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[ETH | $1900 Fails Twice, What ETH Might Lack Now Is Not Capital, But a Breakout]
ETH has now fallen to around $1870-$1880. After attempting to break through $1900, it was again pulled down by selling pressure, with $1850 serving as important short-term support.
Interestingly, ETH spot ETFs have recently continued to see continuous net inflows, indicating institutional funds have not fully withdrawn, but the price has not steadily stabilized above $1900.
So from a contract perspective, I'm more focused on whether **$1900 can hold again**: only by holding and increasing volume can there be a chance to further open up the upside space; If $1850 still can't hold, be cautious of further widening of the long stop-loss level.
Do you think ETH is gathering strength to break through $1900 this time, or is the rally ending and preparing to continue pushing back?
#ETH #Ethereum #合约交易$ETH
From the current technical structure, ETH has completed a recovery after a round of pullbacks, showing a slightly stronger oscillating pattern over the 15-minute period. The MACD has strengthened again and the Bollinger Bands have closed, indicating the market is preparing a new direction. In the short term, 1882-1885 is a key resistance level that bulls must break. Once effective volume increases and stabilizes, there is a chance to continue testing 1890-1900; If it fails to break through, it is more likely to remain oscillating within the 1870-1885 range, waiting for new news or capital support. Currently, the market overall is still influenced by macro data and risk appetite, so trading is better for waiting for a breakout confirmation rather than chasing gains at resistance levels.SanDisk$SNDK made a big picture on Investor Day, and the market rose first.
The company said that from 2028 to 2030, revenue will grow steadily every year, gross margin will reach 80%, operating profit margin will reach 75%, and all the money earned except for reinvestment will be returned 100% to shareholders. The stock price rose 13.7% that day, surpassing $1,600.
What's going up? On one hand, the story of AI storage is still ongoing. SanDisk has launched a new product called HBF, targeting AI inference scenarios, with capacity 16 times that of HBM, effectively opening up a new track. On the other hand, eight major clients have signed long-term agreements, selling 50% of capacity in 2027 and two-thirds in 2028, with guaranteed revenue of $93.9 billion—much more certain than before.
The company has also committed to returning more than half of free cash flow to shareholders, with a repurchase quota of 15.5 billion.
But the problem is, these targets have already been priced in advance by the market. This year, SanDisk's highest price rose to $2354, but later, due to guidance for next quarter falling short of expectations, it fell to around 1200. Brokerages are calling for 3000 and 2200, but the forward PE is only 7 times—showing the market is still skeptical about whether it can be delivered.
$BTC Regarding storage, the trend of storage stocks is not directly tied to BTC, but it serves as a sentiment indicator for the AI hardware sector. SanDisk's ability to hold steady shows that AI demand hasn't stopped and serves as a bottom line for the broader market. But this round of rally is a "pie three years from now," not "money now."
#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term goals remain to be verified Either increase dividends or buy back shares; in any case, they should find a way to return real cash to shareholders.
Of course, Maotai's dividends have not been low over the years, and the core reason is easy to understand — Maotai Group holds about 60% of the listed company's shares.
The more dividends paid, the more cash the major shareholder receives.
Therefore, compared to buybacks, dividends obviously better meet the major shareholder's cash flow needs.
Thirdly, and what I think is the most noteworthy chart: the exit of the national team.
From the list of the top ten tradable shareholders this time, Central Huijin and China Securities Finance Corporation no longer appear.
As for whether they have completely liquidated their positions or the specific reduction path, further confirmation is needed with complete holding data.
But at least from the shareholder structure perspective, the signal is already very clear:
Maotai is undergoing a comprehensive change from channels, profits to shareholder structure.
The golden era of baijiu is over.
What really determines Maotai's future valuation now may no longer be "how much more it can rise," but whether, after the slowdown in growth, it can continue to provide shareholders with sufficiently stable cash returns. Short $SNDK for $1000!
Not sure if I can last until the end
I still firmly believe this is a rebound after an oversell
The reason is:
In a bull market, there won't be a drop of more than 50%
Whether it's SanDisk or Hynix $SKHYNIX
Both have experienced such a large correction
This indicates that the main funds have already left
The trend has reversed
This rebound was driven by multiple positive news released during Investor Day
#SandiskInvestorDayRally #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 Since August, Bitcoin miners have deposited over 50,000 BTC in a certain place.
The single-day peak exceeded 8,000 tokens, significantly higher than usual.
Miners are selling, and operating costs are there—at the end of March, listed miners lost nearly $19,000 per Bitcoin mined.
The cash cost line is around $80,000, the token price is over $62,000, and every miner you mine loses money. Some miners are managing liquidity to prepare for future operating expenses in advance.
Core Scientific signed an $8.7 billion AI hosting contract, while Hut 8 holds a $26.6 billion AI infrastructure contract.
50,000 BTC is just the known figure.
Only they know how much stock miners still have. Once this group starts selling continuously, the market's support will gradually be worn down.
When ETF inflows in, you can't see it, but once ETF inflows slow, these 50,000 coins become real selling pressure $BTC The JPY shorts are still holding the line; once the September rate hike hits, the whole world will have to tremble along
Short positions surged to a nine-year high not long ago
Every short position, in essence, is a potential forced buyer
The death spiral is already turning:
As the yen falls to around 160—its weakest level in 40 years—the Bank of Japan is likely to hike rates in September to defend it
Carry trades are forced to unwind
To buy back yen, you have to sell what you’re holding
The first thing sold will be U.S. Treasuries
Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries
The yield on 30-year Treasuries is already 5.26%, the highest since 2007
With forced selling, yields can surge even higher
The U.S. government’s interest on debt alone is already $1.25 trillion a year
If it goes higher than that, they truly can’t carry it
At that point, the Federal Reserve will have to choose between two options: support the bond market or protect against inflation
Most likely, it will support the bond market
Trump’s side will also pressure the Fed to do the same
The result is continued money printing
Middle-class real income gets wiped out
Floating-rate debt and small businesses are the first to fail
A consumption cliff
With lower tax revenue, the deficit gets bigger
The global economic crisis kicks off directly
Don’t forget: Japan is almost 100% reliant on imported oil, and it still has to pay for it in dollars
That’s a structural sell pressure on the yen—not something a couple of interventions can fix
Two weeks ago, the U.S. and Japan jointly intervened, and the yen popped up
But now it has already given back half
The market simply doesn’t believe
This round is different from beforeIran is still on fire; with China facing pressure from the tech race, oil prices are heading higher, and consumer confidence is already worse than at the peak of the Great Depression
The situation is getting worse every day—we don’t know when it will end
$BTC $ETH $OKB It's exploded, totally messed up, profits are declining, and the national team has even pulled out.
Last night, Kweichow Moutai's half-year report was released, and something feels off. The overall performance was significantly below expectations.
Revenue for the first half of the year was about ¥90.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of only 1.47%; net profit excluding non-recurring items was about ¥44.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.04%.
Looking at the second quarter alone, the pressure is even more obvious:
Revenue dropped about 9.2% year-on-year, net profit excluding non-recurring items fell about 6.88%, roughly 10% lower than previous institutional expectations.
This is no longer just a simple "slowdown in growth," but core profits have started to show negative growth.
But I think there are actually a few changes in Moutai's financial report that are truly worth paying attention to:
First, direct sales are getting stronger while distributors are weakening.
In the first half, Moutai's direct sales revenue was about ¥51.9 billion, accounting for more than half of total revenue. Previously relying on a large distributor system, it is now accelerating the shift to direct sales and the consumer end. When the industry was booming, the distributor system helped expand the market; but as the industry enters an adjustment period, these intermediaries have become costs and risks. So what Moutai is doing now is essentially reorganizing its sales system.
Second, the cash flow is impressively strong.
Net cash flow from operating activities was about ¥70.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 400%.
The cash on hand has also reached about ¥184.8 billion.
They can still earn over ¥80 billion a year, and have this much cash sitting idle.
My simple view:
Don't just let the money lie in the account. 一个特别魔幻的现象出现了——美股那边标普和纳指涨得风生水起，$BTC却跟个没事人似的往6.3万下面钻。说好的跷跷板呢？说好的正相关呢？全都不好使了。
这两天看着满屏的美股绿、币圈红，估计不少人心里直打鼓。但我跟你说，这事儿要只看表面，那可就亏大了。这哪是什么资金跷跷板，这是比特币正在经历一场底层的定价逻辑重构。
以前我们习惯了"美股涨币圈跟"的剧本，但现在这个剧本废了。你把美债收益率摊开看看，机构躺着就有5%的无风险收益，凭什么来加密市场冒险？在降息预期一直被往后推的背景下，大钱宁愿去拥抱有业绩支撑的科技股。比特币正在从"高弹性风险资产"向"独立定价的大宗商品"过渡，这个过渡期啊，注定是难熬的。
再看衍生品那边，更是暗流涌动。$BCH空头在加码，$HBAR资金费率负得离谱——这都是流动性萎缩的典型症状。没有增量资金进场，存量博弈就是纯零和游戏，谁先扛不住谁买单。30天波动率掉到36%以下了，金融市场的规律就是这样——越平静，后面的风暴越猛。多头空头都在等一个决定性的信号。
所以现在的策略就一句话：管住手，多看少动。ETF流出只是情绪宣泄，真正决定方向的，是接下来的美联储表态和Clarity法案的进展。方向没明朗之前，比的是谁拿得住、谁不瞎动。这才是最高级的操作。
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 On Friday, Cboe BZX exchange submitted an application to the SEC to launch the first U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs with 3x leverage.
The six products cover BTC, ETH, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas, all with 3x leverage.
A 3x leveraged ETF is not meant for long-term holding; intraday fluctuations can wipe out your principal.
But once approved, it will provide institutions with a new hedging tool—leveraging small amounts of capital to leverage large positions. If the direction is right, returns are amplified; if the direction is wrong, losses can be faster.
Cboe himself admitted that the leverage structure does not meet the general listing standards and requires special SEC approval. The SEC's Reg Crypto meeting was just postponed indefinitely due to "scheduling conflicts."
One side is blocking, the other is opening new openings, and the direction is not unified. If approved, BTC's volatility could be further amplified $ETH
$BTC Analysts say Bitcoin is transitioning from a "bear market phase" to an "accumulation phase."
Prices have been compressed, and the macro backdrop remains hawkish—US-Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and big players selling.
The net holding change indicator for long-term holders reached 1.29 million BTC per 30 days on May 24, marking a six-year high.
August closed lower for four consecutive years, with an average drop of 19.38%. Following this pattern, BTC could reach $51,900 or even lower.
The actual loss hit a record $1.37 billion in February, 19% higher than the $1.15 billion in June 2022. The reading has dropped to $597 million, a decrease of 56.5%. Some analysts believe it is too early to say the worst is over.
Coinbase's "accumulation phase" and the "Crypto is Dead" narrative appeared simultaneously. The forecast of 51,900 and long-term holder accumulation at a six-year high are battling. One data point says prices are still falling, another says someone is buying. Both sides have data support, but the direction hasn't emerged yet $BTC $BTC the 63K threshold, BTC has been lying low for another day.
I managed to get 62.5K, bounced back, but just couldn't stand at 63K.
The most interesting thing is: spot money keeps flowing in, with 12 bars in the red in three hours, positive news keeps coming, yet the price just doesn't move.
Looking at the contracts, it's even more outrageous: funding rates are close to the ground, leverage is low, but open interest is increasing, and the basis is still negative.
What does this indicate?
It's not that no one answers, but that someone does, but they can't do it.
After grinding for a week at 65K, it can't even hold above 63K, with the low dropping from 62.8K all the way up to 62.5K.
So now I'm not rushing to buy the dip, nor is I following Planet in shouting for a reversal.
If 63K doesn't hold steady again, all rebounds should be treated as rebounds first.
Wait until real money pushes the price above this threshold before talking about a bull market. #加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced? Norges Bank updated its holdings data from Norges Bank Investment Management yesterday.
As of June 30, the sovereign fund's indirect Bitcoin exposure has increased by about 62% compared to the end of 2024.
The amount of BTC bought directly on the open market was not large; the main increase was in MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital stocks.
Norwegian sovereign wealth funds are among the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world. What they do is not bet on Bitcoin's short-term price fluctuations but gain exposure to crypto assets using traditional financial instruments. Norwegians have taken this path, and Abu Dhabi's Mubadala has followed the same path. Sovereign funds hold Bitcoin indirectly through stocks and ETFs, avoiding the regulatory and custody issues associated with direct cryptocurrency holdings. This trend has clearly accelerated in the first half of 2026. Norwegian sovereign wealth fund rebalancing is usually quarterly and does not change direction due to short-term price fluctuations $BTC Matt Hougan from Bitwise talked about something on a podcast last week.
He said the number of financial advisors they met with in the past month is three times that of the same period in 2025.
Advisors are entering the market faster but still small in scale, with an average allocation size between 1% and 3%.
A family office managing $1 billion, with a 2% allocation, would be $20 million, which would be a buying price of several thousand BTC on the market.
A triple number of inquiries means institutional advisors are accelerating their learning about crypto asset allocation.
At the 62,000 level, Bitcoin is already nearly 50% cheaper than this year's high.
The job of institutional advisors is long-term allocation, not short-term trading. They learn at this level not because they think prices are about to rise, but because prices have already fallen to a level they can explain to clients $BTC On-chain data signals faster than the market itself. In the past 24 hours, LINK had 246 large transfers, hitting a five-month high. Among the single movements exceeding 100,000, 213,800 were withdrawn from trading platforms to Gnosis Safe. This kind of custodial outflow is usually not typical of short-term sales. After the whale surged 5% above 9, it did not pull back; instead, the circulating order closed even tighter. The current price on the market is at 9.038, hovering at the upper boundary, with a large number of short stop losses piled up between 9.17 and 9.35. Once volume breaks out, it signals a short squeeze; the downward 8.6 to 8.8 is the recent bullish liquidation zone. Just hiding outside the rider station to wipe sweat, my phone was so hot I didn't dare touch my ear, almost missing the defensive level. Not chasing the rally here; short-term overbought requires pullbacks to digest. If it pulls back to 8.72 to 8.85 and holds hold, enter long, stop loss below 8.56, target 9.32 first, then 9.45; if it rises directly above 9.18 with volume following, chase long and defend below 9.02, targeting 9.45 to 9.60. If it falls below 8.6, give up; bull liquidation will accelerate the decline.
$LINK
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
@OKX planet Bitcoin has returned to this level around 62,900 today.
Last night, it surged above 64,000, then dropped like a needle, and now it's shaking at 62,900.
How many times has the 63,000 threshold been touched?
Going back and forth, getting caught going up and then being picked up by someone else when you come down.
Over the past week, it has repeatedly fluctuated between 62,000 and 64,000, with a weak sense of direction.
Today's drop is not closely related to macro factors. The People's Bank of China injected $51.7 billion into the banking system this morning, which should be a positive for loose liquidity. But BTC didn't follow suit and instead fell. $51.7 billion flowing into the banking system is different from flowing into the crypto market—there's a layer of capital controls in between. Not all liquidity flows to the same place.
In the past 24 hours, $88 million was liquidated across the network, with BTC accounting for 31.84 million, long positions blowing up 54 million, and short positions 34 million. Both sides are bleeding $BTC The pressure on the miners' side is still building.
At the beginning of the year, listed mining companies held about 127,000 BTC, but now only 99,000 remain, having sold 28,000 BTC, valued at $1.78 billion.
Miners' reserves dropped 22%, but this was not panic selling; they continued monthly sales.
Some mining companies have already converted their mines into AI data centers, with miners transforming and computing power moving toward AI.
Sellers didn't disappear, just replaced a batch. ETFs were injecting money, miners were selling off. From August 3 to 7, ETFs bought 850 million, the price jumped from 63,000 to 65,000, then stopped. On August 13, ETFs saw another 61.16 million outflows, with BlackRock and Fidelity running simultaneously. Buyers and sellers competed at the same price, unable to push the other. ETF direction was changing, but the momentum wasn't strong enough to form a trend.
If the 62,000 level can't be held, it may go down to 60,000 or even lower. If it holds, 65,000 will be the next hurdle. Spot trading volume has shrunk to its lowest level since 2019; no one is buying or selling, and the market is stuck here. Wait for a catalyst to push buyers out or exhaust the last batch of sellers $BTC Glassnode released data today, and the options market is quite interesting.
Short-term implied volatility has dropped to 26%, but the 6-month term is still at 39%.
No one expects a major market rally in the short term, but long-term uncertainty is still pricing in.
Gamma exposure signals are more direct—negative Gamma is concentrated near $60,000, while positive Gamma is piling up near $70,000. This means that if prices go down, market makers' hedging will accelerate the decline; If prices rebound to around 70,000, market makers will actually stabilize the market. Between 62,000 and 70,000 is almost a vacuum zone; once the price effectively breaks through 63,000, resistance above may be weaker than expected. The current market structure favors bears, but not enough for bears to buy positions with confidence.
AI stocks have already surpassed Bitcoin's volatility; SOXX's 60-day volatility has surged to 70%, while BTC is only about 30%. Funds flowing out of AI may flow toward BTC. But this logic hasn't materialized on the market yet. The direction hasn't been decided yet; wait until 62,000 is broken or 63,000 rises above before talking $BTC BTC reserves on exchanges saw their first net increase in three months in mid-August, adding about 12,000 BTC.
Previously, exchange balances had been declining, which the market generally interpreted as supply tightening. Now, this trend has temporarily stopped.
These 12,000 BTC may not be intended to be dumped. Galaxy Digital transferred 600 BTC to exchanges, most likely for over-the-counter settlement, not directly to the market. But the shift in reserve direction itself is worth noting—at least it shows some people have chosen to move coins from cold wallets back into the trading environment. FTX losses are still ongoing, with about 2,000 to 3,000 BTC flowing into the market each week. This selling force is slowly being absorbed by the market. Increasing reserves does not necessarily lead to price drops, but it changes the previous narrative.
$BTC Sell positions in Broadcom and Apple, buy Nvidia, UAE sovereign fund reallocates holdings!
According to the latest 13F filing, UAE sovereign investment institution Mubadala has cleared out $AVGO, $CRM, and $AAPL, while also creating new $NVDA positions to increase holdings in $MU and $PLTR.
If you only look at the sell list, it's easy to assume that big money is pulling out of tech stocks.
But considering the newly increased holdings, a more accurate judgment is that AI-related stocks are being reselected.
Mubadala shifted funds to NVIDIA and Micron, which are more directly connected to computing power and storage needs.
However, its simultaneous reduction of holdings in ARM and GLOBALFOUNDRIES shows that it is not a full bet on semiconductors, but rather a trade-off among individual stocks.
The fund also bought Ford, Phillips 66, and United Health, and increased holdings in financial and healthcare stocks such as AIG and CVS.
These positions can reduce portfolio volatility during tech pullbacks.
It should be noted that 13F discloses holdings at the end of the previous quarter, which is lagging and cannot show all assets held by the fund through other entities.
Some of the signals sent here are: big money is no longer blindly buying most tech leaders.
It can be seen that in the upcoming market, companies with AI concepts that can fulfill orders and profits are more likely to attract capital.
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up The number of daily coin burns has risen significantly over the past week, roughly double that of the previous week.
This indicator rises to indicate that long-standing Bitcoin is moving again, usually when market structure changes.
Long-term holders have started moving; these addresses have been locked up for months, and recently have started transferring tokens out in batches, with some flowing to exchanges. They haven't sold on a large scale yet, but the direction has already changed. An address that established a position in 2017 transferred about 500 BTC to a new address last week, then transferred some more into exchanges. Such actions have become increasingly frequent in the past two weeks. Long-term tokens are loosening, and chip turnover is happening at the market bottom $BTC The spread between the Asian and New York sessions has recently narrowed.
In recent months, buying interest during the US trading session has been noticeably stronger than in the Asian session, and this spread has basically disappeared recently.
The gap between selling pressure in the Asian session and buying in the US session is narrowing, and the forces on both sides are moving toward balance.
The sell order wall above 64,000 is indeed slowly being eaten, but the pace is very slow. A small platform formed near 63,000, stabilized here after a sharp drop, with no significant increase in volume nor further decline. It seems more like natural trading is happening, not someone forcibly trying to stabilize the market.
The market has entered a new equilibrium—buyers are weak, and sellers are not in a hurry. The 62,000-64,000 range is wearing down the patience of both bulls and bears. Waiting for a catalyst to break this balance. This catalyst may come from macro data or regulatory levels. Before a catalyst appears, prices are likely to continue rubbing repeatedly within this range. This sideways movement is not easy for short-term traders; the space is too small and stop-loss settings are difficult $BTC Grayscale started moving this week.
It's not the usual GBTC redemption process; it's a cold wallet address transferring old BTC on-chain in batches.
These addresses were never sold when they were $120,000 in 2021, but now they're starting to move.
It may not be mass selling; at the bottom, loosening old money is normal for chip turnover. But the direction has indeed changed. From "stagnant holding" to "rotating outward in batches," this difference is more meaningful than how much was transferred.
The 63,000 level has been worn down for almost a month. BTC inflows to exchanges have dropped to their lowest level in nearly three months; no one is depositing coins to sell, and sellers are shrinking. When prices move sideways, neither buyers nor sellers move, but if sellers exit first, buyers move slightly and the price rebounds.
On the miners' side, hash rate continues to decline. It dropped from 1,150 EH/s to 886, a 23% decrease. Core Scientific and TeraWulf are already shifting toward AI data centers. Miners are transforming, selling isn't over yet, but selling power is gradually depleting. Spot trading volume has shrunk to its lowest level since 2019. Extreme contraction itself is a signal, at least indicating that selling pressure is about to dry up $BTC The SEC's Reg Crypto meeting scheduled for Friday was abruptly halted.
The reason was "scheduling conflicts," and the new date had not yet been set.
Last week, Paul Atkins just said that if the CLARITY Act doesn't work, the SEC will make its own rules.
Before he could finish, the meeting was canceled.
The chairman threatened to act, but the department immediately pressed pause. The SEC's path is now unclear; the CLARITY Act has been pushed until after September. The longer regulatory games drag on, the less institutional funds dare to move.
CryptoQuant released a report yesterday stating that BTC inflows to exchanges have dropped to their lowest level in nearly three months.
No one is depositing coins to sell; sellers are actively shrinking.
Grayscale's old money is starting to loosen, and FTX still maintains a weekly supply of 2,000–3,000 BTC. FTX's $2.2 billion compensation is also being reflowed, but the speed and direction of the reflow are unclear.
Long-term holders are starting to lose money.
In 2015, 2018, and 2022, every time long-term holders lost money, the market was at the bottom. This time, it's not exactly the same as the previous three times, but the direction is the same.
At this level, there's no rush to add or reduce positions. Wait for the direction to come out before moving; these few days won't matter. If 63,000 breaks, look at 62,000; if 62,000 breaks, look at 60,000. If you hold on, keep holding; nothing complicated $BTC Yesterday, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released: among the 12 policymakers at the July FOMC, 3 advocated for rate hikes.
For the first time since 2016, three opposing votes appeared, all advocating a 25 basis point rate hike.
BTC hasn't crashed, and 62,000 is still there. Judging by the reaction, the market's "words" about the Fed have already become dulled.
The first time this news came out, it dropped; the second time it dropped a bit; the third time, there was basically no response.
If hawkish rhetoric weakens its impact on the market, then what truly drives the market shift must be real liquidity changes, not policy statements themselves.
The fact that prices do not react is itself a signal that the market is gathering strength $BTC MicroStrategy's mNAV is now around 0.98, and its stock price is even cheaper than the Bitcoin it holds.
A company holding 840,000 BTC is valued lower by the market than its coin.
The longer this situation continues, the more limited Saylor's financing capacity will become.
mNAV falling below 1 means the pattern of buying coins through additional stock issuance has been broken. Previously, the market gave MicroStrategy a premium because it provided a "leveraged Bitcoin buy" channel; now, the discount indicates the channel itself is depreciating.
The discount itself weakens the company's financing capacity, which in turn diminishes its ability to continue increasing its Bitcoin holdings.
The question now is: when will this discount be erased—either Bitcoin rises, or the market re-prices the company's operating segment. Until the discount returns above 1, MicroStrategy's coin buying engine is stalled $BTC The largest BTC short on the chain increased their positions again today.
A whale had just added 258 BTC short positions five minutes ago, bringing the total position to 1,900 BTC, $125 million, with an average opening price of $63,582.
This guy started building short positions in early August and has been increasing them all the way to now, with a current unrealized profit of $1.79 million.
63,582 is the opening price, current price is around 62,900, a difference of 700 dollars, unrealized profit of 1.79 million. The 125 million position earned less than 2 million, indicating low leverage and a wide stop-loss setting.
There are many shorts at this position, but very few actually dare to sell their positions down to 125 million $BTC Santiment released data today saying that the narrative "Crypto is Dead" is spreading rapidly among investors.
Whenever "Crypto is Dead" becomes a mainstream narrative, it often becomes one of the bottom's features.
This narrative appeared at the end of 2018, in March 2020, and after the FTX collapse in 2022, and then the market rebounded.
Now, at 63,000, down 50% from its all-time high, the "Crypto is Dead" rhetoric is back. The market at the bottom is often accompanied by the most desperate voices.
No one knows the true nature of this story, but this narrative itself is a signal.
$BTC 1）盘面有没有回答？美元指数跌至99.471，创一周低位，美国两年期债息一度跌破4.1厘，反映短期利率预期走软。这可能让资金从高息资产流出，转向流动性更宽松的亚洲市场，但恒生指数开盘前仍需看南向资金动向。
2）真正影响在哪里？零售销售数据下滑，直接拖累美元走弱，商品货币走强，显示全球风险偏好或有松动。日本央行可能在9月加息，若市场预期转向宽松，港股作为亚洲资产可能获得支撑。但这一路径仍需验证，尤其在美债利率未明确转向前。
3）两面都要看；偏积极的信号是美元走弱，可能降低海外资金对港股的估值压力；不利的一面是若美国经济数据持续疲软，市场可能转向避险，港股核心公司估值或被重新定价。
仅作信息与市场情景分析，不构成投资建议。加密资产波动较大，请独立研究并控制风险。Shorting a coin that is being lifted by emotions is like swimming against the waves during a receding tide—the more you try, the futile it becomes. Have you ever had that moment—when you logically think you're right, but the market just doesn't give you any face? $SNDK Before the market opened, it broke through 1600. I stared at the 1515 short position, with only one thought in mind: this isn't a technical issue—funds simply don't intend to give the bears any way out. On the surface, CPI and PPI cooled simultaneously, rate hike disagreements were put on the table, the S&P hit new highs, and a peaceful scene of "risk appetite warming." But the real structure at the bottom is: the funds aren't casting a wide net; they're just precisely and stubbornly flowing to a few corners with the strongest narrative. - FlashDisk's rise isn't due to fundamentals, but the market's greed for "scarcity." It doesn't need positive news; it is itself an emotional amplifier. - The more people want to wait for a pullback to get on board, the less likely a pullback will come. Short sellers keep adding positions, which ironically becomes fuel and pushes prices even higher. - Talking about "whether to cut losses" at this time is actually asking the wrong question. The real question is: why would I bet on a stock with such obsessive funds and suddenly become rational? I understand the torment of holding positions. If you don't watch the market, you fear it might sneak you up; if you do, you feel like you're being toyed with by the market again and again. But to be honest, in this kind of market, the counterpart to the short position isn't your own judgment, but the fear of the entire short-selling group. They aren't afraid of chasing highs; what they fear is never getting on board again. They've seen a lotThe market is in a weak and divergent state, there is no sign of confirming a new uptrend. 1. BTC is still the focus of Bitcoin around the $63,000 area, after failing to maintain the momentum of breaking above $64,000–65,000. Notably, recent US economic data is quite favorable for risk assets: the CPI in July fell to 3.4%, the core CPI was 2.5%, while the PPI also cooled. However, the organizers have not yet reacted strongly. 👉 This shows that the current problem does not simply lie in inflation. Cash flow and investor sentiment$ETH In the early hours of the U.S. stock market close, many expected the storage sector to take off collectively, but reality turned into a stark contrast. Let's first review the overall market landscape: the three major indices fluctuated and tug-of-war throughout the day, with the S&P steadily holding its high range, the Nasdaq under pressure and slightly retreating, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging before quickly retreating, with the internal gap between strength and weakness widening wide.
With the CPI data coming in line with market expectations, most funds expect the Fed to keep the current interest rate level unchanged. The market has not experienced a full-blown bull market; incremental funds are reluctant to spread across the board, with a large number of tokens flocking into the AI storage niche. On the other hand, capital flows are worth noting: BTC spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $131 million that day, with funds continuously withdrawing from crypto assets and shifting direction into US tech assets.
The internal hierarchical gap in the sector is obvious. Let's first focus on this round's absolute leader, $SNDK SanDisk. The stock closed up 7.39%, with a single-day turnover reaching 33.8 billion yuan. Trading volume continued to expand throughout the day, reaching an intraday high of 1667 and closing steadily at 1641. In just five trading days, the cumulative increase exceeded 35%, making it the undisputed core main theme in the storage sector. After a rapid and continuous surge, the short-term market has entered a severely overbought state. Short-term key support is at 1565, with resistance at the previous high of 1667. A reminder not to blindly chase highs; it is better to wait for prices to retest support levels before looking for opportunities to gain positions.
#AMD完成历史最大美元债发行: Raised $4.75 billion BTC retests direction after failing to recapture 65K... The market is still in a defensive phase. What has already been reflected in prices, and what variables have yet to be introduced? As of the 14th, BTC was the central hub of the market. After BTC's attempt to break through 65K failed, it retreated to around 63.5K, and the Fear and Greed Index fell to 37, indicating weakened investor sentiment. This price level and sentiment figures are essentially interpreted as reflecting market participants' stance that "confirmation is needed for further gains" in the price. On the other hand, there are two variables that have yet to be reflected. One is the recovery of risk appetite, which could turn into an altcoin when BTC reclaims the 65.5K to 67K range, and the other is a liquidity revaluation when U.S. spot ETF flows expand again. In the period where BTC determines market direction, the relative strength of altcoins is significant. BNB and SOL showed relatively solid momentum among large-cap stocks. In particular, BNB Chain holds about a 33.6% share in the tokenized securities market.The two spots I waited for yesterday were both tried on Friday, but I couldn't hold on.
SPY $XSPY reached 778.80 intraday, closed at 776.34, but still couldn't break above 779.37; QQQ reached 734.39, closed at 731.07, 734 only showed up during the session. VIX, however, dropped to 14.25.
Given this situation, the market does not intend to go short.
Trading volume is somewhat thin: SPY and QQQ are only 64% and 60% of the 20-day average, respectively.
For now, I won't treat this as a bearish turn; I'll treat it as a high-level consolidation.
Next week, I'll first look at SPY's 774–776 and QQQ's 728–731.
Hold on, just wait for the next breakthrough;
PS: Cun, Guang, Yun—the direction doesn't seem bearish yet.Here's a less-than-expected capital perspective: this year, IPO financing in the AI sector has reached $256.4 billion, the highest since 2021, and the enthusiasm for AI in the secondary market is obvious. Where did this money come from? A large portion of it was transferred from crypto and other risk assets. This also explains why the recent $BTC has been shifting macro and easing rate hike expectations, yet it just can't rise—not because there's no good news, but because marginal funds in the market have been drawn away by the more attractive AI main line. Hot topics are limited, and attention and money are even more so. If BTC wants to regain control, it needs to wait for a story that belongs only to itself. Let's see.This post shares news unrelated to the crypto world but especially illustrates how the narrative can be reversed: after this US-Iran war, the US exposed a shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles—an advanced interceptor costs over $4 million and takes years to build, but drones costing tens of thousands each end end up losing more and more with each interception. Now the Pentagon has issued a final ultimatum: "Redo or obsolete," forcing giants like Boeing and Lockheed Martin to acquire cheap munitions worth two million or even less. You see, no matter how high the technical barrier, once cost efficiency can't be counted, the narrative flips in an instant. It's the same in transactions—don't fall in love with any "expensive is good" story. Those who know, understand.#AMD完成历史最大美元债发行: Raised $4.75 billion
Have you heard? AMD has $4.75 billion, the largest dollar bond in the company's history. The four maturities range from 3 to 10 years, with a 10-year coupon rate of 5.5%, narrowing by 25 basis points from the initial guidance. Sixteen Wall Street institutions underwrote and oversubscribed, directly pushing the interest rate down.
With $13.1 billion in cash on hand and only $3.2 billion in debt, AMD is not short of cash. But with $875 million in bonds maturing next month and the $5 billion investment promised to Anthropic, AMD is essentially holding back its ammunition in advance.
Nvidia just issued $25 billion in June, and Google did $25 billion in early August. On this road, everyone is running; no one wants to fall behind. AMD chose to issue bonds instead of stocks, not dilute shareholders, and used leverage to bet on AI chip shares.
The bond market's willingness to offer AMD such low interest rates is itself a signal—institutions believe AMD's AI story is worth betting on. But debt is debt; during economic downturns, leverage backfires even more. The $4.75 billion bet has already been placed; now it depends on whether the MI series can tear a piece of meat from Nvidia.Hormuz has another incident: Abu Dhabi's national oil company ADNOC confirmed that one of its vessels was attacked while sailing the strait on August 14, but fortunately there were no casualties and the situation is under control; Almost simultaneously, Iran's foreign minister stated that negotiations with the US have not yet been decided, only saying that Qatar and Pakistan are mediating messages. On one end is a shipping channel that could easily cause further conflict; on the other is a negotiation table that refuses to sit down—this tension will not loosen in the short term. The implications for the market are very direct: if the risk premium on oil prices cannot be removed, the tail end of inflation cannot be shaken off, and it will not be easy for rate hike expectations to completely die off. Let's wait and see.Good morning, BTC is currently fluctuating around 63,000, basically unchanged for 24 hours. The intraday high was 63,618, the low was 62,521, with a fluctuation of 1,100 dollars, but it still stayed the same price.
The macroeconomic data is actually quite good. US July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, core 2.5%, PPI cooled simultaneously, the probability of rates holding steady in September rose to 67.6%, and the probability of a rate hike dropped to 32.4%. Oil prices also fell from a high of $100 to around $80. The data was clearly positive, but BTC just couldn't rise.
The ETF outflow isn't great. Yesterday, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $131 million. Fidelity's FBTC saw a net outflow of $55.1 million, ARKB saw $58.8 million, and GBTC saw a net outflow of $36.3 million. Although there was still a net inflow of $521 million for the month, the total outflow over four consecutive days was $332 million, which has already given back 38% of the previous rebound. The feeling of positive news being exhausted is growing stronger.
From a technical perspective, the 63,000 level is very critical. Whether the August monthly closing can hold above 63,000 may determine whether it marks the bottom of the bear market. Below, 62,000-62,600 is the near-term core support zone; if broken, 60,000 or even 57,500 should be considered. The upper 65,000-66,000 is a strong resistance zone. Currently, the price is fluctuating in the middle, with no clear direction.
Historical data also reminds us to be cautious. August was the worst month in Bitcoin's history, with a median return of -7.87% over the past 15 years and nine negative closes. In both 2022 and August 2024, it fell 14% and 8.73%. It's not that this year will definitely fall, but we do need to be cautious.
To be honest
The data is positive, but the market just isn't buying it. I'm torn between moving around 63,000 and not holding a heavy position. I'll wait until the direction is clear. Acting now is just gambling, no need.
Personal views and do not constitute any investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $OKB Last night, the US stock market basically hit the brakes at a high level.
The S&P fell 0.17%, the Nasdaq dropped about 0.3%, not panic, just everyone hesitating a bit after hitting new highs.
Retail data was weak, oil prices pushed up again, so funds naturally weren't so eager to rush into tech.
Applied Materials had decent earnings but still fell 5%. AI stocks are really hard to please now: it's not enough to have good earnings, they have to beat the market's hype.
$BTC $ETH $OKB Let's talk about tough industry signals: Anthropic's preliminary Q2 revenue surged to $11.5 billion, at least 14 times year-on-year, annualized revenue has reached $47 billion, surpassing OpenAI, and has turned adjusted operating profit positive. So far this year, AI sector IPOs have raised $256.4 billion, the highest since 2021. Those who know—real cash revenue is here, and the AI main line shows no signs of falsification in the short term. The question has never been whether AI is good or not, but how high the secondary market has set expectations and whether there's still room for it. Mapping to crypto: AI concept coins wanting to ride the wave first need to ask themselves if they have real cash flow or just a name to ride the hype.凌晨美股收官，不少人以为存储板块会集体起飞，现实直接上演冰火两重天。先梳理大盘整体格局：三大指数全天震荡拉锯，标普稳稳守住高位区间，纳指承压小幅回落，费城半导体指数冲高之后快速回落，板块内部强弱差距直接拉满。
伴随着CPI数据落地符合市场预期，资金普遍预判美联储维持现有利率水平不变。市场并没有出现全面疯牛行情，增量资金不愿全线铺开，大量筹码抱团涌入AI存储这条细分主线。另一边资金流向值得留意，BTC现货ETF当日录得1.31亿美元净流出，资金持续从加密资产撤离，调转方向涌入美股科技资产。
赛道内部层级差距一目了然，先来关注本轮绝对龙头$SNDK闪迪。个股收盘大涨7.39%，单日成交额高达338亿，全天成交量持续放大，盘中最高冲击1667价位，收盘稳定在1641。短短五个交易日累计涨幅突破35%，当之无愧的存储赛道核心主线标的。连续快速拉升之后，短期已经进入严重超买状态。短期关键支撑看向1565，上方压力位于前期高点1667。提醒各位不要盲目追高，更加适合等待价格回踩支撑位置，再伺机寻找布局机会。
再看$MU美光科技，虽然跟随板块氛围同步上行，但上涨力度远远跟不上闪迪，走势温吞，始终没能放量突破关键压力。该股支撑区间935，压力点位1000。很明显资金主攻方向集中在闪迪，美光仅仅属于跟风补涨标的，想要打开新一轮上行空间，有效突破压力位是必要前提。
最后是$SKHY海力士，成为板块内最弱一环，收盘近乎平盘运行，大幅掉队于同行。利好消息充分消化之后，跟风进场的买盘持续枯竭，它的走势也可以当作整个存储板块情绪风向标。短期支撑161，压力锁定172。
这次行情给所有人上了重要一课：当下存储赛道早已告别普涨时代，资金集中火力只抱团龙头。一旦SNDK上涨趋势拐头向下，美光、海力士这类跟风标的大概率同步承压。结构性行情之下切忌无脑均等配置，仓位管理一定要严格把控。#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 $BTC $ETH $SNDK 👁️Weekly Summary (8/10-14)
US Stocks: Broad rally, second consecutive week of gains. S&P 500 closed at a historic high of 7,758, up 3.6% for the week. Nasdaq +5.2% (led by chips), Dow +3%. Core drivers: July nonfarm payrolls showed unexpected layoffs, CPI/PPI below expectations, boosting rate cut expectations. Fed kept rates unchanged (9:3 vote). 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.244% (highest since 2007). S&P technical breakout above 7,620, next target 7,833, but RSI shows negative divergence, caution for short-term pullback to 7,570.
Asia Session: Significant divergence. Nikkei strongest, approaching 69,000; A-shares and Hong Kong stocks weaker (tariffs + Middle East pressure); Australian ASX fell below 9,150; India fluctuated narrowly.
Outlook for next week:
US Stocks — Inflation data digestion period, soft data could push to 7,833, stubborn core inflation may cause pullback;
Asia Session — Middle East situation (Hormuz blockade) is the biggest variable, improvement benefits importers, deterioration continues pressure;
Tariffs — US crackdown on re-export trade continues to disrupt China/Southeast Asia. Key trends for next week's US US storage + SanDisk:
This week, it rebounded violently by 35%+, relying on AI long-term contract lock-in + institutional rating upgrades, fully solidifying the long-term cyclical logic.
However, short-term sentiment is overdrawn and profit-taking is overflowing, so there will be no consecutive rallies or short-selling next week!
Overall trend: Trend is strong, oscillation at high levels, intense shakeout, structural divergence
Trading principle: Don't chase after highs; buy on pullbacks on dips. Strong leaders, weak followers.
The storage supercycle isn't over yet; it's just shifting from a mindless rally to a swing-level market.Anthropic's Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, at least 14 times year-on-year, with an annualized return of $47 billion, leaving OpenAI far behind—this shows AI is truly making money, and this industry is real. But I want to pour cold water: AI fundamentals making money are two different things from whether AI concept stocks or AI coins are worth their price. If you see explosive earnings reports and rush in to chase stocks and coins that have already multiplied, you're betting not on whether they make money, but on whether someone more impulsive than you will take over. Don't treat narrative as valuation; this is the kind of IQ tax retail investors love to pay.$TMX TGE scheduled for August 25, the core issue is whether the new liquidity lending demand brought by the integration of tokenized US stock collateral pools can absorb the selling pressure expected from a total supply of 1 billion tokens.
Currently, the TVL of the EVM ecosystem has surpassed $90 million, indicating that capital accumulation in the fixed-rate market has reached a basic scale. Robinhood Chain has integrated NVDA, SPY, and QQQ tokenized US collateral, expanding the lending asset pool from native tokens to traditional equity assets, directly changing the market's assessment of the turnover efficiency of fixed-term lending funds.
The liquidity drivers are ranked by priority as follows: the liquidation efficiency of US-listed tokenized asset collateralization, the ability to absorb spot selling pressure after TGE unlocking, and the net inflow of multi-chain capital pools.
The trigger for the upward scenario is that the daily average trading volume of the Robinhood Chain US collateral lending pool continues to grow, and spot buying continues to digest circulating tokens after TGE. If staking and governance incentives lock in a large proportion of the total supply of 1 billion tokens, the rising capital accumulation rate will push up the token's liquidity premium; If the cross-chain oracle price feed delay causes liquidation delays, this upward logic immediately fails.
The downside scenario triggers the concentrated realization of historical incentives after August 25, triggering a one-sided sell-off of derivatives positions and the spot market. If collateral retreats from tokenized stocks to stablecoins, TVL will fall more than 20% from the $90 million high, and liquidity withdrawal will suppress the lending market's fund-matching efficiency; If the official launch of a high-yield lock-in pool is quickly launched, this downward trend will be interrupted.
The core variables to watch over the next 7 days are the frequency of US collateral liquidations on Robinhood Chain, the utilization rate of the USDG lending pool, and the matching depth of buy-sell trading in the $TMX spot pool.
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure financial reports debut in succession; #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term goals await verification #Tether首次完整审计: Transparency becomes the focusNote the strength of the cross-legged stock: among today's three main legs, $ETH was the relatively firmest, basically flat intraday and able to close with a small red; $BTC was grinding close to the flat line inside the box range; $SOL was actually the weakest, dropping just over 1% in 24 hours. A few days ago, SOL was the most resilient to declines, but today the order has changed—this is a typical characteristic of a market without a main theme: no one has an independent narrative, funds move back and forth between several legs, and none can break the trend. At times like this, the comparison isn't about which leg to choose, but whether you can resist getting slashed in every turnover.$SNDK 现价约1650美元 华尔街12个月机构目标价均值1999美元 最低322美元 最高3050美元
近期压力区间：1750‑1850美元，这里有大量套牢与获利抛压，一次性突破难度较大 有较强回调意愿 多头可以考虑部分止盈
#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 Looking beneath the surface of the $BTC: the funding rate has remained mildly positive over the past 24 hours, and the bulls are still paying small amounts to the bears, indicating that leverage sentiment hasn't reached the point where it should reverse; And the liquidation bill still mainly involves the bulls, and OI hasn't shown obvious deleveraging. To put it plainly—this is a structure where the bulls account for a slight portion of the numbers, but are immediately named and liquidated at the slightest dip. The worst part of this structure isn't direction, but grinding: the back-and-forth shake scrapes away leverage layer by layer, and when the real market reversal comes, there aren't many bullets left in the market. Don't rush to bet on direction; first see if the structure gives you an opportunity.Here's a market structural signal: According to the Financial Times, quantitative giant Jane Street lost about $15 billion in July alone—its first monthly loss since 2016, revenue down about 25% from its June peak, and it has closed most risk positions in problematic areas. Note the last half: the first reaction of real top players after losing money is to "cut exposure and reduce risk," rather than doubling down to break even. When even Jane Street is actively contracting, it means the volatility and crowding of this market are far more difficult to manage than the candlestick appears. Look at the position.