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SanDisk has risen again, but I'm even more curious: Can an 80% gross margin really last until 2030? #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term goals remain to be verified SanDisk's investor day was truly a win over by the market. But I won't chase just because the stock price surges. The management set bold goals: From 2028 to 2030, revenue is expected to grow at mid-to-high double digits annually; Adjusted gross margin remained at around 80%; The free cash flow ratio target is around 50%. More importantly, it has signed long-term agreements with eight customers, expected to cover about half of FY2027 and two-thirds of FY2028's capacity. This shows that SanDisk is proactively addressing the biggest long-standing problem in the storage industry: Whenever prices rise, production expands, and eventually the cycle of oversupply returns. Therefore, in the medium term, AI storage remains a major focus. But maintaining an 80% gross margin until 2030 is already a very high expectation. Next, I will focus on three things: Can long-term agreements lock in prices? Whether HBF can truly deliver samples and implement them next year; Can AI demand outpace new capacity? In short: The AI storage bull market isn't bad, but buying SanDisk now is no longer about this year's performance—it's about the promise for 2030. $SNDK $XSNDK #AMDLargestBondDeal AMD is conducting one of the largest bond financings in its history. The company has launched four tranches of senior unsecured bond offerings with maturities of 2029, 2031, 2033, and 2036, aiming to raise $4 billion to $5 billion. The preliminary pricing is approximately 70, 90, 100, and 115 basis points higher than U.S. Treasuries over the same period. AMD stated that the funds raised will be used for general corporate purposes, possibly including repayment of existing debt. This financing makes more sense in the current AI capital spending cycle, as AMD is expanding investments in the Instinct AI accelerator, data center CPUs, and related hardware and software ecosystems. The company previously expected data center sales to more than double current levels by 2027. Alphabet, Intel, and numerous AI infrastructure companies have also been raising funds this year through bond or equity markets. The AI industry has now begun to heavily call on public capital markets, and it will be important to observe how much revenue and cash flow new capital can ultimately generate in the future. Misallocation of funds. The most dangerous thing is if the bond's maturity exceeds the lifespan of the physical capital gained. But I'm most optimistic about AMD, with the largest holding $XAMD Yes — the historical pattern supports the idea that ETH may be getting closer to a major bottom, but it does not confirm that the bottom is already in. One important correction: ETH’s historical drawdowns were roughly 94% in 2018 and 79% in 2022. Current data shows the 2025–26 drawdown around ~62–68%, depending on the data source and exact peak/trough used. So your core idea is reasonable: 🔻 2018: ~94% 🔻 2022: ~79% 🔻 Current: ~62–68% so far 📉 If the current cycle eventually reaches ~70–75%, that would suggest another ~5–13 percentage points of downside from the current drawdown. But drawdown percentages alone aren't enough to call the bottom. ETH could bottom before 70–75%, or overshoot it. Recent analysis has also pointed to the possibility of further downside before a durable recovery. Bottom line: 🧐 ETH may be entering a late-stage capitulation zone, but confirmation should come from price structure, volume, and a sustained reclaim of important resistance—not simply the historical percentage pattern.A hammer that hasn't been made yet, someone has already started counting nails The term 'quantum computing' has been appearing more and more frequently in the crypto community recently. Some research reports bluntly state: in the next 5 to 7 years, quantum computing may exert real pressure on the cryptographic foundations of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Another article is even more specific—about 6.89 million BTC, due to public key exposure or old address formats, will be especially vulnerable in quantum attack scenarios. 6.89 million BTC, at current prices, is over 400 billion USD—a scale no one dares to treat as science fiction. Let me be clear: this isn't the negative news of tomorrow's sell-off. Quantum computers still can't crack secp256k1 today, so in the short term, they can't produce a single cent of volatility. But it's an unavoidable long-term issue, because cryptography is the foundation of these two chains—the foundational issue, you can drag it out, not pretend not to see it. Interestingly, BTC and $ETH face the same challenge, but their approaches are completely different. BTC's problem lies in its "oldness": early address public keys are exposed, and a large number of dormant coins—including Satoshi's group—are theoretically soft targets. What's even more troublesome is migration. Bitcoin's governance style is famously conservative; changing the signature algorithm requires consensus across the entire internet. Who votes? Who moves first? Does changing it count as an indirect admission that old coins are unsafe? Every step is a political question. ETH's problem lies in "miscellaneous": account system, smart contract permissions, validator signatures—every step requires switching locks, but the advantage is Ethereum's tradition of upgrades and strong engineering iteration. The path of account abstraction itself leaves a door for future signature swapping schemes. Just look at the market and you'll see the market's attention isn't on this at all. As of 10 p.m. on August 14, BTC's current price was around $63,500, nearly flat in 24 hours, down 1.16% over the week, and after five weeks of grinding in a range between 62,000 and 66,000, 62,000 to 62,800 is support, and 64,000 to 65,500 is resistance. ETH's current price is around $1,885, with little 24-hour fluctuation. SOL is currently at $76.08, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 4.6% in the week, making it the strongest among mainstream players. DOGE is currently priced at $0.0694, down about 1%. The Fear and Greed Index is 30, and the market is focused on next periodic options delivery and the Fed's tone, not quantum computers seven years from now. But this is precisely why this topic is worth discussing now: pricing security premiums has always been lagging. The previous round of crypto competition was about market cap and ecosystem; the next round might be "who can deliver a credible post-quantum migration roadmap first." If a quantum computer really runs a milestone experiment and the market reacts, then it's no longer a matter of slow discussion—panic pricing will be completed within days, and chains that migrate early will suffer a real hedging premium. Simply put, $BTC bets on consensus to move on in the face of major events, while ETH is betting on engineering teams submitting papers before the deadline. There are no proctors for this exam, but all coin holders are graded.Guys, $SNDK today's big bullish candlestick has silenced both bulls and bears. Let me start with my own feelings: I want to curse. I really want to scold people. It's not that I'm angry at the $SNDK rising, but at not holding onto my financial report a few days ago. The financial report was so good, revenue rose 51% quarter-on-quarter, gross margin 84.6%, and the data center business doubled, yet the stock price still dropped that day. I thought, is this market blind? I gritted my teeth, cleared my last bit of position, and even bought some short positions. And what happened? As soon as Investor Day opened, a big bullish candlestick jumped up, and my short positions didn't even struggle—I watched the losses jump straight up. At that moment, I really wanted to smash my keyboard. It wasn't the market playing against me, but my own reckless hands—I moved recklessly without even waiting for confirmation signals. Long-term agreements, 80% gross margin—now, hearing them sounds like they're laughing at me. The market differentiation is obvious. $SNDK is far ahead of others, but $MU Micron in the same sector only caught up halfway, and $WDC Western Digital is even weaker. This shows that today's capital was driven by SanDisk's long-term story, not the overall rally in the storage sector. Those chasing the highs should be careful: once sentiment fades, the price drops are unforgivable. Don't be fooled by its fierce rise today; I've been watching how it has been tough over the past month. The lesson from the past is $SNDK yourself. On the day of the earnings report, the stock exceeded expectations, the stock opened high but fell low, burying many who thought "all the good news had been gone." I was laughing at others for being buried, but then I turned around and stumbled on short positions. The market specializes in all kinds of stubbornness. The storage industry is too dependent on cycles; when prices rise, everyone is a stock god; once capacity expands, profits evaporate instantly. So what truly made the market buy on today's investor day wasn't how loudly the word "AI" was shouted, but that management began answering a more practical question: How can SanDisk stop being just a cyclical stock? The figures given so far are indeed sincere. New long-term agreements have already been signed with eight customers, covering about 50% of shipments in fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal year 2028. The targets for fiscal years 2028 to 2030 include 80% non-GAAP gross margin, about 50% adjusted free cash flow margin, and all remaining cash after necessary investments are returned to shareholders. Sounds beautiful, but brothers, goals are still goals. Whether HBF can truly be implemented, whether long-term contracts can lock in profits, and how much gross margin remains after NAND prices fall—all of these will be tested quarter by quarter. What's even more unsettling is that the storage industry has never truly escaped cycles in its history. No one dares to guarantee whether AI can rewrite the script this time. The macro side is also conflicted right now. Although CPI and PPI data have cooled, internal divisions within the Fed are huge, with some officials still calling for "rate hikes." In this environment, capital risk appetite shifts instantly; money chasing $SNDK today's high might turn tomorrow to buy government bonds. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure earnings reports have come in succession, with CoreWeave and Nebius posting explosive earnings, with all funds being drawn there. $SNDK Although prices rose fiercely today, whether they can continue attracting funds depends on whether subsequent trading volumes can keep up. A rally without volume can easily turn into a one-day trip. I don't have any $SNDK long positions or short positions in my hands now. After that rally this morning, I hesitated about chasing, but in the end, I held back. It's not that I'm not optimistic, it's that this kind of news stimulated a rally, and the next day, a lower opening makes me very passive. The observation I set for myself is: if the pullback doesn't break below today's midpoint of the big bullish candlestick and volume hasn't clearly shrunk, I'll consider following a bit more; If I rely purely on sentiment to push it up, then if it surges and then pulls back, then today's big rally is just carrying someone else's sedan chair. The most expensive thing in the stock market is telling yourself "this time is different." $SNDK I'm just watching the show this time, waiting for it to prove with real money that it's not just talking. After all, I just lost a lot because of a cheap move, so I can't risk losing another money just because I'm afraid of missing out. Finally, I want to ask everyone: For those still holding $SNDK, are you planning to continue playing the long-term logic, or have you already taken advantage of today's big rally to cut your positions? Is there anyone like me who got sold off a car a few days ago and slapped their thigh today? #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term goals to be verified #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Gold Rally Faces a Key Test as Yields and Oil Decline Gold’s recent rally may be showing signs of short-term exhaustion after the metal failed to rise meaningfully despite weaker oil prices and falling Treasury yields. Gold is testing its 100-day moving average following weaker-than-expected US retail sales, but its price performance has been less convincing than the broader macro environment would suggest. Earlier in August, gold had largely moved in tandem with lower yields and softer oil as markets priced a more dovish Federal Reserve outlook. Thursday marked a notable change in that relationship, with gold falling 1.3%, Treasury yields dropping 5 basis points and oil declining about $2 at the same time. This divergence may simply reflect profit-taking after gold’s strong recent gains, but it could become a more important warning signal if gold continues to struggle while yields and oil remain lower. A sustained break and weekly close above the 100-day moving average would help restore the bullish outlook. #DailyOrbit BTC has fallen for six consecutive days, now at 63,000, down 41% from its peak. Some analysts jumped in saying that to truly see the bear bottom, it would have to fall another 50%-60%. This kind of "drawing an even scarier bottom for you" rhetoric is familiar to crypto veterans—whenever it drops to the point where no one can hold onto their chips, someone always stabs them to sell at the cheapest price. Looking at the data: in the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network amounted to 238 million dollars, 41.75 million BTC long positions were eliminated, and short positions were almost negligible. This one-sided bullish blowout method is often not the start of a major trend but a signal that short-term sell-offs are nearing their end. ETH held up and climbed back above 1885, but unfortunately, ETH/BTC still couldn't break through the 0.0300 barrier, indicating this wave is just following the trend, not your own funds entering the market. Don't rush to call for a reversal. SOL is fluctuating at 75.6, the lower boundary of the 72-77 range is near, exchange net inflow is positive for two consecutive days, selling pressure is still accumulating, those looking to buy the bottom should wait a bit longer. My conclusion: panic is when others offer chips, but the premise is that you can withstand volatility. At this level, it's better to earn less than to gamble on the bottom. $BTC $ETH $SOL [Pharaoh Market Watch] Pharaoh bluntly said that previously, Bitcoin was priced by "halving scarcity," but now Wall Street is asking, "What can this asset bring me?" Essentially, this is a paradigm shift in asset pricing logic—from "faith premium" to "income pricing." Let's first look at why traditional frameworks fail. In recent years, PlanB's inventory flow (S2F) model has been the strongest support for Bitcoin's narrative. Its logic is simple: Bitcoin halves every four years, supply decreases, scarcity increases, and prices should rise. Gold S2F is about 60, while Bitcoin currently has S2F about 120. Following this model, prices are expected to rise in the long term. But the fatal flaw of the S2F model is that it only looks at supply and ignores demand, and even less about revenue. Take gold, but gold has nearly half of the physical consumption demand, with almost zero maintenance cost, while Bitcoin depends on the power grid, internet, miners, and exchanges—any link is cut off and it collapses. After the halving, miners' block rewards decrease, and the security model ultimately relies on transaction fees. However, the narrative of "holding without moving" and the security model of "requiring transaction fees to be introduced" are inherently contradictory. Moreover, Bitcoin generates no cash flow, just like zero-coupon bonds, its value entirely depends on how much others are willing to pay to buy it. Why has "revenue pricing" become the new direction? Goldman Sachs spent $2.25 billion to acquire NEOS, BlackRock launched yield-generating ETFs, and Wall Street's core goal is one thing—to package Bitcoin's volatility into a wealth management product that can receive cash every month. This isn't trading Bitcoin itself, but trading its "yield-bearing ability." The higher the protocol revenue and the higher the proportion allocated to holders, the lower the valuation multiple. This logic directly distinguishes Bitcoin from traditional "non-yielding assets." So how is the big cake priced? In the short term, around 65,000 is the market tug-of-war between the "income narrative" and the "traditional narrative." In the long run, as long as Wall Street's path of "profitability" is successful, the participant structure and volatility characteristics of the crypto market will be rewritten. Bitcoin's pricing logic may shift from a "halving story" to "how much cash flow can I help you generate?" Remember, good deals are waited for, but this direction is worth a closer look. Follow Pharaoh and never lose your way to wealth! $BTC $ETH $SNDK #加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced? US stocks are benefiting from good news, but the crypto world is mistaking good news for negative news: What exactly is BTC waiting for? The most awkward thing about crypto right now isn't the major negative news, but the continuous improvement in the macro environment, and prices remain insensitive. In July, CPI fell to 3.4% year-on-year, and PPI month-on-month was even 0.0%; Subsequently, retail sales unexpectedly declined, and the probability of a rate hike in September has been pushed down to about 30%. As a result, the S&P 500 just hit a record high, while BTC is still around $63,000, and ETH is about $1,875. The reason is actually quite simple: Pausing rate hikes is simply stopping further funding; It's not a rate cut, nor is it directly injecting funds into crypto. U.S. stocks now trade AI profit-taking, while BTC has no income statement; it truly relies on ETFs, spot buying, and liquidity. So from now on, don't just focus on CPI. The real reversal signal is: ETF inflows continue to return→ BTC regains sensitivity to positive news→ ETH/BTC strengthens. Otherwise, the better the macro and the less crypto prices rise, the more it shows that crypto's problems have shifted from "Fed suppression" to— No one wants to buy at a higher price. $BTC #CPI与PPI同步降温, the divide over rate hikes has widened For late-night market watchers, what they fear most isn't a crash, but a clear drop but not knowing who's dumping it. As soon as the US military announced the formation of its drone unit, BTC was poked and slid straight from 63,600 to 62,800, while ETH also softened to around 1,862. On the surface, it looks like geopolitical panic, but what the market is really trading is the expectation that "both sides are preparing for the next step"—Iran had just made bold statements, and the US military unveiled new equipment. This is no coincidence; it is a footnote to the escalation of the game. Let's start with the lens of sector strength. - Bitcoin is near 63,300, already close to the previously repeatedly emphasized core support zone of 63,300-63,000. If 63,000 cannot be held tonight, stop-loss orders will fall like dominoes, with the 62,000-62,500 below a possible rapid drop range. - Ethereum is more vulnerable; 1850-1870 is its current lifeline. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has been unable to rise. Once BTC breaks through, ETH will likely fall below 1850 first, seeking support between 1800-1820. 1900 has shifted from support to resistance. Here's a detail that's easy to overlook: the U.S. drone force is a long-term plan, but the market sees it as a signal of short-term escalation of conflict. In other words, what is priced now is not "the US will have a long-term deployment," but rather "a real conflict may break out in the short term." Once this expectation forms, risk appetite contracts rapidly, and funds withdraw from risk assets first #标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up The 8000-point mark is not baseless; momentum remains, but wallets need to be tightened — high valuations + AI fault tolerance narrowing have made this train "less responsive." Guys, the S&P has hit a new high again, with calls for 8000 points getting louder and louder. Personally, I think the momentum is still there, but don't be stuck at the peak. Let's start with the toughest facts. Data shows the S&P real-time level: on August 14, the intraday high reached 7810, and on August 12, closing at 7748, a historical closing high. The 7800 threshold has been firmly crossed. Looking at the index now, it's about 7789, just about 200 points short of 8000, roughly 2.7% of the gap. Citi's year-end target is 8100, which is just over 4% from now. So who's pushing this new high? Honestly, it's not Reddit's stuff. Reddit only officially added the S&P 500 before the market opened on August 18, and the stock price jumped 11.87% in a single day that day. JPMorgan estimates that index tracking funds would have to buy 16.7 million shares. But listen carefully, passive funds are the money index funds have to buy due to component adjustments. It's mechanical, one-off, not Reddit's business suddenly getting better. This rally was purely event-driven; once August 18 passed, the momentum faded, and whether the index could reach 8,000 was a different matter. There are two main points being pushed. One is the interest rate spread. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell from 4.75% at the end of July to 4.68%, the two-year yield at 4.20%, and the dollar weakened at 99.58. With easing rate hike pressure and the Fed's steady pricing becoming more stable, money dares to burrow into risk assets—this is the underlying sign of risk appetite recovery and index highs. The other is that earnings are truly being revised upward. Citi just raised the S&P 500 constituents' earnings per share for next year—how much the company earns per share in a year—from $350 to $365, maintaining the year-end target of 8,100. They themselves said Q1 actual earnings exceeded market expectations by more than 13%. Is that 8,000 points real? Now the index is at 7,789 points. Based on the P/E ratio—how many times the stock price is the company's annual earnings, the higher the multiple, the higher the market's expectations—about 24 times, which is clearly higher than the average of sixteen or seventeen times over the past decade. Citi's 8,100 target means earnings per share should rise from about 324 to 365, about 13%, and the multiple should be slightly reduced from 24 to around 22. Simply put, this 4% margin mainly depends on the company's profitability pushing upward, not on people daring to offer high prices. This actually shows the target isn't outrageous, but the cost is that it almost entirely bets on continued earnings. Citi's original statement is that the market's margin for error is extremely low, and that's what it means. This brings me to the one thing I most want to remind you: can AI revenue be delivered? Previously, we talked about AI infrastructure earnings reports saying growth was booming but tolerance for error narrowed, and good data still dropped. Now, it's not a prediction—it's happening. On the evening of August 14, Applied Materials released solid earnings guidance, but the stock price dropped 5%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 1% that day. Why? Because the AI boom has pushed market expectations to the ceiling—if it's not impressive enough, it's criticized. Citibank has also pointed it out: the market has priced the AI logic of selling shovels to 2027, and how the index moves from here depends heavily on whether companies can truly deliver on their AI profit promises. What's even more critical is concentration. Citigroup said just 20 stocks contributed most of the annual profit upward revision. In other words, the index is currently carried by a small group of AI heavyweight stocks. If one day these computing power chain and semiconductor leaders' AI revenues prove false, once they fall, the index will be dragged down. On the other hand, AI is a double-edged sword. Even Reddit's owner warned that Google's AI Overview has snatched search traffic, and fewer people are accessing it directly. So AI is both the contributor to the index and the ticking time bomb lying on it. Here's a word for fans. If you chase indices or buy assets like SPY now, you need to pay attention to a few pitfalls. First, the valuation is high—24 times is there, and historically, prices at this level have seen significant volatility. The SPY I got was $776.72, down 0.15% that day. Basically, the index is moving by ten. The on-chain token version of XSPY you mentioned doesn't cover the data source, but the 'basically flat' price matches the index's high-level fluctuations that day. Second, interest rates fluctuate. Even the Fed's own people are biased—some want to increase, some say they've had enough. There's no way pricing will be straight. Third, there's AI falsification risk. Applied Materials has already demonstrated good data and prices are still falling. Fourth, you're at a new high, technically overbought position. Some institutions have measured RSI to 75, above the 70 overbought line. Additionally, on the night of August 14, U.S. July retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month, marking the largest drop in over a year. Consumer confidence also fell short of expectations. This situation was caught between two fronts: it eased concerns about interest rate hikes and indicated weakening corporate income. How should we view it before 8000? Personally, I think the momentum hasn't finished yet. Citibank 8100 and several other investment banks have also crossed 8000, which shows this expectation is not baseless. But don't rush ahead when 7800 or 8000 is the hottest call. When it reaches 8000 to 8100, don't take it as a blindly bullish signal. Whether it can rise after that depends on whether profits and AI income can be sold out. If you really want to get in, pullbacks are much more comfortable than chasing highs. Don't fully fill your position at once.Why did the earnings report exceed expectations and cause the market to crash, while Investor Day caused SNDK to skyrocket? Understanding this is the key to understanding SanDisk Many people study SNDK only because of "how good its performance is," which easily leads to misjudgment. After the August earnings report, the stock price plunged sharply. The problem was not poor earnings, but that the guidance for the next quarter did not meet extremely high expectations, coupled with concerns about slowing NAND price growth. The market trades the future, not the profits already disclosed. What has Investor Day truly changed? Sandisk delivers the most lacking aspect of the market—long-term visibility—all at once: FY2028–2030 revenue targets mid-to-high double-digit growth, non-GAAP gross margin of about 80%, operating margin of about 75%, and free cash flow of about 50%; Eight customer NBM protocols cover about 50% of FY2027 and about two-thirds of FY2028's bit shipments. On the technical side, BiCS10 QLC bit density is 60% higher than BiCS8, with HBF directly targeting the storage bottleneck of the AI inference era. As a result, the market repriced the price, with SNDK rising 13.7% on Investor Day. Financial reports prove "how much money is made now," and Investor Day answers, "How much longer can we earn in the next few years?" This is the real reason SNDK took off. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened What is $APR's recent trend somewhat like? I say it's similar to $LAB, which dropped directly from 16 to around 0.0. It's the same trend, oscillating back and forth. As soon as it rises to around 16 yuan, it drops down, and finally hits all the bottom. As for $APR, as soon as it rises to around 0.56, it will drop down. I believe it will fall because it's an air coin and its trend matches Lab's rules. If the shipment has a fixed trend, then this trend is one of them. For the reasons above, the highest position was raised to 10%, now it's 20%. If APR rally to 20% of my position, I should consider cutting losses, because judgments are always rough. I trust my own judgment, but I can't be superstitious. If you believe in it, one mistake will reset to zero. Once it's zero, you'll lose everything. So now, the more the price rises, the more I want to increase my position; if it suddenly drops, consider selling the added positions and keeping enough to wait for a sell-off.Miners are ramping up, stakers are hesitating—the faith of the two chains is diverging On August 15, BTC was quoted at $63,100, ETH at $1,884, with a panic and greed index of 29, and the market was still in a state of "fear." But two groups on the chain are telling two completely different stories through their actions. Let's start with Bitcoin. On August 14, the total hash rate surged to 957 EH/s; a week earlier, it had reached 1.07 ZH/s. Since the beginning of the year, the hash rate has been steadily rising, and mining difficulty has already surpassed 126T. Keep in mind, the current hash price is only around $32/PH/s. Many old machines are already struggling at break-even lines. In this environment, production expansion is only explained: miners are betting not on next month, but on the next cycle. The money from mining machines is real cash, and power contracts are signed for several years. This is the least liquid and most honest long position in the market. New hash rate highs mean Bitcoin's security budget and the "digital gold" narrative continue to reinforce. Even though the price has been halved from last October's peak of $126,210, miners have no intention of exiting. Looking at Ethereum, the situation is much more subtle. The staking rate is indeed rising, with over 30% of circulating ETH locked in staking, entry queues once piling above 2.5 million ETH, but the repeated tug-of-war in exit queues is the real cash sentiment — the withdrawal wave that had previously backlogged 2.6 million $ETH only cleared at the end of July. The tug-of-war between entering and exiting shows one thing: ETH holders are torn between "earning interest" and "seeking liquidity." Unlike miners, who are locked in heavy assets and can leave at any time, this "exitable belief" is naturally more fragile and sensitive. On the price side, this divergence explains the market well. $BTC Bottoming around $63,000, miners don't sell, hashrate keeps rising, and supply is holding back; ETH slipped from above $2,400 to $1,884 this year, with staking unlocking as the underlying selling pressure. Even though ETFs absorbed over $14 billion this year, it hasn't fully absorbed it. SOL, on the other hand, rose 4.7% in a week thanks to Bitwise tokenization cooperation and ETF fund recovery, with funds being picked and picking within the PoS camp. The core contradiction boils down to one sentence: PoW confidence is built on capital expenditure and cannot be withdrawn; PoS confidence is calculated by yield and can be withdrawn at any time. When the market is bad, the former's "faith" settles into bottom support, while the latter's "faith" cashes out as selling pressure tests. Next, focus on two numbers: if BTC mining difficulty adjustments continue to rise, it means miners are still increasing their bets; if ETH exits the queue re-accumulate, stakers' hesitation turns into real selling pressure. In a market with a fear index of 29, whose faith is stronger depends on on-chain data speaking before candlesticks.#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term goals remain to be verified This round of rally is more like a current story of "current AI storage + 100% cashback," rather than the market already discounting its long-term targets for three years. Guys, SanDisk Investor Day is quite typical. I looked up the real data and got straight to the point. Let's start with the stock price—it's really impressive. Neodata's market data shows that on August 13, the investor day alone saw a 13.67% increase, then another 6.09% the next day, closing at 1621, firmly above 1600—your pricing is accurate. Over four days, it rose from 1240 to 1621, up nearly 31 points. This trend is a typical event-driven pulse, not a slow revaluation of valuation. The most critical turning point is here. The company's latest quarterly financial report shows gross margin reaching 84% and an operating profit margin of 78%. Its long-term targets are 80% gross margin and 75% operating profit margin. In other words, this quarter's profitability is already higher than the target it aims to achieve three years from now. This flips the problem—the market isn't pricing something that hasn't been achieved yet, but betting on whether the current high-profit situation can hold up. Why hold on? There is real progress in AI storage this wave. Industry data shows that data center storage demand is expected to soar from 600 EB in 2020 to 2.4 ZB by 2028, and NAND bit demand will add over 200 EB by 2026. Moreover, OEMs are controlling production capacity without expanding much, causing prices to rise 40% to 100% quarter-on-quarter. This is completely different from previous years when prices were forcibly raised through production cuts; demand and supply sides are coordinating, not just telling stories. But I have to pour cold water on it. Storage is the most cyclical industry on Earth, bar none. The current 84% gross margin is only possible after this AI boom has hit its ceiling. Historically, in good years for NAND, gross margins have only been around fifty or sixty; at bad times, they can reach the teens. If a company dares to set 80% as a three-year normal target, it means betting on the AI supercycle and the original manufacturer controlling production capacity—personally, I am optimistic, somewhat empty-handed, but not entirely uncertain. Now, 100% excess cash rebate. SanDisk takes an asset-light route, with a joint wafer fab with Kioxia holding only 49.9% of shares. Without bearing the costs of building the fab or depreciating itself, capital expenditures are kept very low, and free cash flow is still available. This is fine during economic booms. But note that it refers to excess cash, meaning cashback only returns after the business maintenance phase passes; cashback stops during downturns. So this is a good promise in peaceful times, not a guarantee to weather bull or bear markets. Let me give you a bottom line about valuation. According to Neodata data, during the reporting period, the stock price at 1745 was about $255 billion, with a price-to-sales ratio of about 13 times. Now, at 1621, the market value is about 237 billion, roughly twelve times price-to-sales value. Buying a cyclical stock at 12 or 3 times price-to-sales is not cheap. What's even more confusing is the price-to-earnings ratio—at peak earnings, the PE looks just over 20 times, which seems very cheap, but this is exactly the classic trap of cyclical stocks. When earnings reach the peak, the PE is lowest. Looks cheap but is actually the most dangerous, because the next cycle of earnings will be a complete mess, and the numbers will be completely reversed. Here's an honest word for fans. Whether to chase this stock now depends on the person. If you believe the AI storage supercycle can last more than three years, and the original manufacturer can keep controlling production capacity, then the logic makes sense—100% cashback is also attractive. But I point out four risk points: first, long-term goals are being disproven—80% gross profit is the norm to bet on the economy to avoid a downturn; Second, the storage cycle will eventually decline, and now 84% is the peak; Third, AI demand falls short of expectations, and once large model capital spending drops, NAND prices can crash instantly; Fourth, valuations have already exhausted a lot of positive factors—market sales have increased twelve to thirteen times, and a 30% increase in four days. Once the positive news appears, it's easy for it to be exhausted. Personally, I think this round feels more like a current narrative pulse than a long-term target revaluation. If you haven't gotten in yet, chasing cost-effectiveness at this level is average. It's better to wait for a cycle of drawdowns or to prove the 80/75 target with real cash in one quarter before acting. If you're already in the board, hold onto it but don't use leverage. Keep a close eye on whether your gross margin stays around 80 each quarter. If it drops below 70 one day, the story will fall apart.BICO's rebound is likely not a structural change in supply and demand but the final consolidation of remaining speculative demand. If funds circulate only for short-term speculation, under what conditions would BICO's current price structure be valid? BICO currently relies more on the turnover of some short-term funds than on spot buying. Actual trading volume and execution strength do not confirm an upward trend, and prices fluctuate at the lower end of the range. This is more about efforts to lower the average unit price of existing positions rather than new real demand flowing in. Looking at the market structure, funds are moving toward other stocks like EDEN in pursuit of higher APRs. This means that funds trapped in BICO can quickly exit, and if liquidity dispersion continues, BICO's recovery will inevitably be slow. - Upward scenario: If spot trading volume increases in BICO, daily average execution strength turns upward, and a pattern of capital inflows is confirmed, a breakout above the upper end of the range is expected.🔥🔥🔥 US stocks hit new highs, the market is cut in half—are you panicking? 🔥🔥🔥 Last night, the S&P 500 hit a record high of 7,736 points. The Dow rose, the Nasdaq rose, and gold was also rising. Is a rebound just a way to escape? Only your big cake hasn't gone up. 62,990, just half below the peak of 126,000. I kept switching between these two scenes—on the left, US stocks beating drums and drums; on the right, my BTC account was glowing green. That feeling was worse than losing money. It used to be said, "When US stocks rise, Bitcoin rises even harder." This year, it's the opposite: US stocks rise, but Bitcoin stays unmoved. US stocks rise again, and Bitcoin falls. What is this called? Following the decline but not the rise. The data is even more heartbreaking. Daily spot trading volume for Bitcoin dropped to $1.19 billion, the lowest since 2019. In February, there was still $14.7 billion. In other words: the market is still the same, and people are almost gone. ETFs are also running. On Wednesday, 130 million yuan flowed out in one day, with Ark leading with 58.8 million in redemptions. But one piece of good news was buried—Tether just passed four major audits, with $18 billion in reserves left very clean. But the market isn't even bothered to raise that. I've been pondering a question lately: money hasn't left the market, it's just left the big pie. The S&P new high shows that risk appetite remains, so when will the big Bitcoin come around? No one knows. Maybe next month, maybe next year. Or maybe never again—I dare not think deeply about this sentence. My position hasn't changed. It's not about faith, but after being stuck at 50%, the difference between selling and holding is hardly anymore. If I really want to cut off now to chase the S&P at new highs in US stocks? Chasing 7736 is no different from someone chasing SPCX at 146. "The best time to switch tracks is when it is falling; the worst is when others are making money, and they're jealous." Panicking is real, but being jealous and switching positions never ends well. Hold on. Will you switch to US stocks, or continue to wear out Bitcoin? $BTC $ETH #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term goals remain to be verified Without trading volume and liquidity, a bull market cannot come Recently, I heard someone say this conclusion, and in fact, it's a typical misconception As shown in the chart, at the end of December 2022, before the bull market started, trading volume showed no increase; in fact, it gradually declined, nearly stagnant, but the bull market would still start suddenly, followed by volume expansion Trading volume is the result of price increases, not the cause The real bottom is no volume, stagnant water, and selling pressure drying up—that's the root of the bottom There's another common misconception: when trading volume is low, even a little selling pressure can break through, meaning a sharp drop is coming Why can't a small amount of buying quickly push the price up? So in a bear market, many people only think about the price drop, and whenever they see a signal, they force it to fall In an extremely dull market, exhausted selling pressure means all is sold and leverage is cleared; a small drop won't trigger a chain of liquidations So, don't assume the market won't rise just because there's no trading volume in a sluggish state, nor interrupt your dollar-cost averaging plan. Buy when it's time to buy As always, every bull market starts suddenly from despair, giving you no chance to react To be honest, the current market situation is making people sleepy. On the US side, the S&P keeps hitting new highs, while here in the crypto world, it feels like BTC and ETH are lying in straight lines. All the money is being siphoned off by US stocks, creating a liquidity vacuum. If the crypto world doesn't fall, it's still a favor. Want to get started? It's tough. It's unclear how much longer these days of "US stocks eat meat, crypto rides the wind" will last. But one detail worth noting—ETH was clearly more resilient than BTC this time. BTC shivered slightly, ETH followed suit, but the decline narrowed significantly, and buying pressure below was thicker than expected. Logically, Ethereum should have strengthened long ago. With Pectra's upgrade expectations + AI narrative all present, it's highly likely that Bitcoin has firmly suppressed it. It's still far from taking profit, and whether it will rebound early is uncertain; hopefully, it's just self-scarcity. Looking at the neighboring US stock market, SanDisk's strong 13% rise yesterday stunned everyone, causing the storage sector to take off as well. The S&P 500 has already climbed above 7800, and the market is already discussing when 8000 will be reached. The money in crypto isn't gone; it's a battlefield switch. Given the current situation, rushing is useless. BTC needs to wait for continuous ETF inflows + macro interest rate inflection resonance to break through, while ETH needs to stabilize before funds move in to catch up. Until then, it's highly likely they'll keep grinding. The only consolation is that ETH's bottom structure is more solid than BTC's, so if it really starts, its resilience won't be bad. Just hang in there, wait for the wind. #币圈横盘美股新高, when will the capital migration take a break for $BTC $ETH $SNDK? XRP and SOL are competing for cross-border payments, while bridge assets are competing against on-chain dollars Cross-border payments The most classic crypto narrative in the past was using $XRP as a bridge between different fiat currencies: payers don't need to pre-deposit large amounts of money in every country, and value can be quickly transferred through highly liquid assets. Now that stablecoin infrastructure is mature and Solana continues to advance enterprise payments and global remittances, the focus of competition has become another issue—since dollars can be transferred directly on-chain, why is a bridge with volatile prices needed? The XRP route addresses liquidity fragmentation. When unified assets are lacking among different currencies, banks, and payment providers, intermediary bridges can shorten settlement chains and improve capital turnover efficiency. Its value depends on market depth, regional coverage, and whether institutions are willing to use it in the process. The more people cross the bridge, the smaller the bid-ask spread, and the easier it is for new participants to join. $SOL The stablecoin route carried is more intuitive. The sender holds on-chain dollars, the receiver receives the same on-chain dollar, the network handles fast settlement, and the issuer handles redemption. Large payment institutions like Western Union brought stablecoin infrastructure to Solana, indicating that traditional remittance companies are also testing this architecture. Users see the dollar balance and do not bear the price risk of transiting assets just seconds away. But stablecoins do not eliminate all currency exchange issues. Recipients may eventually need pesos, euros, or other local currencies, while on-chain dollars still need to go through local withdrawals, market making, and compliance channels. If there is a lack of direct liquidity between certain currencies, bridge assets can still improve capital efficiency. The difference lies only in where the bridge appears and who is willing to hold it. XRP's advantage lies in its long-term network and brand built around institutional payments, with product logic aimed at cross-border value transfer from the start. It does not need to win over all consumer applications; as long as it continuously saves pre-financing costs in specific corridors, its functionality can be proven. SOL's advantage is its universal network: payments, transactions, subscriptions, and asset management can all happen in the same environment, and after stablecoins arrive, they can continue to participate in other applications. The two also have different ways of capturing value. XRP needs to prove that payment growth creates sufficient bridge inventory and liquidity demand, rather than buying and selling instantly with almost no open positions. SOL needs to prove that stablecoin activity increases network fees, developer income, and ecosystem stickiness, rather than users treating it as a cheap channel and leaving immediately after it arrives. From a business perspective, the choice is not determined solely by speed. Payment providers must compare regulatory licenses, redemption channels, foreign exchange depth, capital occupation, system stability, and dispute resolution. Blockchain can make settlements faster, but it cannot replace local banking relationships. Whoever connects on-chain technology more fully with the last mile will be eligible for ongoing orders. In terms of risk, XRP faces pressure from stablecoins merging denomination and settlement assets; SOL faces issuer concentration, freezing authority, and off-chain reserve credit. Bridge assets bear market fluctuations, stablecoins bear issuance credit; these two risks have not disappeared, only placed on different balance sheets. Ultimately, companies will choose the one they find easier to manage. This competition will also affect $BTC's payment positioning. BTC's strongest use cases are increasingly focused on reserves and global collateral, rather than being used directly for every retail remittance. Cross-border payments growth can expand the entire crypto entry point without requiring all assets to compete for the same role. The clearer the division of labor, the more the market will demand that each token explain how its own needs are formed. Judging success or failure cannot be judged solely by the number of partnership announcements. I look at whether the real payment corridor is reused, retention after stablecoin arrival, local fiat exchange costs, whether companies reduce pre-financing, and whether network revenue is growing in tandem. These data can distinguish between a pilot and a long-term infrastructure. $XRP sells cross-currency liquidity, $SOL sells on-chain dollars and application environments. There may not be only one winner in the future, but any winner must resolve exchange, redemption, and compliance after "seconds of arrival." The end of payment has never been block confirmation, but the payee actually spending that money.#AIInfraEarningsWatch AI infrastructure companies have entered the earnings verification phase, with CoreWeave's Q2 data being the most representative. The company's Q2 revenue reached $2.58 billion, up 112.5% year-on-year, with revenue backlog of $104 billion, up 246% year-on-year; After entering Q3, about $25 billion in new customer commitments were added. The company also increased online power capacity to about 1.5GW, contracted power to about 3.7GW, and completed the first validation of Nvidia's Vera Rubin NVL72. The price of growth was an adjusted net loss of about $567 million in Q2, with capital expenditures of $9.4 billion for the quarter. On one side is order and revenue growth; on the other, financing, depreciation, electricity, and data center construction costs. The most important thing for AI infrastructure is how much capital is invested for every dollar of revenue increased, and how much free cash flow these assets ultimately generate. Only capital expenditures are made, and different companies' expenditures are different companies' income—this is terrifying. That would truly be a bubble $XCRWV Right now in the crypto world, good news for the US stock market is bad news for it, and bad news for the US stock market is a black swan event for it. The crypto world is terrifying—what kind of news can actually stimulate it? CPI and PPI were released consecutively, signaling a clear cooling of inflation. July CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, core CPI 2.5%, all on target. PPI month-over-month was flat, year-over-year dropped from 5.5% to 4.7%. According to the classic script, the probability of a rate hike should decrease, and risk assets should rise. CME data confirms this—the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 40% to 32%. But the market split. In the crypto world, Bitcoin $BTC is still hovering around 64,000, now almost like a stablecoin. It surged a bit before the data release, but immediately fell after the news. What about Ethereum? $ETH has been fluctuating between 1,870-1,890. It spiked briefly after the data but then faded. Over 60,000 people were liquidated in the past 24 hours, ETF funds did not flow back, and 1,900 has become a short-term ceiling for ETH. On the US stock side, it’s a completely different story. SanDisk $SNDK jumped 10% to 1,550, SK Hynix rose over 7%. Same data, two worlds. This can’t be explained by economics alone. Inside the Federal Reserve, there’s a big argument—Harker calls for a rate hike, Kaplan says wait and see. On the surface, it’s a data disagreement, but behind it are two political forces arm-wrestling. Whether to hike in September depends only half on economic data. Crypto is stuck in an awkward position. Inflation is down, rate hike probability is down, so it should rise, but funds are stagnant. Because the market wants "rate cuts," not just "no rate hikes." No rate hikes just stop the bleeding; rate cuts are the transfusion. ETH has been stuck around 1,900 for almost two weeks; it gets sold off when it goes up—a typical wait for a catalyst. Once the rate cut expectation shifts from "whether to hike" to "when to cut," ETH’s elasticity will be much stronger than BTC’s, and a drop in staking yields will directly boost the ETH/BTC exchange rate. SanDisk $SNDK’s 10% rise is superficially about AI, but behind it is the chip bill’s production shift expectations. The crypto world is still stuck in liquidity narratives, while the US stock market is already trading politics. This week, US stocks have indeed been moving quite aggressively. On August 4, the S&P 500 had just surpassed 7700 points; By August 13, it had already touched above 7800. In just seven trading days, the 100-point mark was pushed past just like that. The reason behind this is actually not hard to understand. The latest PPI fell short of market expectations, further strengthening signals of cooling inflation and clearly boosting expectations for a policy shift in September. Meanwhile, Citi raised its earnings forecast for the S&P 500 from $350 per share to $365, setting a target of 8,100 points. In other words, the market is now receiving three relatively positive signals at the same time: Inflationary pressures are declining, expectations for rate cuts are rising, and corporate earnings forecasts are being revised upward. When these three factors come together, capital naturally finds it easier to enter early, rather than waiting patiently outside the market. Even more interesting is the technology and storage sector. SanDisk's $XSNDK continues to perform strongly, rising about 2.7% in pre-market trading to near $161. The high gross margin released by investors and the expectation of ongoing shareholder returns are still being repriced by the market. Storage-related companies like SK Hynix and Micron also strengthened. This shows that capital is no longer speculating on the performance of a single company, but rather on improving expectations for the overall storage industry chain. On the other hand, Gold's performance was rather intriguing. Gold prices have fallen from their highs to around 4370. According to traditional logic, rising rate cut expectations should support gold, but this time gold did not continue to rise and instead pulled back. This may reveal an even more important signal: Risk appetite for capital is returning. If the market believes inflation is cooling and the economy has not clearly slowed down, then there is no need for all funds to hide in gold, a safe-haven asset. So we see a very interesting combination: U.S. stocks keep hitting new highs, the storage sector remains strong, while gold has retreated from its peak. The three market moves actually point to the same macro logic—inflationary pressures ease, but the economy hasn't deteriorated enough to require comprehensive risk avoidance. The S&P 500 has now firmly held near 7800, less than 3% from 8000 points. Combined with the market's upward revision of earnings expectations and the potential passive capital demand from Reddit's upcoming inclusion in the S&P 500, the market indeed has momentum to continue pushing upward in the short term. So I'm not pessimistic about 8000 points. But there is one thing I will not change: Being bullish does not mean chasing highs. The current macro trend is indeed bullish, and capital risk appetite is improving, but prices have already moved a long way. At times like this, you shouldn't forget that drawdowns themselves are part of the rally just because the market is strong. My approach is simple: You can be bullish on the direction, but there's no need to rush the position. If a normal pullback occurs later and key support is confirmed, then compared to chasing directly now, the profit-loss ratio at that level might actually be more comfortable. The market won't just go upward just because everyone is bullish. The truly comfortable opportunities are often not the most active times, but the moment after a pullback and the trend is confirmed again. $BTC $DOS #标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit 美国7月通胀数据继续降温。PPI环比持平，6月为下降0.1%；同比增速从5.5%下降至4.7%。商品价格环比下降0.7%，能源和食品价格回落贡献较大，服务价格上涨0.2%。此前公布的7月CPI同比上涨3.4%，核心CPI降至2.5%。连续两份偏软的通胀数据明显降低了市场对9月加息的定价，目前市场预计美联储9月维持3.5%—3.75%利率区间的概率接近68%。分歧仍然集中在核心PCE，市场预计核心PCE仍明显高于2%的长期目标。 7月FOMC会议本身已经出现9比3的投票结果，三名委员支持加息。现在美联储内部形成的核心矛盾，是通胀正在下降，同时当前通胀水平仍然偏高，8月通胀和就业数据会继续影响9月决策。也许降息就在眼前。哈哈，幻想一下也好。不过大概率是维持了 The most dangerous moment on the board isn't when Wang Yi is attacked like a storm, but when you carefully calculate the discarded piece after twenty moves, only for your opponent to concede on the seventh move—this means all your calculations become sweat in the face of reality. Today's game started with the chart posted on the financial report: Lumentum's revenue doubled 0.9%, Coherent rose 34%, Cisco went 18%, and Applied Materials rose 25%. Every result was like a beautiful opening move in Spain, with the tip pointed straight at the center. However, the market's reaction was like an experienced opponent crossing out "beautiful" on the score sheet and writing "doubt." Players all know that a good start is always just a facade. What truly determines victory is whether your capital expenditure can be converted into tears when the game is redeemed mid-game. When Cisco's annual orders reach 9.3 billion, that's the bishop you promised to break into Haig; But what the market sees isn't the sharpness of the attack, but the empty line of troops on your rear line. The brighter the numbers, the deeper the suspicion—like pushing both pawns into the enemy's half to make way for the chariot, but the city behind it becomes undefended. The midgame has arrived. The stock prices of Coherent, Cisco, and Applied Materials collectively retreated. This is not defeat, this is exchange. The opponent actively trades the queen, dragging the position into a protracted battle. They ask an extremely harsh question: how many pawns can you "increase" your pieces and how many lines you can hold in the endgame? The answer is undecided. But players will never hand over their kings to the unknown. Guidance is just the next step preset on the chess clock. Lumentum says next quarter 1.23 billion to 1.27 billion, but that's not a horn of confidence, it's your vanguard pawn. Unfortunately, when you keep gambling to maintain the position, a smart defender won't engage you in a duel; he'll quietly count your remaining troops, then retreat to the baseline, wait for your offense to run out, and then strike back. AI infrastructure orders are a long, asymmetric war. You will win many local battles, but ultimately, the outcome will be whether you can transport troops to the opponent's secondary bottom line without losing blood. What the market is doing now is breaking down every exaggerated long move move: Has your king truly moved to a safe zone? Is your chariot really connected? Is your formation still strong enough to hold the endgame? A true grandmaster never cares whether the outside world judges how flashy your moves are. They watch your every move like an eagle, at the cost behind it. They wait for only one moment: when you have to push your third pawn into enemy lines to maintain the offensive, and your bottom line reveals the only flaw—the general's timing. On this chessboard, no one had truly reached that point yet. But the air was already filled with the sound of horse neighs #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SandiskInvestorDayRally In the short term, the core of SanDisk's rally is the Investor Day on August 13. The company's long-term FY2028–FY2030 model is quite aggressive: revenue is expected to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, adjusted gross margin of about 80%, adjusted operating margin of about 75%, and free cash flow of about 50%. More importantly, SanDisk hopes to reduce the previously intense price cycles in the NAND industry through multi-year customer agreements, and has already signed agreements with eight customers. By FY2028, these contracts are expected to cover about two-thirds of BIT capacity. As a result, the market has begun to reassess SanDisk's future earnings stability. Afterwards, the stock price rose 13.7% in a single day by investors and about 25.8% cumulatively over four trading days, with Micron, Western Digital, and SK Hynix also being boosted. The most important question is: how long can a gross margin of around 80% be maintained? Won't upstream raise prices? Downstream bargaining power is actually so weak? Can profits still be maintained? $SNDK $BTC The biggest risk is not a drop, but "no rise despite good news": Tonight, $64,500 is the watershed Today BTC is trading around $63,000, with the Fear and Greed Index at only 37, still in the fear zone; more importantly, spot daily volume once dropped to about $1.19 billion, a low since 2019. The anomaly is: US inflation data is mild, US Treasury yields have fallen, and US stocks continue to strengthen—S&P 500 even hit a record high yesterday, but BTC did not follow. This indicates that the The Korean stock market rebounded more than 22% in ten days. I do not confirm the "technical bull market" as fundamentals Korean chip stocks still have medium-term potential, but this round of rapid rally is first due to deleveraging and position recovery, and secondly because the AI memory logic is being realized. As of the close on August 14, the KOSPI was 6,977.94 points, a cumulative rebound of about 24.8% from the closing low on July 30; On that day, Samsung Electronics rose 2.4%, and SK Hynix rose 3.26%. The 20% threshold only proves that prices have returned, not that profits have caught up. In the next phase, I will focus on two things: HBM orders, whether DRAM and NAND contract prices can continue to drive up profit expectations, and whether inventory will rebound after expansion. SK Hynix has approved about 19.1 trillion won to build the M17 NAND factory, planning to start construction in February 2027 and open its first cleanroom in December 2028. Supply will come sooner or later; whether demand can be met will be the key to success. On the 11th day of my stay, AI hardware total inventory is no more than 5%, and South Korea is holding 2% memory first. Only when contract prices strengthen for two consecutive months and next quarter's earnings expectations are raised simultaneously will the next quarter be increased by 1% in two separate phases; If inventory increases + gross margin declines for two consecutive quarters, the rate will be halved. It's just like in the crypto world: a 20% rise means capital has returned, but a sustained rise still depends on profits. #韩股十日反弹逾22%, chip stocks led the gains $SAMSUNG $SKHYNIX #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大国7月通胀数据双双走弱：CPI同比回落至3.4%、核心CPI降至2.5%；PPI环比持平、同比放缓至4.7%，均低于预期。数据落地后，交易员迅速下调年内加息押注——9月按兵不动概率升至约67%，年底收紧预期仅约23个基点，不足一次完整加息。货币政策重心正从"是否加息"滑向"维持多久"。然而分歧并未收敛，反而显化。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克逆势放鹰，称通胀仍高于3%且广泛存在，呼吁"现在就加息"，其上月与另外两名官员投下反对票，为2016年来最多。新主席沃什的杰克逊霍尔讲话、8月PCE及就业数据，将决定"鸽派数据"与"鹰派声音"的拉锯走向。中东油价与AI资本开支通胀，仍是悬在降温叙事上的变量。$BTC $ETH $SNDK $SNDK Is the rally a bubble game or a starting point for valuation revaluation? $SNDK surged again. Many in the market are still judging this round of market trends using the traditional storage cycle framework, but my core judgment remains unchanged: it cannot be simply defined as a cyclical target; AI storage is reshaping the valuation system. The underlying support for this round of rally comes from the continuous expansion of AI inference scenarios leading to enterprise-level NAND increments, long-term locked orders, and product structure optimization pushing the gross margin center upward. The continued strength of stock prices is essentially a new growth logic driven by capital gradually pricing in new growth. At present, I maintain a bullish stance, not just a gamble sentiment. The short-term stock price rise is indeed fast, but I won't exit solely based on the superficial reason of "too high a gain." The best strategy at this stage is to wait for financial reports to verify industry logic. As long as AI storage demand continues to exceed expectations and long-term NAND orders steadily land, $SNDK still has room for further value revaluation. In my view, the biggest risk currently facing a holding is not a short-term stock price correction, but that the strength of fundamentals cannot match the market's continuously rising expectations. As long as the core medium- and long-term logic remains intact, the original bullish market judgment remains unchanged.The construction elevator in the East Wing of the White House is opening access to the top-floor design room to select traders at a monthly price of $100,000. Ordinary investors stand outside the site's iron fence, waiting for the blueprint to be announced next month—while those inside the elevator are already discussing whether to raise the foundation by another half meter. I've been building for twenty-five years, and I've seen plenty of boldness in the blueprints. What truly makes a building stand in an eight-magnitude earthquake are the dozens of invisible friction piles underground, the steel plate hidden in the shear wall, and the twenty-eight days of patience during concrete curing. Every Tariff, War, and Monetary Policy statement by Trump is, in essence, a 'design change notice' for the entire financial market. A single change order can recalculate the load system of the entire building, shift the original load-bearing wall by fifteen centimeters—while ordinary investors are still waiting for the construction team to hold a regular meeting, and the meeting room doors haven't even entered. What Truth API did was turn this change notice into real-time paid streaming. Trading institutions spend $100,000 a month to achieve millisecond-level reach. What does that mean? The construction site is still piling, and they already know which rooms need vaults and which walls need blast-proof doors. Why? Because their accounts have the highest privileges on the design institute's computers. Ordinary investors are still reading blueprints in the sandstorm, while they're already standing atop tower cranes directing the lifting—even the concrete grades are checked by them first. As an architect, I deeply understand how fatal information asymmetry can be to structural structures. If design drawings are leaked to building material suppliers in advance, the entire project's bidding system will be distorted. The market is the same. Presidential speeches were once the drumbeats in public spaces, but now they're silenced by low-latency APIs, turning into a quiet conversation for a handful of people. Ordinary investors focus on candlestick charts for technical analysis, but it's just construction scraps spitted out after others crush them—you think you're reading blueprints, but you're actually reading their dried wall shell. XCH is just like a clivimeter tube on a construction site. On the surface, it settles steadily with the US stock market, but the actual internal stress has long exceeded the design limit. You might think you're observing market interactions, but you're just observing the transmission path of the information layer within the structure. When paid APIs become part of the underlying market protocol, the price curve is no longer naturally grown bamboo, but a potted plant that has been irrigated in a direction. No matter how attractive the shape, the roots will never reach the real soil. Building codes emphasize that all load-bearing components must undergo equal strength testing. The existence of low-latency APIs allows a few participants to obtain strength reports of uncured test blocks. This is not data service; it is selling mix ratios to contractors before load-bearing walls are poured. When policy statements clearly set prices, the "public space" of the market building becomes a facade—those so-called transparent design review meetings are nothing more than model sand tables for outsiders. If the message about load-bearing walls could be priced in milliseconds, then I suggest you look up—the foundation of this skyscraper is actually suspended in the clouds #trumptruthapilawsuit $SNDK saw massive volatility in pre-market trading today, likely driven by the positive news released yesterday. That catalyst appears to have absorbed much of the selling pressure around 1,100, while strong chip demand is once again grabbing attention. Is the memory-chip bull run making a comeback? Still, the move from just above 1,100 to over 1,600 in only two sessions is huge. It’s hard to believe there wasn’t significant profit-taking and selling pressure along the way. My view is that the this morning's data, both sides of it: retail sales fell 0.6% in july, worst month since may 2025. consensus expected a gain. and michigan sentiment cratered to 51 while one-year inflation expectations went UP. weakening growth plus rising inflation expectations is the quadrant central bankers have nightmares about. there's no rate for it. hikes hurt the growth side, cuts feed the expectations side. stocks rallied anyway, because soft data kills the september hike. the market is celebrating the disease because it delays the medicine. that trade works until it doesn't, and gold above $4,400 says somebody's already hedging the difference. #DailyOrbit Ethereum L1 abandoned Poseidon and switched to traditional hashing. In the short term, market risk appetite fluctuates due to algorithm replacement costs and delayed quantum-resistant iteration processes. Trading focus is shifting from short-term ZK premium to medium- to long-term technical capacity. Justin Drake confirmed that L1 abandoned Poseidon in favor of SHA or BLAKE solutions, declaring that SNARK proofs no longer need to compromise on complex hashes. This architectural adjustment boosted binary domain proof performance to 1 million calls per second and reduced computational overhead by 100 times. The priorities for market drivers are: the urgency of post-quantum security defenses, the system risks exposed by current lattice cryptography-based HAWK schemes, and compliance and restructuring costs of ecosystem projects migrating to traditional algorithms. Due to the risk of algorithm replacement events, leveraged positions are more sensitive to short-term technical route uncertainties. The upside scenario needs to observe the market's risk appetite returning to long-term certainty. As capital gradually absorbs migration costs and the post-quantum team strengthens the node of production-grade leanVM launch in 2027, the market will increase mid-term precipitation demand for spot $ETH, driving a rebound in derivatives net long positions. The downside scenario depends on compliance shocks and capital outflows triggered by projects within the ecosystem that rely on Poseidon during the replacement process. If restructuring costs exceed expectations or if the deployment schedule for 2028 is delayed, tightening risk appetite will directly suppress the willingness of long leveraged investors to continue, causing spot liquidity to exit the market. If market funds ignore algorithm replacement costs and only count this event as a technology upgrade dividend, positions priced in short-term sentiment will accelerate volatility. If subsequent test data proves that binary domain proof overhead cannot converge as expected, the long-term logic of technological reshaping will immediately fail. In the next 7 days, focus on monitoring the trend of contract open interest after technical releases, as well as the degree of capital support in the spot market for structural adjustments. #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨 US-Iran pressure escalates, long-term goals remain to be verified The volatility period tests patience even more. In the short term, the price is trading in a box range between $62,500–65,500, with bulls and bears balanced. At this time, "not taking action" is more important than "opening random orders." Why is it a "stagnant pool"? - Macroeconomic Suppression: The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, and high interest rates weaken risk appetite; Bitcoin often shows a negative correlation with real interest rates - Wait-and-see funds: Spot ETF funds have shifted from continuous outflows to "intermittent inflows," with institutions waiting for clearer signals - Supply concerns: If companies like Strategy are forced to liquidate their highly leveraged positions, it could create significant selling pressure - Hashrate resilience: When prices were halved, hashrate dropped by only about 23%, miners did not exit en masse, and the market did not experience a full-blown recession - Weakening of the halving cycle: The effect of the four-year halving cycle is weakening, and trends are more influenced by macro liquidity and institutional behavior - Regulatory expectations: Compliance frameworks such as EU MiCA are advancing, which will benefit traditional capital entry in the long term The "patience dividend" during the volatile period - Reduce losses: Avoid excessive trading and fee losses, preserving funds and energy - Wait for high win rates: Skip the "ambiguous zone" and focus only on the "confirmation zone" for high-probability opportunities - Avoid emotional fluctuations: Volatility can trigger retaliatory trading, and patience can help avoid such mistakes - Conserve strength: Save ammo for real trend markets Strategy list - Regular Placement (DCA): Buy small amounts as planned at the lower edge of the range or when panic signals appear to smooth costs - Breakout Trades: Wait for a valid breakout above the upper boundary (around $65,500) or a break below the lower boundary (around $62,500) before acting, avoiding repeated trial and error within the range - Position Management: No more than 20% of total funds for initial entry, leaving room for increasing positions or handling volatility - Multi-cycle resonance: Use daily charts to set direction, hourly charts to find entry, avoid "looking long but short-term" or "short-term but long-term" - Trend Following: Use tools like the 50/200-day moving average to identify medium-term trends, and only trade when the trend is clear Divergence in market views - Cautious View: Gold hitting new highs, Bitcoin not breaking the $100,000 mark, indicating limited risk appetite; 2026 may continue to adjust and volatility may increase - Optimists: CZ believes 2026 may enter a "supercycle," with favorable policies and institutional allocation driving long-term upward movement - Institutional Outlook: Bernstein predicts it could reach $150,000 in 2026 and $200,000 in 2027, with the core logic being a "tokenization supercycle" $BTC SanDisk $SNDK unveiled a "counter-cyclical" long-term blueprint on Investor Day on August 13: mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth for fiscal years 2028-2030, non-GAAP gross margin locked at 80%, operating margin at 75%, and 100% excess free cash flow returned to shareholders. More importantly, the business model changed — signing about $94 billion long-term contracts (NBM) with eight customers, covering 50% and nearly 70% of shipments in fiscal 2027 and 2028, using multi-year contracts to hedge the cyclical fluctuations of traditional NAND. The stock price surged 13.67% in response that day. However, HBF's bet on AI inference "memory walls" is still in the sample stage, and competition and price decline risks from Yangtze Memory cannot be ignored. Whether this "de-cyclicalization" narrative can be realized remains to be seen Market Analysis | BTC's MA200 Centennial Moving Average Rule: The Great Way is Simple, But Beware of Strategy Failure Risk 📌 Core: The market circulates a set of BTC long-term trading rules, relying on the 200-day moving average (MA200) for bull and bear differentiation. Buy below MA200, and sell if the price stays above MA200 for over 1,000 days; This strategy has shown impressive results in historical backtesting, but as market structure iterates, it carries the risk of failure. Key points 1. The underlying logic of the strategy The MA200 is recognized as the bull-bear divide in the crypto market. - BTC falling below MA200: Considered a long-term bear market range, position in batches; - BTC holding above MA200 for over 1000 days: Seen as the end of a long-term bull market, gradually exiting; All other news, volatility, and short-term fluctuations are considered noise. The essence of this approach is to abandon short-term games and use moving averages to regulate trading discipline. 2. Variable that cannot be ignored: The market has changed BTC used to be mainly driven by retail investors; Now, with ETFs entering the market and institutional capital deeply involved, volatility has been reshaped, and the duration and rhythm of bull-bear cycles are changing. Rules that are valid for historical backtesting do not necessarily mean they will be repeated in the future; there is a risk of strategy failure and cannot be used as the sole basis for trading. 3. Supplementing the short-term perspective Short-term trading is not suitable for this long-term moving average system. Stocks like storage sector SNDK and SK Hynix are better suited for observing short-term resistance levels, industry catalysts, and capital sentiment, while BTC long-term moving average strategies are two completely different trading frameworks.July retail sales month-on-month rate—I was stunned when I saw the numbers just now. The market expected at least a 0.1% increase, but it ended up being a negative 0.6%. Look closely, it's negative. From the forecast of 0.1% to the actual -0.6%, a gap of 0.7 percentage points—a definite cliff-like drop. This data shows the total amount of daily shopping by ordinary people, with consumption willingness plummeting and the economic fundamentals visibly deteriorating. Honestly, I even suspect this data has been tampered with. A drop of 0.8 percentage points in just one month is an outrageous magnitude. Logically, after the CPI and PPI drop, retail sales crash as well—can prices still rise? Trump, for the sake of the election and to force the Fed to cut rates, really used some unscrupulous means. The CPI is not easily moved, and the PPI has most likely been slightly adjusted. Today's retail monthly rate probably didn't escape either. I've seen data three or four times in a row that all met expectations accurately or suddenly crashed; after so many coincidences, they cease to be coincidences. After this data set was realized, expectations for a Fed rate hike cooled off immediately. I now estimate the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped below 30%. What about the crypto world? After the data came out, Bitcoin fell to around $62,790, while Ethereum was around $1,875. Previously, with CPI and PPI cooling consecutively, the crypto community didn't keep up; today, even with retail sales crashing like this, they still didn't follow. The fact that good news doesn't rise is itself a signal—liquidity is too thin, and no one takes large orders when they fall. Bitcoin failed to hold at 63,000, and Ethereum at 1,900 became a short-term ceiling—it was smashed as soon as it went up. But things were quite different on Sandisk's side. Retail data is so poor, yet SanDisk's pre-market stock jumped 3.8%. JPMorgan just upgraded its rating to 'overweight', with a target price of $2,250. The logic is simple—the worse the retail, the closer the rate cut; The closer the rate cut, the more the valuation of long-term assets like AI hardware benefits. A couple of days ago, SanDisk released a bunch of numbers at investor day: gross margin at 80%, mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth, and 100% of the remaining cash returned to shareholders. Goldman Sachs gave 2200, JPMorgan 2250, and Susquehanna an even more impressive 3250. The market is currently trading a dual narrative of 'rate cuts close + AI stories are not over,' and SanDisk is stuck at the intersection of these two logics. But to be honest, I still have some doubts. With retail data collapsing like this, consumption is visibly shrinking—how long can AI capital spending stay unaffected? No matter how good SanDisk's long-term guidance is, it's still a 2028 issue. Can the current economic fundamentals really support a stock price of over $1,500? Here's the key point. If you have gold or silver in hand, don't get carried away at this moment. The overall trend is fine, and rising expectations of rate cuts are definitely positive for gold. But don't act impulsively in the short term. After that rapid rebound a couple of days ago, the technical correction isn't over yet. Until gold prices can firmly hold above 4410, it can only be seen as a rebound, not a reversal. The crypto world is the same—macro conditions are improving, but capital inflows need time, and retail data won't push Bitcoin back to 65,000 tonight. My strategy is simple: take advantage of this wave of positive news to surge, reduce positions around 4400 when necessary, pocket profits first, and patiently wait for pullbacks to lower levels before buying. Don't rush in just because the data looks good—I've been tricked by this kind of chasing market too many times. The greatest significance of this data is not to cause a direct surge now—but to tell us that once things stabilize later, the rebound will be faster, stronger, and more decisive. But for now, it's not enough to end this round of technical adjustments; short-term trading still needs more grinding and reshuffling. The real good opportunity is most likely next week. Stay steady, don't rush. My own position was reduced around 4400, and I'll consider buying back after it falls below 4350. Same goes for Bitcoin—if it can hold 62,000, then consider it. Entering now is no different from buying in. SanDisk...... To be honest, I'm a bit conflicted. The logic is clear, the story is good, but the stock price has already far outperformed expectations. Let's wait for a pullback to talk. Chasing in now is no different from chasing a rally in futures. #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term goals remain to be verified #CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened #CLARITY表决待定, SEC rules have not been implemented Crypto Market News Summary for August 14 Today, the crypto market was generally weak, with the core keyword being macro favors, but BTC did not rise; instead, liquidity showed signs of weakening. 1. $BTC Fell below $63,000 Today, it continued to fall from around $63,500, once falling below $63,000, and overall remains weak and volatile. Notably, the US PPI data released today came in below expectations, and employment data was weak, which theoretically creates a macro environment favorable for rate cut prospects, but BTC did not follow the rise. In other words, the market's current problem may no longer be purely macro, but rather a lack of buying demand within Crypto. 2. $BTC Spot ETFs saw net outflows for two consecutive days US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows for the second consecutive day, with a cumulative outflow of about $192 million over two days. This is the first time since the end of July that there have been two consecutive days of capital outflows. This signal is quite important because if institutional funds do not clearly bottom-fish during BTC pullbacks, it indicates that the actual buying interest in the market is not strong. Now, a rather obvious divergence has emerged: US stocks are relatively strong Macro data is dovish Expectations for rate cuts have improved BTC has instead weakened ETF funds continue to flow out In the short term, this structure is not friendly to bulls. 3. Crypto regulation in the US has been delayed The market was originally looking forward to the SEC discussing a new crypto regulatory framework today, including token issuance, financing exemptions, digital asset regulation, and tokenized stock. However, the SEC canceled the scheduled meeting at the last minute, and the U.S. Senate's push for the CLARITY Act was also delayed. The anticipated regulatory catalyst did not materialize, putting some pressure on short-term market sentiment. 4. Tether completed a complete independent audit for the first time Tether today announced that KPMG US has conducted a complete independent audit of its 2025 financial statements. This is Tether's first comprehensive audit of this level. This event has significant long-term significance for the crypto industry. USDT has long faced issues with transparency in reserve assets, but the involvement of large audit firms means Tether is moving further toward the traditional financial system. For USDT, stablecoins, RWAs, and the on-chain dollar ecosystem, this is a positive long-term signal. 5. Norway's sovereign fund BTC exposure continues to increase Norway's sovereign wealth fund's indirect Bitcoin exposure continues to hit record highs, while the Norges central bank's investment management department disclosed about $88 million in Bitmine. Although this does not mean the Norwegian government is directly buying BTC, it indicates that traditional institutions are increasing their exposure to crypto assets through publicly listed companies and other means. From a long-term perspective, this is a relatively positive signal. 6. About $1.48 billion in BTC and ETH options expire Today, about $1.48 billion in BTC and ETH options expire, with about $1.3 billion for BTC and about $180 million for ETH. Options of this size tend to amplify short-term volatility when expiring. So from tonight to tomorrow, if BTC experiences rapid up-and-down insertion or sudden volume surge, it wouldn't be surprising. 7. What is the current market view? Short-term: Bearish Medium-term: Bearish in consolidation Long-term: Fundamentals have not significantly deteriorated Currently, the most noteworthy support is around $62,000 for BTC. If there is clear spot buying around $62,000 to $63,000 and ETF funds turn into net inflows again, then this decline may just be a normal correction. But if BTC falls below $62,000, and ETFs continue to see continuous outflows, ETH remains weaker than BTC, and altcoins continue to fall further, then caution is needed for a deeper wave of risk release. The three indicators truly worth watching now: First, can BTC hold at $62,000? Second, whether ETH can regain the upper ground near $1900. Third, whether U.S. BTC ETF can resume net inflows in the next 2 to 3 trading days.The S&P 500 is approaching 8,000 points, with the index itself at its all-time high, and valuations have also entered historically high levels. As of August 13, the S&P 500 closed at 7,798.99 points, setting a new all-time closing high. Based on earnings for the next 12 months, the current S&P 500 expected P/E ratio is about 20 times, down from over 22 times at the beginning of the year, mainly due to rapid upward revisions in corporate and market earnings expectations in Q2. Looking at the longer term, the Schiller CAPE, which is better suited for comparing historical valuation positions, has now reached about 42.6 times, with a record high of about 44.2 times, and current levels are close to the top of the 2000 internet bubble. Based on historical percentiles, CAPE is currently around the 99th percentile, meaning that in the past hundred years or so, valuations have only been higher than 1% of the time. So the current S&P 500 has formed a clear combination: the index is at a historic high, corporate earnings growth remains strong, and long-term valuations have entered the historically high range of around 1%. Whether the 8,000-point level can hold above largely depends on whether AI investments can continue to convert into profits and whether earnings growth in the coming years can absorb current valuations. $SPY $XSPY #SP500Nears8000 🔥🔥🔥The SEC canceled the meeting 🔥🔥🔥 at the last minute, blocking both regulatory avenues Last night, I saw a message that instantly sobered me up. The SEC originally scheduled a meeting today to propose the "Regulation Crypto" rule, but it was canceled at the last minute citing "unforeseen scheduling issues." New date? Not announced. This is already the second option blocked. Last week, the CLARITY Act was confirmed to be postponed to September, and the probability of passage on Polymarket dropped from 70% at the beginning of the year to 14%. Democrats are demanding an ethics clause involving the Trump family's $1.4 billion crypto business. The Republican Party needs 60 votes for 53 seats, with only two people currently openly backing it. Legislation can't be pushed forward, and administrative rules have become outdated. U.S. crypto regulation has entered a double stagnation. But Bing's reaction was quite strange—it only fell 0.7%, hovering around 62,900. The anti-corruption index was 29, extreme fear, but the price didn't crash. This means those who should have run have left, and the rest are holding on. The ETF sector is even more divided. Last week, $850 million flowed in for five consecutive days, and this week it has seen four consecutive days of outflows. ARKB redeemed $58.8 million in one day, FBTC redeemed $55.1 million. But UBS just paid 13F and bought $90 million in IBIT. BlackRock sold $5 million worth of BTC yesterday, but their clients have bought a total of $60 billion since 2024. 60 billion versus 5 million—a 12,000-fold difference. Looking at it a step back, institutions haven't left at all. Short-term sentiment is indeed bad. No regulatory solution, ETFs are flowing out, and the anti-corruption index is 29. But every time a regulatory negative issue creates a pitfall, looking back, it's always a temporary bottom. The problem is, how many people have the phrase "look back" have caused—when you're in the pit, you don't know if it's a trap or a bottom. "The most dangerous thing in the market isn't negative news, but when bad news comes, you don't know whether to be afraid or greedy." My choice: place a long position at 62,000, stop loss at 61,500. What I'm betting on isn't the SEC, but what is smart money doing when the fear index is 29? Do you think regulatory stagnation is panic or opportunity? $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike disagreements are widening 美国对无人机以及相关零部件征收高昂关税的背后，是在这场美伊战争中意识到了自身无人作战的缺点，特朗普准备依靠关税刺激产业回流以及保护美国本土产业的发展！这个消息中可以看到，关税针对的不只是中国，显然并非是防止中国产业冲击，同时对盟友也提高了高昂的关税结合昨天美国中央司令部在中东成立首个无人机特遣队，双方是一个因果关系，很显然这次美伊战争，特朗普嘴上强硬，但是美军的不足已经明显暴露美伊战争，伊朗的廉价无人接大量威胁美国军队，导致美军加速组建无人机特遣队对抗，而在产业上，美国发现自身无人机领域发展明显落后，此时想要发展，就必须要做到两点一手保护本土无人机产业不受外部冲击，一手提高关税刺激外部产业回流美国，与此前特朗普全球关税刺激工业回流美国是一个套路一场美伊战争，对美国来说也并非没有好处，起码检验了作战能力，武器部署，以及对战争损耗进行了一个全方面评估。当然，无人机的问题跟稀土其实是一回事，中国的无人机技术并非是完全断带领先美国，但是从产能，供应链以及低成本与效率上，光靠关税美国还是无法改变问题， #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 Recently, #OKX launched the Hong Kong Xiaomi $XIAOMI, and I'm aggressively shorting! I recently visited the showroom to see the Xiaomi Pengcheng N90, and I personally predict that this car will most likely have low sales in the future. Not only is the exterior and interior extremely ugly (compared to the Yu7), but the driver's and front passenger seats are so short they look like a small bench. As a travel car, long-distance self-driving is a must-have scenario for this car. With such a short driver's seat cushion, driving for over an hour can cause extreme fatigue (see Figure 4. Compared to other brands, the Pengcheng has a 365mm seat cushion in the same 9 Series SUV, making it a small bench). Why are the driver's and front passenger seats designed so short? Because the seats need to rotate. This is truly an inhumane design. Not to mention how much time and scenarios require the swivel seat, such a short cushion and such a long rotation time are simply dumb! Pengcheng is a car brand and model independently developed by Xiaomi, reportedly taking three and a half years to develop and costing over 20 billion RMB in R&D costs. With this product, honestly, aside from being a price butcher, everything else has been completely drained! No more criticism, shorting Xiaomi and DYOR. By the way, #OKX company's financial interface is really exquisitely designed. At first glance, you might think it's from Futu Securities, but the effect is maximized! Personally, I suggest adding ratings and target prices from various investment bank analysts for even better results! "Micron surges! Stock price nears $1,000, executives threaten: Storage shortage will worsen in 2027" Micron (MU) Today's Market and Updates Overview (August 15, 2026) Micron Technology (US: MU) has recently fluctuated around $960, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.08 trillion. Since the beginning of this year, Micron has risen more than 200%, but after peaking above $1,200 in June, there was a significant pullback, and it has since fallen about 20% from its peak. Recently, as sentiment in the memory sector has warmed up, stock prices have strengthened again, and the market has refocused on the AI memory supercycle. ### Key News and Catalysts 1. **Latest Executive Statement (August 11 KeyBanc Forum)** Micron's Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer clearly stated: - AI demand continues to exceed expectations - Storage supply and demand will be even tighter in 2027 than in 2026 - It is currently unclear when supply will catch up with demand This statement directly boosted market confidence, and the storage sector bucked the trend and strengthened that day. 2. **HBM and Data Center Demand Explosion** Micron's HBM capacity is basically sold out through 2026, and orders for 2027 are rapidly filling. The data center business has become the absolute mainstay, with gross margins soaring above 80% in the last quarter, and profitability improving significantly. 3. **Collaboration with SanDisk** After SanDisk released aggressive long-term guidance on Investor Day, sentiment in the entire storage sector warmed up. Micron, as the leader in DRAM+HBM, also benefited simultaneously, showing a recent technical rebound. 4. **Institutions and Market Sentiment** Some analysts still set high target prices, expressing optimism about the long-term shortage logic driven by AI. At the same time, the market is concerned about cyclical pullbacks and competition from China, leading to increased stock price volatility. ### How to View Technical Aspects and Valuation? - **Short-term**: Around $960, the consolidation zone after a pullback from the highs is in the zone, with the $1,000 level above and support in the $850–$900 range below. - **Mid-Term**: This year's gains have been huge, short-term profit-taking pressure remains, but fundamentals provide strong support. - **Long-term**: AI's demand for HBM and high-speed DRAM is widely seen as a structural opportunity rather than a simple cyclical rebound. ### In a nutshell **SanDisk is telling the NAND story, Micron is telling the HBM story, and together they support the AI storage supercycle. ** Executives personally called out that "2027 will be even more scarce," prompting the market to reconsider: will this round of memory price hikes be longer and fiercer than before? Micron near $960—is it a buying opportunity after a pullback, or a risk zone for high-level fluctuations? Are you currently bullish on Micron and a wait-and-see type, or do you think you should be cautious about a big rally? Share your thoughts in the comments section. $MU The most interesting aspect of tonight's data isn't 'weakening US consumption,' but rather that the crypto world isn't following the script at all. U.S. retail sales in July fell 0.6% month-on-month. When such data comes out, the market's most straightforward explanation is usually: the economy is cooling and easing expectations are getting closer. But BTC didn't cooperate to tell this story. $BTC In the past 24 hours, it was about -1.8%, $ETH about -1.3%, and $SOL about -1.5%. What's even more noteworthy is that in the past full hour, BTC trading volume reached 3.62 times the recent median, and ETH also reached 2.82 times—prices are falling, but volume is picking up. But funding rates are hardly crowded, with BTC at about +0.0006% and ETH at about -0.0011%; Open interest has remained basically unchanged compared to the previous round of accumulation. At least for now, it doesn't seem like an extreme bullish stampede, but rather as real trading volume pouring in as the market digests the news. So tonight, don't rush to memorize the formula "data gap = interest rate cut = crypto rally." What really matters is why prices don't rise after bad news comes out. The market's reaction to news is often more honest than the news itself. Are you more willing to bet on the relaxed narrative that follows, or should you first respect the fact that "prices haven't risen"? $ETH $BTC $SNDK #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term goals remain to be verified While PPI cooled, US Treasuries surged to 5.216%. This may be the most counterintuitive signal of the year. Yesterday, the US released its July PPI, which was below expectations. Logically, with easing inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve should be able to breathe a sigh of relief. On the same day, the Treasury auctioned 25 billion 30-year Treasury bonds, with yields soaring to 5.216%, a 24-year high. On one side is good news; on the other, the market is voting with its feet. Many people see "bid multiplier 2.39" and think no one is buying, but that's a misunderstanding. 2.39 means demand remains; the key is what price range to buy. Buyers make it clear: if it's below 5%, I won't buy. This is quite interesting. Short-term inflation data improves, but long-term borrowing becomes more expensive. Because the 30-year Treasury is not about whether the Fed will raise interest rates next month. It is betting on three things: whether U.S. inflation can stabilize over the next 30 years, how long the fiscal deficit can hold, and how much more the U.S. government will borrow. The answer is not optimistic. Federal debt is approaching $40 trillion, oil prices and geopolitical conflicts could push inflation up at any time, and the Fed is no longer buying bonds to cover the bottom. Long-term interest rates are essentially repricing U.S. fiscal credit. This is important for BTC. Many people habitually believe that "cooling inflation = rising rate cut expectations = good for risk assets." But this chain is missing a link: if the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield stays around 5% long-term, it is the safest 5% return in the world. Stocks, gold, and BTC all compete for capital. The Fed's decision not to raise rates is just one less negative factor, which does not automatically mean liquidity will flow into BTC. The real variable is when long-term rates will come down. PPI addresses "how fast prices are rising now," while 30-year government bonds ask "how much your money will be worth in the next 30 years." Two questions, two timelines—the market has given completely different answers. #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term targets remain to be verified, #CPI与PPI同步降温 rate divergence widens by #CPI与PPI同步降温, and rate divergence widens by $SNDK $BTC $ETH Regulatory clarity has once again shifted from "soon" to "wait a little longer." The SEC canceled a key meeting originally scheduled to discuss crypto issuance rules; Meanwhile, the Senate has adjourned, and the CLARITY Act has yet to be voted on. The market's interpretation is bearish, but the core issue is not a single token but another delay in U.S. crypto regulatory clarity. In the short term, this will dampen capital appetite for exchanges, DeFi, token issuances, and risk assets like BTC and ETH. Next, focus on three things: the reaction of US crypto concept stocks, key BTC support, and whether the September agenda can be reconnected. The longer the policy window drags on, the easier the rebound will be suppressed by uncertainty. Source: Cointelegraph #BTC #ETH #Crypto100W This is based on the historical patterns of the U.S. midterm elections The best window for BTC to position is in October, It is highly likely to start an upward movement in early October Before the November 3 election, the market's average maximum drawdown was about 16%. Looking at the longer timeframe and statistics since 1950, The Nasdaq closed higher in all 12 months following election day, with a 100% win rate Not a single exception If you buy the S&P 500 on election day The following year was almost a guaranteed profitable market Average return rate reaches 18.6% This cycle pattern spanning decades still holds strong reference value today So what we need to do now is wait for the market's final drop 還是要來跟大家提一下 SpaceX 的部分。基本上這個標的就是一個新標的，所以短線上我真的沒什麼好講的，我還是建議大家長期定期定額地購買它。雖然短線上可能會有一些波動，但是長線來看，五年內我覺得買它的投報率應該會比納斯達克指數還高。消息面部分，沙特主權基金 PIF 揭露美股持倉，SpaceX 是其主要投資標的之一，機構持股佈局進一步浮出檯面另外馬斯克本人持股規模也首次完整揭露，截至 6/30 持有約 64.2 億股、占公司總股份約 48.4%。不過近期股價也承受一定壓力，主要是 IPO 解禁後早期員工跟投資人的限售股陸續釋出，籌碼供給增加，市場短線消化壓力較大。基本面方面，摩根士丹利維持樂觀看法，認為靠 AI 業務挑戰可能上看 300 到 600 美元的長線目標；公司也表示 AI 業務營收預計最快下個月就會超越太空業務本身，年底 ARR 目標挑戰 1000 億美元。整體來說機構跟長線題材偏多，但短線解禁籌碼是壓抑股價的主要因素。CME Hedge Fund, BTC Futures Turn Net Long: Abnormal Position Changes in Wall Street Capital In the CME Bitcoin futures market, hedge fund positions have shifted to net long. Purely short positions for arbitrage are shrinking, and bullish aggressive long bets are emerging. CME Hedge Fund Net Position: An important indicator of whether institutions hold short positions for spot arbitrage (basis trading) or long positions targeting directional gains in the futures market. From arbitrage to directional betting: shifting from a risk-free "spread-taking" strategy of ETF buying + futures short to truly targeting gains with "directional buying," capturing the potential for capital flows Constraints and Hallucinations: Due to data discrepancies caused by CFTC regulatory aggregation standards (standard futures vs. micro futures), caution is warranted regarding confirmation of full buy conversions True bull market conditions: The combination of the "three drivers" of supply and demand—CME short positions continuously shrinking, spot ETF inflows, and strong spot buying—is a key turning point for Wall Street institutions shifting their Bitcoin buying purpose from "risk hedging" to "directional investment." The trend of spot ETF inflows and changes in the derivatives market structure are worth watching.

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