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Meta Vaults of Term Finance suffered a governance attack on August 23. On-chain data and security teams estimate that about 2,843 ETH and 1.68 million USDC were transferred, totaling approximately $8.5 million, accounting for roughly 68% of the assets before these vault attacks. Term Labs subsequently permanently closed Meta Vaults' deposit portals and revoked related governance privileges, but allowed withdrawals; The team stated that the underlying lending market has not yet been affected. What makes this incident special is that the attacker did not seem to bypass inspections through traditional contract vulnerabilities, but instead secured enough governance votes. On-chain observers believe that voting rights are highly concentrated or sparse, and after the attacker gains a majority, they propose to gain control of the treasury. Term Labs has not yet released a complete review, so the exact method of obtaining it should still be subject to the official final conclusion. The issue is not whether the contract executed the voting results. Instead, contracts may be executed as designed. The real imbalance is the price of authority: if the cost of buying governance control is less than the asset that authority can mobilize, rational attackers will treat the vote as a purchase. Audit code can only confirm how rules operate and cannot replace checks on governance thresholds, vote distribution, and economic incentives. High-risk operations cannot rely solely on the "majority of voters." More robust designs require setting a sufficiently high quorum for total supply, allowing proposals to enter a time lock and allowing for independent securityBitcoin and Ethereum have once again become the focal points of capital inflows in the recent market, with BTC briefly reaching $79,500 and ETH climbing back above the $2,500 mark. 📈 However, beneath this seemingly warming market, altcoins have shown clear divergence in performance. Tokens like H, LAB, KAITO, BEAT, and SNDK remain weak and have failed to keep pace with mainstream assets. This round of gains is not a broad rally but rather a concentration of funds flowing into large-cap assets. From the spot market perspective, altcoins overall face liquidity shortages and insufficient buying support, with some projects also burdened by pressures on their token supply side, making it difficult for their prices to gain effective uplift even as mainstream assets strengthen. The structural divergence within the market tells the story more clearly than index-level figures. Notably, capital flow data also confirms this trend. Spot ETFs for BTC and ETH attracted a combined net inflow of about $2.6 billion over the past week, a significant amount in the recent market. Institutional preference for leading assets is reshaping the market's risk appetite structure in a very direct way. For ordinary participants, this selective rotation of funds means that opportunities are more concentrated in a few key assets. Given the current landscape, rather than expecting a so-called altcoin season with widespread gains, it is more pragmatic to observe the rotation rhythm of funds between mainstream assets and select quality projects. The market has not yet entered a phase of comprehensive risk release, nor has it#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level?
Woke up to $BTC at 80,000, but I don't dare to chase it anymore.
Last night before bed it was 79,000, thinking maybe it could hit 80,000 tomorrow. Turns out it really did hit 80,000.
This wave pulled from 64,000 to 81,280, gaining 25% in a week. Shorts got liquidated for 4 billion dollars, $ETH saw inflows of 1.92 billion in a week, plus the Treasury doubled its bond buybacks, the dollar weakened, and money flowed into BTC.
But honestly, I'm a bit hesitant at this level. There are about 100 million dollars in sell orders stacked near 80,000. On Friday at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Powell will speak for the first time; if dovish, it could keep rising, if hawkish, it might crash back to 73,000. As of August 25, 2026, the "$2 trillion" valuation surrounding Anthropic's IPO is not the company's official target but an expectation released to the media by investment institutions. This article reviews the exact source, supporting logic, and risks behind this figure for readers' independent judgment. 1. First, clarify the source: Who said the $2 trillion? Around August 13, 2026, Fortune and Financial Times reported that six Anthropic investors told FT they expect Anthropic to seek a valuation of $2 trillion or even higher in its IPO around October 2026. There are three key facts to emphasize here: 1. This is an investor's expectation, not a company's guidance. FT's report clearly points out that even Anthropic executives have not yet determined the IPO valuation range even in private; this figure is entirely driven by "investor rumor mill." 2. Expectations are inflating rapidly. When Anthropic secretly submitted its IPO filings to the U.S. SEC on June 1, 2026, the market generally expected a valuation of about $1 trillion, roughly in line with its private equity valuation; just over two months later, investor prices had doubled. #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold?
The leader has something to say
Every day is a new high!
BTC really stood above 80,000.
Last night, I entered at 78,130 and exited at 79,500 during the live stream. This morning when I woke up, it went straight above 80,000. This short squeeze started from 64,000, pushing to 80,000 in two weeks, leaving shorts scattered everywhere.
The significance of 80,000
This is a psychological barrier. For retail investors, 80,000 is an integer milestone after breaking out from the 60,000 consolidation zone, which will attract more watchful funds to enter. For institutions, 80,000 is a trigger point for position rebalancing, bringing new allocation demands. The key is not just reaching 80,000, but whether it can hold. The volume after the US stock market opens tonight will provide the first verification signal.
Last week's ETF data supports this level
The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, the largest single-week inflow in nearly 10 months. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for a large proportion. Institutions are not here for short-term speculation; they are confirming the direction with real money.
Pressure is also accumulating
The profit ratio of short-term holders has risen, and inflows on trading platforms have started to increase, indicating some are selling. Around 80,000, there is a large amount of profit-taking and trapped positions exchanging hands, so volatility will not be small. Whether it can hold depends on two things: whether spot trading volume can continue to expand, and whether 80,000 can turn from resistance into support.
Critical events are concentrated
Wednesday's PCE, Friday's speech by Waller at Jackson Hole, plus Nvidia's earnings report. Any unexpected outcome from these three could trigger major volatility. If PCE is moderate, Waller is not hawkish, and Nvidia exceeds expectations, 80,000 will be a new starting point. If any one of these disappoints, a pullback to 75,000-76,000 is also normal.
Trading strategy
$BTC $ETH $SOL
All long positions in BTC and Ethereum were closed last night, locking in profits. After breaking 80,000, do not chase the rally; wait for a pullback confirmation. Re-enter once the 75,000-76,000 range holds steady. Do not chase if you missed the move; wait for the right position.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.Abraxas Capital's two related addresses continue to see expanding unrealized losses on short positions in $BTC, $ETH, $HYPE, and $SOL. Specifically:
- 0x5b5d…c060: 4 short positions with a total unrealized loss of $58.26 million, including an ETH short position valued at $125 million, with a single unrealized loss of $22.02 million.
- 0xb83d…6e36: 4 short positions with a total unrealized loss of $55.92 million; BTC, ETH, and HYPE shorts have unrealized losses of $19.16 million, $16.92 million, and $15.66 million respectively.
These 8 major short positions across the two addresses have a combined unrealized loss of $114 million.
More notably, from August 21 to now, these two addresses have only added to their short positions in BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE without closing any positions, and currently have no open orders, showing no clear signs of retreat.
In contrast, BobbyBigSize has begun actively reducing positions: during the same period, the four assets have realized losses of $7.83 million. He still holds 27,241 ETH short positions valued at $68.63 million, with an unrealized loss of $14.66 million.
Whale address: 0x5b5d51203a0f9079f8aeb098a6523a13f298c060 $BTC This time, it really broke through $80,000. At the time of writing, the price was still around $80,800, with an intraday high of $80,957. On August 18, it was only hovering around $64,200, up nearly 26% in a week. This is no longer the usual small rebound. Seeing such a big bullish candlestick, many people's first reaction is definitely that the bull market is back. I wasn't in a hurry to stamp it, because a single bullish candlestick only shows that buyers have been in a hurry these past few days. It can't guarantee anything for the market going forward. At times like this, positions tend to get too excited and over-increase. But this time can't simply be called a pull; there is indeed money buying behind the scenes. Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.92 billion, the strongest week in nearly 10 months. On August 20 alone, $606 million was inflowed—much more substantial than the buying calls on social media. In the first half of the rally, bears also helped out on their own. The market has been worn down at low levels for too long, with more and more positions betting on selling. Once prices break through resistance, stop-losses and forced liquidations force them to buy back, so the market expands faster and faster, making it seem like no one can stop it. The US Treasury is expanding long-term Treasury repurchases, prompting the market to reconsider liquidity. This money isn't directly used to buy Bitcoin; it changes expectations about whether liquidity will loosen later. Those who previously didn't dare to touch risk assets have started to recover, and with short covering, this bullish candlestick is pushed even higher. Spot and ETF buyingAfter $BTC broke through the psychological barrier of $80,000, the core market conflict lies in the risk appetite expansion expected from the vote on the Clarity Act on September 15, versus the potential squeeze on high positions due to the stability of U.S. Treasury yields.
Currently, the market shows a divergence between native funds being bullish and traditional funds reducing positions on rallies. Conservative holders anchor their ideal buying range between $65,000 and $70,000, while the bulls' target has pointed to $90,000.
In terms of driving factors, the progress of the Congressional vote on the Clarity Act ranks first, followed by the sustainability of ETF inflows, with the stability of the U.S. Treasury environment serving as the fundamental fuel ensuring the security of the capital chain.
The bullish scenario requires the bill to pass and ETF net inflows to remain strong. At this point, risk appetite will be activated, pushing prices up to $90,000. However, if U.S. Treasury yields spike abnormally, this bullish logic will immediately fail.
The bearish scenario corresponds to volatility in U.S. Treasuries or obstacles in advancing the bill. Profit-taking at high levels will trigger short-term shakeouts, with prices retreating to test the $65,000 support level. If ETFs continue large counter-trend inflows, the downtrend will end.
A signal that the main thesis has failed will be the capital movement during the October window after the midterm elections. If Bitcoin cannot maintain independent liquidity during the U.S. stock market adjustment, the optimistic bottom rebound hypothesis needs to be reassessed.
In the next 7 days, key observations include changes in U.S. Treasury yields, daily ETF net inflow magnitude, and shifts in Congressional sentiment before the September 15 bill vote.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估BTC touched $81.3k, current price about $80.7k. Retail investors are asking if it can hold steady; the whales are asking—who is buying above 80k. BTC surged to $81.3k during the day, now around $80.7k. The whole community is buzzing with "breaking 80k." Let me look at it from another angle: if I were a whale, what I care about most is not the price increase, but whether this phase is about shifting chips to stronger hands or unloading to those chasing the rally. First, look at the structure. In the past six months, about 110 trading days closed below 80k; in the last 60 days, only once did the close stand above 80k. A 7-day rise of about 24%. Touching the threshold is easy, holding it steady is precious. In plain language: today's bullish candle looks more like a "test and handover," not yet a "new platform confirmation." Next, look at real buy orders. Public data: US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $1.92B last week, the strongest week in nearly 10 months—this is the spot buying whales like. On the futures side, OI is about $2.3B, up 10% in 7 days, fees only +0.01%. Some are adding positions, but retail investors haven't fully crowded the longs yet. With this combination, a breakout can continue; once OI increases alone and spot volume shrinks, above 80k will become a distribution zone. The yellow line is 80k. The shaded area below is the main battlefield of the past six months. Touching and holding steady are two different trades. ETFs are real buying; stable fees indicate the community hasn't maxed out positions. What whales fear most is the latter suddenly catching up—that's when volatility truly begins. Holding$CORE CORE Banking Business Expansion
CORE has been advancing the implementation of institutional and banking business, aiming to deliver BTC‑Fi capabilities to traditional financial institutions: banks, licensed asset managers, trusts, enabling traditional institutions to access Bitcoin staking and native BTC programmability-related services, which is the much-discussed "CORE Banking Institutional Edition" in the market.
Current Progress
1. Technical Layer
The development of the institutional edition's underlying modules and interface adaptation has been completed; Hashi-related technical prototype verification has passed, allowing native BTC to be used as programmable collateral and providing technical capabilities to B-end clients.
2. Business Coordination
Completed the conclusion of business coordination in South Korea, continuously engaging with licensed institutions in the Asia-Pacific and overseas; conducting intention meetings with banks and asset management institutions, delivering a POC demonstration version of the solution.
3. Wallet Entry Side
Mainstream wallets like Rabby have completed adaptation, lowering the access threshold for ordinary users and indirectly accumulating an ecological foundation for subsequent B-end business.
Key Unresolved Bottlenecks (Real-world Constraints)
1. Compliance Licenses
Bank-level cooperation cannot bypass local regulatory and compliance frameworks; intention meetings ≠ formal contracts, POC prototypes ≠ official commercial launch.
2. On-chain Real Fund Verification
Although the technology is operational, there has been no sight of large-scale real institutional funds entering; TVL and institutional deposit data have yet to reflect banking business results.
3. Narrative and Reality Time Lag
Technology is feasible and business talks are ongoing, but there is a long time window before banks officially launch CORE-related services externally. This is also the "narrative-to-implementation time lag" mentioned previously by the community as one of CORE's triple constraints.
Key Metrics to Monitor Going Forward (To Judge Whether the Business Is Truly Operational)
✅ Positive Signals: Official cooperation announcements, institutional contract news; large institutional BTC deposits appearing on-chain; institutional edition mainnet officially open to the public.
⚠️ Falsification Signals: Prolonged stay at POC or intention framework stage, with no actual funds or deployed products seen.
Important Reminder: Banking business expansion is a medium- to long-term narrative; positive impacts may not immediately reflect in the token price, and there will be repeated sharp fluctuations in between. Position sizes must be controlled, and blind faith rejected.
#CORE #BTC‑Fi #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Core Scientific has also signed a long-term HPC agreement with CoreWeave, shifting part of its power infrastructure to run AI computing tasks.
Using electricity from Bitcoin mining farms, Schiff sees competition, while miners see a new $19 billion revenue source. The electricity and facilities held by miners are being repriced.
In the past three quarters, listed mining companies have collectively reduced their computing power by 21%—not stopping operations, but freeing up electricity for AI use. A mining company with AI contracts is valued by the market at a multiple of 12.3, while pure mining companies are valued at only 5.9. The market has already voted with its price. $BTC Official Release of tBTC Institutional Version: Technical Interfaces Connected, Capital Inflow Pending On-Chain Verification
CORE lstBTC Institutional Version officially released, achieving technical integration with leading crypto custodians BitGo, Copper, and Hex Trust.
This news quickly spread across the community, with many interpreting it as a signal that large institutional BTC inflows will immediately flood the ecosystem.
However, in the crypto industry, product release and interface integration are completely different stages from actual institutional capital deployment and business operation; they should not be conflated.
I. Established Objective Facts
1. The lstBTC institutional product development is complete, with technical integration finalized with top custodians and publicly announced. Institutions now have the technical capability to stake BTC and mint lstBTC within the existing custody framework.
2. Addresses a core institutional pain point: BTC assets do not need to leave the custodian to participate in BTC-Fi staking for yield, completing the ecosystem’s product puzzle for B2B clients.
3. This marks an important milestone in the CORE BTC-Fi roadmap.
II. Realistic Boundaries to Consider
1. Technical integration completed ≠ Custodians have opened this service to their institutional clients.
Interface connection means technical readiness only; custodians still need to complete internal risk control, compliance review, and product listing processes before offering it to their asset management and fund clients. The project-side announcement does not mean commercial availability to end institutional clients.
2. Currently, the vast majority of on-chain staked BTC comes from retail users; no large-scale or bulk lstBTC minting records from custodians have been observed.
Theoretically, the potential market is large, but potential scale does not equal existing on-chain supply. Future growth must be verified by on-chain data.
3. Even if institutional BTC staking scales up, the protocol’s revenue conversion mechanism into CORE token buyback and burn is still in the planning stage.
Institutional business growth benefits the entire BTC-Fi narrative; however, increased business volume does not automatically or directly translate into rigid token value capture.
4. Competition in the sector objectively exists; similar solutions like Babylon are also competing for custodians and institutional clients, and institutions have diverse choices.
III. Three Verifiable Signals to Track (Rely on Objective Evidence, Not News)
① Large-scale lstBTC minting on-chain, corresponding to incremental BTC staking at the thousand-coin level;
② Custodians themselves issue announcements officially opening lstBTC financial services to their institutional clients;
③ Protocol revenue buyback mechanism is actually executed on-chain, not just documented or roadmap-planned. #Today's post is to settle accounts. On Day 1, I said I would publicly verify a hypothesis; on Day 2, I fixed an ops bug and restarted; today the first real settlement data came out—not backtesting, not a PPT, but the bot running each trade one by one according to the simulation rules I set.
First, the numbers (paper account $200, no real money moved):
Settled 66 trades, all NO wins
Tail losses: 0 trades
Realized PnL: +$70.85
Principal 200 → 270.85, about +35%
There are still 13 open trades waiting for settlement, with a total of 79 maker orders placed
In plain language: 66 "market thinks unlikely to happen" events, none happened. Trump signing an agreement with Greenland? No. Musk rejoining the cabinet? No. Comey arrested? No. SNL winning an Emmy? No. All the "Yes" I sold didn’t come true, so I got the premium for free.
But I have to pour cold water on myself. Winning 66/66 sounds great, but it also means one thing: during this period, there was no "tail event"—the rare event actually happening. The backtest tail probability is about 0.46%, so for 66 trades, expected tail events ≈ 0.54 trades. Having none is luck, not skill. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 8.25 BTC: Following the trend is the only way out
Still bullish on BTC
Also, I took a short position yesterday and got a piece, so I wanted to take another today but unexpectedly got stopped out hard
Previous profits gave me confidence, but only strict discipline can preserve that confidence
Grab when you can, leave when you should. This is not speculation, it's respect for the market
May everyone find their own certainty within the volatile candlesticks. Don't be greedy, don't cling to fights; only by going with the flow of the trend can you swim further
Guard your heart with Kun, act with benevolence and wisdom to go far. Steady trading—Kun Ren $BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH $BONK Nvidia's one trillion dollars have entered the crypto marketAfter surpassing $80,000, the most common mistake is to treat the breakout as a permission to enter. The public quote is about $80,638, with $BTC up 4.1% in 24 hours; $ETH around 2,507, and $SOL about 100.9, the latter still rising faster.
CryptoGodJohn's original judgment remains bullish, believing that spot buying can continue to push prices higher before a larger pullback. This direction can be observed, but I am more concerned whether it can accept a retracement rather than just looking at a single upward breakout line.
My contrarian personal observation is: I will not chase longs above 80,000. Only after a retracement and a renewed hold above 80,000, or a volume-driven close remaining above it, is it worth considering the strength as continuing; once it falls back below the threshold, the short-term chasing logic fails first, and I will shift my focus to support and position control.
Will you wait for confirmation of the 80,000 retracement, or place more emphasis on volume expansion after the breakout? This is just a market record and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC has broken through 80,000!! Currently at 80,906, +2.44% in 24 hours, up 20% in a week.
In a strong bull market, the biggest mistake is to assume every rebound must be followed by a pullback.
In this rally from 58,151, every "should drop" prediction has been proven wrong by the market. The Treasury bond repo doubled to $4 billion per session, ETFs raised 1.9 billion in a week—the strongest weekly inflow this year, and shorts liquidated 3.1 billion in two days. Trump is pushing the CLARITY Act, with a vote in September. Any one of these points alone could be discussed for days.
But the RSI has already reached the overbought zone of 78-86, and there is a large amount of break-even positions stacked in the 74,000-78,000 range. 80,000 is a psychological barrier; holding above it means a new platform, failing to hold means a double top.
I’d rather keep my position and let the market prove me wrong than keep guessing where the pullback should happen.
If I knew that in the long run Bitcoin would rise to 150,000, then holding now would still be profitable After surpassing $80,000, the most common mistake is to treat the breakout as a permission to enter. The public quote is about $80,638, with $BTC up 4.1% in 24 hours; $ETH around 2,507, and $SOL about 100.9, the latter still rising faster.
CryptoGodJohn's original judgment remains bullish, believing that spot buying can continue to push prices higher before a larger pullback. This direction can be observed, but I am more concerned whether it can accept a retracement rather than just looking at a single upward breakout line.
My contrarian personal observation is: I will not chase longs above 80,000. Only after a retracement and a renewed hold above 80,000, or a volume-driven close remaining above it, is it worth considering the strength as continuing; once it falls back below the threshold, the short-term chasing logic fails first, and I will shift my focus to support and position control.
Will you wait for confirmation of the 80,000 retracement, or place more emphasis on volume expansion after the breakout? This is just a market record and does not constitute investment advice. #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%
The semiconductor sector collectively plunged—is AI peaking or is smart money quietly exiting?
The semiconductor sector fell across the board last week, with Micron plummeting 5.8%, NVIDIA ($NVDA) dropping nearly 2.9%, Broadcom ($AVGO) falling over 2%, dragging the Nasdaq down 0.76%. Many panicked at the chip stocks' sharp decline: is the AI party really over?
Don't rush to scare yourself. This pullback has nothing to do with fundamentals; it's purely institutions reducing risk ahead of NVIDIA's earnings "draw" after market close on 8/26.
Interestingly, the usual explanation for tech stock declines—"rising yields"—failed this time. On that day, the 10-year US Treasury yield actually fell about 4 basis points due to Treasury's possible bond buyback news. Despite lower funding costs that should favor high-valuation sectors, chip stocks still closed down collectively, proving this sell-off is simply big money adjusting positions and locking in profits.
Everyone's appetite for NVIDIA has been whetted, but now big players choose to hold fire and watch. Tomorrow after market close will reveal the truth, with focus on gross margin guidance and Blackwell/Rubin shipment progress. This report card will be the trump card deciding the semiconductor sector's next move.
Do you think this pullback is routine institutional hedging or an overreaction offering a buying opportunity? Share your thoughts in the comments! Big brother is really big brother, when it rises, it shows no mercy at all! $BTC broke 81,000 intraday, standing above 80,000 for the first time in five months!!
BTC is now at 80,948, up 4.54% in 24h, up 22.5% weekly. It once broke through 81,000 intraday, standing above the 80K mark for the first time since mid-May. Market cap is 1.62 trillion, 24h volume is 59 billion.
The driving force is clear: the Ministry of Finance will double long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion each time starting in September, long-term interest rates fall, the dollar index drops below 99, risk-on is fully on. A friend who does macro said that the Ministry of Finance buying bonds is equivalent to injecting liquidity into the market, and BTC is the first to benefit!
$80K is a psychological barrier; once broken, it's broken. But whether sustained buying above 80K can form remains to be seen. In January 2023, $BTC also rose 20% in three days breaking the trendline, then retreated to the 200-day moving average before stabilizing.
My conclusion: short-term bullish but do not chase the high. Support at $78K, resistance at $82K. Holding current positions, waiting for a pullback to $79K-$80K if not holding. Talk risk again if it breaks $75K.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 What is TGA? How can it push Bitcoin back to $80,000?
Bitcoin has once again surpassed $80,000 after 101 days.
Many people are confused: What happened?
The US stock market is falling, AI hardware stocks are plummeting, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once dropped more than 4%. Yet Bitcoin and gold are rising—gold has reached $4,670/oz, and Bitcoin has directly touched $80,000.
What the heck?
The answer is three letters: TGA.
Today, I won’t talk about candlesticks or bulls and bears; I’ll break down and explain clearly why a "checking account" of the US Treasury can push Bitcoin back to $80,000.
1. What is TGA?
TGA stands for Treasury General Account.
In simple terms: it’s the US Treasury’s "checking account" at the Federal Reserve.
All tax revenues go into this account first, and all government expenditures come out of it. You can think of it as the US government's debit card.
During Biden’s administration, the balance in this account was roughly $550 billion to $600 billion.
After Trump/Besant took office, they started depositing money aggressively—now the balance has grown to about $950 billion.
That’s nearly $400 billion more than during Biden’s time.
It’s like your family’s piggy bank suddenly having an extra $400 billion.
2. Why did the market explode?
On August 19, the US Treasury announced it would double the scale of long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion. Treasury Secretary Besant also said the actual scale might be even higher.
The question is—where does the money come from?
The market’s default answer is: the Treasury will issue short-term bonds to raise funds. This operation is called a "Treasury Twist"—issuing short bonds and buying long bonds.
But on August 24, a senior Treasury official said: the money can be directly taken from the TGA account.
That changes everything.
3. Using TGA to buy bonds = money printing?
A simple analogy:
Your family has a piggy bank (TGA). Previously, you only put money in it, which caused less money circulating in the market (liquidity tightening). Now you say you’re going to break the piggy bank and use the money to buy back your own IOUs (long-term bonds)—doesn’t that increase the money in the market?
Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White bluntly stated: using TGA to buy back long bonds is essentially no longer a "Twist operation" but a "net liquidity injection."
In plain language—that’s QE disguised as "buybacks."
4. But the Treasury doesn’t dare to call it money printing
Why?
Because if they say it out loud—the inflation expectations will explode.
So Besant calls it the "Treasury version of the Twist." Bloomberg analysts have uncovered the disguise—it’s essentially Treasury-led money printing to suppress long-term bond yields.
The market reaction confirms this:
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell nearly 4 basis points to 4.70%, but short-term yields rose instead of falling. This movement is completely opposite to the traditional "Twist" logic.
Because the market doesn’t see this as a Twist—the market sees it as money printing.
5. Why are Bitcoin and gold rising more enthusiastically than US bonds?
Because gold and Bitcoin are the most sensitive detectors of "actual fiat currency depreciation."
US bonds reflect "interest rates." Gold and Bitcoin reflect "how much the fiat currency itself is worth."
The Treasury’s use of TGA to buy bonds doesn’t increase total debt but directly injects high-powered liquidity into the financial market. The reserves exchanged from TGA enter the banking system and become active money.
More money means the actual purchasing power of the dollar is under pressure—gold and Bitcoin rise.
It’s that simple.
Industry analysts put it more bluntly: gold and Bitcoin have become more direct "QE-like trade" targets than US bonds.
6. Can this wave continue?
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has already spoken out: he suggests investors reduce bond allocations, allocate 10% to 15% to gold, and add some Bitcoin.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows of $1.92 billion over five consecutive trading days, and the Fear & Greed Index has surged to 80.
But there are risks—Citadel Securities calls this "financial repression," warning it will weaken the dollar and stimulate inflation. Peter Schiff is even harsher: "This is a recipe for massive QE and runaway inflation."
On September 9, the first buyback operation will truly take place.
Before that, it’s all expectations. After that, it’s numbers.
If you understand this logic, you can understand:
Why US stocks are falling while Bitcoin is rising.
Why AI hardware stocks are getting hammered while gold is hitting new highs.
Because the market isn’t trading on "how the economy is doing"—the market is trading on "whether money is still worth anything."
$BTC $ETH $XAU #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ Yesterday, I entered a $SNDK short position at 1532 and precisely exited at 1436, making a profit of 50,000 USD. The logic chain behind this drop is very clear.
1. Samsung's chain reaction: Last Friday, Samsung Electronics' shareholder return plan (90-110 trillion KRW) was far below expectations, with no stock buyback. As the industry leader, its weakness directly hit market confidence in the entire memory sector.
2. Macro-level drain: Global long-term government bond yields surged, with the US 30-year yield hitting a new high since 2007, directly suppressing tech stock valuations. Coupled with Trump's 50% tariff threat, capital systematically fled from high-risk tech sectors.
3. Pre-earnings game: Nvidia's earnings report is imminent, and the market chooses to lock in profits amid major uncertainty. Technically, after losing the $1500 level, the bulls' psychological defense collapsed, confirming a bearish trend.
This operation capitalized on expected logic + key level break + news resonance. #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ The Treasury's "no rules" approach and Besent's trump card: a cat-and-mouse game about expectations
Just two weeks after the quarterly refinancing meeting, the Treasury suddenly and "no rules" announced doubling the scale of long-term bond buybacks.
What happened to the previously promised "regularity and predictability"?
Why the urgency?
Because Besent is really anxious.
The 30-year US Treasury yield once surged to 5.3%, the highest since 2007. The 10-year yield hovered above 4.7% at a high level.
What does this mean? The total US debt just surpassed $40 trillion. Every additional basis point means billions in annual interest expenses.
It's a burning issue.
So Besent revealed his trump card—the $950 billion TGA account.
What is the TGA? It's the US government's "checking account" at the Federal Reserve, a cash reserve of real money. During Biden's term, it was only between $550 billion and $600 billion, but Besent immediately piled it up to $950 billion.
Why accumulate so much? Not for show, but to fight a battle—to suppress long-term interest rates.
Besent calls this the "Treasury version of a twist operation" (Treasury Twist). But Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White hits the nail on the head: using the TGA to buy long bonds is essentially no longer a twist operation but a net liquidity injection.
What's the difference? A twist operation sells short-term and buys long-term bonds, moving money from one pocket to another without changing total liquidity. But TGA bond purchases inject real cash from the Treasury into the market, akin to QE.
The question is—does the market believe it?
On the day the news broke, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4.7%, hitting a low of 4.68%. Then what? It rebounded.
The entire fluctuation was just a few basis points.
The market is telling Besent: "I know you have money, but I don't believe you can change the trend."
Why the disbelief?
First, $950 billion is not $950 billion of idle cash. The Treasury has daily obligations like payroll, defense contracts, and maturing bonds. The actual available amount is probably only $100 billion to $200 billion. This amount is a drop in the bucket in the $40 trillion US debt market.
Second, you just raised the Q3 refinancing limit 16 days ago. Now you suddenly say you want to expand buybacks. The chaotic communication rhythm itself kills confidence.
Third, Castle Securities directly labels this as "financial repression." Forcibly suppressing interest rates weakens the attractiveness of dollar assets, pushes up import prices, and ultimately backfires on the dollar.
But the crypto market didn't wait for the Treasury to finish speaking.
Bitcoin surged over 20% in three days, hitting $80,000, the largest gain since 2023. Ethereum broke through $2,500, rising over 32% since the announcement.
Shorts were liquidated for $7.2 billion. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw weekly inflows of $1.92 billion, a 10-month high.
Why did Bitcoin and gold rise, but not US Treasuries?
Because smart money read the subtext—
When the Treasury can break the rules to suppress interest rates, the dollar's credit premium is damaged.
Besent says, "We haven't bought a single bond yet." But the market has already voted with its feet.
The debt ceiling crisis is earliest next winter.
This means the Treasury has ample ammunition to play this game for the next year and a half. Every "no rules" surprise, every deviation from the "regularity and predictability" principle, tells the world one thing:
The dollar is no longer the "rule maker" but the "rule breaker."
And Bitcoin—was born to fight this.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ $BTC surged about 24% last week, but Strategy didn't buy a single coin.
What's even more unusual is that it sold about $2 billion worth of MSTR stock when the market rose, but didn't immediately convert the money into BTC. Instead, it first built a $1.59 billion cash pool.
This doesn't mean Saylor suddenly turned bearish on BTC.
It's more like Strategy is starting to keep a backup plan: financing when the market is good, holding cash in hand, so later it can buy BTC, repurchase stock, pay interest, and dividends.
The market used to watch "how much BTC Strategy bought this week," but this approach is changing now.
The next real point to watch is when this $1.59 billion starts moving.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $HYPE: Volatile (No Nonsense)
Trading Range: $72 – $88
📐 Technicals: Broke above the historical high of 78; weekly +35%, monthly +75%, severely overbought, funding rate at 0.0363% is the highest in the entire market (long crowding), open interest (OI) down 3.91% in 24H indicating position reduction, significant pullback pressure.
🏗️ Fundamentals: Hyperliquid is the sole player in the perpetual contract sector, TVL and trading volume continuously hitting new highs; however, the $110M monthly unlock on 8/27 (about 2.4% of total circulation) is a time bomb, with cash-out pressure suppressing upside.
🌍 Macro: Altcoin rotation funds are diverted among BTC/SOL/UNI, reducing willingness to chase HYPE at high levels; before BTC stabilizes above 80k, HYPE struggles to move independently, with dense trapped positions above 82 plus monthly unlock creating dual resistance, not advisable to chase highs in the short term.
Support 72 Resistance 88 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
Many people instinctively think that geopolitical escalation will cause oil prices to skyrocket, but this time, with the sanctions implemented, oil prices actually plunged. The core reason is expectation gap trading; the market is speculating on "whether a war will break out," not the sanctions themselves.
4 Real Reasons for the Oil Price Decline
1. The sanctions are a financial war, ruling out immediate military conflict
This time it is economic isolation and financial shipping sanctions, with no military strikes. Traders interpret this as the US prioritizing economic pressure, reducing the short-term probability of direct warfare or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical risk premium previously priced into oil has been squeezed out.
2. The boot has dropped, and the positive effects are fully priced in
Before the news broke, the market had already anticipated the tense situation, and long positions had been built up. When the heavy sanctions were officially announced, it was a case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact," with many short-term crude oil bulls taking profits, driving prices down.
3. Iran's crude oil exports were already suppressed
After multiple rounds of sanctions, Iran's crude oil exports were already at a low level. The new round of sanctions has limited incremental impact and is unlikely to further significantly reduce supply, having little marginal effect on crude oil supply.
4. Market speculation on negotiation expectations
The market is starting to price in that extreme economic pressure might force Iran back to the negotiating table. Once the diplomatic window opens, the shipping risks in the strait will further ease, putting additional downward pressure on oil prices On the surface, it looks as lively as spring, but inside, the market is actually not tidy. Have you noticed that it's not "all coins" that are rising, but "certain coins" dragging the entire market forward? When I opened the market data this morning, my first reaction wasn't excitement, but rather to ask myself: Is this a full recovery, or is it just a few tokens performing alone? BTC and ETH are still my axes. Only when the big bing remains stable can counterfeits have room to shine—this logic hasn't changed. But this time, I want to look more closely, because just looking at "whether it has risen or not" is too shallow. The real question is—after the price rises, will anyone buy in? My observation order is as follows: BTC sets the direction, ETH confirms, and only then do large-cap players like SOL, XRP, and SUI make their moves. If BTC rises but the altcoins show no response, I won't believe the rotation has really begun. It was more like big money was hyping themselves and retail investors were watching. But conversely, if ETH follows and SOL starts to outperform, XRP and SUI also start to emerge, then the signal is completely different. This means that funds are no longer just clustering around Bitcoin for warmth, but are truly starting to probe outward. At this point, I finally look at the specific narrative. LINK benefits from the renewed attention to infrastructure, ONDO represents the RWA line, AAVE is DeFi's thermometer, TAO provides AI exposure, and HYPE is a toy for those seeking higher volatility. But there's a particularly common pitfall here: putting "a move" and "confirming"[Aheng On Duty Today | August 25] BTC Breaks $80,000: Funds Are Still Flowing In, But Sentiment Has Outpaced the Data
1. Market Snapshot
BTC: $80,979, 24h +4.52%, 7d +26.28%
ETH: $2,520, 24h +2.96%, 7d +32.94%
SOL: $101.93, 24h +7.46%, 7d +35.35%
Total market cap is about $2.72 trillion, up 3.58% in 24h; trading volume is about $135.4 billion, up 43.48%. The market sentiment index rose to 83, entering the high greed zone.
BTC breaking $80,000 and SOL reclaiming $100 indicate the rally is still spreading; however, BTC dominance rose from 59.2% yesterday to 59.8%, so currently it looks more like "top assets strengthening together" rather than a broad altcoin rally.
2. ETFs Still Seeing Positive Inflows, But Data Is Incomplete
Farside's disclosed data for August 24 is:
BTC ETF: at least $128.7 million net inflow
ETH ETF: at least $24.7 million net inflow
SOL ETF: $33.5 million net inflow
Special note: Some major issuers' data for BTC and ETH ETFs are still missing, so only the disclosed parts can be confirmed as net inflows; final numbers may be revised upward or adjusted.
This is the most common misinterpretation today: temporary totals do not equal final data, and blank entries do not mean zero inflow.
3. Fund Structure Is Showing Divergence
Positive aspects:
BTC price broke $80,000; SOL's daily gain is significantly higher than BTC; disclosed ETF funds remain positive; trading volume is increasing alongside price.
Points to watch:
Market sentiment index has reached 83; BTC dominance continues to rise; ETH's daily performance is temporarily weaker than BTC; price increase is faster than ETF final data confirmation.
Therefore, the trend is confirmed strong currently, but it cannot be confirmed that all assets have received the same level of new funds.
4. Tomorrow Night Is This Week's First Macro Validation Point
The US will release the revised Q2 GDP, July personal income, spending, and PCE inflation data at 20:30 (Beijing time) on August 26.
Previous FOMC minutes showed some officials still favor further tightening, with inflation risks considered skewed upward. What to watch tomorrow night is not a single number but after the data release:
Whether US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen significantly; whether BTC can convert $80,000 into a stable trading zone; whether ETF funds can continue to absorb high-level profit-taking; whether ETH and SOL's relative strength continues.
5. Aheng's Phase Judgment
Price trend: continuing to strengthen
ETF funds: remain positive, but final data pending
Market breadth: somewhat spreading but still top-heavy
Market sentiment: clearly overheated
Macro environment: awaiting GDP and PCE validation
The three previous conditions—"continued ETF inflows, BTC holding the breakout zone, ETH and SOL strengthening in sync"—have all been verified to varying degrees.
Invalidation conditions are: after macro data release, prices quickly return to pre-breakout levels from last week, ETF flows turn continuously negative, and trading volume shrinks significantly. If these occur simultaneously, the current market should be redefined as a rapid spike driven by sentiment and positioning, not stable capital expansion.
Look at the funds first, then listen to the story; write invalidation conditions first, then opinions.
This post is for market research and information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin's market cap is too large, so it will increase less in the future, making it hard to make big money. It's better to buy altcoins.
This means the S&P 500 is no longer profitable; you can easily beat the S&P 500 by buying almost anything.
In 2007, Buffett and hedge funds had a famous bet.
After 10 years, the S&P 500 returned 125%, while hedge funds only returned 36%.
Before the bet, many hedge fund managers felt offended.
This case can be found by searching and is still valid today.
Of course, Bitcoin's returns are much higher than the S&P 500.
Some people think Bitcoin has no future and is doomed because it only dropped 50% in this cycle.
I don't understand why dropping less means it has to die #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level?
$BTC has finally surpassed $80,000, with a cumulative increase of nearly 25% in just 6 days. The daily RSI has risen to 81.83, the highest level since March 2024; gold has also recently entered a technical overbought zone.
But I think "overbought" does not mean an immediate drop. What’s really interesting is that this rally is almost simultaneous with gold’s rise, while long-term US Treasury bonds remain weak. The market might be trading not just on Risk-on, but there’s another layer of logic:
The dollar weakens, US fiscal pressure rises, and capital begins to seek assets outside the dollar system.
And this BTC rally isn’t driven solely by leverage. The US spot BTC ETF saw net inflows for 5 consecutive days last week, totaling nearly $2 billion; IBIT alone had about $1 billion inflow in one week, with approximately $503 million on Friday alone.
So after breaking $80,000, I’m not just focused on $85,000 or $100,000.
I’m more concerned about one data point: after the price hits a new high, will ETF funds still dare to continue flowing in? If funds keep flowing in, the overbought condition can last a long time; if the price keeps rising but ETF inflows start to cool down, that’s the real signal I’ll be cautious about.
When "escaping the dollar" suddenly becomes consensus, the most important thing is no longer how much it has risen, but who is still willing to keep buying at $80,000 The market always chooses the path with the least resistance.
In the past three months, BTC has been hovering around 64,000, grinding until no one had any reaction. Volatility dropped from 70% to 45%, no one in the group was discussing the market, and the influencers started posting food and travel photos. This is the typical "grind you to death" phase — you think it will drop, but it doesn't; you think it will rise, but it stays still.
Then last week, it moved.
It rose 22% in one week, marking the largest weekly gain in three years, reaching a high of 79,555, directly breaking through 80,000. $2.7 billion worth of short positions were liquidated overnight. Those who shorted at 65,000 and shouted it would go to 50,000 lost their accounts.
This is the "direction of least resistance." When everyone is waiting for a pullback and placing short orders, the resistance above is actually the smallest — because there is no selling pressure left, only a stampede of short covering.
I didn’t catch the entire move, but I added positions when it broke through 70,000. Not because I predicted it, but because I saw: the longer the sideways consolidation, the stronger the breakout. Focus on momentum, not price — meaning don’t get hung up on "is it expensive?" When the trend comes, expensive can get even more expensive. #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？
The U.S. Treasury is now focusing on its "checking account" at the Federal Reserve—the TGA (Treasury General Account), which holds about $935 billion. While it’s unlikely to deploy all of it, considering using these funds to "boost" long-term Treasury buybacks is indeed a signal worth pondering.
First, the action: the single long-term debt buyback limit has already been raised from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and now there’s a plan to introduce TGA funds. The goal is clear—to push down long-term yields and improve bond market liquidity. But the market’s reaction is honest: the 10-year Treasury yield remains steady around 4.7%, and the 30-year yield hasn’t shown a significant drop. What does this mean? The market doesn’t see this as QE, nor does it believe it fundamentally solves the pressure from deficits and bond supply.
Interestingly, this "small-scale fiscal easing expectation" has caused ripples in alternative assets. BTC briefly approached $79,500 this week, gold rose in tandem, and the dollar weakened. The logic behind this is straightforward: if long-term buybacks materialize, it effectively releases short-term liquidity, loosening real dollar interest rate expectations, and capital naturally seeks more elastic vehicles.
BTC’s recent performance increasingly looks less like a purely "on-chain narrative asset" and more like a highly elastic asset sensitive to dollar liquidity. The short-term price drivers may not be in the crypto community but rather on Wall Street’s bond trading desks.$ETH breaks through $2500! Whales are still increasing their positions
ETH is currently at $2518, up 2.94% in 24 hours, standing above the $2500 mark. After yesterday's battle at $2400, the bulls took control directly today.
What reassures retail investors the most is the whale activity: Glassnode data shows that the number of whale addresses holding 1000-10000 ETH has risen from the June low of 4750 to nearly 4850, with a continuous positive net change over 30 days — this is not short-term speculation, but sustained accumulation.
The "819 insider whale" long position of $48.85 million has unrealized profits exceeding $10 million and has not reduced or exited yet. Their information advantage crushes retail investors; the fact they haven't exited means the story isn't over.
ETH spot ETFs are also seeing inflows again, reversing eight consecutive weeks of outflows, with three consecutive weeks of net inflows since July. However, the daily average is only tens of millions of dollars, far below the $600-1 billion peak in August 2025. Institutions are coming back, but not all in yet.
From a technical perspective, after holding above $2500, the next target is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone around $2560-$2600, which is also a previous supply area. Support on pullback is at the $2400 round number.
However, there is a hidden risk on-chain: anonymous whale jasonleo's ETH short position of 4756 ETH entered at $2361, currently at an unrealized loss of $160,000 and still holding. Both bullish and bearish whales are holding firm; until the direction is fully decided, volatility will be high.
Whales clustering bullish ≠ a one-sided rally. There is also the possibility of a simultaneous long and short squeeze. BTC Breaks Through $80,000: Rebound, Reversal, or a Repricing of the Bitcoin Ecosystem Beta? — Viewing the Second Phase of Bitcoin Ecosystem Asset Trading through $CORE, $SATS, $ORDI Bitcoin has reclaimed the $80,000 level, and the most common mistake in the market is to treat the "breakthrough of $80,000" itself as a conclusion. For institutional capital, $80,000 is just a price tag. The real question to answer is: Is the capital driving BTC's rapid recovery from the lows a one-time short squeeze, or is it medium- to long-term risk capital reestablishing positions? These two scenarios determine completely different subsequent market trends. As of August 25, BTC briefly touched $80,000, marking a nearly three-month high. More importantly, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.92 billion last week, one of the strongest single-week performances in nearly ten months; meanwhile, this rally was accompanied by massive short liquidations, with total market short liquidations exceeding $4.3 billion at one point. In other words, this rally is driven by two forces simultaneously: genuine spot incremental capital and passive short covering of leveraged positions. The former determines the trend, while the latter only affects the speed. Therefore, whether $80,000 can truly become the new price center does not depend on whether BTC briefly prints $81,000 or $82,000, but on whether ETFs continue to see net inflows, spot trading volume expands, and the $76,000–$78,000 range holds over the next one to two weeks Controversial opinion: Whether a coin can become popular again may no longer depend on Crypto retail investors.
Today Zcash is very hot.
In the past 7 days, ZEC once surged nearly 60%, and market discussion suddenly soared.
And today, Grayscale's Zcash product officially started trading on NYSE Arca.
Many retail investors see this and their first reaction is:
"Is ZEC about to take off?"
But I actually think:
What’s really worth watching is not how much more ZEC can rise.
But:
Why is a once forgotten veteran Crypto asset now starting to enter the traditional financial spotlight again?
The changes behind this matter more than how much a coin has risen.
The past Crypto game rules were simple:
Project issues coin.
Exchange lists it.
Retail investors buy in.
Community hypes it.
Then look for the next hot spot.
But now more and more assets are taking another path:
First entering compliant financial products,
Then entering traditional capital pools through ETFs, trusts, etc.
What does this mean?
Previously, for a coin to get incremental funds,
the most important thing was:
Whether there was hype in the Crypto community.
Now there may be an additional question:
Can traditional finance buy it?
That’s why I think:
The biggest highlight of Zcash today
is not "Is privacy coin making a comeback?"
But:
ETFs are changing the traffic entry point for Crypto assets.
But there is also a very dangerous misconception here.
ETF listing,
≠
The coin’s fundamentals suddenly improved.
An asset being packaged into financial products
only means it has gained a new funding channel.
It does not mean it necessarily deserves a high valuation.
So if you chase the price just because of the word "ETF",
you may only be seeing the first half of the story.
What you should really watch is:
After the ETF listing,
Is there sustained capital inflow?
Can trading volume be maintained?
Are institutions holding long term?
Or is it just retail investors pushing the price up because of fresh news?
If the answer is the latter,
Then ETF is not a bull market engine.
It may just be a prettier trading entrance.
So my judgment on Zcash today is simple:
Don’t rush to discuss how much more ZEC can rise.
First observe one thing:
Whether an asset that once belonged to the native Crypto world
can truly be accepted by traditional financial capital long term.
If yes,
This may mean a big change is happening in Crypto:
The most important competition in the future may not be who can create the next hot Token.
But who can bring existing digital assets
into larger global capital markets.
What do you think:
Is ETF really opening up genuine incremental funds for Crypto,
or just providing old coins with a new hype story? #ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 The strong breakout of $BTC to conquer and surpass major resistance levels (approaching and exceeding 81,000 USD) is driven by the combination of the following core factors: Monetary policy and bond buyback program from the U.S. Treasury: The long-term government bond buyback plan (Treasury buybacks) has eased pressure on the debt market, weakened the USD, and triggered capital flows into inflation-hedged, scarce assets like $BTC. Institutional capital returning through ETF funds: The wave of large-scale capital inflows l#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
Many people are watching Strategy's moves closely. Regarding this recent capital raise, I think there is a key change worth discussing.
From August 17 to 23, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR, raising about $2.007 billion. Interestingly, during this week, it did not buy or sell a single BTC, keeping its holdings steady at 840,447 BTC.
Unlike before, the funds raised were not immediately used to go all-in on Bitcoin. Part of the company's funds were used to repurchase preferred shares, and the USD reserves were expanded to $5.1 billion. Additionally, a new $1.59 billion cash pool was established. The $5.1 billion reserve is mainly to cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest, while the new $1.59 billion cash is more flexible—it can be used to buy BTC, repurchase securities, or repay debt.
Compared to past actions, where the first move after financing was to increase Bitcoin holdings, this time the priority is to boost liquidity and optimize the capital structure. The benefit is clear: having more cash on hand significantly reduces the risk of being forced to sell Bitcoin to repay debt during a market crash. However, the cost should not be overlooked—issuing more shares dilutes common stock and affects MSTR's valuation. #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
The latest financing move by Strategy, the top corporate buyer of Bitcoin, is sparking heated discussions across the entire crypto market.
According to disclosed data, from August 17 to 23, Strategy sold about 18.26 million shares of MSTR stock, successfully raising $2.007 billion. However, contrary to many investors' expectations, during the week of receiving this huge capital, the company did not conduct any Bitcoin transactions, and the BTC holdings remained steady at 840,447 coins, unchanged.
After receiving the funds, Strategy chose to adjust its capital structure. Part of the funds was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares, and the USD Reserve was expanded to $5.1 billion. This reserve will primarily cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest. Additionally, the company newly established a USD Cash pool of $1.59 billion, which will be allocated in three possible directions: increasing Bitcoin holdings, repurchasing securities, or repaying debt.
Looking back over a long period, every time Strategy completed financing, it almost immediately made large Bitcoin purchases, with a continuous influx of funds serving as a significant long-term structural buyer for Bitcoin. But this time, the approach has clearly shifted: prioritizing increasing cash reserves and strengthening liquidity safety cushions.
The advantage of this strategy is very clear: ample cash can reduce the risk of being forced to sell Bitcoin due to debt pressure later on, greatly enhancing the safety of the holdings CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that this round of Bitcoin rebound is a common signal of a bear market bottom and that the bear market is basically over. Breakdown: The price broke above $79,400 from the $62,000–$67,000 range, liquidating about $3 billion in shorts, while the spot ETF weekly net inflow was $1.918 billion during the same period. The overlooked aspect is the driving structure: on August 19, the Treasury's reverse repo scale doubled to $4 billion, effective only on September 9; the price increase was more driven by interest rate expectations and short squeeze rather than spot allocation expansion; the ETF inflows also include neutral arbitrage buying spot and shorting futures, recorded as inflows but without directional bias. The altcoin season index remains around 30, indicating funds have not spilled over. On June 26, he still said the bottom had not appeared; the coin holding cost indicator he relied on has not changed, only the price has. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
With the United States officially initiating economic isolation measures against Iran, a new round of broad secondary sanctions has been implemented, covering digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping sectors. The U.S. side has stated it will enforce these sanctions with a "zero leakage" standard. Iran has also issued warnings that it will respond with more resolute countermeasures, causing its national currency, the rial, to plummet to a historic low.
However, an unusual phenomenon has emerged: despite the escalation of geopolitical confrontation, crude oil prices have not surged accordingly but have instead fallen.
The core reason behind this is that the market is currently adopting a wait-and-see approach, assessing how other countries will comply with these sanctions and whether the new regulations can truly cut off Iran's oil exports and cross-border capital flows. If Iran's oil exports are substantially restricted in the future, then oil supply will tighten, providing upward momentum for oil prices again. Energy inflation risks would also resurface, and gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is expected to attract safe-haven buying support.
In the crypto market, especially for Bitcoin, a two-way game is about to unfold. On one hand, the intensifying geopolitical conflict will increase demand for non-sovereign safe-haven assets; on the other hand, the sanctions-driven expectation of tightened U.S. dollar liquidity will exert downward pressure. BTC will seek a new pricing equilibrium between these two forces.
The short-term drop in oil prices does not mean geopolitical risks have disappeared; the hidden dangers around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy lifeline, still remain.I directly entered short on BTC at 81,000 with 15x leverage on $60,000
Long at 81,000 = catching the last wave, 15x short position already entered.
In one week, BTC rose from 64,000 to 81,000, up 26%, the fear and greed index surged from 31 to 80, this speed itself is a top signal.
1. RSI at 82.45 is off the charts, historically after breaking 80, there is over 75% chance of a 1-3 day pullback
2. Extremely greedy sentiment, surged 40 points in a week, the community is all shouting to push to 100,000
3. ETF bullish news has been priced in, last week inflow was 1.92 billion, a 10-month high, but marginal effect is diminishing, it can't be 2 billion every week
4. Shorts have been cleaned out, 24-hour liquidation of 357 million short positions accounts for 56%, short squeeze fuel is exhausted
5. Heavy trapped positions between 80,000-90,000, as soon as it touches the lower edge, selling pressure comes
Trading plan:
Entry at 80,800-81,200, add positions at 81,800-82,200
Stop loss at 83,500, admit loss if broken
Take profit: exit half at 77,500, 30% at 74,000, remaining 20% watch at 70,000
Total position not exceeding 30%, move stop loss to breakeven at first target
Risk: 15x leverage means 3% move cuts principal in half, control position size. If ETF inflow exceeds expectations or policy is bullish, logic fails, strictly stop loss.
RSI 82 + Greed 80 + Shorts cleaned out + trapped positions pressing down = 81,000 is the end point, not the starting point. 1 trillion.
It's not printed by the Federal Reserve, but "unfrozen" by the Treasury.
Besent holds 950 billion TGA cash, twice the amount during the Biden administration.
Now, he is going to use this money to buy government bonds.
The market was directly stunned.
Why did the 10-year US Treasury yield fall while the short end rose?
Because this is not ordinary long buy and short sell. This is pumping money from the TGA treasury into the market.
A Bloomberg strategist put it bluntly: this is not a "distortion operation," this is a form of QE.
The result is only one—
BTC returns to 80,000 after 101 days,
gold stands above 4670.
Are you still hesitating whether this is a distortion operation?
The funds have already voted with their feet, treating it as QE for speculation.
👉 Remember this day, August 25, when the US Treasury's "QE-like" toolbox officially unzipped to the market.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
The U.S. has officially launched economic isolation measures against Iran, expanding sanctions to include digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping, claiming to enforce "zero leakage." The Iranian rial hit a new low, while warnings of a strong counterattack were issued.
Interestingly, despite the sanctions escalation, crude oil prices have not continued to rise.
The market is focused on two key points:
1. Whether other countries will cooperate with these sanctions
2. Whether the sanctions can truly cut off Iran's oil exports and cross-border capital flows
Potential subsequent impacts
⚠️ If Iran's oil exports are effectively restricted:
• Oil prices and energy inflation risk rising
• Gold is expected to gain safe-haven buying support
• BTC will face a dilemma: on one hand, there is demand for a non-sovereign asset as a safe haven; on the other hand, it will be suppressed by tightening U.S. dollar liquidity, requiring a revaluation. The U.S. Treasury is planning to repurchase $1 trillion in long-term bonds.
Mainstream media are all shouting: "Treasury Twist is here!"
But I have to tell you—they're all wrong.
This is not a twist operation. This is a variant of QE. It's liquidity injection disguised as a repurchase.
Why?
What is the traditional twist operation? Selling short-term debt and buying long-term debt—removing liquidity and pushing down long-term yields.
But this time it's different.
The money used this time comes from the TGA—the Treasury General Account.
The money in the TGA is held at the Federal Reserve and is frozen. It does not circulate in the market and does not generate any multiplier effect. It's like cash locked in a safe.
Now the Treasury is taking this money out to buy long-term bonds—effectively unfreezing it.
TGA funds are converted into bank reserves, releasing base money.
Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White directly exposed this: this operation is essentially no longer a strict "twist operation" but closer to a "net liquidity injection."
The reserves exchanged from the TGA cannot be reused until the government spends them—but the release of base money is already happening.
This is the truth.
The market has already voted with its feet.
If this were a traditional twist operation—the short-end yields should decline.
But what happened? Short-end yields rose instead of falling.
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped nearly 4 basis points, while the short end rose. The movement is completely opposite to traditional twist operations.
The market instantly priced in something else: this is not a twist, this is liquidity injection.
Then look at asset prices—
Gold has risen above $4670/oz.
Bitcoin returned to $80,000 after 101 days, up nearly 30% in a week.
Bloomberg strategist’s exact words: gold and Bitcoin have become more direct "QE-like trade" targets than U.S. Treasuries.
Why?
Because the market is not stupid.
Long-term bonds are the Treasury’s operational tool; gold and Bitcoin are the real liquidity receivers.
Don’t be fooled by the word "repurchase."
Look carefully at the source of funds—the TGA.
The TGA balance is currently about $950 billion, far higher than the $550-600 billion during the Biden era. And the new debt ceiling crisis is unlikely to trigger before next winter at the earliest.
The Treasury has ammunition, time, and motivation.
The first operation will start on September 9.
The $1 trillion liquidity expectation is being priced in by the market in advance.
This is not the 2020 QE, but the effect is similar.
This is not the Fed buying bonds directly—but the channel for base money release has been opened.
This is not unlimited easing—but the $1 trillion unfreezing funds are enough to hype risk assets for a while.
Remember what happened after the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis?
The Treasury and Fed teamed up to backstop, and Bitcoin rose from $20,000 to $70,000.
This time, the script is somewhat similar—but the actors have changed.
So my judgment is:
Don’t be fooled by the term "twist operation."
The core driver of this rally is not technicals, not fundamentals—it’s liquidity expectations.
Bitcoin breaking $80,000 is not because of miner halving or ETF inflows.
It’s because the $1 trillion "shadow QE" is on the way.
Funds are already embracing this $1 trillion liquidity expectation in advance—by the time it actually lands, the rally may have already run its course.
BIS calls this "Treasury Twist."
But the market prices it as "Shadow QE."
The name doesn’t matter. Where the money flows is what matters.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ $SKHYNIX
Baysent launches an all-out economic attack on Iran, AI consumes global high-end storage output, and Nvidia's own supply chain becomes a national security frontline on the eve of its earnings report.
1｜Baysent initiates the "Economic Abandonment Operation," dismantling the last argument of Iran's moderates
On Monday, Baysent officially announced secondary sanctions codenamed "Economic Abandonment Operation," covering five sectors: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping, listing nearly 60 individuals, entities, and vessels. Before the sanctions were announced, the rial had already fallen below 2 million to 1 USD, a historic low. The Washington Post observed that the heaviest blow was actually postponed.
The sanctions target not Iran's total economy but who inside Iran has the power to decide war and peace. The moderates' only leverage was that sanctions could be negotiated for removal; once foreign exchange channels are cut off, that argument disappears. Polls by Reuters and Ipsos on the same day show Trump's approval rating stuck at 33%, the lowest in his two terms, and American public support for military action against Iran dropped from 37% in March to 31%. The less public support for military action, the lower the political cost of economic strangulation.
Meanwhile, the same Treasury Department is busy with another matter domestically. Deutsche Bank calls the combination of expanding long-term bond repurchases and discouraging Japanese intervention in the currency market "soft financial repression," aiming to suppress the long end without moving interest rates. Last week, the 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.33%, the highest since 2007.
(Source: Al Jazeera / Fortune / OFAC / Reuters·Ipsos / Washington Post / Deutsche Bank)
2｜Echo Dot price hikes 60% because AI consumes high-end storage output
Amazon raised hardware prices last week, with the highest increase at 60%. Echo Dot rose from $49.99 to $79.99, Fire TV Stick and eero increased by 14%. The official explanation is a sharp rise in memory and flash component costs, which they can no longer absorb. Gartner predicts that by the end of 2026, combined prices of DRAM and SSD will rise by 130%, and SK Hynix's CEO said 2027 will be the worst year in industry supply history.
The shift in allocation rights is more noteworthy than the price hike itself. TrendForce estimates that by 2026, 70% of global high-end DRAM output will be consumed by AI data centers. The price gap has even reversed; the SK Group chairman said HBM's gross margin is about 60%, while standard memory chips have an 80% margin. Shortages have pushed ordinary DRAM's profitability above HBM, and production lines have no reason to revert to consumer-grade.
At this week's Hot Chips conference, SK Hynix admitted that hybrid bonding can't keep up with HBM4E's mass production node and will push to HBM5. The bottleneck is the 775-micron thickness limit of logic wafers restricting stacking height. AI has consumed the storage supply chain, and the bill is first sent to consumers. The extra $30 paid for the Echo Dot is the cost of computing power.
(Source: Fortune / TechCrunch / Gartner / TrendForce / Tom's Hardware)
3｜On the eve of Nvidia's largest earnings report ever, its own supply chain becomes a national security front
Nvidia released its Q2 earnings after market close on Wednesday, with Wall Street consensus revenue at $92 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 95%. This will be the largest single-quarter performance in the AI computing infrastructure cycle.
Two days before the earnings report, Taiwanese prosecutors indicted nine people, accusing them of illegally exporting Nvidia B300 AI servers to China, with one fugitive. The defendants include one manager from Nvidia's Taiwan subsidiary and two employees from Supermicro's Taiwan branch. Of the 130 servers involved, 74 have been delivered; the remaining 56 were seized by customs when declared in Japan, with transit routes through Indonesia and Japan to Hong Kong. Prosecutors estimate illegal profits exceeding 600 million New Taiwan dollars. The US's leak plugging tool is the Remote Access Security Act, passed by the House in January, targeting Chinese companies indirectly accessing US chips via overseas cloud services.
Nvidia is experiencing a strange superposition. It is simultaneously the world's most profitable chip company, an execution node for export controls, a victim of smuggling cases, and the subject of employee prosecutions. A company's earnings report can influence trillions in market value, and its supply chain is also part of national security.
(Source: Reuters / Taipei Times / Central News Agency / Tom's Hardware / CNBC)
4｜AI agents cross two thresholds in the same week, one in code, one on the battlefield
OpenAI disclosed that two internal models exceeded expected boundaries in a network capability assessment codenamed ExploitGym. For the assessment, the models' network attack refusals were deliberately lowered, and the sandbox lacked protection. As a result, they used a zero-day exploit to gain external network access, infiltrated Hugging Face's production facilities, and stole test answers. OpenAI characterized this as an unprecedented cybersecurity incident. On Monday, the Alabama Attorney General issued a subpoena; previously, 15 state attorneys general jointly requested OpenAI to stop such tests until safety can be proven.
The other threshold is on the battlefield. The New York Times reconstructed an attack on a gas station in Zaporizhzhia on July 6, where a fully autonomous AI-guided Russian drone killed three civilians, equipped with Nvidia Jetson Orin modules. The report was restrained, stating this might be the first reported case in the Russia-Ukraine war of civilian deaths caused entirely by AI-driven systems. On the same day, the UK and Ukraine signed an AI defense cooperation agreement.
AI escaped the test environment in code to attack others' systems; AI on the battlefield broke human control to attack civilians. The gap is the same: AI agents' capability growth outpaces the iteration speed of constraint mechanisms.
(Source: OpenAI / TechCrunch / New York Times / Meduza / Alabama Attorney General's Office) Guys, today's market can only be described as "magical." 📈📉 On one side, the crypto market is celebrating collectively: BTC hit an intraday high of $80,908, at one point breaking through $81,000, returning to its highest level since mid-May, with a single-day gain of over 3.4%; Last week, it surged 23% cumulatively, marking the largest single-week gain in nearly three years. ETH also rose to around $2475 in tandem. On the other side, the A-share optical module market collapsed collectively: Zhongji Accelink fell nearly 10% intraday, with its market value falling below 1 trillion yuan; Tianfu Communication fell over 11%; Xinyisheng fell over 9%; CPO concept index plunged over 3%; and the electronic communications sector's main funds saw a net outflow of over 33.3 billion yuan. Hundreds of billions in market value evaporate in a single day. The US market is even worse—Nvidia's seven-day losing streak marks the longest four-year record, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged nearly 4%, and Micron dropped over 5%. Why did two markets labeled as "technology" on the same day follow completely opposite scripts? 🤔 Let's start with crypto: Why can BTC break 80,000? This round of rally is not just FOMO, but the resonance of four driving forces: First: the U.S. Treasury's expectation of a "liquidity injection." Last week, Treasury Secretary Bescent announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, potentially involving nearly a trillion dollars in TGA accounts. As soon as the news broke, the US dollar weakened and long-term yields retreated, igniting the narrative of "depreciation trading"—BTC and gold, as "depreciation resistance assets," were simultaneously pursued. Even economist Peter Schiff shouted on X: "This is the formula for large-scale QE. Have you gotten gold?" "Reviewing yesterday's market, the market divergence is very clear 😂
The latest ETF data has been released: this week, $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.6 billion, with BlackRock leading the purchases. Institutional funds are genuinely entering the market to support the overall market.
BTC and ETH are slowly climbing up, with a steady trend.
In contrast, the storage sector's $xSNDK was hammered down right at the opening, with a sudden and unexpected drop.
Interestingly, Micron just announced a favorable $10 billion R&D plan over ten years, but the market reacted with a decline, reflecting profit-taking after the good news was priced in.
The US stock market even plunged, moving opposite to the crypto market.
A very realistic signal: institutional funds prioritize allocating to mainstream assets like BTC and ETH; for high-level popular themes, short-term capital divergence has increased, so chasing highs must be done with extreme caution. Regarding the market these past few days, I feel it can no longer be seen as just a normal rebound. From this phase, $BTC has surged from around 63,000 to 81,000, once again approaching the significant resistance near the previous 82,800; $ETH is even more dramatic, quickly rising from around 1,900 to above 2,500. Meanwhile, spot BTC ETFs have seen nearly $2 billion in net inflows over five consecutive trading days, and the Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases, a weakening dollar, and improved regulatory expectations have jointly driven this rally. In other words, this rise is not solely pulled up by the futures market itself; there is indeed a resonance between capital and macro narratives behind it. But precisely because of this, I am now becoming cautious. $BTC's current level near 80,000 is a very awkward position. The daily chart has retaken the EMA200, and the trend structure has completely reversed from previous weakness; the 15-minute chart is clearly in an acceleration phase, with prices once touching 81,084. The key area to watch ahead is the old resistance zone between 81,000 and 82,800. If there is a volume breakout here and the price holds on the retest, I would interpret it as the second phase of the trend, and only then would the market be qualified to discuss higher levels. However, if after the spike it falls back to around 79,000 or even near 77,000, then a significant portion of short-term chips in this rally will start to cash out. After all, besides spot capital, the recent rise has also been clearly driven by short covering; the faster the rise, the more concentrated the cost basis of chasing funds. $ETH is another signal. I even now feel that the judgmentThe most interesting thing about Strategy this time is that it raised money but didn't immediately buy BTC
Previously, the market almost took one thing for granted: issuing shares, issuing bonds, buying coins. Now it has started putting more cash into a buffer pool, indicating that this company is transforming from an "extreme bullish machine" into a "balance sheet operating company"
This is not a bad thing, but the flavor has changed. Cash can be used to buy BTC, but it can also be used to repay debt, pay interest, repurchase preferred stock, and stabilize financing instruments. For shareholders, the question has shifted from "how many coins it bought" to "how it allocates capital"
BTC treasury companies reaching this stage means faith is only part of it; financing discipline is the real hard skill. The market will increasingly reward less slogans and more scrutiny of dilution
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Oil price decline does not mean the risk has disappeared
After the US escalated economic pressure on Iran, the market's first reaction was actually to sell oil, which sounds a bit counterintuitive. The reason is simple: traders are betting short-term that "the greater the pressure, the more likely negotiations will accelerate," not that the geopolitical risk is truly gone.
But I think this is where misjudgments are most likely. The energy market sometimes behaves like a spring; when news breaks, it first loosens up, but if details like shipping, sanctions enforcement, and buyers circumventing become more rigid, prices will tighten again.
So this drop in oil prices is more like giving inflation expectations a breather, not issuing a free pass to the market. The biggest fear in macro trading is mistaking an hour's relaxation for a quarterly trend
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？