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Brothers, we guessed it would rise, but we really didn't expect it to be this fierce! Let's stay calm first and clarify the real logic behind the BTC breakthrough of 70,000 and ETH reaching 2,300 in this wave 👇 1️⃣ The root cause is the weakening dollar: The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, the 30-year yield sharply fell from a high of 5.33%, and the dollar index plunged simultaneously. The liquidity gate loosened, and institutional funds were the first to sense the signal. 2️⃣ ETF continuous accumulation: The spot ETF recorded large net inflows for several consecutive days, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing nearly $500 million within two days. Smart money is still buying above 68,000; this scale cannot be supported by retail investors. 3️⃣ News triggers sentiment: The White House cryptocurrency summit, new SEC regulations, and the expected re-examination of the CLARITY Act—these three events combined have the market trading the narrative of the "U.S. crypto strategic reserve," and shorts were directly crushed. 4️⃣ Short squeeze intensifies: $1.6 billion liquidated in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $1.4 billion. After the price broke key levels, a chain of liquidations formed a typical short squeeze structure, rising to a level that makes you question reality. Friendly reminder: This kind of "skyrocketing" rapid rally is often hard to sustain. In the short term, don't chase highs or panic sell; watch the key levels—BTC must hold above 68,000 to have a chance to reach 75,000, and if it can't hold, it will retest 65,000. ETH's 2,000-2,080 range is the lifeline; this is the launch platform for this breakout, so be cautious if it falls below. The above is just a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice, please be rational At the close of the U.S. East Coast on August 20 (early morning Beijing time on August 21), the full text focuses on the storage industry chain analysis. 1. Overview of U.S. stock markets overnight: All three major indexes fell sharply with increased volume, with the Dow leading the decline marking the largest single-day drop in nearly two months. Two core suppressing factors: first, the Fed's July meeting minutes showed hawkish signals continuing to ferment, causing the market to reprice the probability of rate hikes within the year, and U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board; second, international oil prices continued to rise, breaking through $87, reigniting inflation stickiness concerns, compounded by weak guidance from retail leaders' earnings reports, leading to a comprehensive decline in market risk appetite. • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.32%, closed at 52758.12 points, down 704.93 points for the day • S&P 500 Index: -0.87%, closed at 7641.16 points; among the eleven major sectors, only the energy sector closed up against the trend, with industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary leading the decline • Nasdaq Composite Index: -1.00%, closed at 26067.78 points, down 263.31 points for the day; tech stocks generally pulled back, but the storage sector resisted the trend, hedging part of the losses • Volatility Index VIX: jumped to 18.2, indicating a significant rise in risk aversion • Trading characteristics: Large-cap trading volume increased 15% week-on-week, with funds fleeing from cyclical, financial, and consumer sectors; tech growth stocks' declines narrowed relatively, while the storage sector saw funds flowing in against the trend, showing clear structural resilience. Core market feature: value stocks' catch-up decline exceeded that of growth stocks, with a rapid style rotation in the market. The energy sector became the only safe haven due to rising oil prices; the storage sector leveraged its fundamental price increase logic BTC/ETH 8.21 Market Analysis Rebound Driving Forces Macro liquidity improvement (US repo expansion suppressing long bond yields) + rising regulatory expectations (Trump pushing the "Clear Act"), resonance triggered a violent surge of $BTC from 64,000 to 73,000. Essentially expectation-driven, not a fundamental reversal. On-chain and Market Structure Whales have net increased holdings by 43,000 BTC in the past 60 days, providing a capital base Spot trading volume hits a three-year low, retail investors absent, liquidity thin Perpetual funding rate soars to a 20-month high, long-short ratio 2.23 hits a yearly high Sentiment jumps from extreme fear (25) to greed (62), short-term pullback pressure accumulates ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to hit new lows, capital highly concentrated in Bitcoin, altcoins drained Risks and Strategy Real risk lies in September: Clear Act passage success rate less than 20% FOMC meeting also scheduled Current premium supported by policy expectations; if disappointed or Fed turns hawkish, pullback may exceed technical expectations. Short-term strategy: buy on dips with strict stop-loss. Deeper question: after expectations are realized, what will drive the market to continue rising? ---#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ $ETH $SNDK The president's words, the market's legs—but Congress holds the purse strings. Trump casually mentioned on X that "the U.S. government is discussing expanding its holdings of Bitcoin and crypto assets," and Bitcoin promptly broke through $71,500. The market voted with real money—after all, the U.S. government is already the world's largest sovereign Bitcoin holder, with about 328,000 BTC worth over $21 billion. But take a close look at Trump's original words: no implementation details, no funding source, no timeline. Why? Because the president doesn't control the money. The strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order Trump signed in March 2025 only allows acquiring Bitcoin through "budget-neutral" channels like forfeiture, fines, and donations. To conduct large-scale open market purchases, Congress must legislate and allocate funds. And bills like the BITCOIN Act, which proposes buying 200,000 BTC annually, have yet to become law. This routine is actually quite familiar: the White House sends signals to raise expectations, but the actual implementation gets stuck in Congress. The president can make promises, but the money always comes from Congress. Next time you hear "the government is going to buy coins," it’s worth asking—where is the money coming from? $BTC $ETH #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ Based on the historical pattern of the U.S. midterm elections BTC's optimal positioning window falls in October, with a high probability of starting an upward trend from early October The average maximum market drawdown before the November 3 election is about 16% Looking at the extended period since 1950, the Nasdaq has closed higher 12 months after every election day with a 100% win rate There has been no exception If you buy the S&P 500 on election day, the following year is almost guaranteed to be profitable with an average return of 18.6% This multi-decade cyclical pattern still holds strong reference value today So what we need to do now is wait for the market's final dip $CORE has experienced a short-term oversold rebound breaking through the extremely low range, but on-chain daily active users have recovered to 9,000 while TVL has dropped by 24%, creating a divergence. The trading momentum is still mainly driven by short-term speculative funds on exchanges rather than large institutional positions. On-chain details confirm the limitations of the chip structure. Although the network's average daily transactions recently remained between 48,000 and 54,000, the 30-day base layer gas revenue of the public chain is only $274, while ecosystem application fees reached $59,000. The 215-fold fee disparity reflects that transactions are overly concentrated on existing staking, lacking support from new external funds and high-frequency transfers. The driving forces behind this rally are, in order: oversold existing funds speculation, BTCFi sector premium transmission, and short-term speculative capital pushing prices up. The roadmap's plan to rely on ecosystem revenue for secondary market buybacks remains a mid-term goal, and unresolved token inflation pressure limits the upward price potential. The bullish scenario triggers if the price breaks through key resistance with sustained volume turnover and does not fall below the consolidation range during pullbacks. If protocol revenue continues to rise alongside cross-chain BTC capital inflows, the market will gradually absorb the historical overhead supply pressure above. The bearish scenario triggers if a volume surge with a long upper shadow appears at a high point or if volume rapidly shrinks. Given that the overall network TVL has not yet bottomed and buybacks have not been implemented, once chips are cashed out at highs, the price is prone to evolve into a downward continuation pattern within the main trend and refresh stage lows. Invalidation conditions depend on capital and fundamental anomalies. If the adjustment breaks below the previous bottom line directly, the oversold rebound logic fails; if on-chain transaction fees and actual cross-chain assets show exponential growth, the short-term speculative capital-driven logic will be reshaped. The key variables to watch over the next 7 days are the degree of volume cooperation at the breakout point, whether TVL can stabilize, and the target's resilience during BTC market pullbacks. #迈威尔获Google芯片协议，财报前AI订单受关注 #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？$CORE CORE Experiences a Bottom Movement: Is It an Oversold Recovery or a BTCFi Narrative Restart? After a long period of silence, CORE's market finally shows a rare upward movement. Many long-term holders have finally seen a bullish candle, the community is cheering, and some have even started celebrating the rebound with beer. However, on-chain data, token economics, and competitive landscape paint a very contradictory reality: users are returning, but TVL is declining; trading activity is warming up, yet fundamentals still face heavy burdens. Many tend to equate a bottom rebound directly with a trend reversal. For CORE, we need to separate market action from the underlying narrative. Contradictory on-chain data: Alive but not prosperous Recent on-chain statistics show that CORE network daily active users have gradually recovered from previous lows, reaching around 9,000 in mid-August, with a stable daily average of 48,000–54,000 transactions over 10 days, indicating on-chain interactions have not completely stopped. On the other hand, total locked value (TVL) has dropped about 24% from previous highs, showing a split scenario of rising users but shrinking locked assets. More intriguingly, the revenue structure: in 30 days, DeFi application fees in the ecosystem approached $59,000, while the underlying public chain's gas fees were only $274, meaning application layer fees are 215 times that of the base chain. This indicates real activity is concentrated in staking and DeFi applications, with few ordinary transfer transactions; the network has users but remains small in scale, protocol revenue is still limited, and it is far from supporting large-scale token buybacks. The project's 2026 roadmap has clearly shifted: no longer relying on block reward burns, it hopes to use real revenue generated by the BTCFi ecosystem to repurchase CORE on the secondary market, thereby alleviating token selling pressure. This concept is logical but depends on sustained ecosystem revenue growth, serving as a mid-term catalyst rather than an immediate benefit. Where does the current rally's driving force come from? 1. Oversold chip recovery CORE has retraced significantly from its historical highs, with prolonged decline accumulating many trapped holders, and the price is at historically low levels. As overall market risk appetite warms, existing funds choose oversold tokens to gamble on rebounds, a common oversold recovery pattern near bear market end. 2. Residual heat from BTCFi narrative CORE's core positioning is a Bitcoin sidechain, featuring Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, combining Bitcoin hash power with EVM compatibility. The narrative centers on BTCFi decentralized finance on Bitcoin. When the market re-hypes Bitcoin staking and liquid staking, the sector's heat transmits, giving CORE emotional premium. However, competition within the sector is fierce, with peers like Stacks and Babylon rapidly iterating, so it's not a monopoly. 3. Short-term speculative capital inflow, not large institutional accumulation From trading volume, this rally is mainly driven by short-term exchange funds, with no clear signs of large institutional addresses continuously accumulating. Speculative-driven rallies tend to rise fast and cash out quickly. Several harsh realities to face First, massive trapped holder pressure. Past declines have piled up layers of trapped chips above; rebounds to key levels trigger selling pressure release, with significant resistance at every step up. Second, token inflation pressure remains; the buyback mechanism is still at the roadmap stage, not yet widely implemented, so selling pressure is not fundamentally relieved. Third, the ecosystem lacks blockbuster applications. Although there are many DApps, none have yet attracted large-scale new BTC inflows; many interactions come from existing users repeatedly operating, with limited new external capital. Fourth, as a thematic token, it is highly dependent on the overall market. When BTC corrects, these high-volatility small-cap tokens often experience much larger pullbacks than mainstream coins. Two scenarios: Pulse rebound vs. trend reversal, watch three confirmation signals Many confuse whether this is a rebound within a downtrend or a true reversal. Focus on three objective signals rather than emotional judgment. 1. Volume confirmation: Uptrend must sustain volume expansion; if volume shrinks during rise, it is likely a battle among existing holders with doubtful sustainability; a high-volume long upper shadow after a spike often means funds are exiting on the rebound. 2. Key resistance holds: After breaking resistance in a short-term rebound, price should not quickly fall back to the previous range; during pullback, it should not create new lows. A new low after rebound is a typical downtrend continuation pattern. 3. Fundamental follow-through: On-chain protocol revenue steadily rises, BTC assets continuously cross-chain into the ecosystem, and buyback mechanisms are truly implemented. Price can lead fundamentals temporarily but cannot detach forever. Realistic thoughts for holders - For current holders: The rebound is welcome, but don't treat unrealized gains as realized profits. Set partial take-profit points; don't add heavy positions just because of one bullish candle to average down. The biggest mistake in oversold token rebounds is to see red and fantasize about a big bull market after being deeply trapped for a long time. - For those not yet in: Don't get swept up by community euphoria chasing highs. For small-cap tokens, it's better to miss out than make mistakes. If you want to participate, wait for pullback confirmation before evaluating. BTCFi is a sector worth long-term observation, but no matter how good the narrative, it requires product, revenue, and user growth to materialize. Celebrate the bullish candle, but keep wallet positions calm. The rebound is just the beginning, not the end.$ETH spot has pulled in 1 billion U in funds, leveraging about 25 billion U in contract funds, indicating that basically no one is selling spot. Unless the main force stops buying themselves, a pullback will occur. The premise for this pullback is that the main force has almost withdrawn their long positions in contracts or has started to take on most of the contract short positions. Otherwise, why would they stop buying spot? Just purely to support the shorts? As shorts, they don't even have enough spot holdings but still want to dump the market—it's simply a dream.X Layer's Exchange OS requires deployers to stake OKB in order to create trading venues or list trading products. This is a demand logic more valuable than "total scarcity." What needs to be observed next is not slogans, but the actual number of deployments and staking requirements. A factory worker's CORE gamble: a 6800 yuan salary, 200,000 trapped tokens, and a high-stakes bet on turning things around Yesterday, the factory paid wages, and I received 6800 yuan. Every worker knows that every penny is hard-earned from 12-hour shifts on the assembly line. After deducting money for cigarettes, meals with coworkers, and daily small expenses, there’s not much left. Thanks to the factory providing food and accommodation, I managed to save 800 dollars and bought 26,000 CORE tokens through C2C, staking them all on-chain as locked tokens, turning them into chips. I set a rule for myself: from now on, every month when I get paid, I will consistently invest 800 dollars in CORE. Most coworkers and strangers online don’t understand and mock me relentlessly. The market keeps bottoming out, the coin’s trend is weak, many have already exited, and they laugh at me for foolishly adding positions, saying I’m just catching a falling knife and wasting my effort. Only I understand my situation. I hold 200,000 CORE tokens bought at a high price early on, deeply trapped, numb to the floating losses. Since I’m already stuck, I might as well not cut losses and give up. Instead of crying and selling my hard-earned tokens at a loss, I prefer to dollar-cost average monthly to reduce my cost basis, slowly accumulate, patiently wait for a market cycle reversal, and gamble on an ordinary person’s chance to turn things around. Sometimes I feel wronged. I’m simply sharing my holdings and honest thoughts, but the comment section is full of doubts, accusing me of brainwashing and luring others to enter the market. But I myself am a victim standing guard at a high price, anxious and sleepless, bearing huge floating losses. I have never encouraged anyone to chase highs, only recorded my persistence, yet I receive cold sarcasm, which is disheartening. Many people dismiss CORE outright without spending time to understand its underlying narrative. As a key infrastructure in the BTCFi sector, it inherits Bitcoin’s security system while being compatible with EVM. SatPay is about to launch, the buyback and burn mechanism is ongoing, and institutions and whales are quietly accumulating tokens at low prices. The current long-term sideways consolidation feels more like a brutal shakeout, washing out weak floating tokens to prepare for the next rally. I have no background, no shortcuts, just daily labor in the workshop, with thick calluses on my hands from hard work. CORE is almost the only chance I have to make a big move. Others advise me to cut losses and leave, online sentiment keeps bearish, all hoping I’ll give up my low-price tokens. But I know that once I cut losses, all past losses, persistence, and monthly invested hard-earned money will truly be gone. I don’t chase short-term fluctuations, blocking out noisy external voices. It’s already tough for ordinary people to break through; since I’m in the game, I choose to fight to the end. Low-price dollar-cost averaging, locked staking, quietly building strength, patiently waiting for the bloom. I’m betting once, hoping that all the night shifts endured and sweat shed will one day pay off with principal and interest, completely breaking free from the assembly line cycle. ⚠️ Risk reminder: This is only a personal experience sharing and does not constitute investment advice $CORE #BTCFi 📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (August 21) After a nuclear explosion start by the bulls, momentum sharply collapsed, with 24-hour liquidations exceeding $260,000. The direction is clear but the strength has significantly narrowed... Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations 1 hour $16,200 $16,000 $225.78 4 hours $57,300 $57,100 $262.49 12 hours $148,800 $88,900 $59,900 24 hours $262,600 $168,600 $94,100 From the KAITO liquidation data: in 1 hour, bulls monopolized the market, with long liquidations 70.9 times that of shorts, amounting to $16,000. Bulls tentatively controlled the market with nuclear explosion intensity; in 4 hours, the bull multiple further soared, long liquidations crushed shorts with a ratio soaring to 217.5 times ($57,100 vs. $262.49), liquidation volume jumped to $57,100, bulls took over the game with an extreme posture; in 12 hours, bull momentum collapsed, long liquidations were only 1.48 times shorts, volume rose to $88,900. Although bulls still dominated, the ratio sharply dropped, approaching balance between longs and shorts; in 24 hours, bull momentum slightly rebounded, long liquidations at $168,600 vs. shorts at $94,100, bulls retained only a 1.79 times advantage, with total liquidations exceeding $260,000. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 56.6% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration, mainly concentrated in the first 12 hours. The bull dominance ratio surged from 70.9 times at 1 hour to an extreme 217.5 times at 4 hours, then collapsed to 1.48 times at 12 hours, and slightly rose to 1.79 times at 24 hours. Bull momentum followed an "inverted V-shaped reversal" trajectory—after a nuclear explosion start, it completely collapsed. Long and short forces returned from extreme tilt to near balance within 24 hours, signaling the squeeze rally is nearing its end. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; although the direction still favors bulls, the strength has severely weakened, avoid blindly chasing longs. 🔥 Market Indicator | August 21 Three hot topics today point to the same theme: liquidity valve loosening, policy signal divergence, and consumer IP iteration—three forces resonating on the same trading day. ₿ BTC Breaks $72,000: Record Short Squeeze, but "Fake Breakout" Controversy Remains On August 20, Bitcoin continued its rally, breaking $72,000, reaching an intraday high of $72,830, the highest since June. In the past 24 hours, approximately $2.75 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated, with Bitcoin accounting for about $1.7 billion—this is the largest full-market short squeeze recorded by CoinGlass since 2021. Total network liquidations reached $3.34 billion, with shorts accounting for $3 billion. However, there is intense debate over the sustainability of the rally. Peter Schiff, a long-time Bitcoin critic, called it a "fake breakout," attributing it to a one-time operation by the U.S. Treasury doubling long-term bond repurchases. Bulls argue that demand in spot and perpetual futures markets simultaneously turned positive for the first time since the historical peak in October 2025—if this can be maintained for another month, it would justify the start of a new bull market. Spot ETFs attracted over $1 billion inflows from Monday to Wednesday, completely reversing last week's nearly $390 million outflows. Short covering accelerated the breakout, but whether Bitcoin can hold above $70,000 increasingly depends on the sustainability of spot and ETF demand. 🏛️ Fed July Minutes: Hawkish Votes Outnumbered, Market Prices in the Opposite The Fed's July meeting minutes released on August 19 showed the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the hawkish forces far exceeded the three official dissenters—the minutes revealed several participants supported a 25 basis point hike at this meeting; many believed further tightening might be necessary if inflation does not decline. Yet, the market is pricing in a rate cut. After the minutes, the market assigned an 81.2% probability of a 25 basis point Fed cut in September. The minutes did not mention any support for rate cuts—the more hawkish the minutes, the more dovish the market, because the market prices not "who voted no," but the fact that the economy is slowing. 🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU Slows, Star People Surges 580% to Take Over On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 half-year report: revenue of 17.17 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year; adjusted net profit of 5.16 billion yuan. Revenue in China surged 47.3% year-on-year to 12.2 billion yuan. The IP landscape is undergoing drastic restructuring. THE MONSTERS series, featuring LABUBU, generated 4.45 billion yuan, still the top, but down 7.5% year-on-year, with revenue share dropping from 34.7% to 26%. The new IP "Star People" generated 2.65 billion yuan, surging 580.6% year-on-year, becoming the second largest IP. LABUBU slows down, Star People takes over—Pop Mart's IP lifecycle management is facing its toughest test. Plush product line has become the largest growth engine, with revenue up 60% year-on-year to 9.82 billion yuan, accounting for 57.2% of total revenue. The board announced a share repurchase plan of 2 to 5 billion yuan. 💎 Summary Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin broke $72,000 with a record $2.75 billion short squeeze, but the "fake breakout" controversy remains—the key is whether spot buying can continue; KAITO contract market bull dominance ratio crashed from an extreme 217.5 times to 1.79 times, squeeze momentum collapsed sharply, total liquidations exceeded $260,000, long and short forces returned from extreme tilt to near balance within 24 hours; the more hawkish the Fed minutes, the more dovish the market, as economic slowdown signals outweigh inflation concerns; Pop Mart's LABUBU slows while Star People surges 580%, the IP landscape is undergoing a brutal old-to-new transition. When liquidity, policy, and consumption forces resonate simultaneously—the market is aggressively repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ 8.21 Gold Morning Review Overnight gold tested the bottom and stabilized, closing with a high-level oscillation pattern, currently quoted around 4521. From the cycle structure perspective, the 4-hour moving averages maintain a strong bullish arrangement, with the price holding steady within the recent upward range. The major bullish trend structure remains intact; after a round of rise in the 1-hour cycle, it entered a sideways consolidation. The MACD indicator lines are gradually converging, with bullish and bearish momentum temporarily balanced. There is no clear short-term direction, so focus on range breakout choices during the day. Resistance levels: 4540-4545 Support levels: 4500, 4485 Trading strategy Prioritize buying on dips; if the price stabilizes after pulling back to 4500-4485, consider long positions targeting 4535-4545. A breakout could lead to new highs. Note: Silk Road is for reference only, market conditions may change at any time, please manage risk carefully $XAU For every $1 fee collected by Hyperliquid, about 70 cents directly convert into protocol revenue; whereas Uniswap, the leader in track fees, has a ratio of only about 7%. Below are the top ten DEXs ranked by "fee-to-revenue conversion rate" (data source: DefiLlama, real-time data as of August 2026): - $DYDX: 100% ($327K → $327K) - $AERO: 75% ($4.59M → $3.45M) - $HYPE: 70% ($43.13M → $30.07M) - $GMX: 37% ($3.12M → $1.15M) - $CAKE: 34% ($24.79M → $8.41M) - $CRV: 33% ($2.66M → $875K) - $JUP: 24% ($58.11M → $13.93M) - $RAY: 16% ($5.69M → $887K) - $MET: 14% ($11.11M → $1.51M) - $UNI: 7% ($81.2M → $5.75M) This list reveals a commonly overlooked differentiation in the DEX track: Uniswap still leads by a wide margin in absolute fee scale, but its conversion rate is the weakest among the top ten. Most of the fees paid by users flow to liquidity providers, with little retained by the protocol itself The phrase "wallet got hacked" is almost always inaccurate; the wallet app itself is rarely the target of an attack. There are actually four scenarios: 1. Key leakage. The mnemonic phrase is screenshotted, stored in the cloud, entered into a phishing page, or the device is infected with a trojan. Characteristic: all assets on all chains are emptied at once. 2. Authorization abuse. Your key hasn't leaked; you yourself signed a transaction giving a contract unlimited allowance. Characteristic: only that specific token disappears, the rest remain intact, and it often happens weeks later. 3. Using a fake client. Fake official website or counterfeit app. A sign to identify this: the app suddenly restarts by itself and asks you to enter your mnemonic phrase—that's fake. 4. The key generation itself is flawed. You did nothing wrong, but the seed can be derived from the start. Even cold storage, never connected to the internet, can be emptied. Only in scenarios one and three is the key actually taken. In the second, the key is still safely in your hands; in the fourth, the key was never really secret. Distinguishing these has practical significance: if you mistakenly revoke authorization, switching wallets is useless—you must revoke on-chain; if the generation is flawed, switching devices is useless—you must change the seed. Misjudging leads to wasted remedies. Which one have you encountered? #walletsecurity #privatekey #authorization #mnemonicphrase Macro and Market: • After the Treasury's backstop, the market began to verify the effect After the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, BTC broke through $70,000 within two days, and risk assets generally warmed up. The core logic of market trading remains: the Treasury has started intervening in long-term interest rates, and financial conditions have marginally improved. Trump's promotion of the Clarity Act and the White House Crypto meeting further strengthened risk appetite. BTC once surged to the $71,000–$73,000 range. However, it should be noted that last night the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose back to around 5.25%, indicating that the bond market has not fully trusted the Treasury's plan. Some institutions have begun to question whether expanding repurchases can truly suppress long-term rates. • The Fed minutes were not as dovish as the market imagined The latest FOMC minutes show that some officials still worry about inflation risks, with even voices supporting further rate hikes. In other words, the market has currently received a backstop from the Treasury, not an official shift to easing from the Fed. Therefore, the most important question today is: after BTC stands above $70,000, will spot funds continue to follow through? • Yesterday's rise was strong but still had obvious short squeeze elements Yesterday, the crypto market experienced a rare large-scale short liquidation since 2021, with market statistics showing about $3 billion worth of shorts liquidated. So yesterday's rise cannot be simply understood as a full institutional return. What needs to be observed is whether spot funds are willing to continue supporting above $70,000 after shorts are forced to buy back.The latest July Federal Reserve FOMC minutes have been released. The voting result was 9 votes in favor of keeping the current interest rate unchanged, while three members—Logan, Harker, and Kashkari—voted against, all proposing a 25 basis point hike. The minutes reveal that most attending officials agree on pausing rate hikes, but several members expressed a tendency toward tightening. If subsequent inflation indicators fail to continue their downward trend, the Federal Reserve does not rule out further monetary policy tightening. This is also the most internally divided minutes since 2026, with the number of dissenting votes reaching a new high in recent years. After this meeting, the CPI and employment-related data released have generally been weak. As a result, market expectations for a rate hike in September have dropped from over 70% to around 36%; the probability of maintaining the current rate has risen to 67%, with some discrepancies in pricing data from different market instruments. Another noteworthy new signal in these minutes is the official emphasis on AI infrastructure financing, AI sector stock valuations, and financial risks arising from U.S. Treasury market volatility—expressions rarely seen in past meeting records. Looking at the $BTC market: the tone of the minutes is hawkish, but the subsequent economic data released sent dovish signals, and the market clearly prefers to trust the direction indicated by the data. Bitcoin surged above $72,000, a direct response to improved liquidity expectations. Actually, the disagreement among officials is not the main point; the real core is to see which direction the market ultimately chooses to price in. I've said enough; the rest is for everyone to ponder. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC $ETH $SNDK What’s on the White House desk isn’t policy, but a midgame chess score; Trump just pushed a visible pawn, but the real killer move is hidden in his yet-to-be-played right wing. When he said "substantial amount," the vague tone in his mouth was like a grandmaster deliberately reserving a variation after the opening. Purchase size, timetable, formal authorization—none of these three were given. It’s not that the government forgot to write them down; they are waiting for the opponent to reveal their formation first. Chess theory says that pulling the queen out to the front line too early will get you killed on the longest diagonal; only by placing the CLARITY Act on the congressional chessboard does this long diagonal truly connect the king’s wing. And the so-called prediction markets and emerging technologies are just backup clocks on the side of the board: they don’t directly participate in this game but change how the players judge the timing. BTC piercing 69,000 roughly equals a rook finally occupying an open file in the midgame. The five-month downtrend line is trampled underfoot, sounding like a "check," but it’s only the beginning of spatial advantage. ETH rising in sync is just bishops on the same color squares forming a firepower line—important, but far from a checkmate structure. True players don’t cheer at this moment; they shift their gaze to the yet unopened squares on the rear wing. What is the real move order? First, push the "strategic reserve" pawn two squares, then play a seemingly bland move with "stablecoin legislation," and finally enclose the rear wing with a "central bank digital currency ban"—these three moves together form a sacrifice setup: you can’t see who pays the price now, but after these three steps, you’ll see the opponent’s king has no escape. Policy signals are never news; the news is the quietly advanced variation line behind the signal. Players all understand: the most costly thing isn’t the sacrifice, but the ambiguous threat. Trump left "substantial amount" hanging in midair like a bishop suspended awkwardly in the opponent’s half. Bears fixate on this hanging piece and must constantly reinforce their pawn structure; bulls treat it as the initiative, preemptively mobilizing their peripheral forces. The game hasn’t reached the endgame, but the clocks have already tilted because of this one phrase—not the time numbers changing, but the rhythm being controlled by him. However, the White House summit was just a "finger tap on the table" before the match, not a move. No size, no deadline, no authorization—this means the situation remains in the commentator’s calculation grid: if Congress doesn’t confirm on the CLARITY main variation, then the so-called strategic reserve is ultimately a soft move. A soft move doesn’t lose the game immediately but exposes tiny cracks in the previous setup; masters are the species that dig out victory inch by inch along these cracks. I’m not looking at this move. I’m looking at the endgame twenty years from now: once the government becomes a giant elephant, who can still trade pieces with it on the open file? #trumpeyesmorebtc $ETH ⚠️This article is only a market information review and does not serve as any trading guidance. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile, and leveraged trading can amplify losses, so strict risk control is essential. After a rapid surge, Ethereum has completely broken free from the sideways consolidation range that lasted for weeks. The short-term rally is not driven by a single positive factor gradually pushing prices up, but rather a confluence of macro expectations, spot buying, and derivatives short covering that together fuel the market movement. Let's first outline the underlying drivers of this rally. Liquidity expectations are the foundation for the market's initiation. News of overseas expansion in long-term bond repurchase programs was interpreted by the market as a sign of potential future liquidity easing. The US dollar index weakened, and risk assets collectively rebounded, with ETH strengthening in tandem with gold and Bitcoin. After the market started moving, the derivatives market experienced a large-scale short squeeze, with many short positions triggering forced liquidations consecutively. Passive buying further accelerated price increases, amplifying the single-day gains. Institutional funds have shown a clear wavering attitude. Spot ETFs sometimes see large net inflows, and at other times face capital outflows, without a sustained uninterrupted inflow trend. Leading asset management institutions are still pushing for ETF applications to increase staking yields. Once approved, this will enhance institutional appeal for Ethereum allocation, but there remain many uncertainties on the regulatory front, and approval timelines could be delayed at any time. On-chain staking volume remains high, with a large amount of tokens locked in staking contracts, and exchange circulating supply continues to shrink. The tightening of circulating supply supports price increases during upward phases, but if the market collectively sells off, insufficient liquidity will amplify the impact.Steel piled on the dock has rusted, the scaffolding hasn't been dismantled yet, but the "financial pillar" on the blueprint has quietly had its load-bearing specifications changed. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury raised the liquidity repo cap on 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion, like temporarily reinforcing a sinking tower with a steel hoop — it looks stable on the surface, with the 30-year yield sliding from 5.29% to 5.18%, but that doesn't mean the foundation has hardened; it's just that you've stepped twice more on the pouring layer. Don't fool yourself into thinking this is a rate cut or quantitative easing. Repo is about clearing the pipeline, not changing the water pressure. Have you ever seen an architect replace a concrete strength report with a plumbing repair order in structural calculations? The "repo scaffolding" in the Treasury market only addresses the current wobble; what truly determines whether the tower can be topped off are the three piles in the foundation: deficit size, new debt supply, and inflation expectations. No one dares to change the load-bearing reports of these three piles—they're still buried at the bottom of the drawer. The current yield decline is just the exterior paint shining briefly in the sunset. When the October construction season begins, the tower crane for new debt issuance will lift heavy steel again, and yields will rise again at that point. What suppresses stocks, gold, and Bitcoin is not a day's volatility but the long-term settlement curve of the entire financial building—that's structural, and no temporary reinforcement can change its slope. As for XAVGO, this kind of token asset is more like a concept building with a highly refined blueprint. The renderings are full of glass curtain walls, sky gardens, and parametric facades, but what you need to ask is how deep the foundation piles are driven, how many waterproof layers the basement has, and whether it has passed wind tunnel tests. In the current market environment, it has bounced a few centimeters along with the temporary scaffolding of Treasury yields, but this is not structural safety; it's just that when the wind blows across the floor, all hanging objects will sway. Don't mistake scaffolding for load-bearing walls, don't mistake temporary pumping for structural topping out. I'm staring at the blueprint marked "construction node until 2026," the concrete is still curing, and anyone who now beats their chest claiming the load-bearing capacity is sufficient is substituting renderings for structural calculations. #treasuryupsbuybacks The spot price of the memory sector has corrected, showing a deep divergence from ETF capital flows, with derivatives leverage and spot support intertwined. The core market contradiction lies in whether the downward price can complete liquidity clearing under strong capital support. $DRAM spot prices have corrected by 28% over the past two months, pushing short-term chips into the liquidation range. However, the ETF's AUM has counter-trended, growing 20% to reach $28 billion, absorbing $12 billion in net inflows over 8 consecutive weeks, changing the previous market judgment of liquidity exhaustion in the downtrend. Liquidity injection from derivatives and leverage tools has become the primary driving force in the current market. The 2x long tool $RAM has attracted a cumulative net inflow of $893 million since its launch on June 24, with continuous high-leverage capital entry suppressing the destructive power of spot selling pressure on prices. In the bullish scenario, if spot buying continues to absorb selling pressure and $RAM leverage capital does not experience large-scale redemptions, capital stacking will push prices higher. This scenario requires monitoring whether $DRAM can maintain a weekly net inflow level of $1.5 billion; a failure signal would be a rapid withdrawal of $RAM liquidity causing a break in the leverage chain. In the bearish scenario, if end-user recovery falls short of expectations or overall market liquidity contracts, high-leverage bottom-fishing capital will face a risk of long squeeze. The trigger condition for this scenario is a concentrated stampede of the $893 million cumulative inflow in $RAM, with the ETF discount/premium indicator as a variable to watch. The failure signal is spot prices stabilizing accompanied by accelerated $DRAM capital inflows. The overall failure signal of this projection lies in a trend decline in $DRAM's $28 billion AUM scale. As long as the $12 billion level of sedimented capital does not withdraw, downward prices will find it difficult to break through the liquidity defense line formed by capital bottoming. The key variables to observe in the next 7 days are whether the net inflow trend of $RAM capital slows down and whether the weekly data of continuous net inflows in $DRAM is interrupted. #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 Ethereum's Comeback Journey: 4 Lessons for Ordinary People ⚠️Content is only a historical review of the sector and does not constitute any investment advice Many only know that ETH is the second largest by market cap, but few realize it has faced multiple near-collapse moments. From a whitepaper written by a teenager, it has stumbled and grown into the foundational base of the entire Web3. Understanding its ups and downs is more important than simply betting on price movements. 1. Germination: An Undervalued Experimental Project In 2013, 19-year-old Vitalik wrote the Ethereum whitepaper, proposing the concept of a world computer: Bitcoin could only transfer value, while Ethereum could run smart contracts, enabling blockchain to support various applications. In 2014, a crowdfunding campaign exchanged Bitcoin for ETH. Most of the Bitcoin community was skeptical, thinking the new project was too abstract and overly ambitious. In July 2015, the mainnet launched with very few early developers. It was just a niche technical experiment without large-scale applications, prices were low, and few recognized its future potential. 2. Life-or-Death Crisis: Hacker Theft in the First Year Nearly Ended It In 2016, the major security incident with The DAO occurred, where hackers exploited contract vulnerabilities to steal 3.6 million ETH, worth tens of millions of dollars at the time. The market panicked, and the coin price was halved. The community erupted in debate: since blockchain pursues immutability, should there be a hard fork to roll back transactions and recover losses? After debate, the vast majority chose a hard fork to retrieve the stolen assets, which also led to the split creating Ethereum Classic (ETC). This was Ethereum's darkest hour, with widespread skepticism and many declaring the project dead, but the community survived the governance crisis and lived on. 3. First Boom: ICO Bubble, Instant Fame (2017) The ERC-20 token standard was born, and countless new projects issued tokens on Ethereum. The ICO wave swept the entire crypto market. ETH surged from single digits, firmly establishing itself as the second largest cryptocurrency. But the bubble burst quickly. The 2018 bear market arrived, many ICO projects went to zero, ETH plummeted 90% from its peak, network congestion and high gas fees were magnified, and criticism flooded back. 4. Bear Market Consolidation: Bubble Fades, Real Ecosystem Growth (2018-2020) With the bull market bubble gone and speculative funds leaving, developers stayed to focus on building. DeFi began to sprout, with lending and decentralized exchanges launching; NFT standards took shape. Though outsiders still complained about Ethereum's slowness and high fees, the underlying infrastructure quietly iterated, preparing for the next big market cycle. 5. Two Major Narratives Ignite, Leading to Historic Highlights (2020-2021) 1. DeFi Summer: lending, swaps, and liquidity mining exploded, with massive capital flowing on-chain; 2. NFT wave: CryptoKitties and profile picture NFTs went viral, bringing Ethereum into the public eye. EIP-1559 launched, implementing a fee burn mechanism, giving ETH deflationary properties, and the price hit an all-time high of $4,878. 6. Epic Upgrade: The Merge, Completing the Shift from Mining to Staking (2022) After years of work, The Merge was completed, fully ending GPU mining and switching to PoS staking consensus, reducing energy consumption by 99%, sharply cutting ETH issuance, and solidifying the deflation narrative. The upgrade process was not smooth, with multiple delays and strong miner opposition, but it was implemented under great pressure. Subsequent Cancun upgrades pushed Layer 2 scaling solutions, addressing the long-standing high fee issue. 7. Review: Ethereum's Comeback and Lessons for Ordinary People 1. No one is invincible; even great projects face multiple near-death experiences. ETH endured hacker attacks, bear market crashes, and upgrade delays, not rising steadily but surviving crisis after crisis. 2. True value comes from the ecosystem, not mere hype. Its strength lies in DeFi, NFT, stablecoins, Layer 2, and thousands of developers continuously building together, not a single concept. 3. Bull markets are results, not starting points. The surges in 2017 and 2021 came from years of technical consolidation during bear markets. Many only see the later glory and overlook the long, unnoticed early struggles. 4. Technical roadmaps are never smooth; upgrades will be delayed and controversial. Focus on long-term implementation results, don’t be scared off by short-term negatives or blindly swayed by hype. ETH’s current status did not come out of nowhere. It shows us: sector narratives matter, but the underlying logic of long-term comeback is surviving crises, continuous iteration, and ecosystem growth. $ETH #Ethereum #Web3 Bitcoin surged 15% in four days, and Ethereum was even more aggressive, shooting up 22%. Damn, the group chat went wild again, shouting loudly about a bull market comeback. Technically, there's really no room for criticism; the daily MA200, RSI, and MACD all look good. The macro environment is strangely favorable too: inflation is down, ISM is up, and the Russell 2000 hit new highs. Short-term bullish, I agree. But I just feel something's off. In July and August 2022, it was exactly the same. A 40% rally with everyone shouting bull market, but then in November it dropped 22% in one week. The FTX crash was an excuse, but even before that, the confirmed reversal in Q4 was brutal and unchanged. In this space, when everyone is collectively bullish, it's often when the knives are being sharpened. Right now, I only hold a position in $OKB. It's not that I don't like $BTC, but I'm afraid of being spun around by a fake breakout. 67K (the top of the August sideways box, now considered a retest level) is the key: if it holds above, this rally can keep going with the music and dance; if it breaks, no excuses, it's a false signal, and you need to run faster than anyone else. The four-year cycle thing, Bitcoin has never broken it. Conclusion? Cautiously bullish. I also want it to fly straight to 1 million, but after several bull and bear cycles, impulsiveness basically equals suicide. I'm lightly holding for now, waiting for stability before adding more. If you want to rush in, remember the 67K hurdle—if it breaks, don't be stubborn, don't say I didn't warn you. (PS: The above is all my personal speculation and does not constitute investment advice) #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ This round of BTC, ETH, SOL collectively forced a violent short squeeze, with mainstream coins rising in turn and altcoins broadly increasing. But $CORE, which focuses on the BTCFi Bitcoin ecosystem narrative, completely missed the rally and seriously lagged behind. Clearly the sector that benefits most from the Bitcoin bull market, why doesn't it rise when the market comes? It's not that the market hasn't arrived, but the chip distribution, model, ecosystem, competition, and capital logic are all constrained. 1. Extremely poor chip structure: trapped positions + continuous inflation, unable to rise and afraid to rise The biggest fatal flaw of CORE is that selling pressure is always greater than buying pressure. - Total supply 2.1 billion, currently only 60% circulating, the remaining shares continuously mined, team linear unlocking, inflation constantly outputting new chips. - Historical high of 6.47 USD, down over 99%, with a massive amount of heavily trapped positions piled up above. Any slight rebound triggers mass unlocking and dumping, every rally is crushed back to the original state. - Small market cap and low liquidity, large funds dare not enter: if they get in, they can't get out. Institutions and quant funds basically avoid it, no incremental funds to support. 2. Top-tier narrative, but on-chain data completely lags behind CORE's story is very perfect: Bitcoin Layer 2, BTC staking, lending, liquid staking, SatPay payments, solid BTCFi underlying infrastructure. But the market now doesn't speculate on expectations, only on actual implementation: - On-chain native TVL is weak, most assets are cross-chain migrations, no real ecological sedimentation. - Lacks phenomenally popular applications, user base, retention, and activity are all weak. - Protocol buybacks just starting, volume too small, cannot offset unlocking selling pressure at all. In short: the story is fully told, data hasn't caught up, sentiment is overextended, value vacuum. 3. Intense competition within the BTCFi sector, CORE is no longer the only choice After BTC became the absolute main line this round, the sector is fully competitive. Stacks, Babylon, Rootstock all divert funds: - Stacks: native BTC staking, direct BTC rewards, highest recognition in the native Bitcoin community. - Babylon: focuses on Bitcoin Restaking narrative, very strong capital preference. - CORE's dual staking mechanism requires locking tokens to earn yields, less attractive to retail and native BTC users compared to competitors. Sector dividends are divided, funds no longer cluster solely around CORE. 4. Bull market is not universal rise, but extreme siphoning This rally is driven by policy + ETF + short liquidation forced short squeeze. Incremental funds in the market are limited, prioritizing BTC, ETH, SOL with high consensus, high liquidity, and strongest certainty. Coins with small narratives, weak ecosystems, and poor chips are directly drained by the market. Bull markets also have an 80/20 split: the strong get stronger, the weak continue sideways. When will CORE have a turnaround rally? Only waiting for three signals, all indispensable: 1. Overall rotation and inflow in the BTCFi sector, collective sector activation; 2. Real explosive growth in TVL, protocol revenue, user data, buyback strength sufficient to offset selling pressure; 3. Fully digesting high-level trapped positions, unlocking selling pressure slows down. Risk reminder Sector logic is fine, but token model, chip structure, and ecosystem shortcomings are hard flaws. Missing out in a bull market and underperforming the market is normal, do not heavily bet solely on narrative, wait for dual confirmation of data and capital before looking for opportunities. $CORE $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ The earnings season continues to bring highlights. Recently, Xiaomi's full ecosystem performance for people, cars, and homes just concluded, and now POPMART's half-year report has officially been released. Next week, the market will await Nvidia's results to see if the AI sector can continue to burn money for expansion. At first glance, POPMART's half-year report data looks decent, but a closer breakdown makes it hard to confidently take a bullish stance. In the first half of the year, total revenue was ¥17.17 billion, up 23.8% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to the parent company only grew by 10.1%. Revenue is still pushing forward, but profitability is clearly lagging behind. Evaluating this company requires more than just focusing on blind box sales volume; profit margin levels, inventory turnover efficiency, and overseas market expansion effectiveness all need to be considered. The IP landscape is undergoing a clear shift. The once extremely popular LABUBU has cooled off, while Star People has surged nearly sixfold year-on-year. On the positive side, the company has not placed all its bets on a single hit product; six IPs have already surpassed ¥1 billion in revenue, proving the internal IP incubation system has solid capabilities. However, risks are also prominent, as revenue from the Asia-Pacific and Americas overseas segments has declined, and current growth is almost solely supported by the domestic market. Star People taking over the traffic baton does not mean it can replicate the LABUBU miracle, nor will overseas business naturally return to a high-growth trajectory. $POPMART Political statements combined with the CFTC roadmap have raised compliance expectations for $HYPE, but the trading focus is shifting from risk appetite-driven to position battles based on the implementation of detailed rules. Currently, the market has undergone continuous stimulation from political statements and regulatory roadmaps, and is re-evaluating the compliance space for on-chain derivatives protocols. In terms of driving factors, the effectiveness of specific regulatory implementation clauses outweighs earlier political attention, while the short-term release of risk appetite depends on the speed of digesting high-leverage positions. From the event risk transmission mechanism perspective, the CFTC's plan to study including unregistered exchanges under regulation and allowing compliant leveraged trading has increased market risk appetite in the short term; however, if the detailed rules lack progress, the high-level accumulated leveraged positions are prone to liquidation and drawdowns amid liquidity changes. Upside scenario: If the CFTC further issues specific registration processes and margin trading rules for on-chain protocols and unregistered exchanges, the realization of compliance expectations will attract medium- to long-term capital to build positions, driving sustained risk appetite growth. The trigger for this scenario is the announcement of specific compliance details, and the invalidation signal is policy stagnation causing profit-taking exits. Downside scenario: If regulators only maintain framework research without substantive clauses, the previously policy-driven high positions will face compression, and risk appetite will quickly cool down. The trigger for this scenario is no new rules implemented during the regulatory window, and the invalidation signal is an unexpected breakthrough in compliance pilot programs. When compliance costs are too high or regulatory authority divisions conflict, the market's pricing logic for compliance premiums will become invalid. The most important observation variable in the next 7 days is whether the CFTC will release specific registration and margin rules for unregistered exchanges and on-chain protocols. #迈威尔获Google芯片协议，财报前AI订单受关注 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 In the past 24 hours, about $366 million worth of ETH short positions were liquidated. This big bullish candle on ETH was driven both by capital inflow and obvious short squeezes. It's best to wait for the forced liquidation buying pressure to subside before building a position, and observe whether the spot market continues to support, rather than just looking at the one-day price increase. The market in the past two days superficially shows altcoins and DOGE both rising, but the core is still Bitcoin. When BTC moves, the market's risk appetite returns. It's not just a simple rise in one candlestick; it's signaling to capital: mainstream assets have buyers, and shorts are starting to cover. So capital spills over from BTC to ETH, then spreads to more elastic coins, and DOGE naturally becomes the most sentiment-sensitive group. DOGE has risen well this round, but I don't think it suddenly has a much stronger fundamental basis. It's more that the market has entered a phase willing to pay for high volatility, high sentiment, and high propagation. BTC stabilizes, and DOGE has room to perform; once BTC weakens, DOGE usually falls faster than the broader market. So don't view DOGE's rise alone as a new cycle signal. It's more like a mirror of sentiment: when everyone starts chasing DOGE, it means the market is no longer satisfied with earning certainty but is seeking higher odds. The market can be optimistic, but don't get carried away with the pace. What really matters to watch is whether Bitcoin can hold steady and whether capital continues to flow from BTC to a broader range of altcoins $BTC $DOGE (This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)🚨 REMINDER: Prior $BTC cycles bottomed 364–406 days after the cycle high. We’re only around day 318, with Bitcoin still down far less than at previous cycle bottoms. If the 4-year cycle continues to rhyme, history suggests the final bottom could still be 7–13 weeks away. With retail now flipping bullish after this pump, one more major flush could still be incoming. $BTC Yesterday Trump specifically mentioned HYPE, and today the CFTC Chairman has really started to pave the way. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig recently announced the "New Frontier of Finance" roadmap, explicitly instructing staff to study: using existing authority to establish a new market structure for crypto assets, allowing existing institutions, and even currently unregistered crypto exchanges, the opportunity to be brought under CFTC regulation in the future, providing compliant leverage and margin trading. What’s even more noteworthy is that the CFTC is preparing to communicate directly with on-chain finance protocol developers to study how these protocols can operate legally in the U.S. I think this news is especially worth paying attention to for $HYPE. The reason is simple: yesterday the market was trading on Trump’s statement that they are "studying how to make Hyperliquid legal and compliant in the U.S."; today it has progressed to the CFTC Chairman publicly giving regulatory implementation directions. Put simply: yesterday was a political statement, today a regulatory implementation path is emerging. Of course, this does not mean Hyperliquid has been approved to enter the U.S., nor does it guarantee that HYPE will continue to rise. But if the CFTC later announces specific registration, compliant trading, and on-chain protocol regulatory rules, HYPE’s narrative could shift from mere "policy hype" to genuine U.S. compliance expectations. I’m not in a rush to chase daily price fluctuations now; the most important thing going forward is to watch whether the CFTC continues to provide specific rules. $HYPE $BTC #$SPCX $ETH $SNDK have been holding for almost four months, and today I looked in the mirror and noticed another patch of hair missing. I'm not here to complain, but to clearly explain how this trade turned from a “buying the dip” into a “giving away money” situation, leaving a mark for myself. First, $SPCX: The initial logic was simple—Elon Musk said rockets are great, space narrative + launch orders, so I thought a dip was just a pullback to buy more. But the daily chart formed a classic descending channel, with lower highs and lower lows all the way down. Every 4-hour rebound to the descending trendline + 20EMA got pushed down. The weekly chart looks more like a bearish continuation, with increasing trapped positions above, resistance near the previous high/neckline XX area. Unless it breaks through there, the bearish structure remains. Plus, with US Treasury yields repeatedly high, stocks relying on narratives to support valuation are the easiest to get valuation-killed. $ETH: I was betting on rate cut expectations + upgrade rally, but the July FOMC minutes came out 9-3, showing officials still divided on rate hikes; the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repos, 30-year Treasury yields fell from highs, and risk assets got drained together. After ETH broke key moving averages on the daily, every rebound to previous low conversion points/midline XX met resistance. The 4-hour chart shows a weak consolidation structure; once support below breaks, leveraged positions are on liquidation countdown. $SNDK: The storage price hike cycle isn’t over, but SanDisk is volatile at highs, valuation divergence intensifies. I chased the “breakout” after earnings, but it turned into a high-volume long upper shadow, daily bearish engulfing pattern, breaking previous highs then pulling back—according to the 2B rule, this is a false breakout/reversal signal. Resistance is right at the previous high’s huge volume candle area XX. Bottom line, it’s not that I can’t read the structure, it’s that I don’t execute. I set stop losses but then cancel them, always thinking “just hold a bit longer and it’ll come back,” but days turn into weeks, weeks into months, almost four months. The first rule of trading: cut losses, let profits run. I did the exact opposite—held losses stubbornly, ran from profits at the slightest gain, even borrowed money and took loans to hold positions, with interest hurting more than losses. Now my head hurts badly, I can’t sleep, and my hair is almost gone. It’s not that I don’t know my mistakes, it’s that I know but can’t fix them—that’s the most rookie mistake. I’m not posting this to suggest anyone copy my trades, but to remind myself: if you can’t even hit your stop loss, don’t talk about having a plan. Don’t be like me. 📊 $HYPE Contract Liquidation Update (August 21) Bears gradually dominate the market, nearly balanced at 12 hours, a second surge at 24 hours, with cumulative liquidations surpassing $8.37 million... Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations 1 hour $332,300 $104,000 $321,900 4 hours $641,300 $229,000 $412,200 12 hours $2,584,200 $1,161,300 $1,422,900 24 hours $8,371,300 $2,354,000 $6,017,300 From the HYPE liquidation data: at 1 hour, bears crushed bulls with a ratio of 30.9 times, volume at $321,900, showing strong bear control; at 4 hours, bear momentum collapsed, bears were only 1.8 times the bulls, liquidation volume rose to $412,200, bear advantage sharply shrank, bulls and bears nearly balanced; at 12 hours, bear advantage almost disappeared, bears were only 1.2 times bulls, liquidation volume surged to $1,422,900, bulls and bears nearly tied; at 24 hours, bears surged again with $6,017,300 in liquidations versus bulls' $2,354,000, bears 2.6 times bulls, cumulative liquidations exceeded $8.37 million. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for only 30.9% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration—new liquidations in the last 12 hours reached $5,787,100, with bears regaining strength in the latter half of 24 hours to trigger a second surge. The bear crush ratio dropped from 30.9 times at 1 hour to 1.8 times at 4 hours, then 1.2 times at 12 hours, before rebounding to 2.6 times at 24 hours, forming a "V-shaped reversal" trajectory—bears regained power after nearly losing advantage, but the second surge was much weaker than the initial peak. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; although the direction returns to bearish, the strength is limited, so avoid blindly shorting. 🔥 Market Barometer | August 21 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: liquidity valve loosening, policy signal divergence, and consumer IP iteration—three forces resonating on the same trading day. ₿ BTC Breaks $72,000: Record Bear Squeeze, but "Fake Breakout" Debate Persists On August 20, Bitcoin continued its rally, breaking $72,000 with an intraday high of $72,830, the highest since June. In the past 24 hours, approximately $2.75 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated, with Bitcoin accounting for about $1.7 billion—this is the largest full-market short squeeze recorded by CoinGlass since 2021. Total network liquidations reached $3.34 billion, with shorts accounting for $3 billion. However, there is intense debate over the sustainability of the rally. Longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff called it a "fake breakout," attributing it to a one-time operation by the U.S. Treasury doubling long-term bond repurchases. Bulls argue that demand in spot and perpetual futures markets turned positive simultaneously for the first time since the October 2025 historical peak—if maintained for another month, it would justify the start of a new bull market. Spot ETFs attracted over $1 billion inflows from Monday to Wednesday, completely reversing last week's nearly $390 million outflow. Short covering accelerated the breakout, but whether Bitcoin can hold above $70,000 increasingly depends on sustained spot and ETF demand. 🏛️ Fed July Minutes: Hawkish Votes Outnumber, Market Prices Opposite The Fed's July meeting minutes released on August 19 showed the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the number of officials supporting a rate hike far exceeded the three dissenters—the minutes revealed several participants favored a 25 basis point hike at this meeting; many believed further tightening might be necessary if inflation does not decline. Yet, the market is pricing in a rate cut. After the minutes, the market assigned an 81.2% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September. The minutes mentioned no support for rate cuts—the more hawkish the minutes, the more dovish the market, because the market prices not "who dissented," but the fact that "the economy is slowing." 🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU Slows, Star People Surges 580% to Take Over On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 half-year report: revenue of 17.17 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year; adjusted net profit of 5.16 billion yuan. Revenue in China surged 47.3% year-on-year to 12.2 billion yuan. The IP landscape is undergoing drastic restructuring. THE MONSTERS series, featuring LABUBU, generated 4.45 billion yuan, still the top, but down 7.5% year-on-year, with revenue share dropping from 34.7% to 26%. The new IP "Star People" earned 2.65 billion yuan, soaring 580.6% year-on-year, becoming the second largest IP. LABUBU slows down, Star People takes over—Pop Mart's IP lifecycle management is facing its toughest test. Plush product line has become the largest growth engine, with revenue up 60% year-on-year to 9.82 billion yuan, accounting for 57.2% of total revenue. The board announced a share repurchase plan of 2 to 5 billion yuan, the company's first such plan. 💎 Summary Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin broke $72,000 with a record $2.75 billion short squeeze, but the "fake breakout" debate remains—the key is whether spot buying can continue; HYPE contract market bear crush ratio dropped from 30.9 times to near parity at 1.2 times before rebounding to 2.6 times, completing a full V-shaped reversal, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $8.37 million, bears surged again but with less intensity than the peak; the more hawkish the Fed minutes, the more dovish the market, as economic slowdown signals outweigh inflation concerns; Pop Mart's LABUBU slows while Star People surges 580%, the IP landscape is undergoing a brutal old-to-new transition. When liquidity, policy, and consumption forces resonate simultaneously—the market is aggressively repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ BTC has stabilized above $72,000, maintaining a strong bullish structure, but short-term risks of a pullback after a surge should be watched. ETH is relatively weak, with $2,300 as the key dividing line between bulls and bears; a decisive break below this level would increase correction pressure. In terms of operations, it is recommended to lightly buy BTC on dips as long as it does not break below $71,000, but be cautious when chasing highs; for ETH, monitor the $2,300 support closely—if broken, reduce positions to avoid risk, with overall emphasis on controlling position size. $CORE has been one of the most puzzling laggards in the current bull run. While BTC, ETH, and SOL have all posted strong gains, often squeezing shorts aggressively, CORE—despite its BitcoinFi narrative—has barely moved. The market is telling a Bitcoin infrastructure story, yet the token price isn’t following. Here’s a breakdown of the real friction points holding it back. 🔍 1. Supply Overhang: The Elephant in the Room CORE’s total supply is 2.1 billion, with only about 60% currently in circulat The short squeeze rally is still ongoing, and the data on short liquidations continues to expand. Over the past 24 hours, more than $1.3 billion has been liquidated, with over 90% being short positions. The 72,500 level was hit, indicating that the short sellers' defensive line set above 70,000 has been systematically targeted. As the price rises to this level, the driving logic has shifted from "buy-side pushing" to "shorts being forced to cover," and the faster the pace, the more unstable the foundation.The order book density for PRL is currently very abnormal. Above 0.2620, there are continuous triple-digit sell orders pressing down, but every time it approaches 0.2480, some funds quickly eat up the first and second sell orders, then the orders are withdrawn again, as if they don't want to leave too many traces at this position. On-chain tracking shows that in the last two hours, a newly created wallet withdrew about 3.8 million PRL from the exchange in three separate transactions, with zero outflow after transfer. The spot net outflow has not been replenished, effectively locking up the available sellable chips temporarily. Such addresses often isolate inventory in preparation for the next upward move. I just rode my bike to an old building without an elevator; after delivering orders on the sixth floor, my legs were a bit shaky, but my eyes were still fixed on the 15-minute chart without looking away. From the naked K-line perspective, the 4-hour level formed a long lower shadow near 0.2310, with rebounds testing 0.2620 twice but failing to break through the body, indicating heavy short stop-loss pressure above and unwillingness of buyers below to chase prices. The long-short ratio fluctuates repeatedly at low levels, contract positions are increasing but prices are not falling, which is characteristic of accumulation. In terms of operation, the current price of 0.2558 is not suitable for direct chasing. Light long positions can be taken on pullbacks between 0.2490 and 0.2510, with a stop loss at 0.2440, first take profit at 0.2610, and second take profit at 0.2705. If it directly breaks above 0.2620 and the 15-minute candle closes without falling back, you can chase long with a stop loss at 0.2555 and a target of 0.2740. Do not participate in short positions. $PRL #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 @OKX星球 📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (August 21) Shorts dominate the short term, longs crushed in the long term but with very small volume, typical retail trading in a low liquidity asset... Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation 1 hour $56.42 $0 $56.42 4 hours $6,275.66 $0 $6,275.66 12 hours $23,500 $765.49 $22,700 24 hours $23,600 $765.49 $22,900 From the CORE liquidation data: shorts monopolize the entire 1-hour period, with zero long liquidations and a volume of only $56, a tentative short squeeze; at 4 hours the direction is confirmed, shorts continue to dominate with volume slightly rising to $6,300, shorts maintain control but absolute volume remains very low; at 12 hours shorts crush longs, shorts are 29.6 times the longs, volume jumps to $22,700, shorts control the market in a crushing manner but total volume is still very small; at 24 hours shorts and longs are basically balanced, shorts liquidated $22,900 vs longs $765.49, shorts are 29.9 times longs, cumulative liquidation only $23,600. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 99.6% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely high concentration—liquidations are almost entirely within 12 hours, with only about $100 increase in the following 12 hours, the market is almost stagnant. The short crushing ratio slightly rises from 29.6 times at 12 hours to 29.9 times at 24 hours, momentum basically stable, but absolute volume is extremely small (less than $30,000 in 24 hours), typical retail trading in a low liquidity asset, no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, this asset has very poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading reference. 🔥 Market Barometer | August 21 Three hot topics today point to the same theme: liquidity valve loosening, policy signal divergence, consumer IP iteration—three forces resonating on the same trading day. ₿ BTC breaks through $72,000: record short squeeze, but "false breakout" controversy remains On August 20, Bitcoin continued its rally breaking $72,000, reaching an intraday high of $72,830, the highest since June. In the past 24 hours, approximately $2.75 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated, with Bitcoin accounting for about $1.7 billion—this is the largest full-market short squeeze recorded by CoinGlass since 2021. Total network liquidations reached $3.34 billion, with shorts accounting for $3 billion. However, there is fierce disagreement on the sustainability of the rally. Longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff called it a "false breakout," attributing it to a one-time doubling of long-term Treasury repo operations by the U.S. Treasury. Bulls argue that spot and perpetual futures demand have simultaneously turned positive for the first time since the October 2025 historical peak—if this can be maintained for another month, there is reason to believe a new bull market has begun. Spot ETFs attracted over $1 billion inflows from Monday to Wednesday, completely reversing last week's nearly $390 million outflow. Short covering accelerated the breakout, but whether Bitcoin can hold above $70,000 increasingly depends on the sustainability of spot and ETF demand. 🏛️ Fed July Minutes: Hawkish votes far exceed dissenters, but market prices the opposite The Fed's July meeting minutes released on August 19 showed the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the number of participants supporting a rate hike far exceeded the three official dissenters—the minutes revealed several attendees supported a 25 basis point hike at this meeting; many believed further tightening might be necessary if inflation does not decline. Yet the market is pricing in a rate cut. After the minutes, the market assigned an 81.2% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September. The minutes did not mention any support for rate cuts—the more hawkish the minutes, the more dovish the market, because the market prices not "who voted no," but the fact that "the economy is slowing." 🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU slows, Star People surges 580% to take over On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 half-year report: revenue of 17.17 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year; adjusted net profit of 5.16 billion yuan. Revenue in China surged 47.3% year-on-year to 12.2 billion yuan. The IP landscape is undergoing drastic restructuring. THE MONSTERS series featuring LABUBU generated 4.45 billion yuan, still the top, but down 7.5% year-on-year, with revenue share dropping from 34.7% to 26%. New IP "Star People" generated 2.65 billion yuan, soaring 580.6% year-on-year, becoming the second largest IP. LABUBU slows, Star People takes over—Pop Mart's IP lifecycle management is facing its toughest test. Plush product line has become the largest growth engine, revenue up 60% year-on-year to 9.82 billion yuan, accounting for 57.2% of total revenue. The board announced a share repurchase plan of 2 to 5 billion yuan, the company's first repurchase plan announcement. 💎 Summary Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin broke through $72,000 with a record $2.75 billion short squeeze, but the "false breakout" controversy remains—the key is whether spot buying can continue; CORE contract market liquidations totaled less than $24,000 all day, almost entirely within 12 hours, a low liquidity asset with invalid price action, no directional reference value; the more hawkish the Fed minutes, the more dovish the market, as economic slowdown signals outweigh inflation concerns; Pop Mart's LABUBU slows while Star People surges 580%, the IP landscape is undergoing a brutal old-new transition. When liquidity, policy, and consumption forces resonate simultaneously—the market is aggressively repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ Wall Street's old money has opened the gates, and your ETF may soon have "on-chain stuff" mixed in. On August 21, 2026, Franklin Templeton received U.S. regulatory approval, planning to stuff tokenized assets into traditional ETFs and mutual funds. [Veteran's Ramblings] This matter is far more explosive than you imagine. Don't think this is another shady project team celebrating itself—this is an asset management giant managing over $1.5 trillion in assets, planting a blockchain flag at the heart of traditional finance. Many people have not yet realized what this means. This means that if you buy a regular U.S. stock ETF or a bond mutual fund in the future, your money may unknowingly be indirectly holding tokenized assets on-chain. You don't need to register a crypto exchange, don't need to memorize mnemonic phrases, and you don't even know what DeFi is. But your pension account and your retirement financial management are already tied to blockchain. Wall Street is using the gentlest and most covert methods to enlighten ordinary people about crypto. Liquidity is what Wall Street truly wants. Previously, tokenized assets mostly thrived within the crypto community, with poor liquidity and hard to find trading partners. Now, Franklin Templeton has directly pulled them into the holdings pool of traditional funds, even allowing them as collateral. This effectively opens a huge liquidity valve for these on-chain assets. Imagine a tokenized U.S. Treasury, which used to be only available on a few decentralized exchanges, can now become the underlying asset for multi-billion dollar ETFs—behind it all Franklin Templeton Obtains Regulatory Approval; Traditional Funds Quietly Equip Themselves with Crypto Engines On August 21, Franklin Templeton received regulatory approval in the U.S. and plans to integrate tokenized assets into traditional fund products. [Veteran's Ramblings] This matter is far more explosive than it appears on the surface. Many people read the news and just scroll past, thinking it's just an old asset management firm playing blockchain hype. Wrong. Dead wrong. The crypto world you think you know and the crypto world seen through the eyes of Wall Street's old money are fundamentally different. Franklin Templeton's move is essentially doing one thing: transforming crypto from a retail gambler's casino into an institutional pipeline. They want to put tokenized money market funds into ETFs and mutual funds as holdings and collateral. What does this mean? It means that a grandpa buying an S&P 500 ETF, who doesn't understand what a private key or gas fee is, already holds fund underlying assets running on the blockchain. Money has always been smart. It doesn't care whether you accept it or not; it only finds the most efficient path itself. This is true mass adoption. It's not about you shouting every day that XRP will be used by banks or that SOL will enter ETFs. It's about these traditional financial giants treating crypto as a pipeline, channeling the water into their own pools. They don't buy BTC or ETH; they buy tokenized U.S. Treasuries and tokenized money market funds. These yield about 5% annually but win on compliance and the ability to settle 24/7.The 50-day moving average is chasing the 200-day moving average—is this Bitcoin's "golden cross" a real turning point or a bullish trap? On August 21, 2026, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average reached around $63,976, and the 200-day moving average stopped at around $69,005. As these two lines drew closer, the market was betting on a golden cross. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't be fooled by the words 'Golden Cross.' This is essentially a lagging indicator; the price has already gone up before confirming it. If you wait until you see a crossover to chase it, that early piece of the prime has already been gnawed up. The real highlight isn't the crossover itself, but the three things. First, since October 2025, Bitcoin has been hovering below the 200-day moving average, when the price was still around $110,000. Now, over the past half year, the price once fell above $71,000 before rebounding, and in the past week, it has risen more than 12%, climbing back above the 200-day moving average. From $63,976 to $69,005, the 50-day moving average needs to keep rising for the two lines to intersect. This 200-day moving average marks the dividing line between bulls and bears. Second, light crossovers are not enough; they must "stand firm." What does it mean to stand firm? It's not that it comes back with a single stab, but that it can't be broken by stepping on it. Based on the current market, $70,250 is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which is the first support to watch after a breakout. Only if it can hold 70,250 can buying truly take over; If it can't be held, this is a technical rebound driven by short closing — because in the past 24 hours, $517.19 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated, and these buying orders are one Broadcom is implementing leveraged financing through an SPV structure, significantly increasing the credit and event risk exposure across the AI infrastructure chain. The proposed debt portfolio, aiming to raise up to $100 billion, includes subordinated debt and senior secured tranches, with Broadcom bearing part of the guarantee responsibility. If the massive debt expansion pushes up market long-term interest rate expectations, the AI sector's high valuation positions will face risk appetite contraction and repricing pressure. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the actual issuance scale and subscription multiples of the SPV's senior secured tranches experience significant shrinkage. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 The 50-day moving average is chasing the 200-day moving average. Is this BTC golden cross a true bullish comeback, or is it a trap for bullish inducements? On August 21, 2026, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average reached $63,976, and the 200-day moving average stopped at $69,005. The gap between the two narrowed, and if a golden cross is confirmed, the market may begin a new upward cycle. It has gone up. It really went up. Over the past week, BTC has rebounded over 12%, with the price climbing back above $71,000. In the early hours of August 21, it reached $72,342.9, a single-day increase of 5.64%. Don't rush to go all in. This 50-day moving average is still hovering below the 200-day line—a so-called golden cross, with the Eight Characters still barely complete. Since October 2025, BTC has been held below the 200-day moving average, when the price was still around $110,000. Ten months. After being suppressed by a single line for a full ten months, just as the market is starting to recover, someone is already calling for the bull market to return. [Veteran's Rambling] First, pour cold water on the situation: the golden cross is essentially a lagging indicator. It is not a prophet, but a bookkeeper. The price rose first, and only then did the 50-day moving average catch up. By the time it really crossed with the 200-day moving average, the early gains would have been eaten up by sharp-eyed capital. You see the signal rushing in, and you might end up eating at the end. Historically, BTC has indeed formed golden crosses in February 2023, October 2023, October 2024, and April 2025, each time followed by a rise. Sounds beautiful. But after that golden cross in February 2020, BTC When Waymo kicked Nvidia off the car, the crypto circle finally understood what "computing power sovereignty" means. On August 20, Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, officially announced the mass production of its self-developed ASIC chip, manufactured with TSMC's 5nm process, boasting computing power exceeding 1000 TOPS. It has been installed in the new generation Robotaxi, officially ending the sole reliance on third-party chips like Nvidia and AMD. 【Veteran's rambling】 On the surface, this news seems like a routine matter in the autonomous driving circle. But looking deeper, the signal is explosive. What does 1000 TOPS mean? This is comparable to Nvidia's latest generation autonomous driving system. But the real hard part is not the computing power number, it's the path Waymo chose—designing its own chips, designing its own sensors, running its own neural networks. Holding the lifeline in its own hands. Those doing autonomous driving have started making chips. Google, which does search, has long been developing its own TPU. Who's next? For Crypto players, the mapping logic of this matter is very clear. The first layer: computing power is power. Why does Waymo want to develop its own? Because AI computing power costs are spiraling out of control, and Google's entire group is pushing a self-developed chip strategy to control infrastructure expenses. When centralized giants are all pursuing computing power autonomy, the narrative value of decentralized computing power networks is quietly being re-evaluated. DePIN projects like Render Network and Akash Network embody the logic that "computing power should not be choked by a few cloud providers." In the first quarter of 2026, the firs $TRUMP SHORT 🔴 Entry: 1.658–1.668 SL: 1.680 TP1: 1.635 TP2: 1.620 TP3: 1.605 TRUMP remains below MA5/10/20 after a sharp rejection. 1.675 is the key level that would weaken this short idea. #BTCBreaks72K #FOMC9To3Split #PopMartEarningsWatch $4 billion buyback ignited on September 9—is Bitcoin's $72,000 short squeeze just a rehearsal? On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would raise the liquidity-backed repurchase cap for long-term nominal Treasury bonds of 10-20 years and 20-30 years from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and lasting until November 4. Upon hearing this, the 30-year Treasury yield plunged from around 5.34% to 5.19%, Bitcoin surged from $64,100 to $72,300, with over $3.2 billion liquidated in 24 hours, including $3.001 billion in short liquidations. [Veteran's Rambling] First, pour cold water on the situation. This time the Treasury's buyback is not about the Fed printing money, nor is it QE. It is the Ministry of Finance using the money in its books to buy back and cancel those "old, untraded" old bonds, essentially a debt management operation of "selling short and buying long." In the $31.5 trillion U.S. Treasury market, the seven operations from September 9 to November 4 only generated $14 billion in increments—just a drop in the bucket. But the market never looks at volume, only on signals. What are the signals? It was the U.S. government that clearly told the world: the 5.34% rate for the 30-year term is a red line and long-term rates can no longer skyrocket. Once this red line is drawn, term premiums are compressed, the dollar weakens, and risk appetite returns—Bitcoin's biggest enemy has never been regulation, but a 5% risk-free return. When the "magnet for easy profits" of U.S. Treasuries weakens, funds start shifting toward risk assets. This was the single-day increase of 11.7% for Bitcoin and Ethereum for Ethereum on August 20 $86.2 billion is just the entry ticket: Anthropic rushes to IPO, how many episodes into the crypto market's "AI gold rush" are we? On August 21, 2026, Caixin reported that Anthropic expects its initial public offering to at least match the record set by SpaceX, which initially raised $75 billion and $86.2 billion including the overallotment. Anthropic is preparing to publicly submit its listing documents as early as the end of this month. 【Veteran's rambling】 This calculation needs to be broken down. When SpaceX went public in June this year, it was valued at $1.77 trillion, raising $75 billion, and $86.2 billion including the overallotment. Anthropic wants to "surpass" this, actually in two dimensions—valuation, which it is very likely to win (market expectations are $2 trillion or even $3 trillion), but fundraising may not, depending on the issuance ratio. So when the media calls it the "largest IPO in history," half is true, half is narrative. But what does this mean for crypto players? I'll tell you three levels. First level: the imagination space of liquidity overflow. Anthropic's listing is like a shot of adrenaline for global capital—artificial intelligence is currently the only "revenue explosion" sector that has been validated. Anthropic's Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, a year-on-year surge of about 14 times, with an annualized revenue run rate breaking $65 billion. This level of growth narrative will drive institutions' appetite to allocate to AI-related assets, and some of that money will sooner or later overflow into the crypto market's artificial intelligence Nasdaq fell 1%, Walmart plunged 9.2% last night, so why did Bitcoin surge to 72,000? On August 21, 2026, the three major US stock indexes all closed lower: Nasdaq down 1%, Dow Jones down 1.31%, S&P 500 down 0.86%. The seven tech giants were all in the red, and Walmart plunged 9.2% in a single day, marking its largest drop since May 2022. Yet on the same night, storage chips and optical communications rose against the trend, and Bitcoin surged past the $72,000 mark, up more than 6% in the past 24 hours. 【Veteran's rambling】 Don't be fooled by the superficial narrative of "US stocks down, crypto up." The real signal that night was that capital was making extremely selective choices. Breaking it down makes it clear. Behind Nasdaq's 1% drop was a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield by more than 5 basis points to 4.704%, and the 30-year yield also rose over 5 basis points to 5.248%—this long-end interest rate hand is specifically squeezing out long-duration assets. Apple fell 1.75%, Microsoft 0.43%, Google 1.02%—these companies relying on discounted future cash flows were hit first. Walmart's 9.2% drop was even more severe, with US same-store sales rarely missing expectations, signaling pain on the consumer side. But the strange thing is this: SK Hynix rose over 4%, Micron 3.97%, SanDisk 2.02%; Applied Optoelectronics rose over 5%, Lumentum 6.24%. While the seven giants fell, AI hardware infrastructure was rising. The money hasn't left the market; it's just changing seats. cr The Nasdaq fell 1%, so why did Bitcoin dare to rise 4.40%? Veterans see something different. On August 21, 2026, the three major US stock indices closed lower: the Nasdaq down 1%, the Dow down 1.31%, the S&P 500 down 0.86%, and all seven tech giants were caught in the move. But on the same night, Bitcoin rose 4.40% to $72,386, Ethereum rose 3.06% to $2,321.65, and the storage and optical communications sectors bucked the trend strongly—SK Hynix rose over 4%, Micron Technology gained over 3%, and Lumentum gained over 6%. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't be fooled by the phrase "Nasdaq down 1%." The signals hidden on the market that night were far more dangerous than on the surface. Let's start with the culprit. The U.S. Treasury had just announced the day before that it would at least double the repurchase of 10-, 20-, and 30-year Treasury bonds, hoping to suppress long-term yields. However, the good times didn't last: the 10-year yield rebounded more than 5 basis points to 4.704% in a single day, and the 30-year yield fell back to 5.248%. With long-term interest rates soaring, the longest-duration tech stocks were hit first—Apple fell 1.75%, Amazon dropped 2.16%, and Tesla dropped 1.71%. Not a single one of the Seven Giants survived. Walmart is even more ruthless. It fell 9.2%, marking the largest single-day drop since May 2022. This retail giant is the barometer of American consumption, with same-store sales rarely falling short of expectations, essentially telling the market that residents' wallets are empty. Walmart's crash dragged the Dow down by 703.84 points. It is truly strange BTC broke through 72000, but there is a hidden risk that cannot be ignored $BTC broke through $72000 in the early morning, hitting a new high in over three months. It rose nearly 4% in 24 hours. However, at the same time, the July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve showed — 9 votes in favor of keeping rates unchanged, 3 votes supporting a rate hike. Bulls are celebrating, hawks are lurking. Bullish logic: triple drivers are still in effect The U.S. Treasury expanded the scope of long-term Treasury repurchase operations to include 10- to 30-year maturities, effective September 9. Bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, benefiting BTC. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $517 million on Wednesday, the strongest since May 4. BlackRock's IBIT contributed $285 million leading the charge. Over the past 60 days, whales have increased net holdings by about 43,000 BTC. Bearish risk: the minutes did not mention rate cuts The minutes showed 3 votes supporting a 25 basis point hike, and several participants believed that if inflation does not improve, further tightening would be necessary. Chair Powell proposed reducing the number of annual rate meetings from 8 to 6 and suggested updating the policy framework — including announcing rate decisions in advance. Last week, initial jobless claims were 229,000, slightly above expectations, and continuing claims were 1.87 million, the highest since December 2024. Employment is cooling, inflation remains above 3%. ETFs are buying, whales are buying, but the Fed has not eased. Be cautious chasing longs above 72000. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 As a top architectural designer, when I look at Pop Mart's financial report, it's like reviewing a freshly delivered foundation settlement observation record at a construction site early in the morning. Stop looking at that shiny IP curtain wall; the foundation has already emitted ominous groans. The "Trendy Toy Tower" completed in the first half of the year shows a 23.8% growth on paper, but the "net profit load-bearing wall" that truly determines the building's lifespan only increased by 10.1%. This is a dangerous scissors gap—the higher the floors are stacked, the weaker the concrete grade becomes. The contractor explains this as a necessary investment during the expansion phase, but what I see is precisely a red alert in the structural system: while the "Main Building in Mainland China" topped out first at a rate of 47.3%, the "Overseas Podium Buildings" in Asia-Pacific and the Americas are contracting, at -9.7% and -16.5% respectively. This is not a simple style shift; it is an overall instability in the load-bearing system. The most tragic collapses in architectural history are often not due to height but due to a shifted center of gravity. LABUBU, once the "core steel column," has seen its compressive strength drop by 7.5%, and new IPs like Twinkle Twinkle, despite nearly sixfold growth, are, in my eyes, just glass curtain walls attached to the facade—dazzling to look at but unable to bear any wind load or seismic force. True architects know that structures not tested through a full lifecycle and extreme conditions can only be considered "temporary reinforcements." You cannot so densely replace load-bearing components on a building that has not yet topped out. This is no longer a matter of "designing while building"; it is a challenge to the laws of physics. Those new IPs packaged as "second growth points" do not even meet the load-bearing standards of temporary fire escape stairs in my view. Looking at the financial ratios: inventory turnover is slowing, meaning materials are piling up in warehouses, and funds are frozen in concrete. This is a sharp increase in energy consumption, a sign of project management losing control, a classic case of a "half-finished project." The capital market's old supervisor holding the XGOOGL ruler has long captured subtle torsional vibrations of the building with his dynamic tester—this building's foundation is undergoing plastic hinge transformation. When the independent foundation of the overseas market starts to lift, the settlement cracks of the entire building become irreparable, and those shiny marketing centers on the exterior walls have lost the logic to continue construction. When multiple IP schedules seem lively, it's actually because no one can find the "main building." A building can have rich language, but if the load transfer path is unclear, it cannot even resist wind vibrations. When the main entrance column (LABUBU) begins to peel, and other columns have not passed the 28-day standard curing period, the building has already lost the premise for adding more floors. The construction crew is busy, the tower cranes are turning, and it looks prosperous, but the core secret of the site is: the blueprints can no longer be changed. This covert inspection by market funds sees insufficient mortar fullness, misaligned rebar joints, and loose formwork support systems. I don't need to wait for the final completion acceptance report. Because the moment the first pile was driven, the verticality had already deviated beyond the allowed tolerance. All the subsequent fancy interior decoration and curtain walls only add overturning moments to this tilt. The signature line on the inspector's report should only have two words: Stop Work. #PopMartEarningsWatch BTC suddenly surged back to $70,000, did Trump give it another push? This wave of Bitcoin suddenly rushing from over $60,000 all the way back to $70,000 is definitely not just a simple technical rebound. On August 19, Trump met with several crypto industry executives at the White House and publicly urged Congress to quickly advance the CLARITY Act. The signal is very clear: the U.S. is not trying to drive crypto out, but is rushing to establish a regulatory framework. But I think the real ignition was the liquidity expectation. The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, Treasury yields fell, and the market's liquidity expectations suddenly eased. At the same time, BTC broke through a key level, shorts began to liquidate continuously, and ETF funds flowed back in. Policy expectations + improved liquidity + short squeeze + ETF funds, a few sparks collided, making it hard for BTC not to rally. But here I still want to remind you: $70,000 is not the end, nor is it a reason to blindly chase the rally. What really matters is whether BTC can hold above $70,000 and turn this level from resistance into support. If it can hold, the story ahead may just be beginning. If it can't hold, this might just be a beautiful "bull trap." Personally, I’m more focused on the trading volume and capital flow in the next few days. Breaking through is not hard; holding the ground is the real skill.

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