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An easily overlooked detail: In this short squeeze, Coinbase is still slightly discounted compared to Binance. To translate — the main force pushing the price up seems more like shorts covering on the futures side, rather than real money aggressively buying through the US spot ETF channel. If it were the latter driving it, you would usually see Coinbase's premium turn positive and stay positive. Since that's not happening, it raises questions about the "quality of the buying." This is exactly how cross-exchange price differences are used: they help you identify who is really buying during a bullish candle. With $BTC surging this high, do you trust its authenticity?Wow, the Dow was slammed by Walmart for over 700 points last night, while Nvidia only dropped 0.33%, closing at $216.85, the most resilient on the floor. After touching 225 on August 13, it fell for three consecutive days, but the decline narrowed each day (-2.34% → -0.99% → -0.33%), indicating selling pressure is exhausting.
Everyone is now waiting for the end-of-month earnings reports, with the market focused on one thing: how strong the guidance is. Just looking at Walmart, you can tell that beating revenue expectations doesn’t help if growth and guidance are weak—it still gets slammed. News flow hasn’t stopped; Jensen Huang’s daughter appeared at the Beijing Robotics Conference, physical AI is being laid out, and Google has also confirmed the next-generation liquid cooling solution.
From a technical perspective, 215.7-216.2 is the short-term support; breaking below that points to 209-212. If it climbs back to 222-225 before earnings, it means someone is running ahead, and the actual report might easily disappoint.
My take: if volume shrinks and it trades sideways before earnings, don’t mess around. Betting heavily on a one-sided move is just throwing money away. Wait for earnings to provide direction. This is not investment advice.
#沃尔玛在美销售放缓，消费压力受关注 🚨BTC returns to $70,000, multiple forces resonate to drive this rebound
▪️Trump meets with crypto executives at the White House, urging Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, accelerating the implementation of the US crypto regulatory framework
▪️US Treasury repo expansion, yields fall, market liquidity expectations improve
▪️Key level break triggers short squeeze, ETF funds flow back, multiple factors jointly boost the market
⚠️70,000 is not a blind buy signal; the focus is on whether it can hold and turn resistance into support
Holding above 70,000 is the foundation for the continuation of the rally; failure to hold may just be a bull trap.
Watch volume and capital flow closely going forward: breaking through is easy, holding is key.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX
$BTC $ETH $SOL This is an absolutely manipulated market
Macro liquidity remains tight
Fundamentals have not improved
Besenet's US z repo is just a drop in the bucket
It has not effectively lowered long-term US z yields
The most important and practical narrative is still AI
Bingtang Orange remains a junk stock that has lost its narrative halo
This is still mid-bear market
The violent surge has only one purpose
Which is to squeeze shorts and liquidate short positions
Fabricated event-driven stories ultimately amount to nothing
This creates an excellent opportunity for our short selling Zooming out to look at this wave of risk assets. The long-term government bond yields of major global economies are collectively surging to multi-decade highs, with US, Japanese, and Korean bonds all rising together, compounded by Middle East tensions pushing oil prices up — this combination is called "fiscal expansion + sticky inflation." In this context, gold and $BTC are both bought as hedges against devaluation, with the same logic: it's not about risk aversion, but about avoiding currency dilution. However, note that rising oil prices will ultimately feed into the narrative of "reflation → higher interest rates," which is a double-edged sword for high-valuation assets. The macro tailwind can give a boost, but don't treat it as an unconditional positive.The BTC market direction remains valid, but the current price range is both an energy accumulation zone for an upward move and the first test zone for the uptrend. Under what conditions will the Bitcoin-led upward momentum be invalidated, and the capital flow into altcoins halted? The current price levels of BTC and ETH already reflect a significant portion of the general expectations of market participants. In other words, the anticipation of institutional demand through spot ETFs and the stability of the macro environment are already priced in. On the other hand, variables not yet reflected in the price include the concentration of leverage positions in the derivatives market and the unexpected direction of macro indicators. Notably, the fact that funding rates in the derivatives market have not overheated signals that the current rally is closer to being spot-driven rather than a short squeeze. The key observation in this structure is whether the price increase is driven by spot or derivatives. If BTC rises gradually without a significant increase in trading volume, it is likely the result of spot buying, indicating a higher possibility of trend continuation. Conversely, if the volume is 🔥U.S. stocks didn't take off, but BTC surged to 74,000 on its own: This rally is unlike any you've seen before
$BTC
Many are still waiting for the old script of "U.S. stocks lifting BTC," but on August 20–21, BTC left U.S. stocks behind—the Nasdaq was still falling during the same period, while BTC jumped from 64,000 to 74,600 in two days, liquidating about 3 billion in shorts within 24 hours.
The real ignition behind this isn't retail FOMO, but the resonance of these three factors simultaneously:
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases (single round cap raised from 2 billion to over 4 billion), which the market interpreted as "quasi-easing," causing long-term U.S. Treasury yields to reverse, the dollar index to suffer its largest single-day drop in three weeks, and gold to break 4,500 on the same day—this time BTC is following the "dollar credit dilution" trend, not AI stocks;
On August 19, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $517 million in one day, the strongest since May 4, with BlackRock's IBIT alone taking in $285 million; from August 17–19, the three-day cumulative net buy was about $1 billion;
13F filings show JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and UBS increased their IBIT holdings against the trend in Q2, and even the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund didn't sell a single share—institutions haven't returned, they never left, just waiting to pick up chips below 70,000.
🚨 Previously, BTC rallies relied on "halving stories + retail leverage"; now this round is driven by dollar weakness + long-term bond repurchases + the opening of compliant ETF channels, with Wall Street treating BTC as "Digital Gold 2.0" to add to their portfolios. Let's talk about signals from the options side. During this rally, the implied volatility of $BTC hasn't surged along with the price; DVOL remains suppressed at a low level, indicating that the options market isn't pricing this upward move as a directional breakout but more like a short-term spike. Looking at the max pain points near several upcoming expirations, most fall a few thousand dollars below the current price — theoretically exerting a magnetic pull to drag the price down. Of course, MaxPain isn't a prophecy, just a hint of where the concentration of positions lies. The further the price moves away from the pain point, the stronger the pullback force you can reasonably expect. Let's talk positions. Do you trust the breakout or the pullback more? Let me first summarize some common mistakes: 1. Historically, bear markets always bottom out in December, so this year will be the same, so buy the bottom again in December. 2. Historically, bull markets have always started with skepticism, pessimism, and widespread bearishness. This rally, many people were optimistic, so it's a fake bull market. 3. Historically, Bitcoin always rises first, followed by altcoins. This time, altcoins started first, so it's a fake bull market. 4. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have dropped by more than 70%, but this time it only dropped about 50%, so there's still a lot of room to fall, so you can only buy at 40,000. See that? Everything is summarized based on surface results as surface "experience," essentially carving the boat. They don't consider the underlying logic. The result is missing out. The higher the price, the more bearish the bears, and the more shorts there are, the more fuel for a bull market rally. We should understand and master these for life. 1. Liquidity determines the length of a bear market: In the past bear year, the year was due to aggressive interest rate controls, continuous rate hikes and balance sheet reductions. Policies took one step at a time, dragging on too long, leading to sharp declines and long bear markets. 2. On the basis of selling pressure being cleared, what determines the bull market is continuous buying. Unrelated to sentiment, optimism can also start a bull market. 3. Liquidity = Chip structure x narrative fuel x competitor odds. When a market peaks in a bull market, buying is exhausted and chips are fragile. Rate cuts don't necessarily drive prices higher, because funds won't foolishly buy into assets at the top of the price, leading to sharp drops in bear markets. So funds go to AI fields with higher odds, where liquidity won't break and go where the cost-performance ratio is high. Look, so many people are playing AI this yearBitcoin’s four-year cycle has historically followed a brutal but predictable rhythm, and the current drawdown may not be finished yet. 📉 Data from prior cycles shows that $BTC bottoms typically occur 364 to 406 days after the cycle peak. Right now, we are only around day 318 from the top. That places us squarely in the window where previous bear markets were still grinding lower, even if the price action feels heavy or directionless. What makes this cycle unusual is the depth—or lack thereof. BAfter the loss of $ZEC core developers, the continuity of protocol maintenance and security audits is in doubt.
In terms of market performance, although ZEC has a market cap of about $9.4 billion and a growth of over 1500% in the past year, the apparent prosperity conceals structural risks. Different data sources show a huge discrepancy in 24-hour trading volume, ranging from $250 million to $640 million, reflecting the opacity of liquidity data itself. The contract market has open positions of about $1.07 billion, with over $25 million liquidated in 24 hours, indicating a strong speculative leverage element. More worrisome is that a company called Cypherpunk Technologies controls about 18% of the network's hash power and holds over 323,000 ZEC. The high concentration of hash power and holdings raises concerns about $ZEC facing "pseudo-decentralization." Although Grayscale is pushing for an ETF, the $110 million investment intention from DCG's subsidiary is explicitly marked as "non-binding." Whether institutional confidence can offset the dual risks of technical governance remains unknown.$BTC +8% overnight, $ETH +5%, but don't rush to call it a "bull comeback" — derivatives structure tells you this looks more like a short squeeze, not a trend. Funding rates have only mildly turned positive, open interest rises in sync with price, and 24h liquidations are almost entirely hitting shorts (over 90%). These three factors combined depict shorts being squeezed out, not new buying continuously coming in. Healthy rallies show volume and price rising together with restrained funding rates; pulse-like short squeezes show low volume, sharply heated funding rates, and one-sided liquidations. Understand the difference clearly, and your pricing of this move will be different. Data won't play along with you. What’s your take on the quality of this move? BTC’s 7.79% advance to $74,782 looks more like a BTC-led positioning reset than a clean market-wide risk-on move. ETH is up 4.56% and SOL 5.58%, both materially lagging, so the rally has breadth but not yet the rotation that usually signals stronger speculative conviction.
My base case is that BTC remains the preferred expression while macro uncertainty stays elevated. If relative strength continues to concentrate in BTC, I would treat the move as durable leadership, not evidence that the entire crypto complex has entered a new expansion phase.
NFA, just my read.After BTC stabilized above 70,000, what truly made me stop was not Bitcoin itself, but the shadows behind it that had finally caught up. Have you noticed that in this round of price increases, knockoffs are no longer the "side being given charity"? While monitoring the market today, I kept confirming one thing: after BTC breaks out, is money really willing to move out? Now the answer is slowly emerging — ETH surged nearly 18% to 19% this time, SOL and XRP both posted double-digit gains, and high-beta stocks like HYPE took off immediately. Looking only at one or two coins rising, it may be an independent trend, but when multiple sectors move simultaneously, the market atmosphere changes. My observation is that cross-market synergy is becoming the main theme. BTC sets the direction, ETH sets the pace, large-cap stocks like SOL and XRP hold the stage, and LINK, ONDO, AAVE, HYPE, SUI, and TAO each represent infrastructure, RWA, DeFi, L1, and AI narratives waiting in the audience. This structure is more like the launch phase rather than the distribution phase—because the distribution period is characterized by dominant leaders and weak follow-up, whereas now the baton is being passed around. But I have to pour some cold water on this. In this round of rapid rise, over $3 billion in short positions were liquidated, and this explosive momentum itself has an element of "squeezing." Short-term strength does not necessarily mean a stable trend; the key is whether it can hold up in the next few trading days. If BTC can hold the breakout zone, ETH will not retreat$BTC and $ETH have both broken through the EMA200 moving average, signaling the end of the bear market. This surge was predicted in earlier posts; my stance has been firm for the past two months, and all data points to the bottom having been formed.
Whether or not you caught this wave, I hope you avoid FOMO. Currently, the daily RSI is overbought, and the 70,000-80,000 range is a dense chip area, so selling pressure will not be light. It's more appropriate to wait for a pullback to the EMA200 and a stable hold before entering.
In the next two weeks, there are two key variables everyone should closely watch:
First, the procedural vote on the Clarity Act on September 15.
The Senate will reconvene around September 14. This rally largely priced in the expectation that "the bill will pass" in advance. On August 19, Trump called industry executives to the White House and publicly urged Congress, and the market immediately responded. Conversely, if progress is not made by mid-September, the pressure to give back gains will come directly. This is a typical buy-the-rumor trade; you need to know what you are buying.
Second, the FOMC meeting on September 15-16.
Currently, the market remains divided on whether there will be a rate hike this year. On the macro side, the moves came first: the Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, long-term yields fell, and the dollar weakened. Bitcoin rose along with stocks, bonds, and gold, rather than strengthening on its own.
The real test will be the week of mid-September. Regardless of the outcome, I will publish a review then.You reap what you sow, holding the position
If the long-term US Treasury yields surge again, the crypto market will most likely face systemic correction pressure once more. Bitcoin could even dip to the $55,000 range, with a significantly increased probability of a 30% level large fluctuation within 60 days.
- Note that this US Treasury repo is only improving bond market liquidity, not the Federal Reserve starting QE easing. The current rebound is driven more by short covering rather than a full inflow of new funds, so it cannot be directly equated with the start of a new bull market.BTC just broke through, but ETH funds are rising first: Are institutions rotating positions or betting early on a second rally?
Brothers, the most worth watching this time is not how much BTC has broken through, but that ETH funds have started moving early.
After $BTC broke through 72,000, the price consolidated at a high level; $ETH also stood back above 2,300. Recent public statistics show that in July, ETH spot ETF net inflows accounted for about 9.4 times that of BTC by fund size, indicating institutions are clearly seeking higher Beta opportunities.
But this cannot be directly interpreted as "institutions selling BTC to buy ETH."
BTC spot ETFs still had about $517 million net inflow in a single day, indicating the main BTC trend has not disappeared; ETH seems more like it is taking on the second phase of risk appetite early after the main trend stabilizes.
I only watch a few levels:
BTC holding 72,000 is needed to have a chance to challenge 75,000;
ETH stabilizing above 2,300 and breaking through 2,400 confirms fund migration;
If BTC falls back to 70,000 and ETH loses 2,300, this rotation may only be a short-term catch-up rally.
My judgment is: it looks more like institutions are testing position rotation now, not a full shift yet. The cost-effectiveness of chasing ETH is no longer high; waiting for breakout confirmation is more important than guessing fund direction.
Brothers, do you think ETH is running ahead early, or is this another internal rotation among the mainstream?
$BTC $ETH
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $BTC just pulled back from $75.7K, but buyers haven’t lost the structure yet.
The $74K area is the level I’m watching on this 15m chart. Hold it and another push toward $75K+ looks possible.
Lose it with momentum, and I’d stop chasing.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #BTCRallyOrSqueeze Hynix's Earnings and Stock Price Divergence: What Is the Reason Behind the Decline After the Strongest Earnings Report?
1. The Market Has Priced In in Advance, Expectations Leading Earnings
From the beginning of the year to the June peak, SK Hynix's Korean stock rose by 349%. The positive outlook for AI storage chips has long been fully or even overly priced in. When the earnings report is "only" a record high rather than "exceeding expectations," it instead triggers profit-taking.
2. Concerns Over the Sustainability of AI Hardware Spending
As a key supplier of NVIDIA's HBM chips, SK Hynix has greatly benefited from the AI boom, but the market is beginning to question whether the growth rate of future AI infrastructure investments can be maintained. The slowdown in AI chip price increases, combined with concerns about the sustainability of high spending in the AI sector, has become a continuous drag on the stock price.
3. The Double-Edged Sword Effect of Long-Term Supply Agreements
The company has finalized long-term supply agreements with about 10 customers, locking in approximately 50% of sales. While this stabilizes long-term demand expectations, it also suppresses short-term product price increases, becoming one of the reasons for earnings falling short of expectations this time.
4. Structural Risks in the Korean Market
SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics together account for over 50% weight in the index, causing a negative spiral between the index and individual stocks. After earnings missed expectations, the KOSPI triggered circuit breakers consecutively, further intensifying selling pressure.
SK Hynix is currently in a "peak earnings + valuation bottom" tug-of-war. The buyback plan has confirmed the company's value judgment bottom line, but a thorough revaluation of the stock price requires the market to reconfirm the long-term demand logic for AI storage. The on-chain activity after the price increase is more interesting than the price itself.
A hacker address has spent a total of $46.49 million over the past day-plus to buy 21,659 ETH at an average price of $2,146.
Six hours ago, they added another 3,386 ETH, spending $7.95 million.
The hacker is buying aggressively.
On the other side, the whale known as “7 Siblings” sold 9,000 ETH at an average price of $2,338 in the past 6 hours after ETH rose 20%, converting it back to 21.04 million USDT.
In the same price range, two groups are moving in completely opposite directions.
What’s more subtle is that this whale’s operation pattern is “buy on dips, sell on rises” — they did the same in February and June this year.
In the same market, some are building positions while others are reducing them; both logics are correct, just on different time scales.
$BTC The price movement of the Ethereum ETF over these three days is cleaner than in the past two months.
On August 19, there was a net inflow of $189.15 million, with a total trading volume reaching $2.14 billion, and net assets increasing to $12.06 billion.
BlackRock led this wave of capital allocation.
The most critical point is that for three consecutive days — the first time since June — institutions' actions on Ethereum are no longer in the jittery pattern of "buying then selling, selling then buying."
ETFs have a characteristic: once a net inflow forms a continuous trend, it indicates not retail FOMO but institutions making quarterly allocations. BlackRock and Fidelity are buying simultaneously, Grayscale is also active, and the three are aligned in direction, something rarely seen in the past two months. Money is piling up in one direction, so the price naturally follows.
The attitude of capital towards the Ethereum ETF is shifting from "just trying it out" to "time to allocate." This is far more worth noting than short-term price fluctuations. $BTC Last night's sharp one-sided surge indeed caught many off guard; some even stayed up all night without understanding the logic. Here's a simple breakdown of why the market suddenly exploded. First, it was an emotional release after long-term suppression. The market had been quiet for too long, volatility was suppressed to an extremely low level, and capital was like a drought-stricken fishpond—once fresh water flows in, the reaction is especially intense. This "spring effect" is particularly evident in the crypto market: the longer the sideways consolidation, the stronger the momentum upon breakout. The more critical trigger came from the macro side. Last night, the U.S. Treasury announced a plan to repurchase government bonds, which directly changed the market's supply and demand structure. The circulating government bonds in the market decreased, naturally pushing prices higher, and rising bond prices mean yields fall. When yields lose their appeal, a large amount of capital seeks new outlets, making "non-yielding assets" like gold and Bitcoin obvious recipients. This is one of the core logics behind the synchronous rally of BTC and major coins last night. However, it should be noted that this is more of a phase judgment based on macro liquidity rather than the ultimate answer to the trend. The actual pace of the Treasury's repurchase plan execution, subsequent economic data, and the Federal Reserve's policy path will all affect the sustainability of capital flows. How far short-term emotional release combined with macro positives can push the market still depends on whether volume can keep up. The above is just a personal, superficial interpretation; the market is always full of uncertainties, and discussion is welcome. Risk reminder: Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; the above content does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and bear risks on your own. $BTC $On August 20th, the Glamsterdam fork was officially activated on the Platåberget testnet.
This is not a mainnet upgrade; it is intentionally launched first as a public "collision test."
The foundation issued a warning several days in advance — wallets, indexers, and Gas estimation tools that rely on hardcoded Gas limits will crash and must be updated.
The Protocol DevOps team stated: "Any tool relying on a 'hardcoded maximum Gas limit' will crash."
The Gas model is changing, but the infrastructure hasn't caught up yet. Developers are rushing to adapt; the testnet will run for several months, followed by Sepolia and Hoodi, and finally the mainnet.
Since The Merge in 2022, this is the largest protocol change for Ethereum, quietly launched alongside a price surge. Prices are ahead of the infrastructure, with developers catching up behind. Once testing is complete and the mainnet goes live, changes to the Gas mechanism will fundamentally alter Ethereum's underlying logic. These changes won't appear on daily charts, but they will determine how much transaction volume the chain can handle in the coming months. $BTC Yesterday, the entire network liquidated $1.69 billion, with short positions accounting for 88.73%.
A trader named pension-usdt.eth, who once achieved a 23-win streak relying on a high-leverage short strategy, suffered a single loss of $49 million during this rally.
ETH broke through $2350, with a 24-hour increase of over 12%. The price rose from $1900 to $2350 in less than two days.
At the same time, ETFs are also providing support. On August 20, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $189 million, marking the third consecutive trading day of net inflows. BlackRock's ETHA absorbed $122 million, and Fidelity's FETH brought in $36.54 million. Ethereum spot ETFs have accumulated about $290 million in inflows this week.
One direction, three forces pushing simultaneously—the liquidated shorts, the continuously entering ETFs, and the forced buybacks from leverage. The price has broken through, but the fastest growth phase is already behind. $BTC #Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, aiming to raise funds potentially matching SpaceX. Folks, there's big news again in the AI circle.
Anthropic is preparing to publicly submit IPO documents by the end of August, targeting a fundraising scale directly comparable to or even surpassing SpaceX—that's in the range of $75 billion to $86.2 billion. Some investors have already valued the IPO at $2 trillion.
Let's look at the data first; it's indeed impressive.
Preliminary Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, compared to only $787 million in the same period of 2025. Annualized revenue by the end of July reached $65 billion, while 2025 year-end is projected at $9 billion. Q2 also marked the first time adjusted operating profit turned positive.
But don't overlook the other side.
The full-year net loss for 2025 is about $42 billion, five times the $8.3 billion loss in 2024. The computing power agreement signed with SpaceX over three years could be worth hundreds of billions. On one hand, they're making money; on the other, they're burning cash—how does this balance out?
A few words from me.
The AI track is not short of stories; Anthropic went from $965 billion to $2 trillion in just three months. But the $2 trillion valuation corresponds to an internal forecast of $190 billion to $200 billion revenue in 2028—tripling in four years and maintaining profitability is no small feat.
If this IPO goes through, it will be a strong boost for the AI chip and data center sectors. But with the market cap just hitting 75,000, the liquidity drain effect of such massive fundraising should also be kept in mind. Let's wait for the public documents to see the real picture; don't get ahead of yourself now. $SNDK $BTC Guys, the big bing has been going through a lot these past three days. As of the morning of August 21 Beijing time, BTC broke through $75,000, a 24-hour increase of about 8.18%, closing at $75,021.2. During the session, it reached a high of 75,770, and in three days, it surged from 64,000 to above 75,000, rising more than 11,000 points. This rally is driven by three forces in succession. First Leg: The bears themselves take the bill. BTC has been sideways around 64,000 for nearly a month, with short positions piling up like mountains. After breaking through 64,500, a chain of forced liquidations is triggered, forcing bears to buy and close positions to push prices higher, triggering more liquidations. In the past 24 hours, over $1.087 billion was liquidated globally, with more than 127,000 people buried. Second Leg: Trump's Gift of Policies. On August 19, Trump met with crypto executives from Coinbase, Ripple, and other companies at the White House, urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. The SEC also introduced a draft "Crypto Asset Regulation" that week allows some digital asset issuances to be exempt from registration. Regulation shifted from "containment" to "greenlight," and expectations have completely changed. The third blow: the Ministry of Finance is injecting liquidity. The Treasury Department doubled the repurchase scale of long-term Treasury bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion, with long-term yields dropping significantly and the dollar weakening. Money flows from the bond market into risk assets. The third baton took the baton and directly pushed BTC from 64,000 to 75,000. But the hidden dangers are also obvious. Fundstrat points out that Bitcoin's volatility has hit a historic low, and there could be a 30% significant swing in the next 60 days—at 6Brothers, $SNDK finally stopped falling today.
Just confirmed the data, on Thursday SNDK closed at $1,600.62, up 2.02%, and after-hours remained around $1,607. Your quoted 1604 basically matches the after-hours price. The sharp drop from $1,787 to $1,542 in the past two days has temporarily halted.
📊 What happened? The sector got hit, but it was the most resilient
On Wednesday, the entire storage sector was hammered—Seagate down 7%, Western Digital down 6%, Lumentum down 5%, while SanDisk only fell 3.5%, making it the most resistant among them.
The recent sharp drop actually has nothing to do with fundamentals: after an 8.88% surge in a day, short-term profit-taking concentrated, combined with a sector-wide pullback, caused a drop from 1787 to 1569 in two days, a 12% retracement. When it rises too much, it falls, it's that simple.
📈 Fundamentals: The long-term logic remains intact
Unlike stocks that crash and reveal fundamental problems, SNDK’s fundamentals have not collapsed; on the contrary, they are quite strong:
· Q4 revenue surged 371% year-over-year to $8.96 billion, with a net profit margin of 77%
· Long-term contracts have locked in the basic business for the next four to five years, no longer a cyclical stock dependent on market conditions
· Analyst average target price is still at $2,126, 35% higher than current, with 24 analysts rating it as "Buy"
Some analysts put it bluntly: this is not a logic failure like in 2022, but a normal pullback due to "good news being priced in and excessive gains."
💰 My view
The stop near $1,600 and after-hours bounce back to $1,607 indicates there is buying interest at this level.
But don’t get too excited—daily charts are still bearish, and rebounds after sharp drops usually need time to confirm a bottom. Watch if $1,550 can hold; if it breaks again, downside space may open further.
My strategy:
· For bottom-fishers: wait for confirmation that $1,550 won’t be broken before acting; a rebound now doesn’t mean a reversal
· For holders: those with high cost bases should reduce positions between $1,650-$1,700 on rebounds; don’t expect a quick jump back to $1,800
· For long-term players: the $2,126 target price remains, but the process may take a long time
SNDK is still that good asset with "AI storage + long-term contract lock-in," but short-term profit-taking needs time to digest. $1,600 is not expensive, but rushing in might get you shaken out again.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 Iran has issued a tough warning, targeting the Yanbu and Fujairah oil export terminals, as well as the US-backed "shadow fleet" and support network in the Strait of Hormuz.
Yanbu and Fujairah are the two most important crude oil export routes bypassing the blocked straits. Iran's series of attacks on the energy market have a clear purpose: to trigger a global oil price surge and impact the midterm elections of Trump and his party. Brent crude has already risen to around $93; if it really escalates, $100 could be reached in no time.
Iranian officials have also made their intentions clear: the goal is not military occupation but political disruption. First, by attacking to push up crude prices, which will transmit to US gas stations within two to three weeks, then push up the CPI, so voters will directly feel the rising cost of living before the November vote.
Trump's tough counterattack could drive oil prices even higher; choosing to de-escalate might make him appear weak. Let's see how "Mouthy Trump" will respond next~Don't just look at Bitcoin's green candle. What's really happening is the macro money flow is shifting. 🇺🇸 The US is increasing purchases of long-term bonds → yields cool down → DXY weakens → risk appetite recovers. Immediately after, Bitcoin surged past $72,000, while spot ETF inflows surged and over $3 billion in short positions were liquidated, adding momentum to the rally. (Reuters) But here's the noteworthy part: BTC rises → liquidity spreads to ETH → then SOL, XRP, HYPE, and the high-beta altcoin group start to explode.#BTC accelerates its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
Ethereum ETH trend analysis
What drives this round of rise
1. Macro is the primary driver (strongly correlated with US Treasury bonds)
The US Treasury expands bond repurchases, long-term bond yields quickly fall, and the US dollar weakens.
Ethereum is a highly elastic risk asset, more sensitive to interest rates than Bitcoin: when rates fall, ETH often rises more sharply than BTC; when rates rebound, ETH's pullback is also greater.
2. Short squeeze, leverage-driven surge
This rapid rise caused many shorts to be liquidated, with overall crypto market liquidations in the billions of dollars; ETH contract shorts stopped out massively, further pushing up the price. This is a leverage-driven impulsive rebound, not a complete fundamental reversal.
3. ETF capital support
Large single-day net inflows appeared in the US spot Ethereum ETF, with funds from products like BlackRock amplifying buying power, institutional funds entering short-term; but note: ETF inflows can be volatile and not sustained continuously.
4. Highly follows Bitcoin
ETH and BTC have high correlation; when Bitcoin rallies, Ethereum follows; if Bitcoin turns down, ETH's decline will be more severe.
Key technical levels (short term)
• Resistance above
1. First resistance: $2300‑$2340, the high point of this rally, the first hurdle; volume must hold above here to open upward space.
2. Second resistance: $2420‑$2450, previous trapped platform, stronger pressure.
• Support below
1. First support: $2140‑$2200, the platform where this rally started; if it holds on a pullback here, the rebound structure remains.
2. Strength/weakness dividing line: $1950‑$2000; if effectively broken down, this rebound rally fails and will return to a consolidation range.
ETH characteristics compared to BTC $ETH $BTC $SOL $ZEC On the technical side, ZEC's proud zero-knowledge proof privacy architecture has exposed serious flaws. In May 2026, security researcher Taylor Hornby discovered a critical vulnerability in the Orchard privacy pool—attackers could forge unlimited amounts of ZEC without being traceable on-chain. This vulnerability had been dormant for four years since its activation in 2022. A more fundamental question arises: privacy design itself is a double-edged sword. Because transactions are fully encrypted, the team has so far been unable to prove that the vulnerability has not been exploited. The so-called "no evidence of exploitation" is essentially an unfalsifiable proposition. Although the Ironwood upgrade introduced a turnstile mechanism to block the old pool, the historical innocence of approximately 3.66 million ZEC can never be self-proven.
Regarding team developments, at the beginning of 2026, the core ECC development team collectively left due to serious disagreements with the nonprofit governance organization Bootstrap and founded a new company, CashZ. On the same day, ZEC plummeted about 20%. Founder Zooko Wilcox publicly sided with the governance faction rather than the development team, exposing deep internal governance fractures within the project. After the loss of core developers, the continuity of protocol maintenance and security audits is in doubt. While Grayscale is pushing forward with the ZEC ETF, whether institutional confidence can hedge against the dual risks of technical and governance issues remains unknown.The era of everything ICO has begun
Airdrop tracks continue to decline
ETHOS has already set a precedent
Public token sale + 0% community airdrop
If that's the case
It is strongly recommended that project teams declare at the start
That they will never distribute airdrops to the community
This maintains openness and transparency and doesn't waste everyone's time
Otherwise, it's hypocritical—profiting while pretending to be virtuous
Brothers still clinging to free gains
It's time to find a way out for yourselves Today, Socket disclosed a batch of malicious Firefox extensions: 40 have been confirmed to steal wallets or credentials, and another 37 are linked to the same publishing network.
More noteworthy than "fake wallets being listed" is that some extensions initially were just sports scores or ordinary tools, then reused the same Firefox ID and transformed into wallet-stealing programs through version updates. What users saw when they first installed them might indeed have been normal functionality.
This is the supply chain risk of browser wallets: you trust not only the installation package but also the publisher account, subsequent automatic updates, and remotely loaded extension content. Checking the name and rating once only proves it looked normal at installation time; it does not guarantee the version six months later is still safe.
Among them, 13 modified Rabby extensions exfiltrate the keyring before it is locally encrypted. This detail defies common sense: even if the wallet claims "data is encrypted locally," malicious code inserted before encryption can still obtain plaintext.
My approach is to separate assets from the browser: keep only small amounts in high-frequency interaction wallets; do not store long-term assets in daily browser extensions; regularly check the extension list, publishers, and recent version changes. If you notice sudden changes in icons, permissions, or interface, disable the extension first and do not rush to enter recovery phrases for verification.
Official stores can reduce filtering costs but cannot continuously verify the update chain for you.
How often do you check wallet extensions in your browser? BTC climbed back above $70,000, peaking near $75,000; strong coins like ETH and HYPE also surged, with over $3 billion in short liquidations occurring in the market. But I actually think: the most dangerous time may just be beginning. Because this rise is not simply a "sudden frenzy of funds." The U.S. Treasury is expanding long-term U.S. debt repurchases, Trump continues to push for a regulatory framework for the crypto market, and the CFTC has signaled a greater openness to the crypto industry—all of which have collectively improved market risk appetite. On top of that, a large number of short positions were forced to liquidate. Thus, a very typical trend emerged: the news spurred → BTC up→ short liquidations→ forced to buy, → price continued to rise→ more short stop-losses → pushed the rally again. This is a short squeeze. So now, what I'm most concerned about isn't whether BTC can still rise. Rather: After the short squeeze ends, is there still real new buying relay? These two things are completely different concepts. If BTC can hold above $70,000, trading volume continues to expand, ETF funds keep flowing in, and mainstream strong coins like ETH, SOL, and HYPE continue to rotate, then this wave could gradually shift from a "short squeeze" to a true trend reversal. But if BTC surges to around 73,000 and then starts to stagnate on high volume, with altcoins crazily catching up, and social media starts shouting "The bull market is back," I would actually be more cautious. Because the real big top has never beenThe U.S. Treasury is expanding its Treasury buyback program, pushing the 30-year yield down from around 5.3%.
On the surface, this is positive: U.S. Treasuries stop falling, the dollar weakens, gold rises, and U.S. stocks get a short-term breather.
But the real point is — lowering interest rates ≠ risk disappearing.
The surge in long-term yields is because the market is repricing the U.S. fiscal deficit, debt supply, and inflation stickiness. The Treasury’s current buying is just inserting official bids at the most vulnerable long end to cut off negative feedback.
Short-term beneficiaries:
Gold benefits most directly
Utilities, REITs, and financials feel more comfortable
U.S. stock indices are likely to rebound
Tech stocks remain under pressure because there are doubts whether AI capital expenditures can translate into real profits, and high interest rates increase valuation pressure.
So this is not an all-around positive but a deepening divergence: gold and defensive assets benefit, while tech growth stocks continue to be tested.
The key now is not chasing gains but watching whether the Treasury buyback can truly stabilize long-term yields.
Short term is about support; medium term is the test. If the 30-year yield only temporarily falls then surges again, risk assets will continue to be repriced.Last night, both the US stock market and gold surged simultaneously, a rare occurrence.
The trigger was the US Treasury's increase in the long-term bond repurchase scale, set to take effect in September. This is not QE money printing, but merely an improvement in long-term bond market liquidity. After the news, long-term bond yields fell, and the US dollar weakened.
The rise in US stocks was because the decline in yields eased valuation pressure on growth stocks; the market believes bond market risks have been alleviated, boosting risk appetite.
Gold surged because, on one hand, the real yield on US bonds declined, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, and on the other hand, the weakening dollar created a double benefit. The market is also hedging against credit risk brought by US debt.
In my personal view, this market movement is mainly driven by falling interest rates, which caused stocks and gold to rise together. However, the repurchase scale is limited relative to the total US debt size and is more of an emotional driver. If US economic data improves and rate cut expectations weaken, both assets face correction risks. Do not blindly chase the highs. After BTC consolidated around 63,000 and then broke out with volume through the descending trendline from 69K to 70K, it reached a high above 75,700. This level is not only a technical breakout but also a short squeeze zone, a resonance point of the previous platform and trendline. Therefore, the rally speed was very fast. The core driver of the rise is not a single positive factor but a combination of macro, policy, capital, and liquidation forces pushing together. The decline in US Treasury yields and weakening of the dollar alleviated pressure on risk assets. Expectations of increased crypto regulation improved market pricing. After spot funds re-entered, shorts concentrated on covering, pushing the market into a large daily bullish candle. However, from the trading structure perspective, this wave is not a pure spot slow bull. BTC funding rates have clearly turned positive, and contract positions have rebounded, indicating leveraged funds are also chasing. The advantage is stronger trend elasticity; the downside is a high probability of a pullback and shakeout later. It is unlikely to rally straight to new highs. Historically, strong rebounds in bear markets often first break the descending line, then push to the Fibonacci 38.2% or previous dense chip zones and get resisted. Calculating from the 126,000 high to the 58,000 low, around 74,000 is the 23.6% retracement, around 84,000 is 38.2%, and around 92,000 is 50%. The 73,500 to 74,000 range is a short-term strength/weakness line; 70,000 to 72,000 is the breakout retest zone; 78,000 to 80,000 is the first resistance; 82,000 to 84,000 is the most critical top zone of this rebound; 88,000 to 92,000 requires sustained ETF inflows and continued cooperation from US stocks. My judgment is that this rally has already shaken off weakness and will most likely consolidate upward first.I originally thought that the recent $BTC movement was just a little warm-up, but when I opened my eyes, it started sprinting directly. A few days ago, it was still grinding around over sixty thousand dollars, and now market sentiment has suddenly been reignited.
What’s most noteworthy about this rally is not just the sudden price surge, but that capital has finally started to return. On August 19, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $517 million, hitting a new high since early May. The ETH ETF also recorded a net inflow of about $189 million that day, with BTC and ETH together attracting roughly $700 million in capital.
At the same time, shorts have become fuel for this rally. During BTC’s rapid rise, a large number of short positions were liquidated en masse, and forced covering further amplified the gains. The market shifted from previously low-volatility sideways movement to a high-volatility state all at once.
But I think we shouldn’t just look at how much it has risen now; we need to see who is actually buying this wave of gains.
If it’s just short covering, the rally may be fast but could also retreat quickly. However, the renewed inflow of ETF funds indicates that at least the spot side has started to take over, which is healthier than purely relying on leverage to push prices up.
Combined with the recent decline in US Treasury yields and improved liquidity expectations, BTC has indeed entered a relatively comfortable external environment. But rising too fast also means the market is prone to short-term overheating.
So what’s really worth watching next is not "can it rise another $1,000?"
But whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, whether spot buying can hold, and whether there will be buyers after price pullbacks.
If all these conditions are met, then this rally might not just be a short squeeze but a trend correction.
But if capital can’t keep up and leverage piles up again, the faster it rises, the more expensive the market’s next lesson might be.
If capital can continue to flow in, then there’s still more to watch in this wave.
If it turns into leverage running wild again, the harder it surges, the faster it might fall.
$ETH $SOL $OKB
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ The Short Squeeze Nobody Wants to Chase
BTC just ripped from $64K to $73K, while ETH pushed above $2,340. And the liquidation numbers are insane: around $3.3B wiped out, with shorts making up roughly 92% of the damage. 🔥
But don’t get trapped by the “$160B entered the market” narrative.
This looks much more like a massive short squeeze than a wave of fresh spot capital. Forced short covering can make the chart look unstoppable—until the forced buying runs out.
#DailyOrbit Market Performance: From the $64,000–$66,000 range, the 24-hour high surged to $73,000, with a single-day maximum increase close to 12%, making it one of the strongest single-day rebounds this year.
The rise is driven by macro liquidity + favorable US policies + historic short squeeze + ETF capital inflow, with multiple factors coinciding and resonating, not caused by a single factor.
1. Trigger: US Treasury expands bond repurchase (macro liquidity ignition)
The 30-year US Treasury yield hit a multi-year high, raising market concerns about tightening liquidity.
The Treasury announced a doubling of long-term bond repurchase scale, effective from September, to suppress long-term bond yields.
- US Treasury yields declined, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yield assets like Bitcoin, driving funds toward high-risk assets;
- Gold and US tech stocks rose sharply in tandem, with Bitcoin taking the lead riding the macro tailwind.
2. Booster: White House crypto summit, regulatory expectations significantly improve
On August 19, the White House held a high-level crypto industry summit:
1. Trump stated: ending the US war on cryptocurrencies, urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act (to provide clear legal classification for crypto), even discussing government reserves of Bitcoin;
2. The SEC simultaneously proposed a crypto asset registration exemption to reduce industry compliance pressure.
Market interpretation: US regulation shifted from suppression to support, significantly reducing institutional risk concerns about crypto, with sentiment quickly reversing.
3. Strongest amplifier: massive short squeeze (short liquidations stampede, accelerating the surge)
Bitcoin had been consolidating between $64,000–$67,000 for weeks, with the market accumulating many bearish short positions, many betting on further decline.
Once the price breaks key resistance upward, shorts trigger forced liquidations; liquidation requires buying Bitcoin, creating a buy-more-as-it-rises cycle.
- $3.3 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with nearly $3.1 billion from shorts, marking a historic level of short liquidation, pushing the market higher.
Often, short-term surges are not due to massive new buyers but forced short covering.
4. Real buy confirmation: spot ETF capital inflow
As the market exploded, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded its largest single-day net inflow in three and a half months, about $517 million.
This represents real institutional capital entering, not just contract leverage speculation, providing spot support for the rebound.
$OKB It seems that Crypto's largest open-source data website, Dune, is also struggling to hold on...
From a single refresh costing 10c to pay-per-credit, from partial suspension of data table maintenance to starting to charge fees, and then free users becoming read-only
The operational data costs are increasing, profitability depends on unstable C-end paid memberships, while B-end client expansion seems to lag behind competitor Allium
Another issue is that reliable analysts seem to be decreasing; on one hand, there aren't many themes on-chain to analyze, on the other hand, team-based operations like Blockworks and Artemis have higher average quality
Introducing AI analysis is a highlight, Dune CLI and MCP have minimized on-chain analysis capabilities. However, verifying data authenticity still has certain barriers, and the paid prices are not cheap, so there may not be enough Native users willing to pay long-term
Dune is still around, but the halo of the largest open-source data community is gradually being worn down by costs and commercial realitiesBitcoin surges to $75,000, but the real test is just beginning
The gains have significantly expanded over the past 24 hours. Market sentiment quickly shifted from cautious observation to chasing the rally, with short covering, trend trading, and improved regulatory expectations all pushing prices higher.
The CFTC chairman has sent a clear signal: even if the Clarity Act does not pass smoothly, regulators will not wait indefinitely. In other words, the U.S. crypto market is moving from the question of "whether there will be regulation" to "who will regulate and how the boundaries will be defined."
This is critical for trading platforms, derivatives markets, and token issuers. The clearer the rules, the easier it is for institutions to enter; but the more specific the rules, the more likely businesses that rely on regulatory gray areas will be repriced.
Large volatility bets on XRP and bullish option trades on Hyperliquid following statements related to Trump indicate that the market remains highly sensitive to political information.
Whether BTC can hold above $75,000 depends on whether spot capital follows through, whether ETF flows improve, and whether leverage accumulates too quickly. If the acceleration is just due to short covering, prices are likely to oscillate repeatedly at this key level. If spot demand strengthens simultaneously, the market has reason to view this breakout as a trend change rather than a mere emotional spike.
The next phase of the crypto market is no longer just about whether Bitcoin rises.
More importantly, it is about whether regulatory clarity can translate into real capital, real products, and real use cases. BTC has already moved from the short squeeze phase into the trend confirmation phase, while the Anthropic IPO indicates that global venture capital is still willing to pay a very high premium for high growth. BTC's movement over the past two days has clearly shifted to a higher level. It accelerated from 64,000, reaching a high of 75,770, and is currently still around 74,400. More importantly, the 1-hour EMA7 at about 73,880, EMA25 at about 72,100, and EMA99 at about 67,940 have formed a bullish structure. So my current judgment is not "whether it can still rise," but rather: on the first decent pullback, will there be buyers? Previously, BTC breaking through 70,000 was driven not only by short squeeze but also by the US Treasury's expanded debt repurchase, the decline of the dollar and long-term yields, and improved expectations for US crypto regulation. Reuters reported that after the US Treasury expanded long-term debt repurchases, risk assets clearly benefited, while Trump continued to push the CLARITY Act. Therefore, in trading, I am now clearly more inclined to wait for a pullback to go long, rather than shorting just because the price has risen a lot. My first observation zone for BTC is 73,800–74,200; the truly important level is around 72,000. As long as the 1-hour structure does not effectively break below 72K, this trend remains intact. The area above 75,700–76,000 has already entered a short-term resistance zone, and the odds of chasing longs have clearly decreased. If I really want to short, I would rather wait for two scenarios: a failure to break 76K followed by a quick drop back below 74K, or a break below 72K followed by a rebound that fails to recover above it. Brothers, remember, there is actually another very important signal to judge whether a bull market has arrived: whether $DOGE Dogecoin and other established altcoins are rising along. Currently, they are not.
Do you still remember the bull market after Trump took office in October 2024? Dogecoin led the rally, completely without any logic, soaring all the way. If established altcoins like Dogecoin do not form a strong upward trend afterward, I judge that this might just be a relatively large rebound within a bear market, as similar patterns can be found in past bear markets.#海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认
The leader has something to say
The two Korean memory giants dropped two bombs on the same timeline.
SK Hynix officially announced on August 19 a buyback and cancellation of 40 trillion KRW, about 28.6 billion USD, the largest in the history of Korean listed companies. They will repurchase 24.07 million shares, accounting for 3.3% of total shares, starting August 20 for three months.
Why act at this point?
Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 257% year-on-year, operating profit 60.54 trillion KRW, up 557%, and cumulative revenue for the first half of the year exceeded 100 trillion KRW for the first time. The performance is at a money-printing machine level, but the stock price fell from the June 25 high of 2.987 million KRW to 1.5 million, nearly halving. The management's original words were "the current stock price does not fully reflect the company's intrinsic value." Using 28.6 billion in real cash to make a statement is more effective than any research report.
The shareholder return policy is upgraded simultaneously. From 2025 to 2027, more than 50% of cumulative free cash flow will be used for shareholder returns, raised from "not exceeding 50%" to "not less than 50%." The annual fixed dividend is increased from 1,200 KRW per share to 1,500 KRW. Additional return plans will be disclosed when Q3 results are announced at the end of October.
Samsung is on another track. Korean media reported Samsung is preparing a shareholder return plan exceeding 100 trillion KRW, mainly cash dividends. The board meeting is planned before the end of August. Samsung chooses cash dividends instead of large-scale buybacks due to regulatory reasons—large buybacks would cause affiliated parties like Samsung Life Insurance to passively exceed shareholding limits, triggering mandatory sales under the Insurance Business Act. Direct special dividend distribution is the best way to avoid regulatory risks. Analysts estimate the final scale could reach 120 trillion KRW.
SK Hynix ADR rose over 7% pre-market. On August 20, KOSPI rose over 6%, triggering the Sidecar mechanism and suspending program trading for 5 minutes. Hynix rose over 13% intraday, Samsung over 9%.
Wall Street collectively raised target prices: Nomura maintains buy with a target of 4.7 million KRW; Goldman Sachs maintains buy with a target of 3.5 million KRW; JPMorgan target price 2.75 million KRW, about 84% upside from current price.
Goldman Sachs estimates Hynix can return at least 130 billion USD more to shareholders by 2027. Nomura forecasts free cash flow of 156 trillion and 318 trillion KRW for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 respectively, with a 50% return ratio, shareholder return rates about 7% and 15%.
There are two levels worth pondering.
First, the money earned from AI storage is starting to be distributed to shareholders on a large scale. Semiconductor companies used to keep earnings for expansion. But now Hynix is expanding production while still able to repurchase 28.6 billion, indicating HBM's cash flow quality is on a completely different level from traditional storage cycles. The valuation logic shifts from cyclical stocks to high growth plus high cash flow plus shareholder returns.
Second, Samsung and Hynix combined shareholder returns near 140 trillion KRW, sending a signal to the global capital market: Korean conglomerates are really starting to be responsible to shareholders with real cash. For Korea domestically, the long-criticized "Korea discount" may face revaluation.
The valuation anchor for the storage sector has changed. Previously it was about how much HBM could sell; now it's about how the earned money is distributed. The Hynix Q3 earnings call at the end of October is the next key catalyst.
Bitcoin fell back from 75,000 and is oscillating near 72,000, waiting for a pullback with no position. SPCX base position continues the pattern, profits are sufficient. Wait for storage and others to pull back before acting.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is timely; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck.Truly explosive. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
$BTC continued its rally during the Asian session today (August 21) after breaking through $72,000 yesterday, surging past the $75,000 mark and reaching a high of $75,740. At the time of writing, BTC is fluctuating between $74,000 and $75,000. The increase over the past two days has approached 20%.
📈 Three forces pushed BTC to $75,000
First, the Treasury's "balance sheet expansion" is the biggest catalyst. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the cap on long-term Treasury buybacks will be at least doubled (from $2 billion to $4 billion), lowering long-term Treasury yields and weakening the dollar, which the market views as a "liquidity improvement signal." VanEck's head of research bluntly stated: "This concerns the U.S. Treasury's performance and has reignited worries about fiscal dominance."
Second, continued positive policy signals. Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Kraken, and others at the White House, urging Congress to quickly pass the Clarity Act. The SEC also proposed new measures to relax registration requirements for certain digital asset issuances.
Third, the short squeeze is not over yet. Over the past 24 hours, more than 136,000 traders were liquidated, totaling $1.23 billion. The passive buying generated by short covering continues to push prices upward.
🐂 Is this really "the bull is here"?
Optimists believe BTC breaking $75,000 is technically significant — $70,000 is an important psychological barrier, and holding above it continuously shows buyers are willing to chase prices. The Fear & Greed Index has risen to 62, entering the "greed" zone, the highest since October 2025. Bernstein previously maintained a $150,000 target price by the end of 2026.
But there are many sober voices:
Technically, BTC is severely overbought. The RSI(14) reading is as high as 92.5, in the extremely overbought range. The 50-day EMA support is at $66,316, far below the current price, so the risk of a pullback objectively exists.
A short squeeze does not equal a bull market. Several industry insiders pointed out that this surge is "triggered by a combination of multiple policy benefits and short squeezes, but a single short squeeze rally does not mean the start of a bull market; the sustainability of the trend remains questionable." MEXC Research's chief analyst bluntly called it an "overreaction," saying the Treasury merely opened a "pressure relief valve" and did not truly improve Bitcoin's macro fundamentals.
The real test lies in "turnover." Zeus Research analysts warned: "Once crowded short positions are cleared, this rally must rely on its own strength, driven by genuine spot demand, liquidity, and macro fundamentals." Short-term holders have transferred 44,300 BTC to exchanges in profit-taking mode, marking the largest profit-taking event since 2026. Whether spot buying can absorb this selling pressure is key to the next move.
💎 Summary
$75,000 is a three-month high. But this rally still heavily depends on the short squeeze as a "one-time fuel" — the cleaner the shorts are cleared, the more the subsequent upward momentum will need to be supported by real spot demand.
Chasing highs may not be cost-effective. What deserves more attention is whether, after a pullback, $75,000 can turn from a "resistance" into a "support" — that is the key signal to judge whether "the bull is really here." Why is a large bullish candlestick the most likely to mislead people into thinking the trend has reversed?
After going through several bull and bear cycles, I am increasingly reluctant to call a “bull return” based on just one explosive K-line surge.
After the market consolidates for a long time and suddenly breaks out, short sellers’ stop losses and liquidations create forced buying; outside funds see the rise and chase in, pushing the price up faster and faster.
It looks like massive capital is scrambling to accumulate, but in reality, the initial surge may mainly be shorts being forced to cover.
I used to be most prone to chasing highs at such times: seeing BTC break out, ETH and altcoins collectively catching up, I thought a new cycle was confirmed.
But after the short liquidation ends, if subsequent spot funds don’t follow through, the market quickly falls back to the original range.
A true reversal can’t be judged just by how strong the rise is.
You also need to look at three details: whether the price can hold after the breakout, whether volume shrinks on the pullback, and whether real funds like ETFs or on-chain stablecoins continue to flow in. If the price is mainly driven up by contract positions and funding rates, the sharper the rise, the greater the subsequent volatility.
A large bullish candlestick only proves that buyers dominated at one moment, but it can’t prove that people will still be willing to buy in the coming weeks.
Remember: short liquidation can create a breakout, but only sustained spot buying can turn a breakout into a trend.What is Community-Supported Issuance (FWAir Launch)?
FWA has innovated again, launching a brand new NFT issuance method.
Simply put — creators no longer sell NFTs directly; instead, the community first "backs" the entire set of works, and upon success, it enters FWA's random lottery pool.
There are three core roles involved:
Creator
Prepares the entire NFT set and sets the price for each. Initially, the supporters' minting funds do not go directly to the creator; the creator earns gradually from the pool's transaction fees later.
Backer
Uses ETH equal to the set price to "back" this NFT. Then it is placed into FWA's lottery pool, which runs according to the lottery logic (either eventually obtaining the NFT or getting back 99% of the ETH plus FWA rewards).
Purchaser
People who usually spend money in the FWA pool to randomly draw NFTs. Upon winning, they have priority to choose: keep the NFT themselves or take the backer's ETH.
So, this gameplay essentially leverages the platform's own mechanism to embed the NFT issuance landscape within it.
There are quite a few details here:
1. This issuance is Launch 0, with the official team personally demonstrating how to play. The income mainly comes from the transaction fees generated by NFTs running within the FWA mechanism, but according to simulations and the official Creator Guide: the final amount the creator receives, large $SPCX's biggest competitor is coming
Claude's company is preparing to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August
And this fundraising may match SPCX's IPO. What does this mean?
There is another trillion-level investor estimated at 1.5-2 trillion
Imagine where so much money comes from? Besides large capital buying in
Many might sell some stocks to participate in new investments
When SPCX IPO'd, it rose from 135 to 160, new shares made a killing
If it were you, would you still hold SPCX at 135? Or sell?
Sell and then buy new ones, the return on investment is extremely cost-effective
Capital is not stupid; it flows where the money is made
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #ETH strong rally, short liquidations exceed $1.1 billion $BTC #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue? Prediction
$BTC surged to 72,000, up 11.8% in 24 hours. It had been consolidating between 64,000-65,000 for the past two months, and a big bullish candle pierced through directly.
Shorts were crushed. Touching 72,000 triggered $3.49 billion in liquidations, with shorts accounting for $2.92 billion; over $3.1 billion in short liquidations occurred within two days. During the two-month consolidation, short positions accumulated heavily, and the breakout triggered a chain of liquidations, with buying further pushing the price up.
Three catalysts ignited simultaneously:
The scale of US Treasury repo doubled, long-term bond yields declined, reducing the opportunity cost of holding BTC. The White House held an emergency meeting, with Trump and CEOs from Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, etc., urging the passage of crypto legislation by year-end; the market interpreted this as increased regulatory certainty. ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $1 billion for three consecutive days, with $517 million inflow on August 19 alone, the highest since May 4; these are real cash buy orders.
The key to holding above 72,000 lies in whether spot trading can keep up. Leverage-driven rallies require buy-side support; if spot buying is insufficient, profit-taking at high levels and re-accumulation of leverage will amplify the correction. On Polymarket, the probability of reaching 75,000 by the end of this month is only 6%. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？