Orbit Post Sitemap
🤑 CPI DIDN’T BREAK THE RANGE — SO WHAT NOW?
The latest U.S. CPI print has been absorbed, but the market reaction remains measured rather than explosive.
$BTC is still trading around the $63K–$64K zone, while $ETH is holding near $1.88K–$1.90K. The initial post-CPI move pushed crypto higher, but the real test is whether buyers can sustain the momentum.
The bigger story is positioning and liquidity. 👀
Bitcoin remains trapped inside the broader $62K–$66K range, with institutional ETF demand helping absorb selling pressure.
After an earlier five-day streak that brought roughly $853.5M into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, flows cooled sharply. August 11 saw only around $4.9M in net BTC ETF inflows.
So what matters next?
🔹 Can BTC reclaim the upper end of the range?
🔹 Can ETH hold above $1.88K and regain momentum?
🔹 Do ETF inflows accelerate again?
🔹 Does liquidity finally rotate into higher-beta altcoins?
Until the range breaks, I’m treating every move as positioning—not confirmation.
CPI can move the market. Liquidity decides whether the move lasts. 📊
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #CPI #FedWatch #CryptoStocksLeadRally #AIInfraEarningsWatch
#SpaceX99%ValueFromAI ADA and XRP are often disliked by veteran players, so why do people still buy them in every market cycle?
In the eyes of many crypto-native players, $ADA and $XRP are somewhat "outdated."
They don't have the strong on-chain trading atmosphere of Solana, nor the high payouts brought by new meme coins. New public chains and applications emerge from time to time, but ADA and XRP always revolve around familiar narratives.
But strangely, they re-enter the public eye with each round of market movements.
The reason may be that the crypto community is made up not only of people who use DeFi and on-chain wallets daily, but also includes a large number of ordinary investors who learn about cryptocurrencies through trading platforms.
When these people return to the market, they may not know the latest agreement, but they are likely to remember the names they heard in the previous round.
Brand memory is an asset that is difficult to reflect in on-chain data.
New coins require constant spending to buy attention, while ADA and XRP only need a certain hotspot to reactivate old perceptions and quickly gain trading volume. They may not have the most active users, but they do have a large potential following.
The reasons for attracting capital for both are also quite different.
XRP's story is closer to traditional finance: cross-border payments, bank collaborations, regulation, and ETFs. Investors are buying the possibility of crypto assets entering the existing financial system.
ADA relies more on long-term communities, technical roadmaps, and the narrative of "slow but still building." Holders are buying a public chain experiment that has survived multiple cycles without disappearing.
The biggest advantage of these assets is that they are not easily forgotten by the market, but their biggest weakness is that survival is easily mistaken for growth.
Staying on the market cap list only proves that consensus remains; To achieve long-term revaluation, real users, apps, payments, or token demand must change.
Therefore, when ADA and XRP suddenly rise in each round, two situations should be distinguished.
One is capital rotation: after BTC and mainstream coins have risen, the market looks for established assets that have not yet started but are well recognized. This rally may be fierce, but its sustainability depends on the overall market.
The other is fundamental changes: institutional entry, real adoption, or ecosystem data begin to change the market's long-term judgment of them. This kind of rally may not be the fastest on the first day, but it is more likely to raise the valuation center.
Old coins are not naturally without opportunities, and new coins do not naturally represent the future.
$ADA and $XRP are the real chips, not because they are more advanced than new projects, but because they have survived countless discussions about being "about to be phased out."
The market can temporarily forget an old coin, but it is difficult to completely eliminate an asset with global recognition and a long-term holder base.Tonight's PPI data release: will ETH rise or fall?
To be honest, no one dares to guarantee this with confidence. But we can sort out the logic and make sure we have a clear understanding.
The PPI itself does not directly determine the rise or fall of $ETH; it influences expectations of Fed rate hikes and is then passed on to risk assets. Data released at 20:30 tonight shows market expectations year-on-year growth falling from 5.5% to 4.9%, and month-on-month from -0.3% to +0.2%. July CPI has already confirmed a cooling down, so tonight everyone is more focused on the monthly rate—if it exceeds 0.2%, it means upstream cost pressures remain, which is not good news.
Let's simply speculate on three scenarios: if the data falls short of expectations and inflation continues to cool, the expectation of "no rate hike in September" will be further confirmed, and $ETH may see a 7%-12% rebound; If it basically meets expectations, then it is neutral to slightly positive, forming a "double moderate" resonance with CPI, but with weaker force; If the monthly rate rebounds more than expected and corporate cost pressures remain unresolved, rate hike concerns will resurface, $ETH will likely be hammered.
Currently, $ETH is fluctuating narrowly in the 1870-1890 range, with weak technical outlook. Last night's CPI positive pulse only gave up after a moment, indicating everyone is waiting for PPI to materialize before acting. Once the data is released, there is a high probability of sharp fluctuations.
Another detail to mention: the initial jobless claims data and Fed officials' speeches are also coming together tonight. If employment data is too strong, or if officials are hawkish again, even if the PPI looks good, the positive news may be diluted. So my advice is simple—first look at how the data moves, don't rush in to gamble on direction. Wait until the first wave of sentiment is released and the trend is clear before acting—take a solid approach.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled In-depth Observation of the AI Storage Industry Chain: Why Has Storage Become an Industry Bottleneck Amid Computing Power Expansion?
Global generative AI continues to iterate, intelligent computing centers are being built on a large scale, and the market focus has long been on GPU computing power. An invisible main thread—the AI storage industry chain—is reshaping the semiconductor supply and demand landscape. NVIDIA executives have repeatedly stated publicly that insufficient memory supply has already limited the large-scale deployment of large model training and inference.
AI scenarios require storage fundamentally different from traditional internet services. Large model training requires large-capacity, high-bandwidth HBM; Online inference faces massive random read/write of small files, requiring extremely high latency stability. The industry is gradually forming a layered architecture: HBM, server DRAM, enterprise-grade SSDs, and cloud storage each have their roles, with clear divergence in the outlook of different niche sectors.
Supply-side contradictions are very prominent. Major memory chip manufacturers have long expansion cycles, with new capacity expected to be released after 2027. Leading cloud providers have already signed long-term price-locking supply agreements with storage companies, prioritizing capacity lock and further intensifying supply-demand tightness in the spot market. In contrast, the pace of recovery in consumer-grade storage demand is weak, and the industry is experiencing a "hot and cold" structural market.
This industry chain is also indirectly related to the crypto market: AI technology development drives the implementation of on-chain AI agents and decentralized computing power projects, and Web3 and AI integration applications continue to explore. Capital's long-term optimistic narrative about AI infrastructure also indirectly affects overall risk appetite in the technology sector.
Industry cycles, technological iteration, and geopolitical supply chain risks are all variables that cannot be ignored. Strong demand does not mean the industry will always rise; once AI capital spending slows, the logic of storage demand will quickly adjust
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool down. #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession, with #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $BTC $BEAT $ETH CPI in Line: How Long Can the Fed's 'Delay Tactics' Last?
Last night's US July CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while core CPI fell to 2.5%, almost a handwritten test tailored to market expectations. Once the data came out, many analysts began to celebrate enthusiastically, believing the overall inflation outcome was settled. But I believe that behind this seemingly safe report card is actually a breeding ground woven by the Federal Reserve through a "delaying tactic," and the market may have celebrated a bit too soon.
The most troubling question now is whether the Fed will choose to keep rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% at the September meeting, or if there is still a possibility of a rate hike. Looking at CME interest rate futures data, about 40% of people are still betting on a rate hike, causing market anxiety.
In my view, the actual probability of a direct rate hike in September is extremely low; keeping rates unchanged is the Fed's least resistance choice.
The Fed is now in a dilemma. On one hand, recent employment data and unemployment indicators are clearly worsening, and the whistle of recession can already be faintly heard in the air. If they continue to raise rates with a dark face in this situation, it would be like actively hitting a wall against a recession. On the other hand, the 3.4% CPI is still far from the Fed's 2% target inflation, and the painful lesson of the 1970s—when premature rate cuts led to a resurgence of double inflation—still lingers like a ghost in the Fed's meeting room.
Therefore, maintaining the current interest rate has become their only balancing act.
This explains why 40% of market participants are still wary of rate hikes. This is not because economic data supports rate hikes, but rather the result of the Federal Reserve's proactive "expectations management." Powell and his group know very well that as soon as they show even the slightest sign of dovish, financial markets will immediately use sharp rallies to drain liquidity early. To prevent previous tightening efforts from failing, they must use hawkish verbal threats to forcibly keep the possibility of rate hikes on the table. This stubbornness is precisely the insurance they bought for September's "hold on for the table."
But this persistent 'sense of security' may be a chronic bleed for the crypto market.
We need to be wary of an implicit logic: when inflation is slowly falling from 3.5% to 3.4% or even lower, while the Fed's policy rate remains stuck between 3.5% and 3.75%, it means real interest rates are continuously rising. In other words, even if the Fed doesn't raise rates in September, real liquidity in the market is still being silently tightened further.
For Bitcoin and the overall crypto market, until the Fed truly opens a rate cut channel, the macro liquidity ceiling is locked. This is also the deeper reason why the market has been constantly surging and retreating lately, lacking sustained upward momentum. In the coming September, we will most likely continue to endure this torment of "extreme cold volatility" and wide volatility.
Hold onto your cash and control your hands. Before the Fed's delaying tactics decide the winner, don't rush to run out of bullets.
Finally, a question: since inflation meets expectations, do you think the Fed will hold rates above 3.5% until the end of the year, or will it cut rates under pressure before the November election?
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled $BTC climbed to 63,800, up 0.67% in 24 hours. On social media, voices like "The funds are back," "The bottom is done," and "Institutions are rushing to buy" have started up again. But I don't believe it.
This rebound feels more like the bears taking a breather after selling hard, rather than incremental funds actually making a comeback.
The evidence is clear. On August 13, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $61.1 million, with BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC both seeing outflows. The cumulative $865 million inflow over the past week seems decent, but it was completely absorbed by miner selling pressure and hedge fund arbitrage, failing to push the price off the trend.
No whale consensus is also seen on the chain and bullish sentiment. Paxos-linked addresses sold a total of 2,500 BTC in two months, and shipped another 800 in the past eight hours; Additionally, a whale who had been dormant for two years transferred 1,770 BTC to exchanges, suspected to be selling. You call this a grabber-hunting move?
The technical side is more direct—on the 4-hour chart, every rebound high is lower than the last, a typical bearish structure. There was support at 63,200, but as soon as it approached 64,000, it was pushed back. After the CPI positive data came out, the price surged to 64,400 and quickly retreated—a classic case of 'buying expectation and selling facts'—continued buying simply doesn't exist.
The 63,800 bullish candle was just a brief rebound caused by the bears' temporary rest and the market depth being too shallow. The money hasn't returned; it's just the bears taking a breather.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled Japan's rate hikes hide crypto sell-off risks! Historical data reveals the logic behind a chain of capital crashes
Japan is a core source of cheap global financing, with long-term ultra-low interest rates fueling trillion-yen carry trades: institutions use low-interest yen to exchange for US dollars, heavily holding $BTC, $ETH, and other highly volatile currencies. Once rates are raised, financing costs rise, arbitrage opportunities disappear instantly, funds are forced to sell crypto to repay debts, liquidity is rapidly withdrawn, and the crypto sector is the first to fall under pressure.
Historical data confirms the bearish pattern: after three rate hikes in March, July 2024, and January 2025, BTC pulled back 23%, 26%, and 31% respectively, with an average drop of over 27%, with ETH and altcoins falling even more. The market is clearly divided into two phases: during the rate hike expectation phase, funds reduce leverage early, causing the market to continue shrinking volume and decline; after the rate hike is implemented, if the yen strengthens sharply, carry positions are being closed out in large numbers, easily triggering a chain of liquidations and amplifying the dip.
There is clear divergence in sub-sectors: high-leverage themes and US-based storage-mapped tokens bear the heaviest selling pressure; $BTC digital gold attributes provide short-term safe-haven support, with relatively mild declines. However, if rate hikes exceed market expectations, risk appetite across the market collapses, and all coins weaken simultaneously.
On a practical level, during the rate hike window, contract leverage must be reduced to avoid small-cap alts; Only position in batches at the $BTC deep drop support level, avoiding blind bottom-fishing. Tightening yen liquidity is a global negative factor, making sustained bull markets unlikely in the short term.
#日韩同日抛售美元护汇
⚠️ This is a macro review only and does not constitute investment advice#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 CPI降温，但市场还没拿到“降息剧本”
美国7月通胀数据平稳落地：CPI环比上涨0.1%，同比从3.5%回落至3.4%；核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比从2.6%降至2.5%，均符合市场预期。
但图片里有一点需要纠正：现在市场讨论的并不是“9月降息”，而是美联储会不会继续加息。CPI公布后，9月加息预期明显降温，市场定价大约为四成左右；维持3.50%—3.75%利率不变，仍是概率更高的选项。
数据出来后，美债收益率和美元走弱，黄金先跌后涨，BTC则继续在震荡区间内消化消息。原因也很简单：3.4%的通胀虽然在降，但距离2%的目标仍然不低；能源、关税和财政赤字带来的中长期压力也没有消失。
所以这份CPI只能说明美联储9月“没那么急着加”，并不代表宽松周期重新启动。接下来PPI、PCE和就业数据才是关键。对加密市场来说，短线偏利好，但在政策路径彻底明朗之前，更像是缓解压力，而不是单边行情的发令枪。@OKX星球 ⚠️ Bitcoin’s Major Bear-Market Warning Events
Bitcoin has experienced several major crashes triggered by hacks, regulations, leverage, and industry failures:
1️⃣ 2011 — Mt. Gox Hack
A major security breach caused BTC to collapse by nearly 99%.
2️⃣ 2013–2015 — China Regulations + Mt. Gox Bankruptcy
China tightened restrictions on Bitcoin trading while Mt. Gox collapsed, leading to an approximately 80% decline.
3️⃣ 2017 — ICO Crackdown
After the ICO boom, tighter regulations and advertising restrictions triggered a major correction of around 80% from the peak.
4️⃣ 2022 — Terra/LUNA Collapse + FTX Bankruptcy
The LUNA depeg followed by FTX’s collapse caused another severe crypto downturn, with BTC falling roughly 70% from its peak.
5️⃣ 2025 — Massive Liquidation Event
The October 10 selloff, fueled by tariff tensions and excessive leverage, triggered widespread liquidations. BTC has since fallen around 47% from its peak.
📉 History shows that Bitcoin’s biggest downturns often come after a combination of excessive leverage, regulatory pressure, and major industry failures.
bitcoin:native ethereum:native
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound
#HarmonyMintRollback
#CPIEasesHikeBets Not just hindsight; tonight's PPI is very likely to meet expectations
Yesterday, July CPI was 3.4% year-on-year and only 0.1% month-on-month,
Moderate inflation has been confirmed.
Tonight's PPI annual rate is expected to be 4.9% (previous 5.5%). If expected, it would simply continue the cooling narrative established by CPI, not a new surprise.
After the CPI arrived, ETH surged to 1,924.97, then fell back more than 70 points to around 1,870, indicating that the "buy expectation and sell fact" is already unfolding—
Even if PPI meets expectations, it is unlikely to trigger a second sustained rebound.
Most likely, it will also rally and pull back, BTC, ETH, OKB, SPCXSpaceX's earnings report beat expectations, the lock-up ended without selling, the stock price rebounded back to the issue price—I stared at the screen and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: when everyone is staring at the same gun, the person who fired it is often not the most dangerous. 🚀 $SPCX: The "target" in the shooter's game. SpaceX's Q2 revenue was $7.81 billion, a 92% year-on-year increase, far exceeding the expected $6.93 billion; loss per share was only $0.09, far better than the expected $0.26. But capital expenditure soared to 18.4 billion, with 15.8 billion of that burning for AI. After the earnings report, the stock fell 7%-8% in after-hours trading, then on August 6, 911.5 million shares were unlocked—everyone thought a flood was coming. And what happened? On the opening day, the stock price rose 6.14%, followed by a cumulative gain of 23% over the next two days. Citi maintained a $200 target price, and Deutsche Bank said that at current prices, the space business has basically covered the entire stock price, and the market's pricing in AI business is close to zero. But on August 20, the second round of lock-up—319 million shares—was already on the way. In the shooter game, SpaceX is the one with the most accurate marksmanship, watched by everyone. Just because the first round didn't explode doesn't mean the second round won't explode. Everyone watches its moves, and every move it makes is magnified and interpreted. 💰 $BTC: The little pig standing nearby waiting for the big pig to step on the pedal BTC is currently fluctuating between 63,000 and 65,000. CryptoQuant analysts predict a 55% probability of August fluctuating between 57,700 and 67,000, with a 30% likely#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
#芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days
The CPI is out, but this time it's really a lack of vision
Just now, I was thinking about waiting for $BTC to fall below $62,000 before considering exiting.
But then the market rebounded and completely wore down my patience.
This short position was taken all the way from the high, and the process of floating profit pullback was actually quite tough. After trading for so long, I still fantasized about accurately capturing the top and the lowest point.
But the reality is, the market won't keep the fattest segment for you completely.
So this time, I decided to pocket part of it first.
The money earned is the real profit that belongs to oneself. Only by keeping cash and principal in hand can one continue to participate in the market.
After CPI, why is the market so volatile?
After the CPI was released, the market's initial reaction was not as simple as imagined.
The data itself is not particularly bad; inflationary pressures are still slowly cooling down, but some detailed indicators are not enough to fully allow the market to fully trade in rate cut expectations.
As a result, the market experienced a very typical wave of news fluctuations.
After the data came out, BTC first dipped rapidly, then quickly surged again.
For bears, this kind of movement is the most tormenting.
The price couldn't fall, so profit-taking orders started to be pocketed, and some shorts had to replenish their positions. As a result, the market quickly shifted from a decline to a rebound, eventually resulting in a pattern of repeated sweeps up and down.
So often, trading isn't just about looking in the right direction.
Direction determines whether you can make money, and rhythm determines how much profit you can ultimately make.
BTC: Around 63,000 has become a key short-term battleground
After BTC began to pull back around $65,000, there was a clear battle between bulls and bears around $63,000.
The multiple consecutive consolidation at this level indicates that there is not a complete absence of buying downstairs.
However, at the same time, selling pressure from above still persists.
In the short term, focus on the 64,000–64,500 range.
If BTC can recover and stabilize above this range, market sentiment is likely to strengthen again, and around 65,000 or even 65,500 could once again become bullish targets.
Conversely, if 63,000 is effectively broken again, the market will need to reconsider the lower levels.
The 60,000–62,000 range may once again become a support band for the market.
Currently, it seems more like a volatile game rather than a clear one-sided trend.
News updates, capital flows, and changes in sentiment can all suddenly accelerate the market.
So at this stage, rather than blindly guessing directions, it's more important to manage your positions well.
MU: AI and storage cycles remain core logic
$MU Today's trend is also worth further monitoring.
Currently, market attention on Micron remains focused on AI demand and the cyclical recovery of the storage industry.
Especially with the continuous expansion of HBM, high-performance storage, and data center construction, the entire storage industry chain has strong fundamental potential.
But the same problem remains.
When a stock is priced in in a lot of optimistic expectations in advance, its sensitivity to positive news actually decreases.
The $140 area can continue as a short-term observation position.
If it can break through with increased volume and hold firm, then the upside space may open up further.
However, if the rally then quickly retreats, it is also important to be cautious of short-term funds cashing in profits by leveraging favorable factors.
Good fundamentals do not necessarily mean the stock price will only rise and not fall in the short term.
SNDK: The story remains, but be cautious when chasing highs
$SNDK's logic is actually quite similar.
The storage demand brought by AI has not disappeared; the industry story still holds true.
But the capital market has never been just about stories.
What truly determines whether the market can continue to rise is whether new funds are willing to take over the market going forward.
After continuous gains, short-term profit-taking positions naturally increase.
So the closer you get to a high point, the less you should chase just because you see a strong rally.
A truly healthy strong market often doesn't rally wildly every day, but rather continues to see support after a pullback.
If capital is willing to buy every adjustment, then the trend deserves more attention.
This time, I didn't get to the last part, so there's nothing to regret
Saying I have no regrets at all is definitely false.
Watching the floating profit pull back from its high point by a large margin can still feel a bit uncomfortable.
But that's how the deal is.
The fish head is bad, and the tail is just as bad.
Trying to sell precisely at the highest point is often just a fantasy.
At least this time, I didn't let a profitable order turn into a losing one, which was a good answer to myself.
First, take out part of the profits.
The market won't give you another chance just because you didn't fully absorb this time.
What truly matters is:
Don't return the profits you've already made to the market just for the last bit of profit.
Take it when it's time to take.
Reduce positions when it's time to reduce them.
When it's time to exit, stop competing with the market.
The market moves every day, and opportunities never come only once.
This time, I won't eat fish tail; next time, I'll find a more comfortable spot.
Trading isn't about who earns the most each time, but about who can survive in the market forever.
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another Path lock-in is also an innovation burden. Bitcoin's irreplicability is not just about the political neutrality brought by the disappearance of founders mentioned in the previous article; it also has another side: protocol upgrades are locked down by conservative community culture. This lock-in has left Bitcoin far behind other projects on many technical issues, most directly reflected in its procrastination in resisting quantum. Anti-quantum encryption algorithms have already been included in the standard configuration list for the next decade by many banks and central bank-level institutions in the traditional financial industry. In other words, for a network managing trillions in assets, whether it can withstand attacks from quantum computers is no longer an academic issue, but an engineering timeline issue. But when it comes to the Bitcoin community, it's a completely different story. Discussions about whether to introduce quantum-resistant signatures, when to introduce them, and which solution to use have existed since the early days. Although recent proposals (such as BIP-360 and BIP-361) and sidechain testing have emerged, there has yet to be a mainnet activation consensus and requires a long period of community tug-of-war. This almost paranoid conservatism in the Bitcoin community is not caused by immature technology, but rather by being welded to the non-replicable identity. Once a project is deemed non-replicable by the market, any proposal that might change the core rules is scrutinized under a magnifying glass. The proposer's answer is not "Does this change make sense?" but "Will this change undermine Bitcoin's native design?" The latter question carries much greater weight than the former$100,000 for "a few milliseconds": When the president's post turns into paid insider information, what are we still playing?
Over the past year, how many times have you only realized after seeing Trump's post—oh, the market is moving again?
Tariffs, the Iran war, monetary policy—one of his updates, the S&P 500 surged 9% in a single day.
By the time you see it, the price has already skyrocketed or crashed.
You might think it's because "the news was too fast, I couldn't keep up."
The truth is—you're not even on the same starting line.
On August 12, two American media organizations—The Intercept and the Foundation for Press Freedom—filed a lawsuit against Trump in federal court in New York.
Sue what?
Sue him for the paid data service called "Truth API."
This service, charging $60,000 to $100,000 per month, pushes posts from Trump and other senior White House officials to paying Wall Street agencies at a "millisecond" speed.
$100,000, buying a few milliseconds.
A few milliseconds, in quantitative trading, means a profit margin of tens of millions of dollars.
More than 10 high-frequency trading firms have already signed on, with expected annual revenues of $7 million to $12 million—two to three times the company's total revenue from last year.
The complaint included a passage I read three times—
"The president gains economic benefits by providing government information that 'influences the market' to those willing and able to pay their personal companies."
To translate:
Trump posts a post that could affect the market—Wall Street pays money, sees it a few milliseconds in advance, completes the trade layout—then you see it—the price has already changed—you chase the high or cut losses—Trump's company is making money.
And you are the only one in this chain who pays money but is always half a step behind.
The Advocacy Director at the Foundation for Press Freedom said:
"The president sells priority access to the information he releases to the outside world for profiting private enterprises under his control—this behavior is so blatantly corrupt and unconstitutional that it would have been unimaginable just a few years ago."
A few years ago, it was unimaginable. Today, it is already online.
You might ask: Isn't this just the "information gap"? Wall Street has always had Bloomberg terminals and professional data services—what's the difference?
The difference is—this "information source" itself is the creator of the information and also the largest shareholder of this information service.
Trump holds more than 40% of Trump Media Technology Group's shares.
He posted a post—his company made money. He sold the post early to Wall Street—his company made another profit.
One piece of information, double the profit.
And when you see it, the soup is gone.
What's even more ironic?
Trump Media Technology Group posted a loss of $238 million in the second quarter of this year.
Bitcoin holdings lost hundreds of millions of dollars. Daily active users were only 260,000, a year-on-year plunge of 40%.
No traffic, no ads, no cryptocurrency.
Then they discovered a new business model—selling the president's "time lag."
During his second term, Trump posted and reposted about 10,000 posts on Truth Social, much of which was not accompanied by an official White House statement.
In other words—if you want to know what the president is saying right away, the only way is through his own paid platform.
Democratic Senators Warren and Schiff have already written to the SEC requesting an investigation.
But the investigation takes time.
And the market is trading every millisecond.
Back to ourselves.
What are we facing in this market?
It's an algorithm that is a few milliseconds faster than you. It's an institution that spends $100,000 a month to buy 'priority rights.' It's a president who can make money by posting a single post.
Are you still watching candlesticks, counting waves, and analyzing MACD golden and dead crosses?
What they play with is the production, distribution, and pricing of information.
You're analyzing the "past." They're trading the "future"—a future a few milliseconds ahead.
I'm not trying to make you despair.
I'm here to wake you up.
In this market, "fairness" has never been the default setting.
If you don't have a $100,000 monthly fee, no millisecond-level fiber optics, no AI algorithms to automatically interpret posts—
Then don't think of yourself as an "information trader."
You can only be a "price follower."
And the only survival rule for price followers is not to chase news—it's to wait until the news has been fully digested before looking at the direction.
Trump posted that institutions completed trades within milliseconds, and the market digested them within minutes.
If you rush in now, whose market are you catching?
Think to yourself.
When information itself becomes a commodity, and the creators of information are also sellers—this market is no longer just about trading assets.
It's about trading "who sees first."
And you, you are never the first to see it.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP #特朗普因TruthSocial付费数据流遭起诉 The same CPI, two different worlds: celebrating on one side, getting beaten up on the other 😅
Guys, last night's CPI data really took the word "differentiation" to the extreme.
The data itself is correct: 3.4%, 2.5%, 0.1%, all three figures accurately meet expectations, no more, no less.
According to the classic script, inflation cools→ rate hike expectations cool, risk assets should rise→ and all should be happy. So what happened?
On the crypto side, it's a classic 'all good news is being spent' scenario:
· Bitcoin $BTC: Before the data came out, it surged to 64,400, but as soon as the data hit, it crashed straight to 63,800. The $600 surge was all taken back, as if it had never risen.
· Ethereum $ETH even more straightforward: 1,924 touched once, then turned and hit 1,872, no resistance.
The two-week expectations have already been bought in advance. When the data lands, it's the whistle of exit—this is the crypto world's reaction.
---
On the US side, the situation is completely different:
· SK Hynix rose 9%
· SanDisk rose 5%
· Seagate rose 7%
· The storage sector ignited collectively, like a burst of adrenaline
· SpaceX closed at $146, up 9.7% in a single day, climbing nearly 40% from the low of 108
· Gold spot prices touched 4448, closing at 4408, regaining the 4400 level
For the same CPI, the crypto world reads "all the good news has been released," while the US stock market reads "soft landing confirmation"—the same test paper, two scores.
---
The subsequent developments became even more divided:
Bitcoin is oscillating around 63,500; if 63,000 fails to hold, there will be no decent buying below below.
US stocks are still on the move, but Morgan Stanley has already started warning that "valuations are too high."
The warning signals on both sides are in opposite directions—do you believe in a "soft landing" in US stocks, or in the crypto world's "good news is coming out"?
---
By the way, let's talk about the value of "digital gold":
· This year, the gold $XAU rose 9%
· Bitcoin fell 11%
Market behavior has long said it all: digital gold and physical gold have long been separated.
#7月CPI平稳落地 #币圈VS美股 #利好出尽还是软着陆 #数字黄金名不副实Glassnode: Bitcoin enters late bear market compression phase, but real demand signals have yet to appear
The latest report from on-chain institution Glassnode offers a very realistic cyclical assessment: selling pressure is slowly fading, but substantial buying has yet to truly enter the market.
How should we understand the current situation?
The so-called bear market compression phase: selling orders can no longer be pushed forward, fewer profit chips flee, market volatility continues to narrow, trading volume remains sluggish, and this is a bottoming phase.
But the key point is: just because you can't sell doesn't mean buyers have arrived.
ETF funds have not seen sustained net inflows; exchanges still have chip inflows, spot market support is weak, and derivatives leverage alone is playing for a rebound, with real spot demand lacking.
Two key positions
Above 68,700, volume increase + ETF capital inflow needs to stabilize to break the compression pattern;
Below 58,500, buying interest is thin; if it falls, it could accelerate downward.
Many people, seeing selling pressure weaken, immediately jump in and bet on the big bottom, which is a common pitfall.
Selling pressure exhaustion is a prerequisite for bottoming, not a signal for reversal. Bottoming can last a long time; bearish declines and grinding are the norm.
Personal opinion
This is the brewing period for the bottom; don't blindly assume the bottom has already been reached.
You can position spot positions in batches, but avoid heavy positions and one-sided reversals; Do not bet on major market moves in contracts in advance; wait for volume to increase and capital flow improves before following suit.
A real reversal must be when selling pressure subsides + genuine buying resonates; both are indispensable.Goldman Sachs’ $2.25B NEOS acquisition is about more than buying an ETF manager—it’s a direct move into Bitcoin yield products.
NEOS manages around $30B, including BTCI, which generates income by selling call options. But don’t be fooled by its ~27% distribution rate: high yield doesn’t guarantee high returns, and upside can be limited during strong BTC rallies.
The bigger picture is Goldman’s growing ETF strategy. By combining Innovator and NEOS, Goldman is targeting both downside protection and income generation.
Spot ETFs made Bitcoin easier to trade; yield ETFs aim to make Bitcoin generate cash flow. If this trend expands, Wall Street could reshape how institutions participate in the crypto market.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound
#AIInfraEarningsWatch
#SpaceX99%ValueFromAI "Predictions for BTC in the Next 60 Days"
August 13, 2026 · Thursday
Third Quarter · Issue 99
Aspirin · Period analysis from the perspective of a data scientist
BTC currently priced at about $63,900. In May 2026, it fell 3.5%, in June it dropped 20.4%, in July it rebounded 7.3%, and has risen slightly since August. The July rebound indicates that the rapid decline in June has been repaired, but it does not yet prove that the mid-year correction has ended. Both 2018 and 2022 saw rebounds after summer lows, followed by several weeks of low volatility, with the main yearly lows still occurring later.
1. On historical months and price pressure zones
The monthly rhythms in 2018 and 2022 were similar to this year: May and June closed lower, July rebounded, and August and September weakened again. In 2014, there was no July rebound, but instead a continuous decline from June to September. Recalculated using Coin Metrics daily prices, August and September 2018 saw declines of 9.1% and 6.0% respectively, 2022 dropped 14.3% and 2.9%, and 2014 saw declines of 17.8% and 18.7%. These three samples are insufficient to prove seasonal patterns, but they all indicate that the July rebound in a mid-year year should not be directly interpreted as the end of a bear market.
Using $63,900 as a benchmark for stress testing, a 10% drawdown corresponds to about $57,500; If it pulls back another 8% on this basis, the price would be around $52,900.
Therefore, $56,000 to $58,000 can serve as the first level of risk observation zone, while $50,000 to $53,000 is a deeper resistance zone. These two ranges are used to measure the extent of pullback, not price targets, and certainly do not mean the market will reach them.
The strength of the summer rebound is also relatively weak. In 2018, BTC rebounded nearly 50% from its summer lows, and this round of rebound from summer lows was once only about 16%. The relevant social attention index is currently around 0.2, significantly lower than the roughly 0.4 to 0.5 levels in the same period of 2022, but closer to 2018. Lower attention usually corresponds to lower trading activity, and short-term volatility may narrow, but the rebound also lacks sustained new capital supply.
2. On cycle days and bear market duration
The main lows of the first two cycles roughly appear on days 1436 and 1432 of their respective cycles. Currently, they are around day 1360, and sixty days later will approach day 1420, entering the range of one to two weeks before and after the historical low. The number of days close to each cycle low in recent cycles is also relatively close, with an error of about ten days. The time dimension alone cannot determine prices, but it shows that the period from late September to October is not a randomly chosen date interval.
The results given by bear market durations are similar. The last two complete bear markets lasted about 52 and 54 weeks, and this round corresponds to the weeks of October 5 and October 19, respectively; The earlier cycle lasted 59 weeks, corresponding to the week of November 23 this year. The main lows of the first three cycles were in January, December, and November. If such monthly migrations are still valuable, October will become the next candidate month. However, the sample for monthly migration is even smaller and can only serve as supporting evidence.
The experience of 2018 also reminds us that the sideways period may last longer than expected. At that time, after BTC rebounded in July, there was no clear direction from August to October, and it only dropped sharply again in November. The summer equilibrium in 2022 lasted until mid-August. Therefore, the fact that August did not immediately break out only indicates a temporary balance between supply and demand and cannot be used as evidence to confirm that a major low point has appeared.
3. Three scenario forecasts for the next 60 days
1. A major low will form near October, with a subjective probability of about 50%. August and September remain weak, with BTC falling below $60,000 and the summer low, with $56,000 to $58,000 being tested by the market first; If on-chain indicators continue to decline, the $50,000 to $53,000 range will enter the observation range. Price breakouts and on-chain resets need to occur simultaneously; a mere short-term decline is insufficient to confirm this scenario.
2. The market continues sideways into November, with a subjective probability of about 30%. Support remains near $60,000, prices remain low, and on-chain indicators like MVRV Z-Score have not completed the reset typical of traditional bear market bottoms. In this context, the absence of new lows in October cannot be directly interpreted as risk release; historical samples of 59-week bear markets will receive higher weight.
3. The summer low has already been established, with a subjective probability of about 20%. BTC has regained its position above the July rebound high and bear market resistance zone, and after a pullback, a higher low is formed. Even if the MVRV Z-Score does not fall below zero, the price remains strong. If these conditions are met, it indicates that the current market structure differs significantly from the previous three rounds, and the benchmark judgment of another bottom break from late September to October should be canceled.
4. Verification Conditions and Judgment Boundaries
On the price side, focus on the $60,000 and summer lows below, and the July rebound high and bear market resistance zone above. On-chain, near historical bear market lows, MVRV Z-Scores often fall below zero, and comprehensive risk indicators composed of Puell Multiple, MVRV, transaction fees, terminal price, and Thermocap often approach 0.1. These signals have not yet appeared, so it is not yet confirmed that the bottom has been completed.
Therefore, the next 60 days should focus on distinguishing between two market states: whether the current sideways movement is a bottoming out or a temporary equilibrium before the final mid-year adjustment. Forecasting a day in October or a minimum price between $50,000 and $53,000 lacks sufficient basis.
My benchmark still leans toward a more meaningful low between late September and October, but only if it breaks below the summer low and is accompanied by an on-chain reset can the credibility of this scenario be raised; Of course, if BTC holds above the July rebound high and bear market resistance zone, I will promptly abandon my original judgment.
I will continue to record the above price and on-chain indicator changes in the Aspirin · Cycle Lab discussion group. No profit promises are made here, nor are any trading decisions made for anyone; Each judgment is retained with a date and expiration condition for easier review.
#7月CPI平稳落地. Expectations for a rate hike in September cool down #CPI data is the core turning point for BTC right now
The information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice
Current market status
$BTC has been oscillating between $62,000 and $66,000 for five consecutive weeks, with bulls and bears repeatedly pulling and pushing the market into a grinding phase. The market generally expects tonight's CPI to break out of the current box and to break out of the direction selection.
Currently, it's easy for a market to trigger a spike to lure bulls and bears, likely leading to a bottoming out first, followed by a V-shaped recovery. Near 65,000, it's not suitable to chase the rally directly; chasing high can easily trigger a short-term rapid pullback. It's better to wait for a pullback and stabilization before considering positioning.
Why does CPI determine the short-term trend trend?
Last week's nonfarm payroll data fell short of expectations, and the market initially believed there would be no rate hike in September. However, several Fed officials voiced hawkish stances, and Walsh publicly stated that if inflation remains high, rate hikes will begin in September.
Therefore, this CPI data directly determines the Fed's future monetary policy stance.
The mainstream market expectation for CPI year-on-year to fall slightly from 3.5% to 3.4%; However, inflation in the core services sector remains highly resilient, posing risks of inflation exceeding expectations.
Two scenario simulations
1️⃣ CPI data declined, inflation cooled
Expectations for a rate hike in September cooled off directly. Combined with the large net inflow of spot BTC ETFs this week, BlackRock accounted for the vast majority of inflows, with institutions continuing to enter and accumulate shares.
Driven by favorable conditions, $BTC is expected to break upward and challenge the $66,000 range.
2️⃣ CPI exceeded expectations, causing inflation to rebound again
The probability of a rate hike in September climbs back above 50%, putting concentrated selling pressure on risk assets.
$BTC will pull back to the $62,000–$63,000 range, so you can wait for a chance to buy after the pullback.
Truly practicing the thought process
Do not blindly chase long near $64,000; it is easy to be harvested by short-term shakeouts.
After the data is released, market fluctuations can be extremely volatile. Don't rush in to gamble—first observe the authenticity of the first wave of the market.
Quality trading opportunities depend on waiting, not betting on direction. Before the market moves, impatient trading can actually lead to losses. Be patient and wait for clear signals from the market before making a move.
⚠️ Risk warning: CPI release can cause huge volatility. The above is only market logic analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Be sure to manage your positions well. $BTC $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地, September rate hike expectations cool off #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% #芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days Latest signal on BTC liquidity cycle chart!
Currently, liquidity indices are rapidly falling to historic lows, highly similar to the late bear markets of 2015, 2018, and 2022. At the same time, realized market capitalization remains high (about 1.2T), indicating capital is not withdrawing en masse, but has entered a "low liquidity + high lock-up" state.
Historically, this combination has often appeared near the cycle bottom. Short-term growing pains intensify, but medium- to long-term supply contraction, accumulating momentum for the next round of gains. Watch whether the liquidity index stops falling and rebounds.The CPI was delivered as expected, so why did $BTC fall instead of rising?
The information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice
Core Event
July U.S. CPI data all met market expectations:
- CPI +0.1% month-on-month, +3.4% year-on-year
- Core CPI +0.2% month-on-month, +2.5% year-on-year
Housing costs are the main driver of inflation, contributing two-thirds of this CPI increase, while energy prices fell 1.5% month-on-month. After the data was released, the $BTC did not see a rally; instead, it fell back to around $64,000, playing out a classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" rally.
The underlying logic behind the decline
The market trades not about good or bad data, but about poor expectations.
Before the CPI release, weakening nonfarm payroll data had already lowered the market's chances of further Fed rate hikes. Optimism about rate cuts had already been priced in, and $BTC rebounded back to the $65,000 area.
This CPI only perfectly fulfilled the market's previous expectations, with no surprises below expectations and no unexpected incremental positive development.
Funds that had previously gambled on positive factors and took profits and exited while the data was in the market, directly putting pressure on the market and pulling it down.
Simply put: meeting expectations = no surprises, not enough to drive a new upward rally.
Key observation periods for follow-up
With the CPI data settled, the rally's focus shifts to defending the support zone: the key is the $63,000–$63,800 range.
1. If the price can hold above this range: This is a consolidation shakeout after positive news has been realized. The original medium-term structure has not been broken, but it will take time to absorb the selling pressure above.
2. If this support is effectively broken: it means selling pressure remains heavy above 65,000, bulls lack strength, and the market will further open up downside space.
Market insights
The data meeting expectations only means there are no new negative factors, but it does not mean the market will rise.
The old story of cooling inflation has been fully digested by the market. To push $BTC upward again, new catalysts are needed: either the Fed sends clearer easing signals, or ETFs and on-chain real incremental funds entering the market. Relying solely on old expectations already price-in is unlikely to sustain price increases. $BTC $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地, September rate hike expectation cools #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% This round of CPI has already been released, and all data fully meet market expectations. It is a stable 'boot' landing with a neutral to slightly warm tone, but no unexpected positive developments.
There is no strong incremental stimulus, so a one-sided surge will not start immediately. In the coming days, the pace of US stocks and crypto will be explained separately.
1. Forecast of U.S. stock market trends in the coming days
1. Overall tone: oscillation with a partial recovery, but limited height
Inflation has not rebounded, dispelling market fears of the Federal Reserve restarting rate hikes, and expectations for a rate cut in September remain intact. The Nasdaq and tech growth have a foundation for valuation recovery.
2. Constraints:
The data only meets expectations and hasn't cooled beyond expectations, so funds won't blindly chase higher prices; Next, focus on tech earnings reports and oil price fluctuations.
3. Two paths
Optimistic: The Nasdaq holds its support and continues to fluctuate upward, with AI computing power growth indicators remaining strong;
Caution: After a rally, profit-taking may occur, with the range fluctuating back and forth.
In short: the negative warning has been lifted, but there is a lack of sustained upward momentum and strong catalysts, with the market mainly oscillating.
2. Crypto ($BTC + altcoins) trend in the coming days
Currently, the $BTC remains in a range-bound range of 63,900–65,500, and after the CPI release, it has not broken its original range.
Market characteristics
1. Marginal relief of macro suppression, but it will not immediately break out of a continuous unilateral rally
U.S. stocks stabilizing can support BTC, but it's unlikely to drive a breakout surge; To break out of the box, BTC must hold above 65,500 on increased volume.
2. Continued divergence (key points)
✅ Main grouping themes: $OKB, $ADA, $CFX, $GRVT, $HYPE These funds continuously focus on the target, with swing opportunities repeatedly appearing during fluctuations;
❌ Weak currencies: $WLD, $FIL, $STORJ, $WLFI, $MOVE Still underperforming the market and weak rebound, don't blindly bottom-fish.
3. Risk points
With existing funds competing, it's easy for US stocks to stabilize while knockoffs don't follow suit; If US stocks surge and then retreat, high-volatility counterfeit stocks will pull back even more.
Two scenario simulations
1) Stronger scenario
BTC held the 63,900 threshold, broke through 65,500 on increased volume, opening upside potential. Main coins continue to strengthen, offering opportunities for small- and mid-cap elastic stocks, but it is difficult for a broad rally across the board.
2) Weaker scenario
Multiple attempts to break through resistance above have failed, bullish momentum is exhausted, and a pullback near 64,000 is expected to shake out and confirm support; Weak coins will be the first to weaken, and strong stocks will also experience short-term pullbacks.
3. Practical Approach
1. Macro level: The greatest uncertainty (inflation rebound) has been temporarily resolved, but there is still a way to go before comprehensive easing; it remains a structurally volatile market, not a trending bull market;
2. Position strategy: Do not heavily bet on one-sided positions. Buy on dips near support and take profits in batches near resistance;
3. Stock selection: Prioritize grouping with the main theme, staying away from long-term weak altcoins;
4. Core dividing lines for monitoring: BTC 63,900 (bull-bear dividing line), 65,500 (breakout confirmation level).
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool down; #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession. #芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebounded over 22% in ten days. **Minmetals Resources Delivers Explosive Performance in the First Half: Profits Double More Than More, Bank of America Raises Target Price Overnight**
According to the latest research report from Bank of America Securities, Minmetals Resources (01208. HK) delivered a report card far exceeding expectations in the first half of 2026. Revenue for the period reached $4.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61%; Net profit attributable to shareholders was $897 million, a year-on-year surge of 164%. This report card not only easily beats Bank of America's previous forecasts but is already equivalent to 54% of the market's full-year 2026 profit forecast.
The core logic behind the performance surge is clear: increased sales, rising copper and by-product prices, and a significant drop in C1 cash costs—three of these combined positive factors. EBITDA surged 77% year-on-year to $2.73 billion, with flagship project Las Bambas contributing about $2.25 billion, nearly supporting half the sky. Copper production grew 3% year-on-year to 266,500 tons, meeting 52% of the full-year guidance. Even more impressive was cost control—Las Bambas' C1 cash cost in the first half was only $0.55 per pound, and management simply lowered its full-year C1 cost guidance to $0.85–$1.05 per pound.
The balance sheet repair was equally impressive. Net debt plummeted from $3.35 billion at the end of 2025 to $608 million, with the net gearing ratio improving sharply from 33% to just 6%. Cash reserves increased by $2.8 billion, mainly from strong operating cash flow of $2.23 billion and about $1.6 billion raised in June through convertible bonds and rights issues. The only minor regret is that the company did not pay an intermediary dividend this period.
Based on strong performance in the first half and significant financial optimization, BOM Securities has raised its profit forecasts for Minmetals Resources for 2026–2028 by 16%–22%, raising the target price from HKD 10.5 to HKD 12, and maintaining a 'Buy' rating.
From an industry perspective, Bank of America is quite optimistic about copper price prospects. The world's top 15 copper miners saw a 5% year-on-year decline in output in the first half of the year, and tightening scrap copper supply in mainland China led to refined copper output in July being 4% lower than the forecast at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, grid investment grew 13% year-on-year, with demand still supported. Against the backdrop of limited supply elasticity, the copper market's supply-demand fundamentals continue to improve.
**My Personal Views**
This performance and Bank of America's upward revision essentially validate a judgment: during the cycle of copper price centering shifting upward, mining companies that can truly reduce costs and stabilize output will benefit from the greatest profit elasticity.
Minmetals Resources performed impressively this time, not because of "good luck coinciding with high copper prices," but because Las Bambas' operational efficiency has significantly improved—C1 costs have dropped to $0.55 per pound, which already qualifies as a world-class mine. Cost strength, combined with production pushing production as guided, has allowed profit growth to far outpace revenue growth—this is quality growth.
The balance sheet has rapidly shifted from high leverage to an almost "net cash" state, giving the company greater strategic flexibility. Whether it's potential future dividends, reinvestments, or price fluctuations, it is much more composed than before. Bank of America raised the target price to HKD 12 and maintained a buy position, essentially pricing this "operational improvement + cyclical tailwind" combination.
Of course, risks remain. Las Bambas is located in Peru, where geopolitical and community issues have always been the Damocles sword hanging overhead; Copper prices themselves are highly volatile, and once macro sentiment shifts, short-term price corrections are inevitable. But from a longer-term perspective, global energy transition, grid upgrades, and data center construction drive structural copper demand, while new high-quality copper ore supply is extremely slow. Under this supply-demand pattern, companies like MMG, which have already lowered their cost curves and reduced debt, possess strong anti-cyclical capabilities and upward resilience.
Overall, this is a report of a triple resonance of "earnings realized + financial recovery + industry tailwind." In the short term, the market will continue to digest this exceeding expectations; In the medium to long term, if the copper price center can remain above current levels, Minmetals Resources' valuation still has room to open up. Of course, investors still need to pay attention to Peru's operational stability and copper price volatility risks.Will ETH rise or fall after tonight's PPI data release?
PPI data itself does not directly determine ETH's rise or fall, but it can indirectly influence risk assets like ETH by influencing expectations of Fed rate hikes.
🔍 Tonight's PPI data overview
The US July PPI data, to be released tonight at 20:30, shows the market generally expects year-on-year growth to fall from 5.5% to 4.9%, while month-on-month growth rebounded from -0.3% to +0.2%. Core PPI year-on-year forecast fell from 4.7% to 4.2%.
Since July CPI has confirmed a cooldown, the market is more focused on whether the PPI monthly rate has rebounded beyond expectations—if the monthly rate exceeds 0.2%, it may indicate that upstream cost pressures have not truly eased.
✍🏻 The impact of different data scenarios on ETH
· Scenario 1: PPI below expectations (annual rate < 4.9% and monthly rate <0.2%) → positive for ETH. Continued cooling inflation will reinforce expectations of "no rate hike in September," with ETH possibly experiencing a short-term rebound of 7%-12%. · Scenario 2: PPI meets expectations (annual rate ≈ 4.9%, monthly rate ≈0.2%) → neutral to slightly positive outlook. Resonating with CPI as "double moderate inflation," the probability of a September rate hike may be further revised downward, but the positive effect is weaker than scenario 1. · Scenario 3: PPI rebounds beyond expectations (monthly rate >0.2%)→ negative for ETH. Cost pressures on the enterprise side have not eased, reigniting rate hike concerns, putting ETH under correction pressure.
🔍 The current state of ETH's market
ETH is currently trading in a narrow range between $1,870 and $1,880, with a weak technical outlook. Last night, the positive CPI only brought a brief pulse rebound before pulling back, indicating the market is taking a wait-and-see approach before the PPI release. After the PPI is released, there is a high probability of significant volatility.
⚠️ Risk warning
· Simultaneous data interference: Initial jobless claims data will be released simultaneously with the PPI; strong employment data may offset the PPI's positive effects.
· Fed hawkish speech: Tonight, a Fed official spoke that if they reiterate that "inflation risks still warrant rate hikes," this could partially offset the positive data.
· Geopolitical risk: Sudden news shocks such as the Middle East can amplify ETH's volatility.
⭕ Summary: PPI data is an important variable for ETH's short-term trend, but it is not the only deciding factor. Before the data is released, it is highly likely to remain volatile. It is recommended to wait for data to be finalized and the trend becomes clear before making decisions.
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled Just checked the $ETH liquidation map, and what I’m watching most right now isn’t how high ETH can rally, but whether the lower support zone can survive.
ETH is around $1,876, only about $30 above $1,849. There’s already a large concentration of leveraged long liquidations around that level, including roughly $8.39M at 50x, while total long liquidation intensity is around $152M.
So my view is straightforward: ETH moving sideways around $1,870 isn’t the main concern. The real risk starts if $1,849 breaks decisively.
If that happens, selling could become self-reinforcing:
Price drops → leveraged longs get liquidated → forced selling increases → price falls further.
That kind of liquidation cascade can make the move much sharper than normal technical selling.
This is why I’m paying less attention to simple support and resistance levels. Sometimes the real driver of volatility isn’t a round-number support, but the amount of leveraged positions sitting underneath it.
Compared with ETH, $BTC currently has a less concentrated liquidation structure. If another sharp sell-off hits the market, ETH could potentially act as the bigger volatility amplifier.
If $1,849 holds, it may simply be normal consolidation. But if it breaks, be careful—the market could shift from trading direction to trading leverage and liquidations.
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound
#GoldmanBuysNeos Is Musk just making empty promises again? Don't rush to conclusions; the dreams he makes often end up coming true 🚀
Guys, I just saw Musk's speech at the SpaceX all-hands meeting, and it really lifted my spirits.
"In five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX's value."
With this statement, SpaceX is no longer seen by him as a "rocket company." According to him, AI revenue is expected to exceed the total of all other company businesses by September this year—meaning rocket launches and Starlink services will soon be overshadowed by AI in revenue.
Even more impressive is the computing power plan: by the end of next year, the goal is to reach 10 gigawatts (GW) of computing power. According to his calculation, that would be an annual revenue of $300 billion to $500 billion.
What does 10 gigawatts mean? Hundreds of thousands of GPUs running simultaneously, burning enough electricity to feed a medium-sized city—this isn't just empty promises; it's real spending on infrastructure.
Even more impressive is his roadmap:
"Ground training, space reasoning."
In plain terms: train AI models on Earth and then deploy them in space on Starship and Starlink nodes for inference computation. This means packaging Starship's transport capacity + Starlink network + AI computing power into a single infrastructure.
Rockets are no longer just means of transporting satellites into space; they are paving the way for AI—Starlink covers the globe, and with space computing nodes, the entire network architecture is a dimension above ground data centers.
The path is indeed wild, but the direction is right.
So what does this have to do with our crypto community? Three points:
First, the demand for AI computing power is still exploding—not linear, but exponential.
If Musk's 10 gigawatts really landed, hardware procurement alone would be astronomical. Miners waiting for "computing power costs to drop" shouldn't get their hopes up too much in the short term—demand is still rising, and costs will only get higher.
Second, capital will continue to flock to the AI track.
AI projects and DePIN (decentralized computing networks) projects in the crypto world are more likely to attract attention and secure funding. But the premise is: you have to truly have something, not just be good at presenting PPTs. The market is now aesthetically tired of pure narratives; real data and real use cases are needed.
Third, the intersection between AI and crypto is deepening.
Musk is working on "space reasoning," while crypto projects are pursuing "decentralized computing power"—these two paths may ultimately converge at some point. Whoever succeeds first will be the next generation of infrastructure—the ceiling of this track may be higher than we imagine.
My view:
Musk's words may sound like boasting, but history tells us that the boasting he's made is more likely to be delivered on than most people imagine. Starlink, Starship, and Tesla's AI training clusters—these are all real, not just empty talk.
10 gigawatts is backed by SpaceX's cash flow and Starlink revenue, at least much more reliable than those empty crypto projects. But for traders, this level of narrative involves too long investment cycles. You know it might be right, but the process involves countless fluctuations—not something ordinary people can handle.
Looking at the overall direction, the AI sector is still in its early stages; the real major market has yet to arrive.
Stay focused, but don't rush to go all-in. If the direction is right, rhythm is more important.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% #AI算力爆炸 #太空推理 #DePINGold — $4,378, plunged sharply after surging 4,500
Gold was quoted at $4,378 per ounce, plunging over $70 from this morning's high of $4,449. COMEX futures closed overnight at $4,469. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signaled support for rate hikes, causing the yen to surge, the dollar to return to 100, and gold to be hammered by the dollar's strength. Domestic gold jewelry has broken below 1,340 yuan/gram. Analysts warn of overheated sentiment and the accumulation of chasing risks.
50% are digesting the 4,350-4,420 range; 35% pullback to 4,300; 15% holds above 4,420 and then pushes to 4,450+ $XAUT $ETH AA core developers rush to Ethlabs, accelerating Ethereum's rollout pace
Derek Chiang, founder of the smart account team ZeroDev, which was previously acquired by Offchain Labs, has officially joined the Ethereum protocol development organization Ethlabs.
ZeroDev itself is a veteran infrastructure team in the account abstraction AA track. Last year, it was acquired by Offchain, the company behind Arbitrum, and has been deeply involved in wallet and account underlying solutions.
The core significance of this transfer is very clear.
Ethlabs focuses on underlying protocol development, with the past focusing more on theoretical upgrades; Derek excels at product implementation, and after joining, he will connect Ethereum's underlying technology to developers and commercial projects. Simply put, it's turning technical concepts into on-chain products that ordinary people can use.
In the long run, the accelerated implementation of upgrades such as account abstraction, light client, and fast endgame will lower the entry barrier for Web3 and benefit the overall development of the Ethereum ecosystem.
But it's important to distinguish the timeline: this news is a long-term construction positive and will not immediately boost the market. In the short term, the market will still focus mainly on volume and price games; don't rely solely on a single personnel news story to buy a big position.
When do you think account abstraction will become widely adopted?The main events in the markets today:
🔎 What to look for:
🇬🇧 GDP (Jun) - 09:00
- Previous indicator: 0.1%m/m, 0.9%Y/y
- Standby: 0.0%m/m
🇺🇸 PPI - 15:30
- Previous: -0.3%m/m, 5.5%y/y
- Expectation: 0.2%m/m, 4.9%Y/y
🇺🇸 Core PPI - 15:30
- Previous indicator: 0.2%m/m, 4.7%Y/y
- Standby: 0.3%m/m, 4.2%y/y
🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 15:30
- preliminary figure: 199 thousand rubles.
- waiting: 202 thousand.
Speakers:
🇺🇸 Barkin (FOMC) – 15:40
Indicators:
🇯🇵 PPI - 02:50
🇬🇧 Trade Balance (Jun) - 09:00
🇨🇭 PPI - 09:30
🛢 Natural Gas Storage - 17:30
🇺🇸 FEDʼs Balance Sheet - 23:30
Auctions:
🇺🇸 30y T-Bond - 20:00
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI $SPCX short trade has turned into a painful lesson.
I opened the short around 116.94 with 75x leverage, expecting a drop. Instead, SPCX kept climbing—from 116 to 139, then 147, barely giving any meaningful pullback. It eventually hit 149.47, currently around 146.92, leaving me with a floating loss of over 300U. I’m still holding the position.
At the same time, I ran a 10x long grid strategy on SPCX between 100–250, with an average price of 134.31. I placed 80 orders with only 18U invested. The grid has made about 7.8U, while the short has lost more than 300U.
Having longs and shorts on the same coin feels less like hedging and more like fighting myself. 😅
Meanwhile, $OKB jumped around 8% from 94 to 105, breaking out with strong volume. Mainstream coins are also moving steadily, but I’m staying out for now.
$TRUST also surged about 14% from 0.05 to 0.063, but with only around 3.92M U in volume, chasing the move at this point feels like taking on unnecessary risk.
I’m still holding the losing position and haven’t chased any of the coins that pumped.
$SPCX already moved 30 points from 116 to 146. The bullish direction became obvious earlier, but I simply didn’t follow it.
The trade is still open. I’m waiting for a suitable pullback to reduce the loss and exit.
At this point, predicting the direction isn’t the priority anymore. What matters is how I manage and close this trade.
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#AIInfraFundingDiverges
#StrategySellsBTCAgain BTC — $63,400, CPI slowdown won't save the situation
BTC was quoted at $63,400, down 0.37% in 24 hours. Last night, the US July CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, in line with expectations (previous value 3.5%), but the data bounced briefly and then stalled. Positive news didn't drive the market through—high oil prices (energy +14.7% year-on-year) suggested that rate hike risks remained, and negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked. Small mining companies and listed companies have already sold 28,000 BTC (about $1.8 billion) this year, with marginal selling pressure persisting. The fear index is 37, still "fear."
50% are grinding at 63k-64.5k; 35% break below 63k and aim for 62k; 15% hold steady at 64.5k and aim for 65k+ $BTC Brothers, $BICO are like stones in a latrine—stinky and hard, and both short and long positions are cut off by the big players.
$BEAT Also jumping up and down, losing me badly. No worries, today we're playing the mainstream — shorting $SNXX.
This coin is completely different from the knockoffs I made earlier. SNXX is a 2x long SNDK daily ETF issued by Tradr, targeting SanDisk stock.
SanDisk is a global memory chip giant, listed on Nasdaq in February 2025, and its stock price surged to a historic high of $2,354 in June this year. SNXX is a leveraged ETF tracking SanDisk's two-fold price increase in a single day—if SanDisk rises 1%, it rises 2%.
But I chose to short it.
First, SanDisk's financial reports have all the positive news. The recently disclosed financial report showed revenue of $8.965 billion, a year-on-year increase of 372%, with profits 135 times that of last year. However, after the report, the stock price instead plummeted, falling from 2354 to 1238, a 47% drawdown. Market expectations have long been overdrawn; when good news materializes, it is negative.
Second, performance is supported by price hikes, not real demand. Two-thirds of revenue growth comes from NAND flash price hikes, and only one-third comes from increased shipments. Terminal demand simply can't withstand high prices.
Third, the memory cycle is cooling down. In Q3, DRAM rose sharply from 74% to 17%, and NAND dropped from 70% to 20%. The price increase dividend is almost over, and stock prices are expected to fall.
The SNXXUSDT perpetual contract only launched on July 14. I opened an average short position at 10.93, marked price at 10.92, with 3x per margin, and small positions testing the waters [see screenshot]. If you're wrong, just admit it; at worst, you can deliver a few more food delivery orders.
Guys, if this order is based on the fundamentals, do you think it will work?
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled Update on the US crypto regulatory series: Congress dodged, and the SEC took the lead
After waiting a year for the "savior" CLARITY (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act)—the House passed it, the committee was released, but when it came time for a full Senate vote...... It was dodged (confirmed postponed on August 6, rescheduled on September 15). On Polymarket, the probability of passing this year dropped from 82% to 21%, which is truly tragic!
Congress is lying flat, and SEC Chairman Atkins decided to take a direct detour. On August 14, he pushed forward the Regulation Crypto proposal, with the core being that the SEC shifted from "chasing and fighting" to "leading the way," telling you how to get rules and exemptions, so you don't have to rely on lawyers to guess.
But don't get too hyped too soon: the 14th is just a decision to "issue it for public consultation," with the official effect expected as early as 2027. So now it seems more like a signal: regulatory certainty is being squeezed out from the administrative branch.
In the short term, the impact on the market is limited, but in the long run: positive for Bitcoin, negative for altcoins! BTC's identity is clear, its framework is being built, so many altcoins will have to keep "guessing whether they count as securities" and "will they be cracked down on"?I’m not really worried about the idea of “paid data” itself. What concerns me more is the information advantage created when a single statement from a major figure can move the market sharply.
Truth Social offering low-latency data to institutions makes business sense—institutions are essentially paying for speed and better execution. But when that information involves potentially market-moving statements from the U.S. president, the situation becomes more complicated. If some traders receive the information seconds earlier while retail traders react afterward, the trading advantage can be significant.
That’s also why I avoid blindly chasing breaking news. In crypto, the biggest losses often don’t come from choosing the wrong direction—they come from believing you’re trading the news when you’re actually becoming someone else’s liquidity.
With $BTC and $ETH increasingly sensitive to politics, macro data, and unexpected events, speed matters. But I’d rather wait for the initial emotional reaction to fade and then see whether price can actually hold the move.
News creates volatility. Price action tells you whether the market truly believes the news.
#HarmonyMintRollback
#TrumpTruthAPILawsuit
#StrategySellsBTCAgain USDT has shrunk by nearly $4 billion in 60 days—market liquidity is really cold!
CryptoQuant data shows USDT's market cap changed by about -3.6 billion USD over 60 days, with a 30-day average reaching -4.88 billion; In the past 11 days, another 870 million USDT has been withdrawn from circulation.
This time, it's not just funds moving between USDT and USDC—USDC's supply also dropped by 1.3% over the past 30 days, and the overall stablecoin scale is shrinking, indicating that some funds are directly withdrawing from the crypto market, redeeming into dollars and flowing into traditional markets.
The continued contraction of stablecoin pools on the market directly means that bottom-fishing ammunition, leveraged collateral, and market liquidity will all continue to weaken, which is not a short-term positive sign.
But looking at historical patterns, such sharp contractions in USDT mostly occur in the latter half of the decline.
A similar scenario occurred at the end of 2022, after which BTC completed the cycle bottom near 16,000.
CryptoQuant's review history also mentions that USDT's most intense shrinkage phase is often closer to selling pressure exhaustion than the initial start of the decline.
In summary: stablecoins continue to shrink, which is unfavorable for the market in the short term; But indirectly, the market has already undergone a long cycle of deleveraging and capital flight.#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
After the CPI came out, my judgment became clearer:
The risk of a rate hike in September has clearly decreased, but BTC has yet to give a real signal of strengthening.
July CPI month-on-month +0.1%, core CPI +0.2%, both relatively moderate.
The market has also lowered the probability of a rate hike in September to about 40%.
However, BTC is still near 63.8K.
So I won't chase just because CPI is good.
My execution:
Hold at 63K—63.3K: Continue to watch with a slightly bullish side.
Regaining 64.3K and then breaking through 65K: I will clearly strengthen my position.
If good CPI + the probability of rate hikes decreases but BTC can't even recover 65K, I would rather be cautious:
The positive news has already been traded early, and real buying has not caught up.
One more thing not to forget:
There is another employment and CPI release ahead of the September meeting.
So this time it's not the "end of rate hikes."
More precisely:
The threshold for interest rate hikes has been raised even further.
$BTC $ETH 🚨 The explosion of AI infrastructure—opportunities aren't just about GPUs!
AI investment is spreading from GPUs to HBM, DRAM, NAND, storage, data centers, networks, power, and cooling.
$AMD Q2 2026 revenue will reach $11.54 billion, with data center revenue up 107% year-on-year; NVIDIA's data center business also maintained strong growth.
$SKHYNIX Benefiting from demand for HBM, DRAM, and NAND, HBM4 has also begun shipping. $SNDK Q4 fiscal year revenue reached $8.97 billion, with storage demand driven by AI growing rapidly.
This illustrates a trend:
The real opportunity for AI is spreading from a single chip to the entire infrastructure industry chain.
And this could also impact the crypto market.
$BTC, $ETH, $SOL are increasingly sensitive to institutional capital, global liquidity, and risk appetite.
If AI capital expenditure remains strong and global liquidity improves, risk assets may receive further support.
But don't focus solely on company performance.
Valuation, ETF flows, Federal Reserve policy, and liquidity are also crucial.
Next, focus on:
🔥 AI CapEx
🔥 ETF capital flow
🔥 Federal Reserve rate cut expectations
🔥 Global mobility
AI is responsible for creating new investment cycles, and liquidity determines where funds ultimately go.
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch I just sat down and glanced at last night's US stock market close: the Dow fell 0.04% to 53,770 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.26% to 7,748 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.54% to 26,588 points. On the surface, everything was calm, but inside, the market was sharply divided.
CPI was implemented, but the market gave no respect
US July CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, core 2.5%, and 0.1% month-on-month—four figures perfectly matching expectations. After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 47% to 45%, but that's about it. Meeting expectations is the biggest problem in itself—the market had already priced in the expectation of cooling inflation two weeks in advance, but when the data actually came out, it turned out to be as expected, and there was no buyer.
AI infrastructure earnings reports exploded collectively—this is the real highlight of tonight
CoreWeave's Q2 revenue was $2.575 billion, a year-on-year surge of 112%, exceeding expectations. Its stock price jumped 19%. Lumentum was even stronger, doubling year-on-year to $1.01 billion in Q4 revenue, with its stock price up over 13%. Coherent's Q4 revenue was $2.05 billion, up 34% year-on-year, but it actually fell in after-hours trading. Performance exceeded expectations and even dropped; market expectations have already been pushed to the ceiling by AI—it's normal to exceed expectations, but even the slightest disappointment is a capital offense.
SPCX rose another 9%, and Musk said internally that AI revenue would surpass all other revenues in September, and that in five years, AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value. This is a big picture—the market is really buying it.
The seven tech giants continued to be slashed. Meta fell over 3%, Microsoft over 2%, Amazon Tesla dropped over 1%, and Apple and Google edged down. Nvidia, however, rose 3%.
Memory chips surged across the board. SK Hynix rose over 9%, Seagate gained over 7%, SanDisk rose over 5%, and Micron rose nearly 5%.
Chinese concept stocks are in dire strait. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.37%, WeRideStock dropped over 9%, and BOSS Zhipin dropped nearly 4%.
For BTC, CPI has landed but no direction is given. BTC is still hovering around 64,000; BTC didn't follow US stocks rising, and BTC didn't follow US stocks as they fall. AI infrastructure surges, tech giants get slashed, Chinese concept stocks plunge—each going their own way in the same market, showing funds are readjusting, not fleeing.
Tonight there's also PPI data, with market expectations of 0.3% month-on-month and an annual rate of around 5.5%. If PPI exceeds expectations, inflation worries will return. I'm not heavily positioned; I'll wait for PPI to be realized. Acting now is just gambling; there's no need.
$SPCX $QQQ $SKHY 在夜深人静、烟雾缭绕的键盘前，看盘多年的人总会有一种直觉：市场从不相信永动机，但资本永远在疯狂寻找下一个物理瓶颈。今天看到 Lumentum 刚拉出来的这份成绩单——FY2026 Q4 营收直接飙升至 10.1 亿美元，同比暴增 109%，调整后 EPS 飙到了 3.23 美元，连带下一季度的业绩指引都敢直接指向上限 12.75 亿美元。老实说，这不仅仅是一份亮眼的数据，更是一记沉重响亮的警钟。 当所有人还在把目光死死盯在 GPU 显存和晶圆代工上的时候，真正经历过牛熊洗礼的老手早已看明白：AI 算力集群规模每翻一倍，计算的肿瘤就会向高速光互连（optical interconnects）扩散一分。光模块与激光器，早已从曾经的配套角色，变成了当今庞大 AI 算力帝国里最昂贵、最不可或缺的通道收费站。 但问题在于，这究竟是一场可持续数年的产业长牛，还是一场因短期集中采购而引发的产能幻觉？管理层口中“AI与云数据中心的强劲需求”，固然吹响了冲锋号，但半导体产业几十年来血淋淋的周期教训告诉我们，伴随着疯狂扩产而来的，往往也是随之而来的周期性剧烈震荡。资本是极其残酷的，今天能把你捧上神坛，明天$SPCX A strong comeback near $150? Rocket launch? Don't be blinded by your eyes and get too excited too soon!
Here is an analysis of the Rockets' market situation and insights:
Due to the low expectations for CPI data release and the temporary hype of negative news being realized after unlocking, the short-term upward momentum sentiment has been increased and restored. However, it seems that retail investors and those chasing the gains have forgotten that the overall market in July was in a slump, slump and slump. Although the data release boosted tokens in the AI and tech sectors, SPCX still faces risks of short-term pullbacks and high-level sell-offs. The signals of bullish and negative factors are very clear; short-term corrections are essential. After the phased hype and data turmoil, the rocket will have to fall back to the bottom.
Therefore, I personally support the Air Force and will monitor the Rockets' market movements during the day. If you lack experience or knowledge of US stock sector tokens, you can exchange ideas and learn from him.
$ETH $BTC Money is shifting internally: ETF outflows ≠ end of bull market, but a reshuffle before rotation
On the surface, BTC is consolidating around 63800, ETH oscillates around 1895 for a day, SOL shows small fluctuations, and the market is lifeless.
In essence: old hotspots cool down, new narratives accumulate, funds are switching between highs and lows, not exiting.
Supporting signals:
BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of about $144.6 million on 8/10, breaking the consecutive inflows, but on 8/12 IBIT saw a return inflow of $50.2 million, indicating institutional portfolio adjustment rather than a collapse retreat;
On-chain whale transfer-to-exchange ratio rebounded, indicating swing reduction rather than bottom liquidation;
The stalemate at the Hormuz Strait (Iran blocking passage, 8/18 negotiation window countdown) supports safe-haven demand, but gold itself is stagnating, not yet reaching global resonance speculation.
Conclusion: liquidity tightening + internal rotation coexist, before direction is chosen, it’s all noise.
------
BTC trend framework (weekly → daily → operation)
Weekly: weak rebound after second test, bear tail still needs one more shakeout
Pattern: natural rebound after panic sell-off, low volume, weak supply and demand — typical mid-bottom formation feature, not a reversal.
Judgment: the bear market end still lacks the final forced shakeout step, target directly smashing below 57k (coinciding with 0.618 Fibonacci 57825 and previous cycle support).
Weekly action: short on rallies, do not bottom-fish.
Daily: liquidity not fully taken, two paths await confirmation
Ideal path: rebound to 67200 to sweep stop losses/take liquidity → weekly resonance short setup.
Right-side path: directly break below 62500 → chase shorts, no bottom guessing.
Reflection and adjustment: the weak rebound after second test should not consume chips to "must take liquidity," avoid short-term uncertain moves; after BTC long position profit-taking, no more short-term mainstream coin trades within the week.
3. Current anchor point (8/13)
Current price ~63800, between 62500 support and 67200 liquidity overhead;
ETF outflows + whale transfers = rebound lacks sustained buying, weak sideways likely to break down;
Trigger right side: hourly/daily close below 62500 to short; or rebound to 67200 with stagnation to short structurally.
------
Gold XAUUSD framework
Weekly
Follow-up rebound after panic sell-off, with a second bottom test to come → short on rallies.
Daily
Currently 4360–4400 stagnation, 4400 is psychological + 100-day SMA resistance, touched 4435 on 8/11 then pulled back;
Key support 4360: break leads to 4200; if 4200 holds → buy on dips logic valid;
If retest 4360 sideways then rally → follow weekly short path.
Drivers: Hormuz Strait unopened + Iran tough stance = safe-haven support, but CPI cooling + negative nonfarm payrolls shake rate hike expectations, lacking the "global resonance speculation" leg.
------
Position discipline in rotation market
Altcoins only focus on leaders + those with clear logic; blacklist concept pumpers.
Leave room in positions, don’t bet all on a single hotspot; rotation is zero-sum, first mover eats the latecomer.
Avoid contracts: rotation market is sharp, leverage sweeps principal twice to the bottom.
More important than "guessing the next leader" is managing principal; direction can be watched slowly, position size is the survival line.
------
Summary in one sentence
BTC weekly waits for shakeout below 57k to short on rallies, daily waits for either break below 62.5k or rebound to 67.2k for confirmation; gold waits for 4360/4200 two-level support to define; macro money is shifting internally, rotation market is not about guts but clean position sizing.
The above is technical analysis, not investment advice; contracts should strictly control position size and stop loss. $BTC $ETH Anthropic’s $3T Valuation: AI Breakthrough or VC Exit Strategy?
Anthropic’s potential IPO valuation is reportedly becoming enormous, with expectations of $2T+ and possibly up to $3T later this year.
That’s a massive jump from its roughly $965B valuation during its previous funding round. In just a few months, the company’s valuation could potentially multiply several times.
Some see this as proof of the AI boom. But another interpretation is that VCs may be trying to exit while AI valuations and market liquidity remain extremely high.
The valuation logic is straightforward: if Anthropic reaches $100–120B in annualized revenue, a 30× price-to-sales multiple would imply around $3T.
The problem is whether a model company deserves the same premium as a company like NVIDIA. NVIDIA benefits from strong hardware demand, high margins and a powerful competitive position, while AI model providers face huge computing costs, open-source competition and rapidly falling API prices.
So why rush toward an IPO?
Because the exit window may be narrowing. Training costs for next-generation models keep rising, while performance improvements are becoming harder to achieve. VCs may want to sell into strong public-market liquidity before AI enthusiasm cools.
This could also be a warning for crypto AI and DePIN projects. If even major Web2 AI companies are trying to monetize sky-high valuations through public markets, AI-related Web3 projects could face serious valuation and liquidity pressure once the market starts demanding real cash flow instead of narratives.
For retail investors, blindly chasing AI stocks or AI tokens at these valuations could mean becoming the final buyers in the VC exit cycle.
The big question is: if Anthropic actually goes public above $2T, will that valuation survive through explosive AI adoption—or could it face a major correction once the hype fades?
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#AIInfraEarningsWatch
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound 🚨 X Synchronized Update | OCC Ushers in the Era of Crypto Banking: Crypto is Entering the U.S. Financial System
🇺🇸 The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) is further opening the door for eligible digital asset companies to enter the U.S. national banking system.
First, to correct a commonly misunderstood statement:
This is not about "the U.S. approving all crypto companies to become national banks," but rather that regulation is establishing a clearer path—eligible digital asset companies can apply for national bank or national trust bank licenses and conduct corresponding operations after meeting regulatory requirements.
What truly deserves attention is not the "additional bank licenses," but a deeper change:
Crypto is gradually moving from outside the traditional banking system into the financial system.
The past path is:
Traditional finance → Crypto
Banks, funds, ETFs, and asset management institutions are entering crypto.
Now, another path begins to appear:
Crypto → Bank
Digital asset custodians, stablecoin companies, and crypto financial enterprises have begun to enter the banking system.
Why is this important?
Because what Crypto lacked in the past was not just assets, but complete financial infrastructure:
Custody, payment, settlement, lending, asset management, fiat entry, and institutional services.
And the banking system happens to provide these capabilities.
This means Bitcoin's role may also change.
Past:
Bitcoin = Digital Gold
In the future, it may further become:
Stored-value assets + collateral + yield assets + payment assets + core financial infrastructure assets
Bitcoin ETFs address:
"How does traditional finance hold BTC?"
BTCFi addresses:
"What else can BTC do besides holding?"
Bitcoin Banking may address the following issues:
"How can ordinary people use BTC like they use a bank account?"
This is also why projects like Bitcoin Neobank, BTCFi, and SatPay are starting to attract attention.
If regulatory trends continue, the core of future competition in the crypto industry may no longer be just TVL, trading volume, and token market capitalization, but will gradually shift:
Bank licenses, custody capabilities, payment capabilities, stablecoin capabilities, institutional clients, and financial infrastructure.
So, OCC may be opening more than just a door for a "crypto bank."
Instead, it is a new industrial pathway:
Bitcoin → BTCFi → Banking → Payment → Everyday Finance
Crypto has tried to build its own financial system in the past.
In the future, what is more likely to happen is:
Crypto is gradually becoming part of the traditional financial system.
And this may be the next stage of Bitcoin's financialization truly worth paying attention to.
$BTC $COREGOLD IS BACK ABOVE $4,400 — THIS IS NOT JUST A PUMP
There is one thing I think the market is underestimating:
Gold is returning to the $4,400/oz area while the biggest drivers of the bullish cycle have not gone away.
On August 12, Gold Spot rose to about $4,406/oz, the highest level in more than 2 months. The direct driver came from the US CPI in July only increased by 0.1% compared to the previous month, causing the market to reduce expectations that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. (Reuters)
On August 13, gold corrected to around $4,374, but since the beginning of the month alone, the price has increased by more than 8%. (Reuters)
In my opinion, to understand GOLD at this time, you have to look at 3 major cash flows.
1. INTEREST RATE – USD – REAL YIELD
Gold does not generate yields.
So when the market expects higher interest rates → USD and more attractive bond yields → GOLD is often under pressure.
Conversely, as long as the market starts pricing in the direction of the Fed being less hawkish, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases.
This is exactly what is happening after the CPI.
But this is only a short-term catalyst.
But I don't think gold will go straight up.
In early 2026, GOLD exceeded $5,500, then fell below $4,000 at the end of June. (World Gold Council)
Such an amplitude says one thing:
A bull market does not mean no correction.
If the US economy is strong again + inflation heats up + FED hawkish + Treasury yield rises + USD strengthens, gold can be sold strongly.
Conversely, if growth weakens, interest rate expectations fall, geopolitical tensions continue and Central Banks still buy...
$4,400 may not be the top — it's just the GOLD zone trying to reclaim before a new bullish leg.
The World Gold Council has assessed that strong enough catalysts can bring gold back to $4,500+ in H2/2026. (World Gold Council)
If GOLD breakouts are confirmed by these areas with cash flows, the next narrative will not only lie in physical gold.
It can spread to:
$XAU → $XAUT → Tokenized Gold → RWA
And as traditional haven assets begin to be brought on-chain, the line between TradFi and Crypto will become increasingly blurred.
Don't just look at the price of gold. Look at where the big money is going.
#GOLD #XAU #XAUT #BTC #RWA #FED #CPI #CryptoSudden uncertainties in Hormuz negotiations: BTC consolidates sideways, ETH weakly fluctuates, awaiting direction selection
The US-Iran rivalry has escalated again, with the Hormuz navigation agreement, which was close to being finalized, officially put on pause. Iran has made it clear that as long as the US continues its military threats and fails to meet the conditions for unlocking assets and compensation, the Strait navigation agreement with Oman will be postponed indefinitely; Meanwhile, Trump's side has promised 'results within 48 hours' while countering compensation claims, while the US fleet remains deployed in the strait, and both sides have returned from 'close consensus' to a stalemate.
As a result, international oil prices stopped falling and rebounded, and the interest rate cut trading logic that had been ignited by the unexpectedly falling in July CPI was once again overshadowed. Transmitting this to the crypto market, the two leading coins simultaneously entered narrow consolidation:
• $BTC After the positive news materialized, it did not break through the 64,000 resistance level. It is currently oscillating between 63,300 and 63,600, with the 1-minute Bollinger Bands continuing to narrow. 63,000 serves as the short-term core support, and both bulls and bears are watching for geopolitical signals to materialize.
• $ETH Weaker than BTC, currently quoted around $1880, 24-hour range narrowing to the 1873-1925 range, 1850-1870 as a short-term strong support zone, and 1920-1950 forming dense resistance. As a mainstream asset with stronger risk attributes, ETH's correlation with BTC remains at a high level of 0.9. During periods of rising geopolitical uncertainty, risk aversion will first suppress ETH's elasticity, and the decline is usually greater than BTC's; Conversely, if the situation eases, the rebound will be more explosive.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
The core logic remains unchanged: As long as there is no substantial upgrade in the short term, the market will continue to absorb profit-taking positions through volatility, with funds further concentrating on BTC's top positions, and ETH and altcoins will continue to face pressure; If an unexpected conflict occurs within the 48-hour window, a rebound in oil prices will reignite inflation concerns, causing overall market risk appetite to decline simultaneously; Conversely, if the protocol unexpectedly implements and the negative news is exhausted, the market will return to the main trend of rate-cutting trading, and ETH is likely to be the first to start a rebound and recovery.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to wait and see for now. For BTC, focus on a breakout between 63,000 and 64,000 levels; for ETH, focus on the 1850 support and 1920 resistance. For high-leverage positions, prepare risk control in advance and wait for the range to break before following the trend.$OKB Major News $OKB AI Ecosystem Data, Traffic King OKB AI (X Layer AI Agent Ecosystem) On-Chain Daily Report [August 13], Underlying Logic of Price Increases 1. X Layer Total Network TVL: $117.9 Million, 7-Day Quarter-on-Week +9.1%
2. Total unique addresses across the network: 4.2 million+, with total on-chain transactions exceeding 400 million
3. Stablecoin Reserve: $2.08 billion, with Circle's native USDC continuously providing US dollar liquidity to the ecosystem
4. OKB Fundamentals: Total permanently locked at 21 million tokens, no additional issuance; All on-chain interactions consume OKB as gas; the more interactions, the more deflation it sustains.
2. Data on the OKB AI Agent dedicated chain
1. AI Agent Contract Deployment
Currently, the total number of AI Agent contracts deployed on X Layer chains is steadily increasing; At present, the focus is on developer testing bots and interactive agents, while large-scale, commercial, high-frequency calls are still in a gradual implementation phase.
2. Gas consumption characteristics of the AI track
AI bots are high-frequency, small-value interactions, with a single address generating hundreds to tens of thousands of on-chain operations daily; Similar to the 4.96 million interaction addresses you just checked, this is a typical AI script wallet.
In the short term, the overall gas consumption of the AI sector is lower than that of the xStocks US stock token track; Large-scale AI returns have exploded, relying on a large number of ordinary users accessing the AI marketplace for sustained interaction.
3. Ecosystem mechanism: OKB closed-loop consumption
Developers deploying AI intelligent agents, AI human-machine dialogue settlement, and AI strategy execution all require payment of OKB Gas; In the future, after the AI service payment model is implemented, there will be a new demand for direct purchase of OKB.
3. Comparison of Capital Structures in the Three Major Tracks (Current)
🥇 Number one: xStocks US token RWA, accounting for 81% of on-chain DEX trading volume and currently the core source of OKB's consumption
🥈 Second place: DeFi exchanges and liquidity pools
🥉 Third place: OKB AI Agent Ecosystem (in early growth stage)
4. Key signals to monitor the AI ecosystem going forward
1. AI Marketplace officially opened on a large scale, adding a large number of ordinary user interaction addresses
2. The proportion of daily on-chain transactions in the AI sector continues to rise, with gas consumption steadily rising
3. Launched AI intelligent agent staking OKB feature, forming long-term chip lock-in. #Chip stocks lead the rally, Korean stocks rebounded over 22% in ten days, #7月CPI平稳落地 rate hike expectations in September cooled Yesterday it was $LITE, and today it’s $COHR. Since Maitong’s editor is off work, I’ll get the update out first. 😄
$COHR’s earnings were just as impressive:
1. Strong earnings beat: Revenue came in at 20.46 vs. 19.81 expected, with solid growth in data center and communications. Non-GAAP gross margin jumped to 40.2%, while EPS reached 2.41 vs. 2.19 expected.
2. Guidance also beat: Q1 revenue is expected at 22–24 vs. 21.5 forecast, with EPS guidance of 1.85–2.05 vs. 1.79 expected.
In simple terms, FY2026 Q4 is already strong, but FY2027 could be even more impressive as growth accelerates.
Both $LITE and $COHR are delivering strong signals from both fundamentals and technicals.
So the bigger question is: Could optical stocks become the next major hardware theme after memory/storage?
I think that possibility is becoming increasingly obvious.
Personally, I also feel that the US market is still much more enthusiastic about hardware-related speculation than software. Software currently feels like it’s stuck waiting for the next narrative and new buyers. Once that demand fades, the sector could lose its appeal quickly.
Just my personal view.
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#AnthropicIPOValuation At a SpaceX all-hands meeting, Musk put out a big satellite: next month, AI revenue will surpass all other businesses combined, and by the end of next year, it will reach 10 gigawatts of computing power, earning $300 to $500 billion annually. In five years, AI will account for 99% of the company's value—this is the plan to turn Rocket Company into an AI giant.
The current approach is called "ground training, space reasoning": training stays on Earth, reasoning moves into space. Starship is responsible for delivering computing hardware, Starlink handles the communication base, forming a comprehensive approach.
On paper, the AI business is indeed strong—AI revenue in Q2 was $2.6 billion, up 213% quarter-on-quarter. But the company posted a net loss of $4.8 billion in the first half, and just the computing power investment in AI has eaten up all its cash flow.
For $BTC: Musk's dream this time is bigger than the "Tesla robot"—if the AI + space story succeeds, $SPCX will become the top liquidity pump in the US stock market, drawing in tech capital. The bigger problem is that if he really relies on AI to push valuations to "astronomical figures," the entire market's risk appetite will be redefined, and BTC's "tech asset" attributes will be shaken. Let's take a look first.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $ETH — Why Can’t Ethereum Hold Above $1,900?
On August 13, $ETH stayed mostly between $1,875–$1,895, barely moving over 24 hours. After briefly touching $1,934, it quickly pulled back and failed to reclaim $1,900 for the third time.
Although cooler CPI data and reduced September rate-hike expectations should have supported ETH, the bullish momentum simply isn’t strong enough. The US spot ETH ETF attracted only around $7.4M in net inflows on August 12, far below previous levels. Without stronger ETF demand, it’s difficult to absorb the heavy supply around $1,900+.
Technically, ETH remains stuck in a consolidation range, with Bollinger Bands around $1,839–$1,946 and weak ADX showing limited momentum.
Key levels:
Above $1,900 with strong volume: Potential move toward $1,920–$1,930
Below $1,870–$1,880: Next targets around $1,850, then $1,820
Between these levels: Likely just sideways chop and short-term position shakeouts.
In simple terms, ETH isn’t necessarily showing strong selling pressure—it’s simply lacking enough buying power to break higher.
Not financial advice. $ETH
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#AIInfraEarningsWatch Bridge exploits keep proving that the wrapped token is only as safe as the accounting behind it. 🌉🚨
Tx says an attacker used fake XRPL deposits to withdraw real XRP from its reserves, while other bridged assets remain fully backed.
The key failure appears to be deposit verification, not XRP itself. Before trust returns, I’d want proof of reserves, the exact amount drained and an explanation of how false deposits passed validation. Other assets are backed is useful but independently verifiable backing is better.
$XRP $NOT $CATI #CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI