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#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
I believe the July CPI data marks the market's official entry into the "soft landing expectation verification period." The Federal Reserve is very likely to keep interest rates unchanged in September, but the stickiness of long-term rates means asset prices are unlikely to experience a broad surge, with structural opportunities outperforming beta-driven rallies.
This time, the CPI year-over-year at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.5% both met expectations, indicating that the inflation decline trend is established but has not accelerated into a collapse. The most direct market response is that the probability of maintaining rates in September rose to 59.9%, and short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell accordingly. However, gold's "fall first then rise" pattern and BTC's continued volatility reveal that while the market is trading on "rate cut expectations," it is also wary of the long-term inflation risks posed by fiscal deficits.
Asset correlation response: At the moment the data was released, gold experienced a liquidity squeeze-driven drop followed by a rapid rebound, indicating that bullish confidence remains; BTC was not significantly impacted by negative news and maintained sideways consolidation, showing its sensitivity to macro liquidity is dulling and it is shifting focus to its own ecological cycle.
Yield curve shape: The decline in short-term yields confirms the policy peak, but long-term rates remain firm supported by term premiums, meaning borrowing costs will not quickly return to a zero interest rate era in the medium to long term.
Although cooling inflation reduces the necessity for rate hikes, it does not provide sufficient reason for an immediate large rate cut.
@OKX星球 Will FIL go to zero?
I've actually been thinking about this question repeatedly recently.
Not because I think FIL is about to crash, but because its trend is the easiest to wear down the mentality of long-term holders.
The project is still alive.
The team is still working.
The ecosystem is not dead either.
But the coin price keeps giving you a feeling of "can it still make it?"
This is the most tormenting part about FIL.
If you ask me, will FIL go to zero?
My judgment is: in the short term, I don't think so.
But I want to remind you that one of the most dangerous misconceptions in crypto is to interpret "won't go to zero" as "so it's very cheap now."
These are completely different things.
A project not dying doesn't mean the token will necessarily perform well.
FIL's most obvious problem over the years is not a lack of technology or narrative.
Its problem is that there has never been a strong enough positive feedback loop between project growth and token value.
The Filecoin network is still running, storage demand truly exists, and FVM is continuously being built.
I acknowledge all of these.
But for FIL holders, what really matters is not "Filecoin is still alive."
It's:
Does the value created by this network ultimately return to FIL?
If not, then the more the project tries, the weaker the coin price becomes, and this divergence will only get more painful.
Now when I look at FIL, I no longer care much about when it will suddenly spike with a big bullish candle.
I only look at three things.
First, whether real paid storage demand is continuously growing.
Second, whether ecosystem revenue is significantly improving.
Third, whether FIL's own supply and demand structure is starting to improve.
If these three things gradually synchronize, I will raise my expectations again.
If not, I'd rather keep waiting.
Because I increasingly dislike the logic of "it has dropped a lot, so it should rise now."
The market never compensates you just because you lost a lot.
Nor does a coin automatically become cheap just because it fell 90% from its high.
What FIL really needs to prove is not that it won't go to zero.
But whether it can still make capital believe again:
Holding FIL itself is valuable.
That is the key.
So if I had to choose now, I wouldn't focus on "whether it goes to zero or not."
I'm more concerned about:
Whether FIL still has the ability to rebuild value capture.
If yes, it still has a chance.
If not, even if it keeps living, it might just be an asset where "the project is still there, but fewer and fewer people want to hold the coin."
This is what I truly worry about regarding FIL.
Study trends, seek certainty.
Reject emotions, respect logic.
— Zero Chain Leader
⚠️ The above only represents personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. FIL is a highly volatile crypto asset; please make independent judgments and manage your position and risk accordingly.
#FIL #Filecoin #Crypto #DePIN #DecentralizedStorage
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% #芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22% $BTC has turned green, $ETH is still getting hit: Who exactly benefited from this CPI good news?
Just took a look at the market.
$BTC has quietly climbed back above 63,500 and turned green in the last 24 hours.
$ETH, however, is still hovering around 1,880, still red in the last 24 hours, it surged past 1,925 last night but gave back almost all gains today.
Same CPI data.
BTC at least looks like it’s catching its breath, ETH seems like it didn’t get any relief.
I now have a rather uncomfortable thought:
ETH isn’t unable to fall further; rather, funds simply don’t want to touch it first.
CPI eased fears of a September rate hike a bit; the normal script would be ETH showing greater elasticity and outperforming BTC.
But the opposite happened.
BTC is sideways at 63K, ETH can’t even reclaim 1,900.
This shows the market isn’t looking for “less bad macro data” right now, but a real return of risk appetite backed by actual money.
Before PPI, I really felt itchy.
Want to short ETH, but afraid it suddenly bounces back to 1,900 and crushes shorts.
Want to go long ETH, but afraid the intraday low of 1,873 gets smashed again.
The most tormenting thing isn’t the lack of movement.
It’s knowing it’s about to choose a direction, but every direction seems to wait until you place your order before moving.
$BTC $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 I will create a series of content about CORE. Friends who are interested can follow and watch 【CORE DAO Long-term Value Research ①】
What exactly is CORE DAO doing?
Many people understand CORE as "a BTCFi public chain," but I think this is not entirely accurate.
What Core truly wants to do is to build a set of financial infrastructure around Bitcoin.
Core logic:
BTC
↓
BTC Staking
↓
BTCFi
↓
Lending / LST / DEX / Yield
↓
Generate Revenue
↓
CORE Buyback
↓
Increase in CORE demand and locking
↓
Form value capture
This is the core of CORE's long-term value.
Core's biggest opportunity is not to become "just another public chain," but to become an important gateway for Bitcoin assets entering the on-chain financial world.
In 2026, Core's roadmap is also advancing from pure BTC Staking toward Revenue, including BTC Staking, AMP, BTC LST, Dual Staking Marketplace, ETF/ETP, and enterprise solutions.
So in the future, when evaluating CORE, I will not only look at TVL.
I pay more attention to six indicators:
1. BTC Staked
2. CORE Staked
3. TVL
4. Revenue
5. CORE Buyback
6. BTCFi market share
If the BTC scale keeps growing but Core cannot generate Revenue, then CORE's long-term value remains limited.
Conversely, if Core can form:
BTC growth → BTCFi growth → Revenue growth → Buyback growth → CORE demand growth
Then CORE truly transitions from a "narrative Token" to a "value capture Token."
In a word:
I study CORE not because it is a public chain, but because it may become part of Bitcoin's financial infrastructure.
This article is only for personal research and opinion sharing and does not constitute investment advice. The market has just completed a "major shift in expectations." A month ago, people were still guessing whether there would be a rate hike in September; now 64% are betting on no change. July's CPI at +3.4% and a sudden cooling in employment data have effectively overturned the Federal Reserve's "continued rate hikes" table—not because inflation has dropped to zero, but because the panic over "higher for longer" has started to subside.
The real turning point has never been when rate cuts land, but when the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields begin to bow early. This transmission chain is now emerging: short-term interest rates fall → dollar weakens → real interest rates decline. What BTC fears is never high interest rates, but "suddenly higher for longer."
From now on, just keep an eye on three signals: the dollar index, 2-year U.S. Treasuries, and BTC spot fund flows. If all three turn simultaneously, then no rate hike in September is just a pretense; the market is front-running the eve of the next round of liquidity easing.凌晨三点，我盯着屏幕，BTC 横在一条窄得让人犯困的区间里，但下面的山寨其实早就闹翻了。 你有没有发现，行情走到现在，真正拉开差距的已经不是谁涨得快，而是涨完之后谁还在？ 我最近把各板块的成交和回撤翻了一遍，最直观的感受是：这轮市场不再是一起涨一起跌的联动行情了，而是分裂成好几个小剧场在各自演。BTC 还是那个定海神针，但钱并没有乖乖待在那里，而是沿着不同叙事来回试探。有些板块是有人真金白银在守，有些纯粹是热得快凉得也快。 先看 L1 这条线，AVAX、NEAR、TIA、SUI、APT 这些重新回到了视线里，资金回流比较明显。而另一边 SEI、ZIL、HBAR、IOTA 这些还在等风来，暂时没看到太多实质性的承接。 RWA 和 DeFi 这边也挺有意思，ONDO、PENDLE、AAVE、UNI 这些老面孔又活跃起来了，更像是成熟资金在找收益出口。AI 板块则明显变挑了，TAO、RNDR、WLD、FET 还能维持关注度，但其他跟风的概念已经不太跟得动了。Meme 还是那副高波动的老样子，PEPE、WIF、BONK 短线热闹，但能不能留住人又是另一回事。 这里有个容易被忽略的点：关注度不等Micron $MU locks in the floor price with 3-5 year SCA agreements, while the intense fluctuations in the spot market are contained within the defense line set by long-term capital expenditure certainty.
On the market, the rigid demand for AI servers dominates, relegating short-term spot price fluctuations to a secondary position.
Stable inflation expectations have improved risk appetite, causing some funds that speculate on spot price differences to shift toward long-term contracts that lock in floor prices for defense.
Whether the pricing mechanism restructuring brought by large client order locking can truly absorb spot selling pressure still depends on the execution pace of downstream data center capital expenditures.
If downstream data center capital expenditures continue to expand and long-term contracts are implemented as planned, the floor price support will consolidate position consistency; if spot selling pressure suddenly increases and squeezes the long-term contract premium, this bullish logic will be invalidated.
If macro risk appetite declines and causes server clients to tighten capital expenditures, long-term contract terms may face renegotiation or slower fulfillment; if spot prices unexpectedly surge again, this bearish scenario will quickly become invalid.
If computing power capital expenditures face significant cuts, the original assumption of profit certainty will be directly disproved, and the market will revert to the traditional storage cycle game.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is the change in capital expenditure guidance from major downstream server manufacturers.
#海力士推进NAND扩产，存储供给预期上升 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% #贝莱德IBIT换购门槛降至100万美元Samsung's knight steps onto the seventh rank, SK Hynix's bishop tears through the opponent's king's wing—KOSPI declares a technical bull market with 22 pawn moves, but the true grandmaster is only watching Temasek's hand that has yet to fall.
When the murky tide of leverage recedes, what remains on the board is not money, but the position. The low point on July 30 was a standard midgame overextension: the rear-wing pawns were lured by a false large space and ultimately sacrificed and counterattacked by the opponent. Now, with the memory cycle rising and AI capital expenditures surging like pawns on both wings toward the center, and foreign capital inflows like a reopened rear diagonal—every move hints that the initiative in this game is shifting hands.
Don't get it wrong, a technical bull market is not a safe haven after castling. It is merely a deep breath before the midgame melee. Samsung rises 5%, SK Hynix rises 7%, triggering programmatic buy halts, equivalent to double rooks delivering consecutive checks on the board, forcing the opponent to pause the timer to catch their breath. But grandmasters know well: a continuous pawn assault often exposes cracks in the rear formation.
Rumors about Temasek are the most subtle unresolved mystery in this game. Investment or an unconfirmed "pending move," it hangs like a piece suspended in midair, capable of becoming a bridgehead supporting the attack or a burden being restrained. A smart player does not move the king just because the opponent stands up—the rumor has never been played; it is just air.
What is more worrisome is concentration. The three Korean chip giants have placed all their advantages on a single king's wing pawn chain. When the market ties valuation repair, foreign capital inflows, and the AI cycle all to the same bishop line, the outcome of this game no longer depends on how far you calculate, but on whether you can find that "passing move" on the opponent's flank.
XPL's correlated movement is like pawns on another isomorphic board—it follows Korean chips but lacks its own breakthrough in front of the king. As the undercurrent of the memory cycle overflows through lithography and memory chips, XPL is merely a pawn pushed by the wave, not the player designing the wave.
Leverage-driven sell-offs leave open lines; foreign capital-driven replenishment temporarily secures the king's wing. But is this really a comeback in the endgame? A technical bull market is just a marker in the midgame; true grandmasters never name moves as "bull market" or "bear market," only judge the position as "good" or "bad." KOSPI's 22 moves today are just a beautiful bishop pinning the center—it passes pressure to the opponent but does not deliver a real kill.
A lone rook advancing deep will eventually encounter traps on the baseline.
KOSPI's game has not yet entered the endgame. But a glance at the pawn structure shows that all seemingly completed castlings are just steps laid for the next sacrifice. #KoreaChipsLeadRebound Elon Musk is hyping up again.
At a SpaceX all-hands meeting, he made a statement that directly redefined the company's positioning — "In five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX's value."
In Musk's view, SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company. AI revenue is expected to surpass the total of all other company businesses by September. By the end of next year, they aim to reach 10 gigawatts of computing power. According to his calculations, that translates to $300 to $500 billion in annual revenue. What does 10 gigawatts mean? It’s like running hundreds of thousands of GPUs simultaneously, consuming enough electricity to power a medium-sized city.
He also proposed a "ground training, space inference" approach, effectively packaging Starship's transport capacity, Starlink network, and AI computing power into a single infrastructure. Rockets are not just for launching satellites; they are paving the way for AI. The approach is ambitious, but the direction is indeed on point. With Starlink coverage already so extensive, adding space-based computing nodes would elevate the entire network architecture beyond terrestrial data centers.
What does this have to do with crypto?
First, AI computing power demand is still exploding, not linear but exponential. If Musk’s 10 gigawatts plan materializes, hardware procurement alone will be astronomical. Miners waiting for computing costs to drop shouldn’t hold their breath in the short term; demand is still surging.
Second, capital will continue to concentrate in the AI sector. AI projects and DePIN projects in the crypto space will find it easier to attract attention and funding, but the prerequisite is that you actually have something real, not just a flashy PPT.
Third, the intersection of AI and crypto is deepening. Musk is working on space inference, crypto projects are working on decentralized computing power, and these two paths may eventually converge at some point. Whoever figures it out first will be the infrastructure of the next era.
Here’s my take. Musk’s statement sounds like bragging, but his track record of delivering on big claims is better than most people think. Starlink, Starship, and Tesla’s AI training clusters are all solidly implemented. With SpaceX’s cash flow and Starlink revenue backing 10 gigawatts, it’s at least much more reliable than those vaporware projects in crypto.
But for traders, this level of narrative corresponds to a very long investment cycle. You know it might be right, but the process will involve countless fluctuations. From a big-picture perspective, the AI sector is still in its early stages; the real big market rally hasn’t arrived yet. #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $BTC CPI met expectations, rate hike expectations cooled down, and tech stocks indeed breathed a sigh of relief.
Many people want to go all in at once, but I suggest staying steady~
However, if you plan to invest for the medium to long term (1 year+), relying solely on macro discount rates to pull valuations is far from enough. The key going forward is still to see if corporate EPS and AI spending can be monetized.
Personally, I prefer a "core + flexible" approach:
• 60%-70% core: QQQ / tech giants as the foundation. Strong cash flow, solid defense, can hold on.
• 20%-30% satellite: semiconductors / AI computing power / cloud computing. Capture high Beta flexibility.
• 10% cash/short-term bonds: reserved for buying the dip, never go all in at once.
Positive news often comes with volatility, so don't rush to FOMO chase highs. Build your position over 3-6 months, hold the core, and wait for earnings reports to validate the logic—that's the hard truth.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
#芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22% The most common misunderstanding on the one-hour trending chart is that the total volume is mistaken for trends. The official snapshot of OKX Onchain OS dated 08:00 on August 13 shows that BTC, ETH, and SOL were mentioned 57, 27, and 40 times respectively in the past hour; The total 24-hour volume was 1,482, 638, and 601 times. To compare the two windows, you can first divide the total of 24 hours by 24, then use the latest hour to compare. The results were BTC at 0.92x, ETH at 1.02x, and SOL at 1.60x. A score above one indicates activity in the most recent hour compared to the full-day average; below one indicates relative quiet; This is just a discussion of speed, not rate of return. Based on this caliber, BTC is roughly close to the long window average, ETH is roughly close to the long window average, and SOL is clearly accelerating. Whoever has the highest original mentions may not necessarily be the one whose baseline temperature is rising the fastest. Distinguishing between "the highest volume" and the "fastest acceleration" can reduce many misjudgments. The tone is another layer to consider. BTC is close between bulls and bears, with slightly bullish and bearish rates of 30% and 26%, respectively; ETH is close between bulls and bears, with ratios of 26% and 22%; SOL is clearly bullish, with proportions of 35% and 8%. The key here is the denominator. ETH only happens 27 times per hour, SOL 40 times, so a few new texts can significantly change the percentage; Although BTC has a larger sample size, it may also contain forwards of the same event#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
The US July CPI year-on-year dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%, and the core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, overall in line with expectations. The data itself is somewhat positive, at least indicating that inflation has not spiraled out of control again. Coupled with previously weak non-farm payrolls, the Federal Reserve has less reason to continue raising rates in September.
However, the market reaction was not as strong as expected. BTC is currently fluctuating around $63,500, and gold has retreated from its post-CPI rise to around $4,386. This indicates that the market has already priced in some cooling of inflation, and a CPI that meets expectations is not enough to open up new upside.
For the US stock market, especially AI tech stocks, the easing of rate hike pressure at least relieves valuation pressure; for BTC to truly rise, the US dollar and US Treasury yields still need to decline further; the short-term drop of gold below $4,400 should not be overinterpreted, as the medium-term factors of the Middle East, fiscal deficit, and monetary policy remain.
CPI is just a pass, not the starting gun. Tonight we continue to watch PPI, and what really determines whether inflation can continue to fall is crude oil. If Brent remains high for a long time, the relief brought by this round of CPI may not last long.Who are the institutions really betting on? BTC or the iron anchor? To be honest, ETH has already started to grab incremental inflows. Every time I see spot ETF capital flows, I take a closer look. This is the traditional financial sector's real-name vote for the crypto world: where the money flows shows what they trust more. First, let's ask: do institutions still only love "digital gold" BTC, or have they started seriously pricing ETH as the "on-chain economy"? BTC remains the absolute anchor.
Spot $BTC ETFs have been the main entry point for institutions into crypto since their launch. According to CoinShares data, when crypto fund AUM once surged to $211 billion, BTC always held the majority. Even when BTC and ETH combined attracted $3.7 billion in a single week, BTC never gave up its position. The logic is simple: scarcity, inflation resistance, macro hedge, and easy to justify to the board. But ETH is grabbing incremental inflows.
What’s really interesting is that $ETH once had a week where spot ETF inflows hit $2.12 billion, nearly matching BTC’s $2.196 billion. This shows the market is seriously considering: should we move beyond "only buying digital gold" and buy something with staking yields and real application use? ETF capital flows are more than price signals; they resemble a risk appetite check from traditional finance. Only buying BTC means crypto is still seen as a hedge plus speculation; ETH grabbing volume means some are willing to bet on a real on-chain economy emerging. BTC remains the ballast stone, while ETH is competing for those wanting to capture incremental growth money. Micron $MU locks in a floor price through 3-5 year SCA agreements, converting cyclical spot fluctuations into capital expenditure certainty, but the transmission of risk appetite depends on whether downstream computing power Capex can continue to fulfill long-term contracts.
Market facts show that strong demand from major clients for locked orders has driven a restructuring of storage chip pricing logic. In terms of driving factors, AI servers' rigid demand ranks first, followed closely by macro inflation expectations and changes in risk appetite, while short-term spot price fluctuations have become secondary.
From the perspective of event risk transmission, stable inflation expectations help sustain investment in computing infrastructure, and the market's risk appetite for tech growth stocks rises, driving capital allocation toward long-term contract targets with floor price defense attributes.
The bullish scenario trigger is that downstream data center Capex maintains expansion, with more 3-5 year SCA long-term contracts implemented as planned. At this time, it is necessary to observe the fulfillment rate of major clients' long-term contracts; if fulfillment is stable and the floor price protection is effective, it will enhance consistency in position holding; a failure signal would be a sudden surge in spot selling pressure squeezing long-term contract premiums.
The bearish scenario trigger is a decline in macro risk appetite causing server clients to tighten Capex, thereby triggering risks of long-term contract renegotiation or slower fulfillment pace. At this time, it is necessary to monitor long-term contract default risk indicators and the speed of position outflows; if major clients show signs of early order adjustments, selling pressure will be rapidly released; a failure signal would be an unexpected jump in spot prices again.
If downstream computing power Capex is significantly cut or large-scale long-term contract term renegotiations occur, the original assumption of earnings certainty will directly fail, and capital positions will revert to the traditional storage cycle game framework.
The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are changes in Capex guidance from major downstream server manufacturers and disclosures of storage chip long-term contract fulfillment data.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22% #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场July’s U.S. inflation print shifts the balance of risk without settling the policy debate. Headline CPI eased to 3.4% YoY and core CPI to 2.5%, both matching forecasts, while the odds of no September rate change rose to 59.9%.
The more revealing signal is the divergence across markets: short-term Treasury yields declined, gold reversed an initial fall, and BTC remained rangebound. That suggests less urgency around an immediate hike, not broad conviction that inflation risk has disappeared. With fiscal deficits and term premiums still supporting long-end rates, today’s PPI matters for whether this repricing can hold. Not advice, just analysis.
#CPIEasesHikeBets#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Noticing Musk's statement "AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value in five years," let me pour some cold water first: don't be misled by slogans; this is a valuation anchor shift, not a zeroing out of the rocket business.
Hard data shows: Q2 AI revenue was $2.6 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 213% and year-on-year increase of 247%. By September, AI revenue is expected to surpass the combined total of aerospace and Starlink, aiming for 10 gigawatts of computing power by the end of next year, corresponding to annual revenue of $300–500 billion.
In the mid-term view, Starship/Starlink are not abandoned but downgraded to "AI physical infrastructure"—training on the ground, inference in orbit, with rockets becoming computing power transport tools. This narrative directly shifts SpaceX from aerospace private equity to AI public stock, changing the valuation model; this is the real meaning of the 99%.
The intelligence guy's judgment: short-term is just painting a picture; mid-term looks at the landing of 10 gigawatts and monetization of Grok enterprise API. As long as computing power rental income continues to be confirmed, SpaceX will no longer be an aerospace stock but a space computing power stock. But 99% is an extreme extrapolation; the tangible value of aerospace assets is less than 1%. Mid-term belief in "AI dominance" is enough; don't believe in "aerospace zeroing out."
Play it safe, wait for Q3-Q4 revenue structure to materialize before adjusting the anchor.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$SPCX Wind speed is four meters per second, humidity is sixty-five percent, target distance is 1,800 meters. In my scope, breathing must be precisely timed between two heartbeats—because in a long-range hunting ground, even the slightest pulse tremor can cause the bullet to deviate by tens of centimeters from the bullseye.
That obsessive commander is again assigning new coordinates to his tactical squad over the radio: before September this year, the cash flow generated by algorithmic computing power must overwhelm the roar of all hydrocarbon fuels on the launch tower; by the end of 2027, a ten-gigawatt computing power matrix must achieve battlefield results worth 300 to 500 billion USD annually; within five years, 99% of the entire arsenal’s value must hinge on the firing pin of this space armor-piercing round called “ground training, space reasoning.”
To onlookers, this sounds like a super heavy round piercing through the era. But the sniper lying in the damp cold cover only sees the cold truth of ballistics.
The ideal parabolic trajectory on the blueprint never equals a confirmed kill at the impact point. A ten-gigawatt giant computing power matrix means a terrifying recoil generated by hundreds of billions in capital expenditure. The frequency of Starship launches, orbital heat dissipation bottlenecks, interference from high-altitude high-energy particles—each unresolved engineering variable is an unpredictable high-altitude crosswind. The funds frantically chasing on the board are like a group of rookies blindly cheering through night vision goggles, celebrating victory before even calculating the target’s wind drift correction.
Glancing at the $XMSFT order book linked to tactical coordination, the halo at the edge of the crosshair is slightly deflected under the heavy pressure of capital expenditure. Management’s performance forecasts are just manual data before shooting; before the black hole of capital consumption and the risks of actual execution are fully priced by the market, prematurely exposing your hidden position and blindly pulling the trigger will only make you a target for the enemy’s anti-materiel rifle.
My hunting ground’s iron rule is always one: trading is not about the frequency of gunfire, but about long silent lurking and ruthless one-shot kills. Without forming an excellent risk-reward ratio and without waiting for the target to fully enter the rangefinder’s blind spot, any emotional impulse is fatal.
Wind shifts, bolt locks.
#SpaceX99%ValueFromAI Last night I watched people pump the GME bottom pool all night but didn't take action. When your attention is fully on it, you can actually make a profit as long as you're quick.
On BSC, a few projects are still holding up clearly; those with many retail investors can't hold on anymore, while those with high control can still manage, with little volatility. As long as the whales don't retreat, these high-control projects are relatively stable. Of course, projects with many retail investors that entered early have greater potential. It depends on which type suits you.
Actually, many projects follow patterns. For example, a few days ago, by guessing who was calling the shots, I identified the whale behind a project and then used the previous project's trend to reverse-engineer this project's movement. It turned out to be 100% accurate.
$BTC AI earnings season, a tale of two extremes.
CoreWeave, a leader in compute cloud, reported Q2 revenue of $2.575 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, directly exceeding expectations, with its stock price rising 19% that evening. Nebius rose 34%, AMD rose 19%, and optical communications company Lumentum rose 13.63%. It seems the AI fundamentals are very strong, right?
But on the same day, Meta fell 3.38%, Microsoft fell 2.26%, and the tech giants as a whole declined. All the capital is rushing into "AI infrastructure stocks," while the leaders are being abandoned.
A few days ago, Ray Dalio publicly said: "We are already in an AI bubble." He gave three signs of a burst bubble: rising interest rates, increased stock supply, and retail investors leveraging up to rush in.
The earnings are really good, and valuations are really high. Is it the fundamentals holding up, or the final frenzy?Combining the previous round's pressure/support framework, break down the current SNDK trading approach (closing at 1344.29 on 8/12, stuck between 1300 support and 1389/1500 resistance) into three scenarios, all based on "no trend longs under bearish moving average alignment, only rebound or breakdown shorts."
1. Current Market Qualitative Assessment
• Main trend: Bearish (price below MA20≈1393, MA50≈1688; ADX 15.6 indicates weak trend but downward direction)
• Short term: 1300–1389 range consolidation, MACD negative bars narrowing, RSI ~47 neutral, representing oversold recovery rather than reversal
• Fundamental overhang: NAND Q3 contract price gains dropped sharply from +70% to +17~20%; on 8/13 investor day, wide-range oscillation likely to persist, making one-sided moves difficult
2. Three Trading Scripts (applicable to spot/perpetual, price points in USD)
Script A: Buy on support pullback (short-term rebound, medium priority)
• Entry: 1300–1264 (around MA10 + 1300 psychological level), more conservative at 1230–1240 (8/3 rebound start zone) with volume contraction and bullish close
• Stop loss: Exit if price breaks below 1190 effectively (i.e., losing 1200 round number support), no holding through
• Targets: First 1389 (8/12 high) → Second 1487–1500 (MA20 strong resistance zone)
• Position size: ≤20%, leverage ≤3x; halve position at 1389 to secure breakeven, remaining position targets 1487
• Trigger conditions: Opening does not break 1300, MU/WDC/SK Hynix simultaneously stop falling, 5-minute volume surge bullish candle confirmation
Script B: Short at rebound to resistance (with main trend, high priority)
• Entry: 1389–1410 (intraday high + previous high resistance) with stagnation and long upper shadow; or 1487–1500 (MA20) rally then pullback
• Stop loss: Above 1520 (bullish surprise) to stop loss, indicating resistance failure
• Targets: First 1300 → Second 1210–1230 → Third 998–1000 (monthly low)
• Position size: ≤15%; this is the higher probability plan following bearish moving averages, but note 1300 has support, so take partial profits at first target
• Trigger conditions: Rebound with low volume, weak storage sector/SOX, CPI or US Treasury yields leaning hawkish
Script C: Breakdown short (defense line breached, medium priority)
• Signal: Daily candle effectively breaks below 1300 and next candle does not recover → or further break below 1210 platform
• Entry: Short on failure to reclaim 1300 after break; or short directly on break below 1210
• Stop loss: Pullback above breakdown price by 2% (e.g., if break 1300, stop loss at 1326)
• Targets: 1000 round number → extreme 850 (July panic extension level)
• This is only done when accompanied by bearish news like "NVIDIA cuts HBM/NAND prices again"; pure technical breakdowns often encounter bottom-fishing rebounds around 1200
Counter-trend breakout long (standby only, not active)
• Condition: Large volume bullish close above 1500 (upper MA20)
• Stop loss 1389, target 1707 (MA50) — no trend longs before this candle
3. Risk Control Iron Rules (SNDK volatility often 10%+, mandatory for contracts)
1. Single trade loss capped at 1–2% principal, leverage ≤3x, no heavy positions 30 minutes before open (US market often gaps at 21:30 Beijing time)
2. No chasing rallies or selling into dips within the 1300–1389 range; wait for boundary touch + candle confirmation before acting
3. Always pre-set stop loss, no averaging down; lock profits at first target to breakeven
4. Monitor MU, WDC, SK Hynix, SOX — SanDisk rebounds alone tend to be weak, trade with sector resonance
5. News around 8/13 investor day prone to spikes; try to close positions intraday, avoid overnight holds
Summary: 1300 is the bull-bear gate, 1389 is the short-term ceiling, 1500 is the trend switch. Below 1500, treat overall as "rebound—short or breakdown short"; only above 1500 consider trend reversal longs. #黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温
· Why is the gold price so strong? In the short term, focus on tonight's (August 13) US July CPI data. If inflation is lower than expected, it will strengthen rate cut expectations, directly benefiting gold. The medium- to long-term support comes from the three points you mentioned: rate cut expectations (weak employment data), geopolitical risks (the Hormuz agreement not finalized), and central banks' continued gold purchases. This round of rally has a more solid fundamental basis than before.
· Large unusual movements in XAUT (Tether Gold): Abraxas Capital transferred $110 million worth of XAUT, usually indicating large funds adjusting positions or preparing for trades, not direct buying. However, the wallet still holds about $600 million, showing that big players have not exited and remain confident about the market.
· On the controversy of "digital gold": The post mocking BTC as "playing dead" is quite vivid. The current market logic is "safe haven" and "rate cut resistance," with funds flowing directly into physical gold and its token (XAUT). BTC leans more toward "risk assets" and only shows "digital gold" traits during true global panic, so it indeed did not keep up this time.
· What to watch next? The short-term key variable is the CPI data; mid-term focus is on whether geopolitical tensions worsen; technically, $4400 has become strong support, and if it holds, the next step may test the psychological $4500 level.
Overall, gold's strength has a solid foundation, and XAUT, as an on-chain compliant gold token, directly benefits. But if tonight's CPI exceeds expectations, it may trigger sharp volatility, so short-term trading should be cautious of risks. #黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温
Lately, I've been closely watching the gold trend, and honestly, the momentum is really strong.
Gold prices have surpassed the $4400 mark, reaching a high of $4448.8 per ounce on August 11. The increase this month alone has exceeded 8%, with silver also strengthening in tandem. It's not just spot gold; on-chain gold assets have seen significant capital movements as well. Abraxas Capital's related wallets transferred about 25,400 XAUT in three days, equivalent to $110 million, while the total wallet holdings remain close to $600 million. Large funds are clearly active in the precious metals sector.
This round of gold price strength is driven by multiple factors. Weak employment data has lowered market expectations for rate hikes. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz negotiations have stalled, and with central banks worldwide continuing to buy gold, risk-averse capital is flocking in, layer by layer supporting the gold price.
One detail I noticed is that while traditional gold surged, Bitcoin, known as digital gold, did not keep pace this time, showing a clear decoupling.
The key focus now is tonight's US July CPI data, which will directly influence the direction of the dollar and real interest rates, likely causing significant volatility in precious metals. Whether gold and on-chain XAUT can maintain this strength ultimately depends on whether risk-averse funds continue to stay in the precious metals sector. The market changes rapidly; I will keep observing and avoid blindly chasing highs. 政策这只靴子，终于在华盛顿的地板上挪动了几步，声音不大，但圈内人都竖起了耳朵。SEC那边传来消息，说接下来几天要推两件大事，一件是给加密项目的募资开一条专属通道，圈里人管这叫Regulation Crypto，说白了就是别再逼着每个项目都走传统IPO那套让人脱层皮的流程，给个豁免的台阶，让大家能光明正大地筹钱。另一件更有意思，是要搞个创新豁免，让数字版股票能在区块链上全天候交易，七天二十四小时不停歇，这要是真成了，美股那套朝九晚四的老规矩，怕是要被撬开一道口子。 很多人可能会问，这算不算美国终于想通了？别急，故事还没到高潮。众议院那边早在2025年7月就以294票对134票的悬殊比分通过了一个叫《数字资产市场清晰法案》的东西，听着挺提气，参议院银行委员会也过了，可一到了参议院全体投票这关，就像老牛拉破车，硬生生卡在八月的休会期前，愣是没捞到表决机会。现在说要等九月中旬，但掐指一算，中期选举在即，政治日程挤得跟早高峰地铁似的，加上一堆关于道德条款、DeFi这些犄角旮旯的争议还没磨平，华盛顿那帮分析师给出的通过概率，也就勉强25%，这个数字，让人心里凉半截。 可你说怪不怪，SEC这边倒是一#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
All four figures stayed on the expected line — July CPI year-on-year 3.4% (previous 3.5%), core CPI year-on-year 2.5% (previous 2.6%), core month-on-month 0.2%, none exceeded expectations.
The biggest positive is not a sharp drop in inflation, but "not scaring the market again." With the data settled, the probability of maintaining the interest rate in September rose to 59.9%; CME's September rate hike probability fell to a one-month low, ZeroHedge said it cut 16 points compared to two weeks ago. The dollar briefly surged then softened, short-term US Treasury yields fell back, gold first dropped then rose to touch 4389 — funds are repricing "the Fed temporarily holding steady."
BTC was actually the calmest: 63550 sideways, 24h slightly down 0.4%, perpetual OI $2.14 billion unchanged, fees +0.01% neutral. Inflation soft landing is usually positive, but this time it chose to wait — because the real market movers are tonight's PPI and employment revisions, CPI only opened a decent start.
Optimists should not forget: nonfarm payrolls were revised down by nearly 70,000 in May and June, July employment has turned negative, the race between worsening employment and Middle East inflation is the next stage's bet.
#CPI #FederalReserve $BTC $ETH $OKB Last night, the CPI at 3.4% fully met expectations, so why did $BTC only rise 0.3% before falling back?
Why did $ETH stay flat?
Last night, were you watching the CPI data with a racing heart?
After yesterday's CPI release, CME data showed the probability of maintaining rates in September rose to 59.9%.
The chance of a rate hike dropped from 50% to 40%, and expectations of a rate cut emerged — sounds great, right?
But the problem is: the market had already priced in the phrase "inflation cooling" before the CPI was released.
US July CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, core CPI 2.5%, both exactly hitting expectations.
Inflation cooling. September rate hike probability down. Negative factors disappeared.
$BTC should be taking off, right?
So what happened?
BTC rebounded from $63,200 to $64,400, up 1.9% — then reversed sharply down to around $63,500.
The full-day gain? 0.3%.
The Nasdaq rose 0.54%, gold had a V-shaped reversal gaining over 1%.
Bitcoin just laid flat like nothing happened.
Are you confused?
Where’s the problem?
"Meeting expectations" is the biggest problem itself.
The market never pays for what is "expected."
A month ago, the probability of a September rate hike was 30%. Everyone was anxious, panicked, and sleepless.
After yesterday's CPI release, CME data showed the probability of maintaining rates in September rose to 59.9%.
The chance of a rate hike dropped from 50% to 40%, and expectations of a rate cut emerged — sounds great, right?
But the problem is: the market had already priced in the phrase "inflation cooling" before the CPI was released.
Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $854 million, the strongest since May.
Smart money had already moved in.
When the data actually came out, everyone realized — "Oh, it’s as expected" — and then? Nothing.
The buying stopped. Because those who needed to buy, already did last week.
Negative factors disappearing does not equal positive factors appearing.
The market doesn’t want "no rate hike." The market wants "certainty of rate cuts."$BTC: Calm Before the Storm? 👀🔥
Bitcoin is moving sideways around $63.5K, but underneath the surface, things are getting interesting.
SAR is sitting near $64.4K, while EMA21 and EMA55 are both turning down. Every bounce is getting squeezed by resistance.
And then there’s the miner data… 👇
Bitcoin miner fee income has fallen to just 0.69% — near a 10-year low.
That sounds bearish at first. But historically, extreme miner-income weakness has often appeared around major BTC bottoming phases, including periods before the big moves in 2015 and 2019.
The crazy part? Hash rate is still making new highs. Miners are under pressure, but they’re still fighting to survive.
Meanwhile, KDJ is sitting low, RSI6 is around 38.8, and BTC volume is nowhere near strong enough to convince me that bulls can easily reclaim $65K.
So here’s the battle:
🔴 $65K = major resistance
🟡 $62K = key support
🟢 $60K = bulls’ last major defense
My short-term view: BTC could lose $63K, retest $62K, and then we’ll see whether the bulls can defend the bigger picture.
But here’s the twist…
What if this miner-income collapse isn’t a warning of a crash, but actually the signal that a major bottom is forming?
If history rhymes, $70K may not be as far away as it looks. 👀🚀
I’m watching the next few days very closely.
Bottom signal or crash signal? What’s your call? 🔥
#DailyOrbit Inflation cools down, why can't Bitcoin "rise"?
The US July CPI year-on-year dropped to 3.4%, and the core CPI dropped to 2.5%, both meeting expectations. With inflation continuously cooling, the probability of a rate hike in September fell from 48% before the data release to about 38%—this should have been a clear positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin did not rally accordingly; instead, it remained volatile around $63,500.
Expectations have long been priced in. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows of about $854 million over five consecutive days in the week before the CPI release, with funds already positioning ahead of the inflation slowdown and easing rate hike expectations. When the positive news arrived, there was no further reason for an additional surge.
Geopolitical risks act as a hedge. US-Iran negotiations stalled again, the expectation of reopening the Strait of Hormuz was dashed, and Brent crude oil climbed to $89. Rising oil prices, in turn, push up inflation expectations and rate hike concerns, offsetting the easing expectations brought by the cooling CPI.
Policy direction remains uncertain. Although inflation is cooling, it is still quite far from the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The probability of a rate hike in September remains close to 40%, and the market lacks directional consensus.
A "not too bad" data report does not equate to an immediate return of liquidity. Bitcoin's real breakthrough still awaits clearer policy signals.
$BTC
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 $LIGHT Bitlight In-Depth Research: Pump and Dump or Accumulating at Low Levels?
#Bitcoin Layer 2: Is It a Fake Demand?
90% of tokens are locked, who will take over?
Speaking of Bitcoin #Layer 2, this has been one of the hottest sectors in the crypto market since 2024. After Ethereum's restaking narrative became saturated, funds began flowing back into the Bitcoin ecosystem—#RGB Protocol, #Taproot Assets, #Ordinals... Various projects are racing to label Bitcoin as "programmable." Representative projects include #Stacks, #Merlin Chain, $B² Network. This sector once supported valuations worth billions during the bull market peak.
In this Bitcoin Layer 2 narrative wave, Bitlight Labs made a strong debut with the "RGB Protocol + Lightning Network" technical combo, claiming to bring smart contracts and stablecoin trading directly to the Bitcoin mainnet—no cross-chain, no third-party trust needed. Sounds great, right?
However, since $LIGHT launched on #PancakeSwap in October 2025, it has plummeted from a historical high of $4.80 to the current $0.16, a drop of 96.7%. Meanwhile, between a $67M FDV and a mere $6.9M circulating market cap, there is a huge 89.7% non-circulating gap—who exactly holds those locked tokens? Today, let's dig into this project's true situation. Yesterday, the Hong Kong stablecoin market took a very crucial step. Anchorpoint Financial, with participation from Standard Chartered Bank, officially launched the first phase issuance of the Hong Kong Dollar stablecoin HKD At Par (HKDAP). This is not a concept, testnet, or "preparing to apply for a license." Anchorpoint is already a formally licensed stablecoin issuer by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The HKMA issued only two stablecoin issuer licenses on April 10, 2026: Anchorpoint and HSBC. Now, one of them has truly started to bring the product to market. 1. The first phase is not for retail speculation Reuters' latest report shows that the first phase of HKDAP is mainly open to institutional distributors and professional investors. These authorized participants can complete the exchange between HKDAP and fiat currency and integrate it into commercial and financial applications. Anchorpoint clearly states that the current focus is on real use cases such as payments and settlements. The company plans to expand to retail users as early as the end of 2026, but this still depends on market conditions. This is very important. The primary goal of HKDAP is not: trading on exchanges for speculation; achieving high APY; issuing tokens to boost TVL. From the start, it is focused on: corporate settlements; payments; fiat currency exchange; commercial scenarios. This is completely different from the growth path of many crypto-native stablecoins. 2. The shareholder composition behind it itself indicates the direction AnchorAs of the morning of August 13, BTC was about $63,472, with an intraday high of about $64,298 and a low of about $63,267. After the US July CPI was released last night, BTC did not break out as the market had hoped for and remained trapped within the recent range of volatility. (1) No CPI explosion, but BTC didn't turn positive news into a rally US July CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, year-on-year from 3.5% in June to 3.4%; Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and fell from 2.6% year-on-year to 2.5%, basically in line with market expectations. After the data was released, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index weakened slightly, while US stocks actually rose. From the perspective of traditional risk assets, this CPI is at least not bad news. But BTC's problem lies precisely here: the macro environment has slightly improved, but prices have not reacted significantly. After the CPI, BTC still hovered below $64,000, indicating that what the market truly lacks now is not "a solid piece of data," but new funds that can actively chase prices. The Block also pointed out that BTC remains stuck in a fluctuating range of around $62,000–66,000 after the CPI. (2) ETFs have not regained strong buying momentum. Currently, Farside's latest table shows that all BTC ETF products on August 12 temporarily show 0.0; considering the data may continue to update, I won't directly interpret it as "completely zero capital flow on the day." The latest clearly confirmed complete non-zero data is still from August 1#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Folks, Musk is painting another big picture, and this time it's especially grand. These days, Mi Ge's livestream keeps emphasizing: don't short, don't short, don't short; only go long, chase the upswing, keep bullish. Currently, it's reached 149, truly impressive 🐮
In the early hours of August 12, SpaceX released an internal all-hands speech video by Musk. It lasts 29 minutes, with one core message: AI will devour SpaceX, and all other businesses are just supporting roles.
Let's first see what he said.
AI revenue will surpass the combined total of rockets, spacecraft, and Starlink businesses as soon as this September. Within four to five years, AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value. The goal is to build 10 gigawatts of AI computing power by the end of next year, corresponding to annual revenue of $300 billion to $500 billion. Starlink will carry over 90% of global internet traffic in the future. Starship's annual payload capacity will increase from 2,500 tons to over 1 million tons.
He also dropped a very Musk-like line: SpaceX's value will be an "astronomical number" five years from now.
Breaking down the numbers.
SpaceX's Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, with AI business at $2.6 billion, a quarter-over-quarter growth of 213% and year-over-year growth of 247%. Starlink brought in $4.291 billion, and space launches $962 million. AI business is already the second-largest revenue source, and its growth rate far exceeds traditional businesses. Surpassing other businesses combined by September seems possible at this growth rate.
But on the other hand, AI business had an operating loss of $1.26 billion in Q2. Last year, SpaceX lost $4.9 billion, mainly due to AI infrastructure investments. Capital expenditure for AI in the first half of this year soared from $3.3 billion in the same period last year to over $23 billion. 10 gigawatts of computing power means scaling the current size by ten times. Where will the money come from? By continuing to burn cash.
How did the market react?
On the day the earnings report came out, SpaceX fell 8% after hours because capital expenditure far exceeded expectations. The first batch of 911.5 million shares were unlocked, and the market feared a trillion-dollar sell-off pressure. However, after unlocking, the stock price rose 23% in two days, short sellers got squeezed. But don't celebrate too early; on August 20, another batch of about 7% restricted shares will be unlocked [contextual supplement]. Short positions hold 219 million shares, accounting for 34% of the float; these folks won't give up easily [contextual supplement].
Mi Ge has a few words.
The pies Musk paints are never meant to be eaten but to support valuation. From Tesla to SpaceX, he's played this game for over a decade with consistent success. But this time, a few issues deserve a few more seconds of thought.
99% of valuation comes from AI, implying that rockets, Starlink, and Starship—things built over twenty years—will only be worth 1% in five years. Then why spend so much money on Starship? Why launch tens of thousands of satellites? Logically, it doesn't add up. It seems more like telling the market a bigger story.
The estimate of 10 gigawatts computing power corresponding to $300 billion to $500 billion annual revenue is based on two premises: computing power can be built on time, and market demand can keep up. AI computing demand is indeed exploding, but marginal growth is already slowing. Storage sector earnings guidance has started to be cautious [based on context]. If demand slackens, this calculation method must be revised.
SpaceX's current situation is clear—traditional businesses are profitable but with limited growth, AI business is burning cash but has a compelling story. The market is willing to buy into this story, but the premise is Musk must deliver on time. AI revenue surpassing other businesses in September can be seen as a signal. If achieved, the story can continue. If not, this rebound might just be another temporary peak.
How to view this position?
The post-unlock rebound shows short-seller logic isn't so straightforward, but the speed of AI cash burn won't disappear out of thin air. When you don't understand, control your position size; don't get carried away just because of one sentence from Musk. Wait for September AI revenue data, wait for substantial progress on 10 gigawatts computing power, then talk about faith.
What do you all think about how much of Musk's pie this time can be realized? Let's discuss in the comments. $SPCX $BTC $SNDK #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
July CPI landed steadily! The probability of a rate hike in September dropped to 40%. Is this wave of “false negative” for BTC turning into a real boost?
Last night, the US July CPI was released:
• Overall CPI year-over-year 3.4% (previous 3.5%)
• Core CPI year-over-year 2.5% (previous 2.6%, matching the lowest level since 2021)
• Month-over-month overall +0.1%, core +0.2%, all within expectations
Once the data came out, CME FedWatch slashed the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September from around 50% directly down to 39%–43%, while the probability of no change rose above 57%. US stock futures jumped, the dollar dipped slightly, gold surged to a ten-week high, and short-term US Treasury yields first dropped then rebounded — the market summed it up in one sentence: “No rush to hike rates, but it’s not time to celebrate rate cuts yet.”
How to translate this into crypto terms?
• Tight credit expectations recede → pressure on risk-free rates easing temporarily → BTC/ETH’s “macro suppression” loosens a notch
• But inflation is still stuck at 3.4% (far from the 2% target) → not a turning point for easing, just a shift from “must hike” to “may not hike”
• The real decider for September is actually August’s nonfarm payrolls + August CPI; this is just a mid-game point, not the final whistle
So don’t be fooled by people in the group already shouting “Peaceful bull market 2.0” or “Rate hikes are over, the bull market is here” — this data doesn’t support a reversal, what it supports is: bulls daring to buy in the choppy market, bears reluctant to chase, and altcoin liquidity taking a small hit first.
My personal judgment:
• BTC short-term looks to hold near previous highs; macro conditions provide a “no valuation kill” environment, not a “massive liquidity injection” environment
• ETH and established L1s depend on risk appetite recovery; Meme coins depend on the speed of capital rotation
• To truly confirm easing expectations, core PCE must also soften + employment weaken again; a single month’s CPI is not enough to seal the deal
Crypto trading has never been about reality, but about expectation gaps. The value of last night’s CPI is that it shattered the consensus of “definite rate hike in September,” allowing the market to breathe from the macro tightening spell. #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% 马斯克最近在SpaceX全员会上说了一句很夸张的话： 五年以后，AI可能贡献SpaceX 99%的价值。 如果只把这句话理解成“马斯克又在给AI讲故事”，其实会错过它背后一个非常重要的资产定价变化。 因为SpaceX正在发生的，不是给火箭公司增加一条AI业务，而是在试图把火箭运力、卫星通信、能源、GPU、数据中心和AI模型压缩进同一张基础设施网络。 这也是为什么我认为，这件事最后影响的绝不只是 $SPCX。 它可能重新影响整个 $美股 AI产业链，以及 $BTC、$ETH、$TAO、$AKT，甚至一批原本被市场当作“矿股”的上市公司。 真正的交易主线，不是“AI又火了”。 而是： 算力正在从一个软件问题，变成能源、芯片、网络和资本开支共同决定的基础设施问题。 SpaceX最大的变化，是估值锚正在从Starlink转向AI 过去买SpaceX，市场主要看三件事情。 Falcon和Starship代表运力。 Starlink代表现金流。 火星代表远期Optionality。 但现在又多了一条，而且很可能成为最重要的一条——AI。 马斯克在8月的全员63,500 has been flat for six days, where will the second half of August go? BTC is reported near $63,500, barely moving in the past week. The range of 63,000-64,000 has been grinding for a full six days. The first half of August saw the market deliver a "narrow range oscillation" report card. How the second half will go requires breaking down a few things. 1. CPI data has been released, but the market did not react Yesterday, the US July CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, fully in line with expectations. The Nasdaq rose 0.54% in response, but BTC only rebounded about 0.3% after the data release before falling back. The market has already priced in cooling inflation; since CPI did not exceed expectations, it does not constitute a new buying catalyst. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has risen from 30% a month ago to about 60%. The good news is that rate hike expectations are heating up but within limited scope; the bad news is that rate cut expectations remain out of reach. Crypto assets are still in a "no new positive news" vacuum period. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan strategists recently made a rare joint statement: the Federal Reserve is very likely to hold steady for the rest of the year, and rate hikes are not the baseline scenario. Goldman Sachs judges that signs of inflation spreading to broader areas are limited, while JPMorgan believes wages have not formed a sustained driving force for price increases. The judgments of these two major institutions provide the market with a baseline reference that "rate hikes will not get out of control." 2. The CLARITY Act delayed until September, regulatory catalysts absent The US Senate failed to push the CLARITY Act vote before the August recess, postponing the vote to September. This means that throughout August, crypto-related... #芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22%
Let's talk about the recent split situation in the treasury of listed companies. After reading the news, I still feel quite touched.
Empery Digital recently sold nearly half of its BTC reserves, selling a total of 1,400 BTC since May at an average price of about $62,200, raising over 80 million USD. The funds were used to invest in AI data centers, repay debts, and cover legal expenses. Interestingly, not long ago, this company was aggressively increasing its BTC holdings, showing a significant contrast in operations.
Now the entire treasury camp is clearly divided into three attitudes.
One group chooses to sell BTC and pivot to the AI sector;
Tether, for example, which used to buy BTC with 15% of its quarterly profits, seems to have paused this move in Q2, opting to wait and see;
And Boya Interactive still insists on buying more on dips, continuing to accumulate coins. Even Strategy, which has always been firmly holding, has included selling coins in its policy plan.
There is no unified standard answer; each company has made different choices based on their own cash flow and plans.
On one side, the AI story is very attractive; on the other, there is the long-term narrative of BTC. Who will come out on top? Let's just watch the show slowly.#芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22%
Recently, the South Korean capital market has experienced a highly explosive rebound, with the KOSPI index's intraday maximum gain surpassing 4%. Since the low point on July 30, the cumulative rise has exceeded 22%, officially entering a technical bull market range.
The core driver of this rally is the memory chip giants represented by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Intraday, Samsung Electronics' gains once exceeded 5%, SK Hynix surged over 7%, and the rapid upward wave directly triggered the program trading buy order suspension mechanism, reflecting the strong buying sentiment. The underlying logic supporting the sector's strength is clear: global AI capital expenditure remains high, the prosperity of the memory chip and optical communication industry chains continues to warm up, and industry fundamentals are expected to improve continuously.
In addition, a major rumor continues to stir the market: Temasek is evaluating a direct equity investment in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Although the investment scale and timing remain unclear, the expectation of this potential long-term capital further amplifies market optimism.
Looking back, the Korean stock market previously suffered a sharp sell-off caused by concentrated deleveraging of leveraged funds, leaving many investors wary of the intense volatility. Because of this, market divergence is becoming more apparent: some funds believe this rally is a reasonable valuation recovery driven by the memory cycle revival combined with foreign capital inflows, providing a foundation for continuation; others remain cautious, noting the high concentration of Korean stock market targets and the index's strong linkage to a few chip leaders, warning that this surge might just be a rapid rebound after a sharp drop, with subsequent downside risks not to be ignored.
From a global interconnected market perspective, the external environment also provides emotional support. U.S. CPI data met market expectations, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.24% overnight, Micron also attracted capital favor, and the overseas semiconductor sector's recovery offers a favorable external environment for Korean memory companies.
For traders, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have become the most important barometers for observing this rally. While short-term sentiment is hot, it is necessary to distinguish between expectations and reality: the Temasek investment news has not yet materialized, the pace of memory chip price recovery, global monetary policy changes, and foreign capital flow directions are all core variables determining whether this rebound can sustain. In a highly volatile market, rationality is needed amid the frenzy, and caution is advised against rapid corrections caused by emotional downturns.CPI at 3.4% fully meets expectations, so why did $BTC only rise 0.3% before falling back?
Last night, were you watching the CPI data with your heart racing?
US July CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, core CPI 2.5%, both precisely hitting expectations.
Inflation is cooling. Probability of a rate hike in September drops. Negative factors disappear.
You thought: BTC is about to take off, right?
So what happened?
$BTC rebounded from $63,200 to $64,400, up 1.9%—then reversed sharply down, crashing back near $63,500.
The full-day gain? 0.3%.
The Nasdaq rose 0.54%, gold had a V-shaped reversal, up over 1%.
Bitcoin just lay flat like nothing happened.
Are you confused?
Where’s the problem?
"Meeting expectations" is the biggest problem itself.
The market never pays for what’s "expected."
A month ago, the probability of a September rate hike was 30%. Everyone was anxious, panicked, and sleepless.
After yesterday’s CPI release, CME data showed the probability of holding rates steady in September rose to 59.9%.
Rate hike probability dropped from 50% to 40%, and expectations for a rate cut emerged—sounds great, right?
But the problem is: the market had already priced in "inflation cooling" well before the CPI release.
Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $854 million, the strongest since May.
Smart money was already in.
When the data actually came out, everyone realized—"Oh, just as expected"—and then? Nothing.
The buying stopped. Because those who needed to buy, already did last week.
Negative factors disappearing doesn’t equal positive factors appearing.
The market doesn’t want "no rate hike." The market wants "certainty of rate cuts."
CPI didn’t provide that. So BTC didn’t move.
Digging deeper: CPI at 3.4% is still 1.4 percentage points away from the Fed’s 2% target.
Inflation is cooling, but far from "victory."
Oil prices are still hovering near $100. Housing costs rose 0.1% in July, accounting for two-thirds of the overall increase.
The Fed has no reason to cut rates. None at all.
So look at CME data—the probability of holding rates steady in September is 59.9%, rate hike probability 40.1%.
No rate hike, but no rate cut either. This is the so-called "higher for longer."
For BTC, this is the most frustrating scenario.
Rate cuts are the bull market engine. No rate hike just means "not dead," not "alive."
Speaking of which, I want to talk about another ongoing event—the mining companies are collectively fleeing Bitcoin.
You might not have noticed: Core Scientific’s AI data center hosting revenue soared from $8.6 million a year ago to $77.5 million, a year-over-year increase of over 9 times, already surpassing Bitcoin mining to become the company’s largest business line.#特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大，BTC持仓下降
I think this earnings report from Trump Media clearly exposes the other side of "public companies hoarding BTC."
In Q2, the company posted a net loss of $238.1 million, with unrealized losses of about $190.4 million from digital assets, related staked assets, and securities. In other words, a large part of the loss is not actual operating cash loss but directly reflected in the financial statements due to the price drop of assets like BTC. (Reuters)
This is also one of the biggest differences between corporate BTC holding and individual long-term holding:
Companies not only have to judge whether BTC will rise in the long term but also manage cash flow, financial statement volatility, and shareholder pressure.
So I actually think it’s very normal for corporate treasuries to shift from "buy and hold" to dynamic management. When BTC rises, it can increase asset flexibility, but in a bear market, if the position is too heavy, company profits and stock prices will be hostage to BTC.
Previously, the market liked to simply interpret companies buying BTC as a positive signal, but going forward, I will pay more attention to three things: purchase cost, BTC’s proportion of total assets, and whether the company itself has stable cash flow.
A truly healthy BTC corporate treasury should not rely on BTC price increases to survive.
If more and more companies start actively adjusting their positions, I don’t see this as bearish on BTC; rather, it indicates that corporate BTC holding is moving from "storytelling" to real balance sheet management.
Long-term holding is a strategy, but surviving the full cycle is a capability. Breaking news! The BTC bottom is near, and Ahao directly says: 54000 is the bottom of this bear market!
I know everyone has been anxious lately. BTC fell below 60,000, those holding coins can't sleep, and those without are unsure whether to buy in. Today, Ahao puts it plainly—around $54,000 is the bottom area of this bear market.
This is not a guess; four dimensions all point to the same number.
---
1. Technical charts are not mysticism; two independent signals both calculate 54,000
On the candlestick chart, there are two bearish patterns: a 4-hour rounded top and a daily bear flag. These two patterns are like two unrelated fortune tellers, each calculating independently, and the results astonishingly agree—the downside target is around 54,000.
This is no coincidence; the market structure is speaking. When BTC broke below 60,000, both signals triggered simultaneously, indicating that bearish forces were indeed releasing pressure. But after the release? Historical patterns tell us that when the monthly MACD falls to the zero line, it is often the bottom area. In the past decade, BTC's major bear market bottoms have all appeared near this level.
---
2. On-chain data calculates the real cost in cold hard cash
What is on-chain data? It looks at everyone's real buying and selling costs—not drawing lines, but doing the math.
· First calculation: The average buy-in cost of all bitcoins is now between 53,000 and 54,000. When the price falls to this level, most people start losing money—retail investors panic and want to sell, big players want to accumulate, and after intense competition, the bottom often forms here.
· Second calculation: The cost for miners to mine one bitcoin is about 55,000–56,000. Miners are the least willing to see prices fall below cost; once near this line, hash power adjusts and selling pressure decreases.
· Third calculation: Over the past decade, bear market bottoms have all appeared between 0.8 and 1.0 times the MVRV indicator, and the 1.0 baseline corresponds exactly to 54,000.
These three cost lines converge near 54,000. This is no coincidence; it is the market's real bottom line in cold hard cash.
---
3. Institutional whales are also watching 54,000
Don't think institutions are mysterious; their calculations are similar to ours. Galaxy Digital estimates 51,000–54,000, Fidelity sees 60,000–75,000, Bernstein around 60,000. See, 54,000 is the common bottom line among all these forecasts.
In other words, the world's smart money is focused on this level. Of course, some are more pessimistic, saying above 40,000, but that would require a financial crisis like 2008, which currently has a very low probability.
---
4. The macro environment is shifting; the hardest times are almost over
The Federal Reserve's rate hikes have pressured BTC for over a year, but now rate hikes are nearing an end. The market generally believes there will be no more hikes in September. Once rate hikes officially stop, the heavy burden on BTC will be lifted. The research head at Grayscale also publicly said that as long as rate hikes stop and the economy stabilizes, the bear market is likely over.
Think about it: over the past year, due to rate hikes, funds have continuously flowed out of risk assets, with BTC hit first. Now this logic is reversing, and the soil for the bottom is forming.
---
Finally, Ahao says something heartfelt
I know this period has been tough for everyone—paper losses, repeatedly buying the dip and getting stuck, hesitating to act—it's hard.
But you need to see one fact clearly: this round BTC has only dropped 50% from its high, whereas previous bear markets fell 75%–85%. Why less this time? Because there are ETFs, institutions, and big companies supporting underneath. The bottom is firmer than before.
So Ahao gives you a heads-up: if BTC really reaches 54,000, it's not time to panic and run, but time to bend down and pick up chips.
Others fear, I am greedy—heard this a thousand times, but few can truly do it. Hope you are one of them.
Ahao is done talking. Stay steady, we can win.
---
A reminder: investing carries risks. What I say is just my personal opinion, not trading advice. Make your own decisions and take responsibility.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22%
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Don't rush to see CPI as a positive: The door to a September rate hike is just not fully closed
After the CPI release, many people's first reaction was: inflation didn't explode, the September rate hike is likely off, and the crypto market should rebound.
I actually think it's too early to celebrate now.
It's certainly good that the data didn't add fuel to inflation.
But core inflation is still above target, and the Federal Reserve can't lock in all future options just because of a "meet expectations" data point.
What's more critical is the market.
$BTC has now returned to around 63,400, with a 24-hour high of 64,496 and a low of 63,309.
After the CPI release, 64,500 didn't hold.
This shows the market is willing to temporarily not fear rate hikes, but is not yet willing to pay in advance for "rate cuts and liquidity return."
So the current logic is not:
CPI didn't explode → directly bullish.
But rather:
CPI didn't explode → the worst-case scenario is delayed, next we continue to watch core inflation, employment, and subsequent policy pricing.
I will watch two levels:
Only if 64,500 is firmly reclaimed does it indicate the market starts to accept this data.
If 63,300 is broken again, it means even this CPI buffer can't support the market.
Don't misread "not worse" as "already better."
What the market fears now is not CPI.
It's that even after CPI passes, the buying power still refuses to return.
$BTC $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 $XAU Despite the US July CPI growth slowing to 3.4% and the market's expectations for a rate hike in September cooling down, Bitcoin did not rise as a result. The core reasons are:
· Positive factors already priced in: The market had previously partially priced in the expectation of CPI slowing, so the "as expected" result lacked additional surprise.
· Sentiment remains cautious: The Fear and Greed Index shows the market is in the "fear" zone (27-36 points), with funds waiting for clearer signals. $BTC $ETH Today’s Quick News:
U.S. core CPI met expectations, supporting the Fed to stay put; Singapore’s Temasek targets a storage giant in South Korea; DeepSeek and Grok spark a price war
💥 Key Catalysts:
U.S. July CPI met expectations, showing that the drag from energy is narrowing, goods have rebounded, and housing remains soft—indicating no widespread signs of a renewed acceleration. Temasek plans its first direct investment into South Korea’s stock market, targeting Samsung and SK hynix. DeepSeek and Grok both launched flagship models, driving model integration and token adoption by cutting prices.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Expected CPI solidifies the Fed’s wait-and-see: Calm inflation gives the Fed room to hold steady, even though a credibility gap keeps U.S. Treasury yields elevated. What to watch: U.S.-Iran talks, oil prices, and Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August.2️⃣ Sovereign capital backs storage recovery: Temasek’s move into Samsung and SK hynix confirms that the storage sector has bottomed out, helping new-cloud and South Korean storage stocks rebound.
3️⃣ Token price war speeds up adoption: Although the cloud ROI debate is still ongoing, price competition is accelerating model penetration. Sentiment is stabilizing, but volatility remains high.
$SKHYNIX $SAMSUNG $TSM $OKB 在3月5日触及124美元后一路回落，最低跌至65.76美元。时隔五个月，它再次突破100美元关口，现报103.50美元，24小时涨幅8.53%。 从124到65，再到103——这条价格曲线，浓缩了OKB叙事从狂热到冷却再到重燃的全过程。 3月5日的124美元：ICE入股点燃的“消息牛” 3月5日，纽约证券交易所母公司洲际交易所（ICE）宣布以250亿美元估值入股OKX少数股权。消息一出，OKB从约77美元急速拉升，盘中触及124美元高位，24小时振幅超过50%。 那一天的逻辑很清晰： ICE是华尔街的象征，其入股被视为对OKX的顶级信用背书 OKB作为平台代币，直接受益于市场对OKX估值的重估 叠加此前2025年8月销毁后2100万枚的“通缩叙事”，情绪共振推至高潮 124到65：利好出尽，一地鸡毛 但ICE入股的催化剂是一次性消息，不是持续的基本面改善。 利好兑现后，获利盘蜂拥而出。OKB从124美元高位迅速回落，随后一路下行，最低触及65.76美元。 五个月，腰斩过半。 这段下跌的核心原因是：ICE入股改变了市场对OKX的估值，但没有改变OKB的供需结构。 2100万枚的【Blockchain Asset Morning Report｜August 13】
BTC $64,050｜ETH $1,905
🔥 Market Today
BTC is back near 64,000.
It just dropped below yesterday, but pulled back today, indicating neither bulls nor bears want to let go of this level.
However, one data point looks unfavorable:
On August 12, BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $46.79 million, marking two consecutive days of capital outflow.
I won’t chase longs until 65,000 is reclaimed.
ETH is actually a bit interesting, performing slightly stronger than BTC today.
If ETH/BTC continues to strengthen, I’ll be more inclined to favor ETH than now.
😈 Altcoins
The top 50 by market cap still show localized trends today.
Leading gainers include PUMP, Canton, CRV, but overall profit-taking remains moderate.
There’s no widespread sell-off on the downside either.
⸻
📰 Highlights Today
① US July CPI released
US July CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, in line with expectations.
The market hasn’t seen major volatility for now; BTC remains near $64,000.
② SEC to discuss first major Crypto rule tomorrow
SEC has scheduled a public meeting on August 14 to discuss new crypto regulatory rules, worth watching.
US crypto regulation is entering the real "rule-making" phase.
③ Securitize’s first earnings report after listing
This BlackRock-affiliated RWA company reported Q2 revenue of $14.4 million, down 5% year-over-year, with net loss widening to $21.7 million.
Looks like the RWA story is big, but business isn’t that easy.
④ BTC ETF net outflows for two consecutive days
After a strong inflow round earlier, funds are now diverging again.
So don’t just look at "weekly net inflows,"
whether short-term funds keep buying is the key to whether prices can continue rising.
⸻
🧠 My View
Still cautious today.
If BTC can’t hold 65,000, I won’t chase.
Instead, I’ll focus on ETH.
Because if the next rally really comes,
I tend to think:
BTC stabilizes first, ETH moves first, and altcoins profit last.
Be patient. DYOR 🚨The Fed rate hike expectations have completely faded!!!
In just one month, market expectations have completely reversed—from worrying about whether to continue raising rates in September to betting on the next easing cycle.
Data forces the shift: July CPI year-on-year at 3.4%, core CPI at 2.5%, combined with weakening employment data, the probability of the Fed holding steady in September has risen to about 64%.
Core capital logic: The market does not trade on "rate cuts not happening when rates fall," but races ahead on "whether future liquidity will ease."
Liquidity transmission chain
Fed rate hike expectations fade
👇
Dollar under pressure + U.S. Treasury yields fall
👇
Risk appetite rises (BTC, U.S. growth stocks, and gold see capital inflows)
Key logic for BTC
BTC has never feared "high interest rates," but rather the expectation of "tighter conditions that are more expensive and longer lasting." Now that this constraint is loosening, valuation pressure is greatly relieved.
Three monitoring indicators going forward
Dollar Index
U.S. Treasury yields
BTC capital flows
If all three turn simultaneously, it not only means "pause in rate hikes in September," but also signals that big money has started to race ahead for the next easing cycle.
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ $BTC $ETH $SOL #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
After watching Elon Musk's speech at the SpaceX all-hands meeting, honestly, I was a bit shocked.
In most people's fixed impression, SpaceX is rockets, Starlink, Starship—a hardcore aerospace company. But Musk directly threw out a very disruptive judgment: in five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX's company value.
According to his plan, AI revenue will surpass all other businesses by this September; the goal is to reach 10 gigawatts of computing power by the end of next year, with an expected annual revenue of $300–500 billion. He also proposed the "ground training, space inference" approach, aiming to package Starship's transport capacity, Starlink network, and AI computing power into a complete infrastructure.
This is no longer just aerospace; it binds space internet and large model computing power together, opening up a whole new realm of imagination.
However, after calming down and thinking it over, all of this belongs to management's predictions, with a significant element of wishful thinking. The market's focus is also shifting: no longer just watching rocket launch frequency or Starlink's cash flow, but starting to question a realistic issue—can the AI business really support the current valuation? Massive capital spending to expand computing power, huge capital expenditures, and various risks in implementation—has the current price already priced in all the positives in advance?
The capital market's reaction is also interesting; related tokens rose in the short term, but the underlying asset's market fluctuated wildly, with performance expectations maxed out, yet the market repeatedly tugged back and forth, and momentum began to weaken after the rebound.
The vision is grand, but a grand goal does not equal realization. The story is certainly attractive, but risks cannot be ignored. While watching the show, we must distinguish between vision and reality. Yesterday, $APR surged significantly. Within a single day, it had already doubled, and now it seemed like it was about to become a demon. For these monster coins, my strategy has always been to go short but not short and to buy long on dips. However, yesterday I went against my strategy and shorted this coin, and now I'm stuck in it. It's okay, I think it will pull back to the position where I opened my position, and I still have a chance to break even. If $APR keeps doubling at my opening position, I might be about to be liquidated. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract open interest dropped sharply this morning, while the long-short ratio of the contract is rising. If we look at the candlestick chart at that time, we'll find that a needle was inserted back then. This indicates that many major shorts have already been exposed at that level. After inserting the needle, the price of $APR continued to rise, with some short positions exploding. However, from the contract data trends, it can be seen that both the quantity and quality of exposed short positions are far less than those during the insertion. This shows that at this level, the profit from a short break is already very small. Let's take a look at the contract data for a longer period. It can be seen that its contract open interest is gradually increasing, while the long-short ratio first falls and then rises. This indicates that during the rise, not only have many bears accumulated, but a considerable portion of the bulls have also accumulated. These bulls will create some resistance to the rise, I thinkLet's start with the conclusion. If you still think of $BICO as an old project for "account abstraction and gas-free users," it's easy to miss the real changes that have happened over the past year. Biconomy is attempting to migrate from the Account Abstraction infrastructure to a higher-level Universal Execution Layer—the Universal On-Chain Execution Layer. Accounts, Gas, cross-chain, DEX routing, Intent, and AI Agent execution—these previously relatively fragmented modules are being repackaged into a unified execution infrastructure. If this is done, the valuation logic of $BICO will change. But I want to put another point first: Biconomy's biggest problem now is no longer whether the product has value, but how much of that value can actually be passed on to $BICO. This determines whether it is just a small-cap old coin easily driven by themes, or an asset with a chance to re-enter the infrastructure valuation system. Why has the market suddenly regained its $BICO recently? As of August 13, $BICO price was around $0.032, with intraday volatility still very volatile. In early August, $BICO even saw a rapid single-day surge of over 70% due to new perpetual contract market entries, but then clearly pulled back. This price action is important. What it tells us is not that "fundamentals suddenly improved by 70%", but ratherNebius surges today by +35% and has already gained +77% in just two weeks.
▌Three factors driving the rise:
➫ Leopold Aschenbrenner, who made $20 billion in one year, cut in at the lowest point—$NBIS was one of his largest holdings.
➫ Nebius just reported revenue of $582.3 million. Riding the explosive growth of its AI cloud business, its revenue surged by 514%, and—backed by an aggressive expansion fueled by more than $40 billion in outstanding orders—it has moved into the ranks of the world’s leading AI compute service providers.
➫ Michael Burry has just disclosed that he increased his short position in Nebius
$NBIS CPI数据一出，9月加息概率从55%直接砸到40%，美股期货全线飘红——我盯着屏幕笑了半天，确认了一件事：市场这头"大猪"终于开始踩踏板了，而你要做的，就是当那头在旁边等着吃的小猪。 📊 先说CPI：数据稳了，加息悬了 8月12日，美国劳工统计局公布了7月CPI数据： · 整体CPI环比+0.1%，6月可是-0.4%（六年来首次月度下降）；同比+3.4%，低于6月的3.5% · 核心CPI（剔除食品能源）环比+0.2%，同比+2.5%，追平2021年3月以来最低增速 所有数据与经济学家预期完全一致。 数据一出，CME FedWatch的9月加息概率直接从55%砸到40.1%，维持利率不变的概率飙到59.9%。2年期美债收益率应声下跌。 一句话：通胀在降温，美联储9月大概率不动了。 🐷 智猪模型：为什么散户最好的策略是"等" 智猪博弈是博弈论里最经典的案例之一： 一个猪圈里有一头大猪和一头小猪，食槽一头有个踏板，踩一下就有10份食物掉下来。但踩踏板要付出2份食物的成本。 · 如果大猪踩：大猪吃到6份，小猪吃到4份（大猪净赚4，小猪净赚4） · 如果小猪踩：小猪跑回来时食物已被大猪吃完