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Tonight's (August 28) Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting mainly impacts the crypto space through interest rate expectations and global liquidity, and this time the conference theme directly involves crypto innovation, making the impact more complex.
The specific impacts can be viewed from these angles:
1. Core logic: Liquidity is the "lifeline": What the crypto community cares about most is how the Fed's speech will affect global liquidity and long-term Treasury yields. Some analyses point out that Bitcoin's price movements follow global liquidity more than any specific Fed rate decision. The recent rebound is considered a "liquidity event" triggered by the U.S. Treasury's intervention in the long-term Treasury market to release liquidity.
2. Policy expectations (hawkish vs dovish) determine short-term direction:
· Hawkish (concerned about inflation): If Waller emphasizes inflation risks (currently PCE inflation is still as high as 3.7%), the market will worry about rate hikes or liquidity tightening. This would boost the dollar, suppress risk assets like $BTC, and even trigger market volatility.
· Dovish (hinting at easing): Any hint of rate cuts or looser financial conditions will be seen as positive. The market will expect more funds flowing into risk assets, pushing crypto prices up.
· "Middle path" variable: The market generally speculates that Waller will keep the option to raise rates but is unlikely to hike before the November midterm elections. His speaking style is less transparent than his predecessor’s, and this "ambiguity" itself may cause market volatility due to lack of clear direction.
3. This year's unique variable: Financial innovation theme: The conference theme is "Financial Innovation, Payments, and Policy," with stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and blockchain payments as focal points. If Waller shows a positive or accepting attitude toward these, it will be a direct benefit to the Bitcoin ecosystem (especially smart contracts and payment protocol networks).
Overall, the crypto community is waiting tonight for Waller to set the "macro tone." Bitcoin is hovering near the $80,000 mark, and every word he says could trigger sharp short-term volatility.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 Many people ask:
If centralized cloud storage is really insecure, why hasn't capital immediately rushed crazily into Filecoin?
The answer is actually very simple.
The biggest problem for Filecoin right now is not whether there is storage capacity, but that enterprise-level demand has not yet truly scaled up.
AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud still have huge advantages in hot data, low latency, SLA, and enterprise ecosystems.
But this does not mean Filecoin has no chance.
AI is generating massive amounts of data, and the battlefield truly suitable for Filecoin might be:
AI datasets, cold data, backups, archives, public data, and long-term storage.
So stop hyping "FIL will soon replace AWS."
What really deserves attention is:
When will the 12 EiB-level network capacity be converted into sustained growth of real paid storage?
If this step succeeds,
Filecoin will truly move from being a "miners' storage network" to a "global data infrastructure."
I can't guarantee FIL will definitely succeed.
But in this race, I’m not ready to exit early. $FIL From the dog with a hat to the ape playing on a phone, the Meme self-mockery economics behind fone's 700% surge
The Meme coin fone on the Solana ecosystem surged over 700% intraday, with its market cap briefly surpassing $38 million, currently around $36.9 million.
Its community is almost obsessively repeating the same meme: ape on a phone, a big ape staring down at a phone trading crypto. The community even directly compares it to last cycle's dogwifhat; back then, WIF went viral purely because of the "dog with a hat" meme, while fone focuses the lens on the most authentic retail investor daily reality today.
Why can this simple narrative ignite tens of millions in liquidity in such a short time?
Frankly, fone hit on a highly potent self-mocking meta-narrative within Memes.
This round of on-chain PVP trading habits has completely shifted to mobile. Whether commuting, slacking off, or suffering insomnia late at night, everyone scrolls through Twitter or group chat codes and buys mindlessly with their mobile wallets within seconds. That ape furiously tapping on the phone in front of the screen ironically represents the token holders placing orders themselves. This extreme deconstruction of their own speculative behavior naturally carries viral-level spreadability in the attention economy.
Combined with zero-barrier mobile bot buying, sentiment quickly converts into market cap realization.
But amid the frenzy, one must stay clear-headed. Referencing WIF is the standard rhetoric for new Memes; the pump ultimately is a chip game under focused attention. Whether a true cultural consensus can be established after the hype fades is the key to its survival.Yesterday in the US stock market, two stocks each played out different scenarios.
First, the one with the largest volume, $NVDA, closed at 227.98, up 8.74%, with 297.2 million shares traded, more than double the three-month average volume of 141.7 million shares. This bullish candlestick justifies the volume; Q2 revenue was 96.2 billion, and Q3 guidance was directly raised to 108 billion, leaving behind the previous average expectation of 104.19 billion. The expected positive surprises did not appear, and concerns about AI slowing down were temporarily suppressed.
$SPCX was supposed to face selling pressure from this wave of unlocking, but it closed at 140.87, up 0.89%. This is the second time this month; on August 6, 911.5 million shares were unlocked, and the market expected a crash but instead rose 6.1%. Yesterday, the batch release also didn’t cause much of a drop, proving it’s truly a faith-driven stock. Elon Musk himself still holds a large number of shares and over 80% of voting rights; there aren’t many old shareholders truly willing to cut losses.
The common variable for both today is that Warsh will speak at 10 o’clock in Jackson Hole. The 10-year yield has already reached 4.67%, and the 30-year yield stands at 5.19%. The stock market is so calm because it’s betting he won’t be too hawkish.
Watch if NVDA can hold 227.98, and 140 is the watershed for SPCX. Tonight, we wait to see what Warsh says.$BTC is still circling $80,000. $ETH can’t lock $2,500. The timeline is calling that weakness.
I think that’s the wrong read.
BTC went through $81,000, then came back under $80k. ETH is chopping $2,502. $SOL is the one that didn’t flinch as hard, still near $107. That is not a market that lost buyers. That is a market that ran, tagged liquidity, and is now forcing late longs to decide whether they were positioned or just excited.
The ETF tape is the tell people are misusing.
BTC funds took about $232M. ETH took about $192M. ETH is a fraction of BTC’s size and still almost matched the bid. If institutions were done, that print doesn’t show up. If they were only dumping into strength, you don’t keep seeing net inflows while price cools off.
So the question is not “why isn’t price exploding if ETFs are buying?”
The question is “who is selling into the bid?”
That’s the whole tape. Spot ETFs are taking paper. Somebody else is using that bid as an exit. Profit-taking after the $81k spike. Whales fading the high. Options-related flow after this morning’s expiry. All of that can sit on top of real institutional demand and still pin ETH under $2,530.
This is what a handover looks like in real time. Not a clean breakout candle. A messy range where size absorbs, leverage gets shaken, and the chart looks dead for a few hours.
I’m not treating $79,870 BTC and $2,500 ETH as proof the bid failed. I’m treating them as the battlefield.
If BTC can get back above $80,800 with volume, and ETH can live above $2,530 instead of just tagging it, then the inflows were accumulation, not a bandage. SOL through $110 would confirm risk is still expanding.
If BTC loses $79,000 and ETH loses $2,470, then yes — the ETF bid was only defending, not pushing.
Until one of those breaks, I’m not joining the “institutions never came back” chorus. They came back. They’re just not paying the breakout tax for you.
The real split is simpler:
Are institutions building the next leg?
Or is this just a quieter book passing from fast money to slower money at the highs? This looks like selective risk-taking, not a broad crypto breakout. BTC holding near $79,812 while SOL gains 5.11% and ETH stays flat suggests capital is favoring higher-beta exposure without confirming market-wide strength.
The BTC options expiry test could amplify short-term moves, but I would put more weight on whether ETH begins to participate. Until then, SOL's outperformance is notable, yet the underlying signal remains narrow rather than decisively bullish.
Not advice, just analysis.$BTC is hovering at 79,451, down 0.76% in 24h. Trading volume is 36.89B, significantly higher than yesterday. On the ETF side, there have been nine consecutive inflows, with a net inflow of 242.3M on 8/27; IBIT alone took in 277.6M, while FBTC reversed and withdrew 83.6M. Total ETF assets surged to 100.927B, reaching a scale of over 10 billion.
Yesterday, I was drinking with a mining industry veteran who said miners are no longer selling coins; once electricity costs are covered, they hold, waiting for the price to stabilize at six figures before selling. This is completely different from early 2024 when miners were still dumping coins.
In the short term, 80K is the watershed; if it holds, expect 82K-84K, if not, a pullback to 76K. The mid-term narrative remains unchanged—continuous ETF inflows + supply contraction after halving + if Powell dovetails at Jackson Hole tonight, three signals stacking up. No shorting at the bottom, no chasing on low volume.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Bitcoin hovers around $78,000, with market panic driven more by the drop from $81,250 than by any substantial trend reversal. In my view, this is more like a natural rotation after a sharp rise; the weekly level has just stabilized above $80,000, and funds have not exited. Last week, spot ETF net inflows exceeded $2.2#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest AI earnings are revealing a second story that the market may be underpricing. Nvidia is still proving that AI infrastructure demand is enormous. But the more important question is moving one step forward: Can the companies buying all this AI infrastructure actually turn it into recurring revenue and cash flow? That changes the way I look at the sector. Hardware spending can create explosive growth, but software monetization is where the business model becomes more predictable. If enterprise AI m1. Core background of this speech: At 22:00 Beijing time on 8-28, after Waller assumed the position of Federal Reserve Chair, he delivered his first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The biggest current market contradictions: 1. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the Treasury intervenes to repurchase long-term bonds, raising market concerns that fiscal pressure is hijacking monetary policy and damaging the Fed's independence; 2. Waller's consistent style: reducing forward guidance, speaking less and listening more, policy fully data-dependent. Wall Street is extremely unaccustomed to this "no-nanny communication," and the expectation vacuum has already caused high volatility in U.S. stocks and repeated fluctuations in the bond market; 3. Inflation is falling but still far from the 2% target, and the direction of interest rates at the September meeting remains undecided. This speech is essentially a battle to defend the Fed's credibility, and the tone will directly determine the major direction of U.S. stocks in the next 1-2 months. 2. Three major scenario simulations corresponding to U.S. stock trends Scenario 1: Hawkish stance (baseline expectation) Signals: Reaffirm inflation priority, Fed independent from fiscal pressure, no rush to cut rates, retain possibility of further rate hikes, will not allow disorderly decline in long-term bond yields. ✅ Asset reaction: • Short term: U.S. Treasury yields rise, dollar rebounds; Nasdaq and AI high-valuation tech stocks pressured and pull back, value stocks relatively resilient • Medium to long term (2-4 weeks after meeting): Inflation expectations anchored, bond market panic subsides, U.S. stocks consolidate and bottom out, after high-level pullback return to structural market Scenario 2: Dovish/market soothing Signals: Hint at an approaching rate cut window, express concern over rising long-term rates, tacitly allow liquidity easing expectations. ✅ AssSolana ETF inflows hit the third highest level since launch, but history shows a 20% risk
⠀Many people are shorting $BTC and might suffer heavy losses. This rally is different from the previous two rebound drops; it is driven by real spot funds rather than leverage-driven short squeezes. All indicators show this is a very healthy bull market trend, at least a small bull market. Currently, big players are aggressively going long, while retail investors haven't FOMOed yet and are even shorting, which means there is still room to rise.
The current pullback is just a correction for the daily overbought condition, using 4-12h divergences for the correction. The larger timeframe is still in a very strong upward phase. Meanwhile, market makers will keep the price below 80k before August 28 (as mentioned in the previous quote).
September 15 is a critical date; after that, the market will decide whether to continue the bull run or return to a bear market pattern. With such a large inflow of funds now, a big drop is unlikely unless the main players deliberately trigger a crash by killing longs, but even then, it will be quickly recovered.
Right now, everyone is focused on crypto and gold. Previously hot AI hardware and some persistently weak big tech and consumer stocks can be bought when no one is paying attention. Yesterday, I started a position in McDonald's and am watching Nike, Meta, ORCL, INTC, and Google. Most of these stocks are hard to pump for others, but a crazy short squeeze will definitely happen in the future. Find the right timing, enter on the left side, and if the price breaks key levels, you can stop loss; if not, hold on and feel secure.$BTC is still hanging around $80,000. $ETH can’t even hold $2,500 properly. That’s the awkward part of today.
BTC tagged above $81,000, then slipped back under $80k. ETH is stuck around $2,502, chopping the $2,500 line. $SOL is the quiet one, sitting near $107 and not giving as much back.
The flow data makes it more confusing, not less.
Yesterday’s print: BTC spot ETFs took in about $232M. ETH took in about $192M. ETH is less than 20% of BTC’s market cap, but it pulled in nearly 80% of BTC’s ETF money. On paper, ETH should be the stronger tape. On the chart, it can’t even hold $2,530.
That tells you what this bid actually is.
ETF money right now looks like a floor, not a breakout. It is absorbing supply. It is not dragging price through resistance. Above, you still have profit-taking, whale distribution, and leftover options positioning looking for a better exit. Institutions can buy and price can still go nowhere if someone else is selling into that bid.
So I’m not asking “are ETFs buying?” They are. I’m asking whether that buying is offensive or defensive.
The signals I care about from here are simple:
BTC reclaiming $80,800 with volume.
ETH holding above $2,530.
SOL pushing through $110.
That would mean risk appetite is still expanding.
The other side is just as clean. BTC losing $79,000 and ETH losing $2,470 would make these inflows look like support, not attack. A bid that only shows up after the wick is not the same as a bid that forces the range higher.
The worst case is not “institutions never came back.”
The worst case is institutions *are* buying, and price is only being held up by short covering.
That’s the difference between a real return of size and a high-level handover.
Brothers do you think institutions actually came back, or are they just taking the bag from someone who already made the move?
$BTC $ETH $SOLSomething interesting is happening with Bitcoin, and it goes beyond price. For years, $BTC often traded like a technology asset. When the Nasdaq rallied, Bitcoin usually benefited from the same risk appetite. When investors moved away from risk, both could sell off together. But that relationship is changing. Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has reportedly fallen from above 60% to around 33%. At the same time, its correlation with gold has risen from almost zero earlier this yeaBTC 从 81000 上方回落到 79000 到 80000 之间，但没有出现结构性的崩塌。这个数字本身不刺激，刺激的是它背后藏着的两个事实：有人在大量获利了结，但接盘的力量同样坚决。市场不是在恐慌，而是在换手。 ETF 的净流入还在持续，机构没有因为价格回落就转身离场。这轮下跌更像是一次健康的降温，而不是趋势的终结。比特币在消化抛压，而以太坊稳稳站在 2500 附近，相对强度肉眼可见。资金没有离开加密，只是在重新挑座位。 接下来要留意的不是 BTC 能不能再冲一次，而是那些小市值代币，像 H、LAB、KAITO、BEAT、SNDK，它们明显跑输了大盘。这说明风险偏好没有全面扩散，资金更愿意待在确定性高的地方。这种环境下，山寨的反弹更多是脉冲，而不是趋势。 跨市场联动看，美股如果继续走强，BTC 的支撑会更扎实；反过来，如果美元指数反弹，风险资产的压力会率先传导到 ETH 和山寨。现在市场交易的不是方向，而是节奏。BTC 领跑，ETH 跟涨，小币种掉队，这种结构通常出现在一轮行情的中段，而不是终点。 所以我的结论是：价格在休息，但资金没有离场。真正的风险不在于下跌，而在于你以为山寨会午后市场情绪仍然偏暖，比特币在81000美元附近反复整理，以太坊报2490美元左右，SOL则成为山寨币中表现最亮眼的那一个。贪婪情绪重新占据主导，但盘面越是热闹，越需要留意那些容易被人忽略的细节。 合约市场的信号其实并不完全一致。大额期权今天集中到期，8万美元被视作多空双方都紧盯的关键防线，这类节点往往容易出现插针行情。与此同时，现货ETF的流入并未停歇，空单被反复挤压，爆仓量不小。杠杆资金堆积得越厚，价格的弹性就越脆弱，方向一旦确认，波动幅度可能比大多数人预期的更剧烈。 宏观层面给了市场一个相对温和的托底。美元和美债同步走弱，为风险资产腾出了喘息空间。接下来更大的变量在于今晚美联储官员在杰克逊霍尔的公开讲话，市场希望从中捕捉到更多政策框架的线索。而9月即将进入表决阶段的加密法案，则是另一个值得持续跟踪的中期变量，它可能影响的不只是短期情绪，更是行业合规化的节奏。 行业动态方面，Ethena提出取消VC解锁并推进回购的提案，试图在代币分配上回应社区长期以来的关切；Hyperliquid则把目光投向美国合规衍生品市场，这类布局虽然短期不会直接反映在币价上，但往往暗示着项目方对未来竞争格局Over the past six months, amid the AI-driven rally of risk assets, Bitcoin's trading attributes have shifted more toward high-beta risk assets rather than currency hedge tools. However, a reversal seems approaching: Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from over 60% to about 33%; Meanwhile, its correlation with gold has climbed from nearly zero at the beginning of the year to over 50%. This change may reflect investors' renewed emphasis on Bitcoin's scarcity, currency independence, and role as a store of value. As the market landscape shifts, the macro environment has once again pushed depreciation trading into the spotlight. U.S. federal government debt recently surpassed $40 trillion, and over the past year, long-term yields on U.S. Treasuries have seen a significant sell-off. Expanding debt, persistent fiscal deficits, and rising long-term yields have prompted investors to seek assets that can hedge against deteriorating fiscal and monetary fundamentals. Bitcoin was born after the global financial crisis for this environment: decentralized issuers, transparent issuance rules, and a fixed total supply cap of 21 million coins. As fiscal imbalances worsen, investors reassess the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies, and Bitcoin can become a liquid alternative asset with scarcity attributes alongside gold. The combination of scarcity and differentiated yield-driven logic makes Bitcoin a highly attractive allocation option in modern diversified investment portfolios. Key point: As the market recognizes the diversified allocation value of scarce digital assets like Bitcoin,ENA (Buyback Proposal Implemented, Short-term Surge)
❌ Don't take ENA buyback as a guaranteed price increase!
Ethena canceled VC monthly unlocks and uses protocol revenue to buy back tokens. After the news was released, ENA surged over 24% in the short term.
The proposal indeed improves future sell pressure expectations and is a positive factor.
But a key point: the buyback is executed gradually, not a one-time bottom support. The short-term rise is more about news-driven sentiment speculation.
After the positive news is realized, it’s easy to see a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario.
Will you reduce your position during this rebound, or continue to gamble on new highs?
#ENA #StablecoinSectorWash's speech tonight is worth paying attention to.
But I think what really needs to be heard is not just whether there will be a rate cut in September.
More importantly, will he talk about:
The Fed's future policy framework, balance sheet, and the relationship between monetary policy and fiscal policy.
Currently, the U.S. fiscal side hopes to lower long-term financing costs, while the Fed needs to control inflation.
One wants to bring down long-term interest rates, the other needs to prevent inflation from rising again.
There is actually a very interesting policy game here.
So if Wash only talks about September's policy tonight, the market may quickly digest it.
But if he starts talking about the long-term policy framework, then the significance is different.
Because the market is never just trading a single rate cut.
What really affects BTC, U.S. stocks, and these risk assets is:
Whether future liquidity will become more accommodative or continue to remain tight. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC The stablecoin market is entering a different phase. For years stablecoins were mainly viewed as the cash layer of crypto: a way to move capital between exchanges park liquidity during volatility or interact with DeFi. That description is becoming incomplete. The bigger development is that stablecoins are increasingly being treated as payment and settlement infrastructure. The Scale Is Already Significant Stablecoin supply has expanded dramatically over the past few years reaching roughly $300B+❓Will $XRP replicate BTC's corporate treasury market?
Many people are still only focused on the XRP spot ETF, but an easily overlooked variable has emerged.
Evernorth (the main entity for XRP treasury) has its SEC registration effective, taking another step toward Nasdaq listing.
In the past, corporate treasury allocations were almost exclusively $BTC, but now the game has changed:
Public companies are specifically setting up vehicles to hold XRP.
Once this model works, it won't just be short-term speculative funds from exchanges; long-term institutional allocation funds might enter.
⚠️ But there is a huge trap here:
Registration effective ≠ smooth listing; listing ≠ guaranteed continuous buying of XRP.
The treasury narrative is just a new story, not necessarily a price rally.
Crypto assets are gradually evolving from pure trading chips to corporate asset allocation tools, and this trend is worth tracking.
👉 Key point to watch: whether they will continue to increase XRP holdings after listing.
Do you think this narrative can drive XRP to an independent market trend? Feel free to discuss.Walsh's appearance at Jackson Hole tonight: can he clarify the policy framework?
I believe what Walsh truly needs to provide the market this time is not the answer to "whether to raise rates in September," but a clear policy reaction function.
This is his first Jackson Hole speech since taking office. The market is highly focused because he has not given a clear interest rate path since the July meeting; meanwhile, three officials advocated for a rate hike at the July FOMC, significantly widening the market's divergence on future policy direction. 
What the market really lacks now are three answers:
First, is inflation currently the top priority?
Core PCE remains around 3.3%, clearly above the 2% target.
So if Walsh clearly emphasizes tonight:
As long as inflation does not consistently return to the 2% path, the Fed will not easily shift to easing.
Then the market will interpret this as a hawkish tone.
But he does not need to directly say "a rate hike in September is certain."
Second, under what circumstances will rate hikes resume?
This might be the most important sentence tonight.
Previously, Walsh's biggest problem was that the market did not know his "reaction function."
Investors do not necessarily want him to predict September rates but want to know:
At what level of inflation will a rate hike be triggered?
How weak must employment be to prevent a rate hike?
Are the already high long-term Treasury yields considered part of financial tightening?
Currently, the market generally believes Walsh needs to provide a clearer framework on these issues than before. 
Third, and often overlooked: U.S. Treasuries
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at a very high level.
If Walsh continues to emphasize tonight:
High long-term yields themselves are tightening financial conditions
Then the market might interpret this as:
The Fed may not need to tighten further immediately through rate hikes.
This could be a dovish signal for risk assets.
But if his logic is:
High long-term yields are a fiscal issue, not a monetary policy issue, and the Fed still needs to use rates to tackle inflation.
Then it is a completely different story.
In this case, the market might reprice:
Rate hike expectations ↑ → 2-year yields ↑ → Dollar ↑ → BTC under pressure.
So tonight I divide Walsh's speech into three scenarios:
Dovish:
Inflation remains high but emphasizes no recent acceleration; employment faces downside risks; financial conditions are already tight.
→ September rate hike expectations decline
→ Dollar and Treasury yields fall back
→ Gold and BTC benefit.
Neutral-hawkish:
Insists on the 2% target, clearly states that if inflation remains stubborn, rate hikes remain an option but does not predict September.
→ Market short-term volatility
→ Increased probability of BTC rallying then falling back, but no change to medium-term trend.
Clearly hawkish:
Directly emphasizes inflation risks remain high, believes current policy is not restrictive enough, and hints at the necessity of further tightening soon.
→ Dollar and short-term yields rise
→ BTC faces significant pressure at high levels.
Which do I lean toward?
I lean toward "neutral-hawkish but no stamp on September rate hike."
The reason is simple:
Walsh cannot ignore the 3.3% core PCE now, nor does he have enough reason to confirm a rate hike based on one or two months of data.
Moreover, he has tended to reduce forward guidance, hoping the market prices more based on economic data itself. 
So the most likely core statement tonight is:
"We are firmly committed to the 2% inflation target, but future policy depends on the combined changes in inflation, employment, and financial conditions."
If this is the direction, the market may initially feel "not clear enough."
But as long as he further explains "what conditions will trigger rate hikes and what conditions will maintain the status quo," he is effectively providing a policy framework.
For BTC, don't just listen to the speech content.
What really matters tonight is how the market trades:
Walsh's speech → 2-year Treasury → Dollar → BTC
If the speech is hawkish but 2-year yields do not continue to rise, it means the market has already priced it in.
If after the speech:
2Y yields rise rapidly + Dollar strengthens + BTC breaks key support
Then it means the market truly accepts the hawkish policy framework.
Conversely, if Walsh emphasizes the inflation target but the market sees long-term yields fall and the Dollar weaken, then BTC's high-level volatility might regain funding support.
In short: Walsh does not need to tell the market "whether to raise rates in September" tonight, but he must tell the market "what data will make the Fed hike rates and what data will make it wait." If he can clearly explain this reaction function, Jackson Hole will have achieved its purpose; if he only emphasizes the 2% target without giving policy trigger conditions, market uncertainty may continue. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Putting BTC's short-window numbers together with the full-day average makes the picture much more complete than looking at the popular rankings alone. On August 28 at 15:00, OKX Onchain OS recorded 39 mentions of BTC in one hour, including 36 times x and 3 news articles; The total volume for 24 hours was 1870 times. After calculation, the latest hour is 0.50 times the long window hourly average, which is about 50% lower than the 24-hour average. This ratio only answers whether the discussion has heated up, not whether buying has increased. If you write it directly as a breakout signal, you go a step further and make an inference that the data does not support. The tone structure is a different line. One hour is slightly bullish by 54%, bearish by 10%, neutral by about 36%, which is a "bullish clearly dominant" category; Within the 24-hour period, the trend is slightly bullish by 50% and bearish by 11%. The gap between the short and long windows is the part worth tracking going forward. In terms of sources, BTC is currently mainly driven by X. When a message is widely shared, mentions increase quickly, but independent information may not increase year-on-year. The trending list cannot tell us whether each piece of text comes from different participants, nor is it weighted by account influence or fund size. The long window can be used as background: BTC has 1,613 times in 24 hours, and 257 news reports. If the proportion of sources in one hour suddenly deviates sharply, it could mean new news first broke out on a certain channel, or it could just be that news updates haven't caught up yet. Both explanations are valid"The top of a bull market always comes with new, unexpected ways or narratives that convince you it will go even higher, breaking past lessons."
In March 2024, Bitcoin broke through 73,000. At that time, no one was talking about a bear market anymore; everyone believed Bitcoin would reach 100,000.
At the same time, people also thought that once Bitcoin broke its all-time high, altcoins would take off, because that was the pattern in past bull markets.
So many people exchanged Bitcoin for altcoins, waiting for a change of fortune.
But 73,000 was actually the peak for both Bitcoin and altcoins at that time. Later, the crypto market turned bearish, and all the profits from altcoins in the bull market were fully retraced.
The past patterns and experiences were broken once again.
The best approach is to build a trading system that does not rely on predictions.
When everyone is consensually discussing that higher peak, start reducing positions in batches, executing mechanically.
This also applies in a bear market. In June this year, everyone was discussing Bitcoin at 50,000 or 40,000; everyone was in consensus, preparing to buy the dip at 50,000 or 40,000.
This is a typical signal. When the signal arrives, don’t analyze whether it will reach 50,000 or 40,000 — it’s meaningless and has no answer.
This bull market will be the same. At the end of the bull market, completely different, unexpected new stories will appear to push the price higher.
At that time, don’t study whether the story is true or false.
Quickly sell and lock in profits.In mid to late August, BTC quickly rose from just over $60,000 to nearly $80,000; market statistics show a five-day increase of about 23.6% during this period. Afterwards, the price once surged to $81,000, then retreated to around $78,000 after some PCE indicators exceeded expectations. The price fluctuated around $80,000, resembling a market shift from chasing a breakout to testing whether the high-level sell orders could continue to be absorbed.
As of August 27, the US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days totaling approximately $3.044 billion. The single-day net inflow has noticeably declined from the phase high of $606.3 million on August 20, with $242.3 million on August 27. The continued inflows indicate that the spot capital channel is still active, but this alone cannot prove the next market phase; whether the new funds are sufficient to absorb profit-taking is a more direct observation point. For holders, $80,000 is not a conclusion; more attention should be paid to whether funds continue to absorb during pullbacks.
#BTC #比特币ETF💭Looking Back at History｜After Terra's Collapse, the Crypto World Was Completely Rewritten
The 2022 Terra/LUNA crash was a major watershed moment for the crypto industry.
Before this, the market was flooded with high-yield algorithmic stablecoins and unchecked leveraged carry trades. Capital was frantically chasing mindless high APYs, and everyone was used to earning passively with their eyes closed.
Terra's collapse triggered a chain reaction: tens of billions in market value evaporated instantly, causing a domino effect that led to the bankruptcy of institutions like Celsius and 3AC, wiping out countless investors' assets.
After the storm, industry rules quietly changed:
✅ The market began to be wary of the systemic risks of uncollateralized algorithmic stablecoins
✅ Institutional risk control standards tightened, and leverage use became more conservative
✅ Regulatory attention increased significantly, raising the importance of compliance narratives
✅ Investors stopped blindly believing in “perpetual motion machine” style high yields and started scrutinizing the underlying logic
Markets may cycle, but the lessons from the pain are hard to erase. Every time the bull market party rages, don’t forget the warning Terra’s collapse left us: behind ultra-high yields often lurk devastating risks. $LIGHT I went long on this coin. This coin currently has a circulating market cap of about 9.3 million USD, but the total contract open interest across the network reaches as high as 23 million USD, more than twice the market cap. The big players have established a large number of long positions to manipulate it. The last time a coin had contract open interest more than twice its spot market cap was $TRB. Those who experienced TRB in 2024 know how wild it was.
Coins with small market caps and high control are the easiest to spawn wild coins, so I decided to take a gamble and get in. There's a lot of upside potential; if it doesn't work out, I'll cut losses at 20%.$BTC
1. Bearish for bulls: A large amount of spot buy orders above 81.3K failed to push the price higher, showing clear absorption.
2. Bearish for bears: As shown in Figure 3, aggregated spot Delta and large holders' Delta above 100K show a strong upward trend, indicating bullish momentum remains strong.
3. Expected consolidation range is 78.6K~81.5K (Figure 1), and the price action at the SP (79.6K) left during last night's US session will determine the short-term market direction.
The bullish trend remains strong; be cautious when shorting. $BTC
First signs of weakness.
So far, this rally was driven by spot buying.
This, however, has now changed.
Spot CVD is declining while perps are pushing price higher.
This makes the move less sustainable and more vulnerable to leverage flushes.
We might see a pullback soon.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest bitcoin:native Monthly
Only 4 trading days remain until Bitcoin locks in a monthly close above the key monthly 10-day moving average and sets a new monthly closing high.
This massive reversal erased all the selling pressure from June and then some. It occurred after the first-ever monthly tweezer bottom pattern, located at the 50-day moving average, within the tightest Bollinger Bands squeeze ever, nested inside a descending wedge, which itself is nested within a larger expanding wedge.
Analysts with large followings not only missed this reversal, but their expectations for the next move were far below reality. This extremely bullish technical pattern appears against a macro backdrop of runaway government debt and an accelerating business cycle.
Infinity/21M is not just a meme, and the magnet is not the target. Breaking *above* the megaphone pattern is where things start to get interesting, and I expect this rally to destroy diminishing marginal returns. "BTC Dressed as Gold, ETH Still Playing the Loyal Follower"
The market has been looking more and more surreal lately—BTC has broken up with the US stock market and turned to hug gold's leg. Its correlation with stocks dropped from 60% to 33%, while with gold it surged from 'stranger' to 0.53, fully embodying the "digital gold" persona.
And ETH? It still maintains a 0.95 "conjoined twin" relationship with BTC—when BTC rises, it rises; when BTC falls, it drops faster than anyone else. Its correlation with gold is only 0.23, making it a total "tech stock die-hard fan."
Grayscale's research head confirms: BTC is trading on the "fiscal hedge" narrative, with US debt surpassing 40 trillion and long-term yields soaring, pushing funds to seek safe havens; ETH is still telling the "industry story," totally on a different wavelength.
I still hold long ETH positions, but seeing the data made my heart skip a beat—I realized I was betting on a "tech stock," not "gold." I've set a take-profit at 2600; once it hits, I'll exit. The rest of the profits will be left to fate, but my running shoes are already on.
⚠️ Risk: The crypto world changes faster than internet celebrities. The above is purely self-comfort; please fasten your seatbelt when trading.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Brothers, today let's talk about $DOGE.
For the bulls, there really is some solid stuff. On Binance, 78% of the smart money is long, and retail is even more extreme, with 72.8% bullish. It's rare to see retail and smart money on the same side; such consensus is uncommon for a token like Dogecoin. Plus, in early August, whale addresses bought heavily, accumulating 180 million DOGE within two weeks, propping the price around $0.07.
However, bearish signals can't be ignored either. The RSI has already surged to 77, clearly overbought. What's more interesting is that although everyone is bullish, the spot market taker buy/sell ratio is only 0.79, with selling pressure stronger than buying—someone is quietly offloading. Think about it, with longs so crowded, if the $0.09 level doesn't hold, a stampede could happen fast, and those leveraged long liquidations could crash the price.
The technicals are also awkward. $0.09 itself is a triple resistance point combining SMA 7, SMA 200, and the pivot point. With these four technical indicators stacked at one price, it will either surge or crash—no middle ground. Above, $0.10 is the upper Bollinger Band plus a psychological barrier, a tough nut to crack; below, support is layered at $0.08 and $0.07.
So this level is a gamble on size. What do you guys think? Bet on it riding the meme sentiment up, or wait for a pullback to $0.08 before jumping in? Show your positions in the comments so I can copy your homework.#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
Looking at this AI earnings season, a very core change has emerged.
The data remains solid. Nvidia's Q2 revenue doubled, with data centers accounting for over 90%. Marvell also exceeded expectations, and next quarter's guidance looks good.
Interestingly—software side has started delivering results in volume.
CrowdStrike's revenue grew 26%, new ARR increased by 51%, and they raised their full-year forecast. Salesforce's AI product annualized revenue is close to $4 billion. Okta also saw growth. AI is no longer just a concept in PPTs; it can truly generate cash flow.
Of course, not everyone is laughing last. Synopsys's stock price came under pressure after its earnings report; the market no longer treats all AI companies equally. Whoever can build a repeatable recurring revenue model will continue to enjoy a high premium; otherwise, it's no different from hype.
After this earnings season, the market's core question has shifted—from "Is there really demand for AI?" to "Who can convert AI investments into real money?"
This is crucial for the crypto space. The US stock market has already started eliminating companies that only tell stories; AI projects in crypto are no different. Pure hype will be accelerated in cleansing, and funds will concentrate on projects with real revenue. Once recurring revenue on the software side is established, it improves the profitability quality of the entire tech sector. As crypto is a high-volatility asset, it will benefit in the long term.
AI has moved from "who burns money faster" to "who can make money." $ETH's trading volume today is even stronger than Bitcoin's, but the price is like a deflated balloon. I've been watching the 2500 level for three days, and it just can't hold. So all the trading volume is for nothing. Bitcoin, you need to move; if you don't, I won't dare to move on my own.
TRX is stuck at 0.34, moving slower than my grandma walks, completely stuck both up and down. Watching it is less interesting than watching ants move; at least ants know where they're going.
$SOL has reached 110, up 44% this month. The base position in hand can finally stand tall, but the sharp rise makes me nervous, a pullback could come anytime. For those who haven't gotten on board, don't rush; wait for a pullback near 100. Wouldn't it be better to save the money for a hotpot dinner with me instead of chasing highs?
$BTC is playing tug-of-war around 80,000 today. The problem is that purchasing power in the US can't keep up; Coinbase premium is negative, and without US buyers stepping in, even pushing to 81,000 is tough. The good news is the macro environment is strong, supported by the logic of a weakening dollar. ETFs have had a net inflow of 2.6 billion USD over the past 8 days, so the drop isn't deep.
In the short term, focus on the 79,000 to 81,300 range for consolidation. Only when volume breaks through the upper edge or ETF inflows accelerate again is it a signal to add positions.$BTC
First signs of weakness.
So far, this rally was driven by spot buying.
This, however, has now changed.
Spot CVD is declining while perps are pushing price higher.
This makes the move less sustainable and more vulnerable to leverage flushes.
We might see a pullback soon.Brothers, don't sleep tonight. At 10 p.m. Beijing time, Fed Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole. It's been three months. Since taking office, this guy has done three things: canceling forward-looking guidance, stopping updates on bitmap plots, and refusing to explain policy logic at press conferences. The market has gone crazy. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries has surged to its highest level since 2007. Gold is approaching a three-month high. BTC is fluctuating around $80,000. Every word Washi says tonight is pricing the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin. First, why the Fed's credibility has collapsed. First, a communication vacuum. At the July FOMC meeting, 9 votes to 3 remain unchanged. At the press conference, Wash refused to explain why—he directly said, "Let the market raise rates on behalf of the Fed." When asked under what circumstances a rate hike would happen. He didn't answer. He was asked if the inflation target would be adjusted. He didn't answer. What was the result? The bond market experienced the most severe sell-off in years. Second, the Treasury Department added to the chaos. Treasury Secretary Bescent announced last week to expand the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases. The 30-year yield fell 10 basis points that day, but rebounded the next day. The market was completely stunned: who really calls the shots between you two? The FX director at Toronto Silver Gold Bull quoted: "Walsh wants to cut back on intervention to make market signals clearer, but the Treasury is distorting these signals. If Walsh doesn't clarify his position on Friday, the dollar could drop sharply." Third, the market is "raising rates" for the Federal Reserve. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries once broke through 5.3%, the lowest since 2007Crypto momentum is waking up.
$BTC above $80K is pulling risk back into the market, with $ETH and $SOL joining the move. Hyperliquid and Stellar are also showing strength as liquidity returns.
But the real test is next: can alts keep running without Bitcoin losing support?
I’m watching volume, resistance, and macro closely.
#WalshPolicyFramework #IranOpensHormuzLane #GoldVsBTCETFFlows "Waller's Night Banquet at Jackson Hole: Hawkish Talk, Dovish Action"
Waller takes the stage tonight with a set script: hawkish rhetoric in words, no rate hikes in action—it's an election year, who dares to really poke the interest rate hornet's nest? Most likely, he'll play the "debt swap magic," exchanging long-term debt for short-term debt to suppress long-end yields, then after the election, stage the "rate cut timing is ripe" act.
Market signals: ETF funds for BTC and ETH continue net inflows, with buying pressure holding strong; U.S. stocks are internally divided, Nvidia stands alone, AI smaller players are already weak. If AI can't drive momentum, overflow funds might rush into the crypto space to stir things up.
Short-term script: BTC and ETH will first undergo a shakeout to clear floating positions, then leverage policy expectations plus incremental funds to push upward.
⚠️ Risk: Macro speeches are even more volatile than predecessors' promises; the above is pure speculation, please prepare quick-acting heart medicine for your trades.
$BTC $SOL
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Just now, mysterious funds dropped 21 million euros! After this French company received the money, the first thing it did was to buy Bitcoin... With this batch of funds landing, its potential total holdings will rise to 3,415 BTC. In the current crypto asset narrative, this position is already enough to make it a highly benchmarked “Bitcoin proxy stock” in the European market. French listed company Capital B raised 21 million euros through a directed share issuance (ABSA) and increased its Bitcoin holdings, essentially replicating the U.S. stock MicroStrategy’s “equity financing—coin hoarding—market cap expansion” capital flywheel. This is far from an ordinary announcement; it is another landmark event of the European capital market incorporating Bitcoin into the core treasury assets of enterprises. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Institutional funds currently dominate; identifying sector rotation quality from the perspective of capital structure
BTC remains the ballast stone of the entire market, determining the overall market safety cushion; ETH is used to gauge the risk appetite of institutions versus retail investors. When $BTC enters a high-level consolidation phase without continuous unilateral rallies, focus should be on whether funds continue to cluster at the top or are willing to spread out into niche sectors. This round focuses on tracking the directions of liquid staking + on-chain real yields + derivative tools to observe the possibility of collective sector rallies.
🟠BTC｜Market foundation and institutional capital benchmark
🔵ETH｜Risk appetite calibration scale
🟣LDO｜Leader in liquid staking
🟢EIGEN｜Core of the re-staking sector
Two sets of observation criteria to identify effective rotation
First, look at relative strength and capital background.
Do not only watch BTC price fluctuations; focus on whether the ETH/BTC ratio can steadily rise, while also observing if spot ETF funds maintain continuous net inflows. A rising price ratio combined with sustained institutional capital inflows is the prerequisite for opening risk appetite; if the rise is merely driven by contract leverage pulses, the sustainability of the market will be greatly reduced.
Second, distinguish between independent speculation and sector resonance.
Avoid chasing single-day violent rallies of individual tokens; many token surges are just short-term switches of existing funds. Real sector opportunities require multiple targets within the sector to simultaneously increase volume, on-chain business data to improve synchronously, rather than relying solely on news-driven stimuli.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $6.4 billion in options have settled, BTC didn't crash: The real directional choice is at 22:00 tonight
BTC surged to around 81,500 last night then pulled back to 80,000, indicating that selling pressure between 81,200 and 81,500 remains heavy, but there is also support below.
More importantly, about $6.44 billion in BTC options have settled today. With 81,700 contracts and a maximum pain point around 68,000–70,000, the spot price was not dragged to the so-called "pain point," proving again that the maximum pain point is not necessarily a price target.
Now the only real variable left is 22:00 tonight—the debut of Wash at Jackson Hole.
If the speech is hawkish and US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen in sync, BTC could fall below 79,000 and may need to defend 78,000 or even 76,800; if the tone is restrained and 80,000 is regained with volume, the market still has a chance to challenge 81,500 again.
The derivative pressure this afternoon has been released; the macro pricing tonight is the main event. No need to rush into the first spike—wait for US Treasury yields, the dollar, and BTC to give the same direction. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ 🇨🇳 BTC is currently hovering around $78,000
The current market panic is more due to BTC falling back from the $81,250 high rather than a clear trend reversal in the market.
In my view, this looks more like a normal capital rotation and profit-taking after a rapid rise.
BTC has temporarily pulled back after the surge, but institutional funds have not significantly withdrawn. Recently, spot ETFs still maintain inflows, indicating that the core market demand remains.
📌 So what really needs attention now is not a single pullback, but whether funds are continuously exiting.
If ETF inflows continue and BTC can stabilize in the key support area, then this pullback may just be a normal correction within an uptrend.
🔥 Price pullback ≠ trend reversal.
Next key focus: whether BTC can regain and hold above $80K, and whether institutional fund inflows can continue.
#WalshPolicyFramework
#AIShiftsToSoftware
#BTCOptionsExpiryTestAt 10 PM tonight, the real test for BTC arrives: 9 consecutive days of capital inflow—can it withstand the Wash test?
A significant signal is emerging in the crypto market: On August 27, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $242 million, and the ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of about $235 million, both marking the 9th consecutive trading day of net inflows. The capital flow indicates that institutional support has not noticeably waned despite BTC approaching the $80,000 mark.
But the real factor deciding short-term volatility tonight is Wash.
Inflation remains above the 2% target, multiple Fed officials continue to warn of inflation risks, and the dollar remains near a one-week high. The market needs to judge whether Wash will continue to emphasize "higher rates for longer" or leave room for future policy easing.
Key BTC levels to watch:
**Holding above 80,000:** Continue to challenge 81,200–81,500;
**Breaking previous highs:** Further observe 84,000 above;
**Falling below 78,000:** Short-term structure weakens, first look for support near 76,800.
So don’t just focus on the first spike tonight.
ETF inflows determine if there’s money to catch the downside; Wash determines if capital dares to push higher. The true direction depends on macro expectations and spot capital giving the same answer. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
NVIDIA and Marvell continue to validate the rigid demand for hardware computing power and network connectivity. Marvell's revenue surged 37% year-over-year, and its guidance for the next quarter also exceeded Wall Street expectations. But the more intriguing signals come from the software side: CrowdStrike's quarterly revenue grew 26%, net new annual recurring revenue soared 51% to $333 million, and it raised its full-year outlook. Salesforce and Okta also won a surge in market performance with solid results and improved guidance.
Putting these data points together releases an extremely critical turning signal.
The market discussion focus has completely shifted from whether AI demand exists to who can truly convert AI investment into new orders, recurring revenue, and free cash flow.
In the previous phase, as long as a company was associated with the AI concept, hardware shipments could drive a market frenzy—this was a crude expectation race. But today, investors no longer treat all AI stocks equally. Hardware procurement always faces the pulse and digestion of capital expenditure cycles, while once the software side forms subscription stickiness based on workflows and security entry points, it brings a growth curve that is far more stable and lasting than one-time hardware purchases.
The next phase to truly enjoy valuation premiums will not be companies with AI visions written all over their PPTs, but those commercial winners who can consistently generate real cash flow on the books.
After reviewing this round of earnings, do you think the main capital flow in the second half of the year will accelerate the rotation from hardware to software?No surprise from PCE, so why did BTC still drop?
Before the data release, the market had already priced in the scenario of "moderate inflation and expected rate cuts." Core PCE stayed flat at 3.3%, and consumption even exceeded expectations — the economy hasn't collapsed, so rate cuts can't come quickly. With expectations unmet, funds naturally took profits first.
Additionally, the contract leverage artificially pushed a false breakout at 81,500, which spot couldn't hold at all, so the surge and subsequent pullback was inevitable.
From a technical perspective, there is support in the 78,000-78,500 range, and a stronger chip zone at 77,000-77,500. As long as this area isn't broken, the structure remains intact.
What do you think about Jackson Hole tonight? Is Wash leaning hawkish or dovish? Is your position set according to this expectation?
$BTC Global markets are entering a critical pricing moment tonight. Fed Chair Kevin War will deliver his first core speech since taking office at Jackson Hole. Currently, BTC is hovering around $80,000, and the US Treasury market is highly sensitive. Gold, US stocks, and crypto assets are all waiting for the same answer: Facing persistent inflation, how long is the Fed prepared to tolerate? The latest July PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, core PCE remained at 3.3%, still clearly above the 2% target. After the data was released, interest rate futures pushed the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September from about 36% to 44%. Meanwhile, Fed officials such as Schmid and Hammack have recently sent hawkish signals, indicating that the internal debate over "whether further tightening is needed" has not ended. Therefore, I believe tonight's benchmark script is not a "sudden dovish," but more likely: hawkish wording but no clear promise of rate hikes. Wash needs to maintain the Fed's credibility in fighting inflation, but may not be willing to lock in the September policy path early. The market really needs to watch five things: (1) Does he believe the current rate of 3.50%-3.75% is enough to contain the economy;
(2) Whether the trigger conditions for another rate hike have been clearly stated;
(3) How to evaluate the recent rapid rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields;
(4) Whether to continue reducing forward-looking guidance;
(5) Among inflation, employment, and growth, who will have the highest policy weight in the next phase? Reuters pointed out that since Walsh took office three months ago, he has adopted a "less is more" approach, and tonight's greatest pressure#AIShiftsToSoftware AI hardware proved companies are willing to spend. Software now has to prove they're willing to pay. Strong results from CrowdStrike, Salesforce and Okta suggest monetization may finally be moving beyond GPUs and data centers into recurring software revenue.
That's important because infrastructure built the AI boom, but applications need to create the returns. If ARR, margins and FCF keep improving, the next AI winners may be the companies monetizing compute, not selling itThe market suddenly accelerated and fell sharply. BTC and ETH plunged simultaneously. At times like this, the first thing that often appears in the group isn't analysis, but two words: Run? But the more suddenly accelerated the market, the less I want to make decisions based on emotions right away. Because you have to first understand: is this a trend reversal, or is it a concentrated risk release? BTC just went through a very fierce rally. Don't forget, BTC had previously surged from about $62,000 all the way above $80,000, completing an extremely exaggerated rebound in just one week. Last night, it even reached around $81,280. After such a rapid rally, a sharp drop is not surprising. What really matters is that this rally is not entirely a "new bulls entering the market frantically." Data shows that during BTC's rise, futures open interest actually dropped to a nearly five-month low. This means that a large part of the previous rally was driven by short closing + short liquidation. This is what we often call short squeeze. Bears are forced to buy back, prices rise rapidly, triggering more short stop-losses, ultimately forming a continuous rise. But this also raises the question: once the expected short positions have basically been blown out, who will continue to chase? So in today's downward trend, I believe at least three forces exist simultaneously. First: 80,000–81,000 is itself a pressure zone. After BTC surged above 80,000, it did not truly achieve a valid breakout. What the market really needs to overcome now is,What truly determines BTC's direction tonight is not how hawkish Waller is, but whether long-term U.S. Treasury yields can be suppressed.
Jackson Hole has entered a critical moment; the real "pricing anchor" for global assets is no longer just the policy interest rate, but the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields.
Recently, the 30-year Treasury yield briefly rose to about 5.3%, the highest since 2007. Long-term financing costs are directly suppressing valuations of tech stocks, gold, and crypto assets.
Tonight, focus on two scenarios:
**Optimistic:** Waller remains hawkish on inflation but acknowledges that current financial conditions are sufficient to restrain it and ease pressure on long-term rates. If the 10-year and 30-year yields fall together, the dollar weakens, and BTC reclaims $80,000, there is a chance to challenge $82,000–$85,000.
**Pessimistic:** Policy communication fails, the market continues to price in "higher rates for longer," the 10-year yield returns above 4.7%, the 30-year pushes back to 5.3%, and high-duration tech stocks and BTC may face concentrated profit-taking.
So don’t just watch BTC tonight.
What Waller says is superficial; how Treasury yields move is the real answer for the market. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SNDK
Just now, we were talking about South Korea's KOSPI hitting a historic high
Then suddenly KOSPI dropped
Tech has been constantly releasing good news these days
Sometimes Nvidia exploded
Sometimes Okta and CrowdStrike exploded again
Sometimes South Korea's KOSPI hit a historic high again
Damn, with so many tech positives coming out
Logically, these AI chip sellers in South Korea should collectively take off, right?
But they didn't
South Korean investors thought it would take off today
So why is it still falling?
South Korea's KOSPI weakened today
At one point in the morning session, it fell below 6900
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also retreated
I now seriously suspect
All those positives earlier were just manipulations by big players to cut this wave of retail investors 😂
But we also need to reflect
Why?
It feels like the beautiful prospects of AI
Suddenly cooled down
This shows the market is starting to doubt whether AI capital expenditure can keep surging
Funds collectively fled the Korean tech stock sector
This indicates one thing
The market is no longer easily excited
AI is indeed impressive
But has the stock price already peaked ahead of time? 😂
Once this news came out
Storage tokens like SanDisk and on-chain AI concept coins will directly face pressure
SanDisk has been dropping like crazy these past two days
The market has been acting like a lunatic these days
#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙