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Hello everyone, I am the Big Prince with a great mindset 🐮
BTC's current rebound is strong, driven mainly by two core factors:
1. The U.S. Treasury has increased the scale of U.S. debt repurchases, causing Bitcoin and gold to rise in tandem, benefiting simultaneously as inflation-hedge assets. Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday is a key macro turning point; if the report performs well, it could further boost the crypto sector and storage stocks.
2. BTC ETFs saw nearly $2 billion in net inflows last week, Coinbase's premium shifted from positive to negative, and retail sentiment changed from panic selling to actively buying the dip. This rally is driven by short squeezes combined with new spot market capital inflows.
Looking at the technical chart:
On the weekly level, last week closed with a strong bullish candlestick, engulfing several previous bearish candles, forming a bullish "door" pattern. Comparing with historical trends, the market may first test the previous high near 82,500 with a false breakout, then pull back to the gap with a long lower shadow, before officially starting a bull market.
BTC faces very strong resistance in the 82,000-83,000 range, where a large amount of previous trapped positions are concentrated. A one-time breakout is very difficult and will likely become a phase of pressure and reversal, with a significant risk of pullback on the daily chart. The previous rally was too fast, so a rapid correction of similar magnitude is also possible.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $ETH is a bit risky this round ⚠️
In 15 minutes, it dropped directly from around 2500 to 2480, MACD turned bearish, and Coinglass long-short ratio fell from about 1.3 to 1.16, clearly showing bulls are starting to retreat.
More importantly: the daily RSI has surged to around 95, indicating severe short-term overheating; but the 15-minute RSI has already dropped to 20, meaning shorting here is also prone to a rebound.
My judgment: short-term bias is bearish, watch the 2480→2460 support; only if it breaks below is there a chance to continue weakening; if it stabilizes around 2480, be wary of a quick rebound.
No chasing longs at highs, no chasing shorts on sharp drops, wait for confirmation before entering. 📉How did ETH rise so much this week?
It went straight from 1900 to 2547, nearly +30% in a single week.
It wasn’t a slow climb; it was almost a vertical surge.
The core reasons are three things stacked together:
1. The US Treasury suddenly doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases, releasing liquidity.
2. ETH spot ETFs had a net inflow of nearly $700 million in a week, with institutions buying real money.
3. A large-scale short squeeze, leveraged short positions liquidated, and passive buying directly pushed the price up.
A typical "macro easing + institutional inflow + short squeeze" triple play.
Now it has pulled back to around 2480 and is consolidating, which is normal digestion.
In the short term, whether 2500 can hold is key, and 2420 is a critical support level.
The rise was too rapid, so chasing the high carries significant risk.
But if the structure can hold after the pullback, this wave might not be over yet.
What do you think? Is this pulse over, or the start of a mid-term recovery?$SNDK is the "injured protagonist" in the storage sector today, but the mid-term view remains unchanged: wait for a full drop before buying.
On 8/24, SNDK closed at 1,493.12, down 6.45% (previous close 1,596); pre-market on 8/25 at 1,492, still down 6.5%; early Korean stocks on 8/25 were even worse, KOSPI -3%, Samsung -8.7%, Hynix -3.41%. YTD still +521%, 52-week high 2,354, this drop is profit-taking, not a breakdown in logic.
Citi remains bullish: NAND supply is tight, AI eSSD demand is exploding, August Investor Day provided a technology roadmap + capital return. SNDK is a core stock in the "storage supercycle."
But short-term pressures are threefold: Samsung shareholder returns below expectations, waiting for NVDA's 8/26 earnings guidance, PE 21.64 is not cheap. Good news is already priced in, don't catch a falling knife before earnings.NVIDIA and Marvell are like two AI report cards this week
The market is not unaware of the strong AI demand; the real question is: with such expensive capital expenditures, has the return actually started to materialize? NVIDIA focuses on upstream pricing power, Marvell focuses on custom chips and customer concentration. Together, these two answers form a more complete health check report.
If the earnings continue to exceed expectations, the AI chain can catch a breath; if only revenue looks good but profit and order quality don't keep up, the market will immediately start to nitpick.
Honestly, AI trading has passed the stage of "rising just because there's a story." Now every company has to do its homework: whoever can turn compute hunger into cash flow will stay; those who only talk about the future will have their valuations harshly corrected.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 The Jackson Hole annual meeting officially kicked off this week, with global markets focusing on a key figure—the new Federal Reserve Chair Wash. This is his first time standing in the spotlight at this annual policy forum since taking office, and every word he makes could become a pivot for pricing risk assets. After the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Wash still did not provide clear directional guidance. Market doubts about the transparency of Fed communications are accumulating, and this uncertainty is already reflected in prices. This time, he must answer at least one question: What data is the Fed focusing on to determine its next move? If the details remain vague, the fog over interest rate expectations will only deepen, and asset price volatility will become more volatile. The upcoming PCE price index, GDP revisions, and durable goods orders data to be released this week will directly test whether inflation remains stubborn. These figures are not just numbers on paper; they work together with Walsh's speeches to shape the market's short-term direction. In other words, relying solely on one piece of data or a single statement is not enough; the real pricing logic is the interaction between data and policy signals. Bitcoin has been continuously stalled and pulled back in the $79,500 to $80,000 range, currently fluctuating around $77,500. The price has already shown hesitation about the $80,000 mark through action, lacking willingness to continue pushing upward. The market is digesting the expected gap through consolidation, waiting for a new catalyst to break the balance. If Walsh's wording leans hawkish, emphasizing that inflation risks have not resolved, then $80,000 is very likely to be the current move#Strategy increases cash through additional issuance, BTC allocation pace under scrutiny
Is it turning bearish, or preparing a big move?
This time, it's not about how much $MSTR was sold, but that after receiving the money, Strategy chooses not to buy $BTC immediately.
Last week, the company sold about 18.26 million shares of MSTR, net raising about $2 billion, maintaining BTC holdings at 840,000 coins. They also added $1.59 billion USD Cash, bringing total USD reserves to $5.1 billion, with total USD liquidity close to $6.7 billion.
This looks more like building a safety cushion for themselves. In the past, Strategy's play was issuing stock, issuing bonds, and buying BTC.
Now they are putting cash, preferred stock, and BTC into a more complex capital structure. Especially with the $13.64 billion buyback of STRC, essentially reducing financing pressure rather than simply being bearish on BTC.
Strategy's biggest advantage now may no longer be the courage to buy BTC, but having enough cash on hand to wait for a big BTC drop.
If BTC continues to rise, this $1.59 billion is future buying ammunition.
If BTC suddenly pulls back, they won’t be forced to sell coins to replenish liquidity like in previous weeks.
I think in the short term, MSTR and BTC might show some divergence.
If BTC remains strong, Strategy is likely to restart buying coins.
If BTC pulls back, MSTR’s dilution pressure and capital structure will again become market focus.
Next, watch for when they actually start deploying this $1.5 billion into the market—that will be an important signal for the next round of BTC allocation rhythm.$BTC Short-term violent breakthrough of $80,000, with a intraday high of $81,100, a 24-hour increase of over 4%, a 7-day cumulative increase close to 26%, the Panic and Greed Index reaching the 74 greed range, daily RSI reaching 84, entering a severe overbought zone, with short-term volatility likely to amplify sharply. Spot BTC-ETF has seen large inflows for several consecutive days, combined with short stamping squeezes, with funds first flowing into Bitcoin itself, then spilling over to some altcoins with real business. $BICO Following the sector, funds have rallied for a rally. BICO belongs to the account abstraction and BTC security infrastructure track, with verifiable business transaction data on-chain, circulating supply reaching 98.29%, with almost no large team token unlock selling pressure. This is its core difference from CORE. In contrast, $CORE is also in the BTC-Fi sector, with the market dividend of Bitcoin's explosive breakthrough of 80,000 but very limited transmission. The current price still fluctuates around $0.025, with $0.026-0.028 being a heavy trapped resistance zone, and $0.024 serving as a life-or-death support level. Community sentiment instantly collapsed. Some people, seeing BTC break 80,000 and BICO surging, began to fantasize again that CORE might also explode; others, after repeated historical proofs, remained clear-headed: market dividends do not equal project dividends, narratives cannot be directly exchanged for token prices, CORE project social media accounts continue to paint big promises, continuing to hype BTCFi's grand future while avoiding on-chain revenue and token selling pressure BTEven the big shots can't escape chasing highs and selling lows?
Yesterday at $1210, I just took profits, making $1.95 million. This morning, I even pretended to place a bunch of low buy orders between $1030-$1060, but when I saw the rebound, I immediately canceled those orders and chased the rally, buying back at an average price of $1168, and even increased my position by 34%! Now the triple long position is floating with a 9.9% profit. It looks pretty good, but I feel something's off.
Notice one detail — the $1.95 million profit from yesterday wasn’t withdrawn at all; it was all added back into the same position. This guy used to be known for precise bottom-fishing and top-selling, so how did he turn into someone stubbornly holding onto a single asset? The liquidation price is $636, leaving nearly a $500 safety buffer, which is indeed stable, but the problem is, he’s put all his bullets on $SKHYNIX, not even diversifying his profits. Is this genuine confidence or just gambling?
Even more extreme, on the afternoon rebound of July 29, he chased in $31.38 million within half an hour, using the exact same tactic. Both times, he only acted after the rebound was confirmed, never bottom-fishing on the left side. To be clear, those low buy orders might just be for show; missing out is more painful for him than being stuck. Now he’s placed two more add-on orders between $1162-$1170 and wants to buy over $2 million more...
Combining these two identical strategies, this guy’s style is very clear: direction matters more than price. Once the rebound is confirmed, he jumps in first and talks later. The low-priced orders are just insurance.$ONDO's market is breaking through and pulling back at a critical level. The locked value of on-chain tokenized stocks and ETFs has just surpassed the $1 billion mark.
The on-chain catalog of spot assets has expanded to 440 securities, with 292,000 positions spread across more than 150,000 independent holders.
The derivatives market and secondary market are battling near support levels, with liquidity testing the absorption capacity of these on-chain real assets.
The accumulation of real assets at the protocol level provides a foundation for token liquidity, but cross-regional compliance restrictions still define the physical boundaries for incremental off-chain inflows.
If the pullback defense level continues to be supported by spot capital, the growth in on-chain stock liquidity will drive the market to further test previous highs.
If the defense level fails and incremental buying falls short of expectations, compliance frictions may accelerate the contraction of liquidity premiums.
When the scale of on-chain assets stops growing or even sees position outflows, the current liquidity expectations based on asset expansion will be directly disproven.
The most important variable to watch in the coming days is whether turnover at key support levels can continuously absorb the incremental resistance caused by compliance restrictions.
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视The US has launched a full blockade against Iran, so has the oil price been controlled? The real issue is the global refining capacity plummeting sharply!
Previously, the expectation of war pushed oil prices up by 7%, but now that the event has happened, bulls are cashing out and running. The market simply doesn't believe the US can completely seal off Iran; Iran has always sold oil through gray channels, and buyers will definitely take this opportunity to demand a big discount and secretly take delivery.
The real crisis is actually on the refining side. Nearly 20% of Middle East capacity has been halted due to the conflict, and Russia has banned exports. Now diesel prices in Europe have surged 70%, and the US can only rely on draining inventories to hold the line.
With winter approaching and demand surging, high energy costs will definitely push inflation to explode again.
It is expected that crude oil will fluctuate around $90 in the short term, but if Iran truly blocks the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could surge back up at any time.
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level?
BTC really hit eighty thousand
Last time at seventy-two thousand
I still thought it was a rebound, not a reversal
But in less than a week, it directly surged to eighty thousand
ETF net inflow last week was $1.9 billion
Setting the largest weekly inflow record in nearly ten months
Short covering plus spot buying, both pushing together
But don’t get carried away
The profit ratio of short-term holders has already soared
Platform inflows are also rising
Profit-taking pressure is building up
This surge is different from the last time it hit seventy-two thousand
Back then, it was only short covering, no ETF relay
Now there is continuous ETF net inflow, institutions are buying with real money
Strategy went from a loss of $9.5 billion to a profit of $4.7 billion within a week
BlackRock ETF is also continuously accumulating
$BTC Fundamental Research Report $FIL / Filecoin (DePIN) $3.20
Summary: Filecoin ($FIL) overall score 46/100, rating Early Stage Project, insufficient validation. Breaking down the three layers: company team has cash reserves, protocol network shows paid usage traces, token value capture has been realized.
Filecoin (token $FIL), DePIN sector. Leading decentralized storage. Competitors include AR, STORJ. Traditional compute rental giants like AWS, CoreWeave charge by GPU hour, with A100 monthly rent at $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high barrier. On-chain solutions fragment compute power for bidding, suppliers require no centralized approval, idle GPUs become available supply. Customer price $50-$500/month, settlement in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, paid usage traces exist. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side: address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private/public sales via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding grade B—not representing long-term tech VC holdings, tech integration via API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating +), no clear annualized buyback burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Filecoin $3.00B, AR undisclosed, STORJ undisclosed. FDV: Filecoin $4.20B, AR undisclosed, STORJ undisclosed. Annual revenue: Filecoin $2.00M, AR undisclosed, STORJ undisclosed. Monthly active addresses/users: Filecoin undisclosed, AR undisclosed, STORJ undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV to revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Final judgment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 46/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overdrawn, FDV moderate. Risk warnings: short-term large unlock dump, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Continuous monitoring: protocol fees weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Public data inference, not investment advice. Core indicator changes over 30% invalidate conclusions.
Fundamentals analyzed, market direction is another matter.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitAfter several years of AI surge, the industry has finally hit an extremely deadly hard wall—the "Memory Wall." At the recently held Hot Chips 2026, Micron released a set of data that sent chills down the spine of the entire AI industry: AI accelerator computing power triples every two years, while HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) bandwidth increases less than twice over the same period. The gap between computing power and storage is visibly widening at a rapid pace. Even more frightening, this wall not only blocks the upper limit of computing power output but is also directly collapsing the training ground for large models. Meta Steps into a Pitfall: 17% of Unexpected Interruptions Are Actually Because of It Previously, people thought large model training interruptions were mainly due to software bugs or GPU overheating, but Micron cited Meta's Llama 3 training test data to reveal the truth: among all unexpected training interruptions, about 17% are caused by HBM failures. As HBM stacks increase, any minor process defect or thermal stress damage can instantly paralyze training tasks costing tens of millions of dollars. Physical Limit Pressure: Three Major Crises of Area Consumption and Wafers The "Area Monster" of Shift: In the latest flagship packaging (2 GPUs integrated into 8 12-layer HBM4 stacks), HBM swallows nearly 90% of the system's semiconductor area, which is 8% of the GPU itself Gold is rising, US Treasury yields are climbing, so what exactly is BTC trading this time?
Brothers, according to the old textbooks, today should be the toughest environment for BTC:
Gold has surged to around $4,700, the 30-year Treasury yield remains above 5.2%, and funding costs have not significantly decreased, yet BTC has rallied from around 64,000 to 81,000. Is the market crazy, or are we misreading it?
I think this round of BTC trading is not about "rate cuts" but another matter—the repricing of the US dollar and US Treasury credit.
The US Treasury has expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, which the market interprets as: long-term yields cannot continue to rise indefinitely, and future debt may be diluted through liquidity and inflation. As a result, both gold and BTC are being bought simultaneously. The logic is no longer just risk appetite but scarce assets hedging fiat credit.
But there is also a warning signal here: if Treasury yields continue to break through 5.3%, it represents inflation heating up again rather than debt concerns, then BTC may revert to a high-volatility risk asset.
On the chart, BTC first needs to hold 80,000; above that, 81,280 is the short-term high. ETH stands above 2,500, indicating funds have not fully exited high Beta.
Holding 80,000 means BTC is trading credit risk; falling below 80,000, the story may turn into profit-taking at highs.
$BTC $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #BTC80KHoldOrFold Bitcoin has broken above $80,000 again, extending a rapid recovery supported by short covering and renewed institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.92 billion last week, their strongest weekly inflow in nearly ten months. Unlike a purely liquidation-driven spike, the consecutive daily ETF inflows suggest that fresh capital is participating in the move. However, more short-term holders are now profitable, while increasing exchange deposits may indicate that some investors are preparing to sell. The next test is whether Bitcoin can hold $80,000 without depending on another wave of forced short covering. July PCE inflation, revisions to employment data and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech could affect yields, the dollar and risk appetite. Continued ETF inflows and healthy spot volume would strengthen the argument that this is becoming a broader bull-market recovery. If flows slow while leverage rises, $80,000 could turn into a profit-taking zone. The level matters, but the quality of demand behind it matters more.비트코인이 먼저 움직였고, 이제 시장의 다음 변수는 알트코인 회전 여부다. BTC가 7만 7천 달러 부근에서 횡보하는 동안, ETH가 2,400~2,500달러 구간을 재차 테스트하는 흐름은 이미 가격에 반영된 '대형 자산 안정화' 국면이다. 시장이 아직 가격에 반영하지 못한 변수는 두 가지다. 첫째, BTC와 ETH에서 이탈한 자금이 실제로 중소형 알트코인으로 이동하는지, 둘째, 그 이동이 일시적 데이트레이딩인지 중기 포지셔닝인지다. 현재 BEAT, BICO, KAITO, LAB, SNDK 등 거론되는 종목들의 매수 압력은 회전을 확증하기에 부족하다. 가격 상승이 아닌 거래량과 체결 강도 기준으로 봐도 아직 신호는 혼조세다. 이는 '위험선호 회복 → 알트 상승'이라는 단순한 서사가 아니라, 시장이 대형 자산의 박스권을 인정하면서도 다음 방향을 찾지 못하고 있는 정체 상태로 읽는 것이 정확하다. 크로스마켓 전달 구조를 보면, BTC가 7만 7천 달러를 지지하는 한 알트코인 하방은 제한SK Hynix repurchases 650,000 shares daily, and this repurchase will continue for about 2 months. After that, an even larger next wave of repurchases will begin. Currently, the daily trading volume is just over 3 million shares, meaning the daily repurchase accounts for 21.7% of the trading volume. The lower limit is gradually accumulated this way. $SKHY $SKHYNIX 📌BTC breaking through 80,000 is not surprising; holding steady still requires consolidation confirmation
BTC reaching the 80,000 mark was actually expected, but most likely it will consolidate and rest for two days before choosing the next direction.
This round of rally is driven by multiple positive factors resonating together: US Treasury repos pushing down long-term rates, a weaker dollar driving depreciation trades, spot ETF net inflows of $1.9 billion in a single week, combined with tens of billions of dollars in short squeeze liquidations, supported by macro, capital, and short squeeze forces — this is not an illogical random surge.
From a mid-term perspective, to truly hold above 80,000, the daily candle needs to close firmly above it. The 80,000-85,000 range gathers a large amount of previous trapped positions, with profit-taking and stop-loss selling pressure concentrated.
In terms of operation, firmly do not chase highs; the current position is a mid-term watershed, not a point for reckless entry.
For personal reference only, not investment advice, strictly control position size in contracts.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
$BTC Let's talk about Pinduoduo and Amazon~ I still favor Amazon more.
Pinduoduo's Q2 revenue was 112.4 billion, only up 8% year-over-year, falling short of market expectations, and net profit dropped 12%. In the same week, Amazon's stock price surged 15% in a single day after its earnings report, with AWS growth at 37%. Two e-commerce giants: one seems to be in reverse gear, the other stepping on the accelerator.
Pinduoduo's problem lies overseas. Chen Lei himself said Temu is entangled with regulatory and compliance demands from various countries, facing new challenges in globalization, so they shifted their main focus back to domestic grocery shopping, aiming for 400 billion in revenue this year. Amazon, on the other hand, is fully capitalizing on AI infrastructure, raising its full-year capital expenditure to $220 billion. Even the Echo speaker prices were pushed up due to rising storage chip costs, passing on cost pressures.
One is fully benefiting from the AI dividend, the other is painfully hitting regulatory walls. If Pinduoduo's growth doesn't recover, the market's valuation logic will have to be reconsidered. #亚马逊市值破3万亿，500亿押注先赢一局 8.25 Is this the start of a new bull market or the last jump of the old bull market?
1. Previous bear market bottoms have appeared around the end of the year, but this time it's in the third quarter, much earlier than before.
2. Previous bear market bottoms were accompanied by stock index declines forming a bottom, but this time the stock index is at a new high.
3. Historically, only the last bull market saw BTC drop from 64,000 to 30,000 before reaching a new high again—also a halving, also bottoming in July, and the stock index was also near a new high.
Not necessarily rigidly sticking to old methods, but be cautious of this possibility Charge forward!
This wave of $BTC has indeed been thoroughly shaken out. After several months of sideways trading that wore down most holders, it surged from 64,000 directly to break through 80,000 with strong volume, showing clear short squeeze characteristics—about $4.5 billion in short leverage across the market was liquidated in the past three days, and this forced buying further pushed prices up.
More importantly, $ETH funds are genuinely flowing back in real money. Last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, hitting a 10-month high, with BlackRock's IBIT alone attracting $1.3 billion in a single week. Coupled with the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases and improved regulatory expectations, the money is returning.
As for $OKB, I bought in at 152 and have held since. Watching it drop from a high of 258 has been tough, but with a current market cap just over $2.1 billion and a fully circulating supply, in the context of this round of institutional capital inflow, the cost-performance ratio isn't bad. The key is whether BTC can hold steady, as it determines the ceiling for the entire market. $BTC $ETH $OKB
$BTC 80,000, finally it happened, Bitcoin touched it.
But now I'm actually not as excited as I was a few days ago.
The reason is simple: $BTC went straight from over 60,000 to 80,000, and what really changed is not just the price, but everyone's attitude.
When it was over 60,000, the market was full of "bear market is coming," "it will be halved again," "50,000 is the bottom."
Now that it hit 80,000, some are shouting 100,000, 120,000, even feeling "if you don't get on board now, it'll be too late."
This is exactly what I'm most cautious about.
This round is indeed very strong; last week BTC's weekly increase exceeded 22%, marking one of the largest weekly USD gains in history; during today's push to 80,000 USD, a large number of shorts were directly liquidated, with 24-hour short liquidations exceeding 220 million USD.
But don't forget:
The fastest rise is often when FOMO is the worst.
Personally, I won't blindly turn bullish just because it broke 80,000.
Next, I want to watch two things: first, whether BTC can truly hold above 80,000, not just spike and fall back; second, whether funds will start to spread from BTC to ETH and altcoins.
If 80,000 holds, and ETH and altcoins follow, then the market will really feel comfortable.
If #BTC charges alone and altcoins continue to lie dormant, I will be more cautious.
So my personal view is simple:
No one dared to buy at 60,000, and at 80,000, don't forget the risks just because you're afraid of missing out.
The cruelest part of this market is never that it can't go up.
But rather—once it goes up, you suddenly want to go all in; the biggest taboo in crypto is chasing highs and selling lows!
$ETH $OKB #BTC breaking through 80,000 USD, can it hold the new level $CORE Harsh Reality: BTC Soars Wildly, It Drops 99.78%
Remember February 8, 2023, the day CORE launched? BTC was only at 190,000, and CORE surged to 6.9U that day.
Riding on the halo of the Bitcoin ecosystem and the overwhelming BTCFi stories, countless people were fooled into entering the market with full faith, all thinking they could ride the big bull market wave and get a share.
The dramatic reality is right before our eyes.
$BTC skyrocketed, reaching over 800,000 at its peak, and still holds steady around 540,000, lifting the entire Bitcoin sector.
In contrast, $CORE is now only around 0.025, having dropped 99.78% from its highest point.
Clinging tightly to the Bitcoin narrative as a talisman, constantly mentioning BTC ecosystem dividends.
While the big bull market rages on, it gets none of the benefits; when the market rises, it falls alone; when the market fluctuates, it dives.
If this BTC derivative logic really held true, under Bitcoin’s epic rally, how could it end up nearly zero?
The slogans are loud, but the market gives the coldest answer with real money.
The market opportunity has been given, external dividends are right in front of us.
Without users, without business, without a real on-chain ecosystem, no matter how glamorous the Bitcoin story is, it can’t stop the token’s continuous collapse.
Don’t use a distant future to self-hypnotize over the current brutal market.
⚠️ The above is only a personal market review and reflection, not any investment advice. The crypto market is extremely risky; please view the market rationally. The financial market on August 25 is appearing a rather interesting paradox: geopolitical tensions have not disappeared, but oil prices have fallen sharply, while Bitcoin and some crypto assets continue to rise. Brent fell by more than 2% in the previous session and continued to fall by about 1% in the August 25 session, to around $91.27 per barrel; WTI also fell by about 0.9% to $84.25 per barrel. The market seems to assess that the new sanctions have not yet created an immediate oil supply shock. This is an important point when Bitcoin has already reached 80,000, while OKB is still stuck below 120, and many people are asking why.
To put it simply, these two are fundamentally different.
BTC is currently driven by the "national strategic reserve" narrative, with institutional funds, ETFs, and national buying—none of which are related to OKX.
OKB is a platform token, so it depends on: how well the exchange business is doing, whether new users are coming in, and how hot the new token launch events are.
The reality is that OKX has been suppressed by Binance this year, with no increase in market share. Concepts like Web3 wallets and on-chain trading have already been hyped and the market is now immune.
Technically, OKB has been oscillating between 100-120 for a long time, with a lot of trapped positions above. Without a new story, funds are unwilling to push it up. 90% of coins are rising, yet top market makers hold $160 million in short positions; this is not bearish betting, but passive order absorption.
TradingBeats monitoring shows that among the 76 main perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid with over $1 million trading volume in the past 24 hours, 66 rose, accounting for about 86.8%, with a median increase of 4.6%. BTC rose 1.8%, ETH rose 2.7%, and some altcoins rose over 10%.
Strangely, three market maker addresses labeled Wintermute, Cumberland, and Auros collectively hold about $230 million in short positions, with long positions only about $9.93 million, resulting in a net short exposure of about $220 million and an unrealized loss of about $6.92 million. Wintermute alone holds 61 short positions worth about $163 million, with ETH, BTC, SOL, and HYPE accounting for nearly $100 million.
But they are not betting on direction.
The order book structure makes it clear: Wintermute currently has 1,718 orders, with 854 sell orders and 864 buy orders, covering 77 contracts, 74 of which have two-way quotes; Auros has the same market-making structure. They are quoting normally as market makers, not making one-sided directional bets.
The real reason is the one-sided market rally. As aggressive buyers continuously consume sell orders, market makers, as counterparties, are forced to sell more contracts, naturally causing perpetual inventory to tilt toward shorts. The $160 million short position essentially reflects the rising market pushing risk inventory onto liquidity providers.
So don’t interpret this as "smart money shorting." Market makers earn from spreads, not direction — but when the market is too one-sided, they have to bear this inventory. As of this writing, Wintermute has already started covering short positions and reducing net short exposure.On-chain data shows that some whales continue to transfer BTC into exchanges, indicating an increased willingness to cash out. The inflow of funds into spot ETFs is also starting to weaken, with chips gradually shifting to retail investors.
From a macro perspective, inflation remains sticky, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are continuously being postponed, with the possibility of maintaining high interest rates for a longer period. BTC is highly correlated with the Nasdaq; if U.S. tech stocks experience a pullback, the crypto market will likely fall even harder.
In the coming months, a one-sided rally is unlikely, with a high probability of a weak consolidation and significant correction risk. It is not advisable to heavily chase gains at this stage; try to avoid leverage and keep more cash on hand to cope with volatility. LAB is down nearly 48% since Aug. 1, while $BEAT fell from $6 highs under real token-unlock pressure—including a $67.8M release on Aug. 1.
But here’s the part worth watching: not every deep drawdown ends the same way.
The ZEC comparison doesn’t fully hold up either. Its breakout was backed by a real ETF catalyst, not simply “hard consolidation.”#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls #StrategyBuildsCash With the rapid rebound of $BTC and $ETH, the altcoin market, which had been quiet for a while, is becoming active again, and the DeFi sector has performed impressively in this round of rebound. So which ones truly benefit token holders? If you only look at protocols for making money, you'll definitely fall into traps. Today, I'll use data to see which tokens are worth our attention and which ones should be avoided. 1. DeFi is shifting from "hyping narratives" back to "buying cash flow" Currently, the total value locked in DeFi across the network TVL has rebounded to $88.772 billion: Here, three scenarios need to be distinguished: 1. Rising TVL + simultaneous rise in stablecoin market cap = incremental funds entering the market, which benefits the DeFi sector; 2. TVL rises, but stablecoins don't; it's just the floating profit from BTC/ETH price hikes, which is a "paper boom"; 3. If TVL drops rapidly, it often signals liquidation on-chain and declining market risk appetite. Stablecoin market cap hasn't increased significantly, but there are subtle signs of a turning point. Combining the three scenarios I mentioned above, it's clear that this DeFi data rebound is driven by price increases for Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, related DeFi protocol revenues have recently surged, and I think the turnaround of incremental funds may be seen in the next 30-60 days. Therefore, we must do our homework and plan ahead. Next, let's look at the most direct data: the DeFi sector now has a number of protocols capable of steadily generating millions of dollars in monthly revenue120,000 → 58,000 → 80,000: Has the bottom really passed, or is this just a brief breather halfway up the mountain 🤔🤔?
To be honest, I feel really conflicted right now.
Looking back at history, there have been four major bear markets. Even the mildest one saw a retracement of 77%. Starting from 120,000, the theoretical low should have at least touched 27,000, and in extreme cases even 18,000. Now the lowest point only dropped to 58,000 and rebounded to 80,000. No matter how you look at it, it seems like just a pause during a downtrend.
Looking at the time cycle, previous bear markets bottomed out over at least a full year. Looking back at this round, how long has it really been? If 58,000 is the final bottom, then this bear market is too mild, so mild that I feel uneasy and can’t easily believe it.
But then I ask myself: Can the old historical patterns really still apply to the current market?
ETF funds keep flowing in continuously; Wall Street pension funds and hedge funds are putting real money into the market; the supply contraction from the halving hasn’t fully played out yet. Also, the drop to 58,000 came with huge turnover volume, and many long-term institutional holders repositioned and built new positions at that level.
It can’t be that all these smart players with massive resources are wrong in their judgment.
This is where the contradiction lies. If 58,000 is truly the bottom, then why is the rebound to 80,000 repeatedly suppressed, making it hard to push further up?
If 80,000 is the start of a new rally, why is the volume weakening and market enthusiasm cooling down? Even the most optimistic analysts only cautiously talk about a steady rise; no one dares to boldly call for new all-time highs.
You’ll find that the bullish arguments make sense, and the bearish logic also holds.
This is the most tormenting phase of the market, presenting bearish evidence on one side and bullish signals on the other, leaving people stuck in the middle, swaying back and forth. Bears believe history always repeats itself; bulls insist "this time is different." Both sides don’t understand each other and think the other is ridiculous.
I’m slowly feeling that reality might lie somewhere in between.
It’s neither the ultimate bottom that causes despair and widespread panic, nor the grand start of a bull market. It’s more like a chaotic zone where bulls and bears are strangling each other.
From here, it can pull up to 90,000 or 100,000, tempting you to chase higher; or it can drop back to 60,000 or even 50,000, forcing you to cut losses painfully and exit.
What we really need to be wary of isn’t the number 80,000 itself. It’s that everyone is trapped in a binary choice: Will it break below 58,000? Can it hold above 80,000?
Once the market decides on one direction, the opposite leveraged positions will be liquidated en masse, and the ensuing volatility will be so intense it will exceed most people’s psychological tolerance.
So I no longer dare to make definitive conclusions like before, saying "it’s not the bottom yet." This market beast is best at punishing overconfident people.
It could very well stop falling at 58,000 and slowly oscillate upward; or it could first rally to 85,000 to create a bull trap, then crash hard back to 40,000.
I’m no longer guessing the outcome.
Right now, 80,000 is neither a ticket to bull market paradise nor a notice of falling into the abyss. It’s just a crossroads repeatedly tugging at human nature.
Keep a clear head and hold some ammunition.
Don’t go all in, don’t completely exit and watch, don’t stubbornly take one side. Wait for the market to reveal its cards, then follow its lead.
Accepting that the market itself is full of unknowns, forcing yourself to pick a side is meaningless. This is probably the best mindset to face such a torn market.
$BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Bitcoin has just shown the market that demand is back, with spot ETF inflows recording one of their strongest weeks of 2026, but here is the part I think many traders are overlooking: strong inflows after a major rally do not automatically mean the trend is safe. The real test is whether this demand can continue when the excitement cools down. If institutions keep buying while BTC consolidates, that would tell us something very different from a rally driven mainly by short covering and momentBessent's real scheme: forcing a short squeeze on U.S. Treasuries CTA, pushing the 10-year yield down to 4.3%?
Bessent is accused of artificially driving up bond prices through Treasury repo operations and debt structure adjustments, triggering large-scale passive covering by CTA trend funds (whose current short positions are near historical extremes), forcibly suppressing the 10-year yield to 4.3%, thereby gaining political leverage for the Trump administration. Goldman Sachs estimates that if bond prices rise by 2 standard deviations, the covering scale will set a historical record.Since its launch in October last year, Trade.xyz's perpetual contracts for oil, indices, and pre-IPO assets on HL have reached a cumulative trading volume of about $500B. This number is huge, but it still comes down to the same old question: how does trading volume translate into token value capture? Without clarity on how much fees the platform collects, who the revenue belongs to, whether users are trading repeatedly, how high the market-making costs are, and whether regulations will change the product structure, no matter how high the trading volume is, it only reflects the platform's prosperity and has nothing to do with the users.The market is clearly stratifying with three main assets taking on distinct roles. BTC remains a solid pillar as ETF inflows continue, pushing the price from 60,000 USD to around 79,800 USD, suitable for a long-term core position. ETH is breaking out thanks to the wave of institutionalization as the spot ETF recorded a net inflow of about 699 million USD during the week, the highest level of the year, driving the price from 1."Korean retail investors just redeemed 1 billion from SK Hynix, and exchanges immediately offered a 20x leverage meat grinder"
Korean funds were just forced by regulators to withdraw nearly $1 billion from SK Hynix and Samsung leveraged ETFs, and crypto exchanges turned around and loaded this liquidity into 20x leveraged derivative meat grinders.
Binance pushed all 2x SK Hynix long/short and semiconductor ETFs onto the order book at once. Buying leveraged ETFs through traditional brokers requires completing 5 days of simulated trading. Nearly $1 billion was forced out this month, with trading volume plummeting 90%. But on crypto exchanges, there is no review process and no price limit restrictions.
This is not about providing a channel to US stocks; it is a cross-market liquidity dimensionality reduction strike.
Traditional 2x leveraged ETFs inherently suffer daily rebalancing mathematical volatility decay. Now exchanges have added a 20x leverage layer, directly amplifying the underlying volatility by 40 times. US stocks trade only 6.5 hours daily. If a chip black swan event breaks out overnight, market makers can use 20x leverage to preemptively dump positions in the crypto space.
While traditional finance is still struggling with how to set controls to cool down, crypto exchanges have already transformed US stock targets into 24/7 cash machines using 20x leverage. $BTC The bull market is here, can $BTC hold steady at 80,000 and continue to break through?
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is around $80,659, having reached a high of $81,104 and dipped to a low of $76,891. It swung more than four thousand dollars within a day, so this bullish candle does look very satisfying. But to say that $80,000 is already stable, I think it's still a bit early.
This rise isn't purely driven by sentiment. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.92 billion. These buy orders have supported the market, but Bitcoin has already risen more than 20% in a week. Those who made profits earlier want to cash out, and the newly leveraged buyers are easily shaken out, so the intraday spikes and dips are normal.
I'm not looking at many fancy indicators right now; mainly waiting to see how the $79,500 to $80,000 range behaves. If the price can hold after a pullback, then $80,000 will slowly turn from previous resistance into support. After surpassing today's high of $81,104 again, the market will have reason to look toward around $84,000.
But if it breaks through and then falls back below $79,000, and ETF inflows start to slow, I won't insist this is just a shakeout. It might need to retest around $77,000 again.Since the concentrated rebound of storage stocks on July 30, SKHX, SNDK, and MU on Hyperliquid have risen approximately 29.9%, 52.6%, and 28.5% respectively; however, the total value of their open interest contracts on Hyperliquid has dropped from about $999 million to $677 million, a decrease of approximately $322 million, or 32.2%.
The actual number of open interest contracts has significantly contracted:
- SKHX's OI decreased from about $540 million to $385 million, down 28.7%; during the same period, the number of contracts held decreased by 45.1%;
- SNDK's OI decreased from about $196 million to $157 million, down 19.5%; the number of contracts held decreased by 47.2%;
- MU's OI decreased from about $263 million to $134 million, down 49.1%; the number of contracts held decreased by 60.4%.
The recent nearly one-month rise in these three storage assets was not accompanied by a continuous expansion of open interest positions. Since prices rose significantly during the same period, looking only at OI in dollar terms underestimates the degree of contract number decline. On-chain data for this round of the market shows a trend closer to a "deleveraging rebound."
In the past 7 days, the deleveraging trend has continued. Comparing snapshots from the afternoon of August 18, the combined OI of the three dropped from about $869 million to $677 million, a decrease of approximately $192 million, or 22.1%.
Specifically, SKHX's OI fell 21.9%, with contract numbers down 24.1%; SNDK's OI fell 30.3%, with contract numbers down 21.0%; MU's OI fell 10.4%, with contract numbers down 4.2%.
Comparing the total margin of million-dollar whales also shows a decline in leverage over the past 7 days. From August 18 to now:
- SKHX long effective leverage dropped from about 4.5x to 3.6x, shorts from 5.5x to 2.9x;
- SNDK longs dropped from 5.8x to 3.4x, shorts from 6.7x to 5.9x;
- MU longs dropped from 6.8x to 4.8x, shorts from 7.7x to 4.7x. Bitcoin just broke through $80,000, and the whole market is celebrating.
Strategy, the largest Bitcoin whale on Earth, didn’t move a muscle last week.
From August 17 to 23, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR stock through the ATM program, raising $2 billion net.
And then? Not a single BTC was bought.
Holdings stayed at 840,447 coins, completely unchanged.
But that’s not the point. The point is—
They now hold $6.7 billion in cash.
$5.1 billion in USD Reserve, plus $1.59 billion newly established USD Cash.
$6.7 billion sitting in the account. That’s equivalent to 0.56% of Bitcoin’s total market cap, and about one-third of the daily trading volume.
This is not pocket change; this is a nuclear bomb.
Strategy’s past playbook was simple: raise funds → buy BTC → raise funds again → buy more BTC.
But this time it’s different.
After getting $2 billion, $136 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares, $300 million replenished the USD Reserve, and the rest was all put into the newly established USD Cash account.
The CEO publicly said: “As of August 23, Strategy holds about 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with net leverage at 0%.”
Net leverage at 0%.
A company that once bought coins on borrowed money now says it’s zero-leverage.
It’s like the gambler you know who always goes all-in suddenly telling you he’s now holding only cash, no chips.
Do you believe it?
I don’t.
This is not retreat; this is gathering strength.
Next, watch three signal lights:
Signal One (short term, 1-2 weeks): What management says.
The CEO has already hinted—“plans to continue increasing Bitcoin holdings before year-end.”
But words are words, money is money.
In the coming weeks, if SEC filings explicitly state “continue to increase BTC holdings,” MSTR’s premium will quickly recover.
Currently, MSTR’s mNAV has dropped from a high of 1.4x at the start of the year to about 0.7x—meaning the stock price is cheaper than the value of the Bitcoin it holds.
This means the market is selling this “Bitcoin proxy” at a discount.
Any signal of accumulation will quickly narrow this discount.
Signal Two (mid term, Q4): When the price hits a range, will they act?
If BTC pulls back to a range—say $55k-$58k—watch if Strategy makes a move.
Note, their average holding cost is $75,385. BTC is now above $80k, so they have an unrealized gain of about $3.4 billion.
But what if it falls back?
If Strategy acts in the $55k-$58k range, it means they recognize that as the “value zone.”
This will be the strongest psychological support in the market—if even the biggest whale is buying at this level, what is there to fear?
Signal Three (long term): Where will the money go?
$6.7 billion, three paths:
First, buy BTC. The most direct path, the strongest buying pressure. Put $6.7 billion in, see how much BTC can be pulled up.
Second, large-scale repurchase of MSTR stock. If management chooses this path, it means they believe their company is seriously undervalued—mNAV at 0.7x is indeed cheap. This would also indirectly support BTC, since MSTR itself is a proxy asset for BTC.
Third, continue paying down debt and optimize capital structure. The dullest but most stable path—zero-leverage Strategy is a Strategy that can survive until the next bull market.
My personal bet: $6.7 billion won’t all go down one path, but one path will definitely lead to BTC.
Operational advice, simple and direct:
For BTC spot holders: Strategy’s “gathering strength” is not bearish. A whale holding $6.7 billion in cash with zero leverage can act at any time. Be patient and wait for Q4 catalysts.
For MSTR traders: Short term faces pressure from premium contraction—mNAV dropped from 1.4x to 0.7x, which hurts. But long term, a financially healthier MSTR should enjoy a higher valuation multiple than a “high-leverage gambler.” The discount is an opportunity, as long as you can withstand volatility.
$6.7 billion is not for bank deposits.
Trump’s bragging and Fed’s talk can’t affect BTC’s long-term trend.
But Strategy’s $6.7 billion is real money.
This money will definitely be put to use—either turned into BTC or into credit endorsement for MSTR.
Either way, it’s worth more attention than politicians’ words.
This is the real “smart money movement.”
$BTC $MSTR $xSTRC #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Gold $XAU's monthly increase of +13.5% in gold content lies outside the "rate cut expectations"—the core driver is the weaponization of the dollar (sanctions on Iran) and concerns over currency depreciation triggered by Treasury intervention. When sanctions truly squeeze Iran's supply (floating oil reserves down by 25 million barrels) and Russia is selling off gold reserves (lowest since 2020), gold's "non-sovereign currency" attribute is repriced. At $4591/oz, gold is trading not on interest rates, but on trust.
However, the risks are: dollar stabilization and rebound; easing geopolitical tensions; slowing central bank gold purchases; and a shift in Federal Reserve policy.
The long-term outlook remains optimistic #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 If even the most hesitant people start asking, "Can you still chase now?", then this rebound is probably halfway done. Are you waiting for a pullback, or for an excuse to "sell if it rises a bit more"? When I stared at the screen, the first thing I noticed wasn't BTC breaking 79,000, but that a token like OKB, which usually doesn't stand out, jumped 5.72%. This often indicates that money is starting to probe from leading assets to the edges, and risk appetite is truly rising, not just a simple index trend. BTC to 79,248, ETH to 2,514, SOL back to around 96—the numbers alone show broad gains, but the structure is even more worth pondering. BitMine bought another 32,447 ETH, totaling 5.8476 million ETH, with 87% staked. The significance of this move isn't buying itself, but that circulating tokens in the market are being continuously withdrawn, reducing the source of selling pressure. This is a slow variable for ETH pricing and can't be seen in the short term, but every time such an announcement occurs, the bears' confidence weakens. The sector data is also interesting: NFTs rose 6.92%, Layer2 rose 6.07%, RWA rose 3.91%, and AI rose 2.57%. This ranking reflects the sentiment that funds are seeking flexibility rather than seeking safe havens. NFT and L2 sectors, which previously fell hard, rebounded the strongest, indicating the market is willing to pick up oversold stocks. Risk appetite is indeed warming. But I want to pour some cold water. At this level, the core issue is not direction, but volume. BTC has been up from 73,000Sold 18.26 million shares, netting 2 billion USD.
And then?
——BTC holdings: 840,447 coins, exactly the same as last week.
Four years.
Since Strategy's first financing, not a single BTC has been bought.
This is not "not buying anymore,"
this is "not rushing to buy."
Do you understand?
Before: financing → put money into BTC → bet on direction
Now: financing → first build USD Reserve to 5.1 billion → straighten out the debt structure → completely lock down the risk of "forced coin selling"
In one sentence:
Strategy has evolved from "the largest BTC retail holder" to a "true institutional operator."
The era of mindless buy-buy-buy for four years is over.
It is waiting for an opportunity, a moment when it won't be forced to sell.
Before, people feared it buying, because after buying it was a high-leverage gambler;
now people fear it not buying, because the 5.1 billion USD bullet is already loaded.
In the short term, don't expect it to pump the market, there's a buying vacuum;
in the long term, once this ammunition pulls the trigger, it might leave everyone stunned.
$BTC $MSTR $xSTRC #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 What really interests me about the US targeting Iran this time is not the phrase "economic D-Day," but the appearance of something previously less conspicuous on the sanctions list:
digital assets.
In this round of actions by the US Treasury, digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping are grouped together.
Besenet called this "economic D-Day," and Trump even personally called several national leaders, urging them to stop dealings with Iran.
What does this mean?
In the past, when the US sanctioned a country, the core weapons were the dollar, banks, financial accounts, and the traditional trade system.
If you don't settle in dollars, I can cut off your financial channels.
But now, digital assets are singled out for sanctions, which actually indicates one thing:
The US can no longer treat cryptocurrencies as a fringe market.
Because they are truly entering the real-world financial game.
This year, the US Treasury has already taken action against Iran-related digital asset activities, specifically naming Iran's Hormuz Safe system. The US believes that such digital asset payments can help Iran evade traditional financial sanctions.
Even more interestingly, Iran has been continuously trying to use crypto assets for cross-border settlements.
This creates a very interesting logic:
The more the US tries to restrict Iran using the dollar system, the more motivated Iran is to find settlement methods outside the dollar system.#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $LAB is down nearly 48% since Aug. 1, while $BEAT fell from $6 highs under real token-unlock pressure—including a $67.8M release on Aug. 1.
But here’s the part worth watching: not every deep drawdown ends the same way.
The ZEC comparison doesn’t fully hold up either. Its breakout was backed by a real ETF catalyst, not simply “hard consolidation.”
And as for the long/short ratios? I’d treat those cautiously unless they can be independently verified.
#DailyOrbit Pinduoduo's quarterly revenue reached ¥112.4 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, below the market expectation of ¥116.35 billion; net profit attributable to the parent company was ¥27.2 billion, a 12% year-over-year decrease, and adjusted net profit was ¥28.5 billion, down 13% year-over-year.
#EarningsReportObserver
The most obvious change is that PDD, which used to grow at rates of 30% or 50%, is now entering a single-digit growth phase.
At the same time, investments have not stopped. Total operating expenses in Q2 reached ¥36.6 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, including sales and marketing expenses of ¥29.7 billion, and R&D expenses grew about 27% year-over-year. Temu also faces cost pressures from the cancellation of the US low-price parcel tax exemption policy and new parcel fees in Europe.
However, this earnings report should not be simply interpreted as "the fundamentals have collapsed."
PDD's operating profit actually increased 8% year-over-year to ¥27.8 billion, and operating cash flow rose from ¥21.6 billion to ¥25.7 billion. In other words, the core business is still profitable, but the era of high growth is clearly becoming harder to replicate.
So what I am most concerned about next is no longer how many countries Temu can enter, but: how much profit PDD can ultimately retain while competing for these markets?
At this stage of e-commerce, growth is certainly important, but if every new revenue segment requires higher subsidies, logistics, and compliance costs, the market will ultimately reprice the "quality of growth."A friend shorted SanDisk $SNDK around August 16, and by the 18th, it had risen to around 1800.➕ At that time, he was in a panic trying to buy some U from me to add to his position, almost causing a blowout. Fortunately, he held on. A couple of days ago, when the $SNDK dropped to 1400,➕ I must have taken a big bite. I saw him short and I also shorted a lot, taking a small 😃 bite. However, this narrow win also exposed the huge risks of shorting extremely volatile stocks. A few days ago, $SNDK smoothly dipped near 1400 (the lowest was about $1416), largely a concentrated liquidation of the previous frenzied short squeeze. A large number of long positions cashed out triggered this rapid pullback at the $100 level. However, the market showed strong buying interest in the $1400–$1430 range, then quickly rebounded back above $1500 (currently fluctuating near $1523), indicating that bulls and bears have resumed fierce competition at this level. Short-term range-bound oscillation ($1420–$1600): After a rapid reversal from the 1800 high and a rapid pullback from 1400, short-term indicators need to recover. In the coming days, it is unlikely that a one-sided rally will start immediately, but will instead fluctuate widely in the $1450–1580 range, digesting previous trapped and profit-taking positions. Upward resistance and downward support: The upper range of $1580–1600 has shifted from early support toIf you've been in the crypto space for the past four years, you definitely know this "person".
Since 2020, Strategy has been like an automatic coin-buying machine—purchasing 10,000 to 20,000 BTC every quarter, unfailingly, rain or shine.
The market has gotten used to its presence. Every time BTC dips a bit, everyone says, "No worries, Strategy is about to buy."
But last month, this machine shut down.
From August 17 to 23, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR stock through the ATM program, raising about $2.0065 billion net.
And then?
Not a single BTC was bought.
Holdings remained at 840,447 BTC—no increase, no decrease.
What does 840,447 BTC mean?
It accounts for over 4% of the total BTC supply. The world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder stayed still for several consecutive weeks.
Over the past four years, Strategy averaged buying 10,000 to 20,000 BTC each quarter, making it the most predictable buyer in the market.
Now, this buying pressure has hit pause.
But here’s the plot twist—
Strategy is not out of money.
It expanded its USD Reserve to $5.1 billion and established a new $1.59 billion "USD Cash" liquidity account. Combined, that's a $6.69 billion cash arsenal.
This is the largest cash reserve in Strategy's history.
They have money but aren't buying.
Why?
Because with 840,447 BTC in holdings, position management takes priority over adding more.
Strategy is now considering not "whether to buy," but "when to buy, how to buy, and how much to buy without crashing their own position."
Where this money goes will determine BTC's trajectory in the coming months.
Scenario one: Buy BTC
Throwing in $6.69 billion equals about 85,000 BTC (at roughly $80,000 each). But Strategy likely won’t go all in at once—they will buy in batches to avoid becoming the market’s counterparty.
Structural buying will resume, but the certainty of "monthly must-buy" is gone.
Scenario two: Buy back securities / pay down debt
No new buying pressure. Short-term bearish for BTC.
But the company’s finances will be healthier, reducing the risk of forced coin sales.
Don’t forget, Strategy’s average BTC cost is $75,385. At the current $80,000 price, they’ve just recently broken even. In extreme market conditions, a healthy balance sheet is their last line of defense against selling at a loss.
So my conclusion is simple:
Strategy is no longer an "automatic coin-buying machine."
It is a "strategic allocator."
In the short term, the market loses a familiar monthly buyer—this is bearish sentiment for BTC.
In the long term, a Strategy with $6.7 billion in cash, zero net leverage, and holdings accounting for 4% of total supply is BTC’s biggest institutional "billboard."
The pause is to strike better.
$BTC $xSTRC $MSTR #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $BTC $ETH $XAU
From the perspective of macro data and capital flows, this round of rally is the result of multiple positive factors resonating:
● US Treasury repo amplifies liquidity expectations: The US Treasury announced a significant expansion of the 20-year and 30-year long-term Treasury repo scale (at least doubled), pushing long-term yields significantly lower, directly enhancing the attractiveness of high-risk assets such as Bitcoin .
● Weakening dollar + rate cut expectations: The market expects the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts within the year, weakening the dollar index and further benefiting dollar-denominated crypto assets .
● Spot ETF continues to attract funds: Since January, Bitcoin spot ETFs have accumulated net inflows exceeding $12 billion, providing real spot demand support for the market .
● Policy tailwinds: Trump urged Congress to pass the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (CLARITY Act), which the market interprets as positive regulation for crypto .
● Concentrated short liquidations amplify volatility: Crowded short positions faced concentrated liquidations, combined with derivatives leverage, further amplifying the gains .
It is worth noting that ETH has strengthened simultaneously, with a weekly gain of about 30%, reflecting that the entire crypto sector is in a strong rally driven by macro liquidity .
Today's real-time overview
Today (August 25), global risk assets continue to show strength. In the crypto market, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, returning to highs since May, with ETH and other major coins strengthening simultaneously, mainly driven by the triple factors of US Treasury repo lowering long-term rates, a weakening dollar, and spot ETF fund inflows; in precious metals, gold recorded its strongest weekly gain since March 2020 last week (about 5%~7.7%), and today it is slightly up with narrow fluctuations at high levels , while silver was also strong last week but saw a slight pullback of about 1% today. Overall, the weakening dollar and expectations of loose liquidity are the common macro themes driving cross-asset gains this week. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path and changes in US Treasury yields for the sustainability of the rally.Just now, Bitcoin broke through $81,000, hitting a three-month high. The entire market is celebrating wildly, institutional funds are flowing in rapidly, and shorts are being completely crushed.
And then?
Strategy—the largest Bitcoin bull on Earth—didn't buy a single share last Monday.
That's right. From August 17 to 23, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR stock, raising a net $2 billion. But their Bitcoin holdings? 840,447 coins, not a single move.
The market's most loyal and predictable big buyer suddenly hit the pause button.
What the hell is going on?
🔴 First, let's see what the bears say—"The signal is terrible"
First, familiar faces have disappeared. Strategy used to shout "I bought again" every few weeks over the past few years. Now? Several consecutive weeks of zero accumulation. The market's most stable buying force is gone. The short-term demand side lost a steady anchor.
Second, common shares are being diluted crazily. 18.26 million new shares flooded the market. The BTC amount per MSTR share is decreasing, putting pressure on valuation premiums. Shareholders holding their tickets find their stakes diluted—who can stand that?
Third, the signaling effect is deadly. Even Strategy is "cash is king." What will other institutions think seeing this? "If the most steadfast bulls are waiting, shouldn't we wait too?" Once this herd mentality of waiting forms, it worsens market sentiment.
🟢 Now, what the bulls say—"You’re all wrong"
First, the risk of forced coin selling is almost zero. Strategy now holds $5.1 billion in USD reserves plus a newly established $1.59 billion USD cash liquidity pool. Together nearly $6.7 billion in cash reserves. Even if Bitcoin halves to $40,000, Strategy can comfortably handle debts and pay dividends—without selling a single BTC. Let me ask: what were you most afraid of before? Forced liquidation selling coins. That risk is gone now.
Second, timing ability is improving. Bitcoin rose from $70,000 to $81,000. What did Strategy do? They didn’t chase the high. Holding cash waiting for opportunities—that’s a sign of a mature investor, not FOMO-driven retail.
Third, 840,447 BTC, not a single coin less. The core bullish position remains solid, accounting for about 4% of total Bitcoin supply. Average cost $75,385. At the current $81,000 price, the unrealized gains are considerable. The base position is intact, the kingdom remains.
Fourth, future buying power could be even greater. What does $5.1 billion in ammo mean? At $60,000 per BTC, it can buy 85,000 BTC. At the current $80,000, it can still buy over 60,000 BTC. This is not a retreat; it’s gearing up for a big move.
📌 My overall judgment—don’t be swayed by emotions
Short-term bearish bias—the buying vacuum is a fact. Strategy, the "most stable big buyer," is temporarily out, so the market loses a support force in the short term.
Mid-term neutral to bullish—the financial structure is improving. $5.1 billion cash reserves + zero leverage, Strategy’s balance sheet is healthier than ever. Risk of forced coin selling? Completely eliminated.
Long-term—it depends on one thing.
Do you believe this $5.1 billion will eventually turn into BTC?
If yes—the current "not buying" is to "buy more" later. CEO Phong Le has already said: Bitcoin accumulation will continue later this year. So now is the buildup, waiting for better prices and the right timing for a heavy strike.
If no—Strategy is turning from a "Bitcoin company" back into a "software company." Then this $6.7 billion cash might just sit on the books forever, used for buybacks, debt repayment, dividends—never coming back.
I believe Saylor. The most correct thing this man has done in his life is going all in on Bitcoin. Will he stop now? I don’t believe it.
Not chasing $81,000 is to buy more at $60,000.
The current "not buying" is precisely the strongest signal of "wanting to buy."
$BTC $MSTR $xSTRC #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #Why did oil prices fall after the US launched economic isolation against Iran? The market begins to doubt whether "economic suffocation" can be enforced
Last night, the US officially expanded sanctions on Iran, targeting nearly 60 individuals, entities, and vessels, while strengthening secondary sanctions threats: other countries and companies continuing to trade with Iran may face exclusion from the US financial system. Iran clearly stated today that it will retaliate.
But the market reaction is very interesting. $BZ already dropped more than 2% yesterday and only slightly rebounded to around $92/barrel today. Reuters pointed out that the new measures have not yet introduced stronger enforcement methods, so the crude oil market reaction is limited.
Why it matters: A few days ago, the market's biggest fear was that the US would really cut off Iranian oil buyers. Now that the policy is implemented but oil prices have not surged again, that itself is information.
If Brent continues to stay around $90, it will actually be positive for US inflation, US debt, and tech stocks, and will also ease the "oil price → inflation → interest rate hike" pressure faced by $BTC, which can be considered a small positive.