Gold at $4670, what are you still waiting for?
First, look at the surface: rebounded from the July low near 4000 to 4670, up 17% in two months.
Spot gold broke through $4670/oz, up 1.43% intraday; New York futures gold even surged past 4700. Weekly gain about 6-7%, monthly gain about 15%, hitting a new high in over three months. In less than a week, gold has consecutively broken through the 4500 and 4600 barriers. The candlestick chart tells you: this is not a rebound, it's a trend reversal.
First thing: the US dollar credit is collapsing, yet you’re still focused on CPI.
Last week, the US Treasury unexpectedly announced it would at least double the scale of long-term bond repurchases.
Did you get that? The US government itself is afraid it can’t sell its bonds, so it started buying them back personally.
What’s the result? The US dollar index plunged directly, and gold soared over 5% in a single week. Even more intense — after a brief dip, the 10-year US Treasury yield quickly rebounded back to 4.7%, reflecting heavy selling pressure on US debt as the debt ceiling approaches.
No buyers for US debt, the dollar is worthless, gold has become the only safe haven.
Second thing: Goldman Sachs changed its tune, saying “4900 is too conservative.”
Goldman Sachs previously predicted gold would reach $4900 by the end of 2026, now they’ve directly revised that — the original target now seems conservative. Why?
Because gold has entered a “mechanical acceleration zone.” The options market is experiencing a “Gamma squeeze” — investors are frantically buying call options, forcing market makers to increase hedging positions as gold prices rise, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of “the higher the price, the heavier the buying.”
Third thing: two nuclear-level events will explode this week.
The first: July PCE inflation data (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) is about to be released. The market expects core PCE year-over-year to hold at 3.3%. If the data is soft — rate cut expectations will heat up, and gold will take off directly.
The second: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first major speech at Jackson Hole (8/28 22:00 Beijing time). The market is extremely focused on his policy signals.
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
US dollar credit collapse, Treasury buying back bonds itself
Global central banks buying gold frantically, China increasing holdings for 21 consecutive months
Goldman Sachs revises target saying 4900 is “too conservative,” institutional long positions at 60%
SPDR Gold ETF added nearly 50 tons in one month
On the other side:
RSI has entered overbought territory, short-term pullback risk exists
If PCE is hot or Warsh hawkish, profit-taking may be triggered
4670-4700 is a strong resistance zone, three failed attempts to break through
Key levels
Resistance above: 4700 → 4720-4750 → 4800 → 4900-5000
Support below: 4620-4600 → 4550-4570 → 4500
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Buy in batches on pullbacks to 4600-4620, stop loss at 4550, target 4720-4750. If volume breaks through 4700, chase longs, stop loss 4650, target 4800-4900.
Swing traders:
Wait for PCE and Warsh speech outcomes; if dovish, go heavy long targeting 4900-5000. If hawkish, wait for pullback to 4500-4550 before entering.
Long-term believers:
Buy blindly below 4500. With central bank gold purchases + weakening dollar credit + US debt crisis, the triple drivers set gold’s long-term target at 5000-6000+.
Gold now is like Bitcoin in 2023 —
99% of people think “it’s risen too much,” but it went from 2000 all the way to 4000.
The day 4700 breaks through, you’ll realize:
It’s not that gold is weak, it’s that you always thought “it’s too high.”
What’s your gold cost?
At 4670, do you dare to get on board?
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