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Bitcoin just broke through $80,000, and the whole market is celebrating.
Strategy, the largest Bitcoin whale on Earth, didn’t move a muscle last week.
From August 17 to 23, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR stock through the ATM program, raising $2 billion net.
And then? Not a single BTC was bought.
Holdings stayed at 840,447 coins, completely unchanged.
But that’s not the point. The point is—
They now hold $6.7 billion in cash.
$5.1 billion in USD Reserve, plus $1.59 billion newly established USD Cash.
$6.7 billion sitting in the account. That’s equivalent to 0.56% of Bitcoin’s total market cap, and about one-third of the daily trading volume.
This is not pocket change; this is a nuclear bomb.
Strategy’s past playbook was simple: raise funds → buy BTC → raise funds again → buy more BTC.
But this time it’s different.
After getting $2 billion, $136 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares, $300 million replenished the USD Reserve, and the rest was all put into the newly established USD Cash account.
The CEO publicly said: “As of August 23, Strategy holds about 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with net leverage at 0%.”
Net leverage at 0%.
A company that once bought coins on borrowed money now says it’s zero-leverage.
It’s like the gambler you know who always goes all-in suddenly telling you he’s now holding only cash, no chips.
Do you believe it?
I don’t.
This is not retreat; this is gathering strength.
Next, watch three signal lights:
Signal One (short term, 1-2 weeks): What management says.
The CEO has already hinted—“plans to continue increasing Bitcoin holdings before year-end.”
But words are words, money is money.
In the coming weeks, if SEC filings explicitly state “continue to increase BTC holdings,” MSTR’s premium will quickly recover.
Currently, MSTR’s mNAV has dropped from a high of 1.4x at the start of the year to about 0.7x—meaning the stock price is cheaper than the value of the Bitcoin it holds.
This means the market is selling this “Bitcoin proxy” at a discount.
Any signal of accumulation will quickly narrow this discount.
Signal Two (mid term, Q4): When the price hits a range, will they act?
If BTC pulls back to a range—say $55k-$58k—watch if Strategy makes a move.
Note, their average holding cost is $75,385. BTC is now above $80k, so they have an unrealized gain of about $3.4 billion.
But what if it falls back?
If Strategy acts in the $55k-$58k range, it means they recognize that as the “value zone.”
This will be the strongest psychological support in the market—if even the biggest whale is buying at this level, what is there to fear?
Signal Three (long term): Where will the money go?
$6.7 billion, three paths:
First, buy BTC. The most direct path, the strongest buying pressure. Put $6.7 billion in, see how much BTC can be pulled up.
Second, large-scale repurchase of MSTR stock. If management chooses this path, it means they believe their company is seriously undervalued—mNAV at 0.7x is indeed cheap. This would also indirectly support BTC, since MSTR itself is a proxy asset for BTC.
Third, continue paying down debt and optimize capital structure. The dullest but most stable path—zero-leverage Strategy is a Strategy that can survive until the next bull market.
My personal bet: $6.7 billion won’t all go down one path, but one path will definitely lead to BTC.
Operational advice, simple and direct:
For BTC spot holders: Strategy’s “gathering strength” is not bearish. A whale holding $6.7 billion in cash with zero leverage can act at any time. Be patient and wait for Q4 catalysts.
For MSTR traders: Short term faces pressure from premium contraction—mNAV dropped from 1.4x to 0.7x, which hurts. But long term, a financially healthier MSTR should enjoy a higher valuation multiple than a “high-leverage gambler.” The discount is an opportunity, as long as you can withstand volatility.
$6.7 billion is not for bank deposits.
Trump’s bragging and Fed’s talk can’t affect BTC’s long-term trend.
But Strategy’s $6.7 billion is real money.
This money will definitely be put to use—either turned into BTC or into credit endorsement for MSTR.
Either way, it’s worth more attention than politicians’ words.
This is the real “smart money movement.”
$BTC $MSTR $xSTRC #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Gold $XAU's monthly increase of +13.5% in gold content lies outside the "rate cut expectations"—the core driver is the weaponization of the dollar (sanctions on Iran) and concerns over currency depreciation triggered by Treasury intervention. When sanctions truly squeeze Iran's supply (floating oil reserves down by 25 million barrels) and Russia is selling off gold reserves (lowest since 2020), gold's "non-sovereign currency" attribute is repriced. At $4591/oz, gold is trading not on interest rates, but on trust.
However, the risks are: dollar stabilization and rebound; easing geopolitical tensions; slowing central bank gold purchases; and a shift in Federal Reserve policy.
The long-term outlook remains optimistic #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 If even the most hesitant people start asking, "Can you still chase now?", then this rebound is probably halfway done. Are you waiting for a pullback, or for an excuse to "sell if it rises a bit more"? When I stared at the screen, the first thing I noticed wasn't BTC breaking 79,000, but that a token like OKB, which usually doesn't stand out, jumped 5.72%. This often indicates that money is starting to probe from leading assets to the edges, and risk appetite is truly rising, not just a simple index trend. BTC to 79,248, ETH to 2,514, SOL back to around 96—the numbers alone show broad gains, but the structure is even more worth pondering. BitMine bought another 32,447 ETH, totaling 5.8476 million ETH, with 87% staked. The significance of this move isn't buying itself, but that circulating tokens in the market are being continuously withdrawn, reducing the source of selling pressure. This is a slow variable for ETH pricing and can't be seen in the short term, but every time such an announcement occurs, the bears' confidence weakens. The sector data is also interesting: NFTs rose 6.92%, Layer2 rose 6.07%, RWA rose 3.91%, and AI rose 2.57%. This ranking reflects the sentiment that funds are seeking flexibility rather than seeking safe havens. NFT and L2 sectors, which previously fell hard, rebounded the strongest, indicating the market is willing to pick up oversold stocks. Risk appetite is indeed warming. But I want to pour some cold water. At this level, the core issue is not direction, but volume. BTC has been up from 73,000Sold 18.26 million shares, netting 2 billion USD.
And then?
——BTC holdings: 840,447 coins, exactly the same as last week.
Four years.
Since Strategy's first financing, not a single BTC has been bought.
This is not "not buying anymore,"
this is "not rushing to buy."
Do you understand?
Before: financing → put money into BTC → bet on direction
Now: financing → first build USD Reserve to 5.1 billion → straighten out the debt structure → completely lock down the risk of "forced coin selling"
In one sentence:
Strategy has evolved from "the largest BTC retail holder" to a "true institutional operator."
The era of mindless buy-buy-buy for four years is over.
It is waiting for an opportunity, a moment when it won't be forced to sell.
Before, people feared it buying, because after buying it was a high-leverage gambler;
now people fear it not buying, because the 5.1 billion USD bullet is already loaded.
In the short term, don't expect it to pump the market, there's a buying vacuum;
in the long term, once this ammunition pulls the trigger, it might leave everyone stunned.
$BTC $MSTR $xSTRC #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 What really interests me about the US targeting Iran this time is not the phrase "economic D-Day," but the appearance of something previously less conspicuous on the sanctions list:
digital assets.
In this round of actions by the US Treasury, digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping are grouped together.
Besenet called this "economic D-Day," and Trump even personally called several national leaders, urging them to stop dealings with Iran.
What does this mean?
In the past, when the US sanctioned a country, the core weapons were the dollar, banks, financial accounts, and the traditional trade system.
If you don't settle in dollars, I can cut off your financial channels.
But now, digital assets are singled out for sanctions, which actually indicates one thing:
The US can no longer treat cryptocurrencies as a fringe market.
Because they are truly entering the real-world financial game.
This year, the US Treasury has already taken action against Iran-related digital asset activities, specifically naming Iran's Hormuz Safe system. The US believes that such digital asset payments can help Iran evade traditional financial sanctions.
Even more interestingly, Iran has been continuously trying to use crypto assets for cross-border settlements.
This creates a very interesting logic:
The more the US tries to restrict Iran using the dollar system, the more motivated Iran is to find settlement methods outside the dollar system.#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $LAB is down nearly 48% since Aug. 1, while $BEAT fell from $6 highs under real token-unlock pressure—including a $67.8M release on Aug. 1.
But here’s the part worth watching: not every deep drawdown ends the same way.
The ZEC comparison doesn’t fully hold up either. Its breakout was backed by a real ETF catalyst, not simply “hard consolidation.”
And as for the long/short ratios? I’d treat those cautiously unless they can be independently verified.
#DailyOrbit Pinduoduo's quarterly revenue reached ¥112.4 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, below the market expectation of ¥116.35 billion; net profit attributable to the parent company was ¥27.2 billion, a 12% year-over-year decrease, and adjusted net profit was ¥28.5 billion, down 13% year-over-year.
#EarningsReportObserver
The most obvious change is that PDD, which used to grow at rates of 30% or 50%, is now entering a single-digit growth phase.
At the same time, investments have not stopped. Total operating expenses in Q2 reached ¥36.6 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, including sales and marketing expenses of ¥29.7 billion, and R&D expenses grew about 27% year-over-year. Temu also faces cost pressures from the cancellation of the US low-price parcel tax exemption policy and new parcel fees in Europe.
However, this earnings report should not be simply interpreted as "the fundamentals have collapsed."
PDD's operating profit actually increased 8% year-over-year to ¥27.8 billion, and operating cash flow rose from ¥21.6 billion to ¥25.7 billion. In other words, the core business is still profitable, but the era of high growth is clearly becoming harder to replicate.
So what I am most concerned about next is no longer how many countries Temu can enter, but: how much profit PDD can ultimately retain while competing for these markets?
At this stage of e-commerce, growth is certainly important, but if every new revenue segment requires higher subsidies, logistics, and compliance costs, the market will ultimately reprice the "quality of growth."A friend shorted SanDisk $SNDK around August 16, and by the 18th, it had risen to around 1800.➕ At that time, he was in a panic trying to buy some U from me to add to his position, almost causing a blowout. Fortunately, he held on. A couple of days ago, when the $SNDK dropped to 1400,➕ I must have taken a big bite. I saw him short and I also shorted a lot, taking a small 😃 bite. However, this narrow win also exposed the huge risks of shorting extremely volatile stocks. A few days ago, $SNDK smoothly dipped near 1400 (the lowest was about $1416), largely a concentrated liquidation of the previous frenzied short squeeze. A large number of long positions cashed out triggered this rapid pullback at the $100 level. However, the market showed strong buying interest in the $1400–$1430 range, then quickly rebounded back above $1500 (currently fluctuating near $1523), indicating that bulls and bears have resumed fierce competition at this level. Short-term range-bound oscillation ($1420–$1600): After a rapid reversal from the 1800 high and a rapid pullback from 1400, short-term indicators need to recover. In the coming days, it is unlikely that a one-sided rally will start immediately, but will instead fluctuate widely in the $1450–1580 range, digesting previous trapped and profit-taking positions. Upward resistance and downward support: The upper range of $1580–1600 has shifted from early support toIf you've been in the crypto space for the past four years, you definitely know this "person".
Since 2020, Strategy has been like an automatic coin-buying machine—purchasing 10,000 to 20,000 BTC every quarter, unfailingly, rain or shine.
The market has gotten used to its presence. Every time BTC dips a bit, everyone says, "No worries, Strategy is about to buy."
But last month, this machine shut down.
From August 17 to 23, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR stock through the ATM program, raising about $2.0065 billion net.
And then?
Not a single BTC was bought.
Holdings remained at 840,447 BTC—no increase, no decrease.
What does 840,447 BTC mean?
It accounts for over 4% of the total BTC supply. The world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder stayed still for several consecutive weeks.
Over the past four years, Strategy averaged buying 10,000 to 20,000 BTC each quarter, making it the most predictable buyer in the market.
Now, this buying pressure has hit pause.
But here’s the plot twist—
Strategy is not out of money.
It expanded its USD Reserve to $5.1 billion and established a new $1.59 billion "USD Cash" liquidity account. Combined, that's a $6.69 billion cash arsenal.
This is the largest cash reserve in Strategy's history.
They have money but aren't buying.
Why?
Because with 840,447 BTC in holdings, position management takes priority over adding more.
Strategy is now considering not "whether to buy," but "when to buy, how to buy, and how much to buy without crashing their own position."
Where this money goes will determine BTC's trajectory in the coming months.
Scenario one: Buy BTC
Throwing in $6.69 billion equals about 85,000 BTC (at roughly $80,000 each). But Strategy likely won’t go all in at once—they will buy in batches to avoid becoming the market’s counterparty.
Structural buying will resume, but the certainty of "monthly must-buy" is gone.
Scenario two: Buy back securities / pay down debt
No new buying pressure. Short-term bearish for BTC.
But the company’s finances will be healthier, reducing the risk of forced coin sales.
Don’t forget, Strategy’s average BTC cost is $75,385. At the current $80,000 price, they’ve just recently broken even. In extreme market conditions, a healthy balance sheet is their last line of defense against selling at a loss.
So my conclusion is simple:
Strategy is no longer an "automatic coin-buying machine."
It is a "strategic allocator."
In the short term, the market loses a familiar monthly buyer—this is bearish sentiment for BTC.
In the long term, a Strategy with $6.7 billion in cash, zero net leverage, and holdings accounting for 4% of total supply is BTC’s biggest institutional "billboard."
The pause is to strike better.
$BTC $xSTRC $MSTR #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $BTC $ETH $XAU
From the perspective of macro data and capital flows, this round of rally is the result of multiple positive factors resonating:
● US Treasury repo amplifies liquidity expectations: The US Treasury announced a significant expansion of the 20-year and 30-year long-term Treasury repo scale (at least doubled), pushing long-term yields significantly lower, directly enhancing the attractiveness of high-risk assets such as Bitcoin .
● Weakening dollar + rate cut expectations: The market expects the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts within the year, weakening the dollar index and further benefiting dollar-denominated crypto assets .
● Spot ETF continues to attract funds: Since January, Bitcoin spot ETFs have accumulated net inflows exceeding $12 billion, providing real spot demand support for the market .
● Policy tailwinds: Trump urged Congress to pass the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (CLARITY Act), which the market interprets as positive regulation for crypto .
● Concentrated short liquidations amplify volatility: Crowded short positions faced concentrated liquidations, combined with derivatives leverage, further amplifying the gains .
It is worth noting that ETH has strengthened simultaneously, with a weekly gain of about 30%, reflecting that the entire crypto sector is in a strong rally driven by macro liquidity .
Today's real-time overview
Today (August 25), global risk assets continue to show strength. In the crypto market, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, returning to highs since May, with ETH and other major coins strengthening simultaneously, mainly driven by the triple factors of US Treasury repo lowering long-term rates, a weakening dollar, and spot ETF fund inflows; in precious metals, gold recorded its strongest weekly gain since March 2020 last week (about 5%~7.7%), and today it is slightly up with narrow fluctuations at high levels , while silver was also strong last week but saw a slight pullback of about 1% today. Overall, the weakening dollar and expectations of loose liquidity are the common macro themes driving cross-asset gains this week. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path and changes in US Treasury yields for the sustainability of the rally.Just now, Bitcoin broke through $81,000, hitting a three-month high. The entire market is celebrating wildly, institutional funds are flowing in rapidly, and shorts are being completely crushed.
And then?
Strategy—the largest Bitcoin bull on Earth—didn't buy a single share last Monday.
That's right. From August 17 to 23, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR stock, raising a net $2 billion. But their Bitcoin holdings? 840,447 coins, not a single move.
The market's most loyal and predictable big buyer suddenly hit the pause button.
What the hell is going on?
🔴 First, let's see what the bears say—"The signal is terrible"
First, familiar faces have disappeared. Strategy used to shout "I bought again" every few weeks over the past few years. Now? Several consecutive weeks of zero accumulation. The market's most stable buying force is gone. The short-term demand side lost a steady anchor.
Second, common shares are being diluted crazily. 18.26 million new shares flooded the market. The BTC amount per MSTR share is decreasing, putting pressure on valuation premiums. Shareholders holding their tickets find their stakes diluted—who can stand that?
Third, the signaling effect is deadly. Even Strategy is "cash is king." What will other institutions think seeing this? "If the most steadfast bulls are waiting, shouldn't we wait too?" Once this herd mentality of waiting forms, it worsens market sentiment.
🟢 Now, what the bulls say—"You’re all wrong"
First, the risk of forced coin selling is almost zero. Strategy now holds $5.1 billion in USD reserves plus a newly established $1.59 billion USD cash liquidity pool. Together nearly $6.7 billion in cash reserves. Even if Bitcoin halves to $40,000, Strategy can comfortably handle debts and pay dividends—without selling a single BTC. Let me ask: what were you most afraid of before? Forced liquidation selling coins. That risk is gone now.
Second, timing ability is improving. Bitcoin rose from $70,000 to $81,000. What did Strategy do? They didn’t chase the high. Holding cash waiting for opportunities—that’s a sign of a mature investor, not FOMO-driven retail.
Third, 840,447 BTC, not a single coin less. The core bullish position remains solid, accounting for about 4% of total Bitcoin supply. Average cost $75,385. At the current $81,000 price, the unrealized gains are considerable. The base position is intact, the kingdom remains.
Fourth, future buying power could be even greater. What does $5.1 billion in ammo mean? At $60,000 per BTC, it can buy 85,000 BTC. At the current $80,000, it can still buy over 60,000 BTC. This is not a retreat; it’s gearing up for a big move.
📌 My overall judgment—don’t be swayed by emotions
Short-term bearish bias—the buying vacuum is a fact. Strategy, the "most stable big buyer," is temporarily out, so the market loses a support force in the short term.
Mid-term neutral to bullish—the financial structure is improving. $5.1 billion cash reserves + zero leverage, Strategy’s balance sheet is healthier than ever. Risk of forced coin selling? Completely eliminated.
Long-term—it depends on one thing.
Do you believe this $5.1 billion will eventually turn into BTC?
If yes—the current "not buying" is to "buy more" later. CEO Phong Le has already said: Bitcoin accumulation will continue later this year. So now is the buildup, waiting for better prices and the right timing for a heavy strike.
If no—Strategy is turning from a "Bitcoin company" back into a "software company." Then this $6.7 billion cash might just sit on the books forever, used for buybacks, debt repayment, dividends—never coming back.
I believe Saylor. The most correct thing this man has done in his life is going all in on Bitcoin. Will he stop now? I don’t believe it.
Not chasing $81,000 is to buy more at $60,000.
The current "not buying" is precisely the strongest signal of "wanting to buy."
$BTC $MSTR $xSTRC #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #Why did oil prices fall after the US launched economic isolation against Iran? The market begins to doubt whether "economic suffocation" can be enforced
Last night, the US officially expanded sanctions on Iran, targeting nearly 60 individuals, entities, and vessels, while strengthening secondary sanctions threats: other countries and companies continuing to trade with Iran may face exclusion from the US financial system. Iran clearly stated today that it will retaliate.
But the market reaction is very interesting. $BZ already dropped more than 2% yesterday and only slightly rebounded to around $92/barrel today. Reuters pointed out that the new measures have not yet introduced stronger enforcement methods, so the crude oil market reaction is limited.
Why it matters: A few days ago, the market's biggest fear was that the US would really cut off Iranian oil buyers. Now that the policy is implemented but oil prices have not surged again, that itself is information.
If Brent continues to stay around $90, it will actually be positive for US inflation, US debt, and tech stocks, and will also ease the "oil price → inflation → interest rate hike" pressure faced by $BTC, which can be considered a small positive.Capital Markets and Stock Price Performance
• Earnings Beat Expectations but Valuation Retraces: Although SanDisk reported record-high revenue and gross margin for fiscal Q4 2026 (quarterly revenue reached $8.965 billion, gross margin at 84.6%), the stock price has significantly pulled back from its June 2026 peak (around $2350) due to market concerns about the industry cycle peaking, currently fluctuating near $1500.
• Increasing Institutional Divergence: Leading investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America remain optimistic about its pricing power in AI inference storage and long-term NBM agreements, maintaining positive ratings; however, short-term funds are causing market volatility due to profit-taking and fears of a cyclical downturn. #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 Centralized exchanges (CEX) are racing to establish a presence in Europe and seek compliance licenses, driven primarily by the institutional benefits brought by the formal implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). This is also a strategic necessity to cope with global regulatory fragmentation and to compete for incremental markets in traditional finance. The main driving factors are concentrated in the following six dimensions: 1. Core benefit: EU "Single Passport" mechanism One license for all of Europe: Before MiCA's implementation, regulatory policies across the EU's 27 member states were highly fragmented (e.g., France's AMF, Germany's BaFin, Italy's OAM), requiring exchanges to establish entities and apply for approvals country by country, resulting in high compliance costs. Economies of scale: Under the MiCA framework, once an exchange obtains a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) license in any member state, it can use the "passport mechanism" to directly offer services to the unified large market of nearly 450 million people across the entire European Union and the European Economic Area (EEA). 2. Regulatory certainty: Avoiding legal black swans of "enforcement replacing regulation" Clear and predictable rules: Compared to some jurisdictions that have long adopted litigation enforcement and ambiguous regulatory boundaries, MiCA provides explicit provisions for crypto-asset categories (such as utility tokens, asset-referenced tokens (ART), electronic money tokens (EMT)) as well as custody, trading, and listing rules for the first time. Compliance safe harbor: Having clear compliance expectations can significantly reduce the geopolitical regulatory risks exchanges face, such as massive litigation fines or sudden business shutdowns. 3. Opening fiat currency channels $BTC $ETH have been rising continuously for a full week; can the market continue to climb?
BTC has firmly reclaimed the 80,000 mark, marking the strongest weekly gain in three years. Within just ten minutes, $225 million worth of short positions were liquidated, delivering a harsh shakeout to the bears this round.
This major rally was significantly boosted by external news. The U.S. Treasury expanded its Treasury buyback program, releasing liquidity into the market; coupled with new expectations around crypto regulatory policies, multiple positive factors resonated together. Additionally, ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows totaling nearly $2 billion, directly driving BTC from 69,000 all the way up to the current highs.
I’m not reviewing this rally after the fact—I shared my analysis and entry points in advance. BTC surged to 81,000, and Ethereum held above 2,500. The price’s ability to withstand volatility at these highs also indicates that the main bullish capital has not yet exited on a large scale. $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 The mainstream short squeeze is retreating, but the money hasn't left; it's moving to second-tier leaders. Today, $SOL is up 8.5% in one day, clearly outperforming BTC and ETH—this is a typical sector rotation: the big coins rally first, and when they can't push further, funds look for more elastic catch-up targets. Rotation itself signals a continuation of the market, but it's actually the most dangerous time for those chasing the trade: when you see it surging the most and jump in, that's often when this batch of funds is ready to find the next bag holder. My approach is to treat rotation only as a sentiment thermometer, not as a buy signal. If I really want to participate in the second tier, I wait for a pullback, volume contraction, and a clear stop-loss level, rather than chasing the intraday biggest gain line. Are you chasing the trend, or someone else's excitement? Bitcoin can rally on institutional demand without every institution buying BTC directly.
ETF inflows are surging while Strategy just raised $2B without adding a single BTC.
That changes the interesting question.
The bigger institutional shift may not be who is buying Bitcoin.
It may be how institutions are choosing to gain exposure to it.#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls #StrategyBuildsCash I think today's Strategy announcements were one of the most bullish in recent times for the market.
They made no contribution to last week's price action
They further increased their cash reserves to $5b to accomodate convertible debt and preferred stock repurchase/ dividends (by selling MSTR ofcourse).
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls #StrategyBuildsCash Some people see $BTC break through 80,000 and easily assume a bull market is coming, then rush in recklessly to go long. I think this is inappropriate. If we only look at the price and candlestick charts to analyze future trends, it's easy to be misled into the wrong direction. We need to look not only at the price and candlesticks, but also at various data points. Only by analyzing everything comprehensively can we see the future direction clearly amid the market fog. I believe a major market crash is imminent. —————————————————— Let's look at $BTC contract data. We can see that when $BTC's price rises, its contract open interest and long-short ratio fall simultaneously. This means many bulls take profits at this stage. Let's look at the data for a longer period. It can be seen that during this round of upward cycles, its contract open interest and long-short ratio have sharply decreased. It's hard not to believe that this round of rally is meant to encourage the bulls to sell off. Given the current situation, it's really hard for me to go long. —————————————————— I believe the market will most likely continue to decline. However, we can't rule out unexpected possibilities. If the market really surges forward and then blows up my short positions, I will immediately consider turning around and going long. But I don't believe it, and I don't think my view of the market is wrong. I've always firmly believed one thing: liquidity is the foundation of market gains. An increase without liquidity is like water without a source, like duckweed without roots.#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
This news is quite interesting. On Monday, the US officially launched an "economic isolation operation" against Iran, yet international oil prices actually dropped by more than 2%. Sanctioning Iran but oil prices fell—this is indeed counterintuitive.
The US has taken a hard line this time.
The sanctions have expanded to five major areas: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. Nearly 60 Iranian-related entities and individuals have been blacklisted. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen directly stated the goal is to implement "zero loopholes," aiming to cut off every economic lifeline of Iran. Any entity laundering money for Iran will be removed from the dollar system.
But the market simply isn’t buying it.
The reason is very practical: whether the sanctions can truly block Iran’s oil exports depends on how China responds. China buys 80%-90% of Iran’s exported crude oil. This time, the US did not directly sanction China’s major banks and even gave countries a "correction period." In other words, it’s all bark and no bite.
Iran is not backing down either; an advisor to the Supreme Leader directly stated that the response will be "more resolute than ever." The Iranian rial has already collapsed to a historic low of 2,039,000 rials per US dollar.
My view is that as long as oil prices don’t really surge, inflation expectations won’t rise, and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates will actually lessen. For risk assets, this might not be a bad thing. Short-term volatility is inevitable, but the overall direction remains unchanged. Just manage your positions well.
This is a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
Sanctions intensify, yet oil prices fall? This itself is the most alarming signal.
The US's "economic isolation operation" against Iran is fierce—digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping are all included in secondary sanctions, and Bassent even vowed "zero leakage" enforcement. The Iranian rial has dropped to a new low of 2,039,000 to 1 USD, and the geopolitical conflict is visibly escalating.
But oil prices did not rise; instead, they fell.
Why? Because the market is calculating: will third countries cooperate? No matter how loudly the US shouts, if countries like China, Russia, and Turkey do not comply, Iranian crude can still be rerouted. Over the past two years, Iranian crude exports have operated through "gray channels," and the market is still watching whether these sanctions can truly reduce flow.
For BTC, this is actually a more complex story.
Sanction escalation usually benefits BTC—non-sovereign assets, censorship resistance, geopolitical safe haven, the logic is straightforward. But this time, the US also included digital assets in secondary sanctions, meaning compliance pressure will increase, and exchanges may tighten risk controls on addresses related to Iran. On one side, "hedging demand" pushes up; on the other, "liquidity tightening + compliance tightening" suppresses. BTC is being repriced in this situation, not simply rising.
So my view is simple: don’t treat sanctions as a simple "positive" to speculate on. The oil price drop shows the market hasn’t fully believed these sanctions will truly take effect. Gold has safe-haven support but is also waiting for signals, while BTC is caught in a squeeze of "benefiting from the non-sovereign narrative yet constrained by USD liquidity and compliance pressure."
My move? Don’t chase. Wait for oil prices to truly start reacting, wait for third countries’ stance to be clear, wait for the market to price in the actual effect of sanctions, then act. Jumping in now is betting on "news," not trading "facts."
$CL $BZ Tuesday, 2026.08.25
Yesterday, the US stock market declined, but Bitcoin and gold remained strong and rose. Bitcoin has already broken through the $80,000 mark today.
On August 24, Bitcoin ETF net inflows were $337 million. Ethereum ETF net inflows were $115 million.
The recent rise in Bitcoin and other inflation-resistant assets like gold is closely related to the current US Treasury and investment trading environment. With US debt and interest expenses continuously increasing, they need to maintain the financing capacity of the Treasury market; if long-term Treasury bonds lack buyers and yields continue to rise, policymakers may stabilize the market by expanding repurchases or using other tools. Once these operations ultimately increase dollar liquidity, Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, will become a potential beneficiary.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin surged again today, breaking through the $80,000 mark. However, the volume shrank during this rise, indicating that the bulls are clearly weakening at this level. Therefore, there is a probability that this level cannot form an effective breakthrough or hold steady. The bears are also unlikely to reignite easily, as what needed to be burned has already been burned. Additionally, some bulls targeting $80,000+ and profit-taking sales make it difficult to achieve a quick breakthrough at this level. A healthier approach would be to pull back, accumulate strength, and then surge higher. If it directly jumps to $85,000+, it is very likely to become an accelerated topping move.
The greed index shifted from panic to extreme greed in just five days. Amid the noisy crowd, it is important to maintain a calm and rational mind.
Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index: 83 (Extreme Greed) Everyone is shouting "Above 80k to see 100k," but I feel this wave will be slapped down by Walsh.
The group asked whether Walsh is hawkish or dovish—my answer is straightforward: he will be more hawkish than the market imagines, and he won’t give any "clear path" at all. Waiting for a framework? He’s unlikely to give you one.
Look at the current atmosphere: BTC pushed from 66k all the way to 80k without a decent pullback, shorts were liquidated for 7.2 billion, and the market is full of floating profits on longs. Retail is rushing in, KOLs are shouting "devaluation trade restarts," ETF net inflows are 1.9 billion—the whole market is betting Walsh will dovetail, betting he can’t withstand economic pressure, betting he will pivot to rate cuts before year-end.
But who is Walsh? He’s the one who cut forward guidance as soon as he took office, refusing to let the market get "comfortable." The 30-year Treasury yield has already surged above 5.3%, core service inflation is still sticky, does he dare give a clear dovish signal now? If he dares, long bonds will crash right before your eyes. The only thing he can do is "verbal hawkishness"—emphasize inflation risks, keep all options open, then muddle through with ambiguity.
Here’s the problem: the market fears "ambiguity" more than hawkishness. You say hawkish, BTC falls; you say dovish, BTC rises. But if you play Tai Chi, the market prices uncertainty as "negative"—because all the positives are priced in, any "certainty" below expectations will trigger profit-taking cascades.
So my move is completely opposite to most people—I don’t wait for the speech, I short in advance.
Around 80k, I will lightly short with a stop loss at 83k. Why not wait? Because when the speech comes out, it will either smash through directly or spike up and down to hit your stop loss before moving in a direction. If you chase then, it’s already half a beat too late. I’d rather risk a small stop loss to bet on the high-probability event that "market expectations are too full, Walsh won’t deliver."
You might say: "What if he really dovetails? BTC surges to 90k?"—then I accept the loss, I respect that. But I don’t believe a chairman who can’t even clarify his own framework can support this market that has been overextended from 66k all the way up. Too many people are on board, the vehicle is too heavy, and if Walsh just tightens the cap a little, this vehicle will flip on its own.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a die-hard bear. I just think when consensus expectations are strongest, that’s often when reversals are easiest. This Jackson Hole, I’m not betting on direction, I’m betting on "expectation divergence"—and I believe the direction of that divergence is downward.
This is my personal trading idea, not advice. Anyway, my stop loss is already set.
$BTC #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 The area where BTC upside and altcoin downward are divided—indicators are already pointing to the direction. On the surface, Bitcoin appears strong holding around the $77,000 range, but why doesn't the leverage structure of the derivatives market point in the same direction? Bitcoin continues to consolidate sideways around $77,000, while Ethereum is repeatedly retesting the range between $2,400 and $2,500. Looking at prices alone, the market is maintaining a relatively stable pattern. However, the key turning point in this cycle is not the mainnet price, but the rearrangement of the derivatives positions beneath it. Currently, funding fees and basis in the futures market are diverging from spot buying, suggesting that participants are accumulating hedge positions within the range rather than being confident in an upward trend. - Although the bullish momentum in Bitcoin spot is maintaining, the cost of long positions in the futures market has not risen proportionally. This means demand is for maintaining existing positions rather than new chase buying. - Ethereum A man who grew from five thousand dollars to fifteen million dollars tells you, "The person who loses money is actually the one who wants to lose it themselves." After hearing this, your blood boils, and you feel like someone has finally spoken the truth. But have you ever thought: the person who said this is exactly the one who won? Today, I'm going to give you a tool—not to teach you how to trade like Sekota, but to teach you how to identify a trading creed—whether it's universal truth, or if a survivor's luck is packaged as wisdom. And I'll dig all the way to where my own knife is right where I can strike my own hand. 1. The Underlying Truth of Trading: Resisting Your Nature First, let's be clear: if you have money you can't afford to lose and expect to turn things around through trading in three months, close it now. This content will make you more anxious, not more profitable. Step away from the table and stabilize your cash flow—this isn't just politeness—it's about applying boundaries. Eddie Sekota, born in 1946, graduated from MIT in electrical engineering. In the era before personal computers existed, he used punched cards and mainframes to write the earliest commercial trading systems that could be backtested and automatically send signals. Jack Schwager wrote him into 'The Financial Genius,' and he became a legend in one battle. The widest number is: a customer's account of about $5,000 grows to over $15 million over a decade. His most famous quote was his answer when asked about the "key elements of a good trade": First, cut losses; Second, cut losses; Third, cut losses. Most people's first reaction is: Oh, stop losses, discipline, got it. But have you ever thought: a logic so precise it can be writtenAfter the last round of rapid rises, BTC and ETH have entered a phase of high-level competition. In the coming days, the market's direction may not only be determined by candlesticks, but by several important events coming one after another. 1. Wednesday: GDP and PCE Reprice Interest Rate Expectations The US will release Q2 GDP revisions and July personal income expenditure data, with PCE inflation being particularly noteworthy. Currently, the market is still divided on the Fed's September policy, so this data could easily affect the dollar and US Treasury yields. If PCE continues to cool, market expectations for the Fed's accommodative stance may strengthen, which is positive for risk assets like BTC; If inflation rises again, caution should be taken against reversals in interest rate expectations leading to pullbacks from highs. 2. NVIDIA earnings report: Can AI trading continue? On the same day, there was also an NVIDIA earnings report. NVIDIA has long since influenced more than just one stock; it largely represents the overall temperature of AI trading and risk appetite in US stocks. The problem is, market expectations are already very high. Therefore, what really matters is not "whether the performance is good," but whether it can continue to exceed market expectations. If AI demand and future guidance remain strong, Nasdaq risk appetite may be supported and pass on to BTC and ETH; If performance is good but below expectations, be cautious of tech stocks taking profits. 3. Jackson Hole: The Real Highlight This Week The market's focus in the latter half of the week will shift to the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting. Compared to single economic data, the market is more concerned about the Federal ReserveIn the early Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin once approached the $80,000 mark, reaching a high of $79,891, the first time it has hit this level since May.
As of the morning, BTC was priced at $78,935, up 1.61% in 24 hours, with a cumulative increase of over 22% in the past week.
The total market capitalization of the crypto market increased by $474 billion in one week.
The driving force behind this rally is threefold. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen announced doubling the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks from $2 billion each time to $4 billion, which temporarily lowered long-term bond yields and weakened the dollar. The effect lasted less than a day—30-year yields subsequently returned to high levels, remaining basically flat for the week. Yellen later admitted the market "overreacted a bit." But the market had already set the direction: the dollar fell nearly 1% that week, gold broke through $4,600, and Bitcoin rose more than 25% in the week. $BTC As the price surged from $62,000 to nearly $80,000, the situation for miners is also changing.
The hash price, which measures the expected revenue per unit of computing power, rose 20.4% in four days, increasing from $31.80 per PH/s on August 18 to $38.29.
Bitcoin's total network hashrate is currently about 922 EH/s, approaching the critical threshold of 1 exahash per second.
However, mining difficulty is still decreasing, having been adjusted down by 1.31% to 1.2581 million billion on August 23, only 0.7% above the 2026 low. Since the beginning of the year, mining difficulty has been reduced ten times, with about 150 EH/s of computing power still offline. Miners are increasing, but the transformation continues.
Regulatory efforts are also advancing. After meeting with crypto industry executives at the White House, Trump publicly urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. The Treasury repurchase by Basent and the Trump administration's easing of crypto regulations are seen as coordinated actions under the same economic goal—to increase short-term U.S. Treasury demand by expanding the stablecoin market, alleviating fiscal pressure after the national debt surpassed $40 trillion. $BTC Against the backdrop of the national debt surpassing $40 trillion and annual interest payments approaching $1.2 trillion, stablecoins are seen as a potential source of short-term demand for U.S. Treasury bonds.
The U.S. Treasury Department also announced an expansion of secondary sanctions on Iran, including cryptocurrencies and digital assets within the scope of sanctions.
This could both drive some funds into the crypto market to evade sanctions and signal rising compliance pressure.
The $80,000 threshold is within reach, but the real determinant of direction is not this number; it is Federal Reserve Chair Powell's first public speech at Jackson Hole this Friday. Bassett failed to suppress long-term bonds, and whether Powell can provide a clear signal on the inflation path will decide if this rally continues or stalls. One is adjusting the debt maturity structure, the other is setting inflation expectations—the direction has changed, but the pace still depends on Powell. $BTC On August 18, the SEC introduced a new proposal called "Regulation Crypto Assets."
It opened two compliance financing paths for crypto projects: startup financing up to $5 million within four years, or ongoing financing up to $75 million per year.
Both tiers must comply with federal anti-fraud provisions.
It also established a safe harbor clause—once a project completes or permanently ceases "key managerial efforts" for investors, the tokens can shed their securities status and be traded without registration or lock-up restrictions.
This proposal directly responds to the stagnation of the CLARITY Act in the Senate. The probability of the CLARITY Act passing in February was 82%, but bettors on Polymarket have lowered that probability to 18% to 21%. White House crypto policy advisor Pat Witt said at the SALT conference, "If the legislative window in September fails, regulators will not wait indefinitely."
The SEC acted before Congress. There will be a 60-day public comment period before the final version can be set. Hester Peirce plans to step down in November 2026. Whether the rule can be finalized before she leaves will determine if this compliance channel opens in 2027 or if it will take longer. $BTC We might think: what if I buy now and BTC drops back to 58,000? A 20% drop could lead to 30%, 40%... This is a common "fear of heights delusion" in right-side trading. Actually, right-side buying usually requires setting a stop-loss point in advance; this is determined comprehensively based on your technical indicators, actual position, and risk preference. For example, I personally use STH-RP as an important reference. From historical data, in the latter half of a bear market, as long as STH-RP is broken through, there is a high probability of a small trend emerging. Afterwards, if the price retests STH-RP without breaking it, the trend continues. If it breaks below, the trend ends. Currently, STH-RP is around $70,000 (dynamic). So if BTC drops back to 70k, caution is needed; if the daily level breaks below, stop-loss should be triggered. Therefore, theoretically, the stop-loss range for right-side positions is roughly around -10%, definitely not waiting until -25% or more to make a decision. Of course, if BTC fluctuates around STH-RP, we will be worn down back and forth — this depends on how you interpret it. In my view, wear and tear in trading is normal, even necessary. Because I don't want to miss a big trend just to avoid wear and tear. After Bitcoin climbs back above $80,000, the market is most likely to see two extreme opinions: one says a new bull market has been confirmed, the other says it's just a brief rebound after the bears were crushed. My view falls somewhere in between—this rally isn't just sentiment hype, but whether it can turn into a real trend reversal is just entering the most critical verification phase. On August 25 Beijing time, BTC once touched about $81,200, hitting a three-month high, with a cumulative gain of about 28% for August. The previous week, it rose about 22.7%, marking the largest single-week gain in US dollar history. More notably, last week US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $1.92 billion, while over $4 billion in short positions were liquidated amid rapid rises. These three numbers represent three completely different forces: ETF inflows are real spot demand; Short liquidations are forced buybacks; The weakening dollar and the decline in long-term US Treasury yields have improved the funding environment for risk assets. The simultaneous emergence of three forces pushed BTC from over $60,000 to above $80,000. So, I don't agree with the statement that the rally is entirely credited to one person. Speeches can ignite sentiment, but they cannot create sustained buying alone. The real value of this rally is that ETF funds are flowing back and macro liquidity expectations have improved. It's more solid than relying solely on high leverage to rally. But I won't immediately announce a bull market return just because it breaks $80,000. Short liquidations are one-time fuel; once cleared, they won't reappear every day;$OL I think this is a project that has already died, with only a robot deployed for continuously selling tokens. The team has already disbanded.#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
The impact on us is twofold.
Short-term sentiment has already been digested. Oil prices have fallen, short-term inflation expectations have cooled down, which gives risk assets a breather. BTC broke through 80000 today, which is somewhat related to this news.
Medium-term uncertainty remains. Digital assets being included in secondary sanctions means crypto trading and on-chain settlements might be targeted. If third countries cooperate in enforcement, liquidity in the crypto market could be indirectly affected.
Here’s my take.
This round of sanctions is a "peak benefit" style pullback for oil prices in the short term, but the medium to long term depends on enforcement strength and Iran’s countermeasures. Including digital assets in secondary sanctions is a new variable—previously sanctions mainly targeted traditional finance, now on-chain settlements are also under scrutiny.
BTC is currently fluctuating; the sanctions landing haven’t triggered a surge in oil prices, and short-term sentiment is relatively stable. But medium-term uncertainty remains, and the CLARITY Act vote on September 15 is the real turning point.
What do you all think?
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC brothers, this week's market depends on Wednesday!
At 8:30 PM on August 26, the US July core PCE data will be released. Previously, CPI met expectations, PPI was below expectations, non-farm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, and retail sales saw the largest drop in over a year—all signals of cooling. PCE, as the Fed's most important inflation indicator, is the final piece to verify this "inflation cooling + weak employment + consumption brake" puzzle. The market currently expects core PCE annual rate at 3.3% and monthly rate at 0.2%.
Three scenarios:
$ETH 📈 PCE higher than expected → inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, September rate hike probability rises. BTC and ETH suffer, risk assets broadly pressured.
$ZEC 📉 PCE lower than expected → forms a "five consecutive declines" dovish loop, market may price in rate cuts early. Major market violently rebounds, altcoins celebrate.
📊 Meets expectations → inflation remains stuck at a high 3.3%, well above the 2% target. Rate hike expectations fluctuate slightly, choppy market, short-term quick in and out.
Additionally, this Friday, Waller will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole symposium. He has rarely given forward guidance since taking office; this speech is a real policy signal window. If hawkish signals are released, combined with an above-expectation PCE, the market could be hit doubly.
Focus on BTC, ETH market trends; AI sector linked to Nvidia earnings; RWA sector sensitive to macro interest rates. It is recommended to control positions before the data release, as volatility will be high. #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ 把比特币从一个钱包转到另一个钱包，没有卖出、没有盈利，却可能因为“移动了资产”产生一笔税，这就是伊利诺伊州最新法律争议最值得注意的地方。8 月 21 日，Blockchain Association 与 Crypto Council for Innovation 在州法院起诉，要求阻止《数字资产税法》实施；Bloomberg Law 24 日跟进确认，这是针对该法的又一起行业挑战。 法条写得很具体：从 2027 年 1 月 1 日起，符合条件的数字资产经纪商要对伊利诺伊州客户接受的数字资产交易、转移或托管活动，按所涉资产价值的 0.2% 征税。这里的计税基础不是利润，也不只是服务费，而可能是整笔资产的价值。原告据此主张，传统股票、债券或现金的类似活动没有同等负担，这种按底层技术区分的做法违反美国与州宪法及联邦《互联网免税法》。这些都是诉讼主张，不是法院已经认定的结论。 我的判断是，0.2% 看起来很小，真正的冲击却来自“次数乘数”。一笔资产如果在交易平台、托管钱包和个人地址之间多次移动，税负可能重复出现；平台还要识别客户位置、计算资产价值、代扣并保存记录。于是市场传导并非直接决定币价，Global tech stocks have recently cooled off significantly, but what really matters is not "how much they fell," but what exactly is being traded in this correction. On August 24, the U.S. Nasdaq index dropped 0.76%, with Nvidia down 2.9%; the semiconductor sector faced even more pressure, with SanDisk and Seagate both down about 6.5%, Micron down 5.8%, and Marvell down 3.3%. Earlier, on August 18, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5% in a single day, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.33%. Meanwhile, Asian tech stocks were also dragged down, with semiconductor sectors in markets like South Korea and Japan weakening simultaneously. So the question arises: Are global tech stocks "reversing to pick up passengers," or is the AI market entering a valuation correction? 1. This decline does not reflect a sudden collapse in fundamentals. The biggest current market concern is not the disappearance of AI demand, but a more realistic question: With so much money invested in AI companies, how much can they actually earn back in the future? Previously, the market’s valuation of the AI industry chain was based on a very optimistic expectation: continuous expansion of data centers, rapid growth in chip demand, and increasing corporate capital expenditures. But as long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the market has begun to recalculate the value of these future profits. Simply put, the same $10 billion in future profits is worth more in a low-interest-rate environment; the higher the interest rate, the lower the discounted present value. Therefore, this tech stock correction looks more like a simultaneous repricing of valuations and capital costs, rather than a sudden disappearance of AI industry logic. 2. The real watershed is Nvidia’s earnings report. Currently, the global tech stocks mostHow long does it take to go from a $9.5 billion loss to a $4.7 billion profit? Strategy only took one week.
With $BTC rapidly rebounding, Strategy's position went from an unrealized loss of over $9.5 billion to an unrealized gain of over $4.7 billion within a week, a book value change of nearly $14.2 billion.
But note that the $4.7 billion is not Strategy's "earned" operating profit.
Strategy's core business did not suddenly explode; what truly changed the financial statements was the price of Bitcoin.
Every step up or down in BTC is directly reflected in the company's net assets through its massive holdings.
Saylor recently posted "The Bitcoin Reformation," signaling that he is no longer satisfied with packaging BTC as a corporate reserve asset but is trying to elevate it to a monetary system reform.
However, note that this model works smoothly when prices rise: the stock price gains a premium, the company continues to raise funds to buy coins, and increased holdings further strengthen market expectations.
Once BTC weakens, book losses, stock price pullbacks, and financing pressure will all occur simultaneously.
Strategy has now evolved into a BTC shadow asset with leveraged financing.
The $14.2 billion reversal proves its resilience but does not eliminate risk.
What truly deserves attention is whether this "financing-to-buy-coin machine" can continue to operate after Strategy's stock price premium narrows.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 AI is stealing electricity from Bitcoin, but miners have found a more profitable business
Bitcoin surged from 64,000 to 81,000, rising 26% in a week. Many attribute this to ETF inflows and a weaker dollar. But there's a deeper logic no one talks about—AI and Bitcoin are competing for the same thing: electricity and computing power.
Gold bull Peter Schiff recently posted on X that AI isn't helping Bitcoin; it's competing with Bitcoin for resources. Money, electricity, data centers—there's only so much, and if AI takes more, Bitcoin gets less.
This sounds reasonable, but the reality is completely the opposite—miners are making money from AI.
IREN signed a $9.7 billion AI cloud infrastructure deal with Microsoft. TeraWulf signed about a $19 billion computing power contract with Anthropic. Core Scientific is also providing high-performance computing for CoreWeave. These companies used to survive by mining Bitcoin, but now they earn more from AI computing power than from mining.
Even more aggressively, they are hoarding Bitcoin with the money earned from AI.
So the "competition" Schiff mentioned does exist, but Bitcoin hasn't lost—miners use the cash earned from AI to keep buying Bitcoin and expanding computing power. Both sides are growing; they compete, but in the end, the winners are the same group of people.
What's interesting here is that when two industries start competing for the same resources, it often means both industries have reached a critical point.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE 0.0926, +2.79%. BTC has risen to 80,000, but DOGE has only increased by less than 3%—this thermometer is a bit sluggish.
24h range 0.0897-0.0929, volume 435 million, not cold but not hot either. RSI is around 60, the fear and greed index should be following BTC up to 80. Technical analysis in plain language: the 50-day EMA (0.074-0.075) is holding steady, but the 200-day EMA (0.095-0.100) is still pressing down from above, so the mid-term bull trend is not confirmed.
BTC rose 20% in a week, how much did DOGE rise? Just over 10%. Why? Because DOGE's engine is not institutional funds, but retail sentiment. This BTC rally is driven by ETFs and Treasury buybacks, an institutional bull market; retail investors haven't entered on a large scale yet, so DOGE naturally can't jump.
Elon Musk hasn't tweeted, no new ETF catalysts, it's all dependent on the overall market mood. The biggest trap with this coin is "thinking you understand it because it went up"—when BTC really pulls back, DOGE falls faster than anyone.
DOGE is the sentiment thermometer among altcoins, don't treat it as your main holding. Wait until BTC stabilizes at 80,000 and retail FOMO sentiment kicks in, then DOGE might catch up. Now at 0.093, above is 0.10, a psychological barrier plus the 200-day line double resistance, so the room to run is limited. Keep your position under 5%, don't be greedy. What Jackson Hole fears most this time is not hawkishness
but continued ambiguity. The market is no longer simply waiting for a "rate hike or not" statement, but for Walsh to clarify the Fed's reaction function: whether it fears inflation more or a slowdown in growth; whether it focuses on data or bond market stress.
If the speech is too vague, the bond market will fill in the answers itself, and the stock market will start guessing wildly. Now long bonds, the dollar, gold, and BTC are all moving, indicating that everyone is trading the same thing: policy credibility.
I think the value of this speech lies not in handing out favors to risk assets, but in telling the market which lines cannot be crossed. Without clear boundaries, all rebounds easily turn into temporarily borrowed courage
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Bitcoin has surpassed $80,000 again after more than three months.
In the past week, it surged over 24% from around $63k, marking one of the strongest weekly performances in nearly three years. The main drivers:
1. The U.S. Treasury increased long-term bond repurchases, lowering long-term yields, triggering currency depreciation trades, with gold and BTC strengthening simultaneously.
2. Over $3 billion in short liquidations accelerated the breakout.
3. Spot ETFs saw nearly $2 billion in net inflows last week, with institutions buying in with real money.
4. Regulatory expectations have marginally improved.
This rally shows clear spot market characteristics, with futures open interest actually declining, indicating it’s not purely driven by leverage.
However, the market has entered an overbought zone; the quality of the next correction will determine whether the upward momentum can truly expand. If $76k–$78k can hold effectively, the structure will be healthier.
ETH has performed even stronger this round (up about 30% weekly), with an ETH/BTC golden cross occurring.
When price volatility increases, the real risks often lie not in the market itself but in how holdings are managed. Single points of failure, identity mapping, device failures, update dependencies... these are most easily overlooked during euphoric times.
Markets can move fast, but security boundaries usually do not.
(Data as of 2026-08-25)4 billion USD short positions, who exactly helped BTC to rise?
The crypto market has been rising a bit ridiculously these days.
BTC surged from over 60,000 all the way to nearly 80,000, rising more than 20% in just a few days. (Business Insider)
But I think the most noteworthy number in this rally isn’t how much BTC has risen.
It’s:
4 billion USD.
During this rally, the short liquidations have already exceeded 4 billion USD.
On August 19 alone, about 1.44 billion USD worth of shorts were forcibly liquidated, with nearly 1.3 billion USD wiped out within just one hour.
This is interesting.
Many people saw BTC suddenly surge and their first reaction was:
"Funds have entered the market."
But I think the first phase isn’t that simple.
The ones initially pushing BTC up were very likely the shorts themselves.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
► Shorts were originally waiting for BTC to keep falling
The market had actually been suppressed for a long time.
Many were used to BTC not breaking higher, so they kept shorting and leveraging, waiting for another downturn.
But on August 19, the market suddenly reversed.
The U.S. Treasury announced an increase in long-term Treasury repo operations, long-term yields started to fall, and risk asset sentiment clearly improved. Meanwhile, BTC broke through a key level. (Barron's)
The first batch of short positions started to blow up.
What happens after liquidation?
Forced liquidation = forced buying back of BTC.
BTC rises → shorts liquidate → forced buying → BTC rises further → more shorts liquidate.
This is the classic:
Short Squeeze.
So this time it’s not simply "someone bought, BTC went up."
It’s:
Someone was forced to buy, making BTC rise faster.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
► But I think the real focus is the second phase
If it was just a short squeeze, after the 4 billion USD liquidation, the rally should theoretically end.
But BTC is still above 70,000 USD, even once approaching 80,000 USD. (TradingView)
Moreover, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about 2.6 billion USD last week, marking the strongest week since October 2025. (Decrypt)
This makes me seriously watch this rally.
Because:
Short liquidations explain why it rose so fast.
But ETF funds, the USD, and Treasury yields are what might determine:
Whether it can continue after the rise.
So I won’t shout "new bull market is here" just because BTC suddenly jumped 20%.
Instead, I want to see one thing:
Can 70,000 USD turn from a resistance level into a support level?
If after the short squeeze ends, spot funds continue to come in, then the nature of this rally is different.
If it’s just a one-time impulse from liquidations, then a sharp pullback could still happen later.
So this 4 billion USD short liquidation, what I find truly interesting isn’t:
"How many people lost money again."
But:
The market has for the first time turned those betting on a decline into fuel for the rise.
Next, it depends on whether new money is willing to take over this relay baton.
This is what I’m most focused on now.
The above is purely personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice, DYOR.
#BTC #ShortSqueeze#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ The U.S. has officially launched a comprehensive economic isolation sanction plan against Iran, yet the market did not continue the previous geopolitical price surge logic; instead, international oil prices have noticeably fallen. The core reason is the combined effect of expectation games, trading rhythms, and real constraints.
First is the typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact." The market had already priced in the geopolitical conflict risk between the U.S. and Iran in advance, with oil prices rising continuously by over 5%. After the sanctions were officially implemented, bullish funds concentrated on taking profits, releasing selling pressure at high levels. Second, this round of sanctions mainly targets financial, shipping, and trade blockades rather than military conflict, so in the short term, it will not directly cut off Iran's crude oil exports. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not seen substantial interruption, significantly cooling panic expectations of extreme supply disruption.
At the same time, the market began weighing the actual impact of the sanctions. Iran has long had channels to circumvent sanctions to export crude oil, and major buyers such as China, the U.S., and India still have stable import demand, so the supply side will not experience a cliff-like contraction. Coupled with rising concerns that high oil prices will weaken global demand, funds have started pricing in the possibility of subsequent pressure on crude oil consumption.
The short-term oil price decline is a phase correction of the geopolitical premium, not a reversal of the supply-demand pattern. As long as Iran's crude oil exports are restricted and transportation risks in the strait remain, oil prices still have strong support at high levels. Going forward, it is necessary to track the actual decline in Iran's exports and changes in the regional situation. $BTC $ETH $SOL #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 The U.S. government talks grandly about the bill, but in reality, it is fully betting on AI. Money is pouring in. AI has also invested in rare earths, Intel, IBM, and other companies, making banks' balance sheets take on more AI assets. This is the main task, responsible for future development and returns. On the other hand, the U.S. government hopes to channel funds into stablecoins. The crypto bull market and stablecoin inflows can boost demand for U.S. Treasuries and improve the Fed's current balance sheet. The side task is to introduce policies to support crypto, channel funds into stablecoins, and use stablecoins to boost U.S. debt demand So once the bull market starts, I think there's no going back. Crypto assets have a responsibility to bear—they're used for financing US Treasuries, like a small horse pulling a big cart. If we can use policies to drive hundreds of billions of dollars into stablecoins and US Treasuries without spending money, that's the best solution—and also the cause of this bull market. The bull market isn't what you think—it's money actively pushing it, but passively taking action. When policies just talk to guide capital into US Treasuries, what do you think they'll do? Understanding this line, you'll know this rally won't end easily. #BTC breaks $80,000, can it hold a new level? #美启动对伊经济孤立, why did oil prices fall? #Strategy增发扩充现金, the pace of BTC allocation is $BTC $ETH of attention LIQUIDITY IS THE REAL ENGINE BEHIND THIS MOVE
Bitcoin above $80K isn't happening in isolation.
ETF inflows have returned, the dollar has weakened and Treasury buyback expectations have improved the liquidity backdrop.
That creates room for risk assets to reprice.
But the key question now:
Does liquidity keep expanding into crypto—or does capital simply rotate between sectors?
Watch flows before chasing candles.
#BTC #Liquidity #Crypto #ETF
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls #Strategy issues more shares to increase cash, BTC allocation pace under scrutiny
Strategy has raised another $2 billion, but hasn't bought a single $BTC.
According to the usual script: raise funds → buy BTC → increase BTC holdings → market continues the narrative.
But this time, no BTC was bought. Instead, a large amount of cash was kept on hand, and some was used to repurchase preferred shares.
However, this does not mean Strategy is bearish on BTC, as it still holds 840,447 BTC.
For a highly leveraged, high-premium BTC treasury company like Strategy, the biggest fear is not a short-term dip in BTC, but a sudden liquidity crunch in the market, leaving the company cashless and forced to sell assets.
Now, with billions of dollars in cash on hand, it has essentially created a safety cushion for itself.
So when looking at Strategy now, don’t just focus on "raising another $2 billion."
What really matters is whether this money will eventually be used to buy more BTC, or to repurchase securities, repay debt, and maintain capital structure.
If it ultimately goes back into BTC, it’s just a delayed purchase.
But if it starts reducing BTC allocation over the long term and reallocates cash and capital structure elsewhere, it could mean its strategy is changing.
The $2 billion cash is ammunition, but it could also be defense.
Next, we’ll see when it pulls the trigger.
Care to guess if Strategy dares to keep buying $BTC ?Joining the crypto circle is not about making a quick buck. Over the past few years, we have witnessed the rapid development of AI, but many people have not realized that the future will inevitably belong to silicon-based life. Moreover, AI agents will sooner or later need matching identities. In other words, as an independent entity, AI needs to maintain its own operation, requiring savings, mergers, purchasing shares, and so on. A crypto wallet is essentially a natural AI identity proof. The true rise of crypto as digital gold is driven by AI. Gold and silver have naturally been the currency of the human world, while crypto is inherently the currency of AI. As society's main body shifts from humans to AI, crypto will replace gold and silver's position in the world. Gold cannot become AI's currency because AI exists in virtual space and finds it difficult to verify the authenticity of physical gold. Therefore, the main currency in the AI era must be in virtual space. The silicon-based world, or AI world, will experience explosive growth. For a long time, the real world has nurtured the virtual world, but within 2-3 years, the prosperity of another world will quickly surpass the real world. Through currencies like $HYPE, AI can control property rights in the real world, and through robot AI, it can act, explore, and build factories in the real world.Now should Strategy's $1.59 billion be considered as BTC buy orders, or first as capital structure defense?
I trust the latter more. Last week, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR, raising $2.007 billion, but didn't buy a single BTC. They repurchased 136.4 million STRC, added 300 million to reserves, and only then put the remaining funds into USD Cash. This money can buy coins, pay interest, or repurchase securities, so don't count the entire $1.59 billion as pending buy orders yet.
BTC has reached 80,780 on the 4-hour chart, very close to the 81,266.4 resistance, with EMA20 at 77,561.5; the S&P on the right side still holds the daily EMA20, so risk appetite hasn't deteriorated. If BTC closes above 81,266.4 and the next disclosure shows more accumulation, then I'll consider it structural buying. If cash continues to be used for buybacks and debt repayment, this rally can't be credited to Strategy.
$BTC #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
For information organization and personal opinion only, not investment advice. After BTC surged to 81280 and then pulled back, ZEC continues to be strong, and ZRO is moving along: where is the capital flowing out from the mainstream?
Brothers, today's market is not about capital retreating from BTC, but rather BTC breaking through and starting to make room for high Beta assets.
$BTC peaked at 81280, then pulled back near 80,000. As long as this level holds, the main trend remains intact; if it falls back below 79,000, today's breakout might turn out to be a false move.
$ZEC follows a different logic. With the privacy narrative plus short covering, its elasticity is clearly greater than BTC. What it fears most now is not lack of buyers, but rising too fast. Holding around 840 means strength remains; if it falls back below 820, expect profit-taking first.
$ZRO seems more like a probe of capital rotation. It moves with altcoin sentiment but has not yet proven it can sustain an independent trend. Without continuous volume increase, a single surge can only be seen as short-term capital testing the waters, not a main upward wave.
So what I see now are three styles of capital:
BTC absorbs institutions and liquidity;
ZEC absorbs privacy narratives and short squeezes;
ZRO absorbs altcoin rotation and sentiment overflow.
True capital diffusion should be BTC holding above 80,000, ZEC not collapsing at highs, and ZRO continuing to increase volume. As long as BTC falls back below 80,000, the first to be cashed out are usually these high Beta themes.
Brothers, what do you think?
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口