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$SNDK From above 1800 to around 1500, the bulls have taken significant paper profits, but Lucy's core judgment remains unchanged: this is a shakeout during an uptrend, not the end of the medium-term trend. She still sets 2000 as her target. The real conflict was that she chose to add positions in batches during the decline, rather than waiting for confirmation from the right. Once this script is judged correctly, the return is very flexible; If you misjudge, every additional position under high leverage narrows your escape path.
@山寨女王露西's original long positions are not chasing at high levels. She said she initially built positions around 1200 yuan, reduced positions in batches during the rise, then replenished them later. Currently, the overall cost is around 1400 yuan. Her plan is clear: add one more below 1500, add another near 1450, and if there is still emotional sell-off, then see if the 1350 to 1300 range can be supported. She believes the 1300 area is a key resistance turning support zone on the daily chart, and it will not be easy for the market to fall back to 1200 in one go.
But that doesn't mean there's no space below. She also noticed that at that time, the platform's data showed that long positions accounted for about 65% to 70%, and after a day of price drops, many people were still waiting for a reversal. In this crowded structure, the first price dip may not be the lowest point, and a pullback may just continue to attract bullish positions. So while watching the 2000, she reminded her not to use up all her bullets on the first kill. For her, 1500 and 1450 are split positions, not "buy whatever drops."
She was bullish on SNDK's logic, but the core wasn't a single cable meeting that night$SNDK I'm such an unlucky guy, I sold my long positions too early again, and rushed into short positions, feeling frustrated!!!
Judgment criteria: It only counts as valid if the position holds steady for 2-3 consecutive trading days; momentary intraday spikes don't count
Table
10-year US Treasury yield range and pressure on the storage sector Market performance interpretation
✅＜4.40% Pressure relieved, slightly bullish Liquidity environment is friendly, valuations open up, storage technology is more likely to rally, Treasury buyback target range [(Xueqiu)].
🟡4.40%-4.50% Neutral, critical zone The dividing line between bulls and bears; here it fluctuates, the sector depends on its own earnings cycle, interest rate impact is limited.
🔴4.50%-4.70% Strong suppression range Storage starts to show obvious pressure, fault tolerance decreases; even with good earnings, large swings and increased volatility are common. The recent storage crash occurred just above this range.
⛔＞4.70% High risk zone Valuation compression intensifies, as long as yields are driven by inflation/fiscal factors, the storage sector is prone to sharp corrections; only very strong earnings breakthroughs can offset the negative impact of rates.
🚨＞5.00% Severe risk alert Historical-level pressure, growth stocks generally face valuation cuts, highly elastic sectors like storage will see amplified correction space, best to avoid bullish strategies.
Very important: Distinguish the source of upward yield movement
1. Yield rises due to strong economic data
Even if it hits 4.6-4.7, as long as corporate profits continue to exceed expectations, storage may not crash sharply, just the upward momentum is weakened.
2. Yield rises due to inflation rebound, US debt supply, fiscal concerns (malignant rise)
This was the scenario for the storage crash in August; at the same 4.6%, the damage is much greater, with risks of both stock and bond sell-offs, storage is the first to be hit.
Combined with the Treasury buyback on September 9
- Ideal effect: push the 10-year Treasury yield back below 4.4%, easing pressure on the storage sector.
- Below expectations: insufficient buyback strength, yields remain above 4.5%, storage will continue to be suppressed by rates.
Three practical trading watchwords
1. 4.5% is the first red line: if it holds above 4.5%, reduce position expectations for storage longs, avoid chasing highs.
2. Only intraday spikes don’t count; focus on closing results over 2-3 consecutive days, don’t panic over single-day pulses.
3. Interest rates are just the denominator; the ultimate determinants for storage chips are storage cycles, HBM orders, corporate earnings reports; rates are just an amplifier, not a standalone trading basis.
Supplement: The 30-year Treasury yield can be used as auxiliary reference; the 10-year yield is the core indicator for judging SanDisk and Hynix.【BTC Breaks Through Key Cost Line with Explosive Volume, Bear Market May Have Ended Early】
$BTC surged from around 62,000 to nearly 80,000 in one week, a gain of over 23%, marking one of the strongest weekly performances in recent years.
This cannot be explained by "short squeeze" alone.
Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.6 billion, with spot trading volume expanding simultaneously; BTC reserves on exchanges dropped from about 3.4 million during the last bear market to around 2.7 million currently. BlackRock's IBIT now holds over 760,000 BTC.
What’s truly noteworthy is that after the price surge, contract open interest actually decreased, indicating short positions were liquidated, but the market has not seen a large influx of high-leverage long positions. Spot demand and institutional capital are the more important forces behind this breakout.
$BTC has reclaimed the 200-day moving average and the short-term holder cost line. My judgment is that the major bottom of this bear market likely formed between 50,000 and 60,000, and the bear market may have officially ended early.
In the short term, there is still a chance to challenge 83,000, but the early bull market will not just rise without any pullbacks. If a consolidation range forms afterward, or even a pullback near 72,000 and the short-term holder cost line, that could be the next opportunity worth watching for positioning.
The biggest risk now is not being out of the market, but anxiously chasing highs after a big rally. Will you wait for a pullback to buy, or believe $BTC will break directly through 83,000?This Friday evening, Walsh will make his first major policy statement at Jackson Hole, and the market has already entered a state of "waiting for answers." Tonight, focus will be on US durable goods orders, followed by the release of PCE inflation data and GDP revisions, which will serve as the most important data setup before the speech. Earlier, the Fed meeting kept rates unchanged 8-4, with some officials still signaling a more hawkish stance. Although pausing rate hikes remains the main theme, the future policy path is not yet fully determined. What the market really wants to know is not just whether Wash is "hawkish" or "dovish," but whether he can clearly explain inflation, employment, and future interest rate decision conditions. Currently, the market is pricing in expectations: $BTC is around $77,600, $ETH around $2,430, and $XAU is holding around $4,580. But don't simply treat all three as safe-haven assets. BTC and ETH are currently more susceptible to dollar liquidity, real interest rates, and risk appetite; Gold more reflects changes in fiscal credit, monetary policy, and real interest rates. If data remains hot, Walsh signals a tougher policy, and the dollar and Treasury yields keep rising, risk assets may be the first to come under pressure, with BTC and ETH being especially sensitive, and gold also likely to be constrained by rising real interest rates. Conversely, if he clearly sets conditions for pausing rate hikes or even future easing, yields fall, and the dollar weakens, the rebound potential for BTC and ETH could increaseI've observed the storage sector's trend over the past two weeks and the crypto market sentiment recently, and it can be summarized as "short storage, long crypto," which still fits the current situation well.
SanDisk $SNDK looks more like a meme coin, even the leader of meme coins. It's said to be an AI bubble, similar to the internet bubble. Since its historical high around $2400 in June, its market cap has evaporated by nearly half in just over a month. The situation on the Korean side is even more grim. The US stock market is also at a high level now, and there is still a risk of continued volatility and pullback. So the summary is "short storage" #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
$BTC BTC spot ETF recorded the largest weekly net inflow since last October, which surprised most people as it kept rising. This indicates that "smart money has shifted," seemingly returning to the crypto market that was ignored for months, which can be seen as another way to harvest retail investors. The bullish trend is gradually forming. Be cautious with leverage, prevent flash crashes, and consider going long on pullbacks.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
To summarize, the fundamentals of storage stocks are actually not bad, but the stock prices seem to have risen too much. On the crypto side, the macro environment (weakening dollar, treasury repo) just supports it. So in the short term, the logic of "short storage, long crypto" is consistent.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
This is just a share. Of course, if you remember it, you might thank me. $BTC $ETH $OKB SOL｜Market Analysis at 00:30 AM on 8.25
As of the early morning of August 25, the crypto market is in a strong rebound driven jointly by macro policies, short squeeze, and institutional sentiment.
📊 Overall Market Overview
The past week (up to August 23) was the strongest week for Bitcoin since March 2023, with a weekly gain of over 23%, once breaking above $79,000. Market sentiment completely reversed, with the Fear & Greed Index soaring directly from “Fear” (46 points) to the “Greed” zone (80 points).
Performance of Major Assets:
· $BTC Bitcoin: around $79,000, weekly gain about 24.7%. Technically, it has risen above the 50-week EMA, the first time since November 2025, regarded as a reliable signal of a mid-term trend reversal.
· $ETH Ethereum: around $2,508, weekly gain about 32.4%. Outperformed Bitcoin, benefiting from the overall market risk appetite recovery.
· $SOL Solana: around $96, weekly gain about 27.8%. Price rebounded nearly 28% from a low near $74 but faces key resistance in the $100-105 range.
· $OKB: Recently strong performance, once surged over 10% on August 21, reaching the $120 mark.
🔍 Technical Analysis and Key Levels
Bitcoin ($BTC)
Although the overall trend is bullish, multiple short-term indicators show overbought conditions. The 14-day RSI entered an overheated zone at 79.69, and the MACD histogram is near the zero line, indicating weakening short-term upward momentum. The psychological resistance zone is between $78,400-$79,300, with stronger resistance at $83,300-$84,500. Key support levels are at $76,254 and the $75,000-$77,000 range; a pullback to these levels is worth watching.
Solana ($SOL)
$SOL shows a weekly buy signal but must effectively break through the $100-$105 resistance zone to confirm a larger trend reversal. If successful, analysts target a short-term goal of $114-$116, and even a mid-to-long-term target of $160-$180. Key support lies at $75-$80; breaking below this area could invalidate the rebound structure.
⚠️ Trading Reminder
The market is overheated in the short term, and part of this surge is due to a short squeeze in the futures market—about $3-4 billion of short positions were liquidated within a week. After this momentum fades, the market may return to fundamentals for testing. It is recommended to wait for a price pullback near support levels before considering entry, avoiding chasing highs when RSI is overbought and prices approach resistance zones. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $BTC & $ETH : IS HISTORY ECHOING AGAIN?
In 2022, $BTC fell to $17.7K in June, rallied sharply, then retested lows near $15.8K. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC has again rebounded strongly from below $60K toward $80K, while $ETH recovered above $2.4K. But this cycle has a major difference: institutional demand is returning through spot ETFs, with recent weekly inflows approaching $2B for Bitcoin and nearly $700M for Ethereum.
Is this a real cycle bottom—or another relief rally? BTC surged to 80,000 then pulled back
$BTC surged 22% in a single week, touching $79,400 intraday before quickly retreating to the $77,000–78,000 range. On the surface, it looks like a "failed push to 80,000," but the market hides a contradictory phenomenon: everyone says "institutions are buying," yet the price can't move higher.
Money is coming in, but the price can't rise. Weekly ETF net inflows reached $1.92 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT alone taking $503 million in a single day. But ETFs are passive allocation funds driven by index rebalancing; "must buy" does not equal "buy because of optimism." The money is mechanically injected, not actively bullish.
Shorts are dead, but bulls are also nervous. The short squeeze seems strong, but the upward push is not from new buying but forced short covering. After shorts are fully cleared, the largest marginal buying power disappears—this is the fatal divergence of "new highs with shrinking volume."
Whales are selling, retail is chasing. On-chain data shows some large holders reducing positions at highs, while weekend liquidations totaled $304 million with longs accounting for 62.6%. Smart money quietly retreats, retail frantically buys, and ETFs mechanically buy—the three forces are completely opposed.
Using today's leverage to price tomorrow's liquidity. The U.S. Treasury doubled bond repo operations signaling easing, but macro liquidity transmission takes time, while crypto market leverage reacts instantly. Once expectations fail, premature pricing becomes overpricing.
Essence: BTC's identity crisis. It is transitioning from a "retail speculative asset" to an "institutional allocation asset," but the trading structure remains stuck in the old era. Institutional funds provide bottom support but lack upward elasticity; retail leverage provides upward elasticity but creates downside risk.
Going forward, rather than focusing on the 80,000 level, watch three signals: whether ETFs have three consecutive days of net outflows, whether on-chain active addresses grow simultaneously, and whether funding rates remain positive after falling.
The surge and pullback is not a simple technical correction but a deep game of "who is truly pricing BTC."
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
$ETH #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 #比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足 Good evening everyone!
$BTC BTC (Bitcoin)
Currently driven by liquidity easing from US Treasury repos and pro-crypto signals from Trump, it has recently staged a short squeeze rebound, quickly surging from around 60,000 to above 75,000 USD. Spot ETF funds are flowing back, and short sellers are concentrated in closing positions, amplifying the rally. As the market leader, its trend is tied to the progress of US regulatory bills and US Treasury yields. The short-term rebound is a resonance of news and short squeeze, with selling pressure from previous trapped positions above; if legislation falls short of expectations or inflation recurs, a rapid pullback will occur. Institutional funds hold a high proportion, liquidity is best, but there is no fundamental support, fully driven by macro factors and sentiment.
$ETH ETH (Ethereum)
This round of rebound shows significantly higher elasticity than BTC, following the broader market surge to surpass 2300 USD, representing a strong catch-up rally. Positive factors include improved regulatory expectations, warming narratives around DeFi and RWA, and PoS staking yields providing cash flow to holders. However, short-term L2 continues to divert mainnet Gas fee income, and US securities classification remains the biggest sword hanging over it. In terms of market behavior, ETH has a higher beta coefficient, rising sharply but often experiencing larger retracements than BTC; with many leveraged derivative positions, liquidation risk rises after rebounds, making it a mainstream coin in the speculative ecosystem narrative.
$TRUMP Trump Coin TRUMP
A pure Meme sentiment coin with no technology or business implementation, its market is entirely tied to Trump's crypto statements and public opinion heat. Recently, the president released crypto-friendly signals, causing a pulse-like surge in this coin, but its sustainability is very poor. The chips are highly concentrated in related entities' hands, posing a high risk of dump by the whales. It has no intrinsic valuation and tends to fall quickly after the hype fades. It is not a mainstream asset, highly speculative, with volatility far exceeding BTC and ETH. Once the news passes, it tends to bleed quickly, suitable only for very short-term sentiment speculation, with the highest risk level.
Overall market: This round of rise is jointly driven by policy expectations, liquidity improvement, and short squeeze, not a complete trend reversal. Going forward, focus will be on US Treasury data and the progress of the CLARITY Act congressional review.Pharaoh directly said that Kashkari and the Treasury Department are performing a counterplay. One says, "The market is fine, no need to intervene," while the other is urgently spending money on buybacks. Their disagreement perfectly reflects the current US debt dilemma. Kashkari, the hawkish guy: The market hasn't collapsed, don't worry unnecessarily. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, known as a hawk in the Federal Reserve, said directly on CBS's "Face the Nation" on August 23: The US debt market is fine, it hasn't malfunctioned. The 10-year yield at 4.7% looks scary, but it was much higher in the 1990s; market trading is normal and liquidity is sufficient. His logic is firm: The Fed only manages inflation and employment; the debt market is the Treasury's responsibility. Regardless of the 30-year yield soaring to 5.3% or debt surpassing 40 trillion, as long as the market can still trade and hasn't collapsed, the Fed shouldn't change policy just to suppress yields. The Treasury got anxious: first spend money to put out the fire before talking. When Kashkari spoke, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had already acted. On August 19, she announced raising the single buyback limit for 10-30 year Treasuries from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, doubling it. The effect? On the day the news came out, the 30-year yield briefly plunged nearly 10 basis points but bounced back the next day. Goldman Sachs bluntly said: This is a temporary fix, the impact is likely "relatively short-lived" because the Treasury's buyback money still needs to be replenished by issuing new debt. So where is the "fundamental" solution? Pharaoh helps you sort it out: First, inflation is the real switch. Goldman Sachs said it best: lowering inflation is the key to reducing bond yields The most dangerous signal for BTC may have already appeared.
Don't be quick to get swept up by voices like "institutions are bullish" or "the bull market is here."
The latest chip data shows a very subtle divergence in the market:
Holders of 100–1,000 BTC and 1,000–10,000 BTC are accumulating again.
But the real whales—addresses holding 10,000–100,000 BTC—have shown a clear decline in holdings after peaking on August 21.
What does this mean?
It likely means mid-sized funds are buying while large funds are selling.
The most worrisome thing is never that a whale sells once, but rather:
While the price rises, the largest holding group continues to distribute.
If enough new capital enters the market later to absorb all this selling pressure, BTC could still continue upward, even achieving a new breakout.
But if the price is only driven by sentiment and whales keep offloading chips to chasing buyers, then the more optimistic it looks now, the more likely a rapid pullback will occur later.
So don’t just look at whether the candlestick is up or not right now.
What you really need to watch are three things:
Are the whales still selling?
Are mid-to-large funds still buying?
Can new buying volume continue to absorb the selling pressure?
The most dangerous thing for BTC now isn’t a drop, but when everyone thinks it can only go up, and the smart money has already quietly started rotating.
Short-term you can be bullish, but never blindly chase the rally.
In a bull market, the easiest way to lose money is often not by picking the wrong direction,Wash's Jackson Hole debut is at 22:00 Beijing time on Friday.
Tonight we first look at durable goods orders, while tomorrow night's PCE and GDP revisions are the real warm-up.
The July FOMC held steady with a 9-3 vote, but three members advocated for a rate hike.
The pause still dominates, but a September rate hike is not truly off the table.
What everyone is waiting for is not just "hawk or dove," but whether Wash can present inflation, employment, and the next steps as a coherent, understandable set of rules.
The market has already taken its seat in the exam room early: $BTC near 79,400, $ETH close to 2,500, $XAU holding at 4,660.
Don't treat them all as safe havens.
BTC and ETH are mainly trading liquidity now, while gold is more about fiscal and monetary credit.
If data is hot and Wash turns hawkish again, with the dollar and US Treasury yields rising, BTC and ETH will likely take the first hit, and gold will also be knocked by real rates;
If he provides clear pause conditions and yields fall back, BTC and ETH will have greater resilience, and gold can continue to benefit from a weaker dollar.
The biggest fear this week is not hawkishness, but that after all his talk,
the market still doesn't know what to watch next.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 When Zcash rose from the ruins of June, it told the market with a 72% single-week increase: privacy coins are still alive.
On August 23, $ZEC once hit $888, marking the highest level in nearly eight years since 2018. The single-week increase exceeded 70%, with a cumulative rise of about 64% year-to-date, and over 1,770% in the past 12 months. As of August 24, ZEC pulled back to around $838-$844, with a market cap rising to about $13.8 billion, ranking 12th among crypto assets.
The direct catalyst was not a "return of the privacy narrative," but Grayscale's fifth amended filing. On August 21, Grayscale submitted the fifth amended registration statement, proposing to convert the existing Zcash Trust into a spot ETF listed on NYSE Arca, renamed "The Zcash ETF," ticker ZCSH, with an annual management fee of 2.5%. The filing also disclosed that a DCG subsidiary is negotiating to inject about 200,000 ZEC, valued at approximately $110 million, into the trust, which if realized could account for about 34% of the expanded fund's shares.
The derivatives market added fuel to the fire. At its peak, $ZEC futures daily trading volume reached $9.54 billion, open interest rose to $1.76 billion, while spot trading volume was only about $1.06 billion. Leveraged funds are rushing ahead of the yet-to-be-launched product.
This surge is a triple resonance of ETF expectations, derivatives leverage, and tightening supply narratives.
If the Grayscale fund is approved, the rally will continue; otherwise, the leverage will retreat depending on the vote. Welcome crypto friends to apply for United Nations positions and participate in related activities
Model: Peacekeeping-related business scenarios: Combining real cases of allowance distribution in war-torn areas, refugee aid, and wage payments through work-for-relief programs, with a focus on promoting the practical effectiveness of blockchain payments such as "instant settlement, zero network coverage, and full-chain traceability," replacing vague technical concepts with real-world results.
Compliance mechanism promotion scenarios: Clearly publicize that all related applications are incorporated into the official frameworks of the United Nations DHoTS Digital Treasury Center, UNDP Alternative Finance Lab, and WFP "Building Blocks" program.
Technical rules popularization scenarios: Educate partners and relevant practitioners on settlement rules using only regulated fiat stablecoins like USD1, explaining the value of a fully auditable and traceable humanitarian ledger throughout the entire chain. Strategy's massive fundraising without purchasing any BTC, $1.59 billion cash hides signals
Recently, a key institutional signal emerged in the crypto market: from August 17 to 23, Strategy raised a net $2.01 billion by selling its own shares, without buying a single BTC during this funding cycle, completely breaking the previous pattern of fundraising followed by hoarding coins, drawing high market attention.
The company made a clear allocation of this huge fund: $300 million to replenish USD reserves, $136.4 million to repurchase STRC, and the remaining $1.59 billion placed separately into a new USD cash account. This fund is flexible and can be used at any time to increase BTC holdings, repay debt, distribute dividends, or repurchase shares, representing potential incremental buying power, but no concrete action has been taken yet.
As of now, Strategy still holds 840,447 BTC, with a position size close to 4% of the total Bitcoin supply, and an average holding cost of about $75,385, maintaining a strong asset base. In this market cycle, BTC has quickly rebounded from lows, currently quoted between $79,000 and $79,200, with a slight 24-hour increase, which is a suitable range for institutional accumulation, but its pause in buying coins is highly unusual.
The market has derived two core interpretations: one is that the company expects short-term price corrections and deliberately holds coins to wait for lower cost basis; the other is that the institutional strategy is undergoing a major shift, no longer blindly allocating all fundraising funds to BTC, but starting to optimize financial structure, emphasizing cash reserves, debt control, and equity stability, with a more rational investment pace.$ETH late-night rebound to $2,500: Up 31% this week, outperforming BTC, staked ETF surges 31% in five days
This week, it climbed from $1,900 all the way to $2,520, a weekly increase of 31.3%, leaving BTC's 23.6% gain behind by a wide margin. The most eye-catching data: Grayscale's staked ETH ETF rose another 3.56% today, accumulating +31.17% over five days. This surge itself reflects the market's pricing of the staking narrative.
The ETF inflow structure is changing. Last week, ETH ETF net inflows reached $697 million, the best single week since October 2025. Compared to BTC's $1.92 billion, the absolute amount is smaller, but relative to market cap, ETH's ETF capital attraction strength is twice that of BTC. Institutions are voting with their feet, and accelerating their votes.
Staking is the independent narrative for this ETH cycle. Fidelity's application to add staking functionality to the ETH ETF is still pending, allowing up to 100% holdings to be staked. Approval would mark the first compliant staking move. Coupled with 42M+ ETH locked in staking contracts and continuously declining exchange reserves, the circulating supply is getting tighter. When prices rise, there are no coins to sell; this is the fundamental logic behind ETH's greater elasticity compared to BTC in this cycle.
However, the technical side is already somewhat overextended. The stretch from $1,950 to $2,300 was basically a volume-light price surge, and the narrow range will eventually be retested. RSI previously hit 86, indicating extremely hot short-term sentiment. $2,545 is this week's high resistance; a breakout could target the $3,000 psychological level; a pullback to $2,300 is a high-probability event [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh lays it out straight: Don't have too high hopes for Waller.
This guy is scheduled to deliver his first keynote speech as Fed Chair on the evening of August 28 (Friday) at Jackson Hole. But the topic is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy"—clearly giving him room to dodge and weave.
He himself admits the speech is "a blank sheet of paper," and he hasn't decided whether to discuss the macro outlook or provide policy guidance. Barclays outright says he's unlikely to offer near-term policy guidance. Since taking office, he has advocated for a "quieter Fed," deliberately avoiding forward guidance—expecting him to give a clear path? Might as well expect the pyramid to grow an oasis on its own.
But the market can't wait! The 30-year Treasury yield once surged to 5.33%, the highest since 2007. Former Philadelphia Fed President Harker said bluntly: "Waller must respond directly to inflation"; Goldman Sachs also warned that vague communication will cause more volatile interest rates.
On Friday night, the market will most likely follow the script of "either triggering stop losses or sweeping short positions." Good trades are made by waiting, not by gambling. Waiting until Waller finishes speaking and the market digests it before making a move is a hundred times more solid than betting on direction. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't lose its way $UNITREE
The current market sentiment around UNITREE is quite unique, with the discourse on short video platforms overwhelmingly bearish. Opinions like "overvalued market cap" and "will fail within a few years" are spreading everywhere, and the pessimistic voices have become a consensus.
However, when the market shows such a highly uniform sentiment, it is precisely a moment worth our calm examination. If the company truly harbors significant fundamental risks, large investors would typically take precautionary actions in advance. At present, UNITREE has a very low proportion of circulating shares, with the vast majority of shares locked under restrictions, objectively limiting large-scale short-term selling pressure.
Of course, collective bearish sentiment does not imply any conspiracy; the medium- to long-term stock price trend is ultimately determined by real capital competition and the company's fundamentals. A small float is a double-edged sword: it can lead to rapid upward movement driven by capital, but it also amplifies downward volatility, causing sharp pullbacks with even slight selling pressure.
From an operational strategy perspective, compared to blindly chasing rallies during hot markets, patiently waiting for a pullback and then assessing the buying strength is more prudent. Even if a volume-driven surge occurs later, caution is necessary, as volume spikes are often accompanied by the risk of profit-taking at high levels, and one should not be easily swept up by short-term trends. Additionally, potential selling pressure from future unlocks and the progress of humanoid robot commercialization should be factored in. When trading small float stocks, position control is especially critical.
This information is compiled for reference and does not constitute investment advice.Concentration is decreasing, and chips are starting to loosen!
As of August 24, the highest chip peak — the accumulation at $63,000 — has dropped from a peak of 1.22 million coins to 980,000 coins;
while the nearby $62,000 bar shows little change, indicating that the short-term price rally has little impact on the chips here.
As we deduced in the possible future scenarios on August 21 (see quote): once chips start to loosen, the price will either stabilize or even pull back.
A new chip concentration area will then form. Because the price staying put provides an opportunity for turnover.
Now it seems the $76,000-$77,000 range has the potential to become a new chip concentration area (Figure 1).
In just 3 days, 320,000 BTC were added in this range.
At the same time, when BTC broke through to $77,000-$78,000,
there was a strong wave of profit-taking, the largest scale in nearly 6 months (Figure 2).
But even so, the price did not drop significantly.
Clearly, there is capital absorbing the supply here.
Assuming a new chip peak can really form near $76,000-$77,000, do you remember the "double anchor structure" theory?
Long-term followers of mine should be familiar with it. Once this structure forms, the subsequent BTC pullback is very likely to fall in the middle of the structure.
That is roughly around $68,000-$70,000.
So the question is simple: now it depends on whether the $76,000-$77,000 range can form a meaningful chip concentration area.
Yes! This requires a bit of time. From Sept. 9, longer-dated Treasury buyback operations will increase from $2B to at least $4B per operation through early November. This isn’t QE or a massive liquidity injection, but it could still help ease pressure in the long-end of the Treasury market. If yields respond lower, risk assets could get some breathing room — a potential tailwind for $BTC and $ETH . But I’d watch real yields and liquidity conditions before calling it bullish. For me, the key question is simple: does this translaOn-chain data is often more honest than any trading signal. Last night, the TRUMP project team's actions made many followers uneasy: they directly dumped 1.1 million TRUMP through unilateral liquidity, exchanging it for 2.94 million USDC, with an average transaction price of about $2.68. This was not a simple transfer but a real sell-off, indicating the team has started converting their holdings into stablecoins. What is even more noteworthy is that just the day before, the team had transferred 3.837 million TRUMP to OKX, estimated at nearly $9.33 million at the time. Coins entering exchanges often mean they could be dumped into the market at any time. These two operations combined send a clear signal: the project team is actively reducing their position risk rather than waiting for market sentiment to improve. From the on-chain structure perspective, this sell-off used unilateral liquidity, which usually impacts the market more directly and causes more noticeable slippage. The $2.68 transaction price is a significant pullback compared to previous market highs, indicating the sellers care less about short-term price and more about liquidity realization. This attitude itself makes long positions in the market more cautious. Meanwhile, the performance of the futures market also confirms this tension. In the past 24 hours, BTC liquidations across the network reached about $100 million, ETH even hit $140 million, and TRUMP single-day liquidations were $12.945 million, with large funds liquidated on both long and short sides Here's the situation: On August 24th, a purchase that looked very much like an "institutional statement" pushed Ethereum back into the spotlight. Tom Lee's Bitmine bought about $81 million worth of ETH in the past week, marking its largest weekly purchase since early July. What's even more interesting is that this purchase happened after Ethereum rose about 30% in a single week. Most people might think, "They only chased after the price went up; institutions are just catching the top?" But the logic behind the funds is often not that simple. If it were just short-term chasing, the purchase itself wouldn't be surprising. What’s truly worth observing is what Bitmine considers ETH to be: a trade or a long-term asset allocation. The former cares about whether the price will rise next week; the latter cares about whether Ethereum can become the second core entry point for institutional capital in the crypto market. This also reflects the recent shift in market narratives. Bitcoin moving first often indicates that capital is seeking certainty; continuous buying of Ethereum looks more like capital seeking resilience, ecosystem, and the next phase of growth. It's not about one replacing the other, but about market risk appetite expanding outward. Of course, institutional buying does not guarantee prices will only rise. The cost of buying, holding period, whether they continue to increase holdings, and the relative strength of ETH/BTC are all more important than a news headline. Especially after a rapid price increase, the market can easily interpret a concentrated purchase as trend confirmation, but it might just be a phase of rebalancing. I preferAdditionally, today I also took a small position in $GRASS.
The core logic of this trade is still the divergence observed earlier: volume and open interest are clearly rising, the contract CVD continues to decline, but the price does not follow the active sell orders down, indicating that selling pressure is being absorbed.
With the token unlocking approaching on the 28th, it is possible that some selling pressure comes from holders who unlock tokens and open short positions early to hedge. If these shorts cannot continue to push the price down, they might instead become fuel for a subsequent rally or short squeeze. Therefore, I will only maintain a small position during a potential rally before the unlocking and will execute the preset stop loss.Since early July, the BTC price has risen from about $60,000 to $78,000, an increase of approximately 30%. During the same period, market capital increased from $20.6 billion to $24.9 billion, nearing the high for this phase. It points out that unlike the price rise, the proportion of borrowed funds did not increase in sync. This indicator peaked on August 14 and has been declining since; even though BTC accelerated its rise after August 19, the leverage ratio has not significantly rebounded. It is believed that compared to a market driven by borrowed funds, the current capital structure is healthier; if BTC prices stagnate later and the proportion of borrowed funds rises again, it could become a risk signal to watch $BTC #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Today's review:
In the New York session, $BTC and $ETH each had one trade, one took profit, and one hit stop loss.
The BTC trade basically followed the pre-market plan. After the New York open, the price first swept down to clear liquidity at the internal low but did not fall back below the daily open; instead, it found support above the daily open. Seeing the rejection candle close, I chose to go long, and the price smoothly reached the previous high for profit-taking.
When BTC broke the previous high, ETH did not simultaneously break higher, and then two consecutive doji candles appeared at the high level. I believed the upward momentum was starting to weaken and that an SMT reversal might form between BTC and ETH, so I opened a short position on ETH.
The direction was indeed correct in the end, but the trade resulted in a stop loss.
Because I wanted to use a small stop loss to aim for a large move and try to get 2R, I placed the stop loss directly at the highest point of the New York session at that time. The price then swept up again, precisely hitting the stop loss before dropping steadily.
Reviewing this, the problem was not the SMT judgment but that I placed the stop loss too aggressively in pursuit of the 2R on paper.
$SNDK sharply dropped after today's open but then showed a clear V-shaped recovery. If it can maintain the current recovery before the close, there is a chance to form a long lower shadow daily candle today, indicating there is still support below. The original trading logic has not yet failed, so I will continue to hold this initial position.$BEAT Honestly, a slow decline is even more frustrating than a sharp drop. Holding a short position, watching it hover there day after day, neither going up nor down, I was too lazy to even check the market those days. But at that time, I realized one thing clearly: this slow grinding movement most likely means the bulls have really lost strength. If there were funds wanting to push it up, they would have acted already.
Then one night, suddenly a bearish candle smashed down, breaking the support level, releasing all the previous pressure at once. From 0.1363 down to 0.1276, a 63.82% drop is the reward for patience. This saying really hits home when applied to myself. That night, I didn’t rush to act; I just watched the market step by step go down, and strangely felt a sense of calm.
Many people in crypto don’t lose because of the direction they chose, but because they got shaken out during the grinding phase. The lesson this wave taught me is: as long as the original bearish reasons still hold, try to ignore the noise in between. Holding on is stronger than anything.
$BTC $XRP $SNDK experienced a sharp plunge today, dropping straight from 1628.69 down to 1516.90, a steep fall of 112 points, nearly 7%. Many were caught off guard. Here's an objective breakdown of the reasons behind this dive.
1. Concentrated Profit-Taking
SNDK started rising around 1560 on August 22, gaining over 4% in two days, accumulating significant short-term unrealized gains. The 1628 level was a previous resistance peak, where trapped positions and short-term profit-taking converged, creating selling pressure that triggered a rapid decline.
2. Drag from Overall Sentiment in the Storage Sector
The AI storage sector had seen substantial gains earlier, but market divergence began to appear, with signs of capital taking profits and exiting. Peers like Micron and SK Hynix weakened simultaneously, and sector-wide correlation caused quantitative passive selling to further amplify SNDK's pullback.
3. Sensitivity of High-Valuation Stocks
As a strong cyclical storage stock, its price is very sensitive to capital flows. Even without negative news, it can experience sharp rises and falls. When sentiment drives the price up, if the bulls fail to sustain momentum, a rapid and significant retracement can occur.
Key observation point is the 1500 support level. If it holds, it indicates high-level consolidation and shakeout; if it breaks decisively, short-term correction may deepen. High-level cyclical stocks are highly volatile, so position sizing and stop-loss management are crucial.
This information is shared for reference and does not constitute investment advice. $xSNDK SanDisk drops another 7% intraday: evaporates 16.8% in five days, $93.9 billion orders can't withstand earnings week selling pressure
Opened lower and dropped sharply, then narrowed losses. SanDisk opened lower today and fell all the way to $1,416, closing near $1,486, down 6.9%. A cumulative drop of 16.8% over five days, down 37% from the $2,354 high. But YTD it's still up 526%, with a market cap of $217.6 billion and a P/E of 20x. This is not a crash, but a sharp turnover after a surge.
Why the drop: a chain of de-risking during earnings week. NVDA reported earnings Wednesday, and the whole market reduced positions before the event. The storage sector was collectively hammered today, with SanDisk, Micron, and Hynix all hit. Coupled with last week's 30-year US Treasury yield approaching multi-year highs, the AI hardware sector, which is high valuation and capital expenditure dependent on cheap long-term money, took the brunt. Last week, the US stock market weekly chart ended a three-week rally, with the Nasdaq down 2.05%.
$93.9 billion orders locked in. Eight NBM long-term contracts, total value no less than $93.9 billion, average term about 4 years, covering half of capacity in FY2027 and two-thirds by FY2028. Musk specifically named storage as a core AI bottleneck, and Goldman Sachs predicts AI token consumption will increase 24-fold by 2030. On Xueqiu, some share long-term logic: locking capacity with long-term contracts is more important than profit surges because it eliminates the biggest uncertainty of the cycle.
Golden pit or trend top? Optimists say: P/E only 20x, $93.9 billion orders locked in as a floor, the pullback is a buying opportunity Fasset has secured $68 million in funding, reaching a valuation of $1 billion and successfully joining the unicorn ranks.
What’s interesting is not just the valuation.
Fasset is building a sector that could potentially surpass cryptocurrency trading itself: stablecoin cross-border payments.
Its proprietary network connects various banks, payment institutions, and liquidity providers. Meanwhile, the company plans to increase investment in AI banking services, stablecoin settlement, and tokenized asset sectors.
And the investor SBI is no ordinary financial backer.
This Japanese financial giant has long been deeply involved in digital assets, having invested in XRP’s underlying infrastructure, USDC issuer Circle, and the DeFi project $MORPHO. It has a presence across the entire crypto chain.
This tells me one thing: traditional big finance truly values not necessarily coin price speculation, but the real-world application of stablecoins in cross-border settlement.
Fasset has been profitable for 12 consecutive months, with an annualized trading volume exceeding $40 billion, covering 125 countries, and is no longer just a conceptual story. SBI’s continued investment represents Asian traditional financial institutions treating on-chain payments as the next generation of cross-border remittance.
Information shared does not constitute investment advice $BTC The focus of Bitcoin's bullish and bearish battles appears to be the candlestick pattern and capital flows, but what truly determines the long-term direction is often the broader underlying currency tone. In recent market discussions, a core variable that has often been overlooked has resurfaced: the certainty of currency depreciation triggered by the U.S. debt crisis is becoming a deeper logic suppressing bear confidence. This pressure does not come from single-day fluctuations but from an irreversible trend—when the purchasing power of fiat currencies continues to be diluted, scarce crypto assets naturally become one of the main sources of funds. From a market performance perspective, virtual assets tend to be the most sensitive to these types of expectations, with price discovery much faster than traditional financial markets. This is not because the crypto market is larger; on the contrary, it is precisely because of its strong global liquidity and continuous trading hours that it can be the first to factor macro expectations into pricing. However, it is worth noting that this "first rise" does not mean the global impact is the deepest. To some extent, the crypto market acts more like a mirror, preemptively reflecting the shadow of debt problems, and the real ripples will take time to spread to the broader real economy. If debt pressures are transmitted to commodities, especially food and energy markets, over longer cycles, the vulnerabilities of global supply chains will be further amplified. Rising crude oil prices drive up transportation and production costs, while food shortages may trigger chain reactions at the social level. This reasoning is not sensational, but rather a common path in historical credit currency system crises. When basic material prices spiral out of control and geopolitical frictions arise🔥 THE MONEY ISN’T LEAVING CRYPTO — IT’S MOVING.
This is what capital rotation looks like.
$BTC is holding strong. $ETH is starting to catch momentum. And now liquidity is searching for higher-beta opportunities like $ZEC and $HYPE.
The pattern is simple: BTC leads → ETH confirms → capital hunts for the next big outperformers.
The real question now isn’t if money is rotating.
It’s where does it rotate next?
#Crypto #BTC #ETHWipes1.1BShorts #BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500
#DailyOrbit $FLOW is up around 10% today while most of the market is barely moving. 👀
The bigger story: Flow recently raised transaction fees 2–4x while reducing new FLOW issuance as network usage covers more staking costs.
That gives today's breakout a real tokenomics angle — higher activity can mean less dilution.
Sustainable repricing, or another rotation trade?#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap #BTC Approaching $80,000, But What Really Matters This Round Is Not "How Much It Has Risen"
BTC's rebound has pushed from around $76,600 all the way to $79,998, running almost along the upper Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart.
However, I think the most important question now is not "can it break through $80,000," but rather—whether there is genuine incremental buying above $80,000.
From the market perspective, this rally is strong.
The price has climbed back above MA5, MA10, and MA20, with moving averages starting to form a bullish alignment; volume has increased in sync with the rise, indicating this is not just a low-volume retracement. The $79,000–$79,200 range has become the first layer of short-term support, and as long as this level is not broken again, the bullish structure remains intact for now.
The real resistance lies near $80,000.
This is both a psychological round number and the first obvious point of selling pressure after this rapid rise. BTC peaked at $79,998 before pulling back, showing that some profit-taking has started near $80,000.
But this time there is a clear difference from previous rebounds: spot ETF funds have returned.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days last week, totaling nearly $2 billion, which is a very important signal of institutional capital warming up recently. (Investopedia)
At the same time, this rally is not just coming from within the crypto market.
After the US Treasury adjusted long-term bond repo arrangements, long-term yields were suppressed, the dollar weakened, and the market resumed trading liquidity improvements; combined with short covering, BTC completed a very sharp valuation repair in a short time. (CoinDesk)
So I now divide the market into two stages:
The first half is liquidity expectation improvement + short squeeze;
The next stage is the real determinant of how far the trend can go—whether spot funds can continue to take over.
If BTC can break through $80,000 with volume and hold $79,000–$79,200 on the pullback, I would be more inclined to believe the market has moved from "oversold repair" into a new trend continuation phase.
But if ETF inflows continue and BTC still cannot effectively hold above $80,000, then caution should be heightened.
Because the most dangerous signal in a rally is never the absence of good news, but:
Good news remains, funds are still flowing in, but the price cannot move up.
Now $80,000 is not just a technical resistance level, but more like the market's first real test of the quality of this rally.
What do you think? Will BTC hold above $80,000 directly this time, or will it first have a deeper pullback before breaking through?
:::$BTC $KO Time Will Prove COCA-COLA: Truly Surviving Bull and Bear Markets, Listed for 107 Years
Truly surviving bull and bear markets, COCA-COLA has been listed for 107 years. Over the many years of the US stock market, more than 5,000 companies have been delisted. After the great sifting, only a handful of enterprises remain standing.
It has gone through the Great Depression, multiple financial crises, high inflation, war shocks, and waves of consumer trends, with countless once-glorious companies falling, yet COCA-COLA has survived and continues to generate returns for shareholders.
In the short term, the market always has various noises: executives exercising stock options and cashing out, debates over valuation being expensive or not, commodity price disturbances, consumption fluctuating across regions, causing stock prices to rise and fall. In Q2, profits grew 17%, outpacing revenue growth of 7%. The iteration of sugar-free products, volume growth in emerging markets, and asset-light cost reduction and efficiency improvements are the current fundamental supports; 64 consecutive years of dividend increases and continuous free cash flow are the solid foundation for enduring cycles.
Of course, it is not without risks. Weak consumption, rising raw material prices, and changing tastes of the new generation are ongoing challenges. A century-old company will not always rise, but a strong brand moat and global channels allow it to withstand round after round of market reshuffling.
Five thousand companies have been eliminated by the times, yet it remains center stage. Time will test the true value of this consumer leader.#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
I am Cige. The Jackson Hole annual meeting officially kicks off this week, and Wash's debut is the most critical variable for the entire market.
After the July FOMC, Wash did not provide clear policy guidance, and market doubts about transparency have been accumulating. In this speech, he must at least answer one question: what data is the Federal Reserve actually looking at to decide the next move? If he can't explain clearly, the market will continue to fluctuate in the fog of rate hike expectations. PCE, GDP revision, and durable goods orders will be released this week; these data will directly test whether inflation still has stickiness. Wash's speech will combine with these data to influence the market, rather than being priced alone.
BTC has repeatedly been resisted and fallen back near 79500 to 80000, currently oscillating around 77500. The market has already expressed its attitude toward the 80000 level through price, lacking the willingness to continuously chase higher. If Wash's speech is hawkish, 80000 may be the phase top of this rally, with a pullback target between 74000 and 75000. If dovish, breaking through 80000 will reopen the upside space.
The Jackson Hole speech is the most critical node this week. Before that, heavily betting on any direction is gambling. Wait for the boot to drop before acting, and follow up once the direction is clear. Cige has finished speaking; savor it. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
This week's real market test is not just Jackson Hole, but also NVIDIA's earnings report.
NVIDIA will announce its FY2027 Q2 results on August 26. Last quarter, the company’s revenue reached $81.6 billion, an 85% year-over-year increase; data center revenue was $75.2 billion, up 92% year-over-year. This means the market discussion is no longer about "whether AI demand is growing," but rather how long such massive capital investment can sustain a high growth rate. (NVIDIA Investor)
I believe there are three key points to watch in this earnings report.
First, whether AI computing power demand continues to exceed supply. Recently, NVIDIA has even partnered with institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, and Blackstone to promote over $500 billion in AI infrastructure financing, indicating the entire industry is still expanding, not contracting. (NVIDIA Investor)
Second, whether profit margins can be maintained. Now that AI server costs, memory prices, and data center construction costs are all rising, the market is no longer satisfied with just revenue growth; it is more concerned about how much profit this growth ultimately leaves behind.
Third, and most importantly—whether customers can truly make money from AI investments.
In the past two years, the market traded on "who owns the most GPUs." The next phase may trade on "who can convert these GPUs into cash flow."
This is also why I believe the AI market is entering its second phase:
Phase one validates the technology, phase two validates the demand, and phase three must ultimately validate the return on investment.
If NVIDIA’s earnings continue to significantly exceed expectations, the logic of AI capital expenditure can continue; but if growth remains strong yet the market is no longer willing to assign higher valuations, it may mean the core of AI trading has shifted from "growth speed" to "investment returns."
What truly deserves attention is not whether NVIDIA can continue to grow, but—
When will the AI industry start proving that these hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures are really worth it? Review of today's operations: August 25th, 21:00
First, at exactly 8 AM, the Korean stock market opened, and I shorted two positions of SK Hynix based on my logic.
The Korean market opened at 8 AM, following the trading strategy I shared last night. Since the memory sector had positive catalysts, I expected SK Hynix to open flat and then rise. However, after the opening, SK Hynix fluctuated downward for the first two to three minutes, indicating that even with positive news, it couldn't strengthen, which showed weak buying interest. This was a shorting opportunity. I expected SK Hynix to decline about 4% by the Korean market close. My shorting strategy was swing trading; I closed my position before the Korean market closed. Later, at 8:30 AM, with about 2% profit, I chose to exit because I anticipated a round of buying at that level. Then at 9 AM, SK Hynix rose 2%, so I opened a second short position, expecting a drop of about 3%. Around 10 AM, it dropped about 2%. I chose to take profits again, feeling I was close to my target price. At this point, I shouldn't be greedy—better to lock in gains first. Subsequent rises and falls no longer concerned me; I only trade what I understand. From 2:30 PM to 9:30 PM, I didn't understand the market, so I stayed on the sidelines, waiting for a high-probability signal to appear.Another late night $BTC touches 80,000!
Dalio calls to buy coins, Standard Chartered says $100K is conservative
Tonight's market is interesting. During the day, there was concern $77K wouldn't hold, but late at night $BTC directly pulled back to $78,948, up 2.3% in 24h. More importantly, volume — $48.6 billion, a 62% surge compared to before. This is not a low-volume rebound; real money is chasing.
Big players are lining up. Dalio posted that one should underweight bonds, allocate 10-15% to gold plus a "small amount" of Bitcoin, saying this can reduce risk and increase returns. This statement from the founder of the world's largest hedge fund carries more weight than ten analysts calling a buy. Standard Chartered's Kendrick is even more direct: the year-end $100K forecast "might be too conservative," and a push to the previous high of $126K before year-end is possible. Honestly, coming from a week of record short liquidations, this is worth considering.
Capital is passing the baton. Last week, ETF net inflows hit $1.92 billion, the highest since October last year; Coinbase premium turned positive and held; whales increased holdings by $2.75 billion over 60 days. This round from $62K to $79.5K is essentially driven by Besent expanding Treasury repos (QE Lite) plus short squeeze resonance. Now that the short squeeze fuel is mostly burned, future momentum depends on spot demand. The 62% volume increase is a good sign, but sustainability remains to be seen.
But don't get carried away. RSI is still in the overbought zone, about 37% away from the previous high of $126K, and this year has seen multiple rebounds fizzle out.#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
This year's Jackson Hole, what the market is really waiting for is not a "hawkish" or "dovish" statement, but whether Waller can provide a clearer policy path.
The situation the Fed faces now is actually very difficult to handle: on one side, inflationary pressures remain stubborn, with energy prices and geopolitical conflicts continuing to increase the risk of re-inflation; on the other side, the economy and employment are showing some signs of cooling. More critically, in the July FOMC, three members voted to support a 25bp rate hike, indicating that internal Fed divisions over "whether to tighten again" are widening.
The market has even started to reprice the risk of rate hikes.
So what I am most focused on in this speech is not whether Waller will directly say "a rate hike in September," but three questions:
First, how does he define the nature of current inflation — a temporary shock, or has it re-formed into a persistent pressure?
Second, will he continue to emphasize data dependence, or will he proactively increase the weight on inflation risks?
Third, and most importantly: will he give the market a clearer reaction function — what kind of data combination will truly trigger the next rate hike?
If Waller continues to remain vague, the short-term market may become even harder to navigate, because bonds, the dollar, U.S. stocks, and crypto markets will keep repricing around every set of data.
But if he clearly tells the market: if inflation does not fall back, continued tightening cannot be ruled out.
Then Jackson Hole could become a node for repricing monetary policy expectations in the second half of this year.
I believe the biggest risk now is no longer "whether to hike rates" itself, but whether the market has fully priced in a world of maintaining high interest rates for a longer time, or even further rate hikes.
What do you think — will Waller choose to stabilize market expectations this time, or use Jackson Hole to actively shake the market? $INJ /USDT is showing strong bullish momentum with buyers holding control.
Structure remains bullish above the 5.70 zone.
EP
5.70 – 5.75
TP
TP1 5.80
TP2 5.95
TP3 6.10
SL
5.60
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap Congressional holdings disclosures trigger short-term sentiment speculation, causing a sharp rise in attention to $BE and $INTC in the US stock market, but the lag in disclosure timing and the risk of buying at high levels form a core contradiction.
Holdings disclosures bring $15 million-level purchases into the public eye, and momentum-chasing funds quickly boost risk appetite, leading to highly concentrated short-term speculative positions in $BE and $INTC.
The driving factors, in order, are: retail preference recovery triggered by political figures' holdings, macro inflation expectations suppressing capital expenditures in clean energy and semiconductors, and institutional willingness to absorb the lagging disclosed information.
Bullish scenario: If market risk appetite continues to expand and macro inflation data does not exceed expectations, chasing funds will absorb the selling pressure from the disclosure lag period, pushing prices to break upward. At this time, the net inflow rate of retail funds needs to be observed; if the single-day net inflow drops by more than 30%, the bullish logic is invalidated.
Bearish scenario: If inflation rebounds delay rate cut expectations, high-risk appetite funds will first withdraw from policy dividend expectation stocks, and the $15 million-level concentrated positions will face liquidity squeeze. At this time, institutional funds' risk-hedging rotation actions need to be observed; if the rotation scale expands for two consecutive days, the bearish logic is confirmed.
An 88.4% historical win rate sample cannot hedge price adjustments during the disclosure window; if the overall market pullback leads to liquidity tightening, the sentiment premium brought by political chips will quickly dissipate.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are institutional holding changes in $BE and $INTC and the transmission direction of macro inflation data.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%Final push
Bitcoin is approaching the 80000 mark. Whether it can hold this level is not just about tonight but crucially depends on the US stock market opening tomorrow morning.
The weekend spike cleaned out all the leverage, making the rally smoother with a lighter load. But the 80000 round number is more psychological than technical; the real resistance lies in the 81500-82000 trapped zone. Holding above 80000 tonight only means bulls are temporarily in control. To break through to 100000, the Federal Reserve must ease, otherwise it's all in vain. My judgment: the trend is upward with fluctuations, but don't chase the highs. Waiting for a pullback to 78500-79000 to enter long positions is safer than betting on a breakout.
Ethereum is really strong this round; 2500 feels as fragile as paper.
It surged from 2400 straight to 2500 with almost no pullback. I think the previous high at 2600 will be broken. The logic is simple — the exchange rate bottomed successfully around 0.032, and funds are starting to flow out of Bitcoin into altcoins, a typical mid-bull market characteristic. I placed a long order at 2450, waiting for a pullback to enter, targeting 2650.
BICO has been oscillating around 0.018 for almost two weeks, with low volume and sideways movement. Investing in something without capital attention is like giving away money; shorting on rallies is the right approach. Hynix and SanDisk, the storage sector overall is adjusting. Hynix's short-term weakness is an industry factor; strategy-wise it's fine but don't over-allocate.
BNB and OKB having independent rallies is not a bad thing. Platform tokens strengthening means funds are still in the market, just not flowing back into Bitcoin.
Finally, a word: crypto moving on its own logic is good. Constantly watching US stocks for trades will only get you slapped back and forth Today's market underwent a noteworthy change. Before the US stock market opened on August 24, traditional markets were under pressure, but the crypto market did not follow the weakening trend and instead continued its upward trend. Currently, $BTC is trading around $76,000–$78,000, with intraday trading close to $79,000; $ETH is holding steady in the $2,350–$2,480 range. This indicates that current crypto market buying may no longer rely solely on US stock risk appetite, and capital sentiment remains somewhat independent. Combined with recent continuous inflows into spot BTC and ETH ETFs, institutional demand remains an important support for the market. Therefore, it may be too early to directly judge that this rebound has ended. Next, I will focus on several short-term catalysts: 📌 whether BTC can hold above $79,000 📌, whether ETH can break through $📌 2,500, whether BTC and ETH ETF funds continue to maintain net inflows 📌, whether capital further rotates from mainstream assets to AI, RWA, and some high-beta altcoins, and whether the rebound can evolve into a larger trend depends on whether funds can continue to enter the market, rather than just looking at one or two candlesticks #BTC #ETH #Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #DailyOrbit#BTC fluctuates after rally, ETF funds continue to flow in #ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500 #ETH surges 30% in a week, entering a turnover phase after a sharp rise⚡
This round of ETH's explosive power clearly surpasses Bitcoin, rising from 1900 all the way to 2550, with a maximum weekly increase close to 30%. However, after the rally, momentum weakened, quickly falling back to around 2400 after touching 2550, a typical short-term excessive gain where the market needs to shake out and digest profit-taking.
The data is very convincing: last week ETH rose 29.8%, higher than BTC's 22.9%; on August 19, a single-day surge of 17.5%, jumping directly from 1917 to above 2250, the strongest rally since mid-April. The ETH/BTC rate rebounded to 0.031, a clear signal that incremental funds are flowing out from Bitcoin to altcoin leaders like Ethereum.
This rally is the result of three positive factors resonating:
First, Ethereum spot ETF net inflow of $697 million in one week, with institutional funds continuously entering;
Second, shorts liquidated $1.69 billion over three days, large-scale forced liquidations created a short squeeze effect, further boosting the market;
Third, US Treasury repos suppressed long-term yields, weakening the dollar, improving the overall risk asset environment.
On-chain supply also tightened, with ETH supply on exchanges down 15% in one month, total staking surpassing 42 million, and circulating sell pressure continuously decreasing.
The 2550 level failed to hold mainly due to severe technical overbought conditions. The daily RSI peaked at 86, price deviated 5.5% above the upper Bollinger Band, short-term chasing risks sharply increased, so funds naturally started to take profits and exit.
Key subsequent trading ranges:
Resistance above at 2440-2510; only by breaking and holding volume here can there be a chance to retest 2550 and then target 2750;
Core support below at 2210-2130; a valid break below this range would weaken the short-term strong structure.
Short term is very likely to oscillate between 2400-2500 for consolidation.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
#ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500$KO 3. Solid dividend attributes, with dividends increased for 64 consecutive years. The latest quarterly dividend is $0.53 per share, with the dividend payment executed on October 1. Cash flow is abundant, providing stable cash returns to long-term shareholders.
4. Strong growth in emerging markets, with Asia-Pacific single-unit sales up 8% year-over-year. China and India markets have become global core growth drivers; sugar-free products continue to explode, with global sugar-free cola sales up 16%, and product mix optimization continuously raising gross margin levels.
From a signal perspective, single executive option exercises and sales have no substantial impact on the company's fundamentals. COCA-COLA's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with multiple brokerages raising target prices. The company's operations remain stable. Going forward, the key focus should be on whether there is large-scale voluntary reduction of holdings by board members and CEO-level executives, as that would be a more concerning signal.The last time BTC saw such a strong rebound, the real bottom is actually yet to come. Looking back at 2022, BTC quickly rebounded from around $19K to $22K+, with the market once believing the worst phase was over, but then dipped again and finally completed a true bottom confirmation near the $15K–$16K range. ETH also experienced a similar trend at the time. Now, as we move into 2026, the market is once again showing a similar structure worth watching: ₿ BTC: Quickly rebounded from around $60K, briefly surging toward $79K–$80K ETH: Rebounded from around $1.9K and is now back above the $2.4K area. But this time, there are some key factors that differ from the past. Recently, BTC spot ETF funds have flowed back into the market, recording a net inflow of about $1.6B+ last week, with institutional funds re-entering the market. Another variable worth watching is MSTR (Strategy). The company recently disclosed that it holds approximately 840,447 BTC in BTC and recently raised about $2B through equity financing, but has not yet continued to buy BTC. The market is watching: if MSTR resumes large-scale buying, could it become a catalyst for the next stage of the rally? So the real question isn't: "Will BTC and ETH continue to rise?" Rather: This rebound is just a strong pullback in a bear market, or is it institutional funds or ETFs? At 2 AM, gold has already sounded the alarm: Is BTC really in danger this time? 🚨
At 2 AM tonight, the US will announce the "strictest ever" sanctions plan against Iran. Just at this moment, gold has surged to a three-month high, as the market is pre-pricing the upcoming inflation and Federal Reserve policies.
What really needs caution is this chain:
Sanctions exceed expectations → crude oil rises → inflation pressure heats up again → Fed rate cut expectations cool down → BTC/ETH come under pressure.
Iran has also issued a tough warning: if the economic war escalates, it may restrict oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Interestingly, oil prices actually fell more than 1% today. This looks like a typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario—the market may have already priced in some of the negative news.
So next, there are two scenarios to watch:
🔴 Sanctions really escalate: oil prices soar again, inflation worries rise, BTC/ETH may continue to be under pressure.
🟢 Sanctions fall short of expectations: negative news is priced in, bearish sentiment releases, BTC might actually see a short-term rebound.
More importantly, this week also has PCE data + Powell's speech.
Gold is already telling the market: funds are seeking safe havens.
But BTC hasn’t followed, which is actually a warning sign.
From tonight until the data releases this week, volatility may significantly increase.
Don’t rush to bet on direction; wait for the market to give the answer.
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit After the rise, the most easily overlooked risk often comes from sudden changes in the macro environment
BTC quickly surged from around $64,000 to the $79,000 range, rising more than 15,000 points in a short time, with market sentiment clearly heating up. But when the price enters a high-level range, investors need to pay attention to one question:
Can the funds driving the rise continue to take over?
Recently, new uncertainties have appeared in the market
Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated again, and related sanctions may increase volatility in the energy market. If rising oil prices push inflation expectations back up, the Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts may be affected.
For risk assets:
Rising inflation pressure → declining rate cut expectations → slowing liquidity improvement → pressure on high-valuation assets.
This is also the logic that short-term BTC needs to be wary of.
On the other hand, ETF fund inflows have indeed provided support to the market. Recently, BTC spot ETFs have continuously seen net fund inflows, indicating institutional demand is recovering.
Current key BTC focus:
Resistance:
$78,000-$80,000 range.
Support:
Around $75,000.
Stay calm when rising, be patient during pullbacks.
The market always rewards those with a plan, not the most aggressive. $BTC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $SNDK Tonight's situation with SanDisk can be understood as: in the short term, it is being "stepped on" by industry negative news, but the company's long-term logic and institutional attitude have not fundamentally reversed.
This pressure mainly comes from external concerns, rather than problems within the company itself.
The trigger for tonight's market: a sudden external negative impact
The most direct reason is a report from The Wall Street Journal stating that nine major tech giants carry about $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI-related commitments. The market worries that if these tech giants cut AI infrastructure spending in the future, storage chip stocks like Micron and Western Digital, which heavily rely on AI demand, will be impacted, dragging down SanDisk as well, with a single-day drop exceeding 5% at one point.
At the same time, some industry research points out that SanDisk and Kioxia's NAND technology lags behind competitors like Micron and Samsung in generational terms, intensifying short-term profit-taking sentiment.$BTC: The overall trend remains upward, but in the short term, it is in a "calm before the storm" phase—both bulls and bears are watching and waiting for a clear directional signal.
Current situation: High-level "consolidation," is it gathering strength or running out of steam?
After failing to break through $80,000, Bitcoin has entered a high-level consolidation. The current price is just above the key moving average (MA7), indicating strong consolidation. Behind this are two competing forces:
· Optimistic side (supporting forces):
1. Institutional inflows continue: In the past week, ETF net inflows exceeded $1.9 billion, and "whales" have been continuously accumulating, indicating that large funds have not retreated.
2. Favorable macro environment: A weakening dollar and the "currency devaluation trade" logic still provide bottom support for Bitcoin.
· Cautious side (suppressing forces):
1. "Fear of heights" sentiment: $80,000 as a psychological barrier carries heavy selling pressure; after the first failed attempt, the market needs time to digest.
2. Lack of new catalysts: No major policy or news stimuli in the short term, reducing the willingness of funds to chase higher prices.