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USDT net decrease of nearly $4 billion over 60 days, it's too cold!
According to CryptoQuant data, the 60-day market cap change of USDT has dropped to about -$3.6 billion, with the 30-day moving average of this indicator even lower at -$4.88 billion. In the past 11 days, nearly $870 million USDT has disappeared from circulation.
This time it doesn't seem to be just funds switching from USDT to USDC, because USDC supply has also decreased by about 1.3% over the past 30 days, and the entire stablecoin market size has shrunk by about 0.6%.
This indicates that at least some funds are indeed leaving the on-chain crypto ecosystem, redeeming into dollars in banks or flowing into other traditional financial assets.
The on-chain cash pool in crypto is getting smaller, which means bottom-fishing funds, leverage collateral, and trading liquidity are all weakening.
However, looking back historically, previous extreme contractions of USDT often occurred in the latter half of major market downturns.
A similar situation happened at the end of 2022, after which Bitcoin completed a cycle bottom around $16,000.
CryptoQuant's observation of historical data also shows that the most severe USDT contraction phases tend to be closer to the exhaustion of selling pressure rather than the beginning of it.
So seeing USDT shrink now definitely isn't a short-term positive, but it might tell us another thing: the market has already gone through a considerable period of deleveraging and capital withdrawal. $BICO 我说过一定会崩盘，但是高杠杆做空一定死的非常非常快。 干嘛要碰这些垃圾呢？干嘛要把自己的财富押注在资金的流动呢？ $BICO 山寨币最典型的博傻游戏。最近BICO和TUT的走势展现的淋漓尽致，就是扶不上墙的垃圾。 BICO从2021年超过20美元一路跌到2026年的几美分，累计跌幅接近99.8%，7月底最低一度只有1美分左右，随后几天又突然出现数倍级别的反弹。 我想请你告诉我，如果你长持会怎么样呢？ 你会一毛都不剩。 只看最后的几倍暴涨，完全是愚蠢至极。 8月7日前后，BICO一天可以上涨70%以上，交易量同步放大，随后两天又可以跌掉四成左右。公司在这几天里没有突然创造几十倍利润，行业规模也没有在48小时里发生巨大改变，价格变化主要来自资金突然进入、杠杆增加、空头回补、追涨资金继续进入，然后买盘衰减，前期资金开始兑现。 TUT最近走得更加极端。8月初TUT在很短时间里上涨超过1000%，价格一度冲到0.24美元附近，随后又快速跌到几美分，整个过程只用了几天。上涨阶段成交量可以冲到数亿美元，未平仓合约快速增加，杠杆资金集中进入；价格开始回落以后，又出现大规模强平。 参与者在🚀 Elon Musk is once again pushing the AI narrative to another level.
During a SpaceX all-hands meeting, Musk reportedly said that within five years, AI could represent 99% of SpaceX’s value.
His vision goes far beyond rockets. SpaceX is aiming for 10 gigawatts of computing capacity by the end of next year, potentially generating hundreds of billions in annual revenue according to Musk’s projections.
The bigger idea is “ground training, space inference”—combining Starship, Starlink and massive AI computing infrastructure into one ecosystem. Rockets would no longer just carry satellites; they could become part of the infrastructure supporting the next generation of AI.
What does this mean for crypto? 👇
🤖 AI computing demand is still accelerating.
If the 10GW target becomes reality, demand for GPUs, chips and data-center infrastructure could remain extremely strong. Anyone waiting for computing costs to collapse may have to wait longer.
💰 Capital will continue flowing toward AI.
AI and DePIN projects could benefit from this narrative, but only projects with real infrastructure and actual usage are likely to stand out.
🔗 AI + crypto are moving closer together.
Space-based AI inference and decentralized computing are developing along different paths, but eventually these technologies could converge.
Musk’s vision may sound ambitious, but SpaceX, Starlink and Tesla’s AI infrastructure show that he has a stronger track record of turning big ideas into real systems than most speculative projects.
For traders, however, this is a long-term narrative, not an overnight trade.
The AI industry is still developing, and in my view, the biggest part of the AI-driven market cycle may still be ahead. 🚀
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $TAO $RENDER
#AIInfraEarningsWatch
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound
#SpaceX99%ValueFromAI 🚨 CRYPTO HAS A WARNING SIGNAL: GOOD NEWS ISN’T MOVING PRICE.
The market keeps receiving positive catalysts, yet prices remain stubbornly range-bound.
$BTC is still stuck around $63K–$64K, while $ETH continues struggling below the key $1,900 resistance level.
We’ve seen renewed spot ETF inflows, expectations for a potentially more accommodative Fed if inflation continues cooling, and a relatively stable macro backdrop.
Yet buyers still aren’t stepping in aggressively. 👀
That tells me the market is still defensive and selective.
Instead of chasing every bounce, investors appear to be waiting for stronger confirmation from economic data, the Fed, ETF flows, and liquidity before taking on more risk.
📉 BTC: Repeated attempts toward resistance are being met with profit-taking.
📉 ETH: Continued rejection below $1,900 is weakening its relative-strength story and could limit the next rotation into L1s, DeFi, and AI-related projects.
💧 Liquidity: Trading volumes remain muted, suggesting fresh capital hasn’t returned with enough conviction.
And there’s another factor: U.S. AI and technology stocks continue competing for the same risk capital.
The biggest warning may be this:
If good news can’t push price higher, the market may need a much stronger catalyst.
That catalyst could come from:
🔹 A clearer Fed rate-cut path
🔹 Stronger global liquidity
🔹 Accelerating ETF inflows
🔹 A decisive BTC breakout with volume
🔹 ETH reclaiming $1,900 and showing relative strength
Until then, the range remains the range.
Don’t confuse positive headlines with bullish confirmation.
Sometimes the best trade is simply waiting for price to prove the story.
$BTC $ETH
#CPIInLineFedWatch #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #Gold4400HavenBid #Bitcoin #Ethereum11Years #CryptoEarningsPressure #黄金维持高位，机构年末仍看涨 Family, gold is fluctuating near the high level of $4380. The recently released CPI data cooled down, easing the pressure for rate hikes, and the gold price has also stood at this level. A survey by LBMA of 16 analysts shows the median year-end gold price forecast is about $4500, with mainstream expectations still leaning higher, but the range is quite wide, from $3879 to $5100. This indicates institutions agree on the direction but are uncertain about the magnitude.
The driving logic hasn't changed. Central bank gold purchases continue, geopolitical risk demand hasn't disappeared, and weak employment has lowered rate hike expectations, all supporting gold. However, the high US dollar and long-term US Treasury yields limit the upside. Whether gold pushes higher from this level or waits for a pullback depends on upcoming data.
For the crypto space, whether gold and BTC can strengthen simultaneously depends on whether the gold price rise is driven by liquidity improvement or risk-averse funds. If it's liquidity improvement driven by rate cut expectations, both are likely to rise together. If it's driven by geopolitical risk aversion, BTC may not follow much since liquidity hasn't substantially improved.
At this point, gold has taken the lead. Whether BTC can catch up depends on whether subsequent macro data can continue to support the warming of rate cut expectations. What do you think about this round of gold's rise—is it driven by liquidity improvement or risk aversion? Let's discuss in the comments. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $XAU $BTC $ETH The US July CPI fully met market expectations this time, with inflation data landing neutrally, directly weakening the Federal Reserve's motivation to raise interest rates in September, but not completely closing the rate hike channel.
1. Core Inflation Data
1. Overall CPI year-on-year at 3.4%, core CPI year-on-year at 2.5%, both month-on-month meeting expectations;
2. Positive components: Energy continues to decline, gasoline down 2.9% month-on-month, suppressing overall inflation;
3. Stubborn components: Housing costs remain the biggest drag on inflation, accounting for two-thirds of the monthly inflation increase, which is the core reason the Federal Reserve cannot fully turn dovish.
2. Changes in Rate Hike Probability
Before data release, the probability of a September rate hike was 51.2%, falling to 40.1% after release; the probability of maintaining rates in September is close to 60%. Rate hike expectations have cooled but have not been completely eliminated; upcoming August nonfarm payroll data remains a key variable.
3. $BTC Market Movement Review
A classic "boot drop" scenario: the data release first triggered a short-term sell-off, then a quick rebound, followed by consolidation.
Price trajectory: fell from around 65000 to 63500, rebounded to 64500, and finally closed at 63400.
Logic: The market concentrated on short-term position liquidation; after the long-short turnover, funds gradually entered in batches.
4. Short-term Trading Ideas
1. Range judgment: BTC is oscillating and consolidating in the 64000-65000 range short-term, with 65000 as a strong resistance level;
2. Operation taboo: Avoid chasing longs at high levels, as chasing highs is prone to getting trapped;
3. Optimal strategy: Wait for price to pull back and stabilize before entering with light positions;
4. Macro outlook: As long as August nonfarm payroll data does not exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve is basically certain to pause rate hikes in September.
CPI landed neutrally, significantly reducing the possibility of a September rate hike but not completely ruling it out. The crypto market will maintain wide-range oscillation short-term; patiently wait for stabilization at low levels before opening positions, and avoid blindly chasing gains. Inflation data has temporarily settled; focus will shift to US employment data going forward.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
#CLARITY延期，SEC拟推进监管规则补位
#Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化 The Korean stock market rebounded more than twenty points in ten trading days, sweeping away the previously pervasive pessimism. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, and other storage giants all surged, with market heat even triggering a pause mechanism for programmatic buying orders. The logic behind this strong recovery after this sharp drop is very clear: the pace of global AI capital spending has not slowed, and memory chips remain in a super-cyclical channel. The deep oversold caused by previous liquidations has sparked this round of spring-style valuation recovery. But to get to the essence, Korean stocks, which are highly tied to chip giants like SK Hynix, can be seen as a lever amplifier for the global AI hardware market. In the short term, high-level fluctuations will increase significantly. After the emotional recovery phase ends, the market's driving force will shift from capital speculation to earnings realization. The sector concentration is extremely high; even slight fluctuations in overseas stocks like Micron amplify the volatility of the Korean market. The fundamentals of the storage sector still provide support, the tight supply of HBM continues, and general storage supply and demand are also improving; As long as Samsung and SK Hynix deliver their next two earnings reports meeting their targets, their stock prices will have a solid bottom. The entry of long-term institutions like Temasek also shows that capital is optimistic about the irreplaceable value of storage leaders in AI infrastructure, with sustained long-term capital continuing to support during the correction. Ultimately, the Korean stock market depends on the capital expenditures of Silicon Valley giants. There is no need to be affected by short-term sharp price fluctuations; the core focus is to track North American manufacturers' procurement budgets and the mass production progress of next-generation HBM. Risk Warning: Sharing only ideas, not investment advice, no inappropriate guidance, in compliance with the Community Charter $BTC $ETH $SNDK #芯片股领涨Still the same issue—the price of gold has risen, but BTC is not following. The correlation between these two assets has been breaking down recently. Gold is pricing in rate cut expectations and safe-haven logic, while BTC is still dealing with its own matters. The CLARITY Act is progressing slowly, stablecoin liquidity is contracting, miners are still offloading, and macroeconomic positives have to clear several hurdles first.
This situation depends on the driving logic behind gold's rise.
If it's driven by expectations of improved liquidity, it will eventually spill over to risk assets, and BTC will benefit. If it's purely safe-haven funds accumulating, it has little to do with BTC and might even divert funds away. Currently, both factors are at play: rate cut expectations are indeed pushing, and geopolitical risk aversion is also a factor. Only the former is a real positive; the latter is just emotional disturbance.
Here’s my take. Gold holding steady at 4400 at least indicates macro expectations haven't worsened. BTC is currently not very volatile, trading sideways, lacking its own catalyst. Gold rising is good, but it doesn't mean BTC will immediately follow. When BTC's own narrative kicks in, that will be the real resonance.
#黄金维持高位，机构年末仍看涨 $BTC Brothers, CLARITY has been pushed back again, and the familiar show in the crypto world is back: repeated back-and-forth at the conference table, and people next to the K-line applauding the bill first. All I can say is, the document hasn't landed yet, but someone is already looking for a champagne glass.
What concerns me more is that the SEC isn't just sitting and waiting. The current explanations have already encountered issues with protocol staking, airdrops, and asset wrapping, and new rules are also on the agenda. For Ethereum, how staking services and project financing are written is more substantial than just two extra “positives” in the headline.
We're all bros here, first look at the boundaries of the rules, then see how the market prices it. Does the bill delay leave a gap, or will the regulatory agencies pave the way themselves? That's what we should focus on today.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and pay attention to risks. #$ETH $XNVDA Jensen Huang answers investors' most feared question about chip depreciation
The powerful A100 fleet remains mission-capable from 2020 to 2029. NVIDIA computing is far more than just chips. CUDA provides a common platform for developers and NVIDIA engineers to continuously upgrade Ampere, Hopper, and Blackwell throughout their lifecycle.
CUDA gives NVIDIA computing versatility. Versatility enables interchangeability, which drives higher utilization and extends durability, making NVIDIA computing a productive asset: rentable, durable, and financeable.
Personally, I believe it’s more than that. High-end chips meet high-end industry demands. If these chips depreciate, they can meet lower-end industry demands, such as automotive and machinery, where actual service life far exceeds estimates. I am quite optimistic about this. #芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22% #AIInfraEarningsWatch AI infrastructure companies continue reporting exceptional growth. Lumentum, CoreWeave and Supermicro each delivered revenue increases above 90%, while Nebius reported year-on-year growth of more than 450%. Coherent grew approximately 34% and issued stronger-than-expected guidance, while Cisco delivered double-digit revenue and earnings growth. Together, the reports show demand spreading across cloud computing, servers, optical connections and networking equipment.
However, investor tolerance for high spending is declining. Nebius reportedly spent $5.7 billion on quarterly capital expenditure, while Coherent shares fell after hours despite beating forecasts. Applied Materials is the next major test because its results can show whether semiconductor-equipment demand is keeping pace with the broader AI buildout. My view is that the AI infrastructure cycle remains fundamentally strong, but revenue growth alone is no longer sufficient. Investors increasingly want expanding margins, backlog conversion and evidence that today’s enormous investments will produce sustainable free cash flow. It has been sideways all day. Can $BEAT pull off a big bullish candle today? According to my prediction, I feel it's unlikely; it probably won't rise back to 2.0.
The average entry price is 1.0428, current price 0.9709, down 20.67%. It dropped from over 4 all the way down to 0.9, a nearly 80% decline. It has been stuck here almost all day with volume shrinking like a construction site shutdown. Although selling pressure has weakened, buying hasn't picked up either. The resistance from 1.1 to 1.5 is all trapped positions. How much capital would it take to push it back up?
On August 1st, 21.25 million tokens were unlocked, worth 68 million USD, accounting for 6.9% of the circulating supply. The triple hit of unlocking sell-offs, leveraged liquidations, and panic selling directly crashed the price. The project team still holds a large amount of tokens not yet sold. Do you expect them to pump the price to help you break even? If they don't dump, that would be considered polite.
This position is indeed oversold, and a technical rebound could come at any time, but returning above 2 in the short term is very difficult. Only when volume increases and it stands above 1.1 will it indicate real capital entering. Before that, all rebounds might be bull traps.
I'm still holding, but I know clearly—it's hard to break even this round. Not fighting for bread but for dignity; I'll leave once it bounces!
$SNDK $ETH
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 A large whale I monitor on the Hyperliquid chain just made a move again.
This account manages $26M, holding 59 positions across various coins, acting like a market maker. Historically, it has made 1746 trades with a 60% win rate and a total profit of $1011. In the last 10 trades, it won 7; in the last 20 trades, it won 15. Status is online.
This time, it did two things.
Added $65K to a $BTC long position, current position $6.33M, 20x leverage, entry price $63,740, unrealized profit $8444.
Reduced $70K from an $ETH short position, current position $23.33M, 15x leverage, entry price $1886, unrealized loss $106K.
Adding longs while reducing shorts. Direction shifted from bearish to bullish.
But interestingly, its historical performance on these two coins is worlds apart.
$BTC has a 100% win rate, 8 wins out of 8 trades, cumulative profit $105K. This is its most stable coin.
$ETH has a 0% win rate, 208 losses out of 208 trades, cumulative loss $3862. This is its biggest losing coin.
With a 60% overall win rate, it adds to its most profitable coin and stubbornly holds onto its biggest losing coin. The $ETH short position of $23M remains open, with an unrealized loss of $100K still being held.
This time the direction turned bullish, but the $ETH short position didn’t exit, indicating it’s not truly bullish, just testing the waters on $BTC.
I’m watching its $BTC position. If it continues to add, the bullish signal for $BTC is confirmed. If the $ETH short position starts to significantly reduce, that would be a real bullish turn.
No rush now.
#Hyperliquid #OnChainWhale #BTC #ETH#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
I now have to change my understanding of SpaceX:
The market may no longer value it as a "rocket company" in the future.
Elon Musk recently said directly:
In the next 4–5 years, AI could account for 99% of SpaceX's value, and AI revenue is even expected to surpass other space businesses as early as September.
This is not just storytelling.
In Q2, SpaceX's AI revenue already reached about $2.56 billion, and the company's next goal is to expand AI computing power from the current approximately 1.4GW to 10GW by the end of 2027.
The market has also responded:
SPCX is currently about $146, up nearly 10% in a single day, reclaiming the $135 IPO price.
My judgment:
Above $135, I remain bullish.
If it can hold above $150 later, I will continue to raise my mid-term expectations.
But the biggest risk is also clear:
AI is currently burning cash fiercely as well.
So 99% is just Musk's target, not a value that has already been realized.
What really needs to be verified is:
Whether AI revenue can grow faster than capital expenditure.
In short:
Buying SpaceX used to mean buying rockets and Starlink.
In the future, the market may be buying—
a super infrastructure company that owns rockets, satellites, computing power, and AI models.
$XSPCX Why is SanDisk $SNDK the only one rising in the storage sector today?
I believe there are several reasons:
1. The company's latest financial report remains outstanding. Revenue reached $8.97 billion, a record high, with data center business driven by AI demand growing 103% quarter-over-quarter to $2.98 billion.
2. Real cash stock buybacks. SanDisk repurchased about $4.5 billion worth of shares last quarter and still has $14.5 billion in buyback capacity.
3. Clear industry trend. The NAND market size is expected to grow from $300 billion in 2026 to $500 billion in 2027, and the company currently has demand visibility locked in for over four years.
Finally, SanDisk's previous stock price pullback does not equal a weakening of fundamentals; it might actually be the opposite~#高盛收购Neos，加密ETF转向收益竞争
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Goldman Sachs acquired Neos for $2.25 billion, not to buy an ETF shell, but to buy a "machine that squeezes BTC volatility into monthly cash flow."
Neos manages about $1 billion in BTCI, claiming a 27% annualized return, relying on holding ETPs and selling covered calls to collect rent, earning premiums during sideways markets and passing on upside during surges—this is exactly the logic behind Goldman Sachs not developing in-house but directly acquiring and jumping on BlackRock's BITA: saving three years of cold start by taking an existing team, channels, and pension client base.
In the mid-term view, the main trend in crypto ETFs has shifted from "who has the lowest fees and beats spot" to "who packages volatility into income." With high interest rates, advisors' primary task has become "creating cash flow," making covered call/buffer strategies the new battleground for asset management. After Innovator, Goldman Sachs acquired Neos, pushing the options income platform to 130 billion, securing the eighth position.
But a reminder: 27% is not free. BTCI's net asset value has dropped over 40% in the past year; sharp rallies causing missed gains plus principal erosion are hidden risks. The mid-term opportunity lies in "expansion of income-oriented crypto ETFs + implied volatility repricing," while the risk is product underperformance versus spot during steep bull runs triggering redemptions. In this game, Wall Street sells the cash flow narrative, not coin-denominated faith.
$BTC
$ETH [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh taps the blackboard: Tonight's SanDisk "Investor Day" is basically a "comeback battle" to save the stock price.
The stock price has nearly halved; if they don't deliver something real, the market will turn its back on them in no time.
Let's first review how "split-minded" SanDisk is right now—
The earnings report data is as fierce as if they drank Red Bull: revenue of $8.965 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, and a gross margin hitting 84.6%. Slap these numbers on the table, who wouldn't shout "awesome"?
But the stock price? It’s been a "plunge-style" halving since the June peak.
Why? The market’s verdict in two words: no trust.
Is your profit really from AI daddy feeding you, or just an illusion created purely by price hikes?
Breaking it down, only one-third of the revenue growth comes from shipment volume, the other two-thirds are all from price increases. Once price hikes stop, profits immediately "show their bare face." Plus, NAND supply is easy to ramp up, prices cool down faster than bubble tea. Morningstar bluntly said—"Supply will come sooner or later, don’t blame the market for flipping faster than a page in a book."
So tonight, SanDisk must clearly explain these three things:
First, is the 84.6% gross margin a "limited-time skin" or a "permanent skin"?
The last earnings guidance missed the mark, triggering Wall Street PTSD. If management dodges again tonight, the market will treat you like a "one-season wonder."
Second, how thick is the wall of long-term contracts?
It’s said that long-term contracts lock in 80% of contract gross margin. The longer the lock, the further the cycle. If they can reveal the long-term contract details tonight, that would be the strongest slap to the "cycle peak believers."
Third, when will the new chips actually hit the market?
Yesterday, they just launched a 2Tb new flash memory with Kioxia, with a 33% speed boost, specially designed for AI data centers. Sounds great, but mass production timing and revenue contribution must be clearly stated tonight—no more pie-in-the-sky promises.
Interestingly, the capital market is already quietly betting "no bombshell tonight"—
The stock price has rebounded over 6% from the low, 13 out of 16 analysts say "buy," and Bank of America is the most aggressive, setting a $2500 target price, clearly doubling down on AI infrastructure.
Pharaoh sums it up:
Tonight is SanDisk’s "watershed moment"—success means reassurance; failure means a bear party.
Pharaoh has already gone long, waiting for shareholders to start bragging 😏
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won’t get lost! $BTC $ETH $SNDK #芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22% Oil Isn't the Story. Inflation Is.
Negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.
While discussions continue over shipping arrangements, sanctions, transit rules and insurance requirements, markets have already responded by rebuilding geopolitical risk premiums into oil prices.
At first glance, this appears to be an energy story.
In reality, it's a monetary policy story.
Higher oil prices can feed into inflation expectations.
Persistent inflation makes it harder for central banks to ease monetary policy.
And tighter financial conditions generally weigh on liquidity—the single most important driver of risk assets over the past several years.
That's why crypto investors should pay attention.
Bitcoin doesn't trade on tanker traffic.
But it does respond to changes in global liquidity, interest-rate expectations and investor risk appetite.
Sometimes the biggest crypto catalysts originate thousands of miles away from blockchain networks.
Markets are no longer watching whether a deal is announced.
They're watching whether commercial shipping can actually normalize.
Execution—not headlines—will determine what comes next.
Do you think geopolitics has become one of the most underappreciated drivers of crypto markets?
Share your thoughts below 👇 #HormuzDealUnresolved 🤑 CPI DIDN’T BREAK THE RANGE — SO WHAT NOW?
The latest U.S. CPI print has been absorbed, but the market reaction remains measured rather than explosive.
$BTC is still trading around the $63K–$64K zone, while $ETH is holding near $1.88K–$1.90K. The initial post-CPI move pushed crypto higher, but the real test is whether buyers can sustain the momentum.
The bigger story is positioning and liquidity. 👀
Bitcoin remains trapped inside the broader $62K–$66K range, with institutional ETF demand helping absorb selling pressure.
After an earlier five-day streak that brought roughly $853.5M into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, flows cooled sharply. August 11 saw only around $4.9M in net BTC ETF inflows.
So what matters next?
🔹 Can BTC reclaim the upper end of the range?
🔹 Can ETH hold above $1.88K and regain momentum?
🔹 Do ETF inflows accelerate again?
🔹 Does liquidity finally rotate into higher-beta altcoins?
Until the range breaks, I’m treating every move as positioning—not confirmation.
CPI can move the market. Liquidity decides whether the move lasts. 📊
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #CPI #FedWatch #CryptoStocksLeadRally #AIInfraEarningsWatch
#SpaceX99%ValueFromAI ADA and XRP are often disliked by veteran players, so why do people still buy them in every market cycle?
In the eyes of many crypto-native players, $ADA and $XRP are somewhat "outdated."
They don't have the strong on-chain transaction atmosphere like Solana, nor the high odds brought by new Meme coins. New public chains and applications appear in the market from time to time, but ADA and XRP always revolve around those familiar narratives.
But strangely, they manage to re-enter the public eye in every market cycle.
The reason may be that the crypto space is not only made up of people who use DeFi and on-chain wallets daily but also includes a large number of ordinary investors who learn about cryptocurrencies through trading platforms.
When these people return to the market, they may not know the latest protocols but are very likely to remember the names they heard in the previous cycle.
Brand memory is an asset that is hard to reflect in on-chain data.
New coins need to constantly spend money to buy attention, while ADA and XRP only need some hotspot to reactivate old recognition, which can quickly generate trading volume. They may not have the most active users but have a huge potential audience.
The reasons they attract funds are not exactly the same.
XRP's story is closer to traditional finance: cross-border payments, bank partnerships, regulation, and ETFs. Investors are buying the possibility of crypto assets entering the existing financial system.
ADA relies more on a long-term community, technical roadmap, and the narrative of "slow but still building." Holders are buying into a public chain experiment that has survived multiple cycles.
The biggest advantage of this type of asset is that it won't be easily forgotten by the market, while the biggest weakness is that survival is easily mistaken for growth.
Staying on the market cap list only proves that consensus still exists; to achieve long-term revaluation, real users, applications, payments, or token demand need to change.
So when ADA and XRP suddenly rise in each cycle, two situations should be distinguished.
One is capital rotation: after BTC and mainstream coins rise, the market looks for established assets that haven't started yet but have high enough recognition. This kind of rise can be fierce but its sustainability depends on the overall market.
The other is fundamental changes: institutional entry, real adoption, or ecological data start to change the market's long-term judgment of them. This kind of market may not rise fastest on the first day but is more likely to raise the valuation baseline.
Old coins are not naturally without opportunity, and new coins do not naturally represent the future.
The real chips of $ADA and $XRP are not that they are more advanced than new projects, but that they have survived countless discussions of "about to be eliminated."
The market can temporarily forget an old coin, but it is hard to completely eliminate an asset with global recognition and a long-term holder base.Tonight the PPI data will be released. Will ETH rise or fall?
To be honest, no one dares to guarantee the answer to this question. But we can logically analyze it to have a clear understanding.
PPI itself does not directly determine the rise or fall of $ETH; it influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, which then affect risk assets. The data released tonight at 20:30 is expected by the market to show a year-over-year drop from 5.5% to 4.9%, and a month-over-month rebound from -0.3% to +0.2%. July's CPI has already confirmed a cooling trend, so tonight everyone is focusing more on the monthly rate—if it exceeds 0.2%, it indicates upstream cost pressures remain, which is not good news.
A simple deduction of three possible scenarios: if the data is below expectations, inflation continues to cool, and the "no rate hike in September" expectation will be further confirmed, $ETH could see a 7%-12% rebound; if it basically meets expectations, it will be neutral to slightly positive, resonating with CPI as a "double mild" effect but with weaker strength; if the monthly rate rebounds beyond expectations, cost pressures on the corporate side have not eased, rate hike concerns will return, and $ETH will likely take a hit.
Currently, $ETH is fluctuating narrowly between 1870-1890, with a weak technical outlook. Last night's CPI good news only triggered a brief pulse before fading, indicating everyone is waiting for the PPI release before making moves. After the data comes out, there will likely be significant volatility.
One more detail to mention: initial jobless claims data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches are also scheduled for tonight. If employment data is too strong or officials turn hawkish again, even good PPI data might be overshadowed. So my advice is simple—first see how the data unfolds, don't rush to bet on the direction. Wait for the first wave of sentiment to settle and the trend to become clear before acting, to be prudent.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 In-depth Observation of the AI Storage Industry Chain: Why Storage Becomes the Industry Bottleneck Under Computing Power Expansion
With the continuous iteration of global generative AI and large-scale construction of intelligent computing centers, the market focus has long been concentrated on GPU computing power. An invisible main line—the AI storage industry chain—is reshaping the semiconductor supply and demand landscape. Nvidia executives have repeatedly stated publicly that insufficient memory supply has already limited the large-scale deployment of large model training and inference.
The demand for storage in AI scenarios fundamentally differs from traditional internet business. Large model training requires large-capacity, high-bandwidth HBM; online inference faces massive random read/write demands of small files, with extremely high requirements for latency stability. The industry is gradually forming a layered architecture: HBM, server DRAM, enterprise-grade SSD, and cloud storage each play their roles, with distinct prosperity levels emerging across different sub-sectors.
Supply-side contradictions are very prominent. Major storage chip manufacturers have long expansion cycles, with new capacity concentrated to be released after 2027. Leading cloud providers have already signed long-term locked-price supply agreements with storage companies, prioritizing capacity locking, further intensifying the tight supply and demand in the spot market. In contrast, consumer-grade storage demand recovery is relatively weak, presenting a structural market of "two extremes."
This industry chain also has indirect connections with the crypto market: AI technology development promotes the implementation of on-chain AI agents and decentralized computing power projects, with ongoing exploration of Web3 and AI integrated applications. Capital's long-term optimistic narrative on AI infrastructure will also indirectly affect the overall risk appetite of the technology sector.
Industry cycles, technological iteration, and geopolitical supply chain risks are all variables that cannot be ignored. Demand prosperity does not mean the industry will always rise; once AI capital expenditure slows down, storage demand logic will quickly adjust.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $BTC $BEAT $ETH CPI Meets Expectations: How Long Can the Fed's "Delay Tactics" Last?
The US July CPI data released last night showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with core CPI dropping to 2.5%, almost exactly matching market expectations. Once the data came out, many analysts started celebrating, thinking the inflation situation was settled. But I believe that behind this seemingly safe report lies a warm bed woven by the Fed's "delay tactics," and the market might be celebrating a bit too early.
The most puzzling question now is whether the Fed will choose to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% at the September meeting or if there is still a chance of a rate hike. Looking at CME interest rate futures data, about 40% of people are still betting on a rate hike, making the market nervous.
In my view, the actual probability of a rate hike in September is very low; maintaining the current rate is the Fed's path of least resistance.
The Fed is currently at a dilemma. On one hand, recent employment data and unemployment indicators are clearly worsening, and the warning signs of a recession are faintly audible. In this situation, continuing to raise rates with a stern face would be like deliberately crashing into the recession wall. On the other hand, the 3.4% CPI is still quite far from the Fed's 2% inflation target, and the painful lesson from the 1970s—when premature rate cuts led to a resurgence of inflation—still haunts the Fed's meeting rooms like a ghost.
Therefore, keeping the current rate unchanged has become their only balancing act.
This explains why about 40% of the market is still wary of a rate hike. This is not because economic data supports a hike but because the Fed is actively managing expectations. Powell and his team know very well that if they show even the slightest dovish hint, the financial markets will immediately surge, prematurely draining liquidity. To prevent the previous tightening efforts from being undone, they must use hawkish verbal threats to forcibly keep the possibility of a rate hike on the table. This tough talk is precisely the insurance bought for "holding steady" in September.
But this "sense of security" from maintaining rates may be a slow bleed for the crypto market.
Everyone needs to be alert to a hidden logic: when inflation is slowly declining from 3.5% to 3.4% or even lower, but the Fed's policy rate remains stuck in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, it means real interest rates are continuously rising. In other words, even if the Fed does not hike rates in September, real liquidity in the market is still quietly tightening further.
For Bitcoin and the overall crypto market, until the Fed truly opens the door to rate cuts, the macro-level liquidity ceiling is locked. This is why the market has recently been rallying and then falling back, lacking the deep momentum for sustained upward movement. In the coming September, we will most likely continue to endure this "extreme cold volatility" and wide oscillations.
Hold onto cash, control your spending, and don't rush to fire all your bullets before the Fed's delay tactics play out.
Finally, a question: since inflation meets expectations, do you think the Fed will stubbornly hold rates above 3.5% until the end of the year, or will it be forced to cut rates before the November election?
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 $BTC pulled up to 63800, up 0.67% in 24 hours. On social media, voices like "funds are back," "the bottom is done," and "institutions are scooping up" have resurfaced. But I don't believe it.
This rebound looks more like the shorts are exhausted and taking a breather, rather than new funds genuinely rushing back in.
The evidence is clear. On August 13, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $61.1 million, with BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC both experiencing outflows. The cumulative inflow of $865 million over the past week seems decent, but it has been completely absorbed by miner sell pressure and hedge fund arbitrage, failing to push the price out of its trend.
On-chain data also shows no consensus bullishness among whales. Paxos-related addresses sold a total of 2,500 BTC in two months, with another 800 BTC sold in the last eight hours; another large holder, silent for two years, transferred 1,770 BTC to exchanges, suspected to be for selling. You call this scooping up?
The technicals are even more direct—on the 4-hour chart, each rebound's high is lower than the previous one, a typical bearish structure. There is support at 63,200, but as soon as it nears 64,000, it gets pushed back. After the favorable CPI data came out, the price surged to 64,400 but quickly fell back, a typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario, with no sustained buying pressure at all.
The 63,800 bullish candle is just shorts temporarily resting and a shallow order book causing a slight rebound. The money hasn't come back; the shorts are just catching their breath.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Japan's interest rate hike hides risks of a crypto market crash! Historical data reveals the chain reaction logic of capital collapse
Japan is a core global source of cheap financing, with years of ultra-low interest rates fueling trillion-yen carry trades: institutions borrow low-interest yen to exchange for dollars and heavily invest in $BTC, $ETH, and other high-volatility coins. Once interest rates rise, financing costs increase, arbitrage opportunities vanish, forcing capital to sell crypto to repay debts, rapidly draining liquidity, and the crypto market bears the brunt with sharp declines.
Historical data confirms the bearish pattern: after three rate hikes in March 2024, July 2024, and January 2025, BTC retraced 23%, 26%, and 31% respectively, with an average drop exceeding 27%. ETH and altcoins fell even more. The market clearly divides into two phases: during the rate hike anticipation phase, capital deleverages early, and the market experiences a continuous volume contraction and slow decline; after the rate hike is implemented, if the yen strengthens significantly, carry trade positions are closed en masse, easily triggering a chain of liquidations and amplifying sharp price drops.
Segment differentiation is obvious: high-leverage themes and US stock storage-mapped tokens face the heaviest selling pressure; $BTC's digital gold attribute provides short-term safe-haven support, resulting in relatively moderate declines. However, if the rate hike exceeds market expectations, risk appetite across the entire market collapses, and all coins weaken simultaneously.
In practice, during the rate hike window, it is essential to reduce contract leverage and avoid small-cap altcoins; only gradually accumulate at $BTC deep support levels without blindly bottom-fishing. Yen liquidity tightening is a global bearish factor, making sustained bullish trends unlikely in the short term.
#日韩同日抛售美元护汇
⚠️This is only a macro review and does not constitute investment advice #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 CPI cools down, but the market hasn't received the “rate cut script” yet
US July inflation data settled steadily: CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, falling from 3.5% to 3.4% year-over-year; core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, dropping from 2.6% to 2.5% year-over-year, all in line with market expectations.
However, one point in the picture needs correction: the market is currently discussing not a “rate cut in September,” but whether the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates. After the CPI release, expectations for a September rate hike cooled significantly, with market pricing around 40%; maintaining the 3.50%—3.75% interest rate unchanged remains the more likely option.
After the data release, US Treasury yields and the dollar weakened, gold first fell then rose, and BTC continued to digest the news within a volatile range. The reason is simple: although inflation at 3.4% is declining, it is still far from the 2% target; medium- and long-term pressures from energy, tariffs, and fiscal deficits have not disappeared.
Therefore, this CPI can only indicate that the Federal Reserve is “not in a hurry to raise rates” in September, but it does not mean the easing cycle has restarted. The upcoming PPI, PCE, and employment data are the key. For the crypto market, this is a short-term positive, but before the policy path is fully clear, it is more like relieving pressure rather than the starting gun for a one-sided rally. @OKX星球 ⚠️ Bitcoin’s Major Bear-Market Warning Events
Bitcoin has experienced several major crashes triggered by hacks, regulations, leverage, and industry failures:
1️⃣ 2011 — Mt. Gox Hack
A major security breach caused BTC to collapse by nearly 99%.
2️⃣ 2013–2015 — China Regulations + Mt. Gox Bankruptcy
China tightened restrictions on Bitcoin trading while Mt. Gox collapsed, leading to an approximately 80% decline.
3️⃣ 2017 — ICO Crackdown
After the ICO boom, tighter regulations and advertising restrictions triggered a major correction of around 80% from the peak.
4️⃣ 2022 — Terra/LUNA Collapse + FTX Bankruptcy
The LUNA depeg followed by FTX’s collapse caused another severe crypto downturn, with BTC falling roughly 70% from its peak.
5️⃣ 2025 — Massive Liquidation Event
The October 10 selloff, fueled by tariff tensions and excessive leverage, triggered widespread liquidations. BTC has since fallen around 47% from its peak.
📉 History shows that Bitcoin’s biggest downturns often come after a combination of excessive leverage, regulatory pressure, and major industry failures.
bitcoin:native ethereum:native
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound
#HarmonyMintRollback
#CPIEasesHikeBets Don't be a Monday morning quarterback; tonight's PPI will most likely meet expectations.
Yesterday, July CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, month-on-month only 0.1%,
confirming mild inflation.
Tonight's PPI annual rate is expected at 4.9% (previous 5.5%). If it meets expectations, it will just continue the cooling narrative established by the CPI, not a new surprise.
After the CPI release, ETH surged to 1,924.97 then immediately dropped over 70 points to around 1,870, indicating a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario is playing out—
Even if PPI meets expectations, it is unlikely to trigger a second sustained rebound.
Most likely it will also surge then fall back for BTC ETH OKB SPCX SpaceX's earnings report beat expectations, the lock-up ended without selling, the stock price rebounded back to the issue price—I stared at the screen and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: when everyone is staring at the same gun, the person who fired it is often not the most dangerous. 🚀 $SPCX: The "target" in the shooter's game. SpaceX's Q2 revenue was $7.81 billion, a 92% year-on-year increase, far exceeding the expected $6.93 billion; loss per share was only $0.09, far better than the expected $0.26. But capital expenditure soared to 18.4 billion, with 15.8 billion of that burning for AI. After the earnings report, the stock fell 7%-8% in after-hours trading, then on August 6, 911.5 million shares were unlocked—everyone thought a flood was coming. And what happened? On the opening day, the stock price rose 6.14%, followed by a cumulative gain of 23% over the next two days. Citi maintained a $200 target price, and Deutsche Bank said that at current prices, the space business has basically covered the entire stock price, and the market's pricing in AI business is close to zero. But on August 20, the second round of lock-up—319 million shares—was already on the way. In the shooter game, SpaceX is the one with the most accurate marksmanship, watched by everyone. Just because the first round didn't explode doesn't mean the second round won't explode. Everyone watches its moves, and every move it makes is magnified and interpreted. 💰 $BTC: The little pig standing nearby waiting for the big pig to step on the pedal BTC is currently fluctuating between 63,000 and 65,000. CryptoQuant analysts predict a 55% probability of August fluctuating between 57,700 and 67,000, with a 30% likely#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
#芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22%
The CPI is out, and this time it really lacks momentum.
I was just thinking about waiting for $BTC to drop below $62,000 before considering exiting.
But then the market rebounded sharply, wearing down my patience.
This short position was taken down from a high point, and the process of floating profit retracement was quite uncomfortable. After trading for so long, I still fantasize about precisely catching the top and the exact bottom.
But the reality is, the market won’t hand you the fattest part intact.
So this time, I’m taking some profits off the table first.
The money earned is truly your own profit; keeping cash and principal in hand qualifies you to continue participating in the market.
Why is the market so volatile after the CPI?
After this CPI release, the market’s initial reaction wasn’t as straightforward as expected.
The data itself isn’t particularly bad; inflation pressure is still slowly easing, but some details aren’t enough for the market to fully embrace trading on rate cut expectations.
Thus, the market experienced very typical news-driven volatility.
After the data came out, BTC first dipped quickly, then surged back up.
For the bears, this kind of movement is the most frustrating.
The price can’t fall further, profit-taking starts, some shorts have to cover, and the market quickly shifts from decline to rebound, resulting in repeated sweeping up and down.
So often, trading isn’t just about picking the right direction.
Direction determines if you can make money; rhythm determines how much profit you ultimately keep.
BTC: Around 63,000 becomes a key short-term battleground
After BTC started falling from around $65,000, the 63,000 area clearly saw repeated battles between bulls and bears.
This level showing multiple supports means there’s still buying interest below.
But at the same time, selling pressure above remains.
Short-term focus should be on the 64,000–64,500 range.
If BTC can reclaim and hold above this range, market sentiment may strengthen again, making $65,000 or even $65,500 potential bull targets.
Conversely, if 63,000 is decisively broken down again, the market will need to reconsider downside space.
The $60,000–$62,000 zone could become a renewed support area.
Currently, it looks more like a range-bound battle rather than a clear one-sided trend.
News, capital flows, and sentiment changes can all cause sudden acceleration.
So at this stage, managing position size is more important than blindly guessing direction.
MU: AI and storage cycles remain core logic
$MU’s movement today is also worth watching.
Market focus on Micron still centers on AI demand and storage industry cycle recovery.
Especially with HBM, high-performance storage, and ongoing data center expansion, the entire storage supply chain has strong fundamental growth potential.
But problems exist as well.
When a stock prices in a lot of optimistic expectations early, its sensitivity to positive news actually decreases.
Around $140 can be a short-term observation point.
If it breaks out with volume and holds, there’s room to open up further upside.
But if it spikes then quickly falls back, be wary of short-term profit-taking on good news.
Good fundamentals don’t guarantee the stock price will only rise in the short term.
SNDK: The story remains, but chasing highs requires caution
$SNDK’s logic is quite similar.
AI-driven storage demand hasn’t disappeared; the industry story still holds.
But capital markets never just look at the story.
What really determines if the rally continues is whether new money is willing to step in.
After continuous gains, short-term profit-taking naturally increases.
So the closer to the top, the more you shouldn’t chase just because the rise looks strong.
A truly healthy strong rally isn’t about daily crazy surges but about consistent support after pullbacks.
If every correction sees buyers stepping in, then the trend is more reliable.
No regrets about missing the last leg
Saying I have no regrets would be a lie.
Seeing floating profits retrace significantly from the high makes me a bit uncomfortable.
But that’s trading.
The head of the fish isn’t tasty, and the tail isn’t either.
Trying to sell exactly at the top is often just a fantasy.
At least this time, I didn’t let a profitable trade turn into a loss, so I gave myself a passing grade.
Take some profits off the table first.
The market won’t deny you the next chance just because you didn’t catch the whole move this time.
What really matters:
Don’t give back profits you’ve already secured just to chase the last bit.
Take profits when you should.
Reduce positions when you should.
Exit when you should, and don’t fight the market.
The market runs every day; opportunities are never just one-time.
If you don’t catch the tail this time, find a more comfortable spot next time.
Trading isn’t about who makes the most every time but who can survive in the market continuously.
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 Path lock-in is also an innovation burden. Bitcoin's irreplicability is not just about the political neutrality brought by the disappearance of founders mentioned in the previous article; it also has another side: protocol upgrades are locked down by conservative community culture. This lock-in has left Bitcoin far behind other projects on many technical issues, most directly reflected in its procrastination in resisting quantum. Anti-quantum encryption algorithms have already been included in the standard configuration list for the next decade by many banks and central bank-level institutions in the traditional financial industry. In other words, for a network managing trillions in assets, whether it can withstand attacks from quantum computers is no longer an academic issue, but an engineering timeline issue. But when it comes to the Bitcoin community, it's a completely different story. Discussions about whether to introduce quantum-resistant signatures, when to introduce them, and which solution to use have existed since the early days. Although recent proposals (such as BIP-360 and BIP-361) and sidechain testing have emerged, there has yet to be a mainnet activation consensus and requires a long period of community tug-of-war. This almost paranoid conservatism in the Bitcoin community is not caused by immature technology, but rather by being welded to the non-replicable identity. Once a project is deemed non-replicable by the market, any proposal that might change the core rules is scrutinized under a magnifying glass. The proposer's answer is not "Does this change make sense?" but "Will this change undermine Bitcoin's native design?" The latter question carries much greater weight than the formerBuying "a few milliseconds" for $100,000: When presidential posts become paid insider information, what are we still playing at?
Over the past year, how many times have you only realized the market was about to move after scrolling through a Trump post?
Tariffs, the Iran war, monetary policy—one of his posts can cause the S&P 500 to surge 9% in a single day.
By the time you see it, the price has already soared or crashed.
You think, "The news was too fast; I couldn't keep up."
The truth is—you’re not even on the same starting line.
On August 12, two U.S. media organizations—The Intercept and the Freedom of the Press Foundation—filed a lawsuit against Trump in the New York Federal Court.
What’s the lawsuit about?
It’s about his paid data service called "Truth API."
This service charges $60,000 to $100,000 per month, prioritizing the delivery of posts from Trump and other White House officials to paying Wall Street firms at "millisecond-level" speed.
$100,000 to buy a few milliseconds.
A few milliseconds in quantitative trading means tens of millions of dollars in profit difference.
More than 10 high-frequency trading firms have already signed up, with expected annual revenue of $7 million to $12 million—2 to 3 times the company’s total revenue last year.
There’s a passage in the complaint I read three times—
"The president gains economic benefits by providing government information that 'impacts the market' to those willing and able to pay his personal company."
To translate:
Trump posts something that might affect the market—Wall Street pays to see it a few milliseconds earlier and completes their trades—then you see it—the price has already changed—you chase the highs or cut losses—Trump’s company profits.
And you are the only one in this chain who pays but is always a step behind.
The advocacy director of the Freedom of the Press Foundation said:
"The president sells priority access to the information he releases to profit his private company under his control—this behavior is so blatantly corrupt and unconstitutional that it was unimaginable just a few years ago."
Unimaginable a few years ago. Today, it’s live and operating.
You might ask: Isn’t this just an "information gap"? Wall Street has Bloomberg terminals and professional data services—what’s different?
The difference is—the "source" of this information is the creator of the information and the largest shareholder of this information service.
Trump holds over 40% of Trump Media & Technology Group.
He posts—his company profits. He sells the posts early to Wall Street—his company profits again.
One piece of information, profiting twice.
And when you see it, the soup is already cold.
What’s more ironic?
Trump Media & Technology Group lost $238 million in Q2 this year.
Bitcoin holdings are underwater by hundreds of millions. Daily active users are only 260,000, down 40% year-over-year.
Traffic is poor, advertising is poor, cryptocurrency is poor.
Then they found a new business model—selling the president’s "time difference."
During his second term, Trump posted and reposted about 10,000 posts on Truth Social, many without accompanying official White House statements.
In other words—if you want to know what the president is saying first, the only channel is his own paid platform.
Democratic Senators Warren and Schiff have already written to the SEC demanding an investigation.
But investigations take time.
And the market trades every millisecond.
Back to us.
In this market, what are we facing?
Algorithms that are a few milliseconds faster than you. Institutions paying $100,000 a month for "priority." A president who profits from posting.
Are you still looking at candlesticks, counting waves, analyzing MACD golden and death crosses?
They’re playing the game of information production, distribution, and pricing.
You analyze the "past." They trade the "future"—the future a few milliseconds ahead.
I’m not telling you to despair.
I’m telling you to wake up.
In this market, "fairness" is never the default setting.
If you don’t have a $100,000 monthly fee, millisecond-level fiber optics, or AI algorithms to automatically interpret posts—
don’t consider yourself an "information trader."
You can only be a "price follower."
And the only survival rule for price followers is not chasing news—it’s waiting for the news to be fully digested before watching the direction.
Trump posts, institutions complete trades within milliseconds, the market digests it within minutes.
When you rush in then, whose position are you taking?
Think about it yourself.
When information itself becomes a commodity, and the creator of the information is also the seller—this market is no longer trading assets.
It’s trading "who sees it first."
And you are never the one who sees it first.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP #特朗普因TruthSocial付费数据流遭起诉 The same CPI, two worlds: one side celebrating, the other side getting hit. 😅
Brothers, last night's CPI data really took the word "divergence" to the extreme.
The data itself is flawless: 3.4%, 2.5%, 0.1%, all three numbers precisely hit expectations, no more, no less.
According to the classic script, cooling inflation → easing rate hike expectations → risk assets should rise, everyone should be happy. So what happened?
In the crypto world, it's a typical "good news fully priced in" scenario:
· Bitcoin $BTC: surged to 64,400 before the data, then dropped straight down to 63,800 once the data was released. The entire $600 rally was given back, as if it never went up.
· Ethereum $ETH was even more straightforward: touched 1,924, then immediately dropped to 1,872 with no resistance.
Two weeks of expectations were already bought in advance. Once the data landed, it was the signal to exit — that's the crypto market's reaction.
---
On the US stock side, it's a completely different picture:
· SK Hynix rose 9%
· SanDisk rose 5%
· Seagate rose 7%
· The storage sector collectively ignited, like it was on steroids
· SpaceX closed at $146, up 9.7% for the day, climbing nearly 40% from the low of 108
· Gold spot touched 4448, closed at 4408, firmly holding above the 4400 level again
The same CPI, crypto reads it as "good news fully priced in," US stocks read it as "soft landing confirmed" — the same test paper, two different scores.
---
The subsequent trend is even more split:
Bitcoin is hovering around 63,500; if 63,000 doesn't hold, there’s no decent support below.
US stocks' AI sector is still surging, but Morgan Stanley has already started warning "valuations are expensive."
Warning signals on both sides point in opposite directions — do you believe in the US stock market's "soft landing" or the crypto market's "good news fully priced in"?
---
By the way, a word on the "digital gold" credibility:
· Gold $XAU has risen 9% this year
· Bitcoin has dropped 11%
Market behavior has long said it all: digital gold and physical gold have long parted ways.
#JulyCPIStableRelease #CryptoVsUSStocks #GoodNewsFullyPricedInOrSoftLanding #DigitalGoldNotWhatItSeems Glassnode: Bitcoin Enters Late-Stage Bear Market Compression Phase, but Genuine Demand Signals Have Yet to Appear
According to the latest report from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, a realistic cycle assessment is provided: selling pressure is gradually waning, but substantial buying has not truly entered the market.
How to Understand the Current Situation
The so-called bear market compression phase means: selling pressure can no longer move the market, profitable holders are fleeing less, market volatility continues to narrow, and trading volume remains sluggish, indicating a bottoming process.
However, the key point is: just because selling pressure is weakening does not mean buying has arrived.
ETF funds have not seen sustained net inflows, exchanges still have chip inflows, spot market support is weak, and rebounds are mainly driven by derivatives leverage play; genuine spot demand is absent.
Two Critical Levels
On the upside, 68,700 requires volume expansion plus ETF fund inflows to hold above to break the compression pattern;
On the downside, 58,500 has thin buying; if broken, it could lead to accelerated declines.
Many people see weakening selling pressure and immediately try to bottom-fish, betting on a major bottom, which is a common pitfall.
Selling pressure exhaustion is a prerequisite for bottoming, not a reversal signal. Bottoming can last a long time, with a slow grind down being the norm.
Personal View
We are currently in a bottom brewing phase; do not blindly assume the bottom has been reached.
You can build spot positions in batches but should avoid heavy bets on a one-sided reversal; avoid prematurely betting on big moves in futures contracts, wait for volume and capital flow improvements before following.
A true reversal requires both selling pressure to subside and genuine buying to resonate; both are indispensable.Goldman Sachs’ $2.25B NEOS acquisition is about more than buying an ETF manager—it’s a direct move into Bitcoin yield products.
NEOS manages around $30B, including BTCI, which generates income by selling call options. But don’t be fooled by its ~27% distribution rate: high yield doesn’t guarantee high returns, and upside can be limited during strong BTC rallies.
The bigger picture is Goldman’s growing ETF strategy. By combining Innovator and NEOS, Goldman is targeting both downside protection and income generation.
Spot ETFs made Bitcoin easier to trade; yield ETFs aim to make Bitcoin generate cash flow. If this trend expands, Wall Street could reshape how institutions participate in the crypto market.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound
#AIInfraEarningsWatch
#SpaceX99%ValueFromAI "Prediction for BTC in the Next 60 Days"
Thursday, August 13, 2026
Q3 · Issue 99
Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective
BTC current price is about $63,900. It dropped 3.5% in May 2026, 20.4% in June, rebounded 7.3% in July, and has slightly risen so far in August. The July rebound indicates that the sharp drop in June was corrected, but it does not yet prove that the mid-term yearly adjustment has ended. Both 2018 and 2022 saw rebounds after summer lows, followed by several weeks of low volatility, with the main yearly lows occurring later.
1. On Historical Months and Price Pressure Zones
The monthly rhythm in 2018 and 2022 is similar to this year: declines in May and June, rebound in July, then weakening again in August and September. In 2014, there was no July rebound; instead, prices fell continuously from June through September. According to Coin Metrics daily price recalculations, BTC fell 9.1% and 6.0% in August and September 2018 respectively; 14.3% and 2.9% in 2022; and 17.8% and 18.7% in 2014. These three samples are insufficient to prove seasonality, but all indicate that the July rebound in mid-term years should not be directly interpreted as the end of the bear market.
Using $63,900 as a baseline for stress testing, a 10% retracement corresponds to about $57,500; an additional 8% retracement from there corresponds to about $52,900.
Therefore, the $56,000 to $58,000 range can be considered the first risk observation zone, and $50,000 to $53,000 is a deeper pressure zone. These two ranges are for measuring retracement magnitude, not price targets, and do not imply the market will necessarily reach them.
The summer rebound strength is also weak. BTC rebounded nearly 50% from the summer low in 2018, while this cycle's rebound from the summer low was only about 16% at one point. The related social attention indicator is currently about 0.2, significantly lower than the 0.4 to 0.5 level in the same period of 2022, and closer to 2018. Lower attention usually corresponds to lower trading activity; short-term volatility may narrow, but the rebound lacks sustained new capital support.
2. On Cycle Days and Bear Market Length
The main lows of the previous two cycles appeared roughly on day 1436 and day 1432 of their respective cycles. Currently, we are around day 1360; sixty days later will be near day 1420, within one to two weeks of historical lows. The days between cycle tops and lows in recent cycles are also close, with an error margin of about ten days. Time alone cannot determine price but indicates that late September to October is not an arbitrary date range.
Bear market durations yield similar results. The past two full bear markets lasted about 52 and 54 weeks, corresponding to the weeks of October 5 and October 19 this cycle; an earlier cycle lasted 59 weeks, corresponding to the week of November 23 this year. The main lows of the first three cycles fell in January, December, and November respectively. If this monthly migration still holds reference value, October would be the next candidate month. However, the sample size for monthly migration is smaller and should only be considered auxiliary evidence.
The 2018 experience also reminds us that sideways consolidation may last longer than expected. BTC rebounded in July 2018 but showed no clear direction from August to October, then dropped sharply again in November. The 2022 summer balance lasted until mid-August. Therefore, no immediate breakdown in August only indicates temporary supply-demand balance and cannot confirm the main low has appeared.
3. Three Scenario Predictions for the Next 60 Days
1. Main low forms near October, subjective probability about 50%. August and September remain weak, BTC breaks below $60,000 and summer lows; $56,000 to $58,000 is first tested by the market; if on-chain indicators continue downward, $50,000 to $53,000 enters the observation range. Price breakdown and on-chain reset must occur simultaneously; a short-term drop alone is insufficient to confirm this scenario.
2. Sideways consolidation continues until November, subjective probability about 30%. Support near $60,000 holds, price remains low volatility, and on-chain indicators like MVRV Z-Score have not completed the typical bear market bottom reset. In this case, no new low in October does not directly imply risk removal; the 59-week bear market historical sample gains more weight.
3. Summer low has been established, subjective probability about 20%. BTC reclaims the July rebound high and bear market resistance zone, forms a higher low after a pullback; even if MVRV Z-Score does not fall below zero, price remains strong. If these conditions hold, it indicates this market structure differs significantly from the previous three cycles, and the baseline judgment of a new low in late September to October should be canceled.
4. Verification Conditions and Judgment Boundaries
Price-wise, focus on $60,000 and summer lows below, and July rebound highs and bear market resistance above. On-chain, historical bear market lows often see MVRV Z-Score drop below zero; composite risk indicators composed of Puell Multiple, MVRV, transaction fees, terminal price, and Thermocap also tend to approach 0.1. These signals have not all appeared yet, so the bottom cannot be confirmed.
Therefore, the next 60 days should distinguish two market states: whether the current sideways is completing a bottom build or a temporary balance before the last mid-term yearly adjustment. Predicting a specific day in October or a low price between $50,000 and $53,000 lacks sufficient basis.
My baseline judgment still leans toward a more meaningful low appearing between late September and October, but only breaking the summer low accompanied by on-chain reset can increase confidence in this scenario; of course, if BTC holds above the July rebound high and bear market resistance zone, I will promptly cancel the original judgment.
I will continue to record the above price and on-chain indicator changes in the Aspirin · Cycle Lab group chat. No profit promises are made here, nor are any trading decisions made on behalf of anyone; each judgment will retain dates and invalidation conditions for future review.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #CPI data, the current core turning point for BTC
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice
Market status
$BTC has been oscillating back and forth within the large range of $62,000‑66,000 for five consecutive weeks, with bulls and bears tugging repeatedly, and the market stuck in a grinding state. The market generally expects tonight's CPI to break the current box and choose a direction.
Currently, it is easy for the market to experience false spikes to lure bulls or bears, most likely first probing the bottom, followed by a V-shaped recovery.
Around $65,000 is not suitable for chasing the rally directly; chasing highs is very likely to encounter a short-term rapid pullback. It is better to wait for a pullback to stabilize before considering positioning.
Why CPI determines the short-term market direction
Last week's non-farm payroll data was below expectations, and the market once thought there would be no rate hike in September. However, multiple Federal Reserve officials released hawkish statements, with Waller openly stating that if inflation remains high, a rate hike will start in September.
Therefore, this CPI data directly determines the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy stance.
The mainstream market expectation is that CPI year-on-year will slightly fall from 3.5% to 3.4%; however, core service sector inflation is very resilient, posing a risk of inflation exceeding expectations.
Two scenario simulations
1️⃣ CPI data falls, inflation cools down
The expectation of a September rate hike cools down directly. Coupled with large net inflows into spot BTC ETFs this week, with BlackRock accounting for the vast majority of inflows, institutions continue to enter and accumulate.
Under this favorable environment, $BTC is expected to break upward and challenge the range above $66,000.
2️⃣ CPI exceeds expectations, inflation rebounds again
The probability of a September rate hike climbs back above 50%, and risk assets will face concentrated selling pressure.
$BTC will pull back to the $62,000‑63,000 range, and one can wait for chip opportunities after the pullback.
Practical approach
Do not blindly chase longs near $64,000, as it is easy to be shaken out and harvested in the short term.
Market volatility will be extremely intense after the data release; do not rush in to gamble immediately. First observe the authenticity of the initial wave of the market.
Quality trading opportunities come from waiting, not betting on direction. Before the market settles, impatient operations are more likely to cause losses. Be patient and wait for clear signals from the market before taking action.
⚠️ Risk warning: CPI release will bring huge volatility. The above is only a market logic simulation and does not constitute investment advice. Be sure to manage your position size properly. $BTC $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% #芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22% Latest signal from the BTC liquidity cycle chart!
The current liquidity index is rapidly dropping to historically low levels, highly similar to the late stages of bear markets in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Meanwhile, the realized market cap remains high (around 1.2T), indicating that capital has not massively withdrawn but has entered a "low liquidity + high lock-up" state.
Historically, this combination often appears near cycle bottoms. Short-term pain intensifies, but mid-to-long-term supply contraction builds momentum for the next rally. Watch whether the liquidity index stops falling and starts to rise.CPI landing meets expectations, why does $BTC fall instead of rise
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice
Key events
July US CPI data fully matched market expectations:
- CPI month-on-month +0.1%, year-on-year +3.4%
- Core CPI month-on-month +0.2%, year-on-year +2.5%
Housing costs are the main driver of inflation, contributing two-thirds of this CPI increase, while energy prices fell 1.5% month-on-month. After the data release, $BTC did not rally but instead dropped back to around $64,000, showing a typical Buy the rumor, sell the fact scenario.
Underlying logic of the decline
The market trades on expectation gaps, not just data quality.
Before the CPI release, weaker nonfarm payroll data had already lowered market odds of further Fed rate hikes, and optimistic expectations for rate cuts were already priced in, allowing $BTC to rebound to around $65,000.
This CPI simply perfectly fulfilled prior market guesses without delivering a surprise below expectations or incremental positive news.
Funds that had previously speculated on positive outcomes took profits and exited upon data release, directly causing selling pressure and a pullback.
Simply put: meeting expectations = no surprise, insufficient to drive a new upward rally.
Key observation range going forward
With CPI data settled, the market focus shifts to the strength of the support zone: key area is $63,000–$63,800.
1. If the price can hold this range: it indicates a consolidation after positive news realization, the existing mid-term structure remains intact, just needing time to absorb selling pressure above.
2. If it breaks this support effectively: it means selling pressure accumulated above $65,000 remains heavy, bulls are weak, and the market will open further downside.
Market takeaway
Data meeting expectations only means no new negative news, not that the market will rise.
The old story of cooling inflation has been fully priced in; to push $BTC to break upward again requires new catalysts: either clearer easing signals from the Fed or real incremental capital inflows via ETFs or on-chain.
Relying solely on already priced-in old expectations makes sustained price increases difficult. $BTC $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% This round of CPI has already been released, and all data fully meets market expectations. It represents a smooth landing of the boot, neutral to slightly warm, but without any unexpectedly positive surprises.
There is no strong stimulus with incremental funds, so a unilateral big surge will not start immediately. In the next few days, the rhythms of the US stock market and the crypto market will be discussed separately.
1. US Stock Market Trend Projection for the Next Few Days
1) Overall tone: oscillating with a bias toward recovery, but with limited height
Inflation has not rebounded, the market has dispelled fears of the Fed restarting rate hikes, and the expectation of rate cuts in September remains. The Nasdaq and tech growth stocks have a basis for valuation recovery.
2) Constraints:
Data only meets expectations, no cooling beyond expectations, so funds will not blindly chase highs; focus next on tech earnings reports and oil price fluctuations.
3) Two paths:
Optimistic: Nasdaq holds support, oscillates upward, AI computing power growth targets remain strong;
Cautious: after a rally, profit-taking occurs, with back-and-forth range trading.
In short: the bearish alert is lifted, but there is a lack of strong catalysts for sustained upward momentum, so oscillation dominates.
2. Crypto Market ($BTC + Altcoins) Trend for the Next Few Days
Currently, $BTC remains in a 63900–65500 box range, and the CPI release has not broken the original range.
Market characteristics:
1) Marginal relief of macro pressure, but no direct continuous unilateral rally
US stocks stabilizing can support BTC’s bottom, but it’s hard to drive a breakthrough surge; to break the box, BTC must volume-wise hold above 65500.
2) Continued divergence (key point)
✅ Clustered main lines: $OKB, $ADA, $CFX, $GRVT, $HYPE are targets continuously watched by funds, with repeated swing opportunities in oscillation;
❌ Weak coins: $WLD, $FIL, $STORJ, $WLFI, $MOVE still underperform the market, rebounds are weak, avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
3) Risk points
Existing funds are competing, it’s easy for US stocks to stabilize while altcoins don’t follow the rally; once US stocks rally then fall back, high-volatility altcoins will have larger corrections.
Two scenario projections:
1) Strong scenario
BTC holds the 63900 watershed, breaks through 65500 with volume, opening upward space. Mainline coins continue strengthening, mid- and small-cap elastic targets get opportunities, but a broad altcoin rally is unlikely.
2) Weak scenario
Multiple failed attempts to break resistance above, bullish momentum exhausted, retesting around 64000 to confirm support; weak coins will weaken first, strong targets will also have short-term pullbacks.
3. Practical Strategy
1) Macro level: the biggest uncertainty (inflation rebound) is temporarily lifted, but full easing is still distant; it remains a structurally oscillating market, not a trending bull market;
2) Position strategy: avoid heavy bets on unilateral moves. Buy near support on dips, take profits in batches near resistance;
3) Target selection: prioritize clustered main lines, avoid long-term weak altcoins;
4) Key monitoring watershed: BTC 63900 (bull-bear dividing line), 65500 (breakthrough confirmation).
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22% **Minmetals Resources' H1 Performance Explodes: Profits More Than Double, BofA Raises Target Price Overnight**
According to the latest research report from Bank of America Securities, Minmetals Resources (01208.HK) delivered a far better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2026. During the period, revenue reached $4.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61%; net profit attributable to shareholders recorded $897 million, soaring 164% year-on-year. This performance not only easily surpassed BofA's previous forecast but also already accounts for 54% of the market's full-year 2026 profit expectations.
The core logic behind this explosive performance is clear: increased sales volume, rising copper and by-product prices, and a significant decline in C1 cash costs—threefold benefits combined. EBITDA surged 77% year-on-year to $2.73 billion, with the flagship Las Bambas project contributing about $2.25 billion, almost carrying half the weight. Copper output grew 3% year-on-year to 266,500 tons, completing 52% of the full-year guidance. Even more impressive is cost control—Las Bambas' H1 C1 cash cost was only $0.55/lb, prompting management to lower the full-year C1 cost guidance to $0.85–1.05/lb.
The balance sheet repair is equally impressive. Net debt plummeted from $3.35 billion at the end of 2025 to $608 million, with the net debt ratio improving significantly from 33% to just 6%. Cash reserves increased by $2.8 billion, mainly from strong operating cash flow of $2.23 billion and approximately $1.6 billion raised in June through convertible bonds and share placements. The only minor disappointment is that the company did not distribute an interim dividend this period.
Based on the strong H1 performance and significant financial structure optimization, BofA Securities raised Minmetals Resources' 2026–2028 earnings forecasts by 16%–22%, increased the target price from HK$10.5 to HK$12, and maintained a "Buy" rating.
From an industry perspective, BofA is quite optimistic about copper price prospects. The top 15 global copper miners' output fell 5% year-on-year in H1, combined with tightening scrap copper supply in mainland China, leading to refined copper production in July being 4% below the forecast at the start of the year. Meanwhile, power grid investment grew 13% year-on-year, supporting demand. With limited supply elasticity, the copper market's supply-demand fundamentals continue to improve.
**My Personal View**
This performance and BofA's upgrade essentially validate a judgment: in a cycle where the copper price base is rising, mining companies that can truly reduce costs and maintain stable output will capture the greatest profit elasticity.
Minmetals Resources' impressive showing is not just "luckily hitting high copper prices" but stems from a clear improvement in Las Bambas' operational efficiency—C1 costs compressed to $0.55/lb already place it among the world's top-tier mines. The hard cost strength combined with output progressing as guided results in profit growth outpacing revenue growth, representing quality growth.
The balance sheet's rapid deleveraging to near "net cash" status also gives the company greater strategic flexibility. Whether for potential future dividends, reinvestment, or hedging price volatility, the company is much more comfortable than before. BofA raising the target price to HK$12 and maintaining a Buy rating essentially prices in this "operational improvement + favorable cycle" combination.
Of course, risks remain. Las Bambas is located in Peru, where geopolitical and community issues remain a Damocles sword hanging overhead; copper prices themselves are highly volatile, and a shift in macro sentiment could cause short-term stock price pullbacks. But from a longer-term perspective, global energy transition, grid upgrades, and data center construction create structural demand for copper, while new high-quality copper supply is extremely slow to come online. In this supply-demand landscape, companies like Minmetals Resources that have already pushed down the cost curve and reduced debt possess strong anti-cyclical capabilities and upside elasticity.
Overall, this is a report of "performance delivery + financial repair + industry tailwind" triple resonance. In the short term, the market will continue to digest this better-than-expected result; in the medium to long term, if the copper price base can be maintained above the current level, Minmetals Resources' valuation still has room to expand. Of course, investment still needs to pay attention to Peru's operational stability and copper price volatility risks.Will ETH rise or fall when the PPI data is released tonight?
The PPI data itself will not directly determine ETH's rise or fall, but it will indirectly have a significant impact on ETH and other risk assets by influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations.
🔍 Overview of tonight's PPI data
The US July PPI data will be released at 20:30 tonight. The market generally expects the year-on-year growth rate to drop from 5.5% to 4.9%, and the month-on-month rate to rebound from -0.3% to +0.2%. The core PPI year-on-year expectation is down from 4.7% to 4.2%.
Since the July CPI has already confirmed a cooling trend, the market is more focused on whether the PPI monthly rate will rebound beyond expectations—if the monthly rate exceeds 0.2%, it may indicate that upstream cost pressures have not truly eased.
✍🏻 Impact of different data scenarios on ETH
· Scenario 1: PPI below expectations (annual rate <4.9% and monthly rate <0.2%) → Positive for ETH. Continued inflation cooling will strengthen the "no rate hike in September" expectation, and ETH may see a short-term rebound of 7%-12%.
· Scenario 2: PPI meets expectations (annual rate ≈4.9%, monthly rate ≈0.2%) → Neutral to slightly positive. Resonates with CPI as a "double mild inflation" scenario, possibly further lowering the probability of a rate hike in September, but the positive effect is weaker than in Scenario 1.
· Scenario 3: PPI rebounds beyond expectations (monthly rate >0.2%) → Negative for ETH. Cost pressures on the corporate side have not eased, reigniting rate hike concerns, putting downward pressure on ETH.
🔍 Current market status of ETH
ETH is currently fluctuating narrowly between $1,870 and $1,880, with a weak technical outlook. Last night's CPI positive news only brought a brief pulse-like rebound before falling back, indicating the market is cautious ahead of the PPI release. A significant fluctuation is highly likely after the PPI data is published.
⚠️ Risk warnings
· Concurrent data interference: Initial jobless claims data will be released simultaneously with the PPI; strong employment data may offset the positive impact of the PPI.
· Fed hawkish speeches: Federal Reserve officials will speak tonight; if they reiterate "inflation risks still require rate hikes," it may partially offset the positive data.
· Geopolitical risks: Sudden news shocks such as Middle East tensions can amplify ETH's volatility.
⭕ Summary: PPI data is an important variable for ETH's short-term trend but not the sole determining factor. It is likely to remain volatile before the data release; it is recommended to wait for the data to settle and the trend to become clear before making decisions.
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Just checked the $ETH liquidation map, and what I’m watching most right now isn’t how high ETH can rally, but whether the lower support zone can survive.
ETH is around $1,876, only about $30 above $1,849. There’s already a large concentration of leveraged long liquidations around that level, including roughly $8.39M at 50x, while total long liquidation intensity is around $152M.
So my view is straightforward: ETH moving sideways around $1,870 isn’t the main concern. The real risk starts if $1,849 breaks decisively.
If that happens, selling could become self-reinforcing:
Price drops → leveraged longs get liquidated → forced selling increases → price falls further.
That kind of liquidation cascade can make the move much sharper than normal technical selling.
This is why I’m paying less attention to simple support and resistance levels. Sometimes the real driver of volatility isn’t a round-number support, but the amount of leveraged positions sitting underneath it.
Compared with ETH, $BTC currently has a less concentrated liquidation structure. If another sharp sell-off hits the market, ETH could potentially act as the bigger volatility amplifier.
If $1,849 holds, it may simply be normal consolidation. But if it breaks, be careful—the market could shift from trading direction to trading leverage and liquidations.
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound
#GoldmanBuysNeos Is Musk just painting a pie in the sky again? Don't rush to conclusions; the pies he paints often end up becoming real. 🚀
Brothers, I just saw Musk's speech at the SpaceX all-hands meeting, and it really energized me.
"In five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX's value."
With this statement, SpaceX in his eyes is no longer just a "rocket company." According to him, AI revenue is expected to surpass the total of all other company businesses by this September — meaning rocket launches, Starlink services, and so on will soon be overshadowed by AI in terms of revenue.
Even more astonishing is the computing power plan: aiming for 10 gigawatts (GW) of computing power by the end of next year. According to his calculations, that translates to an annual revenue scale of $300 billion to $500 billion.
What does 10 GW mean? Hundreds of thousands of GPUs running simultaneously, consuming enough electricity to power a medium-sized city — this is not just painting a pie in the sky; this is real money being poured into infrastructure.
Even more impressive is his roadmap:
"Train on the ground, infer in space."
In plain terms: train AI models on Earth, then deploy them on Starship and Starlink nodes in space for inference computing. This means combining Starship's computing power + Starlink's network + AI's computing power into one integrated infrastructure.
Rockets are no longer just transport tools for satellites; they are paving the way for AI — with Starlink covering the globe and space-based computing nodes, the entire network architecture is elevated beyond terrestrial data centers.
The approach is indeed bold, but the direction is right.
So what does this have to do with our crypto world? Three points:
First, AI computing power demand is still exploding, not linear but exponential.
If Musk's 10 GW plan really materializes, just the hardware procurement will be astronomical. Miners waiting for "computing power costs to drop" shouldn't hold their breath in the short term — demand is still surging, and costs will only get higher.
Second, capital will continue to flock to the AI track.
AI projects and DePIN (decentralized computing power network) projects in crypto will get more attention and funding. But the premise is: you must have real substance, not just good PPT presentations. The market is already fatigued by pure narratives; real data and use cases are required.
Third, the intersection of AI and crypto is deepening.
Musk is working on "space inference," crypto projects are working on "decentralized computing power," and these two paths will likely converge at some point. Whoever succeeds first will become the infrastructure of the next era — the ceiling of this track might be higher than we imagine.
My view:
Musk's words may sound like bragging, but history tells us — his boasts have a higher fulfillment rate than most people think. Starlink, Starship, Tesla's AI training clusters — these are all solidly implemented, not just talk.
With SpaceX's cash flow and Starlink revenue backing 10 GW, it's at least much more reliable than those air projects in crypto. But for traders, this level of narrative corresponds to a very long investment cycle. You know it might be right, but the process will involve countless fluctuations — not something ordinary people can hold onto.
From a big-picture perspective, the AI track is still in its early stages; the real big market wave hasn't arrived yet.
Stay tuned, but don't rush to go all in. The direction is right, but pacing is more important.
#MuskSaysAIWillAccountFor99PercentOfSpaceXValue #AIComputingPowerExplosion #SpaceInference #DePINGold — $4,378, plunged sharply after surging to 4,500
Gold is quoted at $4,378/oz, plunging more than $70 directly from this morning's high of 4,449. COMEX futures closed overnight at 4,469. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi hinted support for a rate hike, causing the yen to surge and the dollar to return to 100, hitting gold hard due to the stronger dollar. Domestic gold jewelry prices have broken 1,340 yuan/gram. Analysts warn of overheating sentiment and accumulating risks of chasing highs.
50% are oscillating between 4,350-4,420 to digest; 35% have pulled back to 4,300; 15% have stabilized above 4,420 and are pushing towards 4,450+. $XAUT $ETH AA core developers head to Ethlabs, Ethereum's implementation pace to accelerate
The smart account team ZeroDev, previously acquired by Offchain Labs, has its founder Derek Chiang officially joining the Ethereum protocol development organization Ethlabs.
ZeroDev itself is a veteran infrastructure team in the account abstraction (AA) track, acquired last year by Offchain Labs behind Arbitrum, focusing deeply on wallet and account underlying solutions.
The significance of this reassignment is very clear.
Ethlabs focuses on underlying protocol development, previously more inclined towards theoretical upgrades; Derek excels in product implementation, and after joining, he will connect Ethereum's underlying technology to developers and commercial projects. Simply put, this means turning technical concepts into on-chain products that ordinary people can actually use.
In the long term, accelerating the implementation of upgrades like account abstraction, light clients, and fast finality will lower the entry barriers to Web3, benefiting the overall Ethereum ecosystem development.
But the timeline must be clear: this news is a long-term constructive benefit and will not immediately drive the market. In the short term, the market will still be dominated by volume-based competition, so do not heavily chase the price surge based solely on a personnel announcement.
When do you think account abstraction will achieve large-scale adoption? Key market events today:
🔎 What to watch:
🇬🇧 GDP (Jun) - 09:00
- previous: 0.1%m/m, 0.9%y/y
- forecast: 0.0%m/m
🇺🇸 PPI - 15:30
- previous: -0.3%m/m, 5.5%y/y
- forecast: 0.2%m/m, 4.9%y/y
🇺🇸 Core PPI - 15:30
- previous: 0.2%m/m, 4.7%y/y
- forecast: 0.3%m/m, 4.2%y/y
🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 15:30
- previous: 199K
- forecast: 202K
Speakers:
🇺🇸 Barkin (FOMC) - 15:40
Indicators:
🇯🇵 PPI - 02:50
🇬🇧 Trade Balance (Jun) - 09:00
🇨🇭 PPI - 09:30
🛢 Natural Gas Storage - 17:30
🇺🇸 FED’s Balance Sheet - 23:30
Auctions:
🇺🇸 30y T-Bond - 20:00
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI $SPCX short trade has turned into a painful lesson.
I opened the short around 116.94 with 75x leverage, expecting a drop. Instead, SPCX kept climbing—from 116 to 139, then 147, barely giving any meaningful pullback. It eventually hit 149.47, currently around 146.92, leaving me with a floating loss of over 300U. I’m still holding the position.
At the same time, I ran a 10x long grid strategy on SPCX between 100–250, with an average price of 134.31. I placed 80 orders with only 18U invested. The grid has made about 7.8U, while the short has lost more than 300U.
Having longs and shorts on the same coin feels less like hedging and more like fighting myself. 😅
Meanwhile, $OKB jumped around 8% from 94 to 105, breaking out with strong volume. Mainstream coins are also moving steadily, but I’m staying out for now.
$TRUST also surged about 14% from 0.05 to 0.063, but with only around 3.92M U in volume, chasing the move at this point feels like taking on unnecessary risk.
I’m still holding the losing position and haven’t chased any of the coins that pumped.
$SPCX already moved 30 points from 116 to 146. The bullish direction became obvious earlier, but I simply didn’t follow it.
The trade is still open. I’m waiting for a suitable pullback to reduce the loss and exit.
At this point, predicting the direction isn’t the priority anymore. What matters is how I manage and close this trade.
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#AIInfraFundingDiverges
#StrategySellsBTCAgain BTC — 63,400 USD, CPI slowdown can't save it
BTC reported at 63,400 USD, down 0.37% in 24 hours. Last night, the US July CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, in line with expectations (previous 3.5%). The data caused a brief spike but then fizzled out. The positive news can't push it — high oil prices (energy up 14.7% year-on-year) suggest the risk of rate hikes remains, and negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz are deadlocked. Small mining companies and listed firms have sold 28,000 BTC (about 1.8 billion USD) this year, maintaining marginal selling pressure. The fear index is 37, still "fear".
50% are consolidating between 63k-64.5k; 35% fall below 63k heading to 62k; 15% hold above 64.5k aiming for 65k+. $BTC Brothers, $BICO is like a stone in a latrine, both stinky and hard, getting cut by the market makers whether you short or long.
$BEAT is also jumping all over the place, making me lose my mind. It's okay, today we're playing mainstream—shorting $SNXX.
This coin is completely different from those altcoins I dealt with before. SNXX is a 2x long daily ETF on SNDK issued by Tradr, tracking SanDisk's stock.
SanDisk is a global storage chip giant, listed on Nasdaq in February 2025, and its stock price hit a historic high of $2354 in June this year. SNXX is a leveraged ETF tracking twice the daily price movement of SanDisk—if SanDisk goes up 1%, SNXX goes up 2%.
But I choose to short it.
First, SanDisk's positive earnings report has been fully priced in. The recently disclosed report showed revenue of $8.965 billion, a 372% year-over-year increase, and profits 135 times last year's. However, after the report, the stock price plunged from 2354 to 1238, a 47% retracement. Market expectations were already overextended; good news is bad news.
Second, the performance is propped up by price hikes, not real demand. Two-thirds of revenue growth comes from NAND flash price increases, only one-third from shipment volume growth. End-user demand can't withstand high prices.
Third, the storage cycle is cooling down. In Q3, DRAM price increases dropped sharply from 74% to 17%, NAND from 70% to 20%. The price hike dividend is almost gone, so the stock price still has to fall.
The SNXXUSDT perpetual contract just launched on July 14. I opened a short position at an average price of 10.93, mark price 10.92, isolated margin 3x, small position to test the waters [see screenshot]. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it and maybe deliver a few more takeout orders.
Brothers, this trade follows the fundamentals. Do you think it will work?
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温