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Don't just focus on candlesticks! These three things will blow up the market next
Guys, if you only know how to trade cryptocurrencies now by looking at charts and counting waves, you're really falling behind the current meta. How the big market moves next doesn't depend on technical indicators, but depends on the attitudes of these three "big players": CPI (price index), SEC (regulatory), and Hormuz (oil).
Let's break them down one by one and say:
· CPI (Inflation Data): At least the July CPI gave some face, and the market is once again fantasizing that the Fed is about to ease liquidity. But how long this breathing can last is uncertain.
· SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission): The people in Washington are still arguing, and that so-called CLARITY regulatory bill is reportedly going to be delayed until September. The SEC is still watching us, ready to stir up trouble at any moment.
· Hormuz (Strait): Any slight disturbance here causes oil prices to skyrocket. When oil prices rise, inflation becomes uncontrollable, making it difficult for the Fed to cut rates. This is not good news for the crypto world.
So now, when watching the market, I first look at the macro situation, then where the money flows, and finally the candlestick movements.
As for the corresponding coin, I understand it like this:
· $BTC: It depends on whether institutional investors enter the market; liquidity is the final decision.
· $ETH: Depends on the rotation of market fortunes and whether Ethereum itself is strong.
· $SOL: It's like an emotional amplifier—when the market is good, it soars; when it's bad, it drops hard.
· $HYPE: Monitor the activity of on-chain contract trading.
· $OKB: It depends on how the OKX ecosystem and the X layer perform.
In summary: CPI determines what the Fed thinks, the SEC sets the rules, and Hormuz determines how oil prices move. The next major market will likely not trigger on the crypto market, but in Washington, the Fed, or the oil pipelines of the Middle East.
Don't just bury your head in the line; look up more at the road 👀
#CPI降温能喘口气
#SEC扯皮还没完
#霍尔木兹一响油价涨
$BTC
#DailyOrbit
Guys, which factor do you think is the most critical coming up? Let's split the comments section!This is quite a positive signal for crypto, but not enough...
🔥 July PPI: Good news for risky assets
July PPI increased by only 0% MoM, lower than expectations of +0.2%. Core PPI increased by 0.2%, also lower than the forecast of +0.3%.
What matters is not only the 0% number, but that the trend of price pressure is not accelerating.
From March to July:
📈 Month 3: +0.5%
📈 April: +1.4%
📈 May: +1.1%
📉 June: -0.3%
➡️ Month 7: 0%
Simply put: producer prices have recovered from negative territory but have not returned to the hot state.
🏦 The Fed has more reasons to "stand still"
This is the part of the crypto market that is interested.
The lower-than-expected PPI means that inflationary pressures from the manufacturing side are not strong enough to force the Fed to tighten further.
If the subsequent CPI, PCE, and jobs data continue to cool, the market will have more grounds to bet on a softer monetary policy.
With crypto, this is often a favorable environment because:
Inflation ↓ → interest rate hike pressures ↓ yield → ↓ → risk appetite ↑ → money flows could return to BTC/ETH and then spread to Altcoins.
⚠️ But don't FOMO right away
There is one point that must be looked very sober:
The PPI in July is no longer negative, but has returned to 0%.
That means that price pressures have stopped decreasing at the pace of June. Therefore, it cannot be said that inflation has been completely controlled.
The next market will look at:
CPI → PCE → Nonfarm Payrolls → unemployment → the Fed's speech.
If these data continue to confirm the cooling trend, the bullish narrative for crypto will strengthen significantly.
"Has the low PPI changed monetary policy expectations, and has the cash flow really responded?"
This is the difference between chasing the price and staying ahead of the cash flow.
So, with BTC/ETH/Altcoin at the moment, the PPI signal is bullish in macro terms, but the confirmation point still has to come from the reaction of bond yields, USD, BTC and cash flows.
Bottom Line: July's PPI is tilting in favor of crypto. If the CPI/PCE and employment data continue to soften, the market could start to better price in a favorable monetary cycle. But if inflation turns upward, this whole expectation could reverse very quickly.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
🚨 In just one month, market expectations for the Federal Reserve have completely changed the script.
Looking back a month ago, the entire market was anxious:
Will there be another rate hike in September?
But now, the tide has quietly reversed.
📉 Currently, the probability of holding rates steady and unchanged in September has climbed to around 64%.
July's CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, core CPI was 2.5%, and with employment data continuing to weaken, the Fed's confidence to continue raising rates is rapidly fading.
Many people don't understand the key point:
The market has never been speculating about whether interest rates are cut now, but rather that future market liquidity cannot be relaxed.
Once rate hike expectations continue to cool, a chain reaction will unfold one after another:
The US dollar weakened
⬇️
US Treasury yields declined
⬇️
Market risk appetite is rising
⬇️
Capital is flowing back into risk assets such as BTC, US growth stocks, and gold
Let's focus on BTC.
Bitcoin itself is not afraid of high interest rates; what truly harms the market is the market's repeated pricing of "higher rates, longer duration."
Now, the logic of suppressing the crypto world is gradually loosening.
So from now on, there's no need to focus on Fed officials' verbal statements.
Three key signals to watch: the dollar movement, US Treasury yields, and net BTC inflows.
If all three move forward together,
It's not just about "no rate hike in September."
This indicates the market is already positioning ahead of time, betting on a new round of easing conditions.
$BTC $OKB $ETH
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? This is a clear capital-rotation signal rather than a broad altseason signal.
BTC: −$61.1M → near-term institutional demand looks softer.
ETH: +$7.4M → relative strength is improving.
SOL: +~$9M → stronger inflow momentum, but one day isn't enough to confirm a trend.
BTC $64.5K: important level to watch for whether weakness develops into a deeper pullback.
ETH ETF flows: if inflows continue for several sessions, that would provide stronger evidence of rotation toward ETH.
🎯 Bottom line
BTC weakness + ETH/SOL inflows = selective rotation, not yet a full altseason.
The stronger confirmation would be BTC stabilizing while ETH and SOL continue attracting capital. If BTC loses $64.5K and altcoin inflows simultaneously fade, the rotation thesis becomes much weaker.The trending list has already written that CPI and PPI are cooling simultaneously. I watch Zhong: the US July PPI won't be released until 8:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight. Before the dishes arrived, the next table finished commenting on the "light" option.
Announced CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year. This can ease the tension over rate hikes, but it's not a good stamp for OKB. The path should be detoured: interest rate expectations, risk appetite, and finally trading activity.
I will monitor whether both OKX spot trading volume and contract positions are amplified simultaneously. If prices only rise without real turnover, the story is still missing a leg.
Stacking levers is like stacking plastic stools one by one—the higher you sit, the less you dare to cough. Tonight's PPI is out, let's see if this table of food is served wrong.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be aware of the risks #$OKB This is a good scenario-based setup. One important correction: PPI itself doesn't directly determine whether the Fed hikes; it influences inflation expectations and the broader data picture the Fed considers.
For the trading message, the strongest point is your final one: watch the market reaction, not just the headline number. A soft PPI can still produce a sell-the-news move if yields or DXY rise, while a hot PPI can sometimes be absorbed if positioning is already heavily bearish.
Bottom line: PPI below expectations = potentially bullish for ETH; above expectations = potentially bearish; around expectations = likely more dependent on the details and market positioning.AI浪潮正在同时冲击芯片、光通信、软件服务和财政账户。今日美股盘前，三股力量正在交织出新的市场主线。 思科的“大象转身”：AI订单已不是“期权”，是40亿美元的账面现实 思科第四财季营收173亿美元，超市场预期的168.5亿美元。来自超大规模云服务商的AI订单达40亿美元——这不是“预计未来会有”的叙事，而是已经写进财报的确认收入。 如果加上其3月份宣布的10亿美元AI订单，传统网络设备商正在以超出市场预期的速度吃掉AI基础设施建设的增量蛋糕。 Coherent全超预期：光通信是AI的“卖铲人” 光通信巨头Coherent Q4营收20.5亿美元，同比增长34%，Non-GAAP EPS 1.74美元，双双高于指引上限。下一财季营收预期22.0-24.0亿美元，同样超预期。 AI大模型的训练和推理需要海量数据传输——光模块是算力集群的“血管”。Coherent的超预期验证了一件事：AI基础设施的资本开支正在转化为实实在在的硬件收入。 Anthropic若2万亿估值IPO，将重新定义“AI公司”的定价天花板 多位投资方称，Anthropic预计10月IPO，估值或达2万亿美元。若成真，这OKB quietly took over the +7.12% trend, leading the rally on OKX, but the feeling was off: platform coins rallying alone, usually when funds have nowhere to go and they group up, not when the market is coming.
$BTC rebounded from -1.17% to -0.47%. It looks like a stabilization, but the volume only covered up to -3.5% (basically flat). This rebound is short covering, not genuine buying entry.
Breadth 7 rose 8 times down but still fell more, OI barely moved at 110,900, and leveraged funds didn't follow at all. Platform coins moved alone + market volume at parity and didn't follow—this is 'supportive rotation'—money is entertaining itself within the sector.
A reminder to counterfeit players: No incremental growth, rotation will only get faster and thinner. Today it's OKB, tomorrow it might be something else. Chasing in is just catching the last baton.
Here's a framework: The real market switch is at the $BTC volume level at 65,000. So all previous movements should be treated as stock market speculation. Is this OKB a prelude to a breakout or platform coins supporting the market? I'm the one with reasons.
Crypto assets carry high risk. The above is purely personal nonsense and does not constitute investment advice.
#OKX星球 $BTC $OKB #平台币异动 #护盘轮动BTC Community Temperature Update: 0.87x is just attention, not buying
OKX Onchain OS recorded 54 mentions of BTC in one hour at 17:00 on August 13, including 42 times on X and 12 times in the news.
Compared to the 24-hour hourly average, this round's speed is 0.87 times, indicating a "slowdown"; The tone is 35% bullish and 11% bearish. There's no need to force the same conclusion between the two lines: how many people are talking about the buzz response, and which side the tone answers lean toward the text—neither can directly replace transactions or cash flow.
If the next round continues with speed, news sources, and actual market transactions, confidence in judgment will be further boosted; If it quickly returns to the mean, this change will resemble short-window noise.Many people think Temasek's investment in Samsung and SK Hynix is a big cash cow, because they once took over FTX at a high point. So I reviewed Temasek's investment records from the past decade: Failures include (primary market): FTX: In 2021 and 2022, invested in FTX in two rounds, totaling $275 million. In November 2022, FTX went bankrupt and lost everything. eFishery: Total investment of 290 million yuan in 2022 and 2023, liquidation in 2024–2025 due to financial fraud, resulting in a 90% loss. Tessa Therapeutics: $256 million in 2017 and 2022, liquidated in 2023, all losses. Similar cases include Pear Therapeutics, Locanabio, Zilingo, and others, all of which are early-stage investments in the primary market, with losses ranging from millions to tens of millions of dollars. Successful cases include: Adyen: invested $50 million in 2014, then increased his position with several times the return. Schneider Electric India: Bought 35% equity for 530 million euros in 2020, sold all for 5.5 billion euros in 2025, a tenfold profit. STT GDC: Invested in 2020, amount undisclosed, sold 82% equity in February 2026 for SGD 6.6 billion. Successful exit from the primary market. BlackRock: In 2020, it bought 3.5 billion USD to acquire 3.9% of shares, holding long-term, currently valued at about 5 billion USDRecently, something in the crypto world seems quite contradictory. On one side: the CLARITY Act has been postponed again. The market had hoped for August, but the Senate failed to complete it before the recess, and the key procedure vote was postponed to September 15. Moreover, there will be issues ahead: the 60-vote threshold, partisan rivalry, bank interests, and conflicts over Trump's crypto assets. The normal understanding should be: major bad news. But if you look at what U.S. regulators have been doing lately, you'll notice something particularly strange: Congress is grinding, but the SEC and the Federal Reserve haven't stopped at all. This makes me increasingly suspicious: the U.S. may no longer be willing to wait until a "unified crypto act" is passed before starting to build a crypto financial system. Instead, they are doing something more practical: the bill will slowly be argued, and the financial system will move on-chain first. These two things are completely different in nature. Let's look at the SEC first—its actions are no longer just "friendly." Previously, when the SEC discussed cryptocurrencies, what was the market's first reaction most of the time? Who are they going to arrest now? Now it's completely reversed. In March this year, the SEC officially issued a framework for classifying crypto assets, clearly stating: most crypto assets themselves are not securities. At the same time, it begins to clarify: what is a digital commodity? What is a stablecoin? What are digital securities? How to handle staking. How to handle airdrops. Even a token originally tied to an investment contract can be separated from security attributes under certain circumstances. It's no longer just "I'm not going to hit you anymore." Instead:说实话，这四个币现在都处于"跌到没人看"的状态，但恰恰是这种时候，才值得拿放大镜瞅一瞅。 $XCH ：最被低估的"僵尸币" 从1934刀跌到1块多，跌了99.9%，基本没人聊了。但Chia背后是正规军打法——美股上市路线、企业级合规、绿色挖矿叙事。下一轮如果机构资金回来找"安全牌"，XCH这种有实体公司背书的项目反而可能被重新定价。前提是它得先活到那一天。 $CFX ：中国概念的独苗 这个币的逻辑一直很独特——唯一合规的公链，中国电信合作、离岸人民币稳定币试点。8月Conflux 3.0上线，号称1.5万TPS。它的爆发不靠技术，靠的是"政策风口"四个字。一旦香港/跨境数字人民币有实质进展，CFX可能一夜之间被炒翻天。 $CORE ：伤得最重，野心最大 从6.47跌到0.016，跌幅99.5%，惨不忍睹。但它现在是真在做事——SatPay比特币借记卡、lstBTC流动性质押、手续费回购销毁，从通胀模型硬切换成收入驱动。这种转型如果跑通，反弹空间是最大的，因为预期已经跌到地板了。 $BICO：妖币属性拉满 一周暴涨300%，从0.011弹到0.06，典型的超跌投机品种。基本面不算差——账通胀回落的故事，刚刚又多了一组支持数据。 美国7月PPI数据公布：月率0%，低于预期的0.20%，前值由-0.30%修正为-0.1%；年率4.7%，为3月以来新低，低于预期的4.9%，前值5.50%。 7月PPI数据全面不及预期，为通胀回落提供最新佐证： 月率：录得 0%，低于预期的 +0.20%，前值由 -0.3% 下修至 -0.1% 年率：降至 4.7%，创 3 月以来新低，低于预期的 4.9%，前值为 5.50% PPI是生产者价格指数，通常被视为CPI的“领先指标”——当生产端成本下降，最终会传导至消费端。昨日CPI数据已经温和回落，今日PPI全面低于预期进一步确认了通胀降温的趋势。 年率4.7%创3月以来新低，且降幅大于市场预期。生产者价格的压力正在以比市场预期更快的速度缓解。 对9月加息概率的影响 PPI数据公布后，9月加息概率预期可能进一步从40%附近向下修正。 此前的数据链条已经显示通胀正在降温：6月CPI环比下降0.4%，7月CPI同比回落至3.4%，核心CPI降至2.5%。PPI的全面低于预期，为这条“通胀回落链”提供了新的验证环节。 如果下周的零售销售数据和后续PAn easily overlooked price ratio signal: What does the ETH/BTC price ratio sideways movement mean? When will my Micron investment break even?
I entered hoping to profit, now I just want to break even 🫣
The long-term narrow sideways $ETH / $BTC price ratio is the market's "sentiment balancer."
The continuous oscillation of the price ratio indicates that market funds have not formed a unified direction: some funds hold BTC, valuing its macro hedging properties; others invest in ETH, betting on valuation increases driven by ecosystem upgrades.
Historical market patterns: after a long period of sideways movement, a trend breakout is highly likely.
If the US tech sector continues to recover, risk appetite rises, and the price ratio breaks upward, ETH will continue to outperform BTC;
If risk aversion intensifies, funds cluster into defensive assets, the price ratio falls, and BTC is relatively more resilient.
The best current strategy is not to bet on a direction prematurely. Continuously track the price ratio range changes and participate with the trend after the direction breaks. Frequently switching between coins during oscillations easily leads to repeated stop-losses and constant capital erosion. I think today's data cannot be simply summarized as "positive for BTC" or "negative for BTC." What is truly worth watching is the logic behind the data. US July PPI release: 📌 PPI month-on-month: 0.0% PPI 📌 year-on-year: 4.7% Core 📌 PPI month-on-month: +0.2% Core 📌 PPI year-on-year: 4.2% Initial jobless claims also released: 📌 actual: 209,000 📌 Forecast: about 202,000 Simply put: inflation has not continued to rise significantly, and employment has also cooled slightly. On the surface, this seems to be more favorable to market risk appetite. As inflationary pressures ease→ the need for the Fed to continue tightening decreases; Employment cooled slightly→ and the market has more room to imagine a future policy shift toward easing. So the first reaction is: PPI + initial request, this combination is somewhat favorable for BTC. But don't get too excited here. ⚠️ ⸻ There is a very important detail about the PPI: don't just look at the 0.0% figure. Core indicators excluding food, energy, and trade remain relatively strong, indicating that price pressure on the U.S. corporate side has not completely disappeared. (Economic Exchange) That is to say: the surface cooling of inflation is real, but underlying pressures have not completely disappeared. This is why statements from Federal Reserve officials today remain worth watching. Barkin even stated today: Whether further rate hikes are needed in the future remains an open question for now. (ReAlthough US "sticky inflation" has caused short-term pressure on macro funds, the broadening of compliance channels and the deepening of RWA by traditional financial giants are jointly building a solid medium- to long-term bottom for the crypto market.
1. Today's Market Sentiment and Market Review: High-Level Fluctuations, Bullish Momentum Faces 'Soft Resistance'
Today, the crypto market overall showed a pattern of weak fluctuations and divergent consolidation. Both BTC and ETH edged down, with BTC holding near $63,736 (down 0.52%), while ETH remained relatively weak, dropping below the $1,900 mark to $1,889 (down 1.03%).
Market characteristics: This is a typical phase of "liquidity suction" and "oscillating stranglement." Although BTC made multiple intraday attempts to push upward, the upward momentum was clearly constrained by selling pressure from above. The BTC perpetual contract price ($63,699) is slightly discounted to spot prices, reflecting a lack of bullish enthusiasm among retail investors in the derivatives market, as funds are waiting for macro direction choices after the US stock market opens.
Sentiment Index: Market sentiment has fallen from "extreme greed" to "neutral and cautious." The altcoin sector is suffering severe losses, with funds shrinking toward more certain leading assets and platform coins, and the liquidity premium of high-beta altcoins is being ruthlessly stripped away.
---
2. Analysis of Trending Chart Movements: Platform Coins Avoid Risk, Trash Coins Face Heavy Downfall
Today's OKX Hot List offers highly practical guidance, showing the standard flow of funds during periods of panic and hesitation:
1. OKB (Additionally, looking at data from high-net-worth and small-scale investors, there has been a reversal in the past month, which is probably the most promising data we've seen in the short term.
Starting July 30, when $BTC reached $63,000, it was clear that many small-scale investors holding less than 10 Bitcoins were exiting, with most of these tokens going into the hands of high-net-worth investors holding more than 10 Bitcoins.
Some may question whether the BTC was entered by an exchange address, which is why it shows as high-net-worth BTC. However, in reality, the amount of BTC transferred to exchanges after July 30 is not high. Compared to the reduction by small-scale investors versus the increase by high-net-worth investors, the gap is significant.
Therefore, the reduction by these small-scale investors is very likely to be pocketed by high-net-worth investors#芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days
The Korean stock market rose 22% in ten days, with everyone calling it a technical bull market. I actually think this recovery is more inflated than everyone thought.
This rally is essentially the result of two factors: first, the previous drop was too severe, with retail investors blowing up their positions and pushing the sentiment bottom, and short buying brought rebound momentum
Second, easing macro expectations, with foreign capital using windows to replenish chip leaders' positions, is driven by capital flows, not a sudden reversal in industry fundamentals.
Many people mistake a "technical bull market" for the start of a new cycle, but this definition is quite confusing—a 20% rebound from the low is fine, but the premise is that it has dropped nearly 30% from the high, and now it hasn't even touched the pre-decline platform, so it's still far from a true upward trend.
Corresponding to tokenized storage stocks like $SNDK, the feeling is even more direct. The earnings report itself didn't blew up; the guidance was cautious, so the market hit a deep pit first, but now sentiment has pulled it back a bit.
However, the growth in AI storage has yet to translate into real orders, and NAND prices have not stabilized sustainably. Relying solely on hype on expectations won't go far.
The position I had previously put in a position I had hadn't moved—neither cutting nor replenishing—this position isn't suitable for betting on one-sided.
To truly confirm a market reversal, we need solid evidence of factory price increases and downstream orders rebounding, not just a few days of consecutive gains on candlestick charts.CPI met expectations, so why hasn't BTC been able to rise?
First, remember a common pitfall: inflation meeting expectations. In July, CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year; housing costs increased by 0.1%, and the energy index dropped by 1.5%. The data basically did not exceed market expectations, more like removing some tail risk of interest rate hikes rather than creating new buying reasons.
When CoinDesk reported on August 13, BTC briefly returned to about $63,500, falling more than 0.5% intraday and nearly 2% for the week. Meanwhile, the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from about 46% to about 38%, but BTC did not strengthen accordingly. A reduction in tail risk and an immediate rise in risk assets are completely different matters.
In the future, when looking at CPI, it is recommended to break it down into three layers: how much the actual data differs from expectations, how interest rate pricing changes, and whether the dollar, U.S. stocks, and BTC react in the same direction. The focus will be on the Jackson Hole meeting from August 27 to 29, the September 4 employment data, and the next CPI on September 11. If there are no significant surprises, BTC is more likely to continue fluctuating around expectations.$BTC
July PPI data was overall below expectations, especially with the core PPI monthly rate revised upward, making the core PPI monthly rate of 0.2% appear more moderate
Referring to the previous text, here is tonight's best data mix—nominal below 0.1%, core stabilized at 0.2% and below the previous value. Combined with last night's July CPI data, this means CPI + PPI is cooling both consumer and corporate inflation
In market reaction, CME swap rates fell to 32.1%, hitting a new low, but did not break below the 30% safety range, so risks remain
Data is positive for gold but bearish for the dollar. Bond yields across the 1-year, 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year markets have collectively declined, with the 1-year short-term yield down 0.75% and the 2-year yield down 0.5%. Short-term inflationary pressures have eased, and high interest rate pressures have eased
Positive for risk assets, US stocks accelerated their pre-market rally, QQQ was 724 in pre-market trading, the VIX index fell, and US stocks continued their upward trend in the first half of tonight
It should be noted that the CME swap rate currently shows a 32.1% probability of a rate hike in September, meaning the probability of a rate hike in September has not been completely eliminated. Tonight, inflation concerns in the U.S. stock market are very likely to resurge, similar to those in the early hours yesterday.
Next, we need to see if tomorrow's retail data weakens and whether it further suppresses the probability of a September rate hike. If the probability falls below 30%, or even below 25%, then the safe period will officially begin! $ETH BTC和ETH，你更看好谁？**
不要只告诉我答案。
我更想知道：
**为什么？**
是技术？
生态？
用户？
机构？
还是市场共识？
评论区聊聊。
$BTC $ETH
#Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化 Today, as soon as Musk spoke, the rocket shot straight up
$SPCX hit a high of 149.6 today, closing up 9.65% at 146.15.
From the low point, it’s risen nearly 40%. I sold my long position in that strategy too early; now I’m really kicking myself.
Musk said at the all-hands meeting that AI revenue will surpass all other SpaceX businesses next month.
He also set a target: AI computing power to reach 10 gigawatts by the end of next year. What does his estimate mean? In five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX’s value.
SpaceX’s valuation logic has been overturned, shifting from a space company to a space AI computing power company. With the valuation logic changed, the market’s pricing naturally differs.
But one thing to mention: Q2 capital expenditure was 18.37 billion, with 15.8 billion invested in AI infrastructure, while revenue was only 7.8 billion. The burn rate is 2.35 times the revenue. The pie is big, and the cash burn is fierce.
The storage sector also surged. SK Hynix rose over 9%, SanDisk up 5.76%, Micron nearly 5%. Computing power expansion requires chips, storage, and optical communication; the entire industry chain is benefiting.
SanDisk also had an Investor Day today; the market is waiting for management to provide an AI storage roadmap.
This AI infrastructure line—from chips to storage to computing power—the entire chain is being repriced.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $XAU #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% [Pharaoh Market Watch]
Pharaoh won't perform the ritual tonight, he'll switch to watching the market.
Private messages exploded, and all the brothers were asking: Pharaoh, Pharaoh, both CPI and PPI are wilted, can the September rate hike knife finally be thrown aside?
Pharaoh, holding a cigar, spoke the truth: the data did give bulls a way out, but the knife of rate hikes has gone from "hanging overhead" to "hanging over the neck."
—Close to "completely letting go"? Just two traffic lights away.
Let's talk about the data first—that's really giving face.
CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, core CPI was 2.5%, as accurate as copying the answers. PPI was as soft as overnight noodles; upstream inflation was indeed cooling down, but the main contributor was the oil price correction. In June, CPI even saw its first negative growth in six years, and in July it continued to slide along this trend. The only regret was that it didn't swell enough to bring the market to a climax.
But the problem has never been the data itself, rather how the market prices it.
When the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped sharply from 54% to around 40%, and the market really applauded. But Bing's reaction was so honest it made you laugh—pushing back to 64,000, then rebounding to 64,500, a classic 'boot down + run away' old script, even more formulaic than the pharaoh's gold chain.
The 65,000 hurdle is like the morning rush subway—no matter what, you can't get past it. What does that mean? Funds are all crouching on the wall, waiting for the wind to blow in that direction.
The real battlefield lies on the policy side.
Goldman Sachs flipped the table, saying they would raise interest rates within the year? Don't even think about it—hold back across the board, citing that cooling inflation is structural, not a last-minute visit for your period.
But within the Fed, three opposing votes are blatantly visible, and with Walsh's uncertainty lingering like a ghost, who in the market dares to relax? The rate hike expectation shifted from "set in stone" to "50-50 split"—does this situation mean the big picture wants to break through unilaterally? Better go to sleep.
For Dabing, this week is focused on one thing: can 65,000 go from the ceiling to the floor?
CPI and PPI give bulls a chance to catch their breath, but breathing out doesn't mean a takeoff. Around 65,000, volume must increase and hold steady, like a pharaoh firmly standing on the red carpet, only then will you be qualified to look higher.
If the data matches so well and the breakthrough still doesn't break, then don't fantasize about a bull market—keep grinding until everyone's patience runs low.
Remember, good orders are made by waiting, not rushed out.
Inflation is cooling down, divisions are widening, and Bitcoin is waiting for a more certain signal.
Follow the pharaoh and never lose your way to wealth! $BTC $ETH $OKB #CPI与PPI同步降温, the divide over rate hikes widens Andre Cronje, founder of Yearn Finance, has recently begun to criticize DeFi 🤔 again. In his view, most protocols can no longer be considered true "decentralized finance"; a more accurate term should be "on-chain finance." The reason is that he believes true DeFi should be tamper-proof, and no one can arbitrarily suspend or modify its rules. However, in reality, most protocols have management companies, risk committees, asset screening mechanisms, and emergency suspension functions.
When attacked, the team can freeze contracts, adjust parameters, and even decide which assets users can access. Although the product runs on the blockchain, its power structure is increasingly resembling that of traditional banks. The protocol's governance token is not as decentralized as imagined.
When the ECB previously studied protocols like Aave, MakerDAO, and Uniswap, it found that the top 100 addresses in each project's token holdings controlled over 80% of governance tokens. This is not only an internal debate within the industry but may also affect regulation.
Once a protocol has clear decision-makers and control, it becomes difficult to continue circumventing traditional financial rules with "full decentralization." Meanwhile, the total value locked in DeFi has dropped from $167 billion to about $75 billion over the past 10 months, shrinking by more than half.
Beyond the cooling of the market, frequent attacks have also forced projects to reconsider their choice between security and decentralization. The problem is, once a completely non-interventional agreement goes wrong, no one can step on the brakes; Retaining emergency control, yet still willing to yield晚间复盘：PPI再添“软”证据，通胀降温拼图已齐——但$BTC 仍在原地踏步
今晚20:30出炉的PPI，再度交出“偏鸽”答卷。
7月PPI同比录得4.7%，低于预期的4.9%，更较前值5.5%明显回落；环比持平，而预期为+0.2%。两项读数均落在预期下沿。结合昨晚CPI的3.4%符合预期，本周通胀“双核”成绩单可概括为：CPI中性偏稳，PPI明确偏软——从成本端到消费端的降温传导链条，至此基本完整。
理论上，这应构成风险资产的顺风：PPI走低缓解企业成本压力，未来终端通胀有望进一步受抑，加息预期应被削弱，BTC等资产理应受益。
然而盘面却冷眼相对：$BTC 报63563，跌1.03%；$ETH 报1886，跌1.39%。PPI公布后仅见BTC短暂反抽至63665，旋即回落，几无有效反弹。
对此，市场存在两种对立叙事，你更倾向哪一个？
叙事一：利好早已“明牌”，买预期卖事实
BTC自午间63900一线持续滑落至63313，ETH同步从1899跌至1874——这波午盘下行，正是“卖预期”的典型演绎。待数据落地，利好兑现，增量买盘缺席，自然掀不起波澜。CPI符合预期、PPI低于预期，这些早在定价中被充分消化。
叙事二：通胀降了，但衰退阴影更重
PPI疲软从来都有两面性——既可以是成本压力缓解，也可能是需求萎缩的映射。在非农已现负增长、零售数据尚未揭晓的真空期，市场对“通胀回落”的喜悦正被“经济还能撑多久”的疑虑覆盖。明晚的零售销售，才是检验成色的第一块试金石。
我的视角：短期中性，方向留待明夜裁决
今晚PPI既未击穿63163的下沿防线，也未突破64000的上沿压制，BTC重新缩回熟悉的震荡格子里。明天零售数据才是真正的破局变量：
· 若数据坚挺，“软着陆”叙事加固，BTC方有底气挑战上方空间；
· 若数据疲弱，衰退恐慌重燃，63163大概率难守。
关键位清晰：BTC下方63163（三日验证的底部），上方64000（反复受阻的颈线）；ETH下方1872，上方1900。
今夜数据未定方向，却释放了明确信号——通胀这条锁链，美联储已几近失去继续加息的借口。
剩下的，交给明晚的消费答卷。
$ETH $OKB
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 PPI is even softer than CPI, and the probability of a rate hike in September has been further suppressed. The impact on $BTC next #CPI and PPI cool down simultaneously, widening the divergence between rate hikes
US July PPI rose 4.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.9% and previous 5.5%, the lowest since March; month-on-month growth hit 0%, and expectations at least were still hoping for a 0.2% increase. Core PPI rose only 0.2% month-on-month, also below the expected 0.3%.
CPI met expectations, while PPI was overall below forecasts. With both reports combined, inflation cooling is no longer just talk.
CME FedWatch data has already provided the answer: the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose to 59.9%, while the probability of a rate hike dropped to just 40.1%. A week ago, the probability of a rate hike was around 54%, but after the PPI data came out, traders directly lowered the probability of a rate hike in September.
Fwdbonds' chief economist put it bluntly: "The second consecutive month of no PPI increase, which is good news for the cost-of-living crisis for American households." "
But don't get too happy too soon.
Overall inflation is 3.4%, still far from the Fed's 2% target. Hawks within the Fed are still clamoring for rate hikes, with PCE data and the Jackson Hole annual meeting before September—there are still many uncertainties.
On top of that, Brent crude is approaching $90, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz hasn't settled down yet—if oil prices surge again, inflation data could be pushed up again at any time.
What does it mean for BTC?
The US dollar index falling below 100 is positive for risk assets. But after the CPI and PPI data were released, there is a short-term lack of new catalysts. The probability of a rate hike in September has dropped to 40%, which has been largely priced in by the market. In the coming month, market focus will shift to September 16—the CLARITY bill vote and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting coincide on the same day.
Trading strategy remains unchanged:
Support 63,300-63,500 to buy long, stop loss at 63,000, target 64,000-64,200; Short at 64,000-64,200 unless volume increases, stop loss at 64,500. Don't overdo positions; there are too many variables before September, no one knows where the next thunderstorm will be.$BTC On-Chain & Contract Depth | 2026-08-13 Whale 40x high-leverage short positions on the verge of liquidation, ETH key price battles continue to dry up market liquidity
All data time, source, address, and price have been traced and organized. As of Beijing time on 2026-08-13, information sources include BlockBeats and TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) on-chain contract monitoring
1. Complete Event of BTC Whale High-Leverage Short Positions (Monitored Data as of August 12)
1. Data source: BlockBeats cites TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) contract on-chain monitoring
2. Whale address: Contract account starting with 0xff84
3. Position details
- Operation: 40x cross-margin short position for 1792.6 BTC
- Total nominal value of positions: approximately $114 million
- Average Comprehensive Position Construction Price: $63,999.2
- Current unrealized gains: approximately $572,000
- Forced liquidation price: $64,102.1
- Monitoring moment BTC quote: $63,681
- Only $421 less than the liquidation price, an increase of about 0.66%
4. The meaning of market games
This is a massive short position with over $100 million in leverage.
- If BTC rises and effectively breaks above the $64,102 liquidation line: the whale's 40x short position triggers forced liquidation, and the system will automatically buy large amounts of BTC to close positions, providing short-term long liquidation momentum and indirectly driving ETH to rebound and recover.
- If the price remains suppressed below the liquidation level, this massive short position will continue to be held safely, continuing to exert selling pressure on the market, making it difficult for bulls to open up rebound space.
2. Key technical threshold for Ethereum and ETH: $1850 defensive level
- Key support: $1850
Scenario breakdown:
1. BTC pushed the price above 64,102, whale short positions were liquidated, sentiment warmed, ETH held 1850, and only then could a recovery and rebound occur;
2. If the market continues to weaken and ETH effectively falls below $1850, Ethereum's downward correction potential will be further opened, which will simultaneously drag down risk sentiment across the entire crypto market.
3. Market Reality: Extreme Lack of Liquidity in the Secondary Market (Market Observation on August 13)
Feedback from OKX Planet user order book testing: spot trading on the exchange within 15 minutes was only about a hundred BTC units.
Combined with the macroeconomic data already confirmed:
Trading volumes of Binance and Bybit perpetual contracts have fallen to nearly three-year lows, while spot trading volumes across the market have fallen to their lowest levels since 2019.
Low liquidity brings two very real trading characteristics:
1. Upward: Once a whale's short position is liquidated, due to insufficient market depth, the price will experience a rapid and intense pulse surge;
2. Downward: Once the support level is broken and there is no buying interest, rapid spike insertion and cliff-like drops are likely;
Whether bullish or bearish, slippage risk is significantly amplified, and high leverage risk is further intensified.
4. Macroeconomic Background: US July CPI data is out, cooling expectations for a rate hike in September
1. Event time: On the evening of August 12, 2026, the US released July CPI inflation data
2. Impact of the event: CPI data was delivered smoothly, cooling market expectations for further Fed rate hikes in September.
But note: rate hike expectations cooled ≠ cut immediately, US Treasury yields remain high, and dollar liquidity is only marginally easing without a shift to easing. This is only weak positive for crypto assets and is not enough to reverse the current bear market bottoming pattern.
5. Summary of Current Market Contradictions
1. Futures side: There is a whale short position worth over 100 million yuan, with a 40x scale whale at $64,102 serving as the short-term life-and-death line. Upward is a short-term liquidation by bears to boost the rally; downward pressure means bears continue to suppress the market.
2. Linked Markets: ETH1850 is a secondary key threshold; breaking below it would amplify the risk of a market correction.
3. Fatal Risk: Severe liquidity shrinks across the entire market; regardless of rises or falls, volatility is amplified, making pin insertion very likely.
4. Macro Perspective: The easing US CPI brings slight positive news, but a series of medium-term negative factors such as miner capitulation, ETF outflows, whale spot reductions, and the risk of Japan raising interest rates still exist. Short-term contract trading cannot change the overall market trend.Glamsterdam is not a "follow-up to Pectra"; it is the next hard fork following Fusaka's launch last December, and the progress is faster than the market generally expected—the Sepolia testnet completed the fork on August 3, the Hoodi testnet is scheduled for August 17, and the mainnet activation target is set for September 16. In other words, the script of the "testnet announcement in August" is already halfway done; the real focus is next week's Hoodi fork and the mainnet launch date.
Let's first look at the market's positions. As of August 13, BTC was at $63,741, ETH at $1,892, and the ETH/BTC ratio was near 0.0297, a deep zone at a multi-year low. The Fear and Greed Index was between 26 and 38, a clear panic zone. Since hitting a high of $66,601 on July 22, BTC has been falling steadily, currently stuck between 63,400 and 64,000. In this environment, what ETH lacks is not good news, but a positive that belongs only to itself—and Glamsterdam happens to be something BTC lacks during the same period.
The weight of this upgrade is different from previous ones. ePBS (EIP-7732) writes proposer-builder separation into the protocol layer, BALs (EIP-7928) allows transactions to execute in parallel, and with gas repricing and the 200M gas limit design goal, the focus is on L1 scaling itself—bringing the past years' narrative of "scaling through L2" back to the mainnet, which developers call the biggest fork since the Merge. This hits the old wounds of ETH value capture: L2 offloading, sluggish mainnet gas fees, ETH becoming a "fuel discount asset." By the way, if the goal of tens of thousands of TPS is achieved, the "speed premium" narrative on which SOL survives will also be repriced.
Historical patterns support the capital flow. Pectra's activation daily on-chain trading volume is 2.2 times the baseline, Fusaka's is 1.9 times, and whale traffic will definitely move 10 to 21 days before major upgrades. If the mainnet date of September 16 is confirmed, the last two weeks of August to mid-September will be a capital waiting window. In terms of price, ETH has strong support between $1,750 and $1,800; a recovery of $2,000 would be considered a trend reversal confirmation; On the ratio side, 0.030 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; a recovery above 0.032-0.035 would be considered valid; otherwise, it would be an oversold rebound.
But a bucket of cold water must be poured on it: Ethereum's upgrade history is a history of "buying expectations, selling facts"—after Dencun launched, ETH died out of sight; after activating Pectra and Fusaka, they both first rallied and then dumped. The core contradiction is that Glamsterdam changed the pipeline, not the economic model. Gas fees can drop by up to 78%, which is good for user experience, but actually bad for ETH's burning deflationary logic; If L1 scaling is competing for L2's existing fees rather than new demand, value capture remains unsolvable. $BTC It's true that there are no technical catalysts during the same period, but it has ETF capital flows and institutional allocations as a bottom. $ETH To break out independently, it relies on narrative fulfillment to generate on-chain data, not just another fireworks on the day of the upgrade.
My judgment: The probability of a technical fix for ETH/BTC in the last two weeks of August is quite high. The odds at 0.0296 are already sufficient, but treat it as an "event transaction"—cashing out in batches before and after mainnet activation. Don't treat trading opportunities as faith positions. Glamsterdam is solving Ethereum's capacity issue; ETH's price issue still needs to wait for the next answer.The rally is indeed strong. 13.76 million liquidated in 24 hours. Short positions are repeatedly harvested, but the unlocking is still on August 20. More chips will emerge in September, and the circulating market will continue to expand. This supply pressure is real and cannot be held by sentiment forever. Smart Money still holds 170 million short positions, not counted by other exchanges. This shows the short selling force is only temporarily suppressed, not disappeared. Once the hype fades, the unlocking chips really fall down, and the pullback won't be small. $SPCX near 150 is a hard resistance level. It failed to hold in previous times. Can it break through this time? It depends on whether the volume can keep selling. If it's just a low volume touch, it's very likely a false breakout of $ETH. Chasing long at this level isn't cost-effective, and short selling is easy to be crushed by short-term sentiment. Both sides are uncomfortable, so it's better to come out and see first. Once the direction is confirmed, then make a move on $BTC. Don't rush to take sides—wait for clearer signals. #CPI and PPI cooling simultaneously, rate hike divergence widens #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% GoPlus Security (GPS) +12.42% to $0.0111 in 24h, clearly outperforming the declining market.Main driver:
Security narrative heating up after major hacks. High-profile incidents (including a $50M+ whale hack highlighted by GoPlus and Harmony’s ONE plunging 38% after a 4B-token exploit) are drawing attention and speculative capital into pure security infrastructure plays like GPS.Volume confirmation:
24h volume surged +129.77% to $12.04M, showing real interest. No other catalysts (partnerships, product launches, or listings) spotted. Moved independently of Bitcoin and the broader market.Short-term outlook:
Hold above $0.0105 and keep the security story alive → possible challenge of $0.0120.
Break below $0.0100 → risk of correction toward the 7-day average.Positive momentum driven by timely narrative, but still speculative and news-dependent.Not financial advice. High volatility and reversal risk. Only risk what you can afford to lose. DYOR.
#GPS $GPS 📊 PIP & $BTC — Quick Summary
U.S. July PPI came in softer than expected, creating a mildly bullish macro setup for BTC and risk assets.
🟢 PPI MoM: 0.0% vs. 0.2% expected
🟢 PPI YoY: 4.7% vs. 4.9% expected
🟢 Core PPI MoM: 0.2% vs. 0.3% expected
🟡 Core PPI YoY: 4.2%, in line
Why bullish?
Softer inflation could reduce pressure on the Fed, potentially supporting lower yields, a weaker dollar, and stronger risk appetite.
🎯 BTC Game Plan
🟢 Bullish: BTC holds the breakout, yields fall, and higher lows form → continuation likely.
🟡 Fakeout: BTC pumps but quickly loses the breakout → possible liquidity sweep; avoid chasing.
🔴 Bearish: BTC fails to rally despite soft PPI and breaks support → downside liquidity could still be targeted.
Bottom line:
The macro signal is bullish, but confirmation is still needed. Watch BTC price structure, Treasury yields, and DXY. Don't chase the first candle.
Soft PPI = bullish bias.
Strong BTC confirmation = trade signal.
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound #GoldYearEndOutlook #SECActsAsCLARITYWaits 为什么美股涨，$BTC 不涨？
1. 资金被美股分流
市场热钱优先涌向美股AI、存储、航天（$SPCX 、$SNDK ），风险偏好优先给有财报业绩兑现的股票，加密市场缺少独立利好，属于被动跟随宏观，抢不到增量资金
2. 宏观层面只消除了“通胀爆表的利空”，但没有给出降息确定时间表
CPI达标，只是排除再次加息的风险，但不足以让美联储快速降息。9月降息概率小幅抬升，但仍存在不确定性，机构不会押注加密资产
3. 技术面本身承压
BTC前期多次冲击65000失败，64000‑64500形成较重抛压；在没有利好的情况下很难直接突破，CPI这种“符合预期”的数据不足以打破区间震荡格局
当前市场的多空因素
✅利好
- 通胀没有反弹，排除恶性通胀再度抬头的黑天鹅；美元、美债收益率没有重新走强，宏观大环境没有转坏
- 现货ETF依然有间歇性资金回流，长期持有者链上筹码稳固
⚠️压制因素
1）美股吸走大量风险资金，加密缺少独立故事
2）加密监管法案推进缓慢，政策预期迟迟无法落地
3）BTC卡在关键阻力位，需要更强催化，才能打开上行空间
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Dehydrated all-day market data, strip away market noise, and focus only on the core information that truly influences capital flows. 👇 🌍 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ One-sentence summary: US stocks rise with hard tech, BTC continues to play dead, Asia-Pacific semiconductors surge, but A-share and Hong Kong stocks pull back. The money hasn't disappeared, but the AI computing power chain has been squeezed out. 🪙 Crypto | 63K holded, but no one attacked. BTC continues to fluctuate around 63,500, with the 64,500-65,000 above welded tight, and the 63,000 support below temporarily active. (1) ETF capital flow
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $61.16 million yesterday, while Fidelity's FBTC had a net outflow of $46.82 million. ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $7.38 million, with BlackRock's ETHA leading the way. (2) 24h OKX On-Floor Heat $MOVE Leading the gainers on OKX, driven by ecosystem narratives and concentrated capital attacks. $APR Leading the decline list for OKX, down over 15% in 24 hours, having significantly retraced previous gains, leaving investors stranded by buying highs. 💡 Uncle's Observation: What BTC lacks now is not macro positive news but its own narrative. The meme wave is fading, ETF outflows, and on-chain demand is not picking up—short-term volatility is still awaiting new capital signals. 🇨🇳 A-shares | Fluctuating Correction, Technology Sector Under Pressure Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.5%, ChiNext fell 0.45%. After yesterday's tech recovery, profit-taking occurred today, with a slight adjustment in optical modules. 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Stocks & Asia-Pacific | Japan and South Korea Semiconductor Stocks Surge, Hong Kong Stocks Slightly Retreat, Hang Seng Index Down 0.17美国官方数据公布，7月PPI环比0%，低于0.2%的市场预期，较6月-0.3%回升0.3个百分点；核心PPI环比0.2%，低于0.3%的预期，与6月持平。整体价格从负增长回到零增长，但未回到市场预估的涨幅，生产端通胀动能仍偏温和。
3月PPI环比0.5%，4月升至1.4%，5月回落至1.1%，6月转为-0.3%，7月虽较6月修复，但仍低于3月至5月水平。核心PPI没有跟随整体项反弹，说明剔除波动项后的价格压力没有加速。
对美联储而言，7月PPI弱于预期，与此前通胀压力缓和的叙事一致。联邦基金利率维持在3.75%的背景下，这组数据可能降低短期内进一步加息的必要性，但整体PPI已从6月负值回到零增长，市场对政策路径的判断仍需继续跟踪后续通胀和就业数据。#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% PPI below expectations is short-term positive but don't expect a sharp rise
July PPI rose 0% month-on-month (expected 0.2%) and core PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month (expected 0.3%), both below expectations. Production-side inflation did not accelerate, consistent with the narrative of cooling CPI.
For the Fed: This further reduces the need for short-term rate hikes. But note, the PPI fell from -0.3% in June back to 0%, not full deflation, just a mild recovery. Core PPI remained flat, indicating that structural pressures after excluding energy and food haven't worsened, but it's not a significant cooling either.
For the crypto market:
Short-term positive but limited strength—CPI has already priced in expectations of "inflation easing," while PPI is just a follow-up confirmation, not a surprise.
$BTC: The 63,400 area has always been waiting for direction. A PPI below expectations will give bulls some confidence, but the resistance zone between 64,000 and 64,500 won't easily break just because of this data. If the US stock market opens higher tonight, BTC might try to reach 64,000, but if volume is insufficient, it will pull back.
$ETH: Mainly follow the lead. 1900 remains a key threshold; PPI positive factors will at most allow it to fluctuate a bit longer in the 1880-1920 range. For ETH to strengthen independently, it needs to see capital returning from DeFi/L2 ecosystems, rather than relying on macro data handouts.
Key reminder: Don't rush in just because it is "below expectations." The market is now numb to "cooling inflation." The real way BTC breaks through 64,500 is either a continuous large inflow from ETFs or a dovish from Fed officials. PPI only makes bears hesitant to sell for now, but it doesn't mean bulls have momentum to rally.
Tonight, let's look at the risk appetite transmission after the US stock market opens. If the US market doesn't buy in, BTC will still bottom out between 63,000 and 63,500.
Strategy: Short-term bullish but not overwhelmed. Reduce positions if resistance near 64,000, and strictly stop loss if it falls below 63,000. For those without positions, the other direction is clear; don't chase rallies after the data.
$BTC $ETH
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#CLARITY延期, the SEC plans to advance regulatory rule supplementation $ETH Stronger than $BTC today, not a candlestick behind it: institutional funds are undergoing a small rotation
BTC was relatively weak today, but ETH actually rose about 1.5%, showing clear relative strength.
There was also an interesting change on the capital side: on August 12, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $61.1 million, while ETH ETFs still recorded net inflows.
This is more worth paying attention to than simply discussing whether "ETH can reach 2000."
Because real capital rotation usually doesn't happen with ETH suddenly surging, but rather with ETH appearing first:
BTC funds weaken→ ETH/BTC stabilizes→ ETH strengthens independently→ funds continue to spread into high-beta assets.
So tonight, besides ETH/USDT, I will focus on watching ETH/BTC. If ETH's rise is only because of a BTC rebound, that means limited meaning; If BTC continues to move sideways and ETH remains strong, it shows that funds are indeed increasing ETH weighting.
A single day of ETF data cannot prove that rotation is valid. For ETH to truly strengthen, it needs capital continuity and joint confirmation by ETH/BTC; you can't just chase higher prices just because it outperformed BTC in one day.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard. #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion Evening analysis: PPI is also below expectations, inflation cooling chain intact—but $BTC is still grinding
Tonight's 8:30 PM PPI is another "soft" result.
July PPI was 4.7% year-on-year, expected 4.9%, and previous 5.5%—significantly below expectations. Month-on-month was flat, with an expected 0.2% increase. Both figures fell below expectations. Combined with last night's CPI of 3.4%, the two inflation data releases this week showed neutral CPI, weak PPI, and the chain of inflation cooling is complete.
In theory, this is positive. A below-expected PPI means that cost pressures on companies are easing, inflation passing on to consumption will further cool, rate hike expectations should be suppressed, and risk assets should benefit.
But looking at the market, the $BTC was at 63,563, down 1.03%. $ETH at 1,886, down 1.39%. In the minutes after the PPI data came out, BTC only rebounded slightly to 63,665 before retreating, with almost no meaningful reaction.
There are two explanations behind this; you can decide for yourself which one to believe.
First: The market had already priced in the positive news before the PPI. BTC slid from 63,900 at midday to 63,313, ETH fell from 1899 to 1874—this afternoon's decline was "selling expectations." By the time the data came out, the positive news was priced in, but there was no new buying. The CPI in line with expectations plus PPI below expectations had already been digested by the market.
The second scenario: The positive news of cooling inflation is overshadowed by "recession concerns." There are two interpretations of a weakening PPI—either easing inflationary pressures or weakening economic demand. When nonfarm payrolls have already declined and retail sales have yet to be released, the market becomes increasingly cautious about the positive news of "inflation has fallen," because the next question is always "Is the economy doing well?" Tomorrow night's retail sales data will answer this question.
My view: short-term neutral, leave the direction to tomorrow. Tonight's PPI didn't push BTC below 63,163, nor did it push above 64,000; the market returned to that familiar box. Tomorrow's retail sales will be the real signal—strong data and a soft landing narrative will give BTC confidence to break upward; weak data and recession fears will make it highly unlikely to hold 63,163.
Key levels: below BTC, 63,163 is the three-day confirmation bottom, and above 64,000 is a recurring hurdle. ETH below 1,872, above 1,900.
Tonight's data didn't provide direction, but it sent a signal: the Fed is running out of excuses for rate hikes in the inflation chain.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard The market is 🔥 completely lively
South Korea's KOSPI rebounded more than 23% from its low at the end of July, directly entering a technical bull market.
The real main thread is clear: AI storage is being repriced by the market.
Three major signals have completely changed the logic of the industry:
1️⃣ Sovereign funds enter: Temasek is positioning Samsung and SK Hynix, with long-term bets on undervalued storage.
2️⃣ Giants frantically distribute dividends and buybacks: Billion-yuan shareholder returns are realized, cyclical stocks are starting to follow value stock logic.
3️⃣ Continued tight supply and demand: HBM continues to consume capacity, and the shortage in 2027 may be even more severe than this year.
Past storage: price increases→ expansion→ oversupply→ plummet
Now, AI storage: demand continues to surge, capacity is locked in, and cycles are forcibly extended
But a rational reminder:
The cycle curse has never disappeared.
Is AI ending the cycle, or merely raising the current top?
The current madness determines future heights and drawdown space.
The storage supermarket is just beginning, and the game is just beginning.
#芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
$BTC $ETH $OKB More and more signs are starting to taste like the latter half of a bear market.
The proportion of short-term BTC holders has been steadily declining, a phenomenon that has appeared in the late stages of previous bear markets.
Short-term traders are decreasing, new funds are inactive, and market attention is declining; Meanwhile, chips are gradually accumulating in the hands of long-term holders.
The hardest phase of a bear market is often not a daily plunge.
Instead, it fell to the end, with fewer and fewer people even discussing it.
When will the short-term holders' share rebound from its lows next?
This means new participants and new demand are entering the market again. $BTC #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled For companies that combine AI cloud computing with crypto asset allocation, holding large amounts of ETH is by no means a simple "hoarding speculation." The current mature staking mechanism in the Ethereum ecosystem can provide enterprises with stable native cash flow returns. Bit Digital deposits massive assets on the ETH 2.0 staking network, effectively converting digital assets into a kind of "government bond with intrinsic yield" or interest-bearing assets, effectively hedges the risk of traditional sovereign currency depreciation. Funds are willing to concentrate their bets on ETH, reflecting institutional optimism about future macro liquidity easing, a recovery in Ethereum Layer 2 activity, and sustained improvements in staking rates. The market is transitioning from simply "speculating on concepts" to competing on "asset cash flow creation capabilities." Bit Digital's remarkable increase of 164,310 ETH sends a clear signal to the market: smart industrial capital did not exit amid volatility, but chose to invest real money in core assets at the bottom of the cycle. $BTC $ETH $OKB The underlying logic of shorting SanDisk is not about short-term sentiment, but about the capital game under margin mechanisms; Understanding the linkage between institutional positions, funding costs, and industry cycles can distinguish between short-term sentiment sell-offs and trend opportunities, and avoid passive liquidation during forced liquidations and extreme volatility.
1. The Starting Point of Short Selling: Citron's "Cycle Peak" Theory
- Cycle peak: Citron believes that memory chips are highly cyclical commodities, and current high gross margins are more of a signal of a cycle top; Once capacity is released, supply and demand can quickly reverse.
- Intensified competition: Samsung entered the high-end SSD market with SanDisk cores with more advanced technology, setting a target of "gross margin not less than 50%," which may squeeze profits through price wars.
- Shareholder Sell-off: SanDisk's former parent company Western Digital reduced its holdings at its stock peak, interpreted as insiders' judgment that the cycle had peaked.
- Valuation mismatch: Criticizing the market for pricing SanDisk as an "Nvidia-style growth stock," arguing it lacks sufficient moats and should return to cyclical stock pricing.
2. Multiple "structural change theories" and performance validation
- AI-driven structural demand: AI servers require 8–10 times more memory than traditional servers and rely more on high-speed HBM; The demand brought by AI is seen as structural rather than cyclical.
- Capacity tilted toward high margins: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and others have shifted over 70% of their advanced wafer capacity to high-margin HBM, squeezing general storage capacity and exacerbating supply tightness.
- Inventory and long-term contracts support prices: Industry inventories are at historic lows, with some products having inventory turnover lasting only 2–4 weeks; SanDisk and others have signed 3–5 year long-term contracts with cloud vendors to lock in future capacity and profits.
- Performance and gross profit verification: Q4 fiscal year 2026 revenue of $8.97 billion (+372% year-on-year), GAAP gross margin reached 84.6%, significantly higher than industry historical levels, indicating structural improvement in profitability.
3. Margin Game: How to Amplify Extreme Volatility in Forced Liquidation
- Leverage and margin mechanism: Short selling requires paying margin and bearing leverage; When the stock price rises, the short margin account is under pressure, which may trigger margin calls or forced liquidations.
- Long-Bear Standoff and "Short Squeeze": Under a strong trend, bulls continuously buy to push the stock price higher, while bears are forced to close their positions (buy back the stock). Buying further pushes prices higher, forming a "short squeeze" cycle.
- Sources of extreme volatility: Once a party's capital chain is under pressure and forced liquidations are triggered, the market is prone to extreme volatility; The strength of margin directly determines the resilience of the market.
4. Current Capital Structure: Institutions are increasing holdings, short positions are exiting
- Continued institutional holdings: As of Q2 2026, institutions hold about 77.06% of SanDisk's outstanding shares; Assenagon, Orient Harbor, and others made new additions or increased holdings in Q2, indicating institutional recognition of their long-term prospects.
- Weakening bear pressure: As of July 31, 2026, short positions amounted to 6.82 million shares, accounting for 4.62% of the circulating shares, down 13.16% from the previous month, indicating some short positions have chosen to close positions and exit.
5. How ordinary investors can avoid pitfalls and participate rationally
- Beware of "betting only on direction": blind short selling that neglects leverage and risk control can easily cause forced liquidation during a trending rise.
- Distinguishing short-term sentiment from trends:
- Short-term sentiment sell-off: Often triggered by negative news and rapid declines; if fundamentals remain unchanged, it is often a buying opportunity.
- Trending opportunities/risks: Requires a comprehensive assessment based on institutional positions, funding costs, industry supply and demand, and company performance.
- Control positions and leverage: In high-volatility cyclical stocks, prioritize reducing leverage and diversifying holdings to avoid excessive risk concentration in a single asset $SNDK $BTC Holding $63,500, but ETFs are starting to flow out: Tonight's focus is not on bottom-fishing, but on "who is taking over"
BTC fluctuated around $63,500 today, about $500 lower than yesterday morning; More notably, on August 12, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $61.1 million.
This is a different structure from the previous days when "ETFs continue to provide buying."
Tonight, I focus more on one question: When ETFs reduce their positions, can BTC still hold between 63,000 and 63,500?
If capital flows out but the price no longer hits new lows, it indicates there is still support within the market; Conversely, if 63,000 is breached and the rebound cannot be recovered, there is no need to rush to guess the bottom in the short term.
Additionally, the US 10-year yield is now back around **4.72%**, and the US dollar is also relatively strong, which is not friendly to BTC, a high-beta asset.
Trading strategy: Look for support between 63,000 and 63,500, then recover 64,000 and then look for a correction. Do not bet on the direction in advance.
Risk Boundary: ETF outflows for one day cannot directly define the trend, but when "capital outflows + price breakouts" occur simultaneously, it is worth actively reducing positions.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Overview of core PPI data
Market consensus expects:
Indicator Previous Value Expected Expected Range
PPI MoM -0.3% +0.2% -0.1%~+0.3% PP1 YoY 5.5% 4.9% 4.7%~5.2%
Core PP January Monthly Rate 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%~0.4%
Core PPI annual rate 4.7% 4.2% 4.1%~4.7%
The annual PPI forecast fell from the previous 5.5% to 4.9%, continuing the cooling trend seen since June (6.5%->5.5%). If it meets expectations, it will resonate with yesterday's CPI showing "double moderate inflation"; If the rebound exceeds expectations, the narrative of "moderate CPI but uncut corporate costs" will restart pricing in rate hikes.
Initial jobless claims will be announced simultaneously, and if market expectations rise above 210,000, combined with a moderate PPI, the logic of "economic slowdown + inflation cooling" will be reinforced. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #黄金维持高位, institutions remain bullish by year-end Pretending to take notes during a meeting, sneaking a glance at my phone, OKB rushed straight to the area near 101? Wow, that whole thing left me a bit confused.
Looking at the market, the daily chart is moving upward along the moving average, and MACD bulls are still seeing increased volume... Hmm... It does look pretty strong. But platform coins have huge elasticity; if they rise sharply, pullbacks can be fierce. 105 is a strong resistance level, and they might be reluctant to chase the price again. We promised not to chase highs... My hand hovered above the screen for a long time, but in the end, it pulled back. I still vividly remember the last time I chased high and got stuck—I really have to admit it.
But then again, can this round hold above 100? Any experts, please share? I'm just observing. If you're going to trade, remember to hold a light position... Don't stand on the mountaintop feeling the wind like I did.
$BTC SECActsAsCLARITYWaits: SEC Acts While CLARITY Waits
The crypto market is approaching a major regulatory turning point in the U.S.: the SEC is advancing crypto-focused rules while the CLARITY Act remains pending in the Senate. This could influence institutional capital, token issuance, and regulatory certainty.
The positive side is that the SEC is exploring a “tailored offering regime” for certain crypto activities. If implemented effectively, clearer rules could reduce legal uncertainty and encourage institutional participation.
$BTC could benefit from greater regulatory transparency, strengthening Bitcoin’s position as a mature digital asset. For $ETH, the impact could be broader because Ethereum sits at the center of stablecoins, DeFi, tokenization, and smart contracts. $SOL could benefit if clearer rules encourage blockchain adoption. Meanwhile, $OKB could gain if trading, custody, and crypto ecosystems become more standardized.
However, significant risks remain. The CLARITY Act has not yet become law, and delays into September preserve uncertainty. SEC action does not mean the U.S. has completed a comprehensive crypto framework. Proposals still face regulatory procedures, while SEC-CFTC jurisdiction remains a major issue.
This is particularly important for assets beyond $BTC, as token issuance, staking, DeFi, and fundraising could continue facing regulatory questions.
Therefore, the current signal is structurally bullish but uncertain short term. If the SEC develops clearer rules and the CLARITY Act advances in September, $BTC , $ETH , $SOL , and $OKB could benefit from stronger confidence and capital flows.
If Congress continues delaying legislation, crypto may remain caught between the promise of regulatory clarity and the reality of regulatory uncertainty.
The bigger question is whether the U.S. can establish a crypto framework that is clear, predictable, and sustainable.
#SECActsAsCLARITYWaits
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#StrategySellsBTCAgain
$BTC
$ETH #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
The CPI data is out and overall meets expectations.
July CPI was 3.4% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month; core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, all on the same target. The market reaction was very direct—CME FedWatch's probability of a rate hike in September dipped slightly from about 47% before the data release to around 45%. BTC briefly fell to around 64,000 and then pulled back, with S&P futures up 0.46% and gold up over 1%.
The stats themselves are not bad, but there is one detail that needs to be mentioned.
In June, the CPI month-on-month was -0.4%, turning negative for the first time in six years, thanks to oil prices falling from a brief pause in the US and Iran. In July, the month-on-month rate returned to +0.1%, turning from a decline to an increase, indicating that the base effect of energy prices is fading. Moreover, housing costs remain firm, contributing two-thirds of the overall monthly CPI increase. Inflation is cooling down, but the pace of cooling is slowing.
So will September add more or not?
CME data shows a 54.1% probability of keeping rates unchanged, and a 25 basis point hike at 45.9%. Goldman Sachs judges the Fed will not raise rates again this year, while Morgan Stanley's chief economist says inflation in line with expectations will keep the narrative of "no need to raise rates" alive.
My judgment is: the probability of a rate hike in September is decreasing, but not yet to the point where it can be ruled out.
At the July FOMC press conference, Wash said whether there will be a rate hike in September depends on whether inflation data can continue to decline. This July data gave a reason to "remain on the sidelines," but August's CPI is the real decisive factor—if it rebounds again in August, the suspense for September will be back.
BTC is currently holding sideways near 64,000, with CPI providing short-term support, but the real direction still depends on August data. So we have to wait another month.⚠️ Tonight (August 13, 2026) at 8:30 AM, the US July PPI results can be summed up in one sentence: overall cooling exceeded expectations, core services remain sticky, and overall the short-term positive for $BTC $ETH is positive, but not the kind of "blind surge."
Cooling PPI → easing tightening pressure from the Federal Reserve→ Rising expectations of rate cuts → US Treasury yields and the dollar under pressure → improved liquidity of risk assets → BTC benefited
Since last night's CPI delivered a "expected" moderate report card (3.4% year-on-year), tonight's overall PPI cooled again, effectively filling in half the narrative that "US inflation eased simultaneously from consumption to production."
👂 This is a substantially bullish signal for Bitcoin:
1. Expectations for rate cuts have resurfaced, and the valuation environment for duration assets (tech stocks, crypto assets) has improved
2. The tail upside risk of the dollar and real interest rates is being suppressed
3. As a risk asset sensitive to interest rates, BTC should theoretically receive support
Currently, BTC is oscillating between $63,300 and $64,400 (a key technical level after the CPI release). No breakout has appeared after the PPI release, and it seems more like waiting for confirmation from the US stock market opening and US Treasury yields.
👂 Key observation windows:
1. Direction of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield after the U.S. market opens (the most core indicator)
2. Can BTC hold above the 63,300 support level and challenge resistance at 64,400?
3. Tomorrow's SEC crypto regulatory proposal meeting (the first formal rulemaking in the Atkins era), which could be the next BTC catalyst after the PPI
$SNDK
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled 美国官方数据公布，7月PPI环比0%，低于0.2%的市场预期，较6月-0.3%回升0.3个百分点；核心PPI环比0.2%，低于0.3%的预期，与6月持平。整体价格从负增长回到零增长，但未回到市场预估的涨幅，生产端通胀动能仍偏温和。
3月PPI环比0.5%，4月升至1.4%，5月回落至1.1%，6月转为-0.3%，7月虽较6月修复，但仍低于3月至5月水平。核心PPI没有跟随整体项反弹，说明剔除波动项后的价格压力没有加速。
对美联储而言，7月PPI弱于预期，与此前通胀压力缓和的叙事一致。联邦基金利率维持在3.75%的背景下，这组数据可能降低短期内进一步加息的必要性，但整体PPI已从6月负值回到零增长，市场对政策路径的判断仍需继续跟踪后续通胀和就业数据。July PPI data was overall below expectations, especially with the core PPI monthly rate revised upward, making the core PPI monthly rate of 0.2% appear more moderate
Referring to the previous text, here is tonight's best data mix—nominal below 0.1%, core stabilized at 0.2% and below the previous value. Combined with last night's July CPI data, this means CPI + PPI is cooling both consumer and corporate inflation
In market reaction, CME swap rates fell to 32.1%, hitting a new low, but did not break below the 30% safety range, so risks remain
Data is positive for gold but bearish for the dollar. Bond yields across the 1-year, 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year markets have collectively declined, with the 1-year short-term yield down 0.75% and the 2-year yield down 0.5%. Short-term inflationary pressures have eased, and high interest rate pressures have eased
Positive for risk assets, US stocks accelerated their pre-market rally, QQQ was 724 in pre-market trading, the VIX index fell, and US stocks continued their upward trend in the first half of tonight
It should be noted that the CME swap rate currently shows a 32.1% probability of a rate hike in September, meaning the probability of a rate hike in September has not been completely eliminated. Tonight, inflation concerns in the U.S. stock market are very likely to resurge, similar to those in the early hours yesterday.
Next, we need to see whether tomorrow's retail data weakens and whether it further dampens the probability of a September rate hike. If the probability falls below 30%, or even below 25%, then the safety zone will officially begin! #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled down #Lumentum营收翻倍, demand for AI optical communication continued, risk appetite warmed, and WLD strengthened accordingly. Current price 0.3408, up 2.3% in 24 hours, turnover 143 million, funding fee ratio 0.01%, open interest 91.41 million, leverage not overheated.
On the board, the 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, but only 3.07% from the high, with resistance gradually emerging above. The top 10 levels of the order book are buying 974425 and selling 884284, with buying pressure dominating, and short-term momentum remains. Key levels: resistance at 0.3516, support at 0.3091 and 0.2972.
In the medium term, as long as it doesn't break 0.2972, the upward structure remains; If volume rises above 0.3516, the next target should be above 0.3600. Operationally, go long on a pullback near 0.3091, stop loss at 0.2970, target 0.3516; or after breaking 0.3516, light positions and go long, stop loss at 0.3450, target 0.3600.
Main risks: AI narrative cooling, sharp market plunge, WLD trapped in selling pressure at high levels, controlling positions.
—— These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. ——
#Lumentum营收翻倍, demand for AI optical communication continues to $WLD