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The most outrageous thing about MU isn't the price fluctuations.
It's that it's becoming less and less like a company selling memory.
A few days ago, when MU surged, I went to check institutional conference calls.
The results revealed a particularly interesting phenomenon.
The question analysts ask most is not DRAM price.
Not NAND inventory.
Not even HBM's profit margin.
Instead:
Will Microsoft continue to burn money next year?
Doesn't it sound strange?
A company selling memory.
Now, the stock price is actually starting to be decided by Microsoft.
Three years ago, no one would have believed this.
Watching MU before was very simple.
How well do PCs sell?
How well are the phones selling?
Is the server restocking?
Now it's completely changed $MUU
Looking at MU now, the first thing you do isn't open Micron's official website.
Instead, it depends on whether Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon have increased their CapEx.
Because for every AI data center expansion,
You need to buy GPUs.
HBM is worth buying.
DRAM is a buy.
You should also buy enterprise-grade SSDs.
MU is no longer selling memory.
It sells tickets to AI infrastructure.
So recently, many people have been asking:
Can MU still be bought?
I feel this question is asking the wrong question.
What should really be asked is:
Does Microsoft still dare to continue investing $200 billion a year?
If the answer is 'dare.'
Then MU's orders won't be lacking.
If one day these tech giants start saying:
AI investment should be held back for now.
MU might not even need to release a financial report.
The market will first drive down the stock price.
So now I study MU less and less.
I am studying Microsoft.
Research Meta.
Research Amazon.
Because what truly determines MU's future.
It's no longer Micron itself.
Instead, it's the wallets of these AI giants.
That's why I've always felt this way.
MU is no longer a storage company.
It is more like a real-time report card of AI capital expenditure.
As long as the world is still frantically building data centers.
MU has its own story.
But if AI starts saving money.
MU will definitely be among the first companies to feel the pressure.
Don't ask how much MU can go up now.
First, let me ask: AI giants, are they still willing to keep spending?
DYOR。🐋 Whales are accumulating over 38,000 BTC—but is it truly bullish?
#Bitcoin has seen one of the largest inflows into Accumulation Addresses, wallets typically linked to long-term holders and OTC activity.
However, there's an important detail: The average cost basis of these wallets is around $70K, while $BTC is trading near $64K.
This creates two possible scenarios:
🟢 Bullish: Whales are accumulating ahead of the next major rally.
🟠 Watch closely: Some buyers may simply be lowering their average entry price, with $70K becoming a potential break-even selling zone.
👀 The inflows are significant, but how these wallets behave around $70K could provide the clearest signal for Bitcoin's next major move.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Whales #OnChain #Crypto #MarketUpdate #AccumulationWriting
为什么 $SPCX 财报符合预期，盘后却还是先插针再下跌？
其实原因并不复杂。
最近 AI 相关美股都有一个共同特点：财报可以超预期，但股价未必会上涨。
我们直播时也一直强调，看 AI 股票不能只看 K 线，更重要的是看财报、ETF 资金流、现金流、资本开支（CapEx），最后才是技术走势。
从数据来看，$SPCX 本季度营收和亏损改善都非常亮眼。
但市场真正担心的并不是这一季赚了多少钱，而是公司为了 AI 算力、数据中心、Starship 以及卫星部署投入了巨额资本开支，却没有给出足够清晰的未来盈利和现金流指引。
换句话说，市场并不怀疑公司的成长空间，而是在担心这些投入究竟什么时候才能真正兑现利润。
除此之外，8 月 6 日的解锁也是市场关注的重点。
如果解锁期间遇上大股东集中减持、纳指走弱，或 Starship 再出现负面消息，流通筹码突然增加，很可能进一步放大抛压。这一天预计成交量也会明显放大，波动风险不容忽视。
所以今天早上醒来后，我直接市价做空了一手 $SPCX，计划至少拿到明天解锁，看看市场最终会如何定价。
#SpaceXBeatEstimates #SpaceXBeatEstimates
#DailyOrbit Wall Street was expecting 75,000 new jobs in July. America added just 44,000.
That single number tells you something important: the US economy isn't crashing, but it's clearly losing momentum.
The headline miss was significant, and the previous month's payrolls were revised lower as well. Under the surface, the picture is even more revealing. Almost all job growth came from essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while manufacturing and factories continued to cut workers. Businesses are becoming increasingly cautious, and hiring enthusiasm is fading.
First, high interest rates have been in place for a long time. Borrowing has become expensive, companies are reducing expansion plans, and many employers are simply choosing not to replace workers who leave.
Second, AI is accelerating the replacement of routine office jobs. At the same time, consumers are spending more on services and less on goods, reducing demand for manufacturing labor.
Looking ahead, the labor market will likely continue to weaken gradually rather than collapse. Healthcare, education, and elderly care should provide a foundation that prevents a sharp rise in unemployment, but with rates still elevated and AI adoption accelerating, the era of an extremely hot job market may be behind us.
So what does this mean for Bitcoin and Ethereum investors?
A cooling labor market reduces the probability of future Fed rate hikes. Lower rate expectations usually put pressure on the US dollar and Treasury yields, reducing the opportunity cost of holding risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
That's why the medium-term bullish case for crypto remains intact.
However, don't confuse a bullish outlook with a straight line upward. Friday's major payroll report will be crucial for confirmation. Chasing rallies aggressively in the short term still carries risk, while pullbacks may offer better entry opportunities.
The biggest question for markets is no longer whether growth is slowing—it's whether the Federal Reserve will react before the slowdown becomes impossible to ignore.
#DailyOrbit INSIGHT: Three moves, one thesis. The market is repricing megacaps on AI execution rather than AI spending.
- @Microntech reclaimed $1T on memory scarcity.
- @Google passed @Apple for second place globally.
- @Meta overtook @SpaceX as capex ballooned with no guidance attached.#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops AMD Earnings Review → SanDisk $SNDK Tonight's Prediction
AMD beats expectations + strong guidance → falls 9% after hours
Reason: Gross margin below expectations, good news already priced in
Same logic for SanDisk tonight, bearish
SanDisk earnings release tonight (early morning August 6 Beijing time)
Expectations: Revenue $8.3B / EPS $34.24
Price has risen 32% from the low of 1123, expectations fully priced in
Price going up means short. Above 1420, short short short, live in the palace
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ $AMD $SNDK $CRCL has previously had quite a few fundamental analyses, with market views becoming extreme.
The earnings report is about to be released, so I won't repeat the fundamentals. Instead, let's analyze key positions from the options market:
Since July, there have been obvious Call purchases on CRCL.
In July, there were large buy orders: CRCL 70 Call with about $1.2 million, and active trading of 90 and 100 dollar Calls, but this batch of funds seems more like event-driven capital.
Taking the August 7 expiration contract as an example:
Implied volatility is about 110%.
Expected price fluctuation is about ±$12.
My psychological estimated fluctuation range: $50-$73.
The market's bearish logic is that Circle is a stablecoin company that profits from US short-term debt interest.
The earnings release is expected to first rise then fall.
There is a large amount of Calls around $70, which partly explains the current rise, driven by market makers' hedging demand.
The critical watershed is $70; if it breaks above $70 before the earnings release, it is seen as a strong market bet.
If not, my expectation is a phase high.
$COIN $XCRCL
#CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大 $SNDK Learned a lesson with a loss: 50x leverage + cross-margin + contrarian short selling—all three taboos were covered. SNDK's rebound was 44 points, but under high leverage, it directly caused a double loss.
1. Leverage control: Tokens linked to US stocks are highly volatile. It is recommended to keep leverage within 5-10 times, and never use leverage above 30 times;
2. Position Management: Cross-margin trading is prohibited; a single position must not exceed 10% of the account principal, with sufficient margin reserved to withstand spike fluctuations;
3. Trend following: Before opening a trade, first check the 30-minute range of the general direction; do not blindly short during rebound trends and do not blindly buy long positions on downtrends;
4. Stop loss in advance: Set stop-loss points before opening the trade. Don't wait until losses widen before passively closing positions. If you set stop-loss near 1400 in advance, losses will be greatly reduced.
I used to think small coins were highly volatile and that high leverage could make quick profits, but I overlooked the reverse damage of leverage. With a 6-minute rapid market, there was no chance for manual stop-loss losses; the system automatically closed positions, swallowing both profits and principal. Subsequent trading strictly reduces leverage and divides positions, no longer betting on short-term spike moves; following the trend is the foundation of contract survival. #AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn? $BTC ADP employment data was released, showing an actual increase of 44,000, compared to the market's original expectation of 70,000, which was significantly below expectations. After the excitement of the World Cup faded, the U.S. job market clearly softened. As soon as the data was released, the market reacted directly—gold surged from 4072 to 4252, silver jumped from 59 to 62.3, and safe-haven assets collectively surged. The market is voting with its feet: poor jobs, naturally rising expectations for rate cuts.
What does this mean for the circle? As expectations for rate cuts heat, expectations for loose liquidity will follow. Risk assets are most sensitive to interest rate changes; the more water, the higher the boat. This round of macro conditions is tilting in favor of bulls, and the overall upward trend logic remains unchanged.
Looking ahead, if the upcoming nonfarm payroll data also confirms weakening employment, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts will increase further. Once the rate-cutting cycle begins, market sentiment will shift from hesitation to optimism, and funds will flow back into risk assets.
My current position is very simple. After cutting losses in ARB and exiting, I only have long options positions on DaBing and Ethereum left untouched. Although ARB has cut this wave, I'm not pessimistic about the mid-term outlook for Bing and Ethereum. The macro side is helping, so I'll keep watching.
If you want to rush in the short term, you can pocket a bit more. If you don't want to stir things up, just hold your position with peace of mind, keeping the overall direction unchanged. Stay steady, wait for the wind #S&P 500 surpasses 7700 points for the first time, hits a new all-time high #从降息到加息, Fed divergences fully revealed #财报观察员: Mixed earnings, unlocking imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? Jump 6% instantly! You told me it was a rebound? This is the main ascent wave! Gold hit a six-week high, and physical gold bars in China sold like crazy, with risk-off sentiment at its peak. Looking at our crypto world, $BTC is stagnant around 64,000. Even the S&P 500 hit a record high, yet Bright didn't even lift an eyelid. The scene is so fragmented it's almost laughable. Traditional Market: Risk Assets Celebrate Wildly, Safe-Haven Assets Also Celebrate! Crypto Circle: You guys play, I'm sleepy. To be honest, I don't quite understand it anymore. Gold rose because of rate cut expectations and Chinese demand, US stocks rose because of the soft landing narrative. So what about $BTC? Who exactly are you with? It used to be said that Bitcoin is digital gold, a hedge against inflation, but now that gold is taking off, it doesn't follow it. Previously, people said that Bitcoin is a risk asset highly correlated with tech stocks, but now the Nasdaq has hit a new high and it hasn't moved. This persona is completely shattered, ladies. But I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. After such a long sideways movement, $BTC is either preparing for some major move or truly decoupling from US stocks and carving out its own rhythm. Think back to last year's rally: it was the first to make everyone question their lives, then a huge bullish candlestick surged, and the Air Force was all kneeling and calling for their dad. $ETH is also half-dead, with ETF funds coming and going like playing house. The mountain bandits are even worse—most are still lying at rock bottom. But the rise in gold shows that global capital is indeed seeking safe havens. Once the rate-cutting cycle is confirmed, liquidity will inevitably overflow. When water flows downward, there will always be funds to re-examine the crypto market. First, keep a steady mindset—don't chase highs or panic. Large flatbread packagingHook:
SpaceX just reminded everyone of a painful truth: Wall Street doesn't pay for yesterday's success—it prices tomorrow's bill.
Revenue almost doubled to $7.8 billion, yet the stock still fell around 10%. Why? Because investors aren't questioning growth anymore; they're questioning the cost of the next wave of AI and infrastructure expansion.
Quarterly capital spending hit an eye-watering $18.4 billion. The message from the market is clear: growth is exciting, but growth at any price isn't.
The Bitcoin narrative is also getting ahead of itself.
SpaceX reported holding the same 18,712 BTC at the end of June that it held at the end of 2025. The value of that position dropped from $1.64 billion to $1.10 billion because Bitcoin's price fell—not because SpaceX sold its coins.
And the upcoming share unlock? That's simply permission to sell, not proof that every shareholder is rushing for the exit.
The bigger picture is straightforward:
• Strong growth.
• Massive spending.
• More tradable shares entering the market.
• Investors repricing risk.
If capital is truly rotating into crypto, we'll see it in the data: stronger ETF inflows, Bitcoin outperforming equities, and improving liquidity.
Until then, the simplest explanation is usually the right one.
#DailyOrbit AMD delivered a strong Q2: revenue reached $11.54B, adjusted EPS was $1.66, and data center sales rose 107% YoY to $6.7B. Q3 guidance near $13B also exceeded consensus, with gross margin holding around 56%.
The after-hours decline above 8% suggests expectations had moved beyond a simple earnings beat. The next test is whether Helios volume shipments can sustain growth fast enough to support the premium valuation.
NFA, just my read.
#AMDBeatsButDrops #OKXOrbitTopics #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates Too many positive factors have been overdrawn, and with short-term rallies and earnings reports that require gradual reduction, downtrends are slow to reverse. Coupled with Fed uncertainty and a weakening yen, risk control must be carefully considered.
Consumer-grade flash memory (price has increased fourfold—how many consumers are still willing to pay)
If it doesn't follow the pattern, short at the margin when prices rise, and if the earnings report surges, I keep adding short positions.
#闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages have sparked heated discussion Firmly choosing a direction will yield results!
Haha, $ETH I've been holding this hand since 1858
The 1880 was reduced once, and the 1900 was reduced again
The principal has now been recovered, and now it's pure profit
Previously, the price kept fluctuating around 1870. The real challenge wasn't judging the price rise or fall, but whether you could hold your position according to the original logic before the market broke out
When the price surpasses 1880 with increased volume, the previous consolidation will begin to show results
But after rising to around 1900, the upper level is already close to the previous round's heavy trading zone, so a second round of position reduction is very necessary
Now, the remaining positions no longer bear the pressure of principal drawdown. Next, the main focus is on whether 1900 can turn from resistance into support
If I can hold on on a pullback, there will be another chance to test above 1915 and then fall back to 1885. I will gradually close the remaining positions
$BEAT Still small positions and long positions; for now, only see if it can hold around 2.50
If 2.34 falls, it's over. I currently have no plans to add to this position
ETH has already cashed out twice this round; the remaining position remains to be seen if it can stay above 1900 for a while.
#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
#SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable 盘后冲高到131.3，15分钟就被打回113.76，17.5美元的高低差说明一切。营收暴增92%的利好没有转化为买盘，反而变成出逃的窗口，追在125以上的仓位全部成了接盘侠。这个市场用脚投票，财报的成色被解禁的利空完全盖过。 多空数据更直白。多头250人账面浮亏85.9万，胜率只有30%，空头411人浮盈1621万，胜率70%。空头仓位数是多头4.5倍，利润接近19倍，控场方是谁无需多言。这种极端失衡很难用短期情绪解释，更像是有资金提前拿到了明天的剧本。 真正的炸弹在明天，8月6日约9.1亿股内部人持股解禁，按现价折算1160亿美元，而目前流通盘只有6.4亿股，供给直接翻倍。空头累计押注242亿美金，规模已经超过特斯拉，这不止是看空，是明牌做空。利好在解禁面前撑不过15分钟，盘前和明天的走势会更难看。 $SPCX 现价116附近，不是抄底的时刻，是抢跑离场的窗口。追高的人已经被埋了一波，解禁落地大概率还有第二波。空头赚的是确定性，不是运气。 #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Account position divergence radar
Don't just count long or short accounts—it's worth watching which side the top holdings are leaning in.
$BTC Different account standards each take sides; currently, handle as a contribution, without amplifying any particular proportion. Prices are rising, and open positions are shrinking. Let's first understand this as a rebound from reduced positions. Divergence stocks are most prone to repeating; wait until the leading positions and price response have aligned before making a judgment.
$ETH Account direction is bullish, while leading positions are bearish; The side with more people is not currently the side with heavier positions at the top. With prices rising and OI falling, the current trend is to reduce positions, so it's not appropriate to write it as a new long entry. Only when the leading position ratio recovers to 1 does the position weighting begin to follow account sentiment.
$SOL Both the total and leading accounts are overweight, while the top positions are bearish, and the number of accounts and position weights are not on the same side. Expanding positions while falling is accompanied by selling pressure and new positions, but OI alone cannot confirm the direction of short positions. Before the top position ratio returned above 1, the advantage of long accounts remains an incomplete consensus.Let me give you a calm observation. The hardest part this time wasn't the drop, but the 'lack of narrative.' $BTC Stalling at 64K, the altcoins can't even pull off a decent sector rotation—the money is drained by tougher stories like US stocks, AI, semiconductors, and gold, leaving crypto as an empty space with no new stories to tell. The narrative vacuum period tests you most: without incremental funds coming in, any pull is a stock game where you profit from others' losses. At times like this, don't rush to look for the 'next hundredfold'—most of the time, it's a buyout. Protect your bullets and wait for a truly new narrative to ignite.一条被地缘噪音淹没的硬信号。也门方面放话正为和沙特「全面对抗」做准备，还在延布以北海域袭击船只——摆明了要把「封锁换封锁」从霍尔木兹延伸到红海。红海是全球航运的咽喉，这条线一紧，运费、油价、供应链成本会一层层往上传。市场这两天在为霍尔木兹要重开而松口气，但风险的水管从来不止一根。对风险资产来说，地缘不是单点利空，是背景噪音里随时可能变响的那一声。保护好子弹。Hook:
SpaceX just beat Wall Street's expectations—so why did investors hit the sell button?
Because in today's market, making money isn't enough anymore. Investors are asking a different question:
"How much cash are you burning to keep the dream alive?"
SpaceX's latest earnings actually looked impressive:
✅ Revenue reached $7.81 billion, beating expectations by 13%.
✅ Loss per share came in at $0.09, much better than the expected $0.26 loss.
✅ Starlink's operating margin climbed to 38.6%, proving the business can generate real profits.
But beneath those headline numbers, investors found something more worrying:
⚠️ Capital spending surged to $18.37 billion, more than 40% above expectations.
⚠️ Free cash flow for the first half of the year was negative $25 billion.
⚠️ The AI segment generated $2.56 billion in revenue while consuming $15.83 billion in investment.
In other words, SpaceX isn't just growing fast—it's spending even faster.
And there's another problem: on August 6, 911.5 million shares will become eligible for sale, equal to 141% of the current public float.
Not all of those shares will hit the market, but even a small wave of selling could create serious short-term pressure.
That's the dilemma investors are facing right now:
• The business is improving, but cash flow remains weak.
• Revenue is beating expectations, but spending is growing even faster.
• The earnings surprise hasn't been fully absorbed, and the unlock event is already around the corner.
The market used to buy anything labeled "AI," "high growth," or "Musk."
Now, investors are pulling out their calculators.
Because stories can keep investors excited for years—but selling pressure arrives overnight.
#DailyOrbit $SPCX On August 6th, Eastern Time, SpaceX experienced its first epic lock-up, which is also the core issue suppressing the stock price:
1. Unprecedented scale of unlocks
This unlocking of 911.5 million shares held by internal employees and early investors corresponds to a market value exceeding $110 billion, which is 1.4 times the current outstanding shares, making it the largest unlocking for a single share in U.S. history; these shares have extremely low holding costs, so even if the current stock price falls below the IPO price, early shareholders still have substantial profits and strong willingness to sell.
2. Selling pressure is continuous
The first round of unlocking is just the beginning; multiple batches of restricted shares will be unlocked within the year. By December 2026, the circulating share capital will expand from the current 639 million shares to 5.33 billion shares, with long-term supply expansion and liquidity dilution pressure running throughout the year.
3. Short positions are positioned in advance
Currently, short positions account for over 30% of the free float. Short bets on unlocking trigger price declines, fierce bullish and bearish tug-of-war, and short-term volatility will significantly amplify. #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? $SPCX This year, I don't plan to pay attention to it at all; just place a short position and that's it
Mainly, I'm afraid of buying spot stocks and can't resist going all in
From August to November is the peak period for unlocking SpaceX shares
The circulating circulating assets grew directly from 640 million to 5.2 billion yuan, and the main unlocked shares were still employee shares
This amounts to a large number of retail investors selling off
There is a strong long-term optimism about the narrative and profitability of $SPCX
But in the past six months, it's been very difficult to see a big rally. If you're not afraid of getting stuck or building positions in batches, you can still enter.记一条容易被忽略的外交摩擦。美国撤了巴西驻美大使的签证，巴西总统卢拉回怼「不负责任、干涉选举」，两边签证互相卡。单看是小事，但放进大图景里，它是「全球南方国家和美国越走越远」这条慢叙事的又一个注脚——金砖、本币结算、去美元化，都是从这种一次次摩擦里累积出来的。加密里真正的长线叙事，从来不是某个币的 K 线，而是主权信用体系松动时，无国界资产的位置。懂的都懂，走着看。聊条快讯，懂的都懂。亚马逊云和摩根大通宣布合作推进量子计算研发——每次这种大厂量子消息一出，加密圈总有人跳出来喊「比特币要被量子破解了」。冷静点：现有量子机离破解 secp256k1 还差着好几个数量级的稳定逻辑比特，这是十年以上的工程问题，不是明天的事。真到那天，加密早就迁移到抗量子签名了，传统银行系统反而更脆。量子是长期要跟的叙事，但拿它吓唬现在的持仓，属于标题党。走着看。🚨 Italy's biggest bank just slashed its Bitcoin ETF position by 94% and piled into staked Ethereum. Is this the start of a Bitcoin crash?
Not so fast.
The headline makes it sound like UniCredit has given up on Bitcoin, but the reality is much less dramatic. This isn't "Bitcoin out, Ethereum in." It's a classic Wall Street move: take profits, rotate positions, and chase yield.
Here's what actually happened:
• UniCredit cut its BlackRock IBIT holdings from 646,800 shares to just 40,700 in Q2, while also trimming most of its bullish options exposure.
• But the bank still holds 3.47 million shares of ARKB worth roughly $67.6 million—meaning Bitcoin remains the core of its crypto portfolio.
• At the same time, its stake in Ethereum staking products jumped from 116,200 shares to 349,600, reaching about $7.1 million.
Why the shift?
Simple: yield.
Bitcoin ETFs simply track the price of Bitcoin. Staked Ethereum products can generate returns. In an environment where interest rates are falling and banks are under pressure to find new sources of income, yield-producing assets become much more attractive.
The takeaway?
This isn't a bank "dumping Bitcoin for Ethereum." It's portfolio rotation inside the crypto market—selling one product, buying another, and looking for better returns.
Bitcoin's future has never depended on the decisions of a single bank, and it certainly doesn't today.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto
#DailyOrbit Why Aren’t BTC andETH Breaking Out Despite Bullish News?
The crypto market continues to see positive headlines:
Expectation of accommodative central bank policy
Steady spot ETF inflows and institutional participation
Expanding corporate adoption and treasury allocations
Regulatory frameworks becoming clearer globally
Yet, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain range-bound, struggling to ignite sustained upward momentum.
Here are four main reasons behind the current market divergence:
Positive Expectations Are Already Priced In Markets forward-price expected news long before headlines hit the mainstream. When anticipated events materialise without unexpected surprises, market participants often take profits rather than aggressively buying resistance.
Strategic Liquidity Allocation Capital is not leaving the market, but it is moving with higher discipline. Institutional and retail liquidity is concentrating into specific high-conviction plays and ecosystem narratives rather than lifting the total market cap uniformly.
Subdued Volatility and Trading Volumes Overall spot trading volume remains below previous bull-market peak cycles. In a lower-volume environment, momentum breakouts lack the sustained buying pressure required to clear heavy orderbook resistance, leading to frequent range sweeps.
Macro Uncertainty and Risk Management Even with lower inflation and policy adjustments, macro funds remain prudent. Institutional desks require clear economic confirmation before deploying capital aggressively into risk assets.
What Lies Ahead?
Major market expansions rarely start on obvious headlines. Range-bound consolidation and low-volatility compression are historically the phases where supply gets absorbed and long-term positioning occurs.
A decisive break out of this range will likely depend on expanding global liquidity, accelerating net ETF inflows, or a clear shift in broader macroeconomic conditions.
#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops The S&P 500 surpassed 7,700 points for the first time—what is the real driving force behind the all-time high?
US stocks have once again set a new record
On August 4, the S&P 500 index rose 1.79% to close at 7,736.52 points, surpassing the 7,700-point mark for the first time and setting a new all-time closing high. On the same day, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices also strengthened, with market risk appetite clearly rebounding.
However, this round of rally is not simply driven by sentiment; it reflects the combined effects of improved corporate earnings, the expansion of the AI industry cycle, and the easing of macro pressures.
For some time now, the biggest controversy in the market has revolved around one question:
Is AI creating real value, or is it just a capital market hype?
Recently, the signals from earnings season are gradually leaning toward the former.
Since the beginning of this year, the AI industry chain has shifted from being concept-driven to gradually entering the stage of commercialization and realization.
Tech giants such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta continue to increase investment in AI infrastructure, with rapid growth in demand for data centers, servers, electricity, and semiconductors.
The market's focus is shifting from "who owns AI technology" to "who can generate revenue and profits through AI."
This is why related sectors such as NVIDIA, memory chips, and semiconductor equipment continue to attract capital attention.
The logic of the AI market is changing.
In the past, the market chased technology stories and future expectations, but now investors are paying more attention to whether AI investments can translate into actual results.
Recent corporate financial reports show that AI-related businesses are gradually contributing to growth, and some companies have raised their earnings forecasts due to increased AI demand.
Besides AI-driven growth, the decline in energy prices is also an important factor in improving market sentiment.
Previously, escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices sparked market concerns about a resurgence in inflation and a shift in Federal Reserve policy.
However, as oil prices retreated, concerns about energy-driven inflation eased, pressure on US Treasury yields eased, and risk assets regained capital favor.
Meanwhile, corporate earnings remain an important foundation supporting the rise of U.S. stocks.
Since the beginning of this year, overall earnings of S&P 500 constituent stocks have exceeded previous market expectations, especially in the technology sector, where AI-related investments are gradually becoming a new driver of corporate growth.
However, the index's new highs do not mean the risk has disappeared.
The biggest current market concern remains valuation levels.
After the S&P 500 continued to rise, valuations of some large tech companies have reached relatively high levels. If future corporate earnings fail to meet market expectations, or if AI capital returns fall short of expectations, the market may face repricing.
Additionally, U.S. Treasury yields remain an important variable affecting the market.
If inflation heats up again in the future, or if the market raises expectations for the duration of the high interest rate environment, liquidity pressures could once again impact tech stock valuations.
Therefore, the S&P 500 surpassing 7,700 points truly reflects not just an index rise, but the market reaffirming a trend:
AI investment is moving from the storytelling stage to the commercialization validation stage.
In recent years, US stock gains have relied more on liquidity and future expectations, but now the market is more focused on whether companies can generate real profits through technological investment.
In the short term, strong earnings reports, expansion of the AI industry chain, and falling oil prices remain the main factors supporting risk appetite.
But in the long run, the key to how far U.S. stocks can go is not whether the index can continue to hit new highs, but whether the productivity boost brought by AI can continue to translate into corporate earnings growth.
Price will eventually provide the answer.
The market is willing to offer higher valuations to outstanding companies, but at the same time, it also demands that they realize corresponding profits. $SNDK $BICO $GRVT
#标普500首次站上7700点, setting a new all-time high Many people think Solana's ecosystem is thriving, seeing tens of millions of on-chain transactions daily, but I suggest pulling up the real list of token holding addresses. You'll find this is actually just a whale playing a self-entertainment game in an empty room.
On the surface, Solana remains the most eye-catching public chain trending today. In August, not only did the Agave v4.2 client undergo a comprehensive upgrade, but new mainnet features will be launched on August 17. The slot time on the testnet was successfully compressed to 350ms, further boosting technical confidence in the community. The number of meme hot transactions on the chain is breaking records every day, showing the ecosystem's vitality is incredibly vigorous.
But when we peel back the facade of transaction volume, the true trend of on-chain wallets tells a completely opposite story.
Recent on-chain data has been brutal: the number of active addresses on the Solana chain is plummeting, especially wallets holding at least 0.1 SOL, which has dropped by 5% in the past month.
On one hand, the number of transactions is approaching a historic high; on the other, the number of wallets holding tokens is shrinking rapidly. What does this strange divergence indicate?
This shows that the seemingly massive daily active users on the chain are actually just a handful of whales and scientists using high-frequency trading bots to engage in self-reversal on launch platforms and exchange pools.
And the group of retail investors who once provided the broadest foundation for the ecosystem are being mercilessly cleansed during this long round of consolidation.
Actually, this fits my current intuition perfectly. Yesterday, I dug out my wallet for self-defense, saving 0.15 SOL to rush to Dog, and found that due to the previous airdrops of several zero-down small tokens, account rent had been deducted, and the balance had shrunk to 0.08 SOL. I quietly withdrew this small amount of money back to my main account and completely canceled the small address. This trivial move of mine happened to become a molecule in the lost 5% wallet data.
Retail investors worldwide are really about to be drained by PvP on the Solana chain.
The better the performance and the shorter the slot time, the faster scientists can squeeze algorithms. Retail investors rushing into the market are almost 100% cut off by microsecond-level false starts. Over time, retail investors' principal is drained through countless losses, leaving them no choice but to exit.
When a public chain ecosystem loses its broad base of token holders and retail users, leaving only whales and validator cartels idling the algorithm, its judgment day of liquidity exhaustion is not far off. Even if the technical upgrade on August 17 pushes performance to the extreme, a true bull market still won't emerge on an empty highway.
Of course, my pessimistic judgment also leaves 20% margin for error. If after the mainnet function activates on August 17, the ecosystem can quickly produce applications with real consumption scenarios that don't rely on meme speculation, attracting retail investors outside the circle back, then I will still open a backup wallet again. But before the data recovers, I choose to tighten my grip on spot trading and refuse to be fuel in the whale's inversion game. ETFs, tokenized stocks, and major upgrades are all coming, so why is $SOL still below $80?
As of August 5, Solana's price was around $78. In recent months, Solana has continuously released positive news: spot ETFs have been launched, on-chain real-world assets are expanding, tokenized stock trading is growing, and the Alpenglow upgrade is also underway.
However, SOL still hasn't broken out of a true trend.
On the surface, the market is trading "Solana might become a Wall Street on-chain trading platform," but what truly determines whether SOL can rise is whether these businesses can ultimately convert into sustained buying of SOL tokens.
ETFs have been implemented, but incremental funds have begun to stagnate
The Solana ETF was once one of the most anticipated catalysts in the market. ETFs addressed the compliance channels for institutions to purchase SOL and lowered the threshold for ordinary investors to hold crypto assets.
The problem is, ETF listing does not necessarily mean continuous capital inflows.
Farside data shows that on July 28, the US Solana ETF saw a net outflow of about $18.1 million, with almost no new funds added on most trading days from July 29 to August 4. ETFs did not form the large-scale continuous buying seen in early Bitcoin ETFs.
This indicates that institutions can already buy SOL, but currently have no strong enough reason to increase their holdings.
ETFs now provide more price support than push SOL back to its highs.
Solana is becoming the main battleground for tokenized stocks
What truly deserves attention is not ETFs, but Solana's expansion into tokenized assets.
As of May this year, the real-world assets on Solana have exceeded $2.8 billion, with more than 230,000 on-chain RWA holders. Solana also accounts for about 97% of on-chain tokenized stock spot trading volume.
After entering June, this trend continued to accelerate. In just the week of mid-June, tokenized stock trading volume on Solana reached about $1.29 billion, accounting for roughly 95% of the week's total cross-chain market trading volume.
This is more important than hyping meme coins.
Meme coins usually bring short-term trading volume, with users coming and going quickly. If tokenized stocks, stablecoins, and real-world assets truly grow, they could bring more stable demand for capital, trading, and settlement.
Solana is attempting to shift from being an "altcoin casino" to on-chain Nasdaq.
Alpenglow is strong, but a technological upgrade does not necessarily mean a price increase
Solana is also preparing an important upgrade: Alpenglow.
According to Solana's official goals, Alpenglow will replace the existing consensus mechanism and reduce the final transaction confirmation time from about 12.8 seconds to under 150 milliseconds.
If realized, this would make Solana more suitable for high-frequency trading, payments, and on-chain securities settlement.
However, the market has repeatedly proven in the past that improving blockchain performance does not automatically drive token prices higher.
Faster speeds and lower fees help attract users, but they also mean a single transaction can contribute less in fees. The real issue isn't how many transactions Solana processes daily, but whether these activities can increase SOL staking demand, fee income, and long-term holding needs.
Otherwise, ecosystem applications may thrive, but profits and value will mainly be taken by trading platforms, wallets, stablecoin issuers, and application projects, with SOL only serving as the underlying infrastructure.
What SOL lacks now is not a story, but value realization
I believe Solana is still one of the most fundamentally complete mainstream public blockchains outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
It has an active trading ecosystem, ETF channels, stablecoins, real-world assets, and a clear technical upgrade pathway. These conditions ensure that SOL will not be easily eliminated by the market.
But now, directly interpreting "on-chain transaction volume growth" as "SOL will inevitably rise" is still too simplistic.
In the short term, it is important to watch whether ETFs can see continuous inflows again and whether SOL can stabilize above $80. A stronger trend signal is a breakout above the previous dense trading zone, accompanied by simultaneous expansion of trading volume and on-chain funds.
If the ETF continues without new funding, even if Alpenglow launches smoothly, SOL may continue to fluctuate around $70 to $80. Conversely, if tokenized stocks and stablecoin growth begin to truly drive demand for SOL, the market may re-trade valuations above $100.
Solana's biggest problem now isn't the lack of positive news, but that despite a lot of positive news, the coin price hasn't fully reflected it.
This means the market is no longer willing to pay only for "faster blockchains"; what it wants to see is: how much value the growth of the Solana ecosystem can ultimately leave for SOL holders."Everyone was waiting for crypto regulation to bring certainty. Instead, Washington hit the brakes again."
People keep asking: What happened to the CLARITY Act? Wasn't regulatory clarity supposed to be right around the corner?
Here's the reality: the bill isn't stuck because of some complicated technical issue. It's stuck because of one explosive question:
Should politicians be allowed to profit from crypto?
The latest signal from Washington isn't encouraging. Senate Majority Leader Schumer has filed a motion to end debate, but that move actually highlights how far apart the two parties still are.
The market has noticed. On Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 has fallen to just 31%—down 7 percentage points in a week and nearly 50 points from the spring highs above 80%.
What's surprising is that lawmakers already agree on roughly 80%–85% of the bill. The battle has narrowed to a single issue: the ethics rules.
Republicans added language banning elected officials from profiting from crypto trading, but Democrats argue that the proposal contains loopholes and fails to address concerns surrounding high-profile crypto ventures linked to political families.
With midterm elections approaching, politicians are becoming increasingly cautious. One poll found that 84% of voters view candidates backed by crypto-industry money negatively, making support for the bill a tougher political decision.
So what does this mean for Bitcoin?
In the short term, delayed regulation means delayed optimism. Analysts at Bernstein have warned that if the bill fails this year, markets could see an "instinctive sell-off" driven by disappointment.
But the bigger picture may be different.
Even without the CLARITY Act, regulators aren't standing still. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has made it clear that agencies still have significant authority to shape crypto policy.
The real question is: who gets to write the rules—and who gets to profit from them?
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #CLARITYAct #CryptoRegulation
#DailyOrbit According to normal logic, with high interest rates, soaring US Treasury yields, geopolitical conflicts, ETF capital outflows, and tight liquidity, these factors in past cycles would have likely caused BTC to crash even harder. But this time, it has never experienced a true panic sell-off. I don't think this is necessarily the absolute bottom; it’s possible that the price could fall below $60,000 or even a bit further. However, I believe this is more like a mid-to-long-term bottom range rather t讲个我盯了好几天的信号，不带点位。美股天天创新高、AI 半导体熔涨、黄金还创了历史新高——避险和冒险的钱同时在涌，唯独 $BTC 焊在 64K 装死，risk-on 不跟、避险也不认。这种「跟跌不跟涨」的背离，是加密自身没有增量资金最诚实的证据。方向上我依旧偏空，但不是让你现在裸空进场——是等日线真正破位再动手。手里空着不难受，追进去被震出来才难受。The amount of circulating funds in the current financial market is decreasing, mainly due to multiple factors collectively draining the market's liquidity. Many countries worldwide maintain relatively high interest rates and continue balance sheet reductions, causing yields on low-risk assets like U.S. Treasuries to rise. A large amount of capital has shifted from stocks and various equity markets to cash and fixed income products; coupled with the continuous issuance of massive government bonds, this further diverts existing funds. The dollar's siphoning effect has also caused many cross-border funds to return to their home countries. Meanwhile, market risk appetite has declined, institutions are actively deleveraging, and amid market volatility, assets are being passively sold off and trading tightened. Both retail and institutional investors are increasing cash holdings and redeeming fund products, significantly weakening their willingness to enter the market. Additionally, with IPOs and shareholder sell-offs diverting on-exchange funds, more capital is exiting than entering, leading to a gradual contraction of market liquidity. The direct manifestation is that the funds available for use on exchanges are becoming increasingly scarce, and trading is tending to be subdued. $ETH $BTC 闪迪马上发财报，整个市场的眼睛都盯在两个字上：HBF。刚结束的FMS 2026上，闪迪和SK海力士联手发布了高带宽闪存的首个标准规范，带宽覆盖0.4到3.0TB/s，直接把NAND堆成HBM的样子，容量却是HBM的8到16倍，成本还差不多。这玩意儿就是冲着AI推理的"内存墙"去的，大模型跑推理要反复读海量参数，HBM太贵太小，普通SSD又太慢，HBF正好卡在中间。市场对这事有多狂热？闪迪股价今年涨了四倍多，上季度毛利率干到78%，还锁了420亿美元的长期订单，Q4指引又是环比35%的增长，所以这次财报只要不是爆表级的超预期，都容易变成"利好出尽"的现场。
更值得关注的是存储紧缺这条线。三大DRAM原厂占九成份额，五大NAND厂商占近九成，库存一路往下掉，价格还在往上走，这不是周期反转，这是AI把存储从周期股硬生生拉成了基建股。对加密市场来说，这事儿的传导路径其实挺直接：存储和算力成本抬升，挖矿、节点运营的硬件开支跟着水涨船高，FIL、AR这类去中心化存储项目理论上是最受益的叙事，毕竟链上存储成本如果相对便宜，资金就会重新讲起"分布式存储平替"的故事。另外AI板块和加密现在基本是同一条流动性曲线，存储股狂欢说明AI交易还没熄火，风险偏好外溢对大盘币也是好事。但反过来要小心，存储股估值已经热得发烫，一旦闪迪财报不及预期引发AI链回调，加密这边的高Beta山寨以太坊大概率跟着跳水。所以我的看法是，HBF是长期真故事，但短期财报这关是情绪测试，别在利好最高潮的时候追。$ETH 用清算数据给市场量个体温。过去 24 小时全网空头爆仓明显盖过多头，逼空的量是被多杀的好几倍——价格却没跟着飞，$BTC 还黏在 64K 附近窄幅震荡。这个组合值得玩味：空头在被一点点挤出去，但增量买盘并没接手，涨不动。费率同时压在接近中性，说明杠杆两边都不敢重下注。清算数据是情绪的温度计不是方向盘——它告诉你谁在疼，不告诉你下一步往哪走。看仓位说话。Put a flowability thermometer that's easy to overlook. The Fed's overnight fixed-rate reverse repo received only two counterparties today, totaling $1.65 billion—a figure that has nearly bottomed out. The reverse repo balance is the reservoir of the market's "excess cash," having been drained from sky-high volumes two years ago to tens of billions today, indicating that the banking system's excess liquidity has basically been absorbed. This is not a switch for positive or negative factors, but rather a reminder: the remaining loose funds are running low, and if further volatility arises, the market will become more sensitive to liquidity. Risk assets, including $BTC, all benefit from this business.放一条被熔涨情绪盖过去的能源数据。美国上周馏分燃料（主要是柴油）出口冲到每日 190 万桶创历史纪录，同时国内库存降到 1996 年以来同期最低。这意味着什么？成品油端的紧张是实打实的——霍尔木兹的运输扰动加上俄罗斯炼厂被袭，全球都在抢柴油。柴油是工业和运输的血液，它的紧张会顺着 PPI 往通胀里渗。对 $BTC 的传导不直接，但它是「通胀黏性—加息叙事」这条链上的一块拼图。数据摆在这，看后面 CPI 怎么接。Leave a record of the switching between strong and weak. Today, an unusual signal: $ETH outperformed $BTC in 24-hour gains, becoming the strongest leg in the mainstream—it has been the weakest over the past week. On the funding side, both mainstream contract rates are near neutral or even slightly negative, indicating that this wave is not driven by leveraged bulls adding aggressively, but more like short covering combined with spot support to support the bottom. The switch between strong and weak legs often precedes the sector's sentiment shift, but the one-day data does not count as a trend. What I'm more concerned about is whether this relative strength can be sustained until the daily close—data won't play along with you; let's look at position size first.Others fear my greed—but the premise is that you must determine whether the reason for their fear is real or just emotional
Gross margin 80%, zero debt, revenue up 320%—yet the stock price plummeted 44%. Is this market crazy?
A company.
Gross margin is 78% →80%, revenue growth exceeds 320% year-on-year, zero debt, and a $6 billion buyback plan.
But the stock price has fallen 44% from its yearly high, nearly halved.
Are you buying or not?
After tonight's market close, SanDisk released its FY2026 Q4 financial report.
Wall Street expects revenue of $8.39 billion, up 41% quarter-over-quarter, with earnings per share of $33.01. Goldman Sachs directly raised the target price from $1,200 to $2,200. The company's own guidance is: revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion, gross margin of 79% to 81%, compared to only $0.29 per share in the same period last year.
Within a year, EPS rose from 0.29 to over $30.
In any normal market, stock prices would skyrocket.
But SanDisk didn't fly. It plunged from a high of $2,354 all the way up to around $1,300.
Why? Bears say: Storage is a strong cyclical industry, and the cycle is about to peak.
This logic sounds flawless. Historically, memory chips have been a cycle of sharp price swings—shortages→ price hikes→ expansions→ oversupply→ collapses. SanDisk rose 858% in 2025 and 442% this year. After such a big rally, huge profit-taking is common; it's perfectly normal for someone to flee. Coupled with news of Meta selling idle computing power, the market is beginning to worry that AI capital spending may peak.
The bears say: The feast is over.
But the bulls have another script.
First, AI-driven data center demand is growing structurally rather than cyclically. SanDisk's data center business generated $1.47 billion in revenue last quarter, up 233% quarter-over-quarter and 645% year-over-year. This isn't supported by price hikes—it's real demand exploding.
Second, the company has shifted to a "long-term agreement" model. SanDisk has locked in five multi-year supply agreements, totaling at least $42 billion. In the past, storage factories lived by the weather—profits from price increases and losses when prices fall. Now that long-term contracts have been signed, prices are locked and cycle fluctuations have been smoothed out.
Third, SK Hynix's CEO personally said: 2027 will be the tightest year in the history of the storage industry, and supply shortages may continue beyond 2030. Customers are now coming to sign long-term supply agreements because they fear they won't be able to get stock in the future. TrendForce predicts that by 2026, the NAND Flash market will face a 4% to 5% supply gap, with shortages likely to continue at least until the first half of 2027.
Fourth, SanDisk and SK Hynix just released the first HBF standard specification yesterday. This is a new storage solution positioned between HBM and SSD, specifically designed for AI inference scenarios. The HBF Alliance has already brought together giants like Google.
On one hand, AI demand is exploding, long-term contract price locking, and supply shortages will continue until 2030.
On one side is "the cycle has peaked, run fast."
Who do you think is right?
If SanDisk were a cyclical stock, a PE of 6.5 times would be reasonable. After all, cyclical stocks should be undervalued at the peak of the cycle—because the next stage is to lose money.
But what if SanDisk is a growth stock?
A company with 300% annual growth, 80% gross margin, and zero debt offering a 6.5x PE ratio — this is not a wrong kill, it is a massacre.
This script is very familiar to people in the crypto community.
When BTC fell from 69,000 to 15,000—the halving didn't change, institutional entries didn't change, only sentiment changed.
When SOL dropped from 260 to 8 yuan—the ecosystem hadn't collapsed, developers were working, and all that became market fear was the market.
Every time, when the panic of the "cycle peaks" is at its peak, it is precisely the window for strategic planning.
Of course, maybe this time is really different. It is also possible that storage cycles have truly peaked. Maybe SanDisk really is gone for good.
Is the market pricing SanDisk as a cyclical stock or as a growth stock?
If it's the former, the current valuation is reasonable.
If it's the latter, then that's the biggest blunder of the year.
Tonight's financial report will be announced.
Others fear my greed—but the premise is that you must determine whether the reason for their fear is real or just emotional.Based on the PI/USDT 15-minute chart provided, here is a simple technical prediction:
Market Prediction: Short-Term Relief Bounce Testing Resistance
Recent Price Action: The price is trading around $PI $0.08726 (up +4.61%), recovering from a low of $PI $0.08622.
Moving Averages (MA): MA5 ($0.08714) and MA10 ($0.08710) show early stabilization, but price is fighting MA20 ($0.08723).
Support and Resistance:
Resistance: $0.08730–$0.08817, then $0.09021.
Support: $0.08622, then $0.08275.
A break above $0.08730 targets $0.08900–$0.09000. Dropping below $0.08622 resumes the broader downtrend.
#EarningsRealityCheck #OKX.ai 兄弟们,上小时我让你们别接那波 11:4 的红包,结果不到一小时就现原形了——广度从 11 涨 4 跌直接退回 8 涨 6 跌,量能更狠,砍到 -75.7%,这轮死市里从没这么干涸过。
定调先说:这不是底,是钝刀子。BTC 从 +1.14% 凉到 +0.77%,价没崩但量没了,典型的"没人接、也没人砸"的真空僵死。
资金流向实锤:成交量 -75.7%(比上轮 -52.8% 还惨一倍),OI 冻在 10.93 万 BTC 纹丝不动,funding +0.0021% 中性,FG 27 还卡恐惧。钱彻底躺平了。
crypto 定位:这种局最坑的不是暴跌,是钝刀慢磨——你看着没跌,账户里的山寨一个个阴跌,广度脉冲一下又回落,把人的耐心磨光了才真杀。
给个能拿走的东西——"磨底三特征":① 量砍超 70%(当前 -75.7% 达标)② 价格小阴小阳不破位(BTC 横 6.46 万)③ 广度从脉冲回暖回落(11:4→8:6 假反弹)。三特征全中,就是磨底不是见底。
而且外部锚也松了:美股代币化标的 XSOXL -4.37%、XSPCX -9.11% 集体翻绿,之前靠美股当靠山的剧本也断了,现在是"内冻外撤"双向失锚。
真实复盘:我那个 GRVT 多从 -3.46% 又爬回 +0.69%,24h 还 +24.58%,全市场就它一棵独苗还绿着——但独苗不是趋势,是幸存者偏差,别当成信号去追。
扎心结论:量能砍到这份上,横盘撑不久,要么突然放量选边,要么钝刀再磨两周。现在这种"假反弹一日游"最消磨人,最容易在磨到崩溃时割在地板。
老铁们,你们觉得这 -75.7% 的极致缩量是暴风雨前最后的安静,还是钝刀还要再磨?评论区聊聊,猜错我当反向指标。明天盯一眼 GRVT 独苗能不能扛住,扛不住就彻底没活了。
加密资产高风险,本文不构成投资建议,纯属个人观点。
$BTC $GRVT $ETH #极致缩量 #钝刀磨底 #假反弹 #量能真空 #风控策略 #新手科普 #行情分析 #OKX星球A Cross-Market Line · Encrypted ZK hardware and the ASIC story in US stocks are the same thing
Today, on the crypto side, Cysic rose 93% for dedicated hardware for ZK proofs. If you compare it with the US stock market, you'll find it's the same script.
Common technical route judgment: GPU is flexible but inefficient; FPGA has good power efficiency but can't compete with GPU cost-effectiveness; ASICs win in power consumption and peak performance, but have high development costs and slow time-to-market. Once the standard is standardized, ASICs can bring a 10 to 100-fold improvement, with extremely low marginal cost after mass production.
AI correspondence: Nvidia's GPUs are general-purpose solutions, while Google's TPU and Broadcom's custom chips follow the ASIC route. Because the training phase evolves quickly and relies on dynamic matrix operations, the GPU will continue to dominate; However, in scenarios involving fixed tasks and large-scale reasoning, ASICs have irreplaceable value.
This has already played out once in crypto history: Bitcoin's SHA-256, Litecoin's and Dogecoin's Scrypt, and ASICs directly solidify algorithms into silicon wafers, becoming the sole infrastructure for mining. That's how Bitmain got started.
So the criteria for judging are the same: has the standard been solidified?
Bitcoin's hashing algorithm remained unchanged for twenty years, so ASIC won; ZK's algorithm diversity and operator differences have not yet converged, so demand for dedicated hardware has not yet exploded; If AI inference is standardized, ASICs will take a large portion of the GPU.
No matter the market, buying "specialized hardware" is always a gamble on rigid standards. If standards are unclear, even the best chips won't sell at scale. This judgment can be applied to Cysic, Broadcom, and all ASIC conceptsThe Four True Concepts of Home · After handing in the third paper, the midterm conclusion
The framework of July's article: The valuation treatment of these four companies is almost entirely determined by "what their relationship is with AI." Now that I've submitted all three scrolls, I can update now.
Netflix (7/16): Revenue slightly below expectations, Q3 guidance below market, $4.7 billion in quarterly buybacks—the highest in company history—fell 9% in after-hours trading, breaking a 52-week low. Its options are on the cost side—20 billion in content spending, with AI pushing 20% down to 4 billion, which is larger than the entire advertising business; The conference call has proven it (a 17-minute AI-enhanced footage for a documentary is twice as fast and half the cost).
Spotify (8/4): Subscribes surpass 300 million, setting a new milestone, net growth exceeds guidance, ARPU fixed exchange rate +7.4%. Breaking the guidance above the guidelines, but advertising still up +3%, EPS miss, AI and marketing spending suppressing profits, down 5.6%. And the global advertising head left for DoorDash at the end of August.
Duolingo (tonight): To be delivered.
Reddit: Dates vary by company; please refer to the company's IR page.
Midterm conclusion, including a downgrade: In July, I ranked Spotify in the "most comfortable win rate structure," but now it's being downgraded—its second engine hasn't started for two consecutive quarters, and the engine repairers have left. In contrast, Netflix's cost options are the least priced among the four.
A consistent finding: all four companies recently reported quarterly EPS misses, while most of their revenues were good. Revenue is long, profits are missing out, and in the middle, AI inference and R&D costs are being eaten. Upstream collectors collect money, super companies buy assets, application layers buy consumables—this food chain is becoming increasingly clear.
When choosing this sector, don't ask "Will AI disrupt it?" or "Does AI appear first on its profit and loss statement, cost or revenue item?"
$RDDT $NFLX Market · The S&P set a record high, but not all the gains were complete
Today's intraday: S&P 500 7,761.89 (+0.33%), a record high; Dow 54,701.04 (+1.14%); Nasdaq 26,625.53 (+0.15%); Russell 2000 -0.14%; VIX 16.28(-1.33%)。
Pay attention to this structure: Dow up 1.14%, Nasdaq up only 0.15%, small-cap stocks fall. The index is hitting new highs, but what is rising is the weights and traditional economy, not a broad-based rally.
Commodities are more worth watching: gold at 4,297.80, up +3.50% for the day; crude oil at 75.16 (-0.81%), having fallen all the way from above 100 in July. Trump said the agreement to reopen Hormuz could be reached as early as today.
Oil falls, gold rises, stocks hit new highs—this combination means: inflationary pressures are easing (oil), but demand for hedging against some uncertainty is rising (gold), and stocks are repricing AI.
Rest of the week: Tonight's Duolingo after-hours session; Friday's July nonfarm payrolls, the biggest macro variable this week.
Background: S&P Q2 profit growth tracked above 47%, RBC maintained an 8,150 target price. But August and September have historically been the weakest two months of the year.
Setting new highs doesn't mean a full-blown bull market; let's see if the Russell 2000 can keep up. If it can't keep up, it means this round of rally is the AI story of a few companies, not the economy
$XAU $SPCX #临时通航协议待落地, oil price risks have not yet reversed, #AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn? [Pharaoh Market Watch]
Everyone is asking the pharaoh, why is the CLARITY Act stuck again? What happened to the promised clear regulation?
Pharaoh bluntly said that the bill's progress was indeed blocked, and the reason for this delay was subtle—not technical details, but the political red line of "officials making money."
Let's first look at the latest developments. Senate Majority Leader Tuhn has submitted a motion to terminate the debate, but this move itself indicates that the two parties have not yet reached an agreement. Polymarket data shows that the bill's probability of passing this year is only 31%, down 7 percentage points from a week ago and 9 percentage points over the past month. In spring, this figure once exceeded 80%, which is quite a big gap.
Where is the stuck? In fact, 80%-85% of the core provisions of the bill have been agreed upon by both parties, narrowing the focus of contention down to the "ethics clause." The latest Republican draft includes provisions prohibiting elected officials from profiting from crypto asset trading, but Democrats argue that the new provision has obvious loopholes and cannot effectively address the Trump family's huge profits from projects like meme coins. A poll shows that 84% of voters hold a negative view of candidates backed by crypto industry funding. Before the midterm elections, moderate MPs began to retreat.
What does this mean for the big pie?
In the short term, positive expectations have been delayed, and the market is indeed under pressure. Bernstein has already warned that if the bill does not pass this year, it could trigger a wave of "instinctive sell-off." But in the long run, regardless of whether the bill passes or not, regulators themselves are pushing forward. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has stated that even if the bill does not pass, regulators still have much to do. $ETH $BTC $SNDK #CLARITY法案推进受阻, the Senate division widened Fast Variable · Three dates in August, and one dripping at the tap
August 7 to 15: BIP-110 mandatory signal window (block 961,632). Miner support was only about 2% at the end of July, with a threshold of 55%, making it almost impossible to pass, but the window itself is a source of volatility, especially for inscriptions and Runes-related assets. Holding BTC itself requires no action.
August 21: eCash hard fork (block 964,000), with the biggest controversy being the reallocation of about 500,000 dormant coins related to Satoshi Nakamoto. Forked coins have different policies across platforms, and many regulated institutions simply cannot hold them.
August 27 to 29: Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. This Fed has not provided forward-looking guidance or canceled economic forecast summaries, so informal wording carries even greater weight. The next FOMC meeting will be held on September 15 or 16.
This Friday: July nonfarm payrolls. This is a recent hard statistic.
The constantly dripping faucet: PUMP's three-year linear unlocking is still ongoing; Last week, HYPE unlocked 4.45% of circulating supply (about $581 million)—Hyperliquid's model is 97% to 99% fee buybacks, so this week is a good chance to look back and see if the buyback buyers have held up.
Unresolved Issues: Ethena's LayerZero cross-chain bridge is still suspended due to unresolved rsETH-related vulnerabilities—this incident began with the $292 million Kelp DAO vulnerability in April, and the aftershocks have been ongoing for four months.
August is characterized by dense but unrelated events, making it easiest to be fooled by a single narrative. Watching the calendar is more useful than watching candlesticks
#从降息到加息, Federal Reserve Divide Fully Revealed #Cloudflare推AI钱包, Dispute Over Machine Payment Entry #以太坊草案EIP-8363 Sparks Controversy A divergence · The whole world is celebrating, but crypto is off-site
Today's set of numbers is worth presenting separately:
The S&P 500 hit a record high of 7,761.89; Gold rose +3.5% to 4,297.80 in a single day; Bitcoin rose to 64,456, about 49% away from its October peak.
A more complete background: oil prices have fallen from above 100 to 75.16, Trump said the Hormuz reopening agreement could be reached as early as today; July nonfarm payrolls will be released on Friday. Risk appetite and safe-haven demand were met today simultaneously; money on both sides had their own destinations, except crypto was not used.
This puts pressure on two popular narratives at the same time: "digital gold"—it didn't follow gold when it really rose; "risk assets are high beta"—it didn't follow when the stock market hit new highs.
My judgment is: crypto is neither a safe-haven asset nor a high beta asset right now; it's a liquid asset. Whether it rises depends on whether incremental funds are entering the market exclusively, not on macro sentiment.
Evidence in capital flow: Since 2026, cumulative net inflows into spot BTC ETFs have remained negative, ranging from about -4.8 to 5.4 billion. The 7-day consecutive inflows of 981 million in July were the longest since October 2025, then on July 24, a single-day outflow of 225 million was cut.
Don't use macro positive factors to predict crypto before incremental funds return. Focus on ETF cumulative metrics, not just a single day. Friday's non-farm payrolls are the most direct liquidity variable this week. #标普500首次站上7700点, hit a record high #CLARITY法案推进受阻, Senate divisions widened #从降息到加息, and Fed divides were fully revealed 👀 Bitcoin is stuck around $64,000 for a reason.
It is the median cost basis of coins acquired over the past year.
Half were bought above it.
Half were bought below it.
The market is trading at its current point of maximum disagreement.$BTC SpaceX · Going public is the peak, and the first financial report is coming
I followed this line in July, and now it's reached a critical juncture.
Review: On July 7, it officially entered the Nasdaq 100, but on the day it entered the index, it dropped 6.83%—the day passive buying entered, institutions reversed and dumped their holdings into index funds, a textbook sell of inclusion. Later, it fell below the IPO price again, and the bears kept increasing their positions.
Now: its first post-IPO financial report is about to be released, but the backdrop is that the stock price has been falling steadily since its IPO.
Why this financial report is especially difficult: For a newly listed company, the first financial report is the starting point for building trust with the public market. And now it is trading this slot while breaking below the issue price. The market uses the harshest standards to assess its cash flow, launch pace, Starlink users, and revenue.
There was another structural pressure I mentioned in July: around mid-July, about 20% of positions were locked up and unlocked, while circulating shares were only 3% to 5%. Extremely small circulating shares + large unlocking + issue price drop—these three conditions combined will magnify any imperfect financial report.
This is not a discussion of buying opportunities, but a risk warning. First earnings report + issue price drop + lock-up—this combination rarely has a gentle ending in history. If you want to participate, wait for the first volume daily candlestick after the earnings report comes out—don't guess in advance. $SPCX
#SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #财报观察员: Mixed performance, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? Palantir Depth · The application layer finally handed in the homework
Last night's earnings report is worth reviewing one by one, as it answers the most expensive question in the entire AI industry.
Numbers
Revenue was $1.94 billion (expected $1.8 billion), up +93% year-on-year
EPS 0.41 (expected 0.35), net profit 1.07 billion (compared to 329 million in the same period last year)
U.S. business revenue +149% to $764 million, up +380% cumulative from 2024
U.S. government revenue +90% to $809 million
The value of the remaining U.S. commercial contracts doubled to $6.24 billion
Guidance is raised across the board
Q3 revenue of 2.16 billion (market expects 2 billion)
For the full year, it increased from 7.18 billion → 8.15 billion at the beginning of the year
U.S. business full-year guidance rose from $3.22 billion to over $3.42 billion
The Rule of 40 score has risen to 155, and it has expanded for 12 consecutive quarters.
Why this matters: Over the past six months, the market has been worried about one thing—whether companies will use general-purpose large models like OpenAI and Anthropic to directly replace companies like Palantir. Palantir responded by saying, "The generic model doesn't work well enough and will take your private data."
A 149% growth rate is the current score of this debate.
But two cold waters must be poured in
First, valuations remain extremely high; even a slight slowdown in growth will reprice the same numbers—the 7% drop in May blowout is proof of this.
Second, technically weak, the stock price previously broke below the key 100-week moving average; Still -29% for the year. Cramer's comments are biting but spot-on: buyers "buy Palantir all the way up like they used to, but does the old days still hold up?"
Viewing it as a leading indicator in the AI application layer is more valuable than viewing it as a stock. Its U.S. business growth rate serves as a thermometer for the entire enterprise AI expenditure
$PLTR $OPENAI $ANTHROPIC
#CLARITY法案推进受阻, Senate divisions widen #AMD财报超预期, has growth been overdrawn? #闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages have sparked heated discussion US stocks hit new highs, but $BTC are stuck at $64,000: What exactly does the crypto market lack?
As of August 5, Bitcoin has returned to around $64,600, but overall over the past week has seen little change. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones have just hit new all-time closing highs, and global capital is once again chasing AI, semiconductor, and tech stocks. citeturn202838finance0turn316184news26turn316184news32
The most awkward spot in the crypto market right now is that the macro environment is indeed improving, ETF funds are starting to flow back, but Bitcoin still hasn't achieved a real breakthrough.
On the surface, the market appears to be rebounding in trading risk appetite, but what truly determines whether BTC can rise is whether incremental capital is strong enough.
ETFs are flowing in again, so why is BTC still not rising?
On August 3 and 4, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $170 million and $212 million respectively, totaling about $382 million over two days. This figure is not bad; at the very least, it shows that institutional funds have not completely left. citeturn623018search0turn316184calculator0
But the problem is, these funds can only support prices at this point and are not enough to drive a new main rally.
In the first half of this year, ETFs experienced continuous outflows, and the selling pressure accumulated in the market did not completely disappear just because funds returned in two days. The current inflow feels more like a fix, rather than the start of a new round of large-scale allocation.
This is also why Bitcoin has been able to hold between $62,000 and $64,000, but has never been able to quickly reclaim higher levels.
Funds are choosing AI over cryptocurrency
The biggest competitor in this round is neither gold nor the US dollar, but AI stocks.
The earnings of companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have reinforced the logic of AI capital expenditure, prompting a rapid rebound in tech stocks. The S&P 500 rose 1.8% on August 4, the Nasdaq gained 2.6%, and the market's most willing funds for risk are concentrating in AI, semiconductors, and tech leaders. citeturn316184news28turn316184news30turn316184news32
In contrast, Bitcoin currently lacks new profit stories and no new app explosions.
When investors can buy AI companies with growing revenue, realized profits, and expanding orders, Bitcoin relies solely on "scarcity" and "future regulatory benefits," making it difficult to quickly snatch capital.
This does not mean Bitcoin's long-term logic has failed, but rather that it has temporarily lost out on capital efficiency.
Strategy's start selling coins affects more than just quantity
Last week, Strategy sold 1,638 Bitcoins, cashing out about $105 million to pay preferred dividends and repurchase STRC. After the sale, the company still holds about 842,100 Bitcoins. citeturn623018news37turn623018news38
Judging by the numbers alone, this sale is not enough to crush the market.
The real issue is that the narrative has changed.
Previously, Strategy represented long-term demand of "buy only, not sell," but now it is beginning to use Bitcoin as a source of liquidity to maintain its capital structure. The market is concerned whether Strategy will sell more Bitcoin if stock price, financing capacity, or preferred stock systems continue to come under pressure.
It may not necessarily become a persistent seller, but it is no longer a buyer the market can rely on unconditionally.
## What really needs to be watched next is not just a single day's ups and downs
I believe Bitcoin cannot yet be defined as re-entering a bull market, but it has not yet formed a new crash trend.
The $62,000 to $63,000 range remains a short-term hold. If ETFs continue to flow in and BTC can break through $66,000 to $69,000, the market may resume trading and reverse.
Conversely, if ETF funds turn negative again, the AI rally in the US stock market continues to drain liquidity, and corporate vaults like Strategy keep selling, so Bitcoin retesting $60,000 would not be surprising.
Now, the most important contradiction is clear:
**Bitcoin is not short of positive news or long-term stories; what it truly lacks is sustained incremental capital that can drive price breakouts. **
Until this issue is resolved, the rebound around $64,000 feels more like a stabilization rather than the start of a new bull market.
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