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$BTC is currently priced at about $78,900, up over 22% for the week, showing a strong rebound.
Institutional capital inflow is the main driver: the US spot ETF recorded the strongest weekly inflow in nearly 10 months (about $1.9 billion), combined with the US Treasury expanding bond repurchases to suppress yields, a weakening dollar, and short squeeze pressure, BTC has strongly broken through the $60-67k range, approaching the $80k psychological level. BTC dominance has risen to about 59%, highly correlated with gold, intensifying the narrative of scarce assets.
Technically, the bullish structure remains intact (above key moving averages), but the daily RSI is overbought (around 78-82), with sentiment entering greed/extreme greed zones, posing short-term correction risks. Key support is at $75-76k, resistance at $79.5-80.8k.
Next week’s Jackson Hole Fed speech (August 28) is an important catalyst.
In short: institutional inflows plus macro tailwinds ignite the rebound, approaching 80k but with clear overbought signals; the recommendation is to wait and watch, not chase the highs.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 BTC: Triple Selling Pressure Approaches the 80,000 Threshold, Rebound Enters the Most Testing Deep Waters of Patience
In August, BTC staged a desperate counterattack, surging from a low of $64,000 to a high of $79,400, with a weekly gain exceeding 24%. The total short liquidations across the network surpassed $2.7 billion, setting the highest single-day liquidation record since 2021. As of August 25, BTC was oscillating narrowly around $78,900, just a step away from the $80,000 integer mark. Behind this seemingly smooth rise, the market is entering the most testing deep waters of patience—triple selling pressure from historical trapped positions, miner sell-offs, and institutional unwind is stacking near the $80,000 level, while the short squeeze momentum that drove the rally has been fully exhausted. The next phase will truly test the quality of the capital.
The first layer of selling pressure comes from the concentrated unwinding of historical trapped positions. The $78,000–$82,000 range is a dense chip zone formed at the end of 2025 and was previously recognized by the market as the "policy bottom" expectation area. A large amount of retail capital entered here to bottom-fish but then got deeply trapped due to policy shifts. Glassnode data shows that the average holding cost for US spot BTC ETF holders is about $82,465, and BlackRock's IBIT holders have an even higher cost of $82,206. This means the current price level is exactly the critical point for large-scale trapped positions to unwind; the closer the price gets to $80,000, the more concentrated the unwinding pressure becomes. This is the core reason why every rally near $79,000 recently has quickly pulled back.
The second layer of selling pressure comes from miners' structural liquidation. After the price rose above $70,000, mining companies moved from loss to profit zones, significantly increasing their motivation to cash out. Data shows that the weighted average cash cost of listed mining companies falls between $76,000 and $80,000. The closer the price is to $80,000, the thicker the miners' marginal profits, and the larger the scale of transfers to exchanges for liquidation. Unlike retail investors' emotional trades, miner selling pressure is a long-term, stable structural sell-off that continuously releases during the rally, precisely suppressing the price's upward slope. During this rebound, miners' daily transfer volume to exchanges has tripled compared to the June low, becoming the most stable short force.
The third layer of selling pressure comes from early institutional funds distributing at highs. During this rebound, while leading ETF funds concentrated their entries, existing institutions have been cashing out at highs. In the past three days, a whale address has cumulatively sold over 7,700 BTC, precisely hitting the $79,000 level; Grayscale's GBTC continues to redeem, steadily releasing hundreds of millions of dollars in selling pressure weekly. This creates a turnover pattern of "new institutions building positions at lows to support the market, old institutions distributing at highs to take profits," which also determines that BTC is unlikely to experience a one-sided violent surge but will more likely digest selling pressure gradually through oscillating upward movement.
Fortunately, the capital support remains solid, providing a safety cushion for the market. On August 21, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $307 million, with BlackRock's IBIT single product contributing $239.3 million, accounting for over 70%. The logic of leading institutions concentrating their positions remains unchanged. On a weekly basis, net inflows reached $1.92 billion, the highest single-week record since October 2025, showing strong institutional capital support. On-chain data also shows that long-term holders control 83% of BTC chips, the highest proportion since December 2023, indicating very stable underlying chips.
The core short-term variable is the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting from August 27 to 29. Under the baseline scenario, the new Fed Chair Wash maintains a "data-dependent, no forward guidance" communication strategy, and BTC will likely continue to oscillate and turnover between $75,000 and $81,000, taking 2-3 weeks to digest the triple selling pressure and steadily raise the market's average holding cost. Under an optimistic scenario, a dovish signal hinting at rate cuts in Q4 could help BTC break through the $80,000 threshold with capital relay, reaching the $82,000–$83,000 chip gap zone. Under a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance might trigger a pullback to $72,000–$73,000, but deep drops are unlikely due to institutional base support.
From a mid-term perspective, if the Fed officially starts a rate-cut cycle in September and ETFs maintain weekly net inflows above $1 billion, the triple selling pressure will gradually be digested amid oscillations, and BTC is expected to challenge the previous high of $88,000 in Q4. Overall, BTC is currently in the middle stage of valuation repair, entering a deep zone of concentrated selling pressure in the short term, making oscillations inevitable, but the mid-term logic of oscillating upward remains intact. The recommended strategy is a mid-term approach: hold base positions, accumulate in batches near $75,000 on pullbacks, avoid blindly chasing highs or shorting lightly, and patiently wait for direction confirmation after turnover is complete. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
This week, the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting officially begins, and Warsh's public debut this time will be a key variable affecting the entire market.
After the July FOMC meeting, Warsh did not release a clear policy direction, and the market's doubts about the Fed's subsequent path have not dissipated. The market most wants to get an answer from this speech: on which core indicators does the Fed base its adjustments to the subsequent interest rate trajectory. If the statement remains vague, the entire market will continue to fluctuate amid uncertainty about rate hike expectations.
This week will also see the release of a batch of key economic indicators such as the PCE price index, GDP revision data, and durable goods orders, used to verify the stickiness of inflation. The market will not be determined solely by the speech; data and officials' remarks will resonate together, jointly influencing risk asset pricing.
On the chart, $BTC has repeatedly hit resistance and fallen back in the 79500‑80000 range, currently fluctuating around 77500. The price has already reflected reality: above the 80,000 mark, incremental chasing funds have already run out of steam.
Two scenarios can be simply deduced: if Warsh's overall tone leans hawkish, then around 80,000 is very likely to become a phase high for this round of the market, with a pullback target of 74000‑75000; if a more dovish signal is released, then after breaking through 80,000, the upside space will be fully opened.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 The deadliest illusion in a bull market is not a K-line breakdown, but the collective cerebral climax of "this time the logic is flawless."
When liquidity floods the market and prices defy gravity, the market spontaneously generates countless sophisticated narratives—metaverse new paradigms, Web3 value internet, zero-knowledge proofs reconstructing trust. Each argument is so self-consistent it’s suffocating, as if the technological shackles of the old era have been completely shattered. But history repeatedly proves: bubbles never burst amid doubt, only quietly peak amid unanimous conviction.
The faith in BTC has transformed from the romantic imagination of "digital gold" into cold numbers on sovereign fund balance sheets. Its ultimate moat is not technology, but the "compliant options" in the world’s largest liquidity pool—this is a double-edged gift. ETH’s crossroads lie in that the more successful the Rollup-centric roadmap is, the more diminished the mainnet’s presence as a settlement layer becomes. SOL’s do-or-die battle is whether Firedancer can turn theoretical maximum throughput into hard metrics in real-world scenarios, rather than another testnet show mocked for congestion. If it cannot support real-world order books and high-frequency demands, its high speed will ultimately be just a roller coaster in an amusement park.
My portfolio has only one iron rule: when the industry enters a glacial period and everyone is questioning roadmaps and mocking milestones, does this ecosystem still answer everything with code? Only survivors who have endured the deep bear market of 2018 and the crash season of 2022 are qualified to discuss the coordinates for the next decade. I've also held this kind of position — all indicators say it should drop, yet it just stays flat 🧊
Holding a short position until now, I can understand your current state — all indicators say it should fall, RSI oscillates between 78-86 in the overbought zone, the fear and greed index is at 79, just one point shy of extreme greed, the long-short ratio is 4:1, BNB whales have unrealized profits of $120 million, and there are four times more shorts than longs. The logic and reasons for the drop you want are all readily available; you could even say the market has given enough "time to correct" signals, but the price still remains high, like a mountain unmoved by any reason.
Why won't it drop?
Because the pricing power is currently in the hands of the bulls, and indicators are lagging. An overbought RSI doesn't necessarily mean a drop; it can stay overbought for a long time — at the end of 2020, BTC's RSI stayed above 80 for several consecutive weeks, during which the price rose from 20,000 to 40,000. The fear and greed index staying above 75 often lasts longer than most expect. In a bull market, FOMO is not a risk, it's fuel. A long-short ratio dominated by shorts is often proven wrong in trending markets — the more shorts, the more rocket fuel.
Technically, the answer has already been given: as long as EMA30 isn't broken, the trend hasn't changed.
Since last week's rebound, BTC has been walking above EMA30. As long as this line holds, the current sideways movement is a consolidation, not a top. The correction you're waiting for will most likely come, but not now. The real top doesn't appear during sideways consolidation at a high level; it appears when everyone thinks "this time it really broke out," then volume surges and reverses.
If you're reluctant to close your short stop loss now and are waiting for a correction to reduce losses or make a profit — then wait.
But while waiting, you need to think clearly about one thing: if this correction really comes, where will it likely pull back to? EMA30 is roughly in the 68,000-70,000 range, which is also the range Jiang Zhuoer mentioned: "If it falls back to 67,000-72,000, I will buy all in." If your short stop loss space can cover this range, you can hold on a bit longer; if not, the current sideways movement might just be slowing your losses, not helping you break even.
Don't fight the structure, don't fight the trend. Instead of holding shorts and repeatedly doubting your judgment, wait for the structure to give you an answer — EMA30 breaks, or price surges with volume again. Until then, the trend is on the bulls' side.
#BTC #ETH #shorting #tradingpsychology $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 When semiconductors crash and $BTC surges to 80,000, what exactly is the market trading?
Tuesday's market sent a split signal to everyone: Bitcoin hit $80,000 again after 101 days, soaring nearly 30% in a week; meanwhile, Nvidia fell 3%, $MU dropped 5.8%, and the Nasdaq closed down 0.76%.
The same pool of capital, the same macro environment, yet crypto assets and tech stocks moved in completely opposite directions.
This situation itself is worth pausing to consider.
The direct trigger for this round of movement is geopolitical. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the launch of the "Economic Pariah Action," further cutting off Iran from the global financial system. The U.S.-Iran conflict has lasted nearly six months, the Strait of Hormuz remains not fully reopened, and nuclear deal negotiations are deadlocked. The most immediate consequence of escalating sanctions is a tightening of crude oil supply expectations, potentially pushing oil prices higher again, adding uncertainty to inflation and thus affecting the Fed's rate cut path.
Interestingly, the market gave two completely different price reactions to the same news: Bitcoin rose, semiconductors fell.
Optimists will tell you that the more the U.S. dollar-dominated financial sanctions system expands, the stronger the demand from non-dollar economies for alternative stores of value and settlement tools becomes. Bitcoin's "de-sovereign" narrative gains unprecedented support under this logic. Last week's $2.6 billion ETF inflow seems to confirm this — institutions are viewing Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge.
But if you truly believe this logic, the next question is: if rising oil prices push inflation expectations back up and U.S. Treasury yields rebound, can Bitcoin still hold up on the "digital gold" story? Bitcoin's rise over the past week largely relied on interest rate declines driven by U.S. Treasury repurchases. Once this external condition reverses, the foundation supporting the $80,000 level will weaken. More directly, Bitcoin has yet to be tested in any real stagflation environment.
Another detail worth noting: after reaching $80,000, Bitcoin quickly retreated to $77,898, with a 24-hour gain narrowing to 1.25%. Selling pressure at the 80,000 mark is real, and trading volume did not significantly increase. This price action indicates a lack of consensus on the breakout, with market participants still divided at the current price level. Whether last week's $2.6 billion ETF inflow continued in the first two trading days of this week remains unverified. If inflows slow down, combined with geopolitical risk aversion, $80,000 may only be a short-term peak rather than the start of a trend breakout.
A deeper contradiction lies in the fact that institutional signals are not unified. BlackRock and Morgan Stanley increased positions against the trend in Q2, while Harvard and Citi retreated. One side is bottom-fishing, the other is reducing holdings; even professional institutions differ greatly in pricing the same asset. This shows the market currently lacks a widely accepted valuation anchor. Bitcoin's rise reflects more the capture of liquidity premium than the establishment of a fundamental narrative.
So the core question now is not "Can Bitcoin reach 100,000?" but "What exactly is the current price pricing in?"
If it prices in geopolitical hedging and dollar substitution, this rally's logic is long-term; if it only prices in short-term liquidity overflow from U.S. Treasury repurchases, it may just be an arbitrage within a macro window.
How long will U.S.-Iran sanctions last? Will oil prices push inflation higher again? Can ETF inflows be sustained? Can Bitcoin complete turnover and volume breakout near 80,000?
The answers to these three questions will determine the nature of this rebound. And the nature of this rebound will decide whether Bitcoin becomes a new anchor in global asset allocation over the next six months or just another bubble fueled by liquidity excess.
What’s your take? What exactly is the market pricing in?
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $ETH BTC surged close to $80,000 in this wave, but open interest actually dropped to a two-month low.
This signal isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Price is rising while contract positions are decreasing, indicating that a large number of shorts have already been cleared out, and the market hasn't immediately piled on a large batch of high-leverage longs. Compared to "the higher the price rises, the more leverage stacks up," the current structure is actually much cleaner.
But on the other hand, it's also clear: the fuel for the short squeeze has been largely burned.
If BTC wants to keep pushing higher, it can't rely solely on short liquidations to drive the price; it depends on whether spot and ETF funds can continue to support it.
What’s more important than watching liquidations next is to see if the price can continue to strengthen in sync when open interest starts rising again. $BTC Many people are curious why Trump suddenly became the "number one promoter" of Bitcoin $BTC. Actually, there's a big game behind this, and the answer lies entirely in the bond market.
Simply put, the U.S. urgently needs to find buyers for its massive debt, and cryptocurrency is their new tool.
Think about it: when interest rates rise in Japan, the money that used to buy U.S. bonds flows back, reducing buyers of U.S. bonds, and interest rates are about to become uncontrollable. What to do? The U.S. government steps in directly, not only expanding bond repurchases but also preparing to use cash from the treasury to inject liquidity.
The most critical step comes next: who will buy these short-term debts? The answer is stablecoin companies. Because by law, for every 1 dollar of stablecoin issued, they must buy 1 dollar of U.S. Treasury bonds. In other words, the hotter the crypto market, the more stablecoins are issued, and the easier it is to sell U.S. Treasury bonds.
This forms a perfect closed loop: the government floods the market to save the bond market, the crypto market rises accordingly; the more crypto rises, the easier it is for the U.S. to borrow.
So, Trump's strong support for Bitcoin is not about faith but about maintaining the dollar's hegemony and solving the U.S. debt crisis. When confidence in U.S. debt wanes, Bitcoin $BTC becomes the "digital gold" the U.S. uses to hedge risk. Understanding this logic reveals just how deep the waters are behind this market trend!→ Bitmine now holds about 5.85 million ETH, which is nearly 4.8% of the total Ethereum supply. The company thus remains the largest corporate treasury in ETH. → Tom Lee's strategy is clear: to gradually approach his goal of 5% of the ETH supply while staking a significant portion of the holdings. ► Why is this important? → A company controlling nearly 1 ETH out of 20 becomes a major institutional player in the ecosystem. → This strengthens egHaving been involved in the crypto circle for several years, I've come to realize that "slow" is actually the fastest way.
When I first entered, I was eager to double my money in a day, but nearly lost my principal.
Later, I changed my approach: I buy a little spare money every month and treat it as if it's lost.
When I buy $BTC, I put it in a cold wallet, write the password on a note, tuck the note inside a book, and stash the book on top of a cabinet.
Want to sell? You have to get a ladder, flip through the book, find the note—it's so troublesome that I just don't sell.
This trick helped me survive several big crashes, and in the end, my returns were better than constantly trading around.
I haven't even tried simulated contracts because I know I can't afford to lose.
I quit all the news groups except one, and that's only because the group owner is my cousin.
Now he posts health videos there every day, which is much better than posting coin price links.
My current judgment method is simple: when the market vendors are all talking about stocks, it's time to sell a bit.
When no one mentions making money, it's time to slowly buy a bit.
I staked a little $ETH, and the interest I earn is enough to buy two milk teas every month.
Though not much, that's a real sweet treat you can actually enjoy, more tangible than floating profits in an account.
I only add to my position under one condition: when the price keeps falling until even the complaints stop.
At that time, I close my eyes and add a little, then turn off the computer and go to sleep.
I set my stop loss at 15% below cost; when it hits, I cut losses and then go run a couple of laps downstairs.
After running and sweating, it's much better than staring at a losing screen.
When I make money, I first take out half and convert it into something tangible.
Last month, I took some out to buy a new fridge for my family; now it's much easier to enjoy chilled watermelon.
That cool, sweet reality can't be matched by any number of zeros in an account.
I only have a tiny bit of $SOL left, bought at a high point years ago, now just a little bookmark in my notebook.
Every time I open it and see it, it reminds me not to get carried away; good things also need to wait for a good price.
Now I spend no more than two minutes checking the market daily, set alerts, then shut down the computer.
The time saved I use to learn hand-pulled noodles—kneading, rolling, cutting—which is much more relaxing than watching K-line charts.
A bowl of hot noodles down the hatch beats any price rise or fall for comfort.
Finally, one sentence: treat the crypto circle as a piggy bank, not a gambling table, and life will steadily move forward. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 2.6 billion USD flowing back, what exactly are institutions buying?
In the past week, $BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 1.9 billion USD, and $ETH ETFs nearly 700 million USD, totaling 2.6 billion. BTC returned to 80,000 USD, ETH surpassed 2,500 USD, and short liquidations exceeded 4 billion USD. The data looks great, and market sentiment has quickly warmed.
But looking over a longer period, in Q2 these two ETFs had a combined net outflow of about 3.5 billion USD. The current 2.6 billion inflow fills most of that gap but hasn’t fully covered it. In other words, this looks more like previously exited funds re-entering rather than entirely new incremental capital coming in.
What’s more intriguing is the trigger. The spark for this rebound was the U.S. Treasury announcing at least a doubling of long-term bond repurchases, causing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to drop from 5.34% to 5.19%, the dollar weakened, and liquidity overflowed. Bitcoin’s rise is largely a byproduct of macro policy changes rather than a fundamental shift in crypto.
Another often overlooked factor is short liquidations. Forced closure of 4 billion USD in shorts created passive buying that amplified gains in the short term, but this is fundamentally different from institutions’ active strategic allocations. Price discovery driven by short squeezes usually requires subsequent genuine buying to confirm.
Institutions themselves haven’t reached consensus. In Q2, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley increased positions against the trend, but Harvard University liquidated its Ethereum ETF and significantly cut Bitcoin holdings, while Citi lowered target prices under outflow pressure. Buying on one side and selling on the other shows even professional institutions have clear disagreements on current price levels and long-term logic.
Therefore, the true quality of this rebound depends on the coming weeks: how long will the liquidity bonus from Treasury repurchases last? Can Bitcoin hold steady near 80,000 USD and attract new long-term holders? If the answers are yes, then this 2.6 billion could mark the start of a new trend; if liquidity recedes and prices quickly fall back, it will ultimately be just an arbitrage event within a macro window.
Markets always speak through price, but the nature of the capital behind the price determines how far the rebound can go.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Bitcoin has climbed back above the $77,000 mark, and Ethereum is gradually approaching $2,400. This rebound is driven by both spot ETF inflows and short covering. Over the past week, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $1.6 billion. The return of institutional funds has clearly warmed market sentiment, making this the most solid support point for the current rally. 📈 However, if we shift our focus away from the two major leaders, we find that altcoins are still in a delicate position. Tokens like BEAT, BICO, KAITO, LAB, and SNDK have not kept pace with major assets, lacking sustained buying and resulting in uneven price performance. This kind of divergence itself reminds us that the current rally is not a widespread phenomenon but rather a clear selectivity. The real question worth considering is whether capital will spread outward from Bitcoin and Ethereum. If you rely solely on institutional buying in the ETF channel, the path for liquidity transmission is actually limited, since most of this capital is concentrated in mainstream assets. For altcoins to truly strengthen, they need to see the overall increase in spot market trading volume and more tokens forming higher low structures during pullbacks, rather than passively following the leaders' movements. From the current market structure, this seems more like a Bitcoin-led recovery rally than the prelude to the altcoin season. Short-covering rallies often come quickly, but can also relapse after sentiment cools. If we don't see sustained trading volume, then expectations for altcoins should remain patient. 🪙 Risk warning: The crypto market is highly volatileSaylor's latest disclosure shows that as of August 23, Strategy holds approximately 840,447 BTC, about 4% of the total BTC supply, with net leverage close to 0; meanwhile, the company has increased its USD Reserve to $5.1 billion, newly established $1.59 billion USD Cash, and repurchased about $136 million STRC. Strategy did not add any new BTC in the past week.
More notably, Saylor added that this new USD Cash can be used for future BTC purchases, paying preferred stock dividends and interest, repurchasing MSTR/preferred stock, repaying convertible bonds, and continuing to expand the USD reserve. In other words, this is not simply "bearish BTC to cash," but more like actively increasing capital allocation optionality.
Why I think this is worth attention: Strategy now holds a total of about $6.69 billion in USD liquidity reserves, and it has historically been one of the most aggressive corporate BTC buyers globally. The market used to interpret "Saylor Monday updates" as continued coin buying, but now with consecutive pauses in adding BTC, while increasing cash and repurchasing STRC, it indicates that Strategy's capital allocation logic is clearly becoming more flexible. #FinancialReportObserver: Led by NVIDIA, AI returns enter the validation phase
NVDA current price $208.48, down 2.91% in a single day, earnings data is impressive but stock price weakens, market logic has changed.
The past two years were about frantically investing in expanding computing power, now officially entering the input-output validation stage. Cloud providers will not buy chips endlessly; whether AI projects can make money will determine the intensity of future computing power procurement.
Positive factors: NVIDIA's computing power orders remain full, Blackwell chip shipments are stable, data center revenue still contributes 90% of income, the fundamentals are very solid.
Risks: Marginal growth slows, customers begin to develop their own chips, competitive pressure gradually increases, purely exceeding earnings expectations is already hard to trigger a big surge.
Market linkage
$BTC｜$76710, resistance at 79000, support at 73800. AI sector sentiment decline will indirectly affect computing power concept coins in the crypto space.
$ETH｜$2445, resistance at 2500, support at 2390. Overall market trend is still primarily constrained by US Treasury yields.
Key focus going forward: Whether cloud providers show signs of capital expenditure contraction; if AI profits fall short of expectations, the risk of correction in high valuation sectors increases.
Personal market record only, does not constitute any investment advice. CORE's trend reminds me of YOUChain I played many years ago. That sense of familiarity doesn't come from a single indicator, but from the combination of candlestick patterns, community atmosphere, and project team styles. The project team doesn't push the market, only focuses on work. The community endures a long sideways market, with occasional calls for orders, but more often silence. When some external conditions mature, there suddenly hits a sharp rally, then slowly returns to zero. If you also remember YOUChain, then you probably understand what I'm talking about. CORE gives me the feeling that it's a kind of copy of YOU—not a technical copy, but a replay of fate. I'm not talking down it; on the contrary, this "not reselling" state actually makes me feel the project is still alive. The real danger lies with coins that hit the peak at the top and then fell silently without any movement. At least CORE is still maintaining a certain rhythm, as if waiting for an opportunity. However, for ordinary holders, this kind of waiting tests patience and, above all, trust in the project team's intentions. Another factor that made me weigh it repeatedly was ASTER. The market generally does not rate it highly; within the DEX ecosystem, it is not even mainstream, and compared to HYPE, it is more of a marginal player. But I still chose to buy, and the reason sounded a bit counterintuitive because it was abnormally weak. Behind the scenes, there is BNB's support, and WLFI is officially announced as the only partner, with liquidity continuously injected. Despite all these positive factors piling up, prices remained steadyThe most glaring thing on the chessboard is not the checkmated king, but the sudden crack in what you thought was an impregnable pawn chain. This week, tech earnings reports are like a series of forced moves, with every piece shouting: Look at me! But what you really need to listen to is the breathing behind the throne.
NVIDIA is the queen, applying pressure to the center with every move; Synopsys is the bishop, quietly controlling the flanks along the long diagonal of chip design; Salesforce is the rook, charging straight into the open lines of enterprise orders; CrowdStrike is the knight, leaping through the jungle of security defenses; Okta and Marvell, one like a nimble pawn, the other like a rook on standby. The pieces are all gathered, but they don’t necessarily make a good game.
The key in the middle game is coordination. The demand for computing power in hardware is the central pawn chain. As long as this pawn chain keeps advancing, the market is willing to give the king’s valuation some room. But if you find that in the software camp’s earnings reports, those so-called “customers paying for intelligent features” stories only show costs without revenue—that’s like your bishops and knights standing on the eighth rank, looking fierce but actually controlling not a single square.
True masters will choose to sacrifice pieces here. For example, giving up a quarter’s profit margin to gain a strategic central square. But conversely, if all players use “infrastructure investment” as a defensive shield, the game turns into a prolonged exchange of pieces—no one wants to move first, and no one has a real killer move.
Endgame thinking tells us: the winner is never the fastest rook, but the one who prepared a path for the endgame right from the opening. Position management is the same—when signals show strong hardware but weak software, the dumbest response is to push all pawns into enemy lines; the smartest is to adjust the formation, giving yourself enough time to wait for that delayed e5 from software.
So, don’t ask who the winner is this week. What you really need to ask is—your opponent has already revealed the posture of the rear flank, and your minor pieces are still gathering dust in the corner. How are you going to respond to this move? #aiearningswatchThe 10-year government bond yield has hit 4.7%, yet the market still claims liquidity is ample? It's like standing under a supertall building that's not yet topped out, watching the core tube's steel rebar groan with metal fatigue in the wind, while the general contractor holds a walkie-talkie and tells you: "Don't worry, the concrete pump truck is still operating normally."
Kashkari's message is clear: the load-bearing walls haven't cracked, the tower crane hasn't tilted, so there's no need to adjust the grout mix. But any real structural engineer knows—when the wind vibration frequency starts approaching the building's natural frequency, what you need isn't reassurance, but to check whether the dampers are actually working.
The Ministry of Finance raised the 10-30 year repo limit from 2 billion directly to 4 billion—what kind of move is this? It's like installing an active mass damper on a skyscraper. It doesn't change the structural system or reduce the total height; it just places a huge pendulum on the top floor to swing in the wind, absorbing the sway that makes residents dizzy. The 30-year yield immediately fell back, indicating the damper did absorb some wind energy—the building sways less, but it's still the same building, with the same load.
What does the repo program solve? Market liquidity, smoothing the debt management curve. It's not an elevator, not a tower crane, and certainly not a red pen changing the design plan. When the three pile drivers of deficit, issuance volume, and inflation expectations simultaneously hammer underground, the repo on the surface is just painting the fence around the foundation pit—looks good, safe, but doesn't change the soil conditions deep in the foundation.
**The real structural problem is: if the wind field has permanently changed, the damper can keep the building upright, but can it reduce costs? Can it shorten the construction period?**
The capital market target now is a linked observation: to see if the repo operation can act like temporary support, giving the front end of the yield curve some breathing room. But support is support; it is neither prestressed steel strands nor a giant transfer beam that changes the load-bearing system.
A 4.7% yield is the inherent frequency of the current structure. A 4 billion repo makes this frequency sound less harsh. But what really determines whether this building can stand firm in a once-in-a-century storm has never been the damper—but the foundation, cross-sectional dimensions, and material strength.
This building is still growing taller, and the wind is still getting stronger. Dampers are necessary, but don't mistake them for new pile foundations. #treasurybuybacktest$ETH last night BTC touched 79,870, just shy of breaking 80,000, ETH peaked only around $2,530 (intraday on 8/24), hitting a new high since February but not surpassing the pre-rebound high on August 19, nor touching the all-time high of 4,953 on 2025/8/24. Daily gains were about 2%–3.7%, clearly lagging behind BTC's short squeeze rhythm—not because ETH is weak, but because this rally wasn't originally meant for ETH.
Breaking down last night's market:
BTC's rise was driven by a "macro + short squeeze" dual engine: the US Treasury extended long-term bond repos to suppress long-end yields, spot BTC ETFs absorbed $1.92 billion in a single week (the strongest since last October), and over $4 billion in short positions were liquidated in three days. BTC surged from 62,800 to 79,800, pushed by institutions and short-covering.
ETH's rise was "brought along": ETH's weekly gain in the same period was about 29% (BTC about 21–24%), seemingly not bad, but when BTC surged to 79.8K last night, ETH did not simultaneously break its previous high. The ETH/BTC ratio only returned to 0.0318, far from the August 2025 high of 0.043, and even further from 0.085 in 2021—still crawling at a low relative to BTC.
Capital is "doing subtraction": The Fed maintains 3.5%–3.75%, 30Y US Treasury near 5.3%, institutions want assets that can be explained "in one sentence" = digital gold BTC; ETH's narrative (staking yields + L2 + RWA + AI settlement) is too complex, fund managers hear "higher risk, more variables," so ETF inflows into BTC are about 2.7 times that of ETH ($1.92 billion vs $697 million).
ETH itself has "internal injuries": After Dencun, L2s siphoned off mainnet Gas and burn volume, breaking the "ultrasound money" deflation logic; mainnet usage is lively but value doesn't flow back to the circulation layer; plus, early August saw net outflows from ETH ETFs, on-chain whales transferred tens of thousands of tokens adding selling pressure, high elasticity but weak absorption.
So why was ETH "weaker than BTC" last night?
BTC is running an independent "macro hedge + short squeeze repair" rally, ETH is still waiting for its catalysts (continued net inflows in spot ETFs, L2 value flowing back to mainnet, RWA volume increase, Glamsterdam upgrade).
Until then, ETH is a high Beta follower: when BTC rallies, short covering pulls ETH up; when BTC consolidates, ETH weakens first; when BTC dips, ETH falls harder.
In the early bull market, watch BTC solo; mid-term, ETH catches up.
Now if ETH/BTC doesn't break the 0.035 weekly lifeline, don't take "ETH weakness" as a bottom-fishing signal, but as a sign that capital preference hasn't shifted yet.
Key levels (actionable):
ETH USD: Hold above 2,400 to keep bulls intact; break 2,300 to revisit 2,150–2,200 consolidation zone; surpass 2,530 last night's high to qualify for testing 2,700.
ETH/BTC: Current at 0.0318, weekly close above 0.035 means "rotation truly begins"; break below 0.029 to revisit recent lows and continue to be under pressure.
Rhythm judgment: BTC stands firm at 80K weekly close → ETH will be led to break 2,530; BTC falls back to 74K → ETH first drops below 2,300 $ETH 🚨 $BTC IS APPROACHING $80K BUT THE NEXT MOVE MATTERS MORE THAN THE PUMP
Bitcoin has pushed through the $78K–$79K region and is now getting dangerously close to the psychological $80,000 level.
The move has been impressive.
$BTC is up roughly 22–24% over the past week, marking one of its strongest dollar moves in recent history.
But what makes this rally different is that it isn't being driven by just one factor.
🟠 ETF DEMAND IS BACK
One of the biggest catalysts has been institutional demand.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly attracted around $1.92B in inflows last week.
That is significant because ETF flows represent a much different source of demand than leveraged futures positioning.
Short liquidations can push price higher quickly.
But sustained spot demand can help keep the market elevated after the initial squeeze.
That’s exactly what traders need to watch now.
Does the money continue coming in after BTC reaches $80K?
If yes, the current rally could have more foundation than a simple short squeeze.
📜 REGULATION IS ADDING ANOTHER CATALYST
Regulatory optimism surrounding the CLARITY Act is also improving sentiment.
For institutional investors, regulatory clarity can be just as important as price.
The more uncertainty decreases, the easier it becomes for larger players to consider increasing exposure to digital assets.
So the current environment has several supportive factors working together:
ETF inflows + improving regulatory sentiment + strong momentum.
That combination deserves respect.
⚠️ BUT BTC IS GETTING EXTENDED
This is where things become more complicated.
The RSI is around 78, which indicates that Bitcoin is entering strongly overbought territory on the relevant timeframe.
That doesn't mean:
“BTC must crash.”
Overbought markets can remain overbought during powerful trends.
But after a move of more than 20% in a week, expecting some consolidation or profit-taking isn't unreasonable.
The $79.5K–$80K region is now the key battlefield.
If BTC reaches $80K and immediately gets rejected, we could see a healthy pullback.The market closed on August 24 Eastern Time (morning of August 25, Beijing time), with a focus on the storage industry chain analysis. 1. Overnight Overview of US Stocks The three major indices showed significant divergence: the Dow closed higher against the trend, while the Nasdaq led the decline. The core driver came from an extreme shift in market style: before Nvidia's earnings report, tech stocks continued to take profits, with funds flowing out from high-valuation AI tracks to traditional value blue chips for safe havens; Combined with Samsung Electronics' plunge affecting global memory sentiment, the semiconductor sector has become the hardest-hit area. • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.26%, closed at 53,417.16, with consumer goods and financials leading the support index • S&P 500: -0.28%, closing at 7,652.86; eleven major sectors showed mixed gains, with consumer discretionary, utilities, and financials rising over 1%, while information technology fell 1.59%, leading the decline. • Nasdaq Composite Index: -0.76%, closing at 25,980.19; semiconductor and AI hardware sectors pulled back sharply, dragging the index down • Fear Index VIX: Edged up to 17.8, pre-event risk aversion remains high. • Trading characteristics: Sector rotation is extreme, with capital flowing out of the tech growth sector sharply, semiconductor ETFs falling 2.43% in a single day; Value blue chips saw net capital inflows, and the divergence between the Dow and Nasdaq reached its highest level in recent times. Core feature of the market: A style switch with strong value and weak growth has been fully executed. Nvidia has fallen for seven consecutive days, marking the longest losing streak since 2022, putting pressure on the AI industry chain as a whole; Samsung Electronics Korean stocks#ZEC hits a new all-time high on the site, privacy assets revalued
Latest data
$ZEC has reached a new phase high, with short-term RSI overbought; resistance at $880‑920, support at 750. This has driven the same sector's XMR to strengthen in sync, with sector trading volume exploding, and the overall trend tied to the $BTC market.
Market consensus
The privacy narrative is booming, the sector is undergoing value revaluation, and the main upward trend is expected to continue.
Underlying logic analysis
The rise is driven by intensified on-chain monitoring, halving supply contraction, and institutional attention resonance. ZEC offers an optional privacy mode, balancing some compliance space; XMR enforces mandatory privacy by default, with higher privacy purity but greater regulatory risk. This is a theme rotation market, with huge short-term gains, and privacy coins also experience sharp pullbacks during market corrections.
Personal view (personal preference for a gradual bull market return, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
The sector narrative logic holds, but short-term bubbles are obvious. Do not chase highs in ZEC and XMR, limit to small positions for speculation, closely watch the $750 support, and reduce holdings first if the market weakens. lstBTC Institutional Version Officially Released: Technical Interfaces Connected, Capital Inflow Pending On-Chain Verification
CORE's lstBTC institutional version has been officially released, achieving technical integration with leading crypto custodians BitGo, Copper, and Hex Trust.
This news quickly spread throughout the community, with many interpreting it as a sign that large institutional BTC inflows will immediately flood the ecosystem.
However, in the crypto industry, product launches and interface integrations are completely different stages from actual institutional capital deployment and business operations; these should not be conflated.
I. Established Objective Facts
1. The lstBTC institutional product development is complete, with technical integration finalized with top custodians and an official announcement made. Institutions now have the technical capability to stake BTC and mint lstBTC within the existing custody framework.
2. Addresses a core institutional pain point: BTC assets do not need to leave the custodian to participate in BTC-Fi staking and earn yields, completing the ecosystem’s product puzzle for B2B clients.
3. This marks an important milestone in the CORE BTC-Fi roadmap.
II. Realistic Boundaries to Consider
1. Technical integration completed ≠ Custodians have opened this service to their institutional clients.
Interface connection means technical readiness only; custodians still need to complete internal risk control, compliance reviews, and product listing processes before offering it to their asset management and fund clients. The project-side announcement does not mean commercial availability to end institutional clients.
2. Currently, the vast majority of on-chain staked BTC comes from retail users; no large-scale or bulk lstBTC minting records from custodians have been observed.
Theoretically, the potential market is large, but potential scale does not equal existing on-chain supply. Future growth must be verified by on-chain data.
3. Even if institutional BTC staking scales up, the protocol’s revenue conversion mechanism into CORE token buyback and burn remains in the planning stage.
Institutional business growth benefits the entire BTC-Fi narrative; however, increased business volume does not automatically or directly translate into rigid token value capture.
4. Competition in the sector objectively exists; similar solutions like Babylon are also competing for custodians and institutional clients, and institutions have diverse choices.
III. Three Verifiable Signals to Track (Rely on Objective Evidence, Not News)
① Large-scale lstBTC minting on-chain, corresponding to incremental BTC staking at the thousand-coin level;
② Custodians themselves issue announcements officially opening lstBTC financial services to their institutional clients;
③ Protocol revenue buyback mechanisms are actually executed on-chain, not just documented or roadmap plans.
News announcements can be made instantly, but institutional business commercialization often follows a quarterly timeline. Positive news can trigger short-term market pulses, but true trend momentum requires confirmation from on-chain incremental data. $BTCBTC is repeatedly testing the 80,000 level, ETH is quietly rallying, and SanDisk is repaying debt—three streams of capital, three different logics.
$BTC has risen from 63,000 to 79,000 this round, driven mainly by short squeeze. Shorts were liquidated over 3 billion, and forced liquidations pushed the price up, but this is not genuine buying demand. Whether it can surpass 80,000 depends on whether spot buying can hold, not on how many shorts can still be liquidated.
ETH rose 31% this week, outperforming BTC. Capital is rotating from BTC to ETH, with ETFs seeing a net inflow of 220 million over four consecutive days. The market is betting on the arrival of altcoin season.
SanDisk dropped over 6%, with the entire storage sector hit. Rumors that Apple might source Chinese chips are suppressing the sector, and with SanDisk up over 500% this year, high-level chips are loosening and easily sold off.
Three streams of capital, three destinies. BTC is driven by short liquidations, ETH by ETF inflows, and SanDisk is repaying debts from the first half of the year.
Will it break 80,000? It depends on spot demand, not on how many shorts can still be liquidated.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Ethereum's Historical Cycle Rate Projection
⚠️For historical review only, not investment advice. Past cycles cannot be simply replicated, DYOR
Ethereum does not have a fixed four-year halving supply cycle like Bitcoin. It follows Bitcoin's macro long-term cycle and is internally driven by three variables: narrative, technical upgrades, and ecosystem explosions. Its volatility beta is significantly higher than Bitcoin's: bull markets see larger gains, bear markets deeper retracements, with historical bear market maximum drawdowns ranging from 70% to 94%.
I. Review of Three Complete Historical Cycles
Cycle 1: ICO Cycle (2016-2018)
- Bear Market Bottoming: DAO event crash, late 2016 bottom, market trust collapse, ecosystem depression
- Bull Market Driver: ICO wave, explosive demand for ERC20 token issuance
- Bull Market Peak: January 2018, approximately $1420
- Bear Market Decline: ICO bubble burst, regulatory crackdown, massive project sell-offs of ETH, bottoming near $82, maximum drawdown 94%
- Cycle Characteristics: purely narrative-driven, many technical issues, price driven by external financing demand.
Cycle 2: DeFi-NFT Cycle (2019-2022)
- Bear Market Bottoming: prolonged bottoming from late 2018 to mid-2020, DeFi underlying protocols quietly developed
- Bull Market Driver: DeFi summer, NFT explosion; EIP-1559 burn mechanism implemented
- Bull Market Peak: November 2021, $4891
- Bear Market Decline: aggressive Fed rate hikes, Terra and FTX chain collapses; despite completing the Merge upgrade and moving through "buy the rumor, sell the fact," bottomed at $879, drawdown 82%
- Cycle Characteristics: real ecosystem use cases landed, fundamental upgrades, but macro rate hikes overshadowed positives.
Cycle 3: ETF and Institutional Cycle (2023-2025)
- Bottoming and Recovery: 2023 banking crisis bottom, staking ecosystem continues expanding, L2 scaling rapidly developing
- Bull Market Driver: expectations for BTC spot ETF and ETH spot ETF, institutional capital entering
- Bull Market Peak: August 2025, $4953, setting a new all-time high
- Current Bear Market Phase: after peaking in August 2025, entering a correction cycle, ETH/BTC ratio continues declining, underperforming Bitcoin, L2 liquidity diversion and US regulatory uncertainty suppress valuations.
II. Repeated Cycle Patterns of Ethereum (Cycle Rate)
1. Follows Bitcoin's major cycle but with a time lag
Bitcoin halving is the master switch for the entire crypto market; historically, ETH's main upward wave starts 6-12 months after BTC halving; bear markets also follow BTC but ETH's retracements are generally deeper and more elastic.
2. Each bull market requires a new narrative to ignite the ecosystem
2017: ICO; 2021: DeFi+NFT; 2025: Institutional ETF;
Without a new story, it's hard to have an independent major rally; relying solely on old logic makes new highs difficult.
3. Major technical upgrades often follow "buy the rumor, sell the fact"
The Merge is an epic fundamental innovation, involving burn issuance and eliminating miner sell pressure, but after implementation, the price fell instead of rising.
After full positive expectations are priced in, the event's realization leads to a sell-off—this is a classic ETH cycle phenomenon.
4. Two necessary conditions for bear market bottoms
① Extreme market panic occurs, with large on-chain staking losses and thorough chip exchanges;
② ETH/BTC ratio falls to historically low levels, relatively devalued against Bitcoin.
Historical bottoms are accompanied by long-term weekly-level bottoming; rapid V-shaped reversals rarely form true major bottoms.
5. Bear market retracement range
ETH typical bear market retracement: 70%-83%; extreme black swan events can reach 90%+;
A full bull-bear cycle, from top to bottom and bottom consolidation, spans about 2-2.8 years.
III. Projection Based on Historical Cycle Rate for the Present
History does not simply repeat but rhymes.
1) Time Window
If August 2025 is the cycle peak, referencing history, the full bear market bottoming window likely falls between late 2026 and early 2027.
Even if a price low is hit earlier, time is needed for weekly bottoming; panic sentiment and chip clearing are both essential.
2) Two Key Observation Indicators
- ETH/BTC Ratio: only when it returns to historically very low percentiles is it a major opportunity zone for ETH's relative value;
- Narrative Catalyst: the next major ETH rally requires a new engine: RWA tokenization of real-world assets, large-scale L2 explosion, clear US regulation, or large-scale institutional capital inflow—at least one must materialize.
3) Two Scenario Projections
- Pessimistic Scenario: continued regulatory suppression, ongoing L2 liquidity diversion, ETH underperforms BTC long-term, bear market bottom further declines.
- Neutral Scenario: Fed rate cut cycle begins + regulatory clarity, after sufficient time for bottoming, a new main upward wave arrives in 2027-2028.
4) Practical Insights
Do not mistake a quick rebound for the end of the bear market;
Without immersive bottoming and extreme panic, even if a price low appears, it is likely a rebound bottom, not a cycle major bottom.
IV. Biggest Variables: What Could Break This Historical Cycle
1. US SEC classifying ETH as a security, regulatory risk is the biggest black swan;
2. Continued L2 ecosystem liquidity diversion, weakening mainnet value capture ability;
3. Large-scale institutional allocation to Bitcoin, capital continuously favoring BTC, ETH/BTC weakening long-term.
$BTC $ETH#NvidiaServerPriceHike
A 15% server price hike could reveal more about AI demand than another record earnings quarter. If customers keep ordering Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell systems despite rising memory costs, Nvidia proves it still has exceptional pricing power. If deployments get delayed, the ripple could hit memory suppliers, cloud capex and valuations. AI demand has looked almost price-insensitive so far. Higher server prices may finally tell us where customers draw the line.**BTC & ETH rise, Altcoins remain mixed**
$BTC hits $79.5K, $ETH surpasses $2.5K but many altcoins like $H, $LAB, $KAITO, $BEAT, and $SNDK remain weak. Capital flow continues to favor large-cap assets, while altcoins face thin liquidity, weak spot demand, and individual supply pressure. BTC & ETH ETFs attract about $2.6B per week, indicating selective capital rotation. This is not yet a signal of a broad Altseason. Many people only look at price changes, not the time
$BTC pulled from 76,681 to 79,999 last night, taking about 9 hours, a rise of 3,318 dollars
Now it has retraced from 79,999 to 78,802 in just 7 hours, dropping 1,197 dollars
The retracement speed is nearly twice the speed of the rise, indicating that the bears are actually stronger than the bulls
More importantly, this retracement happened after a "failed peak attempt." 79,999.8 is very likely the short-term high
Because of the dual pressure of the round number and psychological barrier, the first attempt failed, and the second attempt will need more time to build momentum
At the 15-minute level, it has already formed a descending channel with "lower highs and lower lows." Until it breaks above 79,000 again, don't talk about a "second peak attempt"
In terms of the time window, around 6 a.m. is the period with the worst liquidity, so the drop at this position may not have fully released yet
Wait for the Asian session to open; if it still can't reclaim 79,000, today will most likely be a weak consolidation day. $SOL weekly rebound of 20% to around $95 approaches the $100 resistance, with the core market conflict being the price rise driven by the overall market Beta versus the fundamental divergence of a 44% quarter-on-quarter decline in Q2 fee income.
From the price structure perspective, dense chips accumulate in the $95 to $100 range, with the $100 psychological level becoming the key resistance in the bulls vs. bears battle. Looking downward, $90 serves as a short-term support platform; breaking below it will cause the price structure to shift from strong to weak.
In terms of driving factors, overall market liquidity overflow constitutes the primary upward momentum, with RWA scale reaching $4 billion and the SGP-0002 deflation proposal providing medium- to long-term valuation support, but the Q2 fee income decline suppresses high-level sustainability.
The bullish scenario requires a volume breakout above $100. If Alpenglow upgrades reduce Slot time to 350ms and the governance deflation plan is implemented to boost trading volume, SOL will initiate a push toward $110, with the invalidation signal being a false breakout followed by a drop below $98.
The bearish scenario triggers when resistance at $100 holds. If Meme activity continues to decline after the tide recedes, the price will test the $90 support level, with the invalidation signal being $90 gaining buying support and quickly recovering.
The critical point for structural failure is set at $90. If the closing price falls below $90, it indicates the destruction of the rebound structure driven by the overall market, and the market will reprice the 44% decline in fee income.
The core variables to watch in the next 7 days are SOL’s volume turnover at the $100 level and the SGP-0002 governance voting results.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？$CORE Train Poster Goes Viral: Don't Be Swept Away by Emotions, Opportunities Won't Wait for Everyone, but Traps Won't Wait Either
An overseas community is wildly sharing a CORE "Train About to Depart" poster. The copy is highly compelling: the train won't wait for everyone; you need to position yourself before the spotlight arrives, or you'll just watch the train leave, with a direct target price of $10.
Emotional hype easily ignites expectations, but fervent slogans don't equal facts. Opportunities indeed favor those who position early, but we must distinguish between narrative imagination and on-chain real evidence.
⚠️ This article does not deny the potential of the sector; it merely analyzes the gap between promotional copy and reality and does not constitute investment advice.
Core points of the poster copy review
Current price is about $0.026, with a belief target price of $10.
Key quote:
When charts turn green and news floods in, everyone wants to enter. But before the opportunity explodes, it often isn't obvious. The train won't wait for everyone to be ready.
Buying requires confidence, managing risk, and not investing money you can't afford to lose. Please DYOR.
This is a classic crypto narrative template: lay low during market lull, then wait for the latecomers to catch on and buy in. The logic itself isn't wrong, but there are hidden premises the poster doesn't mention.
Premise 1: "The train is about to depart" means the train must truly have the power to reach its destination.
To go from $0.026 to $10, the price needs to increase by nearly hundreds of times.
Achieving this goal can't rely solely on community belief; multiple hard conditions must be met simultaneously:
1. Large-scale explosion in the BTC-Fi sector, with massive external capital flowing into BTC re-staking;
2. CORE native ecosystem TVL and DApp daily active users continuously booming, with many third-party DeFi and applications landing, not just official demo announcements;
3. Token value capture flywheel implemented, with protocol buybacks and real on-chain demand forming at scale;
4. The market has enough incremental funds to absorb the huge historical locked positions and continuous token unlocking selling pressure.
Current on-chain status: BTC staking base is solid, but native DeFi scale is weak; many partnerships remain at the intention signing stage; buyback and other mechanisms are still in roadmap planning.
The train poster depicts an ideal future outcome, but many key components are still under construction. Whether the train can depart on time is a question mark, not a given fact.
Premise 2: DYOR (Do Your Own Research) does not mean believing in a rosy story.
The poster ends with "Do your own research, not financial advice," but the entire content fuels expectations of getting rich quick.
Many people's understanding of DYOR is just reading bullish tweets and official BD news.
True DYOR means verifying on-chain data:
- Distinguish between BTC staking volume and native DeFi TVL; don't equate BTC staking scale with ecosystem prosperity;
- Differentiate official partnership announcements and POC prototypes from real mainnet operations generating transaction volume;
- Understand tokenomics, unlocking schedules, and competitive pressures in the sector.
Collecting only positive information while ignoring risks is not research; it's self-brainwashing.
Premise 3: The FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) "You'll regret if you miss it" is the most classic marketing tactic in crypto.
"If you don't position now, the train will leave, and you'll only regret chasing at a high price later" is a typical FOMO psychological guide.
But crypto has another reality: many so-called trains about to depart never reach the wealth destination; they get delayed, stop midway, or even break down.
Not every low-priced coin will get the spotlight in the future.
Low price ≠ guaranteed explosion. A quiet market could be a good opportunity or a sign of lack of project appeal.
Both outcomes objectively exist:
✅ Right bet: early positioning, sector explosion, huge gains;
❌ Wrong bet: long-term sideways, liquidity shrinkage, no departure moment for years.
The poster only highlights the first positive possibility and rarely mentions the second risk reality.
What can we learn from this post dialectically?
1. The principle is agreeable: real big opportunities often come before the hype.
The most profitable bull market positions are mostly built during market apathy; by the time charts turn green and news floods, it's often mid-to-late market phase. This is a valid trading philosophy.
2. But belief cannot replace data.
$10 is a hopeful community target, not a predetermined market script. You can keep this expectation but don't treat it as a guaranteed destiny.
Zeroing out and 100x myths are extreme scenarios; a more likely outcome is repeated mid-range volatility.
3. That advice must be taken seriously: never invest money you can't afford to lose.
The poster repeatedly reminds this, but many get fired up by the copy and then ignore risks, betting their entire wealth on the "train departure."
The train might be delayed, rerouted, or even suspended.
Summary
"The train won't wait for everyone" is a moving phrase.
But we must be clear: opportunities don't wait, and risks don't wait either.
You can choose to position during quiet times, but all confidence is best built on continuous improvement of on-chain data, not just fired-up FOMO from a passionate poster.
Wait for the ecosystem to deliver results before confirming if the train is really ready to depart.SOL Approaching the $100 Mark: Price Follows the Market, Ecosystem Quietly Working on Three Major Projects
$SOL is around $95 tonight, having risen over 20% this week along with the market, closing in on the $100 psychological barrier. But honestly, this round of SOL price increase is purely a beta rally—the real changes are on-chain, and they are significant.
RWA quietly reached a $4 billion ATH. The scale of real-world assets on Solana has hit a historic high. This sector was previously Ethereum's exclusive narrative, but now the SOL chain is capturing market share with lower costs. Which chain institutions choose for issuing bonds on-chain will be one of the decisive factors in the next cycle.
Alpenglow upgrade is accelerating. Slot time has been cut from 12 seconds to 350ms, with a final target of 150ms—confirmation speed reaching traditional payment levels. This week also marks the first-ever on-chain governance vote in history, with the SGP-0002 deflation proposal (doubling the burn ratio). If passed, SOL will shift from an "inflationary asset" to a "deflationary asset," elevating its narrative. Leading infrastructure providers like Helius and Jupiter have voted in favor.
Asian capital is entering the market. South Korea's Shinhan Bank has launched a KRW stablecoin tokenization fund, with Solana as one of the main supporting chains. Channels for institutional funds from Japan and South Korea to enter indirectly are opening, and this incremental growth story is fresher than the US ETF narrative.
There are also concerns. Network fee revenue dropped 44% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, and on-chain activity has not recovered after the meme coin craze subsided. Prices have risen, but fundamentals (fee revenue) are declining.Bitcoin's Historical Cycle Rate Projection
1. Review of Historical Cycle Retracement Data
- 2017-2018 cycle: Peak $19,800 → Bottom $3,200, maximum retracement -84%
- 2021-2022 cycle: Peak $69,000 → Bottom $15,500, maximum retracement -78%
- Current 2025-2026 cycle: Peak $126,000, based on retracement convergence rules, projected retracement -68%, corresponding price $40,000
2. Observable Cycle Patterns
1. The maximum bear market retracement is continuously narrowing
84% → 78% → projected 68%. Underlying logic: ETF institutional funds continuously entering, more long-term spot holders, larger market size, the intensity of extreme sell-offs is weaker compared to earlier periods.
2. Retracement convergence ≠ no deep drops
The smaller drop is only relative to the previous two cycles; 68% still represents a historically significant bear market correction. The pattern of large declines has not disappeared.
3. The true bottom of each cycle is born when the market is generally in despair
Bull market fantasies are completely cleared, massive leverage liquidations occur, and the community is filled with pessimistic sentiment, which tends to usher in the cycle’s major bottom.
3. Objective Assessment of the Current Market Position
Since the peak of 126,000 in this cycle, the price has retraced about 50% at most.
According to historical patterns:
If the cycle script continues, there is still downside space to the theoretically calculated bottom target of $40,000.
The current range-bound movement is merely a mid-downtrend consolidation and should not be hastily defined as the end of the bear market.
⚠️ Crucial Risk Reminder
1. Historical patterns can only serve as reference projections, not guaranteed outcomes. There are only two complete bear market samples, so direct linear application is inappropriate;
Institutional fund flows, Federal Reserve interest rates, global regulation, and geopolitical conflicts can all alter the depth and pace of this adjustment.
2. $40,000 is only a projected target; it does not mean the price will definitely fall to this level, nor that it will necessarily stabilize and reverse there.
3. Do not rely solely on cycle points to go all-in on bottom fishing. The true bottom requires multiple signals converging: on-chain chip capitulation, large-scale leverage reduction, macro liquidity turning points, and extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
Practical Strategy
Remain vigilant about downside risk and discard the mindset of "it has already dropped a lot, so it’s safe to bottom fish."
- Short-term: respond with a range-trading approach, strictly control leverage;
- Long-term positioning: use a phased strategy, keep sufficient cash reserves, and gradually increase dollar-cost averaging as the price approaches the lower projected range;
- Defensive baseline: avoid heavy positions betting on the bottom prematurely, patiently wait for multiple confirmations from sentiment, volume-price, and macro signals. $BTC Bitcoin late BTC touched a high of 79,870 USD (Kraken 24h high 79,978, some platforms' wick touched 80,000), just short of standing above 80,000, closing around 78,600.
This is not "lack of strength," but the main force deliberately braking just before 80,000—what is the intention?
Since August 19, rising from 62,800, +23% in 5 days, last night’s high was 79,870, just 130 dollars short of the 80,000 integer level without stabilizing.
Why stop exactly here?
Short squeeze nearing the end: From 8/19 to 8/21, about 4.6 billion USD in crypto short liquidations (mainly BTC), short-covering buy orders pushed the price to 79.5K, but on 8/24 when it surged to 80K, open interest (OI) did not hit a new high = not a new long attack, but the last short covering of old shorts.
80,000 is a dual wall of psychology and algorithm: 80,000 is an integer level, near the 0.382 retracement of the previous high at 126,000, and also a dense area of short sell orders. Testing this level measures selling pressure; a real breakthrough is easily countered by whales to create a "fake breakout."
ETF real money is supporting but not chasing highs: That week, spot BTC ETF net inflow was 1.9 billion USD (IBIT single day 503 million), the strongest weekly inflow since 2026, but institutions habitually "buy on dips, not chasing wicks," so no one swept at 79.8K.
Macro cards are not fully played: Core PCE on 8/26, NVDA earnings, Jackson Hole (Warsh’s debut) all in the latter half of this week; the main force does not want to bear macro risk above 80,000 for the shorts.
So the "intention" in one sentence:
Use short sellers’ positions to push the price to the 80,000 doorstep for a stress test, meanwhile offload some coins between 78–80K to retail chasing highs, keep ETF low-position chips, and wait for PCE/JH signals to decide whether to truly break 80K or fall back to 74K for a reset.
Touching 80K but not standing above = bulls are probing, not advancing.
Standing above 80K and closing stable on the weekly = short squeeze turning offensive; repeated wicks at 79.8K and falling back = high-level rotation unfinished; breaking 74K = this wave is just the bear tail B wave. $BTC Ethereum's Historical Cycle Rate Projection
⚠️For historical review only, not investment advice. Past cycles cannot be simply replicated, DYOR
Ethereum does not have a fixed four-year halving supply cycle like Bitcoin. It follows the macro big cycle of BTC and is internally driven by three variables: narrative, technical upgrades, and ecosystem explosions. Its volatility beta is significantly higher than Bitcoin's: bull markets see greater gains, bear markets deeper retracements, with historical bear market maximum drawdowns ranging from 70% to 94%.
I. Review of Three Complete Historical Cycles
Cycle 1: ICO Cycle (2016-2018)
- Bear Market Bottoming: DAO event crash, late 2016 bottom, market trust collapse, ecosystem depression
- Bull Market Driver: ICO wave, explosive demand for ERC20 token issuance
- Bull Market Peak: January 2018, approximately $1420
- Bear Market Decline: ICO bubble burst, regulatory crackdown, massive project ETH sell-offs, bottom around $82, maximum drawdown 94%
- Cycle Characteristics: purely narrative-driven, many technical issues, price driven by external financing demand.
Cycle 2: DeFi-NFT Cycle (2019-2022)
- Bear Market Bottoming: prolonged bottoming from late 2018 to mid-2020, DeFi underlying protocols quietly developed
- Bull Market Driver: DeFi summer, NFT explosion; EIP-1559 burn mechanism implemented
- Bull Market Peak: November 2021, $4891
- Bear Market Decline: aggressive Fed rate hikes, Terra and FTX chain of collapses; despite completing the Merge major upgrade and moving through "buy the rumor, sell the fact," bottomed at $879, drawdown 82%
- Cycle Characteristics: real ecosystem use cases landed, fundamental upgrades, but macro rate hikes overshadowed positives.
Cycle 3: ETF and Institutional Cycle (2023-2025)
- Bottoming and Recovery: 2023 banking crisis bottom, staking ecosystem continues expanding, L2 scaling rapidly developing
- Bull Market Driver: expectations for BTC spot ETF and ETH spot ETF, institutional capital entering
- Bull Market Peak: August 2025, $4953, new all-time high
- Current Bear Market Phase: after peaking in August 2025, entering a correction cycle, ETH/BTC ratio continuously declining, underperforming Bitcoin, L2 liquidity diversion, US regulatory uncertainty suppressing valuation.
II. Repeated Cycle Patterns of Ethereum (Cycle Rate)
1. Follows Bitcoin's big cycle but with a time lag
BTC halving is the master switch for the entire crypto market; historically, ETH usually starts its main upward wave 6-12 months after BTC halving; bear markets also follow BTC but ETH's retracements are generally deeper and more elastic.
2. Each bull market requires a new narrative to ignite the ecosystem
2017: ICO; 2021: DeFi+NFT; 2025: Institutional ETF;
Without a new story, it's hard to have an independent major rally; relying solely on old logic rarely leads to new highs.
3. Major technical upgrades often follow "buy the rumor, sell the fact"
The Merge is an epic fundamental innovation, involving burn issuance and eliminating miner sell pressure, but after implementation, the price fell instead of rising.
After full positive expectations are priced in, the event's realization leads to a sell-off; this is a classic ETH cycle phenomenon.
4. Two necessary conditions for bear market bottoms
① Extreme market panic occurs, with massive on-chain staking losses and thorough chip exchanges;
② ETH/BTC ratio falls to historically low levels, relatively devalued against Bitcoin.
Historical bottoms are accompanied by long-term weekly-level bottoming; rapid V-shaped reversals rarely form true major bottoms.
5. Bear market retracement range
ETH typical bear market retracement: 70%-83%; extreme black swan events can reach 90%+;
A full bull-bear cycle, from top to bottom and bottoming completion, spans about 2-2.8 years.
III. Projection Based on Historical Cycle Rate
History does not simply repeat but rhymes.
1) Time Window
If August 2025 is the peak of this cycle, referencing history, the full bear market bottoming window likely falls between late 2026 and early 2027.
Even if a price low is hit earlier, time is needed for weekly bottoming; panic sentiment and chip clearing are both essential.
2) Two Key Observation Indicators
- ETH/BTC ratio: only when it returns to historically very low percentiles is it a major opportunity zone for ETH relative value;
- Narrative catalyst: the next major ETH rally requires a new engine: RWA tokenization of real-world assets, large-scale L2 explosion, clear US regulation, large-scale institutional capital inflow—at least one must materialize.
3) Two Scenario Projections
- Pessimistic scenario: continued regulatory suppression, ongoing L2 liquidity diversion, ETH underperforms BTC long-term, bear market bottom further declines.
- Neutral scenario: Fed rate cut cycle begins + regulatory clarity, after sufficient time for bottoming, a new main upward wave arrives in 2027-2028.
4) Practical Insights
Do not mistake a quick rebound for the end of the bear market;
Without immersive bottoming and extreme panic, even if a price low appears, it is likely a rebound bottom, not a cycle major bottom.
IV. Biggest Variables: What Could Break This Historical Cycle
1. US SEC classifies ETH as a security; regulatory risk is the biggest black swan;
2. L2 ecosystem continues to divert liquidity, weakening mainnet value capture;
3. Institutions massively allocate Bitcoin, capital continuously tilts toward BTC, ETH/BTC weakens long-term.
$BTC $ETHBitcoin's Historical Cycle Rate Projection
1. Review of Historical Cycle Retracement Data
- 2017-2018 cycle: Peak $19,800 → Bottom $3,200, maximum retracement -84%
- 2021-2022 cycle: Peak $69,000 → Bottom $15,500, maximum retracement -78%
- Current 2025-2026 cycle: Peak $126,000, based on retracement convergence rules, projected retracement -68%, corresponding price $40,000
2. Observable Cycle Patterns
1. The maximum bear market retracement is continuously narrowing
84% → 78% → projected 68%. Underlying logic: ETF institutional funds continuously entering, more long-term spot holders, larger market size, the intensity of extreme sell-offs is weaker compared to earlier periods.
2. Retracement convergence ≠ no deep drops
The smaller drop is only relative to the previous two cycles; 68% still represents a historically significant bear market correction. The pattern of large declines has not disappeared.
3. The true bottom of each cycle is born when the market is generally in despair
Bull market fantasies are completely cleared, massive leverage liquidations occur, and the community is filled with pessimistic sentiment, which tends to usher in the cycle’s major bottom.
3. Objective Assessment of the Current Market Position
Since the peak of 126,000 in this cycle, the price has retraced about 50% at most.
According to historical patterns:
If the cycle script continues, there is still downside space to the theoretically calculated bottom target of $40,000.
The current range-bound movement is merely a mid-downtrend consolidation and should not be hastily defined as the end of the bear market.
⚠️ Crucial Risk Reminder
1. Historical patterns can only serve as reference projections, not guaranteed outcomes. There are only two complete bear market samples, so direct linear application is inappropriate;
Institutional fund flows, Federal Reserve interest rates, global regulation, and geopolitical conflicts can all alter the depth and pace of this adjustment.
2. $40,000 is only a projected target; it does not mean the price will definitely fall to this level, nor that it will necessarily stabilize and reverse there.
3. Do not rely solely on cycle points to go all-in on bottom fishing. The true bottom requires multiple signals converging: on-chain chip capitulation, large-scale leverage reduction, macro liquidity turning points, and extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
Practical Strategy
Remain vigilant about downside risk and discard the mindset of "it has already dropped a lot, so it’s safe to bottom fish."
- Short-term: respond with a range-trading approach, strictly control leverage;
- Long-term positioning: use a phased strategy, keep sufficient cash reserves, and gradually increase dollar-cost averaging as the price approaches the lower projected range;
- Defensive baseline: avoid heavy positions betting on the bottom prematurely, patiently wait for multiple confirmations from sentiment, volume-price, and macro signals. BTC hits $80,000! Reaches highest since May 16, up nearly 30% in 8 days. Is this a bull market restart or a short squeeze?
Just now, a market alert popped up, BTC surged straight to $80,000, up about 3.6% in 24h, marking the highest since May 16.
Breaking down this rebound, three forces combined:
• US Treasury long-term bond repo scale doubled → long-end yields fell → risk assets + gold + BTC all attracted liquidity
• Over 20% rise in three days forced shorts to cover, more than $4 billion in put positions closed, the higher it goes, the more shorts get squeezed
• Spot BTC ETF net inflow about $1.92 billion in a single week, institutions are back to accumulate
ETH also climbed near 2500, altcoin sentiment lifted, but don’t get carried away—
80k is a psychological round number and a previous dense trading zone; this is not a place to blindly rush in. A pullback to 78,000-79,000 without breaking below is needed to confirm a true hold.
Personally, I lean towards: short term, the short squeeze continues; mid term, it depends on whether ETF inflows sustain; if macro sentiment shifts on Friday, a sharp correction could come at any time.CORE's 5 Most Easily Misunderstood Issues Today
1. About “Mobile Mining” — We Must Clarify Concepts First, Otherwise Promotion Becomes Misleading
In the early days, the small amount of “cloud computing power” people got by clicking the Satoshi App on their phones was essentially a token distribution event, completely different from Bitcoin ASIC miners running SHA-256 PoW mining to secure the network.
The true security foundation of the CORE mainnet is Satoshi Plus: Bitcoin miners delegate their computing power to Core validators (without changing Bitcoin’s main business, they get CORE rewards for free) + CORE holders stake for governance + BTC holders do non-custodial time-locked staking.
In short: what you get on your phone is a “meal ticket,” while BTC computing power delegation is “guarding the vault.” Calling the former mining is a dimensionality reduction misinterpretation of BTC’s native consensus. Please lock down the concepts in community discussions.
2. Will Node Staking Whales Give Up When Costs Drop from $6 to $0.02?
Some won’t, some will; it depends.
A significant portion of node staking is a hard lock for running the network — to earn validator rewards and governance weight, you must lock CORE/BTC according to the rules. This is a different decision system from retail traders watching K-lines to buy and sell. Long-term funds view BTCFi infrastructure on a multi-year basis and won’t fully liquidate just because CORE dropped from 6.14 to 0.02.
But “long-term staking” ≠ “never moving”: institutions have redemption cycles, LP expirations, and financial report pressures. The single address unstaking of 440 BTC in July 2026 is an example. The rational conclusion: locking tokens is a positive signal but not an immortal “never sell” card.
3. CORE’s Current Price Is 0.02, So Why Are There Still 2400+ BTC Lying in Dual Staking?
Because the BTC holders who came in never intended to sell their BTC.
The logic of the BTC base holders is: I hold BTC for 3-5 years, and it’s idle in a cold wallet anyway, so why not lock BTC into Core with non-custodial time locks, stack CORE staking to Dual Staking Boost/Super/Satoshi tiers, and get free CORE rewards plus lstBTC liquidity. They are betting on CORE ecosystem’s long-term value, not today’s 0.02 or 0.03 price fluctuations. The lower the price, the higher the “sunk cost” in CORE staking, but the BTC principal remains untouched, which whales don’t care about.
4. Why Do Whales Stake CORE Instead of Selling BTC During BTC Bull Runs? The Logic Ordinary People Don’t Understand
Ordinary traders think “sell to take profit when price rises,” whales think “BTC is real estate on the balance sheet.”
Base allocation: selling 10-20% in a rally is enough to improve cash flow; the remaining 80% is meant to be held through cycles;
Betting on the sector: optimistic about BTCFi turning dormant BTC into interest-bearing assets, locking BTC early into foundational infrastructure, betting that in 3 years CORE will be the BTCFi base and locked BTC will earn compounded CORE rewards;
It’s not pure “project support,” but an asset allocation of “idle BTC + long-term options,” with a side bet on the sector.
5. If CORE’s Narrative Succeeds, Will Similar Projects Like Watch, Car, Refrigerator Mining Appear?
Definitely, but most won’t survive a full cycle.
DePIN + lightweight terminal customer acquisition costs are extremely low; watch/car/router mining are just traffic shells. Whether a project succeeds doesn’t depend on what the terminal looks like but on three things:
Whether the underlying public chain truly has external security backing (CORE has BTC computing power; clones do not)
Whether there are real, billable application scenarios (like SatPay, lstBTC, Colend lending)
Whether there is independent cash flow separate from token inflation (fee buyback and burn, stablecoin interest spread)
Projects relying solely on “watch mining to give away tokens” without business support are short-term Ponzi hype, not BTCFi. Playing with crypto over the years, I've found the most expensive lesson isn't losing money, it's losing time.
I used to spend four to five hours a day watching the market, but in the end, I earned less than those who just bought and forgot about it.
Later, I switched to checking the weekly chart once a week, spending the rest of the time working overtime or watching shows.
$BTC I buy a little on my payday every month, regardless of the price, then transfer it to a cold wallet.
After two years of hardly managing it, I actually earned much more than when I was trading frequently.
I don't even touch simulated contracts because I know I can't control myself.
I quit all the news groups, keeping only one silent one, occasionally opening it to have a laugh.
Now, my simple method for timing buys and sells is: buy when no one in my circle is posting prices.
When everyone is showing screenshots, it's time to sell—simple and straightforward.
$ETH I've only bought once, just to try that smart contract, and then I didn't care about the ups and downs.
That money was like buying a game skin; once played, it's not a loss.
I only add to my position in one case: when the price keeps falling continuously until no one complains anymore.
When that happens, I add a little, then play dead and never check again.
When I make money, I first take out half, converting it into physical goods or paying off some credit card debt.
Last month, I took some out to buy a new TV for my family; watching games on weekends is much more enjoyable.
$SOL I just kept a tiny bit, bought at the peak back then, now it hangs as a souvenir.
It reminds me every day: no matter how good the story, don't get carried away; buying high is just buying high.
Now I spend no more than two minutes a day checking the market, set alerts, then close the app.
The time saved, I learned to make cold dishes; eating them in summer is more refreshing than watching K-line charts.
No matter how lively the market is, nothing beats the crispness of cucumbers I prepare myself.
Finally, just one sentence: light positions, long-term, less fuss, life is steadier than your account. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Bitcoin's Historical Cycle Rate Projection
1. Review of Historical Cycle Retracement Data
- 2017-2018 cycle: Peak $19,800 → Bottom $3,200, maximum retracement -84%
- 2021-2022 cycle: Peak $69,000 → Bottom $15,500, maximum retracement -78%
- Current 2025-2026 cycle: Peak $126,000, based on retracement convergence rules, projected retracement -68%, corresponding price $40,000
2. Observable Cycle Patterns
1. The maximum bear market retracement is continuously narrowing
84% → 78% → projected 68%. Underlying logic: ETF institutional funds continuously entering, more long-term spot holders, larger market size, the intensity of extreme sell-offs is weaker compared to earlier periods.
2. Retracement convergence ≠ no deep drops
The smaller drop is only relative to the previous two cycles; 68% still represents a historically significant bear market correction. The pattern of large declines has not disappeared.
3. The true bottom of each cycle is born when the market is generally in despair
Bull market fantasies are completely cleared, massive leverage liquidations occur, and the community is filled with pessimistic sentiment, which tends to usher in the cycle’s major bottom.
3. Objective Assessment of the Current Market Position
Since the peak of 126,000 in this cycle, the price has retraced about 50% at most.
According to historical patterns:
If the cycle script continues, there is still downside space to the theoretically calculated bottom target of $40,000.
The current range-bound movement is merely a mid-downtrend consolidation and should not be hastily defined as the end of the bear market.
⚠️ Crucial Risk Reminder
1. Historical patterns can only serve as reference projections, not guaranteed outcomes. There are only two complete bear market samples, so direct linear application is inappropriate;
Institutional fund flows, Federal Reserve interest rates, global regulation, and geopolitical conflicts can all alter the depth and pace of this adjustment.
2. $40,000 is only a projected target; it does not mean the price will definitely fall to this level, nor that it will necessarily stabilize and reverse there.
3. Do not rely solely on cycle points to go all-in on bottom fishing. The true bottom requires multiple signals converging: on-chain chip capitulation, large-scale leverage reduction, macro liquidity turning points, and extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
Practical Strategy
Remain vigilant about downside risk and discard the mindset of "it has already dropped a lot, so it’s safe to bottom fish."
- Short-term: respond with a range-trading approach, strictly control leverage;
- Long-term positioning: use a phased strategy, keep sufficient cash reserves, and gradually increase dollar-cost averaging as the price approaches the lower projected range;
- Defensive baseline: avoid heavy positions betting on the bottom prematurely, patiently wait for multiple confirmations from sentiment, volume-price, and macro signals. 🚨BTC: A rise should have made the market livelier, but recently many retail investors have noticed an unusual phenomenon: the market is rising, but their altcoins haven't risen much, and are even falling. This isn't just bad luck for retail investors, but rather a shift in market capital structure: funds are prioritizing BTC and ETH, while most altcoins are just consuming the hype. 1. Looking at the market, BTC has recently outperformed small-cap coins and ETH has remained relatively stable, but many previously popular altcoins have started to fluctuate at high levels or even weaken. This kind of market trend is most likely to give retail investors the illusion: they think it's just a rotation that hasn't happened yet, so they keep holding weak coins, only to wait for BTC to surge, while altcoins fall first. 2. 📊 Market data shows that in the past 24 hours, total contract turnover was about 129 billion USDT, with BTC and ETH contracts accounting for over 66%, indicating that funds are highly concentrated in the two major mainstream coins. Total net liquidations across the network were 522 million USDT, with long positions liquidated at 331 million and short liquidations at 191 million. Among liquidated users, many did not lose money from BTC declines but held altcoins waiting for catch-up gains, eventually getting stuck deeper and deeper. 3. 🔍 On-chain data also supports this judgment. Recently, stablecoins have not flowed heavily into small-cap altcoin contracts, but more to BTC and ETH related trading pairs and staking addresses. This indicates that institutions and large funds are not fully positioning themselves for altcoin seasons, but are pursuing more stable mainstream coin rebounds. Altcoins are mostly driven by retail investor sentiment, and their sustainability is usually poor.CORE's 5 Most Easily Misunderstood Issues Today
1. About “Mobile Mining” — We Must Clarify Concepts First, Otherwise Promotion Becomes Misleading
In the early days, the small amount of “cloud computing power” people got by clicking the Satoshi App on their phones was essentially a token distribution event, completely different from Bitcoin ASIC miners running SHA-256 PoW mining to secure the network.
The true security foundation of the CORE mainnet is Satoshi Plus: Bitcoin miners delegate their computing power to Core validators (without changing Bitcoin’s main business, they get CORE rewards for free) + CORE holders stake for governance + BTC holders do non-custodial time-locked staking.
In short: what you get on your phone is a “meal ticket,” while BTC computing power delegation is “guarding the vault.” Calling the former mining is a dimensionality reduction misinterpretation of BTC’s native consensus. Please lock down the concepts in community discussions.
2. Will Node Staking Whales Give Up When Costs Drop from $6 to $0.02?
Some won’t, some will; it depends.
A significant portion of node staking is a hard lock for running the network — to earn validator rewards and governance weight, you must lock CORE/BTC according to the rules. This is a different decision system from retail traders watching K-lines to buy and sell. Long-term funds view BTCFi infrastructure on a multi-year basis and won’t fully liquidate just because CORE dropped from 6.14 to 0.02.
But “long-term staking” ≠ “never moving”: institutions have redemption cycles, LP expirations, and financial report pressures. The single address unstaking of 440 BTC in July 2026 is an example. The rational conclusion: locking tokens is a positive signal but not an immortal “never sell” card.
3. CORE’s Current Price Is 0.02, So Why Are There Still 2400+ BTC Lying in Dual Staking?
Because the BTC holders who came in never intended to sell their BTC.
The logic of the BTC base holders is: I hold BTC for 3-5 years, and it’s idle in a cold wallet anyway, so why not lock BTC into Core with non-custodial time locks, stack CORE staking to Dual Staking Boost/Super/Satoshi tiers, and get free CORE rewards plus lstBTC liquidity. They are betting on CORE ecosystem’s long-term value, not today’s 0.02 or 0.03 price fluctuations. The lower the price, the higher the “sunk cost” in CORE staking, but the BTC principal remains untouched, which whales don’t care about.
4. Why Do Whales Stake CORE Instead of Selling BTC During BTC Bull Runs? The Logic Ordinary People Don’t Understand
Ordinary traders think “sell to take profit when price rises,” whales think “BTC is real estate on the balance sheet.”
Base allocation: selling 10-20% in a rally is enough to improve cash flow; the remaining 80% is meant to be held through cycles;
Betting on the sector: optimistic about BTCFi turning dormant BTC into interest-bearing assets, locking BTC early into foundational infrastructure, betting that in 3 years CORE will be the BTCFi base and locked BTC will earn compounded CORE rewards;
It’s not pure “project support,” but an asset allocation of “idle BTC + long-term options,” with a side bet on the sector.
5. If CORE’s Narrative Succeeds, Will Similar Projects Like Watch, Car, Refrigerator Mining Appear?
Definitely, but most won’t survive a full cycle.
DePIN + lightweight terminal customer acquisition costs are extremely low; watch/car/router mining are just traffic shells. Whether a project succeeds doesn’t depend on what the terminal looks like but on three things:
Whether the underlying public chain truly has external security backing (CORE has BTC computing power; clones do not)
Whether there are real, billable application scenarios (like SatPay, lstBTC, Colend lending)
Whether there is independent cash flow separate from token inflation (fee buyback and burn, stablecoin interest spread)
Projects relying solely on “watch mining to give away tokens” without business support are short-term Ponzi hype, not BTCFi. BTC and ETH Rise, Altcoins Remain Divided
$BTC reached $79.5K and $ETH surpassed $2.5K, yet $H, $LAB, $KAITO, $BEAT, and $SNDK remain weak. Capital continues favoring large-cap assets, while altcoins face thin liquidity, weaker spot demand, and token-specific supply pressure. BTC and ETH ETFs attracted around $2.6B in weekly inflows, reinforcing the preference for market leaders. The current setup points to selective capital rotation rather than a broad Altseason. 💥Storage is under pressure, crypto is strengthening, and capital rotation is undergoing changes.
The US tech and semiconductor sectors have recently been clearly under pressure, and the market is beginning to reassess AI overvaluation and the storage cycle. The chip sector's pullback has indeed created conditions for capital to seek new directions.
On the other hand, $BTC continues to approach $80,000, $ETH stands near 2500, ETF funds are flowing back, and BTC ETFs have recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, indicating that institutional buying still exists.
But this should not be simply understood as "storage falls, so crypto must rise." What truly deserves attention is whether capital is reallocating from overvalued tech assets to alternative assets like BTC.
The biggest short-term variable remains Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Fed on the interest rate path. If a dovish expectation is released, risk assets may continue to be supported; conversely, if the stance is hawkish, BTC might see profit-taking after hitting 80,000.
So the current direction is bullish, but blindly chasing highs near 80,000 is not advisable. Only after a real breakthrough and stabilization should the next phase be discussed.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 📈BTC suddenly surged to around 79,990, market sentiment clearly warmed up, many people are already shouting for 80,000 and 85,000, and more and more screenshots of chasing high prices are appearing in the community. But at times like this, it's even more important to understand the capital structure: a rise in the market doesn't mean all funds are increasing positions simultaneously; some whales are precisely taking advantage of market heat to reduce ⚠️ positions at high levels in batches. Looking at on-chain data, large BTC transfers in the past 24 hours have been unusually active, with over 12,000 BTC transferred from long-term holdings to exchange-related addresses. This doesn't necessarily mean an immediate crash, but it does indicate that some long-term funds have started cashing out profits at high levels. What's more noteworthy is that net BTC outflows on exchanges did not increase simultaneously, indicating that funds are not simply exiting but are being redistributed among different addresses to prepare for upcoming volatility. 📊 Market trading data shows that in the past 24 hours, BTC contract turnover reached 56.2 billion USDT, with a total market turnover of about 138 billion USDT. Total liquidations across the network totaled 608 million USDT, with 392 million from long positions and 216 million from short positions. This data is crucial: although the market looks bullish, many long positions are actually more liquidated, indicating that many people chased gains at high levels and were washed out by short-term insertion needles or used excessive leverage. 🔍 Why does this happen? Because the market has now entered a stage of "strong mainstream coins and weak altcoins." BTC and ETH attracted most of the liquidity, and retail investors, seeing the market rise, mistakenly thought the bull market was accelerating again, so...Bitcoin's Historical Cycle Rate Projection
1. Review of Historical Cycle Retracement Data
- 2017-2018 cycle: Peak $19,800 → Bottom $3,200, maximum retracement -84%
- 2021-2022 cycle: Peak $69,000 → Bottom $15,500, maximum retracement -78%
- Current 2025-2026 cycle: Peak $126,000, based on retracement convergence rules, projected retracement -68%, corresponding price $40,000
2. Observable Cycle Patterns
1. The maximum bear market retracement is continuously narrowing
84% → 78% → projected 68%. Underlying logic: ETF institutional funds continuously entering, more long-term spot holders, larger market size, the intensity of extreme sell-offs is weaker compared to earlier periods.
2. Retracement convergence ≠ no deep drops
The smaller drop is only relative to the previous two cycles; 68% still represents a historically significant bear market correction. The pattern of large declines has not disappeared.
3. The true bottom of each cycle is born when the market is generally in despair
Bull market fantasies are completely cleared, massive leverage liquidations occur, and the community is filled with pessimistic sentiment, which tends to usher in the cycle’s major bottom.
3. Objective Assessment of the Current Market Position
Since the peak of 126,000 in this cycle, the price has retraced about 50% at most.
According to historical patterns:
If the cycle script continues, there is still downside space to the theoretically calculated bottom target of $40,000.
The current range-bound movement is merely a mid-downtrend consolidation and should not be hastily defined as the end of the bear market.
⚠️ Crucial Risk Reminder
1. Historical patterns can only serve as reference projections, not guaranteed outcomes. There are only two complete bear market samples, so direct linear application is inappropriate;
Institutional fund flows, Federal Reserve interest rates, global regulation, and geopolitical conflicts can all alter the depth and pace of this adjustment.
2. $40,000 is only a projected target; it does not mean the price will definitely fall to this level, nor that it will necessarily stabilize and reverse there.
3. Do not rely solely on cycle points to go all-in on bottom fishing. The true bottom requires multiple signals converging: on-chain chip capitulation, large-scale leverage reduction, macro liquidity turning points, and extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
Practical Strategy
Remain vigilant about downside risk and discard the mindset of "it has already dropped a lot, so it’s safe to bottom fish."
- Short-term: respond with a range-trading approach, strictly control leverage;
- Long-term positioning: use a phased strategy, keep sufficient cash reserves, and gradually increase dollar-cost averaging as the price approaches the lower projected range;
- Defensive baseline: avoid heavy positions betting on the bottom prematurely, patiently wait for multiple confirmations from sentiment, volume-price, and macro signals. $BTC and $ETH: Is history repeating itself?
In 2022, $BTC dropped to $17.7K in June, then rebounded sharply, before testing lows near $15.8K again. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC again rebounded strongly from below $60K to around $80K, while $ETH rose back above $2.4K. But this cycle has a major difference: institutional demand returning via spot ETFs, with recent weekly inflows into Bitcoin nearing $2 billion and Ethereum close to $700 million.
Is this a true cycle bottom, or just another relief rally? $SOL $OKB $ZEC $BTC historical cycles are indeed worth referencing, but I tend to treat "$40,000" as a stress test scenario rather than an inevitable target.
In the past two bear markets, the maximum drawdowns were about 84% and 78%. If we calculate from the recent high of $126,000 this round, even if the drawdown narrows further to 68%, it theoretically corresponds to around $40,000. The issue is that BTC's market structure has changed now, with increased ETF, institutional allocations, and long-term capital proportions, so simply replicating the previous cycle is not rigorous.
What really needs attention is not "how much it has fallen historically," but whether this round shows resonance signals of a bear market bottom: complete deleveraging, long-term holders starting to accumulate again, ETF funds continuously flowing in, macro liquidity turning, and market sentiment truly entering extreme pessimism.
Therefore, even if a significant pullback occurs now, one cannot judge the bottom solely based on "it has already fallen a lot." Short-term leverage control, mid-term cash retention, and long-term phased positioning are more reasonable.
If BTC experiences a deep pullback again later, I will focus on observing capital and structural changes in the $60,000, $50,000, and $40,000 zones, rather than betting prematurely on any absolute bottom.
The above is only my personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 ALTSEASON MAY HAVE CHANGED ITS SHAPE
Everyone is still waiting for the moment when “all altcoins pump together.” But this market may not work that way anymore.
$BTC has just pushed close to $80K, while $ARG, $VELODROME, $PROS, $VIRTUAL, $DEGEN, and other tokens have already started breaking out in rotation.
Maybe this altseason won’t be one broad wave, but a series of micro-seasons — with capital rotating from one narrative to another. BTCFi Value Reconstruction, An Objective View on CORE Bull Market Space Forecast
⚠️Note: The content is only a compilation of public information and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please participate rationally.
As the BTCFi sector gradually becomes the core narrative of the next bull market, CORE, an EVM public chain integrating Bitcoin computing power, continues to attract market attention for its long-term valuation projection. To reasonably predict the price range, one cannot simply fantasize about multiples; it requires a comprehensive judgment combining business model, sector landscape, and implementation progress.
2026 is defined by Core as the revenue era, with the biggest transformation being the economic model shift: bidding farewell to the previous inflation subsidy data-pulling model, all ecosystem fees will be collected into the treasury for continuous secondary market repurchase of CORE, building a value flywheel of "BTC staking growth → ecosystem fee increase → token repurchase and burn." The three core products driving cash flow are LST liquid staking, SatPay Bitcoin bank, and AMP asset management protocol. Meanwhile, European listed institution BTCS S.A. already holds cooperative settlement chips, and the financing fund increase plan has entered the execution phase. Institutional fund movements are an important observation indicator.
Referring to historical valuations of similar BTCFi sector targets, three scenarios are projected. Conservative scenario: roadmap delivery falls short of expectations, ecosystem users and staked BTC scale grow slowly, only achieving slight valuation repair in the sector. Neutral scenario: SatPay successfully launches public testing, BTC liquid staking business steadily scales, continuously generating stable revenue, the value flywheel begins to operate, and market cap aligns with second-tier sector targets. Optimistic scenario: a large amount of existing BTC funds flow into the network, the repurchase mechanism continuously takes effect, institutions keep deploying, BTCFi welcomes a major sector rally, unlocking valuation ceiling.
However, all optimistic forecasts are based on smooth implementation and potential risks cannot be ignored. The BTCFi sector competition is fierce, with competitors like STX having a clear first-mover advantage; roadmap planning does not equal on-time delivery, product delays will continuously suppress market expectations; market conditions, regulatory environment, and large chip unlocks will greatly affect price trends. The huge drop from historical highs also indicates that past excessive market premiums have been digested, and a new round of rally requires solid business data support.
The most important thing in investing is tracking and verification; do not blindly gamble by locking in target prices prematurely. Key follow-ups include SatPay public test data, real on-chain fee income, and institutional fund accumulation progress. Only when the narrative converts into sustained cash flow and the value flywheel operates effectively can expectations be realized. Market trends are never linear; respect volatility and make independent decisions.
#CORE #BTCFi #PublicChainEcosystem $HYPE is making new highs. But there’s a $1.2B supply event coming.
HYPE just pushed to a new all-time high around $83, while Hyperliquid continues to attract serious trading activity.
The timing is interesting.
On August 29, around 14.18M $HYPE tokens are scheduled to unlock, worth roughly $1.2B at current prices. That represents about 1.4% of total supply and 2.7% of HYPE’s market cap. Nearly 47% of the unlocked tokens are allocated to insiders. 0
This creates a very interesting setup.
$HYPE is entering the unlock with strong momentum instead of weakness.
If demand absorbs the new supply, the unlock could become less important than many traders expect.
But if holders start taking profits into the event, the extra supply could create short-term selling pressure.
That’s why I’m not looking only at the price.
I’m watching volume, open interest, spot demand and how $HYPE behaves as August 29 approaches.
Hyperliquid is already competing aggressively with platforms like $GMX and $DYDX in decentralized derivatives.
So this isn't just another token unlock.
It’s a test of whether the market can absorb significant new $HYPE supply while the protocol remains in a strong growth phase.
$HYPE $BTC $ETH $SOL $GMX $DYDX $LINK $ARB
The question:
Can $HYPE hold its momentum after a $1.2B unlock, or will the new supply finally give sellers an advantage?
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap What RWA fears most is not the lack of storytelling, but telling stories for a long time and still being stuck in the PPT.
This time Coinbase has natively brought tokenized stocks onto Base, which is a step forward: based on the B20 standard, real stocks are held 1:1 by a regulated custodian, users in eligible regions can hold them through self-custody wallets, and 24/7 on-chain trading is supported.
There are three key points: 24/7 breaks the US stock trading hours, self-custody reduces intermediary friction, and 1:1 custody retains compliance attributes. Coinbase, as the largest compliant exchange in the US, stepping in to connect traditional stocks with on-chain liquidity, is another important use case deeply binding Coinbase to the Base ecosystem.
In the short term, this is generally positive for the Base ecosystem and the RWA narrative. But don’t equate "launch" directly with "adoption completed"; real liquidity and user scale still need time to be verified.
The focus going forward is on three things: whether trading volume can expand, whether the range of supported stocks will broaden, and whether other exchanges will follow suit. Currently, it’s more worthwhile to watch on-chain trading data and whether ecosystem capital inflows continue, rather than blindly chasing RWA concept tokens.
Market interpretation: generally positive.
Source: Wu Shuo
#Crypto100W