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advertising business.
The company’s own guidance is Q3 revenue of $12.86 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%. Operating margin is expected to be 33.2%, up 5 percentage points from 28.2% in the same period last year. Both revenue and margin are rising, but the growth rate has clearly slowed compared to previous years. The market’s concern is that Netflix’s subscription growth has peaked, so what will support it going forward? Hello brothers and sisters, I am a PhD.
In the intervals of closely watching the BTC market, you can observe the unusual movements in the precious metals market. International spot gold broke through the $4170 mark, rising 1.6% in a single day; silver showed even stronger explosive power, with an intraday surge of 3%.
This capital signal is far more meaningful than simply focusing on the fluctuations of the coin price. Currently, global safe-haven funds are continuously flowing into the gold and silver markets. In contrast, Bitcoin only found support and began to rebound after dipping to 79,700 points the previous night, completely failing to absorb this wave of safe-haven buying.
The market has long propagated the idea that Bitcoin is equivalent to "digital gold." But whenever panic spreads and capital makes real choices, BTC’s movement often resembles a highly elastic risk asset following Nasdaq fluctuations rather than a safe haven asset. This market divergence has repeatedly occurred multiple times.
If you are trading with leverage, be clear-headed: do not be misled by various stories in the market, always prioritize tracking real capital flows. The strengthening gold price and the pressure on Bitcoin are the most straightforward market answers right now.
So I want to ask everyone, as of today, do you still recognize Bitcoin as having safe-haven properties?
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 $BTC $ETH $SOL "Small Wealth Brings Peace" Weekly Review (10/10–10/15): The Bullet Strategy Really Worked This Time—Stay Calm When Deeply Trapped, Add Positions to Lower Cost, Unwind on Rebound, Take Profits and Exit, Completed the Full Cycle, Account Turned Positive.
1. Results First
This week, the asset account turned positive with a cumulative profit of +¥416.61. As of October 15, the total book profit is +¥5,430.72. I’m trading contracts, and all these profits come from contract positions. At the worst, the account dropped -4.7K in a single day, but thanks to a violent rebound on the 15th, it recovered sharply. After the rebound, I basically cleared my positions to lock in profits, leaving only the gains to continue running. The total realized P&L from contracts over the past 7 days is -¥948.85, mainly due to operational errors. Overall, this was a week where the strategy fully took effect.
2. What I Experienced This Week
The 10th and 11th were quite normal with small gains of +470 and +144 respectively, a good rhythm. On the 12th and 13th, the account started to pull back, -210 and -708, with two consecutive days of slow decline. I followed the bullet strategy to add positions downward. On the 14th, the account dropped -4.7K in a single day, the toughest day this week. By then, I had basically used up the money in hand for adding positions; if it dropped further, I had no funds left to invest and had to hold steady.
Then on the 15th, the market violently rebounded with a single-day gain of +5.4K, and the account quickly recovered. All the positions I added were fully recovered. After the rebound, I basically cleared my positions, leaving only profits to continue running. There was also one accidental click causing a loss of about 1,500, purely a slip of the hand unrelated to the strategy.
3. Logic and Advantages of This Strategy
This week, the bullet strategy truly worked, not just luck. First, my judgment of the oversold area was accurate. The points where I added positions from the 12th to the 14th were generally good, and when the rebound came, most positions were saved, proving that this selection logic stands up to real market testing. Second, my mindset and execution were solid: at the worst point on the 14th with -4.7K, I didn’t cut losses or panic but held as planned. This is the most challenging part of the strategy, and I held firm. Finally, the handling after unwinding was decisive—no greed, basically clearing positions to lock in profits, leaving only gains to run. Stock selection, mindset, and closing out—all three aspects were done well this time. This is the first time the full cycle of this strategy has gone so smoothly, which is the biggest gain this week.
4. But I Have to Be Honest with Myself
I must acknowledge the achievements and also the problems, which are quite concentrated, just two.
First, the operational error can’t be overlooked. The 1,500 loss wasn’t from the market but from myself. A slip of the hand, basically a lack of discipline, with fingers faster than the brain. This kind of loss is the most frustrating and should never happen—the money earned by the strategy can’t be lost due to a slip.
Second, the fund planning for adding positions can be more precise. On the 14th, I almost couldn’t add more, not because of liquidation risk, but because the bullet strategy had used up all available funds. If the market dropped further, there would be no room to operate. This shows that the number of layers and size per layer for adding positions were still "winging it" without a total plan. This time the judgment was right and the market cooperated; next time with the same position strategy, the reserve should be more ample.
5. Execution Checklist (Must Answer All Before Next Opening)
Before opening a position, first clarify whether the market is oscillating or trending. If you can’t identify oscillation characteristics, do not add a second bullet. If there is no specific numeric standard for the oversold indicator and it’s just a feeling, opening a position is prohibited. The total number of bullet layers and size per layer must be fixed in advance, and under no circumstances should the total added positions exceed 80% of available funds. The remaining 20% is reserved as a contingency for judgment errors, to avoid running out of funds for adding positions again. Further, decide in advance at which layer to stop adding if no rebound occurs and switch to holding; this boundary must be drawn clearly. Also, set a forced stop-loss at a certain total loss level. Set profit-taking points in advance, specifying at which rebound levels to take profits in batches. Finally, any "clear all" or "close all" button must have a double confirmation and a 3-second pause before key operations—this week I already paid a 1,500 tuition fee for this.
6. Summary in One Sentence
The bullet strategy really worked this time: accurate judgment, firm holding, decisive profit-taking. The two lessons to improve are—fingers must be slower than the brain, and keep one layer of bullet reserve.PPI exploded, but BTC snatched back 80,000: the sell orders may have been exhausted early
Last night, PPI year-on-year was 6.3%, month-on-month 1.3%, commodity prices rose 2.6%, energy surged 10.8%; service prices also increased by 0.8%. This is not just a simple oil price disturbance, but a simultaneous heating of production costs and service costs, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to maintain a hawkish stance.
Normally, US Treasury yields should continue to rise, and BTC should follow suit and fall below 80,000. But the market played out the opposite script: US Treasuries did not continue to push higher, BTC dipped to a low of 79,775, then quickly reclaimed 80,000, and is now rebounding near 82,294.
This does not mean PPI has become bullish; rather, the CPI drop, leverage liquidation, and pre-data risk-off reduction of positions have already released some selling pressure in advance. After the data release, there was no new selling pressure, and short-sellers taking profits actually turned into buying.
However, it is still too early to call a reversal. 82,643 is the 24-hour high and also the confirmation line for this round of recovery. A volume breakout above and a pullback holding above 82,000 would qualify for a target of 83,500–84,000; if it fails to break 82,643 and falls back below 81,800, this move looks more like position repair after a sharp drop. If 79,775 is lost again, watch for support between 79,000 and 78,000 below.
$BTC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #OKX星球话题来啦 October 16 SUI Watch: As trading heats up, will on-chain activity speed up as well?
This morning, SUI's rolling 24-hour spot trading volume on Binance was about 69.1 million USDT, with the price rising approximately 2.50%. The trading on screen is lively, but exchange volume and actual on-chain operation are two different things; one number cannot serve as proof for the other.
Sui organizes on-chain assets and states into objects. Objects independently controlled by individuals can follow a fast processing path; objects shared by multiple people require consensus ordering. These two types of objects handle different tasks, and whether applications can run in parallel also depends on whether users are competing to modify the same shared object.
It's like everyone editing their own files versus everyone scrambling to edit the same spreadsheet: underlying support for parallelism does not mean every application is equally fast in all situations. Official documentation also warns that write contention on the same shared object may reduce throughput.
Another easily overlooked detail is storage fees. Creating or modifying objects requires paying related fees; deleting or shrinking objects can refund part of the storage fee; immutable objects cannot be deleted, so no such refunds are possible. This is a cost arrangement for data occupancy and cannot be directly inferred as a reason for the coin price to rise.
Next, we will observe real application usage and congestion situations, while also paying attention to contract, liquidity, and price volatility risks, and not take today's trading heat as full evidence of technical implementation.
$SUI #SUI
For informational purposes only, not investment advice. ⭐⭐⭐Brothers, this position is cheating $ETH @OKX星球
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Tesla Q3 deliveries reached 486,500 vehicles, better than market expectations but down 2.1% year-over-year. The earnings report after the market close on October 21 is the real highlight; good delivery numbers do not equal improved profitability.
The market focus is no longer just on sales volume; the core is on whether automotive gross margin and cash flow can recover. Selling more is not enough; the profits that remain ultimately determine valuation.
There is ample imagination space for the Robotaxi and Optimus stories, but heavy R&D consumption makes it difficult to convert into substantial revenue in the short term.
Currently, the overall market environment is weak, with South Korean stocks plunging, storage chips like SanDisk and Micron under simultaneous pressure, and tech stocks no longer supported by pure growth narratives.
TSLA and XTSLA need solid performance to justify their valuations; deliveries are just the beginning, and profitability recovery is the real test answer.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus 10/16 On-Chain Observation | “Whales Didn’t Sell” ≠ No Selling Pressure on Meme.
Bitquery's revised Solana $ANSEM tracking on 10/15 (holding snapshot at 10/15 06:19 UTC) shows: two addresses classified as Ansem-related by transfer behavior collectively hold 580.4 million tokens (58.2%); the two main DEX pools have 11,720 SOL on the SOL side, worth about $1.2 million at that time. No direct sales were observed from major addresses on Solana DEX, but active addresses cumulatively distributed 73.9 million tokens to other wallets; the first 9 recipients had sold about $2.62 million as of 10/15.
My judgment: holding market value ≠ actual exit depth. Simplifying pressure simulation with a large single pool, if 1% of the related holdings above were sold, the pool price might drop about 62%; this is not an executed sell order, nor the market-wide transaction price.
Going forward, watch the real DEX sell orders after related address transfers, the pool's SOL reserves, and net buy orders: if depth expands, the impact should be reassessed; if transfers increase but buy orders do not, tail risk rises. Address attribution is only behavioral inference and cannot be used to blame individuals. Bitcoin $BTC What's next?
Yesterday: I predicted it would go up ("bad news fully priced in is good news"), but the price first dropped to 79,800, then pulled back to 82,600 — it was really frustrating.
1. Compared to yesterday, the bulls are stronger now
Long liquidation intensity below: about 1.5 billion USD → about 2 billion USD
Short liquidation intensity above: about 2.5 billion USD → about 1.2 billion USD
2. Key price levels to watch
81,500: first dense zone below, breaking here triggers the first wave of strong liquidations
80,000: next zone below, the buffer starts to thin here
83,000: first cluster of shorts above
83,800: breaking here squeezes shorts the hardest
3. Path projection
Downward: break below 81,500 → dense long zone at 80,000 → this buffer is thin, prone to chained strong liquidations
Upward: break above 83,000 starts squeezing shorts → 83,800 → 84,500
4. My judgment
Looking at today's data, the bulls are stronger, and most bad news has been digested, so I tend to expect a rise.
Don't ask why, just know that I'm still holding my longs!
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ PONS is still up 8%, but the trading volume in this morning's hour is more than 80% lower than last night's peak.
As of 9:11 AM Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $0.34, with 24-hour trading volume around $8.38 million. Last night at 11 PM, the full hour trading volume was about $1.115 million, and at 8 AM this morning about $191,000; the price also dropped from the 24-hour high of 0.355 back to around 0.34.
My judgment is that the trading volume has not yet caught up with the surge from last night. Looking only at the 24-hour price increase can easily mistake past volume for current momentum. There are sell orders about $50,000 at 1% above the current price, so watch out for slippage when chasing the price.
I am more focused on the volume in the upcoming full hours. If volume surges again and the price holds above 0.355, the current cautious judgment should be adjusted; if volume remains low, the price increase itself does not provide much confirmation.
$PONS $BTC Yesterday I thought about it, even if there is huge negative news, BTC can still hold steady at 80k. The bears have tried several times before but failed to break through, so basically this area is a bottom range. As for the Federal Reserve, I actually lean towards only one rate hike this year, and there will probably be a wave of rebound after the midterm elections. In the short term, there is also a speech by Walsh this morning; even if it is somewhat negative, going long to around 80k is the move. If there is positive or neutral news, just play it cautiously; a pullback is an opportunity. If no chance to get on board is given, then only chase the rally. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ The denser the data, the easier it is to misread the direction
Tonight at 20:30, five US data points will be released within the same minute.
The market is not focused on good or bad, but on the magnitude.
The original rule states:
Initial claims over 200,000 count as weak, retail below 0.3% counts as cooling off.
At the moment of release:
Five numbers come out together, directions often conflict.
$BTC moves first, $ETH follows with a shake.
Common misreading:
Previous value dropped from 1.1% to 0.3%, looks like a decrease.
But the drop is not enough, it still counts as bad news.
On the market side, $BTC is stuck between 80,000 and 88,000.
88,000 is the entry cost from two years ago; once it goes up there, sellers appear.
Below 80,000 hangs the ETF cost line around 81,500.
If broken, the most recent layer of support disappears.
Holding heavy positions before data release is equivalent to leaving the direction to luck.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#$BTC $ETH Market Core Summary
Today's market is highly abnormal and disconnected: AI/tech plunged sharply in early trading, then rebounded due to Jensen Huang's remarks, but overall remains weak; US Treasury yields ignore hot PPI/CPI and strong retail sales, with clear stock market divergence; oil price surge is ignored; gold and Bitcoin are the only clear safe havens.
Stock Market: Overnight KOSPI plunged, US tech futures led the decline. Jensen Huang's comments boosted NeoCloud stock and bonds, driving a rebound. The Dow Jones and Russell 2000 rose over 1% for the day (rotation between value and rate-sensitive sectors), Nasdaq was the biggest loser (from down 1.7% to near flat), S&P slightly up. Healthcare led gains, tech and energy weakened, long-term institutions sold heavily net, hedge funds deleveraged. S&P supported by 50-day moving average.
Energy: WTI broke above $98, driven by hurricane production cuts, large inventory drops, and geopolitical conflicts. Brent was relatively moderate; Brent has become a "pure sentiment contract," with severe divergence between paper and physical markets.
Others: Dollar declined then stabilized; gold broke above $4100; Bitcoin found support and rebounded near $80,000. Consumer staples forward valuations are now more expensive than tech stocks; defensive rotation may be overcorrecting.
Core Logic: Goldman Sachs points out that the previous "long AI/short US bonds" positions are closing at both ends, credit concerns are seeping into AI capital expenditures, market interprets this as an economic growth shock. Tech and AI credit remain troubled; gains mainly come from defensive rotation. S&P forward P/E ratio fell back to about 21x, possibly providing a buffer for earnings season, but "AI savior" rhetoric failed to reverse the overall trendIn the past week, Bitcoin experienced a series of intense macro shocks, causing its price to fluctuate significantly. On October 14, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September CPI data, which broadly exceeded expectations. What alarmed the market even more was the spread of inflation: besides gasoline prices rising 9.1% month-over-month, housing costs also increased by 0.4% month-over-month, marking the fastest growth in five months, while prices for entertainment, used cars, education, airfares, healthcare, and clothing all saw increases. This data points to a less optimistic signal that energy prices are transmitting through transportation costs to other sectors, and core inflation is stickier than the market anticipated. Before the data release, the market priced in about a 20% chance of a Fed rate hike in October. After the data release, the CME FedWatch showed the probability of a rate hike surged to nearly 50%, then fell back to 43.7%. As of yesterday, this probability further dropped to 27.7%. The expected sharp volatility reflects divisions within the Federal Reserve. The New York Fed President considers another rate hike this year appropriate, while the San Francisco Fed President stated the Fed may need to raise rates further but implied no need to act in October. After the macro data release, Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $81,000 intraday on October 14, approaching the lower bound of its recent trading range, and last night it briefly fell below the $80,000 mark. $BTC From on-chain data, this correction has not yet evolved into full panic; Glassnode's latest report shows that realized losses among long-term holders are lower than the peak on August 12.#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
$BTC $ZEC $1. CPI rebounds, PPI surges month-on-month, upstream costs will continue to pass through, future CPI still faces upside risk.
2. Retail sales exceed expectations, US consumer resilience is strong, the economy is not cooling down, providing realistic conditions for the Fed to continue tightening.
3. Market consensus: no rate cuts expected this year, rate cut expectations are pushed back directly to 2027, the current debate is whether to raise rates once more.
Two scenarios for the benchmark interest rate
🔴Scenario 1: Hold steady in October, raise rates by 25bp in December (main baseline scenario)
- Current status: just completed a round of rate hikes in September, two consecutive meetings with direct hikes, there are internal divisions within the Fed; long-term bond yields have already risen spontaneously, indirectly helping the Fed tighten financial conditions, leaving room for a pause in October.
- October meeting: maintain the current benchmark rate unchanged, but the meeting statement and officials’ remarks are overall hawkish, keeping the option for future hikes.
- December: if subsequent employment and inflation do not show significant decline, implement another 25bp hike, raising the rate range.
🟡Scenario 2: Direct 25bp hike in October (low probability)
CPI + PPI consecutively surge, inflation stickiness is fully confirmed, the Fed chooses to continue tightening.
Market interest rate futures have already raised the probability of a rate hike in October, but mainstream institutions judge the probability of immediate action in October is not the highest.
Brothers, which scenario do you favor? Let’s discuss in the comments.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Yesterday I sold a lot of ETH long-dated put options! I think the bull market will continue; this is just a correction for now! #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ "PPI Night, The Market Awaits the 'Second Shoe to Drop'"
CPI exceeding expectations is like a cold splash of water, delaying rate cut expectations and cooling risk assets collectively. If tonight's PPI again exceeds expectations, the market will press the "double verification button." (｡•́︿•̀｡)
$BTC: After CPI, it dipped then rebounded, entering a short-term weak balance. 81500 is the intraday support, 83800 forms rebound resistance. Without buying support, the rebound is hard to sustain; if broken, downside space opens. (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
$ETH: Weakening along with BTC, still with considerable volatility. Watch if 2450 can hold, 2580 is resistance. Without capital inflow, weak oscillation continues. (╥﹏╥)
$SOL: Pulling back from highs, sentiment cooling. Around 102 is the watershed, 125 is resistance above. Holding this level allows recovery; breaking it prolongs adjustment. (｡･ω･｡)
TSMC revenue hits a new high, but profit and guidance are the next potential risks. Before PPI is released, volatility is unlikely to decrease. Don't guess the direction, watch the support, and monitor capital. Personal review only, not investment advice. (￣▽￣)~*
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 $META committed to a hundred-billion-level infrastructure investment before the success or failure of its AI products was clear, and this big bet has now reached the "acceptance moment." Zuckerberg himself admitted that the model was not fully validated before betting as much as $200 billion, and the CFO repeatedly warned that failure would have serious consequences. The money on the books is rapidly depleting: capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is $130 billion to $145 billion, and last quarter's free cash flow fell to a recent low, all spent on fixed assets that will not yield short-term returns. Although giants like Google and Amazon are also investing heavily in building data centers, Meta's aggressiveness remains the most prominent in the industry.
The market was originally focused on the Q3 earnings report released on October 21 to see if revenue could sustain this pace, but the community is already voicing doubts about its "rushed launch"—Meta Muse has high download numbers, but the 7-day retention rate dropped to 22.5%, below ChatGPT's level at the same time. The monetization path is also unclear: advertising remains the old mainstay, and whether Muse's subscription fees can support the backbone of AI returns needs to be answered next quarter. CPI and PPI both plunged, with PPI soaring to 6.3% year-on-year, directly causing severe liquidations and capital divergence in the market.
$973 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, 92% of which were long positions! Over $1.8 billion in leverage wiped out in 4 days.
Risk aversion is strong, gold surged to 4181, and the 10-year US Treasury yield returned to 5.05%. ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million in a single day, and the fear and greed index dropped from 62 to 53.
Fortunately, everything was recovered after the drop. $BTC returned to 82000 this morning, $ETH to 2450.
The first bottom was at 80400, the next two at 81000, and this time it dipped below 80000 but quickly pulled back. This indicates large genuine buy orders below the round number! Four attempts to break the bottom failed, and the short sellers were trapped for the fourth time. The bulls’ resilience is worth noting.
Next, two events with huge information flow are: the Fed Chair Warsh’s last speech before the blackout period and the Deribit options settlement. We need to watch closely.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ 10.16 Third Sister shares:
$ETH short-term alert not lifted, don’t just look at the positives. After the ETF was approved, buying momentum didn’t continue, with a net withdrawal of 783 million in ten days; in October, another 182,000 coins flowed into exchanges. The unlocked team exceeded 1 million coins, hitting a ten-month high, and the 2617 long-short line has been lost. It has dropped 39% in the past year, underperforming $BTC, and its on-chain scale is also inferior to TRON.
More attention should be paid to the awakening of old addresses: nine-year chips recharged 6,369 coins to Kraken, about 15.95 million USD; dormant wallets transferred 48,000 coins to Bitfinex. The selling pressure is not just talk.
But the mid-term logic remains intact: compliant institutions are still accumulating, Bitmine is only 77,000 coins short of the 5% target. The macro volatility caused by CPI exceeding expectations looks more like a shakeout. Don’t get off the bus in panic, keep an eye on the flow of chips.
$SOL
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Many friends watching the market tend to mistake support and resistance as precise price lines. When the price hits a certain high or low point, they immediately judge that a breakout has formed. But in reality, support and resistance are more like price zones, not points where a rebound or decline is guaranteed upon contact. A brief touch of the boundary of the range is not enough to confirm a valid breakout; the price level reached and whether it can hold afterward are two separate matters that need to be considered independently. Here, it is important to clarify the meaning of the market data itself. The rolling 24-hour indicators output by the exchange are dynamic results continuously calculated over a sliding time window, not a fixed natural day's complete closing statistics. As time progresses, earlier market segments are removed from the statistical window, causing the high and low points and the price change values to change accordingly. This means that the 24-hour volatility data seen at the moment only represents the market activity within this sliding time slice and cannot be directly equated to the full performance of a complete trading day. Let's first look at the currently confirmed market information: OKEx spot BTC/USDT latest transaction price is 82335.1 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 0.83%. The past 24-hour market volatility has been considerable, with a highest price of 82642.8 USDT and a lowest price of 79775.1 USDT. The most recent closed 1-hour K-line closing price is 82232.4 USDT, and the rolling 24-hour trading volume is 694588219.931776019 USDT. The current price#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
[Fed hawkish statements + Walsh speech window] (core bearish mainline), [Geopolitical easing expectations] (hedging bullish mainline)
1. Breaking down the news point by point
1. Harker's hawkish speech (today's biggest bearish factor)
Cleveland Fed's Harker turns hawkish again: if inflation expectations become entrenched, more aggressive rate hikes are needed, advocating for early rate hikes to suppress inflation.
The market will reprice for higher rates to last longer, possibly another rate hike, US Treasury yields likely to rise, non-yielding risk assets under pressure.
👉 This is the core bearish factor suppressing the crypto space.
2. Two geopolitical statements from Trump (emotional hedging bullish)
• Russia-Ukraine: believes there will be a final reconciliation, possibly bypassing Zelensky;
• Iran: will not send ground troops, no nuclear weapons, only possibly using non-nuclear “Mother of All Bombs” to strike targets.
Core meaning: market concerns about large-scale full-scale war and nuclear conflict risks decrease, lowering the black swan probability of energy price surges.
Geopolitical risk premium falls, which is a hedging bullish factor, but it is a verbal expectation without a concrete agreement, weak in strength and poor in sustainability.
3. Central bank governors speak in turn, Walsh's key appearance at 11:30
The Fed Chair Walsh's speech at 11:30 today is the decisive factor!
Harker is just a single hawkish voting member, Walsh's stance represents the Fed's main tone:
• If Walsh follows hawkishly, acknowledging inflation risks, combined with Harker's remarks, bearishness will be amplified;
• If Walsh leans dovish, maintaining a wait-and-see stance, Harker's words will be interpreted as an extreme personal view, bearishness digested, market rebounds.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC Last night the market saw the most important macro combo punch of the month: US September CPI, PPI, and BTC retail sales all significantly exceeded expectations. Consumer inflation, producer inflation, and consumer resilience all strengthened simultaneously. High interest rates are not just expected, they are about to be locked in for the long term.
- CPI year-over-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%)
- Core CPI 2.6% (expected 2.5%)
Consumer prices are rising again, the pace of inflation decline has been completely interrupted.
- PPI month-over-month 1.3% (expected 0.5%)
- PPI year-over-year 6.3% (expected 5.3%)
Upstream factory costs are soaring → CPI will continue to be under pressure in the next 1–2 months
Inflation is not easing, but synchronously heating up again upstream and downstream.
- Retail sales month-over-month 0.8% (expected 0.3%)
US consumer spending is unusually strong, the economy shows no signs of cooling.
- Probability of rate hike in October surged from 18% to 34%
- Probability of rate hike in December significantly increased
Mainstream institutional judgment:
October will most likely hold steady with a hawkish tone; a 25 basis point hike is certain in December.
The biggest risk in the market now is not a "crash," but: long-term liquidity tightening, rebounds facing pressure, and difficulty in sustaining a bullish trend.
Macro is strongly bearish + short-term sentiment recovery + chaotic leverage fluctuations
⚠️ Remember: volatility is not strength, it just means no crash for now.
The major trend headwind remains unchanged.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 My view on Netflix's Q3 earnings is that ad growth and operating margin will be more important than total revenue growth. The key question is whether Netflix can expand its ad-supported business without sacrificing profitability while investing in content and ad technology.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 On the eve of Netflix's earnings report release
Massive layoffs have already begun
I am not optimistic about an earnings beat
Layoffs are to protect financial data
If there is an earnings beat
Layoffs would not be necessary
The financial data would also look good Last night’s show had two acts: the first half was a ghost story, the second half a plot twist.
PPI at 6.3%, the highest in four years, hit hard, causing BTC to briefly drop below 80,000 to 79,725. Everyone thought 80,000 was gone, but what happened?
It bounced back late at night to 82,216. The Dow Jones even rose 1%, the bond market rebounded, and the 10-year yield dropped 12 basis points.
Is the bad news all out? My answer is, half of it.
The half that’s out is on the price side. The 79,725 dip was sharp but quickly recovered; there were buyers at 80,000. The bond market rebound with a 12 basis point drop in yields is the first decent good news in two weeks.
The half that’s not out is the fundamentals. CPI at 3.7%, PPI at 6.3%, both still very high.
Officials are still hawkish: Daly said we can’t just wait and see anymore, and Harker said if inflation expectations become entrenched, rate hikes will exceed expectations. On the AI side, data center bonds are being collectively sold off; CoreWeave’s bonds dropped to 80 cents on the dollar, with a 15% yield.
So is this a rebound or a reversal? It’s a rebound with some truth. Holding 80,000 is real, but inflation hasn’t peaked either. My measure is that until BTC holds above 83,000, it’s just a rebound.
My approach remains unchanged: watch the show. Holding 80,000 is the bulls’ business, not mine.
What do you think, is 79,725 the bottom for this week, or just halfway up the mountain?
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $SAMSUNG Samsung has been quite aggressive this round, dropping from 210 all the way down to 152. Yesterday's lower shadow line indicates that there was some capital support around 152. Personally, I feel it might be worth trying to go long for a bit.
Short-term resistance is near 165. If it can break through and hold above that, moving towards 180-200 should not be a big problem.
KB Securities has also spoken out, calling this sharp drop an "overcorrection" and is optimistic about a "W-shaped rebound" later. Today, the Japanese and Korean stock markets opened higher, and Samsung initially rebounded about 2%.
Against the backdrop of macroeconomic conditions and intensified industry competition, the sharp pullback in tokenized stocks related to US and Korean markets also has fundamental logic supporting it. Institutions predict that by Q2 2026, Yangtze Memory will leap to the top in global NAND shipments, and Samsung's Q3 operating profit will surge 782.5% year-over-year, setting a new historical high. Technically, they are also impressive, unveiling cutting-edge products like HBM4E and LPDDR-PIM at SEDEX 2026. The most absurd thing is the valuation: the 12-month forward P/E is only 3.3 times, even lower than the lowest point since 2010.
With such strong fundamentals, why is it still falling? Because capital is voting with its feet. Changxin Memory released a new 4F² architecture and plans to launch DDR5 by the end of the year. Institutions predict that by Q2 2026, Yangtze Memory will rank among the top in NAND shipments. This has directly scared off foreign capital, which is continuously "selling off Korea." On October 16 alone, there was a net sell-off of about 213 billion KRW. Elon Musk also joined the fray, saying China plans a major memory production expansion by 2028. The fear of oversupply hangs like a knife over the market.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix can sustain revenue growth, but the primary driver is shifting from raw subscriber volume to monetization—specifically periodic price increases, expanded Average Revenue per Member and international market growth as paid-sharing tailwinds normalize.
The ad-supported tier represents a major long-term growth engine, driven by the rollout of Netflix's proprietary ad-tech stack, expanded programmatic capabilities, and increasing ad-tier..The halving story of FIL seems like no one wants to listen anymore. When the overall market sneezes, do small altcoins really have to catch a cold? I've been staring at FIL's candlestick chart for a long time, and the feeling is not disappointment, but exhaustion. The halving narrative in the previous cycle was enough to excite the community for weeks, but now it feels like shouting in a noisy room with no one turning back. The market hasn't ignored it because it didn't hear it; it's a selective disregard.
Let's first restore the facts. FIL's own narrative is weak, making it difficult to have an independent rally. Even with a halving-level positive event, as long as BTC weakens, the price still can't hold up. This is not a dilemma unique to FIL; it's the common situation for altcoin sectors. BTC is the weather vane; when it is strong, risk appetite returns, and FIL has room to follow the rise. When it is weak, FIL's decline is often greater than BTC's, showing high volatility and poor resistance to drops. This asymmetry is the real killer.
So what is the market trading now? Not the halving expectation, but risk budgeting. Everyone hesitates whether to keep positions in altcoins; FOMO sentiment is weak, and narrative fatigue is heavy. When BTC shakes slightly, altcoins are the first to be reduced. High-volatility assets like FIL are often the first to be liquidated to raise liquidity when risk appetite contracts.
The bullish path is also clear. If BTC stabilizes and breaks upward, risk appetite warms up, and the halving narrative may be repriced, amplifying FIL's volatility and gains. But this path depends on the overall market giving a signal first; FIL itself cannot decide this.
Where is the risk? If BTC continues to oscillate downward, the halving benefit will be completely ignored, and FIL may fall#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 有可能超预期#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix can sustain revenue growth, but the primary driver is shifting from raw subscriber volume to monetization—specifically periodic price increases, expanded Average Revenue per Member and international market growth as paid-sharing tailwinds normalize.#Tokenized US Treasuries Used for Large Triparty Repo for the First Time
The headline says "used for large triparty repo for the first time," and at first, I also thought it meant the kind of US Treasuries that can be freely transferred on a public chain.
I checked The Block's paraphrase of BNY's statement: Citadel Securities bought 2-year US Treasuries on Tradeweb, BNY recorded a tokenized representation on its private ledger, settled within minutes, then used it as collateral for overnight triparty repo, exchanging it for cash from BNY. Standard US Treasury settlement is usually T+1, but here it’s compressed to the minute level.
The efficiency bottleneck lies in the custodian ledger representation and collateral turnover, not in opening another on-chain yield pool. Retail accounts can’t access this triparty setup either.
If BNY announces next week that this bond can be freely transferred on a public chain, I’ll admit I was wrong.[Robinhood Wants to Put AMC on the Blockchain, CEO Says: You Don't Decide This Stock]
AMC's CEO is clashing with Robinhood again. On the surface, it looks like a dispute between two companies, but in reality, it's about a new business: after US stocks are tokenized, who holds the issuance rights—the listed company or can the platform create its own products?
Robinhood's stock token $HOOD is issued by its Jersey subsidiary, officially stating that each token is backed by a corresponding stock, but holders do not have AMC shareholder rights. Having exposure to stock price does not equal actually owning the stock. This is the core of their endless argument.
The SEC's temporary exemption rule launched on September 17 requires relevant trading venues to notify the issuing company before listing third-party tokenized stocks and give them a chance to object. AMC is fighting over this threshold.
This issue is far more significant for the crypto market than AMC's price fluctuations. Tokenizing stocks on-chain is indeed a trend, but without clarifying who issues, who custodians, and what rights holders have, it's just repackaging traditional finance as an on-chain product. If Robinhood is forced to adjust its rules later, compliant tokenized securities platforms may truly benefit; if the current model continues, the issuing company's influence will diminish. Don't rush to hype the concept—wait to see which side the rules ultimately favor.🚨🚨🚨 Bitcoin price trends after the last three U.S. midterm elections
In 2014, the bottom was reached 71 days after the election, with a drop of -46.7%.
In 2018, the bottom was reached 39 days after the election, with a drop of -50.6%.
In 2022, the bottom was reached 1 day after the election, with a drop of -14.9%.
After every midterm election, Bitcoin prices hit new lows, creating a golden pit.
What will happen in 2026?
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Tesla's automotive and energy storage businesses have both experienced a decline in profitability. Roughly calculated using vehicle revenue and delivery volume, Tesla's revenue per vehicle in the second quarter was about $42,700, approximately $2,600 less than the previous quarter. Coupled with the overall rise in manufacturing costs, Tesla's automotive business gross margin fell from 19.2% in the first quarter to 16.3% in the second quarter.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 【Crypto Circle Script】
#Anthropic称三季度营收升至168亿美元并实现盈利
People used to say AI is a money-burning machine
The stronger the model, the more money it burns
Now finally someone is starting to make money
But the capital market is actually not that excited
It used to double in one quarter
Now growth is 45%
Wall Street is actually starting to complain it's too slow
Just telling stories is no longer enough
This is actually the same logic as in the crypto circle
The bull market trades on imagination
When the market cools down, you have to look at real skills
Bitcoin at least still has a scarcity narrative
AI companies are really competing with real technology
Today you are the industry leader
Tomorrow, when someone updates their model
Your moat might be breached
Technological revolution does not mean stock prices will always rise
A good company doesn't mean every price is worth buying
Brothers, do you think AI is a bubble now
Or is the next wealth revolution just beginning?
$BTC $ETH 🚨 ETH$ETH Alert sounded! Harker makes a strong statement: If inflation doesn't cool down, the Federal Reserve may be forced to hike rates more aggressively!
What ETH really needs to watch out for might not be a single rate hike, but the possibility of the Fed re-entering a tightening cycle! $BTC $ETH
Just now, Cleveland Fed President Harker sent another hawkish signal. She clearly warned that if U.S. businesses and households gradually develop an "inflation mindset," believing that high inflation will persist long-term, the Fed may have to take more aggressive monetary policy actions than currently expected in the future.
The most worrisome part of her statement lies in her policy approach: rather than waiting for inflation expectations to spiral out of control and then hiking rates sharply, it's better to act early and push rates to a more restrictive level.
What does this mean?
1. What ETH fears most is the market repricing interest rates
For ETH, the Fed's hawkish signals are far from irrelevant macro noise.
If inflation remains high, the market may reassess the future space for rate cuts and even increase caution about further hikes. Once U.S. Treasury yields rise and the dollar strengthens, valuations of risk assets could come under pressure. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Netflix's growth slowdown is an established reality. Advertising business is a long-term growth highlight, but its scale is limited in the short term and unlikely to explode in a single quarter. The company guides Q3 EPS at only $0.82; reaching an EPS of $0.84 requires multiple positive factors aligning, which is a high bar. I believe this quarter's EPS will most likely be less than or equal to $0.84.【Anthropic is already making money, yet AI concept stocks are still collectively taking hits】
$ANTHROPIC reported $16.8 billion in revenue for Q3, a 46% quarter-over-quarter increase, and posted its first adjusted profit—a performance so impressive it seems unreal. But on the same day, the Nasdaq $QQQ fell 1.88%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 4%, and CoreWeave plunged as much as 16% intraday. AI is clearly becoming more profitable, yet the funds speculating on AI are pulling out, which is somewhat awkward.
The market’s concern is no longer whether there is demand for AI, but how much money this business needs to burn to keep growing. Anthropic’s revenue rose from $4.73 billion in Q1 to $16.8 billion in Q3, but its growth rate slowed sharply from 143% in Q2 to 46%. Revenue is still increasing, but the growth slope has clearly shifted down.
Meanwhile, CoreWeave’s CDS soared above 1100 basis points, and bond yields are approaching 16%. Anthropic has over $518 billion in compute infrastructure commitments over the next decade. AI companies are making money, but the companies buying their equipment and building data centers are burdened with high-interest debt—this is the core of the funding panic.
This round feels more like the AI industry chain is squeezing valuations and checking cash flow, not that AI demand has suddenly disappeared. If subsequent revenues continue to grow and financing costs fall, the heavily sold compute stocks may recover first; but as long as high interest rates and debt pressures persist, just telling stories with revenue growth is no longer enough.ETH stuck at 2450. Who is actually naked between the 187 million long positions from the whale and the 6.78 million buy orders?
Checked the market this morning, Bitcoin is grinding around 2440.
Last night it dipped to a low of 2317, clearing a bunch of long positions with liquidations close to 900 million.
But this morning it bounced back to 2450, and shorts got liquidated for 87.43 million.
Longs and shorts both got hit, a back-and-forth wash.
There are two signals worth watching:
First, an ancient whale dormant for 9 years transferred 6369 ETH into Kraken at a cost basis of 14 dollars, with unrealized profits nearing 16 million.
Old coins are moving, the market is a bit nervous.
Second, Coinbase has a spot ETH buy order at 2328 dollars for 6.78 million, about 4.55% below the current price.
Combined nearby buy orders total 19.49 million, while sell orders are only 10.91 million, net buy orders exceed sell orders by 8.57 million.
Big money is supporting from below.
Even more exciting, a whale opened 187 million worth of BTC and ETH long positions with maximum leverage 4 hours ago.
ETH longs are 15,270 coins, entry price 2455, liquidation price only 2406.
In other words, at the 2450 level, bulls are holding strong; 40 points below is the line between life and death.
Right now it's grinding back and forth between 2400 and 2500.
I have no positions, watching empty-handed.
Chasing longs risks getting trapped, chasing shorts risks being stopped out, better to wait for it to choose a direction on its own.
Are you currently flat waiting, or have you already jumped in?👇
$ETH $BTC
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #BitMine增持至581.5万枚ETH，质押率约87% U.S. stocks (especially companies in mature industries) often pay dividends. The core reasons can be attributed to the combined effects of four major factors: shareholder culture, tax system, company lifecycle, and market structure. 1. Shareholder Culture: Dividends are the "hard truth" The U.S. stock market is dominated by institutional investors (pension funds, mutual funds, insurance funds) who seek long-term stable returns, and dividends are an important source of income. - Many fund contracts require investment in companies with stable dividends; - If management does not pay dividends and cannot provide evidence of high growth, they are easily pressured by shareholders or even face "voting with their feet"; - Dividends are seen as a sign of responsibility to shareholders and good corporate governance. 2. Tax System: Dividends are "not a loss" U.S. tax law has historically encouraged dividends: - 1913–1953: Individual dividend tax rates were lower than ordinary income tax rates, encouraging companies to pay dividends; - The 2003 Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act: dividend tax rates were reduced to a maximum of 15% (partially extended later), greatly increasing the after-tax attractiveness of dividends; - In contrast, stock buybacks historically did not have significant tax advantages (only becoming more popular in recent years). The result is: dividends have a controllable tax burden for shareholders, and companies are willing to pay them. 3. Company Lifecycle: Mature companies "have too much money" Many companies in the U.S. stock market are leaders in mature industries (consumer, financial, pharmaceutical, utilities, etc.): - Their growth slows down, so they do not need to reinvest all profits; - They have too much cash on hand, better to distribute it to shareholders to avoid management making poor investments ("selfFalling for three days, but the rate still clings above zero: Bulls are stubborn, but their hands are soft
Conclusion for tonight: The way it has fallen these three days is not panic, but a dull knife cutting flesh.
BTC 80,548, down 2.38% in 24h, lowest hit 80,228, just a breath away from 80,000. ETH 2,354, down 4.6%, 2400 lost. SOL 101.93, even 100 is hanging by a thread.
But the rate surprised me: BTC 0.0038%, ETH 0.0044%, all just above zero, stubbornly not turning negative. Three consecutive days of decline, yet bulls still pay interest on time.
In plain terms, they are stubborn: whether admitting mistake or not, positions are held firmly; but 0.0038% is less than half of the normal 0.01%, so no one dares to add positions. OI of 30,800 BTC unchanged, no liquidations, no bottom-fishing, the whole market is waiting for a reason.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
I'm NO on $NFLX earnings at 28c
- EPS cut from $0.84 to $0.82 last 90 days
- Only 2 beats in last 4Q, missed Q3'25 by $1.09
- Revenue growth slowest in 11Q (+11.9%)
- Stock -41% 1Y, Wells Fargo downgrade to $57
72% Yes is overpriced. Fading.
Risk 28c to win 72c.Last night’s show had two acts: the first half was a ghost story, the second half a plot twist.
PPI at 6.3%, the highest in four years, hit hard, causing BTC to briefly drop below 80,000 to 79,725. Everyone thought 80,000 was gone, but what happened?
It bounced back late at night to 82,216. The Dow Jones even rose 1%, the bond market rebounded, and the 10-year yield dropped 12 basis points.
Is the bad news all out? My answer is, half of it.
The half that’s out is on the price side. The 79,725 dip was sharp but quickly recovered; there were buyers at 80,000. The bond market rebound with a 12 basis point drop in yields is the first decent good news in two weeks.
The half that’s not out is the fundamentals. CPI at 3.7%, PPI at 6.3%, both still very high.
Officials are still hawkish: Daly said we can’t just wait and see anymore, and Harker said if inflation expectations become entrenched, rate hikes will exceed expectations. On the AI side, data center bonds are being collectively sold off; CoreWeave’s bonds dropped to 80 cents on the dollar, with a 15% yield.
So is this a rebound or a reversal? It’s a rebound with some truth. Holding 80,000 is real, but inflation hasn’t peaked either. My measure is that until BTC holds above 83,000, it’s just a rebound.
My approach remains unchanged: watch the show. Holding 80,000 is the bulls’ business, not mine.
What do you think, is 79,725 the bottom for this week, or just halfway up the mountain?
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC $ETH $ZEC I am actually more cautious about Bitcoin's short-term market than I was a few days ago.
Because the market has shown a signal that is very worth being wary of.
The US 10-year Treasury yield has clearly fallen, the dollar has weakened, and gold has risen.
According to past logic, these should have been favorable for Bitcoin.
But Bitcoin once dropped to around $80,000.
More importantly, on October 14, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of $261 million.
This made me start to doubt one thing:
The market might not be trading on liquidity easing, but on risk.
There are two completely different reasons for the decline in Treasury yields.
One is that the market expects a rate cut and funds are preparing to re-enter risk assets.
The other is that investors are scared and start buying Treasuries for safety.
If it is the second, then the yield decline may not necessarily save Bitcoin.
I will focus on observing three signals next.
First, whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $83,000 again.
Second, whether ETFs can continuously restore net inflows.
Third, when Treasury yields continue to fall, whether Bitcoin rebounds along or continues to weaken.
If the macro environment improves but Bitcoin still lacks buying interest, I will remain cautious.
But if the next round of negative news appears and Bitcoin does not fall further, with funds starting to flow back steadily, I will also change my judgment.
I am increasingly convinced of one truth:
The real bottom is not when everyone thinks it's cheap.
But when bad news can no longer scare away the last batch of holders.
My money can wait.
But the market is under no obligation to rise according to my beliefs. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
The possibility of a rate hike in October is currently around 30%, while a rate hike in December is almost certain.
The current federal funds rate range is 3.75% to 4.00%. The next FOMC meeting is on October 27-28. After the CPI release, the market briefly pushed the probability of an October rate hike close to 50%, but it then fell back to the 27% to 33% range. Although the PPI is hotter—up 1.3% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year, the largest increase since 2022—the expectation for an October rate hike slightly declined, partly due to rising Treasury yields and some Fed officials signaling "no rush to act in October." 
The situation in December is completely different. CME FedWatch shows about a 90% probability of at least one rate hike before the end of the year, with most major investment banks' baseline forecasts calling for a 25 basis point hike in December, pushing the rate range to 4.00%-4.25%. Bank of America expects one hike each in October and December. 
It is important to note that the U.S. midterm elections are in early November, and analysts believe the Fed may be reluctant to hike rates in the week before the election, adding extra political constraints to the October meeting. New York Fed President Williams previously stated he thinks one more hike this year is appropriate but did not specify a timing.
For the crypto market, the real pressure comes from the expectation of rate hikes before the end of the year, not whether the October hike materializes. As long as the market believes the rate path is moving upward, the liquidity premium on risk assets will be compressed.