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The spillover of war in the Middle East has nearly halted navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, directly triggering a cliff-like drop in Iraq's crude oil exports. According to data from the Ministry of Petroleum, exports totaled about 32.11 million barrels in May–June 2026, while in February before the war, it reached 99.87 million barrels in just February; Production at major southern oil fields plummeted by 80%, from 4.3 million barrels per day to about 900,000 barrels. The real issue isn't resources, but the corridor—Iraq's finances rely on crude oil exports for 90% of its revenue, and most of it is shipped out via Hormuz. After the de facto blockade of the strait, storage is in short supply, forcing forced force cuts at foreign oil fields; Even if the northern Kirkuk–Turkish Ceyhan pipeline starts diversion, its initial capacity is only 250,000 barrels per day, far from enough to fill the gap.
In the short term, global inventories have fallen to historic lows, and the peak consumption season in Q3 combined with restocking demand has driven oil prices and oil and gas stocks to $CL 📈 and $BZ📈. However, the IEA has lowered its global demand forecast for 2026 to a year-on-year decrease of 1 million barrels per day, marking the first annual contraction since 2020; After the medium- and long-term resumption of shipping across the strait and the release of idle capacity by OPEC+, supply and demand have returned to oversupply, causing the oil price center to face a pullback, reflecting institutions' long-term stance 📉 on oil and gas stocks. $BTC #停火48小时告吹, the US and Iran are negotiating simultaneously $BTC ## BTC 7/30 Pre-Market Overview — FOMC Decision Dropped, But Triple Pressure Remains
🔮 **FOMC Result**: 9-3 vote to keep rates unchanged, but three hawkish dissenters (demanding a 25bp hike) is the first since 2016. Wash's exact words: **"No soft inflation target, 2% is ironclad"**. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged past **5.20%**, Dow plunged 1100 points.
📊 **BTC Current Price**: Multiple sources cross-verified oscillating in the **$63,500-64,000** range. DiarioBitcoin reports $63,689, COINOTAG real-time $63,680. After FOMC announcement, briefly spiked to $64,500 → Wash hawkish remarks → retreated to $63,700. Basically unchanged, indicating the market had already priced in "no rate cut."
⛓️ **Three Mountains Pressing Down**:
**① Middle East Powder Keg** 🔥 Iran missile strike on US base, US-Saudi joint counterattack on Iraqi militias. Brent crude surged to **$90.74**, WTI up 7.6%. Oil price → inflation → rate hike expectations, this transmission chain blocks BTC’s upside imagination.
**② Wash Gives No Hope** 🏛️ His strategy is clear: no forward guidance, not afraid of market drops, only data-driven. September hike probability still 56%, December hike probability **81%**. Rate cuts? Not anytime soon.
**③ On-Chain Quietness** 🥶 Fear & Greed Index at **28** (fear), Coinbase premium negative indicating US funds are exiting. BTC spot volume dropped to the lowest since July 2023 — no one stepping in, no one dumping, pure stalemate.
📐 **Technicals**:
| Direction | Key Level | Logic |
|------|--------|------|
| Support | **$63,250-63,500** | SMA-30/50 crossover, break leads to $62,700 |
| Lifeline | **$62,700** | Yesterday’s low + 11-day minimum, break targets $60,000 |
| Resistance | **$64,500-65,000** | SMA-7/15 dense zone, failure to break means continued consolidation |
| Bull/Bear Divide | **$71,850** | SMA-200, far away |
💡 **My Judgment**:
BTC is now a "compressed spring" — FOMC no hike is good, but Wash’s hawkish stance + oil prices + geopolitical risks are three ropes binding it. Short term is **$63,000-65,000** range oscillation, whichever side breaks first will lead.
The bulls’ only good card: BTC dominance steadily rising at 58.65%, indicating funds are retreating from altcoins to safe haven — not a bull market signal, but at least shows whales haven’t given up on BTC.
⚠️ Key focus: Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, August CPI data. If oil prices keep surging + inflation rebounds, September hike probability won’t be 56% anymore, and $60,000 might not hold then.⚡ $LAB On-chain Insights: "Ruins Survival" After 99% Crashes
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📊 Market structure: From a hundredfold myth to nearing zero
$LAB is a multi-chain AI trading terminal token on BNB Smart Chain, which reached a historic high of $27.48 in June. However, July experienced a devastating crash—from $17.68 in three days to $1.05, breaking all support and currently hovering around $0.152. It has dropped over 99% from its all-time high, with a market cap of only about $49 million, ranking 433rd. This is a classic 'hundredfold coin reset to zero' scenario.
📍 Support Level (from near to far)
· First support: 0.15 — the market has previously considered this a target level
· Second support: 0.12-0.14 — the buffer zone after breaking below 0.15
· Strong support: 0.09-0.11—If 0.15 falls, bears will move to the next target
· Ultimate defense: 0.025 — presale cost price, the psychological bottom line for early participants
🚀 Pressure level (from near to far)
· First resistance: 0.21-0.25—the most pressing resistance zone at present
· Second pressure: 0.43-0.45—only a recovery can see hope for stabilization
· Strong resistance: 0.90-1.00—mid-July consolidation zone, heavy trapped positions
· Core resistance: 1.07-1.20 — early July low area; returning here would mean a tenfold increase
🐋 On-chain market player movements: Internal chip clearing continues
On-chain investigator ZachXBT accused insiders of controlling over 95% of the supply and manipulating prices as early as May. In July, solid evidence emerged—a wallet initially funded by the team held over 196 million LAB, transferred 18.4 million tokens to DEXs within 48 hours, selling them in concentrated sales, pushing the price from $1.20 to $0.56, with 81.5 million coins still waiting to be dumped. Additionally, whales transferred 18.5 million LAB (worth $18.69 million) to Aster within two days, causing prices to plummet 53%.
The token structure is extremely distorted: a total supply of 1 billion tokens, currently only about 309 million (30.9%) are in circulation, with 70.8% marked as "untracked"—meaning these tokens could be unlocked and enter the market at any time. Starting July 14, 16.23 million tokens will be unlocked each month, continuing until December. On August 14, another 282 million tokens will be unlocked to their recipients.
📉 Contracts and liquidity signals: No buy orders were accepted
The 24-hour trading volume was $280 million, 5.7 times market cap—the turnover rate was abnormally high, but the price was still falling. On-chain data shows that "shipments have never stopped." Liquidity depth is extremely poor; even a small large sell can trigger a sharp drop.
✅ Positive factors
· Moonpay fiat channel launched: On July 23, debit cards will be activated to directly purchase LAB
· Apple Pay/Google Pay coming soon: lowering the entry barrier for new users
· Product real: Multi-chain trading terminal supports ETH, SOL, BNB Chain, AI research engine, with fees of only 0.5%
· Institutions have endorsed 14 institutions including OKX Ventures, KuCoin Ventures, and Animoca Brands to participate in the $5 million financing
⚠️ Bearish factors
· Monthly continuous unlocks: 16.23 million tokens/month through December, with an additional 282 million tokens unlocked on August 14
· The team-linked wallet still holds 81.5 million tokens pending release: the cost is close to zero
· 70.8% of supply is "untracked": it could enter the market at any time
· Founder credibility collapsed: Founder Vova Sadkov's previous project Eesee was accused of "halting development and leaving investors stranded."
· ZachXBT Solid Manipulation: Insiders control over 95% of the supply
· Only 30.9% of outstanding share: FDV is severely inflated, and genuine buying support is extremely weak
🎯 Summary
$LAB is currently in the "surviving the ruins" phase. Falling from $27 to $0.15—this is not a correction, but a destruction of value. 0.15-0.21 forms an extremely narrow trading range—if positive factors like Moonpay bring real buying, the rebound target is 0.43-0.45; if team-linked wallets continue to sell or a massive unlock on August 14 triggers a new round of market crushes, 0.12, 0.09, and even 0.025 will become bullseye for bears in turn.
The greatest sorrow is that early participants, with a presale cost of only $0.025, still posted several times their book profit despite a 99% crash. And you and I bought the bottom at $0.15, which might only be a fraction of others' profits. This is not investment, but a way to get a little from the fire. Watch more, move less; let on-chain data tell you when "selling pressure dries up" before talking about bottom-fishing. #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations 说一下美股什么时候止跌
储存到底还能抄底不？
昨天的尾盘开始放量下跌，从消息面看是通胀加剧，又开始讲加息预期，实际上还是美股3-6月的获利和AI投入的不确定性，市场在面对不确定性的时候就会无脑卖出。
而目前看并没有止跌的趋势，纳斯达克跌多涨少，主要靠七姐妹支撑，原来的逻辑是硬科技跌，软件涨，英伟达涨，苹果涨，谷歌涨，现在明显卖出硬科技后，资金也放弃七姐妹了
这种情况什么时候好转，这种好转的最终形态应该是英伟达开始止跌，走稳，甚至走出强趋势，这种既需要英伟达有炸裂的财报以外还需要技术突破和AI新一轮的缺口，英伟达上涨，半导体才会回暖，储存才会止跌反弹，美股才会赢来反弹。
而现在，并不需要更多关注每个人的建议，我刚买美股的时候，买完就疫情了，当时看完全站岗了山顶，事后去看，那个地方只是一个小坑
做现货和定投的好处就是能熬的住，美股的波动大，长期看，$QQQ 仍然平均收益率20%，我并不认为AI就此一蹶不振，也不认为现在会买到纳斯达克百年最高点。
市场确实需要降温，降温后，理性的自己才能买到谷歌，才能买到$SMH ，当时买入持有的价格也不是为了涨一点就卖，跌一点就受不了。
太多了想在美股上一夜暴富了，可巴菲特早就说过，在美股上投机猜涨跌无异于自杀，我还是坚定的看好AI科技股，或许过几年回头看，现在是绝对的好机会呢😊$SNDK #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 Robinhood 2026年Q2交出了一份结构很不一样的数据。
总交易收入：7.76亿美元，同比增长44%
拆开看三大交易板块：
事件合约（预测市场）收入：1.56亿美元
股票交易收入：1.29亿美元
Crypto交易收入：1亿美元，同比下降38%
预测市场首次超过Crypto和股票，成为最大的交易收入来源。
整体财务数据：
总净收入：13.1亿美元，同比增长32%
净利润：5.73亿美元，同比增长48%
Crypto这条线：
名义交易量400亿美元，含Bitstamp贡献的220亿美元。收入同比跌38%，但比市场悲观预期（部分分析师看跌47-48%）要好一些。
预测市场怎么起来的？
Robinhood 2024年10月才进预测市场，2026年3月推出预测市场中心，6月上线CFTC持牌交易所Rothera。刚满一年，收入已经跑到最前面。
怎么看这份财报：
加密交易在降温，Robinhood也没逃过。但靠预测市场+期权+股票多线开花，把加密的下滑扛了过去，收入、利润双双大增。
“不再只靠加密故事”——这个季度算是被财报验证了。
$hood [2026-07-30] 🟡 Wait and see | BTC rates return from the orange zone to equilibrium, ETH rises against the trend. Today's judgment: BTC rate deviation sharply dropped from +0.9σ to -0.13σ, and yesterday's bullish recovery quickly faded; ETH's fee rate rose against the trend to +0.78σ, close to the orange zone, but the price fell by -0.93%. Rising fees and falling prices = bulls holding on; OP entered the orange zone (+0.84σ) but prices fell in tandem, warning of a bullish trap. The market volume increased by +19.76%, but OI fell by -1.23%, indicating ongoing deleveraging. Key findings (3 items) 1. BTC sharply retreated from the orange zone back to equilibrium; yesterday's recovery was due to "inflated" BTC rate deviations from +0.9σ (orange zone) to -0.13σ (yellow zone center), completing a "overheated → equilibrium" return within 24 hours. CoinGlass verified: OI in 24 hours was only +0.03%, almost flat. The 'inflated fat' signal of yesterday's rate rise but OI not following was realized today, and bulls have no intention of continuing to increase their positions. 2. ETH fees rose against the trend to +0.78σ, but the price fell by -0.93%. Bulls held firm, pushing ETH's rate from +0.1σ to +0.78σ, close to the orange zone, but the price actually fell by -0.93%. CoinGlass OI 24h -4.02%, futures trading volume only +4.14%, with rates rising, prices falling, and OI falling—a typical exampleGeopolitical risks have resurfaced, with WTI jumping directly by 7% to around $85. Trump's side threatened a tough response to Iran's actions, and the market immediately reacted.
On Wednesday, the US stock market returned to a downward trend, with the S&P dropped 1.5% and the Nasdaq 100 dropping 2.1%. The semiconductor brothers are all under pressure, $NVDA $MU $AMD none of these escaped.
Honestly, this combination of geopolitical tensions and soaring oil prices has never been good news for the stock market. Historically, every time the Middle East situation heats up and energy costs rise, the bulls in the stock market have to think twice. At this point, the liquidity environment is already not very relaxed, and with another incident, risk appetite will naturally shrink.
If oil prices continue to hover at this level or rise, inflation expectations will need to be reassessed. The Federal Reserve had already been on the look-and-see side, and now they are even more reluctant to act rashly. For seasoned commodity traders, what matters at this time is not a single day's rise or fall, but sustainability and policy responses. Short-term volatility will certainly increase, but the real direction will depend on subsequent developments and the outcome of the game among all parties.
The sharp drop in semiconductors is partly due to the overall market drag, and partly because the market is re-examining the high valuations of tech stocks. As soon as geopolitical risks arise, funds start seeking safe havens, with high-beta tech stocks bearing the brunt of the blow. #FedSoonToAnnounce Interest Rate Decision.Microsoft and Meta released their earnings reports on the same day; one rose over 7% in after-hours trading, the other fell about 10%, and the market issued sharply different judgments. On the surface, it's all about AI CAPEX, but in reality, it's an A/B test of the market's effectiveness — the conclusion is clear: the market does not dislike CAPEX, but rather dislikes CAPEX without a clear path to returns. 📊 Three Key Comparisons I. Cloud Business Growth Rate · Microsoft: Azure cloud business grew 43% year-over-year, next quarter guidance further accelerated to about 45%, AI directly driving cloud revenue growth of about 12 percentage points · Meta: Advertising revenue up 27% year-over-year, solid performance, but lacks a growth narrative of the same magnitude to match the massive CAPEX 2. CAPEX guidance · Microsoft: CAPEX for fiscal year 2027 will be about $175 billion (below the previous forecast of $190 billion), and has stated it will maintain positive FCF · Meta: Annual CAPEX floor raised from $125 billion to $130 billion, cap maintained at $145 billion, spending pace not slowing down 3. FCF Outlook · Microsoft: Clearly committed to maintaining positive free cash flow in fiscal year 2027; Q2 FCF still stands at $19.6 billion · Meta: Q2 free cash flow plunges 91% to $784 million, hitting a nearly four-year low; CAPEX nearly swallows all operating cash flow. Microsoft's strong cloud revenue growth and stable FCF expectations prove that massive investments are turning into visible returns. Meta, on the other hand, is exposed$XMU 特朗普放话要狠狠打击伊朗，首先会抬升中东地缘紧张情绪，国际油价大概率应声走高。油价上涨会直接加大美国通胀反弹的压力，市场此前押注的美联储降息节奏势必被打乱，甚至可能重新燃起加息担忧。资金风险偏好会随之快速回落，美股高估值的科技成长股首当其冲承压。整体来看，地缘不确定性升级会给美股带来明显抛压，短期市场波动会显著放大，整体走势明确偏空。
#美联储即将公布利率决议 🔥The Fed didn’t raise rates, so ETH is stable? The real thunder last night might be hidden until September!
Last night the Fed announced: it will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%.
At first glance, this is good news—at least there was no sudden rate hike to crash the market.
But what’s really worth noting is that this decision only received 9 votes in favor, while 3 members directly demanded a 25 basis point hike. The Fed also emphasized that current inflation remains above the 2% target, and inflation risks from rising energy prices still exist.
Translated into words retail investors can understand:
"They didn’t fire this time, but the Fed has already taken out the gun."
After the announcement, the dollar and 2-year Treasury yields fell, indicating the market first priced in the "no immediate rate hike" good news; but 10-year Treasury yields actually rose, reflecting ongoing concerns about long-term inflation. Expectations for a rate hike in September have not disappeared.
For ETH, no rate hike in the short term can ease liquidity pressure and provide a window for price rebound; but this does not mean a new bull market has started.
Because as long as oil prices, inflation, and Treasury yields continue to rise, the market will reprice the "September rate hike," and ETH, as a high-volatility risk asset, is often the first to be impacted.
So the core of last night’s meeting is not a "major positive," but:
Short-term bearish factors have not materialized, and medium-term risks continue to be pushed forward.
What retail investors need to guard against now is emotionally chasing the rally after seeing the news. What really determines ETH’s next move are upcoming inflation data, energy prices, Treasury yields, and the September Fed meeting.
Do you think this is ETH gathering strength before a breakout, or another bull trap created by the main players using the "no rate hike" news? 👇
The above is only personal market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. #美联储即将公布利率决议 昨晚微软财报电话会上透露了几个数字，挺有意思。 Azure的需求还是老样子不够卖。产能追不上客户要货的速度，这是微软云业务这几年的常态。新砸下去的数据中心，一个季度内就能把钱赚回来，这话是说给投资人听的，毕竟过去一年微软在AI基础设施上花得太凶了。 但真正让我留意的数据是另外一组：2026财年，微软Cloud业务总收入2144亿美元，光是Azure就破了1000亿美元大关。这里有个反直觉的细节，接近九成的云收入，来自OpenAI、Anthropic这些头部AI公司之外的普通企业客户。 这和很多人想象的完全不同。$MSFT 过去两年，大众对微软AI业务的印象，几乎被ChatGPT和OpenAI完全占据。加上微软和OpenAI那层说不清道不明的关系，外界天然会认为Azure的增长引擎就是这些大模型明星公司。可事实恰恰相反，真正掏钱买单的主力，是那些你可能没怎么听过的传统企业，制造业、零售业、金融业，它们用Azure跑自己的AI应用，不显眼，但量极大。 这个局面其实和今年4月发生的一件事有关，微软和OpenAI那个维持多年的独家联盟正式解绑了。现在OpenAI可以把模型部署到AWS，微软也#USIranCeasefireBreaks
When I pick up a trowel to clear the black carbonized layer in the fourth stratum of the Mesopotamian basin, I never believe in any "forty-eight-hour ceasefire agreement" written on a wet clay tablet.
From the stratigraphic perspective of archaeology, every resurgence of conflict in the Mesopotamian plain and the Persian Gulf choke point is just an accumulation of ashes repeated over three thousand years on this land. When the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's ballistic missiles streak across the Middle Eastern night sky, the US-led coalition airstrikes targets inside Iraq, and WTI crude oil sharply rebounds in response, I feel as if I am looking at a clay tablet scorched again by the wars of the Achaemenid Empire. The "fifty-fifty" control proposal for the Strait of Hormuz put forward by Oman was decisively rejected by Tehran—this obsession with absolute control over the waters mirrors the ancient Persian Empire's hegemonic logic of treating the Persian Gulf as an inland sea. The alternation of bull and bear markets has its historical rhythm; history does not simply repeat itself, but it always rhymes.
What is intriguing is that this intense tectonic pressure instantly transmits into the strata symbolizing modern digital wealth, especially the abnormal fluctuations of the US stock token $XORCL.
To many who only look at real-time candlesticks, $XORCL might just be an ordinary tech stock token. But to those of us accustomed to unearthing the rise and fall of empires from ancient city ruins, Oracle has long ceased to be merely a commercial software giant; it is the "cloud fortress" of modern imperial defense and intelligence architecture. From the Pentagon’s massive cloud contracts to the automated computational support of critical energy facilities in the Middle East, its underlying code is like a cornerstone embedded in the modern military defense system.
When war clouds gather over the strait and energy facilities are attacked, geopolitical risk aversion and the anticipated demand for military-industrial intelligence computing power instantly intertwine. The market’s revaluation of $XORCL is essentially a bet on the digital infrastructure of modern empires. The ancient Roman Empire consolidated its provinces through vast road networks and border fortresses, while today’s global hegemony entrusts its most critical military data and defense coordination to cloud computing networks. When conflicts escalate, the strait is blocked, and traditional supply chains face paralysis, the asset controlling the empire’s core information computing lifeline naturally becomes hard currency sought by capital in the digital strata.
Sassanian Persian silver coins sleeping in museum display cases are engraved with fire altars and guards; today, the $XORCL equity certificates distributed on the blockchain record the capital premium of modern tech giants in times of war. Carbon-14 dating can determine the exact age of a destroyed ancient city, but it cannot measure the cyclical nature of humanity caught between fear and lust for power.
The waves of the strait remain as viscous as oil, and the ashes deep in the strata have yet to cool. He just glanced at the board. Oil prices surged 8%, the Dow Jones fell 2%, semiconductors plunged 5%+, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a 2007 high. Global assets are shaking, and Wall Street is in chaos.
What about BTC? The amplitude is 0.27%, and at 63,800, the horizontal line looks like a straight line.
When panic outside reached its peak, BTC actually stopped moving—I know this global panic vs. BTC sideways divergence. Last year's Q4 was the same scene; everyone remembers what happened afterward. KDJ's J value has dropped to 8.59, with a buying depth of 79%. Cutting losses at this spot? I think the chance of losing is higher than making a profit.
$BTC $ETH $SOLThe demand for AI infrastructure construction has increased market risk appetite, driving capital to concentrate on related hardware. $SAMSUNG Q2 net profit reached 71.3 trillion KRW, exceeding expectations, with the chip division contributing 89.2 trillion KRW in operating profit, of which about 3.1 trillion KRW was contributed by depreciation. If the supply and demand tightening of server-side storage chips continues, macro funds will maintain a bullish allocation to AI chain positions. If demand for consumer electronics such as phones and PCs slows more than expected, or if exchange rate earnings reverse, chip profit growth will be suppressed.
#HYPE遭大额解押减持, a 10% drop in the week #银行业联名施压, and the terms of CLARITY's stablecoin may change againOn the morning of July 30, the Korean stock market opened with some respect, and the KOSPI index briefly fluttered positively. But the good times didn't last long; soon after, the market turned downward, and by the time of writing, the drop had exceeded 1.2%. This is already the third time this month that this kind of "smiling at the open, closing with MMP" scenario has occurred. Specifically for individual stocks, SK Hynix fell the hardest, nearly 5%. Samsung Electronics' hard-won 4% gain was all wiped out. Yesterday, KOSPI just experienced a sharp drop, with a drop of over 12% at one point. Today's trend doesn't look like a rebound, but rather a continuation of yesterday's panic. Anyone familiar with the Korean stock market knows that this market is basically a "Errenzhuan" between Samsung and SK Hynix. These two semiconductor giants carry too much weight in the index; whenever they move, the entire market shakes three times along with them. Since July, these two stocks have seen daily gains or losses of over 5% as commonplace, directly becoming market sentiment amplifiers. $SKHYNIX The key issue is that this "shift from rise to fall" pattern repeatedly reveals a harsh fact: market concerns about the memory chip cycle have already outweighed all short-term positive news. Today, Samsung Electronics rose as much as 4%, which should be a good sign, but what happened? This small gain was instantly swallowed by the selling pressure. What does this indicate? This shows that no one cares about this small rebound right now; at the slightest disturbance, everyone rushes away, and the buying pressure is simply too weak. After yesterday's epic crash, today's session...Microsoft up 6.6%, Meta down 6.7%: Two ways to spend the same money
Last night, Microsoft and Meta both released earnings reports; after hours, one rose 6.6%, the other fell 6.7%.
The trends were completely opposite, but the market was actually asking the same question: Money has been poured into AI, when will it pay off?
Microsoft’s earnings answered this question.
Microsoft: Money spent, invoices returned
This quarter’s revenue was $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; net profit was $35.77 billion, up 31%. But what really impressed the market wasn’t the big numbers, it was Azure’s 43% year-over-year growth beating expectations and accelerating from last quarter’s 40%.
Capital expenditure for the quarter was $41 billion, a figure that would normally draw criticism. But this time no one complained, because the investment has turned into revenue: Copilot paid seats exceeded 30 million, and commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO) reached $678 billion, up 84% year-over-year.
This last figure deserves extra emphasis. An RPO of $678 billion means enterprise customers are lining up to sign contracts, and Microsoft is holding a large amount of unrecognized revenue. In other words, Microsoft’s current problem isn’t insufficient demand, but insufficient capacity. This is a completely different issue from other companies burning cash on AI.
The logic is straightforward: invest in GPUs, build data centers, expand Azure capacity, then sell computing power through cloud services and Copilot. As long as Azure’s growth doesn’t slow, the market is willing to tolerate this spending.
However, profits need to be examined separately. This quarter includes $3.2 billion in Anthropic investment gains; excluding that, adjusted EPS was $4.74, still beating expectations, but operational growth isn’t as impressive as the GAAP 31%. Incidentally, Microsoft is both partnering with OpenAI and investing in Anthropic, and the money bet on both fronts is already generating book returns—this spending is much smarter than some companies’ past cash burns on the metaverse.
Meta: Not unprofitable, but earnings can’t keep up with spending
Meta’s problem is different. Revenue was $60.8 billion, up 28%; ad impressions rose 14%, and ad prices increased 12%, so the core business is still solid.
The ugly side is on the other end: total expenses rose 55%, capital expenditure was $31.08 billion, and free cash flow dropped to $784 million, down 91% year-over-year.
The 6.7% drop after hours reflects this.
The 14% net profit decline includes $2.4 billion in litigation fees and $1.18 billion in layoff costs; excluding these, operating profit is actually growing. So this report can’t be read as a deterioration in the ad business.
What the market fears is looking ahead: 2026 capital expenditure guidance is $130-145 billion, with total expenses of $165-169 billion. In other words, cash flow pressure isn’t just a one-quarter issue, but a problem for the next year or two.
The difference is: one is starting to collect rent, the other is still building the building.
Microsoft and Meta are both building AI infrastructure, but at completely different stages.
Microsoft can directly sell computing power to Azure customers, charge Copilot monthly, and distribute through an existing enterprise customer system. The monetization path is closed-loop.
Meta still relies on advertising revenue, then funnels cash into models, data centers, AI assistants, and glasses. AI has indeed improved ad recommendation efficiency and user engagement, but there’s no clear correlation between these gains and the $30+ billion quarterly spending. The market can’t price what it can’t see, so it just punishes the stock.
One often overlooked point: Zuckerberg has absolute voting control and doesn’t have to bow to quarterly earnings. This means Meta’s heavy investment will last longer than the market expects. Buying Meta is essentially buying Zuckerberg’s patience and vision. He lost a bet on the metaverse in 2022 but later saved the stock price through efficiency gains. This time’s script is similar, just with stakes several times higher.
Microsoft’s premium is certainty: high Azure growth, scaled Copilot billing, orders lined up for the next generation. But certainty comes at a cost—the valuation is packed with expectations, and if Azure growth slows or capital expenditure rises, the valuation will be harshly punished. A well-known good company has very little margin for error.
Meta is the opposite: the ad base is solid, this drop has released valuation pressure, but the market needs to see stabilized cash flow and clear revenue sources from AI investments before it’s willing to reprice. Until then, every earnings report risks a hit from expense guidance.
So Microsoft’s rise isn’t because the market likes it spending money; Meta’s fall isn’t because the market rejects AI.
The difference in one sentence: Microsoft is already collecting rent from AI, Meta is still using ads to fund AI.
My own inclination: for stability and mid-to-long term, Microsoft’s logic is much smoother; for those who can tolerate volatility and believe Zuckerberg can turn AI into ad efficiency and new hardware revenue, this drop is actually a good observation point—watch cash flow, not stock price.
Last earnings season, the market was counting who bought how many GPUs; this round, it’s about who first turns investment into free cash flow. Yesterday’s rise and fall was the first ballot cast at this watershed.
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 没有点阵图、没有锚定信号、没有惯例可循——7月30日，沃什让市场重回“猜谜时代”
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格林斯潘有句名言：
“如果你听懂了我说了什么，那我一定说得很清楚。”
这位美联储历史上最擅长打太极的主席，用刻意的模糊统治了华尔街近20年。
后来，伯南克来了。
他发明了“前瞻指引”——美联储提前告诉你，未来利率会怎么走。
再后来，耶伦、鲍威尔，一代代美联储主席把这个工具越做越细。点阵图、季度经济预测、会后声明里的每一个措辞变化——市场被喂成了巨婴，等着美联储投喂下一口预期。
然后，沃什来了。
他亲手把这张桌子掀了。
今年5月，凯文·沃什宣誓就任美联储第17任主席。
6月第一次FOMC会议，他的“首秀”扔了三颗炸弹：
第一，政策声明砍掉一半，只有130个单词，创2007年以来最短。
第二，删除所有前瞻指引——不再暗示利率下一步是上是下。
第三，不提交自己的点阵图预测。
伯南克以来用了十几年的“透明牌”，被沃什一把撕了。
他在参议院听证会上说得直白：“与我的许多前任和现任同事不同，我不相信前瞻指引。我不认为我应该提前告诉你未来的决定可能会是什么。”
翻译：别问了，到时候你就知道了。
现在，7月30日凌晨2点，沃什将主持任内第二次FOMC会议，也是第一次真正意义上的“压力测试”。
市场现在什么状态？
CME FedWatch显示：维持利率不变概率63.7%，加息25个基点概率36.3%。
两周前，加息概率只有13%。
油价破百、美伊冲突升级、通胀担忧重燃——短短两周，加息概率翻了三倍。
一家机构说按兵不动，另一家说加息。华尔街在吵，经济学家在吵，连美联储内部都在吵。
达拉斯联储主席洛根和克利夫兰联储主席哈马克已经公开呼吁加息。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯说要等等看。
但最大的问题是——沃什自己，一句话都不说。
这就是“猜谜时代”的玩法。
以前，你可以看点阵图——18个官员在纸上画点，中位数告诉你今年加几次息。
以前，你可以看声明措辞——“耐心”、“一段时间”、“数据依赖”——每一个词都是信号。
以前，你可以听美联储官员讲话——鹰派鸽派轮番上阵，你总能拼出一个方向。
现在，全没了。
点阵图？沃什不画了。
前瞻指引？删了。
官员讲话？沃什主张减少频率。
你只剩下一份130个单词的声明，和一场新闻发布会。
那怎么办？
新框架下，解读指南只有三条：
第一，别猜加几次息，猜措辞的温度。
声明里有没有新增“通胀上行风险”的表述？有没有把9月定性为“live meeting”（一切选项都在桌面上）？
一个字的变化，比一整个点阵图都重要。
第二，新闻发布会的权重，空前提升。
沃什的即兴回答，可能比声明本身更关键。
他选择强调什么——是消费者信心下滑（鸽派），还是油价反弹（鹰派）？
他往哪边偏，方向就在哪边。
第三，数反对票。
本次会议不更新点阵图，市场的核心关注点全在投票分歧上。
高盛预计至少一位委员投反对票。法国外贸银行预测洛根“几乎确定会投反对票”。
1票反对 vs 2票反对，意义完全不同。
反对票超过两张，就是极强的鹰派信号。
Bianco Research的总裁说了一句话，值得所有交易者刻在脑子里：
“没有前瞻指引，意味着我们将频繁看到20%、30%、40%的概率分布。市场正在向这种新的思维方式过渡。”
翻译一下：以前你是抄答案，现在你得自己解题。
美联储不再给你画路线图了。
每一场会议都是一场“盲盒” ——拆开之前，没人知道里面是什么。
说句扎心的：
沃什不是在惩罚市场，他是在“戒毒”。
过去十几年，市场对前瞻指引上瘾了。没有美联储的暗示，就不会自己做决策。
沃什要做的，就是强制断奶。
他在6月辛特拉论坛上定调：美联储将不再提供利率前瞻指引，转而完全依赖最新经济数据进行逐次会议决策。
美联储从“剧透模式”切换到了“直播模式” 。
7月30日凌晨2点，答案揭晓。
但比答案更重要的，是沃什怎么给出这个答案。
是鹰派按兵不动，还是意外加息？
声明措辞是冷是热？
发布会上他往哪边站？
反对票有几张？
这些问题，每一个都比“加不加息”本身更重要。
因为它们在定义一个新的游戏规则。
而在这个新规则下——猜对了，是暴利。猜错了，是暴亏。
没有中间地带。
$BTC $ETH $XAU Breaking news, SpaceX secured a $1.6 billion contract with the U.S. Space Force to use Falcon 9 to carry out 18 military satellite launch missions.
These satellites are said to be used for detection, continuous tracking, and providing target data to combat systems.
If the contract amount is accurate, the average value per task is about $88.9 million.
Moreover, SpaceX has previously secured a $4.16 billion contract for a space-based target tracking system and a $2.29 billion military space data network contract. It is transforming from a simple rocket carrier into a defense contractor that handles satellite manufacturing, target awareness, military data transmission, and orbital launch across the entire chain.
$SPCX Niu Bei!⚡ $DOGE 链上洞察：0.07美元的"窒息区"
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📊 盘面结构：极度压缩，暴风雨前夜
DOGE当前处于约0.0706附近，24小时波动区间极为狭窄。价格低于50日均线约12%，距200日均线更是接近30%。币安现货日成交量约3190万美元，远未达到引发方向性突破所需的量级。布林带%B读数仅0.24，价格紧贴下轨运行。这种程度的压缩几乎总会在48至72小时内迎来波动性扩大——市场正站在方向选择的悬崖边。
📍 支撑位（由近至远）
· 第一支撑：0.070-0.071——短线最受关注的支撑带，也是近期震荡箱体下沿
· 第二支撑：0.068-0.069——跌破0.07后的缓冲区域
· 强支撑：0.065——多头最后的防线，失守将打开更大下行空间
· 极限支撑：0.058-0.060——2023-2024年历史支撑区，若触及将面临严峻考验
🚀 压力位（由近至远）
· 第一压力：0.073-0.074——布林中轨与20日EMA双重压制
· 第二压力：0.075-0.076——空头清算密集启动区
· 强压力：0.078-0.081——350亿枚DOGE集中成交区，链上最大阻力带
· 核心阻力：0.085-0.09——收复才能改变中期空头格局
· 中期天花板：0.103-0.105——200日均线所在，突破需要巨量买盘
🐋 链上庄家动向：分歧白热化
巨鲸行为高度分化。一方面，大户在0.07附近通过Robinhood买入约2亿枚$DOGE ，价值1400万美元；另一巨鲸单日转移9亿枚DOGE（价值6300万美元），被解读为积累或仓位调整。最震撼的是7月初一笔近40亿枚DOGE从币安转出至未知钱包，价值约3亿美元，系2026年以来最大单笔链上转账之一——大额资金撤离交易所通常被视为长线持仓信号。
但期货市场与现货出现严重背离。币安期货顶级交易者多空比高达3.41（77.3%的"聪明钱"持多头），散户多头也达72.9%。未平仓合约下降1.92%而价格几乎未动，说明现有多头保持静态而非加仓。资金费率0.0093%基本为中性——多头拥挤但缺乏增量资金支撑，典型的多头陷阱预警信号。
✅ 利好因素
· 十年趋势线支撑：DOGE正测试一条自2017年以来的长期上升趋势线，历史上每次触及后都伴随大幅反弹
· 巨鲸持续吸筹：大户在市场疲软时持续增持，视当前价位为积累区
· 现货ETF首次净流入：6月中旬以来首次出现方向性转变
· 美伊冲突暂停：风险偏好回归，DOGE成Top20唯一成交量跳涨90%的标的
· House of Doge Inc.上市：狗狗币基金会企业分支以"HODO"为代码在纳斯达克上市
· 技术指标闪现买入信号：周线TD Sequential闪现多个连续买入信号
⚠️ 利空因素
· DOGE ETF连续五周零流入：机构资金保持观望
· 均线全面空头排列：50日和200日均线均在下行
· 连续65日运行于20日均线下方：创历史最长纪录，短线趋势极弱
· 距历史高点跌超90%：上方套牢盘如山
· 无限供应缺乏稀缺性：通胀年增3.3%，基本面承压
· 宏观流动性不宽松：美联储紧缩预期压制风险资产
🎯 总结
$DOGE 正站在0.07这一"窒息区"。多头拥有十年趋势线支撑和巨鲸吸筹两大底牌，但期货市场极度拥挤的多头仓位和持续萎缩的机构需求构成致命隐患——"谁还能继续买入"是当前最棘手的问题。0.07不破则底部结构尚在，反弹目标0.078-0.081；一旦失守，0.065和0.058将依次成为空头靶心。布林带极度压缩意味着方向选择迫在眉睫，方向取决于巨鲸是继续积累还是转向抛售，以及宏观情绪能否提供催化。#美联储即将公布利率决议 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 #停火48小时告吹，美伊边打边谈 Today, global financial markets experienced a major sell-off, with U.S. stocks collapsing collectively at the close. The Dow Jones plunged over 1,150 points in a single day, a decline of 2.19%, marking its largest single-day drop in nearly 15 months. Both the Nasdaq and S&P closed sharply higher. This round of sharp declines in US stocks is not a negative news for individual stocks, but rather a resonance of triple negative factors: soaring US Treasury yields + soaring oil prices + hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, directly triggering collective panic among global risk assets and simultaneously putting pressure and volatility in the crypto market. The main trigger for this sharp drop was the spread of fear of U.S. Treasury bonds, with the 30-year Treasury yield soaring to a nearly 20-year high, prompting the market to fully price in "sustained high interest rates for the long term." Coupled with international crude oil prices surging over 7%, expectations of a rebound in inflation have resurfaced, completely shattering market hopes of rate cuts this year. In a high interest rate environment, growth technology and highly volatile assets are facing concentrated valuation squeezes, with US semiconductor and AI hardware sectors leading the decline, directly weakening the AI and storage sectors in the crypto world. The crypto market today fully followed peripheral sentiment. $BTC Bitcoin held the 64,000 level but struggled to rise, showing an overall pattern of the broader market holding back while smaller caps were selling off. More than $700 million in leverage on the chain was liquidated within 24 hours, with many leveraged positions liquidated in batches, and market speculative sentiment cooled rapidly. The market has entered a typical global synchronized deleveraging cycle, with US stocks unstable and no independent bull market in the crypto world. All short-term rebounds are defined as technical corrections, with a trend trend not yet reached. At this stage, the core of operations is mainly defensive, avoiding high-level themes and high-volatility knockoffs, and patiently waiting for external market sentiment to stabilize.After Robinhood released its Q2 2026 results on July 29, the most common misunderstanding is that record-high total revenue does not mean every business line is growing in the same direction.
Let's first look at the confirmed data. The company's financial report shows that total net revenue for the quarter ending June 30 was $1.308 billion, up 32% year-on-year; Trading revenue was $776 million. After the split, event contract revenue was $156 million, up more than tenfold year-on-year; options income was $342 million, up 29%; stock income was $129 million, up 95%; Cryptocurrency revenue was $100 million, down 38% year-over-year. The company also disclosed that the nominal trading volume for crypto stands at $40 billion, with Robinhood App accounting for $18 billion and Bitstamp accounting for $22 billion. CoinDesk's independent report also confirmed the year-over-year decline in crypto revenue.
What is the mechanism behind this data?
The platform's "transaction revenue" is not a unified demand pool. Different products have different user scenarios, available contracts and regional rules, and different monetization methods. The rapid growth of event contracts can boost total trading revenue, but it does not prove that crypto trading demand is also strengthening in tandem; Conversely, a decline in crypto revenue cannot alone represent a contraction of the platform's overall business.
Those who are first affected are those observing the platform's operational quality: revenue, transaction volume, and product lines should be viewed separately, rather than replacing the entire business with a single total. For the industry, this also signals that competition among integrated financial platforms is shifting from a single asset class to a multi-product portfolio and distribution capability.
What remains to be confirmed is: how much of the growth in each product line comes from user retention, product coverage, or short-term event-driven growth; The financial report does not rely solely on these figures to provide a causal breakdown.
The next verifiable signals include crypto trading volume in subsequent quarters, Bitstamp's contribution, whether event contract revenue is sustained, and the regional availability of different products.
Would you prioritize "revenue," "transaction volume," or "active users and retention" to judge whether a platform's business is truly expanding?Microsoft EPS growth of 32% needs to be broken down into two layers: Anthropic earnings, OpenAI metrics, and core business profit
GAAP diluted EPS is $4.81, up 32% year-over-year, with net income of $35.766 billion, up 31% year-over-year; operating profit grew 18% in the same period. The net income growth rate is significantly higher than operating profit, mainly due to non-operating investment income and discrete items listed by the company. These earnings are real accounting results but differ in repeatability compared to cloud revenue.
The company disclosed that this quarter included $3.2 billion from Anthropic investment income, combined with voluntary retirement plan expenses lower than originally expected, partially offset by severance costs and Xbox impairments. These items together, compared to the April 29 outlook, contributed a positive impact of $0.27 to diluted EPS. This does not mean the entire $0.27 should be removed, but it should be clearly separated when comparing core operations.
Other income net on the income statement was $3.444 billion, compared to other expenses of $1.707 billion in the same period last year; the cash flow statement also shows net gains of $3.743 billion from investments and derivatives. The scopes and purposes of these two statements differ, so the numbers cannot be directly interchanged, but both confirm that investment revaluation had a significant impact on net income direction this quarter.
Regarding OpenAI, Microsoft provides non-GAAP adjustments to exclude investment effects. This quarter, OpenAI investments contributed a positive impact of $480 million to GAAP net income and $0.07 to EPS; adjusted net income was $35.286 billion, and adjusted EPS was $4.74. In the same period last year, OpenAI investments dragged net income down by $1.575 billion, so the annual comparison is affected by this directional reversal.
Non-GAAP figures help comparison but cannot replace GAAP. Anthropic earnings were not fully excluded in the same OpenAI non-GAAP statement; voluntary retirement, severance, and gaming impairments also have economic implications. Selecting only $4.74 EPS might still retain other discrete earnings; selecting only $4.81 EPS might let investment volatility obscure the core business. The safest approach is to present operating profit, GAAP net income, and company-defined adjusted figures side by side.
Segment data provides core business verification: Productivity and Business Processes operating profit was $21.9 billion, Intelligent Cloud $15.955 billion, and More Personal Computing $2.748 billion. The combined growth of the first two segments is sufficient to prove core operational improvement without relying on investment income; meanwhile, the decline in MPC reminds that the business is not uniformly strong.
Therefore, this quarter can acknowledge two things simultaneously: Microsoft's cloud and productivity businesses delivered substantial operating profit growth, and GAAP EPS was additionally amplified by investments and discrete items. Subsequent content will not invent a "true EPS" but will present official metrics layer by layer to avoid misrepresenting asset price fluctuations as sustainable product profitability.True market strength does not mean all coins rise simultaneously, but rather that funds are increasingly concentrated. The most obvious recent change is not the price, but the flow of liquidity. When the market enters a mature stage, funds are not evenly distributed but continuously flow to the assets with the most consensus and volume. Even if other projects occasionally bounce back, they may only be brief noise. 📊 Current phenomena to watch: • Open interest declines, indicating that excessive leverage is decreasing. • Trading volume remains active, meaning real funds are still trading. • The market is starting to reward patience rather than chasing gains. 💰 Current capital focus areas: $BTC | Core market assets $ETH | Institutional funds preferred $SOL | Highly elastic public chain representatives $WLD | AI narrative focus $DATA | AI infrastructure $HYPE | Risk appetite indicators Some altcoins are gaining more attention: $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP, $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS Meanwhile, some projects still lack sustained financial support, and the rebound is limited. The real market opportunity does not belong to those chasing hot topics, but to those who patiently wait for capital confirmation. Go with the flow, respect fluidity, not emotion. #DailyOrbit #FedRateDecision #BigTIn the early hours of July 30th Beijing time, the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision was released, and it remains unchanged, with no doubts about it. But the market never looks at "what," but rather at "what it means." This time, everyone tacitly translated "unchanged" as "sooner or later it will loosen." The result is that the reactions of various assets are quite interesting. On the US side, the Dow Jones is still down 1.09%, but the losses have already narrowed significantly; The S&P 500 is almost turning positive, just one breath away; The Nasdaq, where tech stocks are clustered, is the most direct, turning positive and rising first. $BTC The crypto market also caught its breath. Bitcoin jumped briefly, rising just over 0.7%, while Ethereum surged slightly by 1.15%. The overall market has warmed up, but to be honest, this increase feels more like a "casual move," not a "real rush" stance. The real protagonist is gold. Spot gold surged by $20 in the short term, reaching as high as $4,064 per ounce. This kind of intensity is what it means to be "truly fragrant." The US dollar index was in a tough spot, dropping nearly 27 points in the short term to 101.1. $XAG Several Details to Consider Since the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, the market has long been trained to be a "liquidity conditioning." Whenever policy signals lean dovish, buy first. Although there was no rate cut this time, the market has already played out the script itself. But the interesting part is precisely here: in a market with "loose expectations," Bitcoin and Ethereum should be much more elastic than gold and should rally even crazierly. But this time, Bitcoin is 0.7%The deleveraging process in the Korean market is nearing its end: the most fearful phase has passed
The recent performance in the Korean market has kept many investors up all night. Plummets, forced liquidations, and panic selling intertwined, pushing market sentiment close to freezing point at one point. Standing in the present, combined with the latest data, I have a few judgments I want to share with everyone.
1. How brutal was this round of crashes?
Let's start with the numbers—shocking. South Korea's KOSPI index fell below 5,600 points from its historical high of about 9,114 points in June, plunging nearly 40% cumulatively. On July 28, it plunged 10.84% in a single day, closing at 6023.66 points; the next day, it dropped nearly 6%, falling below the 6000-point mark. In July, the intraday low has dropped 28.85%, far exceeding the S&P 500's 1.64%, the Nasdaq's 5.49%, and even the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's 21.42%.
The ChiNext board was even worse—KOSDAQ closed down 7.72% and 6.12% for two consecutive days. This marks the first time in the history of South Korea's two major stock indices that circuit breakers have been triggered for two consecutive days. Since the beginning of this year, the Korean stock market has triggered circuit breakers eight times, accounting for more than 60% of the total since the mechanism was implemented.
At the individual stock level, Samsung Electronics fell over 13% on July 28, and SK Hynix dropped over 14%. SK Hynix's market value evaporated by over $470 billion in just over a month.
2. Deleveraging has entered its final stage—data speaks for itself
Financing balances plummeted. South Korea's total market credit financing balance fell from a historic peak of 38.6 trillion won on June 24 to 32.67 trillion won on July 24, a decrease of 15.4%.
The scale of leveraged ETFs shrank from $50 billion to $17 billion. By the end of June, the scale of leveraged ETFs linked to the Korean market had reached about $50 billion, four times the level comparable to U.S. stocks. Currently down to about $17 billion, JPMorgan believes it has returned to a level that no longer poses a prominent risk.
Hedge funds have completed about 90% of deleveraging. JPMorgan data shows that the long-short leverage ratio for hedge funds dropped from a peak of 5.7 times to 3.2 times on July 27. On July 28-29, the price momentum factor showed a significant pullback, indicating that leverage has further decreased, with the overall deleveraging process about 90% complete.
The pressure to liquidate is easing. On July 20, brokerages forcibly liquidated positions amounted to 52.8 billion KRW, with a forced liquidation ratio of 4.6%. By July 23, the amount of forced liquidation had dropped to 14.9 billion KRW, with the proportion of accounts receivable dropping to 1.4%. The proportion of accounts receiving margin call notifications once rose to about 5%, but as margin financing balances continue to decline, the pressure to liquidate is easing.
Foreign selling pressure has slowed. Foreign investors have sold over $110 billion worth of Korean stocks this year. But since July, net sales have only reached 9.8 trillion won, while May and June saw significant drops of 48.4 trillion won and 44.5 trillion won respectively.
3. The most extreme stampede is unlikely to happen again
The reason is simple: the chips that could be stepped on have already been stepped on.
In its July 29 report, JPMorgan clearly concluded that the core driving force behind the recent sharp decline in the Korean stock market—leverage reduction—is nearing its end. The scale of leveraged ETFs has shrunk by two-thirds, hedge funds have completed 90% of deleveraging, and foreign selling pressure has eased as the storage leader's weighting in MSCI has declined. The market lacks the foundation for further deterioration due to "retail investors blowing up positions and foreign capital trampling on positions."
KOSPI's current 12-month expected price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to about 5 times, the lowest since 2000; The semiconductor sector even fell below 4 times. Low valuations do not mean volatility ends immediately, but they provide a buffer for the market to rebuild risk appetite as deleveraging nears its end.
4. Subsequent Trend: Recovery and Bearish Decline Side by Side
There won't be another large-scale crash like the past two days, but that doesn't mean an immediate reversal or a big rally. A more likely scenario is:
· Better-quality stocks gradually recover in valuation after extreme pessimism subsides;
· High-beta stocks with weak fundamentals and previously supported by liquidity may enter a slow decline.
Of course, the above judgment is based on the premise that "this round of deleveraging has been fully released." If new deteriorating variables emerge in the external liquidity environment, the pace of clearing may be prolonged. But for now, the most panicked part has most likely passed
$SNDK $SKHYNIX #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations Last night when I saw the Federal Reserve's decision, my first reaction was:
No rate hike, that should be a relief.
But then looking further, the vote was 9 to 3, and the 3 opposing members weren't in favor of a rate cut, but wanted to raise rates by 25 basis points.
That changes the tone completely.
So I wouldn't directly translate "maintaining the rate" as good news; at least it shows some insiders think inflation hasn't been fully controlled yet.
Whether BTC can digest this hawkish detail next is more worth watching than the news headlines.
$BTC黑方兵阵在第七横排开始松散，对手的计时器滴答作响。Hyperliquid的HYPE棋盘上，四万三千枚棋子正在经历一场精心计算的抽水：Multicoin的395K车在七日前已悄悄移动到交易所的底线，而七天的解锁时限如同棋钟的加秒——当197万枚兵（时价1.08亿美元）在7月28日傍晚完成兑子，整条直线从61美元滑向55美元，十个百分点的失地就是一次漂亮的象位攻击。
这盘棋的中局早已不是简单的子力交换。Grayscale的现金流量表是藏在王翼的暗车，GLC Research统计的优先费收入超过500万美元，支撑着3000万美元的回购——这就像在残局前故意弃掉一个兵，换取对手后翼的开放线。真正的战略棋手不会盯着K线图上那根10%的阴线，他们在计算：当价格跌破50美元时，Multicoin的剩余仓位会触发怎样的心理封锁？七天等待期的设计本身就是一次逼兑，对手的耐心被时间挤压，每一步都在消耗自己的棋钟。
美股标的XSPY像棋盘上的过路兵，它的联动深度揭示了更隐蔽的博弈：当传统市场的资金流与加密货币的抽水同步，就像双马连环同时威胁两翼。那些匆忙从质押中撤出的HYPE，与其说是恐慌抛售，不如说是在对局中故意暴露一个弱点，引诱对手的象进入自己布置的陷阱。
最后一步不需要将军。残局的艺术在于——当所有子力都暴露在光线下，真正的胜负手早已写在十步之前的那个平淡兑子里。 #hypeunstakingwave刚看到BitMEX要关了的新闻，说实话有点恍惚。
这交易所可是永续合约的发明者。2014年那会儿没有BitMEX，就没有后来的百倍杠杆市场。一周之内三家交易所关门——BitMEX、BitMart、AscendEX，全倒在这个熊市里了。
这个剧本我见过。前两轮熊市末期也是——交易所批量倒下的时候，就是最恐慌也最接近底部的时候。反观BTC今天振幅才0.16%，64,000缩量横着，J值83超买区但价格就是不跌。抛压散了，接盘也没力气。每次筑底都长这样，磨人但有效。
山寨那边更惨，SNDK一天12个点往下砸，BEAT插针插得人怀疑人生。交易所关停+山寨血流成河+散户恐慌，底部三件套又凑齐了。
没人能精准抄到最低点。但历史不简单重复，却总是惊人地押韵。
$BTC $ETH $SOLThat $35 billion tower crane is erecting the first steel pillar on the Ohio wastelands—NVIDIA and Google, the world's richest construction leaders, are using financial scaffolding to lay the foundation for the AI edifice that even they have never publicly acknowledged. OpenAI rented not a data center, but a whole 10GW power load area, which is equivalent to leveling Central Park and building three World Trade Centers. But did you see the mezzanine on the drawings clearly? NVIDIA only guarantees lease and construction debts, but avoids its own chip layer—a classic shirking clause for contractors, who would rather take responsibility for concrete than commit to the maximum load for the rebar spacing of their BIM models.
Google is even more aggressive: it raised third-party lease default guarantees from $6.5 billion to $44 billion—just enough to replicate ten Las Vegas strips, but targeting a non-NVIDIA chip ecosystem. I've seen this kind of operation in architectural firms—when the main structure designer quietly amplifies the margin for subcontractors' nodes, it's usually because they know the wind tunnel test data for the original plan is inflated. Right now, the bond issuance prospectus on Wall Street is your construction drawing, and the yield curve marked on it is the concrete grade. But what truly determines whether this AI city can withstand a magnitude 8 earthquake is the wafer in Omaha's private lab that hasn't passed resistance testing yet.
XORCL's stock price drew a strange moment curve on this blueprint—it neither followed NVIDIA's tower cranes nor stuck to Google's load platform, but instead found its own load point in the gaps of chip claims. I've seen too many construction logs of unfinished buildings. When two major contractors start reserving settlement joints for each other's foundations, it means neither has figured out the underground river beneath the plot. #nvidiagooglebackai#银行业联名施压, the terms of CLARITY stablecoin may be regenerated
The banking industry's final comeback? 134 executives jointly pressure, CLARITY stablecoin terms may become a potential change
What was once thought to be a certainty for the CLARITY Act was now "stabbed in the back" by the banking industry at the critical moment. This concerns the "financial future" of USDC in our hands and the overall direction of the crypto market, and is worth careful consideration.
Just yesterday, more than 134 officials and bank executives from the American Bankers Association jointly submitted a letter to the Senate, demanding a final revision of Section 10404 of the CLARITY Act.
Simply put, the core demand of bankers is one thing: to completely plug the loophole of stablecoins' "disguised interest-generating effects."
Previously, although the Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise banned direct interest payments, it retained the reward space linked to "real business activity." Banks see this as a "backdoor"—if stablecoins can provide similar returns through rewards or incentives, then ordinary people's money will definitely flow to the crypto market, so who would still deposit it in banks?
The wording of this joint letter is very severe, warning that if this gap is not sealed, the deposit base supporting local loans could weaken by hundreds of billions of dollars. Previous analyses even predicted that bank deposits could decrease by $1.3 trillion, and community bank lending capacity would decrease by $850 billion.
This is no longer just a simple battle for financial innovation, but a battle for survival.
Interestingly, Wall Street is not monolithic. Investment banking factions, led by Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon, publicly support the bill's advancement, believing clear regulation creates a fair environment; JPMorgan's Dimon stands with retail banks, firmly opposing stablecoins eroding deposits. BlackRock, also holding huge stablecoin reserves and RWA tokenization businesses, calls for clear rules. Clear cracks have appeared within traditional financial giants due to differences in interest structures.
What does this mean for the market?
Currently, the CLARITY Act has been passed by the Senate Banking Committee and is awaiting a full vote. This joint letter is a last-minute pressure from the banking industry to embed amendments before the bill reaches its final vote.
If the amendment passes, the stablecoin's "interest-like" reward mechanism will be greatly compressed, which would be a blow to the business models and valuation logic of issuers like USDC. But if the bill passes cleanly, it will clear compliance barriers for institutional funds (pensions, insurance, etc.), with Citi analysts even linking BTC's $143,000 target price to this.
Whether it will be a "compliance bull" or a "regulatory chokehold," the coming weeks will be the decisive battle.On July 30, the US storage sector welcomed a long-awaited warmth. STX surged 8.18%, WDC rose 6.29%, SKHY rose 3.01%, and SNDK also rose nearly 1%. Several core stocks collectively fluttered in the red, forming a stark contrast to the devastation a few days ago. Why say "long time no see"? Because just a few days ago, this sector experienced an unexpected disaster. Before the market opened on July 27, storage stocks were still broadly rising, and market sentiment was quite optimistic. But after the market opened, the situation changed dramatically, with almost no substantial negative news released. Stocks like SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate all plunged sharply, with intraday drops exceeding 6%, catching investors off guard. The next day, the decline not only failed to stop but continued to expand, pushing sector confidence to the brink of collapse. $SNDK So today's bullish candlestick has sparked considerable market controversy. One perspective holds that this is a typical technical recovery after a sharp drop; after a large drop, naturally some will buy the bottom. Short-term funds are hoping for a rebound and then exiting, which does not necessarily mean a trend reversal. The other side is relatively optimistic, believing that industry fundamentals have not deteriorated, and that the panic selling in recent days was an overreaction of market sentiment, while today's recovery is a correction for mispricing. $SKHYNIX It's hard to say for now which is right or wrong between the two camps. But there's one intriguing detail: in this round of rebound, Seagate Technology led by a wide margin with an 8.18% increase, surpassing Western Digital and SK Hynix. Behind this divergence may lie subtle shifts in market logic. Over the past two years, the narrative of the AI wave has almost$CL $XAU
大家好！在这个不平静的早上，让我们看看原油和黄金
①原油
当日行情：原油价格大幅反弹。布伦特原油期货上涨超8%，重回90美元上方。据路透数据，布伦特原油上涨7.91%至90.74美元/桶。WTI原油上涨约7.6%，站上85美元。纽约期油升穿85美元，升逾7%。
上涨驱动：中东冲突再度升级。伊朗对美军设施发动突袭，战争风险升温。美国中央司令部表示伊朗革命卫队发射的弹道导弹已被全部拦截。沙特拦截了来自伊拉克亲伊朗民兵组织的无人机袭击。美伊关系从外交斡旋再度转向冲突。
短期展望：市场分析预期，由于中东冲突时而激化、时而缓和，布油短期内在80-100美元区间波动。布油若站稳100美元，9月美联储加息概率将大幅上升。油价走势是9月FOMC会议前最关键的数据变量之一。
② 黄金
当日行情：美联储利率决议公布后，美元指数及美债收益率下跌，金价直线拉升。现货黄金涨1.82%，站上4,100美元/盎司。盘中最高触及4,085.92美元。伦敦现货黄金报4,065.88美元/盎司。纽约黄金期货报4,132.12美元/盎司。2026年8月黄金期货收于4,036.3美元。
技术面：6月20日以来，伦敦现货黄金整体在3,940-4,200美元/盎司区间运行。RSI已达82.94——严重超买。日线级别仍处3,940-4,200美元区间，尚未突破。下方关注4,010美元支撑，上方关注4,065美元压力。
驱动因素：原油暴涨叠加通胀预期升温推高黄金。美联储维持利率不变但内部鹰派分歧加剧，地缘政治风险升温。
短期展望：金价处于严重超买状态，当前位置追多性价比偏低。中长期支撑逻辑未变——央行购金仍可能推动金价中枢逐步上移。但短期以震荡为主。$SNDK I'm back again
But this time, my finger was hovering over the close key
1010.54 opened with 50x long orders
Current price 1015, unrealized profit 9.3U, increase 23%
Margin 40.6U, 2 positions
The books are green
But I couldn't laugh
Strong parity price is 988.88
There is only a 26-point buffer from the current price
a 2.6% decline
This string is stretched too tight
As long as one bearish candlestick breaks through 1000,
This is a 40U margin and 9U profit
Instantly reset to zero
Just yesterday I lost 128U on this platform
Come back today
Saying I'm not afraid would be a lie
But this time I brought stop-losses
I don't intend to let it do whatever it wants anymore
Immediately pull the take-profit and stop-loss lines to between 1000 and 1005
Falling below 1000 means the bulls still can't hold up
Whether to break even or exit with a small profit, never hesitate
If it can hold above 1030,
So I pushed my stop loss above 1015
Use profits to bet on 1050
Take a look at the 1-hour chart
The MACD green bars are shortening but still below the zero axis
SK Hynix has already fallen below 950
The entire semiconductor sector is still struggling in a slump
Go long in this environment
It's about picking up coins at the bottom of the waterfall
It was already poured over once yesterday
Today, I can't be stabbed twice by the same knife
$LAB actually bounced up from 0.1257
V-shaped reversal pulled 11 points
Current price is 0.1552 MACD golden cross
It looks quite convincing
But 0.1603 is today's high
If you can't break through, it's just a double top
I absolutely won't chase this position
I really want to touch it. Place a limit order between 0.145 and 0.148
Wait until the MA support is broken after a pullback
If you don't give them a chance, let them act on their own
$SKHYNIX and SNDK are in the same sector, struggling together
It has already fallen below 950
The 4-hour MACD green bars are still pushing downward
The lowest was 885
Funds are completely fleeing
Tuition was already paid yesterday
Not even looking today
Wait for a bullish divergence to appear between 850 and 880
Or stay above the MA20 for an hour before talking
Now, just block him directly
I don't expect big profits from this order
Could they avoid losses or even close out with minimal profit?
It was victory
Close the SNDK page and set your stop-loss accordingly
Let it run on its own
Don't let profit cloud your judgment
Nor are fears controlling the hands
Today's goal is just one
Come out alive with 40U in principal7.30, Morning Brief #美联储即将公布利率决议
Plain language interpretation of the Federal Reserve monetary policy press conference:
This time the Fed held steady, but Waller's remarks leaned hawkish throughout. He first directly corrected the market's easing fantasies, clearly stating that this decision should never be defined as a pause in rate hikes, emphasizing that this is a strict review of the economic situation and the beginning, not the end, of the policy story;
Then he firmly stuck to the 2% inflation target with no room for relaxation, bluntly saying the market's expectation of a soft target is a misunderstanding, and specifically pointed out that the June core CPI single-month cooling data has very little impact on the decision and will not lead to easing just because of one month's data;
Finally, he issued a strong statement saying that if inflation remains high, high interest rates and even further rate hikes will continue to be used as tools to suppress inflation, firmly holding down the market's preemptive expectations of rate cuts, with a very clear and resolute hawkish stance.
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 $SKHYNIX #停火48小时告吹，美伊边打边谈 #银行业联名施压, the terms of CLARITY stablecoin may be regenerated
Over a hundred U.S. banking institutions jointly sent a letter to the Senate, collectively pressuring revisions to the stablecoin rules of the CLARITY Act, causing the previously balanced negotiations to face another twist.
The core contradiction is obvious:
The existing draft already restricts direct interest payments for payment-type stablecoins, but the banking industry believes the provisions contain loopholes and worry that platforms will disguised returns through various rewards and indirect incentives.
Banks' core concern: stablecoins will become a substitute for bank deposits, triggering massive deposit losses and disrupting traditional credit systems, requiring the complete shutdown of all types of yield models.
1. The legislative game has entered its most difficult stage
The debate is not just a word game; at its core, it is a battle between traditional banks and stablecoin issuers for dollar depositor funds. If the banking industry tightens the terms as demanded, the DeFi stablecoin wealth management sector will be directly under pressure; If the current version is maintained, the bank will continue to lobby lawmakers to block the bill's progress.
2. Short-term expectations for implementation cooled again
Previously, the market expected a vote on the Gradual Pricing Act within the window period, but now that divisions have resurfaced, there is a risk of a downward revision in the probability of passage. Regulatory expectations repeatedly pull and pull, making it difficult to create a sustained unilateral rally.
Let me share my independent judgment:
There is no simple positive or negative news.
Optimistic scenario: The industry and banks have reached a compromise amendment, the bill is smoothly implemented, bringing medium- to long-term regulatory certainty.
Pessimistic scenario: Irreconcilable differences, votes postponed or even postponed again, and regulatory narratives in the crypto sector cool off in the short term.
Practical reminder:
Don't bet on the bill being implemented quickly. During the news tug-of-war phase, repeated reversals in expectations are very common. Two key points will be continuously tracked: whether the Senate will accept the banking amendment, and whether the full voting schedule will be delayed.
Do you think that with banks continuing to pressure the bill, it will directly slow down the pace of the CLARITY Act?[Introduction to US Stocks 06] The Three AI Directions We Care About Most and How to Allocate Positions?
After reviewing the entire AI industry chain, the most important focus for tracking right now is still three directions. The positioning logic for each direction is completely different, so never buy in the same way.
The first direction is AI energy. In addition to BWXT, we will continue to monitor companies like Oklo, which directly benefit from data center power demand. But it's important to note that these risk levels are completely different: BWXT has mature businesses and government orders, making it more stable; Companies like Oklo are much more volatile and risky, so you can't buy with a core position approach. If you choose the right direction but position the wrong position, you will still suffer losses.
The second direction is AI storage. As GPUs continue to upgrade in the future, HBM's bottlenecks will become increasingly apparent, with Micron and SK Hynix remaining the core beneficiaries of this industry chain. But the storage industry has strong cycles; after a large rise, it will pull back. When capital spending rises, supply and demand will change, so this direction should follow financial reports and price rhythms, not just blindly enter after reading the article.
The third direction is AI Agents. In the future, AI will not just answer questions; it will perform tasks on its own, consume itself, and complete payments on its own. New opportunities will definitely emerge in fields like payments, stablecoins, and robotics. For example, companies like Coinbase are worth studying because if AI Agents truly start autonomous transactions and payments in the future, a payment system will be needed, along with stablecoins as underlying infrastructure.
Of course, this sector is farther and more remote than computing power and power, so we will continue to monitor it, but we won't treat companies at different stages with the same positioning logic. Core warehouses, offensive warehouses, and satellite warehouses must be clearly distinguished.
For companies with only stories and no real business implementation, we won't cling to it just because we can't bear it;
The industry direction is correct, but for short-term gains that are too fast or valuations are overdrawn, we won't blindly chase them. We will wait for earnings reports and price corrections, waiting for better entry opportunities;
Companies truly standing at the core of the industry, with unchanged demand, orders, and long-term logic, if the market continues to offer lower prices, will continue to buy in batches.
Specifically, the target is:
For a core company like Google, which we've studied for a long time and whose fundamentals haven't changed, we'll keep holding onto it. If the market offers a better price, we'll increase our positions;
A company like BWXT, which already has business and orders, and stands at the intersection of nuclear energy + defense + AI power, won't sell just because of short-term fluctuations;
Micron, Broadcom, and Arista, which are stuck at storage and network bottlenecks, are promising long-term prospects, but their operations should be based on earnings reports and prices—not just any position can be chased blindly;
For stocks like Oklo and Coinbase, which have large future potential but are also more volatile and uncertain, we place them in high-risk satellite pods. If you choose correctly, they can bring good returns, and if you make the wrong ones, they won't affect the security of your entire account.
This is what the three-tier health check method ultimately does: it's not just a stock list, but a guide to putting each company in the right operating position.
You see, we dare to buy when prices are falling—not because we're bold or have plenty of money, but because we're truly prepared before the price drops. Whether you keep cash, what proportion of your core holdings you hold, how much to allocate to high-risk stocks, and whether a 50% drop in a single stock will affect your life and sleep—these questions haven't been thought through, and talking about long-term investing is just empty talk.
Why do we always have money to add positions during market panics? Because we adjust our cash ratio in advance and place different types of assets into different position levels.
So when we say we are optimistic about AI and buying on dips, it's not about going all in on cash at once, nor is it about borrowing money to chase highs. Our judgment is clear: the long-term main theme of AI is not over, the industry logic hasn't changed, and short-term account drawdowns won't change our judgment of the entire industry cycle. The real major rally may just be beginning. As value investors, now is the time to invest in phases.
Of course, with the direction clear, there are still many details to pay attention to: which companies are still worth buying at current prices, which have already overdrawn years of future growth; After Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon released their earnings reports, whose AI investment started converting into revenue, and who was still burning cash. These things can't be guessed blindly now; they have to wait for the financial report numbers to verify them.
Finally, a reminder: AiCoin has no private trading groups or actively recommends stocks. All public operations and sharing are published on official channels. There are many scammers online who impersonate avatars or fake accounts, so everyone must be careful to identify and avoid being deceived.
When it comes to investing, we always feel that sharing real operations and thoughts is far more valuable than shouting about ups and downs. If these insights can help everyone build their own investment framework, avoid pitfalls amid volatility, and gradually improve their returns through investment, then this is meaningful. #苹果公司市值重回全球首位, surpassing Nvidia 🚨Many people like to study who will rise, but rarely study why funds leave.
In fact, most projects lose value not because of a crash, but because funds leave early.
Price is just the last reaction.
The real changes have long occurred in on-chain fund flows, trading activity, and ecosystem growth.
When more and more funds stop participating, a project slowly enters a "bleeding state."
At first, it's just a decline in trading volume, then a decline in depth, and later the rebounds become weaker and the drops become easier.
Why can $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL restore liquidity the fastest after every market adjustment?
Because they have always been the largest capital reservoirs in the entire industry.
When risk appetite decreases, funds return here; when risk appetite increases, funds flow from here to other ecosystems.
As for $HYPE, $WLD, $ENA, $ONDO, $INJ, $SEI, $TIA, $CORE, $PYTH, $TAO, $FET, $JUP, $EIGEN, $RENDER, and $OKB, they need to continuously absorb liquidity from the mainstream market.
Without new capital inflows, prices will ultimately be affected.
Regarding $SLX, $LAYER, $APR, $PIPPIN, $LIGHT, $COMP, $GPS, $LAB, $CHIP, $BEAT, $BSB, $RAVE, $MRVL, $H, $DOGE, $ZEC, $ALLO, $PARTI, $HMSTR, $HOME, and $OFC.
The biggest fear here is not a price drop, but fund silence.
Because once liquidity starts to dry up, no matter how good the positive news is, it’s hard to reignite market enthusiasm.
⚠️Price can deceive, trading volume can deceive, but the ultimate flow of funds does not lie. True opportunities are always born where funds flow back in.$ETH Nonprofit Ethereum Institutional officially announced the completion of its first ecosystem funding round and formally established a supporters' alliance. Lead investors: BitMine, Sharplink, Ethereum co-founders Joe Lubin, Mihai Alisie; Over 100 industry leaders from the alliance are members: AAVE, Arbitrum, Circle, Galaxy, Robinhood, Uniswap Labs, and zkSync have all joined the competition. Core institutional goals: fully promote large-scale institutional deployment on Ethereum and Layer 2 networks, focusing on asset tokenization (RWA), stablecoins, on-chain collateral, and institutional settlement infrastructure; Continuously connecting banks, asset management institutions, custodians, fintech companies, and sovereign capital, building a neutral communication bridge between traditional finance and the Ethereum ecosystem. 🚨 A large number of players are calling out that Ethereum is facing a huge positive trend, predicting a one-sided surge! Rational Key Point: This is a medium- to long-term top-level ecosystem strategic benefit, opening up a channel for traditional capital to enter the market, but it will not immediately trigger a short-term surge! The biggest anchor point in the market is still the Fed's interest rate decision in the early morning. All positive factors require macro liquidity to support it, so don't rely solely on this major news to buy highs! 1. The Four Core Values of Deep Messaging 1. The Ethereum ecosystem forms a top-tier united front: co-founders, leading L2s, DeFi leaders, stablecoin issuers, exchanges, and investment banks form collective alliances. Say goodbye to ecological diversity[Introduction to US Stocks 05]
Some may ask: After all this, is NVIDIA no longer important? Of course not. Many people think Nvidia's biggest advantage is GPU hardware, but its true moat is the CUDA ecosystem. Simply put, the vast number of engineers worldwide have built AI development tools and software systems on NVIDIA's platform.
It's not that others can't make GPUs—AMD can, and Google has its own chips. But once you build hardware, the entire set of development tools and engineers' habits has to be rebuilt. This migration cost is Nvidia's deepest moat. Moreover, NVIDIA is no longer just selling a single chip; it is selling a complete AI cabinet packaged with GPU, network, software, cooling, and packaging. The future competition will not be on individual chips but on solutions for entire "AI factories."
So the next phase of AI funding won't stay in just one company. It will flow from computing power to electricity, to networks, to storage, and finally to truly profitable AI applications. What you need to look for isn't which stock is rising the fastest today, but which company is already waiting when the capital moves to the next stop.
Third layer: Company positioning — distinguishing what to sell, what to wait, and what to buy
The final checkup is to see where your company stands. This is very important: just because the AI direction is right doesn't mean all AI stocks will rise.
The internet changed the world, but when the internet bubble burst, a large number of companies went bankrupt; Electric vehicles are a long-term trend, but it doesn't mean all car companies will survive in the end. So you can't just buy all the stocks related to AI power, AI networks, or AI agents just because you hear about AI, electricity, AI, or AI agents. Retail investors don't have enough funds to cast a net.
When we look at a company, we first look at whether it has real business: whether revenue is growing, whether orders are solid, who the customers are, and whether cash flow can sustain its development.
Second, check whether it has a genuine commercial closed loop; it can't rely on financing forever or rely on the next round of investors to tell the story.
Third, see if you're standing in a position others can't avoid.
For example, Google—over the past six months, we've been continuously increasing our holdings. It's not because we think it will grow every day, nor because having Gemini equals an AI company, but because Google has three core advantages that many people overlook: First, Google Cloud is still growing rapidly, and AI customers will eventually pay in the cloud; Second, YouTube is one of the world's largest video platforms. In the future, AI-generated content will increase, and whoever has users and platforms will have the chance to turn traffic into money; Third, the advertising business has very strong cash flow, enough to support its continued investment in AI.
Compared to many pure growth tech stocks, its valuation is not outrageous. So we keep buying it—not because it has no risk—whether AI will impact search, whether capital expenditures can ultimately turn into profits, all need to be tracked and verified. But when you look at the risks alongside your existing business, the risk-reward ratio is still very good.
That's the logic behind investment. You can buy wrong, you can make wrong judgments, but you can't be without logic. Many people believe their logic is correct when stocks rise; When stocks drop, you panic to cut your losses—that's not investing, it's letting the price lead your emotions.
A truly rational judgment should be: before buying, you know why you bought it; after it drops, recheck whether your original reason for buying has changed. When the reason changes, they admit their mistakes and leave; The reason hasn't changed, and in fact, the company's industry position has grown stronger. The market downturn gives you the opportunity to position at low prices.1. Meeting Overview
On July 29, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting, announcing that the target range for the federal funds rate would be maintained at 3.50% to 3.75%. This marks the fifth consecutive pause by the Fed since 2026, with the last rate cut dating back to December 2025.
2. Voting Results: A Rare 9-3 Split
The vote at this meeting was 9 in favor and 3 against, a stark contrast to the unanimous 12-0 vote in June.
The three dissenting votes came from regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents:
· Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed)
· Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed)
· Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed)
All three advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed has seen three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction in a single policy decision, reflecting a significant increase in internal support for tightening.
3. Statement Changes: Communication Reform in the Warsh Era
Compared to the June statement, there were only three changes:
1. Voting results changed from "12 in favor, 0 against" to "9 in favor, 3 against"
2. Wording adjusted from "reaffirm" to "continue to implement" regarding the bank reserves policy
3. Added information on dissenters: explicitly listing the three dissenters and their rate hike stance
More notably, there was a structural change. Under Chairman Kevin Warsh's leadership, the Fed's statement was drastically shortened; the June statement contained only about 130 English words, far less than the previous length of over 300 words. The statement no longer provides forward guidance nor discloses committee members' expectations for future rate paths. Warsh believes "forward guidance is no longer suitable for the current macroeconomic environment."
4. Economic Assessment and Inflation Outlook
Current economic judgment:
· Economic activity is "expanding robustly," with strong productivity growth and capital investment
· Employment growth is keeping pace with labor force expansion, with little change in the unemployment rate
· However, factors such as the Middle East conflict bring "heightened uncertainty"
Regarding inflation, the statement acknowledges that inflation "remains above the 2% target," partly due to supply shocks pushing up prices in sectors including energy. The U.S. CPI year-over-year in June rose 3.5% (previously 4.2%), and core CPI rose 2.6% (previously 2.9%). However, renewed tensions in the Middle East in July caused international oil prices to rebound from below $70 to above $80, pushing up inflation expectations.
According to the June SEP (Summary of Economic Projections), the Fed significantly raised its 2026 inflation forecast: PCE price index from 2.7% to 3.6%, core PCE remained at 3.3%; economic growth was slightly revised down to 2.2%, and unemployment rate revised down to 4.3%.
5. Market Reaction: Triple Shock in Stocks, Bonds, and Forex
Following the announcement, markets experienced severe volatility:
Bond Market: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5.2%, reaching a high of 5.226%, the first time since 2007. Analysts interpret this as the market doubting the Fed's credibility in fighting inflation.
Stock Market: U.S. stocks plunged sharply at the close, with the Dow dropping over 1100 points; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 3%.
Forex Market: The U.S. dollar index continued to weaken, with the euro rising over 0.6% against the dollar to 1.1467.
Gold: Spot gold briefly surpassed $4100/oz, gaining over 2%.
The money market lowered rate cut bets, with cumulative expectations for cuts by year-end dropping from 44 basis points to 36 basis points; the market still fully prices in two 25 basis point hikes by mid-next year.
6. Summary: Hawkish Pause or Divided Deadlock?
This meeting was characterized by Barclays economists as a "hawkish pause." On one hand, the majority maintained rates unchanged; on the other, the three dissenting votes and Warsh's statement that hikes will occur "if necessary" imply that the pause is a delay rather than an abandonment of tightening.
Warsh is attempting to wean the Fed off reliance on forward guidance, anchoring decisions on real-time data. However, his communication reform has sparked controversy—some analysts criticize it as "all packaging, no action." With more inflation data expected in September and continued pressure from the three dissenting officials, whether Warsh can maintain internal consensus will be a key focus in the coming months.[Introduction to US Stocks 04] Building on the complete logic of the three-layer checkup I didn't cover last time, let's talk about the three AI industry chain directions we're most focused on right now: which stocks will continue to be bought on dips, which will wait for earnings reports to be released, and which can only be placed in high-risk small positions.
First layer: Capital verification — Has the AI main theme really ended?
People always say AI is a bubble. In fact, whenever a major tech cycle first begins, people always call it a bubble. When the internet first appeared, some people shouted; when electric vehicles were just beginning, some shouted—Bitcoin, cloud computing, artificial intelligence—none of these concepts were criticized as bubbles when they first appeared.
Whether it's a bubble or not isn't that important; the core is two things: whether money is still flowing in, and whether demand is still growing.
Now, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are all continuing to increase capital expenditures on AI and data centers, often reaching hundreds of billions. These tech giants don't joke with real money; you can say that a company invests in the wrong direction or a project doesn't make money in the end, and that's perfectly normal. But the world's wealthiest, most data-driven, and most customer-driven companies are all competing for GPUs, data centers, electricity, and network bandwidth. If you say the entire AI demand is over, that logic simply doesn't hold.
Moreover, AI has developed to a point where it's no longer just a chatbot to chat with people or write a couple of articles. Companies need to integrate AI into customer service, advertising, search, healthcare, manufacturing, robotics, and autonomous driving, ultimately all of which will focus on computing power and data centers.
So when we judge whether the AI cycle is over, we never look at what features a large model has updated, nor do we look at whether Nvidia is up 3% or down 5% today. We are watching whether the giants are still willing to continue investing money. As long as they continue to expand capital expenditure and compete for computing power, the main thread of AI infrastructure is not over.
Of course, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon haven't finished their Q2 earnings reports yet, so today I'll explain the logic behind their judgments. Once the financial data is realized, we will use the same three-tier checkup method, breaking down each case one by one: whether capital expenditures have increased, whether cloud business has grown, whether AI investment has started to monetize, and whether the invested money has recouped into profits and cash flow. Before the financial report comes out, who says the answer is 100% certain? It's just guessing.
Layer Two: Industrial Migration — Where will the next wave of money flow?
Many retail investors talk about AI with only three things in mind: large models, NVIDIA, and GPUs. You can't say wrong, but the perspective is too narrow.
If you only think of AI as a chat tool, it does seem very expensive now; But if you compare AI to the early stages of the internet—laying fiber optics, repairing base stations, and building data centers—then this industrial revolution may just be beginning.
AI is not the story of a single company; it is an entire industrial chain. You can imagine the future AI world as a new city; NVIDIA sells the city's most core production machines, but buying the machines is just the beginning.
When hundreds of thousands of GPUs move into data centers, the first thing is power supply. Without power, no matter how powerful the GPU is, it's just a bunch of scrap metal that won't boot. Traditional data centers already consume a lot of electricity, and the power demand for AI data centers is rising exponentially. AI servers like the GB300 have a power density on a completely different level from traditional servers. In the future, the electricity consumption of a large AI data center is almost equivalent to that of a small city.
That's why we've always said that the most profitable companies in the future AI sector won't necessarily be software companies, nor just GPUs and storage. The most reliable ones might be 'water sellers'—more precisely, companies supplying power to AI data centers, building power grids, supplying nuclear equipment, and ensuring long-term stable energy. This is also why electricity is currently a very worthwhile investment direction. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are all searching for new energy solutions, and nuclear energy has once again become the market focus.
For example, BWXT—we included it in our long-term research and portfolio list. It is not a newly established company that tells stories through presentations; it has long supplied nuclear reactor-related components and fuel to the U.S. Navy, and is also laying out small modular reactor SMRs. The business is divided into government and commercial segments. The commercial side produces core reactor components such as nuclear steam generators, heat exchangers, and pressure vessels, with most revenue coming from government orders.
This is actually why we are optimistic about it: it already has stable customers, orders, technology, and cash flow, and is already profitable, completely different from many nuclear energy companies still in the early commercialization stage. It stands at the intersection of three tracks: nuclear energy, defense, and AI-powered power. No matter which direction the capital rotates, it has a chance to benefit. Retail investors have limited funds, so it's impossible to buy all good companies. Choosing these multi-track cross-sector targets is the key to maximizing the effectiveness of limited funds.
With the electricity issue solved, the next step is networking. Hundreds of thousands of GPUs stacked together, transmitting data at high speeds, and if the network speed can't keep up, even the most expensive GPUs can't perform at their best. This is the value of companies like Broadcom and Arista — Broadcom makes high-speed network chips, Arista makes data center switches. In the internet era, it's all about how fast you get online; in the AI era, it's about how fast data exchanges between GPUs are. Whoever can solve network bottlenecks can make money.
#财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will hand over their results tonight $LIT $UNI $VVV — FOMC LIQUIDITY SWEEP SETUPS LOADING 💥
📌 When the Fed speaks, the market shakes. But vibrations above these levels are opportunities, not threats. Smart money is waiting for a panic to take on the real "bags".
💡 $LIT has regained the intraday trading value zone with a tight structure above 1.35 — if the FOMC asks/offloads, this is the bid signal to hold/buy. $UNI block printed an educational order near 7.80, while $VVV press inside a bullish flag pattern for 15 minutes after a 6% trading volume rally.
🔍 Watch: If any of these levels break below their swing lows, the liquidity will be swept away — and that's when the real reaction comes. Question: Who will precede/advance the deal before the sudden bounce? 💬 Are you expanding positions on long orders or waiting for the volatility to confirm the trend? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always recognize and identify risks. 🛡️
🏷️ #LIT #UNI #VVV #DipBuying #FOMC Samsung Electronics released its second-quarter financial report today, and the numbers are quite impressive. Revenue was 171 trillion KRW, and operating profit was 89.4 trillion KRW, both basically in line with expectations. However, net profit exceeded market expectations, reaching 71.3 trillion KRW. The focus is still on the chip division, which alone contributed 89.2 trillion won in operating profit, almost the entire source of the company's profits. These days, the idea of 'whoever controls the chip controls the world' is clearly reflected in Samsung. Samsung's outlook on the upcoming market is clear: AI will continue to hold the market, but the smartphone and PC sectors may need a break. Demand for server chips will remain strong, and supply shortages won't ease anytime soon. On the other hand, demand for chips used in mobile devices and computers may slow down. The memory chip business was specifically mentioned. Samsung believes that as companies continue to heavily invest in AI infrastructure and AI applications become more widespread, demand for memory modules will remain strong. Therefore, continued profit growth in the second half of the year is highly likely. Another detail: in the second quarter results, about 3.1 trillion won was an "unexpected windfall" from the depreciation of the won. Exchange rates are truly a double-edged sword. Overall, Samsung's financial report and outlook reveal only one core signal: the wave of AI hardware infrastructure is far from fading. Server and storage chips are the biggest beneficiaries of this wave of dividends, while consumer electronics are still waiting for the next spring. $SAMSUNG For ordinary consumers or investors, they may have to get used to this structural differentiation of "AI enthusiastic, cold consumption."ETH's current token structure is sending a signal with significant historical significance. 📉 Ethereum's MVRV indicator has dropped to 1.01, which almost means that the current market price of ETH is now approaching the average buying cost for all holders. Simply put, the entire market, from large players to retail investors, is on the edge of profit and loss, with almost no room for floating profits. 🧐
The last time MVRV dropped to this extreme level, ETH's price was still around $1600. And what happened next? It is a trending price rebound, with main funds strongly taking hold in low-chip concentration areas. History won't repeat itself, but at this point, ETH's cost-effectiveness and potential odds are clearly more attractive than BTC, which is still hovering above $60,000. 🔥
This is not just a technical bottom-fishing signal, but a critical point between market psychology and capital competition. When the overall market holding cost almost coincides with the current price, it means that even slight fluctuations in any direction can trigger intense emotional resonance. Whales and smart money often quietly position themselves in this "unprofitable" range, waiting for a burst when liquidity returns. 💎
#ETH #MVRV #Ethereum #Crypto #Altcoin #BitcoinNVIDIA NVDA's PE ratio has fallen below 30.
The last time it was so low dates back to 2019.
For example, in 2022, Nvidia's PE ratio didn't fall below 30.
You say Nvidia's market value is too high to be moved.
Looking at the apple, I was moved to tears.
You say Apple hasn't spent money on AI, but I think NVIDIA hasn't spent money on AI either—it's still the one that collects money.
What exactly is the market pricing for? Will Nvidia achieve zero or even negative growth after 2027?
$NVDA
$SKHYNIX $CORE The current core conflict centers on the mismatch between persistent inflation caused by treasury token unlocking and the BTCFi ecosystem's insufficient cash-generating capacity for actual fees, with market positions concentrating in a risk-averse direction.
The ongoing unlocking of treasury and team tokens has directly driven up market inflation, and in the absence of transparent transfer disclosures, selling expectations continue to suppress bullish risk appetite.
Currently, the protocol relies on mining issuance to maintain TVL, and the extremely low daily fee income prevents effective token buybacks, leading to a phased exit of on-chain tokens.
The driving factors ranked by priority are: on-chain locking rules for treasury tokens, real cash flow generated from SatPay commercialization, and transparency of market-making funds under independent community audits.
The trigger condition for the upside scenario is that the team implements on-chain forced locking of treasury tokens for more than one year, and proportionally executes the forced buyback of SatPay fees; A key variable to watch is whether SatPay's actual single-day revenue can offset the additional issuance selling pressure. If protocol revenue is less than 10% of the unlock value, the rebound logic fails.
The downside scenario triggers the roadmap extension without transparent lock-up actions; at this point, observe the rate at which the extremely low on-chain protocol revenue erodes the liquidity pool; If a large amount of treasury funds is transferred to the exchange, it will accelerate the clearing of positions; However, if large-scale long-term staking is initiated on-chain, the downward trend will pause temporarily.
The core variables to watch over the next 7 days are whether treasury token accounts have been locked on-chain and the specific launch schedule for the SatPay pilot project.
#AI巨头债券利差飙升: Investment risk or a good opportunity to buy the dip #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heardSpeak honestly about $CORE.
After that 99% crash, the price stopped at 0.018. Its market value dropped to about 21 million. The community was in chaos. $BTC Stakers keep selling. After months of waiting, the buyback was still nowhere to be found. Permissionless builders allow scammers to sneak in, harming the on-chain ecosystem. It feels exactly like a replay of the $ICE (ION) and $PI free mining exit traps.
But if they really deliver, the recovery path is actually quite simple.
$CORE will make a strong shift toward real revenue from BTCFi products in 2026. Lending, borrowing, yield applications, and SatPay New Bank. All these activities aim to buy back $CORE and create real demand, not just emissions.
The $ZEC partnership with Z Protocol is just extra fuel.
$CORE set up its Satoshi Plus to authorize private AI proxies on Zcash and block DeFi chains. Those fees flow back to the Core for more buybacks. $CORE holders can also receive $ZEC tokens in advance. This turns Core technology into something that can be franchised, generating additional revenue.
Double staking is a way to resolve selling pressure.
Stake BTC and CORE together to boost your Bitcoin yields without giving up custody. Making holding $CORE truly useful for $BTC holders.
If buybacks start to appear on-chain and Z fees initiate, oversold levels may finally reverse. Until then, it remains a high-risk zone for holders.
Now, we only look at the actual numbers, not on speculation. #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations In the past two hours, the market hasn't taken a new direction, BTC is still grinding around 64,000, OKX 24-hour range is 63,262–64,752; ETH is about 1912. The perpetual funding rates for BTC and ETH are both around 0.004%. The bulls are not crowded, and the market seems more like waiting for a new trigger.
Dr. Profit explained the disagreement quite clearly: he has closed out crypto short positions, switched to regular investment accumulation of BTC and ETH, and continued to hedge with US stock short positions; The reason is that AI stocks are more noticeably pulling back, while BTC and ETH remain within their ranges. He also plans to gradually close out Coinbase short positions in the coming weeks, so he is not entirely bearish on risk assets.
SoulXBT is more aggressive: the previous BTC long position at 63,482 was halved, and the remaining position stop-loss was moved to the current zone. The previous hard stop at 62,640 is no longer suitable for copying; At the same time, he kept his Nasdaq swing short position, choosing not to reduce his position, and his position style was clearly more aggressive than Dr Profit's. Chen Ge only pointed out that BTC has a potential head and shoulders bottom, but did not provide a neckline, confirmation level, or stop-loss mark. For now, it can only be observed as a pattern and cannot be considered an executable opportunity.
This round of rumors about the deprivation of LAB long positions and Korean leveraged accounts: the former has no corresponding spot on OKX and the source identity is unclear, while the latter has not yet found reliable public verification. Next, it remains to be seen whether 63,260 can hold, and whether 64,600–64,750 can break through with increased volume. #BTC #ETH Opinions and information are only compiled and do not constitute investment adviceToday's ETF Flows: Update on U.S. Spot Cryptocurrency ETF Funding:
🟥 Bitcoin ETF: -781 $BTC (-$49.75M)
🟩 Ethereum ETF: +4,900 $ETH (+$14.53M)
🟥 SOLANA ETF：-244.24K $SOL（-$18.07M）
🟥 HYPE ETF：-22.46K $HYPE（-$1.24M）
🟩 $XRP. $LINK, $BNB, $AVAX, $DOT, $HBAR, $DOGE, $LTC Cash flow is zero.$SNDK US stocks rebounded across the board before the market opened, with panic quickly recovering
Before the US stock market opened, storage stocks such as Micron Technology, SanDisk, and SK Hynix all turned positive, having generally plunged 3%-4% earlier; Seagate rose 4.6%, and Western Digital gained 2.2%.
The previous sharp decline in the sector stemmed from market concerns about the storage cycle peaking and SK Hynix's performance falling short of expectations, reflecting a short-term emotional crush.
Core support remains unshaken: AI computing power continues to drive the supply-demand gap for HBM high-end memory, long-term orders from manufacturers lock in downstream demand, fundamentals remain resilient, and negative factors have been fully priced in.
Short-term sector volatility persists. Going forward, focus will be on tracking the pace of storage contract price increases in Q3 and the implementation of AI capital expenditures. The recovery momentum from overseas giants is also expected to be transmitted to the A-share storage industry chain. #Hyperliquid海力士永续插针, the platform promised to compensate for liquidation losses