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Don't rush to see CPI as a positive: The door to a September rate hike is just not fully closed
After the CPI release, many people's first reaction was: inflation didn't explode, the September rate hike is likely off, and the crypto market should rebound.
I actually think it's too early to celebrate now.
It's certainly good that the data didn't add fuel to inflation.
But core inflation is still above target, and the Federal Reserve can't lock in all future options just because of a "meet expectations" data point.
What's more critical is the market.
$BTC has now returned to around 63,400, with a 24-hour high of 64,496 and a low of 63,309.
After the CPI release, 64,500 didn't hold.
This shows the market is willing to temporarily not fear rate hikes, but is not yet willing to pay in advance for "rate cuts and liquidity return."
So the current logic is not:
CPI didn't explode → directly bullish.
But rather:
CPI didn't explode → the worst-case scenario is delayed, next we continue to watch core inflation, employment, and subsequent policy pricing.
I will watch two levels:
Only if 64,500 is firmly reclaimed does it indicate the market starts to accept this data.
If 63,300 is broken again, it means even this CPI buffer can't support the market.
Don't misread "not worse" as "already better."
What the market fears now is not CPI.
It's that even after CPI passes, the buying power still refuses to return.
$BTC $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 $XAU Despite the US July CPI growth slowing to 3.4% and the market's expectations for a rate hike in September cooling down, Bitcoin did not rise as a result. The core reasons are:
· Positive factors already priced in: The market had previously partially priced in the expectation of CPI slowing, so the "as expected" result lacked additional surprise.
· Sentiment remains cautious: The Fear and Greed Index shows the market is in the "fear" zone (27-36 points), with funds waiting for clearer signals. $BTC $ETH Today’s Quick News:
U.S. core CPI met expectations, supporting the Fed to stay put; Singapore’s Temasek targets a storage giant in South Korea; DeepSeek and Grok spark a price war
💥 Key Catalysts:
U.S. July CPI met expectations, showing that the drag from energy is narrowing, goods have rebounded, and housing remains soft—indicating no widespread signs of a renewed acceleration. Temasek plans its first direct investment into South Korea’s stock market, targeting Samsung and SK hynix. DeepSeek and Grok both launched flagship models, driving model integration and token adoption by cutting prices.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Expected CPI solidifies the Fed’s wait-and-see: Calm inflation gives the Fed room to hold steady, even though a credibility gap keeps U.S. Treasury yields elevated. What to watch: U.S.-Iran talks, oil prices, and Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August.2️⃣ Sovereign capital backs storage recovery: Temasek’s move into Samsung and SK hynix confirms that the storage sector has bottomed out, helping new-cloud and South Korean storage stocks rebound.
3️⃣ Token price war speeds up adoption: Although the cloud ROI debate is still ongoing, price competition is accelerating model penetration. Sentiment is stabilizing, but volatility remains high.
$SKHYNIX $SAMSUNG $TSM $OKB 在3月5日触及124美元后一路回落，最低跌至65.76美元。时隔五个月，它再次突破100美元关口，现报103.50美元，24小时涨幅8.53%。 从124到65，再到103——这条价格曲线，浓缩了OKB叙事从狂热到冷却再到重燃的全过程。 3月5日的124美元：ICE入股点燃的“消息牛” 3月5日，纽约证券交易所母公司洲际交易所（ICE）宣布以250亿美元估值入股OKX少数股权。消息一出，OKB从约77美元急速拉升，盘中触及124美元高位，24小时振幅超过50%。 那一天的逻辑很清晰： ICE是华尔街的象征，其入股被视为对OKX的顶级信用背书 OKB作为平台代币，直接受益于市场对OKX估值的重估 叠加此前2025年8月销毁后2100万枚的“通缩叙事”，情绪共振推至高潮 124到65：利好出尽，一地鸡毛 但ICE入股的催化剂是一次性消息，不是持续的基本面改善。 利好兑现后，获利盘蜂拥而出。OKB从124美元高位迅速回落，随后一路下行，最低触及65.76美元。 五个月，腰斩过半。 这段下跌的核心原因是：ICE入股改变了市场对OKX的估值，但没有改变OKB的供需结构。 2100万枚的【Blockchain Asset Morning Report｜August 13】
BTC $64,050｜ETH $1,905
🔥 Market Today
BTC is back near 64,000.
It just dropped below yesterday, but pulled back today, indicating neither bulls nor bears want to let go of this level.
However, one data point looks unfavorable:
On August 12, BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $46.79 million, marking two consecutive days of capital outflow.
I won’t chase longs until 65,000 is reclaimed.
ETH is actually a bit interesting, performing slightly stronger than BTC today.
If ETH/BTC continues to strengthen, I’ll be more inclined to favor ETH than now.
😈 Altcoins
The top 50 by market cap still show localized trends today.
Leading gainers include PUMP, Canton, CRV, but overall profit-taking remains moderate.
There’s no widespread sell-off on the downside either.
⸻
📰 Highlights Today
① US July CPI released
US July CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, in line with expectations.
The market hasn’t seen major volatility for now; BTC remains near $64,000.
② SEC to discuss first major Crypto rule tomorrow
SEC has scheduled a public meeting on August 14 to discuss new crypto regulatory rules, worth watching.
US crypto regulation is entering the real "rule-making" phase.
③ Securitize’s first earnings report after listing
This BlackRock-affiliated RWA company reported Q2 revenue of $14.4 million, down 5% year-over-year, with net loss widening to $21.7 million.
Looks like the RWA story is big, but business isn’t that easy.
④ BTC ETF net outflows for two consecutive days
After a strong inflow round earlier, funds are now diverging again.
So don’t just look at "weekly net inflows,"
whether short-term funds keep buying is the key to whether prices can continue rising.
⸻
🧠 My View
Still cautious today.
If BTC can’t hold 65,000, I won’t chase.
Instead, I’ll focus on ETH.
Because if the next rally really comes,
I tend to think:
BTC stabilizes first, ETH moves first, and altcoins profit last.
Be patient. DYOR 🚨The Fed rate hike expectations have completely faded!!!
In just one month, market expectations have completely reversed—from worrying about whether to continue raising rates in September to betting on the next easing cycle.
Data forces the shift: July CPI year-on-year at 3.4%, core CPI at 2.5%, combined with weakening employment data, the probability of the Fed holding steady in September has risen to about 64%.
Core capital logic: The market does not trade on "rate cuts not happening when rates fall," but races ahead on "whether future liquidity will ease."
Liquidity transmission chain
Fed rate hike expectations fade
👇
Dollar under pressure + U.S. Treasury yields fall
👇
Risk appetite rises (BTC, U.S. growth stocks, and gold see capital inflows)
Key logic for BTC
BTC has never feared "high interest rates," but rather the expectation of "tighter conditions that are more expensive and longer lasting." Now that this constraint is loosening, valuation pressure is greatly relieved.
Three monitoring indicators going forward
Dollar Index
U.S. Treasury yields
BTC capital flows
If all three turn simultaneously, it not only means "pause in rate hikes in September," but also signals that big money has started to race ahead for the next easing cycle.
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
After watching Elon Musk's speech at the SpaceX all-hands meeting, honestly, I was a bit shocked.
In most people's fixed impression, SpaceX is rockets, Starlink, Starship—a hardcore aerospace company. But Musk directly threw out a very disruptive judgment: in five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX's company value.
According to his plan, AI revenue will surpass all other businesses by this September; the goal is to reach 10 gigawatts of computing power by the end of next year, with an expected annual revenue of $300–500 billion. He also proposed the "ground training, space inference" approach, aiming to package Starship's transport capacity, Starlink network, and AI computing power into a complete infrastructure.
This is no longer just aerospace; it binds space internet and large model computing power together, opening up a whole new realm of imagination.
However, after calming down and thinking it over, all of this belongs to management's predictions, with a significant element of wishful thinking. The market's focus is also shifting: no longer just watching rocket launch frequency or Starlink's cash flow, but starting to question a realistic issue—can the AI business really support the current valuation? Massive capital spending to expand computing power, huge capital expenditures, and various risks in implementation—has the current price already priced in all the positives in advance?
The capital market's reaction is also interesting; related tokens rose in the short term, but the underlying asset's market fluctuated wildly, with performance expectations maxed out, yet the market repeatedly tugged back and forth, and momentum began to weaken after the rebound.
The vision is grand, but a grand goal does not equal realization. The story is certainly attractive, but risks cannot be ignored. While watching the show, we must distinguish between vision and reality. Yesterday, $APR surged significantly. Within a single day, it had already doubled, and now it seemed like it was about to become a demon. For these monster coins, my strategy has always been to go short but not short and to buy long on dips. However, yesterday I went against my strategy and shorted this coin, and now I'm stuck in it. It's okay, I think it will pull back to the position where I opened my position, and I still have a chance to break even. If $APR keeps doubling at my opening position, I might be about to be liquidated. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract open interest dropped sharply this morning, while the long-short ratio of the contract is rising. If we look at the candlestick chart at that time, we'll find that a needle was inserted back then. This indicates that many major shorts have already been exposed at that level. After inserting the needle, the price of $APR continued to rise, with some short positions exploding. However, from the contract data trends, it can be seen that both the quantity and quality of exposed short positions are far less than those during the insertion. This shows that at this level, the profit from a short break is already very small. Let's take a look at the contract data for a longer period. It can be seen that its contract open interest is gradually increasing, while the long-short ratio first falls and then rises. This indicates that during the rise, not only have many bears accumulated, but a considerable portion of the bulls have also accumulated. These bulls will create some resistance to the rise, I thinkLet's start with the conclusion. If you still think of $BICO as an old project for "account abstraction and gas-free users," it's easy to miss the real changes that have happened over the past year. Biconomy is attempting to migrate from the Account Abstraction infrastructure to a higher-level Universal Execution Layer—the Universal On-Chain Execution Layer. Accounts, Gas, cross-chain, DEX routing, Intent, and AI Agent execution—these previously relatively fragmented modules are being repackaged into a unified execution infrastructure. If this is done, the valuation logic of $BICO will change. But I want to put another point first: Biconomy's biggest problem now is no longer whether the product has value, but how much of that value can actually be passed on to $BICO. This determines whether it is just a small-cap old coin easily driven by themes, or an asset with a chance to re-enter the infrastructure valuation system. Why has the market suddenly regained its $BICO recently? As of August 13, $BICO price was around $0.032, with intraday volatility still very volatile. In early August, $BICO even saw a rapid single-day surge of over 70% due to new perpetual contract market entries, but then clearly pulled back. This price action is important. What it tells us is not that "fundamentals suddenly improved by 70%", but ratherNebius surges today by +35% and has already gained +77% in just two weeks.
▌Three factors driving the rise:
➫ Leopold Aschenbrenner, who made $20 billion in one year, cut in at the lowest point—$NBIS was one of his largest holdings.
➫ Nebius just reported revenue of $582.3 million. Riding the explosive growth of its AI cloud business, its revenue surged by 514%, and—backed by an aggressive expansion fueled by more than $40 billion in outstanding orders—it has moved into the ranks of the world’s leading AI compute service providers.
➫ Michael Burry has just disclosed that he increased his short position in Nebius
$NBIS CPI数据一出，9月加息概率从55%直接砸到40%，美股期货全线飘红——我盯着屏幕笑了半天，确认了一件事：市场这头"大猪"终于开始踩踏板了，而你要做的，就是当那头在旁边等着吃的小猪。 📊 先说CPI：数据稳了，加息悬了 8月12日，美国劳工统计局公布了7月CPI数据： · 整体CPI环比+0.1%，6月可是-0.4%（六年来首次月度下降）；同比+3.4%，低于6月的3.5% · 核心CPI（剔除食品能源）环比+0.2%，同比+2.5%，追平2021年3月以来最低增速 所有数据与经济学家预期完全一致。 数据一出，CME FedWatch的9月加息概率直接从55%砸到40.1%，维持利率不变的概率飙到59.9%。2年期美债收益率应声下跌。 一句话：通胀在降温，美联储9月大概率不动了。 🐷 智猪模型：为什么散户最好的策略是"等" 智猪博弈是博弈论里最经典的案例之一： 一个猪圈里有一头大猪和一头小猪，食槽一头有个踏板，踩一下就有10份食物掉下来。但踩踏板要付出2份食物的成本。 · 如果大猪踩：大猪吃到6份，小猪吃到4份（大猪净赚4，小猪净赚4） · 如果小猪踩：小猪跑回来时食物已被大猪吃完$BTC $ETH July's CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, fully in line with expectations. No surprises or shocks. Both the US S&P and Nasdaq gave positive feedback, but BTC didn't follow at all. It moved a bit lower. What does this mean? It shows that the old logic of macro data is weakening its driving force for Bitcoin. CME's interest rate tool shows the probability of holding rates steady in September jumped from 50.1% to 59.9%, while the probability of a rate hike dropped to 40.1%. Look, the market is clearly leaning dovish, but BTC just isn't buying it Funds are now more focused on the internal structure of crypto, not betting on macro directions. Looking at on-chain data, spot buying has clearly shrunk these days. The inflow rate of major wallets has slowed. Contract positions are still piling up, but the proportion of long positions keeps shrinking. To put it bluntly, there's no new story to tell on the macro level, so funds are returning to a state of stock competition. There's still PPI tonight, but the impact probably won't be significant. The core issue for BTC right now isn't inflation data, but how long has the 65,000 line been holding down? It can't push higher, and the lower limit won't break through Grinding People to the Point of Losing Temper, Macro Economy Returns to Neutrality, Bitcoin Must Find Its Own Direction #July CPI Steadily Landed, September Rate Hike Expectations Cool #财报观察员: AI Infrastructure Earnings Debut One After Another #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% DON'T MISTAKE A QUIET MARKET FOR A LACK OF OPPORTUNITY
Many investors believe crypto has lost momentum because prices remain in a tight range.
But beneath the surface, today's market tells a different story.
Institutional capital—not retail FOMO—is driving the narrative.
Over the past week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $853 million in net inflows. Yet $BTC has not broken out decisively because profit-taking and institutional distribution continue absorbing buying pressure.
At the same time, the latest U.S. CPI came in broadly in line with expectations, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. That has eased pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
This is why I believe the current market is about portfolio positioning, not chasing the next 20% move.
If I were building a long-term portfolio today, my focus would be on:
$BTC — The primary destination for institutional capital and the foundation of any long-term portfolio.
$ETH — Positioned to benefit if ETF inflows remain strong and on-chain activity continues to recover.
$SOL — One of the most active Layer-1 ecosystems, with the potential to outperform if liquidity rotates into large-cap altcoins.
$LINK — A leading infrastructure project as tokenized real-world assets and blockchain adoption continue to expand.
$OKB — Worth monitoring as exchange ecosystems grow through new products, trading activity, and broader utility.
The most important indicators over the coming weeks won't be price alone.
Watch whether ETF inflows remain resilient, whether the Fed maintains a patient stance, and whether liquidity begins rotating from $BTC into high-quality altcoins.
Markets rarely reward those waiting for perfect certainty.
They reward those who prepare before the next major trend becomes obvious.
If you had $100 to invest every month starting today, which crypto asset would receive the largest allocation in your portfolio?
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
#IBITCutsBTCThreshold
$BTC
$ETH Everyone in the market has experienced the pain of unrealized losses; short-term volatility really tests one's mindset, but I am optimistic about SpaceX in the long term.
Referencing the latest Q2 financial report: Starlink is already a stable cash business with 12 million subscribers, and orders from enterprises and governments continue to grow, enabling sustained cash flow. In July, the 13th test flight of Starship successfully deployed the Starlink V3 satellites, moving from airborne testing to payload validation. The 14th test flight at the end of August aims for tower catch recovery. Coupled with the company's hundred-billion-level cash reserves and AI computing power expansion plans, the entire long-term roadmap is clear.
After the earnings release, the stock price pulled back in the short term, essentially due to market concerns over high capital expenditures. But looking over a longer period, Musk's strategy of "Starlink cash flow + Starship cost reduction + AI computing power expansion" is hard to replicate.
I am willing to endure short-term fluctuations and bet on this long-term track to gradually realize value, maintaining a long-term bullish view on SpaceX. $SPCX $SNDK #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled down. After the July CPI release, the market clearly breathed a sigh of relief. 3.4% year-on-year, core CPI 2.5% year-on-year, basically in line with market expectations. There was no renewed acceleration, nor any surprises that forced the Fed to tighten further. Thus, the most direct transaction occurred: the probability of further rate hikes in September decreased, short-term U.S. Treasury yields retreated, gold fell first and then rose, and $BTC continued to fluctuate at high levels. Many people's first reaction is: inflation has dropped, the Fed is not raising interest rates, which is good news for $BTC. This logic is correct, but only half of it is said. From a trading perspective, the greatest significance of this CPI is not to tell us that a bull market is coming, but to temporarily rule out the most dangerous left-tail risk—the Fed turning hawkish again. In other words, the market is not getting an attack signal now, but a ticket to stay at the table. What truly determines $BTC next trend is not the word rate cut, but three more important factors. The first signal is whether long-term rates can truly come down. This is probably the most easily overlooked issue right now. The market keeps a close eye on the Fed every day, but for $BTC assets with long durations and highly liquidity-dependent valuations, the 10-year Treasury yield is sometimes more important than the federal funds rate. After the CPI cools, the 2-year yield is prone to falling, as it is trading the policy path of the Fed's upcoming meetings. But the 10-year term is different. The U.S. fiscal deficit#EarningsObserver: AI Infrastructure Earnings Take the Stage Trend: The bull market foundation remains, but the era of one-sided sharp rises is over, entering a phase of high volatility with new index highs and severe internal divergence.
Positive factors: AI leaders show strong profit resilience, high corporate profits, expectations of a soft economic landing, and market speculation on Fed rate cuts.
Risks: Overall valuations are high, US Treasury yields remain elevated causing disturbances; if rate cuts are delayed, rapid pullbacks are likely; most small and mid-cap stocks underperform the index.
Strategy: Prioritize computing power, cloud leaders, and high-dividend defensive sectors; avoid pure thematic concept stocks, do not chase highs, build positions in batches, and ordinary investors should prioritize broad-based indices.
BTC Bitcoin
Market: Oscillating in the $64,000‑$65,000 range, recently clearly underperforming US stocks, which hit new highs while BTC did not follow.
Drivers: Highly tied to Fed liquidity; ETF funds and whale accumulation provide bottom support; this US stock rally is driven by AI corporate profits, with limited spillover effect on crypto assets. The biggest common variables: Fed rates and US Treasury yields, with rate cut expectations being the common positive factor and high rates the common suppressor.
Current characteristics: US stocks are driven by corporate profits; BTC relies more on liquidity and market sentiment, and this structural US stock rally has not fully transmitted to the crypto market.
Risk resonance: If US stocks experience a sharp pullback, BTC is very likely to face pressure simultaneously. $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX surged over 7% intraday, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, with the 1-hour RSI spiking above 80. The price forcefully tore through the high volatility range, pushing short-term chips directly to the overbought edge. Whether it can hold above the 1140 level will determine the validity of the breakout; a pullback below the 1120 support would indicate that bullish momentum is exhausted. If it breaks below the 1090 defense line, the high-level price structure will be completely invalidated. Subsequent observation is needed on the moving average support strength and the supply expansion expectations battle.
#Lumentum营收翻倍，AI光通信需求延续 #黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 #芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22%$HYPE HYPE Holds at $56, Fundamentals Turn Positive
Recent positive developments for Hyperliquid:
· Earnings: Hyperion DeFi Q2 net profit hit **$31M**, doubling QoQ. HYPE holdings grew from $71M to $133M.
· Institutional accumulation: Bitwise keeps buying HYPE, with ETF net inflows over $5M this week — no sell-offs.
· Regulatory upside: Lobbying CFTC to launch perpetual futures in the US, which could unlock a massive market.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
Recently, a batch of AI infrastructure earnings reports have come out in quick succession, and reading through them brings mixed feelings.
Many companies show really impressive revenue figures; Lumentum, CoreWeave, and AMD all posted revenue growth exceeding 90%, Nebius is even more extreme with Q2 revenue soaring 454% year-over-year, Coherent's performance guidance also exceeded expectations, and Cisco's full-year revenue and profits are both growing in double digits.
Looking at the data, everything seems red-hot, but the market no longer seems to be paying purely for high growth.
There is a very practical point right in front of us: the capital expenditures everyone is throwing out are extremely high. Nebius alone spent $5.7 billion in capital expenditures in just one quarter. Even with better-than-expected results, Coherent still dropped 8% in after-hours trading.
Generating revenue is one thing, but whether the high expansion costs can ultimately translate into solid, sustainable profits is what the market cares about most right now.
Next up is the earnings report from Applied Materials, to see if semiconductor equipment demand can hold steady.
It feels like the margin for error in the AI infrastructure sector is shrinking; it’s no longer a phase where growth alone can drive stock prices up. Going forward, valuation pricing and profits will be the most important evaluation criteria.
What do you think about this wave of AI infrastructure earnings? Will you continue to be optimistic about this sector? #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
Let's talk about Apple testing Changxin memory chips. Many people only see the hype of "domestic entry into Apple's supply chain," but there are quite a few real obstacles inside.
Currently, it is only at the testing and preliminary negotiation stage; formal adoption is still uncertain. The biggest external variable is the approval from the U.S. government.
Apple's original intention is very pragmatic: to break the supply pattern dominated by Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, and gain bargaining power.
But Changxin's stance has exceeded many people's expectations. It is rumored online that they do not accept Apple's price cuts and price their products on par with overseas major manufacturers.
The core reason is that domestic phone manufacturers have already locked in a large amount of capacity, with orders full, so they do not need to sacrifice profits to gain entry.
Assuming future cooperation is realized, the DRAM supply and demand and the market share of memory manufacturers will undergo changes. But for now, everything belongs to market expectations; stock price trends are more driven by sentiment. Any problem in testing progress, procurement scale, or regulation will directly cause expectations to fall through.
Do you think Changxin will ultimately enter Apple's supply chain? Breaking news!! The bottom of the bear market is slowly emerging!
So far this month, 12 days total: 11 days of taking profits, 1 day of stop loss.
I'm Brother Ci, going straight to the conclusion: the bottom of the BTC bear market is at $54,000.
Technical analysis: two independent patterns both point to $54,000.
The 4-hour rounded top and the daily bear flag breakdown both independently target around $54,000. When BTC broke below the $60,000 mark, these two structures were triggered simultaneously, reinforcing the evidence of bearish pressure. After the 4-hour rounded top breakdown, projecting the vertical distance from the rounded top to the neckline downward lands just below $54,000.
The monthly MACD has already touched the zero line. Historically, the zero line on the monthly chart marks the adjustment low range for each bear market cycle. This is not an arbitrary line; it reflects over a decade of cyclical patterns.
On-chain data: $54,000 is the convergence point of multiple cost lines.
BTC's realized price currently ranges between $53,000 and $54,000. Realized price represents the average cost of all bitcoins at their last movement. When the price approaches this level, overall market profit pressure increases, often coinciding with panic, accumulation, and bottom formation.
The 1.0x baseline of the MVRV valuation band is also near $54,000. Over the past decade, BTC bear market bottoms have appeared between 1.0x and 0.8x MVRV valuation bands. Miners' production costs are roughly between $55,000 and $56,000. Technical support, realized price, MVRV compression, and miner costs form a highly structural support zone near $54,000.
Institutional views: $54,000 is the lower edge of the consensus range.
Multiple institutions list $53,000 to $54,000 as a key bottom area. Galaxy Digital's realized price baseline scenario is between $51,000 and $54,000. Fidelity expects a support range of $60,000 to $75,000, Bernstein projects a bottom around $60,000, with $54,000 marking the lower edge of this consensus range. Citi, NYDIG, CryptoQuant, and others also concentrate key support levels near $53,000 to $54,000.
Some analysts offer lower forecasts, including Galaxy Research's baseline scenario of $40,000 to $46,000 and CryptoQuant's extreme MVRV level at $43,000. These scenarios often correspond to MVRV dropping to 0.8x extreme levels or prolonged recessionary pressure.
Even the most pessimistic institutions acknowledge that $54,000 is the most critical defensive position in the current cycle. Given the current macro environment and ETF capital inflows, a deep break below $54,000 would require a systemic financial crisis, which is not the baseline scenario.
Macro perspective: end of the rate hike cycle, bottoming logic is forming.
Grayscale research head Zach Pandl clearly states that if the Fed stops raising rates and the economy remains stable, the BTC bear market may already be over. BTC's correlation with macroeconomic factors is strengthening, meaning once macro headwinds reverse, BTC will reach a true bottom. The current Fed rate hike cycle is nearing its end, and market pricing for a September rate hike has significantly cooled. Once the rate hike cycle is confirmed over, BTC's bottoming logic will activate.
$54,000 is not doomsday, it's an opportunity.
BTC has retraced about 50% from its historical high, much shallower than the typical 75% to 85% bear market drops. Institutional demand, ETFs, and corporate treasury allocations are changing BTC's downside depth. The bottom may not be as sharp as before, but the structural support forming near $54,000 deserves more respect than any candlestick.
If the price really reaches $54,000, it's not time to panic, it's time to act.
Brother Ci is done. Think it over. #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 $BTC $ETH $SNDK Tonight's CPI, will BTC really be the first to move? Don't rush.👀
Many people focus on BTC and rush in as soon as the data is released, but the real macro capital transmission often doesn't start with BTC.
If tonight's CPI is higher than expected, the first reaction usually comes from the US dollar and US Treasury yields, followed by gold, and finally BTC.
The reason is simple: the US dollar and US Treasuries are the deepest liquidity markets globally. Once CPI is released, the market immediately reprices the Fed's rate cut expectations, with the 2-year Treasury yield and DXY often experiencing sharp fluctuations first.
Gold follows because it is priced in dollars and has no interest income. When the dollar and real yields rise quickly, the opportunity cost of holding gold also increases.
So why might BTC lag behind?
Because BTC's macro pricing is still largely influenced by dollar liquidity, the Nasdaq, and overall risk appetite. Traditional markets complete the first round of pricing, and risk sentiment then transmits to the crypto market through capital and algorithms.
So if tonight's CPI truly "surprises high," I won't short BTC at the very first second at 8:30 PM.
First watch the DXY, then the 2-year Treasury yield.
If the dollar continues to strengthen, Treasury yields surge, and US stock index futures keep weakening, then BTC's downward pressure may just be starting to release.
What’s really worth trading is often not the exact second the data is released, but whether the trend is confirmed after the first round of market reaction.
#TonightCPIRelease, will September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #CPI #BTC #Bitcoin #Macro
#DailyOrbit The Fear and Greed Index remains around 26, but $BTC and ETH have not simultaneously broken down, and this divergence carries more information than simple panic. Since August, the sentiment indicator has mostly been stuck between 26 and 32. Normally, such readings correspond to active position reductions, increased volatility, and a downward shift in price levels. However, over the past 30 days, BTC has still risen by 2.03%, and $ETH has increased by 6.91%. The price has not fallen along with the sentiment, indicating that the market is more likely in a phase of "low sentiment recovery" rather than the start of a new downtrend.
BTC has remained relatively stable within the fear zone, which means long-term capital has not been easily shaken out by the sentiment indicator. For institutions, what truly matters is not the fear index reading but liquidity expectations, the US dollar trend, and whether ETF funds are experiencing sustained deterioration. As long as these conditions do not tighten further, BTC consolidating amid low-level panic can be understood as a sign of selling pressure exhaustion. It may not rise immediately, but at least it shows that few are currently willing to exit at any cost.
ETH’s stronger gains reveal another layer of signal: the market has begun to test the return of risk appetite. ETH is more sensitive to liquidity and trading sentiment and usually outperforms BTC when capital is willing to increase risk exposure. Therefore, if the fear index later rises from the low 20s back above 35 into the neutral zone, ETH’s resilience will likely be stronger than BTC’s. Conversely, if the index falls below 20, extreme panic will again overwhelm the recovery logic, and BTC may still perform more bearishly resistant than ETH due to its lower volatility and stronger allocation attributes.
The core contradiction in the market right now is not whether sentiment is pessimistic enough, but whether pessimistic sentiment can still generate new selling pressure. Prices have already preemptively refused to follow the fear index downward, meaning the cost for bears to continue pressing is rising. But this is not yet a full reversal; before macro liquidity fully shifts to easing, capital is more likely to repair positions first rather than directly chase risk. What to watch next is whether ETH can continue to lead the rally as sentiment recovers and whether BTC can hold its ground during renewed panic. The former determines the rebound’s height, and the latter determines whether this round of recovery is truly effective.Break-even Challenge | Day 29 Live Trading Review
Initial Capital: 1500U
Current Account Net Value: 61U
1. Trade Review
Yesterday, $BTC showed a clear range-bound movement, with daily highs and lows fluctuating between 63280 and 64450. Following the swing trading strategy of buying low and selling high, most traders were able to secure decent profits. For those stuck in losing positions, a small position of 1%–3% can be used to test the waters, gradually lowering the cost basis and unwinding losses through repeated range fluctuations.
Key analysis of the recent continuous rise in SPCX: Recently, Elon Musk publicly stated that AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's overall value in the future. This completely reshaped the market’s valuation logic for SPCX, moving away from the aerospace rocket narrative to hype the space AI computing power sector. Coupled with the positive technical news of acquiring Cursor AI, this directly ignited market speculation and is the core reason for the recent sustained rally.
The initial round of unlocking negative news has fully played out, with no large-scale chip sell-off occurring. The negative sentiment has turned positive, with a large number of shorts being squeezed out, creating a short squeeze rally. Yesterday, the price surged to around 149 but consistently failed to break the strong resistance at 150, indicating heavy selling pressure at that level.
$SPCX is about to face a second round of unlocking, with ongoing selling pressure from original holders. There is a risk of a short-term decline in speculative enthusiasm at high levels. Intraday, small short positions can be tried within the 147–149 range, strictly controlling the risk-reward ratio, firmly avoiding heavy positions or holding through losses, and trading in line with market momentum.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $OKB broke through the $100 mark on August 13, 2026, currently priced at $101.8.
Before this round of increase, OKB had formed a continuous ascending triangle pattern for several weeks, accelerating upward after breaking through the $90–92 resistance area. Around August 8, OKB's single-day increase exceeded 5%. In the derivatives market, futures trading volume rose to about $34.9 million, with open interest around $25.1 million. Both volume and price rose simultaneously, indicating new capital inflow.
Possible driving factors
Exchange OS ecosystem expectations: OKX previously released the Exchange OS whitepaper, which will decentralize trading capabilities such as matching and clearing to the protocol layer, allowing developers to build decentralized exchanges or prediction markets with one click. Since Exchange OS is based on the X Layer public chain, on-chain activities require consuming OKB as Gas fees. With a fixed supply of 21 million tokens, increased demand directly drives the price.
Technical breakout: OKB was previously constrained by the $98–103 supply zone. After breaking through this zone, it has become a key observation point. If it can hold above $103, the upward trend is expected to continue; if it is resisted and falls back, it may retest the $90–92 support range.
This breakthrough of $100 by OKB is more a result of the combined effect of technical breakout and ecosystem fundamental expectations. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether OKB can stabilize above the $98–103 supply zone and the actual progress of the Exchange OS ecosystem implementation.Inflation is cooling down, but why is Bitcoin still "imprisoned"?
On Wednesday night, when you saw the July CPI data, did you breathe a sigh of relief?
Year-on-year 3.4%, core CPI dropped to 2.5%, both meeting expectations. The probability of a rate hike in September fell sharply from nearly 50/50 to 38.1%.
"Good news is here, BTC should rise, right?"
Then you opened the candlestick chart—Bitcoin briefly surged to $64,400, then plummeted back to around $63,800.
What about gold? Spot gold rose over 1%, approaching $4,430.
Same CPI, gold surged, Bitcoin stayed flat.
You were confused.
Many people can’t understand: Inflation cooling = rate hike probability down = liquidity easing expectations = BTC bullish.
Is this logic chain wrong?
No, but only half right.
July CPI is indeed cooling—overall inflation dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%, core from 2.6% to 2.5%.
But looking deeper, it’s not that simple:
Housing costs contributed two-thirds of the monthly CPI increase. Rent and owners' equivalent rent are still rising.
Energy prices are still up 14.7% year-on-year. The impact of oil prices breaking $100 will only be fully reflected in August’s CPI.
Inflation is "cooling," but not "disappearing."
More importantly—the market has already played out the "inflation cooling" script in advance.
Before the CPI release, BTC had been consolidating near $64,000 for almost two weeks.
"Good news already priced in"—this is the truest reflection of the market after CPI.
A data point that meets expectations won’t push the market again. Only surprises can ignite the market.
What BTC faces now are two structural problems more troublesome than CPI.
04.
First problem: Long-term interest rates won’t come down.
Short-term US Treasury yields are indeed falling—because rate hike probability dropped.
But what about the 10-year Treasury yield? On Wednesday, the Treasury completed a $42 billion 10-year bond auction with a winning yield of 4.683%, the highest since 2007.
Why? The fiscal deficit pressure and term premium are pushing long-term rates up.
The fiscal year 2026 deficit is expected to approach $1.9 trillion. The Treasury is issuing bonds aggressively, and investors demand higher returns to buy them.
What does this mean?
Even if there’s no rate hike in September, long-term funding costs won’t fall. The 10-year Treasury yield staying above 4.6% is like a sword hanging over zero-coupon Bitcoin.
Short-term is loosened, long-term still shackled. BTC is like having handcuffs removed but still chained at the ankles—unable to move.
Second problem: BTC and gold have completely diverged.
Gold is up 9% this year, BTC down 11%.
Gold broke through $4,400, BTC fell below $64,000.
Peter Schiff bluntly said: Bitcoin is now "anti-gold."
Though it stings coming from a gold bull, the data is clear—gold rises, BTC falls; gold pulls back, BTC rebounds; gold keeps surging, BTC keeps falling.
The "digital gold" narrative has completely collapsed in this round of geopolitical conflict.
Why?
Gold is a pure defensive safe-haven asset—when war comes, sovereign funds and central banks rush in.
BTC is now classified by the market as a highly elastic risk asset—tied to the tech sector of US stocks. When geopolitical conflict arises, institutions’ first reaction is to buy gold and sell BTC to raise liquidity.
Want BTC to be a safe-haven asset? Sorry, the market doesn’t recognize it.
Sygnum Bank’s CIO said something that hits the core:
With inflation cooling and weakening employment, the Fed has more reasons not to hike—but the market now cares less about "when to stop hiking" and more about "when to start cutting."
Stopping hikes is a reprieve. Starting cuts is release.
What BTC has now is just a reprieve notice.
As long as the Fed stays on the "higher for longer" path, as long as the 10-year Treasury yield stays above 4.6%, and as long as institutions treat BTC as a risk asset rather than a safe haven—
BTC remains imprisoned.
So when can it get out?
Two signals, both necessary:
First, actual rate cuts. Not "no hikes," but "start cutting." When liquidity valves open, funds will flow from gold and Treasuries into risk assets.
Second, BTC must redefine its asset attribute. Whether by ETF inflows turning it into a "quasi-institutional asset," or by telling a new story based on scarcity after halving—this path is yet to be forged.
Until then—
Don’t treat "inflation cooling" as the starting gun for a bull market.
It only tells you: the death sentence is delayed. Not acquittal.
After CPI, BTC is still grinding between 63,000-64,000. When do you think it can truly break out?
$BTC $ETH $XAU #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Fundamental Research Report $AAVE / Aave (DeFi) $3.20
Straight to the point: Aave ($AAVE) overall score 49/100, rating Early-stage project, insufficient validation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been realized.
First, the project: Aave (token $AAVE), DeFi sector. Focused on lending leader, V4 version. Competitors include COMP, MKR. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users do not own their data. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background, company equity financing see PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales see whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration see API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (accounts for +3.50% of circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear buyback burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap, Aave $3.00B, COMP undisclosed, MKR undisclosed. FDV, Aave $4.20B, COMP undisclosed, MKR undisclosed. Annual revenue, Aave $2.00M, COMP undisclosed, MKR undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users, Aave undisclosed, COMP undisclosed, MKR undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation, circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Final judgment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 49/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overdrawn, FDV moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Focus later on: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
Fundamentals covered here, the rest is up to the market.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool down; #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession. #芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebounded over 22% in ten days.
Morning analysis: The night after CPI, $BTC and $ETH didn't collapse, but they also couldn't rise
After last night's CPI "buy expectations, sell facts" crash, BTC and ETH quieted down late at night.
BTC hit a low of 63,288 in the early morning, just 125 points away from the low of 63,163 three days ago, but it hasn't been broken. Then slowly climb back to 63,482. ETH hit a low of 1872 in the early morning, still $20 safe from the previous day's 1852, and has now returned to 1879. Both players have been narrowly consolidating above their respective lows, without further breakouts or decent rebounds.
This is the market state after CPI—neither panic nor excitement. The data fully met expectations, giving neither the bears a reason to increase their holdings nor the excuse for the bulls to turn things around. The three-day losing streak temporarily halted at the 63,163 level, but the bulls still couldn't muster the strength to push upward. The direction was stuck in midair.
Tonight at 8:30 PM is the PPI. This is a supplementary verification from CPI—if PPI also cools down, the chain of inflation cooling will be complete, and the market will further suppress rate hike expectations. BTC's 63,163 is very likely to hold. If the PPI rebounds, it means cost pressure is still being transmitted to the consumer side, and 63163 will face pressure again.
Key Levels: Below BTC, 63,163 is the life-or-death line for this round; if it breaks, target 62,800. The above 64,000 level was the level lost last night; only by holding back would it stabilize. Below ETH, 1872 is the early morning low, and 1852 is a hard bottom. Above 1900 is resistance.
Before tonight's PPI, it's highly likely to be a slowdown. Whether 63163 can hold its ground depends on tonight.#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes showed mixed gains and losses, appearing calm on the surface but with underlying turbulence:
· S&P 500 slightly rose 0.26%, closing at 7748.5 points, just a step away from the historical peak — this is a "last breath" short squeeze drama
· Nasdaq rose 0.54%, closing at 26588.48 points, with tech stocks silently brewing a counterattack
· Dow Jones slightly fell 0.04%, closing at 53770.27 points, marking the third consecutive day of decline — the "three consecutive declines" of traditional blue chips contrasts oddly with Nasdaq's stubbornness, indicating intense market repositioning
The real explosive point is the CPI.
July's overall CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, core CPI rose 2.5%, both hitting expectations and slightly down from June. This is not a groundbreaking drop, but at this "everything can cause panic" moment, the market chooses to interpret it as — the last breath of inflation is almost out.
Thus, FedWatch staged a dramatic reversal: the probability of maintaining rates unchanged in September surged from 45% a week ago to 60%. The market is directly signaling the Federal Reserve: "Don't move, I'll push prices up."
The craziest is the VIX — Wall Street's fear index plunged to 14.45, the lowest since January this year. Remember the "Black Monday" when VIX soared to 50 last August? Now the panic trades have vanished without a trace, and market sentiment has switched from "on edge" to "peace and prosperity."
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2. Direction Judgment: Short-term bullish bias but with three hidden concerns
Based on the above signals, the short-term direction is very clear —
Conclusion: oscillating with a bullish bias, the market has momentum to continue pushing up, but this is by no means a "blind buy" bull market restart.
Three reasons for short-term bullishness:
1. CPI confirms a cooling trend — even a mild decline is enough to ease rate hike expectations. The Fed "not moving" is the biggest positive.
2. VIX is at the floor — a 14.45 fear index shows the market is unprepared; once there is positive catalyst, short covering will ignite a short squeeze rally.
3. The AI theme is back — Nebius surged 34%, CoreWeave up 19%, AMD up 19%, the most crowd-pulling sector is alive again.
But beware of three looming swords:
1. CPI drop is not steep enough — 3.4% is still far from the Fed's 2% target. The market is "interpreting it optimistically" now, but if next month's data fluctuates, those laughing today will suffer the hardest tomorrow.
2. Valuations are not cheap — S&P 500 is near historical highs, but corporate earnings growth hasn't caught up. This rally is "emotion-driven" rather than "performance-driven," the foundation is weak.
3. Liquidity inflection point not reached — interest rates remain high at 5.5%, borrowing costs haven't dropped, what supports further valuation expansion?
---
3. Final Conclusion
Short-term direction for U.S. stocks: oscillating with a bullish bias
But this is not the start of a trend bull market, rather a phase rebound brought by "improved expectations."
Looking up, space is limited; looking down, repeated CPI or a hawkish Fed can instantly reverse the gains.
In terms of operations: participation is possible, but don't chase highs, keep a fallback plan. Don't be greedy when it rises, don't panic when it falls — at this position, it's not about who earns more, but who escapes in time. CPI data cooled as expected, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping from 50% to 40%. According to textbook scripts, this should be a carnival for risk assets. But Bitcoin only surged to $64,400 before turning back to around $63,500. Good news arrived, but prices didn't hold steady. This is not bad news but a more insightful signal: the market had already traded this part of the expectation in advance, and the real incremental funds are still waiting for the next confirmation. The data itself is fine; the problem is the timing lag. In July, core CPI year-on-year fell to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021. Inflation is declining, and expectations of rate cuts are rising—logically, this is good news for risk assets. However, the crypto market's reaction was a "brief rally followed by a pullback," and US stock futures were equally lackluster. This is not contradictory. Because before the CPI release, the market had been trading the narrative of "inflation falling down" for several weeks. Bitcoin rose from $58,000 to around $64,000, with most of the gains coming from anticipated early digestion. By the time the data arrived, the trading space for the expected gap had narrowed. The positive news is real, but it has already been priced in by the market. The key next is: can data drive real capital into the market? The rebound in recent weeks has been driven more by "short covering" and "rebalancing of existing funds" rather than large-scale inflows of new funds. Although ETF inflows continue, they are mostly institutional allocations according to plan rather than timed buying based on single CPI data. The real test is: whether the decline in inflation can be sustained,Don't rush to bottom-fish. Although the market is currently quiet, on-chain data shows it has not yet reached a historical level of "desperate bottom." ETH may still be some distance from a true "golden pit." It is recommended to temporarily give up struggling with "trash coins" and switch to cash is king, waiting for clear bottom signals.
Why is the market "dead"? (The root of the sideways movement)
The "lack of momentum" you feel is not an illusion; the market is in a state of liquidity exhaustion:
- Macro drain: The Fed's rate cut expectations have been delayed, and the high interest rate environment makes funds more willing to hold U.S. Treasuries (4.9%+ yield) rather than interest-free cryptocurrencies. The strengthening dollar further suppresses the appeal of BTC/ETH.
- Leverage wiped out: Previously leveraged funds have been repeatedly liquidated, and the perpetual contract funding rate is negative, indicating even "gamblers" have given up, lacking incremental funds.
- Safety panic: Recent frequent DeFi protocol hacks (such as Balance) have caused funds to flee for safety, leading to reduced on-chain activity.
Is this the bottom of the "big adjustment"? (Data self-check)
You want to bottom-fish, but a true bottom usually needs to meet the following conditions, which have not yet been fully met:
- Valuation not broken: The MVRV Z-Score indicator shows the market is cheap but not "desperate." Historical bottoms usually require this indicator to enter negative territory (not yet reached).
- Miners not surrendered: The Puell Multiple indicator shows miners are under selling pressure but no large-scale "amputation for survival" sell-off has occurred.
- Sentiment not frozen: Although fearful, social media is not yet filled with "zeroing out" and complete despair, indicating some are still watching, and selling pressure has not cleared.
What to do now? (Strategy suggestions)
- Stop "trash coin" trial and error: Data shows 95% of tokens underperform BTC, and 73% of projects have retraced over 90%. Continuing to trade among them is like "catching flying knives," only consuming principal. It is recommended to clear small coins and hold stablecoins or cash.
- Wait for the "three missing one" bottom signals:
- Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index long-term in "extreme fear" (<20).
- Chips: Exchange BTC/ETH balances continuously declining (those who want to sell have sold out).
- Funds: ETFs show sustained net inflows again.
- If you can't resist operating:
- High sell, low buy: Short at the upper boundary of the range, long at the lower boundary, strictly set stop losses.
- Breakout follow-up: Don't guess direction; wait for volume breakout of the range before chasing orders to avoid being slapped back and forth.
$ETH market is currently in a "bottom grinding" phase and may need 2-3 more months to complete chip exchange. Before clear bottom signals appear, "not losing" is winning; preserving strength is more important than blind bottom-fishing. Cisco (CSCO) 2027 fiscal year earnings guidance exceeded market expectations, but due to a conservative outlook on AI revenue, the market was not convinced. Once the earnings report was released, the positive news turned negative, and the stock price plunged 4% after hours, falling to $118.8.
The main reason for this adjustment is that major investors had previously built positions ahead of time, riding the wave of AI order beats. After the earnings report was finalized, the funds lacked new momentum and started circulating within the market. Coupled with market concerns about whether AI revenue can be realized on time, the short-term sentiment was instantly ignited by the conservative outlook, triggering sell-offs.
Short-term sentiment has not yet stabilized, so it is suitable for quick in-and-out trading; definitely avoid holding long-term stubbornly. If the stock price can rebound above $120, it is recommended to take profits quickly; if it falls below $117, decisively cut losses and exit! $CSCO #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 Interest rate hike of 45% looming! $BTC and $ETH collectively drifting down, funds frantically fleeing ETFs
2026.8.13 Market data snapshot: $BTC current price 63452, 24-hour decline 0.18%, $ETH quoted at 1878.99, slight drop of 0.14%, spot $ETH ETF net outflow of $1.76 million in one day, strong short-term institutional profit-taking sentiment.
The current core market constraint is the 45% probability of a rate hike in September, CPI data at 3.4% meets expectations and only eliminates extreme bearish factors, easing conditions have not materialized. Both leading tokens have daily trading volumes exceeding 4 billion, volume has not shrunk, the slow decline indicates continuous absorption of selling pressure, 64500 is the short-term strong resistance for $BTC, and the 1900 level is the key battleground for ETH bulls and bears.
Capital flight and risk aversion characteristics are very obvious: the native crypto market lacks upward catalysts, funds are flowing to two safe havens. Gold $XAUUSDT rose 0.94%, relying on its inflation-hedging properties to absorb cautious funds; US stock storage mapping token $SNDK surged 6.65%, with a trading volume of 1.559 billion, the AI storage cycle recovery logic continues to attract lurking funds.
Practical advice: no one-sided trend in the short term, do not blindly bottom-fish mainstream assets, strictly control positions and wait for the next round of macro data catalysts.
⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice$XSPCX: The narrative is fading, and the story bubble is being priced by the market
$XSPCX
You can think of this stock as a dog raised by Musk, priced at one hundred thousand.
When the market believes in Musk and the grand vision of SpaceX, buying pressure is continuous, pushing the price to over a hundred thousand. Even with a high valuation, people are willing to pay for the story.
But the reality is, SpaceX was rapidly included in the Nasdaq, with widespread hype and promotion across the internet, yet the stock price has continued to weaken and decline.
This clearly indicates a problem: the current market is no longer willing to pay for Musk's grand narrative.
Many might think that the price dropping from one hundred thousand to fifty thousand is a big fall and a chance to buy at a bargain.
But one must recognize a reality: once detached from Musk's emotional halo and stripping away all the future story premiums, the true value of this dog itself might only be ten thousand. #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Simplified US Stock Market #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Outlook (2026.8, analysis only, not investment advice)
Overall Trend
The foundation of the US stock bull market remains intact, supported by AI capital investment + high profitability of US companies + economic soft landing; no systemic bear market in the short term. However, after a long period of rise, valuations are high and market expectations are full, ending the era of one-sided big gains, with high volatility becoming the norm.
Key Positives
Leading tech giants are gradually monetizing AI businesses with stable profit margins; slowing employment and consumption may pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates, with liquidity expectations providing long-term support for the market; the second half of the year’s market will spread from a small range of leaders to industrials, healthcare, and small to mid caps.
Main Risks
High and volatile US Treasury yields suppress growth stock valuations; if rate cuts lag market expectations, rapid pullbacks are likely; strong market divergence with indices rising but most small caps lagging, theme stocks lack earnings support and carry bubble risk; geopolitical and trade policies can cause short-term shocks at any time.
Sector Preferences
Priority: computing power chips, cloud service leaders, high-dividend defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities, consumer staples);
Avoid: pure AI-themed unprofitable small caps, high-debt and interest rate sensitive stocks.
Practical Approach
Avoid chasing high prices, adopt phased entry; lower return expectations, US stocks will mainly rise with volatility going forward; ordinary investors should prioritize broad-based indices to reduce individual stock speculation and pay attention to additional volatility risks brought by the US dollar exchange rate. $BTC US CPI landed pretty much where the market expected, and sometimes that can be just as interesting as a surprise.
My first thought is that an in-line number removes one major uncertainty, but it doesn’t necessarily give the market a clear direction. Inflation isn’t suddenly gone, and at the same time, there wasn’t a major upside surprise that forces everyone to rethink the outlook.
For me, the interesting part now is what happens after the initial reaction. Does the market stay comfortable with current rate cut expectations, or will upcoming jobs and growth data change the story again?
I also wouldn’t read too much into the first BTC move after CPI. Macro days can get noisy very quickly, and sometimes the more meaningful move comes later once yields and the dollar settle down.
#USCPIMatchesExpectations $BTC OKB/USDT Quick Take
Current Price: $OKB 101.79 is up +3.08% today, showing strong momentum and pushing well above its moving averages.
Support to Watch: $99.00 is the key floor to hold if it pulls back.
Target to Watch: A push back up to test the $OKB 102.43 resistance level is likely if buying pressure continues.#CPIEasesHikeBets #OKX.ai CPI has stabilized.
July CPI year-on-year is 3.4%, core 2.5%, exactly as expected. After the data was released, the market immediately breathed a sigh of relief, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is very high. Nothing else has changed much; Bitcoin and gold are both fluctuating.
The biggest value of this CPI is one thing — no surprises. Non-farm payrolls have cooled down, and CPI didn’t launch a sneak attack, so the rate hike expectations have basically been extinguished. Inflation is still above 2%, but it no longer justifies further rate hikes.
However, one point to watch is that housing costs remain rigid, accounting for two-thirds of the inflation increase. The long-term pressure hasn’t been fully relieved, which is why long-term interest rates haven’t fallen along with short-term rates. The market has confirmed "no rate hike," but hasn’t reached the "rate cut" stage yet.
For the crypto community, the biggest significance of this data is that expectations have stabilized. The biggest fear before was a CPI rebound exceeding expectations, pulling rate hike expectations back up, but now that risk is eliminated. But don’t expect this data to directly trigger a rally; it’s more like defusing a bomb rather than throwing one.
What do you all think?
$BTC $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Thursday Crypto Market Summary: The market will still go down, but don't act just yet!
Good morning, friends. Last night $BTC clearly showed its direction.
It still can't break through 64500, then a large volume bearish candle smashed through 63800, hitting a low of 63210.
Once this level breaks, the bulls won't hold, but the drop isn't smooth yet.
Currently fluctuating around 63500, 63800 has turned from previous support into resistance.
So: short positions, we keep watching, but don't chase now.
Wait for a rebound near 63800, face resistance again, then look down to 62650.
If you already have short positions, be patient;
My view remains: if 63800 doesn't hold, it's bearish; if 62650 breaks, there's more room down.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 This chart shows the net realized profit and loss indicator for long-term Bitcoin holders.
Here, long-term holders refer to investors who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days.
Therefore, on average, it excludes those investors who are swayed by minor market fluctuations and those who are eaten up by whales.
Historically, they almost never sell at a loss.
But when the bear market truly begins, even they will fall below zero, suffer losses, and sell their assets.
In this way, when it steadily remains below zero and most long-term investors eventually give up, sell out tiredly, and leave the market, an extreme negative spike appears.
Currently, in the 2026 bear market, such a final plunge has not yet been seen.
Based on this alone, I expect an unexpected timing for the public when Bitcoin will plunge sharply once more. If you hold altcoins, you might still be wondering: Is the altcoin season finally coming back?
Some people are even thinking that it might already be happening...
What they see is this: The ETH/BTC ratio has been rising since around early July and has now reached a 3-month high (ETH/BTC: 0.2961). For many, this is exactly the starting point of every altcoin season: Ethereum rises first, then capital rotates down the risk curve to smaller coins.
The overlooked catch: Rotation requires something to rotate into. As long as Bitcoin itself isn’t truly rising, the prettiest ETH/BTC chart is just sideways-moving capital being redistributed.
The latest on-chain data shows: Bitcoin dominance excluding stablecoins is still rising. If you exclude stablecoins, you are measuring Bitcoin against real altcoins. Bitcoin is still winning this battle, which means capital continues to concentrate in the safest asset. It is not broadly flowing down the risk curve, which is the real hallmark of altcoin season. Therefore, what is seen is just a paper signal without context. My assessment: Altcoin season does not happen spontaneously. The signal is there, but the environment is not yet. Bitcoin comes first, then rotation, not the other way around. This time, a more honest indicator is not the ETH/BTC chart but the question of where the funds ultimately flow.
Before you bet on altcoins again, watch three things: Bitcoin rising. Dominance shifting. Stablecoin inflows increasing. The US July CPI just came out at +3.4% YoY, Core CPI +2.5% YoY. Month-over-month, CPI rose 0.1% and Core CPI increased 0.2%. Inflation is cooling compared to last month, but the data hasn't created a big enough "shock" for the market to immediately switch to a full risk-on mode. (Bureau of Labor Statistics) And the market's reaction after the CPI gives us a rather interesting signal: Money is not flowing into all risky assets. Money is being selective. 🐸 MEME COIN – SPECULATIVE MONEY STILL HASN'T REALLY RETURNED $DOGE currently around CPI has reduced the risk of a rate hike, but only PPI can tell us whether inflation is truly gone or just taking a breather.
The CPI data is out — year-over-year 3.4%, core CPI 2.5%, both exactly as expected.
The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 48% to 38%, while the probability of no change surged to 62%.
Good news, right?
Then Bitcoin surged to 64,400, only to crash back down to 63,500.
You read that right. Good news came out, but the price fell.
Why?
Because the market never pays for "meeting expectations," it only celebrates "exceeding expectations."
A 3.4% CPI is exactly what everyone predicted. No surprises, no shocks, nothing.
Housing costs are still rising, contributing two-thirds of the monthly increase. Core inflation at 2.5% is still half a point above the Fed's 2% target.
The real meaning of this data is —
The risk of a rate hike has decreased, but the possibility of a rate cut? Not increased at all.
Sygnum Bank's CIO put it plainly: "The economy is gradually cooling down, with neither recession fears nor renewed hawkish pricing."
In plain language: inflation isn’t dead, just catching its breath.
What really makes me nervous is the following statement.
Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, said something last night that I suggest you read three times:
"The CPI data meeting expectations... doesn’t solve many problems. The more interesting detail is that the Bitcoin options market still charges a high premium for protective puts. Among options expiring at the end of August, the cost of downside strike prices near $60,000 is higher than the equivalent upside strike prices near $70,000."
Got it?
The market is willing to pay more to buy insurance against Bitcoin dropping to 60,000 than to buy a lottery ticket for Bitcoin rising to 70,000.
This is not a bullish signal; it’s fear priced in.
Grachev also said the second half —
"Tomorrow’s PPI will be the next checkpoint to see if this premium starts to ease."
At 8:30 PM tonight, the US July PPI will be released.
Previous PPI: monthly rate -0.3%, annual rate 5.5%. Market expects monthly rate to turn positive at 0.2%.
Two possibilities:
PPI below expectations → production-side inflation cools comprehensively, probability of pausing rate hikes in September rises further, Bitcoin may break through the 64,400 resistance.
PPI above expectations → factories are still raising prices, costs continue to pass downstream, rate hike expectations return, Bitcoin faces a test of the 63,000 support level.
CPI shows how much consumers have already paid. PPI shows how much producers still need to raise prices.
The former tells you the past; the latter tells you the future.
One more unsettling signal.
Analyst Rekt Capital posted a chart on X: Bitcoin’s rebound strength from the 63,000 area has declined from 6.27% → 5.83% → 3.18% → now only 1.15%.
Each rebound is weaker than the last.
Bitfinex’s research team also said: Bitcoin has been rejected six times in the 65,000-65,500 range.
Six times.
The same ceiling, hit six times and still no breakthrough.
That’s not a good sign.
06.
So tonight’s strategy is simple —
Don’t heavily bet on direction right after the CPI release.
The market is currently in a "waiting for the next data" vacuum. The options market still prices high premiums for downside risk at the end of August.
What does this mean? It means big money hasn’t placed bets yet.
They’re waiting for PPI. Waiting for 8:30 PM tonight.
CPI has reduced the risk of a rate hike, but only PPI can tell us whether inflation is truly gone or just taking a breather.
Will you be watching the PPI data at 8:30 PM tonight?
$BTC $ETH $XAU #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
$SPCX Musk dropped a bold statement at the all-hands meeting: AI revenue is expected to surpass the company's other businesses combined by September, and in five years, AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value. He did the math — by the end of next year, building 10 gigawatts of computing power, at $30-50 per watt, corresponds to annual revenue of $300 billion to $500 billion.
SpaceX's AI business revenue in Q2 has already grown 213% quarter-over-quarter and 247% year-over-year, reaching $2.6 billion. Of the $7.8 billion total revenue in Q2, AI already accounts for nearly one-third.
The last successful short squeeze happened because the short positions were too crowded — 34% of the float was shorted. Now the short positions have dropped to only 11%, so even if the stock price continues to rise, the number of shorts forced to cover has significantly decreased. The intensity of the previous "short squeeze stampede" is hard to replicate.
A bigger issue is the continuous release of shares. On August 20, 319 million shares (about 7%) will be unlocked, about 700 million shares in September, and nearly 700 million shares in October. By the end of the year, the float will surge from 639 million shares to 5.33 billion shares.
Last week's unlock didn't crash the market because the short positions were too crowded. This week, the shorts have mostly exited; can we really expect the same script to play out again? The real factor determining the trend after August 20 is not the shorts, but the insiders and early investors who can finally sell their shares. Crypto winter continues: BitGo's revenue soars 80%, yet it struggles with "the busier, the harder to make money."
BitGo's latest Q2 financial report shows revenue reaching $4.33 billion, a nearly 80% year-over-year increase, but the company ultimately posted a net loss of $19 million.
In the same period last year, BitGo earned $38.3 million.
Meanwhile, CFO Edward Reginelli will resign on September 15.
Of the current $4.33 billion revenue, about $4.2 billion comes from digital asset trading, with direct costs as high as $4.19 billion, leaving a real profit margin of only about $7.1 million.
Trading volume is growing, but the profitability per transaction is declining.
The staking business shows a similar trend, with the platform's commission rate dropping from 16.1% in Q1 to 6%.
BitGo previously cut about 15% of its staff in June and plans to save $15 million in cash expenses annually.
The company emphasizes that the most important task now is not to keep increasing revenue figures but to maximize how much revenue can be converted into profit.
It is worth noting that BitGo is not currently in a financial crisis.
The company holds $159 million in cash, 2,523 bitcoins on its own books, and has no corporate-level debt. Stablecoin services are also one of the few bright spots, with related income up 148% year-over-year.
BitGo's financial report reflects changes in the crypto industry: previously, growth in trading volume, user numbers, and custody assets meant the market was willing to pay; now, the market cares most about business profitability.August 13 Analysis
After last night's CPI release, the market surged then pulled back, still without a clear trend, overall remaining in a range-bound state. Today's short-term pattern continues the previous consolidation; in operations, continue to focus on key support and resistance levels, avoiding blind chasing of rallies or panic selling.
$BTC
Support: 63000
Resistance: 64000-64500
$ETH
Support: 1850-1870
Resistance: 1920-1950
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ETH is down 0.41% over the past 24 hours amid a compressed range.
Activity has dropped: volumes are cooling off, ratio at 0.45.
Nearest support is at 1870.5 (within 0.34%), nearest resistance at 1884.6 (0.41%).
Pressure remains for now: if it loses 1870.5, the next target is 1852.4.US July CPI (released on the evening of August 12 Beijing time)
Core data (all in line with market expectations)
- Overall CPI: year-on-year 3.4% (previous 3.5%), month-on-month +0.1% (previous -0.4%)
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy): year-on-year 2.5% (previous 2.6%), month-on-month +0.2% (previous 0.0%)
Key components
1. Housing: month-on-month +0.1%, contributing about two-thirds of the monthly CPI increase, still the largest source of inflation stickiness
2. Energy: month-on-month -1.5%, declining for the second consecutive month, gasoline prices fell; but year-on-year still relatively high, geopolitical risks remain
3. Food: month-on-month +0.1%, home food slightly declined, dining out continued to rise
4. Services: medical and airfare prices rose significantly, airfare month-on-month +2.2%
Market reaction
1. Probability of Fed rate hike in September fell from nearly 47% to the 35-40% range, market pricing increased likelihood of no rate change in September
2. US Treasury yields slightly declined, dollar weakened, US stocks and gold saw short-term gains; risk asset sentiment marginally improved
3. Inflation is cooling but still noticeably above the Fed's 2% target, expectations for rate cuts within the year remain very low
Implications for crypto market
- Data did not surprise on the downside or upside, considered "neutral to slightly positive," unlikely to trigger extreme moves;
- Key focus ahead: Jackson Hole speech at the end of August + August CPI, Morning Analysis: The Night After CPI, $BTC and $ETH Didn't Crash, But Also Couldn't Rally
After last night's CPI "buy the rumor, sell the fact" sell-off, BTC and ETH calmed down quietly overnight.
BTC touched a low of 63288 in the early morning, just 125 points above the low of 63163 from three days ago, but did not break it. Then it slowly climbed back to 63482. ETH's early morning low was 1872, with a $20 cushion above the 1852 low from the day before yesterday, now back to 1879. Both are hovering just above their respective lows in a narrow range, neither breaking down further nor making a meaningful rebound.
This is the market state after CPI—neither panic nor excitement. The data fully met expectations, giving no reason for bears to add positions, nor any excuse for bulls to rally. The three-day downtrend was temporarily halted at the 63163 line, but bulls lack the strength to push higher. The direction is stuck in limbo.
Tonight at 8:30 PM is the PPI release. This is a supplementary verification of CPI—if PPI also remains moderate, the inflation cooling chain will be complete, and the market will further lower rate hike expectations. The 63163 level for BTC is very likely to hold. If PPI rebounds, it indicates that cost pressures are still transmitting to the consumer side, and 63163 will come under pressure again.
Key levels: For BTC, 63163 below is the lifeline of this round; if broken, look for 62800. Above, 64000 was lost last night; regaining it would mean stabilization. For ETH, 1872 is the early morning low, 1852 is the hard bottom. Above, 1900 is resistance.
Before tonight's PPI, the market will likely continue to consolidate. Whether 63163 holds depends on tonight.
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#CLARITY延期，SEC拟推进监管规则补位 Despite BTC's rise, derivative positions have already become vulnerable. This trader's experience of a sharp rise immediately after taking a short position clearly shows how sensitive the market has become to one-sided betting. - The post mentions $APR and $BICO, expressing a cautious view about the possibility of material fading after the sharp rise. - The key facts are threefold: a sharp rise occurred immediately after entering the short, the price then fell again, and currently, a gradual rise is underway. - This is an example showing how vulnerable derivative positions are to sudden price changes during a phase of increased short-term volatility. The important factor in this flow is the quality of derivative positions rather than the price direction. A sharp rise triggers short liquidations, which then lead to a short squeeze. The subsequent decline is interpreted as a natural retracement as liquidation volume is absorbed. - Similar patterns are observed in BTC and ETH as well. Especially in zones where short positions are excessively accumulated, prices overreact even to minor news. - The problem is this