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Gold keeps hitting new all-time highs, U.S. stock indices are steadily strengthening, but cryptocurrencies remain stuck in sideways consolidation, with Bitcoin and Ethereum narrowly trading sideways for a full 13 trading days.
Many wonder why Bitcoin can't break out despite the strong momentum in external markets.
Currently, BTC is range-bound between $62,000 and $65,000, while Ethereum hovers around $1,870. Bulls and bears are locked in extreme balance, with three major competing factors at play.
First, there is a clear divergence in capital flows. U.S. institutional funds continue to reduce holdings and exit, while Asian funds buy on dips. Coinbase Bitcoin negative premium has persisted for 80 days, setting a record for the longest duration. Capital is hedging back and forth, making it difficult for prices to trend unilaterally. Even though spot ETFs have accumulated $626 million inflows in August, most are short-term arbitrage funds that exit after realizing profits. Genuine long-term incremental capital inflows are limited and insufficient to drive a trend.
Second, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains undecided. Internal officials are divided, with ongoing debates between rate hikes and pauses. Market expectations for the timing of rate cuts fluctuate repeatedly. Macro uncertainty suppresses risk asset valuations, leading capital to wait and watch for key data like CPI to provide signals.
Third, regulatory news impact has already been priced in. The CLARITY crypto bill vote has been postponed to September 14, significantly reducing the likelihood of passage this year. When the shelving news broke in July, the market had already completed a round of downward adjustment. This official delay announcement is a typical case of bad news fully absorbed, making it unlikely to trigger large volatility again.
Sideways consolidation is the process of the market spring continuously building tension.
The key level for the next move is at $BTC $BTC BTC $ETHFI H $XAU #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SP500Eyes8000 #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
$850 million in ETF inflows, $BTC $ETH Why is it still not rising?
From August 3 to 7, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $853 million.
This is the highest weekly inflow in nearly 15 weeks and the third highest single-week inflow this year.
If this data had come out a few months ago, the market might have already started shouting:
"Institutions are buying up again, BTC is about to hit 70,000."
But this time was different.
$850 million in capital inflow, BTC has remained fluctuating below $65,000 for the week.
On August 9, BTC price was $64,808.
Money came in, but prices barely changed.
Why?
In fact, the current market logic is no longer simply "capital inflow = rise."
⸻
The first reason is that selling pressure near $65,000 is too heavy.
In July, BTC rebounded from $62,000 to around $65,000.
Many who bought at low prices have started taking profits, while previously trapped investors are also waiting to be relieved.
So whenever the price approaches 65,000, selling pressure always appears.
There are buyers in the market.
Rather, while buying is coming in, a large amount of chips are also being released.
Some people take goods, while others run away.
Naturally, prices are difficult to break through quickly.
Even long-term BTC holders like Strategy sold 1,638 BTC from late July to early August, worth about $104 million.
⸻
The second reason is that the macro environment has not yet fully cooperated.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its July meeting.
However, it is worth noting that divisions have emerged within the FOMC.
9 votes support holding steady, while 3 votes favor raising interest rates.
This shows that the problems the market is facing now are no longer just:
"When will the rate be cut?"
Instead:
"Will it tighten again in the future?"
BTC is now highly pegged to U.S. stock risk assets.
Therefore, ETF inflows often represent institutional allocation demand, not necessarily a frenzy of market chasing.
There is a big difference between the two.
⸻
The third reason is that the ETF's capital structure is not as strong as imagined.
Of this, $853 million flowed in, with BlackRock IBIT contributing about $693 million, accounting for over 80%.
Other ETFs saw significantly smaller inflows.
This shows that the entire market is not currently flowing in with frenzied funds.
It seems more like some large institutions are continuously allocating.
When a real bull market starts, you usually see:
Institutions buy,
scattered households pursued,
Trading volume expands,
Market sentiment is heating up rapidly.
And not yet.
⸻
So don't see net inflows from ETFs; simply understand it as:
"If institutions buy, BTC will definitely rise."
ETFs are a signal of long-term capital recognition.
But short-term prices, we also need to consider:
Whether there is sustained buying,
Is there any new incremental capital?
Is there any macro liquidity support?
Currently, the market is more likely:
Funds are entering the market, but the market has yet to form a consensus bullish outlook.
⸻
Now, near $65,000, is this a new consolidation platform, or is it just gathering strength before the rally?
I think the main focus is on three things from here:
First, can ETF funds continue to flow in?
Second, whether U.S. Treasury yields can continue to fall.
Third, whether the Federal Reserve has clearly signaled a halt to rate hikes.
The first two are improving.
The last one still needs to wait.
So the current market seems more like waiting for a catalyst.
Don't blindly fall into FOMO just because ETF inflows in, and don't assume the market is over just because it's moving sideways.
A true major market rally must be when capital, liquidity, and market sentiment resonate together.
Now it's just that the funds have come first.
The market is still waiting for a clearer signal.🔥 AI memory stocks are pulling back. But what if this isn’t the end of the AI memory bull market?
The recent weakness in storage stocks doesn’t necessarily mean the AI story is over.
It may simply mean the market got too excited, too fast — and now it’s cooling down.
$SNDK and $WDC both delivered better-than-expected earnings, yet storage stocks are still facing selling pressure. Why?
Because the market doesn’t really care about yesterday’s earnings anymore.
It’s pricing the next 2–3 years.
The big question now is:
👉 Can AI-driven storage demand actually justify today’s high valuations?
I’m watching one signal very closely: the industry’s biggest players are still spending aggressively.
SK Hynix $XSKHY plans to invest roughly 54.3 trillion KRW to expand its Yongin and Cheongju facilities.
That’s not a company making a short-term bet.
It’s a company preparing capacity for what it expects AI demand to look like years from now.
That’s why I don’t see this pullback as the end of the AI memory cycle.
To me, it looks more like a valuation reset after leverage and momentum got overheated.
⚠️ That doesn’t mean storage stocks go straight back up.
In the short term, volatility could remain brutal.
Post-earnings cautious guidance can keep money moving back and forth. Momentum traders need to be flushed out, and the sector could even go through another round of bottoming.
But if two things remain intact:
✅ Storage prices continue trending higher
✅ AI server demand remains strong
Then once sentiment stabilizes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see capital rotate back into the strongest names.
And here’s the part I think matters most:
The real risk isn’t a falling stock price. It’s a broken industry thesis.
If AI capex starts slowing down and higher memory prices fail to translate into sustainable profits, then we have a much bigger problem.
For now, the picture looks more like:
Short-term correction.
Long-term AI infrastructure cycle.
But the next phase probably won’t lift every storage stock together.
#DailyOrbit Let's start with a number: $BICO's all-time high was 21.45, now at 0.07. It fell 99.7%. But in the past 30 days, it has risen from 0.011 to 0.07, up 385%. A coin that was about to reach zero suddenly came back to life—what exactly happened? OKX data as of the early hours of August 9. Spot price 0.0699, up 21.6% in 24 hours, with a turnover of 18.8 million USDT. Futures were even stronger, with 6.7 billion yuan in turnover and 20.4 million USD in open interest, with open interest expanding by 7.6% within one hour. The funding rate was -0.356%, with the last 5 consecutive negative periods and the deepest down to -0.446%. Bears are heavily squeezed. Biconomy is building a Web3 account abstraction infrastructure based on ERC-4337 and EIP-7702, allowing users to interact without Gas. In July, it launched a modular execution environment on Robinhood Chain, and in April, it partnered with B.AI to expand AI security. The narrative hits the two hot topics of account abstraction + AI. In terms of tokenomics, the total supply is 1 billion, with about 718 million circulating (71.8%), and no additional issuance beyond the maximum supply cap. Market cap is only 69.63 million, and FDV is about the same, indicating that most tokens are already in circulation. ETH DEX liquidity is $52,000, with 109,000 turnover in 24 hours—not thick, but not deadThe selling pressure on storage stocks has clearly eased.
Morgan Stanley just turned bullish, and the most dramatic correction is basically over. AI demand is still supporting the next wave, and both Samsung and SK Hynix are optimistic. The gaps in HBM and DRAM haven't been filled, supply has risen 20% in a year, but demand is surging to 200%. Even Elon Musk named this one of AI's biggest bottlenecks. The shortage will last at least until 2027, and long-term contract volume locking has suppressed volatility again.
On the US side, the Nasdaq and S&P just hit new highs, semiconductor indices are recovering, and AI infrastructure spending is still piling up. The economy is weak in nonfarm payrolls, rate hike expectations have cooled, liquidity isn't as tight, and risk assets are generally confident. Previously, the crypto world was fluctuating with tech stocks, with BTC and ETH sensitive to AI sentiment. Now, the storage sector is stable, and market risk appetite has eased a bit.
This round of AI memory rally is essentially a structural shortage, not a simple cyclical speculation. It's normal for price increases to slow down, but fundamentals haven't shifted yet. Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but the long-term supply-demand gap remains. Focusing on fundamentals is more reliable than chasing sentiment.Today I saw an interesting claim: the crypto market is experiencing the "longest hesitation period in history."
From the perspective of ETF capital flow, institutions are buying. From the Fear and Greed Index, retail investors are afraid. From a price perspective, the market is moving sideways.
Has this kind of "hesitation" ever appeared in history? It has.
Q3 2023. BTC traded between 25,000 and 27,000 for a full two months. Everyone thought it was about to crash. Then, at the end of October, Trump tweeted some crypto-friendly remarks (he was still a candidate in 2023), followed by ETF expectations, BTC rising from 25,000 to 73,000.
The current hesitation is more like that wave. Not despair, not panic, but "uncertainty."
Market sentiment is in the "doubt" stage—it has moved out of "despair" but not yet reached "cautiously optimistic."
Historical patterns: Bull markets start in despair, grow in doubt, accelerate in optimism, and end in frenzy.
We are probably in the second stage. Still far from "cautious optimism," but the direction is right.
Trading advice: This stage is not suitable for short-term trading; it's better to build a bottom position. When sentiment shifts, you won't get notified in advance #Storage stocks selling pressure easing, is the AI memory bull market still stable? Today I saw an interesting claim: the crypto market is experiencing the "longest hesitation period in history."
From the perspective of ETF capital flow, institutions are buying. From the Fear and Greed Index, retail investors are afraid. From a price perspective, the market is moving sideways.
Has this kind of "hesitation" ever appeared in history? It has.
Q3 2023. BTC traded between 25,000 and 27,000 for a full two months. Everyone thought it was about to crash. Then, at the end of October, Trump tweeted some crypto-friendly remarks (he was still a candidate in 2023), followed by ETF expectations, BTC rising from 25,000 to 73,000.
The current hesitation is more like that wave. Not despair, not panic, but "uncertainty."
Market sentiment is in the "doubt" stage—it has moved out of "despair" but not yet reached "cautiously optimistic."
Historical patterns: Bull markets start in despair, grow in doubt, accelerate in optimism, and end in frenzy.
We are probably in the second stage. Still far from "cautious optimism," but the direction is right.
Trading advice: This stage is not suitable for short-term trading; it's better to build a bottom position. You won't receive any prior notifications when sentiment changes.#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up
What does this mean for tokenized stocks?
At last night's close, the S&P 500 was at 7,757.64 points, up 0.62%, once again hitting a new all-time closing high. This week's cumulative gain is about 3.58%, marking the strongest weekly performance since mid-April. The Nasdaq rose over 5% over the same period, while the Dow also posted a weekly gain of nearly 3%.
The direct catalyst is clear: US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 jobs in July (market expectation of about an 80,000 increase), and data from the previous two months was sharply revised downward. Weak employment data immediately lowered the probability of a rate hike in September, shifting the market from "likely to continue tightening" to "more likely to hold steady." Risk assets thus gained some breathing room.
Currently, the level is only about 3.1% away from 8000 points. On the forecast market Kalshi, traders give about two-thirds of the probability that the S&P will reach 8000 this year. Analysts are also raising their ratings: Tom Lee clearly targets 8000, CFRA has raised its year-end target to 8050, and institutions like Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale also set 8000 as a reachable range. The main support logic is earnings resilience (the proportion of earnings reports still beating expectations remains high), AI-related capital support continues, and improved liquidity expectations.
This isn't just another stock market rally; for tokenized stocks, the new highs in traditional markets directly boost the appeal of underlying assets. The market capitalization of tokenized US stocks and ETFs has already reached the $2.3–2.4 billion range, with Ondo still holding a clear lead, and BNB Chain performing well in trading volume. As the S&P keeps hitting new highs, users holding the tokenized version gain not only price synchronization but also smoother 24/5 trading, cross-border access, and dividend penetration. When the traditional market is strong, real demand for on-chain mapped products will follow! This is the most solid logic in RWA for 2026.
Of course, we must stay clear-headed. The range from 7758 to 8000 seems close, but there may still be pullbacks in between. Employment data has weakened, and subsequent inflation, the Jackson Hole meeting, and the Fed's actual statements will all cause volatility. Valuations are not cheap, and AI narratives are well priced. Tokenized stocks themselves also come with custody, redemption, and regulatory uncertainties. Directly translating the S&P above 8000 as "Tokenized stocks rising blindly is a dangerous simplification."
The truly valuable observation is that while traditional stock markets hit record highs, on-chain mapping is becoming the actual entry point for more and more people to access US stocks. Institutional pilots, multi-chain deployments, and exchange product rollout are all pushing this path from experimentation to everyday tools. Prices can fluctuate, but once infrastructure is put into use, it is very difficult to completely dismantle.
8000 points is not the end, but a new pricing anchor. For those who are serious in allocation, what matters more now is whether, as traditional markets continue to rise, tokenized products can continue to offer a real-world experience with lower friction and higher accessibility, rather than just dancing with index sentiment."Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up: Why Are Funds Flowing into U.S. Stocks First and Not Bitcoin?" Where Are the Opportunities? 》
Recently, a phenomenon has appeared in the market that many people have not understood.
Expectations for rate cuts continue to rise, but capital is primarily focused on the US tech sector, not Bitcoin.
Many investors believe:
With improved liquidity, risk assets should rise together.
But the market actually operates is not that simple.
Funds first choose directions with higher certainty.
Recently, U.S. employment data has cooled, and the market has reinstated expectations for future rate cuts.
Interest rate futures data show that the market's probability of further rate cuts has significantly increased.
In theory, improved liquidity would benefit growth assets.
But institutional funds are more focused on:
Where has real growth already appeared?
Currently, the biggest certainty in the US stock market is the AI industry.
Nvidia's quarterly revenue was $68.1 billion, with data center revenue at $62.3 billion, indicating that AI demand is being converted into real income.
Therefore, funds are willing to position themselves in technology assets in advance.
Bitcoin is different.
BTC relies more on market expectations, including ETF funds, macro liquidity, and investor sentiment.
It needs to wait for new catalysts to emerge.
So seeing capital entering US stocks first doesn't mean the crypto world has lost its opportunity.
It's just that the two markets have different rhythms.
The US stock market trades as:
Industrial growth is being realized.
Crypto trading is:
Future expectations change.
When the market enters a multi-cycle phase, what truly matters is not whether the assets are synchronized, but who is approaching their window of opportunity.Everyone is trying to front-run the same $BTC breakout at $67K.
Cumulative net longs are now approaching +$500M, the highest reading BTC has recorded around this price throughout the entire range.
Positioning is significantly more long than the last time $BTC traded here, and price still hasn’t reached range resistance.
Maybe they’re right.
But if the breakout fails, the market is left with the largest concentration of trapped longs we’ve seen at this point in the range.
Another rejection from range resistance would likely force that exposure to unwind back through the range.
#DailyOrbit "Bitcoin Breakthrough Fails, US AI Continues to Strengthen: What Exactly Happened in Both Markets?" 》
Recently, the market has shown a clear divergence.
The US AI sector continues to attract capital's attention, but Bitcoin failed to break through after breaking through to key levels and continued to fluctuate.
Many investors are puzzled:
In the past, when risk assets rose, the crypto world often followed suit.
Why is it that while US stocks are rising, BTC hasn't synchronized?
The key point is that the market is trading two completely different logics.
Many people believe:
When funds don't buy Bitcoin, it means the market's risk appetite is declining.
But that's not the case now.
Behind the rise in US stocks is clear industry data.
Nvidia's latest quarterly revenue reached $68.1 billion, with data center business revenue at $62.3 billion.
The market is seeing growing AI demand, corporate capital investment, and future profit potential.
Institutions are allocating tech stocks because the industry is paying off.
Bitcoin is currently trading a different cycle.
BTC has no profit data and no corporate orders.
Funds focus on ETF inflows, liquidity changes, and market expectations for the next phase of the market.
So now it appears:
US stocks strengthened.
BTC
Rather, the asset enters a different stage.
US stocks are currently experiencing a cash-out cycle in the AI industry.
The crypto world is waiting for expectations to rebuild.
The market is becoming more mature, and assets no longer simply rise in tandem.
The real opportunity is not to look for all assets to rise together, but to find each market's own trigger signal.On-chain data shows that the group holding BTC long-term is continuously distributing, pushing the 30-day net position indicator into deep negative territory
The supply structure has changed, with a large number of old coins returning to circulation, breaking the previous market scarcity
The current momentum for holding the price no longer comes from hoarding but entirely relies on new capital buying forces to absorb this selling pressure
In other words, growth momentum has shifted to a new phase, and BTC will fluctuate within a wider range in the future, making it highly sensitive to macro liquidityAI might be cooling off — but that could actually be good news for crypto. 👀
For weeks, investors were worried that the sell-off in AI memory stocks was the first sign that the AI boom was finally losing steam.
But the picture is starting to look very different.
Selling pressure on SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron appears to be easing, while the underlying demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) remains incredibly strong.
And that matters.
Companies like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google are still pouring billions into AI chips, data centers, and infrastructure. In other words, the AI story hasn't disappeared — the market may simply have needed a breather.
And here's where crypto gets interesting. 👇
When AI and semiconductor stocks stabilize, risk appetite across the broader market can improve. That creates a more favorable environment for growth assets — including $BTC and $ETH.
If the Nasdaq keeps climbing, AI chipmakers continue recovering, and Bitcoin/Ethereum ETF inflows stay strong, we could be looking at the setup for another major crypto expansion.
And it may not stop with BTC and ETH.
AI-related tokens, Layer 1s, and blockchain infrastructure projects could all benefit if liquidity starts rotating back into higher-risk assets.
Of course, there are still a few pieces missing: softer inflation, a more supportive Fed outlook, and stronger institutional flows would make the picture much more convincing.
But for now, one thing is worth watching closely:
The AI trade may not be dying. It may simply be resetting.
And if that reset turns into another leg higher, crypto could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. 🚀
Follow for more crypto market insights and updates.
#AIMemorySelloffEases
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn
#SP500Eyes8000
$BTC $ETH $SPCX
#DailyOrbit #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
存储股抛压明显缓和了。大摩刚翻多，说最剧烈的修正基本过去，AI需求还在撑着下一波，三星和海力士都看好。HBM和DRAM缺口没补上，供给一年就涨20%，需求却往200%奔，马斯克都点名这是AI最大瓶颈之一。短缺至少要延续到2027年，长协锁量又把波动压住了。
美股这边，纳指和标普刚创完新高，半导体指数跟着回血，AI基建开支还在往上堆。经济面非农偏软、加息预期降温，流动性没那么紧，风险资产整体有底气。币圈之前跟着科技股一起晃，BTC和ETH对AI情绪敏感，现在存储板块稳住，市场风险偏好也松了点。
这轮AI内存行情本质是结构性短缺，不是简单周期炒作。涨价速度放缓是正常的，但基本面还没转向。短期波动难免，长期供需剪刀差还在。看基本面比追情绪靠谱。$BTC
CLARITY法案
底部什么时候有过重大利好的？
这个法案短期内肯定不过啊
除非是在走出熊市底部的时候
就例如上轮四万八的贝莱德底部，ETF通过。
想想看，当初ETF为什么不可能在一万多的时候通过，而是在四万多才通过。$CRO
$CRO rises +1.20% with strong activity visible on the board. If buyers keep defending support, another momentum wave could follow.
EP: $0.0488–$0.0498
TP: $0.0520 / $0.0545 / $0.0580
SL: $0.0472下周三CPI和10年期国债拍卖撞在同一天，周四紧跟PPI与30年期拍卖，通胀数据和长端利率定价将在48小时内密集落地。非农已经爆冷，市场正在降息预期与再加息担忧之间摇摆，$BTC 围绕65000美元窄幅横盘等方向。如果CPI低于预期且拍卖需求稳健，降息叙事强化，风险资产有望获得喘息；但若通胀超预期叠加拍卖尾部走弱，长端利率跳升会先打高估值AI股，加密情绪大概率跟跌。值得盯住的变量是10年期拍卖的尾差和投标倍数——它比CPI数字本身更快反映真实资金态度。
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #比特币BIP-110提案遇冷，分叉链落后主网 #Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大💵 The Wage Number May Matter More Than Traders Think
July employment was extremely weak:
-23K jobs vs. ~83K expected.
But another part of the report deserves attention:
Annual wage growth slowed to around 3.2%.
Why does that matter?
Because the Fed isn't watching employment in isolation.
The combination of:
📉 Weak job creation
📉 Softer wage growth
📉 Downward payroll revisions
creates a very different macro picture from a strong labor market with persistent wage pressure.
For $BTC and $ETH, this could strengthen the monetary-easing argument.
But I still want confirmation from:
Treasury yields + DXY + actual crypto price action.
Don't trade one number.
Trade the complete macro picture.
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit 8月第一周的加密市场，走出了“全面修复”的行情。加密市场总市值从不足2.2万亿美元回升至8月8日的2.9万亿美元，一周内增超7000亿美元。 比特币：站稳65000，市值逼近1.3万亿 BTC本周上涨超3%，最高触及65,300美元，市值接近1.3万亿美元。非农就业数据意外转负（-2.3万）使9月加息概率骤降，成为反弹的核心催化剂——市场正在定价“就业走弱→加息压力减轻”的逻辑。 与此同时，现货ETF本周持续净流入，机构买盘正在逐步积累。 卡尔达诺（ADA）：连续第二周双位数增长 ADA表现亮眼，连续第二周实现双位数上涨。技术面上，ADA已突破自2025年末以来的长期下降趋势线，价格正接近0.22-0.24美元的阻力区域。若能有效突破该区域，下一技术目标位在0.25美元，更远目标指向0.30-0.32美元区间。 CLARITY法案：挫折不影响短期情绪 尽管CLARITY法案投票被推迟至9月，通过概率已降至23%，但加密市场并未因此受挫。这一方面说明短期流动性驱动优先于监管叙事，另一方面也反映出市场正在提前消化延长监管真空期的可能性。 当就业数据为降息打开想象空间，BTC重新站上6500#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
Beware of spoilers: BTC and ETH spot ETFs combined saw about $1.1 billion in inflows last week, marking the best weekly performance since April. But don't rush to shout "The bull market is back"—BlackRock alone accounts for over 80% of BTC ETF inflows, and ETH ETFs are also highly concentrated, with funding breadth far less than the optimistic data suggests.
Starting August 3, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $853.5 million last week. On August 3, $170 million was seen in a single day, reversing the downward trend of $265 million outflows on July 31. Ethereum spot ETFs also rebounded, with about $244.9 million inflows last week, marking five consecutive weeks of positive inflows. BTC then rebounded from around $62,000 to above $65,000, with ETH rising above $1,910.
But there are several details worth being wary of. First, BlackRock IBIT accounts for over 80% of total BTC ETF inflows, and ETH ETF is also fighting alone through ETHA—this is not a full recovery, but rather a "single dominant player." Second, while funds are flowing in, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the "extreme fear" range of 25. #Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大 Third, the Coldcard cold wallet vulnerability led to the theft of at least $110 million, with some funds flowing into ETFs possibly due to users moving from self-custody to institutional custody—this is not incremental capital, but a migration of existing funds.
My judgment: ETF capital inflows are real, but the structure is fragile. The market is supported by BlackRock alone; once IBIT sees a single-day outflow, the entire rebound logic will loosen. Whether BTC can hold above 65,000 and ETH can break through 1,950 depends not on the ETF inflow numbers themselves, but on whether next week's CPI data can sustain rate cut expectations—otherwise, this "returning bull" might just be a short-term drama orchestrated by a handful of major whales.
$BTC $ETH Recently, SpaceX (SPCX) has experienced an "epic" roller coaster rally in the US stock market. After a deep pullback from its all-time high (around $225) to around $105, the stock staged a dramatic comeback following its first earnings report release and the unlocking of restricted shares worth hundreds of billions, surging over 23% in just two days and currently trading near $133.
1. Core Logic of the Trend: Negative Factors Exhausted and Short Buying SpaceX's recent strong rally is mainly due to the "expectation gap." The market had previously been extremely worried that the unlocking of 911.5 million shares of insider restricted shares would trigger an epic sell-off, but after implementation, the stock price had already absorbed valuation risk through a sharp correction earlier, and retail investors and institutions were eager to buy the dip, so the anticipated "sell-off wave" did not materialize. This forced 36% of previously short positions to be liquidated and replenished, creating a strong "short squeeze" feedback. Meanwhile, the financial report shows that the "Starlink" business continues to generate revenue, and AI computing power leasing is showing a very high commercial premium, providing fundamental support for its grand "aerospace + AI" narrative.
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels (Technical Side)
● Short-term support level: The first support is at $109.53 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement level), which is a key line of defense for whether the current rebound structure can continue; if it is breached, the market may retest the previous low of $104.85.
● Core resistance levels: The primary short-term resistance is at $113.20 (the bull-bear dividing line) and $126.71 (recent rebound high). If it can effectively break through and hold, the next strong resistance level will be $135 (IPO price), which is currently the market's biggest psychological barrier.
3. Trading strategies and risk warnings
● Long strategy: Currently in a period of emotional recovery, if the stock price can strongly break through $126 and hold, consider light positions and follow the trend, targeting around $135.
● Bear strategy: If the stock price encounters resistance and retreats near the $135 IPO offering price and trading volume shrinks, consider taking short positions on rallies to take profits.
● Core risk: SpaceX's current valuation still carries a strong "dream premium," and a large number of restricted shares will be gradually lifted in August and September, so selling pressure risks have not been fully eliminated. In addition, whether the AI business's quarterly capital expenditure (Capex) of over $15 billion can be converted into matching free cash flow remains a Damocles' sword hanging above the stock price. Currently, there is a huge divergence between bulls and bears; blindly chasing the high is advisable. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market stable? $SPCX "Nvidia's earnings report far exceeds expectations, so why hasn't the stock price surged?" What exactly are institutions looking at? 》
Nvidia's earnings report once again delivered results beyond expectations.
The latest quarterly data shows that Nvidia's revenue reached $68.1 billion, with data center business revenue at $62.3 billion, and demand for AI computing power continues to grow rapidly.
According to market expectations, such performance should have driven the stock price to a sharp rise.
However, the actual market did not see a significant increase.
Many investors are puzzled:
With such strong performance, why hasn't capital frantically chased after it?
The key point is that the market is no longer trading "whether performance is good," but "whether it can continue to exceed expectations in the future."
In recent years, the core of Nvidia's rally has been the AI industry boom.
Institutions focus on GPU demand, cloud vendor capital investment, and the speed of AI commercialization.
But as market expectations continue to rise, capital demands for future growth are also growing.
In short:
Previously, the market viewed growth.
The market now expects growth beyond expectations.
This is also why, despite excellent earnings reports, stock price reactions have been relatively subdued.
Institutions are waiting for several signals:
Will AI investment continue to expand?
Whether data center demand remains high-speed.
Can the next-generation chip successfully scale up?
This is also different from the logic of the crypto world.
NVIDIA represents the AI industry cycle that has already been realized.
Bitcoin trades more about future expectations, including capital inflows, market sentiment, and cyclical changes.
So now look:
US stocks focus on earnings realization.
The crypto world is waiting for expectations to accumulate. $CORE CORE Hovers at $0.02 – Nothing Matters Until the Roadmap Delivers
CORE continues to consolidate around $0.02 on low volume, waiting for a real catalyst.
Some positive developments are in place: SatPay's internal testing is live and generating real revenue. The $150 million BTC principal guarantee dispute with Maple Finance has been settled, removing a major overhang. The 2026 strategy pivots toward profitability, with BTC staking, SatPay payments, and AMP asset management driving actual revenue — profits to be used for buybacks, theoretically creating a "revenue → buyback → value support" flywheel.
But let's be clear: until the roadmap is actually delivered, everything is just talk. SatPay has yet to see full commercial adoption, on-chain fee revenue hasn't scaled, and buybacks haven't materialized.
Consolidation precedes direction. The real breakout depends on roadmap execution — watch SatPay's commercial rollout and on-chain revenue data, not the price itself. Until the revenue flywheel starts turning, $0.02 is just another resting stop.
#DailyOrbit The hot and humid soil clings to the Geely suit, and the infrared thermal imaging in the sniper scope is showing a cold dark blue.
In July, U.S. nonfarm payrolls plunged sharply by 23,000, far below the expected 80,000. Even more chilling was the ballistic correction in May and June—wiping out 103,000 people downward. This was by no means a faint gust of wind disturbance; it was the sound of the Fed's labor defense line collapsing violently. Yet the unemployment rate strangely dropped to 4.1%. Don't be fooled by this optical illusion; it's just an illusion caused by soldiers retreating into bunkers (declining labor force), not a strong fortification of the position.
Through a 32x optical scope, I saw the extremely torn ballistic divergence within the market camp. CME's wind gauges set the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September at around 44%, while the Kalshi camp was betting as much as 65% on "holding the table." Two groups of top gunners lay in the bushes, tightly blocking each other's blind spots, neither daring to load their bullets lightly.
But the real deadly threat is the high-altitude crosswind that will cross the canyon next week—the CPI. Sticky inflation remains a crossfire point lurking on the flanks. If the next CPI data is hot, the hawks' suppressive comments will instantly disrupt everyone's predictions and completely shatter current rate cut expectations.
For hunters on the crypto battlefield and the $XBMNR of U.S. stock linkage stocks, the nonfarm payroll shocks are just the first flashbang dropped by the enemy. What truly determines whether we pull the trigger is whether next week's CPI will completely overturn the policy pricing set for September.
At the center of the crosshair, the $XBMNR and the overall market are fluctuating slightly with the breath of macro capital. Controlled funds are testing wind speed, and retail investors' panic trading is clearly visible in thermal imagers—a swarm of headless flies darting around on a wide open ground without cover.
The iron rule of hunting is simple: trading isn't about frequent moves, but about long lurking and a one-shot kill. Without an absolute profit-loss ratio above 1:4, never put your fingertips on the trigger.
The stop-loss line is your life-saving Geely Gear, and position control is your ammunition base. Before the CPI crosswind parameter is fully locked, lower your breathing rate to the lowest and maintain absolute silence.
Waiting for that only firing window, the bullet would be out of the chamber and must be bloody.After Circle released its Q2 2026 financial report, market attention on its strategic bet on the Arc public chain has continued to rise. The growth logic of USDC has also welcomed a new combination of variables, showing a short-term pressure but a significantly enhanced long-term growth certainty. - The financial report shows that Circle's net profit from continuing operations reached $48.21 million, successfully turning losses into profits, while raising the full-year 2026 "other income" guidance sharply from the original $150-170 million to $310-330 million. It is expected to recognize about $180 million in Arc token presale revenue, proving that it has broken away from the past single income structure relying solely on reserve interest, and its non-interest income generation capability has officially taken shape. The Arc public chain, scheduled to officially launch its mainnet on September 16, is not an ordinary public chain project but a dedicated ecological closed loop tailored by Circle for USDC, injecting new growth momentum into USDC from multiple dimensions: 1. Locking in institutional-grade RWA settlement scenarios The first batch of Arc validator nodes already includes top traditional financial institutions such as BlackRock, DTCC, Mastercard, Visa, and Standard Chartered Bank. BlackRock has directly deployed its flagship RWA fund BUIDL on Arc, and DTCC is also advancing asset tokenization on Arc. This directly makes USDC the default underlying currency for institutional-grade real-world asset settlements, entering the traditional financial clearing market worth hundreds of trillions, completely breaking out of the past single usage scenario of crypto trading. 2. Supporting AI agents 7月美国就业数据明显降温： 🔴 非农就业 减少 2.3万人 🔴 市场原本预计 增加约 8.3万人 🔴 5月 + 6月就业数据合计 下修10.3万人 🟢 失业率降至 4.1% 🟢 年度工资增速放缓至约 3.2% 真正值得关注的，可能并不只是“新增就业变成负数”。 更重要的是，就业、工资和历史数据修正正在同时转弱。 这对美联储意味着什么？ 如果： 📉 就业市场持续降温 📉 工资压力进一步缓解 📉 前几个月的就业数据不断被下调 那么通胀压力可能逐步减轻，美联储未来维持更宽松政策的空间也可能增加。 对于 $BTC 和 $ETH 来说，这是一种潜在的流动性利好。 但现在还不能仅凭一份就业报告就判断行情方向。 接下来真正值得盯紧的是： 🏦 美债收益率 —— 是否继续走低 💵 DXY美元指数 —— 是否出现进一步回落 📊 BTC/ETH价格结构 —— 是否真正突破关键阻力 💰 ETF资金流 —— 机构资金是否继续回流 如果收益率下降 + 美元走弱 + ETF资金持续流入，同时BTC/ETH出现放量突破，那么这次“就业降温”才可能真正转化为风险资产的上涨动力。 不要交易一个数据"Why didn't the US stock market surge after the Fed signaled a rate cut?" What exactly is capital waiting for? 》
Recently, the market has shown a trend that many people have not understood.
After the Fed released its rate cut expectations, US stocks did not rise sharply but instead entered a period of volatility.
Many investors are puzzled:
Isn't a rate cut a good thing?
Why didn't the capital immediately push the market higher?
The key point is that market trading is no longer just about "rate cuts."
Currently, market expectations for a rate cut in September have clearly intensified, with interest rate futures showing a rate cut probability of over 70% at one point.
But what the capital really focuses on is:
After rate cuts, can corporate profits continue to grow?
Because for the current US stock market, the core driving force has shifted from liquidity expectations to industry realization.
The Nasdaq remains supported by AI-driven stocks.
Nvidia's latest quarterly revenue reached $68.1 billion, with data center revenue at $62.3 billion. The market is seeing real growth driven by computing power demand and enterprise AI investment.
So institutions are not just waiting for rate cuts, but are waiting:
More clear profit growth.
On the other hand, US stock valuations remain at relatively high levels, and funds will not rush to chase prices based on a policy signal, but rather wait for new confirmation.
Now, let's look at the crypto world.
Bitcoin has recently fluctuated around $65,000, with the market focusing on changes in ETF funding and expectations of improved liquidity.
But its logic is different from that of US stocks.
The US stock market trades are about AI industry realization.
In the crypto world, trading is about accumulating future expectations. #标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up
This rally in US stocks is indeed fierce. The S&P 500 just closed near 7,757 points on Friday, surging over 3.5% for the week, and $SPY has also hit new highs. At this pace, the 8,000-point mark mentioned by Tom Lee is now less than 3% away—it's no longer just a castle in the air
This rebound was mainly due to earnings reports exceeding expectations and rising expectations of interest rate cuts, fueled by options funds, forming a self-reinforcing bullish rally
🤔 However, there are several key points worth considering next
▶️ After the rally, there is a consolidation
The 8000-point level is a highly psychologically suggestive threshold. Bullish momentum is not difficult to break through, but high levels can easily trigger profit-taking sell-outs, likely evolving into wide-ranging high-level fluctuations
▶️ The power needs to be switched
The phase of driving gains driven by sentiment and rate cut expectations is basically over. The market will be extremely picky going forward, and sustained profit-taking is needed to support current valuations
▶️ Derivatives funds are retreating
Option leverage funds come and go quickly; once macro data fluctuates even slightly, pulldown pressure becomes apparent
For the overall market, there's no need to blindly chase gains at historical highs. If you have a bottom position, set a moving take-profit plan and hold on. If you want to increase your position, consider waiting until the index consolidates around 8000 points or after a pullback confirms support, then enter in batches. This will greatly improve cost-effectiveness $XSPY
Non-investment advice for DYOR $BEAT Fivefold short open at 2.235, now at 2.811, a single loss of 13,457 U. $BICO Even more outrageous: 0.03404 went short, but it actually pulled up to 0.057. Can 30,000x leverage really hold up this increase? Unrealized loss of 43,729 U, return showed negative 206%, cross-margin ratio 270%. I stubbornly didn't cut out. Every time I wanted to cut positions, I thought "I'll bounce back immediately," but what I got was news that the rent had been spent. This market situation isn't explained by technical factors; it's just off-exchange funds sweeping up high-leverage short positions, specifically targeting coins with low liquidity to stir things up. The spot market didn't follow the rally; contracts were first pushed up. This divergence won't last long, but I won't wait for that pullback. After converting half the principal into the market, I only realized after reviewing over the weekend that I didn't account for the threat of a continued negative funding rate when I was short, nor did I set a rigid stop-loss line. I relied purely on psychological support to hold the trade. This is the most expensive tuition in trading. The short-term bearish logic hasn't changed, but the execution loopholes are too fatal. If it pulls back to around 0.052, I'll reduce my position and won't increase my position to keep up with the market. $BICO and $BEAT are my two biggest pitfalls right now, and I won't open new positions before they come out. BICO #现货ETF资金回流: Can BTC and ETH take over? #标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up 我做空的 XSNDK(3x 做空纳指)又涨 0.56%, 空单浮亏 -0.67%——做空的方向偏偏全村最硬, 反向指标石锤。
但大盘比我还惨: $BTC 24h -0.27%, 量能一天塌 80% 多, OI 钉在 10.69 万——价不动量先死, 僵尸市。
OKX 广度 10:5 恶化到 9:6; BICO/TUT/MMT 1h 同时腰斩(BICO +19% 已摔自 +28%)——音乐快停了。
真底不是横出来的, 是放量杀恐慌才见, $BTC 连恐慌都没有, 纯发呆。
我的尺子: 头部异动币 1h 集体腰斩 + 广度破 10:5 + BTC 量塌 80%+, 三件套齐=轮动衰竭, 不是低吸机会。
我那口 BICO 多单 +3.45% 还红, 但想止盈了——追加速末端接飞刀, 上次追 MMT 没凉透。
段子: 这行情像跟空气搏斗, 不如楼下买煎饼。
赌一把: BICO 周收 +15% 以上还是摔 +5%? 评论押数, 兄弟们。
加密资产高风险, 本文不构成投资建议, 纯属个人观点。
$BTC $BICO #OKX星球 #山寨轮动 #行情速递AI Cools Down, Is Crypto Next?
For weeks, investors feared that the sharp sell-off in AI memory stocks signaled the end of the AI boom. But the latest developments suggest a very different story.
The heavy selling pressure on memory giants such as SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron is beginning to fade. Many institutional investors now believe the recent correction was driven more by short-term sentiment than by any deterioration in the long-term fundamentals of the AI industry.
More importantly, demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)—the critical component powering advanced AI models—remains exceptionally strong.
Tech leaders including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google continue investing billions of dollars to expand AI infrastructure and data centers, reinforcing the view that the AI growth cycle is still far from over.
For the crypto market, this could become an important bullish catalyst. Over the past few years, Wall Street and digital assets have become increasingly interconnected. When AI and semiconductor stocks stabilize, investors' risk appetite typically improves, encouraging capital to flow back into growth assets such as $BTC and $ETH.
If AI chipmakers continue to recover, the Nasdaq maintains its upward momentum, and Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF inflows remain healthy, the crypto market could enter its next expansion phase. Beyond the two largest cryptocurrencies, AI-related tokens, Layer 1 ecosystems, and blockchain infrastructure projects may also benefit from improving global investor sentiment.
The market still needs additional catalysts, including supportive inflation data, a favorable monetary policy outlook, and stronger institutional inflows. However, the easing sell-off in AI memory stocks is an encouraging signal that capital could gradually return to both Wall Street and the crypto market.
If you found this analysis helpful, follow me for more high-quality Crypto market insights and updates.
#AIMemorySelloffEases
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn
#SP500Eyes8000
$BTC
$ETH
$SPCX ETF funds rebound to provide support; what makes BTC and ETH surging so difficult?
Recently, spot ETFs corresponding to $BTC and $ETH ETH have seen continuous capital inflows, prompting institutions to re-enter the market to buy and support, supporting the market at the bottom.
Bitcoin's trend is more stable, with institutions increasing positions without relying on high leverage, which is suitable for stabilizing the overall market rhythm;
Ethereum is more resilient, and its gains will be even stronger after capital flows in, but it is more dependent on new capital. Once ETF inflows slow, the pullback is often greater than Bitcoin's.
There are currently two practical obstacles, making it difficult to immediately take over the surge.
First, retail investors are highly cautious, waiting for the CPI inflation data to be released. No one dares to follow the trend and chase the rally, so relying solely on institutional funds is unlikely to drive a one-sided surge;
Second, the Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem continues to divert mainnet fee revenue, weakening its own upward momentum, making it difficult to break out of an independent market.
Overall,
ETF capital inflows are a real positive factor, helping to hold the current price level and avoid sharp drops;
But to break through key levels in succession, it still depends on the direction of CPI and whether capital inflows can be sustained.
Bitcoin is suitable as the ballast, Ethereum has considerable short-term resilience, and blindly heavy positions to chase rallies carry higher risk. $OKB
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
#比特币BIP-110 proposal cools off, forked chains lag behind mainnet
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes #CLARITY投票或延至9月, ethical differences remain unresolved
The CLARITY crypto regulatory bill has been extended again, cooling short-term market sentiment.
Over the past year, regulatory clarity has been seen as a key driver for the crypto industry to enter its next phase. ETFs have opened up traditional capital gateways, while regulatory frameworks determine whether institutional capital can participate long-term.
The delay means the industry is still in a phase of policy negotiation.
In the short term, the market may experience volatility due to disappointed expectations, but the long-term logic remains unchanged.
For truly large-scale capital to flow in, what he needs is not just a rally, but also clear rules.
If the U.S. can establish a clearer regulatory system for digital assets in the future, BTC, ETH, and other mainstream assets may see larger-scale institutional allocation.
The market will not change its trend over a single delay, but investors need to wait for certainty in policy implementation.
#CLARITY投票或延至9月, unresolved ethical differences, vote postponed to September, regulatory window postponed.Looking at this data set separately, employment is indeed weakening, but the falling unemployment rate makes it impossible for the market to directly price in a recession. The main trading theme has changed: previously, employment could beat inflation; now, after the nonfarm upset, the question is whether CPI will rewrite the policy pricing for September. Next week's CPI will be the real judgment point. CPI is weak, rate cut expectations are rising, and BTC may directly break through 65,500 to 67,000. CPI is strong, rate hike expectations are soaring again, and BTC is pushing back to 63,500 to 64,000.
The market is flat around 65,000, waiting for the catalyst. At 65,000, breaking above requires incremental buying; pullbacks require negative news to trigger it. The non-farm payrolls have already flipped half the table, waiting for the CPI to flip the other half. Don't heavily bet on the direction before the data comes out; set stop-losses and follow once the direction is clear. The non-farm payrolls are a prelude; CPI is the decisive battle $BTC $ETH $SNDK $850 million in inflows, yet BTC is still hovering around $65,000: This round of ETFs is "different"
From August 3 to 7, the net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs was $853 million. Some are buying, some are selling. More people buy, more sell
15-week high. The third highest single-week record of the year.
A few months ago, this would have been a script costing nearly 70,000 yuan.
So what happened? BTC hovered below 65,000 all week.
On August 9, BTC was quoted at $64,808.
$850 million was poured in, but the price barely moved.
Are you clueless?
Ethereum spot ETFs also saw inflows of $245 million during the same period.
Bitcoin + Ethereum, nearly $1.1 billion in one week.
And what happened? ETH rebounded from 1,800 to 1,920, up less than 3%.
In the past, when these numbers came out, the market would have already gone into FOMO.
What's different this time?
The first difference: the pressure on the seller is different.
During the July BTC rebound from 62,000 to 65,000, both profit-taking and uncovering positions were being released simultaneously.
At the 65,000 level, a large amount of locked chips have piled up ahead.
Every time the price approaches this area, someone sells.
Not to mention Strategy, the largest corporate holder, sold 1,638 BTC from late July to early August, about $104 million.
Some are buying, some are selling. More people buy, more sell—how can prices go up?
The second difference: the macro background is different.
The Federal Reserve just finished its meeting on July 29, keeping interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.
But the FOMC is unusually divided: 9 votes in favor of holding steady, 3 against and leaning toward a 25 basis point rate hike.
The market is not discussing "when to cut rates," but "whether to raise rates again."
The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is as high as 83.6%.
What does this mean?
This round of ETF inflows is largely a "hedge against macro uncertainty"—weak employment data has heightened market expectations for rate cuts, attracting funds to enter as safe havens rather than bet on a major bull market.
Two completely different logics.#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
The July stampede on storage stocks was too fierce: SK Hynix pulled back nearly 47% from its June high, Micron fell over 30% from its all-time high, Samsung Electronics fell 8% in a single day, South Korea's KOSPI triggered multiple circuit breakers, and the A-share storage concept was also halved.
But in the first week of August, the trend changed dramatically—leverage clearing was nearing its end, SanDisk rebounded over 6% in a single day, Micron/Hynix ADRs stabilized one after another, Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim was 'short on the market,' saying the storage market correction was nearing its end, and SK Hynix raised its 2026 EPS forecast by 13%.
So, is the AI memory bull market still stable? Let's break down the fundamentals:
1. The demand side is not a bubble, but a hard bottleneck for AI infrastructure
• AI server DRAM consumption is 8 times that of conventional models, NAND is 3 times higher, making HBM the "second biggest bottleneck after GPUs"
• The four major cloud providers in 2026 CAPEX guidance totaled $712.5 billion, up +73.8% year-on-year, with most funds going into GPU + memory
• At SpaceX's earnings call, Musk pointed out: memory demand growth far outpaces supply growth
2. On the supply side, the three giants really didn't expand production recklessly this time
• Samsung, SK, and Micron all posted their best Q2 results, but capital expenditures were limited to HBM and AI DRAM, resulting in consumer-grade capacity being squeezed instead
• New wafer fabs take 3 years to ramp up; Samsung clearly states no significant new supply before 2028
• HBM capacity has been sold out until 2027, and Micron has signed 16 five-year long-term contracts, guaranteeing gross margins exceeding any historical cycle
3. Price and institutional consensus: Holding sideways at high levels does not mean a peak or plunge
• UBS raises DRAM contract price forecast: +32% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, +18% in Q4, with supply-demand gaps lasting at least until the first half of 2028
• Morgan Stanley judges it as a "small ripple in the AI supercycle," with DRAM once up 700% year-on-year, but its valuation is only 3x NTM P/E
• Citibank, CITIC, and Cathay Haitong share the same view: this round of price stabilization at high levels has broken the traditional "price increase—expansion—surplus" death loop by long-term contracts
But don't get carried away—three hidden worries remain:
• The core of the July sell-off was trading crowding + leverage—not a loss of demand, but before leverage is fully replenished, the rebound will be suppressed by selling positions on rallies
• Cautious figures such as Xia Junjie from Renqiao believe that excessive profits are unsustainable, and that supply-demand imbalances may ease by the end of 2027
• The rumor that Vera Rubin's rack SOCAMM capacity has been cut from 55TB to 28TB, though SemiAnalysis interprets it as "supply constraints" rather than demand stalling, shows that the marginal narrative is fragile
What does this have to do with our crypto world?
The first few lines are actually the same network:
• BlackRock Rieder says "rate hikes are meaningless" → loose expectations support risk assets
• Spot BTC ETFs net bought 853 million in a single week→ Traditional allocation holdings are returning inflow
• Storage stocks stabilize; → AI capital spending story remains intact, and the Nasdaq does not collapse, BTC's "tech risk asset" attributes remain half stable
• Whale 102 million short liquidation price 65,300 → macro + on-chain is supported in the 64,000–65,000 corridor
A harsh truth: the AI memory bull market isn't over, but it's moving from "blind eyes rising" to "watching long-term contracts, watching CAPEX, and focusing on mid-year earnings." Previously, buying MU/HBM chains was a bet on cycles; now it's buying tickets for AI infrastructure. A 30% drawdown will come, but the foundation is different from the 2022 storage crash.$BTC $ETH August 9 | Crypto Daily
1. Market Overview
After absorbing the positive nonfarm payroll news, BTC consolidated in a narrow range throughout the day, holding above 64,800, with the current price of 64,950-65,100 USD repeatedly testing the previous high resistance at 65,300; ETH showed strong momentum, currently priced at 1,918-1,932 USD, up slightly by 0.17% in 24 hours.
The market overall showed a pattern of stable Bitcoin trading and differentiated alties, with SOL rising over 3% in a single day, becoming the strongest asset among mainstream coins; The Fear and Greed Index slightly rebounded to 33, with market sentiment slowly recovering from extreme fear.
The total 24-hour contract liquidation across the network was about $24.97 million, with nearly 90% of short positions liquidated. Concentrated stop-losses from short sellers led to a slight passive upward trend.
- Key BTC levels: Support at 64,500, 64,000; resistance at 65,300, 66,000
- Key ETH levels: support at 1890, 1855; resistance at 1950, 1990
2. Macro Market Review
1. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains fluctuating near 4.50%, with rate cut expectations fueled by weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls continuing to ferment. The US dollar index weakens, providing medium- to long-term liquidity support for crypto assets.
2. This week's core focus has officially shifted: Tomorrow's US July CPI inflation data will directly revise the Fed's rate cut expectations in September, making it the biggest variable for the market going forward.
3. The US storage AI sector stabilized, risk appetite warmed, and capital slightly returned to growth sectors, indirectly boosting crypto risk sentiment.
3. Institutional ETFs & whale capital movements
1. Last week, BTC+ETH spot ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.1 billion, marking the strongest weekly inflow since April; Among them, BTC saw $853 million in inflows for the week, with BlackRock IBIT accounting for over 80% of the buying funds, clearly indicating institutional interest in buying on dips.
2. Whale addresses have been net buying BTC for five consecutive days, while off-exchange spot buying has solidified the underlying foundation; However, in the past month, the total market capitalization of USDT and USDC stablecoins has shrunk by $2.23 billion, indicating a slight lack of on-exchange new liquidity, limiting the momentum for major gains.
3. MicroStrategy did not make large-scale increases this week and is in a wait-and-see state awaiting CPI data.
4. Industry Hot Topics and Risk Events
1. The Coldcard hardware wallet theft continues to escalate, with stolen assets exceeding $130 million. The security of the cold wallet is being questioned, and a large number of users have started asset migrations, slightly suppressing BTC sentiment in the short term.
2. The US CLARITY crypto bill has been postponed to the September Senate vote, completely clearing out short-term policy positive expectations and leaving the market entirely to macro data and capital trading.
3. AVAX saw a large token unlock today, totaling 1.67 million tokens worth over $10.73 million, posing short-term selling pressure risks; The Meme sector rotates rapidly, with a sharp rise followed by a pullback, and the risks of meme users harvesting and exiting remain high.
4. Uniswap's new token issuance platform Pools.trade launched, with trading volume exceeding $100 million on its first day, but frequent controversies over scaling and secondary innovation and IPO activity heating up.
5. Practical Trading Approach
1. Current Market Situation: This is a post-farm rally consolidation. 65,300 is a short-term dividing line between strength and weakness. Without an effective breakout, it will be difficult to break out of a one-sided bullish market.
2. Contract strategy: Avoid high leverage betting on CPI data; If it rebounds to the 65,200-65,350 resistance range, lightly take profits and reduce positions; If it pulls back to support at 64,500 and stabilizes, consider low longs, strictly controlling positions within 10%.
3. Spot strategy: Continue to take profits in batches for floating profit positions (sell 75%-85% of principal after a 30% increase); Patiently wait for CPI data to be released when new positions open, do not chase high prices early.
4. Counterfeit strategy: Avoid tokens like AVAX unlocked today; For Memes, only focus on solid bottom-up and LP locked assets, avoiding blindly pushing slippage and pushing for dirt targets.
6. Two types of market forecasts for tomorrow's CPI
- Inflation below expectations: Rate cut expectations strengthen, BTC is likely to break through 65,300 and challenge the 66,000 level;
- Inflation exceeds expectations: Rate cut expectations cool, BTC pulls back to test 64,500 support, starting a short-term correction. #非农意外转负, CPI becomes key to rate hikes. #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market stable? #财报观察员: After the ban is lifted, what is SpaceX's outlook? $BTC After reaching a historic high of $126,000 in October 2025, it entered a downward channel, dipped to near $57,800 in July 2026, and is currently fluctuating above $65,000. Although July recorded a monthly gain of about 7.5%, showing some resilience, the S&P 500 and $BTC ratios broke above long-term moving averages, suggesting that their excess return advantage over US stocks may be weakening. The market generally believes we are currently in the "second half of a bear market bottom," with prices likely to repeatedly dip around the $65,000 range rather than a rapid V-shaped reversal $BTC We may be witnessing the shallowest BTC bear market in short-term history
2014：-92%
2015：-82.5%
2018：-83%
2022：-75.5%
2025: -52.5% so far
This pattern has been broken, but I don't believe -52.5% is the bottom
Caught between seller exhaustion and weak demand
The real question is, are the sellers really done for?
Or is a bigger drop still on the way?💵 The Wage Number May Matter More Than Traders Think
July employment was extremely weak:
-23K jobs vs. ~83K expected.
But another part of the report deserves attention:
Annual wage growth slowed to around 3.2%.
Why does that matter?
Because the Fed isn't watching employment in isolation.
The combination of:
📉 Weak job creation
📉 Softer wage growth
📉 Downward payroll revisions
creates a very different macro picture from a strong labor market with persistent wage pressure.
For $BTC and $ETH, this could strengthen the monetary-easing argument.
But I still want confirmation from:
Treasury yields + DXY + actual crypto price action.
Don't trade one number.
Trade the complete macro picture.
$BTC $ETH #NFP #Fed #Bitcoin #Ethereum $BTC $ETH #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SP500Eyes8000 📊 Morning Movement | The market is consolidating, with the AI sector dancing alone
BTC $64,747 (-0.2%), ETH $1,912 (0%) — Saturday's Top 50 barely moved. But there was a ray of light.
⚡ Bittensor (TAO) 24h +6.7%, $100 million turnover, the only non-stablecoin among the Top 50 to lead with volume growth.
Supported by substantial content. August 4: v4.4.1 "Root Reborn" upgrade implemented—root earnings changed from automatic TAO conversion to validator subnet basket allocation, and the staking economic model was rewritten. Soon after, seven subnets confirmed Kraken launch, opening new liquidity gateways for the ecosystem.
Deeper layer: After the halving, 75% of circulating supply has been staking, and tradable TAO continues to tighten; Subnets rose from 32 to 129 in a year. AI sector narratives are also warming up against the backdrop of ChatGPT's ongoing iteration.
💭 $100 million in trading volume and a 6.7% increase—not zero volume pumping, but real money flowing in. Is AI sneaking away when BTC is trading sideways? $TAO ETH is now around 1914, and after two days of grinding, it has returned to this level. To start with the conclusion—I neither rush nor short at this level, just wait.
The news is genuinely hot. Spot ETFs have flowed in another 200 million this week, marking the fifth consecutive week of net inflows. Institutional buying is clear, retail investor sentiment is also optimistic, with buy orders outpacing sell orders by about 15 times.
But money on the market is moving away. Net inflow of large spot orders is negative, with twelve candles in the three-hour window all negative, and large players keep moving their positions outward; Active selling on the contract side dominates, and whale positions are quietly decreasing. The price is stuck near the upper edge of the range, rising to 1943 but not going higher.
To put it bluntly, external funds are flowing in, internal chips are exiting, both forces twisting tightly. Technically, it's also worn out—ADX below 20 is pure volatility, with volume less than half of normal, and this signal of a breakout with shrinking volume simply can't hold up.
This kind of position is the most painful. You want to chase after the news, but don't dare to look at the market; chasing long is not cost-effective, and shorting hasn't reached the position. It's better to wait for funds to pick a direction and wait for a volume increase before making a statement.
#eth $ETH📊 Don't Look Only at July NFP
The headline number is already shocking:
July NFP: -23K
But there's another number traders shouldn't ignore:
Previous payrolls were revised down by 103K.
That's important because it changes the story from:
“July was unexpectedly weak”
to:
“The labor market may have been weaker than previously believed.”
Unemployment fell slightly to 4.1%, but participation also declined to around 61.4%, so that headline improvement deserves context.
For $BTC and $ETH, I'm watching what happens next in:
• Treasury yields
• USD
• Fed expectations
• Equity futures
• Crypto positioning
The first headline creates volatility.
The revisions often change the bigger picture.
$BTC $ETH #NFP #Macro #FederalReserve #CryptoTrading$BTC $ETH #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SP500Eyes8000 ₿ BTC vs ETH After the Jobs Shock
The July US employment report was dramatically weaker than expected:
NFP: -23K
Expected: ~83K
Unemployment: 4.1%
Wage growth: 3.2% YoY
Now the interesting part isn't simply whether crypto goes up.
It's which part of crypto attracts the stronger demand.
As of Saturday, BTC was trading around $65K, while ETH was around $1,915, with ETH showing stronger short-term momentum.
If the macro environment becomes more supportive of risk assets, I want to watch:
ETH/BTC
If ETH continues outperforming BTC, that tells us the market is willing to move further out on the risk curve.
If BTC remains dominant, traders may still be seeking relative safety within crypto.
Macro gives us the catalyst.
BTC/ETH relative strength tells us where the capital is going.
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #ETHBTC #Crypto
$BTC vs $ETH #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SP500Eyes8000 The core contradiction in the current $CRCL valuation lies in the high dependence on reserve interest income and the expected gap between the high growth of on-chain transactions and the transformation of new businesses.
Of the $700 million in revenue in the second quarter, reserve interest accounted for $668 million, indicating that interest rate volatility remains the main driver of short-term performance.
However, USDC's on-chain transaction volume increased by 151% year-over-year, and other revenue grew by 41%, indicating that business diversification is accelerating.
The upcoming ARC mainnet launch on September 16 will be the next core variable to see whether it can shift from an interest-dependent enterprise to an infrastructure positioning.
The trigger for the upside scenario is that the ARC mainnet will be smoothly launched with support from institutions like BlackRock and Visa, and the on-chain asset accumulation growth rate in the first month will exceed expectations.
If this business can effectively offset the interest losses caused by rate cuts, the market will trigger a valuation restructuring logic. The failure of this script signals another indefinite delay in the CLARITY Act legislation.
The trigger for the downward scenario is for the Federal Reserve to start a rapid rate-cutting cycle, directly cutting the profit margin generated by $668 million in reserve interest.
At the same time, if the ARC mainnet launches and traditional financial institutions' actual transaction volumes fail to ramp up, the market expects a return to interest-sensitive pricing. The failure signal of this scenario is that USDC issuance will see a counter-trend growth of over 20%, offsetting the negative effects of unilateral rate cuts.
The most important variable to watch over the next seven days is the Senate's latest backlog on stablecoin regulatory bills and marginal changes in Fed rate cut expectations.
#新手必看: Here is everything you need #黄金升破4300美元, funds are staking interest rate cuts or safe havens?🚨 Don’t call it an $ETH scarcity trade yet. The numbers aren’t there.
There’s a lot of excitement around the idea of tightening ETH supply — but we’re still way too early to treat it as a confirmed scarcity narrative.
Here’s what matters:
📌 EIP-8363 — not EIP-8361 — is currently an open draft.
Meanwhile, around 2.44M ETH is waiting to enter staking, while the exit queue is currently empty.
And under the baseline proposal, regular staking yield could fall from roughly 2.6% → 1.2%.
That’s a pretty meaningful change.
So for now, I’m not rushing into the ETH/BTC long based on a scarcity thesis that hasn’t actually materialized.
The better approach?
👉 Keep your ETH productive.
Watch the proposal.
Watch staking flows.
Watch the supply dynamics.
If the numbers actually start tightening, then the scarcity trade becomes much more interesting.
Until then:
Don’t trade the headline. Trade the data. 👀
#AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SP500Eyes8000 ⚠️ Weak NFP Is Not Automatically Bullish
This is the part many crypto traders miss.
July NFP came in at -23K, massively below expectations of roughly 80K+.
Unemployment was 4.1%, and previous payrolls were revised down by 103K.
At first glance:
Weak jobs → more rate cuts → bullish BTC.
Simple, right?
Not necessarily.
There is a point where weak economic data stops being “dovish” and starts becoming recessionary.
That's the line I'm watching.
If markets believe the Fed can respond with easier policy, risk assets can benefit.
If investors start worrying about a deeper economic slowdown, the reaction can become risk-off.
🎯 So for $BTC and $ETH:
Weak data is bullish only if the market interprets it as monetary easing rather than economic damage.
That's the real trade.
#BTC #ETH #NFP #Recession #MacroTrading $BTC $ETH #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SP500Eyes8000 ETFs bought 1.1 billion in one week, but BTC stuck at 65,000: this isn't a bull market, it's a tug-of-war
Have you been feeling lately—
ETFs are buying, BTC is rising—does it seem like the bull market is back?
Wake up. Take another look at the board.
BTC is quoted at $64,957, up 3.38% over the past 7 days. Bulls are piling up ammunition, but the price seems stuck at the 65,000 level.
It's not that it can't rise. It's that someone is desperately holding the rope at the other end.
Let's look at the bulls first—they really have plenty of ammunition.
As of the week ending August 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs combined for net inflows of $1.1 billion, marking the best weekly performance since April. Among them, Bitcoin ETFs saw about $853.5 million in inflows, marking five consecutive trading days of net inflows. BlackRock IBIT alone contributed about $694 million, accounting for over 80%.
Ethereum ETFs are even stronger—five consecutive weeks of net inflows, setting the longest inflow record for 2026, with about $244.9 million in a single week.
Between August 3 and 5, Bitcoin ETFs injected a total of $626 million, with BlackRock IBIT alone absorbing $479 million, accounting for 76%.
Institutions are buying, whales are buying, and it hasn't stopped for five consecutive days.
Logically, BTC should have broken through 70,000 long ago.
But it just can't break through.
Because the rope at the other end was pulled even harder.
Federal Reserve.
At the July FOMC meeting, 9 voted in favor and 3 against, keeping rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. All three votes against supported a 25 basis point rate hike.
This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed has three unanimous opposing votes in the same decision.
CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has risen to 55%.
You read that right—the market isn't betting on rate cuts right now, it's betting on rate hikes.
Fed Chair Wash described this "holding on tight" as "a strict review of the economic situation" rather than a "pause in rate hikes."
Hawkish rhetoric and restrained action—but the market has already tightened up in advance.
Even worse, U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter was only 1.5%, below the expected 2.1%, and a significant drop from the 2.1% in the first quarter.
The economy is slowing, yet interest rates may still have to rise.
This is not a good combination.
Oil prices breaking 100, inflation rebounding, and rising expectations of interest rate hikes—three major obstacles are not missing.
Now let's look at the emotional side.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index once fell to 25, hovering in the "extreme fear" range. On August 9, it rebounded to 39, still in a state of panic.
ETFs are buying, but retail investors are afraid.
What's even more troubling is the trading volume—Bitcoin ETFs saw only $8.19 billion in weekly trading, down 9% month-on-week, marking the second lowest full trading week since October 2024.
Rising prices and shrinking volume, rebounds with low participation and low conviction are the easiest to suddenly collapse.
The regulators are not idle either.
The CLARITY bill failed to advance its vote before the Senate recess in August and has been postponed until after the reconvened on September 14. Polymarket data shows the bill's probability of passing within 2026 has dropped to 23%, while Galaxy Research predicted 67%-75% in May.
The regulatory vacuum period has lengthened, and uncertainty continues to suppress risk appetite.
Here's something to say to the heart:
In this current market, the left hand is pulled upward by ETFs, and the right hand is pulled downward by the Federal Reserve.
65,000 BTC has ETF funds supporting the bottom and a macro ceiling pressing in upward.
This is neither a bull market nor a bear market.
This is a tug-of-war.
What to do next? Two scripts:
Scenario A (Macro Dovish Turn): If inflation data falls and rate cut expectations reignite→ ETF inflows accelerate→ BTC breaks through 70,000.
Scenario B (Macro Continued Hawkishness): If nonfarm payrolls remain strong, oil prices continue to put pressure, and CPI exceeds expectations→ the anticipated rate hike in September is confirmed→ ETF inflows will be hedged by macro → 65,000 yuan will form a temporary top.
The best current strategy is not to bet on direction, but to wait for macro data to provide answers.
ETF inflows give you the confidence to "not fall," but macro hawkishness gives you the reality that "cannot rise."
One last honest word—
In this tug-of-war, the winner isn't necessarily the stronger side.
It was the side that waited for the other side to let go first.
$BTC $ETH $BICO #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? 📉 Weak Jobs Data Changes the Fed Conversation
The July NFP report delivered a huge downside surprise:
-23K jobs vs. ~83K expected.
Unemployment also came in at 4.1%, while earlier payroll figures were revised sharply lower. Wage growth slowed to 3.2% annually.
That's important for markets.
A softer labor market can increase expectations for easier monetary policy.
And that matters for:
💵 USD
📈 Treasury yields
📊 Equities
₿ Bitcoin
♦️ Ethereum
But I'm not blindly bullish.
The key question is whether the market sees this as:
“The Fed has more room to ease”
or:
“The economy is deteriorating too quickly.”
Those are two very different narratives.
For now, I would watch yields and the dollar alongside BTC/ETH rather than trading the NFP headline by itself.
$BTC $ETH #Macro #NFP #CryptoTrading $BTC $ETH #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SP500Eyes8000 This "whales eating meat, retail investors cutting losses" scenario is an eternal "food chain survival rule" in the crypto world. When wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC are frantically buying while small retail investors holding <0.01 BTC panic and exit, this is essentially a "precise redistribution" of wealth.
While retail investors are so anxious that they lose sleep due to the volatility between $63,000 and $65,000, or panic selling due to some hardware wallet security vulnerabilities (such as the recent rumored Coldcard incident), whales are pushing shopping carts at the exit waiting to buy in.
According to the latest on-chain data, since July 29, whale addresses have increased their holdings by about 20,000 BTC (worth approximately $1.25 billion) against the trend, while the number of micro-holders has dropped at the fastest rate since December 2024. What retail investors see as "doomsday" is, to whales, just "discount promotions."
This behavior of whales "going their own way, leaving retail investors with nowhere to go" actually provides three extremely critical signals for professional traders:
* The whales' continued accumulation essentially gives the market a "shot in the arm." Whenever the price falls below their average position opening cost zone (currently observed near $62,000), a huge support buy emerges. This means your stop-loss has a clear reference frame.
* When the coin price is declining or moving sideways but there is a large on-chain accumulation