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Meta's large amount of cash does not mean AI is free: debt, buybacks, and capital expenditures must be balanced
Meta's official IR homepage is currently updated for Q1 2026, with Q2 calls scheduled after market close on July 29. Before the results are released, judging whether a company can afford AI investment cannot rely solely on cash balances; Cash and securities, debt, operating cash flow, capital expenditure, dividends, and buybacks are all different parts of the same capital allocation.
As of the end of Q1, cash and cash equivalents stood at $23.426 billion, and securities at $57.754 billion, totaling $81.18 billion; Long-term debt was $58.748 billion. Cash provides an investment buffer, while debt has interest and maturity constraints, allowing both to coexist. You can't treat data centers, talent, and depreciation as having no economic costs just because the company has a lot of liquidity.
The main profession is self-sustaining the second layer. Q1 operating cash flow was $32.226 billion, with $18.997 billion in property equipment purchases, and company free cash flow of approximately $12.39 billion. Management has raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure outlook to $125 billion to $145 billion, which is still the future range at Q1, not actual expenditures, nor can it be directly compared to quarterly free cash flow.
Shareholder feedback is the third tier. Dividends and buybacks both consume cash; buybacks can offset some dilution from share compensation but do not increase the company's total net profit. Q1 stock-based compensation was USD 6.032 billion, which is a non-cash expense but still involves dilution and talent cost. Q2 results should be viewed simultaneously with the buyback amount, number of diluted shares, and ending cash; EPS alone is not enough.
Capital commitments may also not have been fully paid yet. There is a time lag between signing, delivery, payment, and depreciation of data center land, equipment, and leases, so press release summaries may not be complete. After the official 10-Q emerges, lease liabilities, property equipment, capital commitments, and cash flow notes should be used to supplement the gap to avoid underestimating future payments or treating non-cash assets as free capacity.
My Q2 cash flow statement will be organized by core operating profit, operating cash flow, cash capital expenditures, finance leases, dividends and repurchases, cash, and debt. If Family of Apps' profits and cash flow are sufficient to support investment and shareholder returns, financial flexibility is more stable; If expenditures are revised upward and cash recovery slows down, the reporting period must be extended. Official results have not yet been released, so we do not predict Q2 figures nor treat full-year guidance as fact.
Legal and regulatory liabilities may also occupy liquidity, but only the formal amount added in 10-Q can be included in the cash sheet. Market-estimated fines do not pre-deduct cash. If a company issues new bonds, adjusts dividends, or changes buyback authorization, it distinguishes between the board's authorization limit and the actual quarterly payments; Authorization does not mean the buyback has been completed. Cash, debt, and commitments all use the same reporting date, avoiding combining different times into a net cash conclusion. This table also preserves year-on-year and quarter-end changes, and notes the period for each data item.Good morning, a must-read for macro views today
The market entered a "wait-and-see mode" ahead of the Fed decision, with BTC fluctuating narrowly around $64,000 and ETH leading the way with a +1.74% gain. Derivatives signals show leveraged bulls are retreating—OI fell -0.17% in the past 24 hours, and funding rates fell from yesterday's high of +0.82% to +0.01%, indicating cooling rally sentiment. Liquidation data also confirms this: long positions were liquidated at $74.7 million in 24 hours, 3.7 times the number of bears. Overall, the market is in a choppy pattern, with the direction depending on tomorrow morning's Fed rate decision.
Direction: Volatility, Confidence: Medium — Funding rate returning to neutral + bullish liquidation pressure → Short-term lack of one-sided momentum, waiting for macro catalysts.
Overall market environment
Liquidity: The US dollar index remained basically flat at $101.43, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.60% (-0.80%), and the VIX fell to $18.21 (-2.46%). The macro environment is relatively accommodative, and funding costs have decreased.
U.S. sentiment: S&P 500 (SPY) +0.24%, but Nasdaq (QQQ) -0.97%. Tech stocks are under pressure, with funds shifting from growth stocks to defensive sectors, and risk appetite is divergent.
Impact on BTC: Improved macro liquidity is positive, but weakening tech stocks may weigh on risk asset sentiment. BTC's correlation with US stocks is currently weakening, and it is more waiting for its own catalyst.
Outlook for the next 1-4 weeks: If the Fed sends a dovish signal (rate cut expectations rise), BTC could break above $65,000; but if the decision is hawkish or hints at a delay in rate cuts, BTC may retest the $62,000 support.
Good luck to us!
$SOL BTC $SOL QQQ
#FedMinutesHawkish Resolution 📊 支撑与压力位研判
$KAITO 目前交投于1.25美元附近，此前触24h高点1.2919后回踩盘整。此前币价从1.16发起一轮强劲上攻，AI叙事热度不减。技术面短期偏强，价格曾一度突破布林上轨运行，%B值达1.25，多头动能较强。
上方压力区
· 第一压力位：1.29（24小时高点，突破则延续多头趋势）
· 核心压力位：1.32—1.33（短线反抽分水岭，前期冲高回落后的套牢密集区）
· 关键阻力位：1.44—1.45（突破确认位，有效站稳上看1.52—1.62）
· 终极阻力位：1.65（更高目标位）
下方支撑区
· 第一支撑位：1.25—1.26（近期4小时前低与短线强防守）
· 核心支撑位：1.20—1.22（有效跌破1.25后的下看目标）
· 关键防守位：1.09—1.10（中期关键支撑）
· 终极支撑位：0.96—1.00（多头蓄力区间，前期突破前的筹码密集带）
🐋 链上庄家动向追踪
巨鲸动向呈现明显的分歧信号。7月24日，某质押KAITO的巨鲸/机构向Binance转入价值282万美元的KAITO，亏损达117万美元——该鲸鱼5月29日以均价2.23美元从Binance提出179万枚KAITO，期间币价下跌43%。这是高位质押者在亏损状态下割肉离场的信号。
与此形成对比的是6月底的一笔大额转账——1800万枚$KAITO （约1033万美元）被转移至一个新创建的钱包。代币仍留在新钱包中未被抛售，市场更多将其解读为战略性资产重新配置。
散户 vs 巨鲸的主导权正在发生微妙变化。鲸鱼-散户Delta数据显示，散户投资者推动了KAITO的大部分上涨——这既是短期买盘支撑，也意味着一旦情绪转向，缺乏巨鲸托底的市场可能面临更剧烈的回调。
衍生品市场方面，未平仓合约（OI）一度飙升至7088万美元，创一年来新高。周成交量增至4700万美元，增长三倍。但高杠杆也意味着如果情绪突然转变，价格波动将更为剧烈。
📈 利好因素
· 产品持续迭代：Kaito Pro已上线股票板块，可追踪3000+全球股票的情绪、价格、研报等指标，InfoFi叙事正在修复
· Kaito Katalyst上线：7月29日推出创作者营销新奖励层，项目方可按实际转化效果付费；80%奖励分配给推动实际成效的创作者
· AI赛道热度回归：社交热度显著回流，日mindshare view count从42,463升至174,768
· 质押收益可观：Stakedrop机制年化收益率约136%
· 技术面突破：已突破0.38—0.54美元长期震荡区间，布林带扩张确认波动放大
📉 利空因素
· 天量代币解锁在即：8月20日约3260万枚KAITO解锁，约占当时已释放供应量的7.63%——规模远超7月20日的约1493万美元解锁
· 巨鲸亏损出逃：质押巨鲸向交易所转入282万美元$KAITO #并亏损117万美元
· 现货卖压持续：Taker CVD数据表明卖出指令占主导，现货市场卖方持续占优
· 缺乏持续销毁机制：无通缩设计，新增流通量将持续涌入市场
· 赛道内卷严重：链上AI量化工具同质化严重，缺乏独家稳定盈利策略
· 高Beta属性：波动远大于BTC/ETH，美联储决议前后极易瞬间插针
综合来看，KAITO处于1.25附近的关键博弈点——1.25—1.26是多头最后防线，守住则有望反抽1.32—1.33；若实体跌破1.25则下看1.20—1.22甚至1.09—1.10。AI叙事与产品迭代提供中期支撑，但8月20日3260万枚天量解锁是悬在头顶的最大风险——若解锁前后巨鲸地址出现集中向交易所的充值行为，将是明确的撤离信号。#美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 Countdown to the Federal Reserve's Monetary Meeting: Bitcoin Bulls and Bears Enter a Critical Window of Debate—How to Respond Rationally to High Volatility?
On July 29, 2026, the cryptocurrency market was on the eve of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate meeting, with market sentiment highly tense. Bitcoin is fluctuating around $63,400, while Ethereum is trading at $1,874, both entering key technical battle zones. This article combines the latest market data, on-chain whale movements, and macro policy expectations to provide an in-depth analysis of the current market structure and provide investors with practical response strategies.
1. Current Market Situation: Cautious Game on the Eve of the Rate Meeting
As of 7:30 a.m. Eastern Time on July 28, 2026, Bitcoin's price was $63,408.41, down 2.98% from the previous day but up 5.54% from $60,075 a month ago. Ethereum simultaneously fell back to $1,874.19. Notably, Bitcoin has retraced about 49.7% from its all-time high of $126,198 set in October 2025, indicating the market is currently in a typical mid-term correction pattern.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading within a key range: resistance above is in the $64,600-$65,200 range, which forms a resonant resistance with the early June high of $65,800 and the 50-day moving average; Support is at $62,900-$62,500; if this support is breached, the downside could open to the $60,000 threshold. This technical structure means that breakthroughs in any direction could trigger a chain reaction.
2. Macro Focus: Uncertainty in the Fed's Policy Path
At 2 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, the Federal Reserve will announce its July interest rate decision. According to the latest federal funds futures data, the market currently expects about a 62.4% probability that rates will remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range, while a 25 basis point hike to 3.75%-4.00% is about 37.6%. This expectation has changed significantly compared to a week ago—when the probability of holding steady reached 83.4%, indicating that the market's pricing in hawkish risk is rising rapidly ahead of the decision.
Federal Reserve Chair Walsh's tough stance on inflation is the core reason for the recent cautious shift in market sentiment. Although U.S. core PCE inflation in June eased somewhat, energy prices remain under upward pressure driven by geopolitical factors. What's even more noteworthy is that within 24 hours after the Federal Reserve decision is announced, the preliminary US second-quarter GDP data will be released one after another, forming a dual window of "decision + economic data." Historical experience shows that when macro events occur intensively within 48 hours, market volatility often amplifies exponentially.
3. On-chain signals: whale differentiation and market structure evolution
Recently, on-chain data has shown complex divergence signals. On one hand, some long-dormant wallets have shown unusual activity—wallets that hadn't moved for eight years transferred about $383 million worth of Bitcoin, raising market concerns about potential selling pressure. However, a deeper analysis shows that these transfers do not directly enter exchanges but are more of custodial restructuring or OTC liquidity management, with limited short-term direct impact on the spot market.
On the other hand, institutional whales have shown signs of accumulation during the recent market correction. Tracking data shows that some large wallets continue to absorb chips in the $60,000-63,000 range, and Coinbase has seen large withdrawals to cold wallets, indicating that long-term holders are strategically allocating by exploiting price fluctuations. This pattern of "retail panic and institutional accumulation" shares similarities with historical bottom areas.
On Ethereum, as the month-end monthly moving average nears its close, the bullish and bearish tug-of-war has clearly intensified. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to be under pressure, indicating that funds are more inclined to hold Bitcoin due to their safe-haven preference. News of the Ethereum Foundation cutting its R&D budget has also put some pressure on ecosystem confidence, with $2,000 becoming a critical psychological and technical hurdle.
4. Geopolitical Risks: Spillover effects of the US-Iran situation
The ongoing tensions in the US-Iran geopolitical situation have added additional risk aversion to the market. According to the latest reports, after the U.S. military launched 13 consecutive days of airstrikes against Iran, it suspended its strikes on July 24. This evolution has a dual impact on the crypto market: on one hand, geopolitical uncertainty drives demand for safe-haven assets, theoretically benefiting Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold"; On the other hand, if the conflict escalates and energy prices surge, it could further strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance and suppress risk assets.
Historical backtesting shows that during periods of geopolitical conflict and monetary policy tightening, the crypto market often exhibits high volatility and low trends, with prices easily driven by short-term news and causing sharp fluctuations.
5. Operational Strategy: Protect your principal in a highly volatile environment
Facing the current highly uncertain market environment, the following strategies offer practical reference value:
First, strictly control position sizes and refuse heavy positions betting on direction. On the night of the interest rate meeting, the market is prone to a "double kill" of bulls and bears, with high-leverage positions facing the risk of liquidation amid sharp fluctuations. It is recommended to keep risk exposure per trade within 2% of total funds to ensure that even misjudgments do not cause fatal damage to the overall account.
Second, avoid blind operations before the message is realized. Before the rate decision and Powell's speech, market liquidity tends to thin, bid-ask spreads widen, and slippage risk rises significantly. At this time, chasing rises and selling lows is extremely cost-effective, so holding a short position and waiting is a more rational choice.
Third, wait for signal confirmation before joining the trend. The first hour after news is released usually involves a large amount of emotional trading. It is recommended to observe the market's initial reaction and wait for clear direction and trading volume signals before intervening. If Bitcoin holds above $65,200 with increased volume, it can be seen as a short-term bullish signal; Conversely, if it falls below $62,500 and cannot be quickly recovered, caution should be directed toward further downside risks.
Fourth, set strict stop-loss measures and refuse to take on orders. In high-volatility environments, the mindset of "getting stuck and waiting for your breakeven" mentality is extremely dangerous. It is recommended to set a clear stop-loss level for each trade, execute decisively once triggered, and keep funds for the next certainty opportunity. #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver their #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期 tonight, with storage stocks experiencing sharp volatility $BTC $ETH $SNDK BITCOIN KEEPS RUNNING THE SAME TRAP, AND IT IS SETTING UP AGAIN.
It is called the Power of Three. Accumulate, manipulate, distribute.
Price goes sideways to build up orders. Then it fakes a move higher to trap the buyers. Then it drops into a new low.
That exact sequence has printed four times since November. Every single time, one level lower.
Price is $64,347 now, sitting in another range.
If it runs the pattern again, the next move is a fake pump followed by a drop toward the $50,000 zone.
History does not have to repeat. But so far it has not missed.
$BTC The big cake is $64,255, up 1.12% in 24 hours. It looks like a lifeline, but everyone knows—**this lousy place, a 1% increase is basically New Year's. **
Funding rate? I'm not watching anymore—watching makes me want to cry even more.
BTC OI？ I'm not watching, I'm going to smash my phone if I do.
---
💀 **Market Trends? The market is a grave. **
The OKX sector rose 9 and fell 5, with AEON rising the most at +5.88% and XSNDK dropping the worst at -7.07%.
You think it's a bottom-fishing opportunity? **Bottom-fishing and halfway up the mountain is the fate of old chives. **
1. **AEON** — Yesterday, I went all-in on a full position, betting that it would go against the trend to push the market. Now there was a tiny bit of surplus, but inside he was extremely anxious. **Take profit at $0.118, stop loss at $0.102**, either go to the sky or go down.
2. **XSNDK** — This stock dropped 7.7% in 24 hours. I reversed and opened a 3x short. **When it dropped to $1004, I closed the stock**. A rebound? Rebound means giving you a chance to get on board and then keep selling.
---
🔥 **News side? All thunder. **
• Crypto.com can I buy tickets with Emirates now? Positive? **Good news is nothing; all retail investors' money has been taken by institutions. **
• Has Binance been removed from the EU Google Play? **The regulatory fist has finally fallen on CEXs. **
• Hungary grants MiCA licenses? **Europe has started to absorb and tighten its holdings, and in the future, the chives won't even have a place to swim naked. **
---
**The last harsh words:**
This market isn't about who earns more, but about who survives the longest.
**Either you wait for the bull market, or the bull market will collect your body. **$ZEC
Older narratives tend to have sudden bursts of strength followed by long periods of quiet.
Catching the transition from accumulation to mark-up requires strict discipline.
EP
458.00 - 460.00
TP
468.00
480.00
495.00
SL
445.00
Holding above this immediate area is crucial for the bullish case to remain intact. A daily close below would suggest further distribution, pulling me out of the trade entirely.
Let's go $ZEC
#FedRateDecision
#BigTechEarningsNight What exactly is the purpose of Bitcoin halving?
1. Simply put, the halving is Bitcoin's once-in-four-years "shrinking cheat rate."
Previously, new coins were mined daily, but when the supply was halved, it was cut in half.
Reduced output theoretically means scarcer goods, but in the long run, it's definitely positive. This logic hasn't changed for over a decade.
But! It used to work, but now it's weaker.
In the early days, the market was small, and a little capital could boost the market; halving = a sure bull market.
Currently, Bitcoin is enormous in scale and heavily held by institutions; the halving alone is no longer enough to drive a super bull market.
2. The most direct real-world impact of the halving: miners are forced to dump their shares wildly.
Mining profits are cut in half, while electricity and machine costs remain unchanged.
In bear and volatile markets, miners have to sell coins daily to cash out to avoid losing money.
This is also why after the 2024 halving, prices have been falling steadily. Many people don't understand that it's actually because miners are under heavy selling pressure.
3. The real pace of the halving is: speculate on expectations in advance, then sell as soon as they land.
The crypto world is always about speculating on the future.
The year before the halving, everyone knew good news was coming, funds rushed in early, and the market surged sharply.
When the halving is implemented and the good news is fully realized, smart funds will flee, retail investors will take over, and then the market will start to shake out from the market.
This round is a perfect replica: surging before the halving, then continuing to trap players after the halving.
4. The biggest truth now: halving gives way to the Fed, liquidity calls the shots.
In the past, when the crypto world was playing on its own, halving was the top priority.
Now it is fully tied to US stocks, the US dollar, and institutional funds.
The Fed refuses to cut rates, the dollar is strong, and tech stocks are selling valuations—no matter how good the halving is, it's all in vain.
The current market logic is simple:
Liquidity is loose, halving is the icing on the cake;
Liquidity is tight, and the halving immediately fails.
5. The halving has a much greater impact on altcoins than on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin halving itself rises slowly, steadily, and is a pain.
But all the small coins, knockoffs, and local dogs are all eating with half the mood.
When the bull market hits, altcoins double much faster than BTC.
During bear markets, knockoffs crashed so badly that they lost all their kin.
So during the halving cycle, all speculative opportunities are in small coins, and for stable trading, only Bitcoin is the focus.
6. Give a most honest summary
The halving is definitely a long-term positive and will not be wasted.
But short-term trading is completely unreliable; right now, macro, US stocks, and liquidity dominate.
From now on, don't blindly believe in 'halving will make you a big seller',
The current real market is: halving sets the base, liquidity ignites, and if one is missing, it won't rise.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver their data tonight. #美联储即将公布利率决议 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations I really felt a sense of déjà vu. Today's rise on the Robinhood network takes me back to the past. It's practically a bull.
The meme coin bull market in 2024,
The Metaverse bull market that occurred in 2022,
The DeFi bull market of 2020 is exactly the same as it is happening.
Today, the only place where cryptocurrency investors can make money is through the Robinhood ecosystem. All the capital in the market and new capital entering the market flowed there. Up to today, if you haven't gone in yet, haven't missed anything, don't be sad. We are still at a very early stage of this trend.
Finally, I share whatever I see during this process. This is the reason for my sense of déjà vu;
In 2021, $Sol rose from $1 to $250. A massive ecosystem has been formed, meme culture has been established, and projects like $BONK, $PENGU, and $WIF in the Solana ecosystem have grown hundreds of times.
During the same period, $BNB rose from $1 to $690, with thousands of projects joining the ecosystem. Projects like $CAKE and $FLOKI have experienced hundreds of times increases.
Today, these examples are actually happening on Robinhood, and in just two weeks, they have proven it. Price lies. Volume doesn’t. Most traders chase breakouts. By then, smart money is already in. $LAB , $BSB , $ALLO proved it. Volume ticked up days before price moved. That’s quiet accumulation — boring until it explodes. Now look at the other side. $BEAT’s volume has been bleeding for days. Price followed right after. Rising Volume: $JELLYJELLY • $OPG • $SLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP Falling Volume: $BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $SPACE • $VIRTUAL • $MEGA Headlines chase price. Volume war$OKB
Exchange tokens often carve out their own path regardless of the broader market.
I like targeting these tight consolidations when everyone else is distracted by the majors.
EP
84.60 - 84.90
TP
86.50
88.00
90.50
SL
82.50
A clean break from this compression could trigger some decent momentum. Just watching how the bids stack up if we get a quick flush first.
Let's go $OKB
#FedRateDecision
#BigTechEarningsNight 昨晚美股AI交易再遭重挫，存储芯片等AI硬件板块领跌。
过去一个月，我一直在反复提示风险：
6月30日，大胆断言：存储板块这波大概率阶段性见顶，深度回调或将到来。
7月2日，再次预警：美股AI半导体板块回调风险加剧，大空头Michael Burry重仓做空半导体。
7月10日，爆论重申：继续维持存储板块短期阶段性见顶的判断。
7月21日，明确指出：昨夜存储板块小幅反弹，只是反弹，不是反转。
但凡你听进去一次，现在也不会因为行情下跌而焦虑！
说这些，不是为了炫耀自己预测有多神准，
而是我始终相信一个最朴素的道理：
别人恐惧时贪婪，别人贪婪时恐惧。
当我听到满屏都在讲“韩国女孩最美好的夏天”时，
心里只有一个念头：完了！
当人人都觉得赚钱像喝水一样简单，市场的调整，就不远了。
$MU $AEON As a newly listed coin on exchanges, it has been very active lately, hitting a low of 0.07334 before rebounding, reaching a intraday high of 0.11583, currently priced at 0.10291, with a single-day gain of 13.79% and a 24-hour turnover close to 90 million USDT. The direct driver of this rebound was the official announcement by South Korea's Bithumb exchange about the upcoming listing of AEON. Many retail investors, seeing the positive news from new launches + short-term gains, have begun to wonder what characteristics this newly issued token has, whether it can be held long-term for strategic planning, and whether its future prospects are worth looking forward to. A comprehensive analysis of IPO events, new coin trading logic, and market capital behavior. I. Core Event Background for This Rise 1. South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb officially announces launch, bringing in regional capital inflow. Bithumb is one of Korea's top crypto trading platforms by traffic, and local retail investors naturally have a habit of speculating on new coins listed on exchanges. After the official listing announcement was released, some Korean speculative funds entered early, directly driving prices up quickly and creating a strong rebound in the market, which was the most direct catalyst for this round of rally. In the history of the crypto world, many new coins would use the Korean exchange to complete a short-term rally, but after the hype faded, most would return to their original range. 2. Large market large-scale altcoins plunge collectively, funds seek safe haven with small-cap new coins arbitrage. Currently, established second-tier altcoins are collectively experiencing double-digit plunge, and funds are notMy sniper scope is locked onto ZEC's supply chain—that camouflage point called Orchard, which has been hiding a muted detonator that can print unlimited rounds since 2022. The team only measured changes in wind speed at the end of May and found it could forge counterfeit coins without leaving ballistic traces through zero-knowledge circuit defects. Privacy design turns historical attacks into unreproducible shooting data—you can't return which gun fired the atomic bomb, nor prove that the magazine ever leaked. ZEC once dropped by half, but the market was just waiting for a real bullet.
The Ironwood hard fork activated at block 3428,143, like a precise sight reset. It closed the entrance to the old pool's ammunition depot and installed a speed-limiting turnstile—each time you exit, you had to check the magazines. ZEC's supply was finally chambered for the first time, no longer the kind of dud pack where you could never guess how many bullets remained. I adjusted the wind bias compensation and observed the linkage depth of this target on $XSKHY.
The crypto financial system has never lacked such long-standing bugs—no one knows if they've ever been pulled in the dark. But the real ace doesn't shoot without seeing the profit and loss ratio. The chain of evidence is still empty, and the repair has already been loaded. I'll put away my gun and wait for the next sniper window.#HYPE遭大额解押减持, a 10% drop in one week
HYPE fell 10% this week, dropping from 61 to around 55. The trigger was straightforward—a bunch of institutions were lining up to unlock it.
A week ago, Multicoin Capital transferred 395,000 HYPE tokens to Coinbase, worth 37 million, and also applied for more staking redemptions. After the 7-day waiting period ended, 1.97 million HYPE ($108 million) successfully exited staking. Of these, 86,000 coins ($4.78 million) were directly transferred to Coinbase Prime three hours ago. These tokens were bought five months ago through Galaxy Digital OTC for about $30. Paradigm hasn't been idle either; on July 24, 2.92 million HYPE tokens were unstaked, worth about $170 million. Combined, the two companies released nearly $300 million worth of tokens just by unstaking them.
Multicoin partner Tushar Jain came forward to explain, saying this is wallet rotation, not a sell-off. But the market isn't foolish—releasing staking itself doesn't necessarily mean selling immediately, but once the 7-day waiting period ends, the coin can move. And they had already transferred coins to Coinbase a week ago. They say they're not selling, but their hands are moving toward the exchange. The signal itself is enough to make the market tense.
The price fell from 61 to 55, a 10% decrease over the week. The daily RSI has fallen below 50, with the price below the 26-day and 50-day EMAs. The 4-hour MACD death cross confirms the bearish structure, with EMA50 at 58.45 and EMA200 at 62.15 both facing resistance above. The 55 level is the Fibonacci 50% retracement level plus the previous demand zone. The 200-day moving average below is around 50, which is the last line of defense. ETFs are also bleeding, recording their first weekly net outflow of $7.26 million in the week of July 17, ending a nine-week inflow streak.
Interestingly, at the same time as the institutional unlocking was conducted, an address suspected to be a16z staked 2.785 million HYPE tokens through 20 wallets, worth about 164 million yuan. Another whale-linked wallet staked 2.93 million tokens in the past 24 hours. This morning, a16z-related entities withdrew another 132,000 HYPE tokens from major exchanges, with an average price of $55.54, valued at $7.335 million. Since July 15, the same address has transferred a total of 398,000 tokens, about $24.89 million, to exchanges. On one hand, unlocking, staking, moving to exchanges, and withdrawing from exchanges.
The protocol itself is still making money. Open interest stood at $11.45 billion, a new annual high. The 24-hour perpetual contract trading volume exceeds 9.29 billion, generating about 2.2 million in daily fees and 1.51 million in protocol revenue. A total of 47.3 million HYPE tokens have been burned, accounting for 4.73% of the total supply. The platform injects 99% of spot and perpetual trading fees into the fund to buy back HYPE.
The 55 position is crucial. If it falls below 50, it might go to 50; if you hold on, it's a golden pit. Institutions are unlocking, whales are staking, both sides are betting. Different directions, but both spent real money.After this round, I stopped shorting ETH and switched to shorting BTC 🔄
Previously, using ETH as collateral to obtain WBETH as margin and opening the same number of perpetual short positions offered three major benefits:
1️⃣ The effect is equivalent to directly shorting spot ETH, with no leverage or liquidation lines
2️⃣ No loss of ETH staking interest while benefiting from the funding rates paid by long positions
3️⃣ The exchange only needs to hold a small amount of ETH as collateral, reducing the risk of running off or being hacked
Now, the change is to use WBETH as collateral, and after converting to the exchange rate, short the same amount of BTC spot 📉
The reason is clear:
MSTR is unlikely to continue buying BTC long-term
Meanwhile, Bitmine continues to accumulate ETH
Along with the development of the RWA track
This bear market may repeat history—BTC and ETH will not bottom out simultaneously
Last time:
ETH bottomed on 2022/6/18, price 882, BTC 17622, exchange rate 0.0500
BTC bottomed on 2022/11/21, ETH 1080, BTC 15476, exchange rate 0.0698
This round may see ETH bottom at 2026/6/6, priced at 1506
Therefore, it makes more sense to turn to shorting BTC afterward
Final technical note: BTC has broken below the ascending channel 📉 [Figure 1]
ETH remains at the lower edge 📈 of the ascending channel [Figure 2]In the same storage sector, SK Hynix and Micron showed strong resilience, with SanDisk's January nearly halved. Where is the gap?
During the entire storage sector's pullback phase, the gap between individual stocks was magnified infinitely, with the core difference being whether the business structure aligns with the rigid AI needs.
SK Hynix and Micron have allocated most of their production capacity to HBM high-bandwidth memory and server-specific storage chips, signing long-term supply agreements lasting 3 to 5 years with major cloud providers. Even if the market worries about long-term overcapacity, massive long-term contract orders can firmly lock in future revenue, with funds always supporting the decline and controllable drawdowns.
SanDisk's revenue mostly relies on PC and mobile phone flash storage and USB drives, while sales of mobile digital products have shrunk year after year. With no new demand to support it, it cannot benefit from the AI computing power dividend. Previously, the stock price surge was purely built by speculation bubbles following the sector. Once the market reversed, without fundamentals to support the bottom, the downward channel fully opened, and the cumulative drop in July directly exceeded 50%.
Going forward, differentiation in niche sectors will become the norm. Stock selection should prioritize the essential business needs, and targets that rely solely on sector trends have very poor risk resistance.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX 📊 Support and resistance level assessment
$BEAT Recently rebounded strongly from the low of $2.40, surged from 2.434 to 3.48 within 24 hours before pulling back, currently consolidating near the high of 3.63-3.78. Trading volume reached $118 million, tripling from the previous day.
Upper resistance zone
· First resistance level: 3.72 (key resistance at the 4-hour level; a breakout with increased volume will accelerate the uptrend)
· Core resistance level: 3.94—4.00 (the first target range for bulls, with $4 as a key psychological level)
· Key resistance levels: 4.08—4.29 (second target and near the 4-hour Bollinger band)
· Ultimate resistance: 9.34 (all-time high, set in mid-June)
Below the support zone
· First support level: 3.48—3.65 (recent pullback lows and concentrated buying order zone)
· Core support levels: 3.20—3.39 (short-term pullback entry range; if broken, the trend weakens)
· Key Defensive Position: 3.00 (Bullish chips hold firm defense; previously pulled back but not broken this position)
· Ultimate support zone: 2.38–2.42 (MA99 support; if broken, it will test 2.20-2.25 or even 2.00-2.05)
🐋 On-chain market maker movement tracking
The return of whales has been the core driving force behind the recent rebound. After BEAT fell below $3, high-net-worth investors made a strong comeback to accumulate shares. A new wallet withdraws 500,000 $BEAT (about $1.36 million) from Gate.io; Another whale address accumulated over 473,000 BEAT (about $1.1 million) through repeated withdrawals from Gate.io. The exchange experienced a wave of large withdrawals—withdrawing $4.1 million from Gate.io and $1 million from MEXC. Just a few days ago, BEAT was still flowing into exchanges, marking a shift in market sentiment from selling to accumulation.
The market delta has turned positive from negative to 12.2k, indicating strong buying pressure. The buy order depth ratio reached 1.82, with dense orders around 3.65, indicating a clear intent of funds to support the bottom.
The chip distribution shows healthy characteristics. The whale holdings did not experience a monopolistic surge; on the contrary, small and medium-sized addresses showed frequent and sustained growth over the past 30 days, mostly medium- to long-term holders, with a 30-day retention rate as high as 74.39%. This is a project driven by retail investor consensus, with shares widely distributed in the community's hands rather than concentrated in a handful of whales, making the upward consensus more resilient.
In derivatives, open interest remains stable, with a funding rate of 0.005% considered normal and no short squeeze signals. The 1-hour RSI reached 67, close to the overbought zone, but deep buying continued to support the price.
📈 Positive factors
· Whales make a strong comeback to accumulate shares: exchanges shift from net outflows to net inflows, and the withdrawal wave indicates that selling forces are exhausted
· On-chain chip structure is healthy: small and medium-sized addresses continue to increase holdings with high retention rates, not a whale-dominated pull
· The deflationary mechanism continues to operate: over 17.04 million BEAT tokens have been burned on the project side, generating weekly revenue of 1.84 million USDT
· AI Track Heat Returns: As a leading AI entertainment blockchain, BEAT is experiencing an emotional premium
· With a weekly gain of 50%, it was listed as one of the most noteworthy top altcoins in the last week of July
· The MACD maintains an upward trajectory at 0.19, and the RSI has risen to 60, confirming trend strength
· The 4-hour trend is upward, with 17% of the upper Bollinger band still in the air
· The FIFA World Cup 2026 event is underway, with the USDC prize pool linked to AI-generated national anthem submissions
📉 Bearish factors
· August 1st Massive Token Unlock: 21.25 million BEAT (about $81.66 million) will enter the market
· Historical unlocks often lead to sharp drops, and this time, the risk cannot be ignored
· Within 24 hours, it has pulled back from the 3.48 high, with the long upper shadow showing a typical upward pull-off trend
· Trading volume fell by 20%, and market activity decreased
· The 1-hour MACD histogram is shrinking, and short-term momentum is weakening
· With a market value of only about $1.12 billion, liquidity is relatively limited, and large orders can easily trigger sharp fluctuations
· Narratives rely on concept-driven approaches, and practical application still needs to be verified
· In the previous week, it plunged 24% to a low of $2.4, showing extreme volatility
Overall, driven by the whale's return, $BEAT has strongly rebounded from $2.4 to above $3.6. On-chain funds shifting from outflows to inflows is a positive signal, and a healthy chip distribution provides resilience for the rise. But on August 1, the $81.66 million unlock was like the sword of Damocles hanging overhead. 3.72 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears—a high-volume breakout could target 3.94-4.00 or even 4.29; if 3.48 is breached, it could pull back to 3.20-3.00. The next 72 hours will determine the direction, with a focus on whale movements and trading volume changes before and after the unlock. #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations Brothers, there are only five hours left until the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, but the market is still ridiculously divided over whether to raise rates—65% are betting on no rate hikes, 35% are betting on a rate hike. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, directly pointed out this anomaly: usually, on the eve of a monetary policy meeting, the futures market prices the outcome to a high degree of consensus, but this time it was a rare "outlier-level" divergence in recent years. His personal judgment is clear: keep interest rates unchanged, but Walsh will take a hawkish stance to keep market balance. Script prediction: coin prices will rise first (triggering short sellers) →then (booming bulls). This is basically a repeat of the FOMC scenario from August 2024 and February 2025: rates remain unchanged but the rhetoric leans hawkish, and after the market pulse surges, hawkish expectations quickly knock it back to square one. In past markets, Bitcoin has declined after the last eight FOMC meetings—a phenomenon often referred to by the crypto community as the "FOMC curse." What does this script mean? The bears die first (short positions get sold), then the bulls die again (long positions get blown down). Jiang Zhuo'er's judgment is clear: the market will undergo a two-way cleanup in the short term. In theory, this "rise first, then fall" scenario means both bulls and bears will face an extreme stress test. At this unprecedented point of divergence, each side has nearly a 40% chance of error—the question isn't "will it explode," but "which side will explode first, then which side?" BTC is currently consolidating around $64,100, with approximately $611 million in net liquidations across the network and $511 million in long liquidations in the past 24 hours. If "first."#美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动
Apple's market value once again surpasses Nvidia's; why funds are abandoning AI to embrace stable consumer leaders
In just a few days, the global corporate market value rankings have swapped, essentially reflecting a broad rise in risk-averse preferences amid a volatile environment.
On the eve of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, everyone fears the valuation contraction caused by prolonged high interest rates, with strong demand to cash out AI computing power assets that have surged earlier. Nvidia, deeply rooted in data center chips, heavily depends on cloud providers' computing power procurement plans. Once major companies cut spending, revenue growth immediately faces obstacles, and valuations naturally continue to decline.
In contrast, Apple's business model has maximum tolerance; it generates massive operating cash flow every year continuously, with regular share buybacks consistently supporting its stock price. Its performance does not fluctuate sharply with the tech cycle. Its AI strategy opts for a lightweight edge approach, avoiding huge investments in building large computing centers, thus sidestepping the current trap of excessive capital expenditure. Apple Intelligence steadily rolls out based on over a billion end devices, with a smooth, bubble-free realization process.
In a volatile downward market, certainty is always more favored by capital than growth flexibility. As long as the macro risk-averse atmosphere does not dissipate, Apple's strong position is hard to break. Bitcoin has become a vassal of US stocks, and the four-year halving bull market pattern has completely failed?
Old crypto players can clearly feel the changes. In earlier years, Bitcoin's price movements were completely independent of US stocks, and during market crashes, it could still rise against the trend thanks to safe-haven properties. Since the large-scale issuance of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the full entry of Wall Street hedge funds, the two have been tightly linked, with their correlation remaining high for a long time.
Now, with a slight pullback in the Nasdaq, BTC and ETH are quickly dragged down. Coupled with dozens of times leverage in the futures market, the decline far exceeds that of US stocks, leading to frequent large-scale chain liquidations. Many people question this, believing that the four-year halving cycle that has been in place for years can no longer dominate the price trend.
But objectively speaking, the underlying value logic of halving has not disappeared; it is only temporarily suppressed by dollar liquidity. Federal Reserve interest rate policies and U.S. stock risk appetite have become short-term dominant factors; Once the rate-cutting cycle fully unfolds and the dollar's purchasing power continues to weaken, combined with the deflationary effect from the halving, Bitcoin will gradually emerge from independent trading.
In the next two or three months, it's still important to keep pace with US stocks; long-term positioning is more suitable for relying on halving cycle planning.
#美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations Reviewing the recent crash of Korean storage stocks, compared to the LUNA crash back then, the core is highly consistent:
1️⃣ Core Entities: All are South Korean asset defaults
2️⃣ Collapse prerequisites: Perfect and invincible narrative, nationwide FOMO
3️⃣ Market Structure: Retail investors are aggressively holding high-leverage positions
4️⃣ Downward mode: Confidence collapses instantly, triggering an endless downward spiral
5️⃣ Risk level: Highly concentrated targets, triggering systemic market shocks
$SKHYNIX $SPCX $SNDK
History always rhymes, and bubbles are no exception.Has the AI bull bubble burst? Computing power and storage have plummeted one after another, while earnings reports have been sold off
Based on my long-term review of the market, the overall foundation for the AI bull market hasn't completely collapsed, but the valuation bubble that was purely hyped in the past two years has already been largely burst.
In the past two years, the market only dreamed of unlimited demand for AI. No matter how much money companies invest or whether profits are realized, computing chips and storage hardware have skyrocketed, and doubling stock prices has become the norm. But now, the criteria for evaluating funds have completely changed. Endlessly burning money to build computing data centers is no longer accepted. Whenever cloud providers raise their capital expenditure plans, their stock prices immediately come under pressure and fall—Google is the most direct example.
The entire industry chain is particularly prominent. In the offline spot market, HBM memory and enterprise-grade hard drive capacity have been locked in by cloud companies until after 2028, and physical demand remains strong; The secondary market, however, anticipated that large-scale capacity expansion in 2027 would trigger overcapacity, continuously cashing out at high prices.
The sector has long been polarized: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, holding HBM orders and binding server computing power, have strong resistance to declines; SanDisk, which focuses on consumer USB drives and regular flash storage, lacked AI core support, causing its stock price to nearly halve in just one month.
It cannot be called the start of a full-blown bear market; it can only be declared the end of the mindless broad rally. Only leading companies that can convert computing power investment into stable profits can continue to strengthen, while small and mid-cap marginal stocks will only keep fluctuating and weakening. #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations #FederalReserveRateDecisionComingUp
How much will it affect BTC? After reading these points, no need to stay up all night
The Federal Reserve decision lands at 2 AM. No need to watch the entire press conference; just grasp the core logic — currently, BTC's fundamentals are "ETF funds providing support + macro interest rate pressure." The decision will only change short-term volatility rhythm, not the mid-term pattern.
1. The most practical judgment first
It's hard for this decision to trigger a one-sided big move; most likely, it will still fluctuate within a range:
- Downside: Since the June bottom test, BTC ETFs under BlackRock and Fidelity have seen continuous net inflows. Institutions are quietly accumulating at low levels, so a deep drop has strong support;
- Upside: The high interest rate environment hasn't fundamentally changed, incremental funds are insufficient, and without easing signals, breaking through resistance above is difficult.
2. Three possible outcomes and corresponding crypto market moves for $BTC and $ETH
1. Neutral to hawkish (most likely)
No rate hike, but keep the option open with tough talk.
→ BTC will dip slightly, which is an emotional sell-off. This dip is a window for phased accumulation, no need to panic.
2. Marginally dovish
Softer wording, acknowledging inflation pressure easing.
→ Triggers a rebound, potentially breaking recent range, but don’t expect a direct bull run. Take profits at resistance.
3. Unexpected rate hike (low probability)
Direct 25BP hike.
→ Short-term sharp spike down, a black swan shock. Leveraged traders will reduce positions immediately to hedge; spot holders shouldn’t blindly sell. After emotions settle, recovery will follow.
3. Practical reminders for crypto friends
1. BTC and ETH futures traders should reduce leverage tonight; don’t gamble overnight. Flash crashes and liquidations can happen in minutes;
2. Spot long-term holders should stick to their plans. As long as the halving cycle and institutional allocation logic remain intact, don’t react to daily price swings;
3. Those wanting to enter the market shouldn’t rush to bottom-fish. Wait for the decision to land and the trend to stabilize, then buy in phases. Buying with certainty is more important than catching the absolute bottom. $BTC ETFs saw four consecutive outflows, $ETH saw inflows for two consecutive days, showing polarized trends
Let's look at the numbers first.
July 27–28,
BTC spot ETFs had a total net outflow of $61.3 million;
ETH spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $21.1 million. Looking at just the past two days, ETH's capital performance has clearly been stronger.
But if you extend the window to July 23, 24, 27, and 28:
BTC ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $526.5 million, marking four consecutive trading days of negative losses;
ETH ETFs still saw a net outflow of $23.3 million over four days, though they have only turned positive in the last two days.
Is this "institutions fully swapping BTC into ETH"? Or is it that BTC is under more obvious redemption pressure, and ETH is experiencing short-term relative support?
ETF capital flows reflect the net creation and redemption of fund units, not a complete map of all institutional holdings. To confirm the rotation, at least three things need to be seen:
ETH inflows continue and amplify
ETH/BTC remained relatively strong, confirmed by price and trading volume
Even after the FOMC took effect, BTC flows still cannot be restored.
My current conclusion: funds are diverging, and the trend has yet to be confirmed. Rather than chasing the simple narrative of "BTC loses, ETH wins," it's better to continue watching whether capital flows form continuity. #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will hand over their results tonight
AI Earnings Night: The crypto market sits on the judging panel for the first time
Tonight, three AI giants will submit their papers simultaneously. After the market for Microsoft and Meta, Amazon followed suit. Alphabet has already been hit by capital expenditure hikes, and the Nasdaq 100 is undergoing a technical correction. So tonight's three financial reports are not just answering questions—they themselves define the issues.
Tonight, they answer the same question: Is AI investment an uncashable forward check, or a long-term business already locked in?
The last person to answer this way was SK Hynix. After the earnings report, the stock price fell first, and at the conference call it added "long-term agreements are usually locked in five years," signaling the stock price turned positive. The market doesn't ignore explanations; it only listens to one explanation—"You can clearly tell what will happen five years from now."
Tonight, the answers from these three people are not just for Wall Street. This is for the pricing system of all "computing power assets." AI chips, data centers, cloud services, computing power protocols, mining machines—they all share the same value logic: Is computing power an asset that can be locked and priced long-term? The logic behind the rise and fall of AI hardware stocks over the past year is essentially voting on different answers to this question. The wording Microsoft and Meta use tonight will directly determine the direction of the vote next quarter.
For the crypto market, tonight is the first time sitting on the judging panel.
Traditional markets are waiting for earnings reports to answer "When will AI make money?" While crypto markets have been answering another question since day one: "Is anyone using this thing?" "The number of addresses, transaction volume, and protocol revenue are its real-time financial reports. Traditional financial reports have a 90-day lag, with on-chain data updated every minute. While Wall Street used data from 90 days ago to judge "AI has a future," the crypto market had already priced in real-time data.
It's not a matter of who is right or wrong. It's a matter of two different time scales.
Capital expenditure is a gamble three years from now, financial reports are the closing of the past 90 days, and on-chain data is the temperature at this very moment.
Three time scales overlap tonight.
If all three companies' capital expenditure guidance remains high, the long-term narrative of AI infrastructure will be endorsed. But the stock price may remain under pressure—because Alphabet has already demonstrated: the market currently does not reward those who spend money. If capital expenditure increases combined with vague return timelines, it will fall first. This isn't because of AI demand; it's because the valuation transition period isn't over yet.
If any one company lowers its guidance, the chain reaction in AI hardware stocks will be even more worth watching than the earnings report itself. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, storage, and NVIDIA lines have been repriced, and projects in the crypto market tied to the "computing power narrative"—decentralized computing protocols, AI agent infrastructure, miner-related assets—will passively accept an adjusted valuation anchor.
Tonight's ledger—you read yours, I read mine.
But the difference between 90 days and 1 minute will eventually be discovered by the market.
Time will be on the side of higher-frequency pricing. In this game, SK Hynix made a seemingly clever discarded piece, but it made their opponents sense a trap in the middle game.
Financial reports are like generals on the record book, with a 557% profit increase like a double elephant killing the king—flashy but not fully successful. That expected gap of 4.5 trillion won is a "blank" move on the chessboard, causing the market to suddenly lose its rhythm amid a winning momentum. But true strategists do not panic over immediate gains or losses: mass shipments of HBM4 are like a rear wing advancing five steps ahead, turning a five-year supply contract into an ironclad fortress. The opponent (spot market) thought they had caught a "missed move" in the situation, unaware that they were actively giving up the e4 pawn in exchange for the remaining Deep Troops left after the D line was half-open.
The lever pawn XSOXL now lands on the cross-firepoint of white and black squares. Samsung's roughly 6% rebound was like a timely elephant swap—seemingly trading pieces, but actually clearing the c1-h6 diagonal line. When SK Hynix management said "AI spending won't slow down," they were actually announcing that they had already seen through the entire midgame to endgame sequence. Those analysts who focus on HBM's lower weight than their peers are simply obsessed with local tactical combinations and neglect the entire King's Wing battle chain structure.
As for that single-day 4% bullish candlestick? It was just a probing maneuver before the endgame. A true player always pushes the rook deep into the seventh horizontal line when the opponent thinks the rhythm is "slowing." #SKHynixRecordMiss #英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt
I'm Cige, and NVIDIA and Google are using their own credits to endorse AI data center debt.
Nvidia negotiated to provide OpenAI with about $250 billion in financial guarantees to support SoftBank's 10-giga-watt data center project in Ohio, with total project costs possibly exceeding $500 billion. Google has agreed to pay up to $44 billion in third-party data center lease payments in the event of tenant defaults, a significant increase from the previous $6.5 billion.
The supplier financing chain of "investing in customers, binding orders, re-guaranteeing debts" is getting longer and longer. Chip giants use their own creditworthiness to endorse customers' data center debts, and the inflation of off-balance-sheet commitments is becoming one of the main focuses of tech giants' earnings seasons.
The market's reaction to this was a direct sell-off. The increasingly long AI infrastructure financing chain essentially packages forward AI demand into debt and sells it to the market. If AI demand falls short of expectations, credit risks along the entire chain will be concentratedly exposed. Before the U.S. market opened, tech stocks were collectively under pressure, as the market was pricing in this credit expansion.
The impact on BTC is twofold. In the short term, tech stocks' concerns about AI financing models will suppress risk appetite, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, may be dragged down. Tech stocks fell, and the crypto market was under pressure simultaneously. But in the medium term, capital spending on AI infrastructure is still accelerating: Nvidia's $250 billion and Google's $44 billion are burning fiat credit and reinforcing BTC's narrative as a non-sovereign asset. Every time this magnitude of debt expands, it serves as a reminder to the market where the boundaries of dollar credit lie.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $BTC Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic released a report on July 29: The ruble stablecoin A7A5, backed by Russian banks, completed over $100 billion in cross-border transfers in its first year of launch, with its core purpose being to evade Western sanctions; After joint sanctions from the US, UK, and EU were implemented, the token's value plummeted by 96%. Although the A7A5 smart contract can still transfer funds normally, the entire underlying network has been placed on the sanctions list. Exchanges rely on on-chain analysis tools to accurately identify related fund flows, but related assets face interception and freezing risks, causing deposit/withdrawal and exchange channels to be basically paralyzed. 🚨 Conflict: Many people have a misconception: as long as the contract is not closed, the token will always be usable! The A7A5 case shatters all illusions. Even if the public chain code cannot be shut down, fiat channels, exchange liquidity, and clearing channels are all controlled by centralized service providers. In the context of geopolitical sanctions, tokens that focus on "resistance to censorship and circumventing regulation" carry extremely high risks. This news will not directly impact BTC and ETH markets, but it will continue to strengthen expectations of global crypto regulation and tightening on-chain risk controls, which will affect institutional capital entry sentiment in the medium to long term! I. In-depth Analysis of the Core of the Event 1. Project Background A7A5 was indirectly supported and issued by the sanctioned Russian state-owned bank Promsvyaz Bank (PSB), pegged to the ruble. Its original design goal was to bypass SWIFT and cross-border sanctions between Europe and the US, serving cross-border capital flows for Russian enterprises; In its initial launch, it relies on off-exchange and regional exchanges to achieve hundreds of billions in capital circulation. 2. The core logic of the collapse#财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will hand over their results tonight
Tonight, the US stock market is facing a true "AI test."
The three tech giants—Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon—will successively release their latest earnings, and the market's main concern is no longer how much money they have made, but whether AI can continue to support high valuations.
Microsoft reviews the progress of Azure cloud business and Copilot commercialization; Meta is watching whether its advertising business can cover the growing AI capital expenditure; Amazon will have to wait and see how fast AWS grows and whether generative AI starts to generate revenue.
For the crypto world, the impact of these three financial reports may be greater than many people imagine.
If the three companies exceed expectations and continue to raise AI investment, market risk appetite is likely to rebound. AI concept tokens such as FET, TAO, and RENDER may attract capital attention, and BTC and ETH are also likely to benefit from improved overall sentiment.
However, if the earnings report falls short of expectations, or if capital expenditure continues to grow sharply without profits being realized, the market may renew concerns about AI valuations being overvalued, putting pressure on tech stocks, and possibly seeing a short-term correction in the crypto market.
Tonight, it's not just about the three companies delivering their report cards, but about verifying: can the AI bull market continue?
For traders, rather than betting early, it's better to wait until the earnings report and Federal Reserve decision are fully implemented before taking advantage of the trend.
$BTC $ETH Many traders are asking the same core question: Has Bitcoin's current bear market come to an end, and has the cycle bottom been confirmed? The absolute low point of the market can only be seen in hindsight. However, we can use on-chain chip cost data to judge whether the market is nearing the end of the bear market and whether the tokens have been fully exchanged. The core tool of this analysis is the STH/LTH Cost Ratio (short-term holder cost ÷ long-term holder cost). Concept Popularization: STH short-term holders: holding for less than 155 days, representing recent speculative capital inflows; LTH long-term holders: holding for more than 155 days, representing the overall holding cost of the belief-type group holding coins. During a bear market downturn, short-term holders who entered at high prices keep cutting losses and exiting, causing the market to undergo a massive chip migration. The average holding costs of both new and old holders keep converging—this phenomenon is called cost convergence. When the average cost of short-term holders falls to match that of long-term holders, and the ratio approaches 1, it often indicates that selling pressure has been fully released. 1. Three Rounds of Historical Bear Market Backtesting: No New Lows Seen After Cost Overlap We reviewed the complete bear markets of 2015, 2018, and 2022, using the STH/LTH Ratio ≤1 as the criterion for cost convergence and observing subsequent market performance. Historical samples show that after the indicator fell back to the 1 or lower range, Bitcoin never broke below the lowest point of this cycle. This indicates that the STH/LTH ratio is ≤ 1, or moreOil prices are rising again!
Trump's latest statement said the U.S. will respond militarily to Iran.
After the announcement, US stock futures retreated, international oil prices surged rapidly, and Brent crude climbed back above $87.
Why is the market so sensitive!
Because once geopolitical conflicts escalate, the biggest impact is often not on the stock market, but on energy.
Rising oil prices will push up global inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, rising inflation expectations will affect the market's judgment of the Fed's subsequent policies.
For risk assets, this means uncertainty increases again.
More importantly, this week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
On one hand, geopolitical risks are pushing oil prices higher; on the other, the market is waiting for interest rate results.
With these two factors combined, market volatility this week is highly likely to be significant.
What really needs to be paid attention is not who says what, but whether funds begin to flow continuously into safe-haven assets.
Only when capital flows change can market trends truly shift.Guys, tonight's focus was on the Federal Reserve's FOMC, but Trump stole the spotlight. Just now, Trump officially stated that the United States will strike Iran in response to attacks targeting American targets in Jordan. This is not just a verbal warning. In the past 48 hours, the US and Iran have switched directly from the "diplomatic window" back to "military operation" mode—Iran fired ballistic missiles at US military bases in Jordan, and US forces and Saudi Arabia jointly carried out precise strikes against pro-Iranian militias inside Iraq. The day before, Trump had met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House to discuss "how to deal with Iran," and just hours later, missiles arrived. The market immediately voted with its feet. Brent crude surged dramatically in the short term, breaking through $87 per barrel, with a 1-hour increase of 2.06%, while WTI crude rose 5%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq index futures both turned lower, with Nasdaq futures dropping as much as 1% at one point. The rise in oil prices signals a renewed surge in inflation expectations, and the market has already been agonizing over whether the Fed will raise rates tonight, adding another variable. What does this mean for the crypto market? In the short term, it's stress. Geopolitical conflicts + soaring oil prices + falling US stock futures—these three factors combined suppress short-term sentiment toward risk assets like BTC and ETH—traders had already been reducing positions before the FOMC, and now they have another reason to remain on the sidelines. BTC is hovering around 64,000, ETH is shaky near 1,900, and if oil prices continue to rise, risk appetite will shrink further before the decision. There are two possibilities in the middle term. If the conflict escalatesBloodbath 53%! Smart money is crazily shorting stocks—where exactly are SNDK and MU?
When it drops to the point where you don't dare to buy, it's often not the bottom; When everyone thought there was still room to drop, the bottom was just over halfway through.
Guys, SanDisk dropped from 2354 to 1028, halved in one month; Micron fell from 1255 to 789, evaporating 35%. SK Hynix's earnings report falling short of expectations was the trigger, and the listing of China Changxin Memory was the real nuclear bomb—the market fears that China's storage capacity expansion will change the global landscape. Capital is withdrawing from Korean semiconductors and flowing back into Hong Kong stocks, known as 'old Deng stocks.'
From a technical perspective:
$SNDK Four hours: After yesterday's low of 991.91, it rebounded to 1087, with all three RSI lines showing oversold near 30. But MA7 (1099), MA25 (1153), and MA99 (1358) all dominated overhead. 1028 is the first line of defense; if it breaks, look at 897.
Smart Money Signal: SNDK long positions average cost 11.74 million, unrealized loss 7.54 million; Average short cost is 12.74, unrealized profit is 43 million.
$MU Four hours: After a low of 757.01, it rebounded to 817, with an RSI of only 28.88, indicating extreme oversoldness. Above MA7 is at 856.
Smart Money Signal: MU bulls average cost 8.3 million, floating loss 650,000; Short positions average cost 8.87 million, unrealized profit 9.8 million. The bears won decisively.
Operating Approach:
Short strategy: Short SNDK rebound between 1100-1120. MU rebounded at 840-850, short position.
Personal view: A post-market rally in the storage sector does not necessarily mean a reversal. SanDisk's August 5 earnings report is the real dead end—Wall Street expects revenue of $8.42 billion, while the company's guidance cap is only $8.25 billion. Exceeding expectations is expected; falling short is a waterfall. Right-side trading is the true survival rule for high leverage.
Remember: don't bottom-fish, wait for stabilization; Don't chase short sellers; wait for a rebound.
Your likes and shares are my motivation to keep updating! Comments section posts #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员 "Waiting for stabilization" or "Waiting for a rebound": Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver their #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期 tonight, with storage stocks experiencing sharp fluctuations Oil prices have surged again, and BTC and ETH may not be over in this round of decline
BTC fell below $63,000 yesterday, and ETH fell back to a low of $1,865. Many people think this is just a normal pullback, but I believe the market is truly worried not about technical aspects, but about new changes in the macro environment.
In the past two days, tensions in the Middle East have escalated again, with international oil prices strengthening once more.
What does rising oil prices mean?
This means transportation costs, energy costs, and business production costs may rise again, all of which will ultimately be reflected in U.S. inflation data.
Once inflation picks up again, it will be difficult for the Fed to send easing signals.
And this is precisely the biggest risk in the market right now.
Walsh has repeatedly emphasized that the Fed's core goal remains to keep inflation stable at 2%.
This means that as long as inflation risks are not truly eliminated, even if the economy slows down, the Fed may not rush to cut rates.
So, what truly deserves attention tonight is not whether to adjust interest rates, but Walsh's judgment on future inflation and interest rate paths.
If he continues to emphasize:
Inflation remains above target;
Rising oil prices add new uncertainties;
High interest rates need to be maintained for a longer period;
In that case, the market is likely to continue interpreting it as hawkish.
For BTC and ETH, high interest rates mean US dollar liquidity remains tight, putting pressure on risk asset valuations.
From the market perspective, after BTC fell below $63,000, the bulls' defense line has started to loosen.
If no significant incremental funds enter after the meeting, BTC may continue to test $62,000, or even test the $60,000 threshold again.
Ethereum is currently near 1900, and if market sentiment worsens further, further tests around 1800 support cannot be ruled out.
My view hasn't changed:
Before the macro environment shows significant improvement, every rebound should be viewed as a rebound, rather than rushing to judge that the market has reversed.
What truly changes the trend is not a short-term rebound, but a return to easing Fed policy expectations and sustained easing of inflation risks.
Until then, I still maintained a biased mindset.
Tonight's Fed meeting and Walsh's speech are likely to determine the direction BTC and ETH will take throughout August.
If the speech remains hawkish, then there is likely still significant room for this round of decline.Fu Peng is bearish on cryptocurrencies, predicting prices: "Last November and December, I bet $110,000, and by 2026, the price will definitely be halved!" On November 2, 2025, $BTC peaked at about $111167, and on that day, it did reach 110,000 USD; But by mid-November, it had dropped to $100,000, about $90,000 at the end of the month, and spent most of December in the $80,000 to $90,000 range. But now BTC stands at 63,000, nearly halved! Fu Peng graduated from the University of Reading in the UK with a major in International Securities, Investment, and Banking. Early on, he joined Lehman Brothers, later participated in event-driven funds, and in 2020 became Chief Economist at Northeast Securities. In recent years, he has gained popularity through liquidity, interest rates, and a global asset allocation framework, with his Weibo followers once exceeding 4 million. In April 2026, he joined Xinhuo Group as Chief Economist. Xinhuo was formerly Huobi Technology, whose founder Li Lin is its single largest shareholder, with business covering digital asset trading, asset management, and custody. Fu Peng gave his new direction a very straightforward name: FICC+C. FICC stands for bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities, while C stands for Crypto. Why would someone who has long studied traditional macroeconomics enter crypto financial institutions at this time? Because $BTC is no longer just an internally priced asset in the crypto world. U.S. Treasury yields, dollar liquidity, ETF funds, corporate treasuries, and institutional risk budgets all influence its price movements. Crypto institutions want to serve family offices and professional funds, but they can't just talk about halving, consensus, and four years$BTC JPMorgan offers three scenario predictions for tonight's Fed decision: 1. Rate unchanged + hawkish stance (50% probability, benchmark scenario): S&P 500 flat or 0.5% drop 2. Rate unchanged + dovish stance (28% probability, optimum scenario): S&P 500 expected to rise up to 1% 3. 25 basis point rate hike (20% probability, bearish scenario): S&P 500 plunges 1.5%-2% Conflict 🚨 hook Currently, half the market funds have already defaulted to a "hold steady but hawkish" scenario! Many traders are positioning in advance for good news, but risks cannot be ignored: there is still a 20% chance of an unexpected rate hike. BTC highly linked to US tech indices, tonight's rally fully matches the tone of the speech! Do not bet heavily on a single script in advance; risk is maxed out before and after the decision is implemented, and it is safer to wait for signals to follow the trend! Three scenarios correspond to crypto market market forecasts Scenario (1): Holding interest unchanged, stance is somewhat hawkish [50% probability | Benchmark expectation] ✅ Impact analysis: The Fed remains vigilant about inflation and delays rate cut expectations, causing US Treasury yields and the dollar to strengthen slightly. Risk assets are under pressure, BTC is highly likely to rally and then retreat, maintaining a range-bound movement. 📈 Market performance: BTC rebounded under pressure below 65,100, returning to a range-bound consolidation. Fake investors are following the market to diverge, making broad-based rallies unlikely. Scenario (2): Interest rate unchanged, dovish stance [28% probability | Bullish optimal scenario] ✅ Impact analysis: Signals of cooling inflation, strong expectations for rate cuts this yearJiang Zhuoer: Market expectations for Fed rate hike are divided, 65% expect no hike
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Labit mining pool, tweeted that about 5 hours before the Fed's rate decision, the market remains clearly divided on whether there will be a rate hike, with about 65% expecting no hike and 35% expecting a hike. The level of disagreement is rare in recent years. He expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, but Powell may signal a hawkish stance, causing the crypto market to first short squeeze then sell off. He also noted that Bitcoin has fallen after the past 8 FOMC meetings.#美联储即将公布利率决议
Don't just focus on "rate hike or not" tonight: the real direction for US stocks and BTC is decided by these 3 signals
Tonight might be the easiest night this week for a false breakout
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time, followed by a press conference at 2:30 AM. Many are only waiting for the final rate result, but in my view, the real determinants of the Nasdaq and BTC direction are the following three signals
First, whether the statement continues to emphasize inflation risks
Keeping rates unchanged does not necessarily mean a positive signal. If the statement is clearly hawkish, the market will immediately reprice the subsequent path. The first to react is usually not stocks, but the 2-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar
Second, whether tech stocks can hold up when Treasury yields rise
If yields rise but QQQ does not drop significantly, it means funds are still willing to take on tech stock risk, which is actually a bullish sign
But if yields just start to rise and the Nasdaq quickly plunges, it means valuations are already very sensitive. Chasing tech stocks at this point has poor risk-reward
Third, who BTC is following
The most important observation tonight is not how much BTC rises, but its relative strength compared to the Nasdaq and the dollar:
If the Nasdaq strengthens and the dollar falls, but BTC does not follow, it indicates weak internal support in the crypto market.
If the Nasdaq is volatile and the dollar does not weaken significantly, but BTC leads in recovering losses, that is a true sign of strength.
Current status: staying out, not betting on rate results in advance
Scenario A: Bullish
The Fed signals no further hawkish shift, the dollar and 2-year yield fall together, QQQ and BTC stabilize after the first wave of volatility.
Simulated strategy: build a 10% observation position first, confirm it’s not a one-minute spike, then consider increasing to 20%.
Scenario B: Bearish
The dollar and 2-year yield rise rapidly, QQQ breaks below the first low after the announcement, and BTC underperforms the Nasdaq.
Simulated strategy: do not catch the first drop; wait for a failed rebound, then build a 10% simulated short observation position.
Scenario C: Range trading
Rates rise first after announcement, then reverse during the press conference, or vice versa.
Simulated strategy: skip the first move. Before a stable direction forms, being out of the market is also a position.
The biggest risk tonight is not choosing the wrong direction, but mistaking emotion for trend when the first big green or red candle appears.
My principle is simple: watch the dollar and US Treasuries first, then the Nasdaq, and finally confirm BTC. If the three don’t align, heavy positions are not justified.
If the first wave tonight suddenly surges, will you chase immediately or wait until after the press conference to decide?
The above is a simulated scenario analysis, does not represent real trades, and is not investment adviceCrypto sitting at +1% heading into tonight's Fed decision and big tech earnings stacked in the same session is not conviction, it's paralysis. When catalysts of this weight land together, markets compress until forced to move, then often overshoot. The tape is more uncertain than the price action suggests.
SK Hynix posting a record quarter but missing expectations, memory stocks swinging hard, Apple reclaiming the global top market cap over Nvidia: read together, the AI infrastructure trade is rotating, not reversing. Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon tonight will confirm or deny. BTC at $64,341 tracking sideways into this is a reasonable reflection of that uncertainty, not a breakout setup.
Not financial advice.
#OKXOrbitMARA Holdings, the world's largest publicly traded Bitcoin mining company, is undergoing a fundamental strategic pivot. CEO Fred Thiel recently stated in an interview that the company is shifting from a single Bitcoin mining enterprise to an energy platform that controls land, electricity, and data center infrastructure. Meanwhile, MARA sold over 20,000 bitcoins in a large scale in the first quarter of 2026. Behind this series of moves is the combined driving force of the power economy, debt pressure, and strategic positioning. The AI computing power race is essentially a battle for electricity. Thiel's logic is straightforward: if every kilowatt-hour of electricity is used in AI data centers, the returns are much higher than those spent on Bitcoin mining. According to industry data, AI workloads generate about $25 per kilowatt-hour, far exceeding the returns from Bitcoin mining. Electricity has always been the biggest operating cost for mining companies. With the explosive growth in demand for AI computing power, electricity has become a core resource fiercely contested by Bitcoin miners, cloud service providers, chip companies, and large model companies. Whoever controls the electricity controls the pricing. In 2021, Thiel predicted that mining companies must become power companies or be deeply connected to power companies. At the time, many people mocked this claim, but today electricity has clearly become the most critical resource. MARA currently has over 4GW of energy capacity, making it one of the largest power portfolios in the digital infrastructure sector. Selling electricity to AI companies is a long-term, stable business. Revenue from AI data centers usually comes from partnerships with enterprisesThe market considers this Federal Reserve interest rate decision to be the most uncertain one, but I personally don't think so. At least one thing is certain: a rate cut is impossible!
In the half month leading up to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, tensions between the US and Iran have been escalating, with oil prices rising from 67 at the beginning of the month to a high of 92 this month.
This undoubtedly reflects the market's concern about the escalation of the US-Iran situation, which has indeed escalated.
The surge in oil prices has again caused the market to worry about the stubbornness of inflation, which is obviously unfavorable to the Fed's interest rate policy.
Most importantly, just a few minutes ago, Trump made a statement:
The US will take action against Iran. A few days ago, he was asking for a rate cut from Powell, and now he's pushing oil prices higher, which is contradictory.
A one-sided interpretation is: on one hand, I want benefits; before the midterm elections, I can't lose public support.
For mainstream coins, there may not be the large fluctuations that everyone imagines. After all, there has been a long period of wide-range oscillation recently, with long-term holders and institutions dominating the trend, and retail investors are almost negligible.
The major volatility still lies in the US stock market and the AI series; they are currently the market's focus.
As for the global market's attention, it will focus more on core globally priced asset classes such as US bonds, the US dollar index, and gold, because these are the barometers.
The above is just a personal opinion and not investment advice. #美联储即将公布利率决议 Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the ViaBTC mining pool, tweeted that about 5 hours before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the market remains clearly divided on whether there will be a rate hike, with approximately 65% expecting no hike and 35% expecting a hike, a level of divergence rarely seen in recent years. He expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, but Powell may signal a hawkish stance, potentially causing the crypto market to first short squeeze then liquidate longs. He also noted that Bitcoin has declined after the past 8 FOMC meetings.$SNDK US stocks turned positive before the market opened
SanDisk, which bottom-fished at noon, gains 400% unrealized profit
Asian trading sets up during the day to harvest leeks?
During the sharp drop this morning, Micron plunged over 7%
In the short term, it's more about 'leveraging time differences and information gaps' in emotional games, harvesting the trend market.
Liquidity difference: In early Asian trading, US stock index futures had thin liquidity, allowing small amounts of capital to create deep pits, making panic creation very low.
Event Dynamics: A pullback indicates that before the meeting, the main players tend to bet on "dovish" or that all negative news has been exhausted; the sharp drop is an opportunity to switch hands.Brothers, the market turmoil triggered by Korean leveraged ETFs has already reached the political level. On July 29, South Korea's Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Koo Yoon-chul, publicly apologized at a parliamentary hearing for the market turmoil triggered by leveraged ETFs, admitting that authorities should have conducted more thorough reviews before product launches. Councilor Lee Jong-wook directly rebuked him face to face: "This country has turned into a casino; these products should never be allowed to enter the market." I think this is a policy failure. Despite the apology, Koo Run-cheol still argued that leveraged ETFs are just "one of many factors" behind recent market turmoil, implying they are not the main culprit. However, South Korea's KOSPI index once plunged more than 12% on Tuesday, with retail investors forcibly liquidated 1.7 trillion won (about $1.2 billion) in a single day. Over 1.2 million leveraged accounts reached margin call thresholds, and about 320,000 to 460,000 accounts were fully liquidated, with principal wiped out and some incurred. Where is the core of policy failure? Since mid-July, South Korean regulators have introduced a series of remedial measures—raising the margin requirement for leveraged ETFs to 30 million KRW starting July 31, suspending new product listings, and discussing a cap on retail investors' leveraged exposure. But the problem is that all these measures are remedial actions after risk exposure, not preventive measures. The most fatal design flaw—the daily rebalancing mechanism of leveraged individual stock ETFs—is destined to accelerate declines during declines. This mechanism has existed since the product was designed, but only after two months on the market and causing losses of trillions of Korean won was it urgently discussed by regulators. Research on the Korean Capital Markets$SPCXB Musk once again declared "Mars landing within 5-7 years." But this time, the market is likely unlikely to accept it.
Why is it absolutely impossible?
Technical hell failed: Starship refueled multiple times in orbit, reentry into the atmosphere with a thermal shield, and precise Mars landing—will all these three be completed within 5 years? Physics refused.
Deadly deep space radiation: Closed-loop life support systems and protective technologies are far from mature; sending people away now is tantamount to sending them to their deaths.
"Musk's timeline" is routinely delayed: From FSD to Cybertruck, his timeline has always been multiplied by 2 or even 3.
Why are valuations discounted compared to market expectations? In the past, grand narratives could boost valuations, but now capital only needs cash flow. Mars is a giant capital black hole with no short-term ROI; such high-profile empty promises not only fail to boost confidence but also expose potential financial squeeze risks the company may face in the future. After shouting "The wolf is coming" too often, investors will only grow tired of the empty PPT aesthetic and choose to take profits.
It's fine to hype up the bill, but physics doesn't listen to PPTs, and financial statements don't trust tears either.趋势失效条件：当资金从卖铲人逻辑转向应用端共识时，上一轮叙事结构可能面临重构 关键问题：如果 AI 叙事中的基础设施溢价被市场重新定价，加密市场中的卖铲人逻辑是否也会同步失效？ 原文核心是越南投资者分享的投资思维：人们往往关注新技术本身，但资本市场更倾向于投资支撑该技术的"卖铲人"——即那些提供基础设施或关键组件的公司，并以 AI 浪潮中 Nvidia 及整个 GPU 产业链（HBM 内存、光模块、服务器、液冷、数据中心、电力）的暴涨为例。这一逻辑在加密领域同样被反复验证，例如在 DeFi Summer 中，投资者不直接买协议代币，而是买 L1 公链或节点服务商。 从市场结构来看，当前加密市场正在经历一个关键分歧：AI 叙事在传统科技股中正从基础设施向应用层迁移，OpenAI、Anthropic 等模型公司开始商业化，而 Nvidia 的估值增速面临降速预期。如果这一趋势传导至加密市场，意味着此前围绕 AI+Depin 或 AI+公链的基础设施代币（如 RNDR、AKT、FIL 等）的溢价逻辑可能被打破。市场将重新定价：谁是真正的"卖铲人"，而谁只是借叙事炒作的工具。 偏多路径：如果 Microsoft and Meta will release their earnings reports after the U.S. stock market closes today. Based on market expectations and industry logic, Microsoft's revenue and cloud business growth are likely to meet guidance but may not exceed expectations, resulting in a neutral stock price reaction; Meta's advertising revenue is expected to grow steadily, but if capital expenditures are further raised above $150 billion, it could trigger a sell-off similar to Alphabet's "CAPEX sensitivity". The core issue has shifted from "whether AI demand exists" to "whether investments can translate into current profits." The following analysis is based on key variables:
1. Microsoft Earnings: Cloud Growth Threshold Determines Market Sentiment
1. Core Forecasts and Key Metrics
- Revenue and Profit: Q4 revenue is expected to be $87.67 billion (YoY +14.69%), EPS $4.22 (YoY +15.62%), basically in line with previous guidance.
- Azure Growth: The 39%-40% growth guidance at constant currency is the market's "passing line." If actual growth falls below 39%, concerns about slowing AI demand will arise; if it reaches 40% or above, it can partially ease capital expenditure pressure.
- Copilot Commercialization: M365 Copilot paid seats are expected to increase by 6 to 8 million, with total seats possibly exceeding 30 million. A key observation point is whether enterprise customer renewal rates exceed 95%; a decline would undermine the AI software monetization logic.
2. Capital Expenditure Pressure and Market Sensitivity
- Quarterly CAPEX may exceed $42 billion, with full-year 2026 capital expenditure expected to reach $190 billion (YoY +61%), mainly for AI data centers and GPU procurement.
- Free Cash Flow Pressure: Q4 free cash flow is expected at $16.8 billion (YoY -34.2%). If management hints that 2027 CAPEX will further rise above $220 billion, the market may question "investment efficiency."
- Market Bottom Line: Investors can accept "growth matching expenditure," but if Azure growth slows while CAPEX continues to climb, valuation logic will shift from "growth stock" to "discounted cash flow" models, and the current 20x P/E ratio may face downward revision risk.
2. Meta Earnings: Advertising Resilience Struggles Against "CAPEX Anxiety"
1. Advertising Business Remains Core Moat
- Revenue and Advertising Performance: Q2 total revenue is expected at $60.26 billion (YoY +26.79%), with advertising revenue at $58.99 billion (YoY +26%). AI-driven improvements in ad conversion rates are a key validation point—Advantage+ automation tools now cover 82% of advertisers, with landing page conversion rates up over 6%.
- User Engagement: The app family (Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp) daily active users are expected to reach 358 million, but attention is needed on whether AI assistant monthly active users surpass 700 million.
2. Capital Expenditure as the Biggest "Minefield"
- CAPEX Guidance Risk: Current full-year 2026 guidance is $125 billion to $145 billion; if raised above $150 billion, it will trigger market panic over free cash flow. FactSet predicts Q2 free cash flow may turn negative for the first time.
- Market Tolerance Threshold: Investors accept "AI investment in exchange for improved ad efficiency," but if Reality Labs losses continue to widen, it will weaken the profit support for the advertising business.
- Historical Reference: Alphabet's stock plunged 7% in one day after raising CAPEX; if Meta repeats this, $750 will be a key resistance level, and falling below $600 could accelerate the decline.
3. Unified Market Logic: AI Investment Enters "Return Verification Period"
1. Turning Point from "Concept Hype" to "Data Validation"
- Market Focus Shift: Previously focused on "whether AI demand is real," now shifts to "whether unit capital expenditure can bring quantifiable revenue increments." If Microsoft's Azure growth falls below 40% or Meta's ad conversion rate improvement stalls, it will shake the entire AI infrastructure investment logic.
- Free Cash Flow Becomes the New Benchmark: Tech giants need to prove "CAPEX expansion ≠ profit deterioration," especially paying attention to whether the lag between capital expenditure and revenue conversion shortens.
2. Three Key Signals to Watch Today
- Microsoft: Whether Azure growth exceeds 40%, whether Copilot adds more than 7 million seats in a quarter, and whether 2027 CAPEX guidance exceeds $220 billion.
- Meta: The extent of ad conversion rate improvement, whether Reality Labs losses narrow, and whether specific plans for "external leasing of computing power" are disclosed.
- Common Variable: Management's statements on the "AI investment return cycle." If Microsoft says "cash flow turns positive in 2027" or Meta emphasizes "ad ROI has improved by over 15%," it could ease short-term selling pressure.
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
@OKX星球 $SNDK SanDisk rebounds, can it go higher?
Why did SanDisk fall? Because ChangXin Memory surged on its A-share listing debut, the market fears Chinese manufacturers will impact the NAND sector, causing global storage stocks to panic. Additionally, news of large-scale mass production of lithography machines in China has dampened market sentiment.
AI has driven growth for companies like Micron and Hynix. If China mass-produces lithography machines, these companies' profits may decline in the future. The market also worries about the returns on these investments. This explains why SanDisk has recently dropped and why I am bearish on SanDisk.
The above views are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice #美联储即将公布利率决议 EIA原油库存+美联储决议 行情前瞻 今晚重点关注两大重磅数据：22:30 EIA原油库存、次日凌晨2:00美联储利率决议，直接影响市场短期波动，美联储决议是核心主线，EIA仅为短线扰动。 EIA原油数据通过通胀预期间接影响币圈：库存大减会推升油价、抬升通胀预期，压制加密市场；库存大增则缓解通胀压力，给盘面带来短暂支撑。该数据只会制造短线插针，无法改变整体趋势，小幅数据偏差市场会直接忽略。 市场目前定价以美联储维持利率不变为主，行情关键全在会后话术，分三种核心走势： 1. 偏鹰发言（大概率）：强调通胀存不确定性、延后降息，美元和美债走强，盘面承压，山寨币跌幅会远大于比特币。 2. 偏鸽发言：认可通胀回落、维持观望态度，风险情绪回暖，币圈迎来短线反弹。 3. 意外加息（小概率）：流动性收紧预期激增，全局快速下跌，高杠杆币种会出现集中清算。 玥姐整体偏向稳健观望思路： 不提前猜多空，等凌晨美联储落地、盘面走出明确稳定结构，再顺势跟进。 同时重点做好币种取舍，大饼韧性更强，二饼和山寨波动剧烈、风险更高。高利率环境并未彻底改善，本轮消息涨跌均属于波段行情，不存在单边趋势机会。全程严控仓位，不追