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#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Musk made a major statement in an internal meeting, predicting that within the next four to five years, AI business will account for 99% of SpaceX's overall valuation. He also provided a timeline, stating that AI revenue could surpass all other businesses such as aerospace and Starlink as early as September, with a computing power target reaching 10 gigawatts by the end of next year. Essentially, this statement reshapes the market narrative: SpaceX is no longer just an aerospace satellite company but an AI infrastructure enterprise supported by Starlink's cash flow powering a computing cluster.
Logically, Starlink is already a stable cash cow, continuously generating profits used to fund the Colossus supercomputing center. Computing power is leased externally to major clients like Google and Anthropic, with rental income rapidly increasing. In Q2, AI segment revenue surged 247% year-over-year. In the long-term plan, the company aims to pursue a "ground training, space inference" approach, integrating the Starlink satellite network with AI computing power to create a unique integrated terrestrial and space computing solution. This is also the imaginative point that capital markets are willing to pay a premium for.
However, it is important to distinguish vision from reality. Currently, aerospace and Starlink remain the main profit drivers. The AI track still involves heavy asset burning, and large-scale computing power expansion requires continuous substantial capital expenditure. The 10 gigawatt computing power corresponding to a revenue estimate of hundreds of billions is based on optimistic assumptions of maintaining high computing power prices and full customer orders. If the industry faces oversupply of computing power and rental prices decline, profit expectations can easily fall short.
In the short-term market perspective, this statement will strengthen market expectations for AI growth and support valuation sentiment. The two biggest variables in the mid-to-long term are: the computing power rental cycle and the commercialization progress of the Grok large model. The aerospace segment will not disappear but will increasingly serve as a supporting foundation for AI business. The company's valuation fluctuations will become more and more tied to the AI industry chain's prosperity. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $SNDK $SPCX $XAU
In the future, OKX and other large crypto exchanges will see one of their biggest new markets coming from RWA, especially on-chain trading of stocks, ETFs, government bonds, money market funds, and other traditional financial assets. The reason lies in the large amount of US dollar stablecoin funds already accumulated by the exchanges, mature matching systems, perpetual contract frameworks, global user bases, and 24/7 trading infrastructure. RWA adds new risk asset options to these funds.
This trend has become very apparent in recent months.
In July, OKX launched Unified Tokenized Stocks, directly bringing assets like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and ETFs into the spot market, with trading pairs directly using USDT. In August, they continued adding new stock assets. As of August 12, the entire tokenized stock market reached about $2.54 billion, whereas this market was much smaller at the beginning of 2026.
The most important variable here is actually stablecoins. The global stablecoin market now approaches $300 billion, with USDT holding the largest share. USDT and USDC together have long dominated the vast majority of the market. A large amount of capital has already migrated from bank dollars to on-chain dollars. They can be used as trading margin, for DeFi, to wait for BTC and ETH opportunities, or remain long-term in USDT.
In the future, large exchanges will increasingly become global asset trading platforms.
The future is already here. The US just released the July CPI data last night as follows:
Overall CPI year-on-year: 3.4% (in line with expectations, previous 3.5%)
Core CPI year-on-year: 2.5% (in line with expectations, previous 2.6%)
Inflation data cooled down steadily as expected, with no unexpected rebound. Overall, it did not have a significant impact on the market, but AI and storage sectors are moving against the trend! For the mainstream coin market, the impact is minimal, but regarding how to open positions, it is recommended to wait until the timing is right! #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
$BTC $ETH $SPCX #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 ——$BTC
CPI is stable, but $BTC hasn't moved; the market is waiting for a “surprise”
Looking at the CPI data: 3.4%, core 2.5%, both precisely hitting expectations. Gasoline prices dropped 2.9%, driving energy prices down 1.5% month-over-month, which is the main reason CPI remained stable.
The probability of a rate hike in September fell from nearly 50% a week ago to about 40%, while the probability of no change rose to 60%. CME data shows the September rate hike probability is now only 42%.
And BTC? It bounced from 63,200 to 64,400, up less than 2%, then immediately dropped back near 63,500. The Nasdaq rose 0.54%, gold had a V-shaped reversal gaining over 1%, while BTC just lay flat as if nothing happened.
“Meeting expectations” is the problem itself. The market had already priced this in—before the CPI release, BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive days totaling $850 million; those who wanted to buy have already done so.
Digging deeper: the 3.4% CPI is still 1.4 percentage points above the Fed’s 2% target. Housing costs rose 0.1% in July, accounting for two-thirds of the overall increase. Oil prices are still hovering above 80, and geopolitical risks remain. Someone bluntly said: “July’s CPI data is moderate enough to reduce the probability of a September rate hike, but long-term price pressures have not been resolved.”
Next, watch several key events: tonight’s PPI, the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of August, September 4th’s nonfarm payrolls, and September 11th’s CPI. What can truly make BTC jump isn’t “meeting expectations,” but a “surprise”—either inflation significantly below expectations or employment data unexpectedly weak.
Meeting expectations means no direction; no direction means no movement. Regarding SanDisk and Hynix.
Currently, for these two stocks, I personally think that in the short term they are making a deep rebound after a decline. As for how they will move afterward, I believe a key point is whether these two will fall at the resistance levels above.
Therefore, in the short term, I suggest everyone not to act rashly.
If you want to short: SanDisk around 1500, Hynix possibly around 1300, at that time you can consider light trial shorts, but I still recommend not doing so yet, because basically the current market is in a state of high volatility. I personally suggest waiting until they have dropped deeply before picking up rebounds, which is safer than shorting at high levels.
In the long run, if you value their future company potential, you can consider long-term regular fixed-amount purchases.
Regarding news, this rebound is mainly driven by the collective surge in the memory sector these past two days, with SanDisk, Hynix, and Micron all rising together. The main reason is the joint announcement of the HBF open technology specification, plus several foreign institutions like RBC have raised target prices and directly called out $200.
Additionally, it was reported that Singapore's sovereign fund Temasek plans to directly invest in Samsung and Hynix, which also boosted the sentiment of the entire sector.
In terms of financial reports, SanDisk's latest quarter revenue increased by 371.6% year-over-year, and gross margin surged to 84.6%, which is quite impressive; however, even after such a rise, the current P/E ratios of these two stocks are still around 18-20 times, which is relatively low compared to other AI-related semiconductor stocks. The market interprets this rise as being solidly supported by fundamentals.On August 12th Beijing time, Hyperliquid founder Jeff Yan announced an update on his official Discrod channel. Because the original statement was too technical, many people overlooked or underestimated the significance of this update. Literal translation: The following is a direct translation of Jeff Yan's original expression. Based on feedback from the Builder, HIP-1 will add the following functions controlled by token deployers: scaleWei { token, totalWei, referenceToken, systemAddress }. This operation automatically transfers the totalWei of the token from systemAddress to these users proportionally based on the user's reference token balance. The calculation process rounds down and excludes the systemAddress itself. For example, when token == referenceToken, this feature can be used for redenomination. systemAddress has two possibilities: the system address of the Core → EVM; Treasury addresses designated by the deployer and able to provide signatures. It should be noted that the EVM itself does not have this atomicDon't be a Monday morning quarterback; tonight's PPI will most likely meet expectations as well.
Yesterday, July CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, month-over-month only 0.1%,
confirming mild inflation.
Tonight's PPI annual rate is expected at 4.9% (previous 5.5%). If it meets expectations, it will just continue the cooling narrative established by the CPI, not a new surprise.
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI The U.S. SEC has approved Franklin Templeton to use its on-chain BENJI system to manage the cash liquidity of its funds. This asset management company, which manages trillions of dollars in assets, has received regulatory approval for "running core operations on blockchain."
This is different from buying ETFs. On the same day, Goldman Sachs spent $2.25 billion to acquire Neos, obtaining BTC and Ethereum ETF products that offer crypto exposure to clients; Franklin, however, is moving its own backend by directly putting fund cash management, clearing, and share records on-chain.
The regulatory attitude is also changing. The SEC no longer only approves a product for trading but allows regulated institutions to embed on-chain systems into key entrusted operational processes. Blockchain is shifting from being an "investment target" to "infrastructure."
When asset management giants use blockchain to manage their own money, not just to trade crypto for clients, adoption is truly ingrained at the core.SK Hynix is advancing NAND expansion; in the short term, it's due to the strong AI storage demand, but in the long term, it reflects the most familiar pattern of the storage cycle.
Currently, enterprise SSDs, AI servers, and inference data centers are all consuming NAND, with strong prices and full orders, so expansion sounds very reasonable. The problem is that the storage industry tends to make the same mistake at the peak of the boom: everyone thinks the shortage will continue, so they all invest in production simultaneously. When the new capacity comes online in concentration, prices drop faster than a falling out.
Therefore, this news cannot be simply regarded as positive.
It shows that AI demand is indeed fierce, fierce enough that SK Hynix is willing to continue increasing investment; but it also reminds investors that once supply expectations rise, the market will preemptively worry about margin compression. What storage stocks fear most is not a lack of buyers, but too many people simultaneously believing the bull market will never end.
I will pay more attention to the pace of expansion and long-term contract prices, rather than just the four words "AI demand is strong." In cyclical industries, the most profitable times are often when risks begin to emerge.
#海力士推进NAND扩产，存储供给预期上升 #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
CPI met expectations and is not really a surprise; the real change is that the market's pricing for a "September rate hike" is starting to loosen.
🚨 July CPI landed at a year-on-year 3.4%, core at 2.5%, basically in line with expectations.
After the data release, the probability of no rate hike in September rose to nearly 60%.
On the surface, this looks positive, but the key is not "how much CPI dropped," but that the Fed has one less reason to continue raising rates.
The market has never been trading this CPI, but whether tightening can be maintained in the future.
The biggest fear before was inflation rebounding → forced to continue rate hikes.
Now this logic is loosening.
Funds are starting to trade another path: inflation cooling → rate hike expectations falling → short-term US Treasuries retreating → dollar weakening → risk assets recovering, BTC will also benefit.
But the problem is: this is not yet an easing cycle.
Because the short end is loosening, but the long end is not; fiscal deficits, debt scale, and term premiums still support long-term rates.
Simply put, whether the Fed wants to raise rates is one thing, but whether the market believes easing will happen is another.
Next, we need to watch these three things:
① Whether the dollar continues to weaken
② Whether the 10-year US Treasury can truly decline
③ Whether BTC capital flows return
If only CPI looks good, but long-term rates remain high and BTC does not follow, then it is just: expectations cooling, not a cycle reversal.
Only when the dollar, US Treasuries, and BTC capital all turn simultaneously will the market start trading: the next liquidity cycle.PART 4: Hormuz can become a Fed story Here's the part many crypto traders miss. The Fed doesn't set policy based on Bitcoin. It watches the economy and inflation. If an oil shock becomes large and persistent, markets can worry about renewed inflation pressure. That can create a difficult situation: Growth weakens + inflation stays elevated. That's a very different environment from falling inflation and easy monetary policy. For crypto, the key variables to watch become: 📌 Fed rate expectations #What to watch for SanDisk tonight
Tonight I will be tracking PPI data and $SNDK Investor Day in real time, posting key information as soon as possible.
This post serves as a warm-up and also lays out my observation framework for tonight below 👇
Yesterday SanDisk closed at 1,344.29, up 5.76%; Micron, WDC, and Seagate also rose, but all pulled back after opening higher, indicating the sector is warming up but price chasing is unstable, waiting for tonight to confirm the trend.
At 8:30 PM US time, July PPI will be released, and at 9 PM SanDisk will hold its Investor Day. PPI affects interest rates and risk appetite, while Investor Day tests SanDisk's own business narrative.
I categorize possible signals into three types:
[Bullish signals]
Investor Day provides verifiable business growth, and the market does not weaken after PPI;
SNDK outperforms MU, WDC, STX, with gains supported by volume and price.
[Bearish signals]
The company only has a long-term demand narrative, with expansion and capital expenditures lacking returns, utilization, and cash flow explanations;
PPI pushes yields higher, Nasdaq weakens, SNDK spikes then falls back and underperforms peers.
[Sideways signals]
Company information is positive but not exceeding expectations, PPI and market direction are unclear;
SNDK fluctuates with the sector, volume increases but no breakout or leadership formed.
I currently only have a SanDisk grid position as an observation position, will enter again after signal confirmation.
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解 #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
CPI data has finally settled without surprises, which is the biggest positive for the current market.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
Inflation data met expectations and continues to decline; the Fed’s stubborn insistence on "still raising rates" has basically lost all credibility. The main trading focus has officially shifted from "whether there will be more rate hikes" to "whether September’s rate cut will be 25 or 50 basis points."
For the crypto space, this macro logic is actually straightforward:
The heavy stone hanging overhead has fallen
Previously, funds were cautious, fearing an inflation rebound that would tighten macro liquidity further. Now that the data is out, the boot has dropped, and short-term risk aversion has clearly eased.
Liquidity turns favorable for risk assets
As rate cut expectations rise, the US dollar index weakens, and macro hot money will inevitably seek higher-yield pools. Bitcoin and quality mainstream assets will see significantly stronger support during the upcoming window.
Bullish but don’t blindly go all in
Rate cuts are a long-term positive, but beware of the market speculating on "economic recession." If the US stock market experiences sharp volatility due to recession fears, the crypto market will inevitably be dragged down in the short term. The safest strategy now remains to accumulate chips on dips and avoid chasing prices blindly during rallies.
The toughest macro phase is over; the rest is up to time. Are you holding your spot positions firmly? How high do you think Bitcoin can surge this time? The latest CPI inflation report is purring, not roaring. With both headline CPI (3.4%) and Core CPI (2.5%) landing exactly as expected, the market can breathe a sigh of relief. There were no unwelcome surprises. More importantly, both figures show a slight downtick from the previous period. This steady, gentle decline is precisely what the Federal Reserve has been aiming for. It's a classic sign of disinflation, inflation is losing steam, but not falling off a cliff. So, what does this mean for #马斯克一句话，让SPCX重新讲起了AI故事
99% is AI, 1% is rockets.
And my short position just happens to be stuck in between.
$SPCX broke through $146, rallying all the way from around $108, with gains exceeding 35%. My short position is currently floating a loss of 200U, nearly -531%, but I still haven't chosen to exit.
The reason is simple: it's not that I don't understand the market's enthusiasm, but that I'm waiting for the market to provide the real answer.
Elon Musk signaled in an internal meeting: AI business revenue is expected to exceed all other businesses combined by September, with computing power reaching 10GW by the end of the year, and annual revenue projected between $300 billion and $500 billion. He even suggested that in five years, AI could account for 99% of SpaceX's value.
This story is truly shocking.
What does $500 billion in annual revenue mean?
NVIDIA's recent revenue scale is only in the tens of billions, while an AI business not yet fully commercialized is targeting $500 billion.
This is no ordinary growth; it feels like redefining a company's business model.
The market clearly bought into it.
SPCX surged from around $108 to above $146, with real money voting. Over a month ago, the market was discussing rockets, Starlink, and aerospace business; now, the market talks about AI, computing power, and a future trillion-dollar imagination space.
The same asset, just a different narrative, and the valuation logic completely changes.
Sometimes the market doesn't need financial reports or data, just a strong enough story.
But what I want to see is the reality after the story.
Because stories can drive prices up or create bubbles. The market can trade expectations in advance, but ultimately it needs orders, revenue, and profit numbers to prove it.
My short position remains, not because I deny AI development or don't recognize the future direction.
I just don't believe $500 billion in revenue will be realized directly from one meeting or one statement.
Next, I will focus more on financial reports, orders, and commercial implementation.
He said 99% is AI.
And I choose to stand in the remaining 1%, waiting for the data to provide the answer.
Stories can ignite the market, but what truly supports the price is always the results.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Massive sell-off in tech stocks, is the rally really over? Let's talk about the underlying logic behind SK Hynix's plunge
1. Deleveraging: Panic forced liquidations, self-reinforcing downward spiral
The core trigger of this round of sharp decline is the concentrated exit of leveraged funds.
a. In the first half of the year, the HBM market was hot, with many retail and institutional investors in the Korean market heavily leveraged on Hynix, and related leveraged ETFs trading volume reached 4 times that of the individual stock;
b. After a slight price pullback, a large number of leveraged accounts triggered forced liquidations, causing a panic sell-off that dragged down the Korean stock circuit breakers;
c. Tech financing positions in major global markets withdrew simultaneously, causing severe selling pressure on high-level storage stocks.
2. US-listed ADR: Positive news fully priced in, cross-market arbitrage crushes Korean stock
Originally, the US listing was seen as very positive, but it turned directly into a sell-off.
a. Stock price surged ahead before listing, profits cashed out after the positive news;
b. US ADR premium reached as high as 51%, arbitrage funds shorted the Korean stock itself;
c. Retail investors cannot arbitrage across markets to offset the price difference, so the stock remains under continuous pressure.
3. Escalation of US-Iran geopolitical conflict suppresses high-valuation growth stocks
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue with ongoing clashes, causing chain reactions in the tech sector;
a. Oil prices surged sharply, inflation expectations rebounded, the market lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts, putting pressure on valuations of high-valuation tech stocks;
b. Funds fled to safety, moving from high-volatility AI storage and chips to gold and oil & gas defensive sectors;
c. Market risk appetite declined across the board, any negative news amplifies panic, intensifying the storage sell-off wave. #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 近期美国房地产陷入低成交、低流动、高利率格局，成屋销售年化已经低于2008年初危机初期水平。虽然不等于马上复刻次贷危机，但楼市、就业、传统资本开支同步走弱，叠加AI繁荣掩盖实体经济疲弱，这套宏观环境，会从四个维度传导到比特币等数字货币盘面。 一、楼市“锁定效应”，间接改变美联储降息节奏 高房贷利率带来房屋锁定效应，屋主不愿置换、买家被高成本挡在门外，楼市交易量持续萎缩。房价虽还没有全面暴跌，但已经存在局部回调风险。 房价下行会打击居民财富效应，压制美国居民消费，实体经济数据会进一步走弱。 市场会交易“经济走弱倒逼美联储降息”的预期： 1. 若市场强化降息预期，美债收益率下行，理论上会利好比特币这类风险资产； 2. 但要注意：仅仅经济差不等于立刻宽松，如果通胀反复，美联储会继续维持高利率，加密资产依旧承压。 二、K型经济撕裂：AI独强，传统经济走弱的矛盾局面 当前美国经济呈现明显K型分化：接近一半企业资本开支涌向AI赛道，撑起美股科技板块；房地产、制造业、汽车等传统板块持续降温，剔除AI投资后，实体经济已经十分疲弱。 映射到加密市场： 1. 资金扎堆BTC holding near $63.9K while CPI eases hike expectations suggests macro relief is supporting the market, but the muted gains across BTC, ETH and SOL are not a convincing risk-on signal.
Gold’s haven bid and rising Hormuz pressure still argue for caution. My read is that crypto remains in a liquidity-supported consolidation, with AI and chip optimism too narrow to drive a broader breakout yet.
Not advice, just analysis.SPCX has climbed back above $145!
Ten days ago, it was around $105, and now it has rebounded to $146. Why is the overall market quiet while $SPCX is running its own show?
SPCX doesn’t follow the usual crypto market logic.
It corresponds to SpaceX stock, with each token exchangeable 1:1 for the corresponding security via Backpack Securities. So the core factors affecting it are not just BTC and market liquidity, but also SpaceX’s own performance, valuation, and stock supply and demand.
As of August 13, SPCX rose about 9% in the past 24 hours and about 33% over seven days, clearly outperforming the crypto market during the same period.
Two negative factors that previously suppressed the price are now being digested by the market.
SpaceX’s first quarterly report after going public showed revenue of $7.8 billion, a year-over-year increase of over 90%; although it still posted a loss of $541 million, the loss was less than half of market expectations.
At the same time, over 900 million internal shares were unlocked. Everyone expected selling pressure to crash the price, but on the day of unlocking, the stock price actually rose 6.1%.
So this rebound, I think, is not just about hyping a new story, but more about the market realizing: the performance isn’t as bad as imagined, and the unlocking pressure isn’t as big as expected.
On-chain trading has added another layer of RWA (Real World Asset) heat to SPCX.
SPCX can be traded 24/7, self-custodied, wallet-transferred, and converted between tokens and traditional securities via Backpack.
Currently, its on-chain 24-hour trading volume has exceeded $6.3 million, up about 267% from the previous day. In other words, the market is trading on two fronts simultaneously:
One is the fundamental recovery of SpaceX;
The other is the incremental story of US stock assets going on-chain.
It took about ten days to go from $105 to $146.
But what’s really worth watching next is not whether it can suddenly spike again, but whether it can hold the IPO price of $135 steadily, and whether the newly unlocked shares can continue to be absorbed by the market.
If the trading volume holds, this might be more than just an oversold rebound; if volume and price quickly fall back, it remains a highly volatile new stock.
At least for now, SPCX has shifted from "everyone waiting for it to drop" to "those out of the market starting to worry about missing out." $SPCX #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Trump gives BTC status, not a price floor
The Trump administration has continuously promoted the integration of digital assets with the traditional financial system, and U.S. policy direction is clearly more friendly than before. Related White House executive orders
This easily creates a market illusion: since the U.S. has started supporting cryptocurrencies, the price of $BTC should have policy-backed support.
But a country's recognition of an asset's importance is completely different from a country's commitment to maintaining its market price.
Policies can help banks, funds, and payment companies participate in digital assets more easily, reducing the regulatory discount the industry faces long-term. This will expand BTC's potential buyers and increase institutional confidence in holding it.
However, policies cannot eliminate market cycles, nor can they prevent declines caused by high interest rates, economic recessions, or leveraged liquidations.
Even if BTC has entered national strategic discussions, it remains an asset whose price is determined by the global market. Institutions may buy due to policy improvements, but also sell due to reduced risk budgets.
This situation is actually quite similar to gold.
Central banks holding gold long-term does not mean gold can only rise every day; the status as a national reserve provides a long-term demand foundation, not a short-term price guarantee.
What BTC truly gains is a change in the logic of its valuation floor.
In the past, the market worried whether BTC would be completely excluded from the financial system by major economies; now the more relevant discussion is how much the state, enterprises, and funds are ultimately willing to allocate. The former risk is decreasing, but the latter demand needs time to gradually form.
So when facing Trump's crypto-friendly stance, traders most need to distinguish three levels.
The first level is speeches and policy statements, mainly affecting short-term sentiment; the second level is regulatory rules and financial product implementation, determining whether institutions can enter; the third level is actual capital allocation, which changes supply and demand.
If you chase the price only based on the first level, you are likely to face a pullback after the positive news is realized; if you ignore the long-term changes of the second and third levels, you may underestimate the structural impact brought by BTC institutionalization.
Trump can bring BTC from a fringe asset into the political center, but the market will still price it based on interest rates, liquidity, and capital flows.
The most important change for $BTC is not that it will never decline again, but that with each decline, the number of buyers willing to study and allocate it is increasing.
Status determines whether it will stay at the table long-term; capital determines at what price it sits today. $OKB
Since August 7th, OKB has risen by 20 points, climbing from around 85 to a peak of about 105, and today it surged another 8 points. That's pretty strong, right?
Does anyone know what's going on? Please share.
Compared to Binance's BNB, the market cap of OKB, the platform coin of OKEx, is indeed too low. #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
The same world, different destinies; capital speaks with data, proving who is the biological mother and who is the stepmother.
At 8:30, July CPI was released. 3.4%, 2.5%, 0.1%—three numbers exactly on target, neither more nor less. According to the script, inflation cools down, rate hikes ease, risk assets should rise, and it should be a win-win situation.
Bitcoin $BTC moved first: surged to 64,400, then dropped back to 63,800 as soon as the data came out, giving back the entire $600 spike. Ethereum $ETH was even more straightforward, touched 1,924, then slammed down to 1,872 with no resistance. Two weeks of expectations were bought in advance; the data release became the signal to exit.
The US stock market showed a different pattern. SK Hynix rose 9%, SanDisk 5%, Seagate 7%, with the storage sector collectively igniting. SpaceX closed at $146, up 9.7% for the day, climbing nearly 40% from the low of 108. Gold was also strong, spot price touched 4,448, closed at 4,408, firmly holding the 4,400 level again.
The same CPI, but the crypto world reads "good news fully priced in," while the US stock market reads "soft landing confirmed."
Afterwards, each went its own way. Bitcoin hovered around 63,500, unable to hold 63,000, with no decent buyers below; US stocks and AI continue to surge, while Morgan Stanley already warns valuations are high. The warnings from both sides point in exactly opposite directions.
As for "digital gold"—this year gold $XAU is up 9%, Bitcoin down 11%, market behavior has long since diverged. Crypto native capital and leveraged traders are still on the sidelines or waiting for the "last dip," emotionally not yet fully recovered from the previous deleveraging and blowup shadows.
• Traditional/AI-related risk appetite funds are still chasing the currently more certain narrative feast, showing limited interest in assets like BTC that are "not yet started."
• Although macro and regulatory pressures have marginally eased, they are far from fully optimistic. As a result, the market is stuck in a stalemate where neither side wants to make the first move.
This stalemate itself is a window of opportunity. True consensus formation is often delayed—by the time everyone sees clear signals, the price has already completed the first leg. Those who position early bear the risks of "time mismatch" and "emotional isolation," in exchange for a better entry cost. Many of the biggest bubbles or leverage-driven bull markets in history have gone through the craziest phase, continuously squeezing shorts until the most well-known and stubborn short sellers in the market surrender, and only then does the rally truly approach its end.
When I judged the phase bottom at the end of July, I used the ETH surge in February this year as an example. The main force kept squeezing Yi Lihua until he finally couldn't hold on and surrendered, which instead became a signal for a phase bottom. After that, ETH rebounded and oscillated for three months before finally dropping again.
I think the logic is very similar with the US stock market this time, just with different players.
The phase bottom happened when Citadel crushed Leopold and took over his chips. For the phase top, I want to wait until big short sellers like Burry are forced to surrender before considering shorting.
Right now, Burry not only hasn't surrendered but is continuing to increase his short positions, so these shorts themselves are potential short squeeze fuel. As long as the trend and liquidity remain, the bulls have the motivation to keep squeezing the shorts higher.
So in a bull market, I think you shouldn't blindly short. Short-term shorts or corrections are fine, but don't stubbornly fight the trend just because the price has risen a lot.
Many times, a bull market doesn't end when valuations become reasonable; it ends after the shorts are squeezed out, until even the most determined shorts start doubting themselves and are forced to cover, and the bulls run out of new fuel and strength is truly exhausted, making the top easier to form.
Since Burry is still adding shorts, at least from this perspective, I think the short squeeze isn't over yet. Can $BTC break through 70000? This question has been flooding my inbox recently. I'll just share my judgment directly: bullish, no hesitation!
Why? Although the recent pullback is nerve-wracking, if you carefully analyze the structure, the lows are actually gradually rising, and each downward wave is weaker than the last. If this isn't bottoming out, then what is? Simply put, the bears are losing strength while the bulls are quietly gathering power. Reclaiming 64000 shouldn't be a big problem, and seeing 70000 this month isn't some fantasy—unless a black swan suddenly appears, the script will most likely play out this way.
As for $ETH, it’s still in a consolidation phase, but this range-bound movement is actually quite tradable, with swings of a dozen points or so that can be captured. The key is that the last two dips near 1891 were quickly pulled back, indicating there’s capital supporting this level, making the support quite strong. This afternoon it even surged to 1899, just shy of 1900, but then got pushed back down. Now it’s hovering around 1894-1896, unable to fall further.
Next, we’ll see how the U.S. stock market opening at 9:30 PM sets the tone. I’m still leaning bullish and feel that $ETH has a chance to push up tonight, so the 1910-1920 range is worth looking forward to!$SNDK hourly chart shows consecutive bearish candles, can it keep falling? Can it break below 1300? 🔥
The 1-hour chart has consecutive bearish candles, indicating short-term weakness. There's heavy selling pressure above, so it might dip further. But breaking below 1300 directly is something Mu Jie doesn't dare to imagine, because there was clearly big money supporting around 1311 before, so it's not easy to smash through in one go.
The short position at 1376 has now covered enough profit, so the mindset is relatively stable. The stop loss has already been moved to breakeven, so now it's just a matter of seeing if it goes to 1330 or 1320. Once it reaches there, exit in batches and don't be greedy for the last breath.
If you haven't entered the market, don't chase at 1352. Wait for a rebound first; catching a falling knife is pointless.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Putting aside the stars and the vast sea, is SpaceX's ultimate future value actually in AI?
Recently, SpaceX gained attention again due to the Starship launch, and everyone is marveling at Musk's hardcore space dream, believing that SpaceX's ultimate value must lie on Mars, in the vast universe. But the day before yesterday, while chatting with some friends in investment, I suddenly had a seemingly unorthodox thought: if we stretch the timeline long enough, SpaceX's greatest future value might not be in spaceflight, but in AI.
Sounds a bit far-fetched, right? How does a rocket maker become an AI company?
Think about it, rocket launches are cool, but they have physical and commercial limits. Even if Musk really cuts launch costs to rock-bottom prices, the global annual space launch market is only so big. Going to Mars is a grand story, but in the foreseeable future for our generation, it’s hard for it to become a highly profitable commercial closed loop.
So, why does Musk still desperately keep sending satellites into space?
Actually, Starlink is not just a simple space broadband router. From first principles, it’s actually the largest distributed server cluster wrapped around the Earth. The latest Starlink satellites are already trying to connect directly to phones, and with chip performance improvements, it’s only a matter of time before edge computing nodes and even AI inference chips are directly embedded into satellites.
What does this imply?
It means SpaceX is quietly building the world’s only physical AI network. Future advanced AI will not only require supercomputing power in the cloud but also ubiquitous low-latency connections and edge computing capabilities. Whether it’s autonomous driving, humanoid robots, or various IoT devices, they all need a communication backbone that spans oceans, deserts, and mountains. This distributed computing network in space can only be deployed by SpaceX at extremely low cost.
In other words, spaceflight is just the means; AI and data networks are the foundation that will continuously generate massive profits.
Moreover, SpaceX and Tesla are fully integrated at the technology base. The manufacturing of Starship and iterations of the Raptor engine heavily use AI for structural optimization and fluid simulation. Not to mention, if in the future Musk wants to send the humanoid robot Optimus to Mars as labor, he must train the top-tier physical embodied intelligence within SpaceX’s scenarios.
Spaceflight is SpaceX’s shell; AI is the flesh and bones quietly growing inside.
Space exploration provides the most extreme edge scenarios, and the algorithms and engineering capabilities trained in these scenarios, when applied to Earth’s physical industries, become an unbeatable dominance. Every rocket launch Musk sends into the sky is actually feeding the AI models on the ground with the most hardcore engineering data.
In short, the stars and the vast sea are humanity’s grand epic, but AI is the commercial cash flow that sustains this epic. SpaceX’s Starship is just a cargo truck transporting servers to space, while the Starlink network hanging in the sky is the AI brain of the future Earth and even multi-planet civilizations.
Here’s a question for you: if one day SpaceX’s Starlink computing network and Tesla’s robots fully merge, do you think it will become a real-life "Skynet" or the dawn leading humanity to interstellar civilization?
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% According to the latest Realized Cap RSI data, BTC has entered the low observation zone in the historical cycle.
(1) BTC has currently entered the historical low zone where RSI < 30.
(2) In this cycle, RSI reached a phase low of 13.02 on July 18, 2026. Compared to the lowest values of the previous three cycles, the temporary low in this cycle is still higher.
(3) Historically, in the 2015, 2018, and 2022 cycles, the Realized Cap RSI lowest points appeared later than the BTC price bottoms, lagging by 29 days, 67 days, and 63 days respectively.CPI has finally been released, meeting expectations.
Overall 3.4%, core 2.5%, roughly in line with market guesses. Once the data came out, the probability of maintaining the interest rate in September rose from 48% to 60%, with gold and BTC first rising then falling—a typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario.
In the short term, cooling inflation indeed allows the Fed to hold off on rate hikes for now, but long-term rates remain above 5%, with fiscal deficits and term premiums weighing. Tonight's PPI is the next key.
Back to $BTC. The CPI data gave a short-term breather, and the 65000 level is temporarily holding. But don't rush—data that meets expectations rarely drives a breakout. If tonight's PPI continues to cool, the market will start to truly bet on "the end of rate hikes."
Let's wait for tonight's PPI. No need to rush. #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 超额收益=发生可逆危机的好公司×被情绪错杀的极低股价×市场空间极大的增长潜力×耐心等待时间的平方 分析目的：寻找一家业务简单易懂且具有深厚护城河的使命愿景驱动型公司，由诚实且理性的管理层经营，交叉确认目前股价是否低于其内在价值的买入时机。 危机投资模型NO.134 今日投研标的——Securitize Corp.（SECZ） Securitize Corp.（SECZ）投研核心关键摘要 · Preview 报告日 2026-08-11 ｜ 当前价 6.92 USD（上一交易日 2026-08-10 收盘）｜ 成长性公司框架 ｜ 本摘要是 IC 报告与公开文章的浓缩继承版，供 3 分钟读懂核心。AI 给价值区间与研究结论。完整版见危机投资实验室！ 一句话核心 Securitize 是把股票、基金、私募信贷搬上区块链的「持牌管道公司」——业务质地过关、现金厚到不用愁生死，但现价 6.92 USD 几乎恰好坐在保守合理价值 7.0 USD 上，叠加 12 月底约 1.2 亿股解禁与已生效的 1.5 亿股转售注册悬在头顶：这是一个「好公司、无折扣、供给之墙在前」的组合，结论是观望，建仓纪律价 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh straightforwardly says that Goldman Sachs' $2.25 billion investment is worth it because they are not buying just a fund company, but an entry ticket to the "Bitcoin yield generation" sector. BlackRock allows Bitcoin to be bought, Goldman Sachs wants to make it "lay eggs."
Let's first look at the deal itself.
Goldman Sachs is acquiring NEOS Investments for up to $2.25 billion, with the transaction expected to close in Q1 2027. NEOS manages $30 billion across 19 options income ETFs, with the core asset being BTCI, a Bitcoin yield ETF with about $1.1 billion in assets that generates income by selling call options and has an annualized distribution rate of about 27%. Goldman Sachs' own Bitcoin covered call ETF has been delayed for a long time, and now by directly acquiring the sector leader, it effectively bypasses the "follow-the-trend" path and directly competes head-on with BlackRock's BITA.
But don't get dazzled by the 27% yield.
BTCI does not hold Bitcoin directly; instead, it holds spot ETPs and sells options to collect premiums. It can generate cash flow during Bitcoin sideways or mild uptrends, but its upside is capped during sharp rallies. Over the past year, BTCI's price dropped about 43%, with its net asset value falling nearly half from its peak. A high distribution rate does not equal high returns; part of the dividend comes from returning principal.
The real highlight of this acquisition is not BTCI itself.
In the past nine months, Goldman Sachs has acquired both Innovator and NEOS, pushing its ETF assets under management beyond $130 billion, making it the eighth largest active ETF manager globally. One focuses on downside protection, the other on yield enhancement, covering the two main derivative ETF strategies. This shows Goldman Sachs is betting not on Bitcoin's price direction but on Wall Street's structural demand for "monthly cash receipts"—retirement accounts over 55 years old need cash flow, which is a more urgent need than young people chasing quick riches.
For the Bitcoin ecosystem, this is deeper than spot ETF approval. Spot ETFs make Bitcoin "tradable," while yield ETFs make it "income-generating." These are two completely different types of capital—speculative capital versus allocation capital. If Goldman Sachs succeeds with this move, more institutions will follow, rewriting the participant structure and volatility characteristics of the crypto market.
Remember, Wall Street is packaging Bitcoin's volatility into wealth management products to sell. This is far more worth pondering than short-term price fluctuations!
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't lose its way! $BTC $ETH $OKB #高盛收购Neos，加密ETF转向收益竞争 #高盛收购Neos，加密ETF转向收益竞争
I think Goldman Sachs spending $2.25 billion to acquire Neos shows that the game rules on Wall Street in the crypto space have completely changed—it's no longer just about who holds more spot assets, but about who can generate other types of yield.
In the past, people bought crypto funds simply betting on price appreciation. But now, many traditional large investors find Bitcoin and Ethereum too volatile and they don’t pay interest regularly. Neos, which Goldman just bought, has a trump card product. It doesn’t hold coins directly but earns fees by selling options, then pays investors monthly. Simply put, it sacrifices some of the explosive upside for steady monthly cash flow.
The current MicroStrategy strategy involves selling some Bitcoin to pay interest, which actually has a significant impact on the stock price and investment. So Goldman’s approach is beneficial to the ecosystem. #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩
I believe this will make crypto capital more stable. Previously, crypto was dominated by retail and speculators who would dump at the slightest sign of trouble. Now Wall Street is turning Bitcoin and Ethereum into rent-generating assets, attracting steady, risk-averse retirement money. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices might not double as easily as before, but the risk of crashes will decrease, gradually becoming a ballast in people’s asset allocations.
1. Bitcoin: $BTC is currently around $63,800, in a consolidation phase. Don’t rush to chase highs. If the price drops near $62,000, consider buying in batches. If it falls below $60,000, it indicates poor market sentiment, so better to stay out for now.
2. Ethereum: $ETH is around $1,895. If the price rebounds to the $1,915–$1,940 range soon, avoid blindly chasing highs; consider gradually reducing positions or waiting. If it drops near $1,800, it’s a good long-term buying opportunity. But if it falls below $1,800, be cautious.
3. $OKB can be continuously dollar-cost averaged for long-term investment. The latest implied valuation of Anthropic on Stock Analysis is $826 billion USD
while Binance and OKX currently have pre-market contract implied valuations of $1.4 and $1.5 trillion USD respectively
Isn't this a clear money-making opportunity? 🤓
Although Stock Analysis cites data biased towards buyers,
considering the recent releases of Kimi and Grok,
Claude is no longer far ahead of other advanced models,
not to mention its costs are still several times higher.
Plus, Anthropic's recent series of brilliant moves
make Claude's future market share somewhat worrisome.
Looking at this implied price, the market may already be reacting to this.
$ANTHROPIC 📊 $XRP Contract Liquidation Express (August 13)
According to liquidation data, XRP shows a pattern of rapid directional switches in the short term and sustained dominance by bulls in the mid-to-long term, with a significant triple kill characteristic between bulls and bears:
· Short term (1H/4H): 1-hour bull liquidations at $193.44, bear liquidations at **$0, bulls completely monopolize but with very small volume; 4-hour bear liquidations at $48,300, bulls at $3,654.83, bears crush bulls by 13.2 times**, direction sharply reversed, a short squeeze concentrated at the 4-hour level. The short-term shows a clear dual kill characteristic between bulls and bears.
· Mid term (12H): Bull liquidations at $1,059,800, bear liquidations at $76,800, bulls crush bears by 13.8 times, direction reverses again, a nuclear-level bull kill breakout, liquidation volume about 22 times that of the 4-hour period.
· 24-hour period: Bull liquidations at $1,845,900, bear liquidations at $209,400, bulls crush bears by 8.8 times, cumulative liquidations exceed $2,055,300, bulls account for nearly 89.8%, a bloodbath for bulls, the bull kill momentum is unstoppable.
⚠️ Risk Warning: XRP short-term direction switches (1H bull kill → 4H short squeeze → 12H/24H bull kill), frequent bull-bear switches; the 24-hour bull kill multiple narrows compared to 12 hours (13.8x → 8.8x), caution is needed regarding changes in bull kill momentum. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, avoid chasing rallies or panic selling, strictly control position size and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 13
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: The AI narrative is undergoing a transition from "burning money" to "making money" through earnings validation, while the macro environment is simultaneously providing a window for this validation.
📊 July CPI Stable: September Rate Hike Expectations Cool Down
US July CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, month-over-month 0.1%; core CPI year-over-year 2.5%, month-over-month 0.2%, all three data points fully in line with expectations. Falling fuel prices are the main drag, gasoline prices down 2.9% month-over-month; food sub-items month-over-month increase narrowed to 0.1%, with previously supply-shocked lettuce and tomato prices plunging.
After data release, the probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from 48% two days ago to 36%. Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed Correspondent," pointed out this report "somewhat alleviates the pressure on the Fed to raise rates next month." The S&P 500 closed up 0.3%, near historic highs.
🏗️ AI Infrastructure Earnings Relay: Cloud Revenue Accelerates Across the Board
In Q2 earnings season, the three major cloud providers delivered strong results. Google Cloud revenue reached $24.8 billion, soaring 82% year-over-year, operating margin jumped from 20.7% to 35.6%; Microsoft Azure grew 43% year-over-year; Amazon AWS revenue hit $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year. All three cloud giants doubled or more their backlog orders. AI investment is forming a positive cycle of "capital expenditure → revenue → profit → reinvestment."
New AI cloud infrastructure leaders also exploded—Nebius core AI cloud business sales surged 514% year-over-year, stock price soared 34% in one day; CoreWeave disclosed $104 billion in backlog orders, stock price rose over 19%.
🚀 Musk: AI Will Account for 99% of SpaceX's Value
At the all-hands meeting, Musk boldly declared: AI revenue will surpass all other SpaceX businesses combined as early as September; within five years, AI will account for 99% of the company's value; SpaceX aims to build 10 GW of AI computing power by the end of next year, corresponding to annual revenue of $300 billion to $500 billion. SpaceX's current computing power is 1.4 GW. Boosted by this, SpaceX's stock price rose over 6%, rebounding more than 35% from recent lows.
💎 Summary
CPI landed moderately, September rate hike probability dropped to 36%, easing macro pressure temporarily; the three major cloud providers prove with over 35% operating margins that AI investments are paying off; Musk's declaration that "AI accounts for 99% of SpaceX's value" pushes the imagination of the AI narrative to new heights. When the macro window opens, the industry positive cycle is established, and the narrative ceiling is redefined—the AI track is moving from "storytelling" to fully "delivering results." #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% CPI is released, why doesn't Bitcoin rise?
US July CPI year-on-year is 3.4%, core CPI year-on-year is 2.5%, with a slight month-on-month increase.
Inflation is indeed cooling down. $BTC
June CPI was still 3.5%, July dropped to 3.4%, data basically meets market expectations.
But the problem is exactly here:
Meeting expectations means the market has already priced it in.
Without exceeding expectations, it's hard to bring new buying pressure. $ETH
After the CPI release, market concerns about a September rate hike have indeed eased, with the probability of a rate hike falling from nearly half to about 40%.
But don't get too excited yet.
A lower rate hike probability does not mean rate cuts are coming immediately.
Inflation is still above 3%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target.
So this CPI is more like:
Not getting worse, but not good enough for the Fed to pivot immediately.
What’s really worth watching is Bitcoin's reaction.
After the data release, BTC briefly surged less than 1%, then returned to oscillate around $63,000.
At the same time, US stocks, Nasdaq, and gold performed noticeably stronger.
What does this indicate?
It's not that macro fundamentals are gone, but the crypto market's own capital support is too weak.
Previously, a somewhat positive CPI could push BTC up 5% or 10% directly.
Now?
Data meets expectations, and BTC doesn't even have a decent breakout.
This is the most alarming point:
The market's demand for positive news is getting higher.
"Meeting expectations" is no longer enough.
You need to exceed expectations, give stronger rate cut expectations, bring real incremental funds, otherwise a single data point can hardly change BTC's current market structure.
So don’t just focus on CPI next.
$OKB
$63,000 is the key short-term lifeline.
Hold it, continue to oscillate, and wait for a new direction.
If broken, the downside space may open further.
CPI is not the end, just a midway stop.
Next stop: PPI.
The real market movement is often not decided at the moment data comes out, but by whether funds are willing to step in afterward.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% DOGE and PEPE are not competitors; they are more like two phases of the Meme market.
Whenever $DOGE rises, the market asks if the funds will rotate to $PEPE; whenever PEPE rises faster, people start discussing whether it will replace DOGE.
But the market structure of Meme coins may not be about the new king ousting the old king, but rather different assets responsible for different phases of the market.
DOGE carries the role of consensus confirmation.
It has existed for a long time, is well-known, and has deep liquidity. Almost everyone entering the crypto space has heard of it. For funds wanting to participate in the Meme market but unwilling to buy small-cap tokens immediately, DOGE is the easiest entry point to understand.
So at the start of the market, DOGE’s rise often means the market is willing to reprice Meme culture.
PEPE, on the other hand, carries the role of emotional acceleration.
When DOGE has already risen for a while, traders start to feel it’s too large and the odds aren’t high enough, so they look for targets with higher volatility. PEPE has strong internet cultural influence and is easier than DOGE to create price imagination, perfectly taking on this portion of funds.
This is why DOGE and PEPE can rise simultaneously without telling the same story.
DOGE sells the idea that "it has survived many cycles," while PEPE sells "it might be more suitable for this cycle."
But this division of labor quickly reverses when the market falls.
After risk appetite decreases, funds no longer prioritize who rises faster but consider who has deeper liquidity and who is more likely to survive the next bear market. At this time, DOGE’s years of accumulated recognition advantage becomes important again, while PEPE’s high volatility may lead to larger drawdowns.
So when trading both, the key is not debating which culture is superior but judging what phase the market is in.
If BTC has just stabilized and the Meme sector is starting to test the waters, DOGE is more like a confirmation indicator of emotional return; if DOGE surges with volume and more small coins become active, PEPE may enter a phase with stronger volatility.
There is also a frequently overlooked signal: if DOGE and PEPE rise but smaller Memes do not follow, it indicates funds may only be clustering around the leaders; if the heat continuously spreads to smaller caps, it means the market is entering a true speculative climax.
$DOGE determines whether the Meme market has a consensus foundation, and $PEPE determines how much the market is willing to amplify that consensus.
DOGE doesn’t need to rise the fastest; it only needs to convince funds that the Meme sector is back; PEPE doesn’t need to live longer than DOGE; it only needs to offer higher odds when emotions are strongest. [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh says it straight: The Harmony incident is no longer just a "problem," it's the prelude to a "funeral."
On August 12, the Harmony network was attacked. Hackers exploited a cross-shard receipt verification vulnerability to conjure up 3 trillion ONE tokens out of thin air in 6 abnormal blocks. You heard that right, 3 trillion, not 300 million.
At the price at that time, these coins were worth $234 million. The hackers immediately dumped 2.8 billion of them into exchanges, causing ONE's price to plunge from $0.00118 to $0.0005735, slashing nearly 50% without hesitation.
But the most absurd part isn't the attack itself, it's the accounting that looks like a dark joke:
Before the attack, the entire Harmony chain's market cap was only $17 million. After the attack, it dropped to just over $12 million, and its market ranking fell to 1004th.
Think about it: hackers attacked a chain with a $17 million market cap and ended up creating $234 million worth of coins.
The cost of the attack was 15 times more than the target's value.
What does this mean? It's like spending $1 million to blow up a $500,000 bungalow, then picking up $15 million in cash from the rubble — illogical, but it happened.
Harmony's response came in two steps:
Step one: plug the hole.
· Suspend the cross-chain bridge
· Release emergency patch v2026.1.1, requiring validators to upgrade
· About 53% of validators upgraded within 4 hours
· Locked 409 wallets that received abnormal coins, monitored 10,288 transfers, and alerted exchanges to intercept suspicious deposits
Step two: more drastic — rollback the blockchain.
This means restoring the chain to the state before the attack, invalidating all legitimate transactions after the attack as if they never happened.
The project team said this is the "most feasible solution currently" and has "reached consensus" with validators and exchanges.
But Pharaoh translates this as: to eliminate the fake coins created by hackers, they wiped out users' real transactions too. This move is called "curing the disease by burying the patient along with it."
And brothers, this isn't Harmony's first crash.
· In 2022, the Horizon cross-chain bridge was hacked for about $100 million
· In December 2023, a staking system bug again created 146 million ONE out of thin air
Same chain, same direction, repeatedly falling into the same pit.
What does this indicate? It means its underlying risk control isn't a vulnerability, it's a sieve.
Even if this rollback succeeds, then what?
Let's look at the data:
· Total DeFi TVL: $170,000
· 24-hour on-chain fees: less than $1
· Daily active addresses: 244
Pharaoh bluntly says: a chain with fewer daily active users than my WeChat workgroup and fees not enough to buy a soda.
What value support does a public chain token like this have, other than gambling on whether it will be "warmly welcomed" by hackers again?
Finally, Pharaoh leaves you with a saying:
Good trades are waited for, not rushed into.
This Harmony drama has little impact on the overall market but serves as a textbook warning:
Some projects can fall 99% and then fall another 99%.
You think you're bottom-fishing, but you're actually halfway up the mountain.
On-chain coin creation is faster than printing money, consensus is more fragile than instant noodles. Such projects are for watching, not for getting involved.
I am Pharaoh, see you next time. $ETH $BTC $OKB #Harmony推进链上回滚，铸币漏洞修复已激活 A certain address continues to increase its short position in BTC, currently holding 2,136 BTC (approximately $136 million), with a liquidation price of $64,592.3. The short position of this address is quite large and is still increasing.
Do you think this short position of 2,136 BTC will eventually be liquidated? Anthropic is still very powerful
Although it is undergoing government lawsuits and fierce competition from cost-effective models,
Anthropic's revenue growth rate still satisfies the investors
Rumor has it that the IPO could be as soon as October, with a target valuation possibly exceeding $2 trillion, potentially snatching the "largest IPO in history" title from SpaceX
Anthropic's confidence comes from growth.
The company was valued at $965 billion during its May financing, with annualized revenue exceeding $47 billion
Claude Code's annualized revenue exceeds $2.5 billion, with continuous growth in enterprise client contributions
Anthropic
Chatbot ❎
An "all-around employee" embedded in programming, office work, and core enterprise processes ✅
Especially, once clients build toolchains around the model, migration costs will become increasingly high
However, $2 trillion is still an aggressive valuation, roughly more than 40 times the current annualized revenue.
The market is essentially betting in advance that enterprise AI spending will continue to expand, Claude will maintain technological leadership, and inference costs will keep decreasing
Risks still exist
· Government disputes and copyright lawsuits may affect clients and compliance costs
· Cheaper models may divert general tasks
· Huge computing power investments mean high revenue growth may not necessarily translate into free cash flow
Therefore, the real question this IPO must answer is not whether Anthropic can continue to grow, but whether it can grow fast enough and earn enough to justify a $2 trillion valuation
#Anthropic加快IPO进程，AI估值进入验证期 $BTC $ETH
Should we go all in to bottom-fish at 60k for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin's previous three bear market cycles are quite similar in duration and decline (the largest red circle range in the chart). The declines were:
Cycle 1 (2011-2015): -86.9%
Cycle 2 (2015-2018): -84.1%
Cycle 3 (2018-2022): -77.6%
Looking at the chart, do you think 60k is the lowest point for Bitcoin in this cycle? BTC has been hovering around $62,000–$65,000 recently, with AI, US stocks, and gold taking turns drawing attention, leaving crypto somewhat sidelined.
On-chain data shows a large amount of chips settled between $61,000 and $65,000, especially dense around $63,000. My understanding is: some who wanted to leave have done so, and more people willing to buy at this level are emerging; the market is reestablishing a consensus on cost.
However, several factors suppressing the market are gradually easing: macro interest rate hike expectations are cooling down, Strategy's liquidity concerns are alleviating, and AI trading is also starting to cool off.
The current market feels like a "no man's land": crypto participants fear further drops, while outside capital is waiting for clearer signals. But by the time everything is confirmed, the comfortable entry points are often gone.
If you believe in BTC's long-term logic, observe this phase of low volatility, low attention, and continuous chip turnover closely.
The bottom is never a single point but a prolonged, testing period.
It may not be the bottom yet, but at least the market is undergoing some noteworthy changes $BTC
Personal analysis record, not investment advice "1880 Blocks Ethereum: CPI Has Cooled Down, So Why Can't ETH Hold Above 1900?" $ETH
On August 13, ETH traded narrowly between $1875 and $1895, slipping about 0.1% to 0.4% in 24 hours. After surging to 1934 in the early morning, it quickly retraced, failing to break the 1900 barrier for the third time.
With CPI falling from 3.4% and September rate hike expectations cooling, these should have been clear positives, but ETH didn't catch the boost—because it's not that there are no positives, but that the positives aren't strong enough. The US spot ETH ETF saw a net inflow of only $7.4 million on August 12, almost entirely supported by ETHA alone, which is nowhere near the tens or hundreds of millions seen previously. Without sustained ETF buying, who will chip away at the 2–3 month locked-in positions above 1900? $ETH
Technically, it's also complicated: Bollinger Bands range from 1839 to 1946, the daily ADX is weak, indicating a typical consolidation box with "declining downward momentum and no upward momentum." Short-term focus is on three levels:
Holding above 1900 with volume → only then can we talk about a rebound to 1920–1930;
Breaking below 1870–1880 → look down to 1850, and if broken, then 1820;
Oscillating in the middle → don't trade, it's just shaking out short-term positions.
In short: ETH isn't "unable to fall" right now, it's that "no one is willing to push it up."
Not investment advice. $ETH 🚨 In just a few days, the market narrative around the Federal Reserve has shifted again.
Remember a week ago?
The market was still betting: will there be another rate hike in September?
Now, a new variable has emerged.
📈 The probability of a September rate hike once surged to about 52%, while expectations for a rate cut have cooled significantly.
What ignited all this was the latest statement from Cleveland Fed President Harker:
"A 25 basis point rate hike may have limited impact, multiple hikes may be needed."
This is the signal to watch out for right now.
The market has never traded on "whether to hike rates today," but rather:
Will the future tightening path become steeper?
If rate hike expectations continue to strengthen, the next steps could be:
Dollar strengthening
⬇️
U.S. Treasury yields rising
⬇️
Risk appetite contracting
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BTC, growth stocks, and gold coming under pressure again
Especially $BTC
In the past week, Bitcoin ETF net inflows once hit a new high since April, but the market's fear and greed index has remained in the "fear" zone. Money is flowing in, sentiment is retreating, and bulls and bears are deadlocked around $64,000.
What BTC really fears is not high interest rates themselves, but the market suddenly repricing "higher and longer."
That risk is now returning.
So what to watch next is not just a Fed official's words, but:
Dollar + U.S. Treasury yields + BTC capital flows.
If these three start to simultaneously shift toward tightening,
then it’s not just a simple "September rate hike probability fluctuation."
It could mean:
The market is repricing a new round of tightening expectations.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #CLARITY延期，SEC拟推进监管规则补位 Going long on ETH — not just a gut feeling, the data speaks for itself.
Brothers, today no stories, no emotions, let's go straight to Catrix AI's data and speak with numbers.
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Today's AI rating is simple:
· BTC: Neutral ➖ 50/100 — unbiased, mostly watchful.
· ETH: Slightly bullish 📈 60/100 — not strong, but the direction is clear.
On the macro side, the real yield is 1.47, DXY is -1.02, the overall environment is still compressed, not fully loosened, but not worsening either.
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⚠️ Risk warning:
Tonight Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks (12:15 UTC). Around such events, volatility can spike unpredictably within an hour before and after. Brothers opening positions, remember to avoid this time window; don't be the unlucky one precisely targeted.
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Today's key focus: institutional fund flows — clear divergence on both sides.
First, look at Bitcoin:
· ETF 30-day net inflow: 16,714 BTC, 7-day also 1,197 BTC
· 30-day ETF z-score = 1.73, clearly positive, indicating institutional medium-to-long-term optimism
· But! Coinbase shows strong US sell signals, OTC deposits are also increasing
Summary: Long-term funds are coming in, but short-term US funds are selling. Both sides are fighting, so Bitcoin neither rises much nor falls deeply, just sideways.
Now look at Ethereum:
· ETF 30-day net inflow: 250,498 ETH, 7-day 64,737 ETH
· 30-day ETF z-score = 1.89, even stronger than Bitcoin
· But! Coinbase premium is -0.108, also showing US spot selling
The key difference: ETH's ETF inflow intensity is much greater than Bitcoin's. Even if US retail is selling, institutional accumulation strength still outweighs the selling pressure.
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The most critical question now is:
Is the short-term weekly outflow dominant, or will the 30-day institutional inflow trend ultimately win?
My judgment: The 30-day trend is more trustworthy. Institutional building positions is not a one- or two-day action; a 1.89 z-score is not casually achieved. Short-term selling pressure will eventually exhaust, while the power of the trend will gradually show.
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So my strategy:
Buy ETH on dips, don't chase the rally, wait for pullbacks to enter.
Keep Bitcoin steady for now, wait for ETH to show relative strength to confirm rotation. The data has given the direction; now it's just patience for the right entry.
#CatrixAI #ETHLongSignal #InstitutionalFundFlowDivergence #BuyTheDip Musk's casual remark sent me back ✌️ to square one
$SPCX
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
When setting up short positions, the core logic was to target the expectation of selling pressure from SpaceX's lifting of restrictions, originally expecting a pullback due to chip unlocking. But Musk directly stated that AI business would account for 99% of SpaceX's value in the future, instantly changing the market narrative, and funds immediately jumped in to buy the market, boosting the market's overall price
Many people trading small-cap contracts only focus on surface negative factors like unlocking and chips, but easily overlook one thing: narrative weight often overshadows fundamentals in the short term
I personally experienced how harsh high leverage can be. As long as funds rally through new stories, even slight negative fluctuations can quickly amplify floating losses. The strong neutral line is already very close, constantly testing your mindset
Now, the market is no longer just about trading and unlocking selling pressure; funds are beginning to price the potential for SpaceX's AI business in advance. For such small-cap stocks, the biggest fear is sudden statements from big players reshaping market consensus, with negative logic being directly overshadowed by short-term sentiment
The lesson this order taught me was straightforward: when it comes to anticipating unlocking in gaming, you must leave room for error in sudden narratives. Ultra-high leverage simply can't withstand such news shocks
I won't blindly increase my position to dilute the future; I'll hold my position for now
Shi
Small-cap themed contracts—never underestimate the combined capital force of a single sentence
Personal sharing only and does not constitute any investment adviceThe recent market divergence has really left people baffled.
SanDisk SNDK and SK Hynix continued to surge, with the AI storage sector remaining hot, but BTC and ETH have continued to weaken.
CPI data is neutral to positive, and while risk asset sentiment should be warming up, the crypto market has shown no positive feedback.
Let me talk about my own frustrating trades: I closed my already profitable long positions in SanDisk and Hynix, used the funds to supplement the Bitcoin margin, then opened a long ETH position, and got stuck as soon as I entered. Fortunately, it rebounded slightly, giving a slight sense of relief.
Right now, there are many bearish voices online saying that Bitcoin is about to drop to 58,000, which makes me anxious. My liquidation line is at 61,000, and I can't withstand the extreme drop.
Let me share a key understanding:
Don't assume that if U.S. stocks and tech rise, Bitcoin will rise in tandem.
SanDisk's strength is due to the fundamental market driven by tight supply and demand for AI storage;
BTC is more focused on liquidity expectations, and CPI just matches expectations with no surprises. The previously optimistic expectations have long been digested by capital, and a large amount of capital has been drawn away by the US AI sector.
Many people are wondering if Bing still has a chance to rebound to 68,000 in the future.
To break through previous highs, it must hold above the resistance zone while waiting for incremental ETF funds to flow back. The short-term volatility and tug-of-war will continue. Rationally view all extreme viewpoints, and holding your position bottom line is most important. #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool, #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings reports debut one after another 🦈 $BTC OGS just completed the most profitable cycle ever — what’s next?
📊 On-chain data is finally speaking up. Ki Young Ju’s data confirms what price trends have been hinting at for months — the real “true accumulation” this round didn’t happen on exchange order books. Instead, ETF inflows and Digital Asset Treasuries absorbed the supply; meanwhile, traders locked in unrealized profits at about 3 times near the 2021 peak. 💰
🔄 The market is now in a deleveraging phase. Prices are consolidating around traders’ average cost basis; on-chain leverage has dropped from 0.5 to 0.3 — still higher than pre-ETF levels. If institutional inflows restart, this leverage “knob” could turn again. 🦈
💡 The 2023 fractal is the script here: OG whales added positions near $16,000 because the buyer/seller ratio was screaming panic selling (crash). The biggest money quietly accumulates at cycle lows. 💬 Is the same “quiet accumulation” happening below your screen? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Please manage your risk carefully. 🛡️
🏷️ #BTC #WhaleWatch #SmartMoney #OnChain #Crypto$SPCX Yesterday's sharp rally in SPCX was not because the company suddenly became strong; essentially, it was a short squeeze caused by shorts being forced to cover their positions.
Previously, the market was betting that the unlocking would crash the price, with many people shorting and short positions piling up high. However, the selling pressure from the unlocking was not as large as expected. Coupled with Elon Musk hyping AI-related expectations, once funds pulled in, shorts couldn't hold on and had to hurriedly buy shares to cover, pushing the price higher and triggering a violent rebound.
But I still remain bearish; this is just a rebound, not a reversal.
First, the unlocking is only the first wave; there will be continuous chip releases afterward, with original shareholders holding plenty of chips waiting to sell at high levels.
Second, the valuation bubble remains large. The company has huge capital expenditures, the AI business has yet to turn a profit, and the current stock price is pricing in expectations far into the future.
Furthermore, during this rally, many institutions quietly sold shares while prices rose, attracting retail investors to chase highs and take over positions. The short squeeze came fiercely and will end quickly. Without solid fundamental support, the rebound is very likely to return to a downtrend afterward.
Trading advice: At the current level of 146, continue to be bearish, with the first target at 138🔪 and the second target at 132 Foreign capital and retail investors have taken completely opposite sides; foreign capital net bought 2.66 trillion KRW, while individuals are frantically selling (the sentiment purge is almost complete).
Large funds are picking up panic chips, and AI chips have once again become the clearest main focus.
SKHYNIX +7.38%, Samsung +5.48%, both heavyweight stocks pulling upwards together. As the chip exchange continues, the subsequent squeeze might be fiercer than the rebound.
Structurally, the U-shaped bottom followed by an upward move proves that the current 4-hour chart is already an early-stage bottom. It depends on whether the subsequent pattern can solidify the 1050 turnover node as support. Mid-term target is 1240. #July CPI stabilizes, September rate hike expectations cool down $SKHYNIX This afternoon, A-share gold concept stocks suddenly turned a bit cold. During the session, Xiaocheng Technology fell over 8%, Zhaojin Gold dropped over 6%, and Hunan Silver and Shengda Resources followed suit. Note, this is an intraday snapshot, not a closing verdict, but it's enough to make many people's hearts skip a beat. Who is affected? Not just those watching the market. It affects ordinary families who have recently been asking at counters whether gold jewelry is still worth buying, young people who constantly talk about "gold as a safe haven," and investors who believe "gold stocks should rise when gold prices rise." What needs to be checked now is not the phrase "gold is no longer attractive" in social media, but three things: how the spot price of gold will move, whether related companies' costs, output, and sales revenue have kept pace, and whether the market has previously bought gold stocks too fully or been too profitable. [A gold bar and a gold stock are not the same thing] Many people's understanding of gold comes from everyday life. Buy three gold coins for weddings, give a small lock to a one-month-old child, hold a gold bar in the elderly's hand, and check the price at the mall's gold counter during holidays. Gold is not just an asset in the daily lives of Chinese people, but also a sense of security. It's bright, heavy, and tangible to the touch, like a reassuring pill in a drawer. But the golden stock in the stock account is not the gold bar. Gold bars are more like raw materials and stores of value. Behind the golden stocks is a company. The company has to open mines, manage mining areas, bear labor, equipment, taxes, transportation, and sales costs, and also face fluctuations in output, business rhythm, and market valuations. It's like seeing pork prices rise at a market—not all meat vendors do the same