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$BTC has started to consolidate after recently surging to a high. But I think what's more worth watching than the price is the capital flow. Behind this round of rally, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has shown a clear net inflow again, indicating that this time it's not just the futures market squeezing shorts, but spot funds are also coming in. BTC rising a large segment and still maintaining at a high level is itself a relatively strong performance. I actually don't want it to keep skyrocketing every$BTC suddenly accelerated after months of silence, with a cumulative increase of 23% over 5 days, marking the strongest short-term rebound since the 2025 peak pullback. This rally is not purely driven by internal sentiment within the crypto market but is the result of a combination of macro environment, policy expectations, and short-covering.
Firstly, after the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, Treasury yields fell, easing pressure on risk assets; meanwhile, the weakening dollar and rising gold prices have also strengthened market attention on Bitcoin as an alternative asset.
On the policy front, Trump has once again pushed the CLARITY Act, and the market is beginning to focus on subsequent regulatory legislative progress. If the related bill makes breakthroughs, it could further improve institutional capital inflow expectations into the crypto market.
Additionally, after Bitcoin broke through its long-term consolidation range, a large number of short positions were forced to close, creating a "rise—liquidation—continued rise" short squeeze effect. However, this type of capital is unlikely to support the market for the long term.
Going forward, ETF capital flows will be a key observation indicator. Only if institutions continue net inflows can it prove that this rally is not just a short-term short squeeze but a genuine return of market funds. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 $ETH $XPEV Group (XPEV)$ This Q2 financial report cannot be judged solely by revenue rebound quarter-on-quarter and the comprehensive gross margin reaching 20%. What's even more noteworthy is: the improvement in gross margin mainly comes from services and other businesses, with the vehicle gross margin still stuck at 12.1%; Deliveries were almost flat year-on-year, and losses have not yet returned to the same period last year. Let's look at the core data: Q2 total revenue was 19.744 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year and 51.5% quarter-on-quarter; Among them, automobile sales revenue was 17.046 billion yuan, up 1.0% year-on-year, and service and other revenue was 2.697 billion yuan, up 93.9% year-on-year. Quarterly deliveries were 103,295 units, up only 0.1% year-on-year. This means revenue growth is not mainly driven by year-on-year delivery volume expansion, but rather by growth in services and other businesses, as well as a rebound in product and delivery pace during the quarter. Total gross margin improved, but vehicle gross margin did not recover in sync This quarter's consolidated gross margin was 20.7%, higher than last year's 17.3% and slightly higher than last quarter's 20.6%; However, the gross margin for vehicles was 12.1%, unchanged from the previous quarter and lower than 14.3% in the same period last year. The company explained that the year-on-year changes in vehicle gross margin were mainly influenced by product upgrades. On the other hand, the gross margin for services and other businesses reached 75.1%, higher than 53.6% in the same period last year and 66.5% in the previous quarter. Therefore, this rise in gross margin is a positive signal, but it does not directly mean that vehicle profitability has been restored; the latter still depends on the unit economy after large-scale delivery of new modelsCryptoQuant data reported that the recent breakeven point for new funds entering the market is around $73,000, with the short-term holders' cost basis at approximately $68,700.
This does not mean the price will necessarily find support there. Its significance lies in the fact that if the market pulls back, these ranges will test the patience of recent buyers. Holding the price is structural; continuous failure to hold indicates holding pressure.
$BTC #BTC #crypto Damn! $TRUMP, this crappy coin crashed again.
This morning I saw it dropped to 2.5, down four points straight away. A couple of days ago, someone was shouting everywhere that the president was about to issue a new coin, which pushed the price up to 3.6, but it was all nonsense, and now it’s crashed back to the original point.
Anyone with eyes knows it was their own people: yesterday, several related wallets transferred over 3.8 million coins to OKX, and this morning they sold 1.1 million coins at an average of 2.68 each, cashing out nearly three million dollars in stablecoins.
The total amount dumped on the market has already exceeded ten million dollars.
Trump’s son even came out seriously to clarify: the so-called new coin news is completely fake, don’t believe those scam messages.
Their tactic is: rumors push the price up, insiders sell off, and the price falls back down.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 As of August 21, the cumulative net outflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in 2026 remains about $2.91 billion; however, August alone has seen a net inflow of approximately $2.38 billion, making it the strongest month so far this year.
This contrast provides more insight than just looking at the $1.92 billion figure. It indicates that the sentiment of funds is shifting, but it has not yet fully offset the previous scale of withdrawals. It is still too early to describe this "marginal improvement" as a "complete reversal."
$BTC #BTC #cryptoThere are three major events tomorrow, boldly predicting if $BTC can still surge?
BTC is still hovering around 78,000, dropping from 79,500 to 75,600 over the weekend, then pulling back up.
Nvidia's earnings report, PCE data release, and Jackson Hole are coming up—three big events at once. The market likely won't pass through smoothly.
The Asian session looks weak today as well, with Korean and Hong Kong stocks dragged down by the AI sector. Samsung and Alibaba plunged, essentially signaling that AI is entering the cost calculation phase.
The current issue for BTC is strong bulls, but the 78,000–80,000 range has concentrated selling pressure and liquidity.
On one side, spot BTC ETFs continue to see inflows; on the other, profit-taking is moving to exchanges, with some already cashing out.
So I believe: 80,000 is not something that can be broken through casually.
If Nvidia beats expectations and PCE is moderate, risk appetite will continue to improve, and BTC could directly open up the 80,000 level.
If the data doesn't cooperate, a pullback is completely normal.
Personally, I will watch the 75,000–73,000 pullback opportunity and the 80,000 core resistance.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Last week saw a significant inflow of ETF funds, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the main portion. It is a fact that institutional demand has increased, and it is also a fact that the demand is concentrated.
These two aspects must be considered simultaneously. Concentrated buying pressure is very powerful when moving upward, but it also means the market is more sensitive to a few channels. ETF inflows are not a contract for "continuing to rise the next day"; they are just one piece of evidence within the buyer structure.
$BTC #BTC #crypto In the week ending August 21, the net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was about $1.92 billion, marking the strongest week since October 2025.
A single week's data can ignite sentiment but cannot confirm a trend on its own. What truly matters to continue tracking is whether the inflows can persist across weeks and whether the funds remain highly concentrated in a few products. A single record indicates demand has returned; consecutive records may indicate a change in demand structure.
$BTC #BTC #crypto Brent crude oil fell 1.87% intraday, trading near $92.6 per barrel, partially giving back the more than 5% gains accumulated last week. This round of correction is driven by four main factors:
First, the oil price had been continuously rising earlier, prompting profit-taking by bullish funds; second, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering, marginally easing market concerns over crude supply disruptions; third, the market is awaiting the U.S. to implement a new round of sanctions against Iran, and before these are concretely enacted, funds generally choose to reduce risk positions; fourth, the rapid rise in oil prices has pushed up inflationary pressures, causing the market to worry that high energy prices will suppress global consumer demand.
Overall, this adjustment is a high-level phase consolidation rather than an end to the upward trend. As long as core conflicts such as Middle East geopolitical tensions, transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions to Iranian crude exports do not see substantial improvement, Brent crude oil will continue to maintain a wide range of high-level volatility. $BTC $ETH $MU #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 On August 18, the storage sector experienced a violent sell-off, with SNDK and MU both plunging, leading many to believe the market cooled off. However, the capital data tells a different story: over the past month, DRAM still saw a net inflow of $2.08 billion. After the sharp drop, leveraged long products attracted capital, short products saw capital outflows, indicating funds were bottom-fishing storage during the big dip. The storage and crypto markets share the same pool of risk hot money; t💧 THE TREASURY JUST BECAME A CRYPTO CATALYST
The U.S. Treasury's expanded long-term bond buybacks helped push yields lower and improve liquidity expectations.
Bitcoin and gold responded strongly.
This is bigger than a BTC chart pattern: it connects government debt markets, yields, the dollar and crypto liquidity.
If financial conditions continue easing, risk assets could have another tailwind.
#Treasury #Liquidity #BTC #Macro
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap Trump announced the "most devastating economic action in history" against Iran. Last week, Bitcoin surged for five consecutive bullish candles, rising from $62,000 to $79,000, an increase of over 23% in one week. Spot gold climbed above $4600, hitting a three-month high. Then what? On Saturday, there was a flash crash, with 179,200 people liquidated and $882 million wiped out. Bulls accounted for 80%. Why? The aftershocks of the non-farm payrolls have not subsided, and geopolitical conflicts continue. U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 23,000 in July, with May and June data revised down by a total of 103,000. Employment is cooling down. But what about inflation? July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, with the energy index soaring 14.7%. Weak employment + high inflation = the Fed's biggest headache. The July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged with a 9:3 vote, with three members wanting a rate hike. The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 70% to 40%, but the shadow of "higher rates for longer" remains. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield once surged to the highest level since 2007. Borrowing is getting more expensive, and inflation is not coming down. Then Trump announced the "most devastating economic action in history" against Iran, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called the "economic version of D-Day." U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the "toughest sanctions ever" on Iran — targeting the goal of "toppling the Iranian regime." Iran responded? "Any country participating in the sanctions will be considered at war with Iran." They also threatened that if the economic war continues, not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data shows that on August 15, only 5 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz Don't be fooled by the screenshot on CT saying "Whale shorting HYPE suffered huge losses"!
On-chain data doesn't lie. After digging into @loraclexyz's real ledger, you'll realize how terrifying the perception gap between retail investors and whales is:
Surface: Shorting HYPE with an unrealized loss of $16.5M, average price $54.74, already blown up?
Reality: This is just one leg of his nearly $100 million total holdings. His core position is 20x leveraged long gold (holding $59.68M, currently up $6.13M), also covering copper, US stocks, and dozens of other assets.
Truth: He's not simply betting on the rise or fall of a single coin, but doing a cross-market macro hedge of "long gold/commodities, short overvalued tokens."
The point of on-chain analysis is to learn the real hedging logic of the big players, not to follow marketing accounts and make up stories based on charts.
Do you think, given the current macro environment, that going long commodities + shorting overvalued crypto assets is a safe move?
$HYPE $XAUT #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
The baton for "rescuing US debt" has finally been passed to Waller.
Last week, Bostic tried to stabilize long-term US debt by expanding long-term US debt repurchase scale, but the market only responded for one day.
Subsequently, the dollar fell nearly 1% in a week, gold broke through $4600, and BTC surged more than 25% in a single week.
Interesting, right? The money hasn't disappeared; it's just looking for a new outlet.
US debt yields can't be suppressed, fiscal pressure remains, and market concerns about inflation and liquidity have ultimately shifted to gold $XAU and $BTC.
So what really deserves attention this week is what Waller will say at Jackson Hole on Friday.
What the market most wants to know is actually just one question:
In the face of inflation and fiscal pressure, does the Federal Reserve have a clear policy path?
If Waller can release a clearer dovish signal, the dollar and US debt yields may continue to be under pressure, while gold and BTC might continue to benefit.
But if he remains ambiguous or even re-emphasizes inflation risks, then long-term US debt may continue to be under pressure, and risk assets should be cautious.
So now I actually think:
The key variable for BTC this week might not be BTC itself, but US debt and the dollar.
If US debt can't be stabilized and the dollar continues to weaken, funds may continue to look for "alternative outlets."
And BTC might be one of the increasingly important outlets. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ZECHitsOKXHigh
ZEC hitting an OKX record near $859 isn't just a price story. ETF hopes are arriving as Zcash upgrades privacy and supply verifiability, giving investors both a catalyst and a stronger technical narrative. But Cypherpunk controlling nearly 18% of hash rate adds a new risk. If ETF momentum fades, concentration could matter fast. ZEC now has to prove this repricing is backed by durable demand, not just expectations.$Pinduoduo (PDD)$ The key point of this Q2 financial report is that revenue is still growing, trading services continue to run faster, but profits have not improved accordingly. Revenue and operating profit both grew 8% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell 12% year-on-year, indicating that the market should not focus solely on GMV, transactions, and revenue, but also on the impact of ecosystem investments and other profits and losses on profits. Let's look at the core data first: Q2 total revenue was 112.358 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year; Operating profit was 27.764 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 27.182 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year; Non-GAAP net profit was 28.489 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year. Diluted earnings per ADS were 18.45 yuan, down from 20.75 yuan in the same period last year. Revenue and operating profit grew in tandem, but net profit weakened, which is the most important aspect of this financial report. Trading services remain the main driver of revenue growth. Online marketing services and other revenue were 57.637 billion yuan, while transaction services revenue was 54.721 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, outpacing overall revenue. Transaction service revenue now accounts for nearly half of total revenue, indicating that Pinduoduo's growth does not rely solely on traditional advertising monetization; the platform's transaction chain itself continues to contribute incremental growth. However, in terms of growth rate, total revenue this quarter only grew 8% year-on-year, shifting market focus from "whether Pinduoduo can maintain high revenue growth" to "whether transaction service growth can support longer-term profitability." Ecosystem investment has not stopped this season's sales and operationsSaylor just broke the pattern. 👀
During the biggest Bitcoin move since election week 2024, Michael Saylor bought zero BTC.
That’s unusual.
The last two times BTC had a +20% weekly move, Saylor bought 12K BTC and then 79K BTC into those rallies.
And here’s the bigger picture:
Since July 2024, every major BTC move ended higher 3 months later, with an average gain of around +30%.
So if history is rhyming…
this might not be the top. It might be the setup.
Higher. 📈
#DailyOrbit This is not a meme season, but a "value return season" for DeFi — Is AAVE breaking through $144 just the beginning? SPK up 44.8% in a single week, ENA up 96% weekly, AAVE breaks $144. This is not the meme frenzy of March 2024; this is a completely different market trend. If it must be compared, it’s more like the DeFi Summer of 2020 — capital is repricing protocols in the Ethereum ecosystem that can truly make money. On August 24, the top gainers in the crypto secondary market were all DeFi: SPK: up over 26% in a single day, nearly 44.8% in the past week MORPHO: up 20.84% in a single day, at $2.751 AAVE: up 16.76% in a single day, at $144.07 — highest since February PENDLE: up 14.34% in a single day, at $1.847 ENA: up 13.64% in a single day, at $0.1685, nearly 96% weekly gain — almost doubled ETHFI, LDO, MET all up over 10%. The entire DeFi sector is exploding. But this is not indiscriminate buying — capital is selective. Compare this to the meme season. What did the meme season look at? Who had the most memes, who had the flashiest name, who pumped the hardest. Fundamentals? Not needed. Revenue? Not needed. Team? Even less needed. Sentiment intensity was everything. But this round is different. Capital is allocating around what? Protocols with real revenue, assets with deep governance. AAVE—$SNDK Why has SanDisk been receiving mostly positive news recently, yet its price continues to decline?
Guan Ge will give you a simple analysis. In summary, the mainstream trend is clear now; most funds have withdrawn from the US stock market and flowed into mainstream currencies like ETH and BTC. The earlier positive news has mostly been absorbed by the market, and these benefits have already been priced in. The fundamentals are getting better, but the price surged too sharply earlier, so the market is now trading on "positive news realization" and valuation rather than purely on the positive news itself.
Currently, SNDK looks more like a high-level re-pricing after a big rally, not because the fundamentals suddenly worsened.
In the short term, I will focus on the 1500 level. If it can stabilize here with increased volume, it indicates the market is starting to re-acknowledge this rally, and there is a chance to challenge the previous highs; if it continues to fluctuate or breaks below 1500, it may retest lower levels. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $xSNDK dropped 4% pre-market, reviewing "when it rises too much, it's time to sell"
For SanDisk $SNDK, I told everyone to take profits on 8/17, and today it was confirmed.
On 8/21 it closed at 1,596.08, but on 8/24 pre-market it directly dropped 4% to about 1,532. The storage sector collectively pulled back: Samsung shareholder returns fell short of expectations, MU and Hynix also dropped over 3%. I'm writing this to review with you "why when it rises too much, it's time to sell." #SanDiskInvestorDay, long-term goals become the focus
1. The foundation of long-term contracts remains: 8 major customers with $93.9 billion contract value, $91.1 billion remaining performance obligations locked in; NBM long-term contracts cover 50% for FY27 → 67% for FY28; gross margin target ~80%, operating profit 75%; HBF high bandwidth flash tape-out on 8/18. This is real evolution.
2. But today's sector negative news caused a 4% pre-market drop, indicating expectations are loosening. YTD still +564%, 32% below the 6/22 high of 2,354, rising too much is the original sin. Look at Micron's explosive earnings after-hours yet still falling, SanDisk is similar.
3. Analyst average price target is 2,000 (+25%), but short-term storage cycle peak views vary greatly. 1,600 was originally stagnant, now broken pre-market, don't rush to bottom-fish. Robinhood's on-chain capital accumulation shows a severe structural imbalance, with a core contradiction between the surge in stablecoin and Meme liquidity and the stagnation of US stock RWA accumulation, presenting a short-term dominance of speculative funds.
The total on-chain locked value surpassed $540 million in mid-August with a 45% monthly increase, overturning previous market pessimism about capital outflows. However, the total stablecoin amount reaching about $640 million indicates ample liquidity reserves, while RWA assets are only about $32 million, causing their share to quickly drop from nearly one-third in early July to about 6%, directly breaking the assumption of a US stock-dominated on-chain ecosystem.
The main drivers of capital flow are speculative Meme trading and stablecoin risk-hedging accumulation, with RWA allocation demand ranking last. Incremental funds remain in decentralized exchanges engaging in high-frequency speculation, without converting into genuine medium- to long-term holdings of US stock tokens.
The bullish scenario depends on the effective conversion of stablecoins into US stock assets. If the RWA scale rebounds and surpasses the $100 million mark while stablecoins continue to grow, on-chain liquidity will shift from pure short-term speculation to structural support, driving high-quality TVL growth.
The failure condition for this bullish scenario is that stablecoin scale continues to expand but RWA share remains below 6%, indicating that incoming funds are entirely reduced to speculative chips on decentralized exchanges.
The bearish scenario is based on a cooling of Meme speculation triggering liquidity squeeze. If decentralized exchange trading volume declines causing rapid liquidity withdrawal, and the $32 million RWA accumulation is insufficient to support the ecosystem foundation, overall TVL may face a rapid monthly drop exceeding 20%.
The failure condition for this bearish scenario is that while Meme activity declines, the absolute scale of RWA grows against the trend, and the optimization of capital structure will negate expectations of ecosystem liquidity collapse.
Key observations for the next 7 days include changes in decentralized exchange trading volume, whether the absolute scale of RWA assets can stop falling and stabilize, and the conversion rate of stablecoin accumulation funds into US stock tokens.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元The trap of circulating supply: only 7.44% of UNITREE’s total coins are actually in circulation. On the surface, its total market cap of 2,590 billion VND looks intimidating, but when you break it down, the free-float market cap is just 192 billion VND. What does that mean? It means the amount of coins available to buy on the open market is extremely thin. The main holders only need a small portion of capital to effectively control the market. Recently, short-form videos have flooded social medi过去一周，$XRP 一度上涨超过 40%，最高冲击 $1.75 附近，随后回落至 $1.52–$1.55 区间。 这不是普通的反弹，而是一波明显的资金驱动行情。 现在，我更关注的不是它已经涨了多少，而是接下来能否把突破真正转化为支撑。 📌 关键观察区间：$1.48–$1.55 如果多头能够守住这一带，同时成交量维持活跃，那么 $XRP 仍有机会再次挑战 $1.70–$1.80 区域。 但如果价格跌破 $1.45，并伴随明显放量卖出，那么市场可能需要经历一次更深的调整，重新积累力量。 更值得注意的是，这波行情并不只是 $XRP 的独立上涨。 随着 $BTC 和 $ETH 保持强势，市场资金开始向大型山寨币扩散，$SOL、$HYPE、$ZEC、$LINK 和部分高流动性代币都出现了明显的资金关注。 与此同时，近期现货加密 ETF 资金流仍然是市场的重要催化剂，机构资金持续进入 $BTC 和 $ETH，也正在改善整个加密市场的风险偏好。 这可能意味着： 市场正在从“只买 BTC”逐渐进入“资金寻找更高 Beta 资产”的阶段。 但经历一周超过 40% 的上涨后，我不会选择追高。 真正重要的Kashkari says US Treasury bonds haven't failed, do you believe that?
Last Sunday, the Minneapolis Fed President publicly stated: the US Treasury market is functioning normally, liquidity is sufficient, and the Fed just needs to keep an eye on inflation.
But a few days ago, the Treasury Department did something completely unsettling — it doubled the repurchase scale of long-term bonds from 10 to 30 years, increasing a single operation from 2 billion to over 4 billion. The reason is simple: the 30-year yield surged to 5.3% intraday on August 18, the highest since 2007, and buyers collectively went on strike.
What happened next? Once the repurchase news came out, yields briefly plunged but gave back all gains within 48 hours. This shows repurchases are a liquidity tool, a temporary fix, not a fundamental solution. The total federal debt just broke $40 trillion, about 123% of GDP, doubling in ten years, with interest rolling into the deficit. This hole can't be filled by buying back old debt a few times.
Kashkari says "historically, these yields aren't high," but in the 90s debt was just over 60% of GDP, now it's 123%. Can the fiscal foundation be the same?
So what are the smart people doing? Gold rose from $4030 to over $4600 in August, up about 14%, rising for five consecutive weeks. $BTC was even stronger, rallying from 62,000 to 78,000 dollars, up over 20% in a week. When sovereign credit is questioned, the value of non-sovereign assets goes up. Gold is the old answer, BTC is the new answer.
Can long-term bond repurchases solve the root problem? No. The real solution is either fiscal tightening or the market teaching you a lesson with higher term premiums. Until then, holding some gold and BTC is more reliable than watching Kashkari's words Brothers and sisters, hello now! Asian stock markets performed poorly on Monday, but BTC remained steady around 78000. The real test comes on Tuesday: Nvidia earnings, PCE data, and Jackson Hole, three landmines lined up waiting for you to step on.
🔴 Asia Review: AI Sector Under Pressure
Asian stock markets weakened across the board on Monday. South Korea's KOSPI plunged 3.4%, Samsung plummeted 8.7%—shareholder return plans fell short of expectations, compounded by semiconductor sector pressure ahead of Nvidia's earnings. The Hang Seng Index dropped 2.1%, Alibaba fell nearly 10%, issuing 80 billion HKD in new shares for AI infrastructure. The Nikkei fell 0.49%, and the CSI 300 dropped 1.3%.
Core contradiction: The AI narrative hasn't collapsed but is under short-term pressure. The industry chain is shifting from "expectation speculation" to "cost realization."
🌃 U.S. Pre-Market: Nvidia Earnings Decide Life or Death
Nasdaq futures down 0.3%. Nvidia's earnings (after market close Tuesday) are the real trigger point, with market expectations at $92 billion in revenue and options pricing ±6% volatility. Exceeding expectations → positive for BTC retesting 80k; missing expectations → tech stocks under pressure.
Tariff wars are also suppressing sentiment. The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Canada, and Canada will retaliate.
📊 Crypto Market
$BTC rebounded after dipping from 79500 to 75650 over the weekend. Last week saw $1.9 billion net inflow into ETFs, Coinbase premium index turned positive, U.S. spot demand improved, but about 53,000 BTC flowed into exchanges over the past 3 days, accumulating selling pressure.
A large amount of liquidity is stacked between 78000-80000, BTC is pushing toward 80k $BTC Monday Market Preview🔥
Last week, the mainstream strong northbound movement sparked discussions about whether the bull run has returned and if 58,000 is the cycle bottom?
From my personal perspective and institutional analysis, my answer would be: it doesn't look like a bottom, more like a violent rally followed by consolidation to find a bottom. Currently, the market is waiting for the mainstream to provide the next direction amid several news factors.#BTCETFInflowsSurge I am Cige, shorting BTC between 78000 and 80000. This is not chasing the short but waiting for the simultaneous confirmation of technical, capital, and macro signals for a sniper attack. This range is not arbitrarily drawn; it is the limit area of this round of short squeeze rally. What does 78000 to 80000 mean? BTC has surged over 15000 points from 63000 within a week, setting a new weekly record. The core driving forces of this rally are the resonance of Treasury buybacks, Trump's policy statements, and short squeeze, not a fundamentally driven bull market restart. From the liquidation structure perspective, $430 million in short positions have been cleared, and the short squeeze fuel is running out; going higher requires new spot buying to take over. The 78000 to 80000 range is exactly the key resistance zone at the daily level, while 82200 to 82400 is the 50-week moving average and a large area of trapped positions being released. Every step the price moves up increases selling pressure. Technical signals: The 4-hour RSI is severely overbought, and the 1-hour chart has already shown bearish divergence, with price making new highs but momentum indicators not following. After failing to break through 80000, the price has fallen back to oscillate around 77000, a typical pattern signaling the end of a short squeeze rally. The 75000 to 77000 range is the core area of the bulls and bears battle; if broken, support lies around 74000 to 74500. Capital signals: Whales have sold a total of 7700 BTC in the past 3 days, worth about $577 million, with large funds offloading at high levels. Binance and Coinbase InstToday, Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and Korean tech stocks all experienced sharp declines, but the cryptocurrency and gold concepts remained very stable, showing no signs of weakness. What I see now is ETH, LTC, and BTC all launching their next surge to new heights, while gold has broken through recent highs again. This afternoon, I saw all tech stocks falling. I thought that with the US stock market opening tonight, both crypto and gold might be affected, so I was basically in a state of full selling, including Hype, which I am optimistic about. However, that night I saw LTC and ETH were so strong, so I bought some back on my live trading account. I think this is an important sign of capital switching: 1. Liquidity has shifted from large tech stocks like US stocks and Korean stocks to the crypto and gold markets, and judging by the flow of ETF funds, there is no sign of retreat. 2. Actually, it's not just today; the past half month has shown the resilience of crypto assets. They didn't follow the decline much, then either moved sideways or rose. Personal trading tips: 1. Today I opened two countertrend positions: short positions for XRP, ETH, and BCH. At the time, I thought US stocks might fall tonight, so I would lay in wait on a few weaker stocks, but the script didn't go as I had planned, so I cut my losses early. 2. Later, I saw that ETH and LTC were stronger, which completely dismissed my belief that "US stocks will follow the decline." Then I opened long positions on ETH and LTC, and LTC is still in a loss.Huh? The prediction on Polymarket that Ethereum would fall below 2400 in August was 53% an hour ago, and now it has surged to 75.5%. A 22.5 percentage point swing, everyone is frantically betting that $ETH won't hold 2400.
What's interesting is, where is this selling pressure coming from? I checked the data — large holder addresses are transferring ETH to exchanges, on-chain activity is decreasing, and bearish options in the derivatives market have been steadily increasing these days. Someone is positioning short in advance, and there must be some news brewing, but it hasn't broken out yet.
Could the bull market lasting a few days really be ending like this? Turning into a monkey market?Altcoin Heat-Up Behind the Scenes: The "All Coins Soaring" Phenomenon Is Hard to Reappear
After strong rebounds in Bitcoin and Ethereum, the altcoin market has heated up, with some strong tokens significantly outperforming the broader market and even hitting new highs.
Although capital inflows and rising risk appetite are sending positive signals, it may still be too early for a full-scale altcoin season. More importantly, even if the altcoin season returns, the broad-based rally seen in the past may be difficult to replicate.
1. Altcoin Market Cap Returns to $1 Trillion, Few Tokens Outperform the Market
Since Bitcoin's recent strong counterattack, the long-dormant altcoin market has regained attention, with noticeable increases in market size and trading activity.
According to CoinGecko data, since August 19, the total altcoin market cap has increased by over $250 billion, now rising back to about $1.13 trillion. Meanwhile, CoinGlass data shows that daily altcoin trading volume rose from about $86.23 billion to $132.43 billion during the same period, an increase of approximately 53.6%.
Capital is flowing back into the altcoin market, and activity has clearly improved. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost recently revealed that 56% of altcoins listed on Binance have climbed back above their 200-day moving averages, indicating the market may be entering a new cycle phase.
With risk appetite rising, many altcoins have recently started to rise significantly, with some tokens even outperforming the market.
Among the top 100 tokens by market cap, the top 30 gainers in the past 7 days averaged a gain of over 34.9%, outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum during the same period. These include:
· ENA: up 98%
· PUMP: up 80.5%
· ZEC: up 69.7%
· AAVE: up 60.7%
The rise of these strong tokens is driven not only by the overall market sentiment recovery but also by improvements in their fundamentals and positive events:
· ENA: Ethena secured a $1 billion FalconX financing arrangement, with Arthur Hayes publicly bullish and buying;
· PUMP: improved protocol revenue and burn ratio, product upgrades, and gradual digestion of large unlocking pressure;
· AAVE: protocol liquidity recovery, V4 deposit scale growth, and improved regulatory compliance expectations;
· $ZEC and HYPE: recently hit new highs, driven by Grayscale ETF revisions and statements at Trump's crypto conference.
From the sector distribution perspective:
· The privacy sector has the highest average gains, mainly contributed by the single asset ZEC, without broad-based gains;
· The DeFi sector has been revalued by capital, with AAVE, ENA, UNI, MORPHO, SKY averaging about 51.5% gains in the past 7 days (still about 39.9% excluding ENA);
· The Meme sector performed strongly, with PUMP, PEPE, $DOGE, SHIB averaging 46.75% gains in the past 7 days, usually seen as a signal of rising risk appetite.
Overall, this rally includes technical rebounds after overselling and reflects a shift in market sentiment from defense to offense. However, capital tends to flow toward high-beta, strong narrative, and clearly catalyzed assets rather than broad allocation.
2. Traditional Rotation Logic Is Failing, the Era of Broad-Based Gains May Be Over
Although the altcoin market is warming up, it is still far from a full-blown altcoin season.
CoinGlass data shows the altcoin season index has rebounded to 48, up from a two-month low but still well below the 75 confirmation line. This means the market is still in a transitional and volatile phase, and capital has not fully overflowed.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market dominance remains high at 57.6%. Excluding Ethereum and stablecoins, other altcoins' market share is only 20.64%, with no significant recent change. This confirms that the current rise is more about selective token favor rather than broad liquidity overflow.
Historically, typical altcoin seasons occur after Bitcoin's significant rise followed by a high-level consolidation phase, when capital starts seeking higher-yield assets. Currently, Bitcoin's subsequent trend still requires more signals for confirmation, and early-stage capital still prioritizes Bitcoin, making it difficult for most altcoins to gain sustained support.
More importantly, the capital structure in this cycle has fundamentally changed:
· Wall Street institutions enter the market through ETFs and crypto treasuries, favoring more liquid and higher-certainty top assets;
· The number of altcoins has exploded, further dispersing limited liquidity, while incremental capital has not expanded correspondingly.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju also pointed out that the traditional altcoin rotation effect has basically disappeared, with altcoin trading volume against $BTC pairs having shrunk significantly since 2021.
In his view, the era of making money by issuing tokens based solely on narratives is over. Altcoins are not dead, but only projects with real business and actual revenue are worth holding long-term. He specifically mentioned three categories:
1. Global internet companies with tokenized market layers, such as TON;
2. DeFi protocols with real revenue, such as high-quality DEXs like Hyperliquid;
3. Projects aligned with global financial trends, including stablecoins, RWA, tokenized stocks, etc.
The altcoin season may still come in the future, but the era of "everything you buy goes up" may be over, replaced by a more selective rotation.
Going forward, whether capital can continue to flow in is only a prerequisite for the market to start. What truly determines whether tokens can survive the cycle remains the project's fundamentals, actual revenue ability, and sustainability of the narrative.
#ZEC hits new all-time high on the platform, privacy assets revalued
#ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500
#BTC fluctuates after rally, ETF funds continue to flow in 🤗 Breaking news: The sharpest market makers in the crypto space just collectively opened short positions.
Onchain Lens spotted a wallet tagged as Wintermute shorting about $190 million on Hyperliquid.
$ETH over 53 million, $BTC over 30 million, $SOL over 22 million, $HYPE over 11 million, $XRP over 10 million. Currently, the unrealized loss is 5.85 million, but this address has historically made a total profit of about $203 million.
What do they know? I don't. But my confidence that there will be another sharp drop has definitely increased.
The BTC RSI is at 93, which is already overbought and urgently needs a decent correction. The fact that these top market makers dare to open such large short positions at least indicates one thing: there isn’t much room left above, and the selling pressure outweighs the buying strength. An unrealized loss of 5.85 million is just the cost of testing the market for them; with a $200 million bankroll, this amount is negligible.
Of course, this wallet hasn’t been officially confirmed by Wintermute, it’s just an on-chain label. Also, market makers often open both long and short positions for hedging, so it’s not necessarily a pure bearish bet. But whether they are hedging spot positions or genuinely expect a drop, it at least suggests that the risk at this level outweighs the opportunity.
I’ll keep holding as I have: half in $OKB as a hard bottom hold, half in BTC, and the other half in cash. When the crash hits my target level, I’ll deploy the cash to buy the dip.
PS: The above is my personal prediction and does not constitute investment advice. Profit and loss are your own responsibility.If BTC really has passed the bottom area, then it will no longer be the sole core asset in the future.
This week, BTC's highest price reached around 80,000. If this round's 57,800 is truly the bottom, the drop from the peak is about 54%. If it reverses from now on, the next cycle likely won't see much growth. Even if it reaches 150,000, that's basically just a 2x return. I don't really believe there will be a 5x return in 2-3 years.
My personal thought is, if BTC really behaves like this this round, expectations for BTC need to be significantly lowered. It might become more like a large-cap asset similar to a crypto index.
If that's the case, then more attention should be paid to other assets. BTC might no longer be one of the high-growth assets, and this is what I need to start preparing for.
The above is just one possibility. I don't know if it will become reality, but we need to be prepared for it.
I personally did not get on board during this rise because my system did not signal me to buy. Since I also have a BTC bottom-fishing panel, my panel has been indicating a slightly undervalued position. Neither time, drop percentage, nor data triggered my system.
My system's strategy is to start buying when the panel score exceeds 60, but it only reached 59 at its highest. So far, no buy signal has been triggered.
Also, my judgment on the ma120 is that only a breakout after a long sideways movement in the bottom area or a breakdown after sideways movement in the top area can be considered a reference strategy.
I initially wondered why I didn't buy when ma120 broke out, but my current answer is that precisely because I followed my own strategy, I didn't buy.
However, I really didn't consider the possibility of a direct bull market at this time, which is an area where my strategy can improve.
The reason I set 60 points as the buy threshold is not arbitrary. Based on the last cycle, it would have been around 20,000 to start buying.
Although I do feel a bit afraid of missing out, I rationally believe that based on the data, there is still a chance my system's alert will be triggered. It's just that this time I didn't expect a direct surge.
Currently, I think there are roughly a few possible scenarios:
1: This time is a true reversal.
2: This time is a bear market rebound.
3: A completely unexpected market breaking the 4-year cycle, turning into a model similar to the US stock market.
From the perspective of time, data, and cycle, it doesn't really look like a reversal now, but from the current facts and technicals, it does look like a reversal. This is the contradictory part.
To be honest, I haven't figured out a specific strategy yet, but the general direction is to prepare countermeasures for various situations and always assume I might be wrong, because the market is always right. Being prepared with countermeasures is the most important.Micron announces a $10 billion investment in R&D laboratories, combined with record-high gross margins, making $MU a core target for capital competition and valuation re-evaluation in the semiconductor sector.
The latest quarter's 84.9% gross margin and better-than-expected profitability push the market's pricing of the storage supercycle to the extreme.
The plan to invest $10 billion over ten years to establish laboratories is driving institutional positions further toward the core supply chain of AI infrastructure.
This capital expenditure expansion directly converts long-term capacity barriers into current risk appetite premiums, but the long-cycle R&D's occupation of short-term cash flow has already begun to appear in valuation models.
If the tight supply and demand for high-bandwidth memory continue through 2027 and gross margin guidance is met in subsequent quarters, the high capital expenditure will convert into a technology monopoly premium, driving the valuation midpoint higher; if supply is released too quickly, the upside logic collapses.
If semiconductor cycle fluctuations cause capacity digestion to slow, the fixed cost depreciation from the $10 billion expenditure will rapidly compress profit elasticity, triggering pullback pressure from concentrated position liquidations; if cost control exceeds expectations, downside pressure will temporarily ease.
When the market prices future capital commitments into current valuations prematurely, any advancement of supply-demand inflection points will quickly reverse the current risk appetite.
In the coming days, it is crucial to observe the semiconductor sector's willingness to absorb funds and signs of position rebalancing following the announcement of massive capital expenditures.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Coin stock meme exceeded expectations, Robinhood is willing to boost the proportion of US household stock holdings
Robinhood originally intended to make the chain an RWA infrastructure for "US stocks on-chain," but the hottest thing after launch turned out to be Meme. As of mid-August, the on-chain TVL has exceeded $540 million, with a 45% increase in August, but RWA is only about $32 million, dropping from nearly 1/3 at the beginning of July to about 6%; stablecoins have reached about $640 million.
My view: liquidity came first, the real RWA ecosystem is still catching up. If the scale of stock tokens continues to grow, the chain has great potential; otherwise, it is just a "Meme casino disguised as RWA." Strategically, pay attention to the proportion of RWA, stablecoin growth rate, and DEX activity. Don't rush to chase concepts before the data turns.After observing for two days over the weekend, I strongly suspect that the main drivers behind BTC are some traditional CTA quant funds, who buy BTC spot as a hedge against dollar depreciation when DXY weakens. Since DXY does not trade over the weekend, BTC lacks institutional momentum during that time. The clear market trend will only become apparent once the US stock market opens. On Saturday morning, there was a pump and dump in altcoins, most likely orchestrated by a major altcoin market maker or institution holding a large position in altcoins. After retail investors fomo in, they took the opportunity to harvest liquidity by dumping the market. The coins they dumped are currently showing strong performance, indicating a high probability of a shakeout. We can wait for the US stock market to open and continue observing BTC’s strength or weakness to increase the confidence in this judgment. The most common mistake in this wave is seeing BTC repeatedly break through resistance levels and immediately saying, "The bull market is back." Sentiment is indeed stronger than before, but relying solely on retail investors' orders cannot push BTC from $63,000–$65,000 all the way to around $78,000. This time, it seems more like spot funds pushed prices up first, macro expectations warmed up, and after the breakout, contracts faced short squeezes. Let's first look at the actual money entering the market. From August 17 to 20, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for four consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.107 billion. The most notable was August 19, with a single-day net inflow of $517 million. This set of data at least shows one thing: the rise is not entirely caused by short stop-losses; there is indeed new funds buying spot through ETFs. Without this genuine buying momentum, the subsequent short squeeze would have been hard to reach that far. On the other hand, the U.S. Treasury market has also provided reasons for improved liquidity in capital trading. The U.S. Treasury Department announced that starting September 9, it will raise the single repurchase cap for 10- to 30-year long-term bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. This is not the Federal Reserve's QE, nor is the Treasury directly injecting liquidity into the crypto space. It mainly addresses the problem of insufficient liquidity in long-term debt, so don't overtell the story. However, the market often buys not the policies themselves, but the expectations brought by them. With stronger buyback support for long-term bonds, funds will trade ahead of time. Liquidity in U.S. Treasuries improves, yield pressure eases, and the dollar weakens, giving gold and BTC a reason to move first. Truly the second half$HYPE 77.59, -5.69%, ATH 83.34 just overhead. The first decent pullback since the rebound from 55.
The more I look at Hyperliquid, the more interesting it gets: the top perpetual DEX on-chain, $280 million in 24-hour volume, real cash being burned on buybacks. Unlike UNI which is purely a governance token, and unlike OKB which is a centralized platform token, this is a decentralized financial infrastructure token with real revenue—there’s no second paradigm like this in the entire market.
But today’s pullback also reveals something: 82-83 is the ATH heavy lock-in zone, the first touch saw volume shrink, capital isn’t foolish enough to lift the early locked-in holders. 77-77.25 is today’s low; if it holds, it means high-level sideways consolidation and rotation, if it doesn’t, a retest of 70 wouldn’t be surprising.
For those wanting to participate, remember one thing: HYPE’s volatility is three times that of BTC, so position size should be one-third of BTC’s. Don’t chase the rebound; wait for confirmation of a pullback around 70-72.
Today’s market summary
BTC consolidating at 77000, ETH holding steady at 2445, SOL at 93 waiting for direction, OKB strengthening against the trend at 113, DOGE retracing to 0.090, HYPE pulling back to 78. US stocks: NVDA at 215 awaiting Jackson Hole, storage chain hit hard by Samsung, SNDK pre-market -4%, Hynix -3.4%, SPCX back to IPO levels.
Big picture: medium-term bullish bias unchanged, short-term broad decline so don’t catch falling knives. Today’s keyword is "wait" The narrative in the storage industry is shifting gears: by 2027, data centers will account for half of the NAND market demand. Every AI inference generates data, and all data must be stored locally.
$SNDK and Kioxia released the 9th generation 2Tb QLC 3D flash memory in August, with interface speeds 33% faster than the 8th generation. BiCS10 density is 60% higher than BiCS8. More importantly, HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) fills the storage tier gap between HBM and SSD, with Google and SK Hynix currently validating it. A brother involved in AI infrastructure said: the bottleneck for inference clusters is not computing power but storage; KV cache data volume is exploding, and HBF perfectly addresses this point.
Micron announced a $10 billion ten-year R&D plan, but SanDisk is leading with NBM long-term contracts + HBF technology positioning. Storage is transitioning from a cyclical product to an infrastructure asset, which is the root of valuation logic.
Conclusion: bullish in the mid-term. Pullbacks are opportunities, not risks. Buy in batches below $1,550; HBF mass production is the next catalyst. Don't view AI storage with cyclical stock thinking.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 In the previous announcement of $OKB, when I received the news, the price had already reached 60 USD. Without hesitation, I immediately placed an order with maximum leverage. At that time, the futures contract for OKB did not exist yet, so I could only use 10x leverage. The reason was very simple: with a total supply of 21 million tokens, if the price reached 100 USD, the market capitalization would only be 2.1 billion USD. Therefore, the price of 60 USD at that time was almost like a gift. In just a short period, the market quickly realized thisJust took a quick look at the market; definitely need to keep an eye on it tonight.
At 2 PM Eastern Time tomorrow, Bassett is holding an emergency press conference, saying they will launch an "economic D-Day" against Iran. The exact words are pretty scary—"the dawn of an economic decisive battle, the strongest financial offensive in history." It sounds like a big move, but basically, it's aimed at the Strait of Hormuz, meaning not a drop of oil will get through.
Honestly, Bitcoin's market is already fragile. The RSI is at 93—what does that mean? It's like the gas tank is empty but you're still flooring the pedal; a correction is due. Once Bassett's statement comes out, oil prices will likely jump, inflation expectations will rise again, the Fed will have to delay rate cuts, the dollar will strengthen, liquidity will tighten, and since Bitcoin moves so closely with the US stock market, it would be surprising if there’s no volatility tonight.
Altcoins and junk coins—stay far away. I've hit enough traps over the years to write a book. Whenever sudden news like this breaks, the big players love to use the clean news flow to spike prices sharply; the trend followers always end up getting harvested. Understanding this early saves you real money.
Right now, I only hold two: BTC and OKB. BTC is the big picture, OKB is the platform foundation—at least I don’t worry about being wiped out overnight.
Tonight’s strategy is light positions, set stop losses, don’t watch the 1-minute chart, and check the direction again early tomorrow. Don’t stay up too late; the market isn’t watched into existence, it moves on its own.
$BTC $OKB
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 The most critical variable in the entire market right now is this week's Jackson Hole speech.
Last week, US Treasury yields surged, and the Treasury Department's market rescue effect was short-lived. Part of the recent sharp rise in BTC and ETH came from safe-haven buying triggered by the US Treasury crisis, while another part was driven by short squeeze stop-losses and institutional inflows into ETFs, not purely continuous spot buying strength.
The market is now betting on the Fed's stance: if the speech leans dovish, risk assets will continue to rally; if hawkish, it will directly trigger a wave of profit-taking and pullback.
BTC spot ETFs saw nearly $1.92 billion inflows in a single week, and ETH ETFs also had large inflows. Institutional funds are indeed entering, but high-level contract liquidations are increasing, intensifying the long-short battle.
Regarding BTC, I believe the strong bullish foundation remains, but a large amount of profit-taking has accumulated in the short term and could be realized at any time causing a pullback.
The previous rally was largely forced by short covering, not a continuous influx of new buying. Before the news is released, the main players will repeatedly spike and shake the market, sweeping stop-losses up and down. Don't expect a direct break above 80,000 in one go.
ETH's rebound this week is even stronger, with a weekly gain exceeding 30%, also driven by massive short covering. On-chain activity and institutional holdings data are positive, but it is completely dependent on BTC's macro sentiment and lacks an independent trend.
My market sense: it looks strong on the surface, but RSI is severely overbought. If BTC holds steady, ETH's catch-up explosive power is strong; once BTC pulls back, ETH's retracement will definitely be larger than BTC's, with very low tolerance for error.
$BTC $ETH Just put the last bit of available U all into $AAVE.
I've been watching AAVE for a while. It’s been climbing slowly from the bottom, and recently this surge is quite strong, up more than 60 points in a week, directly pushing above 140.
Anyway, I’m looking at these points: TVL has broken 30 billion, the protocol’s real annualized revenue is over 600 million, and there are few projects on the market that can achieve this kind of revenue. The Aavenomics 3.0 automatic buyback and burn mechanism has an annualized buyback volume of over 400 million USD, meaning the protocol continuously buys on the market using its own income, which provides strong long-term price support.
The recent whale data is also interesting. Among the whale addresses tracked in August, the AAVE purchase ratio exceeded 77%, with a net inflow of over 30 million. Today I also saw a nearly 200 million USDC deposit directly into the Aave protocol. These addresses are not here for charity.
In terms of market rhythm, after doubling from the bottom, AAVE does have some short-term profit-taking pressure. But overall, DeFi is warming up, AAVE is the leader, and if the overall market doesn’t crash, I think the probability of it continuing to push upward is high.
Not opening many positions, isolated margin 10x, stop loss set at 126.68, calculated to withstand about 12 points. If it makes a big profit, great; if wrong, losing a few hundred U is like nothing.
Once the stop loss is set, I won’t manage it anymore.Arthur Hayes shouting $BTC 500,000 by the end of the year? This guy's talk is even more aggressive than mining rigs!
Brothers, here comes another show-off!
Arthur Hayes says BTC could reach $126,000 by year-end, and even surge to 500,000 after breaking through. Er Gou almost threw his phone—500,000? Who's going to take the bag? You or me?
Let's talk data. Glassnode just released: 85% of altcoin funding rates are already above the average, the most extreme since Bitcoin's historical highs. What does this mean? It means leverage is about to explode! Everyone is gambling with borrowed money, not real cash.
Look at Zcash mining profits: after $ZEC rose 70%, mining rigs earn 4.5 times more per kWh than Bitcoin rigs! Miners are all switching to mine Zcash, BTC's hash rate is being siphoned off, and you’re still shouting 500,000? Relying on talk to pump the price?
Short-term holders have recovered, with 74.9% profitable, but exchange inflows have surged to +28,600 BTC—the guys who broke even are transferring coins to exchanges preparing to bail! You shout 500,000, but they’re already placing sell orders.
Er Gou’s harsh take: If BTC can hold 100,000 by year-end, that’s charity from the dog whales; 500,000? Wait until the Fed prints money for the whole world. These people shouting targets just want you to take the bag so they can dump.
Hold your hands, don’t get fooled. I don’t recommend going long above 75,000, I’m bearish.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Friends, don't get too bullish just yet
There is a major event tonight that will have a significant impact on btc and eth.
At 2 AM, the US will announce the details of sanctions on Iran, which could become a major short-term variable for BTC and ETH.
If the sanctions exceed expectations and Iran escalates the conflict further, once the risk of the Strait of Hormuz is repriced, oil prices and risk aversion sentiment will rise, and BTC and ETH might face a pullback after a surge.
But the market hasn't turned bad yet. Ethereum hasn't disappointed me, once again breaking above 2500, clearly outperforming altcoins compared to BTC. I am focusing on BTC at 83000; if it holds here, ETH will continue to strengthen, and I even think there is a real chance it could reach 5000 this round.
It's normal for altcoins to dip slightly now, as funds are concentrating on BTC and ETH. I won't chase tonight; I'll wait for the news at midnight to land before deciding the next move.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 Why did the $78,000 level hold for so long but suddenly break this morning? Simply put, there are three underlying logics:
First, shorts became the fuel. There were too many high-leverage short stop-loss orders stacked above $78,000. Market makers only needed one surge to instantly trigger a chain of liquidations, pushing the price directly upward.
Second, the resistance-to-support flip is complete. Previous resistance zones have now all turned into support zones. As long as the 4-hour candle does not close below $77,500, the bullish structure remains very healthy.
Third, mainstream coin rotation has started. Capital is gradually flowing from BTC into high Beta assets like ETH and SOL, and a catch-up rally could erupt at any time.
Key attack and defense levels anchored:
➔ Major market $BTC: Buy on a pullback to $77,800, target $81,500, defend at $76,500.
➔ Second coin $ETH: Follow near $2,450, target $2,650, defend at $2,380.
➔ Strong player $SOL: Look to buy dips near $95.2, target $103.5, defend at $91.5.
➔ Platform coin $BNB: Follow near $692, target $735, defend at $672.
Trading is essentially a game of probability and risk-reward ratio. Execute when confident, cut losses promptly when wrong. This guy really can hold on!
1.38 million $HYPE tokens, 5x leverage, unrealized profit of $56.5 million, and he paid $5.03 million just in funding fees—that's enough for me to live several lifetimes, and that's only the fees.
The key is his entry timing was absolutely perfect, opening a position precisely 5 hours before Robinhood launched, throwing in $40 million straight away. The community calls him an insider dog, and it's not undeserved—who wouldn't be suspicious of this move?
This guy almost got liquidated in January this year; when HYPE dropped to 20, he had an unrealized loss of $20 million but managed to hold on. Then in March, May, and June, every time the price pumped, he would withdraw some margin, pushing the liquidation price higher, step by step reviving a dead position. This kind of "holding while withdrawing margin" strategy is rare on Hyperliquid; retail investors would have cut losses long ago, only institutions dare to play like this.
Now the interesting point comes: in every previous new high, he would withdraw margin. This time, from August 22 to 24, unrealized profit rose by another $3 million, and HYPE is still surging. Will he repeat the old trick? If he withdraws margin, it means he wants to keep holding; if he closes the position directly, that might be a signal of a top.
Also, that $5.03 million in funding fees is no small amount, bleeding him dry every day. Even if the direction is right, you still get skinned a bit. The unrealized profit looks good, but the actual amount you get will be discounted.Anyone who sees the symbol (3,3) knows the power of the 2021 Olympus DAO $OHM @OlympusDAO. IDO price $4, peaked at $1,415, up more than 300 times. And that's just the gain—there's also the new token rebased. If you hold on, starting with $500, you really have a chance to turn it into $5 million. Since then, any project in the industry that claims to be an OHM clone will have a group of followers paying attention or supporting it. All are gone! Back to the main topic. Recently, a very interesting new project has appeared on-chain: The Standard Reserve. It does not call itself a stablecoin or a governance token, but directly calls itself "The sovereign onchain central bank"—the central bank on the sovereign chain. 1. What exactly does it want to do? Traditional central banks have three core functions: — issuing money — regulating the money supply — accumulating reserve assets. The Standard Reserve implements all three tasks entirely in code, without committees, boards, or manual intervention. The white paper sums it up in one sentence: "It answers to no board, committee, or government. Because it’s 4,000 lines of immutable code. T$BTC has retaken the 200-week moving average—does this really mean the bear market has bottomed?
Not necessarily, but it is very likely a "value area" worth paying attention to, rather than an exact "price bottom."
The saying "retaking the 200-week moving average means the bear market bottom" comes from historical patterns, but this time the situation is somewhat different. Here's a detailed breakdown:
· Historical "bottom signals": In the past decade, in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, prices touched this line and then started massive rebounds (rising 8500%, 267%, 1125%, and 680% respectively). This is indeed a core indicator for judging cycle bottoms.
· "Value bottom" ≠ "Price bottom": This is the most critical understanding. History shows that even when reaching this line, prices may consolidate sideways for a long time or even drop again: in 2018, it consolidated for 4 months; in 2022, after breaking below, it hit new lows due to the FTX crash. As analyst Rekt Capital points out, this is more of a long-term value zone rather than a reversal point.
· The current delicate situation: As of 2026, the 200-week moving average has risen above about $60,000, while Bitcoin $BTC has recently hovered below $60,000, entering a long-term accumulation range. Analyst Rob believes this is a good opportunity for dollar-cost averaging but admits "the bottom may not have been seen yet," allowing more time to accumulate cheap chips.
Since it's hard to time the exact bottom, what should you do?
1. Don't try to go all in at once: Analyst Rob emphasizes that historically, buying at $15,000 or $16,000 (the last cycle bottom) was extremely wise, but no one can predict that absolute low point.
2. Use a dollar-cost averaging strategy: This is currently the most recommended approach. According to probability models, there is about a 55% chance we are in a bottom consolidation zone, a 30% chance of gradually starting an uptrend, and only a 15% chance of retesting lows due to a black swan event. Spreading out purchases with dollar-cost averaging is much safer than betting on a "lowest point."
In summary, retaking the 200-week moving average is a positive signal, but don't treat it as the starting gun for "the bottom." It's more like a reminder: you can start paying attention and gradually building your position. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #Cracks in the US Dollar's Credit: The Resonance Logic of Gold, the Yen, and Bitcoin
On August 24, gold rose above $4660, the USD/JPY fell back to 159, and Bitcoin surged to 78000—these three events happening simultaneously is no coincidence. Global capital is using real assets to reprice a question: Are dollar assets still worthy of unconditional trust?
The trigger was the US Treasury doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion on August 19. The market interpreted this as administrative intervention in bond pricing, directly shaking the foundation of US Treasuries as the "global risk-free asset." When the risk-free asset itself needs to be "managed," capital naturally seeks alternative anchors.
The underlying support for gold is the global central banks' net purchase of 289 tons in Q2; de-dollarization has shifted from a slogan to real operations on balance sheets. However, with a monthly increase of over 13% and severe technical overbought conditions, the short-term risk of chasing highs should not be ignored.
USD/JPY is repeatedly tugging around 159, with the 160 level acting like an invisible wall. Japan holds over $1.1 trillion in US debt, and a stronger yen actually erodes the book value of these assets—this dilemma of "not daring to let the yen get too strong" has led to a strange equilibrium in the exchange rate. The short-term direction can only be broken by the Jackson Hole meeting.
$BTC surged 23% in a single week, but with rising prices on shrinking volume and whales reducing positions in batches at high levels, smart money is using retail FOMO to sell. Essentially, this is a short squeeze after overselling, not the start of a new bull market.
The simultaneous rise of gold, the yen, and Bitcoin essentially represents a vote of no confidence in the US dollar by global capital. When the term "risk-free" no longer holds unconditionally, what truly determines asset trends over the next three to five years is not the weekly ups and downs, but whether this crack in the dollar's credit will stop at the financial markets or spread to the foundations of trade settlement and reserve currency.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
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