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When the guidance midpoint slips like a central pawn gently pushed over, sensitive funds immediately change direction; but a grandmaster's gaze never fixates on that pawn, instead focusing on the opponent's exposed king-side gap—Sandisk's move is not a leak, but a bait.
The earnings report is the opening already played out. Quarterly revenue and adjusted EPS exceeding consensus indicate the opening was not off-script. The guidance midpoint falling short next quarter is just a deliberate trap left during the midgame transition. The market rushes to interpret it as a prelude to weak demand, but I see an open line about to be unlocked—if management knows demand hasn't decelerated, then this conservative forecast is a containment tactic set for the August 13 investor day. It forces all opponents to choose between "cautious" and "weak," while true players have already prepared a third response: this is merely to adjust the mobility of their own pieces.
The supply-demand tides of NAND flash have never been a static composition. Players know that if you hesitate on the rear-wing pawn chain, the opponent will immediately control the d5 central square. The fundamental current game is whether the AI storage roadmap can become a true dark horse breakthrough. As the entire tech chessboard revolves around computing power and inference, storage accumulation and release become the midgame pawn chain structure. Will you choose to hold the current valuation or exchange that seemingly heavy defensive pawn early? Every public speech, every product roadmap adjustment, changes the direction of this pawn chain.
The $14 billion buyback is not a gesture but a clear long castling move—using the company's own funds to adjust the safety of the king's castle. It tells the market: even if short-term guidance has noise, the player remains confident they can survive to the endgame. But true masters watch whether this huge capital locks in future flexibility for NAND expansion and AI storage. Capital allocation is always a double-edged game: too conservative traps the bishop in the corner; too aggressive leaves the king exposed on open lines.
The US stock market linkage is more like mirrored moves on a synchronized chessboard. When Sandisk's piece shifts slightly, the derivative expectations represented by XLLY calculate equivalent changes on the same timeline. Many chase fleeting fluctuations on intraday charts, betting on opponent mistakes in a quick opening kill; but those who truly profit have rehearsed all branches of this path twenty moves ago. They don't look at the crumpled chart before them but at whether the entire formation's fulcrum is established.
The decisive move of the whole game is not in the past earnings nor next month's guidance. It lies in what management reveals on August 13—whether they open their calculation to show the best path to the AI storage endgame or merely play a mediocre transitional move. Every number laid down is a new clue; every defensive tone is a warning of flank threats. The fog on the board thickens, but what truly matters are the dark lines no one dares to glance at.
At this moment, the blind spot is not in the center of the board. #sandiskinvestorday #AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化
AI infrastructure financing heats up, with Nvidia and Intel taking two completely different expansion paths
The AI computing power arms race continues to intensify, and the way capital competes is undergoing a huge transformation. Nvidia and Intel have chosen two completely opposite financing routes, which also signals that the industry's future development pattern may see new changes.
Recently, Nvidia partnered with top Wall Street institutions such as BlackRock, Blackstone, and Goldman Sachs to build a new AI computing power financing platform, planning to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital. The core logic of this model is very clear: Nvidia does not directly use money to expand its own capacity but collaborates with financial giants to provide funding support to downstream customers, facilitating their purchase of GPUs and the construction of data centers. Simply put, Nvidia builds a channel to guide external funds toward computing power demand, further consolidating its chip sales foundation. This major cooperation is still underway, and the final agreement has not been finalized, but it is enough to shake the entire AI industry.
On the other hand, Intel has chosen an inward capital infusion route. Reports indicate that Intel's common stock issuance fundraising scale may be raised to $20 billion, with market subscription enthusiasm exceeding expectations and subscription demand already surpassing $100 billion. The funds raised will be entirely used to expand capital expenditures, supplement operating cash flow, and increase investment in AI chip R&D and advanced chip manufacturing production lines. Intel hopes to rely on additional financing to independently strengthen its manufacturing and chip business and actively participate in the computing power market competition.
The two models have fundamental differences. Nvidia leverages financial capital to empower downstream customers, using market funds to drive GPU demand, which is an outward capital leverage approach; Intel replenishes its own funds through equity financing, focusing on self-developed and self-produced products, expanding capacity relying on its own strength.
As AI industry investment scales grow larger, financing capability will become an important metric for capital markets to evaluate tech giants. Both routes have pros and cons: Nvidia's model can quickly enlarge the computing power market pie but continuously amplifies industry leverage, and if downstream computing power returns decline, the chain risks are considerable; Intel's additional issuance model can firmly control its own industrial chain but faces valuation pressure caused by equity dilution.
The era of deep integration between capital and technology has arrived. AI is no longer just a technology race but a long-term financial strength competition. The different choices of the two chip giants not only affect their own valuations but will also change the global AI computing power supply pattern, while influencing global tech assets and risk asset market expectations. Their subsequent moves are worth continuous tracking.#海力士推进NAND扩产，存储供给预期上升
I have been continuously following news in the storage sector recently. SK Hynix's push to expand NAND production is something worth calmly analyzing.
According to the currently disclosed plans, SK Hynix's Dalian Phase II NAND production line expansion is steadily progressing. It is expected that production equipment will be gradually introduced in the second half of 2026, and by the first half of 2027, an additional monthly wafer capacity of 30,000 to 50,000 will be gradually released. Expansion is not limited to domestic factories; Hynix is also increasing NAND capacity in its home base in South Korea. This expansion is a synchronized overall capacity increase, not just a regional move.
From the current perspective, with the rapid development of AI data centers, demand for enterprise-grade SSDs continues to rise. NAND chip supply remains tight overall, and the short-term logic of shortages and firm prices still holds. This is the core reason the storage sector has maintained its momentum recently.
However, the market always trades on expectations in advance, and risks often brew during hot market conditions. As major manufacturers' expansion plans come to fruition, the focus of capital is quietly shifting. Previously, the main discussion was about the short-term price gains from tight supply; going forward, the market debate will shift to 2027's demand—whether it can steadily absorb this wave of concentrated supply release—and how long this storage upcycle will last.
In short, short-term market sentiment still exists, and positive factors have not been fully realized yet. But medium- to long-term divergences are already in front of everyone. Investing in storage should not be blindly optimistic by only focusing on current shortages. While enjoying the current cycle's benefits, one must also be alert to uncertainties brought by future capacity releases. Managing timing will become increasingly important, and the tolerance for chasing highs will gradually decrease. Maintaining rational observation is the most appropriate attitude at present. #EarningsObserver: AI Infrastructure Earnings Season Kicks Off
Let's talk about this AI infrastructure earnings season—it's like a relay race, one after another, running at a frantic pace. Everyone is focused on the same core question: Have those years of heavy spending on AI investments actually turned into real profits?
First, look at CoreWeave. Q2 revenue hit 2.58 billion, doubling directly, with backlog orders ridiculously high at $104 billion, and the stock jumped 9% after hours. They're still losing money, but much less than expected. Simply put, the losses are purely due to aggressive capacity expansion; demand is rock solid. This company is basically a GPU rental giant, with customers lining up to pay for computing power, and orders booked years in advance. This isn’t just hype—it’s genuine supply shortage.
Next, Lumentum. Demand for optical modules really exploded, revenue doubled, EPS beat expectations, but after-hours only rose 1.8%. The market’s reaction was a bit lukewarm, probably because good expectations had already been priced in. The optical module sector is known for high prosperity, but when expectations are so high, even a slight miss on explosive growth makes the stock less enthusiastic. A classic "good news but not surprising enough" scenario.
Tonight, Coherent is up next. This company drives growth with both optical communications and lasers. Most likely, revenue and guidance won’t disappoint, but whether the market rewards it depends on if it can deliver stronger data than Lumentum, like improved gross margins or a surge in new orders.
Tomorrow night, AMAT (Applied Materials) is the main event. As a semiconductor equipment leader, its guidance directly impacts confidence across the entire chip supply chain for the second half of the year. If AMAT says customers are still expanding capacity, the AI infrastructure thesis stays strong; if it turns cautious, we’ll need to reassess.
Then on Thursday is $SNDK’s investor day. Storage chips have been lukewarm lately. Let’s see if they can present new stories, like enterprise SSDs or AI storage solutions ramping up.
After these three key events—Coherent, AMAT, and $SNDK’s investor day—we’ll basically know if AI infrastructure continues to be a story or if it’s time to get into the nitty-gritty numbers. Personally, I lean toward the former, but the market is numb to "in-line" good data now; only beats can create room.
As for $SPCX’s upcoming unlock, over 300 million shares will be released on August 20. We need to be aware of the pressure on the float. With such a large unlock, no matter how strong the fundamentals, short-term liquidity impact is unavoidable. Position management requires caution.
Overall, the AI infrastructure theme has solid long-term logic, but short-term volatility won’t be small. Earnings season is the process of separating truth from hype—real value withstands the test, while those swimming naked will be exposed sooner or later. We’ll watch and move forward.📡
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDivergesPut on hold for four years, SK Hynix suddenly restarts the Dalian NAND factory—AI is too hot, can't wait anymore
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📰 1. Event Overview: Factory halted for four years suddenly resumes work
On August 11, according to an exclusive report by South Korea's Seoul Economic Daily, SK Hynix has officially restarted construction of its No. 2 NAND flash production plant in Dalian, China.
This factory began construction in May 2022, but after completing the main framework, it was stalled for four years due to a downturn in the memory industry. Now, with the explosion of AI data center demand and a surge in enterprise solid-state drive (eSSD) demand, this "zombie factory" has been reactivated.
🏗️ 2. Capacity and Timeline: 50% capacity increase, production starting in the first half of next year
· Capacity plan: The new production line will have a monthly wafer output of about 50,000 wafers. Together with the existing 100,000 wafer capacity of Dalian Plant 1, the total capacity of the Dalian base will increase by about 50%.
· Production timeline: Equipment installation begins in November this year; mass production system to be established and officially launched in the first half of next year.
· Operating entity: Solidigm, SK Hynix's NAND subsidiary, is responsible for the advancement.
· Technology route: Dalian focuses on mature technology low-layer products (about 100-layer NAND), while Korea's Cheongju M17 plant concentrates on high-end products with over 300 layers, forming a differentiated division of labor between China and Korea.
🔥 3. Why restart now? — AI is too "hungry"
1. NAND prices surged nearly 10 times in one year
The expansion of AI data centers has driven a surge in enterprise solid-state drive (eSSD) demand, causing NAND flash prices to rise nearly 10-fold within a year. The investment shelved for four years has finally found its "accounting" moment.
2. AI servers "can't get enough"
Major cloud providers are accelerating AI data center deployments, continuously increasing procurement of high-capacity, high-reliability NAND products. Current capacity is completely insufficient to meet AI's appetite.
3. Dual-track layout taking shape
Dalian handles volume production of mature-layer products, while Cheongju M17 handles high-end products with over 300 layers. Using Dalian's mature capacity for volume and Cheongju's high-end capacity for profit, two legs are steadier than one.
📈 4. Impact on SK Hynix: Short-term positive, long-term a "double-edged sword"
Short-term: Supply tightens, stock price and sector already reacting
After the announcement, Southern doubled long SK Hynix ETF (07709) surged 5.5%; A-share semiconductor equipment sector also rose. The market interprets this as a signal of increased certainty in capacity expansion, directly boosting semiconductor equipment procurement demand.
Mid-term: Capacity release next year may change supply-demand dynamics
Monthly wafer output increases by 50,000, but this is a limited share of global NAND supply. More importantly, new capacity will only gradually release next year and cannot ease supply tightness in the second half of 2026. As long as AI demand maintains current growth, this new capacity will likely only moderately ease pressure, unable to reverse the overall supply shortage.
Long-term: Customer structure is a double-edged sword
SK Hynix is deeply tied to NVIDIA in the HBM field; this Dalian factory expansion further focuses on the enterprise NAND market. Some analyses point out that the company's core profits almost entirely come from NVIDIA's HBM orders. This is an advantage during AI demand surges but also concentrates risk if adjustments occur.
⚠️ 5. Risks and Challenges
1. Equipment import restrictions
US export controls on semiconductor equipment to China continue tightening, creating uncertainty whether the Dalian factory can smoothly import the required production equipment.
2. Korean brokers worry about storage cycle peak
Some Korean brokers have started worrying about a peak in the memory chip industry, slashing target prices for Samsung and SK Hynix by about 30%. The market is repricing between "capacity expansion" and "cycle peak."
3. Long-term overcapacity concerns
If AI demand growth slows and competitors like Samsung and Kioxia expand capacity simultaneously, this new capacity could turn from a "timely rain" into "adding insult to injury."
💎 6. Summary
SK Hynix's restart of the Dalian NAND factory is the most direct evidence of AI computing demand overflowing into the storage industry chain. The factory, shelved for four years, suddenly resumes not because policies changed, but because AI is just too "hungry"—enterprise SSD demand is exploding, NAND prices have risen 10 times in a year, and if production doesn't start now, it will really be too late.
Dalian's expansion is SK Hynix's "second battlefield" in the AI era—HBM is for "making big money," NAND is for "running large volumes." In the short term, this confirms strong AI demand; mid-term, the 50% capacity increase next year may change supply-demand dynamics; long-term, whether AI can stay "hungry" is the fundamental variable determining the ultimate return on this investment.
$SKHYNIX $SKHY #CLARITY延期，SEC拟推进监管规则补位
Recently, while following the progress of US crypto regulation, I noticed a very interesting pattern: Congressional legislation is delayed, but the SEC is preparing to take the lead by using departmental rules to fill the regulatory gaps.
Although the CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, the full Senate vote has been postponed until September, so its official enactment is still far off.
However, the SEC is not just waiting; it plans to hold a public meeting on August 14 to review arrangements related to crypto asset investment contract issuance, financing exemptions, and safe harbor provisions.
In other words, while top-level legislation at the Congressional level is not yet complete, the SEC intends to directly use its existing authority to define rules related to token issuance and project financing.
In my view, this is a very critical turning point.
Originally, the market was eagerly awaiting the CLARITY Act to provide a clear legal framework for the entire industry. Now, with the bill delayed, regulatory rules are taking the lead to fill the gap.
This raises two major questions:
First, can the SEC's administrative rules truly fill the regulatory void in the US crypto market?
Second, will this "regulation-first" approach directly rewrite the compliance development path of the US crypto industry going forward?
Everyone should closely watch the upcoming August 14 meeting, as the detailed rules that come out of it will directly influence the direction of the entire market. #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
PCE turned negative month-over-month, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
Let's talk about the two freshly released US data points. After reading them, it feels like the market is about to start tugging left and right again.
June's PCE surprisingly dropped 0.1% month-over-month, the first single-month negative value since 2020. Year-over-year it also fell to 3.7%, with core PCE steady at 3.3%. On the surface, the data shows inflation cooling quite clearly, and the urgency for short-term rate hikes has eased considerably.
But Q2 annualized GDP was only 1.5%, clearly missing the market expectation of 2.1%. Interestingly, after excluding exports, inventories, and government spending, private consumption actually surged to 3.9%, hitting a new high since 2023.
In simple terms: the overall economy is weakening, but people are still spending aggressively.
This puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: on one hand, inflation is falling; on the other, domestic demand remains strong. The probability of a rate hike in September is about 63%, so the market will likely need to reprice again.
The biggest question now is whether this PCE weakness marks the start of a downward inflation trend or is just a temporary monthly fluctuation influenced by oil prices. The final answer will depend on July's data.
The recent market is likely to fluctuate repeatedly, so it's not suitable for aggressive chasing. Be patient and wait for clearer direction before making moves. The CLARITY bill is stuck in the Senate, and the SEC doesn't intend to wait. On 8/14 (Friday), a public meeting is scheduled to propose its own "Regulation Crypto" issuance system.
Key points: proposed are a $5M 4-year startup exemption, another $5M 4-year startup exemption, a $75M 1-year fundraising exemption, and a safe harbor for compliant token issuances. This is essentially the regulator filling the gap when Congress legislation is absent.
But don't get too excited — this is still just a "proposal" and must go through the notice-and-comment process, which historically takes 12–18 months. The CLARITY vote on 9/15, requiring 60 votes, remains another main thread. Dual-track regulation is running in parallel, so certainty is still far off.
The SEC legislating on its own—do you think it's more reliable than Congress? Let's discuss in the comments.
#CLARITY延期，SEC拟推进监管规则补位 Wow, Nvidia is reportedly developing a new generation open-source large model Nemotron 4, with at least 1 trillion parameters, aiming to become a global leader in open-source models.
The chip giant is entering the open-source arena, sticking to the old strategy: expanding the AI application ecosystem openly to drive demand for its own GPU computing power. On August 11, Nvidia's stock closed down 0.02%, with almost no reaction to the news.
At the same time, Jensen Huang cooled down the $500 billion AI financing plan on X: Nvidia's support scale will not exceed 25% of any single project opportunity, based on residual value, only filling in, not replacing independent underwriters. The market had previously worried that Nvidia would bear too much risk exposure in this big plan; after the clarification, related credit risk indicators fell back on August 11.
The shovel seller has started training models themselves, but the real ledger is still computing power. 😂
#AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 #S&P closes at a new high again, 8000-point expectation heats up
On August 11, US stock markets closed with the S&P 500 down 0.32%, the Nasdaq down 0.6%, and the Dow down 0.34%. On the surface, it looks like a normal pullback, but breaking it down reveals contrasts: uncertainty in US-Iran negotiations supports oil prices, Brent crude rose 1.4% to $88.91, and the S&P energy sector rose 1.1%; meanwhile, Alphabet fell 3.8%, Amazon fell 2.1%.
Rising oil prices are not a uniform directional button for the market. Energy companies may benefit, but higher transportation, production, and inflation pressures will impose tougher interest rate expectations on high-valuation tech stocks.
This also explains why $BTC is affected. Crypto assets may not directly depend on oil prices but receive secondary shocks through risk appetite, the dollar, and interest rate expectations.
The real theme last night was not "the stock market fell," but the reallocation of funds between energy and growth assets.Really sorry, I honestly can't see who is buying this wave, $VELVET is indeed hard to be optimistic about in the short term.
Yesterday, everyone who followed my logic and shorted $DOS should have made a profit. Today, let's analyze another token that still looks unfavorable in the short term (velvet:native).
This project is a DeFAI narrative on-chain trading + portfolio management terminal, invested by YZi Labs and others, and it had a Binance Alpha IDO. In June, it surged from a low position to nearly $2 driven by the narrative (AI + synthetic Pre-IPO), but now it has fallen back to the 0.45-0.6 range, having halved twice from its ATH.
Here is the shorting logic:
➫ Real unlocking pressure: Around August 10, there will be a batch of unlocks (about 2% of supply, involving insiders, private, community, etc.), with a considerable amount.
➫ Market cap is seriously disconnected from real usage: MC is over 200 million, but TVL has long been at the million level or even lower. A large part of the trading volume is from washing Gems for rankings, airdrop farming, and referral farming.
➫ Signs of dumping: During the big surge in June, team-related and DWF-related addresses transferred a significant amount to exchanges.
➫ Heavy marketing smell: Airdrops + leaderboard events attract a bunch of KOLs to hype and promote. Short-term heat can hold, but once the hype fades, it’s just bag-holding.
➫ Historical black marks: In 2024, there was a front-end phishing incident, and the contract audit had serious issues early on (later fixed), trust has been damaged.
Shorting can be consideredUnlocking—these two words almost come with a horror movie soundtrack in the crypto market. Whenever any project announces a "token unlock" schedule, the community immediately becomes alarmed; many people's first reaction is "the price is going to crash again." But is the truth really that simple? Recently, @Tokenomist_ai conducted a study on 236 unlocking events, offering a different perspective. The real severe negative impact mainly concentrates on early-stage projects—those with very small circulating supplies where the unlocked amount is disproportionately large relative to the circulating supply. In other words, unlocking itself is not scary; what’s scary is a sudden surge of disproportionate supply during moments of low liquidity. The market gets spooked not because the sell orders are too large, but because the market depth can’t support that selling pressure. The essence of fear is a loss of proportional balance, not the numbers themselves. Looking at the Top 300 projects with less than 30% of their tokens unlocked is even more interesting. The following ten projects are currently still in a state where most tokens remain locked: RaveDAO’s $RAVE is 23.03% unlocked, Backpack’s $BP is 25.00%, Raydium’s $RAY is 26.00%, Lighter’s $LIT is 26.10%, Zama’s $ZAMA is 26.46%, Plasma’s $XPL is 26.89%, SentientAGI’s $SENT is 27.15% #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
Tonight's US July CPI is arguably the most important recent milestone, directly rewriting the pricing for the Fed's September rate hike.
Let's first review the previous nonfarm payrolls situation: July nonfarm employment unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000, showing weakening employment. Initially, the market adjusted down the September rate hike expectations accordingly. But market sentiment quickly reversed. Now, CME rate tools show a 52% probability of holding rates steady in September, and a 48% probability of a 25bp hike, with the split almost even and disagreement at its peak.
The market has left all suspense to tonight's CPI.
Currently, the market consensus expects: overall CPI monthly rate at 0.1%, core CPI monthly rate at 0.2%; year-over-year overall CPI expected at 3.4%, core CPI at 2.5%.
Two scenarios can be simply outlined:
1. Inflation continues to cool as expected, combined with weak employment data, the weak economic logic dominates, and September rate hike expectations will fall again, which is relatively favorable for risk assets.
2. Conversely, if core inflation exceeds expectations, the pressure to hike rates returns immediately. The dollar and US Treasury yields rise, and whether it's the US stock market or crypto market, they will have to re-digest the September policy risk, with volatility significantly increasing.
Now, employment and inflation signals are pulling in opposite directions. Which side the Fed will lean toward will be an important clue from tonight's data. In terms of trading, I think it is safer not to bet on the direction in advance. Capital expenditure restart and shareholding restructuring in storage chips have strengthened pricing power on the supply side, but Micron's 27% pullback from its high point indicates market divergence in digesting downstream demand rhythm, making position rebalancing risk the short-term dominant factor.
The secondary market shows a divergence between bulls and bears. $SKHYNIX price has risen to 1,048 with the stock up 4.7% in a single day, while Micron has pulled back 27% from its June high, reflecting a shift in risk appetite from chasing highs to structural selection. Dalian's capacity plan increased to 150,000 wafers and Kioxia's 14.19% equity restructuring are driving bullish funds to reallocate positions within the sector.
The transmission order of driving factors is: first, inventory down to about 4 weeks and the supply-demand squeeze formed by DRAM's 65% quarter-on-quarter price increase and NAND's 75% price increase in Q1; second, JPMorgan's upward revision of the global storage market size forecast for 2026 to $969 billion triggering valuation reconstruction; third, macro inflation expectations transmission brought by increased industry concentration.
The upward breakout scenario trigger condition is $SKHYNIX price stabilizing above the key support of 1,000, with the constraint of full-year price increases remaining effective. If the price surges to the 1,100-1,150 range, it will confirm AI demand's premium support for valuation. The scenario failure signal is the price falling below the 1,000 support level, at which point bullish funds need to close positions to lock in existing profits to avoid deep pullbacks.
The downward correction scenario trigger condition is the downstream digestion delay represented by Micron's 27% pullback spreading to the entire industry, causing concentrated profit-taking and triggering profit withdrawal. If the 1,000 stop-loss protection level is broken, the price may drop to the previous low valuation retest area reflected by the 134 stock. The scenario failure signal is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index regaining lost ground and driving tokenized stocks to break through 1,150.
If Dalian NAND's second factory adds 50,000 wafer capacity and accelerates release, although it expands market share in the long term, it may be interpreted by the market in the short term as capital expenditure expansion, changing the sustained pricing of the supply-demand gap. Whether fund preference can shift from defensive rebound to trend-driven rally depends on whether the price rise can withstand liquidity discounts during the US stock market holiday.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on $SKHYNIX's position consolidation at the key 1,000 level and whether the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index can break through a single-day increase of 0.87% to continue momentum.
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #CLARITY延期，SEC拟推进监管规则补位#财报观察员: AI infrastructure financial reports take the stage One after another. Currently, companies in the AI infrastructure sector are releasing their financial reports, with the overall process resembling a seamless relay race. The common core that the market and investors are closely watching is whether the AI infrastructure investments, which have been heavily invested in by capital in the past, can truly translate into substantial and substantial paper revenue and profits. Take computing power leasing service provider CoreWeave as an example: its second-quarter revenue performance was outstanding, reaching $2.58 billion, doubling; Meanwhile, the total backlog of outstanding orders soared to a staggering $104 billion, directly driving its stock price up 9% in after-hours trading. Although the company is still operating at a loss, the loss is clearly smaller than the market originally estimated. At its core, the current losses are entirely due to aggressive capacity expansions by companies to meet market demand, while front-end buyer demand remains very strong and has not recessed. On the other hand, optical communication module giant Lumentum also demonstrated explosive market demand for optical modules, with quarterly revenue multiplying and earnings per share (EPS) exceeding institutional expectations. However, its stock price only rose slightly by 1.8% in after-hours trading, indicating a relatively calm market response. This rather flat market feedback reflects that investors may have already priced in the related positive expectations in stock prices. Looking ahead to upcoming market trends, Tonight's Coherent earnings report will be released📌 SanDisk SNDK August 13 Investor Day Preview
I. Basic Meeting Information
Investor Day will be held at 9 AM Eastern Time on Thursday, with core disclosures including:
1. HBF storage technology roadmap and commercialization timeline
2. BiCS10 10th generation 3D NAND technology details
3. SSD capacity expansion plan and long-term supply cooperation agreement
Both technologies are designed to address AI storage bottlenecks and are key highlights of this market event.
II. Breakdown of Two Core Technologies
1. HBF (jointly developed by SanDisk × SK Hynix)
Positioned between high-end HBM memory and conventional SSDs, filling the gaps on both sides:
- HBM is costly with small capacity; traditional SSDs have low bandwidth and slow read/write speeds, HBF strikes a balance
- Uses 8/16-layer NAND stacking, up to 512GB per module, bandwidth 0.4~3TB/s, UCIe interface can connect directly to GPU and CPU
- Google and Tenstorrent have joined the ecosystem; it primarily solves the AI large model inference storage wall problem: no matter how powerful the GPU, data read speed can bottleneck performance
2. BiCS10 10th Generation 3D NAND (jointly developed by SanDisk + Kioxia)
- 332-layer stacked QLC flash, bit density increased by 59% over previous generation, sample delivery starts in the second half of the year
- CBA wafer bonding process, separately optimizing logic circuits and storage arrays, high density, low power consumption, targeting AI data lakes and RAG knowledge base storage scenarios
III. Current Stock Fundamentals
1. Stock price fell from June high of 2354 to 1214, a drop of nearly 48%, with a P/E ratio of only 6x, valuation significantly compressed
2. Last quarter revenue was 8.97 billion, exceeding expectations, but earnings guidance was lowered by 250 million, causing short-term market sentiment to weaken
3. Institutional target prices: Citi at 2500, analyst average 2220, indicating ample upside potential; slight pressure from insider high-level selling but not a core negative factor
IV. Key Market Judgment
Market direction fully depends on clarity of HBF commercialization:
1. ✅ Clear roadmap and mass production timeline: technology story translates into revenue expectations, capital will lift valuation again, stock price will enter a recovery phase
2. ❌ Vague plans and unclear timelines: remains a thematic concept, stock price likely to oscillate and bottom around 1200 for a long time
Essence: The market is now watching whether HBF and BiCS10 can move from pure technical concepts to solid revenue and earnings.
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice#海力士推进NAND扩产，存储供给预期上升 #AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Tonight's CPI is coming, some are happy and some are worried
Bitcoin $BTC has fallen for two consecutive days, and Ethereum has also slipped from around 1,930 to 1,880.
My view:
No rate hike in September, but short-term pressure hasn't fully released. Non-farm payrolls turned negative, credit tightening, inflation trend going down—these three together mean Powell has no reason to hike aggressively. He's been hawkish since taking office, but the data shows—employment is contracting, core inflation is cooling, so hiking now doesn't hold up logically.
CME prices the rate hike probability at about 45%, which sounds intimidating, but the US Treasury market has already signaled—2-year yields can't rise further, the market simply doesn't believe it.
What really troubles the crypto space are two forces: ETF funds are flowing out, with a net outflow of 145 million on August 10; oil prices are topping, the Hormuz Strait agreement hasn't been finalized, Brent is approaching $90. Inflation won't come down, so even if Powell wants to ease, he can't find a way out.
$XAU gold is soaring, breaking through the $4,400 mark.
Ethereum $ETH is more sensitive to interest rate expectations than BTC; staking yields are directly related to funding costs. Now it's grinding between 1,850-1,920; if CPI is moderate, it will likely break through 1,930, next stop 2,000. Bitcoin breaking through 65,000 is definitely no problem.
$SPCX here, the first batch of 911.5 million shares unlocked on August 6 didn't crash the market; the stock price actually rose 23% over two days, approaching the $135 IPO price. But on August 20, another 319 million shares will unlock (about 7%), about 700 million shares in September, and nearly 700 million in October; the supply is still increasing.
$SNDK's investor day on Thursday is a big event. Q4 revenue surged 372% but the stock fell 7% after hours—the market wants the HBF mass production node and BiCS10 timeline, not past data. If given clearly, the stock will be repriced; if not, 1,200 will still be tested.
Watch core month-over-month and rent at 8:30 tonight. CPI will only reinforce one judgment: no rate hike in September, and these assets will react ahead of the market.
#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 $GOOGL
$SPCX
$GOOG is quite impressive, to be honest! Recently, its disclosed external investment holdings show that it holds about 95% in $SPCX, a single company!
Invested 900 million, over 15 years, now worth 90 billion USD, a return of over 100 times……
Let me share some details with you……
According to Alphabet's 13F as of June 30, 2026, it disclosed a total of 29 public securities holdings with a total market value of about 99.08 billion USD; among them, SpaceX has 551,189,500 shares, valued at about 94.18 billion USD at the end of the quarter, accounting for about 95.05% of the entire 13F portfolio.
But here is a very crucial detail: this is not Google suddenly spending over 90 billion USD recently to buy SpaceX.
On the contrary, this is actually a super long-term investment held for more than 10 years.
In January 2015, Google participated in SpaceX's financing. Alphabet later clearly disclosed in its 10-K that Google invested 900 million USD in SpaceX at that time;
Media reports then stated that Google obtained about 7.5% of the shares, corresponding to a SpaceX valuation of about 12 billion USD. Google and Fidelity together invested 1 billion USD in that round, acquiring nearly 10% of SpaceX.
In other words:
2015: Google invested about 900 million USD.
Q2 2026: SpaceX holdings in 13F valued at about 94.18 billion USD.
Of course, this cannot be simply and crudely understood as "Google made 104 times profit," because there are dilution, equity changes, stock splits, and other factors in between;
But it can still be considered one of Google's most beautiful strategic investments in history.
And there is another easily misunderstood point in this 13F that I haven't seen anyone talk about.
That is, after SpaceX went public in June this year, the portion of shares Google has held long-term entered the 13F as public securities for the first time.
So what this 13F really tells us is not that Google just bought SpaceX, but that after the IPO, we finally clearly see how much SpaceX Google actually holds.
Moreover, the 94.18 billion USD is the market value as of June 30, corresponding to the 551,189,500 shares disclosed in 13F, which roughly translates to a quarter-end market price of 170.86 USD per share, not Google's actual cost price.
Google's very earliest cost was still that 900 million USD from more than ten years ago.
Even more interestingly, look at the remaining 5% of Alphabet's public investment portfolio:
$PL Planet Labs about 1.17 billion USD;
$ASTS AST SpaceMobile about 795 million USD;
$ARM about 695 million USD;
There are also a batch of AI, biotech, and software companies.
So Google's past investments actually have a pretty obvious characteristic:
I find it very interesting, so let me say a bit more……
It doesn't only buy companies exactly the same as its main business, but is willing to bet very early on foundational infrastructure that might become important in the next decade.
AI, autonomous driving, life sciences, satellites, communication networks are all like this.
And the SpaceX investment is especially typical.
SpaceX in 2015 was far from the SpaceX of today; at that time, Starlink hadn't even officially commercialized, yet Google had already put up 900 million USD to bet on it.
More than a decade later, SpaceX has gradually connected rockets, Starlink, AI, satellite communications, and even future orbital data centers into a complete set of infrastructure.
So after seeing this 13F myself, I am even more confident in my previous long-term judgment on $SPCX.
Short-term stock price will of course be affected by valuation, financial reports, CAPEX, and lock-up releases; I was bearish when I should be bearish before.
😂😂😂
But in the long run: I still have great confidence in SpaceX.
Sometimes the real big opportunity is not found by holding 100 companies.
But by truly understanding one company and being willing to accompany it for ten years.
Actually, to say a bit more, a good company investing in another good company, stepping on each other's feet, is not unusual. When I talked about Tencent last time, I mentioned Tencent has invested in many pretty good companies domestically, which is also a way to make profits.
Later I will dig deeper into things we can talk about, see you next time…… Before $BTC breaks out, which will likely start first, $ETH or $SOL? The key is not the increase, but the "relative strength".
Recently, the market has been discussing altcoin rotation, but it's still too early to call it an "altcoin season."
BTC is still oscillating around a key area, while a few days ago, SOL showed obvious relative strength, once hitting a two-week high.
To judge whether ETH or SOL will be stronger in the next phase, I won't just look at USDT trading pairs.
What really matters is:
ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC.
Assuming BTC rises 3% and ETH rises 2%, on the surface ETH also rose, but ETH/BTC is actually weakening.
Conversely, if BTC is sideways, and SOL rises 3%, with SOL/BTC continuously breaking through, that indicates funds are actively increasing SOL allocation.
Capital rotation usually follows:
BTC stabilizes → ETH/SOL strengthen relative to BTC → mainstream altcoin trading increases → funds further spread to hot sectors.
There is also a macro variable that cannot be ignored: tonight's CPI.
Research data shows that changes in CPI expectations have some predictive power over the realized volatility of alt assets like ETH and SOL. That is to say, if tonight's inflation data significantly deviates from expectations, ETH and SOL may experience more intense volatility than BTC.
So I won't chase a coin just because it is "resistant to decline" now, but wait for three conditions:
BTC no longer hits new lows; ETH/BTC or SOL/BTC start to strengthen continuously; price increase accompanied by increased spot trading volume.
Only when all three conditions appear simultaneously does the credibility of capital rotation significantly improve.
Risk boundary: If BTC breaks core support, the altcoin rotation logic needs to be recalculated. True strength is not following BTC up, but having funds willing to actively buy even when BTC is sideways or slightly pulling back.
#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 $CRWV $KORU
CRWV:
Current price 104.29, +17.71% in 24 hours, range 84.61-105.46, stuck between 103.10-104.63 in the last 2 hours. On the 15-minute chart, the main volume surge was near 88 pushing up to 105, then volume shrank and price moved sideways. Funding rate is 0, OI about 1.51 million U, more like a revaluation and short covering triggered by earnings. It is CoreWeave, a US-listed AI cloud computing company. On August 11, official Q2 revenue was $2.575 billion, backlog about $104 billion, a clear catalyst. Risks are also significant: net loss of $626 million, expansion is very costly, if 103 support fails, better not to hold on.
KORU:
Current price 18.55, +8.67% in 24 hours, range 16.61-18.63, lifted from 17.88 in the last 2 hours. On the 15-minute chart, volume concentrated in the 17.65-18.23 breakout zone, about 1.92 million U traded in the last hour, funding rate 0, OI about 3.26 million U, more like a recovery in Korean equity risk appetite. KORU is the Direxion 3x long Korea stock market ETF, tracking MSCI Korea 25/50, with heavy weights in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. No confirmed recent catalysts, watch if Korean tech stocks, exchange rates, and US AI chain can continue the momentum. Risk is 3x ETF volatility erosion, if it can't break 18.63, don't chase aggressively.
#CRWV #KORU #AI computing power #Korean tech stocks📊 $RE Contract Liquidation Express (August 12)
According to liquidation data, RE shows a pattern of rapid directional shifts in the short term and strong bullish dominance in the mid-to-long term:
· Short term (1H/4H): 1-hour long liquidations at $87.89, short liquidations at **$0, shorts completely targeted and wiped out; 4-hour long liquidations $87.89 (same as 1-hour), shorts $8,588.24, shorts crushing longs by 97.7 times**, an extreme reversal from a short squeeze to a rapid long kill in the short term, with short chasers being specifically liquidated.
· Mid-to-long term (12H/24H): 12-hour long liquidations $23,700, shorts $10,300, longs are 2.3 times shorts; 24-hour long liquidations $56,300, shorts $39,500, longs are 1.43 times shorts. The scale of long liquidations in the mid-to-long term continues to expand, but the 24-hour ratio narrows significantly, indicating a balance of long and short forces.
· Total liquidations exceed $95,800**, with long liquidations at $56,300, accounting for nearly 59%, longs slightly dominant but the long-short gap is not large**.
⚠️ Risk Warning: RE short-term direction shows extreme shifts (1H short squeeze → 4H long kill), with very high risk of both long and short liquidation; 24-hour long-short ratio narrows to 1.43 times, indicating unclear direction. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, avoid chasing rallies or panic selling, strictly control position size and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 12
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is moving from "storytelling" to fully "answering the test" — the capital feast of AI infrastructure is entering its first round of return verification.
🏗️ Cloud Providers' Earnings Report: AI Investment Enters Return Verification Period
In Q2 earnings season, the four major cloud providers delivered the first "report card" on AI investment. Amazon AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters; Microsoft Azure grew 43% year-over-year, with annual Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time; Google Cloud revenue hit $24.8 billion, soaring 82% year-over-year. Combined cloud business revenue of the three reached about $116.2 billion, up approximately 43% year-over-year.
More importantly, order backlogs. AWS backlog reached $496 billion, triple-digit growth year-over-year; Google Cloud backlog $514 billion; Microsoft commercial RPO rose 84% year-over-year to $678 billion — visibility of future revenue is improving.
But the cost is also real. Amazon's free cash flow turned from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion over the past 12 months; Google’s free cash flow is under short-term pressure. The four companies’ quarterly capital expenditures have soared to $151.4 billion.
The market is voting with its feet: rewarding companies that can convert computing power into real cloud revenue, punishing narratives with investment but no returns.
📊 CPI Released Tonight: The Scale of September Rate Hike Hangs in the Balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on August 12, the US July CPI will be released. The market expects overall CPI year-over-year to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Before the data release, CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike remains at 51.2%.
Deutsche Bank expects CPI month-over-month at 0.15%, core CPI at 0.26%. Cleveland Fed forecasts July overall CPI month-over-month to rise slightly by 0.09%, core CPI by 0.21%. If tonight’s data exceeds expectations, the hawkish camp will quickly expand; if moderate, rate hike expectations may further fade.
💰 Nvidia $500 Billion vs Intel $20 Billion: Diverging Paths
On August 10, two chip giants simultaneously announced financing plans.
Nvidia, together with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, KKR, and six other institutions, established an independent computing power financing platform aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital. Jensen Huang stated: "Computing power has now become infrastructure like electricity and the internet." Essentially, this turns GPUs from consumables into financeable foundational assets. After the announcement, Nvidia’s stock closed down 2.86%.
Intel announced a $20 billion common stock issuance, the largest single equity financing since its 1971 IPO. The stock closed down 4.06% on the announcement day. Both paths point to the same conclusion: the AI chip competition has escalated from a technology race to a capital race.
💎 Summary
Cloud providers prove AI demand is real with 43% revenue growth, but the $151.4 billion quarterly capital expenditure reminds the market — the burn rate has never slowed; every basis point of tonight’s CPI may decide which way the September rate hike scale tips; and Nvidia and Intel’s $500 billion and $20 billion financing plans announced on the same day declare the AI race has officially entered a "capital-intensive" new phase. When industry logic, macro narratives, and capital strategies converge on the same day, the market is moving from "storytelling" to fully "answering the test." #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 🦅AI Infrastructure Earnings Cycle Analysis: Performance Validates the Reality of AI Demand, Multiple Leading Companies' Earnings Reports Released in Succession
1. Core Logic of This AI Earnings Season
Optical module manufacturers, cloud computing power providers, and semiconductor equipment companies are releasing earnings reports concentratedly. The core evaluation criterion is simple: whether the AI capital expenditures made by major companies have truly converted into solid revenue, to determine if the AI industry chain demand is merely speculative hype or genuine demand realization.
2. Breakdown of Reported Earnings
1. CoreWeave ($CRWV Computing Power Leasing)
After-hours stock price rose 9%, Q2 earnings significantly exceeded expectations:
1. Quarterly revenue of $2.58 billion, a year-over-year surge of 112%;
2. Net loss of $626 million, better than the market expectation of $757 million, with a substantial narrowing of losses;
3. Backlog orders reached $104 billion, with core clients including OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, and other leading AI companies.
Conclusion: Demand for computing power leasing continues to explode; losses are due to capacity expansion, with no issues on the downstream demand side.
2. Lumentum (Optical Module Manufacturer)
Q4 revenue of $1.01 billion, revenue doubled year-over-year, EPS exceeded expectations by $0.28;
Simultaneously tied to Google TPU and Nvidia GPU AI computing power routes, AI optical module demand is materializing.
However, after-hours stock only rose 1.8%, reflecting that the market had already priced in the upside, so the earnings realization was taken as a positive confirmation.
3. Key Earnings Reports Pending Disclosure
1. Coherent (After market close on August 12)
Core supplier of AI optical interconnects, market expects revenue of $1.98 billion, up 30% year-over-year. The earnings report will verify whether the AI optical communication industry growth is accelerating.
2. Applied Materials AMAT (After market close on August 13, semiconductor equipment leader)
Expected revenue of $9 billion, up 23% year-over-year. As a semiconductor equipment leader, its performance reflects chip manufacturers' willingness to expand production, determining the upstream capacity cycle.
4. Other Key Events
1. SpaceX ($SPCX) Lock-up Period
The first batch of shares unlocked on August 6 did not trigger a sell-off, and the stock price held above the IPO price; however, the second batch unlock on August 20 involves 319 million shares, about 7% of total shares. Subsequent large share unlocks will continue in September and October, increasing supply and likely suppressing stock price elasticity long-term.
2. SanDisk SNDK (Investor Day on August 13)
Will announce HBF technology roadmap and BICS10 commercialization timeline; includes grid trading arbitrage cases, with grid strategy yielding stable returns in a range-bound market.
5. Overall Summary
Tonight's Coherent and tomorrow night's AMAT earnings, combined with Thursday's SanDisk investor day, will directly determine the future direction of the AI infrastructure market:
If earnings exceed expectations, the AI high-growth narrative continues; if performance falls short, capital will return to earnings valuation logic, starting to deflate speculative bubbles. #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $BTC
Whales increased holdings by 46,420 BTC over 60 days, but network activity dropped by 45%
Addresses holding over 10,000 BTC have net increased their holdings by 46,420 coins (approximately $2.97 billion) in 60 days, with chips continuously concentrating from dispersed holders to super whales. Long-term holder (LTH) supply has simultaneously decreased, further confirming the trend of chip concentration.
On the other hand: network transaction volume has dropped 45% year-over-year, creating a stark structural contradiction between on-chain activity and whale accumulation behavior. Large holders are accumulating, but the market lacks trading depth, resulting in insufficient short-term rebound momentum. This contrasts with the previous report of miner whales liquidating (selling 6,494 BTC in 20 days), indicating different batches of whales—the behavior of market participants is clearly diverging. CoreWeave surged sharply after hours, but I hope it pulls back a bit instead of rushing up all at once.
Last night, CoreWeave's earnings report was indeed impressive, with revenue of 2.58 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, and a backlog of orders reaching 104 billion. It jumped about 15% after hours. Honestly, this data is quite important for restoring confidence in the AI infrastructure sector.
That said, while the earnings are good, the sharp rise feels a bit inflated. The market just had a big run, so I actually hope it pulls back a bit instead of fully pricing in all expectations at once. After all, the company does have high debt, with interest expenses more than doubling, and after every big surge, there are profit-taking sellers. Also, SpaceX has new moves, starting to sell excess computing power externally, and Meta might launch its own cloud services. Although the threat is not significant yet, it will somewhat cap the valuation ceiling.
With 104 billion in orders on the table and AI demand still there, it's safer to move gradually rather than all at once at this price level. A pullback could actually create more room for growth later.
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 ——$CRWV #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
Tonight at 8:30 PM, the CPI data will be released. The rate hike expectations are currently split 50-50 — CME FedWatch shows a 52% probability of keeping rates unchanged in September and a 48% probability of a 25 basis point hike. The market expects the overall CPI annual rate to drop from 3.5% to 3.4%, and the core CPI annual rate to fall from 2.6% to 2.5%.
Core CPI is the real decisive factor
Expected month-over-month is 0.2%, annual rate 2.5%. The Cleveland Fed Nowcasting model shows July core CPI rising 0.21% month-over-month. If the actual data is close to 0.2%, it basically meets expectations, and the market may not fluctuate much. But if it exceeds 0.25%, the probability of a September rate hike will likely jump back above 60%.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee hawkish before CPI release said, "Inflation is the biggest current problem." Both Fed hawks and doves are waiting for this data; who wins or loses depends entirely on the numbers.
Three possibilities
Core CPI meets expectations (0.2% month-over-month, 2.5% year-over-year): September rate hike probability stays around 50%, BTC short-term oscillates between 63,000-65,000. Sandisk grid continues running its volatility.
Core CPI below expectations (0.1% or lower): September rate hike probability may drop to 30%-40%, $BTC has a chance to break through 65,000 and even challenge 66,000. $XAU gold may break 4420 and continue upward.
Core CPI above expectations (0.3% or higher): September rate hike probability may jump directly above 70%, BTC may retest 62,000 or even 61,000. Gold faces short-term pressure.
My position
$SNDK Sandisk grid has been running for 7 and a half days, arbitraged 3,439 times, grid profit 39U, unpaired loss narrowed to -29U, total profit +9.79U. Price near 1290, lower bound 1219, upper bound 1490, space sufficient.
Regardless of CPI data quality, as long as the price fluctuates within the range, the grid will keep running. The only caution is a large data surprise causing the price to break below the lower bound, but with a forced liquidation price at 919, there is still over 300 points of buffer, so no need to panic for now. 🦅 In-depth Analysis of Capital Game: Institutional ETFs Bottom Fishing, Whale Miners Selling, Complete Divergence in BTC and ETH Trends
1. Core Situation: Capital Long-Short Tug of War, BTC Stuck in Sideways Consolidation
ETH's weekly ETF inflow nears 1.1 billion, while BTC price falls below 64,000; the market polarization essentially reflects a battle between institutional buyer funds and whale seller chips. Tonight's US July CPI data is the biggest short-term variable; the market widely expects CPI year-over-year to drop to 3.4%. Continued inflation decline will raise rate cut expectations, and with risk appetite warming, ETH's upward momentum has historically been stronger than BTC's.
Many wonder: why does BTC spot ETF continue large net inflows yet the price still oscillates around 64,000? The core answer is institutional buying on one side, concentrated selling by whales and miners on the other, causing a capital long-short standoff and short-term market deadlock.
1. Buyers: Wall Street ETFs steadily accumulating for the long term
Last week, US BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days totaling $853 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $694 million, over 80% of total inflows.
BlackRock has stated these funds are primarily for long-term allocation; even though many institutions bought at $100,000 or $110,000 highs, they won't panic sell despite large unrealized losses. Simply put, Wall Street institutions are slowly and steadily buying at the $60,000 level, showing strong buying resilience.
2. Sellers: On-chain whales and miners concentratedly cutting losses and fleeing, creating heavy selling pressure
On-chain monitoring data clearly shows selling pressure:
1. Anonymous whales sold a total of 7,513 BTC over three weeks, equivalent to about $487 million;
2. Suspected miner addresses deposited 6,494 BTC to Binance within 20 days, selling at an average price of $64,798, worth $421 million;
One batch of chips was bought at a high of $116,110 a year ago, now taking a 44% loss to cut losses.
Not only retail investors are cutting losses, large holders with significant chips are also exiting and cashing out, sustaining selling pressure that suppresses BTC gains.
Summary of the current pattern: ETF long-term funds keep absorbing, while on-chain whales and miners continue to sell; buyers are new institutional funds off-exchange, sellers are existing chips on-exchange fleeing. Both sides fiercely clash around the 64,000 mark, causing BTC volatility to drop to the year's low, with bulls and bears temporarily balanced.
2. Key Divergence: ETH Capital Accumulation Efficiency Surpasses BTC, Their Trends Diverge
Recently, capital flows for the two major coins show clear differences:
Single-day capital dimension: BTC ETF net inflow about $112 million, ETH ETF net inflow about $56.78 million;
Seven-day dimension: ETH ETF cumulative net inflow of 118,500 ETH, valued at $225 million.
Though ETH's total capital is less than BTC's, relative to market cap, ETH's capital absorption efficiency is higher and chip concentration speed faster.
ETH also shows a more pronounced advantage in drawdown: BTC's maximum drop from peak is nearly 50%, ETH fell from 4,800 to 1,900, a drop over 60%. Larger downside means better valuation cost-effectiveness and higher rebound ceiling.
3. CPI Data Determines Subsequent Market Direction
1. CPI below expectations, inflation cooling
Rate cut expectations rise, liquidity easing boosts risk assets; ETH, due to high chip concentration and deeper drop, will have much stronger rebound momentum than BTC;
2. CPI above expectations, inflation rebounds
Rate hike expectations rise again, the entire crypto market will face synchronized pressure and correction, with no independently strong assets.
4. Final Summary
Currently, the market is in a calm period before CPI release, with hidden uncertainties:
BTC's advantage is strong institutional faith and solid ETF fund support, but persistent on-chain selling pressure drags the upward pace;
ETH's deeper drop and lower valuation, combined with recent better capital inflow efficiency, mean once the market warms, its elasticity advantage will be fully unleashed. $BTC $ETH #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ 🐸 Meme coin traders—this is a hunting ground tailored just for you. The platform is offering a $20,000 BTC prize pool to reward sentiment traders in the market. The rules are simple and direct: buy or deposit $SHIB, $DOGE, $PEPE, with a total of 2,000 winning spots, ending on August 25. But don't treat it as just a marketing campaign—there's a deeper signal behind it. 🔥 On the surface, it's a reward, but at its core, it's a battle for liquidity. The narrative of Meme coins has never been about value discovery, but about close engagement. The platform chose this time window to target the most active period of retail funds in the meme sector. Through lottery-style incentives, it reactivates the wait-and-see capital that has settled in the market, while injecting buying pressure into these three asset categories—smart money sees chip turnover, not just a simple benefit handout. 📊 On the data side, the 2,000 winners are set up with very subtle nuances. It's not a universal model of 'everyone wins,' but rather a mindset of expecting a 'high probability of winning.' This precisely hits the most vulnerable nerve for traders: FOMO and luck coexist. More importantly, the event rules especially emphasize the dual channels of 'buy or recharge,' meaning the platform wants to capture both incremental trading and activate existing positions. Killing two birds with one stone, skillful tactics. 💡 For market participants, the real information is not about the size of the prize pool, but about the platform's bet attitude toward the meme coin sector. During a period of overall cautious sentiment, daring to use real money to incentivize these three tokens speaks for itselfThis wave was stepped on correctly, SK Hynix's stock rose another 4.7% today. What exactly is the storage chip sector speculating on this time?
Still holding the long position on SKHYNIX 997, current price 1,048, floating profit 126%. The stock rose another 4.7% today, rebounding from a low of 134 to now 141.65, roughly a 5% bounce. Let's talk about what's been happening recently in the storage chip sector.
Dalian expansion, restarting the second factory
SK Hynix has restarted construction of the Dalian NAND flash second factory, aiming to increase local production capacity by 50%. The new production line has a monthly capacity of about 50,000 wafers, combined with the existing 100,000 wafers from the first factory, bringing Dalian's total capacity to 150,000 wafers. This factory started construction four years ago but was halted due to industry downturns. Its restart indicates a change in industry expectations. NAND prices have increased nearly tenfold over the past year.
Becoming Kioxia's largest shareholder
Toshiba has been continuously reducing its holdings, and SK Hynix, through SPC2, holds 14.19% of Kioxia's shares, surpassing Toshiba's 14.06%, becoming the largest shareholder. The NAND flash industry landscape is being reshuffled.
The fundamentals of storage chips are indeed shifting
JPMorgan has raised its global storage market size forecast to about $969 billion in 2026, expected to reach $1.44 trillion in 2027, and $1.82 trillion in 2028. AI demand is driving simultaneous growth in storage chip prices and shipments, and this logic remains intact. SK Hynix's DRAM unit price rose 65% quarter-over-quarter in Q1, NAND rose 75%. The company clearly stated that this year, demand from all customers cannot be fully met, and price increases will continue throughout the year. Inventory is down to about 4 weeks.
The secondary market is also moving
At the Korean stock market open, Samsung rose over 4%, SK Hynix rose over 2%. The US storage sector also rose yesterday, with SK Hynix up 4.7%, SanDisk up 2.68%, Seagate up 2.44%, Micron up 0.87%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.87%. However, Micron has fallen 27% from its June all-time high, indicating significant divergence.
My judgment
The logic of the stock stabilizing + token oversold is still in play. The three news items—Dalian expansion, Kioxia equity, JPMorgan's raised forecast—overlap, keeping short-term sentiment alive. Continuing to hold the 997 long position; the first target of 1,050-1,070 has been reached, next looking at 1,100-1,150. Stop loss moved up to 1,000 to lock in profits.
The storage chip story is not over yet, but it has risen too much in the short term, so watch the rhythm.
Brothers, what do you think about this storage market wave? Let's chat in the comments. Personal views for reference only 🤫 👇$SKHYNIX #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Account Position Divergence Radar
Whether directional consensus is true or false can be known by comparing account proportions with top holdings.
$DOGE account numbers consistently lean bullish, but the top holdings ratio remains below 1, meaning the numerical advantage has not translated into a top position advantage. Positions expand during the decline, with selling pressure supported by new positions, but open interest alone cannot confirm a bearish direction. If the price rises but top holdings continue to lean bearish, position measurement conflicts are likely during pullbacks.
$CAP account numbers consistently lean bearish, but the top holdings ratio is above 1, so the bearish number advantage has not turned into a top short position advantage. Price and holdings fall in sync; this phase should be treated as a reduction in positions during the decline. Until the top holdings ratio falls back below 1, the bearish account advantage remains an incomplete consensus.
$XRP account numbers have already shifted bullish, but the scale of top positions has not followed; the current divergence comes from quantity versus weighting. The decline has not led to position expansion; first, observe when risk exposure contraction slows. The account side is already bullish; next, it depends on whether top positions are willing to consolidate their weighting on the same side. $BICO surged previously, attracting considerable market attention. After reaching the peak, $BICO entered a fairly long period of consolidation, but the result was no major rebound. I infer that $BICO is unlikely to see a major rebound in the short term, meaning $BICO's story is temporarily over. If nothing unexpected happens, $BICO will continue to decline going forward. It could even fall to a lower level than the initial rise. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract open interest saw a small increase yesterday, and the corresponding contract long-short ratio is declining. This shows that during yesterday's rebound, there were many short sellers. Let's look at the data from a longer period. It can be seen that although the current price is about the same as a couple of days ago, However, its contract open interest is much lower than in the previous two days, and the long-short ratio has also risen significantly. This indicates that the price stability over the past two days is likely due to short positions taking profit. Short profit-taking actually has both pros and cons. The benefit is that the pressure on short selling is reduced. The downside is that market liquidity also decreases. Liquidity is the foundation of all rises; an increase without liquidity is rootless duckweed. —————————————————— Based on my judgment, I believe $BICO is unlikely to see significant improvement in the short term. Could it surge again in the next cycle? I'm not sure about thatI know many people still don't believe BTC has bottomed and are waiting for 40k
I just scanned altcoins that have dropped significantly over the past 2 years. After 2 years of accumulation, some have started to break out, and some have even increased 10 times. These are all signs of the market bottoming. Although most of the market won't rise together until October, the same thing has happened repeatedly over the years; there will always be some coins that start first and lead the pack.
Just because you can't get the meat doesn't mean there isn't any, and don't blame the market if you lack the skills.
#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $BTC $ETH On the eve of CPI, the crypto market's "risk appetite + safe haven" dual failure — I can clearly see this state on the charts. Don't blindly bet on direction within the range; this is the most certain judgment right now.
♾️ BlockInfinity 8/11 California Tuesday: On the eve of CPI, crypto's "risk appetite + safe haven" dual failure, don't blindly bet on direction within the range
🌐 Macro
The biggest variable this week = US July CPI (released Wednesday). Consensus: overall YoY 3.4% (previous 3.5%), core 2.5% (previous 2.6%). Two scenarios — ① Data hotter → stagflation concerns, US stocks sell off, Powell may lean toward rate hikes; ② <3% → risk appetite returns, unwind of this year's rate hike pricing. Employment "bad news = good news," but CPI "bad news is bad news." Fed pricing ~28bp hike in December, ~50/50 chance in September. Timiraos: More FOMC members focus on CPI to decide "whether more hikes are needed"; new chair Powell downplays "data-dependent" framework, but old framework still dominates.
🌍 International Situation
Strait of Hormuz remains closed: Iran's Supreme National Security Council reiterates "US won't reopen without conditions" (end war + unfreeze funds), US continues "maximum pressure" on Iran. Hedge signals: Pakistan hints US-Iran close to deal → oil prices give back early gains; explosion at Libya's Zawiya refinery. US intelligence judges Iran's strategic focus shifted from nuclear program to the strait, military control assessed as "long, deadly, very costly, no guaranteed victory" → geopolitical premium unlikely to retreat.
🛢️ WTI $83.20 (+1.3%, retreated from intraday +5% high); 🥇Gold $4,370 (pulled back from two-month high), Silver $64.64 (−1.9%), Copper $6.685 (+0.2%).
📈 Technicals (multi-timeframe)
🔴 $BTC $63,289 (−0.95%): Daily MACD main line death cross (DIF95<DEA101 histogram −12) turns bearish, broke below MA20(64,169), RSI14 46; 4H RSI 35, 1H RSI 32 deeply oversold, 1H Bollinger Band width only 1.09% ⚠️ extreme compression signals imminent breakout. Range 62,227–66,397 holding lower boundary.
🔴 #ETH $1,864 (−0.5%): weakest leg structurally, daily MACD bearish, hugging MA50/EMA50, 4H/1H RSI 33–36 oversold, range 1,820–1,982 on edge of turning bearish.
🟡 #SOL $75.1 (−0.9%): relatively most resilient, daily still above MA20(74.45), bullish alignment RSI 49; 1H RSI 32 short-term oversold.
🔬 Derivatives / Volume
🔴 24h liquidations = long bloodbath: BTC $55.4M (long $50.0M / short $5.4M ≈ 9:1), ETH $32.4M (long $26.5M), SOL $4.5M (long $4.2M) — this round's selloff = long squeeze.
🟡 Funding rates mildly positive (BTC +0.010% / ETH +0.007%, not extreme); BTC OI $46.4B, 24h only +0.16% (no deleveraging, shorts patching while fighting).
🟡 Spot discount −0.11% / −$71 (no buy orders in US session spot); Fear & Greed Index 29 (fear); BTC DVOL 35.98 (implied vol suppressed to low).
📈 US Stocks (intraday, ~1h before close)
🔴 Nasdaq weak QQQ 717.9 (−0.7%); AI capex leaders down ORCL −4.3% / GOOGL −3.0%
🟢 CRCL +7.4% stands out; TSLA +0.7%, META +1.3%
🟡 Storage mixed: SNDK +1.8% / SKHYNIX +2.2% / MU −2.2%; INTC −1.6%
₿ BTC Core Judgment
Daily death cross appears, multi-timeframe bearish alignment, but price still trapped in range (62.2–66.4K), no breakout; 4H/1H RSI deeply oversold + longs just bloodied $50M. Meaning = "weak but oversold." Without trend confirmation, shorting = fueling a short squeeze, longing = naked run before CPI binary event.
🎯 Key levels: break above 65.8–66.9K turns bullish, break below 62–63K opens next leg down; between them = noise.
⚖️ Comprehensive Judgment
Crypto's "risk appetite" and "safe haven" dual failure continues: gold hits two-month high, oil inflation premium reignites, BTC falls with stocks instead of rising — market prices Middle East/oil as "rate hike" not "safe haven." Before Wednesday's CPI, all directions are binary bets: hotter suppresses risk assets, cooler sparks rebound. Current best = low exposure awaiting data, don't heavy bet direction near 65K magnet + event.
🎯 Today's Trading View (for reference only, not personal positions)
• BTC: no chasing in mid-range (63–64K); break and hold above 65.8K = light long test, stop loss 64.8K; close below 62K = turn short, stop loss 63.2K. ATR daily ~$1,254, stop loss not tighter than this.
• ETH: weakest leg, rebound 1,900–1,940 resistance can light short, stop loss 1,965; break below 1,820 accelerates down.
• General discipline: control position before CPI = preferred; deeply oversold don't blindly short (fuel for squeeze), no confirmation don't blindly long, wait for fake breakout to be confirmed.
⚠️ Risk Events
📅 Wednesday: US July CPI (most important) + EIA crude inventory + OPEC/IEA monthly report + Tencent Q2 earnings
📅 Thursday: US July PPI + initial jobless claims + JD.com earnings
⚠️ Not investment advice, DYORGold has become a hot topic above $4,400, while BTC is around $63,821 and ETH is still consolidating at low levels. The fact that these two scarce assets have not strengthened simultaneously indicates that safe-haven funds are currently more oriented toward traditional assets, and crypto is still trading as risk assets for now. I will verify three points: whether BTC can reclaim 64,000; whether ETH can hold above 1,875 and stop falling; As gold continues to rise, will BTC spot trading volume increase in tandem? If the divergence between strong gold and weak crypto markets continues, the risk-averse narrative has not yet been transmitted; Only if three improvements are made can capital be repriced. Do you think BTC will take over from gold, or continue to fluctuate independently? $BTC $ETH #美股全线走高，加密股领涨
A rather controversial question: putting stocks with opening hours into perpetual contracts that run all day — does this improve efficiency, or does it also package the time gap risk?
When the underlying stock market is closed, news doesn't stop, but the spot price temporarily won't update. At this time, derivatives might fluctuate based on expectations first, then realign when the spot market opens. It looks like the same asset, but actually bears a different set of liquidity and pricing mechanisms.
This doesn't mean the product necessarily has issues, but the "familiar company name" can easily make people underestimate the unfamiliar contract structure. 表面上看，资金似乎变得谨慎了。 但更准确的说法是：资金并没有消失，而是在等待宏观不确定性进一步落地。 尤其值得关注的是，近期美国现货加密 ETF 重新出现明显资金需求。BTC 与 ETH ETF 最近一周合计吸引约 11亿美元资金，说明部分机构资金并没有因为短期震荡而离场。 这也是我现在不愿意过度看空市场的原因。 如果今晚的 CPI 低于预期，通胀压力继续缓解，同时美联储释放更加宽松的政策信号，那么风险资产可能迅速迎来一轮资金重新定价。 届时，我会重点关注这几个方向： ₿ $BTC 依然是整个加密市场的核心风向标。一旦宏观环境改善，BTC 往往会首先获得流动性支持。 ♦️ $ETH ETF 资金需求和以太坊生态持续发展，使 ETH 仍然具备较强的机构配置逻辑。 ⚡ $SOL 如果市场重新进入 Risk-On 模式，SOL 这类高 Beta 资产通常更容易获得新增风险资金。 🟡 $BNB 背靠成熟生态和持续的链上使用场景，基本面仍然值得关注。 🔵 $OKB 随着 OKX 生态扩张、链上活动增加，以及代币效用和通缩预期持续提升，OKB 仍然是我关注的交易所平台币之一。 但这里有一个很容入场：64200–64700分批做箜 止损：65200上方 目标：63000–62000 BTC在62000–66000区间已震荡数周，64800–65000为第一阻力位，上方抛压沉重，当前价格距此仍有空间。Coinbase比特币负溢价已持续82天刷新历史最长纪录，机构需求不足以消化零售端卖压，反弹根基不牢。今晚CPI数据公布，是9月FOMC前最后一个核心宏观指标，数据前市场趋于谨慎，承压空。$BTC #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ 📊 $NEAR Contract Liquidation Express (August 12)
According to liquidation data, NEAR shows a pattern of short-term shorts crushing longs, while mid-to-long-term longs face sharply increasing liquidations:
· Short-term (1H/4H): 1-hour short liquidations at $34,600, longs only $313, shorts crushing longs by 110 times, a nuclear-level short squeeze intensity; 4-hour shorts at $88,800, longs $384, shorts crushing longs by 231 times, short-term shorts completely targeted and destroyed, extreme short squeeze market.
· Mid-to-long term (12H/24H): 12-hour long liquidations at $1,329,300, shorts $144,100, longs 9.2 times shorts; 24-hour longs $1,409,900, shorts $153,500, longs 9.2 times shorts. Mid-to-long term long liquidations exponentially expand, direction completely reversed, concentrated long liquidation.
· Total liquidations exceed $1,563,400**, with long liquidations at $1,409,900, accounting for over 90%, a bloodbath for longs, unstoppable long liquidation momentum**.
⚠️ Risk Warning: NEAR short-term short squeeze intensity is extremely high (1H and 4H shorts crushing longs over 100 times), but mid-to-long term direction reverses with shorts absolutely controlling the market, showing clear dual liquidation characteristics. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x, avoid chasing rallies or panic selling, strictly control positions and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 12
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is moving from "storytelling" to "answering the test" — the capital feast of AI infrastructure enters its first round of return validation.
🏗️ Cloud Providers' Earnings Report: AI Investment Enters Return Validation Period
In Q2 earnings season, the four major cloud providers delivered the first "report card" on AI investment. Amazon AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, the fastest growth in 18 quarters; Microsoft Azure grew 43% YoY, with annual Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time; Google Cloud revenue hit $24.8 billion, soaring 82% YoY. Combined cloud business revenue of the three reached about $116.2 billion, up approximately 43% YoY.
More importantly, order backlogs. AWS backlog reached $496 billion, triple-digit YoY growth; Google Cloud backlog $514 billion; Microsoft commercial RPO up 84% YoY to $678 billion — future revenue visibility is improving.
But the cost is also real. Amazon's free cash flow turned from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion over the past 12 months; Google’s free cash flow is under short-term pressure. The four companies' quarterly capital expenditures have soared to $151.4 billion.
The market votes with its feet: rewarding companies that can convert computing power into real cloud revenue, punishing narratives with investment but no returns.
📊 CPI Released Tonight: The Scale for September Rate Hike Hangs in the Balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on August 12, the US July CPI will be released. Market expectations are for overall CPI YoY to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Before data release, CME data shows a 51.2% probability of a September rate hike.
Deutsche Bank expects CPI MoM at 0.15%, core CPI MoM at 0.26%. Cleveland Fed forecasts July overall CPI MoM up 0.09%, core CPI MoM up 0.21%. If tonight’s data beats expectations, the hawkish camp will quickly expand; if moderate, rate hike expectations may further fade.
💰 Nvidia $500 Billion vs Intel $20 Billion: Diverging Paths
On August 10, two chip giants announced financing plans simultaneously.
Nvidia, together with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, KKR and six other institutions, set up an independent computing power financing platform aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital. Jensen Huang stated: "Computing power has now become infrastructure like electricity and the internet." Essentially turning GPUs from consumables into financeable infrastructure assets. After the announcement, Nvidia’s stock closed down 2.86%.
Intel announced a $20 billion common stock issuance, the largest single equity financing since its 1971 IPO. The stock closed down 4.06% on the announcement day. Both paths point to the same conclusion: AI chip competition has escalated from a technology race to a capital race.
💎 Summary
Cloud providers prove AI demand is real with 43% revenue growth, but $151.4 billion quarterly capital expenditure reminds the market that the burn rate has never slowed; every basis point of tonight’s CPI may decide which way the September rate hike scale tips; and Nvidia and Intel’s $500 billion and $20 billion financing plans announced on the same day mark the official start of AI competition entering a "capital-intensive" new phase. When industry logic, macro narratives, and capital strategies converge on the same day, the market is moving from "storytelling" to "answering the test." #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 【Blockchain Asset Morning Report｜August 12】
BTC $64,900｜ETH $1,915
🔥 Market Today
BTC has returned to around $65,000.
But I'm actually less optimistic now.
A few days ago, ETF funds flowed back in, yet BTC couldn't continue to rise, indicating that the selling pressure at this level is greater than expected.
So, in the short term, I'm slightly bearish.
It's not that the bull market is over, but if BTC can't hold above $65,000 for long, the probability of looking for support lower is increasing.
ETH is actually worth watching more.
If BTC keeps consolidating, the first stop for capital rotation is very likely ETH.
As for altcoins?
The top 50 by market cap still haven't shown clear profit opportunities.
Buying altcoins now feels more like betting on rotation rather than riding a trend.
⸻
📰 News to Watch Today
① The SEC will discuss new crypto regulatory rules today
This is one of the most important news items today.
The market focus is on token regulation and safe harbor rules.
If progress is made, the long-term impact could be significant.
② US inflation data released today
This is the real short-term major variable.
If inflation exceeds expectations,
BTC will likely face pressure first.
③ CLARITY Act delayed until September
The Senate missed the August window, so the bill is postponed.
Short-term bearish sentiment, but I think this is more a matter of timing, not a reversal in direction.
④ BTC ETF funds have had net inflows for five consecutive days
The recent round of funds is indeed returning, totaling about $850 million over five trading days.
The question is simple:
Money is coming in, so why isn't the price moving up?
This is the key point to ponder now.
⸻
🧠 My View
I'm not planning to bottom-fish today.
If BTC can't hold $65,000, I'm bearish; if ETH starts outperforming BTC, I'll start looking for opportunities.
Altcoins can wait.
If there really is a second leg in this rally,
I'd rather:
Hold BTC first, wait for ETH confirmation, then look for altcoins.
Don't do it the other way around.
DYORSometimes I wonder if some people are even normal?
$SPCX Some say it surged to 600 overnight and then dropped to 80 overnight
Really? Surged to 600 overnight? Total market cap 7.9 trillion
Equivalent to about 1.5 Nvidia, 1.75 Apple, 5 Meta, etc.
One company's market cap surpassing the top few globally
I don't know what they're thinking. How much profit does SPCX make now?
Can you guarantee every rocket launch will be successful and smooth?
Even with major positive news, it’s digested slowly. Who can pump it explosively all at once?
Some also say why no short at 200? Because they bought the spot
Honestly, some people have no brains yet play US stocks
How much money do you have in your pocket for daily expenses? Still can't stand others doing well
Truly the mindset and thinking are not what poor people should have
#SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 1 billion USD convertible bonds, creditors can demand early redemption this November, but the cash on hand is just over 400 million — this is the darkest bombshell I found in Trump's media Q2 financial report.
If they really push for debt repayment, the BTC they hold will probably have to be dumped.
This company bought in around 107,000 USD per BTC at the 2025 peak, holding 9,477 BTC at the end of Q2, with a fair value down to only 557 million USD. Including pledged and related assets, the total is about 1.2 billion. Q2 alone had a net loss of 238 million, ten times that of the same period last year, with over 190 million being unrealized losses on digital assets and securities holdings. The CEO said directly on the call: no more playing with crypto, returning to the core business.
Translation: bought high and got trapped, now admitting defeat.
But the sneaky part is, in July they quietly increased holdings to 14,139 BTC. Even more interesting is looking back over the year: last June and July they applied for three crypto ETFs, some pure BTC, some BTC plus ETH, clearly allocated, but quietly withdrew all in May this year. So after a year of fussing, the ETFs were withdrawn, leaving just a bunch of trapped BTC.
So what does returning to the core business mean? Selling millisecond-priority access to Trump's tweets, charging 60,000 to 100,000 USD monthly, already signed over 10 high-frequency trading firms. When the president tweets about tariffs or war, Wall Street gets the info first and positions accordingly; by the time retail traders see it, the market has already moved. Democrats threaten investigations if they win midterms, but the CEO says this is standard industry practice, no problem.
Accumulated loss in the first half was 644 million, Q2 revenue only 1.67 million, Truth API barely pulls in 12 million a year, the whole company’s quarterly effort is less than selling 10 VIP channels. They also hold a 6 billion acquisition story of fusion company TAE, saying it will be done by year-end.
The most striking contrast: the listed company lost 644 million in the first half, while the president alone earned 636 million from $TRUMP meme coin royalties. The company’s losses are shareholders’, but the coin issuance profits are his own.
You say it’s a media company, but it’s trading crypto; you say it’s a crypto company, but it says it’s quitting; you say it quit, but in July it added nearly 5,000 $BTC; you say it had a plan, but ETFs were withdrawn and BTC got trapped; you say it’s a data company, but it’s selling the father-in-law’s Twitter; looking back, the president’s own TRUMP coin earned as much as the company lost in half a year.
Crypto losses + president’s insider tweets + fusion narrative + personal coin to cut retail investors, a four-in-one combo. This script is really something, I dare not touch DJT stock.
#特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大，BTC持仓下降 Strategy selling coins, Trump's media losses, the core of the crypto market retreat is not price, but the change in the funding narrative
Strategy has started selling BTC, Trump's media lost $238 million in Q2, Grayscale withdrew part of its crypto ETF application
In the past, the market was driven by three types of stories
Institutions continuously buying $BTC, Trump bringing crypto policy expectations, altcoin ETFs attracting funds
But now funds are starting to recalculate whether these stories can actually generate long-term cash flow?
The biggest significance of Strategy selling coins is not how much was sold, but breaking the belief that institutions will always buy BTC
Trump's media issue is similar, the IP is strong, but the market is starting to question whether the influence can be converted into revenue
I think this round of adjustment is more like a valuation reset
In the future, BTC may still benefit from institutional allocation, but projects largely driven by narratives, financing, and expectations will face increasing pressure
The market is shifting from buying dreams to focusing on the ability to deliver
Not investment advice DYOR The Realized Cap metric calculates the total cost of holding across the network based on the price of each coin's last move. A $BTC of $550 billion means a large amount of tokens have been handed over above $60,000, and each turnover raises the average cost. New buyers are willing to pay higher prices to take over, indicating the market is pricing in ahead for future market trends. $ETH's realized market value is stuck at $280 billion, unable to move. ETFs are indeed buying, Treasury companies are stockpiling, but all these purchases have been absorbed by old positions breaking even and selling off. Money comes in, but the cost structure hasn't changed, which means institutions are giving liquidity to veteran players. The market also confirmed this split. $BTC currently around $63,600, with a market share of 56.7%, the pullback is due to macro factors suppressing the market, and rising US Treasury yields have triggered a collective contraction of risk assets. $ETH repeatedly bottomed around the $1880 range, with selling pressure visible above $1900, and every rebound triggered by "break even and exit" sell orders. $BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of $440 million over the past 30 days, with short-term outflows unaffected by the medium-term trend; although $ETH ETFs attracted funds for five consecutive weeks, they still failed to drive the cost curve upward, a detail worth pondering. On-chain data doesn't lie—one is replacing new people, the other is trapping veterans. $BTC selling pressure is being absorbed by real money; once the macro trend shifts, the momentum will most likely be on its side. $ETH before the 280 billion cost line turns upward, every surge should ask one more question: who is buying, who is selling. $BTC$BTC is still stuck at 63,600 this hour, but what really matters isn't the price, it's the volume — 24h trading volume has directly dropped by 51.9%, the whole market looks like blood-drained zombies.
The panic index is 27, stuck in Fear, but OI is only 109,300 and funding is just +0.0100% neutral — it's not bulls and bears fighting, both sides are collectively lying flat, no one wants to make the first move.
The breadth of 6 up and 9 down looks scary, but in the ETH ecosystem, BICO leading the decline at -8.76% is just a treasury sell-off case, not a systemic collapse.
Interestingly, on-chain token stocks are moving against the trend: ARK Innovation (XSKHY) +4.76%, 3x Semiconductor (XSOXL) +3.57% — traditional risk assets are rising, money is flowing from crypto to US stocks.
Framework: extremely low volume + extreme fear often marks a "neglected" bottom area, not the eve of a crash; but a reversal requires volume to pick up and break back above 64,000 to confirm, right now it's just a vacuum, not a signal.
Do you think this volume contraction is the calm before the storm, or is liquidity truly dried up? Comment your judgment (≥15 characters with reasons to enter the recommendation pool).
Crypto assets are high risk, this article does not constitute investment advice, purely personal opinion.
#OKXPlanet $BTC $ETH #LowVolumeMarket #OnChainDataAt the same time last night, both cloud and hardware ends—the AI supply chain—each submitted their own papers, with one answer being clean and the other retained. On CoreWeave's side, retail investors' pre-report reductions proved to be wrong judgments this time. Revenue was $2.58 billion, beating expectations and up 112% year-over-year; Adjusted loss per share was $1.03 to $1.14, far exceeding market expectations of a loss of $1.20 to $1.41. The report also revealed new business collaborations with Anthropic and Meta, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.5 billion, indicating that operating leverage is truly taking effect—$99.4 billion in orders on hand began to translate into revenue and positive EBITDA this quarter. The stock price surged 8% to 14% in after-hours trading, and if this increase is included, it rebounded nearly 65% from this year's low. The analysts' average target price was $147, with over 60% optimism being directly confirmed by the earnings data. Super Micro is a bit more complicated. Revenue of $11.1 billion was slightly below expectations, but the company had already forecasted in July that it would fall below the guidance threshold, so the market was already mentally prepared. The real highlight was the gross margin of 17.5%, a sharp jump from 9.9% in the previous quarter, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.62, nearly 70% above the target. Even more impressive is the guidance—FY2027 full-year revenue is expected to reach $65 to $72 billion, far exceeding market expectations of $52.5 billion. The stock price rose about 8.5% after the earnings report. But SMCI itself hides one in its guidance$BTC couldn't hold $65,000 for a fourth straight day.$ETH and $XRP led major token declines.
This isn't just about crypto sentiment. Broader market fear is rising from oil prices, higher bond yields, and upcoming US inflation data, pushing the crypto sentiment index to 27 (Fear).
Our read: the market awaits Wednesday's US price data. If inflation surprises high, expect the broader market to drag crypto down, regardless of token-specific news.
$XRP is at 1.02. Lose 0.992 and the weekly range breaks. 📊 $SOL Contract Liquidation Update (August 12)
According to liquidation data, SOL shows a pattern of rapid directional shifts in the short term and strong bullish dominance in the mid-to-long term, with cumulative liquidation volume second only to XRP:
· Short term (1H/4H): 1-hour long liquidations at $12,000, shorts at $2,594, longs are 4.63 times shorts, shorts slightly dominant; 4-hour long liquidations at $12,100 (roughly equal to 1-hour), shorts at $259,500, shorts crush longs by 21.4 times, a sharp reversal in the short term from slight short dominance to a forced short squeeze, with short sellers being selectively liquidated.
· Mid-to-long term (12H/24H): 12-hour long liquidations at $3,141,000, shorts at $1,500,900, longs are 2.09 times shorts; 24-hour long liquidations at $3,682,000, shorts at $1,589,700, longs are 2.32 times shorts. Mid-to-long term long liquidation scale continues to expand, but the ratio remains moderate, with no extreme imbalance between bulls and bears.
· Cumulative liquidations exceed $5,271,600**, with long liquidations at $3,682,000, accounting for nearly 70%, a bloodbath for longs, with a bear-killing-long trend dominating the mid-to-long term**.
⚠️ Risk Warning: SOL’s short-term direction rapidly shifts (1H longs slightly dominant → 4H shorts crush), with extremely high risk of both sides being liquidated; mid-to-long term shorts continue to control the market. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, avoid chasing rallies or panic selling, strictly control position size and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 12
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is moving from "storytelling" to "answering the test" — the capital feast of AI infrastructure is entering its first round of return validation.
🏗️ Cloud Providers’ Earnings Report: AI Investment Enters Return Validation Period
In Q2 earnings season, the four major cloud providers delivered the first "report card" on AI investment. Amazon AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters; Microsoft Azure grew 43% YoY, with annual Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time; Google Cloud revenue hit $24.8 billion, surging 82% YoY. Combined cloud business revenue of the three reached approximately $116.2 billion, up about 43% YoY.
More importantly, order backlogs. AWS backlog reached $496 billion, a triple-digit YoY increase; Google Cloud backlog at $514 billion; Microsoft commercial RPO rose 84% YoY to $678 billion — visibility into future revenue is improving.
But the cost is also real. Amazon’s free cash flow turned from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion over the past 12 months; Google’s free cash flow is under short-term pressure. The four companies’ quarterly capital expenditures have soared to $151.4 billion.
The market is voting with its feet: rewarding companies that can convert computing power into real cloud revenue, punishing narratives with investment but no returns.
📊 CPI Released Tonight: The Scale for September Rate Hike Hangs in the Balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on August 12, the US July CPI will be released. Market expectations are for overall CPI YoY to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Before the data release, CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike remains at 51.2%.
Deutsche Bank expects CPI MoM at 0.15%, core CPI MoM at 0.26%. The Cleveland Fed forecasts July overall CPI MoM to rise slightly by 0.09%, core CPI MoM by 0.21%. If tonight’s data exceeds expectations, the hawkish camp will quickly expand; if moderate, rate hike expectations may further fade.
💰 Nvidia $500 Billion vs Intel $20 Billion: Diverging Paths
On August 10, two chip giants announced financing plans simultaneously.
Nvidia partnered with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, KKR, and six other institutions to establish an independent computing power financing platform, aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital. Jensen Huang stated: "Computing power has now become infrastructure like electricity and the internet." Essentially, this transforms GPUs from consumables into financeable infrastructure assets. After the announcement, Nvidia’s stock closed down 2.86%.
Intel announced a $20 billion common stock issuance, the largest single equity financing since its 1971 IPO. Its stock closed down 4.06% on the announcement day. Both paths point to the same conclusion: the AI chip competition has evolved from a technology race to a capital race.
💎 Summary
Cloud providers prove AI demand is real with 43% revenue growth, but the $151.4 billion quarterly capital expenditure reminds the market that the burn rate has never slowed; every basis point of tonight’s CPI may decide which way the September rate hike scale tips; and Nvidia and Intel’s $500 billion and $20 billion financing plans announced on the same day declare that the AI race has officially entered a "capital-intensive" new phase. When industry logic, macro narratives, and capital strategies converge on the same day, the market is moving from "storytelling" to "answering the test." #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 Yesterday, I saw some fans asking why everyone is waiting for the CPI and how much it needs to exceed expectations. Let me explain in detail:
CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, which measures how much the prices of everyday items (rent, food, gasoline, medical care, taxi rides) have increased. Simply put, it is similar to the inflation rate.
Tonight at 20:30, this month's data will be released, which will basically determine whether there will be an interest rate hike in September. The current market expectation is "overall CPI up 3.4% year-over-year, core CPI (excluding volatile energy and food prices) up 2.5% year-over-year." If it exceeds this, it means inflation is severe and an interest rate hike is possible, so $BTC will fall; if it is lower, it means inflation is under control, so there will be no rate hike and possibly even a rate cut, and $BTC will rise.
But I think the probability of a rate cut is very low. Because the Federal Reserve's target is to control inflation at 2%, but the market expectation is 2.5%, indicating inflation is still relatively high.
There is another risk: UBS data shows that short positions on U.S. Treasury bonds have reached a historic high. If the CPI is lower than expected, a bond market rebound may force these short sellers to cover their positions en masse, causing a chain reaction and extreme market volatility.
#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
The real highlight of Super Micro Computer's earnings report isn't the revenue, but just how insane the demand for AI servers is.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) just released its FY2026 Q4 earnings, which can be summed up in one sentence:
Revenue slightly below expectations, but profit, gross margin, and future guidance are all very strong.
This quarter's revenue was $11.12 billion, nearly double year-over-year, but slightly below the market expectation of about $11.6 billion; adjusted EPS was $1.70, significantly above the market expectation of about $0.92. More importantly, the gross margin reached about 17.5%~17.6%, clearly better than the company's previously provided range.
① Why did the stock rise after hours?
Because the market didn't really care about the slight revenue miss.
What truly excited investors was the guidance for next quarter and FY2027.
The company expects next quarter revenue of $14.5~15.5 billion, while the market originally expected only about $11.8 billion; FY2027 full-year revenue guidance is $65~72 billion, far exceeding Wall Street's previous estimate of about $53 billion.
So the market's trading logic is simple:
Earning a little less this quarter doesn't matter; what matters is that future orders are still booming.
After the earnings release, SMCI's stock rose about 7%~9% in after-hours trading.
② Has AI demand cooled down?
From Super Micro's earnings, at least not yet.
The company disclosed new orders exceeding $60 billion and entered FY2027 with a record backlog; meanwhile, the number of customers with annual revenue over $100 million increased from 4 last year to 9.
This shows that AI capital expenditure is not just focused on Nvidia GPUs.
Capital is continuing to flow through:
GPU → AI servers → liquid cooling → data centers → networking → storage
The entire infrastructure chain is expanding.
Super Micro is right in the AI server segment.
③ What caught my attention most is the gross margin
One of the biggest market concerns about SMCI was:
Revenue is growing fast, but to win AI server orders, profit margins are getting thinner.
This quarter, the gross margin directly hit about 17.5%, well above the company's previous expectations. The company explained this mainly comes from a better customer mix and product portfolio.
This means if they can maintain both:
High revenue growth + stable gross margin
The market's valuation logic for them will change.
They won't just be a "low-margin hardware maker assembling servers for Nvidia."
④ But risks are also clear
SMCI's biggest risk now comes from rising expectations.
The company has raised its FY2027 revenue target to as high as $72 billion; any order delays, GPU delivery issues, or margin declines in upcoming quarters could cause significant expectation gaps. The slight revenue miss this quarter was partly due to delays in some customer infrastructure projects.
So SMCI now resembles SanDisk before:
Good is no longer enough; it must be consistently very good.
My understanding of this earnings report is:
This is not just a positive report for SMCI, but further validation that AI infrastructure CapEx has not cooled down significantly yet.
If subsequent earnings from optical modules, networking, semiconductor equipment, and data center companies continue to give similar signals, then this AI cycle is probably far from just "storytelling."
In summary:
Nvidia sells GPUs; Super Micro sells the shovels that truly put GPUs into data centers.
This earnings report tells the market: the buyers of shovels are still placing more orders $SMCI Space Stocks Diverge: RKLB and ASTS Reports Released Then Plunge, SPCX Rises
$RKLB and $ASTS both dropped after their earnings reports came out, but $SPCX not only avoided being dragged down, it actually rose 4.2%, reclaiming its IPO price of 135.
The reason is straightforward.
RKLB: Expectations Were Too High
Rocket Lab's Q2 revenue was $234 million, up 62% year-over-year, a record high, with an order backlog reaching $2.36 billion.
Looking purely at fundamentals, this earnings report is quite good.
But the market is really worried about two things: one, losses still exceeding expectations; and more importantly—the timing of Neutron's realization.
The high valuation for RKLB is largely based on the expectation that Neutron will succeed and enter the larger launch market.
So for RKLB, hitting record revenue is no longer enough.
The market is starting to ask, when will Neutron actually fly? When will profit margins improve? When will it truly make money at scale?
This is a classic case of a good earnings report that isn’t good enough to support a higher valuation.
ASTS: Commercialization Hasn't Caught Up to Valuation
ASTS's Q2 revenue was about $31.5 million, below market expectations; EPS loss was 0.77, also clearly worse than expected.
Of course, you can't just look at the loss number.
ASTS now has 13 satellites in orbit, contract backlog close to $1.3 billion, and over 60 partner operators.
So the problem is that the satellites are up, but formal monetization hasn't started yet.
This is a hurdle all high-valuation growth stocks eventually face.
Moving from talking about the future to delivering results.
Why SPCX Didn't Drop Alongside
First, there is a timing difference.
SPCX's rise during yesterday's regular trading session actually happened before RKLB and ASTS released their after-hours earnings.
In other words, even after those two dropped post-market, SPCX did not experience a significant sector-wide crash.
Because SPCX is trading on a completely different logic now: the negative news has been fully priced in.
Previously, the market feared that after the first batch of over 900 million shares became eligible for sale, early investors would rush to cash out.
But after the actual unlock, there was no sustained sell-off as feared.
So the logic reversed:
Unlock expectation
→ Preemptive sell-off
→ Actual unlock
→ Selling pressure less than worst-case expectations
→ Negative news fully priced in
→ Stock price returns above 135
Reuters coverage of this phase also shows the market was very sensitive to potential selling pressure post-unlock, but the actual price action is digesting that risk.
There is a deeper reason: SPCX cannot simply be understood as a rocket stock.
SpaceX’s latest 10-Q clearly divides the business into:
Space, Connectivity, AI.
Q2 total revenue was $7.814 billion, up 91.9% year-over-year.
Specifically: Space business revenue was about $962 million; Connectivity, mainly Starlink, was $4.291 billion; AI business revenue reached $2.561 billion.
So SPCX now essentially combines three stories: rockets + Starlink + AI.
RKLB’s Neutron delay risk does not equal fundamental problems at SpaceX.
ASTS’s slower commercialization does not equal slower Starlink commercialization.
In fact, in a way, the issues exposed by RKLB and ASTS earnings highlight SPCX’s biggest advantage:
Others are still proving their story; SpaceX already has large-scale revenue.
The space sector is beginning to stratify.
Previously, the market traded on: SpaceX IPO → space industry revaluation → everyone rising together.
Going forward, the market will trade on who can truly turn their story into revenue and cash flow.
ASTS is still validating commercialization.
RKLB is still validating Neutron.
SPCX has already entered another stage, with mature businesses providing revenue, and Starship plus AI offering new valuation potential.
That’s why last night’s declines in RKLB and ASTS did not simply transmit to SPCX.
Of course, this does not mean SPCX’s long-term valuation risk has disappeared.
On the contrary.
Short-term negative news fully priced in, and long-term valuation still expensive—both can be true simultaneously.
What’s worth watching are the 135 and 150 price levels.
But none of this changes the fact that $SPCX will eventually reach double digits first Funds are pouring in wildly but the coin price remains stagnant! BTC longs and shorts are completely split, with two key variables hidden in the market
Recently, many crypto traders must be very confused, completely unable to understand the current market trend.
Clearly, Wall Street institutions are pouring real money in aggressively, spot ETF funds are continuously flowing back in large amounts, and the data looks very promising. Logically, BTC should have already rallied and broken through. But the reality is, the coin price is stuck stubbornly around 64,000, oscillating sideways, neither rising nor falling, which is extremely frustrating.
Today, I will thoroughly explain the underlying logic, the truth behind the capital game, and the current state of contract harvesting. Once you understand, you'll realize this is not simply a bullish or bearish market, but an extreme split between longs and shorts.
First, let's talk about the institutional bullish factors everyone can see; the data is absolutely real and reliable. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of as much as $853.5 million in a single week, marking the best inflow since mid-April.
This large buying wave was almost entirely led by BlackRock, whose IBIT product accounted for the vast majority of incremental funds. Moreover, BlackRock has been continuously relaxing entry conditions, lowering the IBIT minimum conversion threshold by 96%, so now only $1 million is needed to participate.
The intention behind this move is very clear: to continuously open channels and attract more small and medium institutions for long-term positioning. What is certain is that Wall Street's willingness to allocate long-term funds has never weakened.
But why does the coin price not rise despite institutions buying aggressively? The core issue is the massive on-chain selling pressure, which completely offsets the institutional buying power.
On-chain monitoring data clearly shows that there are currently two waves of super heavy selling pressure continuously unloading. The first wave is from top whales, who have been selling nonstop for the past three weeks, cumulatively offloading 7,513 BTC; the second wave is from miner whales, who have been continuously transferring coins to Binance exchange for cashing out over the past 20 days, cumulatively transferring in 6,494 BTC.
On one side, ETF institutions are continuously increasing positions by billions, while on the other side, whales and miners are dumping in bulk and exiting. The strength of long and short funds completely cancels out, which is the fundamental reason for BTC's long-term sideways movement and inability to rise.
Even more brutal is that the market is not only stuck between rising and falling; the contract market is also continuously killing both longs and shorts, with harvesting intensity maxed out.
Within just 24 hours, the total liquidation data across the network is shocking. BTC's total network liquidation reached $44.4251 million, with long liquidations at $38.4452 million and shorts only $5.9799 million. The vast majority of high-level bottom-fishing retail investors were precisely harvested; ETH is equally brutal, with a 24-hour total liquidation of $32.7423 million, and long liquidations at $22.8875 million.
The combined single-day liquidation of the two major mainstream coins exceeded $77 million. In this narrow-range oscillating market, whether you go long or short, as long as you dare to use leverage, you are very likely to be cleaned out by the main players.
Moreover, the attitude of institutional funds has recently shown obvious divergence, no longer unanimously bullish.
Last week, the overall market warmed up, with BTC and ETH spot ETFs net inflows totaling $1.1 billion, seemingly very positive. But on August 10, the market sentiment suddenly reversed, with Bitcoin spot ETF turning to a net outflow of $91 million in a single day, while only Ethereum ETF maintained a slight net inflow of $5.3 million.
This indicates that institutions have begun to diverge internally, no longer uniformly optimistic about BTC in the short term. Funds have quietly started rotating their layouts, and potential risks in the market have quietly accumulated.
Currently, the entire crypto community's core focus is concentrated on two key variables, which will directly determine the subsequent market direction.
First, whether the continuous institutional buying from ETFs can withstand the ongoing selling pressure from whales and miners to break the current supply-demand balance; second, the CPI data to be released this week, which will directly rewrite macro risk appetite and decide whether global funds continue to stay in the crypto market.
Finally, some practical advice for all ordinary traders.
Do not blindly go all-in bullish just because you see ETF funds flowing in. This is a typical game of institutional long-term positioning versus short-term dumping by large holders in a volatile market, with no unilateral trend.
Short-term contract players must strictly control leverage; the $77 million single-day liquidation data is the most real proof of the current volatile harvesting; spot players should also avoid frequent operations and patiently observe.
Whether long-term or short-term, do not bet on direction at this stage. Wait for the CPI data to land, on-chain selling pressure to ease, and the market to decisively choose a direction before positioning accordingly. That is the safest trading approach.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在