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北京时间 8 月 13 日晚，聚焦山寨币的期现套利协议 Neutrl 突然宣布，由于协议储备受到影响，已暂时停止铸币、赎回及其他协议功能。 Neutrl 并未详述所谓的“储备受到影响”到底是因为什么，只是强调此举是在咨询法律顾问后，为维护用户利益并在评估影响期间保持流程有序而采取的措施。Neutrl 还表示，团队将适时为用户提供处理流程说明，有关时间安排及后续步骤的更多信息将在确定后公布。 由于此官宣来的太过突然，且官方没有披露任何有效线索，致使社区情绪快速转向恐慌，各种猜测在社交媒体上持续蔓延。 Neutrl 的定位与独特风险 简单来说，Neutrl 是一个围绕山寨币构建的期现套利协议，你可以把它理解为一个山寨币版本的 Ethena。 具体而言，Neutrl 会在私募市场以折扣价买入锁仓的山寨币，然后用永续合约对冲风险敞口，以捕捉两者之间的价差与资金费率等收益。 之后，Neutrl 会将上述收益打包为链上的结构化产品，并向用户开放存款，以允许用户直接参与其套利策略 —— Neutrl 此前推出的核心产品包括 NLP（Neutrl Liquidity Pool） 等，用户存入资产后，The recent storage-sector rally isn’t purely speculative.
✔ AI demand continues to boost HBM, server memory, and enterprise SSDs. Manufacturers are shifting capacity toward higher-margin products, keeping traditional storage supply relatively tight.
✔ Strong earnings from Hynix and Micron, along with SanDisk’s aggressive long-term targets, have pushed investors to revalue the entire sector.
That said, storage prices are still rising but the pace has slowed from Q1. HBM and server memory remain strong in the medium term, while additional flash capacity could start easing supply pressure by H2 2027.
I shorted $SNDK around 1542, mainly expecting a pullback after the huge rally. But the trend remains strong, with regular-session close around 1528 and after-hours price near 1570 on heavy volume. So I’m treating this as a short-term trade and won’t blindly add.
Key levels:
• 1580–1600: Major resistance
• Below 1520: Short thesis strengthens
• 1480 → 1450: Downside targets
• Above 1600–1610 with strong volume: Cut the short immediately
The bigger storage trend may still have room to run, but SNDK’s one-day surge looks overheated enough for a correction. Rather than trying to predict the exact top, I’ll focus on risk levels and wait for confirmation.
#SandiskLongTermTargets
#AMDLargestBondDeal
#StrategySellsBTCAgain July's CPI and PPI were both moderate, US stocks continued to strengthen, the S&P hit a new high, the Nasdaq rose about 0.8%, and AI hardware stocks like MU and SNDK also rose.
$BTC is still stuck between $62,000 and $66,000, with trading volume and volatility continuing to decline.
This shows that the problem is no longer just macro, but within the crypto community.
ETF funds are indeed buying, but miners, corporate positions, and trapped positions are also selling. The result is that while some take over, the price never moves.
Next, I'll look at just a few locations:
$63,000 is a box defense; if it falls, we must prevent further declines.
Only when it stabilizes between 64,500 and 65,000 USD will the short-term market be considered stronger.
Only when volume surpasses $66,000 and ETF inflows resume can one qualify to talk about a trend reversal.
I'm not in a hurry to guess the answer now.
The $6,000 in 2018 and the $20,000 in 2022 both traded sideways for a long time, making people mistakenly believe the risk has passed. In the end, what hurts people is often not a big drop, but the sense of security created by sideways movement.北京时间 2026年8月13日20:30，美国7月PPI正式公布。 结果比市场预期更温和：PPI环比0.0%，同比 4.7%，低于市场预期的 4.9%，也明显低于前值 5.5%。美国劳工统计局同时显示，7月商品端价格下降0.7%，其中能源价格下降3.1%，是整体PPI降温的重要原因。 按很多新人最熟悉的逻辑： 通胀降温 → 美联储压力下降 → 风险资产利好 → BTC应该涨。 但现实又给大家上了一课。 数据公布后，BTC并没有马上出现大家想象中的“大阳线”。截至今晚，BTC大约仍在 6.36万美元 附近震荡，日内区间约在 63,267—64,047美元。 这其实就是今晚最值得新人记住的一件事： 利好 ≠ 必涨。 为什么？ 因为市场价格交易的从来不只是“数据好不好”，还包括： 市场之前有没有提前押注、资金愿不愿意继续买、ETF和机构资金有没有跟进，以及大家对后续美联储政策到底怎么理解。 有时候数据出来之前，市场已经提前涨完了； 有时候数据确实不错，但买盘还是不够； 还有时候表面利好，但市场关注的是别的风险。 所以以后再看到： “CPI低于预期！” “PPI低于预期！” “机构买入！” “Tether’s first full independent audit is more consequential as a governance milestone than as a snapshot of reserves. KPMG U.S. issued an unqualified opinion on Tether International’s 2025 financial statements, covering reserves, token liabilities, systems, valuations and counterparties; audited reserves exceeded liabilities by $6.814B at year-end.
The measured test now is repetition. If full audits become regular and disclosure scope remains meaningful, the impact could extend beyond USDT by raising the transparency benchmark for stablecoin issuers. One clean opinion strengthens credibility, but a durable standard requires consistency. Not advice, just analysis.
#TetherFirstFullAuditOption 1 — Best Default
PPI came in cooler. But don’t mistake “less hot” for “bullish.” 👀
US July PPI landed at 4.7% YoY vs. 4.9% expected, while MoM was flat. That gives the market a little breathing room and keeps rate-cut hopes alive.
But I’m not chasing the first green candle.
The real signal comes next:
• Are Treasury yields falling?
• Is the dollar weakening?
• Can $BTC hold key levels with real volume?
Macro data creates the expectation.
Price action decides whether that expectation is worth trading.
For now, this is relief—not a confirmed reversal. 📊
---option
Option 2 — Strong Hook
The PPI number looks bullish… but the market still has something to prove.
July PPI came in at 4.7% YoY, below the 4.9% estimate, with MoM flat.
Good news? Yes.
A reason to blindly chase BTC? Not yet.
The market may be pricing in softer inflation and a less distant rate cut, but expectations can move faster than liquidity.
I want to see Treasury yields fall, the dollar weaken, and most importantly, $BTC hold its key levels with volume.
Until then, I’d call this breathing room—not a new bull trend.
---option
Option 3 — Short & Punchy
Cooler PPI ≠ instant bull market.
US July PPI came in at 4.7% vs. 4.9% expected, with monthly PPI flat.
That’s enough to ease some pressure on risk assets and bring rate-cut expectations back into focus.
But I’m not buying the first green candle.
Watch yields. Watch the dollar.
Most importantly, watch $BTC volume and key levels.
The data opens the door. Price action tells us whether to walk through it. 📈
#DailyOrbit SanDisk's SNDK token surged strongly yesterday with complete logic. Tokenized US stocks are high-risk derivatives; the following is only a review of market logic and does not constitute investment advice.
SanDisk tokens are tokenized on-chain stocks, with prices fully pegged to the US stock SNDK. The crypto market only follows US stock fluctuations, not independent rallies of native crypto currencies.
U.S. CPI data met market expectations, inflation did not rebound beyond expectations, and the market directly traded expectations for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes.
Pressure on venture tech stocks eased, semiconductor and storage sectors collectively recovered, with the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index strengthening simultaneously,
AI large model inference and data center explosive consumption of NAND flash memory have tightened industry supply, causing storage chip prices to continue rising.
Not only SanDisk, but Micron and SK Hynix also surged simultaneously, causing a collective upheaval across the entire storage sector. This was a sector-specific rally, not a single stock rally
Tokens trade continuously 24/7, and US stock market fluctuations before and after trading are directly reflected on the token K-line, without the US market opening and market closure interruption; A large number of crypto traders flood into trading SNDK, bringing in leveraged contract funds, which further amplifies US stock gains, with spikes and volatility even more intense than the US stock itself;
Yesterday, SanDisk's SNDK surged violently, not due to crypto manipulation, but because the root cause came from US stocks. With CPI data released, interest rate hike concerns eased, and the company's investor daily release of longer-than-expected long-term earnings guidance, the AI storage track logic was once again recognized by capital.
Tokens only follow the US stock market, but 24-hour trading + leverage in the crypto world can be more volatile than US stocks. Remember, positive news is a long-term expectation. Don't blindly chase highs. If earnings fall short of expectations, the market can quickly pull back.The reason behind SanDisk’s massive surge is becoming clearer, but unfortunately I was short and got caught on the wrong side.
SanDisk jumped as much as 17% overnight and closed up 13.67%, lifting the entire storage sector, with SK Hynix and Micron also rallying strongly.
1. Main catalyst:
SanDisk gave an extremely bullish long-term outlook, targeting double-digit revenue growth through 2028–2030, around 80% gross margins, and 50% free-cash-flow margins. It also plans to return excess cash to shareholders after capacity investments. Its AI-inference storage strategy, including growing flash demand and HBF technology, added further excitement.
2. Why the move was so strong:
The stock had already been heavily sold after earnings, leaving plenty of short positions. The new guidance triggered aggressive short covering. Softer PPI and stable CPI also improved expectations for liquidity, bringing money back into AI hardware. Long-term supply agreements are another factor, as they could make the storage business less cyclical.
3. Risks:
The rally is heavily event-driven, so profit-taking and volatility could be intense. The bullish targets are for the next few years, while near-term earnings guidance hasn’t changed much. Storage stocks also remain sensitive to Treasury yields and Fed policy.
4. What I’m watching:
Can SNDK hold the rebound high? Will SK Hynix and Micron continue confirming the sector strength? And what signals come from Jackson Hole and the Fed?
If SNDK loses the breakout level quickly, this could turn into another short-lived spike rather than a sustained trend.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound
#SpaceX99%ValueFromAI Both CPI and PPI should be moderate; SOL, don't stick the rate cut script on the wall. Macro data loosens a screw and won't directly buy for on-chain transactions.
First, turn down the volume and see where the money is going. I will monitor the net cross-chain inflow of stablecoins and Solana DEX spot volume. If the money entering the chain doesn't increase, the price jumping first won't hold steady.
When interest rate expectations ease, highly volatile assets often rebound first, but this only affects the path, not the exclusive positive for SOL. Pulldown support is like the next leg in a relay race; if you don't hold steady, no matter how fast you ran earlier, all efforts are wasted.
If the price surges first and stablecoins don't enter the chain, it might just be leverage squeezed at the door. What really made me change my mind was that trading was still held after a drawdown, not that the screen suddenly turned green all afternoon.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be aware of the risks #$SOL $BTC
[On-chain Indicator Simulation: BTC's Classic 'Three-Line Crossing' Endgame Replayed]
Looking at BTC history, the relationship between STH Realized Price (short-term holder cost), LTH Realized Price (long-term holder cost), and the overall network Realized Price (actual cost) has always been the hardest on-chain signal of qualitative cycle bottoms.
Looking back at the three deep bear bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022, the market followed a completely consistent liquidation path:
1. The coin price continues to fall sharply, forcing short-term chasing chips to cut losses and exit, accelerating the STH cost line downward;
2. Surrender units are gradually shifting to long-term capital, and LTH cost lines are slowly rising;
3. Ultimately, the three lines formed a severe convergence and completed a death cross/adhesion crossover (STH falling below LTH/total network cost), marking the complete turnover of high-level chips and the official establishment of the iron bottom of the cycle.
Looking ahead to 2026, although the three cost lines are rapidly approaching, a final death cross has yet to form and intersect. The underlying logic of on-chain games has never changed—only when short-term holders experience thorough surrender and turnover at floating losses can the long-term bottom structure truly be solidified.
Based on past cycles, the three lines are very likely to repeat their historical trend and complete the final crossover. Enduring loneliness and paying attention to the final bottoming signal when the crossover completes is often the starting point for a new bull market to gather momentum.After reviewing the Hong Kong-licensed HKD stablecoin HKDAP contract, BlockSec pointed out issues such as invalid KYC revocation logic, insufficient on-chain verification of KYC proofs, and excessive concentration of high-risk privileges.
"Licensing" and "contract security" are not the same thing. Licensing addresses subject compliance, but code risks must be considered separately. If stablecoins really want to be made on a large scale of payments, managing permissions and synchronizing KYC status are more important than publicity.Crypto is in a strange spot right now: good US stock-market news barely helps it, while bad news can hurt badly.
CPI and PPI both showed cooling inflation, with July CPI at 3.4%, core CPI at 2.5%, and PPI easing to 4.7%. Rate-hike odds for September also dropped, yet crypto barely reacted.
$BTC remains around $64K, while $ETH is stuck near $1,870–$1,890, with $1,900 acting as strong resistance. Meanwhile, US stocks like $SNDK and SK Hynix are surging.
The difference is simple: crypto wants actual rate cuts, not just the absence of hikes. Until liquidity expectations improve, BTC may stay range-bound and ETH may remain capped.
My approach: Don’t chase BTC above $64K; look for dips near $63K. Accumulate ETH below $1,850 and avoid chasing above $1,900. Wait for the Fed/liquidity narrative to shift before getting aggressive.
#SP500Nears8000
#AIInfraEarningsWatch
#AMDLargestBondDeal 1. Among those who bought $BTC during last year's bull market, only 4.77 million coins remain, and 41.5% have already cut their losses 😂😂
2. Bitcoin's average trend index has hit its lowest point in the past two days, indicating a new direction is about to be chosen. Personally, I lean toward a decline
3. During the 2022 bear bottom, 51% of retail investors fled; During the 2018 bear bottom, 62% fled; This year, the drop is only 41%, so there should be another drop.
But I felt it wouldn't drop much, because the wave of bottom-fishing was already making me a bit nervous. I planned to start increasing my position when it dropped to 56,000.#AMD完成历史最大美元债发行: Raised $4.75 billion
AMD has launched the largest USD bond in the company's history, raising a total of $4.75 billion. The bonds were oversubscribed, institutional funds actively took over, and chip giants are officially ramping up leverage to prepare for the AI computing power arms race.
Multiple interpretations
1. Oversubscription of bonds represents Wall Street institutions' recognition of AMD's AI growth story, willingness to provide long-term capital. The company has ample ammunition to expand AI chip production, make strategic external investments, and repurchase maturing debt.
2. This is yet another signal of tech giants borrowing to increase their investment in AI. The global wave of AI capital spending continues, and the overall narrative of the computing power and storage industry chain is being strengthened.
3. Indirectly benefiting crypto AI and decentralized computing power sectors will bring emotional catalysts.
Don't just look at the positives
1. Borrowing money to expand does not mean delivering on performance. With rising liabilities, if subsequent AI capital expenditure falls short of expectations, it will bring interest pressure and make future financial reports more volatile.
2. The funds should be used for general corporate purposes, not entirely directly invested in AI; some will be used to replace old debt, so do not overly exaggerate positive expectations.
3. The positive news for the US AI sector is easy to "materialize," and the news does not necessarily mean stock prices will continue to rise. Most of the moves transmitted to the crypto market are pulse-like rallies with limited sustainability.
Personal opinion
AMD's bond issuance essentially leverages to bet on the long-term AI market. Institutions are willing to pay for it, indicating that the AI megacycle story is not over yet, but it is a medium- to long-term logic.
The crypto sector is just a catalyst for sentiment; don't jump straight into AI-themed coins just because of positive chip news in the US market.
Practical focus on tracking follow-up: downstream AI chip orders, changes in corporate gross margins, and stories need to be verified by performance; it's not suitable for short-term news chases. 📍 [Data Snapshot]
Last week, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs combined net inflows of $853 million, a multi-month high, with BlackRock IBIT contributing more than half. Institutional funds have been flowing in continuously for several weeks.
📉 [Price Feedback]
However, the market is almost "immune"—Bitcoin is limited to a narrow range of 62,000–65,000, while Ethereum is hovering between 1800–1900, with clear lack of upward momentum.
🔍 [Alternative Interpretation]
This phenomenon of "money delivered but not paid for much" is not new to the author: after multiple large-scale inflows in the past, it quickly shifted to net outflows, indicating that institutions currently only amusing themselves amid low liquidity and lacking retail investors following the trend. Secondary market support is weak, and most people are closely watching CPI and US Treasury yields, unwilling to bet early.
🧩 [Two-currency Character Differentiation]
· Bitcoin is more like a "stabilizer": institutions buy only to prevent a deep drop, not to drive the trend upward, so the downside is limited and the upside weak.
· Ethereum is a "high-volatility product": with strong liquidity and strong elasticity, once inflows slow down, the drawdown becomes even more severe; combined with the second-layer network ecosystem diversion, its independent market performance is further suppressed.
🚧 [Conditions for Breaking Through Bottlenecks]
Currently, incremental funds are only enough to support the bottom, not break the deadlock. To truly break through the key resistance zone, two forces need to work together:
· First, Ethereum inflows remain continuous;
· Second, macro data (inflation, interest rate expectations) provide clear signals.
⚠️ [Operation Tips]
In a volatile pattern, avoid impulsively increasing positions due to large weekly inflows—positive news is often quickly absorbed. The reality is: institutions are buried in accumulating shares, retail investors stand by and watch, and the market is stuck in a stalemate where it neither rises nor falls; patience is more important than courage. $ETH $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens #标普收盘再创新高, 8,000-point expectation heats up#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report takes the stage 🔍 Historical Market Review | History Repeats Itself, Regulatory Delay Script Reenacted Again
1. Looking Back: ETF Approval Delays Sparked a Super Bull Market
Looking back at the market trends from four years ago, a similar historical script is playing out again.
In 2023, the U.S. SEC continuously extended the review period for the Bitcoin spot ETF, repeatedly postponing approval decisions. Market sentiment shifted from initial high expectations to numbness, and finally overall pessimism, with many turning bearish on the subsequent market.
However, major ETF issuers did not stop; they kept revising application documents and supplementing compliance materials to continue submitting for review. By January 10, 2024, the spot ETF was finally approved and launched.
After the policy was implemented, the market exploded, with Bitcoin rallying from the 40,000 level all the way to the 100,000 mark, and the entire crypto market followed suit, entering an unprecedented major bull market.
2. Current Replay: The Clarity Act Retraces the Delay Path
Now in 2026, the exact same delay pattern has reappeared, this time centered on the Clarity Act.
The Senate first postponed the bill vote until the summer recess, effectively shelving the schedule; later it was further delayed until after the midterm elections, with no news of enactment, continuously signaling a wait-and-see stance, closely mirroring the ETF approval routine from before.
History does not simply repeat, but market rules and rhythms are strikingly similar. Before any major regulatory policy is officially implemented, the market always goes through a dark low period with confidence steadily declining.
When ETFs were repeatedly delayed, the market was convinced institutional funds would struggle to enter compliantly; now with the Clarity Act vote repeatedly postponed, the market is again pessimistic, believing regulatory rules will be hard to clarify and implement.
3. Thoughts on the Future: Don’t Rush In After a Big Rally Post-Enactment
Policy implementation often comes without warning; a single market-opening announcement can trigger a major shift.
Since the full script has already played out once before, this time it will likely follow the same pattern. Don’t wait until the market starts to surge to hastily jump in and position yourself. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 8 月 13 日晚，聚焦山寨币的期现套利协议 Neutrl 突然宣布，由于协议储备受到影响，已暂时停止铸币、赎回及其他协议功能。
Neutrl 并未详述所谓的“储备受到影响”到底是因为什么，只是强调此举是在咨询法律顾问后，为维护用户利益并在评估影响期间保持流程有序而采取的措施。Neutrl 还表示，团队将适时为用户提供处理流程说明，有关时间安排及后续步骤的更多信息将在确定后公布。
由于此官宣来的太过突然，且官方没有披露任何有效线索，致使社区情绪快速转向恐慌，各种猜测在社交媒体上持续蔓延。简单来说，Neutrl 是一个围绕山寨币构建的期现套利协议，你可以把它理解为一个山寨币版本的 Ethena。
具体而言，Neutrl 会在私募市场以折扣价买入锁仓的山寨币，然后用永续合约对冲风险敞口，以捕捉两者之间的价差与资金费率等收益。
之后，Neutrl 会将上述收益打包为链上的结构化产品，并向用户开放存款，以允许用户直接参与其套利策略 —— Neutrl 此前推出的核心产品包括 NLP（Neutrl Liquidity Pool） 等，用户存入资产后，协议会将资金配置到相应的套利策略中，并通过铸造协议代币等方式让用户获得对策略收益的敞口。
去年四月，Neutrl 曾宣布完成 500 万美元种子轮融资，数字资产私募市场 STIX 和风险投资公司 Accomplice 领投，Amber Group、SCB Limited、Figment Capital 和 Nascent 等众多加密货币天使投资者参投，包括 Ethena 创始人 Guy Young 和 Arbelos Markets（最近被 FalconX 收购）的衍生品交易员 Joshua Lim。
由于模式上与 Ethena 高度相似，因此 Neutrl 也会存在与 Ethena 类似的底层交易平台风险，合约流动性风险，以及资金费率波动风险。此外，由于 Neutrl 所聚焦的资产是有着锁仓限制、波动性更大的山寨币，因此上述风险相对只更高，且还存在一层难以预料的交易对手风险（即锁仓山寨币的交易对手存在违约可能性）。去年 11 月 Neutrl 上线之初，由于协议收益率相对较高，加之积分计划给予的空投预期，该协议一度吸引了超过 2 亿美元的资金存入，但随着 DeFi 行业风险倾向的持续收缩，如今 Neutrl 的 TVL 已缩水至约 5330 万美元。Today, the dual-currency wealth management test expired at 16:00, with a low buy at $63,000
$BTC
The deal was made. Actually, I'm a bit conflicted about the timing. Normally, today is the last trading day, and usually the weekend doesn't change much. Normally, if you want to maximize profits, placing a sell order at $63,000 is a good idea. If I make a deal, I'm basically making four days of free interest, with the principal unchanged. Even if there are no trades, the interest is maximized.
Especially considering that Trump makes some small moves every weekend, which is not friendly to the weekend market, he always thinks $63,000 is a good choice. But instinctively, he feels that if he chooses $63,000, he sells too low. After all, I think there's still a chance it will return to $64,000 next week. And if Trump backs down today, then rebounds tonight and tomorrow should also be good.
After some hesitation, he finally decided to follow his original plan: placing a sell order at $65,000, losing the interest of the past three days. If you choose $63,000 for those three days, that's still a lot, but $65,000 is almost gone.
Also, my own position was a $65,000 sell expiring next Monday. Although I already placed an order, I was still a bit conflicted about $BTC [Pharaoh Market Watch]
Pharaoh bluntly said that AMD's $4.75 billion bond issuance isn't about lack of funds, but about locking in the "entry ticket" for AI infrastructure in advance. Other companies borrow money because they can't hold on, but AMD borrows because it has $13.1 billion in cash lying on its head, and wants to borrow another $5 billion to finish the battle for the coming years ahead of schedule.
Let's first look at how strong the data is.
AMD has just completed its largest dollar bond issuance in its history, with four maturities ranging from 3 to 10 years, totaling $4.75 billion. The final pricing of the 10-year bond is 90 basis points higher than U.S. Treasuries, narrowing the spread by 25 basis points from the initial guidance, showing that the market is not afraid of AMD borrowing money but is eager to lend it. As of the end of June, AMD's cash and short-term investments totaled $13.1 billion, with total long-term debt of only $3.2 billion, making its balance sheet extremely tough.
So why borrow money?
Because the AI infrastructure battle is not just about technology—it's about who can lock in capacity sooner. AMD has $875 million in bonds maturing next month, and this money is likely to be used to repay old debts and extend its capital structure. But the real goal is to reserve a financial buffer for AI business expansion. The company is intensively implementing AI investments, including committing up to $5 billion to Anthropic to deploy the Helios AI platform on Microsoft's Azure cloud service.
Comparing with Intel is even more telling.
Intel chose $20 billion in equity financing to support its foundry business, while AMD opted for bond financing, with not a single cent diluted in equity. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo all participated, and the underwriting syndicate included Goldman Sachs, HSBC, BNP Paribas, and 16 other institutions. Wall Street voted with their feet, optimistic about AMD's growth certainty in the AI chip sector.
What did the Pharaoh think?
Intel is borrowing money to stay alive, while AMD is borrowing money to expand. The AI chip market's "arms race" has entered a cash-burning phase; whoever gets cheap funding first gains several percent of the chance in production capacity, R&D, and ecosystem integration. AMD's bond issuance this time is investment banks' credit endorsement for the "second-largest AI chip company." For Pie, there is no direct short-term impact, but the smoother the financing channels for AI infrastructure, the higher the risk appetite for the entire tech sector. As a risk asset, Pie will inevitably be affected.
Remember, good deals are made by waiting. AMD's 4.75 billion is not debt, but an ammunition pool for computing power expansion.
Follow Pharaoh, never lose your way to wealth! $BTC $ETH $OKB #AMD完成历史最大美元债发行: Raised $4.75 billion The SEC's planned "Regulation Crypto" meeting was suddenly canceled, and the long-rumored crypto regulatory framework was delayed again; Even the market-anticipated tokenized stock "innovation exemption" was postponed again. Wall Street, the White House, and regulators are still arguing over how to implement specific rules.
To put it bluntly, the U.S. is not unwilling to do so, but rather wants to make it look more beautiful, but the parties have yet to reach an agreement.
Instead, Tether delivered some tough news to the market: the company behind USDT has finally completed its long-awaited "Big Four" audit, and KPMG has issued an unqualified opinion on its full 2025 financial statements. For a stablecoin with a circulating volume exceeding $180 billion, this move carries significant significance.
So what cares more about me isn't how long the SEC has delayed this time, but rather that the crypto industry is being forced to accept traditional financial practices.
US regulators are still debating whether to let people in, while leading crypto companies have already started proactively preparing themselves to resemble traditional financial institutions.
That's what I think is the real part to watch later on.Storage Trio Rally: AI Super Cycle Fuels Bullish Sentiment
The US storage sector has been on fire, with Micron $MU, SK Hynix $SKHYNIX, and SanDisk $SNDK leading a powerful two-day rally on August 12–13.
On August 12, all three jumped sharply, while other memory stocks like Western Digital, Seagate, and Kioxia also posted strong gains. South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix followed with major rallies as well.
Then on August 13, SanDisk became the main catalyst after revealing an extremely bullish long-term outlook at its 2026 Investor Day. The company expects strong revenue growth through 2028–2030, with gross margins around 80% and operating margins near 75%. Shares surged over 17% intraday and closed up 13.67%, lifting the entire storage sector.
Several factors are supporting the move, including softer US inflation, improving rate expectations, stronger storage-market forecasts, and institutional interest in memory-chip companies.
But the biggest driver is clearly AI demand. From HBM to enterprise SSDs, storage is becoming critical infrastructure for AI, especially as the industry moves from training toward large-scale inference.
This rally looks like a strong market signal that the AI-driven storage cycle could have much further to run.
And I’m still crying over missing the chance to sell my SanDisk at the top 😭😭😭
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit
#TrumpTruthAPILawsuit
#HormuzPressureRises 🔴 SK Hynix Books a ₩3.98T Derivative Loss — But It’s Not a Cash Loss
SK Hynix reported a ₩3.98 trillion accounting loss in H1 2026 tied to exchangeable bonds issued in April 2023.
The trigger? Bondholders exercised their exchange rights as SK Hynix shares surged.
But here’s the important part:
→ No actual cash outflow from the derivative loss
→ Treasury-share disposal gains largely offset the accounting impact
→ The loss mainly reflects mark-to-market accounting as the stock price climbed
In other words, the headline looks huge, but the economic impact is far less dramatic.
Strong stock performance can create strange accounting numbers.
$SKHY $SKHYNIX Currently, cryptocurrencies are showing signs of increased activity among altcoins, but multiple core data points indicate that the official arrival of the full altcoin season still requires key confirmation signals Signs of a technical breakthrough: Recently, the total market capitalization of altcoins has broken through key resistance levels, and the dominance of altcoins has broken a two-year downward trend, indicating renewed bullish confidence. $ETH and other mainstream altcoins outperformed $BTC, driving a short-term market sentiment recovery Liquidity has not been fully confirmed: Although some altcoins performed strongly, $BTC dominance remains above 60%, and funds have not spilled out of Bitcoin on a large scale into altcoins. Historical experience shows that a true altcoin season usually requires Bitcoin's dominance to fall below 59.63% or even lower Altcoin Season Index Below Standard: The core measure of Altcoin Season is currently around 39-40, far below the official altcoin season threshold of 75 points (meaning more than 75% of altcoins outperform Bitcoin). Facing this "turning point" market, investors are advised to adopt the following strategies: Distinguish between structural rotation and comprehensive breakouts: Currently, it is more like selective rotation in specific sectors rather than the "buy with your eyes closed" broad-based rally in 2021. Do not mistake local rallies for a full-fledged knockoff season Focus on confirmation signals: Focus on monitoring whether Bitcoin's dominance has actually declined and whether altcoin trading volume can stabilize during Bitcoin's consolidation. If Bitcoin weakens, altcoin trading volume quickly declines#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up
Just glanced at the US stock market close, the S&P 500 hit new highs again, 7798.99 points, surpassing 7800 points for the first time intraday. The VIX hit an intraday low of 14.39, a new low this year. This scene is so familiar it's a bit unsettling—does this seem like the same script around this time last year?
Let me share a few interesting points.
First, the driving logic behind the new high is different from last year.
The main drivers of this rally are cooling inflation data + falling oil prices. In July, the PPI was flat month-on-month, and the core PPI rose only 0.2%, both below expectations. The CPI the previous day also met expectations. Brent fell below $87, and WTI fell to around $81. With both inflation and oil prices falling, the market has directly priced in the Fed to continue pausing rate hikes.
But what really concerned me wasn't these macro data—it was earnings holding the market up, and valuations barely moved. Citadel released a report showing that the S&P 500's Q2 earnings per share growth rate was about 33%, the strongest level outside the post-recession recovery period. More importantly, while the index hit a new high, the 12-month forward P/E ratio was compressed from 23 times last October to about 20 times. Simply put, earnings are outpacing stock prices, not just bubbles. Rubner's exact words are "completely different from 1999"—although we should discount on his optimism.
Second, the 8000-point mark is becoming less and less like a dream.
JPMorgan just raised its year-end target from 7,800 to 8,000 on Monday, marking the second increase in two months. Currently, at least seven investment banks are eyeing 8,000, and Evercore ISI has given an optimistic outlook of 9,000. Forecasting market Kalshi's bet on reaching 8,000 this year has already reached 66%.
The gap between 7700 and 8000 is just over 200 points, less than 3%. At this pace, hitting 8000 in August is no longer a dream. Tom Lee previously predicted that August would reach the 7900-8000 range, and now it looks within range. Of course, we have to look at this prediction dialectically — when it's accurate, it's really accurate; when it fails, it's still a real turnaround.
But there are a few hidden dangers that need to be kept in mind.
One is that FOMO sentiment is indeed a bit excessive. The S&P 500 options call/put ratio has surged to 0.9, the most bullish in at least four years. Short-term call options skew has also soared to a two-year high. Many institutions are now not afraid of falls, but of missing out. At times like this, someone should step in and pour cold water on the situation.
The other is geopolitical and oil price uncertainty. The troublesome issue in the Strait of Hormuz has never stopped, and if oil prices surge again, inflation data may fluctuate again. How Fed Chair Washh interprets these data after taking office is also a variable.
Third, let's share some practical impressions.
Should I chase at this level or not? To be honest, I haven't really reduced my US stock-related exposure in my position, but these past few days I've been considering whether to do some hedging protection. Volatility near the new high is ridiculously low. The VIX is already 14.39, so buying a put as insurance isn't expensive—of course, this is just a personal habit and not a recommendation. If you lose money, don't contact me.
Storage chips really hit hard this time—SanDisk rose 13+ in one day, Western Digital and SK Hynix both dropped over 7%. But in optical communications, Coherent surged the day before and then dropped 8%—this sector is highly divided, so those chasing highs, be careful.
Oh, and gold, silver, and oil all fell together. Gold fell 1.32% to $4,350. Risk appetite was all directed at the stock market, and the main sector was heavily drained.
Finally, let me ask you a question to talk about.
The S&P is already at 7799. Do you think we'll see 8000 before the end of August? Should we keep adding positions and go all out, or wait for a pullback to decide? Share your thoughts in the comments and see if anyone else is as conflicted as I am. [Interactive Guidance]
(The above is purely personal rambling and does not constitute any investment advice, DYOR.) ）
$BTC The US July PPI was flat month-on-month, with year-on-year growth falling from 5.5% to 4.7%. On the surface, it continued the inflation cooling trend following CPI, but the details are not as mild as the headline. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, prices still rose 0.4% month-on-month, indicating that while goods cooled, prices for some services remained stubborn.
As a result, the market has lessened short-term interest rate hike concerns but has not received sufficient evidence to trade for rate cuts early. Retail sales, Michigan consumer confidence, and inflation expectations will be released tonight. If consumption remains strong, the easing expectations from PPI may be further weakened; If retail sales and inflation expectations cool down simultaneously, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will have a basis for further declines.
Geopolitics today once again overshadowed the positive effects of inflation. The US-Iran negotiations have made no substantial progress; the US side has stated that the blockade of Iranian ports can be maintained long-term, while new aircraft carrier forces are approaching the Middle East; The Strait of Hormuz has yet to resume normal traffic, adding another potential front to the conflict between the Houthis and the Yemeni government forces.
In other words, the decline in energy prices in the July PPI belongs to the past, while the energy inflation risk from the strait blockade is future. As long as negotiations do not resume, oil prices, the dollar, and risk aversion will continue to limit the crypto market's rebound potential.$SNDK SanDisk's strong outlook drove SK Hynix ADR up 7.29%, Western Digital up 7.31%, and Micron up 4.23%, with Asian storage stocks collectively rising.
This surge is essentially a vote by the market on the narrative that "AI-driven NAND demand is a structural change rather than a cyclical bubble"—the stock price plunged after the previous earnings report precisely because the market feared the cycle had peaked, and Investor Day happened to address this core concern.
⚠️ Memory chips are a highly cyclical industry. The experience of stock prices halving from $40 to $2,300 reminds us that if high growth expectations cannot be sustained, the risk of a correction is also significant.#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus
SanDisk's investor day directly pushed the stock price up. It rose more than 17% during the session and closed up nearly 14%, with SK Hynix and Western Digital both rising more than 7%.
The market's excitement is straightforward—SanDisk has provided a long-term financial framework far beyond expectations. From fiscal years 2028 to 2030, revenue will achieve mid-to-high double-digit growth, gross margin stabilize around 80%, operating margin 75%, and free cash flow margin 50%. The storage industry used to be notorious for its high cycles, but now SanDisk claims AI can completely smooth out these fluctuations.
Supporting this goal are several hard elements. Eight customers have signed long-term framework agreements covering about 50% of Bitcoin shipments in fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal year 2028. The total contract value is about $94 billion. HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) technology is also advancing, and tape-out has been completed. Capital returns are more direct—after completing business investments, 100% excess free cash flow is returned to shareholders, leaving $15.5 billion in existing buyback quotas.
But there's a key point to be clear. This long-term guidance doesn't contradict the logic behind the stock price crash after previous earnings reports. Last quarter's financial report was indeed explosive, but next quarter's median guidance was 10.55 billion, lower than the market expectation of 10.8 billion—down 12% in two days. Back then, the market wanted "How much can you earn now?" Now SanDisk is offering "How much can I keep earning in the future?" The answers to these two questions were completely different from the market's response.
SanDisk is working hard to prove that it is no longer the storage company that follows cycles. NBMs protocol, HBF, and AI-inferentially driven enterprise-grade flash memory TAM are expected to reach 1.2ZB by 2030—if this combination of assets is realized, it would indeed be worthy of a new valuation model. But whether long-term protocols can truly smooth the cycle remains to be seen. Goldman Sachs set a target price of $2,200, Bernstein previously gave $3,000—these people believed it, but their confidence was built on the 2028 figure, and no one could predict what would happen during those three years.S&P 500 New Highs, Storage Stocks May Have More Room
PPI, CPI and employment data are cooling together, easing Fed rate-hike pressure and supporting risk assets. With the S&P 500 breaking new highs, Citi’s 8,100 year-end target suggests the rally may not be fully priced in.
AI and storage earnings could provide the next upside catalyst.The previous selloff was driven by inflation and rate fears;those risks are now fading.
No need to chase.Focus on pullbacks.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 AMD’s $4.75B bond offering highlights a new dimension of the AI race: access to capital is becoming as important as chips, customers, and manufacturing capacity. Nvidia’s compute-financing ambitions and Intel’s planned equity raise reflect the same capital-heavy trend, though the risks are distributed differently.
Debt gives AMD room to finance infrastructure and capex without immediate shareholder dilution. The key question is whether AI revenue can grow quickly enough to support those funding costs. If not, balance-sheet strength could become an increasingly important factor in valuing AI companies. Not financial advice, just analysis.
#SandiskLongTermTargets
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced?
If crypto starts to be valued based on "revenue," $BTC may actually be the first asset to be misjudged.
🚨 Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently pointed out that crypto asset valuations are shifting from "market cap and narrative" to more observable metrics such as on-chain fees and protocol revenue.
This viewpoint sounds rational, but I don't quite agree with it.
Revenue can measure a company, but it may not be suitable for measuring crypto assets.
For BTC, the most important thing has never been how much it can earn in a year.
But rather, how much is the world willing to pay for these 21 trillion-yuan scarce assets?
Just as gold does not appreciate because global gold trading fees increase.
BTC's true value has never been about "how much money it can make," but how much the market is willing to spend to hold it.
Its core pricing logic is closer: scarcity, supply ceiling, ETF capital flows, global liquidity, US dollar credit, and store of value demand—this logic is completely different from traditional stocks.
Crypto really needs to value real data.
But this does not mean that all assets should be valued using the same method.
ETH can be considered income,
DeFi can calculate cash flow,
But BTC should answer even more: Why are more and more people around the world willing to treat it as a scarce digital asset?
So I don't think "revenue" will become the unified valuation framework for crypto.
It is more likely to apply only to a portion of assets.TruthSocial 因付费数据流被起诉，这件事比普通平台商业化严重得多。
如果只是卖社交数据，问题不大。可当总统经常在平台上发布关税、军事、监管、市场相关内容，而金融机构可以付费更快拿到数据流，事情就变味了。信息本来应该同时公开，结果变成谁付钱谁先看。
这不是小功能，是市场公平问题。
高频交易只需要几毫秒优势，政策消息只要早一点点，就可能变成钱。更敏感的是，平台背后还和特朗普本人有利益关系，这会让“官方信息”和“私人变现”搅在一起。
我觉得这类诉讼真正问的是：总统的市场敏感信息，到底属于公共信息，还是可以被公司包装成数据产品？
如果答案含糊，未来每一次政策发布都会带着一层交易阴影。
#特朗普因TruthSocial付费数据流遭起诉 SNDK is already in the spotlight; for AI, I'm more focused on MRVL and LITE
I've always told everyone to go long on SanDisk and long on Mywell, but I still don't think the AI market is over.
But now, the most important thing is no longer to "keep chasing the strongest," but to look for the next earnings forecast gap that hasn't fully priced in yet.
SNDK has risen about 13.6% in a single day, showing a strong trend, but chasing it further from the current position clearly results in lower odds than before the start.
In the next phase, I will focus on MRVL.
Marvell's revenue last quarter was $2.418 billion, up 28% year-over-year; The company's median Q2 revenue guidance reached $2.7 billion, up about 35% year-over-year, and clearly stated that AI-related orders are strong and data center business will continue to drive growth. The August 27 earnings report will be the next key verification.
LITE is also worth continuing to follow. The latest quarterly revenue was $1.006 billion, +109.3% year-on-year, with the median guidance for next quarter rising to $1.25 billion. The AI optical internet market remains very strong.
My approach is simple:
AI is not over; it has only moved from the rally chasing phase to the "performance verification + expectation gap" phase.
SNDK has proven storage; next, it will be a matter of which MRVL or LITE delivers the next performance that exceeds expectations. $SNDK $LITE #闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus $DOS DOS/USDT
● Current price: 0.2662 USDT (-4.14%)
● Trend Analysis:
● Sharp Sell-Off, Is All the Good News Exhausted? DOS was the biggest dropper on the list, exceeding 4%. Combined with the "Trading Points 1.35 million DOS Prize Pool" event shown at the top of the screenshot, this is likely a typical "event-end selling pressure" or "mining sell-off" market.
● As airdrops or reward events draw to a close, participants often concentrate on selling for profit, causing sharp price fluctuations.
● Trading advice: Never bottom-fish.
● Strategy: This decline caused by the end of an event often has inertia. Don't try to catch the knife; wait for volume to shrink and prices stabilize before making any plans. #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen “抄底$BTC ，数字黄金要接棒”。
别急着站队。
因为就在同一天，一份SEC文件炸了锅——
韩国央行，13年来第一次，买黄金了。
二季度，韩国央行买入679,765股SPDR黄金ETF，持仓价值2.5亿美元。
什么概念？
这家央行上次碰黄金还是2013年，买了20吨实物金之后就再也没动过。13年不闻不问，突然掏出2.5亿美元杀进黄金ETF。
而且这只是开始。
韩国央行已经表态，要建立新机制采购韩国本土精炼黄金——近60年来第一次。
翻译成人话：韩国人不仅回来了，还准备长住。
有人说：“才2.5亿美元，算个屁。”
你错了。
二季度全球央行净买入黄金289吨，同比增长62%。中国央行连续21个月增持，7月单月扫货64万盎司。
45%的受访央行预计未来一年继续增持。
韩国央行这2.5亿，不是孤立事件。它是全球央行集体“用脚投票”的最新一票。
现在说回你手里的BTC。
LBMA调查显示，分析师对年末金价预测中值是4500美元。最乐观的看到7150。
黄金在4350震荡，下面有全球央行托底。跌一点，就有人买一点。
BTC呢？
跌一点，你在等反弹。再跌一点，你在等“数字黄金”叙事救你。
可问题是——央行买黄金，不买BTC。
黄金近三年的升势，主要由各国央行买入推动。而比特币的所有权，仍然集中在个人手中。
一个是主权资金在撑，一个是散户在熬。
你觉得谁更稳？
说句扎心的：
“数字黄金”这个称号，在央行眼里连个 footnote 都不算。
你把它当黄金买，人家把你当科技股卖。
全球M2已经创了历史新高，但比特币根本没有反应。因为钱去了黄金——那个真正被央行承认的“数字”，是实物黄金的“实”，不是比特币的“数字”。
黄金这轮行情，背后是全球央行在用真金白银投票——投给物理资产，投给不受任何单一政府控制的硬通货。
比特币讲的是同一个故事。
但讲故事的，和买故事的，是两拨人。#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 477万枚$BTC ，这是2025年进场的人手里剩下的筹码。去年12月是815万枚，8个月少了338万枚。
每少一枚，就是一笔割肉单。
64000为什么冲了四次过不去？就是因为这批人的平均成本在67000-70000。 价格每往上拱一点，就有人拍大腿“终于少亏点了”，然后摁下卖出键。477万枚，按现在的价格算，价值3000亿美元。这批人现在是市场上最大的潜在卖盘。
但有意思的是，今年2月之前筹码掉得飞快，2月之后明显慢下来了。该割的已经割了大半，剩下的人，要么是死扛的，要么是根本不在乎这点波动的配置盘。
对比一下历史： 2022年熊市底部，2021年高位筹码减少了51%。2018年熊市底部，2017年高位筹码减少了62%。现在是多少？41%。
距离真正的底部筹码换手，可能还有10%到20%的空间。 换算成枚数，大概还要再消化50到100万枚。按现在的速度，还需要2到3个月。也就是说，10月到11月，可能才是这批筹码彻底洗干净的时间窗口。
到那时候，64000-65000的压力才会真正消失。
在这之前，每次反弹到64000附近，都会有人想跑。The US stock market has become increasingly interesting recently. You'll find that AI hasn't died down, but funding is no longer the same as before, pushing GPUs, optical modules, cloud computing, storage, and software all upward. Instead, a very obvious phenomenon has begun: after the price rises, funds move away; After cloud cash-out, funds are transferred to storage; When hardware overheats, software is instead re-examined. This is not the end of the AI rally. On the contrary—AI is moving from "believing the story" to the second stage of "calculating profits." On August 12, Optical Communication was the first to provide an answer. Lumentum's latest quarterly revenue reached $1.01 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 109%; More importantly, the company has set its next quarter revenue guidance at $1.225 billion to $1.275 billion, with a median of about $1.25 billion. The demand for high-speed optical connectivity in AI data centers is moving from industry expectations to financial statements. On the same day, AI Cloud continued to prove that computing power demand has not declined. CoreWeave's Q2 revenue reached $2.575 billion, up about 112% year-on-year; As of the end of June, the Revenue Backlog had reached about $104 billion, and this figure doesn't even include the more than $25 billion in customer commitments added at the start of the third quarter. Nebius is even more exaggerated. Q2 revenue was $582.3 million, up 454% year-on-year, with AI Cloud revenue reaching $575 million, up 514% year-on-year; The company also disclosed that in 2026,The BTC spot ETF data for August is quite interesting.
In the first three trading days, net inflows were $626 million, IBIT alone consumed $479 million, with cumulative inflows approaching $61 billion.
However, on August 13, the ETF had a net outflow of 1,132 BTC, about $72 million, and a net outflow of 202 BTC for the week, about $12.9 million
On the same day, UBS's Q2 13F filing was released, confirming an injection of nearly $90 million into IBIT.
They were retreating while advancing, and both the evacuation and entry were institutions!
What does this indicate?
It's not a collapse of confidence, but a rebalancing of positions.
The funds entering in July were taking profits, new funds were borrowing back to build positions, and chips shifted from short-term to long-term holdings.
Add another detail: since August, ETFs have not experienced two consecutive days of net outflows, which is clearly different from the back-and-forth market in July.
The essence of ETF fund divergence is institutions adjusting their pace, not exiting. The underlying logic behind IBIT's continued fund inflow hasn't changed—institutions that treat BTC as an asset don't change their judgment just because of a single day of outflow. A pullback is their window to add positions; retail investors shouldn't let single-day data lead their pace.
$BTC #CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened ETH is facing a night retreat to 1830. Is 1830 a support level where real demand once fell, or is it an empty support with a flood of stop-losses? The original post shows that short-term holders are still maintaining long positions while expecting a drop to 1830. The key is to distinguish whether this position is a mistake maker, a passive allocation, or a short-term speculative fund. - Market Structure: At the time of writing, ETH has started a downtrend, and the author has set a daily target of 1830. This means that the mid-1800s are perceived as short-term support. - Position Action: The author stated, "I wondered if I would take profits in the afternoon, but I held on." This is a typical pattern of short-term speculative funds, where traders already in profit position anticipate further declines but postpone liquidation. - Difference in expectations: The author mentions "calm before the storm," making the decline a given. If the market already expects a decline, after this expectation is reflected in the price, actual volatility may be less than anticipatedThis looks more like a cautious risk reset than a crypto-specific break. BTC at $63,358.7, ETH at $1,884.3 and SOL at $75.89 are all down less than 1% over 24 hours, a notably synchronized move.
With the S&P 500 nearing 8,000 while the Fed outlook remains split, I would treat resilience in equities as selective rather than broad. AI infrastructure and Korea’s chip rebound may support sentiment, but delayed CLARITY Act and SEC rules leave crypto without a clean policy catalyst. My bias is neutral until BTC shows firmer relative strength.
Just my read, not advice.Those who bought BTC in 2025 are now all underwater.
The on-chain data is clear—there are still 4.77 million BTC purchased in 2025 in holding addresses, down 41.5% from the peak last December. Except for wallet transfers, the rest are all sold at a loss. Average price is 65,000-70,000, but now BTC is only 63,000-64,000, with an average loss of $2,000-5,000 per coin.
What does this mean?
4.77 million BTC, at the current 63,000, is worth about $300 billion. The average cost of these tokens is between 67,000 and 70,000, with current floating losses of about 5-10%. Every 1% increase means more positions get close to breaking even, and then they face selling pressure. The reason the 64,000-65,000 has failed to break even four times is because too many people are stuck in this range.
There was still one more debt to settle.
This figure of 4.77 million coins, last December's peak was 8.15 million coins, a decrease of 3.38 million coins in eight months. Excluding internal exchange transfers and wallet consolidation, at least 2 million tokens actually sold at a loss, about $130 billion in sell orders were digested. For every transaction absorbed, there is one less new counterpart position.
Of the remaining 4.77 million tokens, how many are held by living people, how many are dead addresses, and how many are institutional allocation accounts—no one can say for sure. But one thing is certain—the average cost for these people is between 67,000 and 70,000. At 64,000, they won't make money and won't sell. But once it rises to 67,000, these tokens will become pressure.
What impact will it have on the market?
In the short term, 4.77 million tokens are a volume holding onto the ceiling. The 64,000-65,000 level was broken four times but failed, mainly because the trapped positions in this area were not fully absorbed. The market needs time; either it holds sideways until these people can't hold back and cut losses, or they either release large amounts and rush straight in.
ETH and SOL are the same, just without on-chain data quantification. Buying ETH in 2025 costs an average of 2000-2200, now 1880, still losing money. Buying SOL costs 90-100, now 76, even worse.
It's not that a bull market hasn't existed; it's just that those entering in 2025 haven't enjoyed it yet.
These people either cut losses and exit or recoup their losses. For the market, every less trapped position sold at 64,000 reduces resistance to breakouts. On-chain data doesn't lie—chips are declining, selling pressure is exhausting. But it will take time before everything is fully digested.
Order trading approach:
At BTC, you can place orders in batches: one each at 63,000, 62,500, and 62,000. Don't rush around; wait for the chips to be digested before making a move. Don't add positions before 64,000 breaks through with increased volume.The most expensive mistake on the board isn't the moment of checkmate, but when you mistakenly think your opponent has revealed all their cards.
Tether's move today was not an ordinary move, but a belated king's rook cast. KPMG's unconditional opinion was like suddenly moving the king into a safe zone in the middle game—on the surface, it was a strategy statement. The 6.814 billion surplus of piece power on paper essentially tells all opponents watching this game: I have more resources than you imagine. Keep trading pieces, I'm not afraid of consumption.
But I never trust a single board chart. Unqualified opinions cover financial statements, reserves, token liabilities, systems, valuations, and counterparties, but the depth of the board is never in these explicit entries. The real experts look at the pace of the audit—if the audit isn't renewed next year, that's a one-time lure; If quarterly updates become routine, it shows the move isn't just a temporary step. The market is just such a seasoned opponent—it won't change its defensive plan just because you seem reasonable. It will force you to make five consecutive moves before admitting your advantage.
Looking back at the entire game of USDT. From a scarce gambit to today, watching his endgame from the edge of the entire board. Excess reserves are the thickness of the pieces, but thickness does not equal the initiative. Having pieces in hand does not mean you know how to exchange them. The opponent's list, the scale of disclosure, the caliber of audits—these are the detailed accounts that determine the difference between theory and actual play. A clear score after one move only proves your calculations were accurate in this match, not that your treasury hides no blind spots you want to cash out next.
Those who are a pawn ahead in the middle often mistakenly believe they can safely simplify things. But simplification itself is a form of exchange. Tether earned a market nod with an audit; whether this exchange is worth it depends on how the market responds in the coming months—whether the public will make this transparency routine, and whether regulators will continue to force more trump cards along this line. Every new announcement is a new stepping stone.
The way I checkmate you has never been with that move or move before, but with all the deep calculations that reshuffled the previous move and reshuffled the piece. USDT placed the first audit at the center of the board, so the whole world could see the shape of this piece, but only the opponent understood the player's expression.
Make a move—this game hasn't reached the endgame yet #tetherfirstfullauditThe whale is in the bag, $SNDK is going to give up?
I just saw a very interesting movement.
The whale cleared all long positions from SKHX and SNDK, pocketing 186,000 USD.
If he had managed to reach this morning's high, theoretically he could have earned an extra 1.385 million USD, but he didn't do that.
The key point is, after clearing the long position, he turned around and shorted SNDK at 10x value, averaging 1553, with a position value of 3.9 million U and a liquidation price of 1936.
Currently, SNDK is near 1560, and 1560-1580 is the pressure zone I focus on.
With high volume surging and pulling back at high levels, profit-taking is starting to be realized, and combined with the whale's reverse bearing, these signals are stacked together, and I really don't want to chase too much.
But I won't chase shorts right now.
My plan:
Rebound to around 1580. If it doesn't surge, then consider shorting, targeting 1500 first.
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus #加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced?
The leader had something to say
Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer raised a viewpoint: crypto asset valuations are shifting from market cap and narrative to on-chain fees and protocol revenue.
This view is easier to hold for ETH and DeFi. These assets generate on-chain revenue and can be valued using cash flow. Protocols like Uniswap and Aave already have more stable revenues than many listed companies. DefiLlama's data is clear—not just telling a story, but real money $BTC $ETH $OKB
But for BTC, this framework doesn't apply. Bitcoin has no income, no cash flow, and can't be calculated by price-to-earnings ratio. It still relies on scarcity, ETF flows, macro interest rates, and stored value narratives to price it. The limit of 21 million is stricter than any cash flow.
So the revenue metric is not a universal valuation framework for crypto assets. It applies to some protocols and tokens with cash flow, but not Bitcoin. BTC is a different species.
On the market side, the 63,600 short position has already entered the market. The logic is related to the rebound after the data is realized. CPI and PPI have cooled simultaneously, and the data is indeed easing, but the Fed has not yet unified internally, and interest rate pricing in September will continue to fluctuate. The Bitcoin market has rebounded from 62,900 to around 63,600, with short-term sentiment mostly released; 63,600 is the lower edge of the earlier chip-dense zone. Set a stop loss at 64,500, targeting 62,000 to 62,500. On SanDisk's side, 1377 short positions ran at 1345, no rush to enter for now, wait until digestion is complete.
All of the above analyses are time-sensitive. You must set stop-loss orders for your orders. Good luck to you.超额收益=发生可逆危机的好公司×被情绪错杀的极低股价×市场空间极大的增长潜力×耐心等待时间的平方 分析目的：寻找一家业务简单易懂且具有深厚护城河的使命愿景驱动型公司，由诚实且理性的管理层经营，交叉确认目前股价是否低于其内在价值的买入时机。 危机投资模型NO.135 今日投研标的——科大国盾量子技术股份有限公司（688027） 科大国盾量子技术股份有限公司（688027）投研核心关键摘要 · Preview 报告日 2026-08-11；当前价 407.50 元（上一交易日 2026-08-11 收盘）；成长性公司框架。本摘要是 IC 报告与公开文章的浓缩继承版，供 3 分钟读懂核心。给出价值区间与研究结论，决策权归读者。完整分析见危机投资实验室！ 一句话核心 国盾量子是中国量子信息产业化里资源禀赋最厚、财务上最不可能死掉的国家队平台，但 407.50 元的现价隐含未来十年约 53% 的营收复合增速——高于本研究乐观情形敢假设的一切；这轮自高点 46% 的下跌是泡沫消化，不是错杀，结论：回避 / 观望。 这家公司到底干嘛 一句话讲清业务：当一座城市要建「量子保密通信网」、一家央企要买一台$SPCX
[AI Department Competitor Updates]
Zhipu released the GLM5.3 modelThe most interesting battle in the US stock market right now may not be NVDA or AMD, but rather Robinhood's gradual teardown of the boundaries of traditional brokerages.
In the past, many people saw it as a typical "retail investor sentiment stock" in the $HOOD. When the market is good, young people frantically buy stocks, options, and crypto; trading volume rises, Robinhood makes money; When the market cools down, users stop messing around, and income naturally drops. So its stock price is tightly linked to BTC, Meme, and US stock risk appetite over the long term.
But now, Robinhood clearly doesn't want to keep making a living.
Stocks, options, and crypto are just entry points; later on, it expands into retirement accounts, cash management, credit cards, prediction markets, and even tokenized stocks. The logic is getting clearer: what it wants isn't for you to occasionally open the app to trade TSLA or buy a bit of DOGE, but to put all your money scattered across banks, brokerages, and crypto exchanges into one account.
That's why I think HOOD and COIN will be more likely to collide in the future.
Previously, the two companies had clear divisions of labor. If they wanted to buy US stocks, they would go to Robinhood; if they wanted to buy assets like $BTC or SOL, go to Coinbase. But now, as HOOD keeps adding crypto products, COIN is expanding into stablecoins, payments, derivatives, and even more traditional asset directions. In the end, both sides are actually competing for the same thing: the financial gateway for young people.
Even CRCL is squeezing into this war.
If USDC really becomes a payment and settlement tool in the future, the boundaries between brokerage accounts, crypto wallets, and bank accounts will become increasingly blurred. Previously, salaries were transferred to the bank, then transferred to brokers to buy stocks, then to exchanges to buy coins; In the future, these steps could be compressed into a single app. With USDC, you can buy stocks, buy SOL, make payments, and even generate returns from idle funds. At that point, users won't care whether they use a "brokerage" or a "crypto platform"—they only care where the assets are most comprehensive, cost-effective, and the best experience.
But HOOD's biggest risk now is precisely that the market has already started to factor in this future in advance.
From a platform that makes money through retail trading to a truly comprehensive financial account, the difference isn't adding a few more buttons, but whether users are willing to keep more assets in the long term. If everyone still only opens the HOOD during bull markets to trade options and buy crypto, and doesn't launch for half a year during a bear market, then it will ultimately remain a highly cyclical business.
So now, looking at $HOOD, I don't really care how much trading volume the next DOGE or TSLA surge will contribute to it.
What really matters is whether user assets are still growing when the market isn't as crazy.
COIN wants to transform from a crypto exchange into an on-chain financial gateway, Robinhood wants to transform from an internet brokerage into a gateway to all assets, and Circle wants USDC to become the cash flow between these platforms.
The three companies seem to be running three businesses, but in the end, they might compete for the same spot—who will be the first young person to see all their assets when they open their phones.
In the past, Wall Street was fighting over who managed your money.
Right now, $HOOD and $COIN are arguing over which app your money actually lives in.
#HOOD #COIN #CRCL #USDC #SOL #DOGE #TSLA #美股 #Crypto #欧易星球闪迪这波暴力拉升，我为什么选择做空？
闪迪昨晚的投资者日确实够炸。
80%毛利率、75%营业利润率、100%超额现金返还股东，这三个数字一出来，市场直接疯了。当天收涨13.67%报1528美元，今天盘前继续插针到1635美元，年内累计涨幅455%。
存储板块跟着集体狂欢，美光、SK海力士、西部数据全部大涨。
但我不太理解这种涨法。
一周前的8月6日，闪迪才刚刚因为下一季度的营收指引不及预期，盘前暴跌超10%。花旗、富国银行、杰富瑞集体下调目标价，杰富瑞从3000美元直接砍到1750美元。
杰富瑞说得挺清楚的：NAND价格涨幅在收窄6月季度ASP环比涨33%，9月季度指引已经降到只有8%左右。短期盈利增长最快的阶段，可能正在过去。
基本面没变，消息面变了，股价就能从暴跌到暴涨。这本身就很说明问题。
我依旧做空闪迪，1520美元进的。
说实话这个仓位有点危险，毕竟现在盘前已经干到1635了。但我设了分批加仓的机制，下去了会做仓位调整，拉上来了再调价位。
我的判断是，今晚美股开盘可能还会继续拉一波，不是为了让你赚钱，是为了清掉止损盘，把空头打爆，让没人敢做空。
当然这只是我的个人判断。
我做的是大杠杆，本金不大，换算到小杠杆也就成几十U几十U了。
这种仓位其实很危险，所以我一般不轻易出手。但像闪迪这种，一天前还在1200-1300晃悠，一条消息直接往1700怼，在我看来太虚了。
这种消息驱动的暴力拉升，只要出来一丁点利空，就会变成恐慌式砸盘。
我之前做过闪迪的多单，那时候900多点，也是全仓压上去，穷途末路的感觉。所以我现在对闪迪的波动有心理阴影。
目前我还是看空。
实在坚持不住我可能会锁仓，虽然我对锁仓操作也不怎么擅长，之前我做多的那段经历，如果不锁仓的话我可能现在都已经到1000U的目标了。
最后还是那句话：顺势而为，别学我。
多军现在力量确实大，刚才一波买盘直接冲上1635，太恐怖了。没有大心脏的人，别碰闪迪。
钟摆摆得越高，回落时的冲击就越猛。
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 🧠 先理清一个底层逻辑：$XCRCL这轮行情，市场交易的早就不再是“稳定币发行量”这个单一指标，而是一张通往数字美元基础设施的车票。USDC流通盘稳定在720亿规模，Q2营收保持韧性，这些只是基本盘；真正让机构资金愿意下注的，是Arc主网在9月16日的正式上线——它把Circle从“发币的”变成“搭台子的”，这个叙事切换才是估值重塑的核心引擎。 📊 看多的人盯的是长坡厚雪：BlackRock、Visa、DTCC这些名字出现在验证节点名单上，等于传统金融巨头用脚投票，承认链上美元结算通道的合法性。这不是简单的合作公关，而是把USDC嵌入全球最核心的支付清算流程里。一旦资产代币化、链上回购、跨境结算这些场景跑通，Circle的护城河会从“流动性规模”升级为“标准制定权”。 ⚠️ 但看空的人也没错。稳定币是个高敏感度的利率游戏：美联储降息周期一旦开启，USDC的储备金收益会被压缩，Circle的利润模型就要重新算账；更别说合规成本、监管反复、以及来自摩根大通这种传统巨头的自有链上货币实验。竞争格局不是“有没有人挑战”，而是“挑战者什么时候拿出杀手锏”。 🎯 所以当前的盘面波动剧烈，本质$SNDK
If it's not SanDisk, what are you going to do! The Investor Day just gave a growth forecast for 2030, and the market immediately treated it as if it had to be realized tomorrow, resulting in a straight 100-point surge.
My short position opened at 1542 hasn't even warmed up, and I was taken out early. When it falls, it drags on slowly; when it rallies, it doesn't even give the shorts a moment to breathe.#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets Those who shorted SanDisk at 1350 must have been in a tough spot—a big bullish candlestick only to see a flat loss of $200. You are betting on price corrections, but funds are betting on the long-term market trend of AI storage. After an investor day meeting, the stock price soared in line with the trend. SanDisk investors made three major plans daily, with intraday gains of 17.6% and closing up 13.67%, holding above $1560. Many short positions were deeply trapped. There are three core positive factors behind the rally: First, signing a $93.9 billion long-term supply agreement to lock in forward revenue. Eight major clients have finalized long-term contracts, covering the vast majority of shipments in the 2027-2028 fiscal year, with guaranteed minimum revenue of $93.9 billion, plus $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. Orders are being delivered realistically, not just empty promises. Second, the AI storage sector is entering a boom cycle. The flash memory market size is expected to soar from 60 billion USD in previous years to over 300 billion USD by 2026, and approach 500 billion yuan by 2027. Third, the ultra-high profit target has been implemented. For fiscal years 2028-2030, the target is a gross margin of 80% and an operating profit margin of 75%. The company promises to return all excess cash flow to shareholders. Position data is clear at a glance, with bulls clearly dominating: 447 long positions with unrealized gains of 27.56 million, win rate 84.78%; 588 short positions had unrealized losses of 4.59 million, with a win rate of only 14.28%. Once you choose the wrong direction in trading, no matter how many positions you hold, you'll only keep losing blood. Let's talk about how to deal with being stuck on a 1350 short position: Light position stuck: wait for the price to fall back to 1480-15