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The U.S. Treasury is planning to repurchase $1 trillion in long-term bonds. Mainstream media are all shouting: "Treasury Twist is here!" But I have to tell you—they're all wrong. This is not a twist operation. This is a variant of QE. It's liquidity injection disguised as a repurchase. Why? What is the traditional twist operation? Selling short-term debt and buying long-term debt—removing liquidity and pushing down long-term yields. But this time it's different. The money used this time comes from the TGA—the Treasury General Account. The money in the TGA is held at the Federal Reserve and is frozen. It does not circulate in the market and does not generate any multiplier effect. It's like cash locked in a safe. Now the Treasury is taking this money out to buy long-term bonds—effectively unfreezing it. TGA funds are converted into bank reserves, releasing base money. Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White directly exposed this: this operation is essentially no longer a strict "twist operation" but closer to a "net liquidity injection." The reserves exchanged from the TGA cannot be reused until the government spends them—but the release of base money is already happening. This is the truth. The market has already voted with its feet. If this were a traditional twist operation—the short-end yields should decline. But what happened? Short-end yields rose instead of falling. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped nearly 4 basis points, while the short end rose. The movement is completely opposite to traditional twist operations. The market instantly priced in something else: this is not a twist, this is liquidity injection. Then look at asset prices— Gold has risen above $4670/oz. Bitcoin returned to $80,000 after 101 days, up nearly 30% in a week. Bloomberg strategist’s exact words: gold and Bitcoin have become more direct "QE-like trade" targets than U.S. Treasuries. Why? Because the market is not stupid. Long-term bonds are the Treasury’s operational tool; gold and Bitcoin are the real liquidity receivers. Don’t be fooled by the word "repurchase." Look carefully at the source of funds—the TGA. The TGA balance is currently about $950 billion, far higher than the $550-600 billion during the Biden era. And the new debt ceiling crisis is unlikely to trigger before next winter at the earliest. The Treasury has ammunition, time, and motivation. The first operation will start on September 9. The $1 trillion liquidity expectation is being priced in by the market in advance. This is not the 2020 QE, but the effect is similar. This is not the Fed buying bonds directly—but the channel for base money release has been opened. This is not unlimited easing—but the $1 trillion unfreezing funds are enough to hype risk assets for a while. Remember what happened after the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis? The Treasury and Fed teamed up to backstop, and Bitcoin rose from $20,000 to $70,000. This time, the script is somewhat similar—but the actors have changed. So my judgment is: Don’t be fooled by the term "twist operation." The core driver of this rally is not technicals, not fundamentals—it’s liquidity expectations. Bitcoin breaking $80,000 is not because of miner halving or ETF inflows. It’s because the $1 trillion "shadow QE" is on the way. Funds are already embracing this $1 trillion liquidity expectation in advance—by the time it actually lands, the rally may have already run its course. BIS calls this "Treasury Twist." But the market prices it as "Shadow QE." The name doesn’t matter. Where the money flows is what matters. $BTC $ETH $XAU #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？