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凌晨四点的清算地图，藏着一场安静的收割 你有没有想过，当大多数人盯着K线的时候，真正聪明的钱在盯什么？ 我昨晚翻了一晚上BCH的合约数据，发现一个特别有意思的细节。清算报告显示，过去24小时总清算量刚过100万美元，乍看好像风平浪静，但拆开看就完全不是那么回事了。12小时内多头被清算55万美元，空头被清算26万美元，多头碾压空头2倍多。到了24小时窗口，多头清算量扩大到73万美元，空头才27万，比例拉到了2.73倍。也就是说，这波收割的节奏几乎全部集中在12小时窗口内完成，占了全天清算总量的八成以上，后半段基本就是收拾残局。 这个数据说明什么？市场在短时间内完成了一次定向的、集中式的多头逼空。这种节奏不是自然波动的样子，更像是有资金在精准地推动价格，让杠杆持仓在特定区间内被清理掉。等清算完成，价格反而稳住了，因为该爆的仓位已经爆完，抛压自然减弱。 顺着这个思路再往大周期看，BTC在80,000美元关口前反复试探，周五最高摸到79,555美元后回落至76,000美元区间震荡。以太坊更猛，一周从2,300美元附近拉到2,500美元上方，单周涨幅达到26%到34%，2,500美元这个位置第一If the upcoming bull market really begins, I have a few thoughts:
1. Only buy leading coins, and only in trending sectors. Forget about blockchain games or storage. Last time, I was tricked by YGG and FIL. This time, I'm focusing on platform coins and DeFi sectors. Brands like $BNB and $AAVE that surged strongly in the early bull market will be very strong throughout the entire bull market. Don't be afraid of high prices and don't hesitate to buy; bull markets are meant to break new highs.
2. Don't FOMO when prices rise, don't FOD when prices fall. In bull markets, there are lots of sharp rises and falls. Don't be afraid to be short now—there will definitely be a chance to pull back. Bulls won't make money blindly when prices go so smoothly. Don't chase highs when prices rise, but dare to buy when prices fall. No one can perfectly buy at the bottom or sell at the top.
3. A bull market rewards those who blindly go long. It seems easy, but it's actually very difficult. When you're on the market and start to fall, you often think the trend reversal is over, afraid of getting stuck. But once you sell, the price keeps hitting new highs.
4. The keyword for this round will definitely be on-chain finance, because the U.S. is introducing cryptocurrencies into the U.S. financial system. So the focus is on assets related to BTC, $ETH, HYPE, stablecoins, and RWAs. So back to the first point, stop looking at other junk sectors. There might be a few aggressive traders coming to harvest them. Rather than searching for treasure in the garbage heap, it's better to seek opportunities with higher certainty.
5. This round of ETH/BTC gains could be quite exaggerated, with Ethereum significantly outperforming Bitcoin.Looking at the notes I left behind, more than a month has quietly passed. What was the crypto world like a month ago? To put it bluntly, it was so quiet that people wondered if the bull market was gone. There was almost no crypto info in my social circle; the occasional ones I saw were $SNDK and $MU US stocks that were still a bit more active, screenshots of making money. The most popular phrase in the market back then wasn't "When will it rise?" It was "there's still one last drop." It was precisely this phrase that left many people stuck on the sidelines. $BTC When it was around $60,000, many people didn't want to buy—they just didn't dare to, always thinking about waiting: could it drop to over $50,000? Was it just one last panic remain? But after waiting and waiting, BTC retouched above $80,000, hitting a new three-month high. Here's a correction: $80,000 isn't BTC's all-time high. What's truly worth watching is how it has completed a very strong recovery from its previous slump. What's even more obvious is that the market is no longer just about BTC. ETH and SOL started to catch up, OKB once reached $120, and many altcoins have become active again. A month ago, no one wanted to talk about cryptocurrency, and now people are asking "Is there still a chance?" Market sentiment has switched at its quietest moment. Why is this rally so fast? I think "short squeezes are indeed one of the important reasons, but you can't attribute all the rally to short squeezes. There were too many bearish people in the market earlier, and short positions were too crowded. Once BTC broke through the barrier,$ETH is bearish in the short term, while $OKB leans bullish, and $ZEC is pulling back from highs: Has capital started to split?
$ETH faces short-term pressure, $OKB is relatively favored, and $ZEC is facing profit-taking at high levels. This is likely not just a coincidence but more like capital searching for new directions, driven by their respective fundamentals.
🔍 Divergent performance among coins
· $ETH: There is indeed short-term correction pressure. Although mid-to-long term outlook is positive due to $ETF inflows (net weekly inflow of $697 million) and ecosystem recovery, the price just experienced a surge of over 7%, daily RSI entered the overbought zone (around 80), and it faces strong resistance at $2500-$2550. Additionally, uncertainty before major macro events (Jackson Hole Symposium, Nvidia earnings) increases correction risk.
· $OKB: Technically relatively resilient. While most coins follow the broader market fluctuations, $OKB shows positive technical signals: price rebounded from key Fibonacci support (around $90.71), and the A/D line indicates increasing buying pressure, suggesting a bottoming pattern.
· $ZEC: $ETF benefits have been realized, short-term "buy the rumor, sell the news". $ZEC recently surged violently from $500 to $850, a huge gain. With the Grayscale Zcash $ETF launching on August 25, short-term funds are taking profits. Currently consolidating at high levels, with extremely high futures open interest (around $1.5-$1.8 billion). Failure to hold $800 support could trigger a chain reaction.
💡 How to view the current divergence?
This looks more like a normal "going separate ways" after a broad rally.
1. Signs of capital rotation: Recently, XRP's popularity in the Korean market has surpassed $BTC and $ETH, indicating some speculative funds are indeed seeking new directions. Meanwhile, $ETH funds are also flowing into $BTC, but no unified momentum has formed yet.
2. Event-driven moves: $ZEC's sharp rise and fall is mainly driven by $ETF expectations. This "buy the rumor, sell the fact" dynamic makes its movement more independent than $ETH.
📌 Operational notes to watch
· Beware of market pullbacks: Both $BTC and $ETH are short-term overbought. Historically, MACD death cross plus RSI overbought often accompanies 5%-10% corrections. If the market is unstable, any isolated rallies may be dragged down.
· Focus on key variables: The Fed's stance at this week's Jackson Hole Symposium is crucial in determining the short-term direction of risk assets, including the crypto market. Looking back at history, many crypto exchanges didn't collapse during the bear market but rather at the start of the bull market after the bear market ended. To cover their losses or survive, they sold off assets at the bear market bottom and misappropriated funds.
Then, when the bull market recovered and asset prices rose again, they lacked the funds to buy back the assets they had sold at the low point. Ultimately, they couldn't withstand the run on funds or competitors who invested more budget to capture the market.Multiple attempts at BTC surging to 80,000, I have learned to respect false breakouts (August 25)
In the past few days, BTC has repeatedly tested 79,800, just one step away from the 80,000 mark. During the previous surge, I subjectively judged "a long attack will break through," and chased long positions at 79,400, expecting a direct breakout to new highs.
The result was a long upper shadow wick followed by a drop, directly falling back to 77,600. Reviewing contract data, the total open interest across the network continued to rise, bullish options accounted for nearly 60%, sentiment was extremely greedy, and the rise was mostly due to short squeeze; incremental spot funds did not keep up.
77,600 is the key defensive support; holding it is necessary for a second attack opportunity. After being taught by false breakouts, I no longer subjectively predict breakouts. A real breakout requires confirmation by volume and a solid candlestick, not just rushing in when near resistance.
The market will not move according to everyone's expectations; trading requires respecting market signals, not personal wishes.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $BTC $ETH $BTC surged to 80,000, but open interest in contracts dropped to a two-month low.
Price and positions are moving in opposite directions—how should this be interpreted?
---
One interpretation is that this rally hasn't involved much leverage buildup.
Price is rising, but OI is falling, indicating that many shorts have been cleared out, and the longs chasing the rally haven't rushed to increase their positions.
Compared to a scenario where "leverage thickens as the price rises," this structure seems lighter, at least in the short term, reducing the risk of a squeeze.
---$SNDK
But there's another side:
The previous sharp rally was largely driven by forced buying from short liquidations.
Once the short squeeze momentum fades, it depends on whether spot and ETFs can pick up the slack. If new capital inflows don't keep pace, the pace might slow down.
---$ETH
So the key point going forward is:
When OI starts to rise again, can the price follow?
· If it can keep up → it means there is capital willing to take positions at this level
· If it can't → watch out for new leverage building up but insufficient buying power
---#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Liquidation Watch! Liquidation Volume Data Analysis (August 25, 12:30)
After BTC broke through 81266, the total liquidation across the entire network in 24 hours was about $428 million, with short position liquidations accounting for over half at $231 million, mainly driven by the recent upward short squeeze rally. During BTC's surge, a large number of high-level short positions were swept out, but as the price retraced, short-term long positions chasing the rally also began to liquidate in bulk, indicating that two-way liquidations have started.
ETH surged to 2533 before pulling back, with 24-hour liquidation amounts second only to BTC. During the surge, short positions were cleared, and after a 15-minute level pullback, a large number of short-term long positions were liquidated, reflecting ETH's passive follow-up in the rally and relatively weak stability of long holdings.
Altcoin sector shows clear divergence. Hot MEME tokens like TRUMP and HYPE experienced intense two-way liquidations with sharp spikes up and down to harvest traders; LAB and BEAT had low trading volumes and small liquidation scales, indicating insufficient capital attention.
Summary: Earlier, the market mainly focused on short squeezes, but now two-way liquidations are intensifying, representing rapidly expanding market divergence. High-level two-way liquidations are a risk signal; going forward, be cautious of a concentrated long position stampede. It is essential to reduce leverage and closely monitor BTC's 79300 support level.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ Stablecoins: Shifting Focus from Trading Liquidity to Physical Payment Infrastructure In July, cryptocurrency card payments reached an all-time high, and a significant portion of these funds flowed into everyday consumption rather than transactions, which may be the key change. In July, cryptocurrency card payment amounts reached $1.04 billion, more than tripling compared to the same period last year. The number of tracked transactions exceeded 10 million, with about 70% of them paid with stablecoins. Looking at the share by payment method, USDC accounted for 50.8% and USDT for 20.3%. What stands out is the usage. Everyday expenses such as groceries, food delivery, and transportation are increasingly being paid through cryptocurrency cards. The significance of this data to the market is not simply an increase in transaction volume. For years, stablecoins have been seen as a medium for moving trading liquidity within exchanges, that is, spot and derivatives positions. However, now their role outside exchanges is increasing, serving as payment rails in the real economy. This reflects the market's evaluation of stablecoins. Leverage Alert! Open Interest Data Analysis (August 25, 12:26)
The total open interest across the network has risen again. After BTC broke through the 80,000 mark, contract positions quickly accumulated, significantly widening the long-short divergence. BTC open interest continues to rise, with long and short positions nearly evenly split. After a large number of short positions were liquidated earlier, new short orders have been placed again above 81,000. Funding rates remain positive, meaning longs must continuously pay interest, and short-term long positions are starting to become crowded.
ETH open interest is also rising but with a smaller position size compared to BTC. After surging to 2,533, there was a pullback on the 15-minute chart, with many short-term long positions reducing their holdings. Open interest slightly declined, indicating weak long confidence and a passive follow-up buying rather than strong independent long intent.
Altcoins are showing significant divergence. SOL and HYPE open interest remain high, while MEME-type $TRUMP contracts are being liquidated back and forth. Pin spikes easily trigger bidirectional liquidations, amplifying contract risks for small-cap coins.
Summary: The rise in total open interest indicates market leverage is returning but does not imply a sustained one-sided rally. High open interest at elevated levels increases the probability of a two-way shakeout, which can either continue to squeeze shorts upward or cause concentrated long liquidations. At this stage, it is essential to reduce leverage and closely monitor BTC support at 79,300. A break of this support could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $BTC $ETH #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ On August 24, two senior officials from the Ministry of Finance hinted at considering using the TGA to finance long-term bond buybacks. The TGA balance is about 950 billion, but due to minimum reserve requirements, Morgan Stanley estimates the actual usable amount is only 80-200 billion, with the exact amount undisclosed. Previously, BofA raised the single transaction limit for 10-20 year and 20-30 year Treasury buybacks from 2 billion to at least 4 billion, effective September 9, dubbed the "Ministry of Finance version of twist operation."
Using TGA cash to directly buy long-term bonds avoids issuing more short-term debt, causing limited net impact on reserves, seemingly "cleaner" than issuing short-term debt to buy long-term bonds. Upon the news, the 10-year yield fell by 4 basis points, gold rose above 4670, and Bitcoin broke through $80,000, all strengthening simultaneously. But Wall Street poured cold water: Deutsche Bank said the impact was "basically zero," and Goldman Sachs bluntly stated it does not solve the root cause of long-end volatility.
In fact, the rebound after the initial announcement on August 19 lasted less than 24 hours. Barclays estimates the expansion is equivalent to an additional quarterly purchase of about 16 billion, which accounts for only 0.05% of the 32.3 trillion publicly held US debt.
The root cause is the massive debt supply caused by the fiscal deficit, not poor liquidity of old bonds. Using cash to buy bonds is a demand-side hedge and does not address supply-side contradictions. The TGA is originally an emergency buffer; using it to support the market consumes the safety cushion, and once the market sees through this, it actually strengthens the fiscal risk premium.
Effective in the short term, but a cure? Far from it. The real solution is either fiscal consolidation or Federal Reserve intervention; the former is politically impossible, and the latter is currently on hold. $BTC #US Launches Economic Isolation of Iran, Why Did Oil Prices Fall Back?
The boss has something to say
The US has initiated formal economic isolation measures against Iran, including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping under secondary sanctions. Bassett declared that the enforcement will be zero-leakage, and relevant countries must shut down identified activities according to the timetable. The Iranian rial immediately dropped to a new unofficial market low of 2,039,000 per 1 USD.
But oil prices did not rise.
Brent is still hovering around $82, much weaker compared to over $90 during the previous Hormuz tensions. There are three reasons.
First, the sanctions being implemented means the positive effects have been fully priced in. The market started pricing in Hormuz risks since July, and expectations were already maxed out. When the boot actually drops, there is no incremental information to push prices higher.
Second, the market is assessing enforcement capability. Zero-leakage sounds tough, but whether Iranian oil exports can truly be blocked depends on the cooperation of third countries. Past rounds of sanctions have proven that a complete shutdown is very difficult.
Third, the diesel crack spread has fallen back from a historic high of $102, and refining margins are narrowing, indicating that tightness on the refined oil side is also easing temporarily.
The impact on crypto is complex in the short term. It’s no secret that Iran uses digital assets to bypass sanctions; the escalation means demand for stablecoins like USDT in the gray area will rise, which is supportive. But tightening US dollar liquidity and declining risk appetite are suppressive. $BTC $ETH $SOL
BTC breaking above 80,000 is meaningful in itself. But at this level, chasing higher in the short term is not cost-effective. Wait for a pullback confirmation.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.Actually, there is no need to worry about the US short-term debt market at all; the Fed doesn't need to step in to buy bonds in the short term. Because the federal funds rate tool hasn't been fully utilized yet. Currently, the federal funds rate is 3.5%-3.75%. With weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data and a declining CPI in the hands of Walsh and Bassett, they can cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points and play this game until the Trump administration leaves office. As for long-term bonds, as long as the Fed doesn't step in to buy bonds, the large-scale issuance of long-term private placement bonds by AI companies will inevitably push up the yields on long-term government bonds, creating a substantial structural rate hike on the long end. At this time, Bassett enters the market, using the low-interest short-term debt financing provided by Walsh to repurchase and retire the long-term government bonds that have been halved in value, which is completely easy and stress-free. If the first repurchase auction on September 9th sees long-term bondholders still hesitant to sell, Trump says deploying the US military is not out of the question. If you want to be dignified, Walsh and Bassett will let you be dignified. If you don't want to be dignified, Trump has nine ways to make you dignified. Unitree Technology is a good company
But I really don't recommend chasing the stock price now
I have long been optimistic about Unitree Technology; robotics will definitely be one of the most important technology themes in the coming years.
But a good company doesn't mean any price is worth buying.
Unitree's issue price was only ¥150.8, and on the first day of listing, it surged directly to ¥1100, an increase of over 600%, with a market cap once exceeding ¥440 billion. Although it has significantly fallen from its peak, the stock price has dropped about 45% in just a few trading days.
The most outrageous part is the valuation.
The issue price corresponded to a 2025 price-to-sales ratio of 35.89 times, already higher than the comparable companies' average of 19.74 times at that time; after the explosive rise post-listing, Reuters even estimated it traded at about 857 times the expected 2026 earnings at one point.
Unitree's growth is certainly rapid, with 2025 revenue of ¥1.699 billion and net profit of ¥278 million, which I acknowledge.
But buying Unitree now, I think you're mostly buying into the market's crazy expectations for humanoid robots.
I will follow this company long-term, but I won't chase the stock now. No matter how good the sector, if the price is too high, you still have to wait.
$SNDK #宇树上市后连续回落，估值如何定价？ $ROBO Besides focusing on whether the $BTC trend will continue,
the financing amount and number trends in the Web3 primary market also need close attention. Currently, these two metrics have dropped to their lowest point in six years.
In the past, these values would rise in sync with the recovery of the secondary market.
In recent months, there has been a divergence between financing amounts and financing events, indicating that a few projects are receiving more capital support.
After several cycles in the industry, it still mostly revolves around narratives, lacking verifiable business models.
Meanwhile, AI has become the new technological narrative center in the capital market, with massive funds flowing into computing power, models, and application layers.
This has caused Web3 to lose the capital attention advantage it had in the previous cycle.
Some might say that capital concentration is a sign of industry maturity, but I believe this is not the scenario for an industry still in its development phase.
Because it means a significant space for innovation and trial-and-error is shrinking.
I looked at the funding distribution by sector this year, and the answer is clear: VCs no longer buy into "narratives."
Large primary investments are mainly concentrated in the CEFI and DEFI sectors, both characterized by "verifiable business models."
Various paradigms and applications that were discussed in the past no longer appear on my timeline.📊 Market Brief Tuesday - 08/25
The US announced a sanctions package targeting 60 organizations supporting Iran, spanning from China, Hong Kong to UAE, Singapore, and the EU.
Bessent stated that the US may use part of nearly $1T cash in the TGA to buy back bonds.
The US Treasury Department has established a task force to address quantum computing risks to the financial system.
Dunamu – the parent company of Upbit – confirmed it has engaged with the SEC and CFTC amid rumors of a potential Nasdaq listing.Bitcoin's recent surge of nearly 30% is no longer just about speculating on risk sentiment.
A new narrative is emerging in the market: institutions are treating Bitcoin as a hard asset, alongside gold, to hedge against the weakening dollar and the risks of U.S. fiscal debt.
You can see that Bitcoin has broken through its range, gold is rising sharply in sync, the dollar is weakening, and all macro signals are aligned.
However, we need to be rational here; it’s still too early to say the market is abandoning the dollar outright—this logic requires data for validation.
Additionally, this rally has also been fueled by short covering, with over $4 billion in short positions liquidated, further driving the price up.
Going forward, key factors to watch are ETF inflows, real interest rates, and on-chain holdings to determine whether this story can continue to play out.
The hotter the market gets, the more you should avoid impulsive chasing; use indicators to verify the logic and don’t get swept up by emotions. MicroStrategy made a rather unusual move this week.
The company sold about $2 billion worth of MSTR stock last week but didn't buy a single BTC; instead, it created a new cash pool of about $1.59 billion. Currently, Strategy holds 840,447 BTC with a total cost of approximately $75.4 billion.
I don't think this means Strategy no longer wants to buy BTC.
The official documents clearly state that this money can be used in the future to continue buying BTC, repurchasing stock, or for other company purposes—essentially preparing ammunition in advance.
Now that BTC has just broken through $80,000 again, Strategy has chosen to hold cash first.
I'm actually quite curious whether this $1.6 billion will directly turn into buying power the next time BTC experiences a major pullback.
$MSTR $BTC $CRCL #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Bitcoin has surged to 80,000, yet MicroStrategy hasn't bought a single coin this week?
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
What's truly unusual isn't the coin price, but that Saylor, who usually posts charts right after buying coins, has suddenly gone silent.
From August 17 to 23, Strategy sold about 18.26 million shares of MSTR, raising nearly $2 billion, but the company neither bought nor sold any Bitcoin. $136.4 million was used to repurchase STRC, $300 million replenished USD reserves, and the remaining $1.59 billion was placed into "USD Cash."
The company still holds 840,447 Bitcoins at an average cost of $75,385. Calculated at around $80,000, this position is now back in profit, so it’s not that they stopped because of unbearable losses.
My first thought was that MicroStrategy dared not chase anymore, but the premium of MSTR relative to Bitcoin net assets is already very low. Continuing large-scale issuance now would dilute original shareholders even more, making this deal less favorable than before.
The $1.59 billion can still be used to buy coins later, pay interest, and repurchase shares. Saylor seems to be reserving cash flow for the company first, then deciding where to allocate this money.
For Bitcoin’s short-term outlook, the market temporarily lost a steady buyer. Whether $80,000 can hold now depends more on whether ETF and spot funds can continue to absorb.📅 In the coming days, several external events are worth monitoring in advance.
On Wednesday, the US will release the revised GDP figures and PCE-related data, with the core focus on whether inflation will continue to strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September.
On the same day, NVIDIA will report earnings. AI remains a key support for risk appetite in the US stock market; if earnings and guidance exceed expectations, the tech sector sentiment may continue to spill over into the crypto market. Conversely, if high expectations are not met, risk assets could cool down together.
The real highlight in the latter half of the week is the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting. The market will look for clues on the future interest rate path from the Fed's statements, which could directly impact the dollar, US Treasury yields, and the short-term direction of BTC.
Simply put 👇
📊 Wednesday: GDP + PCE-related data
🔥 Wednesday: NVIDIA earnings
🏦 Starting Thursday: Jackson Hole central bank meeting
$BTC and $ETH have already experienced a rapid rise recently; the higher the current level, the more sensitive they are to changes in macro expectations.
If there is a sudden large fluctuation in the next few days, don’t rush to find reasons only on the K-line; the market may actually be trading on the expectation gaps behind these events.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 The US has taken a hard line against Iran, but crude oil prices have actually fallen.
This time, the US has launched new economic pressure actions against Iran, sanctioning nearly 60 entities related to Iran, even warning that countries and companies continuing to do business with Iran may be cut off from the dollar system.
Normally, such news would cause crude oil prices to rise.
However, WTI instead dropped 2.4% to around $85, and Brent also fell to around $92.
I find the current market trading very interesting.
People may be starting to believe that the US shifting from military pressure to larger-scale economic sanctions actually increases the possibility of renegotiations and a cooling of the situation, so the geopolitical premium has been partially unwound.
The Iran risk has not disappeared, but oil prices are becoming less sensitive to negative news, and this change is worth watching.
$CL $XAU $BTC
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $BTC & $ETH: Don't let market correlations mislead your judgment. Recently, there has been a clear shift in the market: US stocks are weak, but $BTC are still pushing toward $80K. This shows that the current upward logic in the crypto market no longer relies entirely on traditional risk assets. Over the past week, BTC surged over 20% and approached $80K again; Meanwhile, spot BTC and ETH ETFs attracted a combined net inflow of about $2.6B in the week ending August 21, with BTC ETFs at about $1.92B and ETH ETFs at about $697M, marking one of the strongest weekly inflows this year. $ETH's performance is also worth watching. ETH has regained its upper price above $2,500, indicating that funds are not concentrated solely on BTC, and ETH is also receiving clear institutional support. Recently, ETH ETF asset size and trading volume have risen simultaneously, and market attention to ETH is clearly warming up. But here, calmness is even more needed. Although BTC and ETH are both part of the crypto market, they cannot be processed using exactly the same trading logic. If your BTC leveraged position is only about 100 points away from the liquidation price, the most important thing now is not to guess whether the next candlestick will go up or down, but to reduce risk first. 📌 **BTC:** Focus on whether the $79K–$80K range can effectively break out and hold steady. 📌 ETH: The $2,500 area has become a key psychological barrier, breaking throughSpaceX has fallen back near its IPO price
I still think the valuation is expensive now
SpaceX recently dropped back to around $137, very close to the $135 IPO price.
But I still don't think it's cheap just because it has dropped a lot.
Based on the current stock price, SpaceX's equity value is still close to $1.86 trillion. Meanwhile, about 319 million shares will become available for sale on August 20, and more lock-up periods will end gradually until 2027.
The company's growth is indeed very strong, with Q2 revenue reaching $7.8 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year, but capital expenditures are as high as $18.4 billion.
So the biggest problem with SpaceX now has never been whether the company is good or not.
The company is certainly great; the problem is that the market has already priced in many years of future growth.
From $225 down to $137 now, I still think the valuation is not cheap. If I were to start thinking it has value for money, I would keep waiting.
$SPCX $xSPCX As expected, $BTC still broke through the $80,000 mark.
In the previous six months, the decline made people doubt the bull market, but in just one week, it almost recovered the entire six-month drop.
The most absurd thing in the crypto world is this: during the decline, it tortures you every day, but when it really rises, it doesn't even give you time to hesitate.
These days, I wrote a program to assist with trading. Last night, I went long on $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL in a simulated account following the trend.
I’m still holding BTC and ETH, but I’ve already taken profits on SOL. The simulated leveraged returns on all three trades have exceeded 100%.
To be clear, this is a simulated account, not spot gains, and I’m not trying to show off profits.
What really makes me happy is that the program didn’t predict the future for me but pulled me out of my emotions: the trend has already strengthened, so don’t guess the top based on feelings, and don’t argue with the candlesticks just to prove yourself.
There was indeed a short squeeze at the start of this rally, but reaching $80,000 can no longer be blamed solely on shorts fueling the move.
Last week, spot ETF inflows for BTC were about $1.92 billion, ETH surged near 2500, and SOL also broke through 100, indicating that spot buying is taking over and funds are starting to spread to high-elasticity assets.
However, $80,000 is not a clearance animation; profit-taking has thickened, and this week still has PCE, Jackson Hole, and employment data revisions.
The real test is not whether it can surge again, but whether ETFs and spot buyers will still step in when it retests $80,000.
Whether the bull market is truly here still needs verification, but at least this time, I’m finally not standing against the trend
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $BTC pulled out a big bullish candle this week, approaching $79,500 intraday. On the surface, it looks like sentiment in the crypto space is warming up, but the driving force might actually be on Wall Street's bond trading desks. The U.S. Treasury raised the liquidity repo limit for medium- and long-term government bonds, causing long-term yields to fall and the dollar to weaken, while gold and BTC both rose. This indicates that BTC is increasingly behaving like a highly elastic asset sensitive to dollar liquidity in the short term, rather than just an on-chain narrative asset.
From the chart, the early stage of the rally shows clear short covering, followed by a net inflow of about $2.6 billion into spot BTC and ETH ETFs over the week, which helped sustain the rebound into a trend. The key difference is: short covering can push prices higher but doesn't necessarily bring sustained buying; ETF inflows mean traditional capital is willing to allocate at higher levels, indicating better trend quality.
However, don't rush to interpret this as liquidity arriving and blindly turn bullish. Bond repos are a temporary tool, and whether the yield decline continues depends on inflation, employment, and Fed statements. More concerning is that implied volatility has clearly risen this round, but downside protection demand on the options side is weak, indicating the market is not well prepared for a pullback.
My view is that BTC is shifting from a single label as a safe-haven asset to an amplifier of macro liquidity changes. Going forward, the focus should not be on shouting new highs at round numbers, but on observing whether ETF net inflows continue, whether the dollar index weakens, and whether long-term U.S. Treasury yields keep falling.
(This is only my personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice) The essence of Bitcoin: a "reservoir" of liquidity, not just simple coin speculation
BTC has never been just a simple coin speculation; it is the core barometer of global market liquidity.
Its rise and fall follow a clear rule: "Liquidity tightness + market main theme."
🔁 Review of 2021: Flood of funds with nowhere to go
· Macro background: Federal Reserve's massive liquidity injection + $1.9 trillion US fiscal stimulus, causing a flood of funds in the market;
· Situation at the time: Although there were hotspots like Tesla, the new energy sector's explosive power was limited and lacked sustainability, not a true market main theme;
· Result: No certain sector to invest in, idle liquidity crowded into Bitcoin;
· Trend: Bitcoin surged from $29,000 at the start of the year to a historic peak, and the total market cap of the crypto market once exceeded $3 trillion.
📉 Subsequent decline: Not due to less money, but "main theme replacement"
· With the AI industry logic fully implemented, the market gave birth to a true super main theme;
· Funds stopped waiting and concentrated into the AI sector;
· Bitcoin lost liquidity support and naturally continued to weaken—
This is the inevitable result of funds choosing the best cluster.
🔄 Looking at the present: Highly similar to 2021
· AI main theme loosening: severe sector differentiation, greatly reduced profitability, unable to absorb massive funds;
· Liquidity released again: US fiscal easing + Federal Reserve policy adjustments, incremental funds re-entering the market;
· Market status: again trapped in the dilemma of "money but no main theme";
· Bitcoin's advantage: extreme liquidity + fast cash-out ability, no entry or exit barriers, very strong fund absorption capacity.
🎯 Core conclusion (in one sentence)
With a top main theme → funds abandon coins, pursue industries
Without a main theme, money floods → Bitcoin is the optimal reservoir
✅ Final judgment
The current market is not speculation, not gambling—
It is a rational choice made by funds in an environment lacking a main theme. A market-rule-aligned recovery naturally follows.
$BTC
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 And it's not just a single chain rising; Solana, BSC, and Robinhood Chain each have their own dark horses, and the narrative shifts rapidly.
At the time of writing, Robinhood Chain's rise is faster than I expected.
CASHCAT has reached near its all-time high, with a current price of about $0.209 and a market cap of $205 million. It has risen 46% in 24 hours and 13% in the past 6 hours, showing strong momentum.
PONS has surged 46% simultaneously, now priced at $0.091, with a market cap of $64.8 million. It is the platform token of mainstream meme launch platforms on the chain, essentially benefiting from ecosystem traffic dividends. Its logic is different from memes that rely solely on consensus to hype memes.
Not long ago, meme capital was still focused on Base. When Basecat was popular, it was seen as a symbol of Base Builder culture and even got listed on Coinbase, making it a breakout target at the time.
The market has always been fickle, and after Robinhood Chain's "platform-native" narrative emerged, capital quickly shifted its focus. Base's old popular Memes still have a community foundation, but new funds and discussion have clearly been diverted, and the hype has receded from the main theme to the margins.
On-chain data also supports the heat. According to statistics, Robinhood Chain's DEX trading volume in the past 24 hours was $645 million, with a 7-day cumulative total of 3Once the 10-year US Treasury yield approaches 5%, high interest rates will pressure government financing, bank assets, and risk assets. At the end of 2023, Yellen released about $2.4 trillion in liquidity into the market by issuing more short-term debt and freeing up funds from reverse repos. Subsequently, BTC staged a major rebound from the lows after FTX; this transmission chain has been validated by the market.
Now, Basent chooses to increase long-term bond repurchases. On the surface, this manages the bond market, but in essence, it still suppresses long-end yields and loosens dollar liquidity. The tools differ, but the logic is quite similar to Yellen's: when rates become too high for the system to bear, the Treasury will ultimately flood the market by various means.
However, I do not fully agree with the linear judgment that BTC must rise just because of repurchases. The initial repurchase scale is limited; the pace of funds coming out of the Treasury account, the direction of the dollar index, and whether risk appetite can rise simultaneously will all determine the slope of the market. What truly deserves tracking is the scale and frequency of repurchases, not the sentiment triggered by a single piece of news. Liquidity is the soil for a bull market, not a button you press to make prices shoot straight up.
My conclusion is: macro is once again providing tailwinds for crypto assets, but it is more suitable to hold spot and wait for confirmation, rather than leverage up just because you see the words "money printing" $BTC
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)Brothers, it has risen nearly 30% in 8 days, shooting up from 63,000 straight to 80,000.
Feels good, right? Yes.
But don’t just enjoy the ride—where this rally is at and who will take over next is more important than how high it goes.
No nonsense today, here’s a clear breakdown for you.
🏃 Bull Relay Team: Who’s supporting this rally?
First leg (completed) — Short squeeze
In the past three days, shorts liquidated over $4 billion. Short covering = forced buying of Bitcoin = price rises → more short liquidations → continued rise. This is a classic "short squeeze," quick to come and quick to go.
Second leg (ongoing) — ETF institutional inflows
Last week, 13 US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow in 10 months. Since August, cumulative net inflows reached $2.38 billion, the strongest monthly performance this year. BlackRock alone attracted $503 million in a single day.
Institutions are entering with real money.
Third leg (yet to start) — Macro turns dovish
Three macro events this week will decide the direction:
July PCE data (Wednesday) — Core PCE expected at 3.3%, still far from the Fed’s 2% target
Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut (Friday) — the most likely event to change the market
Q2 GDP second revision
If dovish, the third leg kicks in. If hawkish, the rally stalls.
Fourth leg (not arrived) — Retail FOMO
The real frenzy hasn’t started. Retail investors haven’t rushed in yet; when they do, that will be the climax of this rally.
🏃 Bear Resistance Team: Who’s holding it back?
First defense line — Short-term profit-taking
The profit ratio of short-term holders (STH) surged from 26.1% on August 17 to 74.9%. In plain terms: those who were losing money before have now fully recovered and are in profit. These people could sell at any time.
Short-term holders have net transferred 28,600 BTC to exchanges, breaking the 25,000 warning line. About 53,000 BTC have flowed into major trading platforms.
They are selling.
Second defense line — The 80,000 psychological barrier
A battleground for bulls and bears. Breaking through means a new starting point; failing means a local top.
Third defense line — Unexpected macro bearish shocks
A PCE rebound beyond expectations or hawkish remarks from Warsh—either could reset the rally.
📌 Key observations this week
PCE data (Wednesday) — Can the inflation narrative continue to improve?
Jackson Hole (Friday) — Is Warsh dovish or hawkish on debut?
Profit-taking pressure — Will short-term holders keep dumping?
✅ Trading principles
Before the direction is clear, position management > directional bets.
The first leg of short covering is done. The second leg of ETF institutional inflows is ongoing. The third leg of macro is yet to start.
Rushing in to bet on direction now is less wise than managing positions and waiting for signals.
For the rally to turn into a bull market, it takes more than just breaking 80,000—it requires ETF funds, spot trading volume, and macro risk appetite to keep the relay going.
Staying flexible is ten thousand times more important than guessing the direction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 BTC has broken through 80000.
It rose 25% in one week, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023. The Fear and Greed Index surged from 34 to 74, shifting from "Fear" a week ago to nearly "Extreme Greed" now.
Everyone is shouting—FOMO! Chase! Hurry up and chase!
But I want to say something:
This rally hasn’t seen true retail FOMO yet.
📊 Look at the data:
✅ ETF weekly inflows of $1.92 billion—13 US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded the largest weekly net inflow in 10 months. BlackRock’s IBIT has accumulated net inflows exceeding $62 billion.
Who’s buying? Institutions are aggressively scooping up.
✅ Short liquidations of $1.459 billion—189,000 people liquidated. In the past three days, the entire crypto market saw about $4.5 billion in short liquidations.
Who’s being forced to buy? Shorts are covering.
⚠️ But the scale of on-chain profit-taking is still less than one-third of the bull market peak.
Short-term holders (STH) with profitable supply jumped from 26.1% on August 17 to 74.9%. They transferred 43,300 BTC to exchanges to take profits, marking the largest single-day profit-taking since 2026.
43,300 sounds like a lot, right?
But at a true bull market top, single-day profit-taking usually ranges from 130,000 to 200,000 BTC.
43,300 vs. starting at 130,000—not even half.
What does this mean?
The current rise relies on institutions buying + shorts covering.
What about retail?
They’re still hesitating.
A week ago, when Bitcoin was at 63,000, retail was waiting to bottom buy at 45,000 to 50,000. Now at 80,000, they’re starting to accept this price—but haven’t rushed in yet.
The real "retail handoff" hasn’t arrived.
When your friends who never buy crypto start asking you "Can I still buy now?"—that’s the real FOMO top.
🔑 The key is this week.
Wednesday: July PCE inflation data.
Friday: Fed Chair Wash’s first keynote speech at Jackson Hole.
These two events will determine the macro direction.
Once the direction is set, the real FOMO will come.
If the data is dovish and interest rate expectations ease—80,000 is just the "floor" of this rally, not the "ceiling."
If the data is hawkish—profit-taking will accelerate, and a pullback could come anytime.
$BTC $SOL $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Today several big brothers in the group were discussing dog-themed coins.
I studied these two coins this morning and said a few words.
Brothers still holding $DOGE and $SHIB should understand that this round is completely different from 2021.
Doge is now hovering around $0.08-0.09, nearly 90% below the historical high of $0.73. But at least it has Elon Musk's old favor, the spot ETF channel, and the kind of pie-in-the-sky promise like X Pay, so institutional funds are willing to glance at it. When the market really goes crazy bullish, touching $0.2-0.3 doesn't seem unreasonable, but aiming for a new high is basically impossible since 5 billion new coins are minted every year, inflation is right there.
Shib is even worse, around $0.000005, down 95% from the high of $0.000088. Shibarium and coin burning have been hyped for years, but the actual on-chain activity is dead quiet, and the amount burned is just a scratch compared to the 589 trillion circulating supply. If sentiment is right this round, a 2-3x bounce is easy, but returning to the previous high? Unless they burn half the circulating supply or the whole market goes insanely wild, I really don't believe it.
To put it bluntly, doge is probably stronger than shib this round and can get a sip of the soup;
shib is more like an oversold rebound, you can rely on swing trading to get out, and treat returning to the high as a dream.
AI generated a picture and lost money, it's quite funny, haha $SPCX has a complex business structure and shows an independent trend amid rotation in the AI sector
Under the wave of AI market trends, SPCX's performance is quite dual-sided. The company's business portfolio is diverse, covering aerospace launches, Starlink satellite interconnection, and multiple main lines in artificial intelligence, so its business composition is not singular.
Since its IPO listing, the stock's overall performance has been weak. Besides the supply pressure from the unlocking of restricted shares, the mixed nature of its business attributes is also a factor that cannot be ignored. When the market is hot on the AI track, it is difficult for SPCX to purely enjoy the capital dividends brought by the AI theme.
In contrast, the recent market adjustment, especially today's valuation correction in the AI hardware sector and the decline of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, SPCX has shown strong resilience and a relatively resistant trend.
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ $1.92 billion flowed into ETFs.
But this money is not what you think.
On August 25, Bitcoin broke through $80,000, hitting a three-month high. It rose nearly 30% in the past 8 days. Shorts were liquidated for $7.2 billion.
Everyone is focused on one number — $1.92 billion.
Thirteen US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, the largest single-week inflow in nearly 10 months.
Sounds great?
Look closer, and it’s scary.
Clear sign one: Who is actually buying the ETF money?
$1.92 billion. This is the largest single-week inflow in 10 months.
It’s not retail FOMO — it’s institutions systematically increasing their positions.
What does that mean? Retail money is scattered, buying a bit today and selling a bit tomorrow. Institutional money is dumped in all at once.
BlackRock alone absorbed $1.3 billion. The highest single-day inflow was $517 million.
This is not speculation. This is allocation.
If the ETF premium is expanding — meaning institutions are willing to pay above NAV — that’s a signal of active bullish positioning.
But there’s another side to the coin.
Since the start of the year, Bitcoin ETFs have had a cumulative net outflow of $2.9 billion. June alone saw $4.51 billion outflow.
The $1.92 billion inflow is just filling the hole left by previous outflows.
Institutions are replenishing, not initiating new positions.
Clear sign two: Who is selling on-chain?
Look at the on-chain data — this reveals the real cards of retail and whales.
In 8 days, Bitcoin rose from $63,000 to $77,000, and the profit ratio of short-term holders jumped from 26.1% to 74.9%.
What does that mean?
Eight days ago, more than 7 out of 10 people were losing money. Now, more than 7 out of 10 are making money.
Who are these people? Not the big holders who bought at the bottom and held for three years. They are speculators who recently entered and got lucky riding this rebound.
What’s their mindset?
"Finally breaking even, time to run."
The data confirms this.
Net realized profit and loss of Bitcoin transferred to exchanges by short-term holders turned from negative to +28,600 BTC, surpassing the key threshold of 25,000 BTC.
In plain terms: short-term funds are frantically sending coins to exchanges, ready to cash out.
On August 19 alone, short-term holders transferred over 44,300 BTC to exchanges, setting a new single-day profit-taking record since 2026.
In the past 3 days, about 53,000 BTC flowed into major exchanges, with 17,800 BTC going to Binance, a new high since February.
Note one detail: all BTC flowing into Binance came from short-term holders with less than one day of holding. Long-term holders with over 6 months didn’t transfer a single coin to Binance.
What does this indicate?
Sellers are speculators. Non-sellers are the real whales.
So what’s the current situation?
Institutions are supporting the bottom, retail is cashing out.
One side is buying, the other is selling. Two forces are clashing at the $80,000 level.
ETF money keeps flowing in — $1.92 billion is the clear sign, institutions backing the market.
On-chain money is flowing out — 53,000 BTC is the hidden sign, speculators locking in profits.
This is a tug of war.
Who will win?
Look at one indicator: can ETF inflows cover the volume of profit-taking sales?
If yes — price continues upward.
If no — short-term pullback, but the pullback is a better entry point for off-market funds.
There’s another variable: macro.
This week also features Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first speech at Jackson Hole.
July PCE inflation data is also due.
BIS expanding long-term bond repos failed to suppress US Treasury yields, instead triggering a "devaluation trade" in gold and Bitcoin. Whether Warsh’s speech can provide a clear inflation path signal will decide if this rally continues or pauses.
So back to the question —
Bitcoin at $80,000, do you follow the profit-takers or wait with the ETF money?
On one side is the real selling pressure of 53,000 BTC flowing to exchanges.
On the other side is the continuous inflow of $1.92 billion institutional funds.
Do you trust the short-term speculators or the long-term institutions?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 We've all been fooled by the excitement of $80,000, but what really deserves attention is that liquidation order worth less than $10,000. Have you ever thought that when everyone is staring at the same number, the real answer in the market is often hidden in a small corner no one sees? Let me start with what I've seen. Bitcoin surged from 63,000 to 79,555 this week, rising for five consecutive days, looking like a bull coming out of the market. ETF data is also impressive: a net inflow of 1.92 billion in a single week, with a cumulative total of 2.38 billion in August, truly deserving the title of "hottest month." But after staring at the market for a while, something just felt off. What stopped me most was a CORE contract liquidation report. In a full 24 hours, the total liquidation volume across the network was only $9,055, with liquidations accounting for 98.6% in 12 hours. Both long and short positions are pitifully small; short positions are closed at 6,295, long positions at 2,759. The whole market is like a calm shoal, with no decent ripples to emerge. This is not what an active market looks like; it is more like a pond drained of liquidity. My own understanding is this: big money is indeed entering the market, ETFs have been flowing in for five consecutive days, ETH attracted 697 million in a single week, and these numbers are not exaggerated. But the futures market hasn't caught up; leveraged funds are hesitating and waiting. This mismatch of "spot hot, contract cold" makes me feel this rally feels more like squeezing out short sellers rather than a true awakening of market sentiment. After one squeeze, if no one takes over, the price can easily be blown away in one go. ETH is also interesting, breaking through 2.5Bitcoin’s breakout above $80,000 is not a random rally. Four‑layer drivers: Treasury long‑dated bond buyback as the direct catalyst, improved US regulatory‑political sentiment as sentiment booster, an epic short squeeze as the core short‑term engine, plus spot ETF inflows and post‑halving supply contraction to prevent a one‑day fade. Why now? Surging long‑term Treasury yields had been the major headwind for months; this marks the first meaningful expectation reversal. Crowded leveraged shorts BTC at $80,000: Should you chase or wait? Bulls and bears are about to have a decisive battle here
Bitcoin has broken through $80,000.
It has risen nearly 26% in the past 7 days. From $63,000 straight up to $81,000, with almost no significant pullbacks in between.
But I’ve seen two completely opposite opinions in the group—
A: “$80k reached, charge! $100k by year-end!”
B: “Wait for a pullback, buy at $77,000.”
Both sides have valid points and are calling each other fools.
Today, we won’t take sides; let’s lay all the bulls’ and bears’ cards on the table for you to judge.
First, the bulls—strong ammunition.
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October last year.
This isn’t retail buying. BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed $1.3 billion, with funds highly concentrated in top products. What does this mean? Wall Street is systematically accumulating.
Also, there’s something strange about this rally: Bitcoin rose 10% to 11%, but open interest only increased about 4%, and the funding rate is near neutral.
In plain terms—this isn’t a fake rally fueled by leverage; it’s a solid spot buying combined with shorts being liquidated pushing the price up.
Last week, liquidations of short positions across all crypto assets reached $7.2 billion. Short covering-driven rebounds are often the strongest.
Add to that the US Treasury increasing long-term bond repurchases, a weakening dollar, and “devaluation trades” reigniting. Ray Dalio and Bridgewater both say to "moderately allocate Bitcoin and gold."
The bulls’ logic is clear: institutions are buying, shorts are dying, macro is supporting.
Now the bears—risks are also significant.
Bitcoin rose 22% in 8 days. The proportion of short-term holders (STH) in profit surged from 26.1% on August 17 to 74.9%.
People who were losing money a week ago are now all in profit.
What will these people do?
On-chain data already gives the answer. About 53,000 BTC flowed into major exchanges. Of these, 17,800 BTC flowed into Binance, hitting a new high since February.
More notably, the short-term holders’ "net profit and loss exchange flow" has turned positive, reaching 28,600 BTC, breaking the critical warning line of 25,000 BTC.
Selling pressure is building.
$80,000 has always been an important psychological barrier. Historically, every time it hits a round number, there’s fierce competition. This morning near $80,000, the liquidation amounts on both sides were almost equal—bulls liquidated $208 million, bears liquidated $214 million.
And this week there are three time bombs: Wednesday’s July PCE inflation data, Thursday’s Q2 GDP revision, and Fed Chair Warsh’s first keynote speech at Jackson Hole.
Warsh’s speech is "the single event most likely to extend or reverse Bitcoin’s August rally." If it’s hawkish and the dollar strengthens, this rally’s logic will be directly cut off.
The bears’ logic is also clear: the rise is too fast, profit-taking is high, and macro is uncertain.
So, BTC at $80,000—should you chase or wait?
My view: don’t bet on direction, bet on position size.
If you already hold: move your stop-loss up to lock in profits. For every rise above $80,000, your stop-loss should follow accordingly.
If you’re empty or lightly positioned: don’t FOMO chase highs, but don’t miss out either. Wait for a pullback to the $77,000–$78,000 range to buy in batches, or wait for PCE and Jackson Hole to land and confirm on the right side.
Holding 50% to 60% of your base position is currently the most comfortable state. If it rises, you’re happy to have a position; if it falls, you have ammo to buy the dip.
$80,000 is not the end, but the road to higher prices is never a straight line.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Cracks Behind the Frenzy: Bitcoin $BTC 81,000, Ethereum $ETH 2,500, Now Might Be the Time to Short On August 25, 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced another wave of frenzy. Bitcoin briefly surged past $81,000, reaching its highest level since May 15, marking the ninth consecutive trading day of gains, with a cumulative increase of over 25% in the previous eight days. Ethereum simultaneously broke through the $2,500 mark, rising 2.31% in 24 hours. Solana also climbed above $100. Bears have suffered severe liquidations in recent days—between August 19 and 22 alone, over $4 billion worth of short positions across the crypto network were liquidated. The rally seems unstoppable. However, beneath the noise of the celebration, cracks are quietly widening. 1. The Smart Money Is Exiting While retail investors and short-term leveraged traders are caught up in the buying frenzy, what are the real institutional players doing? Shorting. On-chain data shows that three institutional trading firms—Abraxas Capital, Fasanara Capital, and Wintermute—currently hold a combined short position of about 3,425 Bitcoin (worth approximately $265 million) and 138,569 Ethereum (worth about $338 million) on Hyperliquid, totaling over $600 million. Even more noteworthy are the liquidation prices of these short positions. Abraxas Capital’s Bitcoin short liquidation prices are $128,521 and $140,$XRP $BNB $BTC August Anomaly: Bitcoin is delivering its strongest August performance since 2017
The index has reached 81, indicating extreme greed / altcoin market cap share at 37
Bitcoin has gained about 23% this month, aiming for the best August in nearly a decade. Historical data shows the median Bitcoin return in August is about -7%, with only 3 of the past 11 Augusts closing positive. This seasonal divergence itself is an important signal: either the structural logic has been broken, or profit-taking is merely delayed rather than absent.
This week's test: Jackson Hole becomes the biggest variable
Answers will come this week. On Wednesday, July's core PCE (expected to remain 3.3% year-over-year, +0.2% month-over-month) and Q2 GDP revision (expected to be downgraded from 2.1% to 1.5%) will be released; on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will deliver his first keynote speech at Jackson Hole since taking office. A dovish stance will continue to support a weak dollar and low yields rebound; an unexpected hawkish tone could trigger large-scale profit-taking.$PENDLE (around $1.80) is the leader in yield trading, with a TVL of 3.57 billion USD, making it the most direct beneficiary of this round of interest rate narratives.
It surged to 1.92 yesterday and pulled back today, entering an overbought digestion phase. The token distribution is very reassuring: the team and investors' shares will be fully unlocked by September 2024, and the remaining 63.8 million tokens locked in contracts won't be released until 2028, so selling pressure is basically negligible. The product is a real necessity, with PT/YT separation plus customized AMM, making its yield trading model unique. V2 fees allocate 80% to buybacks distributed to stakers, emissions have just been cut by 30%, and inflation is suppressed to around 2%, which is considerate for token holders. The Boros platform tokenizes the funding rate of perpetual contracts, with an open interest of 6.9 billion, and the RWA side's 34 billion pool is still expanding.
Technicals: RSI at 78.97, heavily overbought. 87% of tokens are held by whales, which means it's less likely to crash but can dump very quickly. Support levels are at 1.70 and 1.61, resistance at 2.00, 2.20, and up to 2.40.
Assessment: It's consolidating, so don't chase for now. Wait for it to hold between 1.70 and 1.75 before targeting 2.00 to 2.10, and cut losses if it breaks below 1.60. Wait for a pullback; chasing highs in an overbought zone is not a good habit. With the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaching, the market is holding its breath in anticipation. Before Fed Chair Walsh's speech was even realized, Bitcoin had already shown hesitation—the price repeatedly pulled below $80,000, with weak upward momentum, and no panic selling on the downside. This ambiguous situation, combined with contract leverage not yet fully released, means that once macro signals become clear, sharp price fluctuations are almost inevitable. Currently, the market is focused on only three directions. If Wash's tone is hawkish, emphasizing that inflation is still uncontrolled and interest rates need to remain high, or even hinting at a possible rate hike in September, then U.S. Treasury yields will rise accordingly, the dollar will strengthen in tandem, and Bitcoin will come under direct pressure. In this situation, altcoins usually have a tougher time than Bitcoin. Stocks that have previously risen are prone to indiscriminate adjustments, and short-term chasing funds will be quite passive. If the stance is neutral, acknowledging some weakening economic data but deliberately avoiding the topic of rate cuts, then the market impact will be relatively limited, and the market is likely to continue oscillating within a range. At times like this, the biggest taboo is betting on a one-sided breakout, as the chance of repeated hits is far higher than the returns from trending markets. What truly boosts the situation is the dovish signal. If Washh suggests inflationary pressures are easing and there is no need to keep high interest rates going forward, U.S. Treasury yields will fall, allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum to take the opportunity to test upwards, and altcoins will also gain some breathing room. However, there is also a risk here that can be easily overlooked—if the entire speech is merely a gesture without substantive policy signals, the market's previously optimistic expectations may be dashed and may instead turn into a situation#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold? Good afternoon, all genius traders. Have you eaten?
$BTC BTC breaking above $80,000 is a key threshold driven by a combination of macro factors, policy expectations, and a short squeeze. On the macro side, the US expanded long-term bond repurchases, US Treasury yields declined, and the dollar weakened, activating the "digital gold" devaluation trade logic and improving the overall risk asset environment. On the policy front, the market is betting on the expectation of US crypto-friendly legislation, with the CLARITY Act's Senate review in September becoming the core event driver. On the capital side, spot ETFs shifted from continuous outflows to significant net inflows, with institutional funds entering; meanwhile, a large number of shorts accumulated earlier triggered concentrated liquidations as prices rose, further amplifying the upward momentum, a typical short squeeze scenario.
80,000 is not only a psychological round number but also an important trapped position zone since May. The resistance between $82,000 and $84,000 is heavy, with thin historical trading volume in this range. Continuing upward requires sustained incremental buying to absorb selling pressure. Short-term indicators have entered overbought territory, and after a rapid rise, profit-taking is abundant. A volatile pullback is a high-probability event, with $76,000–$78,000 as the first key support zone. Whether it can hold this support will determine the validity of this breakout.
This is not a brand-new bull market driven by fundamentals but more of an expectation repair. The two core validation points for the subsequent market are: first, whether ETF funds can maintain net inflows—if they revert to net outflows, the rally is likely to fade quickly; second, the outcome of US crypto legislation and the interest rate signals released at the Jackson Hole meeting. If policy benefits fall short of expectations or US Treasury yields rebound, BTC could easily fall back quickly from the $80,000 threshold.
Breaking above $80,000 is just a threshold breakthrough, not an effective hold. If it only briefly pierces above and then quickly falls back below $78,000, it is a false breakout; only after a pullback that holds support with volume cooperation will resistance turn into medium-term support. As the market's barometer, BTC's performance at this level directly determines the continuation of the market for mainstream coins like ETH and SOL.
$ETH $SOL $SPK ($0.0195, down 15.5% today) dropped 15 points today, which actually makes me a bit tempted.
The project itself isn't bad; Sky ecosystem (originally from the MakerDAO lineage) is a liquidity allocation protocol, with the Savings, Lend, and liquidity layer trio, working to allocate capital into DeFi, CeFi, and RWA. The money in the ecosystem circulates through it.
Annual net income is $18.53 million, not a money-burning asset; buybacks have already purchased 91.58 million tokens at an average price of 0.0217. The current market price is 0.0195, which is even lower than the project's own buyback cost, effectively providing a floor below. Circulation is only 31.5%, so the float is light and it can rally quickly, but the long-term unlocking pressure is a real risk, so only trade the swings and don't hold long.
Technically, it just broke through the 55-day resistance at 0.01973 and then pulled back, a standard pattern. Support is between 0.017 and 0.018, resistance at 0.024. Outlook: bullish. The 0.018 to 0.019 range is a buying point, with targets between 0.022 and 0.024, stop loss if it falls below 0.016. The buyback average price is there, so I don't think it can fall much deeper.80,000 has been broken, so what next?
$BTC stands above $80,000, up over 5% in 24 hours, essentially a "devaluation trade" reigniting—Treasury doubling long bond repurchases, ETF net inflows for 5 consecutive days, and $7.2 billion in short positions liquidated all happening simultaneously. However, the 4-hour RSI at 76.81 is overbought; the $80,000-$90,000 range is a historical "liquidity vacuum zone," so short-term focus should be on resistance at $83,000 and support between $74,000-$76,000.
$ETH passively follows up to about $2,507, up over 32% in 24 hours, with a short-term target of $2,600-$2,800. But altcoin season indicators have not confirmed yet; only a breakout above $2,650-$2,700 can target $3,000.
$SOL stands above $100, up 5.41% in 24 hours, with a weekly gain exceeding 32%. Weekly application revenue hits a 29-week high—strong follow-through supported by fundamentals.
OKB breaks above $120, surging 6.49% amid a 2.08% rise in the CeFi sector—platform token shows remarkable elasticity but also the highest volatility.
The biggest variable: US-Iran "economic isolation" lists digital assets as secondary sanction targets, with geopolitical premiums and regulatory headwinds coexisting; on August 28, Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole debut, a hawkish stance could pressure risk assets. Expect wide short-term volatility, prepare for 10-20% swings.
⚠️ The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Risks are extremely high; please make decisions cautiously. $SOL is the strongest mainstream coin today—breaking above 100, with a 24h gain of +7.5%, outperforming BTC (+4.6%) and ETH (+1~3.6%), leading the altcoin rally.
On 8/25, SOL reported around 101-102 (intraday high 102, confirmed break above the 100 integer level), 24h +7.5%, weekly gain starting at 25%. The cumulative net inflow of spot SOL ETFs has surpassed $1B, showing real institutional capital coming in; governance proposal SGP-0003 aims to increase daily burn from 650 to 7,500-9,000 tokens (deflation of 12-14 times), and SIMD-0550 plans to double the annual deflation rate—these fundamentals underpin its leadership in the rally.
However, RSI has dropped back to neutral from an overbought 82, indicating the first wave of short squeeze momentum is fading. The 100-102 range is a dense area of previous highs and trapped positions, with upper shadows indicating significant selling pressure.
SOL’s short squeezes are always the strongest but most fragile; leading the rally means that any pullback will see profit-taking hit hardest. Without new catalysts and relying purely on momentum, a pullback is safer than chasing higher.#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
I believe Bitcoin breaking through $80,000 is merely a surface-level emotional recovery. Whether this rally can evolve from a rebound into a bull market no longer hinges solely on the halving narrative, but rather on the sustained inflow of ETF funds and the resonance with macro liquidity turning points.
The judgment mainly comes from divergence signals on the capital side. Although last week the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of about $1.92 billion, hitting a nearly 10-month high and showing a strong return of institutional allocation; on-chain data and exchange flows reveal hidden risks: as the price surged, the profit ratio of short-term holders rose rapidly, and net inflows on trading platforms began to expand. This means early bottom-fishing profit takers are using the ETF hype to distribute large amounts, with extremely intense chip exchanges. If subsequent buying cannot absorb this selling pressure, $80,000 could easily become a short-term liquidity trap.
Focus must be placed on three macro nodes: July PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole, and employment statistics benchmark revisions. These three events directly determine the expectation gap for a September rate cut. In trading strategy, it is currently unwise to blindly chase breakouts; instead, attention should be paid to whether ETF inflows remain positive during price pullbacks—this is the only litmus test to distinguish a true bull market from a false breakout.
@OKX星球 $MORPHO ($2.59, -10.8% today) First, why focus on it. Apollo, a top global asset management company, directly bought 9% of the total supply. Such a level of institutional investment with real money in the DeFi lending space is rare; to my knowledge, few projects have achieved this. This is its strongest recent logic.
No worries on the chip side, 65.7% is circulating, the rest is locked in migration contracts, slowly releasing only in May 2028, so no concentrated selling pressure in the short to medium term. The product is genuinely used, with total deposits of $13.96 billion running across three chains.
But to be honest, the protocol fee switch has never been turned on, zero buybacks, zero burns, and no income is distributed to token holders. The token is essentially just a governance certificate. So Apollo’s money is buying the narrative, not cash flow.
Technically, RSI touched 70 and was pushed down, MACD is still bullish, support is between 2.3 and 2.35, the first target up is 3, then 3.5, with the previous high at 4.17 still hanging.
My judgment: oscillating with a bullish bias, wait for profit-taking to clear out, 2.3 to 2.35 is the accumulation zone, rebound targets are 2.9 to 3.0, exit if it breaks below 2.2. Keep position size light; this ticket profits from expectations, and if expectations vanish, the rise will be fast too. Accelerating penetration into Asia and emerging market cross-border corridors
As one of Japan's most aggressive traditional financial institutions in the digital asset field, SBI Group's investment matrix spans Ripple, Circle, and the DeFi lending protocol Morpho, and it wholly owns the crypto liquidity market maker B2C2. Leading the investment in Fasset this time means SBI will further advance into blockchain infrastructure and stablecoin application scenarios.
For Fasset, this investment opens a direct channel to SBI's vast financial business empire. Currently, Fasset has established cooperation with SBI Remit, whose remittance network extends to approximately 470,000 offline service points, supporting bank account transfer services covering about 200 countries worldwide.
Hossain clearly stated that the next strategic focus is to further expand OWNNetwork's funding corridors to Japan, Asia, and broader emerging markets, deeply integrating Fasset's infrastructure capabilities with SBI's compliance and financial resource endowments.
From a macro industry perspective, this counter-trend financing releases a clear industry signal: stablecoins are accelerating beyond the limitation of being merely "exchange trading media," deeply penetrating real economy scenarios such as cross-border remittances, corporate treasury management, and international B2B payments. Especially in emerging markets with weak financial infrastructure, traditional cross-border transfers typically rely on multiple intermediary banks, which is time-consuming and costly.
Fasset's "seamless" stablecoin underlying designCould the Treasury market be heading toward better liquidity — and could crypto traders sense it first? 👀 Starting September 9, the U.S. Treasury is expected to expand its long-term bond repurchase operations, with at least $4 billion per transaction. Bassett has confirmed that no purchases have been made yet, but the timing is already drawing attention across markets. This isn’t simply a “liquidity injection” story. The bigger narrative is the potential for improving liquidity and smoother conBTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold?
I believe that breaking through $80,000 is a clearly strong signal, but we shouldn't rush to define $80,000 as the new "iron bottom" just yet.
The real significance of $80,000 is not just the number itself, but that it represents the market completing a psychological barrier and a shift in the chip range.
Next, focus on three signals.
First, see if $80,000 can turn from resistance into support.
The ideal movement is not a crazy rally after the breakout, but:
Break through $80,000 → high-level consolidation → pull back near $80,000 → bulls take over → attack again
If $80,000 can hold during the pullback, the validity of this breakout will be significantly enhanced.
Conversely, if it quickly falls back to $78,000 or even lower after hitting $80,000, beware of a false breakout.
Second, see if ETF funds can continue to relay.
This is currently a more important variable than candlesticks.
The previous rise included short covering and sentiment-driven factors, but if BTC stays above $80,000 and spot ETFs continue to have sustained net inflows, it means:
The rally is shifting from "short squeeze" to "spot fund-driven".
This kind of market is more likely to go far.
If the price hits a new high but ETFs start continuous outflows, be cautious of profit-taking at high levels.
Third, watch the speed of the rise.
After BTC quickly rallies from a low, profit-taking near $80,000 will definitely increase.
So short-term moves like:
Rally → pullback → sideways
are not necessarily bad.
On the contrary, digesting chips near $80,000 is usually healthier than continuous accelerated rises.
Key areas ahead
If BTC can stably hold above $80,000, I will focus on:
$80,000–$82,000: confirmation zone after breakout
$85,000: next psychological resistance
$90,000: a more important round number barrier
But there is no need to directly predict reaching $90,000 now.
What really determines the space is whether there is sustained incremental capital after the breakout.
What situation is most dangerous?
Not BTC standing above $80,000.
But when:
Price hits new highs + ETF funds turn to outflows + volume decreases + leverage rapidly increases.
This means the price is rising, but fewer people are willing to take spot positions.
In this case, $80,000 is more likely to become a temporary top.
Conversely, if:
Sideways above $80,000 + continuous ETF inflows + pullbacks hold + volume expands again on breakout
Then this is a relatively standard strong turnover, and the probability of further space opening up will significantly increase.
My judgment
Short term: biased strong, but the risk of chasing highs is increasing.
$80,000: key confirmation level.
Holding above $80,000: the market is expected to enter a higher price range.
Falling back below $80,000: first observe if it is just a pullback, do not immediately judge a trend reversal.
In a word:
$80,000 is not the end, but a real watershed. Breaking through $80,000 is just the first step; whether turnover can be completed above $80,000 and ETF funds continue to relay will determine whether this rally is a short-term acceleration or a new trend cycle. $BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Saylor may be loading the next $1.6B Bitcoin cannon. 👀
Strategy sold BTC near $64K while everyone was panicking. Now BTC is knocking on $80K.
At first glance, that looked like a terrible call.
But the bigger picture tells a different story.
STRC dropped below $100, making it harder for Strategy to efficiently raise capital through its preferred stock. So instead of aggressively buying BTC, the company shifted gears: sell MSTR, raise cash, support preferred dividends, buy back.
#DailyOrbit