Others teach you how to trade crypto with AI, I do the opposite: fully expose and critique everything
1/ The whole network is teaching you how to trade crypto with AI. I'm doing the opposite: I will fully disclose the code, trades, and losses of the Polymarket bot I wrote. You guys come and find the flaws. 2/ First, reveal the bottom line. Bot strategy in one sentence: Place maker orders on Polymarket, selling overrated unpopular (low probability Yes contracts). The basis is not mysticism but backtesting: Among 225 settled markets, 113 with <20% probability had an actual win rate of 0%. Unpopular contracts are systematically overrated, this is the Favorite-Longshot Bias, supported by papers and data. 3/ But I won't tell you "this is guaranteed profit." Because there are two layers I haven't verified yet: Simulation layer: I ran a $500 paper portfolio, +53%. But this is old data before I adjusted the realistic model, somewhat optimistic. Now rerunning with $200, adding maker fill rate (40% per cycle) and 2-day settlement delay—closer to reality and slower. Real layer: No real money deposited yet. On-chain and exchange balances are currently zero. 4/ What is disclosed: - Strategy logic and backtest report (documented) - Trade/settlement data from each scan - Risk control triggers and loss records - Real capital curve after live trading What is not disclosed: - My private keys (never shared) - "Copy trade links" (none, and won't do) 5/ Why dare to disclose losses: Because losses are
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