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Russian Central Bank: Retail investors can trade $BTC $ETH $USDT
Russia has opened a door for cryptocurrency, but the crack is not wide.
According to a related article by bits.media, a recent draft released by the Russian central bank states that ordinary investors currently have only three types of crypto assets available for future trading: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT.
Within a single brokerage, crypto exchanger, or asset management institution, each person's annual purchase limit cannot exceed 300,000 rubles, and a risk test must be passed before trading.
Here are some trading restrictions: large market capitalization, high daily trading volume, and at least five years of price records in overseas markets.
However, professional investors face relatively relaxed restrictions, can trade other cryptocurrencies, and have no purchase limit, but must meet compliance requirements.
This plan is not about Russia fully liberalizing crypto trading, but rather gradually pushing funds that had previously been in the gray area into licensed institutions and regulatory accounts.
The relevant system is expected to take effect from September 1, and the Moscow Exchange has already begun preparing its own crypto asset custodian institution.
More notably, the Russian central bank ultimately left USDT, a US dollar stablecoin issued by a US company, joining the first batch alongside BTC and ETH, indicating that regulators prioritize liquidity scale over demand.
This time, Russia has not accepted the crypto world, because for most altcoins, the door to the compliant market remains tightly closed!My bottom expectations for BTC, BNB, and OKB
August 13, 2026.
Currently, I have different bottom expectations for Bitcoin, BNB, and OKB.
Bitcoin.
The bottom range should fall between 65%~70% at the highest point, i.e., the bottom price is between 44,100~37,800.
The main index moves slowly, and when it falls to the bottom, it tends to move sideways for a long time, such as a sideways movement for 4~6 months.
BNB。
The bottom range should drop 60%~65% at the highest point, i.e., the bottom price is in the 550~480 range.
Binance has quarterly burns, the platform continues to be profitable, and its historical decline should be lower than Bitcoin's, making the latter half of the bull market more resilient.
OKB。
The bear market bottom appeared first, with $60 → $65→ followed by the next pullback raising the bottom. In the later stages of the bull market, the sharp drop in Bitcoin was the opportunity to buy OKB on dips.
Top-tier platforms shouldn't rank outside the top 30 in market capitalization. The bear market is almost unaffected and has been quietly correcting its market value rankings.
Drawdown risk assessment.
Level 1: Bitcoin continues to decline weekly by 3%~5%.
Level 2: Bitcoin continues to decline weekly by 6%~9%.
Level 3: Bitcoin continues to decline weekly by 10%~20%.
A level 1 drop is hard to suppress OKB; a level 2 drop can slightly lower OKB; a level 3 plunge can push OKB down to its low.
But in the later stages of the OKB bear market, at best it will be close to a double bottom,
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price is set to hit a new low.
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(08/11,26) Reading notes and reflections:
No matter how low the price, avoid waste projects.
When a speculator pays too much and ignores fundamental value, there is no doubt he will face losses in the future.
Try to buy at undervalued prices.
Assuming the value remains unchanged, if the price falls from this level, downside risk will further decrease, while upside potential will be greater.
Avoid exiting during a downturn and buying at a peak.
Shift to defensive strategies in the late or early stages of a bull market, and adopt more aggressive approaches in the late or early stages of a bull market.
The more panicked the market, the more rare value opportunities are likely to arise.#英特尔ceo拟认购1200万美元股份 CEO spends 12 million to "bind": Intel's 20 billion gamble, will you bet along?
Chen Liwu has put in money again. $12 million, $95 per share, the same price as institutions, subscribing to their own share issuance. This isn't equity incentives, it's real money coming out of pocket. Including the 25 million bought when he took office in 2025, this CEO has already bet $37 million of his personal wealth at Intel.
When the news broke, the stock price jumped from the 95 issue price to just over 101 yuan, looking like the market was applauding.
But don't be too quick to be moved. Let's first look at how this account is calculated.
Intel's initial share issuance was originally set at 15 billion, but the subscription was so hot it jumped straight to 20 billion. Demand exceeded 100 billion, exceeding the quota by five times. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup jointly underwrote the funds. Institutions rushed to buy, retail investors followed suit.
The question is, what is the price of 20 billion? Based on the $95 issue price, about 210 million new shares will be added, with total equity swelling by about 3%. A 3% dilution for 20 billion in cash—sounds like a loss?
Peel off another layer below.
Why does Intel choose equity financing instead of borrowing? It has 48.5 billion in debt on hand, with a free cash flow gap of 44 billion from 2022 to 2025. Borrowing another 15 billion yuan would cost interest to drag down investment-grade ratings. Equity financing is the "lowest-cost option." Plain language: if debt can't be borrowed, you have to sell shares.
The timing of this round of financing is also intriguing. The stock price has risen 400% in the past 12 months and 164% this year. Taking advantage of valuations at high levels to cash in is a smart move. But the equity diluted from high-level financing is bought with real money—the cash you receive is paid by newcomers at higher prices.
Does Chen Liwu's 12 million count as a reassurance?
He participated in a public share issuance, not a buying up in the secondary market. He bought at 95, at the same price as institutions, more like "making a statement," not "I'm optimistic about doubling in the future."
InvestingPro offers an intrinsic value of only $64.87, which is 36% lower than the current price.
The real winner doesn't lie in this 20 billion, nor in the CEO's statement. Whether the 14A process can be mass-produced on schedule by 2028, whether advanced packaging EMIB can win TSMC's customers, and whether the foundry business can go from losing billions each quarter to making money $INTC $DRAM To be honest, no. These are three targets, three completely different engines. Nowadays, many people package them as "AI market trends," and I think this is the starting point for position management mistakes. You think you're buying with one logic, but in fact, you're buying three risks. Let's start with the news side: CPI. July CPI was +0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year; Core was +0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, all in line with expectations. But the key is not "good because it meets expectations." The key is that it dispels not rate cut expectations, but fear of rate hikes. The last time the FOMC had three voting members vote for a rate hike, this signal scared the market quite a bit. After the CPI was released, the market's pricing in a rate hike in September has been pushed below 50%. The nature of these two matters is completely different. Removing tail risk does not mean increasing fuel supply. So you can see the index reaction was actually quite restrained: the S&P +0.26% closed at 7,748.50, the Nasdaq +0.54% at 26,588.49, and the Dow Jones slightly down 0.04%. This is an environment that allows you to rise, not a single market cycle. Because the index barely moved, the stocks' surge last night had to have their own independent reasons. Indeed, there is. SPCX, +9.65%, closed at $146.15. This is pure news, pure emotion. Musk posted the company's all-hands meeting video on X. He said AI revenue could surpass all other SpaceX businesses as early as SeptemberAfter last night's CPI came out, my first reaction wasn't to chase BTC. Instead, the biggest market worry is the landmine, which hasn't exploded yet. July's CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, still well above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. But what the market truly cares about has never been whether 3.4% looks good, but about another issue: Is the Fed still needed to raise rates in September? The answer is moving toward the "not urgent" side. This is not a victory for inflation, just that it hasn't continued to worsen. July's CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, falling from 3.5% year-on-year to 3.4%; Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and fell to 2.5% year-on-year. Energy fell 1.5% month-on-month, gasoline fell 2.9%, and housing rose only 0.1%. After the data was released, the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose from about 51.6% the previous day to 59.6%, while rate hike bets dropped to around 40%. Many people tend to overunderstand this. This is not a report stating "inflation has been resolved," but rather a report stating that "inflation has not continued to worsen." 3.4% is still not low, and core inflation has not returned to 2%. However, month-on-month pressure has been mild, housing has not rebounded significantly, and the energy shock has not yet spread to broader service prices. For the Fed, this data provides a waiting window, not a reason to cut rates immediately. Easing the pressure to raise interest rates does not mean the cycle of rate cuts has restarted. The two concepts are very different. What the market fears most is not 3.4%, but another rate hike. Previously, the most dangerous trading chain was: rising energy prices triggering an inflation rebound; The Federal Reserve was forced to continue raising interest rates; US Treasury yields andAt the crossroads of BTC and ETH, the market is waiting for the next variable CPI meets expectations, partially easing macro uncertainty. Why is the market unable to decide on a direction? The key to observing the original text is the relative strength difference between BTC and ETH. While BTC remains weak, ETH is showing faster recovery. This divergence goes beyond mere stock-specific differences and can be read as a signal showing which asset will be placed first when the market resumes risk appetite. For ETH, $1,940 is a short-term turning point. If this level recovers, downward pressure is likely to ease, while if rejected, further downside risk remains valid. This means more than just technical support. In the ETH futures market, this price range is likely a concentrated area of liquidation, and volatility could increase when the price passes through this area. Looking at the market structure, the current price largely reflects the Fed's interest rate path. CPI hits expectationsAfter the CPI was released, my first reaction wasn't to chase the rally, but to check if BTC's leverage had become crowded again.
With stable macro data, expectations of rate cuts will naturally return. But at times like this, it's easy to fall into the illusion: once liquidity loosens, risk assets will keep rising. But whether real money enters the market depends on stablecoin inflows, spot transactions, and funding rates. If one is missing, I feel uneasy.
I'm not pessimistic about this wave, just don't want to call it bullish for now. It's okay if the price is a bit slower, but don't let leverage get ahead first. LinX's clumsy approach is still the same saying: look at the money first, then listen to the story.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be aware of the risks #$BTC The second half of computing power: From chip scrambling to power securing, Neocloud takes over the new AI mainline
Last night's CPI data met expectations but failed to stir up waves, but US stocks are already searching for new AI themes in the post-storage era. With the memory chip concept cooling off in the short term and optical communications driven by performance, CoreWeave and Nebius have proven with impressive financial reports that the new generation AI cloud, or Neocloud, is becoming a strong candidate for the second half of computing power trading.
After the earnings release, CoreWeave and Nebius closed up 19% and 34%, respectively. The former posted quarterly revenue of $2.58 billion and held orders worth hundreds of billions, while the latter saw a 454% increase in quarterly revenue and turned EBITDA positive for the first time. The results of both companies point to the same fact: all existing computing power capacity has been sold out, and the market remains in a severe supply shortage boom cycle.
The competitive barriers for new cloud providers are shifting from chip grabs to securing power. GPU shortages can be solved by pouring money, but substations and grid connection licenses are limited by physical laws and cannot be rushed. This scarcity allows short-cycle computing power premiums to be twice those of long-term contracts, and allows management to proactively hold off on 2027 capacity and firmly hold future pricing control in their own hands.
Details of both companies also overturn the short-selling logic of bears like Michael Burry. Nebius's hash rate auction price rose another 15% from the historical high, proving the asset has not depreciated; CoreWeave locked the A100 chip contract launched in 2020 to 2029. With top-tier new cards hard to get, old chips remain in short supply, and their commercial lifespan far exceeds the bear market's assumption.
Even more fatal, short sellers missed the excess profit during the renewal phase. After the first phase of the old cluster fulfillment, depreciation was fully depreciated and loans were repaid, and the contract was extended to 2029. After deducting basic electricity and operations, almost all of this converted into net profit. These old assets, considered zero on paper, are continuously generating high gross profit cash flow.
The rotation path for the AI main line is now very clear: storage expectations have peaked, optical communications will take over with performance, and Neocloud will establish its position through triple verification. Subsequent stock selection only needs to look at three criteria: whether you have electricity, whether order visibility is high, and whether old assets can still generate profit. Stocks with real resources and cash flow will continue to stand out, while pure concept speculation will be eliminated more quickly! $CRWV $NBIS #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another In early August, the Ethereum community was thrown into turmoil by a proposal numbered EIP-8363 called "Tapered Issuance Burn." The proposal suggests that as the proportion of staked ETH approaches half of the supply, the new issuance rewards available to validators should be gradually burned until they are completely replenished. In other words, the returns from staking ETH will become less and less, effectively breaking the livelihoods of treasury companies and staking pools. The debate erupted over EIP-8363 among Ethereum researchers, DeFi protocol founders, and listed ETH treasury companies was described by Aave founder Stani Kulechov as one of the most strongly opposed proposals in Ethereum's history. The core developer meeting on August 6 (ACDC #184) gave it a half-hour discussion time. What exactly is this proposal trying to address? Where is the divide between supporters and opponents? Once implemented, what impact will it have on listed companies betting on ETH staking yields? Odaily Planet Daily will provide a detailed analysis in this article. What kind of proposal is EIP-8363? Putting technical jargon aside for now, let's understand what EIP-8363 is doing in a straightforward way. Ethereum's current issuance mechanism can be likened to a money-to-money printing machine: the more people stake ETH, the larger the total issuance, but because...Solana nearly froze this Wednesday—Marinade Finance revealed a crisis that nearly caused the chain to come to a halt.
This isn't the first time. Last year there was a shutdown, this year it's congested, and now it's almost freezing—every time it's "just a little," but the frequency is really high.
"Almost causing an accident" is harder to assess than "actually having an accident." When an accident occurs, you can assess the loss and review it; If an accident almost happens, only a "false alarm" remains, but will it be worse next time? No one can say for sure.
How to tell if a chain is reliable? Don't just look at the white paper and TPS. Look at three practical things:
1. Historical downtime records: frequency, causes, repair speed
2. Validator distribution: degree of centralization, can one or two nodes destroy the entire chain?
3. Crisis response: How long after an incident is repaired, and whether the issue is transparent
Solana's problems are the first two—frequent outages and controversial validator concentration. It's not that it's unusable, but the risks are indeed higher than Ethereum's chains that haven't shut down for 10 years.
In short: don't put all your assets on one chain. Spreading across several chains with different risk characteristics is more stable than betting on a single "high-performance chain."#AIInfraEarningsWatch
AI infrastructure is entering the part of the cycle where revenue growth alone isn't enough anymore.
Investors now need to see whether enormous AI spending is actually turning into sustainable earnings.
The numbers are still impressive.
NVIDIA's latest reported quarter produced $81.6B in revenue, up 85% YoY, while Data Center revenue reached $75.2B, up 92% YoY.
AMD is also showing how quickly demand is moving toward the data center. Its 2025 Data Center revenue reached $16.6B, up 32%, driven by EPYC CPUs and Instinct accelerators.
But here's where I think the market is becoming more selective.
AI infrastructure isn't just GPUs anymore.
The stack now includes:
→ GPUs and accelerators
→ CPUs
→ networking
→ optical connectivity
→ memory
→ cooling
→ power generation
→ data-center construction
And the bottleneck is increasingly moving beyond the chip.
That's why upcoming earnings deserve attention beyond headline EPS.
I'm watching three things:
1. Revenue conversion
Are AI infrastructure orders becoming actual recognized revenue?
2. Capex efficiency
How much capital is required to generate each additional dollar of AI revenue?
3. Customer concentration
If a few hyperscalers are responsible for most demand, what happens if their capex growth slows?
My opinion:
The AI infrastructure thesis is still very strong, but the easy phase may be ending.
When almost everyone agrees that AI spending will grow, the next question becomes:
Who actually earns an attractive return on all that spending?
That's where the next phase of the AI trade gets interesting.
#OKXOrbitTopics #OKXTraderVoices
$XNVDA $NVDA $AMD Last night, the US July CPI was released, year-on-year at 3.4%, slightly down from June's 3.5%. Core CPI was 2.5%, basically in line with expectations. After the data came out, US Treasury yields fell, but risk assets didn't take the opportunity to surge—BTC hovered around $64,000 for a day before retreating. At 8:30 PM tonight, there is still July PPI, and funds are clearly waiting for the next signal.
This kind of "good news doesn't rise" market is itself information. This shows that what the market lacks right now is not macro data, but the confidence of incremental funds. US tech stocks fluctuated at high levels, and although BTC spot ETFs still saw net inflows throughout the week, their momentum cooled. Miners and long-term holders sold on high prices, and over $35 million of long orders were cleared in the past day. Money hasn't left, but no one dares to increase holdings—a classic stock market game.
When it comes to mainstream coins, the divergence is quite interesting. As of August 13, BTC was at $63,465, down 0.34% in 24 hours, stuck between the $63,000 support and the $65,400–$66,000 resistance range, still 49.7% away from the all-time high of $126,080; $ETH at $1,881, up 0.45% in 24 hours, but has pulled back 62% from the $4,946 high, more than 12 percentage points deeper than BTC; SOL is at $76.5, up 1.19% that day, showing greater resilience than both big players.
My view: BTC and ETH are not the same logic at all right now. BTC has fallen less because it has already been included in institutional allocation pricing frameworks—ETFs as a base, strategic reserve bills are being advanced, and its market trend is a trend confirmation; when it falls, someone buys in. ETH is different; the market has yet to settle on its value capture, L2 mainchain revenue distribution, and DeFi activity. The 62% drawdown is essentially a discount to confidence.
So the question of "who has more room for recovery" needs to be viewed from both sides. If the market recovers, ETH will rise 163% from $1,881 back to its previous high, with elasticity far exceeding BTC's 99% requirement, so the room for imagination is indeed larger; But if tonight's PPI exceeds expectations and the market weakens again, once ETH's key $1,850 level is broken, the next level is directly at $1,700 or even $1,550. The Fear and Greed Index is still hovering in the panic zone between 26 and 38, where there is room for recovery; survival must come first.
The core contradiction can be summed up in one sentence: liquidity expectations are improving, but market funds dare not trust it. $BTC Long-short ratio is 1.85, and retail bulls are too crowded, which itself is a hidden danger. At this stage, don't guess the market space and focus on positions—BTC looks to see if it can hold $63,000, ETH looks to $1,850. Whoever first breaks through their resistance level with increased volume is qualified to talk about a recovery.从投机资产到价值存储的蜕变 回顾比特币十五年的价格数据，可以观察到一个清晰的趋势——波动率长期处于下行通道。 从 2011 年单日波动率经常超过 30%，到 2024 年单日波动率多数时候控制在 5% 以内，比特币已经从早期纯粹的投机资产向成熟的价值存储资产过渡。 这种变化不是一夜之间发生的，而是一条缓慢但坚定的曲线。 早期比特币的价格像一艘没有压舱物的小船，随便一个消息就能掀起惊涛骇浪；如今它更像一艘万吨货轮，就算有风浪，晃动幅度也有限。 这种成熟化是多重因素叠加的结果。 衍生品市场的成熟，让投资者有了对冲工具，不再只能被动承受价格波动。 最初，你想做空比特币很难，只能现货卖出，现在有期货、期权，风险可以被管理起来。 机构资金的入场
带来的是更理性的交易行为。散户容易追涨杀跌，机构则更注重风险控制和资产配置，他们的参与让市场定价更有效率。 ETF 的推出
为传统资金打开了一扇合规的大门，大量此前无法直接持有比特币的养老金、保险资金得以进场，这些长线资金天然厌恶高波动，他们的存在本身就是稳定器。 做市商网络的完善
让市场深度大幅提升，大额买卖不再轻易砸出深坑。 这一整套基础设施，就像给📊 While $BTC struggles near $63K, these tokens are taking the spotlight**
Today's interesting detail isn't BTC's price — it's where attention and momentum are actually flowing. Bitcoin is on its third straight day of losses, capped below its 50-day EMA. But Virtuals Protocol and OKB have been the top performers across the broader market over the past 24 hours.
**Why this matters:**
When BTC weakens but the broader market doesn't follow the same direction, it often signals the start of capital rotation — away from major assets and into more specific, narrative-driven tokens. HYPE and NEAR also posted strong gains (4%+) in recent days, while UNI dropped 5%.
**What this suggests:**
The market is becoming more selective rather than moving as a homogeneous risk-on/risk-off block. Investors are starting to differentiate between projects based on specific fundamentals and narrative, not just broad BTC correlation.
**My take:** this kind of selective rotation often precedes a broader altcoin season — but only if BTC stabilizes. If BTC keeps weakening, this rotation could quickly reverse into broad risk-off instead.
💬 Are you tracking altcoin rotation, or staying fully focused on BTC/ETH?
*Personal analysis, not financial advice.*
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI $BTC 🧵 CPI came in exactly as expected, but BTC dropped anyway. Here's why**
1/ July CPI landed exactly at consensus — 3.4% YoY. No hot surprise, no cool surprise. On paper, a "boring" print.
2/ But BTC's reaction was paradoxical. Price initially bounced above $64,000, then gave those gains back and closed bearish, sliding to around $63,000 after three consecutive down days.
3/ This is a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern. The market had already largely priced in a dovish outcome (remember last week's weak jobs report). When CPI simply confirmed expectations — nothing more, nothing less surprising — there was nothing new to push buyers forward.
4/ BTC is now capped below its 50-day EMA ($64,523), and has been range-bound between $62,000-$66,000 for five straight weeks. The CPI print everyone was waiting for didn't deliver the breakout.
5/ My take: this is an important lesson — a macro event "meeting expectations" can sometimes be more bearish than a hot or cool surprise, especially when the market has already priced in a favorable scenario. The next catalyst likely comes from somewhere else: Fed rhetoric, earnings, or geopolitical developments.
💬 Were you surprised by this reaction, or were you expecting a "sell the news" pattern?
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI $BTC
*Personal analysis, not financial advice.*#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Musk made a major prediction in an internal meeting, expecting AI business to account for 99% of SpaceX's overall valuation within the next four to five years. He also set a timeline, predicting AI revenue could surpass all other businesses such as aerospace and Starlink as early as September, with a computing power target of 10 gigawatts by the end of next year. This statement essentially reshapes the market narrative: SpaceX is no longer just a satellite company, but an AI infrastructure company that relies on Starlink's cash flow to support its computing clusters.
Logically, Starlink is already a stable cash cow, with continuous profits injecting funds into the Colossus supercomputing center, renting computing power to major clients like Google and Anthropic. Computing power rental income has rapidly risen, with AI segment revenue surging 247% year-on-year in Q2. In the long term, the company wants to follow a "ground training, space inference" route, integrating Starlink satellite networks with AI computing power to create a unique integrated space-ground computing solution, which is also the capital market's willingness to offer high premiums.
But it's important to distinguish between vision and reality. Currently, aerospace and Starlink are the main drivers of profit, while the AI sector remains heavily invested and burns money, and large-scale computing power expansion requires sustained and substantial capital expenditures; The 100 GW computing power revenue estimate is based on optimistic assumptions of high computing power prices and abundant customer orders. If the industry experiences oversupply and falling rents, profit expectations are easily disappointed.
On the short-term market front, these statements will strengthen market AI growth expectations and support valuation sentiment; There are two biggest medium- and long-term variables: the boom cycle of computing power leasing and the commercialization progress of Grok's large model. The aerospace sector will not disappear; in the future, it will become more of a supporting foundation for AI business, and company valuation fluctuations will increasingly be tied to the prosperity of the AI industry chain $BTC $ETH $SNDK $SNDK $SPCX $XAU
未来OKX 这类大型加密交易所，最大的新增市场之一会来自 RWA，尤其是股票、ETF、国债、货币基金和其他传统金融资产的链上交易。 原因来自交易所手里已经沉淀的大量美元稳定币资金、成熟的撮合系统、永续合约体系、全球用户和全天候交易基础设施，RWA给这批资金增加了新的风险资产选择。
最近几个月这个趋势已经非常明显。
OKX在7月上线 Unified Tokenized Stocks，把英伟达、苹果、微软、特斯拉以及ETF等资产直接放进现货市场，交易对直接采用USDT。8月又在继续增加新的股票资产。整个代币化股票市场截至8月12日已经达到约25.4亿美元，而2026年初这个市场规模还小得多。
这里最重要的变量其实是稳定币。现在全球稳定币规模接近3000亿美元，其中USDT占据最大的份额，USDT和USDC加起来长期占据绝大多数市场。大量资金已经完成了从银行美元到链上美元的迁移。它们可以作为交易保证金，可以做DeFi，可以等待BTC和ETH机会，也可以长期停留在USDT里。
未来大型交易所会越来越接近全球资产交易平台。
未来已来。The July CPI data just released by the US last night is as follows:
Overall CPI year-on-year: 3.4% (in line with expectations, previous value 3.5%)
Core CPI year-on-year: 2.5% (in line with expectations, previous value 2.6%)
Inflation data cooled steadily as expected, with no unexpected rebound, so overall the market was not significantly affected. However, AI and storage are bucking the trend! For mainstream coin markets, the impact is minimal, but as for how to open positions, it's best to wait for the right time before reconsidering! #7月CPI平稳落地, September rate hike expectations cool #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
$BTC $ETH $SPCX #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled down — $BTC
CPI is stable, but $BTC hasn't moved—the market is waiting for a "surprise."
Looking at the CPI data: 3.4%, core 2.5%, both exactly met expectations. Gasoline prices fell 2.9%, driving energy prices down 1.5% month-on-month, which is the main reason CPI remained stable.
The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from nearly 50% a week ago to around 40%, while the probability of holding it unchanged rose to 60%. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September drops to just 42%.
And what about BTC? It jumped from 63,200 to 64,400, up less than 2%, crashing back to around 63,500. The Nasdaq rose 0.54%, gold reversed in a V-shape and rose over 1%, and BTC lay flat as if nothing had happened.
"Meeting expectations" is itself a problem. The market had already priced in—before the CPI release, BTC spot ETFs had net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling $850 million, and all the purchases had been spent.
Going deeper: CPI of 3.4% is still 1.4 percentage points short of the Fed's 2% target. Housing costs rose 0.1% in July, accounting for two-thirds of the overall increase. Oil prices are still hovering above 80, and geopolitical risks have not been resolved. Someone said the blunt truth: "July's CPI data is moderate enough to reduce the probability of a rate hike in September, but long-term price pressures have not yet been lifted."
Next, watch a few key points: tonight's PPI, the Jackson Hole annual meeting at the end of August, the September 4 nonfarm payroll, and the September 11 CPI. What truly makes BTC break out is not "in line with expectations," but "surprise"—either inflation falling significantly below expectations or employment data weakening more than expected.
Meeting expectations means having no direction; without direction, you don't move. SanDisk and Hynix parts.
Currently, I personally think these two stocks are likely to rebound after a deep drop in the short term. As for how they will move next, I think the key point is whether these two stocks will fall at the resistance level above.
Therefore, in the short term, it is recommended that everyone avoid acting rashly for now.
If you want to short: SanDisk will wait around 1500, Hynix might be around 1300, then consider trying a light position, but I still recommend holding back, since the current market is in a highly volatile state. Personally, I suggest waiting for a deep drop before picking up a rebound, which is safer than shorting at high levels.
In the long run, if you value its future potential as a company, you might consider making a regular regular purchase over the long term.
On the news front, this rebound was mainly driven by the collective surge in memory stocks over the past two days, with SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Micron all rising together. The main reason was the joint announcement of open technical specifications for HBF, and several foreign investors like RBC raising their target prices, directly calling out $200
Additionally, reports that Singapore's sovereign wealth fund Temasek plans to invest directly in Samsung and SK Hynix have also stirred sentiment across the entire community.
In terms of financial reports, SanDisk's latest quarterly revenue grew by 371.6% year-on-year, with gross margin soaring to 84.6%, which is quite impressive; However, despite such a large increase, both stocks currently have P/E ratios around 18-20 times, which is relatively low compared to other AI-related semiconductor stocks. The market interprets this rally as solid fundamental support北京时间 8 月 12 日，Hyperliquid 创始人 Jeff Yan 在官方 Discrod 频道内公布了一则更新进展，由于原表述过于偏技术向，所以很多人都忽略或是低估了该则动态的意义。 字面直译 以下为 Jeff Yan 原表述的直接翻译。 根据 Builder 的反馈，HIP-1 将增加以下由代币部署者控制的函数：scaleWei { token, totalWei, referenceToken, systemAddress }。 该操作会根据用户所持有的 referenceToken 余额，按比例自动将 token 的 totalWei 从 systemAddress 转移给这些用户。计算过程中会向下取整，并且不包括 systemAddress 自身。例如，当 token == referenceToken 时，这个功能可以用于重新计价（redenomination）。 systemAddress 有两种可能：Core → EVM 的系统地址； 由部署者指定、并能够提供签名的 Treasury（资金库）地址。 需要注意的是，EVM 本身并不存在这种原子化（atomic）Don't be a Monday morning quarterback; tonight's PPI will most likely meet expectations as well.
Yesterday, July CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, month-over-month only 0.1%,
confirming mild inflation.
Tonight's PPI annual rate is expected at 4.9% (previous 5.5%). If it meets expectations, it will just continue the cooling narrative established by the CPI, not a new surprise.
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI The U.S. SEC has approved Franklin Templeton to use its on-chain BENJI system to manage the cash liquidity of its funds. This asset management company, which manages trillions of dollars in assets, has received regulatory approval for "running core operations on blockchain."
This is different from buying ETFs. On the same day, Goldman Sachs spent $2.25 billion to acquire Neos, obtaining BTC and Ethereum ETF products that offer crypto exposure to clients; Franklin, however, is moving its own backend by directly putting fund cash management, clearing, and share records on-chain.
The regulatory attitude is also changing. The SEC no longer only approves a product for trading but allows regulated institutions to embed on-chain systems into key entrusted operational processes. Blockchain is shifting from being an "investment target" to "infrastructure."
When asset management giants use blockchain to manage their own money, not just to trade crypto for clients, adoption is truly ingrained at the core.SK Hynix is expanding NAND production; in the short term, it's due to strong demand for AI storage, but in the long term, it's the most familiar feeling of storage cycles.
Now, enterprise SSDs, AI servers, and inference data centers are all relying on NAND. With strong prices and full orders, expansion sounds reasonable. The problem is that the storage industry makes the same mistake at every boom: everyone thinks shortages will last, so they start production together. When new capacity is concentrated, prices drop faster than turning back.
So this news shouldn't be taken lightly as good news.
It shows that AI demand is truly fierce, so strong that SK Hynix is willing to keep increasing its holdings; But it also reminds investors that once supply expectations rise, the market will worry in advance that profit margins will be squeezed. The biggest fear in storage stocks isn't that no one buys, but that too many people simultaneously believe the bull market won't end.
I care more about the pace of expansion and long-term contract prices, rather than just the phrase "strong AI demand." In cyclical industries, the most profitable times are often when risks start to emerge.
#海力士推进NAND扩产, storage supply expectations are rising #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
The CPI meeting expectations is not exactly a surprise; What really changed is that the market's pricing for a "September rate hike" has started to loosen.
🚨 July CPI was delivered at 3.4% year-on-year, with a core 2.5%, basically in line with expectations.
After the data came out, the probability of no rate hike in September rose to nearly 60%.
On the surface, it seems positive, but the key is not "how much CPI has dropped," but rather that the Fed has lost one reason to continue raising rates.
The market has never been trading about this CPI, but about whether tightening can be maintained in the future.
In the past, the biggest fear was inflation rebound→ forced to continue raising rates.
Now this logic is loosening.
Funds are starting to trade another path: inflation cools → rate hike expectations decline → short-term US Treasuries retreat, → dollars weaken, → risk asset recovery, BTC will also benefit.
But the problem is: this is not yet an easing cycle.
Because the short-term end is loosening while the long-term end is not, fiscal deficits, debt scale, and term premiums are still supporting long-term interest rates.
To put it bluntly, whether the Fed wants to raise rates is one thing; whether the market believes it will ease is another.
Next, let's look at these three things:
(1) Will the US dollar continue to weaken?
(2) Can the 10-year Treasury truly decline?
(3) Whether BTC capital flows back
If it's just CPI that looks good but long-term rates are high and BTC doesn't follow, that's just a cooling of expectations, not a cyclical reversal.
Only when the dollar, US Treasuries, and BTC funds all shift simultaneously will the market begin trading: the next liquidity cycle.PART 4: Hormuz can become a Fed story Here's the part many crypto traders miss. The Fed doesn't set policy based on Bitcoin. It watches the economy and inflation. If an oil shock becomes large and persistent, markets can worry about renewed inflation pressure. That can create a difficult situation: Growth weakens + inflation stays elevated. That's a very different environment from falling inflation and easy monetary policy. For crypto, the key variables to watch become: 📌 Fed rate expectations #闪迪今晚看什么
Tonight, I will be tracking PPI data and $SNDK Investor Day in real time, and posting key information as soon as possible.
This article is just a warm-up, and I'll also share my observation framework for tonight below 👇
Yesterday, SanDisk closed at 1,344.29, up 5.76%; Micron, WDC, and Seagate also rose, but all opened higher and then retreated, indicating sector recovery, but unstable buying and support. Wait until tonight to confirm the trend.
Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US will release the July PPI, and at 9 PM, SanDisk will hold an investor day. PPI affects interest rates and risk appetite, while Investor Day tests SanDisk's own business narrative.
I categorize possible signals into three categories:
[Bullish Signal]
Investor Day provides reconcilable operating growth, and the overall market remains stable after the PPI;
SNDK has strengthened compared to MU, WDC, and STX, with gains supported by trading volume and price.
[Bearish Signal]
The company only has a forward demand narrative; expansion and capital expenditures lack explanation for returns, utilization, and cash flow;
PPI pushed yields higher, the Nasdaq weakened, and SNDK surged but then retreated, underperforming its peers.
[Sideways Signal]
Company information is positive but not exceeding expectations, and the PPI and overall market direction remain unclear;
SNDK fluctuated with the sector, with increased volume but no breakout or leading rally.
Right now, I've only opened SanDisk Grid as an observation warehouse, and only enter after signal confirmation.
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession. #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近, differences remain in the financial reports #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
The CPI data has finally settled without any surprises, which is the biggest positive news for the current market.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
Inflation data continued to fall as expected, and the Fed's confidence in stubbornly shouting "rate hikes again" has been completely drained. The current main trading theme has officially shifted from "will there be another rate hike?" to "will there be a 25 basis point cut or 50 basis points in September?"
For the crypto world, this macro logic is actually quite straightforward:
The stone pressing down on his head fell
Previously, funds had been watching closely, fearing that a rebound in inflation would further tighten macro liquidity. Once the data came out, the situation was lifted, and short-term risk aversion eased significantly.
Liquidity has shifted to benefit risk assets
With high expectations of rate cuts, the US dollar index weakens, and macro hot money will inevitably seek higher yields. Bitcoin and high-quality mainstream assets will see significant support in the upcoming window period.
Think a lot, but don't go all-in blindly
Rate cuts are a long-term positive, but we should be wary of the market speculating on a "recession" next. If US stocks experience sharp fluctuations due to recession expectations, the crypto market will inevitably follow suit in the short term. The safest strategy at this stage is still to seize the dip to buy shares and not blindly chase high prices when prices rise.
The toughest phase in macroeconomics is over; the rest is left to time. Have you held onto the spot market securely? How much do you think Bitcoin can surge this time? The latest CPI inflation report is purring, not roaring. With both headline CPI (3.4%) and Core CPI (2.5%) landing exactly as expected, the market can breathe a sigh of relief. There were no unwelcome surprises. More importantly, both figures show a slight downtick from the previous period. This steady, gentle decline is precisely what the Federal Reserve has been aiming for. It's a classic sign of disinflation, inflation is losing steam, but not falling off a cliff. So, what does this mean for #马斯克一句话, SPCX has retold the AI story
99% are AI, 1% are rockets.
And my short position happened to be stuck right in the middle.
$SPCX Broke through $146, rising from around $108, with an increase of over 35%. My short position currently has a floating loss of 200U, close to -531%, but I still haven't chosen to exit.
The reason is simple: it's not that I can't see the market's enthusiasm, but I'm waiting for the market to give the real answer.
Musk signaled at an internal meeting: AI business revenue in September is expected to exceed the total of other businesses, with computing power reaching 10GW by year-end, and projected to correspond to annual revenue in the $300 to $500 billion range. He even suggested that AI could account for 99% of SpaceX's value in five years.
This story is shocking enough.
What does $500 billion in annual revenue mean?
Nvidia's recent revenue has only reached the tens of billions of dollars, while an AI business that hasn't fully commercialized is targeting $500 billion.
This is no longer ordinary growth; it feels more like redefining a company's business model.
The market clearly bought in.
The SPCX surged from around 108 to above 146, with funds betting with real money. A little over a month ago, the market was discussing rockets, Starlink, and aerospace businesses; Now, the market is discussing AI, computing power, and the trillion-yuan future imagination.
The same stock, just changing the narrative, completely changes the valuation logic.
Sometimes the market doesn't need financial reports or data—it just needs a strong enough story.
But what I want to see is the reality that follows the story.
Because stories can drive prices higher, but they can also create bubbles. The market can trade expectations in advance, but ultimately you still need numbers—orders, revenue, and profit—to prove it.
My short positions remain, not because I deny AI's development nor because I reject its future direction.
It's just that I don't think $500 billion in revenue will be instantly realized just because of a meeting or a single sentence.
Next, I will focus more on financial reports, orders, and commercial implementation.
He said 99% is AI.
And I chose to stand among the remaining 1%, waiting for the data to give us an answer.
Stories can ignite market trends, but what truly supports prices is always the results.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Is the large-scale pullback in tech stocks really over? Let's talk about the underlying logic behind SK Hynix's crash
1. Leverage reduction: Step-by-step forced liquidation, self-recurring downward cycle
The main driver of this round of sharp declines is the concentrated flight of leveraged funds.
a. HBM was booming in the first half of the year, with a large number of retail and institutional investors in the Korean market increasing leverage to hold SK Hynix, resulting in related leveraged ETFs trading volume reaching four times that of individual stocks;
b. After a slight pullback in stock prices, a large number of leveraged accounts trigger forced liquidations, leading to more and more sell-offs, creating a stampede and even dragging down the Korean stock circuit breaker;
C. Major global markets are simultaneously withdrawing from tech financing opportunities, with severe selling pressure on high-level storage stocks.
2. US ADR listings: All positive news has been exhausted, cross-market arbitrage crashes Korean stocks
Originally, everyone thought listing on the US stock market was a big boost, but it turned into a direct sell-off.
a. The stock price surged early before listing, which is favorable for cashing out funds;
b. US ADRs have a maximum premium of 51%, with arbitrage funds shorting Korean shares;
c. Retail investors cannot cross-market arbitrage to erase price differences, and individual stocks remain under pressure.
3. Escalation of US-Iran geopolitical tensions suppresses high-valuation growth stocks
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is tense, with both sides continuing to clash, triggering a chain reaction in the technology sector;
a. Oil prices surged sharply, inflation expectations rebounded, the market lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts, and overvalued tech stocks came under pressure;
b. Funds are fleeing from risk avoidance, shifting from high-volatility AI storage and chips to gold, oil, and gas defense sectors;
c. Market risk appetite has declined across the board; even a small negative side can amplify panic and intensify the storage sell-off wave.#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 近期美国房地产陷入低成交、低流动、高利率格局，成屋销售年化已经低于2008年初危机初期水平。虽然不等于马上复刻次贷危机，但楼市、就业、传统资本开支同步走弱，叠加AI繁荣掩盖实体经济疲弱，这套宏观环境，会从四个维度传导到比特币等数字货币盘面。 一、楼市“锁定效应”，间接改变美联储降息节奏 高房贷利率带来房屋锁定效应，屋主不愿置换、买家被高成本挡在门外，楼市交易量持续萎缩。房价虽还没有全面暴跌，但已经存在局部回调风险。 房价下行会打击居民财富效应，压制美国居民消费，实体经济数据会进一步走弱。 市场会交易“经济走弱倒逼美联储降息”的预期： 1. 若市场强化降息预期，美债收益率下行，理论上会利好比特币这类风险资产； 2. 但要注意：仅仅经济差不等于立刻宽松，如果通胀反复，美联储会继续维持高利率，加密资产依旧承压。 二、K型经济撕裂：AI独强，传统经济走弱的矛盾局面 当前美国经济呈现明显K型分化：接近一半企业资本开支涌向AI赛道，撑起美股科技板块；房地产、制造业、汽车等传统板块持续降温，剔除AI投资后，实体经济已经十分疲弱。 映射到加密市场： 1. 资金扎堆BTC holding near $63.9K while CPI eases hike expectations suggests macro relief is supporting the market, but the muted gains across BTC, ETH and SOL are not a convincing risk-on signal.
Gold’s haven bid and rising Hormuz pressure still argue for caution. My read is that crypto remains in a liquidity-supported consolidation, with AI and chip optimism too narrow to drive a broader breakout yet.
Not advice, just analysis.SPCX Climbs Back to $145!
Ten days ago, it was around $105, and now it has rebounded to $146. Why is the market showing little movement, but $SPCX has made its own move?
SPCX does not follow ordinary crypto logic.
Behind it is SpaceX stock, and each token can be exchanged for the corresponding securities at a 1:1 ratio through Backpack Securities. Therefore, the core variables affecting it are not just BTC and market liquidity, but also SpaceX's own performance, valuation, and stock supply and demand.
As of August 13, SPCX had risen about 9% in the past 24 hours and about 33% over seven days, clearly outperforming the crypto market over the same period.
The two negative factors that previously suppressed prices are now being re-absorbed by the market.
SpaceX's first financial report after going public showed quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion, a year-over-year increase of over 90%; Although it still lost $541 million, the loss was less than half of market expectations.
Meanwhile, over 900 million internal shares were unlocked. Everyone was waiting for selling pressure to crash the market, but on the day the lock-up was lifted, the stock price actually rose by 6.1%.
So I think this rebound isn't just about hyping up new stories, but more like a market discovery: performance isn't as bad as imagined, and the pressure to unlock shares isn't as great as imagined.
On-chain trading has added another layer of RWA hype to SPCX.
SPCX can be traded 24/7, self-custody, wallet transfers, and converts tokens and traditional securities via Backpack.
Currently, its on-chain 24-hour turnover has exceeded $6.3 million, an increase of about 267% compared to the previous day. In other words, the market is currently trading two lines simultaneously:
One is fundamental recovery for SpaceX;
The other is the incremental story of US stock assets being listed on-chain.
It took only about ten days to go from $105 to $146.
But what really matters to watch next is not whether it can suddenly pull up another bar, but whether it can hold steadily above the $135 IPO offering price and whether the newly unlocked tokens can continue to be absorbed by the market.
If trading volume can remain, this may not just be an oversold rebound; If volume and price fall quickly, it will still be a highly volatile new stock.
At least for now, the SPCX has shifted from "everyone is waiting for it to fall" to "those in short positions are starting to worry about missing out." $SPCX #7月CPI平稳落地, September rate hike expectations cool down by #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Trump gave BTC status, not a guaranteed price
The Trump administration continues to promote the integration of digital assets with traditional financial systems, and the U.S. policy direction is noticeably more friendly than before. Relevant White House executive orders
As a result, the market easily developed the illusion that since the US has started supporting cryptocurrencies, $BTC's price should have policy backing.
But the state's recognition of the importance of an asset is two completely different matters from the state's commitment to maintain its market price.
Policies can help banks, funds, and payment companies more easily engage with digital assets, reducing the regulatory discounts the industry faces over time. This will expand potential buyers of BTC and boost institutional confidence in holding it.
But policies cannot cancel market cycles, nor can they prevent declines caused by high interest rates, economic recessions, or leveraged liquidations.
Even though BTC has entered national strategic discussions, it remains an asset whose price is determined by global markets. Institutions can buy due to policy improvements and sell when risk budgets decrease.
This is actually very similar to the situation with gold.
Central banks holding gold long-term does not mean gold can only rise daily; National reserve status provides a long-term demand base, not short-term price guarantees.
What BTC truly gains is a change in the logic of the lower bound of valuation.
In the past, the market worried whether BTC would be completely excluded from the financial system by major economies; Now, what is more worth discussing is how much countries, businesses, and funds are ultimately willing to allocate to. The first type of risk is decreasing, while the latter demand needs time to gradually form.
Therefore, when facing Trump's crypto positive news, traders need to distinguish three levels the most.
The first layer is speeches and policy statements, which mainly influence short-term sentiment; The second layer is regulatory rules and the implementation of financial products, which determine whether institutions can enter; The third layer is the real allocation of funds, which will change supply and demand relationships.
If you only see the first layer and chase the rally, it's easy to face a pullback after the positive news materializes; If you ignore the long-term changes at the second and third layers, you may underestimate the structural impact of BTC institutionalization.
Trump can move BTC from a fringe asset to the political center, but the market will still price it with interest rates, liquidity, and cash flows.
$BTC The most important change is not that it won't fall in the future, but that with each drop, more buyers are willing to study and position it.
Its status determines whether it stays at the table for long, and the money determines what price it is sitting at today.$OKB
Since August 7th, OKB has risen 20 points, from 85 to around 105 at most, and today it jumped another 8 points. That's impressive?
Do you know what's going on? Tell me
Compared to Binance's BNB, Ouyi's platform token OKB has a very low market cap. #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled down #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
Same world, different fate; money speaks for itself in data, proving who was born to the biological mother and who was raised by the stepmother.
At 8:30, July CPI was released. 3.4%, 2.5%, 0.1%—all three figures met expectations, no more, no less. According to the script, with inflation cooling and rate hikes easing, risk assets should rise, and it should be a happy situation.
The first to move was Bitcoin $BTC: 64,400 surged up, but when the data came out, 63,800 fell back, and all the $600 surge was fully withdrawn. Ethereum $ETH was even more decisive, touching 1924 and dropping to 1872, with no resistance. Two weeks of expectations were bought early, and the data landing became the whistle to exit.
The US stock market is showing a different pattern. SK Hynix rose 9%, SanDisk rose 5%, Seagate rose 7%, and the storage sector collectively ignited the market. SpaceX closed at $146, 9.7% for the day, up nearly 40% from the low of 108. Gold was also strong, hitting 4448 in spot trading and closing at 4408, holding firm again at the 4400 level.
For the same CPI, the crypto world reads "all the good news has been released," while the US stock market reads "soft landing confirmation."
After that, everyone went their separate ways. Bitcoin hovered around 63,500, couldn't hold 63,000, and there was no solid buying from below; US AI stocks are still surging, and Morgan Stanley is already saying valuations are high. The warnings from both sides are in exactly opposite directions.
As for "digital gold"—this year gold $XAU rose 9%, Bitcoin fell 11%, and market behavior has long been divided. Crypto-native funds and leveraged traders are still on the sidelines or waiting for the "final dip," emotionally not fully emerging from the shadows of previous deleveraging and blowdowns.
• Traditional/AI-related risk-averse funds are still chasing the more certain narrative feast of the moment, with limited interest in BTC, an asset that has not yet started.
• Although macro and regulatory pressures have eased marginally, they are far from being fully optimistic. As a result, the market has fallen into a stalemate where neither side wants to act first.
This stalemate itself is a window of opportunity. True consensus formation often lags behind—by the time everyone sees a clear signal, the price has already finished the first stage. Those who secure positions early bear the risks of "timing mismatch" and "emotional isolation," which leads to better entry costs.Many of the biggest bubbles or leverage-driven bull markets in history have gone through the craziest phase, continuously squeezing shorts until the most well-known and stubborn short sellers in the market are forced to surrender, only then does the market truly approach its end.
When I judged the phase bottom at the end of July, I used the ETH wave from February this year as an example. The main force kept squeezing Yi Lihua until he finally couldn't hold on and surrendered, which instead became a signal for a phase bottom. After that, ETH rebounded and oscillated for three months before finally dropping again.
I think the logic for the US stock market this time is very similar, just with the roles reversed.
The phase bottom happened when Citadel crushed Leopold and took over his chips. For the phase top, I want to wait until big short sellers like Burry are forced to surrender before considering shorting.
Right now, Burry not only hasn't surrendered but is continuing to increase his short positions, so these shorts themselves are potential short squeeze fuel. As long as the trend and liquidity remain, the bulls have the motivation to keep squeezing the shorts higher.
So in a bull market, I think you shouldn't blindly short. Short-term shorts or pullback trades are fine, but don't stubbornly fight the trend just because the price has risen a lot.
Many times in a bull market, it doesn't end when valuations become reasonable; it ends after the shorts are squeezed out, until even the most determined shorts start doubting themselves and are forced to cover, and the bulls run out of new fuel and strength is truly exhausted, only then does the top become easier to form.
Since Burry is still adding shorts, at least from this perspective, I think the short squeeze isn't over yet. Can $BTC break through to 70,000? This question has been flooded with backend questions lately. Let me be straightforward with my judgment: bullish, no hesitation!
Why? Don't be fooled by the nervous pullback during this period; if you carefully analyze the structure, the lows are actually slowly rising, and the decline is weaker and weaker each wave. If this isn't bottoming, what is? To put it simply, bears' energy is exhausting, while bulls are quietly gathering strength. Climbing back above 64,000 is not a big problem, I don't think it's a big deal. Seeing 70,000 this month isn't just a fantasy—as long as no black swan suddenly appears, the script is likely to go this way.
As for $ETH, $ETH is still in a volatile phase, but this kind of oscillation is actually quite easy to do. Within the range, you can still get a dozen points in the swing. The key point is that the last two dips near 1891 were quickly pulled back, indicating capital is holding the bottom and the support is quite strong. In the afternoon, it did push up to 1899, just a little short of touching 1900, but it was pushed back again. Now it's lingering around the 1894-1896 range, so it can't go any further.
Next, we'll see how the US stock market opens at 9:30 PM to set the pace. I'm still bullish, and I feel ETH has a chance to push up tonight, reaching the 1910-1920 range—something to look forward to!$SNDK The hourly chart has started a bearish streak—can it continue to fall? Can it break below 1300? 🔥
The 1-hour chart shows consecutive bearish moments, indicating short-term weakness, with heavy selling pressure above, so it might still push downward. But I'm not very willing to think about breaking 1300 directly, because there was clearly large funds holding it up at 1311, making it hard to break through in one go.
The profit from the 1376 short position has been fully cushioned now, so my mindset is still relatively stable. Anyway, the stop-loss has already been pushed to break even; the rest is just to see whether it goes to 1330 or 1320, then exit in batches once it arrives, not coveting the last breath.
If you haven't entered yet, don't chase at 1352—wait for it to bounce back first. Catching the flying knife is pointless.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled Putting aside the stars and seas, is SpaceX's ultimate future value actually in AI?
Recently, SpaceX gained popularity again because of the Starship launch, and everyone marvels at Musk's hardcore space dream, believing that SpaceX's ultimate value must be on Mars and in the vast universe. But the day before yesterday, while chatting with a few investment friends, I suddenly had a seemingly unconventional idea: if the timeline is extended long enough, SpaceX's greatest future value might not be space, but AI.
Sounds a bit ridiculous, right? How did someone who makes rockets end up working in AI?
Think about it: rocket launches may be cool, but they have physical and commercial limits. Even if Musk really drove launch costs to bargain prices, the global annual space launch market would only be that large. Mars is a great story, but in the future our generation can see, it's unlikely to become a high-profit commercial closed loop.
So, why is Musk still going so hard to send satellites into space?
Actually, Starlink is not just a simple space broadband router. From a first-principles perspective, it is actually the world's largest distributed server cluster wrapped outside the Earth. The latest Starlink satellites are already trying to connect directly to phones. As chip performance improves, it is only a matter of time before edge computing nodes or AI inference chips are directly integrated into satellites.
What does this really mean?
This represents SpaceX quietly building the world's only physical AI network. Future advanced AI will require not only supercomputing power in the cloud, but also ubiquitous low-latency connectivity and edge computing capabilities. Whether it's autonomous driving, humanoid robots, or various IoT devices, all need a communication framework that can span oceans, deserts, and mountains. Only SpaceX can deliver this distributed computing network in space at an extremely low cost.
In other words, space is just a means; AI and data networks are the foundation that will continuously generate huge profits.
Moreover, SpaceX and Tesla are fully integrated at the technical level. The construction of Starship and the iteration of the Raptor engine are actually heavily utilizing AI for structural optimization and fluid simulation. Not to mention, if the humanoid robot Optimus is to be sent to Mars as a workforce in the future, Musk will have to train top-tier physical embodied intelligence in SpaceX scenarios.
Space is SpaceX's skin; AI is its quietly growing flesh and blood.
Space exploration offers the most extreme edge scenarios; the algorithms and engineering capabilities trained in these scenarios, when applied to Earth's physical industry, represent unmatched dominance. Every rocket Musk launches in space is actually feeding the most hardcore engineering data to AI models on Earth.
In short, the starry sea is humanity's grand epic, but AI is the commercial cash flow that sustains this epic. SpaceX's Starship is just a cargo truck transporting servers into space, while the Starlink network hanging in the sky is the AI brain of future Earth and even multi-planetary civilizations.
Here's a question for you: if one day SpaceX's Starlink computing network and Tesla's robots fully merge, do you think it will become a real-life version of Skynet, or lead humanity toward the dawn of interstellar civilization?
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% According to the latest Realized Cap RSI data, BTC has entered a low observation zone in historical cycles.
(1) BTC has now entered the historical low zone of RSI <30.
(2) This round's RSI hit a stage low of 13.02 on July 18, 2026. Compared to the lowest values of the previous three cycles, the current temporary low is still higher.
(3) Historically, in the 2015, 2018, and 2022 cycles, the Realized Cap RSI lowest point appeared later than the BTC price bottom, lagging by 29, 67, and 63 days respectively.The CPI is finally out, in line with expectations.
Overall 3.4%, core 2.5%, which is roughly as the market predicted. After the data came out, the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose from 48% to 60%, with gold and BTC rising first then falling—a classic case of "buying expectation and selling facts."
In the short term, cooling inflation does mean the Fed doesn't need to rush to raise rates for now, but long-term rates remain above 5%, with fiscal deficits and term premiums holding up. Tonight's PPI is the next key step.
Back to $BTC. The CPI data gave a short-term breather, and the 65,000 level is temporarily stable. But don't worry—data that meets expectations is unlikely to be the engine for a breakout. If the PI continues to cool tonight, the market will begin to truly bet on the "end of rate hikes."
Let's wait for tonight's PPI to decide. What's the rush? #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled down Excess returns = a good company that experiences a reversible crisis× a very low stock price killed by emotions× huge market growth potential× the square of the time to patiently wait. Analysis Purpose: Find a mission-driven, straightforward business with a deep moat, operated by honest and rational management, cross-confirming whether the current stock price is below its intrinsic value and the right time to buy. Crisis Investment Model NO.134 Today's Research Target — Securitize Corp. (SECZ) Securitize Corp. (SECZ) Core Key Summary · Preview Report Date: 2026-08-11 | Current Price: 6.92 USD (Previous trading day: closed on 2026-08-10) | Growth Company Framework | This summary is a condensed inheritance of IC reports and public articles, designed to help you understand the core in 3 minutes. AI provides value ranges and research conclusions. For the full version, see Crisis Investment Lab! In short, the core Securitize is a "licensed pipeline company" that brings stocks, funds, and private credit onto blockchain—its business quality is solid, cash is thick enough not to worry about survival, but its current price of 6.92 USD is almost exactly above the conservative reasonable value of 7.0 USD. Combined with about 120 million shares unlocked at the end of December and 150 million shares already registered for resale, it is a combination of "good company, no discounts, and a supply wall ahead." The conclusion is to wait and see, building positions at a disciplined price [Pharaoh Market Watch]
Pharaoh bluntly said Goldman Sachs' $2.25 billion was worth it because it wasn't buying a fund company, but a ticket to the "Bitcoin yield market" track. BlackRock made Bitcoin bought, and Goldman Sachs wanted it to "lay eggs."
Let's first look at the transaction itself.
Goldman Sachs acquired NEOS Investments for up to $2.25 billion, with the deal expected to close in Q1 2027. NEOS manages $30 billion worth of 19 options income ETFs, with its core asset being about $1.1 billion worth of BTCI, and a Bitcoin yield ETF with an annualized distribution rate of about 27% earned from premium payments by selling call options. Goldman Sachs' own Bitcoin covered call ETF has yet to be launched. Now, by directly buying the sector leader, it is essentially bypassing the "follow-up" path and directly engaging BlackRock's BITA head-on.
But don't be blinded by a 27% yield.
BTCI does not directly hold Bitcoin, but instead holds spot ETPs and sells options for rental income. You can earn cash flow when Bitcoin moves sideways or rises moderately, but when it surges on one side, the upside is capped. Over the past year, BTCI's price has dropped about 43%, with its net asset value nearly halved from its peak. A high allocation ratio does not equal high returns; part of the dividend comes from principal returns.
The real highlight of this acquisition is not BTCI itself.
In the past nine months, Goldman Sachs has consecutively acquired Innovator and NEOS, with total ETF assets surpassing $130 billion, making it the world's eighth largest active ETF manager. One focuses on downside protection, the other on yield enhancement, both acquiring the two major strategies of derivatives ETFs. This shows that Goldman Sachs is betting not on Bitcoin's rise or fall, but on Wall Street's structural need for "monthly cash income"—retirement accounts over 55 need cash flow, which is more essential than young people seeking sudden wealth.
For the Bitcoin ecosystem, this is deeper than spot ETF approval. Spot ETFs turn Bitcoin into "tradable," while income ETFs turn it into "dividend-collecting." Two completely different types of capital—the former is speculative capital, the latter is allocation capital. If Goldman Sachs succeeds, more institutions will follow, and the participant structure and volatility characteristics of the crypto market will be rewritten.
Remember, Wall Street is packaging Bitcoin's volatility into wealth management products and selling them. This is much more worth pondering than short-term ups and downs!
Follow Pharaoh, never lose your way to wealth! $BTC $ETH $OKB #高盛收购Neos, crypto ETFs are shifting toward yield competition #高盛收购Neos, crypto ETFs are shifting to earnings competition
I think Goldman Sachs spending $2.25 billion to buy Neos shows that Wall Street's rules in the crypto world have completely changed—people no longer just focus on who holds the most spot assets, but now compete on who can bring other returns
In the past, when people bought crypto funds, they simply bet on a price increase. But now, many traditional large funds complain that Bitcoin and Ethereum are too volatile and don't pay interest. Goldman Sachs bought Neos this time and has a flagship product. This thing doesn't just hoard coins directly; instead, it earns fees by selling options and pays out money to investors every month. Simply put, it's sacrificing part of the surging profits in exchange for unshakable monthly cash flow.
Right now, MicroStrategy sells part of the Bitcoin because it requires paying interest, which actually has a big impact on stock prices and investments. So Goldman Sachs' current approach is beneficial to the community. #Strategy selling another 1,690 BTC causes corporate financial fragmentation #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币 and scale halving
I think this will make crypto funds more stable. In the past, crypto was full of retail investors and speculators, dumping at the slightest disturbance. Now Wall Street has turned Bitcoin and Ethereum into rent-collecting properties, and those stable retirement funds will keep coming in. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices may not double as easily as before, but the risk of crashes will decrease, gradually becoming ballast in asset allocation.
1. Bitcoin: Currently, $BTC is around $63,800 and is in a fluctuating phase. Don't rush to chase highs; if the price drops to around $62,000, you can buy in batches. If it falls below $60,000, it means market sentiment is very poor, so don't touch it for now.
2. Ethereum: $ETH around $1895. If the price rebounds to the $1915–$1940 range, it's best not to chase blindly and consider reducing positions in batches or waiting and waiting. If the price drops to around $1800, it's a good opportunity to add to your position for the long term. But if it falls below $1800, be cautious
3.$OKB You can keep investing regularly and do long-term investmentThe latest implied valuation of Anthropic on Stock Analysis is $826 billion
Meanwhile, Binance and OKX currently have pre-market implied valuations of $1.4 trillion and $1.5 trillion, respectively
Isn't 🤓 this a perfect opportunity to make money?
Although Stock Analysis cites buyer-side data,
But considering the recent releases of Kimi and Grok
Claude is no longer far ahead of other high-end models
Not to mention, the cost is several times higher
Along with Anthropic's recent series of brilliant moves,
Claude's future market share is starting to look a bit worrying
Looking at this implied price, the market may already be reflecting on this issue
$ANTHROPIC 📊 $XRP Contract Liquidation Express (August 13)
According to liquidation data, XRP shows a pattern of rapid short-cycle direction switching and medium- to long-term bulls continuously crushing the market, with a pronounced triple kill pattern between bulls and bears:
· Short Cycle (1H/4H): 1-hour long liquidation $193.44, short liquidation at **$0, bulls completely monopolized but with very small volume; 4-hour short liquidation at $48,300, long at $3,654.83, bears crushed bulls by 13.2 times**, sharply reversing direction, with short squeezes concentrated at the 4-hour level. Short-term long and short double kills are distinct.
· Medium Cycle (12H): Long positions liquidated $1.0598 million, short positions $76,800, bulls crushed short positions by 13.8 times, direction reversed again, and the bullish market saw a massive explosion, with liquidation volume about 22 times higher than 4 hours.
· 24-hour timeframe: long positions liquidated $1.8459 million, short positions $209,400, bulls crushed bears by 8.8 times, cumulative liquidations broke $2.0553 million, long positions accounted for nearly 89.8%, bulls bleeding like rivers, and bullish selling momentum unstoppable.
⚠️ Risk warning: XRP short-term trend switching (1H long selling→ 4H short squeeze→12H/24H long selling), frequent switching between long and short; 24-hour long multiple is narrower than 12-hour (13.8x →8.8x), so be alert to changes in long selling momentum. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; do not chase gains or sell lows, strictly control positions and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 13
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: AI narratives are undergoing performance validation from "burning money" to "making money," and the macro environment is simultaneously providing a window for this validation.
📊 July CPI Landing Steadily: Expectations for a September Rate Hike Fad
US July CPI was 3.4% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month; Core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, all fully in line with expectations. The main drag was the drop in fuel prices, with gasoline prices falling 2.9% month-on-month; The month-on-month increase in food items narrowed to 0.1%, while lettuce and tomato prices, which had previously been affected by supply shocks, plummeted.
After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September plummeted from 48% two days earlier to 36%. Nick Timiraos, known as the "new Fed News Agency," pointed out that the report "has somewhat eased pressure for the Fed to raise rates next month." The S&P 500 index closed up 0.3%, near its all-time high.
🏗️ AI infrastructure earnings relay: cloud revenue accelerates across the board
During the Q2 earnings season, the three major cloud providers delivered strong results. Google Cloud's revenue was $24.8 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase, with its operating profit margin jumping from 20.7% to 35.6%; Microsoft Azure grew 43% year-on-year; Amazon AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37% year-on-year. All three major cloud providers achieved more than double their unfulfilled orders. AI investment is forming a positive cycle of "capital expenditure→ revenue→ profit → further increase."
The rising AI cloud infrastructure star also exploded—Nebius's core AI cloud business sales surged 514% year-on-year, with its stock price soaring 34% in a single day; CoreWeave disclosed $104 billion in orders on hand, with its stock price surging over 19%.
🚀 Elon Musk: AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value
At the all-hands meeting, Musk boldly declared: AI revenue will surpass all other SpaceX businesses as early as September; Within five years, AI will account for 99% of the company's value; SpaceX aims to build 10 gigawatts of AI computing power by the end of next year, corresponding to annual revenue of $300 billion to $500 billion. SpaceX's current computing power is 1.4 gigawatts. Boosted by this, SpaceX's stock price rose over 6%, rebounding more than 35% from previous lows.
💎 Summary
CPI is moderately implemented, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping to 36%, temporarily easing macro pressures; The three major cloud providers have demonstrated that AI investment is paying off with operating profit margins exceeding 35%; Elon Musk, on the other hand, has declared, "AI accounts for 99% of SpaceX's value," pushing the imagination of AI narratives to new heights. As the macro window opens, the industry cycles are established, and the narrative ceiling is redefined—the AI track is moving from "storytelling" to a stage of "delivering the answer sheet." #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled down
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% With CPI implemented, why hasn't Bitcoin rise?
US July CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, and core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year, both up slightly month-on-month.
Inflation is indeed cooling down $BTC
June's CPI was still 3.5%, dropping to 3.4% in July, which basically met market expectations.
But the problem lies precisely here:
Meeting expectations means the market has already started trading early.
Without exceeding expectations, it is difficult to attract new buying interest $ETH
After the CPI release, market concerns about a rate hike in September did indeed ease, with the probability of a rate hike dropping from nearly half to around 40%.
But don't get too happy just yet.
A decrease in the probability of rate hikes does not mean a rate cut is imminent.
Inflation is still above 3%, still clearly far from the Fed's 2% target.
So this CPI is more like:
It hasn't gotten worse, but not good enough to immediately make the Fed pivot.
What truly deserves attention is Bitcoin's reaction.
After the data was released, BTC briefly surged, gaining less than 1%, then fluctuated back around $63,000.
At the same time, US stocks, the Nasdaq, and gold performed noticeably stronger.
What does this indicate?
It's not that the macro positive news has disappeared, but rather that the crypto community's own capital support is too weak.
Previously, when a favoritism came out, BTC might jump by 5% or 10%.
And now?
The data met expectations, and BTC didn't even make a decent breakout.
This is the most vigilant point:
The market's demand for positive news is increasing.
"Meeting expectations" is no longer enough.
You have to give me expectations beyond expectations, stronger rate cut expectations, and real incremental funds; otherwise, relying on just one data sheet won't change the current BTC market structure.
So next, don't just focus on the CPI $OKB
$63,000 is the key short-term lifeline.
Hold on, continue to fluctuate, and wait for a new direction.
If it breaks below the threshold, the space below may open up further.
CPI is not the end, just a stopover.
Next stop: PPI.
The real market trend is often not determined the moment the data is released, but rather whether funds are willing to take in after the data is released.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%