
From the data, it looks more like the former.
BlockWeeks reported on August 9 that whale addresses bought a massive 380 million XRP. Meanwhile, Binance data shows that 76.7% of top traders’ positions are long, with a long-to-short ratio of 3.29. The smart money is quite unified in their directional bet at this level.
But on the other side, retail investors are exiting. The total assets of the US spot XRP ETF dropped from $993 million to $964 million, and Grayscale’s XRP Trust saw an outflow of 103 million XRP in the first half of 2026. Institutions are retreating while whales are entering; these two forces are clashing around the $1 mark.
Why $1?
Because breaking below this number means a complete breach of the psychological barrier. Analyst EGRAG Crypto warns that if XRP falls below $1, the next support could be in the $0.70–$0.80 range. From the January high of $2.41, XRP has already lost over 43%. If it breaks $1 again, those new players who entered during the 2025 bull market will see their holdings fall below this psychological threshold for the first time.
Resistance is equally clear. The $1.05–$1.08 range has been repeatedly defended by bears. XRP is currently below all key moving averages, and any rebound will face layers of selling pressure.
Polymarket’s betting market shows a 68% probability that XRP will fall to or below $1 in August. Market expectations lean bearish.
Interestingly, the same betting market shows only a 13% chance that XRP will reach $1.20 or higher. This means the market believes XRP will either break below $1 or linger lifelessly around $1, with the possibility of a significant rebound being the lowest.
This is XRP’s current predicament—there is support but no momentum. Whale accumulation gives confidence in the bottom, but the lack of catalysts prevents a price breakout. The CLARITY Act has been delayed until September, ETF inflows are weak, and on-chain payment volume has plummeted nearly 90% from the August 7 peak of 600 million XRP—all short-term narratives that could drive XRP higher have gone silent.
How long can the $1 level hold? How much selling pressure can whales absorb? Or will the market ultimately bow to the 68% probability?
Share your thoughts in the comments below.👇The private keys were not stolen; the credentials were stolen.
Last week's lesson was about how seeds are generated; this week it's a different layer: the wallet itself is fine, but the things next to the wallet got compromised.
According to CoinDesk, on the evening of August 7, a batch of Lightning Network nodes running behind BTCPay Server were drained. BTCPay has requested everyone running LND to immediately upgrade to version 2.4.2 or take their servers offline. The attacker never touched the private keys; what was obtained were .macaroon credentials—a "passport that speaks on your behalf." Among the victims was the hardware wallet manufacturer Foundation.
The scale is still unknown: the project team has not disclosed how many users were affected or how many coins were taken. Do not cite any total amounts.
The vulnerability was not discovered first by the attacker; it was previously reported to BTCPay by the Bitcoin Red Team. In a collaborative audit by the same group, 16 developers used AI to scan the Bitcoin codebase, submitting 4,962 findings, 85 of which were severe. The exact words were "the situation is extremely bad."
BTCPay's timeline demonstrates the consequences: the vulnerability was responsibly disclosed, but by the time the public warning was issued, the attacker was already attacking the online servers.
The message this week is not "a certain brand is insecure," but that the attack surface is much broader than "where the private keys are stored."
The author is working on a threshold ECDSA MPC wallet and has a stance. Please make your own judgment.$XAU
This round of gold price increase is driven by multiple factors resonating together; geopolitics is just the trigger, while the Fed's expected shift and central banks' continuous gold purchases are the core support.
A single-day 4% rise reflects overheated short-term sentiment, not purely a safe-haven rally. Macro positive factors triggered technical trading linkage, and the buying from CTA short covering has limited sustainability.
Today, we look for a breakthrough at 4400🚀865 million USD, with BlackRock alone contributing 694 million.
This is the highest weekly net inflow for a US spot Bitcoin ETF in nearly 15 weeks.
The money is back, but the market hasn't moved yet.
Institutions are buying, retail investors are waiting. Whether BTC and ETH can catch this wave of funds depends on the macroeconomic and risk appetite trends in the coming weeks.
BlackRock's IBIT bought 694 million worth of BTC this week. The entire ETF market saw a net inflow of 865 million, a new high in nearly 15 weeks.
Ethereum ETFs have also seen net inflows for five consecutive weeks, totaling about 244 million.
Institutional funds are indeed flowing back into mainstream assets, and the signal is clear.
But whether BTC and ETH can catch this wave of funds and start a rally depends on three things: macro interest rate expectations, market risk appetite, and whether spot trading volume can keep up.
ETF fund inflows indicate institutions are buying. But institutions are buying for long-term allocation, not short-term price pumping. At the 65,000 level, institutions won’t all-in push the price to 70,000; instead, they enter in batches within a certain range.
Buying pressure is ongoing but not necessarily concentrated in a burst.
BTC’s positioning is clearer; it is the largest liquidity carrier in the crypto market, and the first stop for institutions allocating crypto assets is BTC. The ETF inflow data also shows this: out of 865 million, 694 million comes from BTC, accounting for over 80%.
BTC’s advantage is strong certainty; its downside is that volatility is converging, so its short-term explosive power is less than ETH’s.
ETH has greater elasticity. Vitalik just finalized the underlying upgrade roadmap for the next three to four years, restarting the technical narrative. ETH’s positioning as a key asset downstream of AI is being accepted by the market. Tom Lee’s data shows ETH outperformed DRAM by 55% in the past month.
#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering 🚨Japan will announce its latest total debt on Monday — but the real problem goes beyond that.
📊Data:
Previous value (March 31): ¥1,343.8 trillion (about $8.5T)
2-year government bond yield: 1.51% (highest since 1995)
10-year government bond yield: close to 2.9%
Policy rate: 1% (highest in 31 years)
💀Core risk:
The era of the “cheap yen” is ending. For decades, global investors have borrowed yen to buy US Treasuries, stocks, real estate, and even cryptocurrencies. Now borrowing yen is more expensive, and domestic Japanese bonds are starting to yield returns — capital may begin to flow back to Japan.
If yen carry trades are unwound on a large scale:
→ Foreign assets will be sold off
→ Liquidity will leave risk markets
→ Volatility will spread
Japan has already intervened in the currency market (¥6.28 trillion in a single day, another intervention about $95.5 billion), but intervention only buys time, it does not solve the problem.
Japan is caught in a dilemma:
Raising rates → defends the yen but increases debt costs
Buying bonds → prevents yields from rising but further weakens the yen
📌 Monday’s figures are not a market “crash trigger,” but they will reveal how much Japan’s debt has expanded alongside soaring interest rates. This is one of the most important macro liquidity shifts to watch in 2026.
🔔 Stay tuned, I will provide early analysis.An increasingly hard-to-ignore funding fact: gold hit new highs again this week, silver's weekly gains reached the best phase performance, and institutions from UBS to domestic brokers are revising targets upward; at the same time, $BTC is failing both "safe haven" and "risk appetite" tests—it doesn't follow the new highs in US stocks, nor the new highs in gold prices. This indicates that marginal safe-haven funds are now prioritizing gold rather than crypto. The narrative of it being "digital gold" has not been realized in price this round. Data doesn't recognize narratives, only where the funds flow.#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering Breaking news! Positive or not?
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the Nonfarm Payrolls will be released, and the US stock market is about to face a critical choice.
At 20:30 this Friday night, the July Nonfarm Employment Report will be released. This is the most important employment data after the Federal Reserve's July rate meeting and will directly rewrite the September interest rate expectations. All assets including US stocks, US bonds, and crypto will be affected.
Previously, the ADP small nonfarm data was significantly below expectations, which has already served as a warning to the market. The market is betting on a gradual cooling of employment.
Three data scenarios and their corresponding US stock market trends:
Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly stronger than expected, wages rise simultaneously
Employment is hot, delaying rate cut expectations, US bond yields rise. High-valuation AI tech and storage sectors bear the heaviest pressure; growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow Jones value blue chips are relatively resilient, leading to a differentiated market.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm significantly weaker, unemployment rate rises
The market will strengthen rate cut expectations, US bond yields fall, benefiting tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware may see a recovery rebound. But beware of a risk: data too poor may trigger market concerns about economic recession, causing a short-term broad sell-off.
Scenario 3: Data basically matches expectations
Employment cools moderately, neither hot nor cold. US stocks continue the current split pattern, Dow Jones is relatively strong, Nasdaq fluctuates at high levels, and the market returns to earnings report logic with continued sector rotation.
Putting aside Nonfarm, the upcoming US market outlook:
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility after earnings disproof. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the earnings-driven expectation downgrade issue has not completely disappeared. The key focus is whether MU's critical support can hold; if it holds, it represents sectoral differentiated recovery; if it breaks down effectively, this round of storage market will enter mid-term valuation digestion. Do not mistake the oversold rebound for a new main upward wave.
2. Market structural differentiation will continue. Stocks with earnings guidance exceeding expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally is over, making stock picking more difficult.
3. Risks still cannot be ignored. The huge unlocking pressure of $SPCX remains and will occasionally disturb the market, amplifying intraday spike volatility.
Key stocks to watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with fading momentum and capital outflows:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Current market logic summary:
$BTC — The liquidity hub of the crypto market, determining the overall market heat level
$ETH — Institutional funds continue to accumulate, slowly consolidating chips through fluctuations
$SOL — The resilient player in the Layer1 track, with considerable upside when the market starts
$TAO & $WLD — AI mainline heat continues, repeatedly favored by capital
$HYPE — Market speculation sentiment gauge, used to judge current risk appetite
$DOGE & $ZEC — Retail sentiment window, directly reflecting short-term speculative heat Breaking news! Positive or not?
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the Nonfarm Payrolls will be released, and the US stock market is about to face a critical choice.
At 20:30 this Friday night, the July Nonfarm Employment Report will be released. This is the most important employment data after the Federal Reserve's July rate meeting and will directly rewrite the September interest rate expectations. All assets including US stocks, US bonds, and crypto will be affected.
Previously, the ADP small nonfarm data was significantly below expectations, which has already served as a warning to the market. The market is betting on a gradual cooling of employment.
Three data scenarios and their corresponding US stock market trends:
Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly stronger than expected, wages rise simultaneously
Employment is hot, delaying rate cut expectations, US bond yields rise. High-valuation AI tech and storage sectors bear the heaviest pressure; growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow Jones value blue chips are relatively resilient, leading to a differentiated market.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm significantly weaker, unemployment rate rises
The market will strengthen rate cut expectations, US bond yields fall, benefiting tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware may see a recovery rebound. But beware of a risk: data too poor may trigger market concerns about economic recession, causing a short-term broad sell-off.
Scenario 3: Data basically matches expectations
Employment cools moderately, neither hot nor cold. US stocks continue the current split pattern, Dow Jones is relatively strong, Nasdaq fluctuates at high levels, and the market returns to earnings report logic with continued sector rotation.
Putting aside Nonfarm, the upcoming US market outlook:
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility after earnings disproof. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the earnings-driven expectation downgrade issue has not completely disappeared. The key focus is whether MU's critical support can hold; if it holds, it represents sectoral differentiated recovery; if it breaks down effectively, this round of storage market will enter mid-term valuation digestion. Do not mistake the oversold rebound for a new main upward wave.
2. Market structural differentiation will continue. Stocks with earnings guidance exceeding expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally is over, making stock picking more difficult.
3. Risks still cannot be ignored. The huge unlocking pressure of $SPCX remains and will occasionally disturb the market, amplifying intraday spike volatility.
Key stocks to watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with fading momentum and capital outflows:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Current market logic summary:
$BTC — The liquidity hub of the crypto market, determining the overall market heat level
$ETH — Institutional funds continue to accumulate, slowly consolidating chips through fluctuations
$SOL — The resilient player in the Layer1 track, with considerable upside when the market starts
$TAO & $WLD — AI mainline heat continues, repeatedly favored by capital
$HYPE — Market speculation sentiment gauge, used to judge current risk appetite
$DOGE & $ZEC — Retail sentiment window, directly reflecting short-term speculative heat Breaking news! Positive or not?
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the Nonfarm Payrolls will be released, and the US stock market is about to face a critical choice.
At 20:30 this Friday night, the July Nonfarm Employment Report will be released. This is the most important employment data after the Federal Reserve's July rate meeting and will directly rewrite the September interest rate expectations. All assets including US stocks, US bonds, and crypto will be affected.
Previously, the ADP small nonfarm data was significantly below expectations, which has already served as a warning to the market. The market is betting on a gradual cooling of employment.
Three data scenarios and their corresponding US stock market trends:
Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly stronger than expected, wages rise simultaneously
Employment is hot, delaying rate cut expectations, US bond yields rise. High-valuation AI tech and storage sectors bear the heaviest pressure; growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow Jones value blue chips are relatively resilient, leading to a differentiated market.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm significantly weaker, unemployment rate rises
The market will strengthen rate cut expectations, US bond yields fall, benefiting tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware may see a recovery rebound. But beware of a risk: data too poor may trigger market concerns about economic recession, causing a short-term broad sell-off.
Scenario 3: Data basically matches expectations
Employment cools moderately, neither hot nor cold. US stocks continue the current split pattern, Dow Jones is relatively strong, Nasdaq fluctuates at high levels, and the market returns to earnings report logic with continued sector rotation.
Putting aside Nonfarm, the upcoming US market outlook:
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility after earnings disproof. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the earnings-driven expectation downgrade issue has not completely disappeared. The key focus is whether MU's critical support can hold; if it holds, it represents sectoral differentiated recovery; if it breaks down effectively, this round of storage market will enter mid-term valuation digestion. Do not mistake the oversold rebound for a new main upward wave.
2. Market structural differentiation will continue. Stocks with earnings guidance exceeding expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally is over, making stock picking more difficult.
3. Risks still cannot be ignored. The huge unlocking pressure of $SPCX remains and will occasionally disturb the market, amplifying intraday spike volatility.
Key stocks to watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with fading momentum and capital outflows:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Current market logic summary:
$BTC — The liquidity hub of the crypto market, determining the overall market heat level
$ETH — Institutional funds continue to accumulate, slowly consolidating chips through fluctuations
$SOL — The resilient player in the Layer1 track, with considerable upside when the market starts
$TAO & $WLD — AI mainline heat continues, repeatedly favored by capital
$HYPE — Market speculation sentiment gauge, used to judge current risk appetite
$DOGE & $ZEC — Retail sentiment window, directly reflecting short-term speculative heat