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$SPCX Yesterday it jumped a bit, but was quickly smashed by the earnings report:
1. Although business revenue exceeded expectations, the cost input was even greater. Moreover, the company announced that costs would increase over the next two quarters, but people were actually scared off by Musk's decisiveness.
2. Starlink is now its only cash cow, with revenue of 4.291 billion, accounting for 55% of total revenue. User growth reached 12 million, basically doubling, but per capita income dropped from 85 to 66, indicating it has hit a bottleneck.
The rocket business's old business actually lost even more, losing 542 million yuan in the second quarter, with losses widening by 47%.
The AI business has become its biggest money-grabbing beast. In Q2, it spent 18.3 billion but only recovered 2.5 billion, barely filling the cash cow business, and it lost money in Q3 and Q4—quite alarming.
3. I feel that the current $SPCX stock price is still overvalued. SpaceX is indeed a good company, but the current price may not be a good stock. Although Starlink is a money printer, it can't support the rocket and AI businesses. Business development isn't played this way—while market share is necessary, revenue can't fill the gap, making it a life-or-death gamble for the future.
Finally, to be fair, it has to be $SPCX. Who can make their financial reports look this good, like watching a sci-fi movie?
#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? If the two-day rally in $SPCX convinced you to buy, today's price action may have been a harsh reminder of how quickly sentiment can change.
The stock surged to 130 following the earnings release, only to reverse sharply and fall to around 116 within hours. Many short sellers were squeezed before the move reversed, while late buyers were caught chasing momentum.
In hindsight, much of the optimism surrounding the earnings report appears to have been priced in ahead of the announcement.
Now the market's attention shifts to the upcoming share unlock. The first tranche—representing roughly 20% of total shares—will become eligible for sale. Not every insider will sell, but not everyone will continue holding either. Any increase in supply has the potential to create additional short-term pressure.
The key question now is whether demand is strong enough to absorb that new supply. The answer could determine the next major move for $SPCX .
#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates 今天还有一个热点是三星,7月22日Galaxy Unpacked发布会上宣布要给Samsung Wallet加原生稳定币支持,演示画面里放的是Circle的USDC界面,但三星没有正式确认发行方、区块链、托管模式和上线时间,这几个最关键的技术细节全部留白,只给了一个方向性的信号。
真正让这件事值得关注的不是三星又多了一个功能,是分发规模。三星2025年全年出货2.412亿台Galaxy手机,Samsung Wallet在韩国本土已经有将近1900万用户,业务覆盖61个国家,这个体量随便切一小块出来,都能碾压绝大多数加密原生应用的活跃用户数。
而且三星在这条赛道上已经埋伏了七年,2019年Galaxy S10就上线了基于Knox安全芯片的硬件隔离私钥金库,支持比特币以太坊和波场,还能接Ledger的硬件钱包,去年7月又和Coinbase合作,让7500万美国Galaxy用户能直接在钱包里买币,同期还砸了4.08亿美元入股Upbit母公司Dunamu。这次的稳定币功能,是把过去七年埋的这些基础设施,第一次真正串成一条完整的消费级分发链路。
我自己最关心的一个悬而未决的问题,是这个稳定币功能到底是托管还是非托管,资金到底是用户自己掌握私钥,还是三星或者第三方代管,这个选择直接决定了监管归谁管、出了问题谁负责,现在官方一个字都没提。
放在美国GENIUS法案和欧盟MiCA这些监管框架逐步落地的背景下,三星选择哪种模式,某种程度上比它选哪条公链更重要,因为这决定了稳定币能不能真正绕开加密行业过去十几年都没解决的获客难题,从交易所的自留地变成手机里像发短信一样自然的支付工具。$USDC $SPCX | Great Earnings, Weak Price Action—Here's Why
On paper, SpaceX's earnings were outstanding.
Yet the stock fell more than 6% after hours.
Why?
The market is focused on two major risks, not the headline numbers.
1️⃣ Massive AI Capex
Quarterly capital expenditures reached $18.37B, with roughly $15.8B directed toward AI infrastructure.
Although these investments support long-term growth, investors have become increasingly sensitive to heavy AI spending after the volatility seen across the semiconductor sector earlier this year.
2️⃣ A Huge Share Unlock
On August 6, approximately 911.5 million shares are scheduled to be unlocked.
With only about 640 million shares currently trading freely, this represents a significant increase in potential supply. At the same time, short interest remains elevated, creating the possibility of heightened volatility as the market digests the new shares.
The Bigger Picture
Fundamentally, the report was strong:
✅ Starlink profitability continues to improve.
✅ AI losses narrowed faster than expected.
✅ Revenue growth remains among the strongest in the market.
The concern isn't the business—it's whether the market can absorb a major supply increase.
What I'm Watching
📌 Can trading volume over the next few sessions absorb the additional shares? If so, it would suggest institutions are comfortable buying at current levels.
📌 If the stock sells off after the unlock, do long-term investors step in and accumulate?
My approach: Wait and watch.
The earnings were strong, but the share unlock is a real short-term overhang. There's no need to rush—letting the market reveal its direction first is often the better trade.
#SpaceX #SPCX #AI #Earnings #Stocks #NVDA #BTC #Investing #Trading
$SPCX $NVDA $BTC[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, with HBF and storage shortages trending before the SanDisk earnings report, what should we focus on tonight?
Pharaoh directly says the AI storage narrative is shifting from "hype" to "accounting mode," and HBF is the main character in this new script. SK Hynix and SanDisk jointly released the world's first HBF standard specification, and Google and Tenstorrent have directly announced joining the HBF alliance. SanDisk's CTO made it clear: the AI race is shifting from "competing on computing power" to "competing on memory," and relying solely on GPUs is no longer enough.
HBF is essentially a high-bandwidth solution built using NAND flash, with capacity far surpassing HBM, lower cost, and bandwidth close to HBM. Samples will be available by the end of this year, and full products will be seen next year. Once this thing is up and running, NAND's valuation logic will align with DRAM.
Looking back at market expectations, analysts predict SanDisk's revenue at 8.71 billion, a year-over-year increase of over 4 times, with a gross margin reaching 80%. The market consensus target price is 2250, implying a 60% upside. Executives have already hinted in previous earnings calls that NAND is undergoing a "structural transformation," with data centers becoming the largest market for the first time. NAND capacity growth in data centers is expected to exceed 60% by 2026. Even more interestingly, DRAM and HBM capacity for 2027 has already been sold out in advance, and NAND capacity bookings will be completed by the end of this month, with customers only receiving 60%-70% of their requested volume.
Pharaoh still says the same thing: obvious bad news won't move the market, and obvious good news isn't necessarily good news. Expectations before the earnings report are already maxed out. Tonight, the focus is on whether SanDisk can beat expectations, and beat them significantly. If so, expect SanDisk around 1600! If it just meets expectations, it might spike to around 1550 then fall back to around 1400!
So tonight, SanDisk is an extreme roller coaster, very exciting! $BTC $ETH $SNDK #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 超额收益=发生可逆危机的好公司×被情绪错杀的极低股价×市场空间极大的增长潜力×耐心等待时间的平方 分析目的：寻找一家业务简单易懂且具有深厚护城河的使命愿景驱动型公司，由诚实且理性的管理层经营，交叉确认目前股价是否低于其内在价值的买入时机。 危机投资模型NO.132 今日投研标的——Centrus Energy（NYSE:LEU） Centrus Energy（NYSE:LEU）投研核心关键摘要 · Preview 报告日 2026-08-04｜当前价 189.24 美元（上一交易日 2026-08-04 收盘）｜框架：成长性公司 本摘要是 IC 报告与公开文章的浓缩继承版，供 3 分钟读懂核心。本文给出价值区间与研究结论，决策权归读者。 完整版：危机投资实验室！ 一句话核心 Centrus 是美国唯一一家美资、持牌、且当下真在生产高丰度低浓铀的公司，它做的事值得存在；但现价 189.24 美元隐含了每年 7.10 亿美元的稳态盈利、折算约 2.05 万台离心机，而公司自己宣布的扩产规模是「数千台」——市场正在为一座还没有人宣布要建的工厂付钱。 这家公司到底干嘛 用一个场景说清楚。美国有Unitree Technology's IPO countdown has begun.
The currently disclosed issuance schedule is: inquiry on August 5, online subscription on August 10; The official launch date has not yet been announced. The final issue price has not yet been determined. The circulated price of about 104 yuan is calculated by dividing the proposed 4.202 billion yuan raised by the minimum issuance of 40.4464 million shares in reverse to a theoretical value, corresponding to a valuation of about 42 billion yuan, and is not the official pricing.
Estimated at 42 billion yuan:
Revenue in 2025 is expected to be about 1.7 billion yuan, corresponding to approximately 25 times the PS;
Net profit attributable to shareholders was 278 million yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of about 151 times;
Net profit excluding non-recurring items was 591 million yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of about 71 times.
Valuation is high, but Unitree is not just about concepts: in 2025, humanoid robot sales will reach 5,215 units, revenue of 868 million yuan, and a gross profit margin of 60.13%. The real risk is that in Q1 2026, revenue will grow by 68%, but non-recurring profit will drop by more than 52%, with R&D and market investment clearly eroding short-term profits.AI泡沫？还是下一轮生产力革命？
市场叙事正在发生改变。
几周前，市场还在担心：
* AI资本开支过高
* 科技股估值泡沫
* 大型科技公司无法将AI投入转化为利润
但AWS财报正在改变这个逻辑。
Amazon AWS：
营收同比增长 36.7%
单季收入 422亿美元
年化收入运行率约1690亿美元
运营利润率39%
Backlog增长154%
核心变化：
AI不再只是“烧钱故事”。
它正在逐渐变成：
收入增长 → 利润增长 → 现金流增长
微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊正在证明：
巨额AI投资，可能正在成为下一轮生产力革命的基础设施。
与此同时，比特币正在等待下一次方向选择。
部分分析认为：
BTC可能仍需要一次最后的恐慌洗盘，清除过度杠杆，然后开启新的趋势。
关注区域：
58000美元
↓
47000美元
但长期趋势仍取决于：
全球流动性
监管环境
机构资金
AI生产力提升
市场正在从：
“AI泡沫恐惧”
转向：
“AI商业化信心”。
未来几年，真正受益的可能是那些掌握基础设施、数据和现金流的公司#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Compared to Micron and SanDisk, I currently have more confidence in Mywell, but the core logic is not simply betting on storage price increases, but rather its growth potential in AI data center high-speed interconnects, optical communications, Ethernet switching, and custom XPUs.
Mywell posted strong performance in both revenue and cash flow last quarter, with the company providing a revenue guidance of about $2.7 billion for the quarter and stating that AI-related orders continue to grow. As large cloud service providers continue to expand their AI computing clusters, internal demand for 800G, 1.6T optical interconnects, switching chips, and custom computing solutions within data centers is expected to keep increasing. This is also the main reason why I am relatively optimistic about Mywell.
SanDisk's upcoming financial report can serve as an auxiliary verification of the industry chain's prosperity, but it will not be the only condition for me to increase my position in Mywell. If SanDisk's performance was mainly due to rising NAND prices and improved inventory cycles, the direct mapping to Mywell would be relatively limited; Only when demand for enterprise-grade SSDs, AI data centers, and cloud service providers' capital expenditure guidance strengthens in tandem, will Marvel's fundamental logic be further strengthened.
From a price structure perspective, Mywell has recently shown strong relative strength, with limited pullbacks and good sustained gains, indicating that market funds are trading early on its AI business growth and earnings expectations. However, the fact that there are more gains and fewer declines alone only indicates a strong trend and cannot be directly concluded that institutions are accumulating at low levels.
Currently, Mywell has experienced a significant rise, and market expectations for a strong earnings report are rapidly heating up. Therefore, even if the results announced at the end of August continue to grow, they need to clearly exceed the company's previously issued revenue and profit guidance, and further raise the outlook to further drive the stock price higher. If the financial report only slightly beats expectations, it is actually necessary to be wary of positive factors materializing under high expectations.
My strategy is to use low leverage and build positions in batches, rather than making a big position all at once before the earnings report. If SanDisk's earnings confirm that demand for AI data centers continues to strengthen and that Mywell can still hold key support after a pullback, I will consider increasing some positions; At the same time, it will retain sufficient funds to wait for Mywell's earnings report to be released, in order to reduce gaps in the reports and the liquidity risks associated with stock tokens.
Overall, I remain optimistic about Mywell's medium- to long-term AI infrastructure logic, and the company has the foundation to deliver strong earnings reports $MRVL #财报观察员: Mixed results, unlocking imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? In the past month, the stock prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have dropped by about 23% and 35%, respectively. On one hand, the market is concerned that HBM prices won't rise and NAND may be oversupplied; On the other hand, Goldman Sachs believes pessimism has intensified, even predicting that "HBM prices may nearly double at the highest next year." Why can the same industrial chain experience both a "sharp drop in stock price" and a "possible price increase" in the same industrial chain? To put it bluntly, people are not arguing about whether AI still has demand, but how long this great business can last, and whether the current high expectations have already run too fast. [A drop in stock price doesn't mean HBM suddenly has no buyer] The most turbulent moments in the market are often when good news and bad news are on the table at the same time. Samsung has announced mass production of HBM4 and has begun commercial shipments, and expects HBM sales in 2026 to grow more than threefold compared to 2025. TrendForce's judgment is also on the tighter side: in the 2027 HBM contract negotiations, suppliers may have stronger bargaining power, due to tight supply and demand and rising manufacturing costs for next-generation products. This information indicates that AI's demand for high-bandwidth memory has not suddenly disappeared. But stocks trade with expectations. The market has long known that AI requires a large amount of memory, and has long rated "shortages, price hikes, and long-term demand" highly. Once someone worries about competitors expanding production, increasing NAND inventory, or HBM price increases slower than expected, capital will recalculate the costs. Therefore, a stock price drop does not necessarily mean the end of the HBM rally; it could also be a way to lower expectations that were already overly high#SpaceX's first earnings report exceeds expectations, but unlocking remains a key variable
Three days ago, Long Jie thoroughly analyzed the bullish and bearish logic of $SPCX. Now that the earnings report is out, it just confirms my initial judgment: positive earnings can only support a short-term rebound, the real pressure on the market hasn't disappeared at all.
Many retail investors rush in after seeing the earnings data, thinking that exceeding expectations means the market will directly reverse into a strong bull run, eagerly chasing the rally 🥵
But you all overlooked an important fact! Right after the earnings report, a large volume of shares will be unlocked. Early investors have very low cost bases, and now with the positive news pushing prices up, they are eager to sell and take profits. This is why the market surged sharply and then quickly plunged again.
Many people lose money essentially due to information asymmetry—they only see the surface-level good news but miss the hidden risks behind unlocking and selling pressure.
Usually, follow Long Jie more often; various news, timelines, and the underlying bullish and bearish logic will be clearly analyzed in advance to help everyone break through information barriers, avoid hidden market traps, and steadily grasp every market move!
#EarningsObserver: Mixed results, unlocking imminent! What’s next for SpaceX? $SNDK $BICO On paper, SpaceX's earnings report looked outstanding. Yet $SPCX dropped more than 6% after hours.
Why?
The market is focused on two major concerns:
1️⃣ Massive AI spending
Quarterly capital expenditures surged to $18.37 billion, more than 6x higher than a year ago, with $15.8 billion directed toward AI infrastructure. Right now, investors are highly sensitive to rising AI capex, especially after the semiconductor sector's volatility earlier this year.
2️⃣ A huge share unlock
On August 6, approximately 911.5 million shares become eligible for sale. With only about 640 million shares currently in the public float, this represents a significant increase in potential supply. Meanwhile, short interest is already estimated at $24.6 billion, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Despite the post-market decline, the business fundamentals remain strong.
• Starlink continues to demonstrate improving profitability.
• The AI segment is reducing losses faster than expected.
• Revenue growth remains among the strongest in the industry.
The key question now isn't the earnings—it's whether the market can absorb the incoming supply.
What I'm watching:
• Can the market absorb selling pressure in the days following the unlock?
• If shares weaken, will long-term investors step in and accumulate?
For now, I'm staying patient. The earnings are behind us, but the market's reaction to the share unlock will likely determine the next major move.
$SPCX X $NVDA $BTC
#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates 📊 $SNDK: All Eyes on Earnings
After dropping from roughly 2,354 to 1,215, SanDisk has given up nearly half of its value, making this earnings release a pivotal event for investors.
Market sentiment remains divided:
🐂 Bullish view: Much of the negative news may already be reflected in the current price, leaving room for a recovery if results surprise to the upside.
🐻 Bearish view: Even solid earnings may not be enough if management issues cautious guidance or lowers future expectations.
Investors will be focused on more than just headline numbers. Key areas to watch include:
• NAND flash pricing trends
• AI and data center demand
• Gross margin performance
• Outlook for upcoming quarters
Technical levels to monitor:
🟢 1,200 – Major support zone
🔴 1,350 – Important resistance level
A positive report could improve sentiment, but a sustained recovery will likely require the stock to reclaim key resistance while management delivers confidence in long-term growth.
Ultimately, the market isn't just judging the last quarter—it's evaluating whether the company's growth story still has momentum.
#SNDK #Earnings #AI #Stocks #Markets #BTC #ETH #SOL
#30YrYieldTopOrStart
#USJapanYenIntervention
#EarningsWeekAhead
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops Issuance isn't the real issue. ETH becoming a staking derivative is.
That's the conversation we should be having, because it has far-reaching implications—not just for ETH as an asset, but for Ethereum's neutrality, decentralization, and long-term security.
The key question is simple:
Do we enshrine liquid staking tokens (LSTs), or do we not?
Trying to sit in the middle risks creating more uncertainty than either approach. The decision will shape Ethereum's future far more than debates over issuance alone.
#Ethereum #ETH #DeFi #Staking #Crypto$ONDO 和 CLARITY 法案
有人问起 $Ondo 和 CLARITY 法案，我大约两三周前写了一篇长文讨论这个。你可以去搜搜看。
我的立场没有改变。
CLARITY 法案的通过会帮助 ONDO 吗？
绝对会，但如果你只盯着 CLARITY 法案，就错过了整个故事。
现在，CA 将为美国数字资产制定更清晰的规则，减少监管不确定性，并赋予机构更大信心参与其中。该法案已通过众议院，后来又在参议院银行委员会推进，但仍未成为法律。
但 ONDO 的整个增长论点并不依赖华盛顿。
CLARITY 法案针对美国。
Ondo 已经获得监管批准，在 30 个欧洲国家提供代币化股票和 ETF，触及超过 5 亿潜在投资者的市场。
它还在通过瑞士和阿布扎比发展受监管的准入。
这很重要，因为大多数山寨币在美国以外——或者说任何地方——几乎没什么进展。
$Ondo 在没有 CLARITY 法案的情况下，继续扩展其资产、持有人、交易量、分销和监管足迹。但回过头去看，在山寨币被摧毁的同时，它实现了疯狂的增长和基础设施扩张。
代币价格贬值了，而底层平台已成为代币化股票的全球领导者，以及代币化国债的最大平台之一。
RWA 全球领导者
今年 #1 山寨币
并将在 2026 年及未来几年继续保持 #1
所以不，我不认为 CLARITY 法案未通过就会摧毁 ONDO 论点。
它只会延迟一个主要的美国催化剂。它不会抹去 Ondo 已经建立的国际业务。
而这就是喷子和小黑粉们一直忽略的部分。他们只盯着价格，因为他们从未在早期持有亚马逊或苹果。
基础设施需要时间。比我自己更有耐心去给事物时间，我自己也对此有罪。这个周末我会发帖解释基础设施玩法不是一个周期的故事。
朋友们，耐心点，你们会得到回报。
但我跑题了……基于已经发生的增长和超预期表现，没有美国监管清晰度，ONDO 仍然被低估。
CLARITY 法案会给它一个推动。
但它不是支撑整个公司的基础。一、宏观流动性角度：通胀预期反弹，直接压制降息交易逻辑 这是当前对币圈影响最核心的传导链条。霍尔木兹海峡承担全球近 30% 的原油海运量，地缘局势升温会直接推高原油价格，打断通胀下行节奏。 市场原本的核心交易主线是美联储降息预期，油价反弹会迫使市场下调降息幅度与降息次数预期，带动美元指数、美债收益率上行。而加密货币作为高波动风险资产，估值高度依赖流动性宽松预期，降息预期降温会直接压制 $BTC 、eth等主流币的估值，对整体市场形成系统性利空。 二、资产属性角度：避险叙事出现分歧，冲突烈度决定最终方向 伊朗事件对币圈并非单向影响，核心取决于冲突的升级程度，对应比特币的双重资产属性： 有限对峙阶段（嘴炮、局部摩擦）：比特币仍以风险资产属性主导，走势会跟随美股等风险资产同步回调，避险资金会优先流向黄金、美元，加密市场整体承压。 超预期升级阶段（封锁海峡、大规模冲突）：若局势失控冲击美元结算体系与中东秩序，比特币 “去中心化、无国界、抗制裁” 的数字黄金属性会被激活，叙事从 “风险资产” 切换为 “避险工具”，反而可能走出独立上涨行情，成为资金对冲地缘风险的另类选项。 三、资金结构角度：市场SanDisk ($SNDK) earnings tonight: Is the AI storage supercycle still intact?
While Nvidia remains the centerpiece of the AI trade, tonight's spotlight is also on SanDisk ($SNDK), as investors look for fresh evidence that AI-driven demand for storage continues to accelerate.
The investment thesis is straightforward: as AI models become larger and more data-intensive, demand for enterprise SSDs, NAND Flash, and high-performance storage is expected to remain strong. Tight supply across key memory segments has reinforced the view that storage companies could be among the biggest beneficiaries of AI infrastructure spending.
However, this earnings report is about much more than headline revenue and EPS.
Investors will focus on management's commentary regarding:
Full-year guidance and whether it is raised.
The outlook for NAND Flash pricing.
Long-term customer supply agreements.
AI data center demand and enterprise spending.
Gross margin sustainability as supply gradually improves.
If management reaffirms strong AI-driven demand and signals that pricing remains healthy, it could provide another boost not only for SanDisk, but also for the broader storage and memory sector.
That said, expectations are already elevated. After the strong AI-driven rally, valuations leave less room for disappointment. Even solid quarterly results may not be enough if guidance fails to exceed market expectations.
Bottom line: Tonight's earnings will be a key test of whether the AI storage supercycle still has momentum. Strong guidance could reinforce confidence across memory stocks, while cautious commentary on pricing or demand could trigger renewed volatility despite healthy current results. #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops #BigTechEarningsWatch Palantir opened earnings week with a 93% growth print, raised guidance, popped 12%. Guidance is the ticket — beat without it and you get sold 📈
AMD after Aug 4 close: consensus $11.3B revenue, +47% YoY. Margins and AI chip demand are the real read. If AMD's AI numbers hold up, it puts more pressure on the "AI demand is fading" narrative 👀
SpaceX drops its first ever public-company earnings the same day. Aug 6 lockup of up to 911.5M shares right after — sell pressure and Starlink margin quality both under the microscope simultaneously 🚀
Circle pre-market Aug 5: consensus ~$714M, directly tied to USDC supply dynamics and rate sensitivity as reserves slip to $72.06B. Stablecoin economics are the story here 💵
Three very different companies, all reporting in a 48-hour window. Palantir already showed the market rewards guidance over revenue 🤔
AMD, SpaceX, Circle — which one has the most riding on this print for the broader crypto and AI narrative? 👇#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
Breaking news! The Federal Reserve is split between raising and cutting interest rates!
Current situation in the U.S.
Severe deficit and massive debt: The fiscal year 2026 deficit is expected to reach $1.9 to $2 trillion; the pace of rate cuts is slower than expected, and the U.S. government must pay trillions in annual debt interest costs;
Inflation: Overall inflation has eased but remains above target; nominal CPI year-over-year growth has dropped to 3.5%, higher than the expected 2%, intensifying the Fed's dilemma;
Unemployment continues to rise: Unemployment rate is about 4.2%+ with monthly new nonfarm payrolls down to 57,000, the Fed faces the risk of nonlinear deterioration in the labor market;
The current U.S. national condition presents a typical complex mix of "high fiscal risk + soft-landing employment + inflation not yet fully resolved."
The extreme national situation has intensified the partisan split:
Rate hike faction (focused on inflation): Inflation has been above the 2% target for over 5 years, and current rates are not restrictive enough, fearing inflation rebound or long-term stickiness;
Rate cut faction (focused on employment): Signs of marginal deterioration in the labor market, worried that the lagging effects of high rates will cause rapid employment decline or even recession.
The more suitable economic direction now:
Maintain restrictive interest rates and observe, rather than unilateral aggressive hikes or urgent cuts.
Rate cuts: Like "drinking poison to quench thirst," they can temporarily ease corporate debt pressure and stock market sentiment, but at the cost of allowing a second price rebound, further erosion of monetary purchasing power, ultimately accumulating into a harder-to-manage long-term inflation crisis.
Rate hikes: Like "carving a mark on a boat to find a sword," they try to apply old methods to a changed economic reality, not only failing to address supply-side inflation but forcibly breaking through weak employment and financial systems, triggering a hard economic landing.
The correct path: Maintain current high rates; this can continue to suppress inflation while allowing a buffer period to observe employment data, making adjustments only after CPI and unemployment trends become clear, which is the safest approach. $SPCX is reversing despite SpaceX delivering an earnings beat.
With CoinDesk reporting 92% YoY revenue growth, it appears much of the bullish news had already been priced in before the release.
The post-earnings pullback suggests traders were heavily positioned ahead of the announcement, leading to a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction.
A strong report doesn't always translate into higher prices when expectations are already elevated
#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates .Will the altcoin season start with $DOGE? This matter sounds like a story about "the second grandpa at the village entrance decides to lead Wall Street"—ridiculous, but in the crypto world, it's not necessarily true.
To get straight to the point: it's possible, but don't go all-in.
Dogecoin is something every crypto veteran knows — it's an "emotional amplifier." A single tweet from Musk can take you to the skies; Musk changed his profile picture, and it can go underground. When it rises, the entire meme coin family feels like it's New Year's—SHIB, FLOKI, PEPE...... One by one, they charged forward as if injected with adrenaline. From this perspective, DOGE is indeed the "spiritual totem" of altcoins; if it stands firm, it can indeed lead a wave of momentum.
But the problem is, the knockoff season ≠ meme season. The real knockoff season is when public chains like Ethereum and SOL that are "doing serious work" get up and running first, and then funds gradually spill over into various small coins. What about Dogecoin itself? Besides "Wow" and emojis, the technical updates are as slow as a snail crawling. If it were to take the lead, this rally would most likely be an "emotional bull" — fast to come and go, like a tornado, leaving chaos behind.
So, if DOGE suddenly starts skyrocketing, you can get excited, but don't get carried away. It's more like the "starting gun" of the knockoff season than the "final stop." When you hear gunshots, quickly check the actual track for any movement—that's where you should seriously consider it.
After all, in the crypto world, it's fine to follow a dog, but don't turn yourself into a dog.The Solana community is pushing for new fee and production cut proposals.
If implemented, the daily burn volume could increase from the current about 650 SOL to 7,500–9,000 SOL; According to reports, the value of burning could increase from about $47,000 per day to a maximum of about $650,000.
Another supporting proposal also plans to reduce issuance of approximately 18.9 million SOL over the next six years.
But there is a data point that is often overlooked:
Currently, Solana issues about 60,000 SOL coins daily. Even if 9,000 coins are burned daily, it is far from truly deflationary.
Moreover, the proposal still requires about 40 million additional SOL staked to reach the official voting threshold.
So at this stage, a more accurate statement is: SOL is accelerating the reduction of inflation, not just deflation.
Do you think this will become a catalyst for SOL's next rally?惊天消息！标普500冲上7700点刷历史新高，总市值破70万亿美金！
70万亿的盘子，是结构性繁荣还是昙花一现？我的答案：是带刺的结构性长牛。
别光看指数疯，底层是EPS和自由现金流在真兑现，AI资本开支转成账面营收了，不是纯吹泡泡。 前十大权重揽近四成市值，资产负债表硬、定价权在手，全球钱拿它当通胀避风港。场外几万亿离岸资金在货币基金里趴着，降息周期现金收益往下走，逢低就有人接，流动性垫厚着。
但别上头——这是高波动、高分化的局，不是无脑普涨。巨头撑场，垃圾股照跌，7700不是终点但也随时洗人。$SPX #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 美东时间8月4日，标普500大涨1.79%收报7736.52点，首次站稳7700整数关口，刷新历史收盘纪录，纳指、道指同步同步走强，全球风险偏好全面回暖。本轮突破由三重核心利好共振驱动：其一，美伊和谈预期升温，国际油价单日大跌超6%，能源带来的通胀压力大幅缓解，美债长端收益率下行，成长股估值得到支撑；其二，二季度财报季盈利超预期，超85%成分股业绩高于机构预估，Palantir、存储芯片企业上调全年指引，AI算力产业链成为指数拉升核心动力，费城半导体指数单日暴涨6.55%；其三，美国ISM制造业PMI创四年新高，经济软着陆预期强化，市场押注美联储年内开启降息，空头集中回补助推指数突破关键阻力位。
但高位风险不容忽视：指数上涨高度依赖头部科技巨头，中小盘个股跟涨力度偏弱，市场分化严重；当前指数估值处于历史高位，纽交所杠杆资金持续走高。同时美伊谈判存在变数，若地缘冲突再度反复，油价反弹将再度压制估值。短期指数依托利好存在惯性冲高动能，但高位震荡加剧，后续走势核心取决于美联储政策信号、中东局势以及AI企业财报指引，不宜盲目追高。$BTC $ETH $SNDK 🦈 Smart money is quietly flowing back into the crypto market, while most retail investors remain anxious about short-term fluctuations.
📊 On August 5, the US spot crypto ETF released a key data:
📈 Net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs: $211.5 million
📈 Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $53.1 million
💰 Total net inflow: $264.6 million
This wave of buying is not driven by retail investor sentiment, but rather a clear signal that institutional funds continue to increase their positions amid macro uncertainty. Don't treat this level of net inflow as noise; it's most likely a systematic allocation of long-term funds.
🧠 Historical patterns deserve attention: periods of intense market volatility are often windows for long-term funds to build positions in batches, while short-term sentiment remains cautious or even panicked. Institutions take advantage of volatility to accumulate shares, while retail investors lose their way amid price fluctuations; this kind of fragmentation is common.
But is this $264.6 million the starting point of a larger trend, or is it merely selective bottom-fishing? The answer isn't in the single-day data, but in whether the price structure, trading volume, and ETF capital flow can resonate going forward.
🔎 Here are a few key observation points:
🟠 Can BTC construct consecutive rising lows during pullbacks and maintain a bullish structure?
🔵 As institutional demand recovers, has ETH's on-chain activity improved in tandem, forming fundamental support?
📊 Can net ETF inflows continue positively over the next few trading days, rather than just a pulse-like one-day trip?
⚖️ A reminder: a single day's data cannot define trends; sustainable institutional accumulation is the truly leading signal worth tracking. What should be done now is not to chase rises or cut losses, but to closely monitor capital flows and price confirmation.
⚠️ This article is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research and strictly manage risks.
#DailyOrbitSpaceX's first financial report after going public provided the market with a typical example of "numbers win, but stock price doesn't." For the second quarter ending June 30, the company achieved revenue of $7.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 92%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $6.9 billion; Net loss was $541 million, with a loss per share of $0.09, less than half of analysts' previous estimates. By business, connectivity revenue was $4.29 billion, up 66% year-on-year; AI business revenue was $2.56 billion, up 247% year-on-year; Space business revenue was $962 million, up 29% year-on-year. Looking at growth alone, this achievement is not bad. Axios Financial Report Data · AP earnings report However, after the earnings were released, the stock price fell more than 6% in after-hours trading. Why? 1. The market is not worried about growth, but about the cost of growth. SpaceX's current structure can be simply understood as: connectivity businesses like Starlink provide relatively stable cash flow, space business handles long-term R&D, and AI business is undergoing significant infrastructure expansion. In the second quarter, the company invested about $15.8 billion in AI infrastructure, expanding its computing power scale to 1.4GW. High investment itself is not necessarily a bad thing; the problem lies in the market needing to answer three questions: When will this computing power generate stable revenue? Can revenue growth outpace depreciation and operating cost growth? Can the capital recovery efficiency mentioned by the company be verified for several consecutive quarters? This is also the core divergence after the earnings report. Bullish viewFundamental Research Report $STRK / StarkNet (L2/Sidechain) $3.20
Essentially: StarkNet ($STRK) has an overall score of 58/100, with a rating that narrative is more important than reality. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Fundamental breakdown: StarkNet (token $STRK), L2/sidechain track. Focusing on ZK Rollup L2. Benchmarked against ARB and OP. Traditional collaboration between enterprises relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, which causes gas surges, TPS constraints, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents during high concurrency. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Looking at it together with peers (unified standard, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market cap, StarkNet $3.00B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Regarding FDV, StarkNet is $4.20B, ARB is undisclosed, OP is undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, StarkNet is $2.00M, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, StarkNet has not disclosed this, ARB has not disclosed, OP has not disclosed it. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. In short: solid fundamentals (rating 58/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risk warning: Short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break off, usage collapses). Tracking metrics: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Derived from publicly available data, not investment advice. Core indicators changed by more than 30%, conclusions were invalid.
That's all for now. See you next time.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit#西联推出稳定币卡，接入Solana生态
西联这次没玩虚的。
美元稳定币由 Anchorage Digital Bank 发（美国 OCC 监管的银行），跑在 Solana 上——这组合本身就说明：他们不是来试水，是来铺路的。
配合 Rain 的发卡能力 + Visa 网络，目标是“部分市场日常消费”。注意，不是全球，是“部分市场”——说明他们知道边界在哪，也知道监管红线在哪。
支持者说这是“稳定币落地支付的关键一步”，我同意一半。
另一半是：现在链上活跃度、持仓分布、流动性深度，都还撑不起“大规模外部采用”。别被“接入Solana”四个字骗了——Solana 快，但不等于“能用”。
更值得盯的是万事达卡那笔收购：最高 18 亿美元收 BVNK。
这不是“布局”，是“买基础设施”。传统支付巨头已经不跟你谈“要不要稳定币”，而是直接“买下来，自己管”。
对散户来说，别急着冲卡或冲币。
这波是机构间的基础设施战争，不是散户的财富密码。
但如果你在做跨境支付、商户收单、或者稳定币套利，现在该开始看合规路径了——因为游戏规则，正在被重写。BTC bull strength marks a turning point relative to altcoins, and the market is more important than the surface area increase rate of funds that verifies the quality of funds rather than price rebounds. Even within the same rebound, the supply and demand strength of BTC and altcoins is diverging. As of this morning in Asia, major coins all rose. BTC rose 1.5% to $64,500, ETH rose 1% to $1,880, and SOL recovered to $74, gaining nearly 1%. XRP is holding steady at $1.07, while DOGE has only seen a slight rebound. Notably, HYPE and ZEC posted gains larger than the market average, and BICO surged 33% in a single day, causing trading volume to skyrocket. The key question is whether this move will be interpreted as a simple rebound or a shift in the direction of funds. Although the price increase itself is not large, the clear variation between stocks means the market is not buying all assets equally. While BTC held steady at $64,000, showing relative strength, altcoin gains were driven by individual$ETH $BTC 比特币今早冲到阶段性高点后，小级别周期已经露馅，明显触顶回落。
市场情绪还在怂，合约资金费率中性，多头也没疯到堆积，整体就是个磨叽的盘整。短期大概率要回踩修复，别指望一路猛冲。
消息面上，美联储还在鹰派硬撑利率（3.5%-3.75%），9月加息预期不低；CLARITY监管法案参议院还在拖着最后窗口，Coldcard钱包漏洞又被爆出上亿美元被盗，ETF资金流也忽冷忽热。这些乱七八糟的玩意儿一叠加，谁还敢瞎冲？
操作上，死盯63500、62500、61300这三个支撑位。价格回踩到这儿没有效砸穿，就是低多的好机会——别怂，直接干。今日强弱分水岭就是63500，只要它稳得住不破，小级别还能接着往上蹦，先看前高64500附近。
要是冲过64500却站不稳、动能直接萎了，那就等着再回踩挨打。真要是强势突破并打开空间，上方65500-67000就是空单埋伏的好位置，到时候别手软。
ETH走势分析
以太坊这两天区间清清楚楚，顶底结构明摆着。整体走势比比特币弱多了，资金全往大饼跑，它自己连独立买盘都凑不齐，跟条跟屁虫似的。
短线就围着1885顶部压力和1855底部支撑玩高空低多的区间博弈。只有强势突破1885并站稳，才算真开启上行，到时候1910-1935区间可以考虑砸空。
要是放量跌破1855，弱势直接加重，下方别慌，直接去1830-1805找企稳做多的位置就行。消息面那些监管、利率、黑客破事，对它影响更大，资金不回来之前就别指望它能独自起飞。
以上纯技术+消息面观察，市场有风险，自己把控仓位。#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $SPCX #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ 我热烈的马🐎！这三天走的真的是太墨迹了😤美股全面起飞，大饼虽然跌📉但是非常的有限，以太更不用说了，都快成稳定币了，仓位换美股去，真的是早就吃麻了，糟心…… 😣先喝杯奶茶甜一下！
30刀🔪挑战1000刀🔪 实盘交易
（第七天）
目前资金：150刀
操作思路：话说回来，以太在1880这里疯狂试探，今早两次触及，想进一步打高点，始终没有突破1886（打我止损）
短期上方1886这里只要不突破，它砸盘跌下来，只是时间的问题，到1886上面我就要处理仓位，进行止损了！
复盘交易：提一嘴火箭币$SPCX 昨天我发贴子，116说操作思路，空以太多火箭🚀，这周看125-130的区间，昨晚一路冲到130，目前我对火箭币的看法已经闭环了，没太太多的看法了，至于后续能到多少，还要看它的造化了！
总结：加密行情太墨迹了找机会做美股吧！$ETH #CLARITY法案推进受阻, the Senate divide widened
Continuing the thread mentioned yesterday, there is a new development today: Senate Majority Leader Thune officially confirmed on August 3 that the bill will receive a formal vote before the recess. This wording has been upgraded from 'it should be voted' to 'it will be put on the agenda'—a substantial development.
But I must be clear: getting a vote and passing are two completely different things. This time, the goal is not a simple majority, but the 60-vote threshold, a cross-party threshold. Republicans need to secure about seven Democratic votes. The current issue remains the same old issue: Senators Murphy, Van Hollen, and Merckley have officially opposed it. The reason is that the latest consolidated bill removed the ethical clause restricting business dealings between senior officials and the crypto industry.
Procedurally, the current pace is that if a motion to end the debate is submitted today, August 5, the earliest a vote on whether to enter the formal debate will be on Friday, August 7. This is just a procedural vote, not a final approval. The Senate only has four working days left to operate in Washington.
Polymarket's approval probability for the year is now between 30% and 33%, basically the same as the 35% I mentioned yesterday. There hasn't been a significant rebound because of Thun's confirmation of the backlog, indicating that the market doesn't believe that getting a vote will substantially increase the chances of passing. What everyone cares about most is whether the seven Democratic votes can actually be scraped.
I personally interpret Thune's move as a gesture of accountability rather than substantive advancement. Even if this vote fails, it can put the unresolved positions of every Democratic senator on the table, making it easier to hold accountable or apply pressure later. This is itself a political maneuver, not just for the bill to pass. #CLARITY法案推进受阻, the Senate divide widened $USDC This earnings season is sending a clear message: beating estimates is no longer enough.
SpaceX reported its first quarterly results as a public company, with Q2 revenue up 92% YoY to $7.81B and its operating loss narrowing from $970M a year earlier to $143M. Starlink subscribers doubled to 12M, helping connectivity revenue rise 66%.
But AI infrastructure capex reached $15.8B, up from $749M a year ago. SpaceX said NVIDIA hardware will power Starmind AI1, while Musk said its broader AI infrastructure would be built exclusively on NVIDIA chips. The stock gave back gains after hours. Next comes a supply test: 911.5M shares, about 12% of shares outstanding and more than the current public float, become eligible for sale on Aug 6.
AMD told a similar story. Q2 revenue reached $11.54B, up 50% YoY, while adjusted EPS came in at $1.66. Data Center revenue jumped 107% to $6.7B, or 58% of sales, and Q3 revenue guidance of about $13B topped consensus. Shares still fell more than 8% after hours as investors questioned whether the growth rate and roughly 56% non-GAAP gross margin could justify the valuation as Helios begins to ramp.
Three themes are driving the reaction:
· Growth quality: Is AI demand converting into durable profits?
· Capital intensity: How much spending is required to sustain that growth?
· Expectations: How much good news was already priced in?
SpaceX's NVIDIA decision also highlights the competitive backdrop facing AMD. It does not weaken AMD's reported Data Center growth, but it shows how fiercely major AI infrastructure contracts are contested.
The earnings bar has moved. The question is no longer whether companies can beat estimates, but whether their results can outrun expectations.
For crypto users, tokenized equities are bringing these earnings-driven moves closer to on-chain markets.
What matters most in this phase of the AI cycle: faster growth, stronger margins, or clearer returns on capex?
#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops The Federal Reserve also struggled to save the market
The previous two issues broke down the Fed's reform lineup and the triple structural pressures facing the dollar system. Today, we'll thoroughly explain all five major reform modules and see which direction this dollar system iteration is heading.
These five major reform modules essentially represent a comprehensive infrastructure upgrade of the dollar system from five dimensions, each addressing a core existing problem.
The first core module: restructuring the inflation framework and changing the core anchor of monetary policy. The inflation working group, led by top economists Mankiw and Sargent, is at the core of all reforms. The current clear direction is to replace traditional core PCE with truncated average PCE as the core observation target of monetary policy. Simply put, truncated average PCE means trimming the top and tail by removing the highest and lowest growth categories in the monthly dynamic PCE, and only counting the middle segments. This statistical method filters out short-term price shocks caused by geopolitical conflicts and supply chain fluctuations, more accurately reflecting the long-term trend of inflation. Objectively speaking, this inflation target will be smoother and lower for the Fed. The core significance of this approach is to help the Federal Reserve loosen its preference for inflation, so it is no longer constrained by traditional high inflation.
The second core module: Incorporate AI productivity into the policy framework to build a new growth anchor for the dollar system. The AI working group is the most significant adjustment of this reform and a key step in upgrading the dollar system from the petrodollar to the tech dollar. The long-term underlying support of the dollar system has never been limited to military and dollar settlements, but also to the long-term returns of U.S. assets. The AI industry revolution has already begun. According to Wharton estimates, by 2035, generative AI will boost total factor productivity in the U.S. by 1.5%, contributing a 0.2% annual productivity increase in peak years. The Federal Reserve's proactive inclusion of AI in its monetary policy framework essentially aims to deeply link the tech dividend to the dollar system in advance, sending a clear signal to global capital: the U.S. remains at the core of the global tech revolution, and dollar assets can best reflect the long-term premium of this revolution, thereby attracting sustained global capital inflows.
The third core module: optimizing the Fed's balance sheet and enhancing liquidity adjustment tools. In the past, the Fed's quantitative easing and balance sheet reduction were relatively rough, which easily caused large fluctuations in market liquidity. This reform aims to adjust the maturity structure of U.S. Treasuries, optimize trading rhythms, and align yield curve management, making the balance sheet a more refined regulatory tool, so that U.S. Treasuries are no longer a hot potato for the dollar system, while also reducing the Fed's backlash on financial system liquidity.
The remaining two modules are auxiliary support: economic data and policy communication. The former introduces real-time big data, enabling the Federal Reserve to regulate more quickly and precisely; The latter optimizes communication with the market, improves expectations management efficiency, and makes monetary policy delivery smoother.
Looking at the entire postwar dollar system evolution—from Bretton Woods to the petrodollar system and now to the tech dollar—the dollar's dominance has never been static, but has been continuously self-iterated and updated to adapt to the latest global landscape. The reform led by Washh is essentially another proactive upgrade of the dollar system, setting the operating rules for the next decade and profoundly affecting the direction of global capital flows, asset pricing logic, and even resource allocation in the global tech industry. Understanding this new set of rules is essential to seeing trends and seizing opportunities in future financial markets.
The above are personal views and do not represent investment advice. Please be aware of the risks.[Hit the peak and pulled back before earnings report: SNDK plunged from 1483 to 1417, smart money is already running]
$SNDK pre-market quoted at 1417.82, up 0.59%. The intraday high reached 1483.62, the lowest reached 1305.01, with a turnover of 2.518 billion yuan. It rebounded from the 1123 low, rising as much as 360 points, an increase of over 32%.
But the key signal arrived—J value at 24.23, STOCHRSI at 11.51, both falling into oversold territory. Prices remain high, but sentiment has already cooled first.
Polymarket trader TruongMyLan invested $53.35 at midday today, buying the Yes option on '$SNDK quarterly earnings exceeded expectations' at an average price of 94 cents [reference:1]. The market has almost reached a consensus on this, with the Yes odds remaining around 95% [reference:2]. This address holds about $177,600 long positions on $SNDK at 10x cross-margin trading, with an average price of $1,428.7, current unrealized profit of about $2,560, and a return rate of about 14.6%.
Note that he has already placed 100 sell orders densely in the $1559 to $1653 range, covering almost all his positions. Smart money is betting on earnings exceeding expectations, but also placing sell orders above 1559 in advance—indicating he's betting on positive earnings but not on continued short squeezing.
The market expects $SNDK revenue to be around $8.3–8.44 billion, with EPS around $34.2–$34.8 [reference:5]. Goldman Sachs raised its price target from $1,200 to $2,200 [reference:6], with analysts consensus expecting a "strong buy" and an average target price of $2,052.50 [reference:7]. $SNDK has exceeded expectations for five consecutive quarters, with the options market expected to fluctuate between 12% and 17.5% after earnings reports. The storage sector was overall strong today—$MU rose nearly 9%, $MRVL rose 14.5%, and $SKHY rose 8%.
But the market structure has changed. The price retreated from its highs, and both the J value and STOCHRSI entered oversold simultaneously, indicating that the balance between bulls and bears is shifting. Polymarket traders placed 100 sell orders above 1559, which is a clear signal—he bets earnings will exceed expectations, but not that the price will continue to rise.
The rally before the earnings report is a game of expectations, not a confirmation of fundamentals. If the earnings exceed expectations, $SNDK may continue to pressure the shorts to 1550-1600; If it falls short of expectations, a single bearish candlestick can bring it back to its original state. Shorting should wait until after the earnings report before reviewing; don't bet on direction before the report.
Keep an eye on financial reports, don't chase overstocks or buy stocks.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $MU $MRVL $SKHY $NVDA $INTC $TSM $ARM $SOXL $DRAM $WDC $STX $PLTR $ORCL $MSTR
#SNDK #闪迪 #存储芯片 #财报季 #Polymarket #逼空行情 #合约交易Everyone, the key to the next few weeks' market may not be in the candlestick charts, but in the Strait of Hormuz. The conduction chain is actually quite simple. With the straits reopening, crude oil supply has recovered, oil prices have plummeted, inflationary pressures have eased, expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes have cooled, and risk asset valuations have recovered. This single chain determines whether your account is red or green. The drop in oil prices already confirms this logic: the 10-year US Treasury yield fell for two consecutive days, with funds shifting from safe-haven assets to risk assets. SK Hynix rose 8 points, Micron rose 7.6, SanDisk gained 10.8%, and Nvidia gained over 2 points. Oil prices are the key switch for this rebound. But the agreement hasn't been signed yet. Iran denies direct negotiations with the United States, saying the only ongoing talks are with Oman regarding the Strait passage arrangements. Rubio said negotiations have made progress but are not yet complete, while Qatar said the draft agreement is circulating but has not yet formed a final text. Besentt said it could be reached today, but Iran said he hadn't talked to you. Who do you believe? If the agreement is only a temporary 60-day mechanism rather than a permanent solution, and the agreement fails in the next day or two, there is room for a rebound in oil prices after a sharp drop, and this round of US stock rebound and BTC rally is just a false breakout. If oil prices remain below $80, Q3 CPI data will drop significantly, lowering the probability of Fed rate hikes in 2026—this is the biggest macro positive. If oil prices are just a flash in the pan and rate hike expectations resurface, risk assets will be once again pinned down. Don't just look at BTC's candlesticks—keep a close eye on Hormuz's news feed. In the coming weeks, oil prices will be the true macro commander in the crypto world. The agreement was signed, and the oil price was high8.5 Evening Bitcoin Market Operation Analysis:
On the 4-hour evening chart, the top high of this cycle was 66,956, and the bottom low reached 62,275; the highs moved downward and the lows rose, with the channel continuously converging, representing the exhaustion of bearish momentum and the accumulation of bullish strength for an upward breakout, forming a typical bullish consolidation structure.
Currently, the price is running at 64,160, having broken out of the lower support zone. The short-term moving averages MA5/MA10 have turned upward, and for now, short-term bulls have the advantage!
Currently, resistance above is 65,550, and support below is 63,900. If it pulls back in the evening and does not break this level, the bullish trend remains intact. We remain bullish!
Evening market projection relies on support at 63,900 to consolidate momentum, followed by an upward push to 65,550. After the 4-hour candlestick successfully closes above the resistance line!
Trading strategy sharing: Bullish at 63,900-64,000, target 65,500-65,900, stop loss at $63,500 $BTC $ETH From rate cut expectations to rate hike debates, Fed divisions have become public, and the market has begun to repricing
In recent months, the market has been trading in one direction:
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
As U.S. inflation recedes from its highs, investors generally believe the rate hike cycle is over, and the biggest opportunity now is to wait for a shift in monetary policy.
But recently, market expectations have started to change.
There are more disagreements within the Fed regarding the future interest rate path, with some views believing the economy remains resilient, high interest rates may need to be maintained for a longer period, and the possibility of further tightening cannot be completely ruled out.
This has shifted the market from a "definite rate cut" back into an "uncertain cycle."
Why is the market changing like this?
The core reason is that the U.S. economic performance has not significantly deteriorated.
Past market concerns:
High interest rates suppress consumption.
Corporate investment will decline.
The economy may cool rapidly.
But in reality, the U.S. labor market remains stable, consumer spending is still supported, and some economic data even show economic resilience exceeding expectations.
This presents the Federal Reserve with new challenges.
If rates are cut too early, it could stimulate a rebound in demand and cause inflation to resurge.
If high interest rates remain high, economic pressure may increase.
The question now is no longer "when will rate hikes end?"
Instead:
Will rate cuts be delayed than the market expects?
The market's repricing of interest rate paths most directly affects risk assets.
In recent years, one important reason for the sustained rise of U.S. tech stocks is the market's anticipation of future liquidity improvements.
Especially in the AI industry chain, capital keeps betting on future growth.
However, if interest rates remain high for a long time, corporate financing costs will increase, putting pressure on overvalued assets.
The crypto market is also unable to escape the macro environment.
Bitcoin remains the central focus of the market for now.
After spot ETFs drove institutional capital inflows, BTC's market structure changed.
In the past, retail investor sentiment was more relying on the drivers; now, institutional allocation and global liquidity have become key factors.
If expectations for future rate cuts heat up again and dollar liquidity improves, risk assets may receive new capital support.
However, if high interest rates persist longer than expected, the market will still face financial pressure.
Ethereum's current market focus has also shifted.
In the past, investors focused more on ecosystem scale.
Now, there is a greater focus on value capture capabilities.
Stablecoins.
RWA。
DeFi。
Layer2。
Whether these directions can generate real demand will determine ETH's long-term competitiveness.
The market has moved from simply telling stories to validating business models.
SOL represents a highly elastic direction in the market.
Over the past year, Solana has attracted significant attention due to its low fees, high trading activity, and Meme ecosystem.
But highly elastic assets depend most on market sentiment.
When capital risk appetite increases, SOL tends to become a target for capital rotation.
However, volatility becomes more pronounced when liquidity tightens.
The biggest change in the market now is that investors are refocusing on a core issue:
Will money become cheaper in the future?
If the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle and global liquidity improves, both stocks and crypto markets may find support.
However, if inflation fluctuates and the Fed remains hawkish, the market may face valuation pressures again.
The discussion from rate cuts to rate hikes is essentially not about policy changes, but rather about increased market uncertainty about the future.
What will determine the direction of the market going forward is not just one single data point.
It is a contest between inflation, employment, economic growth, and the Federal Reserve's stance.
The market ultimately trades the direction of capital. $BTC Good afternoon, your account is in good condition.
After the stop-loss on BEAT, my mindset got back on track.
Now, I have a few matters in hand, sorting them out one by one.
$SPCX Short position
Open position at 116.94, current price at 113.09.
25U principal, 75x leverage, unrealized profit around 75U, +246%.
Stop-loss was set to 115.5, so this order broke even.
There are only two outcomes next: either the price keeps falling and profits keep running; Either they bounce back and leave without losing a single point.
Once such orders break even, the mindset changes completely—just hang them off and ignore them.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable
Last night's financial report was released, with revenue reaching 7.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92%. Not only is revenue rising, but losses have also decreased—operating losses narrowed from 970 million to 143 million, with both growth and loss improvement exceeding expectations.
It also partnered with NVIDIA to develop space AI satellite payloads.
The news itself is positive.
But tomorrow, the 100 billion yuan unlock is coming, and eligible shareholders can sell 20%.
Supply exceeds the current circulating supply.
Good earnings and large unlocking volumes are two factors hedging against each other.
The market doesn't know which side is stronger, so the stock price fluctuates around 108.
This is purely a technical shorting without involving fundamental games.
Position is normal, stop loss to protect your principal, just let it be.
$GRVT
It rose 25 points, with a strong bullish candlestick pushing the line to 0.336.
It looks pretty satisfying.
But during the daytime non-liquid session, small coins that have surged 25% vertically are 90% of those at Huamen.
Hot money has pulled up to attract chasers, and by the end of the session, they may crash directly next Monday.
Current price is 0.327, absolutely not chasing.
If it really is strong, there will definitely be a pullback later. Wait until it stabilizes around 0.30 or 0.28.
If you don't give them a chance, they miss out; missing out doesn't mean losing money.
$KITE
The daily chart bottomed out at 0.089, rebounding nearly 9 points.
The transaction volume remains pitifully small.
With these kinds of stocks, except for the main players playing themselves, retail investors are trapped inside.
Observe, don't touch.
SPCX has broken even, so micro-warehouses let it be.
Now, there are only two things to do:
SPCX stop-loss to confirm capital protection.
Turn off GRVT and don't watch it.
With all that, today's work is done.
On Wednesday, don't chase new opportunities; hold onto the profits you've already gained.
The order is hung, and the person leaves the screen.
Work is done.
#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? Nikkei futures opened up 2.6%, but ended up only 0.64% by the close—opening high and closing low, those who needed to run have left. A-shares, on the other hand, have been tough, opening low and rising high, with broad volume gains. The chip and communications main line led the way, with only 1 out of 103 hitting the daily limit-up. It's been a long time since we've seen such a price-to-fall ratio. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.24% after a day of grinding, the Tech Index improved +0.97%, gold stocks soared, and oil stocks flopped.
The logic is clear: external risk-on, oil price plunge→ benefiting manufacturing and technology (Japan and Korea A-shares), benefiting importing countries (India), benefiting gold (easing risk aversion but lowering inflation expectations actually benefiting gold prices?). ）。 Before the US-Iran agreement was implemented, global sentiment could still hold up; after it was implemented, we should be wary of selling the news.
Now it's up to us whether the US stock market can hold its ground tonight—if it pulls back, this Asian session will just be a catch-up rally, don't get carried away.#SpaceXBeatEstimates Beating expectations is always a positive signal, especially for a company's first earnings report as a public company. 📈 The revenue growth and much smaller operating losses definitely show strong execution. That said, I don't think the market will only focus on the headline numbers. Heavy investment in AI infrastructure could pay off in the long run, but it's also putting pressure on short-term profitability. On top of that, the upcoming lock-up expiration could bring extra selling pressure, even if the business fundamentals remain strong. Personally, I think the next few weeks will be more about market sentiment than earnings themselves. If the company continues delivering solid results and proves those AI investments can generate real value, the long-term story still looks compelling. It'll be interesting to see how investors balance short-term risks with long-term potential. 🚀📊AMD财报超预期，AI芯片第二梯队能否追上英伟达？
AMD最新财报表现超出市场预期，再次点燃了投资者对于AI芯片赛道的关注。
过去一年，AI基础设施投资持续升温，英伟达凭借GPU优势成为最大赢家，而AMD则被市场视为最有机会挑战英伟达的竞争者之一。
但财报超预期之后，一个新的问题也摆在市场面前：
增长真的来自长期需求，还是已经被提前计入估值？
AMD此次业绩改善，核心推动因素依然来自数据中心业务。
随着企业持续投入AI算力，云厂商不断扩建服务器规模，对于高性能计算芯片的需求快速增加。
AMD的Instinct系列AI加速卡成为公司重点增长方向。
市场看好的原因很简单：
AI需求还在扩大。
算力缺口依然存在。
全球企业都在寻找英伟达之外的替代方案。
这给AMD提供了增长空间。
但资本市场从来不会只看增长。
当一个行业成为最热门赛道，投资者关注的就会从：
“有没有增长”
变成：
“增长还能持续多久”。
目前AI芯片竞争已经进入更加激烈阶段。
英伟达拥有CUDA生态优势。
AMD需要通过硬件性能、软件生态以及价格竞争打开市场。
如果未来AI资本开支放缓，芯片需求增长速度下降，市场可能重新评估AMD当前估值。
这其实和加密市场的发展逻辑非常类似。
过去几年，加密市场也经历过多个热门周期。
资金追逐新公链。
追逐AI+Crypto。
追逐RWA。
但最终市场都会回到一个问题：
真实需求在哪里？
目前比特币依然是加密市场核心资产。
BTC价格维持在 6万美元中后段区域震荡。
随着ETF资金进入，比特币市场结构正在发生变化。
机构资金提高了市场稳定性，但短期价格依然受到全球流动性影响。
如果美股科技股继续保持强势，风险偏好提升，BTC也可能获得资金支持。
以太坊目前维持在 1800美元上方区域运行。
ETH和AMD面临的问题有一定相似：
市场认可长期价值，但需要看到增长转化。
以太坊拥有最大的链上生态，但投资者更加关注：
稳定币增长。
RWA应用。
链上收入。
这些因素能否真正推动ETH价值捕获。
SOL则代表另一类高增长资产。
过去一年，Solana依靠交易活跃度、Meme生态以及低成本优势获得大量关注。
但和AI芯片一样，高增长赛道最大的挑战不是有没有市场。
而是：
竞争者越来越多。
用户是否持续留下。
价值是否能够沉淀。
AMD财报超预期，证明AI基础设施需求依然强劲。
但市场真正关心的，是AMD能否从“AI受益者”变成“AI核心参与者”。
英伟达已经建立了强大的生态壁垒。
AMD想要进一步提升市场份额，需要证明的不只是产品竞争力，还有长期商业能力。
对于投资者来说，最危险的不是没有增长。
而是所有人都已经提前相信增长。
无论是AI芯片，还是加密市场。
真正的大机会，最终属于那些能够把预期变成现实的资产。$ETH Brothers, everyone knows that bull market funds will move from big pie to Ethereum, then to fake memes—a relay of the whole process. But now, the engine hasn't even started up—OI is frozen at 111,400 BTC, with 6 up and 9 down in width, BTC itself stagnant, and the first phase of the rotation chain hasn't even connected.
Here are the data: BTC 62,528, 24h -0.93%, volume shrinkage -31.3%, open interest frozen at 111,400, breadth ratio 6:9. GRVT lone +14.55% Looks lively, but it's the only one pulling the whole game. This isn't the horn, it's the last gasp before the engine goes off.
The real market restart looks like this: BTC first increased volume to make a statement→ ETH followed → mainstream altcoins spread→ meme chickens and dogs soared. Now it's down at the first level, the entire chain behind is frozen, the single coin surge is all just barely breathing, chasing in is a flying knife, not a flagpole.
My ADA long entry 0.1894 has an unrealized loss of -1.37%, and KAITO short entry 1.0033 has an unrealized loss of -0.81%. These two old coins are the "skipped level" in the rotation chain. They stick to it and wait for the rotation to restart, not rushing to catch the rest.
Here's a framework you can take: don't just focus on price movements—check the order of capital rotation (BTC→ETH→ knockoffs →memes) and whether they've been restarted. Before rotation ignites, any surge in the lone seed is a trap, not an opportunity.
Friends, do you think ETH will be the next target, or should you just skip the altcoin? Quote the number in the comments; if I guess wrong, I'll use it as a reverse indicator.
Next time, let's talk about "How to use the ETH/BTC exchange rate to determine the real start of rotation." This indicator is more honest than looking at candlesticks.
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
$BTC #资金轮动 #轮动熄火 #交易体系 #横盘 #行情分析 #新手科普 #风控策略 #OKX星球特朗普家族的两张面孔：一家亏钱也要囤币，一家悄悄卖币抵债
#特朗普家族矿企亏损仍增持BTC
同一个家族，同一个币价，在同一个星期交出了两份截然相反的“比特币答卷”。
一、American Bitcoin：亏了5720万，股价却涨了5%
American Bitcoin（Nasdaq: ABTC）Q2财报显示：净亏损5720万美元，连续第三个季度亏损。但财报发布后股价反而涨了超5%——市场不仅没崩，还给了个“奖励”。
亏损是纸面的，增持是真金白银的。
5720万亏损中7120万美元来自比特币持仓的公允价值减值——BTC价格跌了，账面上的持仓价值按市价重估，少了7120万，但公司一毛钱BTC都没卖。
二季度核心数据：
· 比特币储备：7021枚 → 8002枚（单季增长14%，约981枚）
· 挖矿产量：932枚（创单季历史纪录）
· 挖矿营收：6700万美元（环比+8%）
· 单枚挖矿成本：约3.65万美元（当时币价6.3万美元，挖出来就赚2.66万美元）
截至季度末，自有矿机约8.92万台，总算力28.1 EH/s。公司由特朗普次子埃里克·特朗普担任首席战略官。
简单说：挖出来的币，全部塞进储备里，一枚都没卖。埃里克的原话是：“比特币从来不会走直线。我们的挖矿成本大约是市价的五折。”CEO则说：“我们相信比特币的长期复利增长将超越我们的资本成本。 ”
二、特朗普传媒：把BTC当“抵押品”借钱
同属特朗普家族的特朗普传媒（TMTG）走了另一条路。
8月2日，链上数据显示特朗普传媒将2628枚BTC（约1.65亿美元） 转入Crypto.com。公司澄清“没卖，只是托管转移”。但链上数据清清楚楚——BTC持仓已降至约4261枚。
4261枚这个数字，恰好等于公司在一季度财报中披露的、已质押给可转债的BTC数量。
市场普遍认为：特朗普传媒正在把比特币当抵押品借钱，而非长期持有。同一周，American Bitcoin在拼命囤，特朗普传媒在悄悄押。一家当儿子养，一家当工具用。
三、总结
美国创新基金会报告曾明确指出，Coherent和Lumentum等美国本土光模块供应商虽拥有具竞争力的技术，但生产规模仍不足以取代中国供应商。
同一个家族，同一个币价——American Bitcoin用挖矿现金流持续囤BTC，把账面亏损当持有成本；特朗普传媒把BTC当抵押品借现金，应对流动性需求。
American Bitcoin股价从峰值跌了95%，被迫1比15合股保纳斯达克资格——但市场仍给了5%的涨幅，因为“会计亏损是纸面的，8002枚BTC是真实的”。账面上的亏损只是会计处理的结果，公司真实资产——那些不断增长的比特币储备——才是市场真正看重的价值。Your analysis can be summarized like this:
ETH's biggest risk right now isn't a sharp crash—it's the widespread expectation that it's "next to pump."
Many investors believe ETH will automatically rally after BTC because that's what happened in previous cycles. But when a narrative becomes consensus, it often loses its edge.
Key points:
BTC has stronger near-term catalysts through continued institutional demand and spot ETF inflows.
ETH's bullish narratives—spot ETFs, tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), stablecoins, and ecosystem growth—are real, but they're already well known and largely priced into expectations.
ETF inflows are positive but not a guarantee of higher prices. They show steady allocation demand, but historically ETF flows often confirm existing trends rather than create new ones.
Price action matters more than the story. If ETH cannot break key resistance and force short sellers to cover, the market may remain range-bound despite positive fundamentals.
The biggest psychological risk is impatience. If BTC trades sideways and ETH fails to outperform, investors expecting an immediate "catch-up rally" may become frustrated, sell, or reduce their positions, creating additional selling pressure.
The takeaway is not that ETH is bearish, but that risk-reward may not justify aggressively chasing the price at current levels. Waiting for either:
1. a confirmed breakout with strong volume, or
2. a meaningful pullback to better support levels,
may offer a more favorable setup than buying solely because "ETH is due."
In short, the caution isn't about Ethereum's long-term fundamentals—it's about avoiding the assumption that a rally is inevitable simply because many people expect one.🦈 Smart money is quietly flowing back into the crypto market, while most retail investors remain anxious about short-term fluctuations.
📊 On August 5, the US spot crypto ETF released a key data:
📈 Net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs: $211.5 million
📈 Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $53.1 million
💰 Total net inflow: $264.6 million
This wave of buying is not driven by retail investor sentiment, but rather a clear signal that institutional funds continue to increase their positions amid macro uncertainty. Don't treat this level of net inflow as noise; it's most likely a systematic allocation of long-term funds.
🧠 Historical patterns deserve attention: periods of intense market volatility are often windows for long-term funds to build positions in batches, while short-term sentiment remains cautious or even panicked. Institutions take advantage of volatility to accumulate shares, while retail investors lose their way amid price fluctuations; this kind of fragmentation is common.
But is this $264.6 million the starting point of a larger trend, or is it merely selective bottom-fishing? The answer isn't in the single-day data, but in whether the price structure, trading volume, and ETF capital flow can resonate going forward.
🔎 Here are a few key observation points:
🟠 Can BTC construct consecutive rising lows during pullbacks and maintain a bullish structure?
🔵 As institutional demand recovers, has ETH's on-chain activity improved in tandem, forming fundamental support?
📊 Can net ETF inflows continue positively over the next few trading days, rather than just a pulse-like one-day trip?
⚖️ A reminder: a single day's data cannot define trends; sustainable institutional accumulation is the truly leading signal worth tracking. What should be done now is not to chase rises or cut losses, but to closely monitor capital flows and price confirmation.
⚠️ This article is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research and strictly manage risks.
#DailyOrbit瞄准镜的 12 倍光学镜片里，绿色的夜视荧光正把远处高地的热信号拉到眼前。真正的王牌狙击手从来不看花哨的硝烟，我们只盯气压、风速，以及掩体后那几道几乎不可察觉的筹码挪移痕迹。
意大最大金融巨头 Intesa Sanpaolo 在第二季度的动作，在普通人眼里是一份持仓变更，但在我的瞄准镜里，这是一场绝密且冷酷的夜间阵地转移。
他们把显眼制高点上的 IBIT 重仓，从 646,809 股一路清退到只剩 40,723 股，降幅高达 93.7%。老牌猎手都明白，当某个阵地聚集了全场所有的探照灯与弹雨，死守在那里除了沦为靶子毫无意义。撤走比特币的高位重炮，不等于认输，而是彻底抹去暴露在旷野上的热源痕迹，悄悄退回暗处。
紧接着，他们的枪口转向了草丛深处——对贝莱德质押型 ETH 现货 ETF 的持仓，从 116,200 股直接翻了近三倍，爆拉至 349,600 股。在长达数十天的隐蔽潜伏中，猎手最需要的是源源不断的养分。ETH 带有天然质押收益的特性，就像是在狙击掩体里架设了一套自给自足的水粮循环系统。他们放弃了盲目的火力扫射，选择扎根在一个能持续提供现金流血包的狙击点，用极低的心率消耗，耐心等待目标踩进射击框。
更绝的是他们在侧翼布下的防线。他们把 250 万股当量的 IBIT 看涨期权砍得只剩 1.8 万股，这意味着他们撕掉了盲目冲锋的爆破包；同时悄悄地在后方拉响了 50 万股当量的看跌期权。这不是看空战场，而是在退路和侧翼布下了重型防步兵跳雷。一旦风向突变、山谷里出现反向压制火力，这些绊雷会第一时间轰然炸开，为核心仓位的掩护撤退争取致命的几秒钟。
将视线略微抬高，美股联动标的 $XGOOGL 等科技巨头资金池的微弱震荡，正在重新塑造整个战场的空气湿度与弹道偏折率。这些科技权重与加密资产之间的资金潜流，就像是狙击前夕突然改变方向的山谷风，任何不把宏观风阻计算在内的扣动扳机，最终都会导致子弹偏离目标数米。
战场上最忌讳的就是频繁扣动扳机。意联银行这种级别的大资本，已经完成了掩体更换、子弹上膛和侧翼埋雷。
在没有出现完美盈亏比的死角之前，任何沉不住气的提前暴露，迎来的都将是精准的爆头打击。Something's definitely going on with $LDO ...
One wallet just started vacuuming up tokens from everywhere.
OKX.
Binance.
Bybit.
Bitget.
Over 700K $LDO ended up in the exact same address within just a few hours.
The funniest part?
Before withdrawing 176K from Bybit, they first sent a tiny 500 $LDO test transaction.
That's not random behavior.
That's someone making sure everything works before moving size.
When one wallet starts collecting from four exchanges at the same time... I pay attention.To start with the conclusion: SanDisk is currently not suitable for blindly buying long positions. Existing low-cost positions can retain some core holdings, but should appropriately reduce positions or move up the protection level; Those without positions are better suited to wait for the earnings report and price repricing before looking for entry opportunities.
SanDisk has experienced a significant rebound over the past few trading days, with the latest price entering the zone where previously trapped positions and short-term profit-taking positions may be concentrated in cash-out. After consecutive rises, the current potential upside for prices is not symmetrical to event risks. Therefore, even though medium- to long-term fundamentals are still supported by AI storage demand and improved NAND supply and demand, it is not advisable to chase gains solely through strong momentum in the short term.
It should be noted that SanDisk's financial report has not yet been released. The company will release its earnings after market hours on August 5 (U.S. time), so the current market is still trading earnings expectations rather than results. Since the market already holds high expectations for revenue growth, demand for enterprise-grade SSDs, NAND prices, and subsequent guidance, even if actual results slightly exceed consensus expectations, it may not be enough to further drive the stock price higher; If the company's guidance is not further raised, it may instead lead to a "positive news realization" pullback.
On the other hand, post-earnings pressure on SpaceX's stock price and the upcoming large-scale unlocking of restricted shares may disrupt the short-term risk appetite of highly valued tech stocks. However, the indirect impact on SanDisk's unlocking is more of a market sentiment and capital style, and it cannot be simply understood as a SpaceX decline that inevitably triggers a simultaneous decline in the semiconductor sector.
Therefore, a more reasonable strategy today is to avoid buying long positions after consecutive ralls. Some profitable positions can be kept to guard against the possibility of funds continuing to rally before the earnings report, but drawdown risk should be controlled at the same time. Even if those not holding positions are preparing to lighten their positions and test long positions, they should wait for a pullback to support and then recover, or wait for the earnings report to ramp up and stabilize the price, rather than directly buying in the resistance zone.
If SanDisk opens high but fails to hold the previous high, then drops below the opening price or the intraday average on high volume, it is important to be cautious about funds cashing out earnings expectations; Conversely, if the earnings report and guidance clearly exceed market expectations, and the stock price breaks through the resistance zone with increased volume and can hold the breakout level, then the current cautious outlook needs to be adjusted accordingly. $SNDK $SPCX #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable $AMD The earnings report beat expectations, but fell 8% in after-hours trading.
Revenue reached 11.5 billion, up 50%, with the data center business leading the pack—6.7 billion, more than doubling year-on-year and accounting for 58% of total revenue.
The Q3 guidance is around 13 billion yuan, slightly above the market average expectation, but not reaching the higher forecasts given by some institutions. The gross margin guidance is stuck at around 56%, not moving upward.
The market is unhappy for two reasons: your growth rate is fast enough, but expectations have already been set even higher; If gross margin hasn't increased, it means that although your Helios rack system has shipped products, it hasn't truly realized scale profits yet.
Earlier earnings reports from Microsoft $MSFT and Amazon $AMZN have shown the market solid evidence of "AI making money," which in turn has raised investors' expectations for AMD.
AMD fell 8% in after-hours trading, linked to chip stocks like Nvidia $NVDA and Broadcom. If AI hardware collectively weakens and the Nasdaq is pulled down, $BTC will also face short-term pressure. But there's no need to panic—the performance itself is not bad; the market is merely revaluation. After enduring the earnings season, repairs will be made.
#AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn?