Orbit Post Sitemap
I'm bearish on SpaceX
Starting August 20, internal shares will begin to unlock in batches again, with 44% of internal shares available for sale in September. The pressure will continue until December 8, when the circulating supply will expand nearly 10 times, significantly increasing the number of chips. Referencing Facebook in 2012, on August 20, the negative news will turn positive, and then it will be a good time to go long. Refer to the first unlock and rally on August 6
$SPCX Flash Rescue co-founder Darcy revealed that the Ponzi scheme project ODY targeting victims in China issued an additional 10 billion tokens on July 28 and withdrew about 15 million USDT from the trading pool. Currently, the tracked ODY-related aggregated funds are at least of this scale.Earnings surged 372%, but the stock price dropped 47%—SanDisk's Investor Day: a "self-rescue" or a "reversal"?
Have you ever seen a company like this?
Revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%.
Profit is 135 times that of the same period last year.
Gross margin at 84.6%, ridiculously high.
The board also approved a $14 billion buyback plan.
Then, the stock price dropped more than 10% in two days.
From the historical high of $2354 in June, it fell all the way to $1238—market cap evaporated by 47%, over $150 billion lost.
You read that right.
This is SanDisk.
On the night the earnings report came out, I stared at the screen for ten minutes.
Revenue beat expectations, profit beat expectations, gross margin beat expectations, buyback beat expectations—four "beats" stacked together, yet it fell 7% after hours.
What logic is this?
Because the guidance for the next quarter was "not impressive enough."
SanDisk expects next fiscal quarter revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion—while Wall Street's most optimistic forecast is $11.16 billion.
Just $600 million short.
A $600 million gap, and the market punishes with a $150 billion market cap loss.
Wall Street now demands not "good," but "perfect."
What’s even more painful is the truth behind SanDisk’s recent surge.
Many think the 372% revenue surge is due to a global storage demand boom.
Wrong.
Management said plainly: Of the 51% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, only one-third came from increased shipments—the remaining two-thirds came from price hikes.
This is not a demand-driven boom.
This is a bubble inflated by price increases.
TrendForce data shows NAND contract prices rose 70% to 75% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, but the increase sharply dropped to about 20% in Q3.
The price hike momentum is slowing down.
But the other side of the story is also interesting.
SanDisk has signed 10 "new business model" long-term agreements, locking in supply for 8 core customers over the next four years.
More than half of the supply for fiscal 2027 is already locked in, and about two-thirds for fiscal 2028 are arranged.
These agreements guarantee a minimum revenue of $93.9 billion, with $16.5 billion in customer default protection.
The CEO said something in the conference call that left a strong impression:
"In the past, we could only forecast demand within 3 months; now we hold locked purchase volumes for over four years."
From "looking three months ahead" to "looking four years ahead"—this is a real qualitative change.
So, the core question SanDisk’s management must answer on Investor Day, August 13, is:
Are you a cyclical company surviving on price hikes, or a platform company crossing cycles with long-term agreements?
The market currently chooses to believe the former—hence the stock price halving from its peak.
But if management can prove the latter on Investor Day—prove that the NBM agreements are not just for show, prove that AI storage demand is not a short-term pulse but a long-term trend, prove that the 84.6% gross margin is not a peak but the new normal—
then the current $1238 price might be the bottom for the future.
The market never fears a company making less money.
What the market fears is—you don’t know if you can make this much next year.
SanDisk tries to answer this with 10 long-term contracts and $93.9 billion in minimum revenue guarantees.
But investors are not yet convinced.
On August 13, it depends on whether management can tell this story well.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $SAMSUNG #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解 Broadridge disclosed that its distributed ledger repurchase platform DLR processed over $8 trillion in transaction volume in July, with a daily average of about $365 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28%.
This figure is not public chain TVL, nor is it $8 trillion flowing into Crypto. It corresponds to institutions using distributed ledgers to complete repurchase settlements and real-time tokenized collateral transfers within the existing trading and clearing systems.
This kind of news does not stimulate coin prices but indicates that on-chain settlement on the institutional side already has a considerable business volume.AI infrastructure is becoming as much a financing story as a technology story. Nvidia’s platform with BlackRock, Blackstone and Goldman Sachs targets more than $500B in third-party capital for customer data centers and GPUs, though deals remain pending. Intel, meanwhile, may lift its own offering from $15B to about $20B after attracting over $100B in orders.
The distinction matters: external capital can support customer demand, while equity issuance funds Intel’s own buildout and raises dilution questions. As spending scales, funding structure may become a sharper valuation signal than headline demand alone. Not advice, just analysis.
#AIInfraFundingDivergesMarkets Are No Longer Watching the Deal. They're Watching Whether It Can Be Implemented.
Markets initially welcomed reports that Iran and Oman had reached a preliminary understanding on new shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz.
Now, attention has shifted.
The biggest questions are no longer about whether an agreement exists—but whether commercial shipping can actually resume under increasingly complex conditions.
Reports suggest unresolved issues include sanctions compliance, insurance coverage, transit rules and enforcement responsibilities. Iran's parliament is also considering tighter transit regulations, adding another layer of uncertainty.
This matters far beyond the energy market.
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil shipments, making it one of the world's most strategically important trade routes.
If disruptions persist, higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated, complicate central bank policy and delay expectations for easier monetary conditions.
That's where crypto becomes part of the story.
Bitcoin doesn't trade on shipping lanes.
It trades on liquidity.
And liquidity is heavily influenced by inflation, interest rates and broader macro conditions.
Sometimes the most important crypto catalysts begin far outside the crypto industry itself.
Do you think geopolitics will play a larger role in crypto markets over the coming years than many investors currently expect?
Share your thoughts below 👇 #HormuzDealUnresolved Builder fireplace affiliated with Polymarket Developers announced it will shut down
From the mainnet launch in late January to closure, just over half a year, during which it also raised $1.5 million
After the World Cup, prediction markets may be entering a winter, which is an even bigger blow to small end platforms
There are over 450 Polymarket Builders, but weekly trading volume has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, and more small platforms may shut down one after anotherSpaceX's short squeeze rally this week has been quite steady, without even a single step back, allowing the bulls who have been suppressed for two months to finally breathe a sigh of relief.
Yesterday's close rose 4.23% to 138.74, maintaining stability. Besides its own factors, the market speculates that RKLB's earnings report and the failure of the Zhongxing 4B launch also impacted SPCX's stock price, but the main driver is still its own independent logic.
For commercial aerospace, the launch itself is just infrastructure, while the functions provided by the satellites are the real business. The entire industry is now turning into mini SpaceX's; the battle of business models is over, and what remains is the battle of scale.
The failure of the Long March 7 modification will raise SpaceX's reliability premium and will put the brakes on China's narrative of weakening SpaceX's technological scarcity. It may add fuel to the current short squeeze, but it is not decisive. If the final fault investigation confirms that the problem lies with the shared core of the entire new generation Long March family—the YF-100 engine—then it will very likely postpone the bearish catalyst hanging over SPCX in Q4.
Tomorrow night's CPI data probably won't be lower than last month, since oil prices have been rebounding since early July. But it won't be very high either, because oil price transmission has a lag, and the main impact of the oil price rebound will show in next month's data. Judging from today's gold price trend, the current pullback looks more like profit-taking after a rally and waiting for the CPI, rather than proving the market has completely ruled out rate hike risks. Therefore, the US stock market should not be bullish before the CPI data is released. $SPCX 🚨 SEC to Launch First Major Crypto Rulemaking on August 14
The U.S. SEC will hold a public meeting this Friday to formally propose "Reg Crypto," establishing a tailored issuance mechanism for certain crypto asset investment contracts. This marks the SEC's first official rulemaking initiative specifically targeting crypto.
The highly anticipated CLARITY Act has been delayed in the Senate and did not advance before the recess. However, the SEC has chosen to accelerate its actions, indicating that regulation is not stalled due to congressional gridlock.
Market impact: There may be short-term volatility, but in the medium to long term, this will provide a clearer compliance path, helping to attract institutional capital and reduce uncertainty.
My view is— the market will no longer solely bet on the CLARITY Act. With the SEC proactively advancing rulemaking, crypto market prices should stabilize and no longer overly depend on a single legislative outcome. Regulatory clarity is increasing, which is positive for long-term development. So ruthless! Nvidia's move of “getting something for nothing” is rubbing Intel into the ground? 🤯
Really shocked by Nvidia's financial skills! 👇
🔥 Nvidia's play:
They pulled in BlackRock and Blackstone to create a $500 billion financing platform.
To put it simply: I want to sell shovels, but customers don't have money to buy? No problem, I borrow money from Wall Street big shots for the customers, and the customers use that money to buy my shovels!
This is top-tier business closure—not only selling goods but also making money from finance, with almost no cost to themselves.
🩸 Intel's situation:
On the flip side, Intel is raising $20 billion by issuing more shares, which dilutes equity. Although the subscription is hot (over $100 billion in demand), this is clearly a "bleeding to survive" move—they have to reach out to the market for money to make chips.
💡 Lessons for retail investors:
When evaluating a company, look not only at the product but also at its "ability to raise money." Nvidia, which can mobilize external capital to do business, is the true king.
Beware of "all good news priced in." Intel's share issuance is positive (more money for expansion), but short-term equity dilution is real—don't rush in blindly.
AI infrastructure is still in the money-burning stage. Whoever can get money at the lowest cost will survive till the end. So far, Huang (Nvidia's CEO) is winning big.
What do you all think—can Intel turn things around this time?
#AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 1. First News: Trump's Statement on Three US Strategies Toward Iran
1. Core Information Breakdown
- Source: Xinhua News Agency citing Al Jazeera on the 11th, Trump's public statement in an interview with "Real America's Voice"
- Core Content: The three US strategies toward Iran are monitoring the deterioration of Iran's situation, launching a fierce strike against Iran, and exerting economic pressure on Iran; it also clearly states that the US controls a large amount of Iran's funds and assets, fully under US control
- Market Sentiment Tags: 6 positive, 20 negative; overall market interpretation is bearish
2. Geopolitical and Economic Impact Analysis
- Geopolitical risk sharply escalates: Among the three strategies, the military option of "launching a fierce strike against Iran" directly breaks the relative stability expectation of the Middle East geopolitical situation, potentially triggering military conflict risks in the region. As Iran is a major global energy exporter, such conflict would directly impact the global crude oil supply chain, pushing up oil prices and global inflation expectations.
- Increased economic pressure on Iran: The US's control over a large amount of Iran's funds and assets, combined with economic pressure strategies, will further restrict Iran's foreign trade and financial activities, exacerbating domestic inflation and currency collapse risks, while also affecting the stability of global energy market supply.
- Global risk aversion sentiment rises: Geopolitical conflict risks will directly reduce global market risk appetite, causing capital to flow into safe-haven assets such as gold, US Treasuries, and the Japanese yen. Global stock markets, especially high-risk emerging markets, will come under pressure.
2. Second News: Bitunix Analyst's Interpretation of Nonfarm Payroll Data and Exchange Rate Intervention Impact
1. Core Information Breakdown
- Core Event: US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, combined with Japan-US exchange rate intervention, intensifying global asset concerns over high funding costs
- Market Core Focus: US July CPI data, capital efficiency of the AI industry
- Core Interpretation Logic: Nonfarm data decline → US labor market cooling → overheating economic expectations broken → market reassesses Fed monetary policy path → urgency for rate cuts increases → but economic weakness undermines growth support → under risk aversion, funding cost pressure further rises → data becomes a key turning point reversing market expectations, indicating a substantial weakening of US economic growth momentum
- Market Sentiment Tags: 3 positive, 4 negative; overall market interpretation is bearish
2. Macro and Market Impact Analysis
- Fed monetary policy expectations completely reversed: Nonfarm employment is a core leading indicator of the US economy; the unexpected decline directly proves economic cooling. Market expectations for the Fed will shift from "maintaining high rates longer" to "earlier/faster rate cuts," putting pressure on the US dollar index and pushing US Treasury yields down with rate cut expectations.
- Contradictory impact of funding costs and asset valuations: Although rising rate cut expectations will lower funding costs long-term, short-term market risk aversion due to recession fears will push actual funding costs higher, pressuring valuations of global high-risk assets (especially high-valuation growth stocks and AI sector assets), as higher funding costs directly compress asset valuation space.
- Exchange rate market volatility intensifies: Japan-US exchange rate intervention means Japanese authorities have started to intervene against yen depreciation. Yen appreciation will directly affect Japanese exporters' profits and alter global exchange rate market capital flows. The USD/JPY trend will become a key variable affecting global stock and bond markets.
- Subsequent market core anchors: July CPI data is a key constraint on Fed monetary policy—if inflation remains high, the pace of rate cuts will be limited; if inflation declines synchronously, rate cut expectations will strengthen further. Meanwhile, the capital efficiency of the AI industry determines whether the previously favored AI sector can maintain high growth, directly impacting global tech stocks' performance.
3. Overall Market Impact Summary of Both News Items
Both news items point to a decline in global market risk appetite and a rise in risk aversion:
1. Geopolitical level: The US's tough stance on Iran directly pushes up Middle East geopolitical risks, benefiting safe-haven assets like crude oil and gold, while negatively impacting global risk assets.
2. Macro level: The US nonfarm data unexpectedly weakens, proving a slowdown in US economic growth momentum. Although rate cut expectations rise, short-term recession concerns will suppress risk asset performance, while a weaker dollar benefits non-US currencies and emerging market assets.
3. Overall transmission: The combination of both news will drive global capital to shift from high-risk stocks and growth stocks toward safe-haven assets such as gold, US Treasuries, and the Japanese yen, significantly increasing short-term market volatility.
$BTC $ETH
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 A Wall Street Legend from a Century Ago: How Did Jesse Livermore Predict the Crash?
Jesse Livermore was one of the most legendary speculators of the 20th century, known as the "Great Bear of Wall Street." His two most famous big wins were:
- Shorting the market during the 1907 financial panic
- Building a massive short position before the 1929 Wall Street crash
The 1929 trade reportedly earned him about $100 million (in the value of that time), making it one of the most famous short trades in financial history.
But what’s truly worth studying is not that "he predicted the crash," but rather:
He didn’t predict the date; he observed that the market structure was breaking down.
1. He looked at the "overall market," not individual stocks
Early on, Livermore liked studying individual stocks, but later he changed his approach:
Buy in bull markets, short in bear markets, follow the main market trend.
He believed stocks don’t move independently but are controlled by the broader market trend.
This idea is very close to modern concepts like:
- Dow Theory
- Market breadth
- Capital flows
- Macro cycles
2. Before 1929, he saw 5 danger signals
① Everyone believed "this time is different"
The 1920s US stock bull market:
- Retail investors flooded in
- Leveraged buying was rampant
- Stocks became a tool for everyone to get rich
When the market started to show:
"Stocks only go up"
This was a very alarming signal for Livermore.
Today, similar signals are:
- AI can’t be a bubble
- Tech stocks are always fairly valued at high multiples
- Every pullback is a buying opportunity
② Volume expands but price advance weakens
Livermore studied "price action."
He observed:
- Is it easy to push prices up?
- Is the decline accelerating?
- Are buyers unable to push prices higher?
For example:
Stock price:
100 → 120 → 130
But:
Volume increases
Price gains shrink
This indicates:
Big money might be distributing.
This is very close to modern concepts like:
- Wyckoff Distribution
- Volume Spread Analysis
- Smart Money Concept
③ Leading stocks start losing strength
At the end of a bull market, usually:
Phase 1:
Quality stocks lead the rally
Phase 2:
Secondary stocks catch up
Phase 3:
Junk stocks surge wildly
The market before 1929 was the same.
When weak companies start soaring, it means the last liquidity in the market is burning out.
④ Credit leverage is too high
Before 1929, many investors used margin to buy stocks.
Market rising:
Leverage → More buying → Higher prices
Forming a bubble.
But conversely:
Price drops → Margin calls → Forced selling → Crash.
This logic is the same today in:
- Margin trading
- Futures leverage
- Crypto liquidations
⑤ He waited for "market confirmation"
Livermore didn’t short immediately upon seeing a bubble.
His core principle:
Only add to positions when the market proves him right.
For example:
First observe:
- Important support breaks
- Weak rebounds
- Trend turns bearish
Then gradually increase shorts.
This is very important.
Many traders:
See overvaluation → Short immediately
Result:
The bubble can continue for half a year or even years.
3. Livermore’s 1929 trading pattern
General process:
Phase 1:
Hold longs during the bull market.
↓
Phase 2:
Start sensing market abnormalities:
- Extreme stock valuations
- Speculative frenzy
- Trend weakening
↓
Phase 3:
Build short positions.
↓
Phase 4:
Add to shorts after crash confirmation.
He made huge profits during the 1929 crash.
4. But Livermore’s biggest lesson: predicting doesn’t mean keeping the money
His tragedy:
- Once made huge fortunes
- Later went bankrupt multiple times
- Ended life in tragedy
Reason:
Not poor skill.
But:
No permanent risk control.
For example:
- Overconcentration
- Excessive leverage
- Overconfidence in his own judgment
5. Applying this to today’s market
Livermore’s method can be turned into:
A bull market end checklist
✅ Extreme market valuations
✅ Retail investor frenzy
✅ Media unanimously bullish
✅ Weak stocks soaring
✅ Volume expanding but price gains shrinking
✅ Leading stocks breaking key moving averages
✅ Increasing credit leverage
When many of these appear simultaneously:
Don’t short immediately.
Instead:
Reduce position size and wait for market confirmation.
Actually, your previous studies of Wyckoff, SMC, Willy Mid Tri + SMA200, and the capital rotation in the latter half of the AI bubble are very close to Livermore’s thinking:
He didn’t focus on "news," but on:
Capital → Trend → Crowd psychology → Market structure.
Livermore’s most classic quote:
"The market is never wrong; only people’s opinions are wrong."
This is why methods from 100 years ago are still studied today.#USWeighsIranStrike #HormuzDealStillPending
◇ The role of Beijing in peace agreements in the Gulf region!
* A long-standing and largest oil buyer of Iran
* 40% of China's oil imports come from Hormuz
* Part of the military partnership with Iran
* Has certain influence in the Gulf region
* Successfully mediated the Saudi Arabia - Iran conflict in 2003
* Exploits the conflict to reduce US credibility, strengthening the image of a new empire with the slogan "Responsible, no military intervention"
◇ What can Beijing do by participating in the reconciliation process?
* As the largest customer/military partner, Beijing can completely coerce or offer economic/military support packages to force Tehran to de-escalate and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
* In reality, China does not want the US to win, nor does it want Iran to continue escalating tensions that block the vital maritime route of Hormuz, directly affecting China's energy security.
* Maintains continuous connection with Washington while Tehran refuses direct negotiations.
◇ Results and timeline to achieve a peace agreement?
* Immediately after Beijing announced direct participation in peace agreements, attacks from both sides were temporarily halted.
* Gulf countries (Qatar, UAE, Saudi, Oman ...) are beginning to feel tired of the prolonged war, which directly affects the economy and civilians here.
* For now, there will be a temporary agreement (with a timeline) to open the Strait of Hormuz, reduce or suspend military activities. A nuclear agreement will be the final step to complete the peace mission for all parties.
* It is highly likely that this week there will be an agreement to open Hormuz, by the end of August commitments will be made to stop military activities between the parties (including Lebanon and Palestine). Around mid or late September, a nuclear agreement will end the conflict in this region.
♡ The market will continue to move sideways at least until the end of September 2026 "Money in the market is rotating, but BTC hasn't taken the baton yet"
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Q3 · Issue 98
Aspirin · Cycle analysis from a data scientist's perspective
Semiconductors have stepped down from the main stage, while healthcare, gold, and finance have moved up; BTC is still standing at the door.
At the close of the US stock market on August 10, semiconductor ETF SMH fell 2.32%, Nasdaq ETF QQQ dropped 0.31%. On the same trading day, healthcare XLV rose 1.67%, gold GLD increased 1.03%, financial XLF went up 0.40%, and the equal-weighted S&P RSP slightly rose 0.07%.
One night is not enough to declare the AI trade is fading, nor to see that a broad bull market has spread. A more market-close explanation is: the most crowded positions are starting to loosen, and funds are shifting to seek cash flow, low volatility, and safe-haven attributes.
This is very important for BTC. Every dollar sold from chip stocks does not automatically flow into the crypto market. Whether there is new money in the market determines if this is a healthy rotation or a risk reduction in a high-level market.
1. Last night's market gave a seating chart
If risk appetite is truly retreating broadly, equal-weighted indexes, finance, and healthcare usually would not all be supported simultaneously. RSP closing higher indicates buying has not disappeared; SMH's decline being significantly larger than QQQ's suggests funds are starting to be selective about the most expensive and crowded parts of the AI chain.
Long-term demand for AI has not been overturned by a single day's drop. The problem lies in price and position: when a sector already carries the most optimistic profit expectations, any slight disappointment in earnings, financing costs, or capital expenditures will cause marginal funds to look for cheaper seats. Healthcare has stable cash flow, finance benefits from high interest rates, and gold provides insurance against inflation and policy errors. Their strength last night precisely outlines current fund preferences.
Therefore, the index remaining high does not mean the internal structure hasn't changed. Focusing only on the S&P or Nasdaq's rise and fall easily misses the moment when seats have changed hands.
2. Market leverage is very high, and the index's strength increasingly depends on internal relay
The latest disclosed FINRA margin debt is $1.502 trillion, up 49.02% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the VIX remains near 15, and ICE BofA high-yield bond spreads were only 270 basis points as of August 7.
This data is awkward: positions and leverage are high, options protection is still cheap, and the credit market has not sounded alarms. The market has not yet been forced to deleverage but already lacks a thick cushion.
In this environment, the same funds find it difficult to simultaneously support semiconductors, gold, healthcare, finance, and BTC. They constantly compare odds: where expectations are too full, they withdraw a bit; where prices have fallen longer and cash flow is steadier, they sit a while. Rotation itself is not pessimistic but reminds us that the index's strength increasingly relies on internal relay.
Broad diffusion requires looser financial conditions. The equal-weighted index strengthening continuously, credit spreads remaining calm, the dollar and long-term yields falling, plus crypto ETFs flowing back in, would mark the market moving from seat swapping to adding more seats.
3. Why BTC hasn't taken the baton yet
Last week, US spot BTC ETFs had a cumulative net inflow of $865.3 million, ETH ETFs net inflow of $243.7 million. Yet prices did not form an effective breakout; BTC is still patiently hovering around $64,000.
By August 10, BTC ETFs turned to a net outflow of $144.6 million, ETH ETFs also net outflow of $14.6 million. A single day outflow does not equal a trend reversal, but it shows marginal buying is not continuous. A weekend bullish candle can come from thin liquidity; continuous ETF subscriptions are closer to real money passing the baton.
When funds flow from chips to healthcare and gold, BTC may continue to consolidate; only when new risk budgets appear, or the dollar and long-term rates fall simultaneously, will BTC more easily shift from "spectating rotation" to "participating in diffusion."
I prefer to treat ETF fund flows as a thermometer, not to treat every candlestick as the answer.
4. Tomorrow night’s CPI will separate rotation from retreat
The US CPI released at 20:30 on August 12 is the first stress test for this judgment. The data itself accounts for half; the other half is how the dollar, long-term US bonds, and market breadth vote.
If CPI is moderate, long-term yields and the dollar fall, RSP continues to outperform QQQ, and spot ETFs resume net inflows, this rotation has a chance to become a healthier upward diffusion. BTC standing back above $65,500 and holding would be a direct signal that the crypto market is taking the baton.
If CPI is hot, yields rise, SMH and BTC continue to be pressured, and even RSP, finance, and healthcare turn from gains to losses, then liquidity is declining. VIX breaking above 25 and high-yield bond spreads moving above 350 basis points would require rewriting "seat swapping" into broader risk reduction.
After CPI, four things will decide whether this judgment can be retained:
- Whether RSP can continuously outperform QQQ without the S&P breaking its upward structure;
- Whether VIX stays below 20 and high-yield bond spreads hold within 300 basis points;
- Whether BTC ETFs resume net inflows and prices reclaim $65,500;
- After CPI, whether gold's strength accompanies a dollar decline or comes from risk insurance demand.
Semiconductors only fell for one day; it's too early to write the ending for AI trading now; healthcare and gold took over for one night, but it's not enough to become the new main theme. At least wait two trading days after CPI to see if funds continue to diffuse.
The market is not short of stories; it lacks money that can support all stories simultaneously.
I will continue to record the same cross-asset risk signals, fund flows, and subsequent validations in the Aspirin · Cycle Lab group chat. Whether the judgment is right or wrong, the original record is kept for the next data to decide.
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Short gold!
Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, with no interest, cash flow, or dividends. Its sole pricing anchor is the real yield of the US 10-year TIPS, which is strictly negatively correlated.
Currently, the 10-year TIPS real yield is as high as 2.41%, with a breakeven inflation rate of only 2.26%, meaning the real interest rate has already surpassed the inflation level.
A simple analogy: Gold = a hen that doesn't lay eggs; interest-bearing bonds = a hen that lays eggs steadily every day.
With egg yields currently very high, everyone is selling the non-laying hens, so their price naturally falls. #AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化
Is SanDisk really able to stand at the crest of the AI wave, or is it doomed to the "highs and lows" of the cycle?
1. Company Overview: From Consumer Storage Giant to AI Infrastructure Rising Star
SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) is a global leader in flash storage solutions, founded in 1988 by Eli Harari and others, headquartered in California, USA. The company was acquired by Western Digital in 2016 and later spun off to relist as an independent company in February 2025.
· Core Business: Based on NAND flash technology, it provides storage solutions covering data centers, edge computing, and consumer markets, including solid-state drives (SSD), memory cards, USB flash drives, and embedded storage products.
· Market Position: As one of the world's top five NAND flash suppliers, SanDisk holds over 11,000 patents and has driven the development of industry standards such as SD cards. Notably, through a joint venture with Kioxia, SanDisk secures nearly one-third of the global flash supply at a relatively low cost.
2. Key Positive: The "Money Printing Machine" Model Under the AI Wave
SanDisk's recent explosive growth is entirely driven by the exponential demand for storage from AI.
1. Explosive Performance, Gross Margin Surpassing Nvidia
In Q4 of fiscal 2026, SanDisk delivered a record-breaking report: revenue of $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; GAAP net income reached $6.903 billion, compared to a loss in the same period last year. Its Non-GAAP gross margin soared to an astonishing 84.6%, even surpassing AI chip giant Nvidia, setting a new record in the NAND industry. The market attributes this to severe undersupply of NAND flash chips.
2. Strategic Shift: AI Data Centers as Core Engine, Long-Term Contracts Locking Future Revenue
SanDisk's business focus is rapidly shifting from the consumer market to the high-value enterprise market. Data center revenue this quarter was $2.977 billion, soaring 1298% year-over-year, with shipment bits rising from 12% a year ago to 38% of total shipments. More importantly, through the "New Business Model" (NBM), SanDisk signed 10 long-term agreements with 8 customers, locking in a minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion, accompanied by $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. This model aims to transform SanDisk from a highly cyclical chip wholesaler into an infrastructure supplier with stable cash flow.
3. Potential Negatives: Market Votes with Its Feet, Concerns Over "Cycle End"
Despite the impressive earnings, SanDisk's stock price plunged after the earnings release, nearly halving from its historical peak, reflecting two core market concerns.
1. Price Increases Driving Growth, Not Demand; Signs of Cycle Peak Emerging
The root of market worries lies in that two-thirds of this quarter's growth came from product price hikes rather than substantial shipment volume increases. The current high prices of storage chips have begun to backfire on downstream demand; PC manufacturers raised prices due to cost increases, leading to shipment declines, and smartphone makers strongly resist price hikes. Analysts point out that when the entire industry's profit margins exceed 70%, it often signals the peak of the industry's prosperity.
2. Lack of High-End Barriers, Likely to Face "Boom-Bust" Cycles
Unlike Samsung and SK Hynix's absolute technical barriers in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), SanDisk holds only a 2-3% global share in the enterprise SSD market and is seen as an industry follower. Institutions like JPMorgan believe SanDisk's current high profits reflect industry cyclical prosperity rather than structural company improvements. As major suppliers restart capacity expansion and 3D NAND technology upgrades, the industry is expected to return to a "boom-bust" pattern from 2027, making it difficult for SanDisk to maintain its ultra-high gross margins.
SanDisk is at a critical juncture transitioning from a consumer storage brand to an AI storage infrastructure supplier. In the short term, AI-driven supply-demand mismatches have earned it huge profits; in the long term, whether it can break the inherent cyclical curse of storage chips and build a true technological moat will determine if this is the prelude to a "king's return" or the "last celebration" #AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化
Recently, financing activity in the AI infrastructure sector has surged, with Nvidia and Intel taking distinctly different fundraising paths. The strategic differences between the two companies directly impact their performance in the capital markets.
Nvidia, in partnership with top financial institutions such as BlackRock, Blackstone, and Goldman Sachs, has established a dedicated AI computing power financing platform, aiming to leverage over $500 billion in external funds. This money is not for Nvidia's own use but is lent to downstream companies for purchasing Nvidia GPUs and building new data centers, using external capital to drive sales of its hardware. However, after the announcement, Nvidia's stock price slightly declined as the market worries that massive credit could increase industry debt risks, potentially transferring repayment pressure to hardware demand.
In contrast, Intel has chosen to expand through self-funding, planning to increase its stock issuance to $20 billion. Market subscription demand exceeds $100 billion, with all funds raised invested in self-developed AI chips and factory construction, relying on equity dilution to strengthen its production capacity and technological barriers.
Both models have pros and cons: Nvidia's asset-light approach leverages massive orders for faster expansion but depends on the industry's credit cycle; Intel's asset-heavy self-development is more stable operationally, though short-term equity dilution may suppress valuation. Overall, the influx of huge capital indicates that AI infrastructure is still in a peak expansion phase, but rising industry leverage, potential future supply-demand surplus, and debt risks have become key investor concerns, leading to a more cautious market assessment of tech stock valuations.$BTC Is the sentiment really this bad now? Yesterday I saw BTC stagnating, and I thought maybe all the funds were waiting on the CPI. But the CPI hasn't even been released yet, and it already dropped below 64,000 last night? I guess some institutions are betting on the CPI exceeding expectations.
1. This week's market mainly depends on tomorrow's CPI data: the expectation is a year-over-year 3.42%, core 2.52%. If it's below expectations, it could mean no rate hike or even a rate cut, and BTC would go up; if it exceeds expectations, it will break below 62,000.
2. Institutions had net inflows yesterday, indicating some funds are withdrawing, probably because some institutions speculate the CPI data will exceed expectations. The current fear and greed index is 31, sentiment is positive, so retail investors probably won't run.
3. Regarding the CPI data and last week's non-farm payroll data, some friends asked if there could be falsification. It's actually quite possible, but consider this: government falsification is also to serve monetary policy. Non-farm payroll and CPI data themselves are meant to serve normal monetary functions, so even if falsified, interpreting policy from the data is still reasonable.
But I don't recommend betting on the CPI in advance, because retail investors' information sources are still much worse than institutions. Don't turn investing into a game of betting on size or luck. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges The $16.8 billion capital expenditure for the Terafab project landing in Texas has sparked concerns about high cash burn and rising macro funding costs. In-house manufacturing, while extending the investment return cycle, also reprices market risk appetite.
The initial $16.8 billion investment is concentrated on Terafab's self-developed AI chip factory in Texas, shifting the competition for computing power from leasing directly to heavy asset investment in manufacturing.
The core drivers of market pricing are, in order: cash flow squeeze caused by heavy asset investment, the expected long-term reduction in computing power costs from self-developed chips, and liquidity risk premium during the construction period.
The upside scenario assumes that capital expenditure is efficiently converted into capacity. If trial production progresses as expected and sustained demand can absorb this $16.8 billion fixed asset investment, the market's discount on heavy asset consumption will turn into a revaluation of vertical integration premium.
Variables to watch under this scenario include chip capacity ramp-up efficiency and the degree of unit computing power cost reduction. Failure signals include capital expenditure continuously exceeding budget and failure to achieve mass production within the scheduled time.
The downside scenario is triggered by high inflation and prolonged cash burn. When the $16.8 billion capital occupation causes liquidity tightening, or extended R&D cycles lead to capital returns falling short of expectations, short-term positions will rapidly reduce the risk appetite premium for the tech sector.
Variables to watch under this scenario include the rate of free cash flow deterioration and the suppression of heavy asset expansion by macro interest rates. Failure signals include smooth external financing channels and timely cash flow compensation by high-margin businesses.
If macro risk appetite contracts sharply or alternative technological paths emerge in the computing power manufacturing chain, the current assessment that the $16.8 billion heavy asset investment can secure long-term competitive barriers will be completely invalidated.
In the next 7 days, key observations should focus on fluctuations in macro funding rates following the confirmation of massive capital expenditure, and institutional position rebalancing trends in tech heavy asset targets.
#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解 #霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温 #火箭实验室财报超预期，商业航天热度延续Short-term BTC takeaway 📉📈
This post says Hormuz is currently a macro risk for BTC, but it can work both ways.
Bearish scenario: Hormuz tensions → oil ↑ → inflation expectations ↑ → Fed cuts become harder → DXY/yields ↑ → liquidity ↓ → BTC pressure.
Bullish scenario: Hormuz deal/reopening → oil risk premium ↓ → inflation pressure ↓ → easier Fed expectations → liquidity improves → BTC could benefit.
What to watch
🛢️ Brent oil
🌍 Hormuz negotiations
💵 DXY
📊 U.S. Treasury yields
₿ BTC support/resistance + volume
My take: Don't short BTC solely because of Hormuz. The stronger bearish confirmation would be oil rising alongside DXY and yields while BTC loses key support. If Hormuz tensions ease and oil falls, the same macro setup could quickly turn bullish.Hormuz Deal Unresolved: Oil and Crypto Stand at a Critical Crossroads
Hormuz remains unresolved. While negotiations between the U.S., Iran, and Oman have made progress, disagreements over shipping routes, transit fees, and passage conditions mean geopolitical risks have not disappeared.
Brent has climbed to around $84.95 per barrel, showing that markets are still pricing in a geopolitical risk premium linked to Hormuz.
This matters significantly for Crypto:
Hormuz tensions → Oil rises → Inflation expectations increase → Fed easing becomes harder → USD/yields rise → Risk-asset liquidity weakens → $BTC and Crypto face pressure.
Conversely, if Hormuz reopens sustainably, the geopolitical premium could decline, oil could cool, and monetary-policy expectations could improve — creating more room for $BTC and the broader Crypto market to recover.
Investors should therefore watch Hormuz, Brent, the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and $BTC price structure together.
The key takeaway: Hormuz remains unresolved, so the risk has not disappeared. A durable agreement could become a positive catalyst for risk assets, while a breakdown in negotiations could quickly trigger another wave of volatility.
If you find this information useful, follow me to stay updated and discuss the latest developments across the Crypto market and Wall Street.
#HormuzDealUnresolved
#StrategySellsBTCAgain
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
$BTC
$ETH H #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges "Speak only when you have something to say; don't force words when you don't." 🦉 Seeing news of large ETF inflows, my first impression is definitely not that the market is about to take off, but that institutional capital returning only indicates liquidity warming up, not that incremental funds will immediately enter to push prices higher.
Last week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of $865 million, ranking among the top inflows in nearly 15 weeks. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for nearly $700 million, supporting the vast majority of the inflows; ETH also performed impressively with a net inflow of $244 million, marking five consecutive weeks of net inflows. This clearly shows that the window for institutional capital entry is loosening again.
🐢 But we must cool down and review the market rationally; the deep correction in July is still vivid. Currently, the coin price continues to oscillate between $64,000 and $65,000, with overall market sentiment still wavering and cautious—half bullish, half suspicious. ETF capital inflows only prove that mainstream institutional funds dare to test the waters with small positions; spot market trading volume and retail investor sentiment have not warmed up in sync.
Macro liquidity remains the core helmsman determining the market ceiling. The Federal Reserve maintaining a wait-and-see monetary policy and weaker nonfarm payroll data lowering rate hike expectations give risk assets room to breathe and recover; once rate expectations shift, on-exchange funds fleeing can happen in an instant.
Ethereum's five consecutive weeks of institutional accumulation means institutions are re-evaluating Ethereum's long-term value, viewing it as the second core asset in the crypto sector. However, a rotation market led by Bitcoin and followed by Ethereum requires volume support; relying solely on daily ETF fund reports to drive sentiment is far from enough.
🦅 My personal view is straightforward: capital inflows are a positive signal but definitely not a call for a large-scale entry charge.
Priority should be given to observing whether ETFs can sustain continuous inflows, and secondly confirming that the spot market's absorption strength is genuinely strengthening. Before these two conditions are met, strictly control positions and don't let market hype mislead your trading rhythm.
Capital flows reveal market direction but cannot bear the risk of losses for traders. $BTC $ETH #AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 Strategy Sells BTC Again: What Signal Is the Whale Sending?
Strategy has sold Bitcoin again — and the market should look beyond the 1,690 BTC figure.
During August 3–9, Strategy sold 1,690 $BTC worth approximately $108.6 million, at an average price of $64,262 per BTC. The proceeds were used to repurchase approximately 1.15 million STRC preferred shares.
One week earlier, Strategy sold another 1,638 $BTC , generating approximately $104.7 million. In two weeks, the company sold more than 3,300 BTC, worth over $213 million.
Yet Strategy still holds approximately 840,447 $BTC , with a total cost basis of around $63.36 billion, or roughly $75,385 per BTC. Its U.S. dollar reserve has increased to approximately $4.65 billion.
This looks more like a liquidity strategy than abandoning Bitcoin.
Strategy is converting BTC into liquidity to strengthen its balance sheet and repurchase STRC, while also raising approximately $653.1 million through MSTR share sales.
But one signal cannot be ignored:
Strategy has gone several weeks without buying Bitcoin while continuing to sell BTC.
If this continues, the market will ask:
Is institutional demand taking a temporary pause, or are corporate Bitcoin strategies entering a new phase?
Selling 1,690 BTC remains small compared with its 840,447 BTC holdings. It does not prove Strategy has turned bearish.
The real signal is frequency.
Markets trade not only on supply, but on the belief that large buyers will absorb it.
When a major corporate Bitcoin holder shifts from “buy BTC” to “optimize liquidity,” sentiment adjusts.
Strategy has not turned its back on Bitcoin. But during volatility, liquidity can matter as much as conviction.
If $BTC remains under pressure while institutional demand fails to return, the risk could extend beyond a single sale.
But if Strategy stops selling and resumes accumulation, it could signal renewed institutional confidence in Bitcoin.
Watch what Strategy does next — not just what it did today.
$BTC #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges NVIDIA and Wall Street have jointly launched a 500 billion "computing power credit platform," completely upgrading the gameplay of the AI market.
Simply put: Wall Street provides the funds, companies use GPUs as collateral to take out loans to buy computing power, and NVIDIA guarantees 25%.
The signal is very clear:
1️⃣ Chip financial assetization: GPUs officially transform from "electronic consumables" into interest-bearing assets that generate cash flow.
2️⃣ Freeing up cash flow for major clients: Giants no longer need to occupy their balance sheets; CapEx becomes long-term leasing, and buying can't stop.
3️⃣ Shedding the "revolving financing" burden: Let independent financial institutions underwrite, isolating compliance risks.
Hardware sales ➡️ financial leverage ➡️ operational commissions, Jensen Huang has turned computing power into an infrastructure leasing business.
But be aware, after maxing out leverage, the entire industry is betting on whether downstream AI monetization can outpace debt interest. Do you believe in this model?
#NVIDIA #AI #英伟达 ＃美股 The market isn’t moving on one headline today. It’s a tug-of-war between institutional positioning, Ethereum’s next phase, tightening liquidity and a macro backdrop that could stay restrictive. Here’s what matters 👇 🟠 $BTC — Institutional selling meets structural demand $BTC is around $63.9K, down ~1.5%, while $ETH sits near $1.87K, down ~2.3%. Strategy sold 1,690 BTC for ~$108.6M between Aug. 3–9, taking its holdings to roughly 840,447 BTC. The proceeds are earmarked for its STRC repurchase pAI is entering a new phase: the market's focus has shifted from "whose model is stronger" to "who can turn computing power into sustained cash flow." 📈 The latest market news shows that NVIDIA is collaborating with several major financial institutions to promote AI computing infrastructure financing platforms, aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital. This means that AI computing power competition is no longer just a capital expenditure game for tech companies, but is gradually turning into a super infrastructure investment cycle involving technology + finance + energy + data centers. (GuruFocus) What's even more noteworthy is that Wall Street has begun to re-examine AI's massive capital expenditures: the real question is no longer "whether AI should keep burning money," but whether these investments can ultimately be converted into revenue, profit, and stable cash flow. This change is also happening in the crypto market. The era of sweeping rallies, once driven by concepts, sentiment, and liquidity, is fading, and the market is entering a true value screening cycle. The future will no longer be about whose story is the sexiest, but who can sustainably attract capital, have real users, and form a commercial closed loop, and who will achieve higher valuation premiums. 🔥 AI is reshaping global capital flows: In the past, capital was mainly allocated around GPUs, servers, cloud computing, and large models. Now, capital is starting to seek opportunities along the entire industry chain: ✅ AI chips and HBM
✅ Data centers and cloud computing
✅ Power and energy infrastructure
✅ Networking and optical modules
✅ AI models and AgenTEXAS IS AUDITING DATA CENTERS — COULD THIS BECOME A HIDDEN CATALYST FOR $BTC ?
Hundreds of large projects are competing for access to the Texas power grid.
AI, data centers, and Bitcoin mining all depend on electricity — but grid capacity is limited.
Texas is now auditing data-center applications for ERCOT connections. The scale is massive: about 474 GW of large-load requests, with roughly 90% tied to data centers — over 5x Texas’ peak demand.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin trades in a tight range:
$BTC: ~63,940 USDT24H High: 65,368 | Low: 63,818Volume: ~3.28K BTC (~211M USDT)
On the short-term chart, BTC sits near 63,940, below key moving averages around 63,970–64,051, showing weak momentum.
But the bigger story is off-chart.
If new data centers face delays, existing sites with secured land, substations, and power access become far more valuable.
Some Bitcoin miners already control this infrastructure.
Bernstein notes that limited new power capacity could boost the value of existing mining and AI-ready sites, giving them a structural advantage.
This shifts the narrative:
Bitcoin mining sites may evolve into AI infrastructure hubs.
And the key asset becomes not hardware — but electricity access.
This doesn’t directly push $BTC higher from ~$63,940. The audit doesn’t change Bitcoin demand or ETF flows.
Near-term impact is more likely on mining equities and infrastructure valuations.
But the longer-term trend matters.
As AI demand surges, electricity becomes scarce, and some miners may redirect capacity from Bitcoin to AI/HPC workloads.
So the real chain may be:
AI boom → power scarcity → tighter grid access → rising value of existing energy infrastructure → miners become strategic power holders.
BTC remains around $64,000, but the deeper competition is already forming — not for coins, but for megawatts.
In the AI era, the most valuable resource may not be compute.
It may be electricity.
$BTC
#DailyOrbit
#OKXOrbitTopics #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges I don't think I am alone when I say that many people are waiting to load up with spot positions at the moment. Historically, $BTC should bottom around October this year, and this time around it feels like everyone is trying to time the market.
Recently we've had a lot of news about Saylor selling, but even that won't move the price downwards anymore. Also, the Clarity Act doesn't seem very likely to be approved this year, so we still have to wait for that one. The Clarity Act should be bullish for big assets like BTC and ETH, and should help with momentum (all boats will be lifted by the tide).
August and September are historically the worst months for $BTC, and if we get a bigger flush, then this dip is probably worth buying for good alts (I have my list in the pinned, but HYPE, LIT, ZEC, PUMP++ are some of them).
Almost all altcoins trend down long-term, your job during the next months is to try to allocate into the ones that hopefully don't.
$BTC
#AIInfraEarningsWatch
#AIInfraFundingDiverges 🚨 CRYPTO LIQUIDITY CHECK — Aug 11, 2026 🚨
Volumes are drying up FAST. Daily spot trading is down ~70% from January's highs, sitting near $15-20B/day. Just 6 exchanges now control 60%+ of all spot activity. Liquidity isn't spreading — it's consolidating.
📉 THE DAMAGE (24H)
$BTC → $63,911 (-1.44%)
$ETH → $1,871 (-1.96%)
$XRP → $1.0115 (-1.69%)
$SOL → $75.95 (-0.35%) 🛡️ holding the line
Why? Not crypto-native. Iran just signaled the Strait of Hormuz stays shut longer than hoped. Oil spiked, risk-off hit everything from equities to Bitcoin in lockstep.
💵 STABLECOINS = THE REAL TELL
Total stablecoin cap: ~$287-290B (down ~5%)
$USDT still king: ~58% share, ~$185B
$USDC: ~$78B
TRON's USDT supply just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of $87.9B, moving $2.1 TRILLION last quarter alone. It's not hype — it's the dollar rail for entire economies now.
🔮 WHAT TO WATCH
→ Oil above $85/barrel for a week = prolonged risk-off
→ CLARITY Act vote (delayed past Senate recess)
→ Brazil's Oct licensing deadline ($319B market)
This isn't a crypto breakdown — it's a liquidity squeeze wearing a geopolitical mask. 🌊
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Liquidity #Altcoins
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets Spot gold surged strongly, breaking through $4400, reaching an intraday high of $4435, a two-month peak. Supported by geopolitical uncertainties, safe-haven funds continue to flow into hard currency assets like gold.
Currently, the US CPI has not been released yet, but the market has already priced in the Federal Reserve's policy expectations in advance. Previously, weaker non-farm payroll data led the market to lower rate hike bets, causing US Treasury yields and the dollar to weaken simultaneously, directly benefiting precious metals.
CPI is the core watershed for the upcoming market trend: if inflation data cools down, expectations for rate cuts will further ferment, putting pressure on the dollar and interest rates, allowing gold to continue its upward trend. Liquidity-sensitive crypto assets like BTC and ETH will also see capital inflows; conversely, if CPI unexpectedly strengthens, hawkish market sentiment will rebound, causing sharp short-term volatility across major assets.
This round of macro market trends has just started, with gold leading the trend. Once CPI releases dovish signals, capital will widely diffuse into various risk assets.
Risk warning: Sharing market ideas only, not constituting operational advice, no misleading guidance, comply with community conventions. $BTC $ETH $XAU #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ The 30-year US Treasury yield has risen to a terrifying 5.25%, basically reaching the interest rate level on the eve of the 2007 financial crisis!
And the US national debt has officially surpassed $40 trillion for the first time in history! It took only 150 days to go from $39 trillion to $40 trillion.
At the current 3.75% interest rate, the US annual debt interest payment amounts to $1.5 trillion. This means that for every $5 collected in taxes, $1 is directly used to pay interest.
The current situation is absurd:
It's neither rate hikes, nor rate cuts, nor balance sheet reduction, nor balance sheet expansion—every path has deadly side effects.
If the US cannot quickly resolve the US-Iran conflict and calm oil prices and inflation, it will ultimately have to rely on classic money printing, because the surge in long-term bond yields will seriously threaten US stock valuations.
The only solution might be to crazily tax the world globally!On August 11, the total crypto market cap was about $2.2 trillion, with BTC dominance hovering around 58.9%, and ETH's share dropping to only 10.2%—this figure is half of ETH's 18% peak during the 2021 DeFi Summer. Many people's first reaction is that ETH is failing, but the truth is more complex: it's not that ETH is falling, but the market is repricing.
BTC dominance has climbed from 52% in Q1 2025 to about 59% now. The core driver is not a BTC surge, but capital seeking safety. Global geopolitical conflicts, tariff disputes, and Fed policy swings have driven institutional funds into BTC ETFs as a "digital gold" safe haven. Spot BTC ETFs have accumulated over $56 billion in inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for over $54 billion. This structural buying has directly supported BTC dominance above 50%—the longest stretch since 2017. More importantly, if you exclude the over $300 billion in stablecoins from the total market cap, BTC's control over real risk capital is actually close to 64%, meaning the market is more "BTC-ified" than it appears on the surface.
ETH's share shrinking to 10% is not because it is falling—it is falling, but more sharply than BTC. Since the October 2025 peak, BTC has dropped from $126,200 to $59,000, a 53% decline; ETH fell 67% in the same period. The ETH/BTC exchange rate crashed from 0.088 in December 2021 to 0.030, depreciating 65% relative to BTC over four years.
Four structural issues are simultaneously squeezing ETH. L2s cannibalizing the mainnet: Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, and others have taken most of the transaction volume but return minimal fees to the mainnet. Base earned $94 million in profit but paid only $4.9 million in blob fees to the mainnet. The mainnet fees, which once earned $30 million daily, now only bring in about $500,000, turning ETH from deflationary back to mildly inflationary. Solana encroaching: In Q1 2026, Ethereum's on-chain revenue fell to fourth place, behind Solana, Tron, and BNB Chain. Solana's 400ms confirmation vs. ETH's 12-second blocks means meme coins and high-frequency DeFi have all migrated to Solana. Institutional funds favor BTC 7:1: BTC ETFs total about $128 billion, while ETH ETFs are only around $18 billion. Big money buys crypto by buying BTC first; ETH is the "if there's budget left" option. The Glamsterdam upgrade keeps getting delayed: originally scheduled for H1 2026 with parallel transaction processing and a 78% gas fee reduction, it may now be pushed to Q3 or even Q4. Each delay gives competitors more time.
But ETH has a history of comeback. In September 2019, ETH dominance also dropped near 10%, then in the following 18 months, ETH rose 4x against BTC, doubling its share to 20%. The catalyst then was the DeFi explosion. Now, there are three potential catalysts: successful launch of Glamsterdam, Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, and approval of ETH ETFs with staking yields. The ETH/BTC range of 0.028-0.030 is a historically critical support; holding and rebounding here could bring ETH dominance back to 12-13%. Falling below 0.028, the next support is at 0.020, corresponding to ETH dominance possibly dropping to 7-8%, giving Solana a real chance to challenge for second place.
The current market is not a simple binary of "$BTC good, $ETH bad." Under macro uncertainty, capital chooses the hardest, most self-explanatory asset. BTC's narrative is "digital gold," simple, easy to understand, and institutionally accepted. ETH's narrative is "world computer," but L2 fragmentation, rising competing chains, and upgrade delays make this narrative increasingly costly to explain.
BTC dominance approaching 60% is not the end but a signal: within risk assets, the market is making the most conservative choice. For ETH to turn around, it won't be because BTC falls, but because a new narrative breakout emerges—like the DeFi Summer of 2020—that makes capital willing to take on "smart contract platform" risk again. Otherwise, "BTC-ification" will continue until a macro liquidity inflection or a truly killer app emerges in the ETH ecosystem.The Nasdaq futures rose slightly pre-market, but the market is not bullish; everyone is waiting for a reversal signal from bond data. The real verification variable is the credit strength of U.S. Treasury bonds, not short-term fluctuations.
1) Price and capital
2) This round of hotspots
Intel Foundry's expansion represents real revenue growth, but the widening losses reflect pressure on the cost structure. U.S. Treasuries have underperformed Japan, and the Bessent score has declined, indicating rising market concerns about U.S. fiscal credit. FalconX deposited 300 BTC into Coinbase, worth about $19.18 million, showing that institutions are strengthening liquidity allocation to mainstream exchanges, but this has not changed the overall risk appetite.
3) How I interpret it
The bulls' logic is: tech companies' capacity expansion drives medium- to long-term demand, and weakening bond credit may reflect market expectations for asset repricing. The bears focus on: the mismatch between widening losses and revenue growth, which may signal declining industry marginal efficiency, combined with weakening Treasury credit, potentially suppressing overall risk appetite.
4) What to watch next
Attention should be paid to the U.S. Treasury's bond issuance pace; large-scale issuance could exacerbate liquidity tightening. If Intel's earnings later disclose cost structure details, it may provide clearer signals of an industry inflection point. Changes in liquidity allocation for crypto assets still need observation, but no clear market shift has formed yet.
For informational and market scenario analysis only; not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks. Last week, the data for the Bitcoin spot ETF was very good
with a net inflow of about $850 million
setting the largest single-week inflow in recent months
The problem is that the bullish force in the spot market is offset by the bearish force in the futures market, so there is almost no upward pressure on the price.
Additionally, although the ETF is buying, other entities are selling at the same time:
1. Long-term on-chain whales are reducing positions at highs
2. Miners are continuously selling unlocked outputs
3. Previously trapped spot holders are exiting at rebound levels
This is essentially a disguised chip turnover. To change the trend, the main factor to watch is whether spot trading volume expands. If there is another short-term rebound, continue to short at the highs, sending Bitcoin back to the 5-figure range!Don't let the upcoming CPI data release on Wednesday disrupt your spot market strategy. Look at the historic inflow of over $130 billion into tech funds this year. No matter how inflation data fluctuates, the political reluctance to raise interest rates is currently the biggest moat protecting the market.
So far this year, global tech funds have attracted over $131 billion, exceeding last year's record by $50 billion. This indicates an unprecedented strong buying interest in tech assets. As long as you understand these capital flows and the underlying connections, it's actually very difficult to lose money in this market. Short-term data fluctuations simply cannot break through this scale of capital foundation.
Although there has been a recent pullback in the semiconductor and storage sectors, the overall trend of the Nasdaq and S&P remains robust. I see this major rally continuing through 2028. The underlying logic is that during Trump's term, the core goal was to maintain market prosperity. This top-level will translates into actions that suppress rate hikes, forming an extremely solid closed loop of interests.
At this stage, there is absolutely no need to be anxious. As long as you hold onto your spot positions, even if temporarily trapped, the opportunity for profit over a longer cycle remains very high. Focus less on short-term fluctuations and more on understanding the macro picture, and your overall winning rate will naturally experience a qualitative leap.
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Alright, I'm Pharaoh—not the Egyptian one, but the one who gets stars in his eyes from reading earnings reports.
At this point in earnings season, I've finally realized—AI's big show isn't over, but the script has changed: it used to be "I have a dream," now it's "Bro, let's get the numbers straight."
This week's earnings reports are the ironclad proof.
Let's start with the heavy hitters, the kind that hit hard.
Insight Enterprises posted $2.4 billion in Q2 revenue, beating expectations by 10.5%, with earnings per share at $3.86, surpassing estimates by 31.8%. Management didn't sugarcoat it—they laid it out: AI hardware sales exploded, hardware revenue grew over 20% year-over-year, and cloud business gross margin soared 39%. Customers aren't just watching—they're scrambling to grab AI servers, storage, and networking gear, afraid to fall behind competitors.
Cloudflare's revenue rose 36%, with AI proxy traffic surpassing 50% for the first time, and major client growth hitting 27%, a record high. The CEO said it straight: the internet is being completely restructured by "machine-to-machine" traffic. Simply put, half of online chats in the future might not be human.
Then, the biggest bombshell—NVIDIA.
Jensen Huang teamed up with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and KKR—six Wall Street giants aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital to help clients borrow money to buy GPUs and build data centers. Jensen himself dropped a golden line: "For the first time, tech chips have become an investable asset class." In plain English: GPUs are no longer consumables that depreciate after purchase; they're like commercial real estate—mortgageable, loanable, and capable of generating income.
But don't get too excited; the naysayers are here.
Moody's sounded the alarm: tech giants are burning cash so fast their free cash flow is nearly drained. The Bank for International Settlements is also murmuring: is this cycle of "borrow to build, build to lease, lease to repay" really stable?
So my conclusion is simple: AI isn't dead, it's just shifted from a pie-in-the-sky contest to a numbers game.
Don't talk to me about "disrupting humanity" anymore; first tell me the ROI, payback period, and whether the cash flow is positive.
After watching deals for so many years, my biggest takeaway is this: good deals are waited for, not chased.
The busier the market, the steadier you have to be. This market isn't about who tells the best story; it's about who can do the math right.
Alright, I'm off to keep watching the market. You do what you gotta do, don't get carried away.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't lose its way! $BTC $ETH $GRVT #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 Market performance: Short-term rapid sell-off, spot ETFs are prone to capital outflows, do not blindly bottom-fish. Even if there is a subsequent recovery, short-term liquidity expectations will be suppressed.
Scenario 2: CPI fully meets market expectations (baseline scenario)
Data is neither hawkish nor dovish, confirming the pricing of no rate change in September. The market will not experience large fluctuations, and the previous range-bound pattern will continue.
Event shocks are quickly digested, funds return to AI earnings reports and geopolitical news, Bitcoin continues to oscillate within the original range, making it difficult to break out into a strong trending market.
Scenario 3: CPI below expectations, core inflation significantly cools (dovish outcome)
Inflationary pressure further eases, September rate hike expectations are completely eliminated, and the market will preemptively price in a future rate cut narrative. U.S. Treasury yields decline, the dollar weakens, and risk assets experience a pulse-like rebound.
Bitcoin will use the news stimulus to test the upper boundary of the range. But it should be noted that a single CPI cooling does not mean an immediate start to rate cuts; the positive effect is more of a pulse rally, not to be mistaken for the start of a major bull market. The crypto market is shifting to a new valuation system: stories still matter, but capital is starting to demand "realization."
Currently, the total stablecoin supply is about $300.2 billion, with almost zero growth in the past 7 days; DeFi TVL is about $75.2 billion. This means incremental liquidity has not fully returned; it currently looks more like existing funds are reallocating assets rather than a new round of "blindly buying altcoins."
What is truly being revalued are directions supported by data:
BTC carries institutional liquidity and core reserve attributes;
ETH supports the largest on-chain financial system;
SOL currently has about $1.4 billion daily DEX volume and approximately 2.03 million active addresses, showing real usage still exists;
RWA on-chain asset scale has reached $38.1 billion, with tokenized U.S. Treasuries about $16.2 billion;
AAVE TVL is about $14.7 billion, indicating DeFi is regaining real capital.
AI, MEME, and small-cap coins will of course still surge, but the future market will be increasingly ruthless:
Having a narrative only gains attention, having users gains liquidity, and having revenue and value capture gains long-term premium.
The next true bull market may not be all coins rising together.
Instead, capital will start concentrating on buying those protocols that are truly "alive." $BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Crypto community, this Wednesday's July CPI is the most important card in the current financial market. After last week's weak nonfarm payroll data, the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September has fallen to about 44%, with bulls and bears basically split evenly. This inflation report will very likely directly rewrite the market pricing for the September FOMC meeting.
Here is a key point: The Fed truly anchors on the core PCE, but CPI is released earlier and triggers the most intense market reactions. Traders use CPI for initial speculation, especially the month-over-month core CPI, which is the real focus for traders—don't just look at the headline year-over-year numbers. Oil prices have been rising recently, which will disturb the overall CPI, so the market pays more attention to the core components excluding energy and food, watching if service sector inflation is rising again.
Current market situation: Nonfarm payrolls are weakening, employment is cooling down, but inflation hasn't been fully subdued yet. Fed officials have already indicated that if inflation rebounds, the option to hike rates in September remains; if inflation continues to fall, they will maintain a wait-and-see stance. So, it's not a single data point that decides fate, but it is enough to significantly change interest rate futures pricing.
Breaking down three scenarios to clarify how U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and Bitcoin will move.
Scenario 1: CPI exceeds expectations, month-over-month core CPI strengthens#
Inflation stickiness exceeds market expectations, the probability of a September rate hike will jump directly, U.S. Treasury yields will surge, and the U.S. dollar will strengthen.
U.S. tech stocks will come under pressure, and Bitcoin, as a high-beta risk asset, will face a round of selling pressure. Gold is once again becoming the focus of global capital. As of August 11, spot gold once touched $4,434.84 per ounce, the highest since June 5; Gold prices have risen more than 7% over the past week. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting US CPI, PPI, and other data to determine the Fed's next policy path. (Reuters) On the surface, this round of gold rally appears to be a rise in interest rate cut expectations, but what truly drives funds back into gold is not just one factor. 🔥 Gold is experiencing a "triple drive." In the past, when gold prices rose, the market often thought first: Fed rate cuts → weaker dollars → gold rose. But now, the logic behind gold has become noticeably more complex. ✅ First: Expectations of Rate Cuts Recent U.S. employment data has weakened significantly, raising market expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy. Lower interest rates mean lower opportunity costs of holding gold, while pressure on the US dollar also benefits gold prices. So: rate cut expectations = an important short-term catalyst for gold. Currently, the market is waiting for new inflation data to confirm this logic. (Reuters) ✅ Second Layer: Global Central Banks Continue to Buy Gold. This may be the most important variable to watch in the long-term gold market. In July, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 640,000 ounces, marking a three-year high for a single month and marking 21 consecutive months of increases. (Sina Finance) This means: the central bank is buying gold not just for a few days of short-term trading. It is more like a long-term asset allocation. As global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, goldGuys, let me briefly explain why I entered a long position on crude oil at 75.25.
At that time, bearish voices were everywhere, talking about recession expectations and demand collapse, it was so loud it gave me ear ringing. But I checked the data and found it’s not that simple—the U.S. Department of Energy clearly announced a strategic reserve buyback around $75, which is a solid floor; if prices fall, someone will step in. Then I looked at the EIA inventory, which has declined more than expected for four consecutive weeks. The August travel peak season is no joke, and gasoline demand is right there.
Also, on the OPEC+ side, there’s been no hint of easing production cuts; Saudi Arabia and Russia’s extra voluntary cuts have been extended to September. The supply side is tightly controlled, yet prices have been smashed below 75 due to sentiment—I think the market is overreacting. Moreover, the dollar has recently weakened, geopolitical tensions haven’t eased, and the premium for the Strait of Hormuz has even increased. These risk premiums are not reflected at all in the $75 price.
In short, 75.25 is a value zone where multiple fundamental factors resonate. I can’t buy into the bears’ story; I choose to stand on the side of reality. Currently, I’m up over 500 points, but the logic isn’t finished yet—let time prove it.
#WTI crude oil #My trading logic Spot ETF capital inflow is good news for BTC and ETH, but don’t interpret it as an automatic relay.
The biggest value of ETFs is not short-term price pumping, but integrating crypto assets into traditional capital channels. The return of funds indicates that institutional risk appetite is recovering and also shows that the market is willing to bet in advance on improved liquidity conditions before the CPI. The problem is, the logic behind the money flowing into BTC and ETH is not exactly the same.
BTC behaves more like a macro asset, driven by safe-haven demand, the dollar, long-term bonds, and liquidity expectations; ETH behaves more like an on-chain economic asset, driven by ETF funds, staking yields, L2 usage, and institutional preference for "yield-generating" assets.
Therefore, I care more about the capital structure rather than the single-day inflow numbers. If money only flows into BlackRock’s low-fee products, it means institutions are more selective; only if both BTC and ETH can continuously attract funds can we say risk appetite has truly returned.
Short-term rebounds rely on sentiment, sustained relay depends on uninterrupted capital.The current crypto market is not short of coins that rise, but lacks funds that can sustain the rise.
At present, the total market capitalization is about $2.29 trillion, with BTC's market share still around 56.6%, ETH only about 10.2%; more importantly, the total stablecoin supply is about $300.2 billion, with almost zero growth in the past 7 days (-0.04%).
This data indicates: there is no obvious expansion of off-exchange liquidity; it is still a battle for existing liquidity.
Therefore, BTC's role is to stabilize the risk anchor; if ETH starts to consistently outperform BTC, it means funds have the opportunity to further spread to high Beta assets.
Within altcoins, there is already a clear stratification:
L1 looks at whether on-chain liquidity of chains like SUI, AVAX continues to improve;
RWA/DeFi focuses on real TVL and revenue of projects like ONDO, AAVE, PENDLE;
AI and MEME must wait for volume and sector breadth to resonate again.
My current judgment of the main line looks at only three signals:
Stablecoin inflows, continuous volume expansion, and sustained support on pullbacks.
A one-day surge is called sentiment; continuous volume expansion is called a trend.
Rotation itself is not an opportunity; chasing rotation early is a risk. What is truly worth betting on is where funds come and do not want to leave. $BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #AIInfraEarningsWatch AI infrastructure earnings are taking center stage after SpaceX survived its first major lockup expiration without the feared selloff. Although another portion of locked SpaceX shares may become eligible for sale on August 20, attention is now shifting toward companies that supply the physical foundation of AI. Lumentum and CoreWeave report after the August 11 close, followed by Coherent on August 12 and Applied Materials on August 13. Cisco’s results will also provide insight into AI-related networking demand.
These reports will test whether enormous AI spending commitments are translating into orders, revenue and sustainable margins. Strong sales alone may not satisfy investors if capital expenditure, financing costs or customer concentration continue rising. Optical-component companies should reveal whether demand for high-speed data-center connections remains strong, while CoreWeave will be judged on backlog conversion and profitability. My view is that the AI infrastructure story remains powerful, but valuations increasingly require measurable cash returns—not merely announcements about future capacity.#BTC LTH holdings continue to show a downward trend
In recent months, LTH supply inflows have recorded strong surges multiple times, but in reality, BTC's LTH holdings (balance) have continued to decline.
This means the amount of BTC entering the Long-Term Holder (LTH) group is still insufficient to offset the amount flowing out of this group. This suggests some long-term investors are continuously realizing profits or diversifying their holdings into the market.
In other words, accumulation is still ongoing but has not yet been enough to reverse the overall decline in BTC held by long-term holders.
A reversal in LTH holdings often carries more significance than a surge in short-term LTH supply inflows, making this indicator a major signal to watch for in the future.
✏️ Summary in one line
Despite strong LTH supply inflows over several months, BTC LTH holdings continue to decline, with ongoing profit-taking by some long-term holders offsetting accumulation; a substantive reversal in LTH holdings will be a key indicator of a market trend shift. The real war for stablecoins might not be on exchanges, but on mobile home screens.
Samsung is upgrading Samsung Wallet from a payment tool to a digital asset gateway, with clear plans to add native stablecoin support. Wallet currently covers 61 countries, with nearly 19 million users in South Korea alone; more importantly, Galaxy has the capability to distribute to hundreds of millions of devices.
What this truly changes is not "just another wallet," but the biggest adoption challenge for stablecoins—the entry cost.
Currently, the global stablecoin market size is about $300.2 billion; Circle recently disclosed that USDC circulation has reached $73.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and on-chain transaction volume has grown 151% year-on-year.
Samsung has also made early moves: its subsidiaries Samsung Securities, SDS, and Samsung Card have invested about $408 million to acquire a combined 4% stake in Dunamu, the parent company of Upbit; Galaxy Card has already built traditional payment gateways with Visa and Barclays. $BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
The real trend worth betting on is:
BTC solves value storage, stablecoins solve value circulation, and mobile manufacturers are competing for the next generation of financial gateways.
Once Samsung succeeds, the next competition might be the gateway war among Apple, Google, and payment giants.Hormuz Deal Unresolved: Oil and Crypto Stand at a Critical Crossroads
Hormuz remains unresolved. While negotiations between the U.S., Iran, and Oman have made progress, disagreements over shipping routes, transit fees, and passage conditions mean geopolitical risks have not disappeared.
Brent has climbed to around $84.95 per barrel, showing that markets are still pricing in a geopolitical risk premium linked to Hormuz.
This matters significantly for Crypto:
Hormuz tensions → Oil rises → Inflation expectations increase → Fed easing becomes harder → USD/yields rise → Risk-asset liquidity weakens → $BTC and Crypto face pressure.
Conversely, if Hormuz reopens sustainably, the geopolitical premium could decline, oil could cool, and monetary-policy expectations could improve — creating more room for $BTC and the broader Crypto market to recover.
Investors should therefore watch Hormuz, Brent, the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and $BTC price structure together.
The key takeaway: Hormuz remains unresolved, so the risk has not disappeared. A durable agreement could become a positive catalyst for risk assets, while a breakdown in negotiations could quickly trigger another wave of volatility.
If you find this information useful, follow me to stay updated and discuss the latest developments across the Crypto market and Wall Street.
#HormuzDealUnresolved
#StrategySellsBTCAgain
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
$BTC
$ETH The market is no longer moving in sync, and that's where the opportunity lies. 👀
Many traders are still waiting for BTC to break out and pull the entire market up. But honestly, I don't see that scenario right now. What I see is capital quietly rotating between sectors and tokens, while the weaker coins are gradually being left behind.
BTC is doing its job well: maintaining supportGoogle $GOOGL latest quarterly holdings show a massive purchase of over $90 billion in $SPCX? Actually, it's a long-term investment where $900 million from back then has grown to over $94 billion.
Many mistakenly think this is a giant buying at a high price, but the truth is this is the first public disclosure of an early equity stake held for 11 years.
Google's investment logic is very clear; it is not about trading for short-term gains but willing to bet on foundational infrastructure that could become important in the next 10 years. Whether it's AI, autonomous driving, life sciences, or satellite communication networks, all follow this strategic thinking.
When Google invested $900 million in 2015, Starlink hadn't even officially commercialized. More than 10 years later, SPCX has completely integrated rockets, Starlink, AI, communication networks, and even future orbital data centers into an unbreakable infrastructure system.
Big companies investing in each other to grow the ecosystem, stepping on each other's feet to profit together, is exactly like Tencent's business model.
Seeing through this holding makes me even more confident in my long-term judgment of SPCX. In the short term, the stock price will inevitably be affected by valuation, earnings reports, capital expenditures, and lock-up periods. I remain bearish when it's time to be cautious. But over the long term, I am firmly optimistic.
The real big opportunity is not about frequently switching among 100 holdings every day to try your luck, but having absolute conviction to accompany a hardcore company for 10 years after thoroughly understanding it.
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 On the eve of the earnings release, $LITE experienced a sharp single-day pullback under the dual pressure of high P/E ratio and premium options, with densely clustered profit-taking and break-even positions rapidly realized at key resistance levels.
After a short-term surge, the stock price quickly dipped, and intraday volatility expanded while the options market priced in an implied volatility space as high as 13%.
The substantial gains accumulated earlier exhausted marginal buying power, and bullish funds proactively reduced positions to hedge before the event, significantly tightening overall market risk appetite.
The overlap of elevated valuation centers and risk-off selling pressure shifted short-term market sentiment from chasing the long-term demand for AI optical modules to a highly stringent scrutiny of this quarter's earnings guidance details.
If Q4 revenue surpasses $988 million and the compute demand guidance again exceeds expectations, the stock price will quickly recover the single-day loss and break through the options volatility ceiling, forcing out low-position shorts and initiating valuation repair; otherwise, if the momentum is insufficient, the rebound trend will quickly fail.
If revenue barely meets targets or free cash flow is eroded by expansion costs, the stock price falling below the options implied negative 13 percentage point boundary will trigger active stop-loss and consecutive liquidations by heavily invested bulls; once the stock price swiftly recovers this boundary, the downward logic pauses.
If cash flow data from the supply chain upstream and downstream significantly diverges from upstream compute orders, the industry transmission logic breaks down, and the strength of a single earnings report will not support the valuation anchoring of the entire sector.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether the volatility range priced by the options market after the earnings release can be directionally realized in the stock price.
#三星钱包将接入稳定币，支付场景继续扩展 #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化