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BTC ≠ Gold. Don’t confuse leverage with real demand.
Seeing a lot of people compare the BTC move to the gold/silver debasement trade, but the setups are very different.
Gold and silver are ripping because real buyers are repricing inflation and currency debasement.
BTC? A huge part of this move came from billions in liquidations over just four days—first shorts, then longs. That’s leverage, not necessarily a fundamental re-rating.
#DailyOrbit $BTC is leading the way.
Currently, we are in the classic mid-cycle rotation phase of "$BTC leading, with capital gradually spreading outward."
The three sectors with the strongest rotation right now are:
1️⃣ Old coin value re-evaluation (ZEC, XRP)
2️⃣ New and old public chains L1 (ETH, SOL, HYPE)
3️⃣ RWA tokenization (institutional structural buying)
From the 24-hour liquidation data, BTC, ETH, and SOL mainly see liquidations on the short side, so airdrops have become fuel for further price increases.
XRP and HYPE, on the other hand, mainly experience long liquidations, mainly due to rapid gains earlier and are currently undergoing a pullback and consolidation.
Personally, I think the current sideways consolidation will make the market healthier and better support continued price increases.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #BTC fluctuates after a surge, with ETF funds continuously flowing in
$BTC currently faces uncertainty due to the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace and U.S. Treasury yields, with no clear easing catalyst
AI stocks and gold have diverted some macro risk funds; not all hot money is coming to Bitcoin
Once the Nasdaq index linked to it pulls back, Bitcoin will face pressure as institutional funds are reluctant to heavily buy at the 80,000 level
80,000 is a major round number level that everyone is watching; algorithmic trading, take-profit orders, and stop-loss orders are heavily stacked here
Before it truly stabilizes above this level, people tend to sell on rallies rather than chase higher
Short-term indicators have been continuously rising and are now overbought, inherently requiring a period of fluctuation and pullback News of Bassent's "economic offensive" has been released, planning to cut off Iran's global economic connections and targeting gold as a key lifeline, but only statements have been made with no implementation timeline. Stimulated by safe-haven demand, gold surged directly on the 4-hour chart, reaching a high of 4696.74, currently at 4671.33, with the bullish trend structure intact.
Currently, the market initiative is in Iran's hands:
If Iran chooses to endure without strong retaliation, safe-haven sentiment will continue, and gold prices will keep testing resistance upward;
If Iran retaliates strongly, using shipping routes as countermeasures, the market will immediately see a sharp pullback and consolidation.
It is important to distinguish the primary from the secondary; this geopolitical news only creates short-term pulse movements and will only determine whether there is an opportunity for a pullback to buy low. The real determinant for whether gold can push to 5100-5600 in the mid-term depends on Wednesday's PCE data.
Key levels:
Strong resistance: 4696.74
Short-term support: 4615-4630
Hold base positions below 4620 to continue betting on upward potential; avoid chasing higher at current prices.
If the price pulls back to the 4615-4630 range, you can continue to buy low and build positions.
News-driven market volatility will be extremely fierce, as traders often say, trading is a test of the heart; sudden spikes and drops can occur anytime, so position sizing must be controlled carefully, and avoid heavy one-sided bets.
Sixty percent of traders hold high positions, all hoping for a sharp pullback, but do not overestimate a deep drop. The overall trend is upward, and any pullback is likely to be a brief and rapid correction, not offering many calm low-entry opportunities.
Watch two things going forward: Iran's response and Wednesday's PCE data. Geopolitics controls short-term sentiment, PCE determines mid-term height; do not confuse the two.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
Latest Data
The escalation of US-Iran sanctions pushes up oil prices, increasing energy inflation risks. $BTC fluctuates at high levels, $ETH and $SOL are sensitive to macro factors, OKB is relatively resistant to decline, while $DOGE and $PEPE show amplified volatility. US PMI rises, but employment weakens, indicating stagflation characteristics.
Market Consensus
The economy should weaken under geopolitical conflicts; the positive data is puzzling, with expectations of Federal Reserve tightening.
Underlying Logic Analysis
War mainly impacts the involved countries and does not directly cause a global economic recession. US nominal data looks good, but real domestic demand is weak; the PMI increase partly comes from raw material price hikes and corporate stockpiling. Rising oil prices disrupt the pace of interest rate cuts; $BTC is supported by ETFs, but inflation rebound suppresses risk assets, increasing the risk of pullbacks in high-elasticity coins.
Personal Viewpoint (personal bias towards a gradual bull market return, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
Economic collapse cannot be judged solely by geopolitical factors; stagflation amplifies market volatility, so aggressive positions are not advisable. Focus on oil prices and US Treasury yields, closely monitor $BTC support, and control positions in high-elasticity coins.
If you want to directly produce publishable community content, the work task mode can optimize titles, images, and layout. Should we continue using it?Half-year high! Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin by 9 points last night 👑
$ETH current price 2480, touched 2530.5 overnight — highest since February 1. Up 31% in a week, outperforming BTC by nearly 9 percentage points. This altcoin season, the flagship has changed.
Three details:
First, clear capital rotation. $ETH/$BTC rate rose from 0.029 to 0.0318; ETH ETF attracted 697 million last week, with a single-day 221 million inflow, the largest in ten months — money is moving from BTC to Ethereum.
Second, Ethereum is becoming the "goose that lays golden eggs." Fidelity applied for an ETH fund with 100% staking and quarterly yield distribution. Institutions will buy not only for price appreciation but also for interest, completing the logical loop.
Third, the 2500 support level was reached last night. Only a thin layer away from the 2546 ceiling; breaking through means 2700.
Key levels: resistance at 2530, 2546 (breakout target 2700); support at 2440, 2380.
In short: the staking narrative has just begun, the rate reversal just confirmed, and every time $ETH dips below 2500, it becomes less available ✨
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #Jackson Hole Approaches, Can Walsh Clarify the Policy Path?
The boss has something to say
The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting officially opens this Thursday, and Walsh will deliver the keynote speech at 10 PM Beijing time on Friday. This is his most critical public appearance since taking office.
The market is waiting for three things.
First, can Walsh clearly explain his policy logic? Since taking office, he has deliberately avoided forward guidance, shortened policy statements, and been vague in two press conferences. The 30-year US Treasury yield once surged to 5.334%, with the market punishing uncertainty through yields. Former Philadelphia Fed President Harker bluntly said Walsh must directly address the inflation issue; the current statements are no longer enough, and the market will be very disappointed.
Second, will he provide guidance on the policy path from September to December? This is still undecided. If ambiguity continues, TD Securities warns of a clear "asymmetric risk." The key is that there will be no Q&A session after the speech; the real direction might be judged from off-site remarks by other officials during the meeting. About five Fed officials are expected to give interviews to various media on Friday.
Third, how will he reconcile the contradictions in economic data? PMI is at a four-year high while consumption is weak, sending mixed signals about the US economy. Inflation has been above 2% for five consecutive years, and employment is starting to loosen. The Fed's decision-making framework needs to connect these variables.
Wednesday's PCE data will be released first, with core PCE expected to remain at 3.3%. CME shows about a 41% chance of a rate hike in September. A PCE above expectations will further solidify the rate hike logic, while a lower-than-expected reading will give Walsh more room for a "wait-and-see" strategy. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
On the market front, last night the big coin was entered at 78130 and exited near 79500 during the live broadcast; Ethereum long position at 2455 exited at 2500, both trades were successful. Currently, there is consolidation near 79500; next, we will see if the 80000 round number can be broken with volume. If not, wait for a pullback to re-enter.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.Tom Lee launched BitMNR, with a ten-year vision betting on Ethereum becoming the main platform for tokenization and AI. Fundstrat says the narrative of ETH surpassing Bitcoin is "very reasonable," and has set targets of $50,000, $100,000, and $200,000.
Honestly, Ethereum does have an advantage in tokenization, with RWA, stablecoins, and DeFi infrastructure all present. The AI + blockchain story is still in its early stages, and it's hard to say who will emerge as the leader.
But the slogan "ETH surpasses BTC" has been around for almost ten years, repeated every bull market. If ETH really reaches $50,000, its market cap would exceed $6 trillion. This is not impossible, but it requires tokenization to explode to the trillion-dollar level, Ethereum to maintain technological leadership, and favorable regulatory support. Baysent has recently been releasing various short essays to test the market, and if the market still doesn't respond. That might also be what Baysent wants, so he can turn to Wash and say, "Brother, this is as far as I can go, the rest depends on you, interest rates..."
Then go to the White House to meet Trump, "Boss, I've done everything I can here, you see the situation with Iran..." #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Not long ago, I shorted SanDisk and accumulated a decent profit. But facing these two dramatic upward moments, I kept missing out, my mindset became unbalanced, and I was always fixated on trying to catch the top, constantly testing short positions at high levels. After repeatedly cutting losses and exiting, they were unwilling to admit defeat, continuously increasing their positions to guess the highs, and in the end, almost all the profits accumulated early on were wiped out. Looking back at SanDisk's daily chart, I realized the market signals are actually very clear. The first round of decline broke out of a standard triple top, and the third high was significantly below the middle peak, forming a head and shoulders top pattern, which was originally an excellent window for short selling; After the second round of decline to 1500, it rebounded to 1980, just at the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance level. Looking at the two rounds of gains: the first wave rebounded from 990 to 1125, signaling a pullback to the 970-1000 range, consolidating sideways. This is a safe bullish entry point, followed by a strong rally to 1430; This round of market signals is also clear: pullbacks to the bottom near 1200 are continuously rising, forming a second bullish entry opportunity, all the way up to 1826. Looking back afterwards, the market logic is not complicated. Those who enter too early are like vanguards in charge; if they bet right, they can reap great rewards, but the vast majority will die before dawn arrives. Truly rational right-side traders don't need to be at the front. Once the vanguard finishes the toughest battle and the situation becomes clear, we can follow the main force and enter the battlefield to clean up the battlefield. Once you understand this, the anxiety caused by missing out suddenly eases a lot. Currently, the 1800 level has already appeared#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
The US has launched a new round of broad economic sanctions, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain. Although oil prices have fallen in the short term, with Brent crude currently at $90.35, the market's risk premium has not disappeared. If the shipping lanes are blocked, oil prices could quickly rebound at any time, and the risk of energy inflation will resurface.
With inflation rebound expectations rising, US Treasury yields tend to increase, putting more pressure on risk assets. Geopolitical news is most likely to cause sudden, unpredictable volatility spikes.
$BTC｜Current price $76420, resistance at 78800, support at 73500. In the short term, it still behaves primarily as a risk asset; if the conflict eases, market pressure will lessen, but if the situation worsens, a correction will come first. The long-term inflation hedge logic is a later scenario.
$ETH｜Current price $2428, resistance at 2490, support at 2370. Volatility in altcoins and meme sectors will be further amplified.
Gold's safe-haven properties are strengthening and can be used as a barometer of the situation. Going forward, focus on oil prices and US Treasury yield changes; once these two indicators rise, be cautious about chasing the crypto market.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. BTC targets the 81K liquidity vacuum zone, SOL performs a “turtle soup” sweep, TradFi tokenization reshapes on-chain Order Flow
1. Smart Money Flow and Macro Tone
The past 12 hours of macro dynamics have provided an excellent liquidity bed for on-chain Smart Money. Coinbase launched tokenized stocks on the Base network, a move that from the SMC perspective is equivalent to opening the Order Flow pipeline between TradFi and DeFi, allowing the liquidity of traditional equity assets to be directly injected into the on-chain Premium/Discount range.
In terms of macro capital flow, US tech stocks in the perpetual sector suffered heavy losses (SKHYNIX -10.16%, SNDK -7.59%, MU -6.01%), indicating that the SSL (Sell-side Liquidity) of traditional risk assets is being actively triggered by large institutions. Meanwhile, the safe-haven asset XAU (gold perpetual) strongly reclaimed and reached the $4,617.50 long target after successfully sweeping the PDL (Previous Daily Low), confirming that institutional buying (Order Block) of safe-haven funds has started. Along with the crypto political group announcing the list of congressional allies, policy premium expectations have risen, BTC BTC is quite strong this round—up over 20% in three days, briefly touching $79,800 intraday on August 25, just shy of $80,000, the closest since May. ETH didn’t lag either, climbing to $2,470–$2,500, with a weekly gain around 30%. Altcoins like SOL and UNI also saw some capital movement.
Frankly, this surge isn’t just retail traders chasing leverage. Spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, the strongest week since October last year; over $4 billion in shorts were liquidated on-chain, a combination of “macro shift + short covering + institutions accumulating.” The trigger was the US Treasury’s announcement to double long bond purchases to suppress yields, gold hitting new highs simultaneously. Capital is worried about inflation and fiscal deficits, so BTC is being bought as “digital gold” first.
This move resembles January 2023’s—three-day surge breaking out, then a pullback to the 200-day moving average to stabilize. In other words: the trend is alive, but it’s not time to blindly go all in.
My personal take:
If you missed out, don’t chase the $79.8K spike; wait for a pullback to $76–78K to see if there’s support rather than guessing the top;
If you hold, move your stop loss to your cost basis, lock in some profits first, don’t treat this rebound as a full bull market;
For altcoins, don’t blindly switch just because ETH is strong. This round is led by BTC/ETH driving the index; many altcoins are just dragged along without volume recovery. The next market launch or turning point will be in this week's speech by Fed's Waller at Jackson Hole:
The key is not whether he emphasizes dovish or hawkish stance
But whether the Fed will change its inflation strategy to help fiscal policy during the meeting?
If yes, then it will be a bullish restart point
If not, the market will see a turning correction
$BTC
$XAU The chess clock is ticking down, and Alibaba's king-side flank has erupted—HKD 80 billion pushed onto the board, a 3.6% dilution per share, the pawn Alibaba has placed at the center of the chessboard.
To a grandmaster, those who keep their heads down looking at the board are beginners. True players only care about one thing: are you willing to sacrifice a knight to clear the opponent's last pawn chain in front of their king? Last quarter, cloud and computing revenue rose 45%, capital expenditure expanded 75%, and net profit collapsed 75%—these numbers are not just financials, but a record of exchanges: you trade the nourishment of one more pawn to open a clear line in the opponent's camp.
Some call this locking in the timing. But on my chessboard, there is no timing, only two tenses: the move where you check the king, and the move where you are checked. Equity financing is not debt, just as an elephant will not retreat beyond the baseline. It avoids the scythe of interest but forces every holder to become a pawn in the same game. The question is, after this move, do you have enough pieces to form a path in the endgame?
After castling king-side, the pawn structure on the queen-side is not yet stable. You hide your king in the corner to avoid the storm in the center, but the rook originally guarding that corner loses control of the critical file. Alibaba's financing is like castling—trading 3.6% control for the king's security and the tempo of the midgame attack. Whether that rook can return depends on whether intelligent computing revenue can break through the opponent's defenses within three moves.
A 45% revenue increase is like a bishop's diagonal, but it must convert to profit to dismantle the ambushes hidden deep within. Each move forces a binary choice between offense and defense. When you focus all your energy on besieging the king-side, the queen-side pawns inevitably advance, and those seemingly independent variables—gun barrels in geopolitical cracks or a broken oil price trend line—are like the opponent's hidden soldiers quietly slipping through the queen-side gaps.
Grandmasters never measure single-step gains or losses; they only calculate the extra pawn at the endgame. Alibaba chose to issue new equity amid a 75% surge in capital expenditure, effectively pushing its king two steps forward. Not because it has no retreat now, but because it believes the endgame value of this growth diagonal is worth more than any debt, like a pawn sneaking through the opponent's baseline, worth mortgaging the king's power.
But that 3.6% is not just a number; it is a cost. The moment it is paid is like actively exchanging the queen-side castle in the midgame—what you can reclaim from the opponent decides everything. Judged by 45% revenue growth, this move locks in offensive ammunition early; judged by a 75% net profit decline, it is merely a swap to patch one wall with another. At the center of the board, these two judgments are one and the same.
Now, all eyes are fixed on that pawn crossing the river. But the true player is already calculating the endgame twenty moves ahead—where every step brings you closer to that crownless king's mansion.
When the chess clock stops, and your king is betrayed by your own pawn, you will understand—the pawn crossing the river has occupied your best square from the start, and that square should have belonged to your queen. #alibabaaidilutionETH surged to 2500 before pulling back and oscillating, rising nearly 30% in a week.
Short liquidations exceeded 1 billion + last week ETH ETF net inflow was 697 million (the strongest week in 2026), a dual drive.
It's not purely a short squeeze bubble; institutions are accumulating through ETFs.
But with high leverage, volatility is large; if buying slows, profit-taking will amplify the correction.
Short-term oscillation to digest, mid-to-long-term institutional channels are still accumulating. Are you going long or watching?$BTC New spot sell orders from affiliated whales have been executed. Two high-scoring leaderboard wallets previously sold 35 BTC near 79.9k. At 19:53 UTC, one wallet placed another sell order at the same price of 15 BTC (about 1.20 million USD), and all were executed between 01:02 and 01:03 UTC. This round of distribution sold a total of 50 BTC, trading about 3.99 million USD, cashing out about 175.4k USD. At 01:20, the official double snapshots show that both still hold a total of 115 BTC, with 105 BTC and about 9.02 million USD still holding between 82.9k and 88.9k, showing no BTC perpetual hedge. Both are highly synchronized, resembling a cluster of linked wallets for continuous distribution, rather than two independent smart money consensus.The foundation is trembling. It's not an earthquake; it's the oil veins of the Strait of Hormuz twitching—each oil shipping route is like the steel reinforcement in the global inflation load-bearing wall. Last week, Brent rose 6.4%, WTI rose 5.7%. This is not an ordinary crack in the wall; it's the groan of a load-bearing wall under stress before fracturing.
I've been drawing supertall building blueprints for twenty years and know a fundamental rule: the wind and earthquake resistance of any skyscraper never lies in the dazzling design of the glass curtain wall but in the unseen underground piles and the core tube shear walls. The foundation raft of Bitcoin, this "crypto city," is precisely anchored on the US real interest rates and energy costs. When the wrench of US sanctions turns on Iranian crude oil exports, even affecting major trade partners, what you see is not just geopolitical paper games but a sudden change in the moisture content of the global energy foundation—it directly causes a redistribution of bending moments in the main beam of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
Tehran's warning—"Support is war"—is not diplomatic rhetoric; it's a load alarm most familiar to structural engineers. When one oil route is allowed case by case and another is blocked, this is not "reopening"; it's like applying lubricant to the pressure relief valve without actually opening it. The tension on the diesel end is a high-intensity load directly transmitted to consumer price lists, like suddenly concentrating wind pressure originally dispersed on the curtain wall onto a single slender column—once a plastic hinge forms at the column end, the lateral displacement curve of the entire asset building will be rewritten.
Looking deeper, if sanctions cause real supply losses and shipping restrictions persist, energy inflation will reprice the Federal Reserve's policy curve like high-temperature creep. The 10-year Treasury yield is the camber of the cantilever beam, gold is the damper buried deep below, and Bitcoin—this still-under-construction digital skyscraper—its foundation slab is tightly interlocked with the displacement response of this macro structure. You stare at the daily candlestick chart like looking at a rendering of the building's effect, forgetting that the real structural analysis reads wind tunnel tests and soil parameters.
So I say, the white paper is just a blueprint; architects look at load paths and redundancy. When oil tankers reroute, insurance costs soar, and geopolitical cracks penetrate downward, what you should check is not some moving average but whether the "inter-story drift angle" of the entire market exceeds limits.
The concrete of the core tube has already begun to spall. I'm more concerned about the welding temperature of the next steel beam. #iranoilriskescalates HYPE｜8/29 Unlock of 14,175,778 tokens (approximately $1.2 billion)
What needs to be noted: This is the largest single release since launch, with nearly half flowing to early investors. Reliable media reports state 14,175,778 tokens, accounting for 1.4% of total supply and about 2.7% of market cap; previous scans recorded "4.46% of circulation" and "6.43 million tokens" as two different figures, showing inconsistency between data panels. The actual on-chain received amount shall prevail. Verification action: On the unlock day, verify the official or actual on-chain release amount and track whether large transfers to exchanges occur within the following 48 hours.
ASTER｜8/25 Biweekly reserve burn (window today)
Based on a 14-day cycle, about 2.8 million tokens should be burned today (team share, burn address 0xa0ed…1b60). As of 8/11, a total of 188.87M tokens have been burned. Currently, no on-chain confirmation; considered pending verification. If executed as scheduled, it will strengthen the evidence chain of "platform revenue → buyback → burn"; if the amount is significantly lower than expected, it indicates the buyback-burn mechanism weakens with trading volume. Trump's return to the White House and his policy implementation have indeed been the core catalyst for gold prices to break through historical highs. From a macro perspective, most of this push is a "passive market repricing triggered by aggressive policy spillovers," but it also implies a proactive demand for a "weak dollar" and "low interest rates" in his administration policy. Global Gold ETF Macro Volume and Capital Flows Global total holdings: about 4,068 tons (just one step away from the historical peak of 4,176 tons set in early 2026). Global Total Assets Under Management (AUM): approximately $530 billion - $615 billion. Capital flow characteristics: 1. Passive boost: The "risk aversion and inflation wave" triggered by policy spillovers The surge in gold prices was mainly driven by the market's pricing in the macro side effects of Trump's policies: Double inflation expectations triggered by aggressive tariffs: The Tax Foundation tariff tracker report pointed out that Trump's comprehensive tariffs on global trading partners significantly increased the cost of imported goods. The market expects a sticky rebound in inflation, and gold, as a core asset against inflation and purchasing power dilution, continues to be bought up. Fiscal deficit expansion and U.S. debt credit scrutiny: The tax cut bill combined with massive fiscal spending has further driven the scale of U.S. sovereign debt to soar. Market concerns over fiat currency dilution and U.S. credit ratings have intensified, pushing sovereign funds and private capital toward physical gold with no counterparty risk. Forcing global central banks to accelerate "de-dollarization": According to McGill BusinBTC leads, altcoins are on hold
$BTC is approaching $80,000, while $ETH remains around $2,500. However, $LAB, $BEAT, $H, and $KAITO are basically stagnant. This divergence indicates that funds are still concentrated on market leaders rather than broadly flowing into altcoins. The US spot BTC and ETH ETFs attract about $2.6 billion in weekly inflows, reinforcing institutional demand.
The key signal now is whether liquidity will extend beyond $BTC and $ETH. Until then, selective altcoin strength is more likely than a broad altcoin season The Ministry of Finance is expanding the scale of government bond repos to inject implicit liquidity, with macro spillover funds currently absorbing high-level volatility.
The 30-year US Treasury yield fell by 9 basis points, and the derivatives market cleared over $5 billion in shorts within three days, pushing up $BTC spot prices.
After the repo scale doubled to at least $4 billion on September 9, if spot funds continue to flow in net, the premium will persist as the long-end yield spread narrows.
Watch for the 30-year US Treasury yield to break above 5.19% again and a significant decline in derivatives positions as a signal of liquidity logic failure.
#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？ #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注The rally is supported by strong spot ETF demand, renewed institutional buying, and heavy short liquidations. U.S. spot $BTC ETFs attracted $1.92B last week, while $ETH ETFs added $697M. Short covering amplified the move, while improved liquidity, Treasury buybacks, and a friendlier regulatory outlook strengthened risk appetite. With spot demand absorbing selling pressure, pullbacks have remained shallow. BTC has a similar story.
As BTC rose from about $77,000 to $80,000, the spot CVD jumped from 169,400 to 206,400, indicating approximately 37,000 net Bitcoin buyers.
Afterwards, the Bitcoin price fell back to around $78,600, but the spot CVD only dropped to 198,400.
Therefore, the price has retraced nearly half of its gains, while the spot CVD retained about 80% of the net buying.
Meanwhile, the OI has declined, funding has cooled significantly, and remains neutral.
Once again, a large amount of spot buying still exists, while leverage has been flushed out. $BTC & $ETH : IS HISTORY ECHOING AGAIN?
In 2022, $BTC fell to $17.7K in June, rallied sharply, then retested lows near $15.8K. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC has again rebounded strongly from below $60K toward $80K, while $ETH recovered above $2.4K. But this cycle has a major difference: institutional demand is returning through spot ETFs, with recent weekly inflows approaching $2B for Bitcoin and nearly $700M for Ethereum.
Is this a real cycle bottom—or another relief rally? Calling RWA a pie in the sky, Coinbase directly put it on the table.
Coinbase launched tokenized stocks on the Base network, initially supporting Apple and Nvidia. The tokens are based on the B20 standard, held 1:1 by a regulated custodian, granting holders full ownership; institutional market makers buy as authorized participants and then hand over custody to the regulated broker Alpaca, using a bankruptcy-isolated structure regulated by the Abu Dhabi Global Market. Users can hold tokens in self-custody wallets, obtain liquidity on Aerodrome, and access the Base DeFi ecosystem for lending, pooling, and staking, with dividend support. The B20 standard extends ERC-20, requiring no whitelist or platform lock, with dividends and splits handled on-chain via multipliers.
This is a bullish development. It represents a substantive breakthrough for RWA tokenization within a compliant framework—Coinbase chose to issue natively on its own L2, directly injecting real-world asset liquidity and use cases into the Base ecosystem. This is a clear incremental signal for Base’s on-chain TVL and DeFi protocols like Aerodrome, further strengthening the RWA narrative. In the short term, it does not directly point to a single crypto token trading opportunity, but the Base ecosystem and RWA concept are worth tracking for sentiment diffusion. The real variables lie in whether tokenized US stocks can attract sufficient liquidity and lending demand, and the speed of subsequent asset expansion.
Source: PANews
#AAPL #NVDA #Crypto100W On August 21, Solana mainnet reduced the target slot time from 400 milliseconds to 350 milliseconds; the Solana Foundation subsequently confirmed in a developer update that the mainnet feature gate was enabled. To clarify the timeline: the network change occurred on August 21, and The Block published an independent observation on August 22, not that the upgrade was completed on August 25. More importantly, 200 milliseconds remains a future target; the current mainnet has not directly dropped to 200 milliseconds. A slot is the designated time window for validators to produce blocks. 350 milliseconds is 12.5% shorter than the original target, theoretically increasing the number of slots per second by about 14.3%. The Block sampled 1,000 slots before and after the upgrade: previously it took about 415 seconds, afterward about 368 seconds. This sample supports a latency reduction but cannot replace long-term operational data. Calculating with a fixed 432,000 slots per epoch, the ideal duration would shorten from about 48 hours to about 42 hours; the window where a validator is consecutively responsible for 4 slots also shrinks from 1.6 seconds to 1.4 seconds. For ordinary users, the most direct impact is that the wall-clock time required for transactions to be packaged and reach the confirmation threshold counted by slots may shorten, enabling faster on-chain transactions and state updates for high-frequency applications. The validator's exclusive ordering window is also shorter, which may reduce latency or the space for transaction reordering. However, three misunderstandings should be avoided. First, denser slots do not automatically mean a 14.3% increase in TPS; each slo #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？
Recently, pressure in the US Treasury market has clearly increased, with long-term yields continuously rising, but Kashkari believes that the US Treasury market is not currently "malfunctioning," and trading and liquidity remain normal.
The issue is not actually the rise in yields, but that the US fiscal deficit and debt scale are continuously expanding, while the market's willingness to absorb long-term debt has not increased correspondingly, so investors naturally demand higher yields.
To ease the pressure, the US Treasury has started expanding the scale of long-term debt repurchases, raising single repurchase amounts to at least $4 billion. Simply put, this means improving liquidity by repurchasing some of the outstanding bonds to cool down long-term yields.
In the short term, this method is indeed effective, and US Treasury yields have seen some decline.
But my view is that repurchases can "stop the bleeding" but are hard to "cure the root cause." The US Treasury market is too large, and repurchases of tens of billions of dollars are unlikely to change overall supply and demand. What truly determines long-term yields are the fiscal deficit, debt issuance, inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path.
Therefore, going forward, I am more focused on whether the 30-year US Treasury yield can return below 5%. If high interest rates persist long-term, not only will US Treasuries be under pressure, but high-valuation tech stocks, real estate, and highly leveraged assets will also be affected.
Ultimately, the real risk for US Treasuries is not whether repurchases can save them, but whether the market is still willing to pay the current prices over the long term. $MSTR
BTC rose more than 20% this week, and the one who should be most excited is actually Strategy.
This is quite interesting.
As of August 23, Strategy still holds 840,400 BTC, with an average cost of about $75,400; but this week, as BTC surged, they did not continue to buy. (Securities and Exchange Commission)
Instead, they did another thing:
Sold about 18.26 million shares of MSTR, raising about $2 billion, while increasing their USD reserves to $5.1 billion and additionally establishing $1.59 billion in USD Cash. (Yahoo Finance)
So now when I look at MSTR, the real question isn’t:
“How much more can MSTR rise if BTC breaks $80,000?”
But rather:
Even Saylor, who loves buying BTC the most, chose to hold cash first this week.
Of course, this doesn’t mean he is bearish on BTC.
But at least it shows that Strategy now values liquidity more, rather than continuing to buy regardless of price.
The higher BTC rises, the greater the potential for MSTR.
But if even Saylor isn’t in a hurry to chase,
I think retail investors have even less reason to rush in out of FOMO.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #BTC consolidates after a rally, ETF funds continue to flow in #ETH consolidates after reaching $2500 Good morning everyone!
$BTC BTC Bitcoin
The current market core driver is the US election policy expectations combined with marginal liquidity easing. BTC, as the market's ballast stone, this round of rebound is more about institutional funds speculating on crypto-friendly policies. After the price rebound, spot ETFs shifted from outflows to slight net inflows, and short positions in the market were significantly covered, pushing the price upward.
Fundamentally, the narrative remains digital gold with unchanged total supply deflation logic, but there is no operating cash flow. In the short term, historical trapped positions accumulate above; continuing to push higher requires sustained incremental funds. Once policy benefits fail to materialize or US Treasury yields rebound, a rapid correction is likely. BTC's volatility is relatively milder compared to the other two assets and serves as the crypto market's barometer; the overall market's rise and fall is basically led by BTC.
$ETH ETH Ethereum
This round is a lagging catch-up rally, with stronger beta characteristics than BTC. Benefiting from warming regulatory expectations, DeFi and on-chain activity have slightly recovered, and the staking pool proportion remains high. However, the L2 ecosystem continues to divert mainnet traffic, and mainnet fee revenue has not risen correspondingly; fundamental improvements are limited.
Technically, ETH's gains have outpaced BTC, but its retracement during pullbacks is also larger. Market leverage derivative positions have increased, raising short-term liquidation risks. The biggest uncertainty remains the US SEC's classification of Ethereum as a security; if classified negatively, it will directly suppress valuation.
$TRUMP Trump Coin TRUMP
A purely sentiment-driven MEME coin with no technical implementation or real business value; its price is entirely tied to news heat about Trump. Recently, it experienced a pulse surge due to crypto policy optimism, with extremely high concentration of holdings and large holders dominating positions.
This coin's logic is completely disconnected from BTC and ETH; it does not follow on-chain fundamentals but only public opinion heat. After pulse surges, selling pressure is huge; when the heat fades, it quickly crashes. Liquidity is fragile, prone to sharp flash crashes, making it a high-risk speculative asset with no long-term holding logic.
The current overall market is a rebound driven by expectations, not a fundamental reversal. Going forward, focus on the progress of US crypto legislation and changes in inflation data.$BTC and $ETH: Why did this rebound avoid a sharp correction?
This rebound benefited from strong spot ETF demand, the return of institutional buying, and a large amount of short covering. The US spot $BTC ETF attracted $1.92 billion last week, while the $ETH ETF added $697 million.
Short covering amplified the rally, while improved liquidity, Treasury repos, and a more favorable regulatory outlook boosted risk appetite.
Because spot demand absorbed selling pressure, the correction remained shallow. BTC and ETH are rising, while altcoins remain differentiated
$BTC reached $79.5K, $ETH surpassed $2.5K, but $H, $LAB, $KAITO, $BEAT, and $SNDK remain weak. Capital continues to favor large-cap assets, while altcoins face liquidity shortages, weakened spot demand, and supply pressure on specific tokens. BTC and ETH ETFs attracted about $2.6 billion in weekly inflows, reinforcing preference for market leaders. The current situation shows capital is rotating selectively rather than a broad altcoin season. Daytime high was 102.80, now 101.73. In the past six months, about 119 trading days have closed below 100—not just any random round. Up about 32% in 7 days, +2 points more than ETH and +9 points higher than BTC. Leading the gains. Spot trading is about $190 million in one day (1.4 times average volume), perpetual positions about 300 million (7 days +32%), fee rate +0.01%. Volume has returned, leverage isn't crazy. More like spot trading passes, less like the end of a short squeeze. But touching it doesn't mean it has stabilized. The yellow line is the half-year box top. Touching and stabilizing are two different things. Slightly stronger than ETH and clearly stronger than BTC, that's why it's worth focusing on the 100-dollar mark. If you're just following the rally, there's no need to write this article. Light rates are a good thing. The real concern is that OI keeps surging but the price can't move—leverage is piling up near the level. If the daily chart stabilizes at $100, it's a real breakout to observe. If it can't pull back and falls back to $95, consider it a false breakout. If volume surpasses $105, then watch $113. If it breaks $88, the logic of the box top is broken. Not chasing the 102.80 candle tonight. Are you betting on the daily chart stabilizing at 100, or a rally and pullback? $SOL #BTC冲高后震荡, ETF funds keep flowing into #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 DO ETF FLOWS HAVE ENOUGH POWER TO PUSH $BTC AND $ETH HIGHER?
Institutional demand is sending a stronger signal. From August 17–21, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted roughly $2.62B combined: $1.92B into $BTC ETFs and $697.18M into $ETH ETFs, their strongest combined week since October 2025. On August 21 alone, flows reached $492M, with $307M into Bitcoin ETFs and $185M into Ethereum ETFs.
This supports the bullish trend, but sustained inflows remain crucial for the next breakout. BTC touched 80000, but essentially it's still driven by sentiment, not liquidity.
Over the weekend, that spike attracted 179,000 people, contract open interest sharply dropped, and after the shorts were cleared out, the resistance to the pump was indeed reduced. But if you really look at the on-chain data—stablecoin inflows didn't keep up, and USDT's total market cap barely increased over the past week. What does this mean? It means this pump was supported by existing on-exchange funds leveraging up, not by new off-exchange money coming in. When the US stock market opens tomorrow morning, if the Nasdaq doesn't cooperate, BTC could fall back from 80000 to 78000 in minutes. My strategy remains unchanged: don't chase, place a long order at 78500 and wait to catch it.
Ethereum at 2500 is indeed fragile, but let me remind you—the exchange rate hasn't moved much during this pump.
The gains are extremely limited, indicating BTC is leading the rally, and ETH is passively following, not actively strengthening. To confirm an independent ETH rally, the exchange rate needs to break through 0.034 at least. I placed a long order at 0.0328, betting on the exchange rate catching up; going long on ETH spot directly isn't as cost-effective.
Regarding BICO and Hynix, I'll give you four words: weak trend, no bottom talk.
Sideways for two weeks, it's not building a bottom, it's just no one is playing. The storage sector is overall having valuations cut; Hynix's fundamentals are fine, but short-term funds aren't in this sector, so set tight stop losses on strategy positions. BNB and OKB strengthening is indeed a good sign; platform tokens usually represent leading smart money, and their buying indicates smart money is positioning on-exchange.
Don't treat the US stock market as a reverse indicator, and don't be blindly optimistic. The path from 80,000 to 100,000 won't be easier than from 60,000 to 80,000 BlackRock again transferred over 2800 BTC and 6500 ETH from Coinbase into wallets like IBIT/ETHA, totaling about $240 million.
This is not a sell-off, but a routine operation accumulating for ETF subscriptions. August marks the second large-scale BTC withdrawal, with BTC's proportion far exceeding ETH.
Institutional channels are still accumulating, especially BTC. Short-term sentiment is positive, and long-term supply remains continuously locked.BTC 08｜Morning Report on the 25th
My judgment on BTC this morning is very simple:
The bulls still have the advantage, but 80K is no longer just a simple technical resistance level; it is a direct confrontation between ETF funds and the US Treasury bond market.
On Monday, BTC once again approached $79,000, with Reuters recording prices around $78,993, a single-day increase of about 2.05%. Last week, BTC rose more than 20%, and now it is just a small step away from 80K.
① ETF: Still the strongest bullish logic at present
The previous rise can be said to have involved a short squeeze, but whether the price can continue to rise after reaching 78K–79K depends on real spot funds.
So my current logic is:
ETF continues to flow in → 80K has a chance to truly break through.
ETF clearly cools down + OI/funding continues to rise → be cautious of high-level deleveraging.
② US Treasury Bonds: I believe this is the biggest risk at present
After the US Treasury expanded long-term bond buybacks, the market is even discussing using nearly $1 trillion in TGA funds to support bond repurchases.
In the short term, this may suppress long-term yields, which is beneficial for BTC, gold, and risk assets.
But looking at it from another angle is also very interesting:
The more the Treasury needs to intervene, the more it indicates that the problems with long-term US bonds have not been truly resolved.Has the altcoin rotation arrived? — Keep an eye on this "Three-Step Confirmation Method"!
Current situation: Mainstream stable, altcoins differentiated, rotation not yet fully underway
BTC and ETH remain strong, with ETFs attracting about $2.6 billion last week, showing a clear improvement in liquidity conditions. The stage is set for large caps, but funds have not fully flowed into altcoins — currently, it looks more like selective rotation rather than a broad altcoin season. Most altcoins still face liquidity shortages and weak spot demand.
🔍 The "Three-Step Confirmation Method" to judge altcoin rotation:
A true altcoin season requires three steps: BTC stabilizes its structure → ETH strengthens confirming capital outflow → SOL/XRP and others lead with volume. Only after these three steps are completed does it become altcoins' time to shine.
A single-day surge of 15% might be noise; the real signal is sustained relative strength + increased trading volume + liquidity expansion. We are currently transitioning from step two to step three, still one step away from confirmation.
📊 How to allocate altcoins?
Big picture: BTC → ETH → large-cap altcoins (SOL/XRP) → sector leaders (LINK/AAVE/ONDO/TAO) → high-beta small caps. Mainstream stability is the premise; watch for sector rotation signals, don’t chase single-day spikes.
We are currently in a "BTC sets the stage, some altcoins test the waters" phase — not yet a full bullish altcoin market, but the seeds of rotation are planted. Be patient before the three-step confirmation, then follow decisively.
$BTC $ETH Bitcoin has risen about 23% over the past week, surging from around $63,000 to $80,000, with market sentiment visibly warming up. But there is a question worth serious consideration: will rising prices attract more people to participate in the market? $BTC A working paper released by the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank in July this year answers this question perfectly. The study was based on a replicated large-scale survey of about 25,000 American households. The study found that the biggest difference between crypto holders and non-holders is not age, gender, or income, but their expectations of returns. In other words, whether a person buys Bitcoin mainly depends on how much Bitcoin they believe it can rise, not on their age or how much money they make. Of course, demographic characteristics also have an impact, but the returns are far below expectations. To verify whether this expectation can truly be changed by price performance, the researchers designed a random information experiment. In the second quarter of 2025, they randomly divided participants into several groups and gave different information. One group was told that Bitcoin had risen 14.3% over the past 12 months, another group saw Bitcoin price charts, and the control group received S&P 500, GameStop, or inflation information, or nothing extra. Participants who were informed of specific returns had 3.2% higher expectations for crypto returns in the coming year than the control group. Looking at the chart, expectations were also about 1.2% higher. Expectations have changed, and so have the configurations. The proportion of Bitcoin information groups wanting to allocate to crypto assets increased by about 2% from an average of 4.3% in the control group, nearly increasing the number of participantsBTC is approaching $80,000, and companies continue to buy
After the recent surge in BTC, a notable change is that corporate demand for BTC has not stopped. Strive recently disclosed that between August 17 and 21, it purchased another 1,110 BTC, spending about $81.5 million, with an average cost of approximately $73,409. Its current holdings have reached 21,356 BTC.
What is even more noteworthy is that Strive is not simply buying BTC with cash but is financing through issuing common and preferred shares, then allocating the funds to BTC. This actually represents an increasingly clear trend: publicly listed companies are turning BTC from a "trading asset" into a long-term allocation on their balance sheets.
Of course, this model also involves financing costs and equity dilution risks, so what truly matters is not how much BTC a company holds, but whether the BTC per share continues to grow. As BTC enters corporate capital structures, its demand sources are becoming increasingly diversified.🚨 Latest update on August 25:
Today, a very important "cooling factor" has emerged
DeepSWE 80%
"Defeats GPT-5.6 / Claude"
This widely spread figure can no longer be taken as a confirmed fact.
The latest reports indicate that the initial 80% result was from a very small sample test; subsequent larger-scale tests yielded results around 63%, so it cannot be simply said that it "crushed GPT-5.6."
This means:
Ox Alpha is still very strong
But:
The narrative of a "globally invincible model" has been weakened.
This is a slight cooling on the short-term sentiment level.
On the other hand, there is a very impressive data point
Real usage. On OpenRouter, the Ox Alpha page now shows it being called by a large number of Agent/Coding tools:
* Hermes Agent: 3.35T tokens
* Claude Code: 1.65T
* DeepSeek Harness: 1.38T
* omp: 1.06T
* pi: 526B
In other words:
Ox Alpha is not just media hype; it is indeed heavily used by real developers.
This is very important to me.
Because what truly matters is not:
Benchmark 80%
but:
Global developers are willing to actually use it for real work. 1. Last Week's Market Review: Violent Surge + Violent Shakeout
From August 17 to 24, Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a rare "surge-crash-recovery" trilogy.
Surge Phase: Bitcoin soared from about $62,000 to a high of $79,500, a weekly increase of 23.6%, marking the strongest weekly gain since March 2023; Ethereum surged from about $1,900 to above $2,520, with a weekly gain of 31.3%. The driving force was U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's announcement to double the single long-term Treasury repurchase size from $20 billion to $40 billion, lowering U.S. bond yields and weakening the dollar, igniting risk asset rallies. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, the largest single-week record in nearly 10 months.
Flash Crash Phase: On August 22-23, hit by concentrated profit-taking and geopolitical tensions, cryptocurrencies collectively plunged. Bitcoin dropped 2.40% to $76,600, Ethereum fell 5.29% to $2,383. Nearly 180,000 traders were liquidated globally, with liquidations totaling $882 million, over 80% of which were long positions — exactly the "sharp drop" you personally experienced.
Recovery Phase: After the flash crash, buying quickly returned. By August 25, Bitcoin rebounded to about $78,900, once approaching $79,891 intraday; Ethereum recovered to about $2,495, with a weekly gain of 31%.
2. Current Market: High-level Volatility, $80,000 Level in Focus
Price Status (as of August 25):
· Bitcoin: about $78,900, up about 1.6% in 24 hours
· Ethereum: about $2,495, up about 2.6% in 24 hours
Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index rose to 81 (extreme greed), indicating clear short-term overheating signals.
Key Levels (watch closely):
Asset Resistance Above Support Below
Bitcoin $80,000 (key psychological level, tested twice but not broken); $79,500 (short-term resistance) $78,400 (first support); $68,000-$73,000 (core support zone)
Ethereum $2,500-$2,541 (strong resistance zone) $2,402 (first support); $2,345 (core support, coincides with 7-day moving average)
Technical Signals: Bitcoin RSI at 70.85 indicates overbought, MACD shows a death cross; Ethereum RSI is as high as 78.57, Bollinger Bands hugging the upper band. Short-term overbought signals are clear, with a higher probability of a pullback.
3. Future Outlook: Three Scenarios
Scenario 1 (Most Likely): High-level consolidation, trading time for space
BTC oscillates repeatedly between $77,000-$80,000, ETH fluctuates between $2,350-$2,550. Buying quickly enters on pullbacks, but selling pressure at $80,000 is heavy. This "stuck in the middle" pattern may continue until after this week's Jackson Hole Symposium and U.S. PCE inflation data release.
Scenario 2 (Low Probability): Breakout with volume, starting the second wave
If BTC breaks and holds above $80,000 with volume and ETH breaks above $2,541, bulls may push toward higher targets. Analysts expect Bitcoin's year-end target to be $100,000-$126,000; if Ethereum breaks $3,000, it could aim above $5,000.
Scenario 3 (Moderate Probability): Deep pullback and shakeout
If PCE data exceeds expectations or Fed speeches turn hawkish, BTC may retest the $73,000-$68,000 support zone; ETH may retest $2,345 or even $2,140-$2,200. The Bitget CEO even suggests a possible drop near $50,000.
4. Trading Advice (Remember our mantra)
"Sideways wait, no gambling; breakout follow-up, fast and precise; five times small waves repeatedly; pocket profits to secure capital is the truth!"
1. In the current sideways phase, stay still: When BTC oscillates between $77,000-$80,000 and ETH between $2,350-$2,550, do not enter to bet on direction. Wait for clear breakout or breakdown signals before acting.
2. Follow the breakout: Chase longs only after volume-backed hold above $80,000 (BTC) or $2,540 (ETH); if volume-backed break below $78,400 (BTC) or $2,400 (ETH) occurs, then watch or lightly short.
3. Keep leverage at 3-5x: With current volatility, 50x leverage can liquidate you with just a 4% pullback.
4. Focus on August 26-28: Volatility will spike around PCE data and Jackson Hole Symposium; either stay out or strictly use stop losses.
Final note: The big picture is intact, but a decent short-term pullback is needed to digest overbought conditions. Survive this volatility, and you can catch the next major uptrend. 🫂
⚠️ The above analysis is based on public market data and does not constitute any investment advice. Markets carry risks; invest cautiously. $ZHIPU 🚨 Latest update as of August 25
1. Biggest change: Ox Alpha still unclaimed
This is currently the most important conclusion.
2. But the "GLM fingerprint" evidence is actually stronger today.
Community developers continue to perform reverse analysis through:
Tokenizer + API errors + stack trace + behavioral characteristics
The latest round of analysis suggests Ox Alpha's tokenizer highly matches GLM-5.3, and error paths, error formats, etc., also show GLM system features.
Additionally, developers deliberately sent erroneous API requests and observed similar:
paas/v4/chat
path features, which are considered consistent with Zhipu's backend system.
So my current judgment:
Probability that Ox Alpha belongs to the GLM system: ↑
But:
It is still not 100% confirmed that Ox Alpha is Zhipu's official next-generation model.
These two must be separated. Those who bought $HYPE at $58, what are they doing now?
HYPE is already at 82. A friend of mine, who had dinner with me last week when it was at 59, said he had staked a batch, and at that time his wife scolded him, saying "Buying this is worse than buying furniture."
It rose 39% in a week, and he didn’t celebrate tonight; instead, he asked me: should I sell all?
I told him to first think about why he bought it initially. His logic back then was: Hyperliquid is the on-chain perpetual leader, the fee buyback mechanism is the cleanest in DeFi, and the platform’s trading volume is still growing. Have these changed? No, they haven’t; in fact, they’ve gotten stronger — the market exploded in August, and the platform’s revenue rose accordingly.
But one thing has changed: the price. At $59, no one priced in these advantages; at $82, just a step away from the all-time high, all the advantages are reflected in the candlestick chart. Moreover, 9.92 million tokens are unlocking monthly, which at the current price represents over $700 million in potential selling pressure. The buyback can hold this month, but what about next month?
My advice to him was simple: if the reasons to hold still stand, keep holding, but don’t mistake unrealized gains for skill. He ended up selling 30%, saying "to earn some peace of mind."
I think this is right. The fundamentals of $HYPE are indeed solid, but no matter how strong a coin is, after a 39% rise in a week, it needs a break. Those who sell might not admit it, but those who know how to take profits can at least sleep well. The remaining position lets the market prove itself for them.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Data as of August 25, 2026 | Current price about 79,900 (OKX) 📊 Current status: Bitcoin is experiencing the most dramatic turning point of the year: • Weekly surge of 24% (August 19-24, 79,400), largest weekly gain since March 2024 • Touched $80,000 intraday on August 24, the highest since May 15 • But note: current price is still about 126,000 lower than the opening in 2026 (~), with a drawdown of nearly 40% In short: Violent rebound in a bear market, trend reversal yet unconfirmed. 🔥 The triple engine behind this rally 1. Treasury buyback expansion (trigger)
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of long-term Treasury repurchase (at least 4 billion each time, effective from September 9). The 30-year Treasury yield fell, the dollar weakened, and risk assets collectively kicked off—BTC directly broke through 69K 2. Epic short squeeze (amplifier)
Weekly liquidations exceeded 100 million, monthly and daily hourly liquidations reached 1.3 billion+ yuan, setting the largest single-day short liquidation record in BTC history, with over 170,000 liquidations (90% of them short) 3. ETF Capital Inflow (Fuel)
The US spot BTC ETF saw a weekly net inflow of **00 million, the strongest since the month, with net inflows for four consecutive trading days, and a single-day net inflow of 600 million+ 🎯 at key price levels. Resistance: The price level is currently strong at 80,000, but has not broken through 82.0 after multiple attempts$ZHIPU 🚨 Latest update as of August 25
1. Biggest change: Ox Alpha still unclaimed
This is currently the most important conclusion.
As of today, the official OpenRouter page still clearly states:
Ox Alpha = anonymous third-party provider
And the page still shows:
* Free
* 1,048,576 Token context
* Text + images + video
* Supports Tool Calling
* Released on August 20, 2026
No official identity confirmation from Z.ai, Zhipu, or GLM.
So:
There is no official confirmation today that “Ox Alpha = Zhipu.”
⸻
2. But the “GLM fingerprint” evidence is actually stronger today
This is the most valuable new development for you today.
Community developers continue to reverse engineer through:
Tokenizer + API errors + stack trace + behavioral characteristics
The latest round of analysis suggests Ox Alpha’s tokenizer highly matches GLM-5.3, and error paths, error formats, etc., also show GLM system features. #ZHIPUThe 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.7% simultaneously with the weakening of the dollar, and the debt premium is exerting valuation pressure on storage tech stocks like $SNDK.
The 10-year yield hitting 4.7% coincided with the dollar weakening; the surge in long-term rates is driven by massive fiscal deficits and an oversupply of government bonds, reflecting that capital is demanding higher compensation for debt risk.
Cross-market linkage shows that debt risk pricing carries the highest weight, gold absorbs safe-haven liquidity, while the high yield directly raises the discount rate, outweighing the exchange gains from the dollar's decline.
The rebound scenario depends on the long-term US Treasury yield falling below 4.5%. If the Treasury's bond repurchase on September 9 is sufficient, the decline in long-term rates will lift the valuation alert and drive recovery in the storage sector.
The decline scenario occurs if the repurchase effect falls short of expectations and long-term yields remain above 4.7%. If the debt risk premium persists, valuation clearance will accelerate, pushing the $SNDK target down toward the 1000 level.
If the 2-year short-term yield starts to rise sharply, it indicates the market is shifting toward rate hike expectations, and the debt premium scenario will fail.
The core focus over the next 7 days is the battle for the 10-year US Treasury yield around the 4.5% level and the actual execution details of the Treasury bond repurchase announcement on September 9.
#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战After Bitcoin's surge: Institutional funds are changing the crypto market
Recently, Bitcoin rebounded rapidly, once approaching $80,000, marking the largest single-week dollar gain in history. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH ETFs have seen massive capital inflows, indicating that institutional investors are refocusing on crypto assets.
This rally differs from past increases driven purely by retail sentiment. Expectations of liquidity from U.S. Treasury repos, improved regulatory environment, and institutional capital returning have collectively boosted market risk appetite.
More importantly, institutions are gradually viewing Bitcoin as a long-term digital asset allocation rather than just a short-term trading tool.
If ETF capital inflows continue, the crypto market may enter a new phase: price increases will no longer be driven solely by sentiment but increasingly by institutional allocation and financial infrastructure.
In the future, whether Bitcoin can continue to rise is certainly important, but what deserves more attention is whether institutional funds can form a sustained inflow. Agent Payments: From "Able to Pay" to "Authorized to Pay"
According to Decrypt, Google has released an open-source protocol for agent payments as an extension of Agent2Agent, incorporating the x402 encrypted payment extension. The AP2 documentation points out that after an autonomous agent initiates a payment, authorization, authenticity, and responsibility all need to be reconsidered.
According to the Solana Foundation, x402 enables agents to discover resources, understand prices, and make instant payments; according to the AP2 documentation, trust should be anchored in verifiable user intent rather than inferred from agent behavior.
x402 provides the payment track, while AP2 handles authorization and responsibility. The real focus is not whether the payment succeeds, but whether authorization, budget boundaries, and responsibility boundaries can be verified.
#AI #Web3 #MPC #AgenticPayments #x402 #AP2$HYPE: Buy on pullback
Or short-term "high-level test short," chasing the rally carries significant risk.
Currently, HYPE is in a high-level consolidation phase. Due to excessive futures positioning, a sharp shakeout may occur in the short term.
📊 Core basis
· Cooling of crowded longs and appearance of profit-taking: funding rates plunged 51.8% within three days, and a large holder placed a $58 million sell order (mainly in the $92-100 range) preparing to unload at high levels.
The largest on-chain long has unrealized profits exceeding $56.5 million but has paid $5.03 million in funding fees, continuously eroding costs.
· Weekly momentum divergence: price broke through $83 to a new high, but the RSI indicator is lower than the previous rally, indicating weakening upward momentum.
· Previous setback and digestion of positive news: profit-taking at $83-84 caused rejection of further advances. Additionally, the big surge driven by the White House compliance boost on August 19 may have overly exhausted the bulls.
⚠️ Risk factors
· Institutional shorting: Wintermute currently holds about $5.7 million in HYPE short positions. As a top market maker, their actions are an important reference for market risk appetite.
· Shakeout risk: high-level consolidation accompanied by a surge in open interest can trigger concentrated long liquidations. It is recommended to closely watch whether the $77-78 support (breakthrough support) holds; if broken, further pullbacks should be guarded against. To the upside, price must stabilize above $84 to confirm price discovery.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径