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If you were given $4.8 billion to buy Bitcoin—would you enter the market now or wait a bit longer? This is not hypothetical. This is Strategy's real situation right now. As of August 16, Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, with a total position cost of $63.36 billion and an average price of $75,385. At the same time, the company has $4.8 billion in cash reserves. $4.8 billion just sitting on the books, untouched. Strategy has not bought any Bitcoin for eight consecutive weeks. Last week, the company raised $333.7 million by selling 3.46 million shares of MSTR stock. How was this money spent? $149.1 million to replenish USD reserves $132.2 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares $52.4 million to pay STRC dividends Not a single cent was used to buy BTC. This is completely different from Saylor's previous style of "raising funds and immediately increasing positions." The market is starting to panic: Is Strategy's Bitcoin buying spree over? Don't rush. Saylor himself gave us three clues about when the $4.8 billion will be deployed. Clue one: STRC must first return to $100. STRC is the preferred stock issued by Strategy, with a par value of $100 and an annual dividend yield currently around 12%. But this stock once dropped from $100 to between $73 and $95 this year. Saylor's goal is clear: to bring STRC back near its $100 par value. He said very plainly in the August 17 investor Q&A: "The most important thing right now is to stabilize the credit business; equity matters can wait." In plain language: patch the hole in the preferred shares first, buying Bitcoin comes later. Part of the $4.8 billion cash has already been used to repurchase STRC. Until STRC stabilizes around $99-$100, this money will not be used to buy Bitcoin. Clue two: MSTR must be deeply discounted before considering buybacks—and the same applies to buying Bitcoin. Saylor said that if MSTR shows a significant discount relative to net asset value, the company might consider repurchasing common stock. The same logic applies to Bitcoin: only when the price is "cheap enough" will he act. The question is—what price does Saylor consider "cheap enough"? He didn't say. But we can calculate: his average position cost is $75,385. BTC is currently around $64,000. That's about 15% below cost. Isn't that "cheap enough"? Apparently, in Saylor's view—it is not. Clue three: credit business takes priority; lending and loans come before direct Bitcoin purchases. Strategy is currently aggressively developing its "digital credit" business. Simply put: lending money to others to earn interest, rather than buying Bitcoin directly. Saylor's exact words: Bitcoin is "digital capital," STRC is "digital credit"—one appreciates in value, the other generates interest. What does this mean? The $4.8 billion won't necessarily be fully invested in BTC. Part of it may be used for lending, market making, providing liquidity—to earn stable interest spreads rather than betting on BTC price movements. So, the $4.8 billion is not bearish—it is waiting for a better price and a better window. And the macro window may be opening. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius clearly stated on August 16 that the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September is "very low." The reason is simple: July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and CPI and PPI both cooled down. CME data shows the market pricing in a 65%-69% chance that the Fed will hold steady in September. Although the probability of a rate hike before year-end remains above 90%—the September meeting likely won't see action. For risk assets, unchanged rates = the faucet isn't being tightened. BTC just rebounded to $64,360. If the Fed really holds steady or even shifts to easing—$4.8 billion could be the "igniter." The window is approaching. Just no one knows the exact day. Strategy is not done buying—it is using $4.8 billion to wait for you to sell at a loss. Saylor is waiting for STRC to return to $100. Waiting for MSTR to be deeply discounted. Waiting for clearer signals from the Fed. He is waiting for a price lower than now. $BTC $MSTR $STRC #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低