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$SPCX Currently, $SPCX is indeed in a delicate period after a "breakout pullback," but given that $175 is a very strong selling pressure threshold (unlocking trigger price) and nearly 20% upside from the current price (around $146), the probability of a direct breakout and stabilization within the next four trading days is extremely low.
Core logic: Why is $175 considered a "high-voltage line"?
The $175 you mentioned is not just a psychological price; it is SpaceX's "lock-up unlock trigger price." According to the listing agreement:
- Trigger condition: If the stock price closes above $175.50 (i.e., 30% + premium line) for 5 days within any 10 trading days, an additional 10% of the shares will be immediately unlocked.
- Market reaction: Institutions and informed traders are well aware of this. Once the price approaches $175, the market expects a new round of massive selling pressure (similar to early August), triggering early selling. This creates a natural "sell wall" around the $175 area.
Short-term trend analysis: Why are the "odds" not high?
Given the current market structure (August 13), short-term upward momentum is insufficient:
- Technical Perspective: Profit-taking orders
After a short squeeze and surge from August 6 to 7 (with a two-day gain of over 23%), the market accumulated a large amount of short-term profit chips. After rebounding from $108 to $146, there is a strong demand for funds to cash in, which will suppress further gains.
- Fundamentals: The vacuum period after the negative news has been digested
The "earnings report + unlock" dual negative news at the beginning of August has been digested by the market through the logic of "all negative news is exhausted." Unless there are new major positive factors in the short term (such as AI business exceeding expectations or a surge in Starlink users), the stock price lacks a catalyst for an upward rise.
- Time window: 4 days is not enough
A rise from $146 to $175 would require about a 20% increase. Facing clear selling pressure resistance and no major event, the probability of such a level of movement occurring within just four trading days is extremely slim.
Operation suggestion: Execute according to the original plan
Your strategy of "not chasing highs, waiting for a pullback to test the bottom again" is the best risk-reward ratio in the current environment:
1. Avoid short-term selling pressure: Proactively give up on the fish head rally and avoid buying in the "death zone" before $175.
2. Wait for better buying opportunities: A pullback is confirmed to be a healthy trend. If the second dip can stabilize, it will be a safer time to enter.
3. Watch the next time point: If you are optimistic about the long term, you can look to the next time window around August 21 (Day 70 of the position lock expires) to observe whether the selling pressure is absorbed by the market again.🔥 CPI IS OUT — HERE’S WHAT IT MEANS FOR $BTC, $ETH, $SOL & $XAUT
The latest U.S. CPI print delivered a relatively friendly signal for markets.
July headline CPI rose just 0.1% month-on-month, while annual inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5%. Core CPI also cooled to 2.5%, down from 2.6%.
So what does this mean for crypto and gold?
🟠 $BTC — MACRO RELIEF
Softer inflation reduces pressure for an immediate Fed hike and has already helped rate-hike expectations move lower. BTC initially reacted positively, but the move remains sensitive to yields, the dollar and upcoming data.
🔵 $ETH — LIQUIDITY PLAY
Ethereum remains highly sensitive to changes in financial conditions. A cooler inflation path can support risk appetite, but ETH still needs sustained demand and follow-through rather than a one-day CPI reaction.
🟣 $SOL — HIGHER-BETA RESPONSE
SOL can benefit disproportionately if traders move further toward risk assets. But higher beta works both ways: if yields or the dollar rebound, SOL could experience sharper volatility than BTC.
🟡 $XAUT — DIFFERENT CPI GAME
Tokenized gold doesn't depend on the same risk-on liquidity mechanism as crypto. Gold can remain attractive when investors seek protection against inflation, geopolitical uncertainty or currency risk. That makes $XAUT an important counterweight to the crypto trade.
📊 THE BIG PICTURE
CPI was not hot enough to force an immediate hawkish repricing. But inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, meaning the market cannot assume an easy policy pivot.
The next major test is PPI + Fed communication + incoming inflation data.
👉 The key question now isn't simply “Was CPI bullish?”
It's:
“Does softer inflation translate into lower yields, weaker dollar pressure and sustained liquidity flowing into risk assets?”
That will determine whether today's reaction becomes a trend — or just another short-term volatility spike.
#CPI $BTC $ETH $SOL $XAUT
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI Goldman Sachs’ agreement to buy Neos for up to $2.25B is less a directional crypto wager than a bet on packaging volatility. The attraction is a platform with roughly $30B in ETF assets and an options-income model spanning equity-index, Bitcoin and Ether exposure.
My read: as ETF fees compress, distribution and repeatable income design may become stronger differentiators. Monthly payouts can broaden appeal, but investors should weigh that income against surrendered upside and strategy risk. Not advice, just analysis.
#GoldmanBuysNeos$SPCX has rebounded a lot from the bottom these days. When it was around 130, I closed my long position. Personally, I think this level should be considered a short-term high. Why do I say this? This requires understanding the reasons behind this recent increase. —————————————————— I believe this price increase is mainly due to short closing positions. At the initial launch of $SPCX, there were a tremendous number of short positions in the market. Because everyone thinks the price is too high. A company that hasn't yet turned a profit, and a company with a price-to-sales ratio nearly ten times that of Tesla, has no reason not to short the market. According to the data, $SPCX was mainly shorted in late June, when its price was around $155. So I think it's now reached a short-term peak. —————————————————— Let's take another look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract open interest is gradually increasing, while the long-short ratio is gradually decreasing. This indicates that during the $SPCX price rise, there are many short sellers. Because the price of this stock is indeed too high, and the value of the shares about to be unlocked is too high. —————————————————— If you know about Tesla, you can see that its stock price was relatively sluggish in the early days. Why? Due to insufficient production, its stock price truly began to take off thanks to Tesla's factory in Shanghai. TodayFundamental Research Report $CAKE / PancakeSwap (DeFi) $3.20
To get straight to the point: PancakeSwap ($CAKE) has an overall score of 53/100, with a rating focused on narrative over implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
PancakeSwap (token $CAKE), DeFi track. Focusing on BSC DEX leaders. Benchmarking against UNI and SUSHI. Traditional centralized platforms take commissions of 15-40%, with user data not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, settlement requires USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven track, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product launch: protocol layer officially operational, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
On the user side, address MAU is not disclosed, DAU is not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active individuals; concentrated holdings of large addresses overestimate actual user numbers. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy and burn annualized without a burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profits do not equal protocol profits, protocol profits do not equal token holders profit. Code side: 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look at PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, refer to whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level but do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs; for technical integration, see API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. Using NVIDIA GPUs does not mean NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not mean strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (accounting for +3.50% circulating volume), annualized burn buyback no clear buyback or burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some need it, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Let's look at it together with peers (unified caliber, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market cap, PancakeSwap is $3.00B, UNI is undisclosed, SUSHI is undisclosed. In terms of FDV, PancakeSwap is $4.20B, UNI is undisclosed, SUSHI is not disclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, PancakeSwap is $2.00M, UNI is undisclosed, SUSHI is undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, PancakeSwap is undisclosed, UNI is undisclosed, SUSHI is undisclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; some omissions will be supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view at $3.00B at 50-70% of the original price, with neutral range fluctuations; optimistic outlook: revenue doubles, burn is implemented, enterprise clients will enter, and FDV will align with the top P/S. In short: solid fundamentals (score 53/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively expensive relative to fundamentals, expected overdraw, and moderate FDV. Three major risks: short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue reversing to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut, usage collapses). Next, focus on these numbers: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version release. Public data derivation, not investment advice. Core indicator changes by more than 30% result in invalid conclusions.
That's all for the fundamentals; leave the rest to the market.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit⚓️ Hormuz whispers, $BTC listens.
Iran & Oman inching toward a 60-day shipping deal — no ink yet, but $BTC already climbed back to $65K on the vibes alone.
Translation: markets aren't waiting for the signature. They're pricing the outcome before it happens.
Caveat: we've been here before. A "done deal" got denied two weeks ago and oil spiked instead. Nothing's final till tankers actually move.
Watching the next 60 days closely. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI
Source. Yahoo Finance/EIA reportUS July CPI year-on-year 3.4%, core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, both slightly up month-on-month.
Inflation continues to cool down — June CPI was still 3.5%, dropped to 3.4% in July.
The numbers look good, the expectations were very accurate.
But "meeting expectations" means: everyone guessed it.
No surprises, no emotions. No emotions, no market movement.
After the CPI release, CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 45.9% to about 40%. Another data source shows a 48% chance of a hike and 52% chance of no change.
Whichever you trust, the trend is consistent: the risk of a rate hike is decreasing.
A month ago, the market was still debating whether to hike rates in July. Now? A September hike is almost a low-probability event.
But a rate cut? Don’t even think about it.
Inflation is still above 3%, a full 1.4 percentage points away from the Fed’s 2% target. Oil prices are still hovering around $100.
Lower probability of a hike doesn’t mean a rate cut is coming.
After the data release, BTC briefly surged, rebounded about 0.3%, then fell back to fluctuate around $63,400.
0.3%.
You read that right. Nasdaq rose 0.54%. Gold rose. US stocks rose.
Bitcoin? Didn’t move.
Those shouting "If CPI is below expectations, BTC will hit 67,000" are probably still staring blankly at their screens.
"Meeting expectations" has already been priced in by the market.
At the moment the data came out, all the good news was already priced in.
With CPI released, US stocks opened higher and surged, but Bitcoin didn’t rise, it fell.
To put it bluntly: the crypto market’s own liquidity is too weak to even hold up this bit of macro-level good news.
In the past, a good CPI could make BTC rise 5%, 10%. Now? 0.3%.
The market’s appetite for good news is growing. Just "meeting expectations" is no longer enough.
Either you exceed expectations, or don’t give me anything.
"Meeting expectations" in today’s market is roughly equivalent to "no expectations."
63,000 is BTC’s short-term lifeline.
Hold it, and wait for direction in the consolidation.
If it doesn’t hold, downside space opens up.
CPI release is not the end, it’s a midway station.
Next stop: PPI.5. Solana (SOL): Rose slightly by 0.62% in 24 hours, outperforming most mainstream coins. On-chain meme coins and DeFi trading activity remained high, with transaction fees leading to token burns. Hardware and smartphone projects continue to advance, and the market looks forward to further ecosystem expansion. Risks: Multiple network failures in history, with competing public chains continuously diverting users, coin prices highly linked to the crypto market, and a cliff-like drop during black swan events. Regulatory risks cannot be ignored.OKB rose to +9.27% in 24 hours, but the $BTC is still stuck at 63,500 yuan—this kind of "big market sleeping, single coin hype" split is not an isolated case today.
Here's a framework you can directly copy: when a coin rises independently of BTC, focus on three things first.
First, whether the volume is genuine—fake bullish candles formed by hammering are the most frustrating; Second, whether there is a solid catalyst for a platform or ecosystem; Third, whether it can hold its previous high after the rally.
If the three points are not complete, it's mostly self-rescue or prelude to selling the goods—don't let a single thread trick you into it.
OKB's move is more like "early capital grabbing in anticipation of news"—don't bet your assets before an official announcement—platform token benefits often "peak as soon as they are announced"—it's an old script.
Zooming in on today's market: only a few are alive. OKB +9%, but UNI is still down by -6.33%, and the few stocks mapped by the US stock market are also quietly climbing.
Volume has recovered by half (from -94% to -53%), so liquidity is returning, but the "locally hot, overall cool" test your hands the most.
If you really want to participate in this independent market, first ask yourself: Can it stand its ground outside the broader market's logic? If it can't hold up, it's just helping others carry the sedan chair.
Do you think this round of independent OKB rally is genuine good news or is it a self-rescue by the big players? Comment section about your judgment, just throwing out the word "rise" without thinking.
Crypto assets carry high risk; the above is purely personal nonsense and does not constitute investment advice.
#OKX星球 $BTC $OKB #平台币异动 #板块轮动🚨 $BTC MAY BE FLASHING A POTENTIAL CYCLE-BOTTOM SIGNAL. 👀
An interesting on-chain pattern is emerging: the cost basis of 3–6 month holders has fallen below that of the 1–2 year holder cohort.
Similar structures appeared around major market bottoms in 2015, 2019 and 2022.
That doesn’t confirm that a bottom is already in, but it could indicate a potential shift from distribution toward accumulation.
⏳ The important part: $BTC may still need months of consolidation before a major trend reversal becomes clear.
For now, I’m watching for:
🔹 Continued accumulation
🔹 Stronger market structure
🔹 Confirmation from price and volume
If history rhymes again, this could become a very important signal later in the cycle. 👀
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch 5. 电能实业：绩后上涨3.05%，中期财报业绩表现稳健，公用事业现金流稳定，高股息属性吸引避险资金。港股市场震荡环境下，高股息防御板块受到资金青睐。业务稳健，波动相比科技股更小。风险：公用事业增长天花板明显，长期成长性有限，利率上行环境下，高股息资产估值会承压，股价很难出现爆发式上涨，适合稳健配置思路，不适合短线博弈。Musk's mouth really holds half the sky. #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
SpaceX went from $104 to $146—a 40% increase—all thanks to his 29-minute meeting. Whether this person is worth that price is another matter, but the market truly believes it.
His exact words were: "AI revenue in September exceeded the total of all business operations. It's not possible, but definitely." ”
As soon as he said this, the stock price jumped 9.7% that day, reaching a peak of 149. In the past two weeks, it rebounded 35% from its low, and short positions were directly reduced from 34% to 11%. S3 people put it bluntly: those who wanted to short ran out of money.
But think calmly, how much is this company really worth?
Q2 revenue was 7.8 billion, which sounds decent. Capital expenditure was 18.3 billion, and the amount spent was two and a half times what it earned. Starlink is indeed making money—4.3 billion in revenue, 1.66 billion in operating profit. But AI is burning money, rockets are burning money, Starship is burning money. Starlink's meager profits can't even fill the hole.
Musk said AI will account for 99% of the company's valuation in five years. He said by year-end computing power will expand from 1.4 GW to 10 GW, corresponding to annual revenue of 300 to 500 billion.
The big pie is being drawn. The problem is, Starship's 13th test flight just ended, and even he himself said "spacecraft recovery is not optimistic." Starship's milestone hasn't been fulfilled yet, and the stock price has already filled the optimistic expectations.
There are still five batches of restricted shares to be unlocked. Two batches on August 21 and September, and two batches in October, each with about 7% of the free float. With so many stocks, how the price moves is up to you.
What's the current market situation:
The 146 level has been stuck for two days. If 149 can't break through, someone is buying below 140. 135 is the issue price; if it breaks, it's 125-130. Morningstar released a report last week, with the headline just one sentence: "The rally has lost its fundamentals." ”
For trading:
· Pullback to 140-142, then add a point, stop loss at 137, target 148-149
· If you can't hold near 149, go short, stop loss at 152, target 140
· Don't bottom-fish if it breaks 135; wait until 125-130 before talking
How much is Musk's mouth worth? The market has already expressed a 40% gain. But the rebound fueled by his talk often falls hard. Plus, with the wave of banned stocks coming one after another, I personally think it's much more comfortable to buy below 140 than to chase at 149.3. Biosystems Engineering Equity: surged 24.56%, stock price hits a 52-week high. It belongs to the Hong Kong small-cap biotech theme, with short-term rebound in biotechnology and short-term speculative capital driving the market. Overall trading volume is not large, with strong chip game characteristics. Risk: The company's business has not yet been commercialized on a large scale, earnings delivery timing is uncertain, small-cap stocks have poor liquidity, large slippage in buying and selling, and the market relies entirely on thematic sentiment. Once funds withdraw, the pullback can be large, resulting in high risk.The best at making promises, Massan, is back again.
Musk's exact words: "Not possible, definitely—our AI revenue will surpass all other $SPCX revenue around September." ”
As soon as he finished speaking, SpaceX's stock price surged 9.7% in a single day, closing at $146.15, with intraday spikes to $149. Since the low point on August 5, it has rebounded 35%.
But guess what? $146, just 8% above the IPO price of $135. Two weeks ago, the lowest price dropped to $104.83.
There are only two reasons for the sharp rise.
First, Musk painted a huge picture.
August 12th all-hands meeting, 29 minutes. Musk said three things:
AI revenue next month will surpass the combined total of rockets + Starlink + spacecraft. In five years, AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's valuation, and the company's value will be astronomical. By the end of next year, AI computing power will expand from 1.4 GW to 10 GW, corresponding to annual revenue of 300 to 500 billion USD.
The market listened. Investors began to view SpaceX through the pricing logic of a "computing infrastructure company," rather than a rocket company.
Second, the bears were exposed.
Last week, short positions peaked at 34%. Data from S3 Partners shows that only 11% remains. Short sellers are forced to close their positions, and buying directly pushes prices upward. The S3 managing director quoted: "There is no more ammunition left for shorting." ”
But don't be fooled by the rally—fundamentals simply can't support the $146 stock price.
Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-on-year. Sounds good, right? Capital expenditure $18.369 billion—more than twice what was earned. Starlink is making money ($4.29 billion in revenue, $1.66 billion in operating profit), AI is burning money, rockets are burning money, Starship is burning money.
Citi set a target price of $200. Morgan Stanley benchmarked $300, optimistic $600. Sounds beautiful? The premise is that all Starship milestones are met—and after Starship's 13th test flight, Musk himself said, "Spacecraft recovery isn't very optimistic."
Moreover, there are five batches of restricted shares to be unlocked. One batch on August 21, two batches in September, and two batches in October. Each batch accounts for about 7% of the shares. The circulation is expanding, and the short position is declining. Part of the reason is that the denominator has increased—not that all the bears have left, but that there are more stocks.
Key locations:
· 146-149: Currently in the fluctuating range, 149 is the intraday high on Wednesday
· 135: IPO offering price, also a psychological threshold
· 104-108: The August 5th low area; a break below this would be a complete collapse
What happens next:
The 146 level is quite awkward. Going up, 149 is the short-term ceiling; if it breaks out, target 155-160. Downward, 140 is the first support; if it breaks, look for 135. If 135 is broken again, below is 125-130.
Morningstar has already warned: "The rally has lost its fundamentals." This statement is quite straightforward.
Order trading approach:
· Pullback to 140-142 for stability, light position and long position, stop loss at 137, target 148-149, and a breakout target at 155
· Rebound 148-149 under pressure, light position to try shorting, stop loss at 152, target 142-143
· If 135 is broken, don't reach for the throwing knife; wait until 125-130 before talking
In short: Musk painted a dream, and the market ate first. But whether the cake can be cooked is another matter. A bear market being exposed doesn't mean the bulls can win—the restricted stocks are still on the way, fundamentals can't hold up valuations, and rhetorical rhetoric often hits hardest. #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Looking at BTC on the evening of August 13, I will focus on exchange balances rather than just the fluctuation around $63,000.
CoinGlass's page that evening showed that major exchanges held about 2.4786 million BTC, down about 715 in 24 hours and 4,526 in 7 days; CryptoQuant QuickTake mentioned that Binance's BTC reserves rose to about 666,000 on August 11, the highest since about 659,000 on June 3. OKX at 19:32 showed BTC-USDT at about $63,428, with a 24-hour range of 63,309-64,497; Binance was also at about $63,430, down 1.22% in 24h.
This is not a one-sided signal, but more like 'slow outflow of total volume, with leading platforms partially replenishing.' It indicates that selling pressure and custody preferences are being redistributed. If the price remains stuck below 64,500 and exchange balances slow down, short-term volatility is likely to turn into a market for digestion.
Do you care more about the decline in total exchange balances or the rebound of reserves on a single platform? Is this structure a support for BTC, or a risk warning? #BTC #鏈上數據 #加密市場$PLUME
Brothers, don't go long. This coin just launched a spot trading competition next door. I participated in the previous sessions, and every time there's an event, the price is always at a high level, but spot trading is only possible. Why are so many events always at high levels? So hard to guess
$ALLO
This is an event released yesterday afternoon. Just a few minutes after it launched, the coin price plummeted. Everyone should have noticed, whether it's the platform cooperating with the market makers to harvest or not, we have so many coins to play, so don't take that risk at all!
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool down#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession, #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% 🚨 Crypto Valuations Are Starting to Shift Toward Revenue
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the crypto market is gradually moving toward a new valuation framework — one increasingly tied to real protocol revenue and value returned to token holders.
More projects are now finding ways to direct protocol income back to their communities through mechanisms such as token buybacks and burns.
One standout example is Hyperliquid.
The protocol generated more than $800M in revenue last year, with nearly 99% of fee income reportedly used for $HYPE buybacks and burns.
Other major protocols, including Uniswap, Aave and Solana, are also exploring or developing models that connect token value more directly to protocol revenue.
💡 Why does this matter?
If more crypto projects successfully capture and distribute real economic value, token valuations could gradually start looking more like traditional equity and fixed-income markets, rather than being driven primarily by speculation and narratives.
The next phase of crypto may be less about “What’s the story?” and more about:
“How much revenue does the protocol generate, and how much of that value reaches the token?” 👀
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch $SIVE 宣布与 SemiNex 达成 340 万美元开发合作协议
双方将重点聚焦于 CPO（共封装光学）、DFB 激光器阵列及光放大器技术的研发。项目计划于 2027 年下半年实现早期生产，这一时间点与 CPO 早期产能扩充的预期节奏相吻合。
起初，考虑到双方产品线存在重叠，且 SemiNex 仅是一家规模较小的 B 轮融资企业，这一合作看似反常。然而，这让人联想到 $SPCX 与 Cursor 之间那种“先行合作、降低风险”的模式（尽管此次信号不如前者明确）。看来，Sivers 必定是在 SemiNex 身上发掘到了某种独特的价值点$ETH Yesterday it managed to turn positive despite pressure, but today it dropped 2 points to $1876. The market previously said funds were diverting to knockoffs, but for now, the market couldn't hold up, with $SOL down 1.6%, $XRP down 1.75%, $DOGE down 2.82%. The collective silence of knockoffs shows that market synergy has not yet formed. Those who thought $BTC would be the next step to perform with a sideways move probably missed out again this week. One data point is quite solid: the $ETH staking ratio has reached a historic high, with 34.4% of the supply locked on-chain. Locking in shares is indeed a long-term support logic, but in the short term, prices will fall when they should. Fundamental narratives have never been the primary driver in shrinking trading volumes. What really makes people uneasy is on the liquidity side. $USDT's market value has shrunk by $4 billion in two months, and off-exchange capital is genuinely weak in terms of willingness to enter the market. Previous analyses pointed out that this rebound is due to contract funds pulling themselves and selling spots has been absent. The current market trend basically confirms that judgment. The price increases pushed by contracts and not buying spot positions result in repeated insertion and back-and-forth trading, wearing down the patience of bulls. $BTC Short-term resistance is still at $64,400, with support at $63,200. The 4-hour chart has yet to break above the midband, and daily momentum indicators remain in the downward zone. This structure can only wait; before choosing a direction, any chasing or selling losses is a fee for the market. For the rest of the week, holding the lower edge without breaking is already considered strong; breaking below means another round of downward testingLet's start with the most real market risks:
$LIT The project wallet suddenly moved late at night, transferring out 1.87 million tokens at once, equivalent to a market value of 4.57 million USD. Such a large team transfer would instantly alert any holding user.
The market uniformly blames "routine treasury fund management," but those familiar with crypto know this: these four words are the most common buffer tactics used by project teams. Historical cases are clear: many projects initially use "normal fund allocation" to brush off the community, then either officially announce a team reduction or covertly relocate to new addresses and continue to sell in batches.
The biggest core risk at present: unknown attributes of new recipient addresses.
Is it about secure offline cold wallet collection? Or is it directly connected to the exchange's hot wallet ready for cash? As long as it belongs to the exchange chain, the suspicion of trading is maxed out.
Now, let's talk about the most deliberate details of timing:
This large transfer card was quietly completed after 9 p.m. on Wednesday, at a very delicate time.
It is not a monthly settlement, not a quarterly position rebalancing, and is not a routine trading window. Instead, they choose to execute large shifts late at night on a busy weekday.
Deliberately low-key, zero announcements, and zero advance explanations—the community is currently quiet—not because the market is calm, but because most people haven't yet realized the potential selling pressure.
Large team transfers without public announcements are never a good thing. Don't be fooled by the surface sideways move—beneath the surface, undercurrents are already surging and surging. 🌊 Many people saw the price remain unchanged and started muttering, "The market is cold, it's no fun anymore." Honestly, this kind of thinking is quite a pity. We shouldn't just focus on the tiny fluctuations on candlestick charts; instead, we should lower our gaze a bit—nowadays, what is dominating this game is no longer the FOMO of retail investors, but the quiet positioning of institutions with real money. 📊 Just in the past week, net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $8.53 billion. This is no small amount. So why hasn't $BTC exploded yet? Because on one side, funds keep buying; on the other, profit-taking positions are being pocketed, rebalanced, and turnover. These two forces pull at each other, trapping the price within this range. Interestingly, this stalemate itself is a signal. On the macro front, July CPI data was delivered steadily, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have cooled. The authorities are unlikely to change interest rates in the short term, which is essentially a reassurance for risk assets—at least they don't have to be overly anxious. 💊 So my view is simple: at this stage, don't always think about catching a sudden 20% surge; instead, focus on how to manage your positions more solidly. If I were to rebuild a long-term investment portfolio today, I would allocate it like this: $BTC — the first stop for institutional funds, a base position essential; 🧱 $ETH—As long as ETF capital flows continue and on-chain activity is recovering, the potential remains considerable; ⚡ $SOL — One of the most active Layer 1s, when liquidity spills over from Bitcoin to a large scale🚨 $SOL MAY BE ON THE VERGE OF A BULLISH MA CROSSOVER
After underperforming last month under the pressure of a bearish moving-average setup, $SOL is now showing signs of a potential shift back toward bullish momentum.
The upcoming MA crossover could mark an important change in short-term market sentiment and would be a positive development for $SOL holders if the signal is confirmed.
For now, the key is whether the crossover holds and price can follow through with sustained momentum. 👀#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch When I opened the $SPCX short at 116.94 with 75x leverage, the thesis was simple: I expected a pullback.
Instead, price kept grinding higher with almost no meaningful retracement:
116 → 139 → 147 → 149.47
Today, $SPCX reached a high of 149.47 and is currently around 146.92, leaving the short with a floating loss of more than 300 U.
At the same time, I was running a 10x long grid strategy on $SPCX between 100 and 250, with an average price of 134.31, 80 grid orders, and only 18 U of capital.
That grid has generated roughly 7.8 U, while the short has lost 300+ U.
On paper, holding opposing strategies on the same asset might look like hedging.
In reality, it feels more like fighting against myself. 😅
Meanwhile, $OKB has continued its strong move, climbing roughly 8% from 94 to 105 on solid volume.
Major coins are also continuing to grind higher, but for now, I’m staying on the sidelines.
$TRUST also jumped around 14%, moving from 0.05 to 0.063, despite only around 3.92M U in trading volume.
These small-cap pumps can look extremely tempting, but chasing after a move has already happened can easily turn you into someone else’s exit liquidity.
Sometimes the smartest trade is simply not chasing.
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch $APR This demon coin shows no sign of dropping at all!!
Currently, the market is oscillating at a high level and shaking out, accumulating shares sideways to observe the proportion of chips
On-chain main funds keep flowing in, showing no sign of wanting to sell. Many KOLs are continuously increasing their APR. Note that contracts are now marked as mintable and upgradeable, meaning total supply will increase
Plus, the top ten addresses hold 83.49% of the shares, so there's always a risk of sell-off
You can wait and see for the market to emerge before making a move!!
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled $ETH CPI, SEC, and Hormuz: The Three Forces Shaping the Crypto Market
The crypto market is no longer driven solely by price charts. Three major narratives are simultaneously driving market development: U.S. CPI, SEC policy, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The US July CPI sent positive signals. Overall inflation fell to 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. These data eased the pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain an aggressive tightening stance and kept hopes for accommodative monetary policy.
But the risks have not disappeared.
In Washington, the CLARITY Act has been postponed to September, while the SEC continues to advance its crypto regulatory agenda. These changes may bring greater clarity to digital assets, but uncertainty remains as the framework evolves.
Next is Hormuz.
US-Iran negotiations remain difficult, and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz keep the energy market on alert. Continued escalation could push up oil prices and inflation, increase pressure on the Federal Reserve, and pose challenges to risk assets.
That's why my watchlist doesn't just focus on which token is rising the fastest.
$BTC remains a key indicator of liquidity and institutional risk appetite.
$ETH is important because funds are shifting toward large-cap cryptocurrencies and the broader Ethereum ecosystem.
$SOL represents higher beta exposure and remains a key indicator of Layer-1 asset risk appetite.
$HYPE is worth watching because Hyperliquid continues to demonstrate strong activity and the growing importance of on-chain derivatives.
$OKB As the native token connecting the OKX ecosystem and X Layer, it remains strategically important.
The bigger picture is clear: CPI can influence Fed expectations, the SEC can reshape crypto regulation, and Hormuz can decide whether inflation risks return.
Rather than focusing on green and red candles, focus on liquidity, Fed expectations, institutional cash flows, SEC policies, and energy risks. These factors could determine the next major moves for $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $HYPE, and $OKB.
If you find this helpful, feel free to follow me for the next market update.
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#SECActsAsCLARITYWaits
#HormuzPressureRises
$BTC🚀 Musk Spoke — And $SPCX Took Off
As soon as Musk made his comments today, $SPCX surged, reaching an intraday high of 149.6 and closing at 146.15, up 9.65%.
From the recent low, the stock has now climbed nearly 40%. I exited my long position far too early, and honestly, I’m regretting it now.
At an all-hands meeting, Musk reportedly said that AI revenue could surpass all other SpaceX businesses as soon as next month.
He also outlined an ambitious target of reaching 10 GW of AI computing capacity by the end of next year.
The bigger implication is even more striking:
Musk believes AI could eventually account for 99% of SpaceX’s value within five years.
That potentially changes the entire valuation narrative.
SpaceX may no longer be viewed simply as a space company. The market could increasingly value it as a combination of space infrastructure + AI computing infrastructure.
When the underlying valuation story changes, the market’s pricing model can change with it.
But there’s another side to the story. 👀
In Q2, capital expenditure reportedly reached 18.37B, with approximately 15.8B directed toward AI infrastructure, while revenue was only around 7.8B.
That means spending is running at roughly 2.35× quarterly revenue.
The opportunity may be enormous, but so is the capital burn.
Meanwhile, the storage sector also caught a strong bid:
🔹 SK Hynix: +9%+
🔹 SanDisk: +5.76%
🔹 Micron: nearly +5%
AI computing expansion requires more than GPUs. It also drives demand for memory, storage, networking and optical infrastructure, creating a broader supply-chain repricing.
SanDisk also held its Investor Day today, with the market watching closely for management’s roadmap around AI-driven storage demand.
The bigger theme is becoming increasingly clear:
AI infrastructure is being repriced from chips → storage → networking → computing power.
And the entire ecosystem could benefit if this investment cycle continues.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $XAU
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch Strategy: Reduce BTC holdings: proactively clear out and avoid devastating passive risks
Many people, seeing Strategy's continuous $BTC sell-off, reacted immediately with big players fleeing and the market under pressure. But from another perspective, this round of orderly selling is actually defusing a ticking time bomb hanging over the entire market.
Strategy has recently continued to reduce its holdings, selling a total of 1,690 $BTC in the second week, cashing out about $109 million, with the funds mainly used for preferred share buybacks. Combined with the disposal of common shares, the company's US dollar cash reserves expanded to $4.65 billion.
Many people only see the act of "selling coins" but overlook the underlying risk hedging logic:
First, convert passive liquidation in future extreme scenarios into controllable active sell-offs at a controllable pace. Rather than waiting for a crisis to break out and dumping at any cost, it's better to cash out your shares in batches in a relatively stable market environment.
Second, the huge cash reserves can cover dividends and interest expenses, providing the company with a solid financial buffer and enhancing risk resistance.
Third, repurchase discounted preferred shares to effectively reduce high-cost liabilities and optimize the overall capital structure.
Fourth, the company still retains common stock financing channels, indicating that cash flow sources are not entirely dependent on Bitcoin's price fluctuations.
From a market perspective, Strategy is the largest BTC holder in the market and is itself a potential risk source that cannot be ignored in the crypto market. There is a very counterintuitive logic here: long-term pain is always better than short-term pain.
Partial reductions are not good news, but they are "controllable negative news." Selling coins is bound to happen sooner or later. The real danger is not selling slowly now, but when a debt crisis erupts one day and you are forced to liquidate on a massive scale at any cost. Once passive liquidation is triggered, a massive influx of BTC floods the market, causing a cliff-like drop in coin prices and becoming one of the most destructive black swan events in crypto history.
Of course, we must also view it objectively: actively reducing holdings only reduces extreme destructive risks, not completely eliminating selling pressure. Short-term continued selling will still suppress market sentiment, so it is necessary to keep tracking changes in holdings and cash and debt situations, rather than simply interpreting negative factors as fully realized. $BTC $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地, Expectations for September rate hikes cool down #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another $CAP 手上持币再多，没有流动性都是空话，想拉上去出货呢，手头本钱又不够，只有拉一下砸一下，做做T挣钱。让你直接砸盘套现呢，你又舍不得筹码。一直横盘，成交量腰斩，人气完全耗没了，后面你的筹码又出给谁呢$XIAOMI USDT Perp is showing weakness, trading near 3.344 on 08/12/2026 with a decline of -0.18%. The drop is relatively small, but the red move indicates that sellers currently have a slight advantage. The important part is what happens next. If the price continues losing ground and volume increases, bearish momentum could become stronger. However, if buyers defend the current area and push price back upward, this decline could turn into a short-term recovery setup. Traders watching XIAOMIUSDT should pay close attention to support and resistance rather than reacting to the percentage change alone. Perpetual markets can shift direction quickly, especially when volume suddenly enters. Right now, XIAOMIUSDT looks like a market waiting for confirmation. A decisive move from the current zone could provide the next major signal, making this pair worth watching closely for the next volatility expansion.
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound #SECActsAsCLARITYWaits #AIInfraFundingDiverges 🦅The market truth after CPI is implemented: the macro environment warms up≠ market starts automatically
With the July CPI data settled, this data did not reveal unexpectedly strong inflation, temporarily easing the market's anxiety. But this is only the first step in breaking through. $BTC to achieve a decent rebound, relying solely on macro expectations is far from enough. The absence of incremental funds remains the biggest challenge facing the market.
Overall CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, and core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year, all within market expectations. With inflation continuing to ease, the market immediately lowered the possibility of a September rate hike, US Treasury yields retreated, the US dollar index weakened in sync, and risk assets gained a brief breathing room. Many investors, seeing the data come in, immediately concluded that a new round of rally had begun. Here, it is important to remain clear-headed: the fading of macro negative factors only removes the shackles suppressing the market, not the proactive spur of a new bull market.
The performance of funds after the data is realized is even more worth our careful consideration. On August 12, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net outflow of $61.1 million. Although ETH ETFs continued to flow in, their scale was only $7.4 million, showing very weak momentum.
Lifting macro constraints can only improve asset valuation environments, but cannot create a large number of new buying out of thin air. Even if the external environment becomes more favorable, if institutional funds continue to wait and see or exit, it will still be difficult for the market to open upward space.
Whether the market can go further depends on monitoring three core signals simultaneously—none of which can be missing.
First, whether U.S. Treasury yields can maintain a downward trend, and expectations for liquidity easing cannot be repeatedly wavered;
Second, spot ETF funds have shifted from outflows back to sustained net inflows, with institutions bringing real money into the market;
Third, $BTC leverage the favorable environment to release effective trading volume and break through the key resistance level above.
Here's a very realistic logic in the market: when good news has materialized but the price still can't break upward, this is often a dangerous signal, indicating a large amount of existing selling pressure has accumulated above. As soon as the price rises even slightly, it triggers concentrated selling of uneven and profit-taking positions.
CPI is more like a key—it just opens the door, but how high the market can go inside the door is ultimately decided by the capital. With the door open, if off-exchange capital is unwilling to step in, no matter how good the macro expectations, they can only remain at the level of expectations and rarely turn into real upward trends. In future operations, you can't blindly go long solely on the positive side of CPI; you should use ETF capital flow and trading volume as the most important indicators. #7月CPI平稳落地, September rate hike expectations cool #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession; #芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
Just saw Elon Musk's speech at the SpaceX all-hands meeting, and honestly, it left me baffled. A rocket-building company, and 99% of its valuation five years from now comes from AI? Rockets, Starlink, and Dragon spacecraft combined only account for 1%? This logic is exactly like when people said "Tesla is an AI company," but this time it’s even wilder—rockets have become a side business.
Let me highlight a few points that caught my attention.
First, the timeline is very strict. Elon’s exact words were, "Not maybe, definitely—AI revenue will surpass all other SpaceX business revenue by September." Note the wording is "definitely," not "expected" or "hope." Q2 AI revenue was $2.6 billion, a quarter-over-quarter growth of 213% and year-over-year growth of 247%, which is indeed staggering. If it really surpasses in September, SpaceX’s valuation logic will have to be completely rewritten—the market will price it using AI company P/E ratios, not aerospace company metrics.
Second, the computing power target is outrageously aggressive. By the end of next year, AI computing power is expected to reach 10 gigawatts, while it’s only 1.4 gigawatts now. Elon did the math: each watt is worth $30 to $50, so 10 gigawatts corresponds to annual revenue of $300 billion to $500 billion. What does that mean? This figure exceeds the annual GDP of many countries. Moreover, training will stay on the ground, inference will move to space, powered by solar energy—this integrated earth-space AI computing system concept sounds quite sci-fi, but considering SpaceX’s Starlink and Starship progress, it doesn’t seem entirely pie-in-the-sky.
Third, Elon compares AI to a "super genius child." He said humans will ultimately lose control of AI but can shape its values during early development. SpaceX employees are the "parents" of this AI. Hearing this from a rocket builder has a bit of a philosophical flavor, but considering Grok is already integrated into SpaceX’s business, it’s not entirely empty talk.
Back to our circle.
The AI sector has recently fragmented sharply; projects like Dragon are holding onto TAO, RNDR, and funding, but most AI clones are steadily declining. FET is just above $0.17 today, far from its all-time high of $3.45; WLD is hovering around $0.3; the entire AI sector’s market cap is only in the tens of billions of dollars.
Regarding SpaceX, in the short term, the catalyst effect on AI tokens might be limited—after all, it’s a US stock, separated from our ERC-20 tokens by a layer. But in the mid to long term, Elon’s move adds fuel to the "AI + infrastructure" narrative. The problem is, there are too many AI projects, and very few will truly succeed, somewhat like the internet bubble days—right direction, but only a handful survive.
Ultimately, Elon’s skill at painting a vision is truly unique—he can paint the vision all the way to outer space and casually tell you rockets are just the delivery tools. But no matter how big the pie is, it depends on whether you can actually get a piece. Whether SpaceX’s AI revenue will surpass others in September, and whether 10 gigawatts of computing power can be realized by the end of next year—these are the hard metrics.
Brothers, what do you think about this? Is it a real restructuring of valuation logic, or just another round of narrative-driven hype? Those holding AI sector tokens in their portfolio, come chat in the comments.
PS: Purely my personal rambling, DYOR, don’t ask if I bought in or not—if you ask, it means I’m stuck in a position.美国7月CPI同比3.4%、核心CPI同比2.5%，环比均小幅上涨。$ETH
通胀连续降温——6月CPI还是3.5%，7月降到3.4%。
数字很漂亮，预期很精准。
但“符合预期”的意思就是：所有人都猜到了。
没有意外，就没有情绪。没有情绪，就没有行情。
CPI公布后，CME FedWatch显示9月加息概率从45.9%降至40%左右。另一个数据源显示加息概率48%、维持不变52%。
不管信哪个，趋势是一致的：加息风险在下降。
一个月前，市场还在讨论7月要不要加息。现在呢？9月加息已经快变成小概率事件了。
但降息？想都别想。
通胀还在3%以上，离美联储2%的目标差了整整1.4个百分点。油价还在100美元附近晃悠。
加息概率降了，不等于降息要来了。
数据公布后，BTC短暂冲高，反弹约0.3%，然后回落至63,400美元附近震荡。
0.3%。
你没看错。纳斯达克涨了0.54%。黄金涨了。美股涨了。
比特币呢？动都没动。
那些喊着“CPI低于预期就冲67,000”的人，现在大概还在盯盘发呆。
“符合预期”已经被市场提前定价了。
数据出来那一刻，利好就出尽了。
CPI落地，美股直接高开往上冲，结果比特币不涨反跌。
说白了就一句话：币圈自身的资金面太弱了，连宏观层面的这点利好都撑不住。
以前，一份好CPI能让BTC涨5%、10%。现在呢？0.3%。
市场对好消息的胃口越来越大了。光“符合预期”已经喂不饱了。
你要么给我超预期，要么别给我。
“符合预期”在现在的市场里，约等于“没有预期”。
63,000是BTC的短期生命线。
守住了，震荡等方向。
守不住，下方空间打开。
CPI落地不是终点，是中途站。
下一站：PPI。#芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22% #高盛收购Neos，加密ETF转向收益竞争 $BTC $APR U.S. inflation has finally cooled, but the Federal Reserve has not obtained a "pass to cut rates immediately."
After the July CPI was released, the market's first reaction was relief. Data shows that the U.S. CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year in July, and core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, both in line with expectations. Inflation continued to decline, easing the pressure to keep tightening policy and making the September policy meeting the focus of capital once again
But what truly matters is not the CPI figure itself, but that it changes the pace of the Fed's next decisions.
Previously, the market worried that if inflation rebounded again, the Fed might be forced to maintain high interest rates or even reconsider raising rates. The latest data at least proves that price pressures have not worsened further.
However, inflation is still significantly far from the Fed's target.
Although the core CPI of 2.5% continues to decline, it remains above the long-term target of 2%. At the same time, some price pressures persist, especially in energy, commodities, and certain services sectors, which is why the Fed is reluctant to issue strong easing signals.
So now, the focus of market trading has shifted from "whether inflation will get out of control" to "when will the Fed start adjusting policy?"
This is also why after the CPI release, fluctuations occurred in the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and risk assets.
Rising expectations for rate cuts will reduce real interest rate pressure, supporting gold, tech stocks, and high-valuation assets. However, if subsequent data again shows sticky inflation, the Fed may remain cautious
My view is that the biggest highlight of the September meeting may not be a simple rate hike or cut, but rather internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future policy direction.
The current environment is quite unique:
There are signs of slowing on the employment side, but inflation has not completely disappeared.
If high interest rates continue, economic pressure may increase; If easing is shifted too early, inflation may fluctuate again.
This means that in the coming months, the Fed will rely more on data rather than giving a clear course in advance.
The logic for assets is also changing.
In the past, the market mainly bet that "rate cuts will come and all assets will rise."
But the next step may not be so simple.
The real beneficiaries may be those whose profitability has been proven and cash flow is more stable, rather than all high-valuation themes rising together.
Gold's recent strength is essentially due to policy shifts and uncertainty in trading; Tech stocks are rising, needing to continue proving that AI investments can turn into profits; Crypto assets pay more attention to changes in the liquidity environment.
The July CPI gave the market some breathing room, but it did not end this game.
What will truly determine the direction next will be employment data, PPI, and the attitude of Federal Reserve officials.
Rate cut expectations can drive market trends, but ultimately, the long-term trend will be determined by whether the economy can withstand the new policy cycle.
$OKB $DOS $GRVT
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled Pure handwritten copying, not AI
The most honest part of the AI infrastructure earnings relay isn't the story, but the divergence. $NVDA rose to $224.09, about 3% for the day; But Broadcom, on the same supply chain, stopped near $416.05, barely moving. Capital is willing to chase the strongest, but there's no indiscriminate promotion.
QQQ rose 0.73% over the same period, but the macro situation has not yet reached RISK OFF. Nvidia's data center revenue still has a year-on-year growth rate of 66%. Both event and price lines are moving in the same direction, enough to gain a small advantage, not enough to hype it as a broad-based rally.
Now, small positions are trying to go long, entering in batches at $222–$224, stop-loss at 217.5, target 234; maximum loss per trade is 0.5%, no leverage needed. Breaking below 217.5 means that this round of earnings relay is dominated by leading stocks. Data as of 16:06 Beijing time.$BTC 2026-08-13 Complete timeline, data sources, and regional analysis of Bitcoin negative events
Preface
All information, on-chain metrics, fund flows, security incidents, and macro news in the full text are accurately marked with the exact time of occurrence, location of the incident, information source, and hardcore data, fully restoring the current market situation of multiple negative factors in Bitcoin. All data is as of Beijing time on 2026-08-13.
1. Major Data on Core On-Chain Miners (Official Release on 2026-08-13 16:24)
1. Information source: Overseas on-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant, senior analyst Axel Adler Jr. publicly released research reports, simultaneously included and broadcast by the news platform CoinTime
2. Core measured data (standard 7-day moving average across the network)
- Proportion of miner transaction fee income: 0.71%
- Historical benchmark low: In December 2015, it hit a ten-year low of 0.69%, when Bitcoin's spot price was only $394, at the bottom of a super bear market
- Current total network hash rate: 886 EH/s
- Historical peak hashrate: October 2025, with global mining farms reaching a peak of 1150 EH/s
- Hashrate drawdown: down 23% from peak
- Price Trend: Fell from a peak of $124,700 to the current price of $63,400, a cumulative drop of 49%, nearly halved
3. Industry Status: Since mid-2025, fees will remain below 1% for a long time; Daily on-chain transfers and interactions on the Bitcoin network are sluggish, block space is not contested, and miners' income almost relies on fixed block mining subsidies.
4. Regional reality: Many high-price mining farms in China, Central Asia, and North America can no longer cover electricity and equipment operation costs, leading to mass shutdowns of old mining machines; Mining is a rigid cash flow industry, continuously selling BTC inventory to maintain operations, officially starting the bear market's signature miner capitulation cycle.
2. U.S. Spot ETF Institutional Fund Flight Incident (Data Date: 2026-08-12)
1. Data sources: Overseas fund monitoring platforms Farside, SoSoValue, SEC public fund ledgers
2. Detailed financial data
- On August 12, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a single-day net capital outflow of $61.16 million
- Fidelity's flagship product FBTC saw a large redemption of $46.82 million in a single day
- BlackRock IBIT outflowed $14.3 million as institutional clients actively reduced their Bitcoin risk exposure
3. Event Interpretation: Institutional funds on Wall Street in North America have begun to withdraw, and the core incremental buying momentum of this bull market is waning; On August 13, Bitcoin spot prices hovered between $63,400 and $63,800, with weak upward momentum and weak support from bullish funds.
3. Global Exchange Trading Liquidity Drops to Multi-Year Low (2026-08-13 Market Data)
1. Monitoring platforms: Binance, Bybit, CoinMarketCap spot and contract market trends
2. Trading data
- Perpetual contract trading volume on the two leading crypto platforms has fallen to its lowest level in nearly three years
- Spot trading volume across all platforms has fallen to its lowest point since 2019
3. Market Status: Global retail investors' willingness to enter is low; In an extremely low liquidity environment, even a small amount of selling pressure can cause the coin price to plunge rapidly, greatly increasing the risk of slippage and extreme insertion.
4. Overseas whale addresses and listed companies continue to reduce Bitcoin holdings (August full-month on-chain monitoring)
1. On-chain browser data sources: Etherscan-BTC block explorer, CryptoQuant whale address tracking
2. Two key share reduction events
- A large whale address linked to the US Paxos exchange sold a total of 2,500 BTC in the past two months, equivalent to a market value of $154 million
- US-listed crypto firm Strategy (MSTR) has sold its Bitcoin holdings for four consecutive weeks
3. Signal: Long-term institutions in North America and large positions are continuously sending selling pressure to the secondary market.
5. High-Risk Vulnerability Security Incident in Canada's Coldcard Hardware Wallet (Full Timeline)
1. Source of the vulnerability: Coldcard, a hardware cold wallet under Canada's Coinkite
2. Vulnerability Incubation Duration: This underlying random number defect has been embedded in the firmware since 2021
3. Outbreak Date: 2026-08-03, an overseas security researcher publicly disclosed vulnerabilities, and the incident began to spread across the internet
4. Damaged objective data: Over 7,000 Bitcoin wallet addresses were hacked, more than 1,800 BTC were stolen, and stolen assets worth over 110 million USD
5. Market chain reaction: Cold wallets were originally the mainstream offline storage tool for long-term holders worldwide. After major security vulnerabilities were exposed, many long-term investors panicked over asset security and chose to sell their Bitcoin holdings to hedge risk.
6. Macro Black Swan Event in Japan Rate Hike Expectations (Beijing Time, 2026-08-13)
1. Location of the incident: Senior officials of the Bank of Japan made public statements
2. Event details: Japanese officials signaled to the public that the central bank would start a new round of rate hikes in September; After the news broke, the yen appreciated sharply
3. Global liquidity chain shock: massive yen carry trades in international markets have been forced to unwind; Overseas leveraged institutions sell Bitcoin to repay yen loans, triggering a liquidity pump in the global crypto market
4. US synchronized macro bearish: US Treasury yields have been rising recently, and dollar assets are siphoning global liquidity; Bitcoin spot buying is generally weak, and after industry analysts warned of a breach of key support, the downside target is set at $58,500.
7. US SEC Regulatory Risk Warning (Key Vote Coming August 14)
The SEC will hold a vote on the crypto regulatory bill on August 14, 2026. Regulatory policy uncertainty continues to suppress institutional bullish sentiment, further intensifying market cautious sentiment.
#比特币BIP - 110 forks🚨 US CRYPTO REGULATION UPDATE: CONGRESS STALLS AS THE SEC TAKES THE LEAD
The long-awaited CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) has hit another roadblock.
The bill passed the House and cleared committee, but the full Senate vote was delayed, with the next key date reportedly set for September 15. The setback has dramatically reduced the market’s expectations for passage this year, with Polymarket odds falling from around 82% to 21%.
With Congress moving slowly, the SEC under Chair Paul Atkins is taking a more proactive approach through its proposed regulatory framework.
The major shift?
Instead of relying primarily on enforcement after the fact, the SEC is moving toward clearer rules, pathways and potential exemptions, giving crypto businesses more guidance on how to operate within the regulatory framework.
However, there’s an important caveat.
The August 14 action was only about whether to seek public comments, not the final implementation of new rules. Any formal regulatory changes could still take years, potentially pushing implementation toward 2027 or later.
So the immediate market impact may remain limited.
But the longer-term implication is significant:
Regulatory clarity is gradually moving forward, even if Congress remains stuck.
And from a market perspective, this could favor $BTC over many altcoins.
Bitcoin already has a relatively established regulatory identity, while many altcoins still face uncertainty over whether they could be classified as securities or become targets of future enforcement.
Short term: limited impact.
Long term: potentially bullish for $BTC , while altcoins may continue facing a tougher regulatory environment. 👀
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch ETF funds are flowing back in, bringing the market's attention back to a core issue:
Is this round of crypto market rally a result of short-term sentiment, or is it a repositioning by institutional funds?
After BTC ETFs were approved, the biggest change wasn't a day or two of price increases, but a shift in the capital structure.
Previously, the market was mainly driven by retail investors and crypto-native funds, but now traditional funds are becoming a major force. BTC, as digital gold, remains the preferred choice for institutional allocation; while ETH takes on more of the role of ecosystem and financial infrastructure.
However, ETF inflows do not necessarily mean prices will rise immediately.
A truly major market rally requires sustained capital inflows while aligning with improvements in the macro environment.
If the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle and liquidity is released again, BTC and ETH may see a larger funding window.
What the market is waiting for now is not just buying but a new capital cycle. $BTC $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool down by #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
美国7月CPI同比3.4%、核心CPI2.5%，数据完全符合市场预期。
数据落地后，美联储9月维持利率不变概率升至59.9%；黄金走出先跌后涨行情，$BTC全程窄幅震荡，暂无明确方向。
短端美债收益率回落，但长端利率受财政赤字、期限溢价支撑，长期通胀压力未完全消解。
今晚PPI数据将成为9月美联储政策关键风向标，BTC震荡行情或随数据打破平衡。
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Two storage whales plan to exit before the US stock market open, placing $13.7 million sell orders to close positions. After yesterday's CPI release, the four major storage stocks rebounded collectively. HyperLiquid traders placed sell orders at a higher price of about $42.311 million, exposing the reduction and take-profit plans for the next rally. Specifically: $SNDK quoted at $1346.3 with about $16.364 million in sell orders from the current price above the current price to $1400. Among them, the "King of Storage" starting with 0x0ad9 A 'Reduce Position Only' sell order covering all positions has been placed at $1,392, intending to exit a position of about $5.468 million. $SKHYNIX quoted at $1,107.6. Around $1,200, cumulative sell orders have reached about $18.01 million. It needs to rise about 15.6% from the current price to reach the order. Among the other two stocks, $SKHY has about $5.861 million sell orders near $160 $mu about $2.076 million near $1,000. CPI data came in line with expectations The storage sector (SNDK, SanDisk, SKHX, etc.) saw a rebound. The whale did not choose to sell immediately, but placed limit sell orders at high levels in advance, planning to take profits and exit after the price surges. Total order size is $42.311 million. SNDK (SanDisk): Resistance range $1392-$1400. The whale placed all sell orders at $1392, $5.468 million. There is over ten million sell pressure below 1400, meaning once the price reaches $139When $ETH fell to around $900 in 2022, hardly anyone wanted to talk about crypto anymore. And I don’t even need to mention what sentiment around $BTC looked like.
When $SOL dropped to $8, people were saying, “It’s over.”
The environment back then was far worse than what we’re seeing today. Liquidity was thin, trading activity had dried up, and confidence in the entire crypto ecosystem was extremely low.
But what happened next?
People got exhausted.
They sold, walked away, and stopped paying attention.
Then the market turned.
BTC eventually pushed toward $130K.
ETH broke above $5,000.
And SOL delivered one of the strongest recoveries of the cycle.
That’s how crypto cycles have repeatedly worked.
We saw similar conditions in 2017 and during the COVID-era crash.
The market often creates its biggest opportunities when almost nobody believes in the recovery.
When everyone is optimistic, opportunities become obvious.
When everyone gives up, that’s when the market starts becoming interesting. 👀
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch 🚀 SanDisk SNDK surged dramatically tonight, with its stock price surging to 1360 in one go, nearly 100 points in a single day, showing particularly strong momentum.
The rebound in trading volume at the 1360 level shows strong willingness to take on funds at this level, persistent pessimism in the market, and steadily restoring confidence in long positions.
📅 The core catalyst for this round of rally is anchored at the Investor Day event on August 13.
The biggest weakness in previous financial reports was weak earnings guidance, and the market remained skeptical: is it management conservatively predicting the market, or is demand in the AI storage sector genuinely starting to weaken? Additionally, the details of the $14 billion buyback plan have yet to be disclosed, and these two major mysteries continue to weigh on the stock price.
Funds are positioning early to secure this round of rally, essentially betting on the unexpected positive news released by this investor day, dispelling market concerns.
📊 Looking at the financial reports alone, the fundamentals are very strong: revenue of 8.97 billion, gross margin of 84.6%, earnings per share of 39.25 yuan—almost no major flaws in any data.
After digesting the weak earnings guidance and negative sentiment in just one week, negative sentiment was fully released, and funds regained recognition of the earnings value. This is the core reason for the emergence of buyers at the 1200 price level.
⚠️ The height of this round of rebound can only be seen in two key signals:
First, can the 1200 support be firmly held; Second, whether the investor day can deliver better-than-expected results.
Before these two major signals materialize, they are only defined as a temporary rebound; once the direction is confirmed, market expectations will be raised again. #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool #芯片股领涨, South Korean stocks rebounded over 22% $SNDK $BTC over ten days $BTC 2026-08-13 Miner core data hits a ten-year low, complete data tracing + full analysis of negative logic
1. Basic Information Details, Data Sources, and Accurate Timeline
News release date: August 13, 2026
Data source: CryptoQuant Senior Analyst Axel Adler Jr. Public On-Chain Research Report
All indicators are smoothed using the 7-day moving average across the network to avoid interference from single-day data fluctuations, and are recognized as standard observation standards in the industry.
Core hard data list
1. Bitcoin miner fee revenue share: 0.71%
All-time low reference: In December 2015, it hit a historic low of 0.69%, when Bitcoin's spot price was only $394, at the bottom of a long bear market
2. Current network computing power: 886 EH/s
Hash peak benchmark: October 2025, peak 1150 EH/s
Hashrate drawdown: 23% decline from the peak
3. Price range for this bull market: High at $124,700, current spot price at $63,400
Cumulative decline: 49%, price nearly halved
4. Long-term Trend: Since mid-2025, miners' fee revenue has hovered around 1%, and the Bitcoin network block-space competition has been in a prolonged slump.
2. Indicator Definition: What does the proportion of miners' fees represent?
Miners' overall income is divided into two parts: block reward subsidies and user on-chain transaction fees.
- Higher proportion of fees: On-chain transfers, on-chain interactions, and token trading are highly active, fiercely competing for block resources, and overall market heat is rising;
- Fee share approaching a low of 0.7%-1%: The daily transaction demand of the entire public chain is extremely cold, with no users competing for block space, so miners' income can only rely on fixed block mining subsidies.
This 0.71% is already very close to the extreme 0.69% bottom of the 2015 super bear market, making it a very typical signal at the end of a bear market.
3. Behind the Decline in Computing Power: High-Cost Mining Farms Face a Wave of Large-Scale Shutdowns
1. Hash rate dropped from a peak of 1150 EH/s to 886 EH/s, with 23% of hash rate permanently phased out—not a short-term equipment overhaul;
2. After the coin price nearly halved, direct Bitcoin mining revenue was cut in half;
3. Electricity fees, site rent, mining machine depreciation, and operation and maintenance are rigid daily cash costs;
Low coin prices + extremely low fee income—many high-electricity regions and old machine models can no longer cover operating costs, forcing shutdowns and shutdowns.
4. "Miner surrender" has brought sustained market selling pressure
Miners are the most unique group of long-term rigid sellers in the Bitcoin market:
The mining industry needs to spend cash every day, so mining farms won't hoard coins long-term to survive a bear market.
When profit margins are completely squeezed, miners will continue to sell off their accumulated BTC to raise cash flow and keep the remaining mining machines running.
This stage is the typical cycle of miner capitulation in a bear market, with hash power continuously fleeing and miners' chips flowing into the secondary market, while short selling pressure has not yet been fully released.
5. Resonance Review Based on Today's Multiple Negative Factors (2026-08-13 Market-wide Risk Summary)
1. ETF foreign capital outflow (data as of August 12)
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $61.16 million; Fidelity's FBTC made a large redemption of $46.82 million, BlackRock's institutional clients reduced BTC risk exposure, and overseas incremental funds exited.
2. Market trading liquidity has fallen to a multi-year low
Trading volumes of Binance and Bybit perpetual contracts have fallen to three-year lows; Spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019, liquidity has dried up, and even slight selling pressure can trigger a rapid decline.
3. Leading whale institutions continue to sell off
Paxos-linked whale addresses sold 2,500 BTC in two months; Listed institution Strategy reduced its Bitcoin holdings for four consecutive weeks.
4. Hardware wallet security risks
Years of Coldcard vulnerabilities led to over 7,000 addresses being stolen and 1,800 BTC stolen, causing long-term holders to panic about their assets.
5. Macro Black Swan Risk (August 13)
Japanese senior officials expressed support for a rate hike in September, triggering large-scale global yen carry trade unwindings and overseas institutions selling crypto assets to repay leverage; Rising US Treasury yields continue to siphon market liquidity, weak BTC demand, and after key support levels are breached, the target price is $58,500.
6. Complete cycle logic and objective trading approach
1. Historical cycle comparison: The 2015 fee low corresponds to the bottom of a super bear market, but the bottom does not mean an immediate reversal; the market experienced a long period of bottoming out;
2. Do not blindly buy the dip on the left side at this time: miners are mass-selling and selling shares, and short selling pressure has not yet been cleared. Even if the price has been halved, there is still a risk of accelerated declines;
3. Short-term market logic: Follow the bearish trend, wait for the rebound to exhaust, then observe the resistance level above;
4. Long-term Cyclical Signals: Only when hash rate stabilizes and stabilizes, the proportion of fees recovers, and miners end selling off inventory will the bottom of the bear market be officially established.🔍 What exactly happened to Bitcoin? US stocks didn't fall, but BTC fell without resistance—could it really fall back to 63,000? Even more alarming, if US stocks weaken simultaneously at this time, 60,000 would not be a fantasy. At this position, saying you don't want to buy is a lie, but reaching out means catching the knife; being short and risking missing out means you can only watch helplessly. The most frustrating thing in the market isn't the crash, but this sense of 'can't fall through, can't rise,' and the sense of 'not going up.' 📉 Look at ETH—$1900 broke through instantly, without even a decent struggle. This is no longer a matter of strength in a single coin, but rather a repricing within risk assets. When BTC and ETH weaken simultaneously while US stocks are only trading sideways, funds are not leaving but are changing direction. Gold has risen above $4,400, with visible demand for safe-haven assets—money is moving toward "certainty" rather than rushing toward "consensus." 💡 Interestingly, SanDisk, a storage concept stock, is as hard as iron, almost hitting 1400. Tech bulls still exist, but what they hold onto is the industry logic of "hardware shortage + AI infrastructure," not the token narrative. This shows that capital is extremely selective—they would rather find real supply and demand in traditional technology than bet on sentiment reversals in the crypto market. Storage shortages are a reality, and Bitcoin's "digital gold" story is currently being overshadowed by the true price of gold. 📊 July's CPI met expectations, but the market is more concerned about whether there will be a rate hike in September. During earnings season, the relay of AI infrastructure performance continues, but no matter how good the financial report is, it can't rely solely on leverage and sentiment$BTC In-depth post | Miners' on-chain data has hit a historical low, and selling pressure during the miners' surrender phase has not yet been cleared. Do not blindly buy the dip
Combined with recent ETF capital outflows, sluggish market trading volume, whale sell-offs, and Japan's liquidity black swan raising rate hikes, combined with the widespread weakness of key on-chain indicators in the mining industry, Bitcoin's fundamentals have entered the most agonizing chip selling cycle at the end of the bear market. Below is a complete breakdown of the current situation from industry data, market logic, and trading strategies.
1. Core on-chain miner indicators hit multi-year highs
According to authoritative on-chain monitoring data from CryptoQuant, the current share of miner fee income has dropped to 0.71%, falling back to the lowest level seen in 2015.
The proportion of fees is the most direct indicator of blockchain activity: the more hot on-chain transfers, contract interactions, and NFT transactions are, the higher the block fee income; The proportion of fees is close to zero, meaning the entire Bitcoin network has fallen into dead silence with almost no competition in block space.
Currently, miners' income is only from fixed block mining subsidies, with no additional transaction fee income. The network's hash rate has dropped 23% compared to its peak cycle, which is a very typical signal for high-hash mining farms to be forced to shut down and exit.
From the peak of this bull market at $124,000 to the current price of $63,000, the coin price has nearly halved, and high electricity and equipment operation costs have weighed down a large number of high-cost miners.
2. Analyzing the Short-Selling Logic of 'Miner Surrender'
Miners are the most rigid seller group in the Bitcoin market. Mining is a costly physical industry, requiring daily cash outlays for electricity, premises, and equipment depreciation.
1. On-chain transactions are sluggish, fee income is nearly zero, and miners' income has shrunk sharply;
2. The coin price will be halved, and the purchasing power of Bitcoin generated by mining will be cut in half;
3. High-cost mining machines cannot cover daily expenses and can only be shut down or shut down;
4. To maintain cash flow, miners are selling off their long-held BTC inventory in large quantities.
Currently, this is the typical cycle of miners capitulating in a bear market. Mining is the collective selling of long-term hardcore token holders, creating sustained selling pressure within the market. However, this pressure has often not been fully released and continues to be driven by selling pressure.
3. Combined with the overall bearish market environment, bearish conditions have fully resonated
1. Capital Side: US spot ETFs continue to see large net outflows; institutional investors at BlackRock and Fidelity have reduced their Bitcoin positions, with incremental funds exiting;
2. Trading sentiment: Both spot and contract trading volumes hit multi-year lows, market liquidity dries up, and even small selling orders can drive coin prices sharply;
3. Whale movements: leading whale addresses and listed institutions have reduced their Bitcoin holdings for several consecutive weeks;
4. Macro Risks: Rising expectations of a Japanese interest rate hike, unwinding yen carry trades, and a black swan risk of tightening global liquidity;
5. Security Concern: High-risk vulnerabilities in Coldcard's hardware wallet have been exposed, triggering panic among long-term holders;
6. Underlying Fundamentals: On-chain activity hits rock bottom, miners collectively sell off their chips, and industry mining capacity is being passively cleared.
Multiple layers of negative factors overlap, the market fundamentals have weakened across the board, and the chain of bear market selling pressure is fully formed.
4. Rational Market Trading Approach at the Current Stage
1. Avoid blindly guessing the bottom, and don't easily take down the falling slash
Even though the price has pulled back nearly 50% from its peak and the surface price has shrunk significantly, miners continue to release their holdings, and bear momentum hasn't been exhausted. In a bear market, miners' selling cycles make it very easy for the market to accelerate bottoming, and buying too early can easily get trapped.
2. Overall trading direction should prioritize bearish on rallies
Following the major bearish trend, wait for the short-term rebound to exhaust, then position short positions in the upper resistance range. Every weak rebound is merely a token opportunity for the bears to sell in a new round.
3. Distinguish periodic logic
Short to medium term: miner selling pressure, tightening macro liquidity, institutional capital withdrawal, market remains weak and downward, repeatedly bottoming out;
Long-term: Only when a large number of high-cost mining farms are completely cleared out, the network's hash rate stabilizes and stops falling, and miners exhaust their selling chips will the full signal of the bear market bottom appear.
Summary
Bitcoin is now sending bearish signals across multiple dimensions: macro liquidity, institutional funds, market activity, whale holdings, and the miner supply chain. Miner fees hit a ten-year low and hash rate drops sharply, indicating the mining industry has entered a phase of capitulation and sell-off. As long as miners' inventory remains unsold off, the downside risk in the market will not be completely eliminated.
Go with the flow, avoid bottom-fishing on the left, wait for short positions to be fully cleared, and then assess the opportunity at the cycle bottom.🚨 $BTC MAY BE FLASHING A HISTORIC BOTTOMING SIGNAL
Bitcoin is showing a notable on-chain pattern: the cost basis of 3–6 month holders has fallen below that of the 1–2 year holder cohort.
Interestingly, similar structures appeared around major market bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022.
This could point toward a broader accumulation phase, but history suggests the signal may need time to play out.
📊 Rather than expecting an immediate reversal, $BTC could spend months consolidating and rebuilding momentum before a confirmed trend shift emerges.
The setup is worth watching closely. 👀
— Rehan_X
Facts, Trends & Insights
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch I'm completely bearish $XSPCX:
Now the stock price has surged back to around $146, and the short-term rebound is already strong, but several issues cannot be ignored:
1️⃣ Although Q2 revenue surged 92% year-on-year, quarterly capital expenditure reached $1.84 billion, with about $1.58 billion invested in AI infrastructure. The growth is impressive, but the pace of cash burn is equally outrageous.
2️⃣ The unlocking pressure is not over yet. The first round of unlocking in August has already significantly increased the circulating market shares, and more shares are gradually entering the market later. The higher the stock price, the stronger the motivation for early holders to realize profits.
3️⃣ Valuation is my biggest concern. SpaceX's story is indeed quite attractive, but the market's expectations are already very high. If future growth in AI, Starlink, or commercial space doesn't continue to exceed expectations, valuation compression will be very rapid.
4️⃣ Technically, the recent strong rebound after a sharp drop has now returned to the previous period of heavy trading volume and resistance zones. If there is a high-volume rally and pullback, I tend to view it as the end of the rebound rather than a new main rally. $BICO — BULLS NEED A RECLAIM
BICO has taken heavy selling pressure and is trading near $0.03023. A reclaim of the current zone could start a recovery move.
Buy Zone: $0.02980–$0.03030
TP1: $0.03120
TP2: $0.03250
TP3: $0.03400
Stop Loss: $0.02880
Let's go $BICO
#OKXOrbitTopics .$BTC Multiple overlapping negative factors resonate, deeply analyzing the full set of market risks currently facing Bitcoin
Recently, the Bitcoin market has faced concentrated pressure from five layers of negative factors: macro funds, institutional movements, trading sentiment, asset safety, and market expectations. Coupled with the liquidity black swan caused by Japan's rate hike expectations, multiple negative factors are collectively suppressing the market. Below is a comprehensive analysis of all current risk signals from five dimensions.
1. North American ETF funds continue to flow out, and mainstream institutions begin to withdraw
On August 12, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a large net outflow, with a single-day outflow totaling $61.16 million.
The sell-off of leading institutional products is particularly evident. Fidelity's FB-ETF saw a massive redemption of $46.82 million in a single day, and BlackRock's institutional clients have also actively reduced their Bitcoin holdings.
As the most important source of incremental funds in this bull market, spot ETF funds have shifted from net inflows to continuous outflows, indicating that large overseas funds have started to cash out in batches. The momentum for incremental buying in the market has exhausted, and the core support for bulls is loosening.
2. Market trading activity has fallen to a multi-year low, and market liquidity has shrunk severely
Currently, both the spot and futures market trading volumes have hit multi-year lows.
Perpetual contract trading volumes on leading platforms like Binance and Bybit fell to their lowest levels in three years; Spot trading volumes on major exchanges even dropped to their lowest levels since 2019.
Sluggish trading volume indicates that market sentiment has completely hit rock bottom, retail investors' willingness to enter is low, and on-site funds are reluctant to go long. In a quiet market, even a small amount of selling pressure can cause a sharp drop in coin prices, increasing both the risk of market slippage and market volatility.
3. Whale whales continue to reduce holdings and offload shares, leading institutions have sold shares for four consecutive weeks
Large holding addresses and well-known publicly listed institutions are continuously reducing their Bitcoin holdings.
Whale addresses linked to Paxos sold a total of 2,500 Bitcoins within two months, equivalent to assets worth $154 million; well-known company Strategy has sold BTC holdings for four consecutive cycles.
During bear market cycles, the collective selling of whales often signals mid-term market pressure, with large shares continuously flowing into the secondary market, bringing continuous selling pressure to the market.
4. High-risk vulnerabilities in hardware wallets expose asset security crisis, intensifying market panic
The long-established cold wallet Coldcard has been exposed for a high-risk underlying vulnerability, a security hazard that has been lurking since 2021.
Due to the vulnerability, over 7,000 wallet addresses were compromised, with a total of 1,800 Bitcoins stolen.
Cold wallets are originally the safest choice for long-term investors to store assets. After the underlying security flaws were exposed, long-term holders felt less secure in their holdings. Some users, concerned about asset risks, chose to transfer or sell their Bitcoins, further increasing selling pressure in the market.
5. Tightening macro environment, weak bullish buying, and the downside target has already appeared
Multiple macro and on-chain data together confirm that current Bitcoin market demand is generally weak.
US Treasury yields continue to rise, attracting global capital back into dollar assets and squeezing liquidity in the crypto market; Active buying in the spot market is very sluggish, with large amounts of chips continuously flowing into exchanges, ready to be sold for cash at any time.
Many technical analysts have issued warnings that if the key support level is breached, Bitcoin's next downside target will reach $58,500.
6. Combined with Japan's rate hike black swan, negative news is experiencing resonant impact
Japanese senior officials have publicly expressed support for the central bank's rate hike in September, the yen has appreciated rapidly, and global yen carry trades have begun large-scale unwinding.
Institutions are selling Bitcoin to repay yen leverage, overseas liquidity tightening, and multiple internal negative factors are compounding. The current market is under dual pressure from both domestic and external negative factors.
Comprehensive summary
ETF capital flight, trading volume hitting rock bottom, whales continuing to offload, wallet security risks, tightening macro liquidity, and the black swan risk brought by overseas monetary policies—multiple negative factors have formed a complete bear chain.
In the short term, heavy selling pressure and low trading sentiment will prolong the cycle of bottom-of-the-bottom volatility and grinding; Even if the proportion of profit supply reaches a three-year low and signals of the cycle bottom appear, the market will continue to face repeated pressure under multiple negative factors, and short-term downside risks cannot be ignored.CPI, SEC and Hormuz: Three Forces Shaping Crypto
The crypto market is no longer driven by price charts alone. Three major narratives are moving at once: U.S. CPI, SEC policy and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. July CPI delivered a constructive signal. Headline inflation eased to 3.4% YoY, while core CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY. The data reduced pressure for the Fed to maintain an aggressively restrictive stance, keeping hopes for easier monetary conditions alive.
But the risk has not disappeared.
In Washington, the CLARITY Act has been pushed toward September, while the SEC continues advancing its crypto regulatory agenda. These changes could create greater clarity for digital assets, but uncertainty remains as the framework evolves.
Then comes Hormuz.
U.S.-Iran negotiations remain difficult, while disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets on alert. Prolonged escalation could push oil and inflation higher, complicating the Fed's path and pressuring risk assets.
That is why my watchlist is not simply about which token is moving fastest.
$BTC remains the key gauge of liquidity and institutional risk appetite.
$ETH is important as capital rotates toward large-cap crypto and the broader Ethereum ecosystem.
$SOL represents higher-beta exposure and remains a key indicator of risk appetite across Layer-1 assets.
$HYPE deserves attention as Hyperliquid continues demonstrating strong activity and growing relevance in on-chain derivatives.
$OKB remains strategically important as the native token connected to the OKX ecosystem and X Layer.
The bigger picture is clear: CPI can influence Fed expectations, the SEC can reshape crypto regulation, and Hormuz can determine whether inflation risks return.
Instead of focusing on green or red candles, watch liquidity, Fed expectations, institutional flows, SEC policy and energy risks. These factors could determine the next major move for $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $HYPE and $OKB.
If useful, follow me for the next market update.
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#SECActsAsCLARITYWaits
#HormuzPressureRises
$BTC $BTC In-depth Analysis | The proportion of BTC earnings supply has dropped to 51.4%. Coupled with Japan's rate hike black swan, the market is currently in a phase-of-cycle chip clearing
1. Definition of Core On-Chain Metrics: Supply-in-Profit (Profitable supply).
The proportion of profitable holdings is CryptoQuant's most authoritative on-chain cyclical indicator, used to count the proportion of Bitcoin currently in circulation with holding costs below the spot price and a profitable position across the entire network.
The underlying logic of this indicator is very straightforward: when the token price continues to fall, addresses that entered at high levels fall into floating losses, and the proportion of profitable chips will continue to decline; When more than half of the market holders suffer losses, it means a large market share is trapped, and panic selling reaches its peak.
A golden rule can be established based on years of industry history:
1. Values above 75%, generally profitable in the market, in the mid to late bull market, severe chip bubbles;
2. 50% is the key dividing line between bull and bear; once it approaches this value, the end-stage shakeout of the bear market has already arrived;
3. The 40%-50% range is a landmark range for the ultimate bottom of previous bear markets.
Currently, Bitcoin's profit-driven share is only 51.4%, marking the lowest point in nearly three years, officially entering a period of historic panic selling.
2. Reviewing historical cycles and reassessing indicator bottom patterns
Comparing the complete indicator trend chart from 2019 to 2026, at the bottom of each major bear market, the proportion of profitable chips in all corresponding sectors has reached a low range:
1. The bottom of the 2019 bear market
After the last bull market crash, the lowest profit supply fell to around 45%, with a large number of high-level chips cutting off and exiting, completing swaps, and then the market began a new upward cycle.
2. The March 12, 2020 global liquidity black swan
The pandemic impacted global financial markets, causing Bitcoin to halve in a single day and plunge sharply, quickly hitting a low level. After the extreme panic selling pressure cleared out, Bitcoin entered an epic two-year super bull market.
3. The 2022 FTX exchange collapsed during the bear market
An industry trust crisis erupted, with the coin price dropping below $15,000, profit supply falling below 50%, and most investors online deeply trapped. This is also the starting point of this bull market.
Multiple cycles have already confirmed objective facts: with nearly half of the profit chips in the market, speculators entering at high levels are basically stuck, short-term selling pressure is fully released, and the market is getting closer to the cycle bottom.
3. Macro Black Swan Catalyst: Japan's rate hike expectations accelerate this round of chip shakeout
Today, global financial markets faced a new liquidity headwind. Japanese officials publicly expressed support for the central bank to start a new round of rate hikes in September, causing the yen to appreciate rapidly and sharply, triggering a global wave of yen carry trade unwindings and directly accelerating Bitcoin's downward pressure.
1. As the world's largest low-cost financing currency, the yen has attracted a large number of overseas institutions to borrow yen at zero cost for a long time, then allocate to Bitcoin after converting to US dollars for high returns. Expectations of interest rate hikes drive up borrowing costs, and a stronger yen leads to exchange losses, forcing institutions to sell crypto assets to withdraw yen, resulting in sustained selling;
2. Global stock markets and commodities plunged collectively, with overall market risk appetite declining rapidly. Crypto assets, as the most risk-sensitive category, were the first to bear the impact of liquidity withdrawal;
3. After the price declines under pressure, more high-level positions shift from profit to loss, further reducing the proportion of profitable tokens across the network and accelerating the chip cleanup at the end of the bear market.
4. Interpretation of the technical structure of multi-cycle markets
From the perspective of the short-term market, the 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour K-lines simultaneously weakened, establishing a short-term bearish trend.
Before the Bank of Japan's September policy meeting concludes, rate hike expectations will repeatedly stir market sentiment. Contract leverage unwinding and short-term panic selling pressure will persist, and the market is likely to remain in a state of intense volatility and repeated bottoming.
Short-term negative news has not fully materialized. Even if on-chain indicators reach cycle lows, it does not mean prices will immediately reverse. Bear market bottoms often experience prolonged consolidation and bottoming.
5. Deep Market Logic at the Cyclical Level
1. Short-term risk: The yen liquidity black swan trend, global risk aversion, and contract leverage stamping will still cause significant market volatility, and the bottoming grinding process will continuously wash out short-term traders;
2. Medium-term opportunities: The proportion of profit supply is approaching the 50% threshold, meaning most market chips are already in a loss-making state. The number of chips willing to sell at low levels is shrinking, and downside space continues to shrink;
3. Cycle Nature: Before each bull market starts, negative events and black swan shocks force the vast majority of high-level retail investors to hand over their shares, completing the transfer of tokens from retail investors to long-term institutional addresses—this is the chip swap at the end of a bear market.