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First, let's look at today's numbers. BTC briefly returned to 71834, marking the first time since early June it has stood above 70000. It has risen over 11% cumulatively in two days. ETH reached 2261, up more than 18% since Tuesday. SOL rose 11.5%, XRP rose 10.6%, BNB rose 4.3%, and DOGE rose 7.3%. On the US stock side, crypto stocks went even crazier: Canaan rose 20%, Circle rose 8%, Robinhood rose 5%. News headlines all say Trump called on Congress in the White House to pass the Clarity Act, and then the coins went up. But I want to say something that might be unpopular: today's bullish candle, Trump was just the one ringing the doorbell; the real rent payer is the Treasury Department. First, let's talk about what the Clarity Act is. In one sentence, it aims to define tokens—whether they fall under SEC or CFTC jurisdiction. This issue has been hanging for years. Every morning, project teams wake up thinking, "Am I considered a security today?" This bill is currently stuck in the Senate, with a procedural vote scheduled for September. Yesterday, Trump called a room full of industry executives, saying he wants to pass a fair version. Note, "fair version"—these four words are very key. It means the current version hasn't been agreed upon yet. In other words, today's rise is based on expectations, not results. What is really supporting it underneath is another matter: the US Treasury Department. On August 19, it announced that the scale of long-term Treasury bond repurchases would increase from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, covering 10 to 3Coinbase is right, the United States is indeed winning the global crypto race — but the "finish line" (CLARITY Act) it is rushing toward may be just a few meters away.
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🇺🇸 The U.S. is winning, but it's a "policy race"
Coinbase's claim that "the U.S. is winning the cryptocurrency race" is not empty talk. Over the past year, the U.S. has indeed taken the lead in crypto policy compared to major competitors like the EU and Singapore:
· Top-level White House push: Trump met with crypto executives from Coinbase, Ripple, and others at the White House, publicly pressuring Congress to pass a "fair version" of the CLARITY Act, calling it "crucial for the U.S. to maintain its lead in emerging technologies."
· Administrative and legislative coordination: The U.S. has established a global leading position through executive orders, legislation, and regulatory reforms. The SEC has proposed dedicated "Reg Crypto" rules for crypto assets for the first time. The CFTC chairman also clearly stated: "Building market structure is very important, and we can achieve it through rules or through laws."
But leading in policy does not mean the bill has been enacted. The real "match point" is in the Senate in September.
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🏛️ Where is the finish line? — September 15 Senate procedural vote
Coinbase's call that "CLARITY will help cross the finish line" comes as the bill has reached the doorstep of a full Senate vote:
· Milestones completed: The House passed it in July 2025 with 294 to 134 votes; the Senate Banking Committee cleared it in May 2026 with 15 to 9 votes.
· Next key step: The Senate is scheduled for a procedural vote on September 15; if it proceeds smoothly, a vote on the motion to end debate will be held on September 18.
· Hard threshold: The bill needs 60 votes to advance, but Republicans hold only 53 seats, so at least 7 Democrats' support is required.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is very optimistic, predicting the CLARITY Act will receive strong bipartisan support and pass the vote on September 15, ushering in an "Uptober" and a new crypto bull market.
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📉 But before the finish line, there are three "hurdles"
Optimistic slogans aside, the market pricing is honest — the probability of the bill passing has plummeted from 82% in February to the current 15%-20%, with Galaxy Digital even lowering it to 10%.
Three major obstacles are slowing the sprint:
① Ethical clause deadlock (biggest obstacle)
Democrats demand that federal officials holding over $1 million in crypto assets or more than 10% ownership must divest, with strict isolation mechanisms for large presidential holdings; the Republican version is much more lenient. No compromise has been reached so far.
② Stablecoin yield clause dispute
The banking sector strongly opposes allowing stablecoins to pay interest or rewards to holders, fearing it would cause deposits to flow from insured banks to crypto platforms.
③ The time window is almost closed
The Senate reconvenes on September 14, and in October lawmakers will leave Congress for midterm elections. If the motion to end debate is not initiated by late September, the 2026 legislative window will be completely closed.
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🔄 If the bill really fails, the U.S. is still winning
Coinbase's confidence is somewhat justified. Even if the CLARITY Act ultimately fails, the U.S. is still moving faster than other major countries.
The CFTC chairman has clearly stated: even if Congress fails to pass legislation, the CFTC will use its authority under existing regulations to make rules. The SEC has also launched the "Reg Crypto" proposal and "Project Crypto" plan. The U.S. regulatory machine is already in motion — with or without this bill.
Therefore, Coinbase's statement that "the U.S. is winning the cryptocurrency race" is accurate. The question is: will the U.S. cross the finish line with a complete law, or continue running with regulatory rules without a law — this will determine whether the U.S. takes the gold medal or just a "participation award" after the finish line.
$COIN
$BTC After the U.S. stock market opened, the market showed obvious divergence: the Dow Jones rose slightly, the Nasdaq and S&P fluctuated weakly, and large tech stocks were mixed in gains and losses. Funds flowed out from high-level tech stocks and rotated toward cyclical sectors. There was increased internal divergence among crypto concept stocks; Coinbase and MSTR briefly surged after the open but then oscillated downward, failing to sustain a strong unilateral trend. This indirectly reflects that traditional funds are becoming cautious at the high levels of crypto assets. The first layer of direct linkage: sentiment transmission. When risk appetite in the U.S. stock market is stable, it provides mild emotional support to the crypto market but does not bring additional incremental gains. Since there was no extreme surge or plunge in the U.S. stock market tonight, it is difficult to drive BTC to form a new trend. The crypto market continues to follow the rhythm of internal capital competition. The movement of crypto stocks mostly synchronizes with coin prices and rarely leads them in the opposite direction. The second layer is macro transmission, focusing on U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index. Currently, long-term bond yields remain at relatively low levels, and the liquidity easing expectation brought by increased Treasury buybacks by the Treasury Department still exists. This is the fundamental macro support for this round of the big market rally. If Treasury yields rebound again during the evening trading session, it will suppress risk asset valuations, and the crypto market is likely to face a correction; if yields continue to decline, it will provide macro-level support for coin prices. The third layer is capital signals: the attitude of funds within the U.S. stock market, which can be used as a reference for institutional sentiment. If MSTR and COIN continue to surge with increased volume, it indicates that Wall Street funds are willing to keep chasing crypto assets higher; conversely, when crypto concept stocks stagnate at high levels and funds take profits, it means that the transmissionOn one side, trillion-dollar giants are collectively weakening, while on the other, a "dog" has surged nearly 10% in four days — this week's capital choice is clear at a glance.
Tech stocks are really suffering. On Monday, among the Mag7, only Nvidia barely turned positive; Meta dropped 3.5% in a single day, Microsoft fell 2.5%; on Tuesday, Meta plunged another 4.4% due to a federal lawsuit, with rumored potential fines as high as 1.4 trillion. Coupled with market doubts about the returns on sky-high AI capital expenditures, big money chose to withdraw ahead of Nvidia's earnings report next week.
Looking at $DOGE, it was still at $0.070 on Monday, then directly pulled up to $0.0776 on Wednesday, nearly a 10% increase within the week. It has no earnings report, no fundamentals; the only reason for the rise is that hot money exiting tech stocks needs a highly elastic place to go.
This comparison is like a mirror: tech stocks are calculating "input-output" returns and can't rise; DOGE feeds only on liquidity and sentiment, flying as soon as money loosens. But don't get carried away — DOGE is still over 30% below its May high of 0.115, with heavy trapped positions above 0.08. This move looks more like an oversold rebound.
So the answer is very clear: capital is not abandoning tech stocks but temporarily embracing elasticity during the earnings blackout period. Tech stocks will wait for Nvidia's earnings to land before deciding direction; DOGE is making money off sentiment and needs to run fast.#US Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Repo, 30-Year Treasury Yields Pull Back from Highs
This is Dao Ge, the US Treasury has taken action.
On August 19, the Treasury announced it would raise the liquidity support repo cap for 10- to 30-year long-term government bonds from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective from September 9 to November 4. After the announcement, the 30-year Treasury yield retreated from the high range of 5.29%–5.32% to about 5.18%–5.20%. BTC then surged from around 63,000, breaking through 69,000, with a 24-hour gain exceeding 11%. The Treasury's repo itself is not QE and does not directly inject base money, but it changes the market's liquidity expectations.
Previously, rising long-end yields continuously suppressed valuations for stocks, gold, and BTC. When the Treasury announced the repo expansion, the biggest macro pressure suddenly eased, and the market immediately repriced all risk assets. However, it should be noted that the repo is mainly used to improve liquidity and debt management and is not equivalent to a Fed rate cut. The US fiscal deficit is close to $2 trillion, so bond supply pressure remains, and inflation expectations are still around 4.3%. If the repo only temporarily eases volatility, the market will still face the return of long-term rate pressure.
The Treasury repo is the trigger for this short squeeze but not the start of a long-term trend. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Dao Ge has spoken, savor it. $BTC $ETH $HYPE After a two-month pause, Strive finally made a move—31 BTC may not be much, but the "restart" itself is the real signal
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📊 1. Event Overview: 31 BTC, valued at about $2.2 million
On August 20, Bitcoin treasury company Strive resumed increasing its Bitcoin holdings after a break of over two months, purchasing 31 BTC. At the then price of about $71,000, this transaction was worth approximately $2.2 million.
The scale of 31 BTC is negligible compared to Strive’s total holdings of over 20,000 BTC. But the act of "restarting after a two-month pause" is more important than the number 31 itself.
🏦 2. Who is Strive? — The "Bitcoin Treasury Rising Star" on Nasdaq
Strive is a Bitcoin treasury management company traded on Nasdaq under the ticker ASST. It was founded in 2022 by former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. In September 2025, it officially transformed into a Bitcoin treasury company through a merger with Semler Scientific.
Holdings scale: As of mid-August, Strive held 20,246 BTC, valued at about $1.27 billion. This ranks it among the top ten publicly held Bitcoin companies globally, second only to Strategy and a few mining firms.
Core strategy: Funds Bitcoin purchases by issuing SATA perpetual preferred shares, with dividend yields between 12.75% and 13%. Strive measures success by how much Bitcoin corresponds to each common share, rather than traditional profit metrics.
⏸️ 3. Why the two-month pause?
Strive’s last intensive accumulation was in Q2 2026—purchasing a total of 6,236 BTC and achieving a 24% Bitcoin yield. After that, it entered a "silent period" lasting over two months.
Possible reasons include:
1. Waiting for a more favorable price range
Strive’s average purchase price in May-June was between $65,800 and $76,988. Bitcoin traded sideways between $62,000 and $65,000 in July and early August, so Strive held back, possibly waiting for clearer trend signals.
2. Adjustment in preferred stock financing rhythm
With SATA preferred shares yielding as high as 13%, each additional BTC purchase increases ongoing dividend payment pressure. Pausing accumulation may have been to optimize capital structure.
3. Change in CEO’s public statements
On August 19, Strive CEO Matt Cole publicly stated: "Bitcoin is historically low at the current price range, and Strive is willing to take risks to continue buying BTC here." The next day, they acted—this was no coincidence but a commitment fulfilled.
🔥 4. Three signal meanings of the restart in accumulation
1. The $70,000 range is recognized by institutions as a "reasonable entry zone"
Strive’s last intensive buying was in the $65,800–$76,988 range; this restart happened after Bitcoin broke above $71,000. This shows that $70,000 did not deter institutional buyers—in fact, they consider this price historically "low."
2. Collective action among Bitcoin treasury companies
In the same week, Strive’s CEO publicly defended Strategy’s selling of BTC—"Strategy only sells BTC to support STRC returning to par value, enabling long-term accretive BTC purchases." Strive’s restart, combined with Metaplanet’s acquisition of Super League with 2,100 BTC and Strive’s own mid-August purchase of 79 BTC, shows Bitcoin treasury companies are collectively increasing positions.
3. Shift from "waiting" to "acting"
Though 31 BTC is small in scale, it ended a silent period of over two months. In institutional behavior, a "restart" often matters more than scale—it means decision-makers believe the direction is clear.
💎 5. Summary
Strive’s 31 BTC accumulation is a small-scale operation with high signal value. After a two-month pause, the restart came right after the CEO’s public call of a "historical low"—this Nasdaq-listed company holding 20,246 BTC is showing its stance on $70,000 Bitcoin through action.
When Strive, Metaplanet, and Strategy—the "Bitcoin treasury companies"—begin collective action, the market signal becomes clear: institutions are not waiting but choosing the right time to enter. The scale of 31 BTC is small, but the "restart" itself is the real signal. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin approaching a golden cross and ETFs seeing consecutive days of net inflows, this signal comes at just the right time.
$BTC Currently, BTC is oscillating around 72000. Whether going long or short, the risk-reward ratio is poor. The core conflict arises from three layers of divergence: the market, capital, and chips. First, the difficulty in going long: the main driving force behind this round of rally is the short squeeze in futures contracts, not continuous inflows from spot incremental funds or ETF institutional funds. After the surge, ETF funds began short-term profit-taking, and institutions did not continue buying at the high levels; daily indicators have entered the overbought zone, and a large amount of historical trapped selling pressure is accumulated in the 73800‑75800 range. Chasing longs directly risks buying at a pulse high, and once sentiment turns, there is significant short-term retracement potential. Even if the medium- to long-term trend is upward, the safety margin for chasing highs in the short term is very low. Next, the difficulty in going short: long-term whales continue to transfer BTC from exchanges to self-custody wallets, and bottom chips remain firm, with a large amount of latent buy orders around 70000‑70200. If U.S. Treasury liquidity expectations heat up again, a rapid rally could occur at any time, making high-level short positions vulnerable to cascading liquidations again. The market is still hot now, with active speculative funds on the scene, so shorting against the trend requires withstanding strong upward uncertainty. On the derivatives side, it is even more intuitive: the previously concentrated liquidations of short positions have basically been cleared, open interest continues to rise, and new longs and shorts are entering simultaneously at high levels, increasing the probability of two-way liquidations. Opening positions in either direction risks rapid back-and-forth stop losses. The optimal approach at this stage is not to rush into one-sided bets but to focus on two confirmation signals: first, BTC spot ETFs re-entering #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #✅Logic supporting continued rise 1. Macro liquidity warming: CPI and PPI have been falling consecutively, employment data cooling down, and September rate hike expectations have significantly eased. US Treasury yields are declining, improving the overall risk asset environment, with Bitcoin benefiting directly as a high-risk asset. 2. Spot funds entering the market: Large net inflows have appeared in the US Bitcoin spot ETF, not just leveraged short covering but real institutional buying, providing spot support for the market. 3. Technical resistance broken: The previous resistance at 72000 was broken with volume, and the 69000‑70000 range has turned from resistance into important support. If it holds, the target above is the 75000‑77000 historical resistance zone. ⚠️Risks hindering the continuation of the rally 1. Fed internal divisions persist: Officials remain divided, with some still stating the need for rate hikes. If US data rebounds later, the market will reprice rate hikes, US Treasury yields will rebound, and the coin price will quickly face pressure and fall back. 2. Part of this rally comes from short liquidations: A large number of shorts were forcibly closed in a short time, bringing passive buying. After the short squeeze, leveraged buying power will weaken, making a pullback after the surge likely. 3. Heavy selling pressure at high levels: The 72000‑77000 range has accumulated a large amount of historical trapped positions, leading to a flood of sell orders to break even at this level. 4. Unexpected variables: US regulatory news, geopolitical conflicts, and major US stock market corrections will all directly drive BTC volatility.$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
Speaking of US stocks and then about Bitcoin, the expected reversal at 3 AM to pick up people didn't happen. Bitcoin surged straight to the classic 72,000 level, which has blocked us for more than half a year into 2024.
The 72k level is not only the EMA200 daily line but was also once regarded as a strong support after the 120k peak correction, holding high hopes. But as everyone knows, Bitcoin lingered around 60k for a long time and even once fell below 60k.
From the crypto market logic alone, the repeated unsuccessful tests of 62k and the continuous macro easing indeed suggest it should rise. Moreover, once it starts to rally, the speed will be very fast, leaving most family members still playing in US stocks behind. After all, according to the altcoin pump-and-dump logic, the faster the pump, the more money saved—first, retail investors can't get on board in time; second, after chasing the rally, retail investors have high costs, which easily forms a chip peak at the high level, acting as resistance for the next rise or fall.
Yesterday, from the contract perspective, I observed that open interest didn't rise but fell. Today's information shows this rally is led by spot trading. Generally, when the market is driven by spot, it tends to be more sustained and harder to fall. Also, there are no signs of exhaustion now, and below 80k, there isn't any significant resistance. So, provided the macro environment doesn't worsen (there's still about a week of time difference anyway), this round still has enough time and momentum to test the weekly EMA100 resistance around 75-78k. #Today's big bullish candle is not about how much it rose, but about who is quietly turning around.
BTC has reclaimed 70,000, even touching above 71,000 intraday; ETH is even more aggressive, rising nearly 20% within 24 hours, with SOL and XRP also joining the rally. On the surface, it looks like a broad rally, but two details are worth pondering: first, the U.S. Treasury has expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repos, indicating a real change in liquidity expectations; second, Trump is pushing crypto regulatory bills again, reducing policy uncertainty. Coupled with a cascade of short liquidations, the speed has been further amplified.
But I won't shout "full bull market" just because of one bullish candle. After a sharp rise, there will inevitably be divergences. The real core question is whether BTC can solidify the 70,000 psychological level into genuine support. If the pullback doesn't break it, then rotation among assets like ETH, SOL, SUI, DOT, and OKB is worth looking forward to.
The most classic mistake in crypto is doubting everything when prices fall and forgetting risks when prices rise. My stance is clear: the market can go crazy, but your position sizing cannot; the trend is bullish, but discipline is the bottom line.
So, are you betting on BTC to keep charging, or do you think ETH will take over? See you in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SOL In the past couple of days, BTC has surged from around $64,000 all the way up to $72,000, and many people's first reaction was: the bull market is back. But I want to know one question more: who exactly is buying? I looked at this rally in a broken down and found that at least four funds are currently driving BTC simultaneously. The first category, most obviously the U.S. spot BTC ETF, saw a single-day net inflow of about $517 million on August 19, the largest single-day inflow in over three months. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT product alone attracted about $285 million, clearly the main force behind this round of institutional capital flow. And this isn't a day market. From August 17 to 19, IBIT saw cumulative inflows of about $589 million, and Fidelity's FBTC also saw nearly $200 million in inflows. This indicates that at least some funds have indeed started to return to the BTC spot market. (Big Shopping Finance) The second category is large whales. On-chain data shows that large holders have cumulatively added about 43,000 BTC over the past 60 days. This is quite interesting. If it were just retail investor FOMO, there would be no need for whales to accumulate shares in advance. Now that major players are increasing their positions again, it suggests that some smart money may have started betting on a phased market reversal. The third type, and also the fiercest force behind this surge: the bears themselves have become buyers. On August 19, BTC suddenly broke above near $65,000, with over $1 billion in BTC short sales in just one hour🚨 $BTC & $ETH ARE SURGING — BUT IS THIS A REAL BREAKOUT? $BTC has pushed toward $69.5K, while $ETH climbed to around $2,259. The momentum is strong, but it’s still too early to declare the start of a new bull cycle. Part of the move appears linked to Treasury buybacks, easing yields and more than $1B in short liquidations. But there’s an important distinction: this is not QE. The Fed remains cautious, while real yields are still elevated. For $BTC , I’d want to see: 📍 Sustained strength abov1. The three core logics behind this round of rally (with supporting data) 1. Dual support from IP nostalgia + AI Agent narrative opens up story imagination space $BEAT (Audiera) relies on the classic Audition IP, with over 600 million registered users, bringing a huge mass base. The later transformation into an AI Agent participatory economy narrative packages AI virtual idols, AI music generation, and on-chain game economy into a brand-new track narrative. In early August, the project roadmap for BEAT 2.0 Phase 3 was announced, accelerating the landing progress of the AI agent economy. Within 7 days after the news, the token price rose from 0.28 to a high of 0.49, an increase of over 75%. The heat quickly surged to the top of contract hot searches, becoming a short-term market hotspot at that time. 2. Deflationary buyback mechanism brings capital confidence, large token unlock bearishness directly absorbed The project uses platform revenue weekly to buy back and burn BEAT, continuously tightening the circulating supply; on August 1, a major token unlock occurred, releasing 21.25 million tokens at once, worth about $67.8 million, accounting for 6.9% of the circulating supply, nearly 1.8 times the daily average trading volume at that time. Normally, unlock events trigger selling pressure, but on that day, the token price rose 16% against the trend. Whale funds entered the market to fully absorb the selling pressure. On-chain monitoring showed over $25 million was absorbed from the secondary market in a single day, giving the market very strong bullish confidence and becoming the most important confidence turning point in this rally. 3. Contract short squeeze + speculative capital clustering, short-term capital sentiment drives the rally Before the rally started, the contract market accumulated a large number of low-position short orders The funding rate of perpetual contracts continues to hover near zero, which on the surface appears to be a balance between longs and shorts, but in reality is a "waiting mode" after leverage has been compressed to the extreme. A low funding rate indicates that neither side is willing to pay a premium for holding positions—this neutral state is rare in trending markets. However, this neutrality will not last forever. When one direction breaks through first, the funding rate will quickly turn positive or negative, triggering leveraged chasing orders and forming a self-reinforcing acceleration. A low funding rate is not a safety signal; it is the "starting gun" most easily overlooked before a market move begins. Historically, the funding rates before the breakouts in April 2019 and July 2020 were at similarly extreme lows, followed by price moves far exceeding most people's expectations. The current round of low funding rates has lasted even longer, indicating a greater suppressed demand for leverage. At the moment the direction becomes clear, chasing funds will flood in like a stampede, pushing prices to levels most people dare not imagine. Meanwhile, observing the futures open interest on major exchanges still slowly climbing shows that even with low funding rates, traders have not exited but are holding their positions—this "static crowding" once activated will release energy very intensely. 🚨 THIS RALLY LOOKS BROADER THAN A $BTC BREAKOUT The current move looks more like a broad repricing of liquidity risk than a Bitcoin-only rally. $ETH is leading with a +17.27% 24-hour move, while $BTC and $SOL are both up around 10%. That kind of rotation can signal expanding risk appetite rather than isolated demand for Bitcoin. But there’s an important caution: $BTC briefly broke above $72K before slipping back below the level. That makes chasing the first move less attractive. With the FOMCurrently, $SPCX has fallen below the $135 IPO price under the pressure of the second round of 319 million shares unlocking, dipping intraday to around $131. The core issue lies in the immediate liquidity drain caused by early chip sell-offs and the cautious stance of bulls due to continuous unlocking throughout the year.
From the chip perspective, the 319 million shares unlocked this round account for about 7% of restricted shares, which is completely different from the first round of 912 million shares unlocked on August 6, after which the stock price rose 23%. The intraday drop of over 6% and breaking below the $135 IPO price indicates a weakening market willingness to concentrate on absorbing shares, with sellers fleeing becoming the dominant force in the short-term market.
The driving factors are ranked as follows: first, unlocking selling pressure directly squeezes long positions; second, the shadow of multiple unlocks before year-end and the long-term supply with 88% of shares released before 2027; third, the key $130 defense level diverts short-term speculative funds.
The bullish scenario triggers if the stock price holds $130 and recovers $135. The variable to watch is whether intraday buying can quickly absorb this 7% unlocked chips. If it retakes $135 with reduced volume, the bearish scenario fails.
The bearish scenario triggers if the daily close breaks below $130 with increased volume. The variable to watch is the speed of sell-off and the early pricing of subsequent unlocking expectations. If the price breaks above $140, the bearish scenario fails.
The continuous increase in chip supply is suppressing market risk appetite, with fund positions shifting from chasing highs to cautious defense.
The most critical observation variable in the next 7 days is whether $SPCX can hold the $130 level and the turnover reconstruction efficiency around $135.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升In the HYPE surge phase, 麻吉黄立成's short-term trade of 17,100 HYPE was liquidated within 1 hour, demonstrating a position play based on expectation differences. When dividing the factors already reflected in the price from those not yet reflected, where does this movement represent pre-reflection of expectations, and where does it start to represent real demand? The facts confirmed from the original text are as follows. On August 20 at 4:52 AM, 麻吉黄立成 opened a 17,100 HYPE buy position at $69.84. The position size was approximately $1,196,000. Then at 5:15 AM, he fully liquidated the same size position, taking profits. The buying background he mentioned was that proposals related to TRUMP drove up the prices of HYPE and TRUMP. This can be classified as short-term trading reacting to a single event news flow. The meaning of this trade in the market structure is clear. It is typical behavior of short-term speculative funds exploiting expectation differences immediately after an event, rather than real demand or passive allocation. Entered at $69.84 and liquidated within 1 hour Coinbase CEO Launches Another Bold Prediction: Bitcoin to Reach $400,000 by 2030—What's Different This Time?
📊 1. Core Viewpoint: 4-6x Growth in 4 Years, From $70,000 to $400,000
On August 20, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told Fox Business: "I believe that in the coming years, say by 2030, we are very likely to see Bitcoin reach $300,000 to $400,000."
Based on the current Bitcoin price of about $70,000, this implies a 4-6x increase over 4 years—an annualized compound growth rate of roughly 44%-55%. This is not Armstrong's first time making a sky-high prediction. In 2025, he posted on X that "I believe by 2030 we will see Bitcoin at $1 million each." Compared to that, the $300,000-$400,000 forecast is a "conservative version."
🔥 2. Why Is Armstrong Speaking Out Now?
1. Bitcoin is approaching the $70,000 mark
As of August 20, Bitcoin has rebounded from the early August low of $62,500 to nearly $69,000-$70,000. Strategy (MSTR) rose nearly 12% that day, Coinbase up 9%.
2. Regulatory clarity is emerging
Armstrong just came out of a White House crypto industry meeting and gave an extremely optimistic interpretation of the government's stance. He noted that about 67 million Americans hold crypto and said, "The industry is ready to push the CLARITY Act over the finish line." The Senate is set to hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15; if passed, it will provide a clear regulatory framework for the crypto industry.
3. He believes the bull market is at the doorstep
On the same day, Armstrong told CNBC, "I think we are very likely standing at the threshold of the next bull market."
📈 3. What Does $300,000-$400,000 Mean Among Institutional Forecasts?
Armstrong's $300,000-$400,000 prediction sits in the mid-to-conservative range of major institutional forecasts:
· Ark Invest: Bear case around $300,000 by 2030, base case $710,000, bull case $1.5 million
· Standard Chartered: Maintains $500,000 target for 2030
· Google Gemini: Forecast range $300,000 to $2.4 million, midpoint about $500,000 to $1.2 million
· VanEck and others: Base case around $500,000 to $760,000
Armstrong's forecast roughly aligns with Ark's bear case and Standard Chartered's long-term target, representing the lower bound of mainstream institutional predictions.
🧩 4. What Conditions Are Needed for $400,000?
Achieving the $300,000-$400,000 target requires multiple factors to align:
1. Regulatory certainty materializes
The September 15 procedural vote on the CLARITY Act is the first step. Research firm FM Intelligence predicts that if the act passes before the November midterm elections, Bitcoin could rise to $135,000-$200,000 within a year. The farther $400,000 level would require this act or other regulatory frameworks to open systemic channels for institutional capital.
2. Continued inflow of institutional funds
Bitcoin spot ETF net assets have grown from hundreds of billions at the start of the year to $84.3 billion, with a net asset ratio of 6.08%. The ongoing expansion of ETF channels is the core fuel for price appreciation.
3. Improvement in macro liquidity
The start of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and a weakening dollar—these macro conditions will collectively drive capital from traditional assets into risk assets.
4. Supply-demand shock from the halving cycle
Bitcoin's next halving in 2028 will reduce block rewards from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC. Historically, the 12-18 months following the previous three halvings saw significant price surges.
⚠️ 5. Risks: Remember, He Also Called for $1 Million Last Year
Armstrong's predictions should be viewed cautiously. When he called for $1 million in 2025, Bitcoin was around $60,000-$70,000. Now that he has lowered the forecast to $300,000-$400,000, it shows even the most optimistic insiders are adjusting expectations based on market realities.
Meanwhile, Coinbase's premium index remains negative, indicating that demand in the U.S. spot market has not substantially recovered. Glassnode also points out that the current rebound is still in the "capitulation phase," with true seller exhaustion yet to appear—the realized profit-loss 90-day moving average is 0.75, and historically it needs to fall below 0.5 to confirm a bottom.
💎 6. Summary
Armstrong's $300,000-$400,000 forecast is more pragmatic compared to his $1 million 2025 version and aligns broadly with Ark's bear case and Standard Chartered's long-term targets.
A 4-6x increase in 4 years is not out of reach—historically, Bitcoin rose 19x in 2017, 6x in 2021, and 4x in 2024. But the premise is: the CLARITY Act passes, institutional capital keeps flowing in, and macro liquidity improves. If these conditions don't materialize, Bitcoin at $70,000 could just continue sideways. Predictions are predictions; the cycle is Bitcoin's only true friend.
$BTC $COIN #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 US stocks and gold both surged, but the root cause is not the stock market, it's the US Treasury!
Recently, the 30-year US Treasury yield skyrocketed, causing global funds to sell long-term bonds, and the market began to question the US's long-term debt repayment ability.
Seeing the long-end rates about to spiral out of control, the Treasury stepped in to stabilize the market: issuing short-term Treasury bills to buy back long-term Treasuries, forcibly pushing down long-term yields.
Once the news broke, US stocks rebounded, gold surged, and BTC and ETH rallied in sync.
But to see the essence: the US has not truly reduced fiscal spending; it is just juggling debt to postpone the current crisis.
The Fed still talks about balance sheet reduction and tightening, but the Treasury is signaling with actions that it will backstop the market if trouble arises.
Under this implicit expectation of easing, inflation is hard to fully suppress, which is the fundamental reason why risk assets and gold rise together.
A reminder to domestic friends: international gold prices surged to $4500, but domestic gold prices did not hit new highs simultaneously.
The appreciation of the RMB has eaten up most of the gains, so the returns we actually get are discounted.
Now, no matter how hawkish the Fed's rhetoric is, without actual rate hikes implemented, the market no longer buys it. Bitcoin and gold strengthen in sync, breaking through the $72,000 mark. After reaching a new intraday high of $72,801 on Thursday, Bitcoin retreated to around $71,450 to $72,000, rising more than 9% in the past 24 hours and accumulating a 12% gain this week. Gold also rose in tandem to around $4,540. The main factors driving the market include the U.S. Treasury's announcement to make long-term bond repurchases a routine operation, with potential for further expansion. This move has previously helped lower yields; although some term yields rose today, they still support risk assets. The continued weakening of the U.S. dollar index also supports Bitcoin's performance. The market is focused on the key $72,000 level. Analysis shows a concentration of leveraged short positions near this level. If the price effectively breaks through and holds above it, it could trigger short covering, further amplifying upward momentum. In the past hour, crypto shorts have been liquidated by about $243 million, with daily liquidation scale significantly expanding. Funding conditions are improving simultaneously: the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw an inflow of $517 million in a single day, the largest since early May; the Ethereum ETF saw an inflow of $189 million. Bitcoin has risen about 15% so far this month, poised to record its first positive August since 2021, with a quarterly gain of 23%. On other fronts, some Bitcoin treasury-related preferred shares have rebounded to par value; strong manufacturing data contrasts with weak retail giant earnings, pressuring tech stocks. Overall, Bitcoin continues its upward trend driven by improved liquidity expectations and capital inflows. Going forward, attention should be paid to the breakthrough of key resistance levels and yield trends.
$BTC #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ US stocks and gold rise sharply in sync, the root cause of the market is all hidden in the US bond market🚨
#US Treasury expands long-term bond repurchase, 30-year US Treasury yield falls from high levels
Recently, the 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to a temporary high.
Essentially, global capital is selling off US long-term government bonds, and the market is doubting the US's long-term debt repayment ability. Bonds are being sold off, prices fall, and yields continue to soar, which poses a huge risk to the US debt system.
Seeing long-term rates on the verge of losing control, the US Treasury directly intervened.
Operational logic: issue short-term US bonds to raise funds, use this money to buy back long-term government bonds from the market, forcibly suppressing long-term US Treasury yields.
Once the news broke, the entire market became restless. US stocks began to rebound, international gold XAU surged significantly, and the crypto market exploded simultaneously, with BTC and $ETH experiencing violent rallies.
But many only see the rise and fail to understand the underlying real contradictions.
To truly solve the debt problem, the proper way should be to reduce government fiscal spending. But with the election cycle approaching and repeated debt crises, large-scale fiscal cuts are almost impossible politically.
The US has chosen not to solve the root cause but to use debt juggling to postpone current risks and shift pressure to the future.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve verbally maintains its stance on balance sheet reduction, signaling monetary tightening externally.
But the Treasury's move sends a very strong signal to the market:
Once a debt or financial market crisis occurs, it will decisively step in to support; fiscal constraints have been significantly weakened.
This directly puts the Federal Reserve in an awkward position.
On one side, it needs to maintain policy strength to fight inflation; on the other, the fiscal side is forced to stabilize the bond market. The Fed's policy independence is being questioned.
The market has formed a new consensus: when the market can't hold on, there will be forces to bail it out.
The underlying logic of this bailout is equivalent to implicit easing, making it difficult to completely eliminate inflation pressure.
This is also the core underlying logic for the simultaneous strength of US stocks and gold.
⚠️ Here is a key point that domestic investors often overlook:
International dollar-denominated gold has surged to $4500, with a strong upward trend.
But measured in RMB, domestic gold prices have not simultaneously hit new highs.
A large part of the gains has been directly eroded by RMB appreciation.
The same gold surging in dollar terms means actual domestic returns will be discounted, which must be clearly understood.
The current situation is very clear:
No matter how hawkish the Fed sounds verbally, as long as there is no substantial rate hike implemented, the market no longer fully trusts its statements. Every time it rises, people shout that institutions are running away, but this time the script might not be so smooth.
According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $517 million, and Ethereum ETFs simultaneously had a net inflow of $189 million, both marking the largest single-day inflows in several months.
The key point is that this round of capital inflow closely follows BTC's epic short squeeze rally. Institutional funds did not take obvious profits at the rebound highs; instead, they continued to increase their positions, which is a clear bullish signal. BTC and ETH are the direct beneficiaries, and the continued net inflows into ETFs remain a core indicator supporting mid-to-long-term price levels, indicating that institutional allocation demand is still heating up.
But don't equate large single-day inflows directly with a continuous upward trend. Such inflows often appear during the chase phase after sentiment recovery. The next 2-3 trading days are more critical: if positive inflows continue, the trend remains bullish; if inflows quickly slow down or even turn into outflows, be cautious of concentrated profit-taking that could trigger a short-term pullback.
The current position is not suitable for blindly chasing highs; the capital support during pullbacks to support levels is more worth watching.
Source: CoinDesk
#BTC #ETH #Crypto100W The Trump family holds 37.5% of the WLFI token shares through related entities, with the early circulation rate long maintained in the 20%-30% range. The vast majority of tokens are concentrated in the hands of the core founding team and early institutions.
2. Potential Impact Logic of Trust-Related Factors on WLFI Token Price
1. Indirect Transmission of Offshore Trust Tax New Regulations
The offshore trust pass-through taxation policy, effective August 2026, significantly increases the tax cost of cross-border asset transfers. Some offshore trust entities holding WLFI may adjust their holdings for compliance needs, causing minor short-term selling pressure. However, due to the high concentration of WLFI tokens, such selling pressure has very limited actual impact on the token price.
2. Chip Locking Effect of Family Trusts
The Trump family places large amounts of WLFI tokens into family trusts for long-term holding, which can greatly reduce selling pressure from circulating market supply, decrease the risk of large short-term dumps, provide implicit support for the token price, and prevent extreme irrational price crashes.
3. Market Sentiment Disturbance from Trust-Related Information
If rumors spread that large amounts of WLFI tokens are being transferred or reduced through trusts, it will directly trigger panic selling by retail investors, causing a rapid short-term price drop; conversely, if positive news emerges about long-term holdings locked through trusts, it will help push the token price into a phase of impulsive gains.
3. Core Observation Points for Future Trends
• The key focus is on the unlocking schedule of WLFI tokens held by the Trump family through trusts, which is a critical variable affecting the medium- to long-term token price trend. $BTC Bitcoin just broke above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price.
Short-term holders are now aggressively taking profits.
If Bitcoin closes two consecutive weekly candles above this level, it would confirm the start of a new bull market.
If not, we may simply be watching the 2018 pattern repeat itself.The SEC's issue with tokenized stocks is essentially not that "the rules aren't ready," but that "the power transfer isn't complete."
The real subtext of Tenev's open letter is: Robinhood is already running 190 tokenized stocks in 120 countries, with technology, liquidity, and users all fully operational. U.S. residents can't use it, not because it's impossible, but because the SEC doesn't allow it.
Why not allow it?
It's not a technical issue; it's a jurisdictional issue. Are tokenized stocks securities, commodities, or something new? The CLARITY Act aims to solve this problem—who regulates and how. But the bill has been stuck in the Senate for over half a year, and the SEC is waiting for Congress to set the rules so it can find enforcement grounds within the existing legal framework.
Tenev chose this moment to speak out because the SEC postponed the "innovation exemption" plan for the second time five days ago. What he's waiting for is not "SEC approval," but a "redefinition of the SEC's jurisdiction."
How long will this process take? No one knows. But one thing is certain—tokenized stocks are already running overseas, Robinhood's overseas users are trading, Ondo is making markets on-chain, and RWA transfer volumes have doubled. Capital won't stop waiting for anyone.
When the CLARITY Act is finally enacted, the SEC will have a clear basis to open a compliant channel for tokenized stocks. But the bill hasn't passed yet, and the market is already moving. The direction is certain; only the speed depends on Congress.
$BTC $ETH #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue? $BTC Core reasons for the rapid rebound in the cryptocurrency market yesterday (combined with US policy news from August 19-20)
1. The White House sends industry-friendly signals, legislative expectations significantly heat up
1) Trump met with executives from leading crypto companies like Coinbase at the White House, publicly urging Congress to quickly pass the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act). The core of this bill is to clearly classify crypto assets as securities/commodities, delineate SEC and CFTC regulatory authority, and end long-term regulatory ambiguity; the market believes that once implemented, the industry compliance path will be cleared, attracting more institutional capital.
2) Publicly stated studying the feasibility of the US government officially holding Bitcoin, while promoting the offshore decentralized contract platform Hyperliquid to seek compliant operations within the US, giving the market strong policy optimism.
Note: The bill is only being pushed forward and has not yet been voted on by Congress; it is expectation-driven, not yet law.
2. SEC introduces new regulations to lower compliance thresholds for token issuance
The US SEC proposed new rules: qualifying startup projects issuing tokens can be exempt from securities registration processes, reducing compliance costs for startups, alleviating market concerns from past SEC strict regulation, and improving industry sentiment.
3. US Treasury expands long-term bond repurchase, marginal improvement in macro liquidity environment (important macro policy)
The Treasury announced it will at least double the scale of 10-30 year US Treasury bond repurchases, to be implemented in September.
- Direct effect: long-term Treasury yields fall, the dollar weakens;
- Logic: the attractiveness of high-yield Treasuries declines, funds will partially flow into high-risk assets like Bitcoin, ETF inflows significantly increase, and trading volumes of Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT rise notably.
This is not Fed money printing QE, but a bond market liquidity support operation; the market interprets it as a signal of marginal liquidity easing.
4. Technical short squeeze (market amplifier)
A large number of short bearish positions accumulated during the previous consolidation phase; after positive policy news, prices quickly rise, triggering forced liquidation of many shorts. Liquidation equals passive buying, further pushing up the coin price, creating a "buy as it rises" short squeeze scenario, with massive short liquidations in 24 hours, amplifying the rebound.
5. Institutional funds flow back with the trend
Dual catalysts of regulatory friendliness and declining yields accelerate net inflows of institutional ETF funds; US crypto-related stocks (like Coinbase) also surge, creating positive feedback that drives the entire crypto market rebound. Short version:
🇺🇸 Trump’s “Choke Point 2.0” statement is bigger as a policy signal than a headline.
The U.S. appears to be shifting from restricting crypto exposure toward integrating BTC, stablecoins, tokenization and on-chain finance into the financial system.
For BTC, the bigger opportunity may be moving from simply being a Wall Street asset to becoming part of the next-generation dollar infrastructure.
The war may be ending—but the real competition is just beginning.Recently, the US stock market doesn't seem as easy to trade as before. As a gambler, I've been doing terribly. However, in the past two weeks, storage stocks have surged crazily, aerospace occasionally pulses, and the entire tech sector has been fluctuating back and forth, wearing down my morale. My own experience trading and watching the market: the fundamentals are not lying, but the stock prices have already priced in the story in advance. I still say, don't mistake a rebound for a permanent bull market. Here are some organized views: 📦 Storage chips (SNDK, MU, WDC, SK Hynix) This wave in storage is a market genuinely fed by AI computing power; HBM and server memory are tight, original manufacturers control production to maintain prices, and the industry cycle reversal is real. But the problem is: the positive news has already been fully priced into the stock prices. ✅ Short term (1-3 months) Price increases will continue, but the pace of price hikes will gradually slow down. There are now many profit-taking positions piled up; as soon as earnings guidance slightly misses expectations, there will be a big pullback immediately, just like the plunge in August before. Two scenarios: • Optimistic: cloud providers continue to exceed capital expenditure expectations, and the sector continues to fluctuate and push higher; • Pessimistic: earnings disappoint, funds collectively cash out, and prices retest support levels to digest the bubble. ✅ Medium term (3-12 months) AI servers' demand for storage remains, and the tight supply of HBM is likely to continue until 2027. But don't expect a straight-line surge; the norm is a wave up, a pullback, and a fluctuating upward trend. Risk point: when major manufacturers expand production capacity by 2027, supply will increase, and the cycle turning point will quietly arrive. ✅ Long term (over 1 year) A$BTC
Current BTC market situation, I still have remaining positions personally, and I plan to prepare for two scenarios:
(1) STH-RP right-side confirmation: If BTC can hold above the short-term holders' real cost price STH-RP, then follow the trend on the right side.
(2) After recently backtesting various data models, the reason I still have 40% of my position unfilled is: I can't let go of the traditional four-year halving cycle in my heart. In past halving cycles, the MVRV trend clearly overlapped. Currently, August 23 to the end of August is an important observation window. If BTC does not show a significant pullback during this period, it indicates that this cycle is deviating from the traditional four-year cycle structure.
(3) Another important reason is that in the traditional four-year cycle, the time from top to bottom is basically one year. By this calculation, early October would be the BTC bottom. However, now that institutions have entered, the cycle rhythm may really be deviating from the traditional four-year cycle structure. By the end of this year, it will be clear whether this cycle has changed.
(Purely personal crypto trading sharing, not investment advice, each responsible for their own profits and losses) #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落
I am Brother Ci, the U.S. Treasury has taken action.
On August 19, the Treasury announced it would raise the liquidity support repo cap for long-term government bonds with maturities from 10 to 30 years from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective from September 9 to November 4. After the announcement, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell from the high range of 5.29%–5.32% to about 5.18%–5.20%. BTC immediately started rising from around 63,000, breaking through 69,000, gaining over 11% in 24 hours. The Treasury's repo itself is not QE and does not directly inject base money, but it changes the entire market's liquidity expectations.
Previously, the sustained rise in long-end yields continuously suppressed valuations for stocks, gold, and BTC. When the Treasury announced the expanded repo, the biggest macro pressure suddenly eased, and the market directly repriced all risk assets. But it should be noted that the repo is mainly used to improve liquidity and debt management and is not equivalent to a Federal Reserve rate cut. The U.S. fiscal deficit is close to $2 trillion, and the pressure from bond supply has not disappeared; inflation expectations remain near 4.3%. If the repo can only temporarily ease volatility, the market still has to face the return of long-term interest rate pressure.
The Treasury repo is the trigger for this short squeeze but not the start of a long-term trend. The direction remains unchanged; the pace is changing. Brother Ci has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $HYPE *Bitcoin $BTC Latest Update August 21, 2026, Afternoon*
*1. Price & Key Data*
- *Current Price*: $68,400 USD fluctuating, +5% in 24 hours
- *High*: $69,500, last night hit a new high since early June
- *Key Levels*: Resistance above at $69,000–$69,300, support below at *$68,250*
- *High Liquidity*: Large long stop-losses clustered between $64K–$65K. If $68,250 breaks, they will be quickly swept
*2. Reason for Last Night's Surge*
1. *Short Squeeze*: Thin liquidity + many shorts, a $5K spike from 64K to 69.5K. $1.3 billion liquidated network-wide, 85% shorts
2. *Macro Turns Dovish*: August CPI hits 2021 low, non-farm payrolls negative growth. Market bets 70% chance of rate cut in September
3. *US Treasury Easing*: Treasury 30-year repo doubled, risk appetite rebounds
*3. Today's Market Focus*
1. *ETF Fund Flows*: Net inflow/outflow of ETFs during US session will decide if 69000 can hold. This is the biggest variable today
2. *Sentiment Divergence*: Among 1,555 traders, 975 shorts and 580 longs. 62.7% still short = another possible short squeeze anytime
3. *Rotation*: BTC moves first → ETH follows → $HYPE and similar “cash flow” altcoins catch up. Market shifts from “storytelling” to “$BTC 🩸 "BTC Meat Grinder Lab" | August 21 BTC Today's Sharp Commentary
BTC has already broken through 70K, but the biggest danger now is not the bears, but the bulls starting to believe "breakout = takeoff."
BTC is currently around $72K, with a 24-hour increase of about 6%, and a 7-day increase of about 12.5%; yesterday it once approached $72.6K.
CoinGecko +1
🧨 01｜This rise is backed by real factors
Yesterday's BTC breakout above 70K was not just a simple technical squeeze.
After the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, the dollar weakened and long-term yields briefly fell, clearly benefiting risk assets; meanwhile, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $517M, hitting a multi-month high.
Reuters +1
So this rise has three fuels:
Fiscal liquidity expectations ↑
Dollar ↓
ETF funds ↑
This is healthier than a pure short-term short squeeze.
🐂 02｜However, 72K is not the end, it’s a test
The most important thing for BTC now:
Turn 70K from a "breakout level" into a "support level."
🟢 Hold above 70K → Bulls ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🚀 Break through 72.5K with volume → Trend continues to strengthen ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🟡 Pullback to 68K–70K without breaking → Healthy rotation ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔴 Fall back below 68K → Beware of false breakout ⭐⭐⭐⭐
☠️ Break below 66K → Short squeeze may start to realize ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🐳 03｜What really needs caution: yields rising again
Although Treasury repurchases brought liquidity expectations to the market, it is not QE.
Moreover, U.S. bond yields have risen again, and the market still worries about the U.S. fiscal deficit and long-term inflation.
Reuters +1
So the biggest macro risk for BTC now is not:
"Suddenly no positive news."
But rather: $SOL $ETH briefly paused after breaking through $2300 in a short time, with the residual effects of large spot buy orders and a chain of short liquidations converging on the market.
The price surged straight from the $1900 range to $2336, instantly piercing through the densely accumulated short liquidity below $2100, then retreated to around $2290 for consolidation.
Amid the derivatives stampede, a BlackRock client made a single spot purchase of $122 million, marking the highest single-day increase in nearly seven months.
The large-scale spot absorption broke the previous chip balance, directly triggering passive liquidation of short positions, forming a capital and liquidation resonance-driven upward impulse.
If the new buying can maintain absorption strength in the $2200 to $2250 range, digesting previous floating profits, the bullish structure still has momentum to continue pushing higher.
Once the price breaks below the $2150 support without subsequent spot inflows, short-term momentum will quickly weaken and enter a deep technical correction.
This rally was driven jointly by spot and squeeze; if the subsequent order depth cannot keep up, the current strengthening logic will be disproved.
Next, just observe whether the net spot inflow above $2200 can maintain continuity.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？On August 20, Bitcoin broke out of a six-week range of volatility, briefly surpassing $71,000, after which the market began discussing a familiar technical term: the golden cross. But the most interesting part of this rally isn't that the two lines on the moving average are finally about to meet, but how the breakout happens. After the range was broken, about $3 billion in crypto short positions were passively closed. Many people interpret this situation as confirmation of a new bull market, but I think it's better not to rush. Short-term covering can push prices up quickly, but they themselves aren't responsible for keeping prices there. There are three signals you really need to watch. First, see if you can hold onto spot stock. The six-week consolidation leaves behind a group of traders who repeatedly sell high, buy low. After a breakout, the most important thing is not how high the price sells intraday, but whether the price can close steadily above the key range and find real buying support during pullbacks. Without success, breakthroughs can easily turn into expensive fireworks. Second, check if the leverage has been stacked back up. After the bears are cleared out, funding rates, open interest, and short-term sentiment often heat up quickly. If the price increase is mainly driven by new leverage, the next wave may reverse and go long. A healthy rally doesn't require every candlestick to survive with higher financing costs. Third, see if the macro is giving you a tailwind. On that day, the market was simultaneously watching a weaker dollar, liquidity expectations, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Bitcoin's breakthrough does not live on an isolated exchange; the pricing environment for risk assets changes, and technical forms are reinterpreted. The golden cross is a lag confirmation tool, not a starting gunMarket Quick Read
Bitcoin current price is $72,516.20, up 6.77% in 24 hours. The amplitude closed at 6.97 percentage points, indicating considerable volatility.
The 24-hour high was $72,566.00, the low was $67,830.30, with a trading volume of $1.15B, showing active turnover between bulls and bears.
Across the market, 128 assets rose, 24 fell, with a rise ratio of 84.2 percentage points, clearly reflecting market sentiment.
In the DeFi sector, focus on $UNI, trading volume is relatively small; first watch if smart money makes a move.
In the L2/sidechain sector, focus on $ARB, volatility has narrowed; wait for directional choice before acting.
Top 3 gainers are $ACE +43.15%, $BOME +41.80%, $NEIRO +24.64%, smart money has already placed their bets.
Top 3 losers are $GRVT -11.19%, $AEON -10.61%, $DOS -9.13%, profit-taking traders have abruptly exited.
Conclusion: The number of rising and falling assets sets the tone, the leaders in gains and losses set the direction; don’t go against smart money.
Data comes from OKX public spot market, for informational purposes only, not investment advice.
That’s all for now, the rest is up to the market. Today I saw many friends thinking that Bitcoin's rally is related to BlackRock's article, or to US interest rates, and some even said it was notified by Trump's private API. None of these are certain, but the timing of BlackRock's article doesn't seem to match; it was published two days ago when Bitcoin's price was still around $64,000.
Moreover, if you look closely, you can see that BlackRock's promotion direction has never changed; they have always encouraged investors to allocate 1% or 2% of their investment assets to $BTC. This encouragement has actually been going on for a long time. If I remember correctly, last month there was even a dedicated video where BlackRock's investment director specifically talked about investing in Bitcoin.
Of course, regardless of the reason, Bitcoin's rise is good for the entire industry, but whether this is a "bull return" is still uncertain. From the trend, it is clear that it is still in a consolidation phase. Personally, I think if there is to be a real stage of bull return, it is very likely to happen after the midterm elections.
Of course, this is just my personal opinion, and my view may not be correct. Short $BTC, short $ETH, then short yourself!
1. Ridiculously extreme data fabrication: boasting a nearly 30-day win rate of 91.41%, with the curve soaring 231.56% early on, only to plummet vertically in a straight line, wiping the entire month down to -5.5%. The ultra-high win rate relies purely on taking small profits to exit and holding through big losses without cutting losses; a single one-sided market move completely erases all gains. The so-called guaranteed profit strategy is as fragile as paper.
2. Pathetically meager assets, with a total net worth of only $35.75, equivalent to just over two hundred RMB. If there were truly hardcore trading methods capable of doubling, any attempt to slightly increase or roll over positions would have grown the account beyond three figures in USD. In short, even the trader doesn’t believe this strategy can withstand large capital and only dares to use pocket money to fake data and deceive.
3. The perfect curve is completely exposed; the early smooth, drawdown-free chart is a model created by filtering and deleting losing orders. Real market conditions could never produce such a trend. The final cliff-like plunge reveals the true nature of the trading, and all previous impressive returns were illusions.
4. The scheme of scamming retail investors with fake performance cannot be hidden. A paper expert with just a few hundred dollars in capital runs accounts, builds fan groups, and shows off results, but the main business is not trading for profit. They rely on a 90% win rate and doubled returns to fool novices into copy trading. When others enter with heavy positions and suffer big losses from volatility, this person just switches to a new beautified curve to continue harvesting the next batch.$BTC 🩸 "BTC Meat Grinder Lab"｜Today's Macro
The macro narrative for BTC has changed today.
Yesterday, the market was still discussing "Will the Fed be more hawkish?" Today, the real main theme has become:
The U.S. Treasury is actively cooling down the long-term U.S. bond market, while the dollar weakens and BTC surges past $70,000.
The U.S. Treasury announced it will increase the scale of long-term bond repurchases to at least $4 billion each time, up from the previous cap of about $2 billion; after the announcement, the dollar weakened and risk assets reacted significantly, with BTC briefly breaking through $70K.�
Reuters +1
🏦 01｜The real positive factor is not "rate cuts"
The most noteworthy aspect of this BTC rally is not:
The Fed cutting rates soon.
But rather:
The Treasury starting to actively stabilize the long-term bond market.
Previously, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield once surged to about 5.33%, putting clear pressure on risk assets from long-term rates.�
Binance +1
Now that the Treasury is expanding repurchases, it signals:
The U.S. does not want long-term financing costs to continue spiraling out of control.
The significance for BTC is:
Long-term yield pressure ↓
Dollar pressure ↓
Risk appetite ↑
BTC valuation space ↑$ETH From 1,906 to 2,330, I almost couldn't hold this $ETH position...
$ETH surged from 1,906 to 2,330 yesterday, a 24-hour increase of 18%. I had a long position with a cost of 1912, and last night at 1928 I almost added to it, but I held back.
Today it pulled back to $2,250, and I reduced half of my position.
It's not that I am bearish, but after a jump of over four hundred dollars in one go, profit-taking is inevitable. ETF net inflows have continued for two days, and the staking rate hit a new high, all solid evidence of a good foundation. However, open interest and funding rates in futures are rising simultaneously, showing clear leverage involvement, and the market is a bit overheated. Chasing at this time is like taking over the positions of those who have already profited.
I plan to add back my position around 2,100 on the pullback. I won't specify exact levels, just the idea:
After a big rise, don't rush to chase higher; first lock in some profits and let the market move on its own. Keep control in your own hands.
The biggest lesson this time is entering the market too hastily. Kuzi thinks entering at 1,912 was fine, but wanting to add when seeing the rise is an old bad habit. I gave myself a slap but fortunately held back. In trading, restraint is more important than courage. Being able to resist adding to a position is as hard as being able to cut losses decisively.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 BTC & ETH Surge: Bull Run or Short Squeeze?
$BTC touched $69.5K while $ETH surged to $2,259, but it’s too early to call a new bull cycle. The move appears driven partly by Treasury buybacks, easing yields and over $1B in short liquidations. Yet this is not QE. The Fed remains cautious, while real yields stay elevated. $BTC needs sustained strength above $69K and genuine spot demand—not just leverage. The rally is powerful, but the next move still needs proof. 🔥 BTC SURPASSES 72K: STRONG TREND BUT AVOID FOMO
BTC just had a very strong surge and reached the 72.5K zone. The short-term structure favors buyers, but the price has moved quite far, so volatility or a retest is completely normal.
If it holds 70.5–71K, BTC still has a chance to target 73K, then 75–76K. Conversely, losing 70K could cause the price to revisit the 68–69K range.
Those who already hold positions should prioritize managing their trades. Those without positions don’t need to chase a steeply rising candle.
$BTC The money in the early session wasn't in a full-scale attack; it was picking lines to strike.
QQQ fell 0.6%, IWM dropped 1.1%, small caps are weak; but SMH and SOXX are slightly up, indicating some localized support in semiconductors. Oil rose 2.6%, gold is also up, the market still carries defensive and geopolitical flavors, not a comfortable broad rally.
Currently, the clearest three areas holding money are crypto, optical communications, and AI custom chips. $COIN and $MSTR both rose about 8%, showing the strongest elasticity line, but this is already the first wave at a high level; going forward, only watch for pullbacks that don't break the opening price, no chasing straight up. $LITE rose over 4%, cleaner than COHR and CRDO, indicating some localized funds in optical communications, but it hasn't spread to the entire sector yet. $MU is also strong; the memory line is still intact.
Pre-market priority candidate $MRVL has currently realized about half the gains. Google's chip collaboration is a real catalyst; intraday it pulled back from 229 to 242, with 246.6 as today's key resistance. Only a volume breakout above 246 counts as a secondary confirmation; falling back below 238 means funds are just treating it as a news-driven rebound.
$SMCI, $DELL, and $VRT in the AI server line are not performing well today; don't force them to be considered as spreading.
In the next 2-4 hours, watch if MRVL can surpass 246, if COIN/MSTR can hold high sideways, and if oil and gold continue to suppress the index. #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 Brothers, look at the data. SanDisk rose 628% from $235 at the start of the year to $2,354, ranking first among S&P 500 components. Then it quickly reversed, dropping to $1119 at one point, with a drawdown of over 50%. After Investor Day on August 13, the two-week rebound exceeded 40%. Yesterday, it surged and closed at 1785, and today it hovered around 1700. Surge, halving, rebound, after three waves, bulls and bears are completely torn apart. Analyst: The target price ranges from 1300 to 3250, a difference of 1.5 times. Of the 16 analysts, 13 are calling for a "buy," but target prices range from $1,300 to $3,000. The most optimistic offer $3,250, while the most pessimistic offer only $1,000. The average target price is about $2,220, but the dispersion is absurdly high. For the same company, some believe another 40% drop is reasonable, while others think an 80% increase is just the beginning. Hedge funds: some are adding positions, some are clearing out. Rob Citrone's Discovery Capital increased its position by 12% in the second quarter, and Rokos Capital increased by 28%. David Tepper's Appaloosa directly sold 280,000 shares. Renaissance Technology cut over 99% of its position, dropping from 800,000 shares to just 4,980 shares. Core Disagreement: Has the Cycle Peaked, or Has the Genes Changed? Bearish people say—this is a commodity cycle. Memory chips are a highly cyclical industry; historically, after surges, there are always sharp declines. SanDisk's Q4 revenue 51% quarter-on-quarterRWA shifts gears silently
Ondo's single QQQon transaction of $2.32 million, Robinhood Chain's 500 million deposits, Ethereum carrying 70% of RWA—these data points haven't trended because they lack "narrative." But they represent a deeper reality: traditional finance is anchoring Ethereum through "compliant stablecoins + tokenized assets." This is not speculative hot money but structural accumulation. Once the CLARITY Act clarifies the compliance path for RWA, these accumulations will switch from "gray experiments" directly to "standardized business." By then, ETH's price will realize it has long been infrastructure, only its pricing hasn't caught up yet—this lag is precisely the biggest expectation gap. Onboarding traditional assets won't wait for a crypto bull market; they advance at their own pace, and Ethereum happens to be the most mature settlement layer on this track. RWA growth is not narrative-driven but yield- and efficiency-driven, making this momentum more durable and less dependent on market sentiment. BlackRock's BUIDL fund and Franklin's on-chain money market fund are continuously expanding on Ethereum; these funds won't withdraw due to candlestick fluctuations—they value settlement efficiency and compliance transparency, which are Ethereum's most irreplaceable moats.$BTC
This wave surged, breaking through the short-term traders' cost line (currently at 72k) all at once.
This is the third time in this bear cycle that the short-term traders' cost line has been touched; the previous two times it was pushed down.
Those were at 98k and 82k respectively...
Yesterday it broke through 67k, marking the third time, and currently there is a 4000-point margin between 71k and 67k..
It looks like the possibility of holding steady is pretty good..
So for now, short-term bullish outlook can continue.
However, it is still some distance from the bull-bear dividing line of the long-term cycle (such as the 4-year cycle) TMM, which is currently at 76k..
If it can break through the 76k TMM like it did the 67k level later on, that might truly be the time to call a bull market return. Storage profits have gone crazy, and profit sharing has begun. How profitable is this round of storage? SK Hynix directly gave a figure: 40 trillion KRW, about 28.6 billion USD. The company has officially announced that it will repurchase about 24.07 million shares over the next 3 months and completely cancel them. This is the largest stock repurchase and cancellation plan in the history of Korean listed companies. Even more aggressively, SK Hynix is raising its shareholder return policy: more than 50% of the cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2027 will be used for repurchase, cancellation, and dividends. Where does the money come from? Storage. The HBM and memory market cycles have rapidly accumulated cash for SK Hynix. As of Q2, the company's net cash has reached about 69 trillion KRW. Today, Samsung also reportedly is preparing a new shareholder return plan exceeding 100 trillion KRW, which may include special dividends, but it has not been officially announced yet. The most outrageous aspect of this storage cycle is no longer just chip price increases. Rather— the money earned is starting to be distributed to shareholders on a large scale. $SKHYNIX $SNDK $MU $OKB is now $106, with a circulating supply of 21 million tokens. The contract authority has been relinquished, marking a hard cap. Most platform tokens are still playing the buyback and burn gimmick, but OKB directly burned 65.25 million tokens at once, sealing the ceiling.
The trading volume is $60 million, not explosive but stable. X Layer TVL continues to grow, and on-chain active addresses rank high among platform tokens. OKX has surpassed hundreds of millions of cumulative transactions, and DeFi protocols like Aave and Uniswap also have significant locked assets. ICE made a strategic investment with a $25 billion valuation, providing endorsement from traditional finance.
100 has become psychological support, and around 105 is recent resistance. If $BTC holds steady, there is still room for OKB to catch up. Compared to platform tokens like BNB and GT, OKB's ecosystem narrative leans more towards on-chain infrastructure, not just exchange discount coupons.
The short-term risk is market sentiment: if BTC falls from $69,500, OKB will also struggle to remain independent. But in the mid to long term, with supply locked, ecosystem expansion, and institutional backing, OKB remains one of the cleanest stories among platform tokens.
This kind of token is not suitable for watching daily price fluctuations; it's better to hold it there, then turn off the software and wait for the market to reprice! #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 $BTC $ETH In the crypto world, when people talk about the "biggest KOLs," attention often focuses on two very different major figures.
The true "Godfather of Crypto" is Michael Terpin. This founder of Transform Ventures, praised by CNBC as the "Godfather of Crypto," is famous for his remarkably accurate "Four Seasons Theory" on Bitcoin cycles. He recently boldly predicted that Bitcoin might drop to the $42,000 range before the next rally, firmly believing it will hit new highs before the 2028 halving, making him the real "cycle operator" in the eyes of top players. Little Terpin
The more viral "King of Traffic" is Justin Sun. This founder of TRON is well-versed in Web3 traffic strategies, with his most talked-about move being the extravagant purchase of 140 million RMB worth of "Trump Coins," becoming the top holder and the "number one big boss" on the leaderboard. He was invited to a private dinner with Trump, taking the speculation and marketing art of cryptocurrency to the extreme.
One predicts the market, the other creates hype. One is the "Godfather" who speaks with hardcore analysis and historical track record, the other is the "number one" who turns KOL status into top-tier social capital with real money. Together, they form the two most captivating faces of this circle. Crypto is undergoing a significant shift: the market is moving from "storytelling" to "looking at revenue." As of August 20, Beijing time, the total global crypto market capitalization is approximately $2.27 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $50.38 billion. BTC accounts for about 56.3%, and stablecoin market capitalization is around $302 billion. BTC once surpassed $72,000 today, ETH rose to about $2,270, and market risk appetite has clearly rebounded. (CoinGecko) However, this rally should not be simply understood as a new comprehensive altcoin season. What is more noteworthy is that capital is rediscovering assets with "real demand that can continuously generate cash flow." BTC/ETH: Institutional funds remain core On August 19, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $517 million, and the ETH ETF had a single-day inflow of about $189 million, marking ETH's largest single-day inflow in nearly 10 months. Funds are first entering the most liquid assets that institutions can easily allocate. (BeInCrypto) L1: From narrative competition to real usage SOL, ETH, and other highly active public chains truly need to prove not TPS stories, but whether transaction volume, fees, stablecoin settlements, and application retention can be sustained. Solana still holds an important position in DEX trading volume, application fees, and network fees, but the market is beginning to pay more attention to whether this revenue can be converted into long-term ecological value. (Galaxy) DeFi: Revenue becomes the core metric again AAVE, UNI, and other protocolsBitcoin is trading around $72,233, and this move is hard to ignore. After spending weeks trapped in a heavy range, $BTC has finally pushed back above the $70K psychological zone with strong momentum. The broader market is now watching whether this breakout can turn into a sustained trend rather than another short-lived spike. What matters next is not simply how high BTC can go, but whether buyers can defend the breakout area. If BTC holds above $70K and continues printing higher lows, the door