Orbit Post Sitemap
Bitcoin addresses worth hundreds of billions of dollars on-chain that have remained untouched for a long time have recently encountered a series of troubles. A lawsuit in New York alone targeted nearly 3.8 million BTC, accounting for 18% of the total supply, with a market value exceeding $290 billion. This batch of unclaimed assets is simultaneously facing legal ownership disputes and technical risks of quantum attacks, while clear legislation is quietly rewriting the rules of the game. The first to stir up trouble was the lost property lawsuit in New York State. The plaintiffs, under pseudonyms, jointly claimed ownership of 39,069 dormant Bitcoin addresses, including 22,000 early mining addresses widely believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, totaling about 1.1 million BTC. $BTC The plaintiff, following New York State's personal property law rules for finding lost property, handed over lost property to the police, and if unclaimed for one year, ownership was obtained. They submitted the USB drive containing the address list to the New York Police Department and then posted the claim window via on-chain OP_RETURN messages, claiming they had fulfilled their notification obligation. To speed up the confirmation process, the plaintiffs even claimed that each wallet lacked access to private keys, with a single address valued at less than $10, a stark contrast to the actual market value of hundreds of billions of dollars. The core logic of this lawsuit is to equate the long-term untransferred funds directly with abandonment of the property. And the clear bill currently being advanced in Congress happens to specifically fill this legal loophole. Article 20216 of the draft clearly stipulates that self-custody digital assets cannot be recognized solely because the owner has not transferred the assets or has not shown a sustained willingness to hold themLast week, the Nasdaq fell 2.1% for the week, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.25% in a single week. The market's core anxiety is no longer about a decline in AI demand, but whether revenue and free cash flow can be realized amid massive capital expenditures and rising financing costs. This week, combined with the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, U.S. Q2 GDP, and June PCE inflation data, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, SK Hynix, storage devices, and leading packaging and testing companies will release earnings reports, marking a critical test for the technology and storage sectors. 1. Key timeline - After market close on 7.27: APLD, AMKR (the first AI advanced packaging earnings report this week) - After market close on 7.28: STX, KLAC, TER; evening SK Hynix earnings conference - 7.29: Federal Reserve interest rate decision; after market close Microsoft, Meta, LRCX, Qualcomm, HOOD, FORM; next day Samsung earnings briefing - Before market open on 7.30: GDP, PCE data; after market close Amazon, Apple - Before market open on 7.31: ExxonMobil earnings 2. Key stock highlights + price ranges 1. Leading tech (overall market switch) - MSFT: Monitor Azure growth, Copilot commercialization, capital expenditure impact on profits; support at 378~382, resistance at 389~392, $400 as a trend recovery signal - META: Advertising revenue, AI conversion efficiency, full-year spending plan; support at 590~595, resistance at 610~615 - AMZN: AWS outlookPUMP rose 11.5% in 24 hours. If you only focus on this bullish candle, it's easy to think a new rally is about to begin. But what really made me stop and look at was another set of numbers: in the past 7 days, prices barely moved, but in 30 days, they have already risen by 50%. In other words, this 11.5% only pushed the July sideways range up a bit, still 77% short of the ATH. After the 156M volume on July 21 (the highest in a month), trading volume kept falling and dropped to just 80M yesterday. On the surface, it's bullish, but in reality, funds are hesitating—whether fewer people are buying at the high, or if they're just buying after a shakeout and waiting for the next wave, it's hard to say now.
What I care about more is that $PUMP as the platform's token, its price narrative heavily depends on the platform's meme launch activity. A 50% increase in 30 days likely corresponds to a new strategy or airdrop expectation, but 7 days of stagnation means this expectation has mostly been priced in, and the next catalyst has yet to appear. If trading volume continues to shrink, or platform data (such as new coin count and active users) flattens or even declines, then this 50% increase will actually become a catalyst for pullbacks.
$PUMP #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
The earnings reports of Google and Tesla have just been released, and my judgment is clear: Google is a cash cow with "stability amid concerns," while Tesla is a high-risk game of "licking the edge of the knife."
Let's look at Google first: revenue exceeded expectations, but the slowdown in cloud business growth is a hidden concern. Advertising revenue remains strong, but capital expenditures from AI investments have surged, eroding profit margins, and the market fears it will become the next "money-burning machine."
Specifically, Google Cloud's revenue growth fell from 28% last quarter to 26%, falling short of expectations; Capital expenditure increased by more than 30% year-on-year, mainly for AI data center construction. This indicates that growth engines are gearing up, and short-term pains are inevitable.
My trading strategy is: hold Google as a base position long-term, but don't chase the price in the short term. Wait until cloud business growth accelerates again or capital expenditure peaks before adding more.
Looking at Tesla, on the surface, both deliveries and profits have declined, but the real variable is the progress of FSD (Full Self-Driving). Musk repeatedly emphasized during the call that FSD is about to be implemented in China, which is the core story supporting valuations.
In terms of data, the auto gross margin fell to 17.1%, the lowest in three years; However, the number of FSD subscribers grew 40% quarter-on-quarter, and regulatory approvals in China have entered the final stages. This means that if FSD can be monetized at scale, the current stock price is actually seriously undervalued.
My trading strategy is: use no more than 5% of the total position for an "option-style" layout—buying the underlying stock + selling call options, which both preserves upside and reduces holding costs. If the news of FSD China implementation is confirmed, consider adding to your position.
Finally, one more thing: don't let 'exceeding expectations' or 'falling short of expectations' lead the way. Financial reports are just the beginning—real opportunities are hidden in details management hasn't fully disclosed.$BONK Governance loopholes diverted $20 million in treasury funds, breaking the logic of valuations supported by treasury reserves, plunging the market into a fierce pricing battle between liquidation and governance reshaping.
$BONK price retraced 50% from recent highs, with $20 million of Treasury funds transferred to personal addresses through a strategic fund allocation proposal, triggering panic selling among retail investors and some major players repositioning. The incident simultaneously tightened the risk appetite of $PEPE and $WIF, which also hold tens of millions of dollars in Treasuries.
The driving factors are ranked by priority: anticipation of selling pressure caused by secondary flows of treasury tokens, governance trust collapse triggered by token weight voting mechanisms, and token rotation efficiency at halved levels.
From the perspective of event risk transmission, the exit of $20 million is equivalent to adding a similar amount of potential selling pressure inflation to the market, instantly dampening the overall risk appetite in the meme sector. Retail panic selling has prompted rapid liquidation of short-term positions, while whale holders' accumulation has formed localized buying support below.
Upside scenario condition: If the project team or core community intervenes and advances the emergency governance framework repair, it will reverse expectations of governance loss of control. It is necessary to observe whether the $20 million transferred out funds are suspended and whether the high-level chip turnover rate drops below 5%. Once the emergency risk control proposal passes, the price may experience a phased oversold rebound, and this scenario will be confirmed to hold when the decline golden ratio is broken.
Downside scenario scenario: If transferred funds start to be cashed on-chain, or if a wave of community selling triggers further chain liquidations, the market will break the current range. It is necessary to observe the movements of on-chain transfer addresses and changes in position concentration. If the transfer address transfers large amounts to the trading terminal, the price will face a second bottoming down.
Determining the failure condition: If the market ignores governance deficiencies and directly pulls back from the previous high before the halving without an emergency repair plan, it indicates that the driving force has shifted from governance fundamentals to game capital, and current simulations based on risk control deficiencies have failed.
Over the next 7 days, focus on on-chain changes in the $20 million transfer address, as well as the distribution of voting chips for emergency governance proposals.
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answers from Google and Tesla this time? #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard(Based on OKX Orbit hot topic #财报观察员 earningsrealitycheck-164, 2026/07/27 Retrieved: 5.269 million views, 1,579 posts; data has been updated compared to previous version) 1. Extracting Core Facts: What Really Happened to Tech Stocks This Week? In short: The market no longer pays for "burning money for growth." Google and Tesla both reported Q2 revenues that beat expectations, but free cash flow turned negative simultaneously. After hours, one fell 4%~7%, the other 5%~14%. Tesla fell nearly 20% for the week, closing at $313.03, marking the largest weekly drop since 2022. ● Tesla: Revenue of $28.2 billion (+26%), delivery record high, but profits plunged 57%, gross margin 16.8%, free cash flow -$1.09 billion (first negative in two years), capital expenditure $5.789 billion (+142%), Musk all-in on Optimus/Robotaxi. ● Google Alphabet: Revenue $119.8 billion (+24%), Cloud $24.8 billion (+82%), but free cash flow turned negative for the first time since listing and dropped by -$5.9 billion; Capital expenditure was 44.9 billion yuan (doubling year-on-year), with full-year guidance raised to 195–205 billion, bonds issued for 20.3 billion yuan, and stock issuance for 49.6 billion yuan. ● SpaceX closed at $115.07, marking last month's IPO📊 $WLD Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $9,273.15
· 4 hours: $61,600
· 12 hours: $303,000
· 24 hours: $1,067,700
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $9,273.15 $0 100%
4h $45,000 $16,600 73.1%
12h $112,000 $191,000 37.0%
24h $851,100 $216,600 79.7%
Duokong interpretation
In the first 4 hours, long liquidations dominated (73.1%~100%), with prices continuing to fall; However, 12-hour short positions at $191,000 strongly overtook (accounting for 63.0%), triggering a fierce short squeeze; Within 24 hours, long positions were liquidated at $851,100, reversing again (79.7%), marking a second reversal in direction, with the long selling trend fully returning and escalating fiercely. Ultimate winner: Bears—showing a pattern of "decline→ squeeze short → stronger decline," with bulls and traders suffering devastating liquidation.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.87% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 5.77% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 28.38% of 24 hours
Liquidation distribution is extremely post-apocalyptic: the first 12 hours accounted for only 28.38%, while the total 24-hour volume is 3.52 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating that the long sell-off market surged sharply between 12 and 24 hours (about $764,700 in the last 12 hours, accounting for 71.6% of the whole day). Currently, the market is in a phase of sustained sharp declines dominated by bears, with bulls being systematically crushed. In the short term, attention should be paid to technical recovery signals after oversold conditions.
A one-sentence explanation
$WLD 24-hour long liquidation at $851,100, accounting for 79.7% of the total, with a sharp reversal in direction, with the bears ultimately prevailing, and the bullish trend intensified in the latter half.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress 布油一夜跌超5%，美股期货集体反弹，$ETH 更是涨到1944美元——中东局势暂时降温，市场终于敢喘口气了。 上周五美股依旧分化：道指涨0.5%，标普基本收平，纳指跌0.6%；全周纳指累计下跌2.1%。AI高投入、油价和4.69%的10年期美债收益率，仍在压制科技股估值。 今早风向突然反转。美伊恢复接触并暂停进一步攻击，布油从上周突破100美元回落至87美元附近；纳指100期货涨约1.2%，日经225开盘上涨0.4%。资金正在交易地缘风险降温，但谈判尚未落地，这波修复随时可能被新消息打断。 加密市场表现更强：$BTC 约65150美元，24小时上涨1.5%；$ETH 约1944美元，上涨4.2%，ETH/BTC升至0.02985。虽然上周五BTC、ETH现货ETF分别净流出2.40亿和7070万美元，但币价没有继续下杀，说明周末抛压被现货资金接住了。 今天先看ETH能否站稳1935美元并冲击2000美元，BTC则要突破65500美元才能打开空间。本周美联储会议和苹果、微软、$META 、亚马逊财报密集，油价退潮只是第一关，利率与AI资本开支才是后面的硬仗。 风险提示：地缘谈判仍有反复，$BTC BTC 🔥 **$65,170**, just broke below $65,000 this morning, rising **+1.5%** intraday, following macro sentiment
📊 To be honest, the technical side isn't looking good—a **death cross** has formed, and the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, which is a classic bearish signal. The Fear and Greed Index dropped to **28**, the lowest this month. However, an RSI of 62 is not considered overheated, and the MACD is compressed near the zero axis, a typical "equi-directional" state.
🛡️ Key level: $63,800 is the consensus lifeline among analysts—Ali Charts says holding here can push it to $67,000; if it breaks, go straight to $60,000. $62,000 is stronger support, and $68,000 is resistance above.
💸 On the ETF side—last week's net inflow was only **$33.8 million**, the weakest week since the correction. In the first three days, I made $499 million, and on Thursday and Friday, I ran **$465 million**, almost giving up the whole week's food. BlackRock's IBIT had a weekly net outflow of **$95.5 million**. By 2026, cumulative BTC ETF net outflows will be **$5.23 billion**. Meanwhile, ETH ETFs have outperformed BTC for two consecutive weeks, with ETH ETFs entering $338 million versus BTC $234 million in July. Institutions are quietly switching positions, not a broadly bullish outlook. [Source: Cryptopolitan] (https://www.cryptopolitan.com/bitcoin-etf-volume-lowest-since-2024/)
🌍 On the macro side—**Tomorrow is the Federal Reserve meeting on 7/28-29**, which is the biggest variable this week. Oil prices plunged 6.3% in two days, Trump halted airstrikes on Iran, and the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire is 75%. Meanwhile, gold surged to $4,100/oz, and U.S. Treasury yields are falling. All risk assets are priced in as "war cools down + the Fed may lean dovish."
⚠️ But don't be too optimistic—the war is paused, not over; the Strait of Hormuz is not yet open, and the Houthis are still fighting. Moreover, the sharp drop in oil prices itself shows that the market is pricing in recession expectations, not just pure good news.
🎯 Summary: BTC is currently in the $63,800-$68,000 range, with no direction. Tomorrow's FOMC will be the catalyst—dovish signals can push the price above $68,000 to $72,000; the hawkish side will break through $63,800 and target $60,000. ETF data shows institutions currently have no faith; ETH is more favored than BTC. Don't chase in the short term; wait for FOMC to give guidance. $62,000-63,800 is the bottom-fishing zone, and follow after a volume breakout at $68,000.According to 3 trillion, Changxin is indeed not expensive, with a PE of only 25 and a circulating market value of 200 billion.
If you compare it with tech stocks in the A-share market, most of them are more expensive than this.
Moreover, the unlocking period for this is super long, so it has a low circulating market value for a long time.
However, the opening chips of this are too scattered, with too many retail investors winning new shares. Scattered chips create a demand for short-term shakeouts.
Compared to SpaceX, it's not expensive. The trading volume of US stocks is about 2.5-3 times that of A-shares, and A-shares have more retail investors with more emotional volatility. SpaceX has already been driven up.
But SpaceX's opening chips are largely institutional.
Comparing with SMIC, with an opening circulating market value of 100 billion and a PE over 100, it's also not expensive. SMIC had a small rise a few days after opening, then kept falling.📊 $OKB Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $99.91
· 4 hours: $2,872.17
· 12 hours: $2,872.17
· 24 hours: $3,030.23
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $0 $99.91 0%
4h $2,772.26 $99.91 96.5%
12h $2,772.26 $99.91 96.5%
24h $2,772.26 $257.97 91.5%
Duokong interpretation
Short liquidations at $99.91 in 1 hour, zero long positions, but the scale is very small and negligible; From 4 hours onward, long liquidations suddenly crush short positions (accounting for 96.5%), sharply reversing direction and turning into continuous one-sided decline; 12-hour and 24-hour long positions still account for 91.5%~96.5%, with almost no resistance on the bears. Ultimate winner: Bears—The price shows a continuous downward trend, with the bulls clearing consecutive stop-losses.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 3.3% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 94.8% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 94.8% of 24 hours
Forced liquidations are extremely concentrated in the 4-12 hour cycle (about 95% total), indicating that the main downward wave has exploded and basically completed within 4 hours; Total volume over 24 hours and 12 hours increased by only $158.06, with very limited increments in the subsequent 12 hours. Currently, the decline is at the end of a bear-led sustained decline, with bullish forces basically cleared out. In the short term, we need to wait for signals of shrinking volume.
A one-sentence explanation
$OKB 24-hour long liquidation at $2,772.26, accounting for 91.5% of the total, with a concentrated 4-hour breakout leading to a major decline, with bears winning decisively.
🔥 Market Indicators | July 24
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google's exceeded expectations but came at a heavy cost: total revenue was $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud's revenue was $24.77 billion, up 82% year-on-year. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue was $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; but operating profit was only $398 million, a sharp year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin down to just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; while Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are only conceptual but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added moral clauses, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon clearly stated that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion in gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government supervision.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging it into the autumn election will significantly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations succeed, oil prices are expected to fall.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three things outline the core contradictions in the current market: The AI bill is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market with their first-ever negative cash flow that AI is burning faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes the hope of passing the CLARITY Act within the year slim; And how long the pause in geography can last depends on the success of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand Google and Tesla's real answer this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress The market finally showed some activity today.
Bitcoin reached 65,300, up almost 1 point. In the early morning wave, it broke through 65,000 directly, reaching a high near 65,500. Erbing really stood firm this time, surging from 1,830 to above 1,950, up more than 4 points, and at least not wasting its time as the "second strongest."
To put it bluntly, there's just one thing: the Middle East has a temporary ceasefire.
Trump said to pause strikes on Iran, and Iran followed suit, saying, 'If the U.S. stops, I stop too.' After playing for so many days, both sides are exhausted. After the news broke, crude oil plummeted by 5%, US stock futures and gold rose across the board, and Dabing and Erbing got a taste of the soup.
But don't get too happy too soon; there are a few knots you already know in your heart:
First, ETFs are still running. On Thursday and Friday, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 465 million, while BlackRock lost over 200 million in just one day. Institutions haven't returned, so this rebound is driven by sentiment, not real money buying.
Second, the weekly events are too tight. On Wednesday, the Fed held a meeting, with a 35% probability of a rate hike. Although not highly probable, it is several times higher than last week's 12%. There is also price data to be released on Thursday. The Senate still has to push for a bill vote. If any of these surprises happen, today's slight gains wouldn't be enough to make a swearing.
Third, the Fear and Greed Index is 39, still lingering in the fear zone. Retail investors didn't follow suit, and sentiment didn't pick up, which means no one believes in this rebound.
Technically, the above 65,500-66,500 is all waiting to break even, while the bottom line is 64,000-64,200. Erbing's short-term resistance is between 1,870-1,900, with the previous high of 1,956 being a major hurdle.
So today's rise is a good thing, but don't take it too seriously. 65,000 has returned; the key is whether we can hold our ground. If you have a position, watch carefully and don't break 65,000; if you do, you'll go back to the old path. Short positions don't rush; wait until the Fed's knife hits on Wednesday before dealing with it. Entering this position carries more gambling than investment. $BTC $ETH $CORE is currently fluctuating around 0.018, seemingly consolidating sideways, but actually hiding dangers. The team and treasury hold a combined 700 million zero-cost tokens unlocking linearly on a monthly basis, quantitative programs apply layered pressure on the order book around the clock, and the staking mechanism only locks retail circulating supply. These three fundamental logics determine a long-term downward trend in the coin price. The Fed's expected rate cut in September may trigger a pulse rebound, but once the positive news is priced in, the market will quickly cool down. The peak is unlikely to hold above 0.021, followed by accelerated decline. From October to November, as $BTC's market diverges and funds flow back to mainstream assets, $CORE's support levels will be successively broken, with 0.013 and 0.009 potentially becoming casualties of the bulls vs. bears battle. By December year-end, liquidity will dry up, and the annual low will most likely appear near 0.0078, nearly halving from the current price. This downturn is not a short-term negative but a multi-year chip clearing process. The daily rewards from staking are actually inflation dilution; the more you lock, the faster your total assets shrink. Those out of position should not try to catch the bottom at any point; without clear bottom signals, bottom fishing is just taking the bag. Deeply trapped holders can only wait for the September rate cut rebound to the 0.020-0.021 range to gradually reduce positions. Do not expect a trend reversal, and do not add positions to average down. Short-term traders should only take short positions to play the slow decline; the tolerance for long positions is extremely low. The current price is very likely just a downward consolidation; the market is trading time for space, but the space gained is not upward but a lower price.木头姐先不跟着喊 咱把逻辑拆开看$CL $BTC $ETH 这次油价破百 表面看是红海油轮遇袭 美伊冲突外溢 霍尔木兹海峡通航量归零 但底下还有两层东西在推 第一层是供需 中东局势一紧张 溢价直接打进盘面 同时部分地区的经济复苏还在要油 供给紧 需求还在 价格自然往上顶 第二层是通胀传导 原油是工业之母 它一涨 运输成本先跟上 化工成本再跟上 最后传导到消费端 物价压力全在路上了 各国央行的降息计划全得往后推 这对风险资产不是好消息 但市场自己也有调节机制 油价太高 非必要的出行需求会被压下去 同时非OPEC产油国看到利润高 会加速放产能 新能源替代的速度也会被推一把 中期来看 市场有自我平衡的能力 只不过这个平衡过程会有点疼 短期油价波动确实考验全球经济复苏的成色 但宏观韧性 能源结构转型 这些长期变量同样关键 别被价格带着跑 看懂传导链条比猜顶重要得多#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？ #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 Changxin Technology will be listed on Monday. What market value is reasonable to buy in at?
Here is the conclusion first:
Based on Changxin's profits and the P/E ratios of the world's top three memory companies, Changxin's reasonable valuation is between ¥1.7 trillion and ¥2.1 trillion.
Considering the scarcity of domestic DRAM leaders, the market may assign a premium valuation ranging from ¥2.1 trillion to ¥3 trillion.
Additionally, factoring in the low 6.73% circulating share ratio and the market sentiment driven by South Korea's recently announced $950 billion semiconductor cooperation, there is a possibility of an intraday surge to ¥3 trillion to ¥4 trillion.
1. How much is Changxin worth based on profits and peer P/E ratios?
As of the close on July 24, the data for the world's top three memory companies are roughly:
Samsung Electronics: market value about ¥7.35 trillion, profit in the last 12 months about ¥386.7 billion, P/E ratio about 20x;
SK Hynix: market value about ¥5.95 trillion, profit in the last 12 months about ¥348.7 billion, P/E ratio about 17x;
Micron: market value about ¥7.04 trillion, profit in the last 12 months about ¥341.8 billion, P/E ratio about 21x.
Using Changxin's estimated net profit of ¥100 billion in 2026 as a baseline:
A market value of ¥2.1 trillion corresponds to a 21x P/E ratio;
A market value of ¥3 trillion corresponds to a 30x P/E ratio;
A market value of ¥4 trillion corresponds to a 40x P/E ratio.
Therefore, Changxin reaching ¥2.1 trillion would have a valuation roughly close to international peers.
Changxin is inferior to the top three in scale, technology, and customers, but it is the only A-share company capable of large-scale DRAM production, so the market may grant some domestic substitution and scarcity premium.
Note that the three international companies use profits from the last 12 months, while Changxin uses estimated profits for 2026. This data set is mainly for observing valuation positioning and should not be considered a completely identical comparison.
2. Why might South Korea's $950 billion cooperation push up Changxin's valuation?
On July 24, South Korea announced that Samsung and SK Group will collaborate with Broadcom, Nvidia, and others on about $950 billion in semiconductor cooperation over the next five years.
The cooperation involves HBM, advanced memory, and AI data centers, which will further strengthen market expectations for demand and industry prosperity in memory chips.
This news was released before Changxin's listing, potentially increasing capital attention on the memory sector and driving the market to assign a higher sentiment valuation to Changxin.
3. Why might Changxin surge to ¥3 trillion or even ¥4 trillion on the first day?
Based on profits and peer valuations, Changxin's reasonable market value is about ¥1.7 trillion to ¥2.1 trillion. But the first-day price will also be affected by the number of circulating shares.
After issuance, Changxin has a total of 66.881 billion shares, with only 4.503 billion shares tradable on the first day, about 6.73% of total shares.
If selling pressure is low and buying funds are concentrated, the stock price could be rapidly pushed up in a short time. The total market value is calculated by multiplying the current stock price by all 66.881 billion shares, so an extreme market value far exceeding reasonable valuation may appear.
If the total market value reaches ¥3 trillion, the stock price needs to rise to ¥44.86, about 418% above the issue price, corresponding to a circulating market value of about ¥202 billion.
If the total market value reaches ¥4 trillion, the stock price needs to rise to ¥59.81, about 591% above the issue price, corresponding to a circulating market value of about ¥269.3 billion.
The STAR Market new stocks have no price limit for the first five trading days. Combined with the low 6.73% circulation ratio, an intraday surge to ¥3 trillion to ¥4 trillion is possible.
However, ¥4 trillion corresponds to a 40x P/E ratio, requiring low circulation, strong sentiment, and large capital support simultaneously.
Final conclusion:
Changxin's valuation near ¥2 trillion is fundamentally reasonable; ¥3 trillion requires domestic substitution and scarcity premium; an intraday surge to ¥4 trillion mainly depends on low circulation, strong sentiment, and capital driving.
#A股#ChangxinTechnology#Memory#SamsungElectronics#SKHynix#mu#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
A community that survived in a highly leveraged market, I want to share some experiences with everyone.
The futures market is a negative-and-game game. Fees, funding rates, slippage, pin insertion—each item continuously drains participants' money. In such a market, long-term survival itself is a form of excess return.
So the most important thing is how to survive long enough in this market, so long that your cognitive advantage has the chance to turn into profit.
1. Leverage amplifies not returns, but variance
The biggest misunderstanding many beginners have about leverage is that it is understood as a "return amplifier." Wrong. Leverage amplifies variance—it magnifies both your right and wrong positions, and through liquidation mechanisms, you are directly eliminated from the "temporary mistake," unable to wait for the "final right."
If you set the right leverage for a position in one direction and set the leverage too high, a single insertion can sweep you out of the market, and then the price moves in the direction you predicted throughout the entire process. Correct direction but loss is the most common dead end in the futures market, bar none.
When effective leverage exceeds 3x, you should ask yourself: Is this trade worth the risk of liquidation?
2. The width of your stop-loss is determined by market fluctuations, not by your sense of pain
Most persona stop-loss logics are: "I can afford to lose X at most, so I set my stop-loss where I lost X." "This is measuring the market by the thickness of your own wallet; the market won't cooperate with you.
The correct order is reversed:
1. First, look at the current volatility of the instrument (for example, ATR, average true volatility);
2. Stop loss must be placed at the point where the trend has failed, and the width should be no less than 1 times ATR—otherwise, you're not stopping losses, you're just giving money to the insertion;
3. Use the "stop-loss width" to calculate the position size: a wide stop-loss means a smaller position; A narrow stop-loss allows for large positions.
Wide stop-loss + small position is better long-term than narrow stop-loss + large position. The former loses manageable small amounts, while the latter is repeatedly ripped down by market noise—each time swept away at the worst possible level, and then watched the price reverse.
There is also an iron rule: high conviction is not a reason to withdraw from stop-losses. There is no logical connection between "I'm sure it will fall below X" and "So I don't set stop-losses." The former is a viewpoint, the latter is an all-in account for a viewpoint. Opinions can be strong, but positions must be left with a fallback route.
3. Cost structure: Your competitors are not just the market, but also the bill
Contract trading involves three layers of hidden costs, and most people have never fully calculated them:
Funding rate: When the rate is positive, the long side pays the short position; when the rate is negative, the opposite is reversed. It doesn't sound like much, but in extreme market conditions, rates can reach 0.5% or even higher per day—holding the same position for a month can eat up to 15% just from the rates. Before doing arbitrage or long-term trades, you must use the historical settled rates to calculate costs. Don't use the "forecast rates" shown by the exchange, as those are estimates and can be deceiving. Conversely, if you short a stock with a very high fee, the rate is essentially handing you money—for the same short trade, you open the exchange with the highest fee, and the difference over the course of a year is huge.
Slippage and liquidity: Small coins and newly launched contract markets are extremely thin, and the real cost of moving in and out of market orders far exceeds the fees. For products with insufficient depth, the insertion is both frequent and deep, and your stop-loss order may be far below the trigger price.
Fees: For frequent inbound and out-of-the-money travelers, monthly fees often exceed the absolute value of net profit. If you find yourself "always in the right direction and your account isn't rising," first check the fee bill—the answer is usually there.
4. Frequent entry and exit is like a shredder that turns profits into losses
The most common mistake in a consolidation range is repeatedly entering and exiting, each time a little bit is swept away by the small needle, and by the end of the day, all the direction judgments are correct, but the account shrinks. This is called wear.
There is only one solution: reduce frequency and improve the quality of each transaction. One entry, wide stop-loss, hold on. If the range isn't broken, don't move; if it does, accept it. Every time you enter and exit, you pay one more fee, risk being scanned by needles, and lose control of your emotions one more time.
Ask yourself a question: In the past three months, were the ten most profitable deals you made from frequent short-term trading, or were they made with low-frequency large-scale strategies? The vast majority of people answer the latter. Profits are concentrated in a few patient orders, while losses are spread across countless orders that are eager to get hands on.
5. Don't Marry Old Views: The Fulfillment and Falsification of Thesis
Behind every large position, there should be a thesis (core logic): what event or expectation are you betting on? The key to managing this position is to keep asking: How far have I paid out on what I bet?
· Expectations fulfilled: Even if the direction is still moving, it's time to stop. The market has priced in your logic; the remaining volatility has nothing to do with your thesis—you're just running naked.
· Expectations disproven: Cut immediately, don't bargain with your position. Cutting positions is not shameful; "I was wrong" is the most expensive and valuable phrase in this market.
· Expectation reversal: The most advanced move is to cut old positions and reverse to new ones—but only if you truly recognize the new logic, not gamblers who double their losses triggered by losses.
After cashing out old thesis, following the same logic is a common source of chronic losses. Every new order should be accompanied by a fresh reason.
(This post is for trading experience sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.) Contract trading is extremely risky, so be sure to invest your money you can afford to lose. ）Expectations dashed! Majority leaders have stated that the CLARITY Act will be difficult to implement before the recess
The much-anticipated CLARITY Act in the U.S. crypto community has not received any unexpected signals. Senate majority leaders have publicly stated that this long-awaited crypto regulatory bill is unlikely to be finalized before the August summer recess.
This bill is the most important crypto legislation in the U.S. in recent years. If implemented, it will clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and the CFTC, provide a clear regulatory position for assets like BTC and ETH, bring a federal-level regulatory framework to the entire industry, and serve as a prerequisite for institutional capital to dare to enter on a large scale. Previously, the market generally regarded August 7 as a critical deadline; if this window is missed, the chances of the bill's implementation this year will be greatly reduced.
Currently, there are still significant differences between the two parties. The new crypto ethics clause for public officials, consumer protection, and stablecoin-related details are all key points of contention. The Democratic Party believes that many aspects of the current draft still need to be revised and improved, and there is currently not enough support to push for a full chamber vote. Of course, things are not completely locked down. The leadership's compromise is to at least start the bill review process before the recess, to get the process through first, and to leave some room for further negotiations after the September reconven. But after September, Congress will face a large number of higher-priority bills, and combined with the disruptions of the election cycle, the difficulty of pushing forward will skyrocket.
Let's talk about the actual impact of this incident on the market. Previously, the market had partially priced in optimistic expectations for the bill's implementation, but after the news broke, it shattered the illusion of short-term rapid legislation. In the short term, if the positive news fails to materialize, it will suppress sentiment in risk assets, meaning the "moment of clarity" for U.S. crypto regulation will continue to be postponed.
But we shouldn't be overly pessimistic. The bill isn't completely dead—it's just being delayed. Market narratives will shift from "making rules immediately" to prolonged tug-of-war. For traders, this means there is one less strong catalyst in the short term, making it difficult to expect a major one-sided rally based on this news. Two key issues to follow going forward: whether the review procedures can be completed before the adjournment, and whether the two parties can reach a compromise after resuming in September.
Policy variables are always one of the biggest variables in the crypto market. Missing positive news does not mean total negative news; it only extends the market cycle. Operating, don't bet all your bets on the bill's short-term passage.
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 On the morning of July 27, the market finally stopped focusing solely on BTC. BTC: $65,168.45, 24H +1.50% ETH: $1,947.19, 24H +4.20% SOL: $76.51, 24H +3.00% The most notable point today is not that all three coins rose, but that ETH surged back above $1,900, with gains clearly outperforming BTC. SOL also reclaimed $76, indicating that high Beta risk appetite is warming up. The Fear and Greed Index rose from 26 to 30, showing that sentiment is finally catching up a bit. However, funding rates have also started to rise, with ETH and SOL approaching 0.01%. Although still far from truly crowded, it is no longer the almost directionless state seen yesterday. Today's core judgment: this is an effective recovery after a weak pullback, but not yet a trend reversal. ETH reclaiming $1,900 is the first confirmation; whether BTC can hold above 65.5K and SOL can maintain $76 will determine if the rebound has a second leg. 1) BTC: Above 65K, finally starting to make up lost ground BTC is at $65,168.45, up 1.50% in 24H, with a trading volume of about $14.96B and a market cap of about $1.307T. The 24H range is approximately $64,243-$65,489. BTC continued to rebound from around 64.3K the previous day, reclaiming above $65,000. This move is more meaningful than the weekend bottoming on July 26 because the price has returned to the key recovery zone of the previous pullback.Today, global market risk appetite has clearly rebounded, but it currently seems more like a recovery from cooling geopolitical risks, and it is not yet possible to directly confirm that a new round of gains has begun. After the U.S. and Iran paused their mutual attacks, international oil prices fell sharply, and US stock index futures and BTC rebounded simultaneously. However, the Houthis continue to attack Saudi energy facilities, and the situation in the Middle East is far from over. This week's Federal Reserve decision, U.S. economic data, and major tech earnings reports will determine whether this rebound can continue. 1. What happened overnight? 1. U.S.-Iran pause mutual attacks, risk assets rebound first. Fact: The U.S. has temporarily halted military strikes against Iran, leaving room for both sides to resume negotiations. As a result, as of Sunday evening, Dow futures rose about 0.5%–0.6%, S&P 500 futures rose about 0.6%–0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained about 1.2%. BTC has climbed back above $65,000. As of Beijing time this morning, BTC was trading at about $65,295, with an intraday high of about $65,469 and a low of about $64,236, up about 1.5% from the previous session. Market reaction: Tech stock futures significantly outperformed Dow futures, indicating that after geopolitical risks cooled, capital was prioritized returning to previously large declines in high-valuation growth sectors. Underlying logic: Military conflict is paused → energy supply disruption risk decreases → oil prices and inflation expectations are falling → pressure from continued rising interest rates eases → tech stocks and BTC gain room to recover. However, it should be noted that the current suspension is only a pause in the fighting, not the actual situation$XAU
1) Trend position
After rebounding near the monthly low, it consolidated sideways around 4000–4150, with multiple resistance near the 200-period moving average above.
In short: the consolidation after a pullback from a high level is not a one-sided trend.
2) Market implications
Risk aversion + interest rate sensitivity. Look at the US dollar and US Treasury real interest rates.
When risk appetite rebounds, gold tends to be weak; Only when risk aversion heats up can the speed accelerate.
Three steps to enhance strength:
(1) Hold firm at 4000
(2) Passed 4150–4160
(3) Stand above 4200 and hold firm
Now stop at (1) and (2), repeatedly trying and not getting clean.
3) Why the key positions are critical
• 4000–4020: Psychological + structural support. Hold on = the bull bottom position remains; Breaking below 3975 = target 3950 or even deeper.
• 4080–4150 / ~4158: Closest pressure recently. Breakthrough and firm standing = repair and upgrade; Surging and pulling back = continuing within a range.
4) Today's trading strategy
• Direction: Range-bound thinking, no one-sided beliefs
• Long: Push back to 4000–4025, stabilize, go long
• Short: Push to 4120–4150 for obvious stagnation, so be lightly short
• Stop loss: Long 3970; Short 4170
• Target: Long on 4080–4120; short on 4020–4000
• Position: Within 10%.
You can do swing trading, but you can't use it as a single trend heavy position. The above are my personal technical views and do not constitute investment advice. Position control is the top priority.$CORE CoreDAO项目方持续抛售代币六大核心底层原因
一、筹码零成本，抛售纯无风险套利（根本动因）
1. 团队份额3.15亿枚（总量15%），创世阶段无任何资金成本，仅锁定1年后分36个月线性解锁，2026年处于集中释放中段，每月固定千万枚零成本筹码自动划入项目方可控钱包，解锁后唯一目的就是变现落袋为安。
2. 国库1.995亿枚、储备基金2.1亿枚创世即解锁，全部由基金会单方面掌控，无需DAO投票划转；官方已将国库大额CORE抵押借贷稳定币，抵押只是过渡形式，最终仍会分批抛售偿还债务、提取现金流。
3. 合计7亿枚可控筹码，远高于散户自由流通盘，只要市场存在承接资金，就会持续分批派发，不存在惜售托币动机。
二、生态无造血能力，全靠抛售代币覆盖运营开支
1. 主打产品SatPay、BTCFi价值飞轮持续跳票，截至2026年7月无规模化商用场景、无稳定手续费营收，白皮书承诺的“生态回购”全程无链上大额买单佐证，项目没有自主现金流来源。
2. 团队薪资、KOL水军投放、海外公关会议（香港Web3峰会）、节点补贴、交易所做市费用全部依靠变卖CORE维持；一旦停止抛售，整个项目的营销与运营体系会直接断流。
3. 原Gas销毁机制被官方逐步取消，区块手续费不再销毁代币，全部流入基金会运营池，进一步放大流通供给，加剧抛售需求。
三、温水阴跌式出货，是最优变现策略，规避崩盘风险
1. 暴力大单砸盘会直接击穿市场流动性，变成无量崩盘，海量筹码彻底卖不出去；匀速分层抛售、用量化拆分等额卖单缓慢阴跌，能长期维持基础流动性，拉长数年出货周期。
2. 每次释放生态利好（SatPay对接、机构节点合作）制造小幅脉冲反弹，专门吸引抄底散户承接解锁筹码，反弹窗口就是集中抛售窗口期，利好本质是出货配套公关手段。
3. B14G、节点质押机制刻意引导散户买入锁仓，减少散户止损抛压，二级市场只剩项目方单向卖出，供需失衡最大化承接效率。
四、中心化治理，无托币意愿，DAO只是包装概念
1. 名义去中心化DAO，实则国库调配、做市量化策略、代币解锁节奏全部由核心团队单方面决策，社区投票无法干预大额筹码处置。
2. 项目方没有长期经营代币的诉求：BTCFi赛道竞品Stacks、Babylon持续分流机构资金，CORE无独家技术壁垒，团队预判长期估值下行，选择趁尚有流动性提前套现离场，避免后期币价归零筹码彻底作废。
3. 无长期市值管理规划，从未投入自有资金回购托底，所有叙事只为稳住场内套牢盘，防止集体割肉导致出货通道断裂。
五、宏观与赛道资金退潮，提前变现规避贬值风险
1. 市场热点持续切换至Meme板块，BTCFi赛道增量资金断层，场外游资集体规避筹码高度集中的VC山寨币，后续接盘人群只会持续缩减，越早抛售变现汇率越高。
2. 全球加密监管趋严，针对代币解锁套现、程序化市场操纵的核查收紧；项目方选择分批缓慢出货，规避一次性大额抛售带来的监管追责风险，降低量化操纵的定性证据。
3. 即便美联储降息带来大盘宽松，也只是短期脉冲行情，团队会抓住流动性高峰加大抛售力度，不会持有等待趋势反转。
六、水军与叙事策略调整，不需要拉新，只需要持续消化存量筹码
1. 此前喊梭哈、重仓的吹子托集体失声，核心原因是场内散户全部深度套牢，已经没有增量新韭菜，无需再花钱造势拉盘；现阶段只需要持续抛售存量解锁筹码，少量公关公告维稳场内持仓者即可。
2. 场外资金避雷共识成型，造势拉新性价比归零，营销预算收缩，资源全部倾斜于出货配套的温和叙事，而非拉盘炒作。
⚠️风险提示：虚拟货币交易炒作在我国属于非法金融活动，内容仅客观拆解代币经济与操盘逻辑，不构成任何投资交易建议Junk bonds have already shown signs of breaking out and warrant high vigilance
The junk bond market is weakening, and this signal deserves close attention.
Currently, the number of bonds hitting new lows in the market far exceeds the types that hit new highs. The price line (the price line) is about to fall to its lowest level in a year.
Historical experience shows that high-yield junk bonds are often a highly effective early warning indicator for the stock market, especially when stock indices are at high levels, where abnormal movements in the credit market often preemptively reflect subsequent changes in the equity market.
⚠️ Market signal observation is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Looking at Google's and Tesla's earnings reports side by side this time is quite interesting. On the surface, both companies are talking about AI, autonomous driving, and next-generation products; But when it comes to cash flow, investment pace, and profit quality, the story is not the same.
Let's start with Google. Alphabet's Q2 revenue was $119.8 billion, up 24% year-over-year. The cloud business continues to grow rapidly, indicating that AI demand is beginning to turn into orders. Search ads haven't suddenly collapsed; AI summaries and AI modes are temporarily more like changing entry points rather than immediately replacing search. However, investment income accounts for a high proportion of net profit, so you can't simply treat it as a main business that has already earned so much. The real question Google wants to answer is whether the computing power and data center budget invested in the coming years can be redeemed for higher cloud revenue, more stable ad efficiency, and new subscription revenue.
Tesla is like a different kind of test. In the second quarter, over 480,000 vehicles were delivered, generating about $28 billion in revenue, but AI infrastructure, robotics, autonomous driving, and new factories are all advancing simultaneously, driving up capital expenditures and putting pressure on free cash flow. Its most appealing aspect is that it portrays car companies as software, energy, and robotics; The most hesitant part is that these long-term stories require spending money today; short-term income statements are unlikely to testify for the future.
Looking at these two financial reports, what matters most isn't the after-hours price fluctuations, but whether management has fully explained the chain of "input—product—revenue—cash flow." Google has advertising and cloud services as a foundation, giving it greater room for trial and error; Tesla has a bigger imagination, but it must face the reality of simultaneous changes in car prices, delivery pace, and R&D investment. One bets on strong cash flow for the future, the other seeks cash flow in future narratives. Whether valuations can hold up ultimately depends on input-output rather than just slogans.
This is also worth noting: as US giants continue to push budgets toward AI, computing power, and automation, market risk appetite becomes more sensitive, and liquidity assets in the digital asset market often reflect this sentiment first. Treating financial reports as transcripts isn't enough; what's truly useful is seeing what comes from behind the scores and where the money comes from and where it will be spent.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile. Please, #earningsObserver: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? $BTC Independent judgment and attention to risks.#Gate.io Temp Worker
Gate's official team continues to claim that Robin, who connects with our ALD community, is an impersonator and a scammer. Here are several core questions that cannot be avoided. Please answer them directly:
1. If Robin is merely an external scammer and not a Gate staff member, an unauthorized impostor, what right does he have to complete the full Gate Alpha listing process and successfully list ALD tokens on the platform?
Gate listing uses an internal multi-layer approval mechanism, making it impossible for outsiders to operate on their own. If outsiders can casually impersonate employees to complete token listings, does this prove that Gate's internal permission management has completely gone out of control, allowing anyone to impersonate staff and lead project listings?
2. We will pay the USDT and ALD corresponding to the listed currency in full according to the matchmaker's requirements. If Robin is considered personal fraud, why did the scammer guide us to transfer funds that ultimately flow into the Gate system, and why did the token launch as scheduled?
Ordinary people commit fraud with the goal of embezzling funds without authorization; Moreover, the successful listing of tokens after this settlement is completely inconsistent with the logic of ordinary scammers.
3. Gate cannot simply use the phrase "the intermediary is a scammer" to unilaterally tear up the token listing agreement reached by both parties.
The successful launch of the token on Gate Alpha is an objective established fact; trading behavior and fulfillment results are real. They cannot enjoy the benefits paid by the project party and refuse to fulfill all agreed obligations on the grounds of "personnel impersonation."
4. We hope Gate will publicly disclose the complete approval process for the ALD launch of Gate Alpha and the internal handling staff.
If Robin has no official authorization, please explain: How did an external impersonator bypass all internal risk controls and approvals to complete the entire listing process? Does this mean there is a major vulnerability in Gate Alpha's listing channel, and all project teams face the risk of being lured by fake personnel?Stop worrying about the Nasdaq bubble every day.
New Nasdaq regulations for 2026 are actively repairing the structural risks of the index:
Weights of low-float stocks,
Component stocks are reviewed quarterly,
Super companies are quickly included after going public,
Avoid letting a few stocks and passive funds ruin the index.
Of course, the new regulations cannot eliminate the bubble.
But at least it says one thing:
Today's Nasdaq is not the 2000 Nasdaq that only knew concepts and trash companies could soar.
What should truly be focused on is not whether there is a bubble, but whether corporate profits can catch up with valuations. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? $BTC #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零
Ethereum validators leaving the queue to zero is quite something worth pondering.
Here are a few key figures. In September 2025, the exit queue backlog peaked at 2.67 million ETH, valued at about $11.7 billion. And now? 0. Retreat whenever you want, no one leaves. Meanwhile, the entry queue is about 2.499 million ETH, requiring 43 days to get in. With one entry and one out, the difference was over two million coins. Currently, about 40.8 million ETH have been staked across the network, accounting for 33.49% of the total supply, with 883724 active validators and an annualized staking yield of 2.64%.
The motivation for quitting is often selling for cash or lacking confidence in the internet. No one is lining up to exit, which means these stakers aren't in a rush to cash out now; they feel it's more cost-effective to take the pledge returns than to sell. Some people are lining up to enter, which means there are nearly 2.5 million ETH outside wanting to be locked up. A network no one wants to enter, and a threshold that many people want to enter—this signal is more direct than any candlestick chart.
And there's a bigger background to this—Ethereum ETFs had accumulated net inflows of $10.48 billion by mid-July. Institutions are buying ETFs, major players are staking, and both forces are simultaneously draining liquidity. Wallet addresses are decreasing, and tradable ETH is decreasing.
A few days ago, Vitalik also proposed an "extreme streamlined chain," aiming to compress each validator's state to about 6 bytes and replace cyclical updates with ZK proofs, aiming to scale validators to the millions. It seems the team itself is preparing for a larger lock-up.
The staking yield is 2.64%, which isn't high, but combined with ETH's expected appreciation, it is indeed attractive for long-term capital. These people aren't quitting not because they don't want to sell, but because they feel now is not the time to sell.🚢 A loud explosion in the Strait of Hormuz caused the tanker to explode, instantly boosting market risk aversion. Iran claims to stop retaliating, Trump has withdrawn strikes for two consecutive nights, and this "Errenzhuan" between the US and Iran continues to pull and pull at each other, pure torture.
📊 The inflation ghost story returns: U.S. Treasury yields soar, the dollar strengthens, and rate cut expectations are repeatedly suppressed. $BTC The rebound is firmly held back by four major obstacles—the US dollar, US Treasuries, rate cut prospects, geopolitical risks—are bulls trying to break through? Difficult.
🔍 The TRUMP team just transferred 13.8 million tokens to CEX—could this be a sign of selling pressure? No conclusion has been reached yet. On the other hand, Saylor has openly hinted at buying next week, causing a split between bulls and bears.
⏳ At Monday's open, three things were watched: oil prices took a stance first, US Treasury yields followed suit, and the final answer from the market was released. Don't guess, wait for the market to speak.
#伊朗 #TRUMP #霍尔木兹 #比特币We have no person in charge. Now I need to be aware of the following issues. I am only contacting through the official Gate app. Management, please address the issues below. Please read the text carefully and avoid perfunctory rhetoric. Gate's meaning is: the 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD we paid according to the contract were sent to the "scammer's" wallet. Coincidentally, Gate's alpha automatically fetched ALD tokens, so they could not disclose who connected the token integration process. In the end, the scammer's wallet was transferred to Gate Is it true that alphas are airdropping?
Hash is here:
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
When a project pays for it, lists tokens, and is then told, "The person communicating with you is not one of us, and the project is logged into Gate"—is this Gate's response?A series of major events are arriving this week, with multiple key data and financial reports set the tone for risk assets
A brand-new trading week has begun, with various catalysts unfolding in clusters, and the market is about to enter a very lively week.
On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran have chosen to exercise restraint between the two sides, leading to a phased cooling of the conflict and reemerging possibilities for restarting negotiations. Driven by a decline in risk aversion, Brent crude oil prices have fallen below the $90 mark, giving risk assets a breathing room in the short term.
The domestic capital market also experienced a major event: Hefei Changxin Technology, a leading domestic DRAM, listed on the A-share STAR Market. This is also one of the largest IPOs ever on the STAR Market, with an issue price set at 8.66 yuan and a corresponding valuation close to 580 billion yuan, marking an important capital milestone for the domestic memory chip industry.
On the overseas side, SK Hynix will release its Q2 financial report on Wednesday. In this AI-driven storage upcycle, the reference value of this financial report should not be underestimated; its importance can even rival NVIDIA's financial report, serving as a core indicator for observing the AI industry chain's prosperity.
On Thursday, the U.S. will release core PCE inflation data. If the core PCE monthly rate exceeds market expectations, it will reinforce the market's judgment that high interest rates will persist longer, leading to stronger U.S. Treasury yields and the US dollar, putting downward pressure on tech stocks, Bitcoin, and gold; Conversely, if inflation data falls short of expectations, the market will reprice liquidity easing expectations, leading to positive momentum for AI tech stocks and crypto assets.
PCE is responsible for presenting inflation realities, while the subsequent Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision will signal the policy response.
After the U.S. market closed on July 29, Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and ARM collectively released their Q2 2026 earnings reports. Combined with SK Hynix's earnings report, the revenue and capital expenditure guidance from these giants will jointly shape the direction of the global AI technology sector and major risk asset classes in the coming quarter.
After a week of intensive data and earnings reports, the market will gather more clues to help deduce the general landscape of risk assets in the third and fourth quarters. AI is a long-term fixed track, and at this stage, the industry has not yet reached a bubble stage.
⚠️ This article is only a summary of market events and does not constitute any investment advice.$BTC Yesterday, MicroStrategy raised USDT reserves to $3 billion
Cashed out $467 million by selling MSTR shares
BTC holdings are 843,000 coins, not a single coin sold
If MicroStrategy is bearish, after selling MSTR, they should have sold BTC along with it, but they didn't sell
He should be using low-cost equity financing to buy coins, not selling coins to buy coins. The 843,000 tokens are the base position, not chips
In the short term, this 3 billion is "ready to get bullets." In the medium term, MSTR discounts are narrowing, indicating the market should be repricing this modelThe crypto community often discusses US stocks, macro policies, liquidity, and other topics, sometimes making them a bit dizzying.
To try to understand simply, I made a comparison chart of BTC and US M2.
Let's start with the conclusion:
Setting aside short-term fluctuations, the US M2 has generally risen over the long term, while BTC's long-term price center continues to climb.
This shows that there is indeed a certain structural relationship between BTC and the liquidity cycle.
Next, let's look at M2 YoY (year-on-year growth rate of M2 money supply):
Around 2023, liquidity contraction neared its low, then gradually recovered, and now returns to positive growth, with the latest value at about +5.6%.
My understanding:
Of course, BTC short-term predictions cannot be made based on M2 trading.
But looking at a longer timeframe, changes in the US liquidity environment may have a significant impact on the long-term pricing of BTC, a scarce digital asset.
In other words:
BTC is not just a high-volatility risk asset. From a longer perspective, its value storage logic as a scarce digital asset is indeed quite interesting. On a large cycle scale, the connection between liquidity conditions and BTC's long-term trend may be deeper than many people imagine.
(Personal amateur research, does not constitute investment advice)$BTC Today's crypto headlines
1) Bitcoin briefly broke through $65,000. The escalation in Iran has pushed up oil prices and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets simultaneously, and macroeconomics once again becoming the core of short-term pricing.
2) US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for the seventh consecutive trading day, with the latest single-day inflow at about $69 million, with a cumulative total close to $1 billion; Institutional funds are still taking over, but the strength is not enough to offset macroeconomic pressure.
3) The cross-chain bridge operated by AFX and Verus experienced security incidents within hours, involving approximately $31.6 million in assets; The risks are concentrated in the bridge's signature and key systems, while Arbitrum's native bridge remains unaffected.
Conclusion: ETF funds provide marginal support, but oil prices, yields, and safety risks still dominate. In the short term, leverage should be controlled and macro volatility converge.$BTC $ETH #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, Endorsed by Industry Collectives On July 27, Japanese and Korean stock markets opened with forty minutes of volatility, showing a pattern of weak opening and pull-back after rallies. Overseas markets saw significant sentiment suppression from overnight drops in US tech stocks. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index opened slightly higher, rising as much as 0.86% in early trading, but has since narrowed its gain to 0.38%, showing a relatively stable trend. On the board, low-valuation weighted indices such as finance and heavy manufacturing stabilized the market, while the semiconductor equipment sector surged but then retreated. Funds realized short-term profits, with no sustained incremental capital inflow. South Korea's KOSPI opened up 1.73%. Stimulated by positive cooperation in memory chips, Samsung and SK Hynix surged sharply in early trading. However, bullish pressure quickly emerged, and the index currently rose only 0.05%, nearly flat. Korea's ChiNext KOSDAQ showed relative resilience, maintaining a 1.18% gain, with smaller and mid-cap tech stocks showing stronger support. Sector differentiation is significant, with the AI storage industry chain benefiting early and chip leaders surging but then retreating; Pro-cyclical sectors such as shipbuilding and machinery held up against the trend, while precious metals and oil & gas safe-haven stocks weakened slightly. Overall, the Asia-Pacific market lacked rebound momentum, negative sentiment from overnight tech plunges in U.S. stocks continued, and the positive news for memory chips only brought short-term pulse rallies. The weakness in Japanese and Korean tech stocks will slightly suppress the early recovery of A-share semiconductor and CPO sectors, and overall market risk aversion remains, making it difficult to break out of a one-sided rally in the short term. AI investment enters its second half, and the real winners are not those who burn the most money
As a financial report observer, I want to look at the AI industry from a perspective that's often overlooked.
Many people see Google and Tesla's financial reports and first react to revenue growth and profit changes, but what the market truly focuses on is one issue:
When will the money invested by AI turn into sustained revenue growth?
Data:
Google Alphabet
Revenue: $119.8 billion, up 24% year-over-year
Google Cloud: $24.8 billion, up 82% year-on-year
2026 capital expenditure guidance: $195 billion to $205 billion
Core changes:
AI business is driving rapid growth in cloud revenue, but massive infrastructure investments are also prompting the market to reassess the return cycle.
Tesla
Revenue: $28.2 billion, up 26% year-over-year
R&D expenses: significantly increased year-on-year
Capital expenditure continues to expand, with a focus on autonomous driving, robotics, and AI infrastructure
Core changes:
The automotive business remains a source of cash flow, but future valuations will increasingly depend on whether AI stories can be realized.
From a historical perspective, at the beginning of every technological revolution, the market goes through a phase:
The first stage is to see who invests the most.
The second stage is to see who leads in technology.
The third stage is to see who can turn investment into profit.
AI may now be entering its third phase.
In the past two years, the market has rewarded computing power suppliers due to explosive demand for GPUs, servers, and storage.
However, future competition may shift:
Who has the more efficient model?
Who can reduce the cost of AI applications?
Who can truly commercialize AI?
This is also why the storage industry deserves attention.
South Korea's storage giants Samsung and SK Hynix have recently benefited from growing demand for AI servers, with HBM high-bandwidth memory becoming a core component of AI infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Changxin Technology's upcoming IPO has also refocused the market on the domestic storage industry chain.
In the coming years, storage may not be just a simple cyclical rebound, but rather a structural opportunity brought by AI infrastructure upgrades.
But the risks are also obvious.
If AI capital spending grows faster than commercialization, the market may reprice the entire AI sector.
What truly deserves attention is not who shouts AI the loudest, but who can turn AI investment into real profits.
My viewpoint:
The AI rally is not over, but investment logic is changing.
In the first half, let's look at hash rate.
The second half will depend on efficiency and execution ability.
In the coming years, the competition among storage, cloud computing, and AI applications may be the true battlefield that determines the winner.
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? Guys, did you sleep well last night?
I didn't sleep well anyway—woken up by my phone at 3 a.m., glanced at the pick: SHIB +40%, LPT +5%, Solana and BNB gains instantly lost their appeal. Rubbing his eyes to make sure he wasn't mistaken: 0.000005361. Three days ago he was lying on his stomach at 0.0000049, and when he woke up, he was almost touching 0.0000058. The group has already started shouting "hundredfold," "reset to zero," and "the dog farm is here," even LPT, a "veteran meat," has been pushed from 1.4 to 1.55.
Here's the question—who is buying? Why buy it? Is it a bull return, or a scam?
---
Market analysis: The weekend "fireworks show" is not so simple
Let's first look at SHIB's data. The 24-hour high was 0.000005827, the lowest was 0.000004906, with an amplitude close to 19%. Trading volume was 3.63 trillion SHIB, with a total turnover of 19.63 million USDT—this volume isn't exaggerated on a weekday, but in a low-liquidity weekend environment, it was enough to drive the price sky. EMA5 (0.000005355), EMA10 (0.000005344), and EMA20 (0.000005325) are all below the price, with short-term moving averages aligned in bullish alignment, and the technical outlook is indeed positive. However, note that after the high of 0.000005827, the price fell back to 0.000005361, indicating obvious selling pressure above.
Looking at LPT, it's even more typical. The 24-hour high was 1.787, the lowest was 1.423, with an amplitude of 25%+, but the current price is only 1.553, down 13% from the high. Although the EMA moving averages are bullish, trading volume has sharply shrunk from its high—VOL (LPT) is only 27.295, half of the earlier session. This combination of "surge, pullback, then shrink volume + shrinkage" is a typical example of a pulse rebound in old coins.
Key background: These two events occurred during Bitcoin's sideways trading weekend. Bitcoin is dozing off around 68k, liquidity is drying up, and small amounts of money can trigger big swings. Smart money doesn't blindly launch all-out attacks; it usually ignites the most recognizable stock first—SHIB, as the king of memes, is naturally the best "thermometer." If SHIB rises and the market follows the trend enthusiastically, it indicates that on-site funds still have vitality; If you can't keep up, then just keep lying flat.
Therefore, this rally is more like a "weekend market makers' test"—testing whether on-site funds are still active and whether anyone is willing to chase them. And what happened? SHIB fell 40% quickly and then quickly retreated; LPT dropped 25% but gave up more than half. There are followers, but their sustainability is insufficient.
---
Trading direction: Don't treat testing as a trend
Short-term strategy:
· SHIB: Currently 0.000005361, very close to EMA5. If it can rise again to 0.0000055 with increased volume today, in the short term a rebound could be seen at 0.0000058-0.0000060. However, the stop loss must be set below 0.0000052 (EMA20). Once it falls below this, it indicates that bulls are losing momentum and there is a high probability of testing the previous low of 0.0000049. A 1:2 profit-loss ratio allows for small positions to test trades.
· LPT: 1.553 is neither going up nor down. The upper 1.65-1.75 is the heavy resistance zone, while the lower 1.45 is support. If volume rises and breaks through 1.6, you can chase, but it's safer to wait for a pullback near 1.5 to buy long. This product has poor liquidity, high slippage, and a position that's half as light as SHIB.
Medium- to Long-Term Outlook:
· Over 95% of the weekend pulse rally was a false breakout. Without the Bitcoin (for example, Bitcoin breaking 70,000), these old coins will find it difficult to break out of an independent trend.
· What are SHIB's fundamentals? The rise in activity among Korean traders is positive, but the essence of meme coins is emotional gaming; without sustained narrative, there is no sustained capital.
· LPT, this "old meat," has no new story; it's purely a follower spurred by SHIB, with the worst sustainability.
My operation: In the morning session, I already reduced half my position in SHIB at 0.0000054, and didn't touch LPT. If SHIB can break through 0.0000056 with increased volume this afternoon, I'll catch up; if it falls below 0.0000053, I'll just watch the show.
---
A bit of thought: weekend fireworks are just for show
After trading for a while, you'll notice a pattern—coins that surge over the weekend often don't rise on Monday. Because the main players used low liquidity to push prices up, attracting retail investors to chase the rise over the weekend, then when liquidity recovered on Monday, they sold off accordingly. You might think it's a "weekend carnival," but it's actually a "weekend trap."
I've suffered losses too many times. Previously, when SHIB jumped 20%, I would impulsively buy in with a full sell-off, only to crash back to square one at the opening on Monday, leaving no time to stop losses. Later, I learned my lesson: during weekend pulses, only reduce positions, never increase positions. If you have a bottom position, you can sell a little on a rally; If you are short on a position, it's better to miss out than chase—because in this kind of market, chasing in will likely cause you to stand guard. If you don't chase for the most profitable amount, the safety of your principal is most important.
Also, don't try to guess "why prices are rising." Korean traders pushing? So why did LPT also rise? Are Koreans also buying LPT? Many times, the rise and fall are random fluctuations, and excuses are just to convince yourself to chase highs. A real big market is definitely a trend driven by a large pie, not just a few old coins hyping themselves over the weekend.
So, my principle is this: treat the weekend rally like fireworks, and set your direction when the market opens on Monday.
DYOR, set stop-losses and don't let fireworks blind you. 🎆
$SHIB $LPT $DOGE
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, it has received endorsement from industry collectives At this point in time, is Kevin Wash a hawk or a dovish?
Market expectations for the number of rate hikes in September have risen from 0.4 before the June meeting to 1.1 now. The market habitually looks for narratives after the fact: when the stock market falls, rumors spread that Walsh is restarting balance sheet reduction and the market is doomed; The stock market is at a high level, but then he changes his stance, saying he's turning dovish and is about to cut rates.
In reality, it's basically unrealistic for Wash's to restart the scale, so don't hold onto illusions. At the beginning of the year, the Fed made a small balance sheet expansion to address tight liquidity in the banking system, and now there is no room left for balance sheet reduction. If balance sheet reduction is to be restarted, the prerequisite is to first relax some constraints on the banking sector.
As for rate hikes, at least for now, Walsh is satisfied with the market's current pricing situation. The core will depend on whether he will directly and forcefully counter market expectations; if he does, it will deal a fatal blow to the credibility of the new Fed chairman.
⚠️ This is solely a market opinion inferrer and does not constitute any investment advice.Storj Labs' Chapter 11 restructuring application focuses on whether the ecosystem fund will be used to repay debts, and the dilution expectations during the restructuring process directly engage in a game with the underlying fundamentals of normal network operation.
Current market facts show that Storj Labs has entered bankruptcy restructuring rather than liquidation, with node networks and data storage functions still running, and $STORJ market value staying just above $100 million.
The main driver of the short-term trend is the restructuring court's ruling on the debt settlement pathway, followed by rising inflation expectations leading to position clearing, with overall risk appetite in the decentralized storage sector shrinking in third place.
In the upside scenario, the restructuring plan clearly separates the token ecosystem fund from debt repayment; once old debt is removed, selling pressure is dissipated, and funds return to pricing the network value to maintain operation. The script requires observing whether the court announcement prohibits the use of token assets; if creditors signal to force token liquidation, the script becomes invalid.
In the downside scenario, the debt restructuring plan is set to fill the debt gap by issuing or consuming ecosystem funds, with dilution effects directly disrupting token economics and prompting long positions to exit faster. This scenario requires attention to the token disposal clauses in the draft; if the diluted share is locked up by long-term protocols as a guarantee, the downside scenario becomes invalid.
Across the decentralized storage sector, $FIL and $AR have experienced long-term adjustments, while $STORJ maintained its valuation based on enterprise client performance. This incident has intensified internal capital repositioning within the sector.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether the bankruptcy restructuring court's first debt restructuring draft includes plans for selling or issuing token ecosystem funds.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, progress in negotiations on the opening of the strait has #贝莱德等九机构组建安全联盟I analyze from a cyclical perspective + capital perspective + technical perspective:
1. The current core logic of ETH
ETH is not due to rising retail sentiment.
There are three main factors truly driving ETH:
(1) ETF fund flows
Recently, there have been signs of ETF funds returning to the market, and institutional selling pressure has significantly eased compared to before. ETH previously rebounded from around $1,500, essentially signaling that funds are beginning to reassess their long-term value.
(2) RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization)
This is one of the most important logics for the next 3-5 years.
Data shows:
* In Q1 2026, the global RWA scale has exceeded $19 billion
* Stock tokenization and government bond tokenization are growing very rapidly
* Ethereum remains one of the main RWA bearer networks
I've been following the following before:
* ONDO
* Stock tokenization
* Micron tokenization
* Hynix tokenization
In fact, many of these will eventually be associated with the ETH ecosystem.
(3) Stablecoin growth
ETH's biggest moat is actually not DeFi.
Instead:
* USDT
* USDC
* RWA
* ETF
* Institutional liquidation
Most of these assets still operate around the Ethereum ecosystem.
2. Possible future positive developments
If any of the following situations occur:
Scenario 1: The Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates
Historical Patterns:
Interest rate cuts → weaker US dollar→ risk assets strengthened
The usual order of benefits is:
BTC → ETH → altcoins
ETH is often the biggest beneficiary of the second phase.
Scenario 2: ETH ETFs continue to see net inflows
If the ETF has inflows for several consecutive months:
ETH may regain institutional allocation.
In this case:
$2,000 will not be the end.
Scenario 3: RWA outbreak
Currently, the market still undervalues RWAs.
According to CoinGecko data:
From 2025 to Q1 2026, RWA scale is expected to grow by more than 250%.
If rapid growth continues over the next two years:
ETH will continue to benefit.
3. Possible future negative factors
Greatest Risk 1: U.S. economic recession
If you encounter the following:
* Unemployment rate is rising rapidly
* US stocks plunged
Funds will leave the crypto market first.
Biggest Risk 2: ETF funds will flow out again
ETH has not yet fully escaped institutional selling pressure.
If continuous outflow reappears:
ETH may retest the 1800 or even 1700 area.
Biggest Risk 3: Solana ecosystem seizing the market
Although ETH still leads:
But chains like Solana and Base are competing for:
* RWA
* Payment
* Stock tokenization
ETH's market share is gradually being diluted.
4. Trend Prediction for the Next Six Months
Optimistic scenario (25% probability)
Conditions:
* ETFs continue to flow in
* The Federal Reserve signals rate cuts
* BTC breaks its all-time high
ETH maybe:
1930 → 2200 → 2500 → 2800
Neutral Situation (50% Probability)
Conditions:
* ETF inflows are average
* The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady
ETH maybe:
Fluctuating within the 1800~2300 range
This is what I believe is the most probable scenario.
Pessimistic scenario (25% probability)
Conditions:
* US stocks plunged
* Rising macro risks
* ETF outflows
ETH maybe:
1930 → 1800 → 1700
Even testing 1600.
My outlook for ETH in the next 6-12 months
If I were to give a comprehensive conclusion:
Short-term (1-4 weeks)
Relatively high
Objectives:
1950 → 2000 → 2100
Mid-term (3-6 months)
Fluctuating upward
Target Range:
2200~2800
Long-term (before 2027)
If:
* The rate cut cycle has begun
* RWA continues to expand
* ETFs continue to accumulate funds
Then ETH returning above $3,000 is not difficult.
From an investment perspective, my current judgment on ETH is:
The probability of an increase is about 60%-65%, and the probability of a drop is about 35%-40%.
$ETH Gold has dropped to a spot, but no one is buying.
Since March, $XAUT gold has dropped a cumulative 25.3%, marking the fastest pullback since 1980. RSI fell to 24.6, net long non-commercial positions fell to the second lowest level since 2010, with valuation models implying a midpoint of about $3,861 per ounce. All three indicators point to the same conclusion: gold is oversold.
And then? Since June, global gold ETF holdings have continued to decrease by 55 tons. The bottom signal has come out, but funds just won't flow in.
Gold's decline is not a breakdown of the "de-dollarization" narrative.
Since 2022, the share of the US dollar in international payments has instead increased by 10.2%. More than 60% of central banks believe that gold purchases have nothing to do with "de-dollarization." The rise in gold prices is a resonance between investment demand and central bank gold purchases, not one replacing the other.
The real culprit is the simultaneous decline of both investment demands.
Global central bank gold purchases of 244 tons in the first quarter have not slowed down. But on China's side, overheated sentiment in A-shares and RMB appreciation have dampened enthusiasm for gold purchases. On the European and American sides, 163 tons of gold were sold off amid rising real interest rates and a rebound in the US dollar. If both sides withdraw at the same time, gold can't hold on.
What is gold waiting for?
Oil prices remain high, geopolitical risks have yet to be cleared, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates nearly twice this year. Gold is waiting for two things: global liquidity easing, or cooling geopolitical volatility. Only when one of these two signals appears will gold truly start moving.
Isn't this scenario familiar to the crypto market?
How long has BTC been grinding around 60,000? Every rebound is suppressed, and every drop is bottom-fished. Everyone is waiting for the same thing—when will the Fed really pivot? Gold's "bottom signal came up but didn't rise" and BTC's "60,000 bottom grinding" are the same story. Both assets are waiting for the Federal Reserve to speak.
Whoever waits first runs first.
(Gold's predicament is a mirror of the crypto market—the expected rate hikes weigh down all non-yielding assets.) When the Fed truly loosens its tone, gold may not be the first to rise, but potentially the more elastic $BTC. But before that, everyone had to endure. ）The market finally showed some activity today.
Bitcoin reached 65,300, up almost 1 point. In the early morning wave, it broke through 65,000 directly, reaching a high near 65,500. Erbing really stood firm this time, surging from 1,830 to above 1,950, up more than 4 points, and at least not wasting its time as the "second strongest."
To put it bluntly, there's just one thing: the Middle East has a temporary ceasefire.
Trump said to pause strikes on Iran, and Iran followed suit, saying, 'If the U.S. stops, I stop too.' After playing for so many days, both sides are exhausted. After the news broke, crude oil plummeted by 5%, US stock futures and gold rose across the board, and Dabing and Erbing got a taste of the soup.
But don't get too happy too soon; there are a few knots you already know in your heart:
First, ETFs are still running. On Thursday and Friday, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 465 million, while BlackRock lost over 200 million in just one day. Institutions haven't returned, so this rebound is driven by sentiment, not real money buying.
Second, the weekly events are too tight. On Wednesday, the Fed held a meeting, with a 35% probability of a rate hike. Although not highly probable, it is several times higher than last week's 12%. There is also price data to be released on Thursday. The Senate still has to push for a bill vote. If any of these surprises happen, today's slight gains wouldn't be enough to make a swearing.
Third, the Fear and Greed Index is 39, still lingering in the fear zone. Retail investors didn't follow suit, and sentiment didn't pick up, which means no one believes in this rebound.
Technically, the above 65,500-66,500 is all waiting to break even, while the bottom line is 64,000-64,200. Erbing's short-term resistance is between 1,870-1,900, with the previous high of 1,956 being a major hurdle.
So today's rise is a good thing, but don't take it too seriously. 65,000 has returned; the key is whether we can hold our ground. If you have a position, watch carefully and don't break 65,000; if you do, you'll go back to the old path. Short positions don't rush; wait until the Fed's knife hits on Wednesday before dealing with it. Entering this position carries more gambling than investment. $BTC $ETH Last season, Crypto kept rewarding paper hands;
The rewarded paper hands and the shortsighted capital behind them constantly promote shortsighted behaviors and "control" public opinion and aesthetics, which has almost become an inevitable chain of dissemination;
Last season, we didn't see Doge create an ATH, nor ETH and SOL generate the gains they deserved, except for BTC barely hitting new highs;
By the way, those who have been on the four-year cycle seem to have forgotten that last season, BTC hit a new high before the halving;
Then the market started saying ETH was crap, SOL was the Holy Grail, and Pump accelerated this paper hand culture;
I don't know about others, but my honest feeling is: aside from the real meme meta PEPE brought after NFTs in 2023, there was nothing truly exciting about the last crypto season;
Not to mention the shock caused by GME, DOGE, and SHIB back then;
Only countless speedruns remained, peaking when Trump issued the currency;
But we really didn't see the birth of a legend last season; many paper players abandoned crypto to chase AI stocks half a year ago;
This is a relatively thorough clearance. The diamond hands left behind are real diamond hands, and after countless ups and downs in the wallet, they still choose to keep them;
I guess the next crypto season will reward diamond hands;
Doge and PEPE will hit new highs;
ETH will break through the $5,000 cage;
We will see memecoins 🐸🐸 reaching hundreds of billions of dollars;
When PEPE truly broke through its ATH;
The market will once again have the power to control the diamonds;
At that time, the market will wash over time and redefine what a true memecoin meta is;
- The leaders become true models of wealth creation and can weather cycles;
- Numerous projects are reconstructed and replicated, and assets with independent community attributes can be produced;
- Continuously attracting new users and new assets to crypto;
- Each cycle can spark months of climax;
- Finally, leave behind infrastructure, user habits, and cultural assets;#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
今天咱来浅谈一下，谷歌这巨头的财报到底说明了什么，对咱币圈有啥影响?
谷歌母公司 Alphabet 交出了一份看似“无可挑剔”的成绩单。
营收、利润、云业务全部超预期，尤其是谷歌云收入达到 248亿美元，AI 基础设施需求依然强劲。
按理说，这种财报应该刺激股价上涨，但市场却给出了完全不同的答案——盘后股价一度下跌。
原因很简单：
市场现在已经不满足于增长故事，开始追问投入之后能赚多少钱。
这也是这份财报真正值得关注的地方。
过去几年，AI 最大的逻辑就是一句话：
“谁投入最多，谁就能赢得未来。”
所以微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta纷纷疯狂砸钱建设数据中心，采购GPU、存储芯片、电力资源。
而这一次，谷歌用449亿美元资本支出再次证明：
AI军备竞赛还没有结束，甚至还在加速，毫无疑问，AI就是风向！
这对于产业链来说无疑是利好。
比如：
高端存储芯片需求继续增加；
GPU供应链持续受益；
数据中心、电力、服务器相关企业仍有成长空间。
所以财报公布后，SK海力士、美光、闪迪等“卖铲子”的公司上涨，并不奇怪。
因为谷歌告诉市场：
AI的钱，还在继续烧。
但是问题也来了。
谷歌季度自由现金流转负，这意味着什么？
简单来说，就是公司赚的钱暂时覆盖不了AI基础设施投入。
投资者开始担心：
如果AI投入持续扩大，但商业回报没有同步增长，这场烧钱大战还能持续多久？
这也是为什么市场没有继续奖励谷歌。
因为现在的投资逻辑已经从：
“AI有没有未来？”
变成：
“AI什么时候真正赚钱？”
这对于整个科技市场都是一个重要信号。
未来AI板块可能会出现明显分化：
真正拥有商业化能力、现金流稳定的公司，会继续获得资金追捧。
而单纯依靠AI概念、靠高投入讲故事的公司，可能会面临估值压力。
对于币圈来说，这份财报同样值得关注。
AI和加密市场有一个共同点：
都属于高成长、高预期资产。
当市场相信未来时，资金愿意给更高估值；
但当市场开始关注现金流和盈利兑现时，风险偏好就会下降。
短期来看：
如果AI资本开支继续扩大，算力、基础设施相关赛道依然受益。
但另一方面，如果未来市场开始担心科技巨头减少投入，那么高估值成长资产可能迎来压力，包括部分AI概念币和高波动山寨币。
所以这份谷歌财报释放出的核心信号是：
AI故事没有结束，但市场可不会等你！
以前资本市场奖励的是“敢投入”。
现在市场开始奖励的是：
“投入之后，能不能产生回报。”
对于交易者来说，最大的机会依然存在，但不能再盲目追逐概念。
AI这场战争还在继续，只是接下来拼的不再是谁烧钱最多，而是谁能最快把技术变成利润。 📊 In-depth analysis of the BTC and ETH markets on the evening of July 26
🔍 Macro Perspective: Next week will be a super macro week, with a concentrated release of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, GDP, and PCE inflation data. Currently, the mainstream market expects the Fed to pause rate hikes, and funds are still betting on rate cuts within the year. As long as the Fed does not send overly hawkish signals, expectations for liquidity easing will continue to support the crypto market. Geopolitical conditions remain moderate for now, with no sustained negative shocks; the overall environment is relatively favorable for risk assets.
📈 Technical Perspective: BTC and ETH are currently steadily rising based on the moving average system, with all time-period moving averages maintaining a bullish alignment. The recent pullback is a short-term consolidation with solid support below. As long as the key support level is not effectively broken, once this round of range accumulation is complete, buyer momentum is expected to surge again, pushing prices above the resistance zone.
💡 Trading strategy (for reference only, not investment advice): BTC has strong support in the $63,500-$64,000 range. If this range holds, the target is $67,000, and after a valid breakout, the next target is $69,000. ETH has clear support in the $1800-$1850 area, with a target of $1940, and a breakout above $2100.
The market is currently in a gathering phase before choosing a direction, and attention should be paid to the confirmation of direction after next week's macro data is released.Gate的意思是：我们按照合同约定付的100000usdt和800,000 ALD到了“骗子”钱包的同时，恰巧Gate的alpha自动抓取了ALD代币，然后不能公开谁对接上币对接流程，最后骗子钱包转进了Gate alpha进行空投，是这样的吗？
哈希在这里，答案在这里
当一个项目付了钱、上了币、然后被告知“跟你沟通的人不是我们的人，并且项目登陆Gate”——这已经是Gate的公信力问题了100000 USDT、800000 ALD转入骗子钱包，恰好被Gate Alpha抓取，后续转入Gate Alpha空投。
哈希可查。
付费成功上币后，Gate称对接人不是员工。
项目顺利登陆Gate，公信力谁来负责？Want to ask Gate: Are the facts as you describe?
The 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD paid by our side first flowed into third-party wallets, after which Gate Alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens. The platform refused to disclose the personnel and process for this listing, and the assets were then transferred from third-party wallets to Gate Alpha for airdrop.
All transfer hashes are traceable, and evidence is publicly available for verification.
After the project completed payment and successfully went live for trading, the platform unilaterally claimed that the communication and liaison personnel were external scammers.
The project ultimately successfully listed on Gate Exchange. This explanation alone cannot dispel all doubts; this matter has seriously damaged Gate's market credibility. We demand a transparent and complete official response.Gate's statement: The 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD we paid first went into the scammer's wallet. Coincidentally, Gate Alpha automatically captured ALD tokens, and the platform refused to publicly link the token listing link. The wallet then transferred the funds to Gate Alpha for the airdrop.
On-chain hashes are the evidence.
Only after the project is paid and successfully launched does the platform claim that the person contacting them is not an internal employee.
The project has successfully launched on Gate. The essence of this whole incident is a major issue of Gate's credibility. Please provide a reasonable explanation!We paid 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD according to the contract, and the funds were first transferred to the so-called "scammer's" wallet. Coincidentally, Gate Alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens, and the platform refused to disclose the complete listing process; Subsequently, the wallet transfers assets into Gate Alpha for airdrops.
On-chain hash records are displayed on the chain, making the truth clear at a glance.
Only after the project has paid the full fees and successfully completed the launch will the platform inform us that the person we connected with throughout the process is not an internal Gate employee.
The successful listing of the project on Gate Exchange is already a done deal. This explanation is hard to reconcile and seriously damages Gate's own credibility. We look forward to the official clear and direct response to all doubts.Brothers, have you all gotten some of SanDisk's little meats?
I told you, bottom-fishing is no problem, haha.
Let's get to the point—SNDK set an early ambush and got a little meat in hand. Here's the screenshot, check for yourself: 1479.27, today +1.09%.
Don't rush to say, "Is that all?" "—You have to see what happened yesterday. At the close of U.S. stocks on Friday, SanDisk plunged 10.79%, SK Hynix dropped 8.81%, and the entire memory chip sector was in turmoil. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 4.25% in a single day. The entire internet is shouting "Storage has peaked" and "The AI bubble has burst."
And then? Today, SNDKUSDT has taken it back directly.
That's the price difference we get here.
---
How to view the market?
Let's start with the news side. The trigger for Friday's sharp drop was a report from Morgan Stanley analysts warning that "the AI-driven storage industry carnival is approaching a turning point." At the same time, analyst Susquehanna lowered SanDisk's price target from $3,250 to $3,050.
Sounds pretty scary, right? But if you look closely—the target price is 3050, which still has 80% upside compared to the current price. Moreover, Wall Street's overall rating for SanDisk remains a "strong buy," with 21 out of 24 analysts giving a buy rating and an average target price of $2,368.
Now, let's talk about fundamentals. SanDisk's third-quarter revenue was $5.95 billion, a year-on-year surge of 251%, with gross margin soaring to 78.4%. The company's enterprise SSD revenue grew 233% quarter-on-quarter, and data center revenue soared 645% year-on-year. Goldman Sachs directly raised the target price from $1,200 to $2,200.
A company that made 6 billion in a quarter with a 78% gross margin—if it drops 10%, do you think it's over?
The technical aspects are clearer. Looking at the chart, the middle band of the BOLL20 is at 1469.84, the upper band at 1496.87, and the lower band at 1442.81. Today, the price pulled directly from the low back above the middle band, with a 24-hour low of 1438.68 and now at 1479.27—very clear bottom support. Earlier, it fell from a high of 2373, hitting a low near 1490, a drop of 900 points. A pullback at this level is either a trend reversal or a violent shakeout.
Which do you guys think it is?
---
Direction and strategy
Direction: Go long on pullbacks, go with the trend.
SNDK has risen 858% in just half a year. This level of trend won't be completely ruined by a single Morgan Stanley report. The imbalance between supply and demand for memory chips will continue until 2027, but the basic logic of expansion in AI servers and data centers remains unchanged. The drop is because the price has risen too much and needs to be digested, not because the company is failing.
Specific strategy:
· Entry section: Arranged in batches near 1445-1460
· First target: 1508
· Second target: 1549-1570
· Stop loss: below 1365
Don't hold too many positions; keep stop-loss in line with perpetual contracts. This wave is so volatile, a single needle could prick you out.
---
Trading insights
Here are a few honest points:
First, the news needs to be viewed from the other side. When the whole internet is panicked, opportunities often arise; when FOMO is everywhere, that is risk. On Friday, the storage sector plunged collectively, with headlines from various media outlets becoming increasingly alarming—at times like this, it's actually better to calmly think: Has the fundamentals changed? No change. So what is the drop? It's emotions.
Second, don't go against trends. SNDK rose 858% in half a year, but there will definitely be a pullback in between. But if you insist on shorting at this level of trend, how is that any different from catching a flying knife? Go long with the trend, buying in batches on pullbacks—it's ten thousand times more comfortable than guessing the top and bottom-fishing.
Third, confirm both technical and fundamental factors before taking action. The logic behind this ambush is simple: fundamentals are intact + price has returned to near the lower Bollinger band + previous lows provide support. Once all three conditions are met, just get to work.
Fourth, and most importantly—unity of knowledge and action. If you pick the right spot, you don't dare to go up; if you do, you can't hold on; if you do, you're afraid of falling. This is the fundamental reason most people don't make money. Once the strategy is set, just execute it—don't scare yourself.
---
That's all for today. This round wasn't huge, but the timing was right. Later, SNDK has its August 5 earnings report, and Stargate's enterprise SSD product line is about to recognize revenue for the first time—the big show is just beginning.
Brothers, let's chat in the comments—did you get a taste of this round?
$ETH $ETH
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress Luckily, I cut my losses last night, otherwise I'd have to wake up with Green Hair in the morning
Liquidation
BTC · safe haven
As of today (July 27, 2026) at 08:15, Bitcoin is trading at $65,228.8, with a 24-hour increase of 0.70%. The core driving force behind this round of rally comes from a significant easing in geopolitical tensions. On the news front, U.S. President Trump has suspended military strikes against Iran, leaving room for diplomatic negotiations. Iran stated that as long as the U.S. stops its military strikes, Iran will also cease its military operations. Boosted by this, the three major U.S. stock index futures in the Asia-Pacific market surged across the board at the opening, with precious metals and cryptocurrency markets strengthening collectively. Bitcoin rebounded above around $64,150 over the weekend and broke further above the $65,000 mark early this morning. From a technical perspective, BTC has turned the $64,000 area into strong support, with no 4-hour close below this level in the past three days. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of over $465 million on Thursday and Friday, but geopolitical factors effectively offset this selling pressure. In the short term, if optimism persists at the US market open, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the resistance range between $67,000 and $68,000. On the on-chain data front, whale addresses saw increased net inflows yesterday, with buying pressure defending key support. Overall, the cooling of geopolitical risks has provided Bitcoin with a temporary window for a rebound, but whether it can sustain its upward trend still depends on whether trading volume can be effectively amplified. $BTC $ETH #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard