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Buying $SPCX is like buying the stars and seas. If you're aiming for AI computing power, you might as well buy an existing computing power company.
The space data center Musk mentions sounds cool, but at its core, it's still at the PPT stage. Nowadays, data centers on land are short on water and electricity, so there's no time to gaze at the stars. Spending a lot of money building data centers on the ground is like giving up your unique skills and using your weaknesses to challenge others' strengths.
If you really want to leverage AI computing power, what matters most is the hard power to immediately collect rent. Companies like Oracle or Coreweave have data centers running around the clock. They directly lease computing power to AI giants, generating real cash flow every day, and the commercial closed loop runs very smoothly.
Buying rocket company shares and betting on server rentals is never worth it. If you're optimistic about AI computing power, go for professionals with clients, income, and machine rooms. Dreams are dreams, life is life; distinguishing between faith and business is the right path.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Japan's rate hike (black swan event) has a full impact on Bitcoin
1. Underlying principles
The yen is the world's largest currency for carry trades. Global hedge funds have long borrowed ultra-low-interest yen to buy high-yield risk assets like Bitcoin and US stocks to earn interest rate gains.
Japan's continued rate hikes will raise yen borrowing costs and push yen appreciation. Institutions can only concentrate on selling Bitcoin to close positions and repay debts, and withdraw yen, directly tightening liquidity in the crypto market. Therefore, Japan's rate hikes have long been recognized as a liquidity black swan event in the crypto market.
2. Lessons from History
In July 2024, Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates beyond expectations, causing Bitcoin to plunge 25% in a week; Since every round of rate hikes in Japan from 2024 to 2026, Bitcoin has experienced a pullback between 18% and 32%, with an average drop of 27%, showing a strong interlock.
3. Latest market situation as of 2026-08-13
1. The current market is betting on a 74%-78% probability of another rate hike by the Bank of Japan on September 18, with rate hike expectations heating up rapidly;
2. Today, global risk assets are collectively under pressure, with stocks and commodities weakening. Bitcoin has started early, with funds for hedging and leverage reduction.
3. With expectations of a stronger yen, trillion-yuan yen carry trades carry risks of concentrated liquidation. The crypto market is trading continuously 24/7 and highly liquid, making it the first risk asset to be sold off.
4. Three complete conduction pathways
1. Leveraged liquidation: yen appreciation → rising borrowing costs, institutions selling Bitcoin to repay yen loans, and massive selling pressure pushes down prices;
2. Global liquidity flowing back: Japanese bond yields rise, overseas funds are withdrawing from the crypto market and returning to Japanese domestic assets;
3. Risk sentiment contagion: Japan, A-shares, and US stocks collectively weakened, with overall market risk appetite declining, and investors actively reducing positions in high-risk crypto assets.
5. Key Subsequent Risks
- Moderate rate hikes, slow yen strengthening: Carry trades are being closed in an orderly manner, and Bitcoin will only experience short-term fluctuations and corrections;
- Aggressive rate hikes beyond expectations, rapid and sharp yen appreciation: massive leveraged concentrated liquidations will lead to a deep drop in Bitcoin;
Subsequent market trends will focus on the wording of the Bank of Japan's September 18 policy meeting, the scale of rate hikes, and the movement of the yen exchange rate.The July CPI data released this morning barely disturbed the market: core inflation fell 0.1 percentage points to 2.5%, and overall inflation remained flat. Policy rates have been unchanged since December last year, with real rates still in tightening territory, and as inflation slowly declines, this gap is widening. More concerning than the data itself is the market's reaction—within hours of the data release, Bitcoin barely rebounded, and US stocks even edged down. Stable inflation and unchanged policy should have created a mild backdrop, and a healthy market should be interpreted as a positive signal. If prices fail to strengthen in the coming days, we will see this as confirmation of continued demand absence. #July CPI Delivered Steadily, September Rate Hike Expectations Cool #新手必看: Everything You Need Here $BTC I used to be obsessed with forecasting and verifying market trends. Now, I don't predict, just follow and find trading smoother than before. Prediction adds too much subjective emotion, and not predicting becomes integrated with market awarenessStill fantasizing about SLX surging a hundredfold? Wake up, the market is already writing the answer on its face! 🤡📉
Watching a group of people cheering for SLX (Solstice) in the community every day really makes me want to pour cold water on it.
Watching the price firmly stuck at $0.1039, and just a few days ago hitting a historic low of $0.1005, some people are still saying "buying more and more as it falls, with a full-fledged view"?
Let's use the most down-to-earth logic to break through this barrier:
1. Institutional-level DeFi narrative? Are retail investors buying in?
Boasting about bringing "institutional-grade yield products on-chain" sounds impressive.
But looking at the market: the volume-to-market cap ratio is only 0.0507! This shows that apart from bots and a few trapped retail investors, no new capital is willing to take over. A narrative without buying is just empty promises!
2. The harsh truth behind "Heat No.35."
Its popularity peaked at No.35, but its market value dropped to $25.25 million (No.209).
This isn't called a "potential stock"—it's the whole internet watching the crash scene! Everyone is watching to see when you'll break through $0.10, waiting to buy the dip or watch the show, but no one wants to carry the sedan chair at $0.1039.
3. Sword of Damocles with a 24% circulation rate
Currently, the liquidity rate is only 24.28%, and the FDV (fully diluted market capitalization) reaches $104 million.
75% of the chips still lie in the back, waiting to be unlocked. Without a strong push and shakeout, why do you think the big players will be merciful and directly take you away? $SLX #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled 📊 $BNB /USDT Short Update
$BNB is trading at $611.7 (+0.21%), holding strong above key moving averages after recently tapping a local high of $620.6.
* Support: $608.5 (24h Low) | $608.0 (MA5)
* Resistance: $615.6 (24h High) | $620.6
🔮 Outlook:
* Bullish: Break above $615.6 ➡️ Retest $620.6 – $625.0.
* Bearish: Drop below $608.0 ➡️ Retest $601.3 (MA10).
DYOR. Not financial advice.
#CPIEasesHikeBets #OKXTraderVoices PPI data preview
Last night, the CPI released a neutral data. In my livestream, I talked about core goods and core services, both driving CPI rebounds, reflecting two macro market contradictions—worsening employment and war—which is faster, inflation?
First, let's explain what the PPI is. PPI is the Producer Price Index.
CPI shows how much consumers end up paying for what they buy,
PPI shows whether a company's costs and prices have risen first when producing and selling goods and services.
Many costs are not immediately passed on to consumers.
Just because crude oil prices have risen doesn't mean all supermarket goods have gone up in price today.
Storage price hikes don't mean phones and computers will immediately go up.
Therefore, after the war pushes up energy and logistics costs, the PPI often exposes inflationary pressures on the business side earlier than the CPI.
Tonight's PPI data is positive, but it's hard to judge. Previously, when PPI turned negative, it might be positive, but this month's data shows non-farm payrolls are very poor + CPI is very low. If PPI suddenly drops too low, the market will start asking why inflation is falling so quickly.
If the answer is that demand is rapidly deteriorating, then the trading logic will gradually shift from [interest rate cut benefits] to [recession trading].
The market wants a moderate drop in inflation, a moderate cooling of employment, and a sudden economic slowdown; it wants a soft landing.
So when you analyze it, it feels like the US is doomed,
Below expectations, bearish, market trading is in recession.
Higher than expected, negative news, weakening economy, rising prices, and stagnant market transactions.
Meeting expectations or falling just a little short is best. #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled down One Trading Rule I Follow 📌
Don’t chase a green candle just because everyone is talking about it.
Wait for confirmation, check volume, define your entry and know where you’ll exit if the setup fails.
Good trading is not about being right every time. It’s about managing risk.
Agree or disagree? 👇 #CryptoTrading #Trading #Bitcoin The mainstream trend is somewhat weak—what should you do next? You can pause and refer to my analysis
Currently, the mainstream trend is showing signs of fatigue, and the market is severely lacking liquidity. Let's look at $ETH, whose price has been narrowly oscillating between the 1800 support level and the 2000 resistance level. In this volatile market, it is relatively difficult to grasp the mainstream coin market
Analyzing the news first, the recent event was that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced today that the Bank of Japan is preparing to raise interest rates. Although Japan's rate hikes are not set by the direction alone, they act more like risk amplifiers. They have increased global liquidity and reduced already limited liquidity.
Yesterday, BlackRock urgently shifted its ETH and BTC holdings, leading the market to interpret it as a sell-off move. Coupled with large-scale capital outflows, negative news made the rally more difficult.
Looking at the trend, the next few days may lean more defensively, making blind chasing long positions not suitable.
I believe that as long as key support levels are not broken and funds do not continue to withdraw, it will not cause too much panic.
In the short term, I may be bearish and might buy on dips near 1800, but I don't believe a sharp drop will definitely begin. After high levels of oscillation and buying up, I look for opportunities to adjust and build momentum before continuing to challenge the 2000 mark.
So I plan to keep my bullets ready, and when the time comes, I'll look for good signals and key entry opportunities to go long. #JulyCPI settles steadily, and expectations for a rate hike in September cool down A major player I monitor on the Hyperliquid chain has moved again.
Account $26M, 59 positions. History: 1,746 transactions, win rate 60%, last 10 trades 70%.
His current position is dominated by the bears. The largest short position is $23.3M, 15x, with an unrealized loss of $106K. The second largest short position is $13.3M, 20x, with an unrealized loss of $186K. The long position is only $6.3M.
This time, he did two things:
$BTC added $65K to a long position, 20x entry, entry $63,740, floating profit of $8.4K.
$ETH short position minus $70K, 15x entry, entry $1,886, unrealized loss $106K.
Interestingly, his performance on these two coins is worlds apart.
$BTC 100% win rate, 8 wins in a row earn $105K.
$ETH win rate 0%, 208 transactions lost all 208 trades, losing $3.9K.
Those with a 60% win rate increase their positions on the most profitable coins and hold out on the ones that lose the most.
Compared to $23.3M short positions at $70K, the proportion is 0.3%. Minor adjustment, not a reversal. Overall, bearish.
I stared.
#Hyperliquid #链上巨鲸 #BTC #ETH$HOME I've been watching this coin for a long time. After shorting once and it couldn't fall below 0.08, I ended up selling at a loss in profit. Looking again at the daily chart, it's very likely to rise again. Brothers, be cautious with shorting; it's a bit tough. If you want to short, try placing an order at 0.135! #7月CPI平稳落地, September rate hike expectations cool #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession, #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% @该用户已被屏蔽 Recently, many people have become increasingly confused as they play:
The market is neither moving up nor down; when altcoins rise, they sell down; when long, they get swept; when shorting, they get pulled—it seems every move is wrong.
Today, instead of short-term candlesticks, I'll directly explain the current macro situation + the real logic of the crypto world. Once you understand this article, you'll know how to operate, how to control positions, and how to avoid pitfalls in the coming month.
1. Current Global Situation: Overall, "Liquidity Tightening, Sentiment Extremely Weak"
The external environment is now very clear:
1. Overall, there was no large incremental capital entering the market
Institutional ETFs sometimes flow in and sometimes redeem, with no signal of sustained position increases.
Simply put: without new money pushing the market higher, the market can only move sideways and waste time.
2. Geopolitical news repeatedly disturbs
During periods of instability, all risk assets are suppressed.
As soon as there's any movement outside, the market surface is a pin insertion, double kill, and quick shakeout.
3. Market sentiment enters the 'extreme fear zone'
Currently, the market fear index remains low, and retail investor confidence is very weak.
The biggest characteristic at the end of a bear market: not loving big surges, but repeatedly grinding until everyone's mindset collapses.
This is also why recently:
Seeing an opportunity, but immediately losing money;
It looks like a breakthrough, but if you chase it in, it's just a fake breakthrough;
If you take on a single task, you're stuck in a trap; if not, you're missing out.
2. Current real market structure in the crypto world: main market consolidation, local monster stocks, most waiting to die
The current market situation is extremely polarized, showing severe divergence, no longer the previous broad-based bull market.
1. BTC: Grinding within a range, no directional guidance
Bitcoin has been stuck in the 63,200–64,400 range for a long time
• If support is not broken, there is no chance for a major drop
• No stable resistance, no major rally
BTC now: only responsible for stabilizing the market, not for making money.
All one-sided heavy positions and gamblings on price swings are easily bought back.
2. ETH: Weaker than Bitcoin, passively follows
Ethereum is a typical example:
Rebounds are weak, declines are tough, and volatility is the main focus.
There is no independent market; it basically depends on Bing's mood.
The mainstream's biggest role now is to stabilize the market's bottom line, with no profit-making effect.
3. The only profitable point in the market: the theme is independent in the market
The only ones that can be fought recently:
OKB, AI pre-IPO themes, and some hot knockoffs
Features:
• Aggressively surge prices whenever there is news
• The price dropped immediately after the news passed
• Extremely poor persistence, only suitable for fast in-and-out
This is the biggest pitfall right now:
Some cryptocurrencies are surging rapidly, while most accounts continue to lose money.
3. Why have retail investors been steadily losing recently? Accurately hitting the current market weakness
I have summarized the reasons behind 90% of recent losses, and it is very real:
1. The market is volatile, yet people still like to heavily invest in one-sided bets
In a volatile market, heavy positions are the worst; sweeping up and down to stop losses is the norm.
2. Seeing local hotspots surge, unable to resist chasing highers
Once AI-themed or trending knockoffs surge, retail investors are the easiest to jump in and end up buying them all.
3. Loves to take orders, like rolling positions, and refuses to accept the market
Right now, Zhuang loves to test his mindset,
4. Always want to make money every day, do not accept empty positions
This is definitely not the stage where markets are trending every day,
If you don't understand and insist on doing it, it's just a steady cash giveaway.
4. The most stable trading strategy for the next half month (practical experience)
1. If the big band hasn't broken out or held steady, all are small positions trying and making mistakes
Before the range breaks, refuse heavy positions and go all-in.
2. For hot topics, only buy on dips, never chase highs
All the surging coins now are experiencing pulse market trends,
Chasing high means buying in, buying low means arbitrage.
3. Firmly avoid "carrying orders, rolling over warehouses, and adding inventory to cost amortization"
The current weak market is getting more and more trapped as you diversify.
If you're wrong, just cut your losses—it's better than enduring it ten times.
4. Most of the time, just watch and take certain opportunities
When the market is weak:
Short positions = making money, doing less = losing less.
5. The final sincere words
This is not a bear market crash, nor a bull market surge right now,
This is the most tormenting period of volatility and bottoming.
At this stage, it's not about who earns more,
It's about who lives long, whose capital is steady, and whose mindset remains unbroken.
True big market trends are forged through grinding, not rushing.
Be patient and hold back; when the opportunity comes, we naturally eat heartily.
⚠️ Personal review records do not constitute investment advice🔥 Tonight at 20:30, the market faces another big test!
The US July PPI is about to be released.
Market expectations:
🇺🇸 PPI MoM: +0.2%
🇺🇸 PPI YoY: 4.9%
🇺🇸 Core PPI MoM: +0.3%
🇺🇸 Initial jobless claims: 202,000
My judgment:
👉 PPI is very unlikely to significantly exceed expectations.
Yesterday's CPI already proved that US inflation is not spiraling out of control for now.
If tonight's PPI continues to cool down:
📉 Inflation pressure decreases
📉 Fed rate hike expectations decline
📈 Rate cut expectations rise
📉 US Treasury yields come under pressure
📈 Nasdaq/semiconductors/BTC/ETH continue to benefit
Especially if:
PPI ≤ 4.9%
Core PPI ≤ 0.3%
Initial claims ≥ 202,000
Then the market will likely further trade the "inflation cooling + weakening employment" combination.
🔥 My scenario:
20:30 data release
→ First sharp spike
→ Dollar/US Treasury yields react first
→ Risk assets choose direction
→ If PPI is below expectations, tech stocks and crypto markets have a chance to continue rising
But if PPI suddenly ≥ 5.2%,
then it’s a completely different scenario.
⚠️ Don’t just watch PPI tonight.
What really matters is:
"PPI + Initial jobless claims + US Treasury yields"
The resonance of these three is the real key to determining tonight’s market direction.
Be ready at 20:30 tonight.
#Fed #PPI #BTC #ETH #Nasdaq #USStocks #Crypto Tonight's dinner is entirely paid for by $APR. Thanks to the project team 🤪
I still remember that APR short position I got stuck before. I was holding back my anger and warned myself: once small-cap altcoins group their funds, never stubbornly hold out against the trend
This time, I directly adjusted my approach and took advantage of the momentum by making two APR long positions—a 20x individual position—both were successfully pocketed. The first opened at 0.45, caught a rally, and the return soared to over 150%; Later, I entered the market again at 0.48 and opened a position, also taking profits safely. Together, I made steady profits
After doing contracts for a long time, I understood a simple truth: the market won't accommodate your original viewpoint. Previously, I was stuck on a bearish stance, not because the market was at fault, but because I underestimated the strength of small-cap coins pushing the market. Once you see funds continuously pushing upward, it's much wiser to set aside your biases and shift direction with the trend, rather than stubbornly holding on for a reversal
But you must also be clear-headed: these knockoffs have strong short-term explosive potential, but their risks are equally high. With 20x leverage, profits come quickly when things are profitable, but once the market reverses and plunges, losses can be instantly amplified. Only trade clear short-term pulses, take profits when you earn, and never greedily take long-term trades
The market never lacks opportunities; the hardest part is letting go of obsession, admitting mistakes, and then taking advantage of the situation
This is only a personal live trading review and does not constitute investment advice$SPCX 火箭落地了，我却选择不去接这一棒。 破位后的反抽，真的还能再飞一次吗？ 说实话，昨晚盯盘的时候心里是有点痒的，毕竟位置确实诱人。但我反复问了自己一个问题：现在是追涨，还是博弈？ 我的答案是，这更像一场博弈，而且赔率已经不太划算了。 让我把逻辑拆开给你看—— - 破位又收回，说明多空在这附近打得很凶，但方向并没有真正走出来 - 超过1.75亿股等着解禁，这个悬在头上的量，不是一根阳线就能消化掉的 - 距离关键节点只剩4个交易日，时间上根本不够完成一轮像样的修复 很多人只看到"诶，反弹了"，却没去想反弹的成色到底足不足。真正的启动，应该是放量、干脆、不带犹豫的；而反复试探、磨磨蹭蹭的，更多是资金在找接盘的人。 我选择先退出来，让子弹飞一会儿。 等这一轮回踩走完，再等解禁压力释放掉第二轮，那时候的形态才值得认真对待。少赚一点没关系，睡得踏实更重要。 市场从来不缺机会，缺的是等得起的那颗心。 祝大家都能避开坑、吃到肉，稳稳地走完这一程 🌙 （本文仅代表个人观察，不构成操作参考哦） $SPCX #加密市场 #交易心态Market survival rules under CPI data releases: Why the current market needs more patience. Tonight's CPI data shows a generally neutral to dovish tone, at least not triggering potential downside risks. In the current highly sensitive market atmosphere, the lack of substantial bearish stimulus is seen as a mild positive signal. However, this does not mean investors can be blindly optimistic or even lose their rationality by chasing at high prices. Analyzing the current market structure, there are three key logics worth deep attention: First, the outlook for a rate hike in September remains like a hanging sword, causing large institutions and large funds to generally choose to wait and see. Mainstream institutions have extremely keen instincts, and with the current market buying momentum extremely scarce, the market structure appears quite fragile. Once there is a slightly larger sell-off, the candlestick trend may experience a sharp drop in an instant. Second, the market is facing a dual dilemma: new capital is reluctant to enter and existing funds continue to flow out. Without external incremental capital inflow, any form of price rebound is essentially a game of competition among existing funds, which inevitably diminishes the continuity and durability of the rally. Third, in such a fiercely tug-of-war and volatile market, the difficulty of trading is extremely high. Choosing to short is prone to unexpected violent rebounds and squeezes, while going long risks the risk of institutional sell-offs at any time. In response, the most successful strategy is simply to "wait quietly at key points." Place orders at key support or resistance levels in advance; execute trades when the price is reached, and remain on the sidelines if the target is not reached. Never blindly chase rises or sell losses. For now,Actually, this month's data has little impact on the crypto world; instead, the biggest impact is on gold
Whether it's the surprise in nonfarm payroll data or the CPI data meeting expectations,
In fact, all of this is cooling down and reducing the necessity for the Fed to continue raising rates
Lowering expectations for rate hikes means US dollar yields will fall, making gold likely to benefit in the short term
As always, the capital market is always speculating on expectations
Before the CPI release, the market had already bet on cooling inflation
After the data is realized, typical buying expectations tend to appear→ with no obvious expectation gap. → data is realized, prices surge→ profit-taking orders are realized
The current pullback does not necessarily mean a trend reversal; it is more like waiting for tonight's PPI to provide a second confirmation
Now, let's talk about why expectations for rate hikes have diminished and why there's little volatility in the crypto world
Whether it's BTC or ETH, the main thing is still the logic of risk assets
What is needed is not just a halt to rate hikes, but also a clearer expansion of liquidity and risk appetite
Therefore, in the current macro environment, gold offers both interest rate trading and safe-haven trading
Currently, gold's 4-hour strong support is near 4300-4320. Watch tonight's PPI data
If it falls short of expectations, gold will still climb back above 4400 to challenge previous highs
If a clearly better-than-expected rebound in US dollar and Treasury yields appears, it may test the 4320 support level
If it basically meets expectations, then the volatility is average
After all, it's not big data; it still depends on whether there is a clear gap in expectations. #7月CPI平稳落地, the cooling of rate hike expectations in September $XAU 美国7月CPI终于落地： 整体CPI同比 3.4%、环比 +0.1%；核心CPI同比 2.5%、环比 +0.2%，全部符合市场预期。 看起来是利好。 但真正重要的不是“CPI下降了0.1个百分点”，而是： 它改变了多少市场预期？ 数据公布后，9月加息概率从此前约54%快速降至40%左右，最新市场定价进一步偏向美联储维持利率不变。也就是说，这份CPI真正完成的是： 降低进一步收紧的风险，而不是直接打开降息周期。 这也是为什么BTC没有因为CPI符合预期就直接进入主升。 宏观环境变好了，不等于资金马上回来 这是这一轮最容易被误解的地方。 过去很多人把市场理解成： CPI下降 → 美债跌 → 美元跌 → BTC涨 → 山寨季。 实际上，中间还缺了最关键的一环： 新增资金。 8月3日至7日，美国现货BTC ETF曾连续五个交易日净流入，累计约 8.65亿美元。 但随后资金迅速降温： 8月10日净流出约 1.45亿美元；
8月11日仅净流入约 780万美元；
CPI公布当天8月12日再次净流出约 6110万美元。 这组数据非常重要。 它告诉我们： CPI消除了部分宏观压力，却没有立刻换来机构持续The Fear and Greed Index has been stuck near 26 for a long time, which should have been a warning signal. Historically, such low readings are often accompanied by wave of reductions, soaring volatility, and a downward shift in price weight. But this time, neither BTC nor ETH fell—in the past 30 days, the former rose 2%, and the latter nearly 7%. Price and sentiment have decoupled.
This decoupling is more worth pondering than sentiment itself. It suggests the market may have passed through the simple "panic-sell" transmission chain and entered a more subtle phase: sentiment is cold, but selling has dried up.
BTC trading sideways at low levels is itself a statement. The fact that long-term funds haven't been scared off by the fear index shows that institutions are not focusing on sentiment readings, but on deeper underlying factors—US dollar liquidity, ETF subscription and redemption trends, and interest rate expectations. As long as these three lines don't deteriorate simultaneously, BTC's current stable state in the range is reasonable. It may not immediately strengthen, but further sharp declines require new catalysts, which at present are not obvious.
ETH's performance provides another dimension of observation. When it rises more than BTC, it often signals that the market is tentatively restarting its risk appetite. ETH is more sensitive to capital sentiment; if the index rises from 26 to above 35, ETH is likely to show stronger aggressiveness. Conversely, if the index continues to fall below 20, BTC's resilience will become more pronounced, and funds will return to a conservative stance.
So, the real variable right now isn't how deep the panic remains, but whether it can still turn into actual selling pressure. Prices have refused to follow the index to new lows, indicating that the cost-effectiveness of bear buying is declining. But this is only the beginning of a recovery; one condition remains before a full bullish turn: real relaxation of macro liquidity. Until then, the market will most likely maintain a pace of "repairing positions and not chasing risk."
The next two lines determine the trend: when sentiment warms, whether ETH will continue to lead the rally; If sentiment worsens again, can BTC hold its current focus? The former determines the upper limit of elasticity, while the latter determines whether the recovery logic holds.
$BTC
$ETH
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another $BTC $ETH The US July CPI data finally arrived, and overall it was just above expectations. Year-on-year growth was 3.4%, core CPI was 2.5%, inflation slightly declined, and market speculation about a rate hike in September cooled down.
After the data came out, market polarization became obvious: gold weakened first and then rebounded, while BTC remained range-bound. Short-term US Treasury yields declined somewhat, but long-term inflation risks have not been completely eliminated.
Although CPI data is positive for the crypto market, it's hard for the market to break out of a one-sided trend at this stage, and it's mostly a back-and-forth pull driven by news. Hopefully, the market can get off to a good start in the second half of the year.
Currently, the market is still mostly oscillating within the range, and I have repeatedly pulled and opened a short position within the box. I plan to hold on this round and keep shorting, forever tears in my eyes.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, and corporate treasuries diverged Anthropic is accelerating its IPO, and AI valuations are finally moving from private equity boardrooms into public market interrogation rooms.
The private market can talk about vision, security, Claude Code, enterprise clients, and it can also push valuations up round after round. The secondary market isn't so gentle; it asks every day: How is the quality of revenue? Can inference costs be reduced? Is customer renewal stable? Who pays the data center bills? How long can the model advantage last?
This step is crucial for the entire AI industry.
If Anthropic's high-valuation IPO can still be caught, OpenAI, xAI, CoreWeave, and various AI infrastructure companies will continue to enjoy the potential for imagination. But if the market experiences significant volatility after listing, the market will begin to doubt: has the valuation of AI private equity already priced in the next ten years?
I believe Anthropic's IPO is not just about raising funds for a company; it will become a public benchmark for AI valuation.
In the past, people competed over who had bigger stories, and after going public, they had to see who had a stronger account.
#Anthropic加快IPO进程, AI valuation enters a validation phase Bitcoin: Late Bear Market Compression, Demand Still Ignited Glassnode's Latest Assessment: Bitcoin has entered the Late Bear Market Compression phase, with the underlying conditions at the bottom being gathered, but real demand signals have yet to appear.
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What is the market doing?
Prices are sandwiched between two on-chain cost lines: the median realized price below is ≈ $63,000, and the short-term holder cost base above is ≈ $68,700. Spot trading volume has shrunk to its lowest level since 2019, with macro benefits and US stock highs failing to drive the market—a classic case of "selling pressure retreating and no buyers."
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Bearish side: exhausted
• Profit supply is approaching historical bear bottom levels, and the amount of leverage to sell is shrinking
• Seller exhaustion indicator touched cyclical lows, and aSOPR was rejected near the break-even line nine times
• Leveraged positions that should be cut and chips that should be sold are being cleaned out, and the momentum for selling down continues to weaken
• However, long-term holders are still selling at a loss (single-day loss peaking at $280 million), and the last batch of "veteran players cutting losses" is not yet over
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Bulls on the side: No one is coming
• Spot ETFs have extremely low net inflows, or even continuous outflows (average daily trading volume has shrunk by about 80% from the peak)
• Coins continue to be moved to exchanges, and the order book buying volume becomes thinner
• Derivatives are heavily leveraged long positions, nominally "bullish," with no real money entering the market, all paper positions
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Two-way switch
• Held above 68,700 + volume increase + ETF inflows back→ demand returned, breaking above the compression zone took effect
• Falling below 58,500 → Thin buying pressure and long squeeze can accelerate the downward trend
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In short: it's not that the market has 'reversed' right now, but rather a silent mode at the tail end of a bear market—the chain is grinding the bottom, sentiment is cooling, but the three matches Glassnode wants—long-term holders stopping losses, stable institutional flow, and price recovery at the true average—haven't all been lit up yet. Patience is more valuable than predictions—wait for demand to speak for itself.On-chain data here carries a 'bottom' vibe.
· The 62,000 to 65,000 BTC range weighs down the cost of about 1.79 million BTC, and once the price crosses, it's like a mountain
· BTC's 90-day correlation with gold rose to around +0.7, and the "digital gold" narrative has been resurfaced
Everyone says "on-chain data shows bottom characteristics," but I insist: on-chain data is a lagging indicator, not a predictive indicator. It's true that long-term holders have deepening unrealized losses, but "historically overlapping with bottoms" doesn't mean "now is the bottom." From what I see on-chain data, it only does one thing: find smart money to buy something, not look at the "overall trend."
Last month, I made a foolish mistake: I saved a screenshot of my mnemonic phrase to a cloud drive. On the day the Coldcard incident happened, I didn't sleep all night, and early the next morning I transferred all my assets to a new wallet. Not being stolen is luck, not skill. When it comes to safety, you can't take chances even once.
Guys, before 8:30 tonight, do one thing: check the stop-loss of all your holdings. Set the stop-loss for those you haven't set up; tighten the limit below 3% for those you have.
#链上数据 #OnChain #BTC 📌 Why is Japan's rate hike called a "black swan"?
Since ending negative interest rates in March 2024, the Bank of Japan has raised rates four times, with the policy rate rising to 1% (the highest since 1995). The market currently bets on another rate hike on September 18 with a probability as high as 74%-78%. It is called a "black swan" because the yen is the world's core financing currency. Large arbitrage trades (using low-yield yen to buy high-yield assets) trigger mass liquidations due to rate hikes, causing leveraged funds to withdraw from global risk assets, creating cross-market shocks. When Japan raised rates more than expected in July 2024, the Nikkei 225 plunged 12.4% in a single day and Bitcoin fell 25% in a week, serving as cautionary examples.
⚠️ The path of interest rate hikes on EWJ (Japan ETF).
1. Carry trade closing positions: Yen appreciation → leveraged funds selling Japanese stocks to fill the yen gap, causing short-term pressure, with core heavyweight stocks bearing the brunt
2. Central Bank ETF Reduction: Starting January 2026, the Bank of Japan will implement a regular ETF reduction plan, directly reducing market buying and amplifying volatility
3. Sector Divergence: Bank stocks benefit from widening spreads, tech/growth stocks face valuation pressure, and the structure of EWJ holdings determines the direction of net impact
4. Exchange Rate Effect: EWJ is an unhedged ETF, and yen appreciation directly drags down dollar-denominated returns. Even if Japanese stocks remain flat, dollar investor returns will decrease
✅ EWJ's current performance and capital movements
- Since the beginning of 2026, EWJ has risen over 13%, attracting over $4 billion in capital inflows during the year
- However, in March, oil prices surged due to the Middle East conflict, causing EWJ to plunge 9% in a single month
- On August 13, influenced by rising expectations of a rate hike in Japan, global risk assets came under pressure, and Japanese stock market gains narrowed significantly in the afternoon
In summary: Japan's rate hikes will have an impact on EWJ with short-term volatility and medium-term structural divergence. If the yen appreciates moderately and carry trades are liquidated in an orderly manner, the impact is controllable; If the yen appreciates sharply and viciously, EWJ may face significant pullback pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the specific wording and forward-looking guidance at the Bank of Japan's September 18 policy meeting. Why is Japan's interest rate hike called "black swan"? Since the Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates in March 2024, it has raised interest rates four times, and the policy interest rate has risen to 1% (the highest since 1995). The market is currently betting that the probability of raising interest rates again on September 18 is as high as 74%-78%. The reason why it is called "black swan" lies in the fact that the yen is the global core financing currency. Once the large-scale carry trade (buying high-yield assets by borrowing low-interest yen) is closed due to interest rate increase, it will lead to the withdrawal of leveraged funds from global risk assets and form a cross-market impact. When Japan raised interest rates more than expected in July 2024, the Nikkei 225 plunged 12.4% in a single day and Bitcoin fell 25% in a week, which is a lesson from the past. The impact path of interest rate hike on EWJ (Japan ETF) 1. Carry trade liquidation: yen appreciation → leveraged funds selling Japanese stocks to cover the yen gap, short-term pressure, core heavyweights bear the brunt 2. Central bank ETF reduction: The Bank of Japan implemented a normalized ETF reduction plan from January 2026, hike。Sister Mutou will share how I came up with this grid strategy. Let me clarify the logic for you. SPCX grid long position. Entered at 134 on August 10th, currently with a floating profit of 40%. This wave of timing is quite good
When I entered the market on August 10, the price was right around 134. After a round of pullbacks, the market stabilized above 130, with the low continuously rising. The overall upward structure was confirmed. The grid was stuck at this level, indicating a trend confirmation and buying on the right side. This is not a bottom-fishing bet on a rebound
From 134 to around 146 now, the unrealized gain in three days is 40 points. That's a decent return efficiency. Looking back, the core logic of entering the market was a combination of short squeezes, the Ghana Index weight adjustment expectation, and the gap period. These three lines are still fermenting, with short positions pushed from 34% to 11%. S3 Partners said the shorts had their bullets out, and both rising and covering were pushing forward
But there are still variables ahead. On August 20, 319 million shares were unlocked. In September, there were still over 700 million shares. The circulating market is continuously expanding, which suppresses prices. You can keep holding the grid bottom position to let profits run, but don't add positions at this level. 149 to 152 is the first resistance. If it can't break through, reduce when needed. Add new positions when it pushes back to 132 to 135 before adding new positions
The entry position is well found, with a solid profit margin, but the road ahead is still long. If you can hold on, you must know how to buy $BTC $ETH $SPCX
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool down#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession, #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Additionally, looking at data from high-net-worth and small-scale investors, there has been a reversal in the past month, which is probably the most promising data we've seen in the short term.
Starting July 30, when $BTC reached $63,000, it was clear that many small-scale investors holding less than 10 Bitcoins were exiting, with most of these tokens going into the hands of high-net-worth investors holding more than 10 Bitcoins.
Some may question whether the BTC was entered by an exchange address, which is why it shows as high-net-worth BTC. However, in reality, the amount of BTC transferred to exchanges after July 30 is not high. Compared to the reduction by small-scale investors versus the increase by high-net-worth investors, the gap is significant.
Therefore, the reduction by these small-scale investors is very likely to be pocketed by high-net-worth investors. More and more signs are starting to taste like the latter half of a bear market.
The proportion of short-term BTC holders has been steadily declining, a phenomenon that has appeared in the late stages of previous bear markets.
Short-term traders are decreasing, new funds are inactive, and market attention is declining; Meanwhile, chips are gradually accumulating in the hands of long-term holders.
The hardest phase of a bear market is often not a daily plunge.
Instead, it fell to the end, with fewer and fewer people even discussing it.
When will the short-term holders' share rebound from its lows next?
This means new participants and new demands are entering the market again. #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool down #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession. #黄金维持高位, institutions remain bullish at year-end 🔥 THE “TOKENS DON’T CAPTURE VALUE” THESIS IS GETTING HARDER TO IGNORE — AND HARDER TO DEFEND
For years, one of the biggest criticisms of crypto tokens has been simple:
The network generates revenue, but the token holders don’t necessarily capture it.
That assumption is increasingly being challenged by new token-economic models.
Look at what’s happening across several major ecosystems:
⚡ Hyperliquid
A large share of protocol fees is being directed toward token buybacks, creating a more direct connection between network activity and $HYPE demand.
🚀 Pump
Token burns and revenue-linked supply reductions are being used to create a deflationary mechanism around $PUMP.
🦄 Uniswap
The introduction of fee-related mechanisms changes the conversation around whether protocol activity can eventually translate into value for $UNI.
👻 Aave
Automated buyback mechanisms are creating another potential link between protocol revenue and token demand.
🔵 Aptos
Fee growth, supply mechanics and token burns are changing the economics of $APT as network activity expands.
🟣 Solana
Proposals to significantly increase the portion of fees burned could further strengthen the connection between network usage and $SOL’s supply dynamics.
The bigger story isn’t any single token.
It’s the evolution of value accrual.
The next phase of crypto may increasingly be about answering one question:
«If a blockchain generates billions in economic activity, who actually captures that value?»
Revenue alone isn’t enough.
Usage matters.
Fees matter.
Buybacks matter.
Burns matter.
Supply dynamics matter.
And if more protocols successfully connect real network activity → token demand or supply reduction, the market may need to rethink how it values crypto assets.
The narrative is shifting from:
“What does this token represent?”
to “What economic value does this token actually capture?” 👀
#CPIEasesHikeBets #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI #KoreaChipsLeadRebound 最会压供应商价的 Apple，要被内存厂反撸了
今年的 iPhone 18 Pro，会同时刷新两个纪录：
史上最贵的 iPhone，以及内存成本占比最高的 iPhone
18 顶配 iPhone 目测会到 2 万
这次最烧钱的不是屏幕、相机，甚至不是 2nm 芯片
而是平时没人关心的 DRAM 和 NAND
12GB + 1TB 的 iPhone 18 Pro Max
整机物料成本可能比上一代多出近 300 美元
甚至可能吃掉整机 4 成的物料成本
更魔幻的一幕发生在台积电
价值约 10 亿美元的 Apple 处理器晶圆已经做出来
芯片有了，订单有了，封装线也有，偏偏内存没到，整颗 A20 Pro 就生产不出来
大概率是低容量版本少涨一点，1TB、2TB 版本直接拉开
AI 还没完全装进你的手机，AI 的账单可能先到了Goldman Sachs’ $2.25B NEOS acquisition is about more than buying an ETF manager—it’s a direct move into Bitcoin yield products.
NEOS manages around $30B, including BTCI, which generates income by selling call options. But don’t be fooled by its ~27% distribution rate: high yield doesn’t guarantee high returns, and upside can be limited during strong BTC rallies.
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI The cooling of CPI is only the first hurdle: what BTC truly lacks is incremental capital
July CPI did not create a black swan: overall year-on-year growth was 3.4%, core year-on-year was 2.5%, both in line with expectations. Inflation continues to ease, with pressure for rate hikes in September easing, US Treasury yields falling, the dollar weakening, and risk assets gaining a breathing room.
But don't equate "weakening macro negatives" directly with "the start of a new bull market."
More notably, on the capital side: on August 12, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $61.1 million, while the ETH ETF saw only a net inflow of about $7.4 million.
This indicates that CPI addresses valuation suppression but does not automatically create new buyers.
Three things still determine the future market trend:
Whether US Treasury yields can continue to fall, ETFs can resume continuous net inflows, and BTC can break through key pressure levels with increased volume after macroeconomic warming.
If prices remain stagnant in a favorable environment, it is even more worthwhile to be wary of selling pressure from existing stocks above.
CPI is responsible for opening the door; whether capital is willing to flow in determines how far the rally can go. $BTC #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled If the CPI fails, will tonight's PPI bring about a rate cut?
After the CPI came out yesterday, I feel the market has given a very clear answer: the most important macro contradictions now are worsening employment and inflation war—who is moving faster?
July CPI rose only 0.1% month-on-month, falling from 3.5% year-on-year to 3.4%; Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, overall in line with expectations.
At least from the consumer side, the energy shock caused by the war has not yet formed a full-scale second-wave inflation.
But on the other hand, employment has already begun to clearly weaken.
Nonfarm payrolls in July showed negative growth, and previous months were further revised downward.
So the Fed now faces an awkward combination: jobs require more loose monetary policy, but inflation is far from low enough to be relaxed.
PPI is the next piece of the puzzle.
1. Why tonight's PPI is more important than usual
PPI is the Producer Price Index.
Simply put, CPI shows how expensive consumers end up buying, while PPI shows whether costs and prices rise first when a company produces or sells goods and services.
Many costs are not immediately passed on to consumers.
Just because crude oil prices have risen doesn't mean all supermarket goods have gone up in price today.
There is a time lag in transportation, chemicals, packaging, manufacturing, wholesale, and then terminal retail.
Therefore, after the war pushes up energy and logistics costs, the PPI often exposes inflationary pressures on the business side earlier than the CPI.
The current market consensus is a PPI of +0.2% month-on-month, compared to the previous -0.3%; The PPI excluding food and energy is about +0.3% month-on-month.
In other words, the market itself is prepared for the PPI to rebound from its lows.
So tonight we see a +0.2%, which can't be called an inflation rebound.
What really matters is how much it rebounds, and whether the rise comes from energy or has already spread to core services and other costs.
2. Tonight is very likely to rebound, but not explosive
The June PPI fell 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest drop in fourteen months.
But that figure had a strong energy factor: prices for final demand goods dropped significantly, and energy prices fell sharply. Meanwhile, the narrower caliber PPI, which excludes food, energy, and trade, still rose by 0.1%.
So you can't simply assume that -0.3% means the US has entered deflation.
The US-Iran conflict escalated again, with supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East re-entering oil prices, and Brent briefly climbing back above the 80 or even higher range; To this day, the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved.
This means that the rise in energy, transportation, and raw material costs on the enterprise side compared to June is very reasonable.
So I actually don't expect to see another negative PPI tonight.
My baseline scenario is a headline PPI around +0.1%~+0.3%, and near the core it's about +0.2%~+0.3%.
If it ultimately falls here, I think it belongs to a relatively comfortable number: war does create some cost pressures,
But it has not yet evolved into full-blown production-side inflation.
And this is precisely the answer risk assets most want to see right now.
3. The best outcome of tonight
Here's an easily overlooked question.
If the PPI turns sharply negative tonight, it is not necessarily a super positive sign.
Because employment is already poor enough.
If the nonfarm payroll is very poor + CPI is very low + PPI is also suddenly very low
The market will begin to ask why inflation is falling so quickly.
If the answer is that demand is rapidly deteriorating, then the trading logic will gradually shift from [interest rate cut benefits] to [recession trading].
So at this stage, the most perfect data for US stocks is not always better if the numbers are lower.
Instead, employment has cooled moderately, inflation has dropped moderately, and the economy has not suddenly stalled.
This is known as the soft landing window.
Therefore, the truly comfortable PPI tonight is around market expectations: 0.1%~0.2%, with core values not exceeding 0.3%.
4. The danger is that the PPI could reach 0.4% or even higher
This is the biggest tail risk tonight.
Because once both headline PPI and core PPI clearly exceed expectations, the market can no longer simply interpret it as oil prices.
The logic immediately becomes: war → energy/logistics price hikes → rising corporate costs → diffusion of service and goods prices → CPI/PCE rebounding in the future.
Meanwhile, employment in the U.S. has already begun to deteriorate.
If both things happen at the same time: the economy weakens while prices rise again.
That could lead to stagflation.
Inflation itself is actually not that frightening.
Economic weakness itself isn't that scary.
The former can raise interest rates, while the latter can cut rates.
The most troublesome thing is when two appear together.
5. Trading logic of various asset types
If tonight's PPI is below or roughly in line with expectations, the first reaction remains positive for risk assets.
Short-term yields on US Treasuries tend to decline, the US dollar is under pressure, and financial conditions are marginally easing.
Nasdaq, AI, semiconductors, optical modules, storage, software, and BTC/ETH will all benefit.
Among them, software stocks and cryptocurrencies, which are typical long-duration/highly liquid assets, are often the most sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations.
After yesterday's CPI basically met expectations, US stocks reacted similarly: Nasdaq rose, US Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened.
Gold is quite special
Now, gold has two logics at once: the war-hedging logic + the real interest rate logic brought by the weakening US economy.
So with low PPI, lower interest rates, and gold benefits.
PPI is high, but the market is trading on war inflation and stagflation, and gold may find another layer of support.
Therefore, the current macro structure of gold is, to some extent, more comfortable than that of purely high-valuation tech stocks.
I won't use tonight's PPI to judge crude oil direction.
Currently, the top variable in oil prices remains the US-Iran situation, the Strait of Hormuz, actual supply, inventories, and progress in negotiations.
As of today, oil prices are supported by the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations and shipping risks, while also being weighed down by lowered demand expectations and a sharp increase in US crude inventories
So this is a typical geopolitical > supply and demand > Fed #July CPI delivered steadily, September rate hike expectations cooled The July U.S. CPI data has been released, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, with core inflation rising 2.5% year-on-year, both in line with expectations and slightly below forecasts. With inflation cooling down, the market's concerns about a rate hike in September have been temporarily eased.
But as everyone can see, Bitcoin remains lukewarm, while Ethereum is almost unmoved. Many people are puzzled: with macro positive news, why can't the coin price soar?
First, this round of positive news had already been priced in by the market in advance. The CPI release was not a surprise beyond everyone's expectations; early on-stage funds chose to take profits, which is a typical positive factor realized. Macro only reduces the risk of a sharp decline, not that capital is actively entering the market.
Second, the internal pressures of the two coins are completely different.
Above Bitcoin, there are 65,000 to 68,000 trapped positions, and without massive incremental funds, it is difficult to break through;
Ethereum is even more struggling; the Layer 2 network continues to divert funds, lacks independent narratives, and rebounds often lag behind Bitcoin. If Bitcoin remains stagnant, Ethereum will find it difficult to break out of an independent rally.
Summing up the current landscape, the market still remains a game of stock competition.
Macroeconomics determines the lower bound; as long as inflation does not rebound, it is difficult for liquidity to stamp on and plunge;
Chip structure and market narrative determine the upper limit of the upside. Without new stories or clear signals of rate cuts, ordinary economic data cannot drive the main rally. #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool, #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings reports debut one after another With the ETF for XRP, the biggest positive may not be capital inflows, but that valuations can no longer rely solely on story value
In past market discussions $XRP, the most common topics were regulation, litigation, payment cooperation, and bank adoption.
These topics have kept XRP in the spotlight for years, allowing it to remain on the mainstream market cap rankings for a long time even without the most popular DeFi and meme ecosystems.
Now, with the emergence of XRP-related ETF products, traditional funds now have a more convenient entry point for participation. SEC registration documents
Many people interpret ETFs as simply positive buying signals, but for XRP, it may also mean the market will raise stricter questions from now on.
Previously, when regulatory uncertainty previously, XRP's poor performance could be explained as policy suppression; As institutional entry points increase, the market will be more concerned about real demand: how many cross-border payments must use XRP? When financial institutions use related infrastructure, do they need to continuously purchase and hold tokens? After transaction volume expands, where will the value actually accumulate?
ETFs can make a story easier to trade, but they cannot fulfill the narrative.
This is the biggest difference between XRP and BTC.
As long as more people hold BTC long-term, the logic of scarcity will be strengthened. XRP focuses on payments and settlements; if real financial business growth does not generate token demand, the market will sooner or later question the relationship between technology adoption and token value.
But XRP also has an advantage that other altcoins find hard to replicate: its story is understandable to traditional finance.
Slow cross-border settlement speed, high costs, and dispersed liquidity are not problems created by the crypto world, but long-standing issues in the global financial system. XRP does not need to convince banks to believe in Meme and DeFi; it only needs to prove that digital assets can improve capital turnover efficiency.
This is also why its market value has been difficult to completely disappear over the long term.
Many projects need to constantly create new concepts, and XRP just needs to wait for an old problem to become increasingly unbearable.
After the ETF, XRP's short-term price may continue to be driven by news and capital flows, but long-term valuations will increasingly depend on settlement size, liquidity usage, and real business needs.
If this data appears, the market may for the first time stop treating XRP merely as a "regulated concept coin"; If the data never keeps up, ETFs may simply provide existing holders with a more convenient trading channel.
So ETFs are not the end of XRP's story, but more like the bell for the start of the defense.
In the past, it had to prove it could legally stay at the table; now it wants to prove that the global financial system really needs this card.#7月CPI平稳落地, Expectations for September Rate Hikes Cool | BTC I Remain Bearish!
Around 63,700, I temporarily don't consider it a true support.
The biggest issue in the market right now isn't whether there's a rebound, but whether there is enough incremental capital to carry the relay. If volume can't keep up, the longer the 63,700 level is repeatedly worn down, the easier it is to wear down the support.
Many people have started talking about "digital gold" and "21 million coin limits" as long-term narratives, but trading is focused on the present.
Narratives can hold up long-term, and prices can also fall temporarily.
Especially with macro data windows like CPI and PPI approaching, volatility is easily amplified. For me, before the trend truly reverses, a rebound is more about looking for bearish opportunities rather than rushing to buy the dip at a bullish candlestick.
So my script hasn't changed for now:
If it can't hold 63,700→ Continue to be weak;
Rebound without increased volume → continue to seek shorts;
Truly breaking through key resistance with increased volume→ I admit my mistake and cut my losses again.
Short selling is not faith; stopping losses is the bottom line.
Don't fall in love with your own position; if the market moves wrong, just accept it.
$BTC, at this stage, I remain bearish 🐻
It only records personal trading views and does not constitute investment advice.#40 billion ONE abnormal minting, Harmony considers rollback
Brothers, the reason for this morning's waterfall might have been found!
Harmony is suspected to have been attacked by an attacker who minted about 4 billion ONE unauthorized through empty blocks, accounting for about 26% of the supply. Even more outrageous, about 2.8 billion of these quickly flowed to exchanges and faced massive sell-offs.
So the sudden surge in volume and price drop of ONE this morning might not be a normal correction at all, but a huge amount of newly minted tokens dumped directly into the market.
But what really deserves attention now is not how much more ONE can fall, but how Harmony will handle this next.
If the abnormal minting is confirmed, should the project team roll back?
Those in favor of rollback would say: This is abnormal assets created by attackers, why should normal holders pay the price?
Opponents would say: The greatest value of blockchain is immutability; if something goes wrong and you roll back, how is that different from a traditional database?
More importantly, about 2.8 billion ONE have already flowed to exchanges; freezing, recovering, or rolling back could each impact market trust.
If you hold ONE, would you choose to keep holding and wait for the official result, or run first to be safe?
This time, the real victim might not only be Harmony, but the entire market's trust in on-chain rules.#黄金维持高位, institutions remain bullish by year-end
Gold continues to hold at high levels, with several overseas institutions updating year-end target prices. The general optimism is that gold prices will continue to rise in the fourth quarter, with geopolitical risks combined with falling inflation becoming the two core drivers.
This supports the logic behind gold price increases
1. US CPI cooled, rate hike expectations eased, real interest rate pressure eased, and the attractiveness of gold, a non-yielding asset, regained its allure.
2. Geopolitical tensions remain high, global central banks keep buying gold, safe-haven buying supports the bottom, and any pullback will have funds buying in.
3. Institutions generally predict that there is no need to wait for official rate cuts; as long as rates have peaked, gold will have the momentum to continue rising.
We cannot be blindly optimistic
1. Institutional bullish sentiment is scenario-based, not inevitable. If the economy surpasses expectations again and interest rate expectations resurface, gold prices may experience rapid pullbacks, and a sharp correction may occur during a bull market.
2. Pay special attention to one phenomenon: gold is strong, but Bitcoin has not strengthened in tandem. Currently, funds are primarily flowing into safe-haven assets, while risk assets have not directly benefited, and the two have already shown a clear divergence.
3. In risk-averse conditions, funds seeking certainty may divert incremental funds from the crypto market.
In my opinion, a bull run in gold indicates changes in the macro environment, but gold rises ≠ the crypto sector surges directly.
Gold reflects risk aversion + interest rate expectations; Bitcoin is more about risk appetite, ETF funds, and market buying.
In practice, just treat gold as a macro indicator, not directly bet on gold price trends to bet on BTC trends. Only when gold rises and risk appetite also warms will the crypto market truly reap the dividends.Easing hike bets are not translating into broad crypto demand. BTC near $63.7K is down modestly, while ETH and SOL are slightly weaker, a pattern that points to caution rather than a clean risk-on rotation.
With attention split across AI infrastructure earnings, Korean chips and gold, crypto lacks a dominant macro catalyst. My bias is defensive in the near term: BTC may retain relative strength, but the backdrop does not yet support chasing higher-beta assets.
Not advice, just analysis.엘론 머스크 신화에 베팅한 레버리지 포지션이 청산 위기에서 시장 구조의 본질을 드러낸다 머스크의 화성 프로젝트와 테슬라 성공 경험이라는 '스토리 프리미엄'이 이미 가격에 반영된 상태에서, 추가 상승을 기대하고 들어간 레버리지 자금은 어떤 조건에서 생존 가능한가 원문에서 확인되는 사실은 명확하다. 작성자는 SPCX, ETH, SNDK 포지션을 청산가 92달러 수준으로 설정하고, 107달러에서 미실현 손실 21만 달러를 기록 중이다. 2개월 연속 손실 상태에서 마진을 보충하기 위해 지속적으로 차입했고, 은행 대출과 부모님의 노후 자금까지 동원했다. 현재 추가 자금 조달이 불가능한 상황이며, 청산 리스크에 직면해 있다. 이 포지션의 생존 조건은 가격이 92달러 이상을 유지하는 것, 정확히는 현재 가격 대비 약 14% 이상의 하락 여유가 없다는 뜻이다. 이 사건의 시장 구조적 함의는 세 겹으로 읽힌다. 첫째, 머스크 개인 신화에 대한 신념이 하나의 자산군으로 거래되는 현상 자체가 이미 과열U.S. Crypto Regulation Is Taking a New Turn
The biggest crypto regulatory story right now may not be Congress it may be the SEC.
The Senate has pushed the CLARITY Act discussion into September, leaving the market waiting for legislative clarity. At the same time, SEC Chair Paul Atkins is moving forward with a proposed crypto rulemaking framework, with an August 14 vote scheduled on whether to formally propose it. (Coinspot)
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI Market update
The current price of Bitcoin is $63,674.70, down 0.61% in 24 hours. The price fluctuated at 1.85 percentage points, which is not a small fluctuation.
The 24-hour high was $64,496.90, the low was $63,309.40, with a turnover of $225.18M and plenty of long-short trades.
Across the market, 42 stocks rose and 60 fell, accounting for 41.2 percentage points of gains—the sentiment is immediately clear.
The oracle/middleware sector is watching $LINK, with relatively low volume. Let's first see if smart money makes any moves.
The privacy coin sector is focusing on $XMR, with narrowing volatility; wait for the direction before making moves.
The top three gainers were $XDELL +11.75%, $XSPCX +9.50%, and $VIRTUAL +7.09%. Smart money has already voted for it.
The top three leading decliners were $MMT -16.43%, $KAITO-14.81%, and $BABY-12.88%, with profit-taking orders directly flipping the table and fleeing.
Judgment: Set the tone for the number of rising and falling stocks, lead the rise and fall to set the direction, don't go against the smart money.
Publicly available market data does not constitute investment advice; please make your own judgment.
That's all for now—when entering or leaving, it's up to you.Binance not listing on OKB is the most abstract performance art of 2026.
Binance's junk structure will sooner or later be acquired by OKX. @OKX Chinese
The world's largest exchange.
Daily trading volume crushes everything.
The rate of coin listing is even faster than rockets.
All kinds of 'mute dogs,' 'memes,' or projects that can't even be clearly described in a white paper—they still dare to take on them.
Only OKB?
No, it is not allowed.
No matter what, it was not allowed.
This operation is no longer "selective token listing"; it is a carefully crafted awkward performance.
If a user wants to buy OKB on Binance, the system will inform you in the most polite way:
"Dear, we don't have that for now. I suggest you check with the opponent."
Then quietly watch your funds, your fees, your loyalty, all drifting toward OKX together.
What a magnificent vision.
He built a supermarket but posted a notice saying: "The cola store next door is not selling it for now. Please go there on your own." ”
Even more exciting, Binance educates the marketplace every day:
"Platform coins can't just look at short-term price fluctuations; you need to look at the ecosystem, burns, and real demand."
As a result, their own BNB was praised as a faith, while their opponent's OKB wouldn't even be offered spot shares.
Afraid that users might compare and discover that the "platform token" track is not just one player competing in the field.
What is there to fear?
Worried that OKB's trading volume on their own platform looks too good?
Is the scarcity narrative of 21 million hardtops being afraid of users being surprisingly appealing?
Worried someone might suddenly focus on the candlestick and ask, "Why are BNB and OKB appearing on the same exchange at the same time?" ”
A true king is letting competitors' coins circulate on their own turf, then retaining users through depth and experience.
Instead of acting like a petty gatekeeper, stubbornly guarding the door and saying, "We won't accept this brand's goods." ”
Binance's current stance is clear:
I can embrace the entire crypto world,
But it cannot accommodate a platform token that directly matches it.
That's not confidence.
This is called using the largest scale to play the smallest role.
Let's not continue.
At least it leaves the market with a lasting laugh:
The world's largest exchange fears a competitor's hand the most.Corporate Bitcoin Is Moving From the Balance Sheet to the Income Statement
Holding digital assets has always created balance-sheet exposure.
Now it's increasingly affecting earnings as well.
Trump Media's latest quarterly results included substantial unrealized losses tied to digital assets, staked assets and equity investments, highlighting how crypto volatility can directly influence reported financial performance.
This isn't unique to one company.
As more corporations allocate capital to Bitcoin and other digital assets, investors will increasingly evaluate treasury strategy alongside operating performance.
Questions around accounting treatment, unrealized gains and losses, liquidity management and capital allocation are becoming part of mainstream equity analysis.
That's an important shift.
Corporate crypto adoption is no longer just about accumulating Bitcoin.
It's about managing digital assets responsibly within public markets.
The more widespread corporate adoption becomes, the more treasury decisions may influence quarterly earnings, valuation multiples and shareholder expectations.
Crypto is gradually becoming another component of corporate finance.
And investors will analyze it the same way they evaluate every other capital allocation decision.
Do you think public companies should actively manage their crypto holdings—or simply hold them through market cycles?
Share your thoughts below 👇 #TrumpTruthAPILawsuit #TrumpMediaCryptoLosses The most important thing for SNDK today isn't how much it has risen, but whether management dares to say that 👇
"How much longer can AI storage demand last?"
Yesterday, SNDK suddenly surged about 8%, and the market started getting excited again.
But I actually think today's Investor Day is the real exam ground.
Because the last financial report was actually quite contradictory:
📈 Quarterly revenue was approximately $8.97 billion
📈 AI/data center demand remains very strong
📈 The company's long-term customer orders continue to increase
But why hasn't the market bought in directly?
Because the market's real concern is not whether SNDK is making money right now.
Instead:
How long can such ultra-high profit margins last?
This is the biggest valuation divergence for SNDK right now.
If management today can prove:
AI data centers' demand for NAND/Flash continues to expand;
The price and profit margins of high-end storage products can be maintained;
Order visibility for the coming quarters remains high;
So the current valuation of SNDK may need to be recalculated.
But if management starts to stress:
"Cycle Peak"
"Price pressures"
"Profit margin normalization"
"Slowing Demand Growth"
That's a completely different story.
So today, I won't just focus on the stock price.
What I most want to hear from management is one question:
Is the money SNDK is making now a "cycle top profit" or a new normal after the restructuring of storage demands in the AI era?
These two answers may correspond to valuations that are completely different worlds.
Interestingly, after SNDK's sharp pullback from its previous highs, the market has clearly split into two camps:
🟢 Bulls: AI storage demand is just beginning
🔴 Bears: The market has already traded too much ahead of time
So today, I won't call for long or short.
I'm more curious to see which side the market will choose to believe after hearing Investor Day.
What do you think?
👇
Is SNDK's current high profit margin the "cycle top," or the "new normal of the AI era"?
I'm more curious to see how the bears explain it.AI 叙事今天被业绩重新点燃。CoreWeave 大涨 19%，Nebius 暴涨 34%，超微电脑 +19%，IREN +10%——算力租赁成了最性感的生意。
CoreWeave 二季度营收 25.75 亿美元，同比 +112%，还上调了全年资本开支指引。市场在说：别担心 AI 烧钱，需求比烧钱跑得更快。
超微电脑（SMCI）给的 FY27 一季度指引亮眼，直接 +19%；数据中心运营商 IREN、Applied Digital 同步走强。云厂商 capex 上修，整条算力链都在受益。
CoreWeave 这种“重资产 + 高杠杆”的算力租赁模式，你觉得是下一个 AWS，还是下一个 WeWork？
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% What OKB is truly worth watching isn't the $85 million, but how much value it can carry after 21 million coins
OKB is currently around $85, still about 67% away from OKX's all-time high of $258.6.
But now, re-examining OKB, the focus is no longer on "can it become the next BNB."
After the 2025 economic model adjustment, OKB's total supply will be permanently fixed at 21 million tokens, making it X Layer's sole native gas token. In other words, it is transforming from a traditional exchange platform token to a dual value capture of "trading platform traffic + L2 on-chain economy."
What truly determines the next round of valuation is not scarcity itself, but rather the question:
Can X Layer generate real transactions, users, TVL, and gas demand?
21 million coins solve supply issues, while ecosystem growth solves demand issues.
So the biggest highlight of OKB right now isn't "how high the price can rise," but rather:
Can OKX make more and more on-chain events mandatory to use OKB?
If demand continues to expand, fixed supply will truly form value leverage; If ecosystem growth stagnates, even the scarcer tokens will find it difficult to sustainably boost valuations based solely on stories. $OKB #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled Market Trends: Differentiation and Catalysts
Ethereum is gaining attention, and under the "fork bull market," on-chain capital is concentrating on DeFi protocols with real income (such as Hyperliquid, Uniswap, etc.). Asset attributes are becoming increasingly distinct: Bitcoin is gradually "gold-digitizing," while Ethereum and Solana resemble software company stocks with different driving logics, leading to significant divergence in future trends.
The biggest catalyst is on Wall Street
Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, UBS, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch together manage about $20 trillion in assets. If their model portfolios incorporate 1%-2% crypto allocation, it could generate sustained capital inflows in the hundreds of billions of dollars. On the macro level, the US plans to borrow $600 billion in Q4, expanding fiscal deficits and overall benefits for crypto and other risk assets.#芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days
Chips have returned to the center stage in recent days, with Samsung and SK Hynix leading the rally in turn. On the surface, it looks like sentiment is returning, but the underlying logic is solid—AI is pulling storage demand back into an upward trend. But to be fair, this rally can't just focus on the candlestick fever; whether orders can be delivered and whether demand can support a true new industry cycle is the key to determining the height.
Let's start with SK Hynix. The previous rebound peaked at 1154, but now it has pulled back to fluctuate near the 1100 level. In the short term, it broke below MA5 and MA13, and the MACD red bars have clearly reduced volume, indicating that after continuous rallies, some funds have started to cash in profits. However, the overall structure hasn't broken yet, and prices are still holding above the support band formed by EMA144 and EMA169. To reactivate the offensive, the price must first hold above the upper boundary of the short-term box at 1115-1125; otherwise, it is highly likely to continue grinding near 1100.
The logic behind this is actually the same as SanDisk and Micron. The AI market has long passed the "take off with a concept" phase; it has now officially entered the elimination round of "industry realization." Previously, capital was aggressively speculating on computing power and GPUs; now it is digging deep into the segments that truly reap dividends—high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DDR5, which have become new focus points for capital. However, rapid rises do not mean only gains and no falls; after continuous sprints in any sector, short-term pullbacks are mandatory lessons.
Let's shift the perspective back to the macro perspective. Last night, the US July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year and core 2.5%, fully meeting expectations. Although it didn't surprise the rate cut, at least it sealed the risk of rate hikes. Currently, CME data shows the probability of holding rates steady in September is close to 60%, indicating relatively stable sentiment in the US tech sector, providing breathing room for the AI industry chain. For the crypto world, the fact that the macro environment hasn't further deteriorated is good news, marginal liquidity expectations have improved, and BTC's risk appetite has also warmed up.
However, BTC is still in a typical "half-baked" market. 63,000 is short-term support, 65,000 is strong resistance above, and both are missing a breakout catalyst. After the CPI data was released, BTC only edged up 0.3%, indicating that what the market truly craves is the engine of "rate cuts," not the placebo of "no rate hikes." If expectations for rate cuts further ferment and risk appetite continues to rise, BTC will have a chance to challenge the resistance above 65,000. But before a clear signal appears, the market is likely to remain volatile, with the risks of chasing gains far outweighing the opportunities; timing is more important than blindly guessing direction.
How far can this AI storage rally go? SK Hynix has fully capitalized on HBM's first-mover advantage, Micron has capacity replenishment and NAND flexibility, while SanDisk is a flexible target in the pure NAND cycle—which one do you think best? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.
(Market views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.) Crypto and chip volatility are volatile; please make decisions with caution. ）
$SKHYNIX $BTC $ETH One thing many people find most puzzling right now: earlier market trading led to the idea that the Fed might continue raising interest rates, with BTC, ETH, and high-beta assets collectively crashing valuations. Now, July CPI has been moderately delivered, and the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from about 54% before the data release to around 40%. By the simplest logic, as negative news weakens, shouldn't the assets that have fallen the hardest should be the first to recover? (reuters.com) But the market did not move that way. The reason is: the disappearance of negative news only means "fewer reasons to sell," not "the money you bought has returned." These are two completely different sets of funding logic. The previous round of declines was indeed influenced by rising expectations of rate hikes, but macro news acted more like triggers. What truly amplified the decline were the large amount of profit-taking positions, leveraged positions, and risk exposure to overvalued assets accumulated earlier. Once risk appetite weakens, the first thing money usually does is not to judge whether the long-term story has changed, but to: reduce positions→ reduce leverage → lock in profits→ increase cash ratios. After these positions are sold, they won't automatically buy back the way they came, just because a CPI meets expectations. This is also why BTC is currently acting so "awkward"—it is currently around $63,600, and intraday it is still trading between $63,267 and $64,298. The macro environment is now more favorable than a few days ago, but a breakout near 65,000 remains difficult. This illustrates the current market problem that has shifted from: "Will the Fed become more hawkish?" Gradually switch to: "Who."Main reasons for OKB's strength: reshaping the deflationary model, the closed loop of the X Layer ecosystem, and fundamental revaluation led to strategic cooperation with ICE; There is a significant gap between current valuations and the $25 billion platform valuation, and the market is pricing in the room for upside gains.
Deflation Model Reshaped: Supply-side tightening
- Total Lock-up and Burning: 65.25 million OKB were burned at once, permanently locking 21 million tokens, and the smart contract issuance feature was removed, establishing a deflationary model.
- Dual-chain integration: Shutting down OKT Chain, OKT is swapped for OKB at a 1:9.5 ratio, achieving ecosystem and value unification, reducing competition, and strengthening OKB's core position.
- Buyback and Burn: Continuing the quarterly buyback and burn mechanism, OKB is continuously recovered from circulation to enhance long-term scarcity.
Ecosystem Closed-loop: X Layer + Exchange OS drives demand
- X Layer positioning: Established as OKX's sole core public blockchain, based on ZK technology, compatible with Ethereum, targeting a TPS of about 5000.
- Exchange OS staking: Developers who build trading marketplaces need to stake OKB, bringing new lock-in and demand.
- Ecosystem Integration: OKX Wallet and OKX Pay form a flywheel of "exchange-wallet-payment-blockchain" with public chains, driving OKB's use in fees, staking, voting, and other scenarios.
- External Scenarios: OKB has expanded to about 80 application scenarios worldwide, covering payments, lending, wealth management, and lifestyle services, forming external value support.
Fundamental Revaluation: Strategic cooperation with ICE
- Investment and Valuation: ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, invested in OKX, with the platform valued at $25 billion, significantly higher than OKB's fully circulating market capitalization, creating room for revaluation.
- Products and Channels: ICE plans to launch US-regulated cryptocurrency futures at OKX spot prices; OKX intends to provide its users with compliant access to ICE U.S. FUTURES and NYSE tokenized stocks.
- Institutional endorsement: Strategic cooperation enhances brand and compliance image, boosting confidence for both organizations and users.
Room for catch-up: Valuation gap and platform strength
- Valuation gap: OKB's fully circulating market cap differs by more than ten times from the platform's $25 billion company valuation, and the catch-up logic is priced in by the market.
- Platform strength: OKX reserves are about $26 billion, with over 120 million users and a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $10 billion, providing strong fundamental support for OKB.
- Fees and Security: Competitive transaction fee rates, implementing 1:1 proof of reserves since 2023, and establishing a $10 billion protection fund to enhance security and transparency.
Technical aspects and trading references
- Price and momentum: On August 12, the price was around $95.95, approaching the $100 mark; the price has risen about 107.46% over the past year and about 21.64% over the past 30 days, showing strong momentum.
- Risk warning: RSI around 75.04, in the overbought zone, with potential short-term pullback pressure $OKB