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Bitcoin's correlation with gold has broken through 50%, while its 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from over 60% to about 33% AI risk appetite rises, Bitcoin also rises AI risk appetite falls, Bitcoin still rises Since the big surge on 8/19, Bitcoin follows gold during the day and US stocks at night Tonight at 10 PM, Powell will give a speech. Personally, I think policy credibility might be more worth watching than interest rate hikes or cuts Why say this? Because since he took office, he has been hawkish but no rate hikes have been seen yet. If there is a black swan event in Q4, it will most likely be the implementation of rate hikes and a stronger dollar. Crypto market will be the first to pull back, followed closely by US stocks, then gold will have a soft landing If rates remain unchanged until the end of the year, with a weak economy and worsening employment, there might even be a passive rate cut Approaching the US midterm elections, when money is tight, Trump might exert pressure behind the scenes. Even though rate hike expectations are high now, they could very likely be forcibly delayed until year-end So in September, October, and November, Bitcoin and Ethereum will most likely experience wide fluctuations, just like gold and oil have this year Qatar LNG force majeure extended for another month Are Europeans about to start scrambling for gas? 😂 Another not-so-good news from Qatar LNG force majeure continues to be extended by one month What does it mean? Simply put Bro, it's not that I don't want to supply you, it's that I really can't supply normally 😂 And no penalty for breach of contract is required The problem is Qatar is not an ordinary natural gas seller Before the war, Qatar supplied about one-fifth of the world's LNG Now, due to the war, facility damage, and shipping issues in the Strait of Hormuz, exports have been severely affected Latest data from Reuters shows Qatar's LNG exports this year have plummeted about 96% compared to the same period last year Originally there were 509 shipments Now only 18 shipments This is not just a slight reduction It's like the crystal has been taken away immediately What's more troublesome is Europe Europe's natural gas storage is already at a historical low for this season If the winter gets a bit colder And then another wave of supply issues comes... Natural gas prices might start to spike again Then natural gas prices rise → electricity prices rise → business costs rise → inflation pressure rises The Federal Reserve is going to have a headache again I just wanted to cut interest rates, and you give me this? 😂 Natural gas issues won't directly crash the big cake $BTC Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), wrote that ETF inflows into ETH have hit a new high, with BTC ETFs seeing $242 million in inflows today and ETH ETFs inflowing $234 million. Although ETH's total market cap is only 18.8% of BTC's, it absorbed 96.8% of BTC's inflows, showing significantly stronger fundraising than BTC. In the current context of continuous capital inflows, the pattern of "consolidation at high levels with rising lows" is quite stable, and another round of bear squeeze could erupt at any time. If not for adhering to trading discipline and firmly avoiding leverage, or even preparing to go long on ETH. His current positioning strategy is: when no short positions are opened, hold all positions in ETH spot and wait for prices to rise; once a long position is opened, it means increasing leverage and triggering a risk of liquidationSEC Reopens the ICO Door, Where Have the Buyers Gone? The SEC recently proposed a new plan to revive the ICO scene. What does this mean? Crypto startups no longer need to go through the full registration process. Small projects can raise up to $5 million per year, and larger projects have a cap of $75 million. Compared to the heavy crackdown after the 2017 ICO boom, this is quite a turnaround in attitude. But the problem is—the market is no longer the same. How crazy was ICO back then? In 2017, all it took was a whitepaper, a wallet, and convincing a bunch of people that the new coin would skyrocket. At its peak, in January 2018, $3 billion was raised in a single month. Then what happened? Prices crashed, regulations hit hard, projects ran away, and pump-and-dump schemes ran rampant—it all fell apart. Bitcoin was halved twice from its peak, Ethereum didn’t fare much better, and many altcoins went to zero. So what’s the awkward part now? The SEC’s new rules don’t come cheap in compliance costs, and all required disclosures still must be made. Even if you get through the fundraising stage, how to trade the tokens afterward remains a mess. Worse yet—there’s no one left to buy in. Retail investors are now very selective, mostly focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum, maybe glancing at Solana. New coins? Forget it. Those chasing quick profits have moved on to perpetual contracts, prediction markets, or jumped straight into AI concept stocks. Venture capital has cooled off too: · Token-related investment and trading have noticeably shrunk since 2025; · Many top VCs have turned to investing in AI, robotics, and biotech. Is this regulatory move timely? The reaction inside the industry is quite mixed. Tom Schmidt, partner at Dragonfly, said: "This is better than nothing, but if it had come out a few years earlier, it would have been much more valuable. The biggest issue now isn’t fundraising." In short—the regulators are catching up on old issues, but the market has already moved on. Is anyone optimistic? Not entirely dismissive. Winnie Lau from Strobe Ventures said, after the market’s long stagnation, this proposal makes her "cautiously optimistic"—at least it opens a legitimate path for projects that want to do real work, not just launch Meme coins. Cosmo Jiang from Pantera Capital pointed out a key change: "It used to be surreal—issuing Meme coins was legal, while tokens for serious projects were illegal, which is completely against normal business logic." An important update in the new rules is that tokens won’t be permanently tied to the investment contracts at issuance; projects can end when they’re done. But don’t get confused—legal doesn’t mean you have to invest. Carlos Guzman, analyst at GSR, put it bluntly: "The ICO in 2026 is a completely different game from 2018. The days of raising money with just a whitepaper and a PPT are over." The data shows: · Although Bitcoin has recently bounced back a bit, it’s still down about 10% from 2026 to today; · Gold has risen more than 7% in the same period. Even the "digital gold" story isn’t working well this year. By the way, HYPE has been quite active lately, but one project can’t support the whole market. $BTC $XAU $HYPE $BTC Tonight at 10 PM, the whole world is waiting for this man to speak! Brothers, Bitcoin is currently stuck at the critical $80,000 mark, neither rising nor falling. Behind it is ETF capital pushing hard with a net inflow of $2.8 billion over 8 consecutive days, but ahead lies a "high-voltage grid" formed by a massive trapped volume between $81,000 and $86,000. Tonight at 10 PM, Federal Reserve Chair Wash's speech at Jackson Hole will determine whether this market breaks through directly or first pulls back for a shakeout. There is a detail you must pay attention to: this round of rally is not driven by contract retail traders rushing in with leverage, but by solid spot buying and shorts conceding and closing positions. Futures open interest has dropped from 646,000 contracts to 588,000 contracts, indicating the load has lightened; the main players do not intend to fight contract longs here but are accumulating. $ETH $SOL #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ 韩国加密市场的荣光年代，似乎已经过去。但对全球协议来说，韩国仍是一块值得重视的市场 没错，在最近一轮漫长熊市里，Upbit、Bithumb 等交易所的交易量大幅下滑。可一旦市场情绪稍有回暖，成交量又能在短时间内反弹 2.5 到 3 倍。这说明一件事：韩国加密市场的散户流动性，回得很快 但产业本身是另一回事 和过去相比，韩国加密生态已经失去了不少吸引力。2021 年那轮牛市里，韩国在全球加密圈里是有存在感的：投资者基础扎实，社区活跃，从公链、DeFi、链游、NFT，到基础设施、钱包，各类公司和项目一波接一波 2022 年 Terra 崩盘后，一切都变了 链上世界正在走向两个极端 韩国加密产业放缓的同时，全球区块链行业却走出了一条相当有意思的路 比特币 2025 年的高点，几乎是 2021 年高点的两倍。可 2021、2022 年爆发的那些原生链上产品，增长远没有跟上 市场盘子明显变大了。问题是：到底谁吃到了红利？ 答案其实很简单——一类靠投机需求驱动，一类则把加密和实体经济接上了 市场不久前还在低位徘徊时，同比数据已经把故事讲得很清楚：DeFi 锁仓量大幅下滑，去中心化交易所和中心化交易Why did many people miss out this year, not buying any spot below 60k in June-July, still thinking about the "last dip"? Why do they still not believe that the market is currently on the path of reversal? Because most people are stubbornly comparing it to the 2022 and 2018 bear markets, generally believing that the 2026 bear market will be the same as the previous two and will start in January next year. In fact, this bear market operates very differently from before. This time, two main down waves were completed in one go, and the final wave fluctuated the least, which fits the characteristics of the tail end of each bear market. Previously, bear markets were drawn out wave by wave, lasting a whole year. June 30 this year is equivalent to November 21, 2022 (the ultimate low of 15443 in 2022). This time, after about 48 days of sideways consolidation at the bottom, there was a sudden breakout. After November 21, 2022, there was also about 48 days of sideways consolidation at the bottom before a breakout on January 1, 2023. In June-July, I kept reminding that the monthly MACD had already returned to the zero line; how could it possibly fall to a lower position? It's like a plane has already landed—can it still dig underground? Actually, the signal that the bear market ended at the end of June was not very obvious for BTC; the clearest signals were from SOL and ETH. Now is the time to cherish this opportunity for a pullback. The pace of the world is getting faster and faster, and opportunities often slip away in your hesitation.Every day I just see you guys talking about these positives 😂 This time the angle given by Grayscale is quite interesting; the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, while it’s becoming more like gold, with correlation climbing above 50%. In other words, the market seems to be starting to treat BTC as a “scarce asset” again, not just moving up and down with the US stock market. Look at the US debt hitting $40 trillion, and long-term bond yields rising — naturally, capital will start looking for things less dependent on the traditional financial system. So if BTC can really break out this time, I think the “digital gold” narrative might heat up again. Just don’t know if with so many positives this time, the price can finally make a move haha A few days ago, there were rumors that Trump was going to launch a new coin, and the market's first reaction was definitely to short old $TRUMP. However, Eric Trump personally denied it, the new coin was canceled, but the short positions had already been taken. The most valuable part of this kind of news is often not the news itself, but that it helps the main players find their counterparties. TRUMP rose from 1.37, touched 3.6 in the first phase, then pulled back to around 2.2 and was bought up again. Now it has returned to around 2.7 with volume picking up. I tend to think this is a shakeout before the second phase of the rally, not just a single impulse ending. There is also the expectation of the Korea Blockchain Week event at the end of September. As long as Trump himself is still at the table, TRUMP will never lack traders. In the short term, watch 3.6–3.7 first. If it can really break through with volume, then look at 4.5. Calling for 8 now is meaningless; let's see if it can take 3.6 first.$BTC is no longer a junior partner to US stocks; it is becoming an ally of gold. Grayscale's report throws out a key data point worth every holder reading three times: Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq has dropped from 60% to 33%, while its correlation with gold has surged from 0 to over 50%. In plain terms—Bitcoin is decoupling from US stocks and moving in sync with gold. Grayscale calls this a "currency devaluation trade" returning. After US Treasury debt surpassed 40 trillion, the market began searching again for assets that can resist fiat currency devaluation. Both Bitcoin and gold have been grouped into the same safe-haven basket. Looking at gold's movement, $XAU slid from 4700 down to 4611, breaking below the Bollinger middle band at 4620. RSI is between 54-61, and MACD just formed a bearish crossover near the zero line, indicating short-term weakness. But 4550 is strong support; as long as this level holds, the medium-term outlook remains unchanged. My personal view is that gold's fundamentals are still intact, but Bitcoin is accelerating the diversion of its "store of value" demand. Grayscale puts it plainly—Bitcoin is a scarce alternative to gold. Now that the correlation between the two assets has broken 50%, it means they used to move independently but now influence each other more deeply. In terms of trading strategy, my approach is simple: for those wanting to go long, enter on a pullback to stabilize around 4580-4590; aggressive traders can try a light position near 4610. If it breaks below 4580, don't rush to bottom-fish; follow the trend with a short position and wait to buy back near 4550. Remember, Bitcoin and gold are now grasshoppers on the same rope; gold's opposing side has changed. To find out if 4580 will hold and where funds are flowing, comment "1" below—I’m watching the order book and will report in real time. —Aze #TronMainnetActivatesTVM #PragueOsakaCompatible #GoldUpAbout14PercentInAugustPrevious cycles belonged to the West, so why is Metaplanet confident that the "first Asian cycle" has already begun? At the Bitcoin Asia conference in Hong Kong, Simon, CEO of the Japanese listed company Metaplanet, made a bold judgment: past cycles belonged to the West, but the first Bitcoin cycle belonging to Asia has already started. The foundation supporting this view is the resonance between Asia's vast dormant savings and institutional breakthroughs. Japanese households alone hold $14 trillion in financial assets, half of which lie in zero-interest deposits. Along with South Korea, Hong Kong, and Southeast Asia, this forms the world's deepest pool of patient capital. In contrast, cash accounts for only 13% of household wealth in the United States. Why hasn't this huge capital entered the market before? The core reason is not unwillingness to buy, but inability to buy. Japanese retail investors lack local spot ETFs, securities accounts cannot directly hold coins, and pensions are restricted by fixed income mandates. Currently, only 20 listed companies in all of Asia hold coins, with total holdings less than one-tenth of MicroStrategy alone. But the rules are undergoing dramatic changes. In July, Japan legislated to include Bitcoin under the same regulatory framework as stocks and bonds, reducing individual tax rates from a maximum of 55% to 20%. Compliance channels in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore are also advancing simultaneously. Once forced sell-offs are cleared, institutional breakthroughs are pushing trillions of dormant funds into the crypto market. This wave of Asian patient capital is very likely to break Wall Street's unilateral monopoly on pricing power.Bitcoin repeatedly fails to break through 82000, $6.4 billion options expiry may not be the catalyst for a breakout Bitcoin quickly surged from 62000 to around 80000 in just one week, but every attempt to test the 82000 level quickly met selling pressure and a pullback. Many people tend to focus on K-line signals but put their attention on the huge options contracts about to expire, assuming that the expiry will directly trigger an upward breakout. However, reality may not follow this script. —— The market rumor that attributes all price fluctuations to options market makers' hedging behavior actually exaggerates the short-term impact of options. The 75000-82000 price range indeed accumulates a large number of options positions, but options mainly amplify existing market volatility and cannot unilaterally force the price direction. 80000, as a concentration point of positions, experiences short-term back-and-forth oscillations, which is more a result of market bulls and bears disagreement. Bulls expect to continue pushing higher to realize profits from this rebound; funds entering at high levels are psychologically fragile and tend to exit at slight pullbacks, causing several days of tug-of-war on the chart. Tomorrow, 81,700 Bitcoin options will expire, with a notional value of $6.44 billion, accounting for one-fifth of Deribit's open interest. Call options at the 75000 and 80000 strikes have the highest proportions. This batch of positions expiring will indeed clear some old on-exchange speculative chips, but it does not mean resistance will automatically disappear. —— Although market sentiment has changed, with earlier risk-averse put buyers exiting and call option premiums rising, contracts trading above 82000 have appeared. However, rising premiums only indicate that some traders are willing to bet on an increase, not that large funds are ready to push prices up. Once options expire, two realistic possibilities exist. Even if the binding chips disappear, if spot buying momentum is weak, the pressure at 82000 will still persist. Relying solely on options expiry to confidently break through 82000 and head straight to 85000 USD is overly optimistic. Going forward, more focus should be on spot capital inflows rather than simply betting on options events to cause major market changes. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $ETH $OKB From Floating Profit to Liquidation Edge: Where Did I Go Wrong Shorting SanDisk? 💸 Last night, Nvidia's earnings report ignited the tech sector, and storage stocks collectively celebrated—SanDisk surged over 3.7% after hours to $1,555. Yet, I opened a short position above $1,502 with 50x leverage. Trade Review: Entry average price $1,502, 1,800 contracts, margin only 4.83 USDT. Mark price $1,455, floating loss -7.68 USDT (-154%), estimated liquidation price $1,413, just $42 away from liquidation. Why was I wrong? On August 27, SanDisk announced a joint investment exceeding $31 billion with Kioxia in Japan; JPMorgan set a $2,250 target price. The AI storage narrative is far from over. Technicals: On the 1-hour chart, MA7 crossed below MA25; resistance above at $1,472-$1,485, strong resistance at $1,500; key support below at $1,440-$1,450. Lesson: Shorting a stock with over 525% gains this year and a beta as high as 3.26 with 50x leverage is nothing but gambling. It is recommended to reduce positions and stop losses when it rebounds to $1,470-$1,485; do not hold through the position. For reference only, not investment advice. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SNDK The Treasury can suppress the long end of U.S. debt, but it's difficult to "outlast" the market in the long term. The U.S. Treasury is currently cooling down long-term yields by issuing more short-term debt and repurchasing long-term debt. This is indeed effective in the short term, essentially artificially altering supply and demand to temporarily narrow the spread between 30-year and 10-year yields. But the problem is: the Treasury can change the pace, but it's hard to change the trend. Currently, long-term debt repurchases occur about three times a month, with a maximum single transaction size of $4 billion. In the vast U.S. debt market, the impact remains limited. Past "distortion operations" have also proven this point—policy effects were obvious initially, but after a few months, fundamentals like inflation, economic growth, and capital flows regained dominance. In simple terms, the Treasury can help "buy some time" for U.S. debt, but it’s hard to decide long-term prices on behalf of the market. If the market feels that long-term inflation risk is not adequately compensated, or believes that U.S. debt’s effectiveness as a hedge against stocks is declining, private capital may reduce long-term debt allocations. At that point, the buying created by Treasury repurchases can easily be slowly offset by market selling. Therefore, what truly deserves attention is not whether the Treasury can push yields down, but: under unchanged fundamentals, how long can this suppression last? In the short term, look at policy; in the long term, it’s still about the market. #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $BTC real key point I think next Tuesday These days, no matter how BTC fluctuates around $80,000, I think it's not the most important. I'm now more focused on next Tuesday, September 1st. On that day, the US will release the August ISM Manufacturing PMI. Last month's data surged to 55.6, showing economic resilience much stronger than market expectations. The new data on September 1st will directly affect the market's judgment on the US economy, inflation, and subsequent Federal Reserve policies. Moreover, following that are ADP employment, ISM services, and then Friday's non-farm payrolls. Next Tuesday is actually the first shot of the week's macro data. So with BTC holding around $80,000 now, I'm not anxious. If next week's data doesn't push interest rate expectations hawkish again, and $BTC can hold the chips from these days, I think $84,000 is very likely the next stage. Next Tuesday is worth watching closely. #BTC surges then falls back, options expiry amplifies the key level battle ​​​$ETH ETFs have also seen nine consecutive inflows, but the liquidation pressure of nearly $900M around $2,386 and $2,613 cannot be ignored; Ajian also observed that a whale who previously profited $61.72M has just re-established about 16K ETH long positions through a new wallet, with a nominal value of about $40M. When slow money from ETFs and fast money from whales appear simultaneously, the trend becomes stronger and the spike longer. If you already hold ETH, there is no need to leverage up just because whales are reopening longs; just observe whether the price movement between $2,386 and $2,613 is driven by spot trading or liquidations Extra: Major event decoded from the Core DAO project team ⚠️ Note: The content is only a compilation of public information and does not constitute any investment advice. Many people have a major misconception: that Core's official cross-chain bridge supporting multiple EVM chains for asset transfers means a large number of projects are fully migrating to Core. The truth is quite the opposite; almost no projects have completely shut down their original chain operations, with the vast majority only choosing to expand multi-chain layouts. Core's official bridge connects Ethereum, BNB Chain, Arbitrum, Polygon, Avalanche, Optimism, and Base—seven EVM chains—with significant differences in project entry enthusiasm across these chains. BNB Chain is the public chain with the most projects laying out on Core. Since the second half of 2023, projects like LFGSwap, numerous Meme projects, yield aggregators, ASX Capital, and others have successively deployed on Core. The BSC track is highly competitive with new projects continuously diluting traffic, while Core focuses on the scarce BTCFi narrative, with extremely low EVM-compatible development costs, combined with official Ignition ecosystem incentives. Projects can simultaneously capture BSC's existing users and BTC holders, opening a new growth curve. Ethereum mainly focuses on blue-chip protocol multi-chain expansion, with representative projects like Solv Protocol launching SolvBTC.CORE in October 2024. The Ethereum LST track is fiercely competitive; Core has a native Bitcoin staking system that can form a complete staking and lending business loop, helping Solv reach BTC holders that the Ethereum ecosystem struggles to cover. Infrastructure like oracle Pyth and LayerZero have also been deployed to improve the underlying ecosystem. Arbitrum has many re-staking and derivatives protocols planning new layouts from late 2024 to 2025. The Arbitrum track focuses on ETH re-staking, with weak BTCFi layout. Core's unique BTC+CORE dual staking mechanism can create differentiated yield products; meanwhile, on-chain fees are lower, making it more suitable for retail DeFi users. Polygon, Avalanche, Optimism, and Base have very few mature projects actively laying out, with only sporadic small new projects launching simultaneously. These public chains have their own ecosystem support policies, native assets mainly ETH-based, lacking BTC existing funds, and projects have little motivation to expand externally. Projects willing to lay out on Core have a clear core logic: most EVM public chains compete around the Ethereum ecosystem, while Core is a scarce BTCFi underlying track with a differentiated narrative; smart contract changes are minimal, development costs are controllable; and it can also capture incremental funds brought by the BTC hashrate narrative. It is necessary to clarify a key concept here: asset cross-chain channels only facilitate token transfers for users and do not equal ecosystem migration. Core's current leading applications Colend and Pell Network are native development projects, not migrated from external public chains. Track dividends ultimately rely on continuous implementation and realization. Ongoing observation of project activity and real on-chain fee income will determine whether ecosystem expansion can convert into long-term value. #CORE #BTCFi #PublicChainEcosystem $BTC tonight at 22:00 Beijing time (10:00 EDT) will have its Jackson Hole debut by Waller, combined with the morning's 6.44 billion options (81,700 contracts) just finished hedging—BTC is currently stuck at 79,950. This needle at the 80K threshold is the bulls and bears' last showdown. This is not a prediction; the market is handing the choice to the new chairman's words. The market snapshot on the eve of the showdown (morning of 8/28) Price: 79,950, psychological barrier at 80K + 80K Call concentrated exercise (15.7 billion nominal) forms a double wall On-chain: short-term holders' cost at 68.5K, true market average at 75.8K, current price above cost line = holders overall profitable, but not yet at the “bull market confirmation” 82.5K (50-week EMA) ETF: net inflow for 8 consecutive days about 2.8 billion USD, serving as the floor for not breaking 80K, but not a rocket to 85K Sentiment: Fear & Greed index at 71 (Greed), risk of “selling the fact” rises after options expiry Macro: July PCE at 3.7% is slightly hot, 9/16 FOMC is 18 days away, CME shows 61.6% chance of no change in September, 38.4% chance of rate hike Bull/Bear determination line (based on tonight’s 4-hour close) 🔥 Bull confirmation (standing sword) Waller leans dovish (mentions soft employment, no explicit rate hike, tacit approval of stablecoins) → BTC breaks 81,085 50-week EMA and holds 4h close Extension: 83K → 85K → revisit 90K, ETH breaks 2,550 confirming rotation, altcoin season lights up Characterization: short squeeze rebound upgrades to “bear tail reversal,” bull return possible 🐻 Bear tail extension (broken sword) Waller leans hawkish (signals “rate hikes on the table,” Higher for Longer) → BTC breaks 79K hourly close and fails to recover → strong support test at 77K Break 77K to target 75–76K (75K Call concentration zone), weekly break 74K to 68–70K (200-day MA) Characterization: this August rally from 62.8K to 81.2K is all a B-wave rebound, bear market not over 🌫 Zombie market (sword sheathed) Waller’s strategy ambiguous (removes forward guidance, discusses financial innovation/stablecoin regulation) → 80K ±3% sideways until September PCE Characterization: neither bull nor bear, a “macro pricing power vacuum,” weaving a web between 74–81K The bull or bear is not in this needle now, but in the three jumps: Waller’s wording at 22:00–22:15 → 4h close at 22:30 → weekly positioning tomorrow morning. Instant pump or dump are algorithms listening for keywords, don’t place orders at 22:05. Three scenario operations (for tonight only) Dovish + close above 81,085: lightly go long, stop loss at 79,800, target 83–85K Hawkish + break 79K and fail to recover: reduce to 30–50%, wait for 75.5K to see ETF catch Ambiguous sideways 79–81K: do nothing, let 9/16 FOMC choose for the market Dark line (more severe than interest rates) This year’s JH theme is “Financial Innovation,” with stablecoins over 230 billion + GENIUS Act + tokenized deposits on the table. If Waller says “private stablecoins are better than CBDCs” = biggest institutional gift to crypto in 3 years, BTC benefits from liquidity expectations, ETH benefits from settlement layer premium; if he says “Fed will expand authority to regulate issuers” = short-term negative. This dark line decides whether the bull is a water buffalo or a structural bull. $BTC $SOL has never lacked attention, but sustainable value remains the key question. Fast, cheap, and active across DEXs, stablecoins, Memes, and consumer apps, Solana is also improving network reliability. But Meme-driven activity still dominates. Long-term valuation depends on 3 things: stablecoin growth, stronger non-Meme revenue, and consistent institutional inflows. If all improve, $SOL could evolve from a high-beta asset into core crypto infrastructure. #WalshPolicyFramework The market has been very chaotic recently, with prices fluctuating back and forth, bulls and bears repeatedly taking profits. I don't know how to proceed next. Currently, the market is simultaneously affected by multiple events: Nvidia's earnings release, Jackson Hole speech by Powell, the crypto industry conference, and Trump coin unlocking and cashing out. The market is being pulled back and forth, with frequent two-way cleansing by bulls and bears. One firm judgment: this is not a bull market yet; essentially, it is an institution-led market for cutting retail investors' losses. In such an environment, how can one avoid becoming the retail investor being harvested, or even seize the opportunity to reverse and profit from institutions? I have analyzed and organized a clear and executable trading strategy for the past week: Main line: $TRUMP Rely on the emotional volatility caused by the unlocking event for short-term speculation, capturing two to three opportunities daily to quickly realize profits, without lingering in trades, quickly arbitraging event-driven market moves. Secondary line: $XRP Positioned for long-term layout, buying in batches at low points (direction is short, holding for at least about one month), medium to long term. US stocks short-term (36-hour window) $NVDA Nvidia, SanDisk, Intel, AMD, only very short-term trades, strictly based on information and market sentiment. Regarding tonight's Jackson Hole speech, do not have high expectations. It is very certain that this speech will most likely be standard political rhetoric with no clear signals of rate cuts or hikes in the short term. The tone will be to soothe the market: acknowledging current economic pressures while signaling a regulatory safety net to stabilize market sentiment, without any heavy information that would change the market trend.I just re-examined the market, macro factors, and capital flow side together. At this point in time, my definition of the market is no longer simple: "BTC and ETH have plummeted." Instead, after a rapid pullback from the high, the market is entering a direction-selection phase. BTC is currently around $79,400, peaked at $81,280 today, and then hit a low of about $79,030. In other words, from the intraday high, BTC has pulled back nearly 2.3%. ETH is currently around $2,490–$2,500, with today's high around $2,534 and low around $2,479. The short-term period has clearly weakened, but for now, we can't judge the end of the major rally solely based on today's drop. Let's start with BTC: BTC is clearly weak in the short term. The biggest issue today isn't how much it has dropped. It's that after surging from 81,280, it didn't continue to expand upward. Instead, it fell back down below 80,000. This move shows that selling pressure around 81,000 is real. After a continuous rise earlier, a large amount of unrealized profit was accumulated. When the price couldn't break through for a long time: profit-taking orders were realized → Short-term bulls exited → Fell below 80,000 → Stop-loss trigger → The decline accelerated. So today's round of decline is more likely to be understood as: concentrated risk release after the rise. But right now, we can't directly say "the major cycle is turning bearish."Walsh will appear tonight at Jackson Hole; the real risk is not whether interest rates will be cut, but how he defines "inflation" exactly. The market has already largely priced in the usual storyline of "whether rates will be cut," so tonight's real point of contention is how Walsh will redefine the Fed's framework for viewing "inflation"—this will determine whether rate hikes are truly locked away in the toolbox. This is why the market has been so sensitive recently, because if Walsh adjusts the inflation assessment criteria, the entire asset pricing logic must be redone. 🔍 Core risk: Walsh's "inflation framework" is being reconstructed The market is nervous because since Walsh took office, he has sent ambiguous signals about how inflation is measured: · Possible change in the "inflation yardstick": Traditionally, the Fed looks at core $PCE, but Walsh hinted in July that after January next year, the inflation framework might be adjusted to consider broader indicators (such as trimmed mean $PCE). Under the new metric, inflation figures would "look better," giving more room for policy. · From "observing inflation" to "defining inflation": Walsh has emphasized the need to distinguish between "one-off price changes" and "persistent underlying inflation," believing only the latter warrants monetary policy intervention. This theoretical distinction directly affects whether he will act on the current high inflation data. 📉 Three market scenarios tonight (key focus) Based on possible answers he might give, the market has set three reaction paths: 1. Hawkish (clear fight against inflation): If he clearly states defending the 2% target and commits to rate hikes if necessary. Short-term rates rise, the dollar strengthens, but risk assets may come under pressure. 2. Dovish (expectation of framework adjustment): If he is vague or hints at adjusting the inflation target. Term premiums soar, long-term bonds are sold off (yields rise), possibly supporting gold and cryptocurrencies as inflation hedges. 3. Neutral (communication repair): If he clearly explains the policy framework and removes uncertainty. Market risk premiums fall, benefiting stocks and emerging markets stability. 💎 Conclusion: Uncertainty premium Currently, the market leans more toward neutral-hawkish bets; the key is how he characterizes the "surge in long-term yields." The current market pricing includes an "uncertainty premium"—traders don't know the Fed's next move and demand higher risk compensation. If tonight he can clarify this "inflation," that will be the real reassurance; if he remains vague, tonight's volatility could be greater than the rate cut itself. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #BTC surges then falls back, options expiration amplifies the key level battle 80,000 didn't hold, plunged all the way back to 79,000, let's see what Powell says tonight. Last night $BTC slid from around 81,500 down to 79,000, dropping over 2,000 dollars directly; the 80,000 level hasn't been firmly secured yet. The gains pushed up by short covering and ETF inflows couldn't hold once profit-taking kicked in. Currently, neither bulls nor bears dare to move, all waiting for Fed Chair Powell's first speech at Jackson Hole at 10 PM tonight, which is the biggest variable tonight. Also, about $6.4 billion worth of BTC options on Deribit expire today; market makers' gamma hedging may amplify volatility, and the price might be "nailed" near 80,000 or accelerate through it. Let's first see how Powell sets the tone tonight, then decide the next move. Market Brief: Jackson Hole Speech Approaching, Market Awaits Fed Policy Signals Market Overview At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, the new Federal Reserve Chair, Wash, will deliver his first major public speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, an event with high volatility risk. Current Background: U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and inflation is still away from policy targets. Wash tends to downplay forward guidance, hoping the market will independently judge based on economic data. The market is focused on his statements regarding inflation and interest rates. Scenario Forecast: If the speech avoids interest rate topics and only discusses long-term economic issues, the market will still interpret silence as a policy signal. This speech will impact interest rate expectations and U.S. Treasuries, linking to U.S. stocks, crypto, and all risk assets. Post Viewpoint: Inflation remains the core variable; currency depreciation will weaken the dollar, benefiting risk assets; AI remains the long-term tech theme. The current volatility is just a process of market conflict and game theory. It is considered a good time to position in tech stocks, focusing on SNDK, TSLA, GOOGL. Market Logic Jackson Hole is a heavyweight macro event; even slight changes in speech wording can trigger intense market fluctuations. There are two competing forces in the market: on one hand, concerns about sticky inflation maintaining high rates suppressing assets; on the other, bets on the long-term AI industry logic, treating pullbacks as buying opportunities. Event-driven market uncertainty is very high, and both bulls and bears remain cautious before the speech. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Kansas Fed's Schmied says inflation is stubborn, current rates are insufficient to push inflation back to 2%, does not recommend betting on a rate cut by year-end, committee discussion focuses on maintaining high rates or continuing to raise them. Boston Fed's Collins mentioned that a short-term drop in inflation is far from enough; if inflation rebounds, restarting rate hikes will be necessary. Affected by these remarks, US Treasury yields rose slightly, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets came under pressure. However, BTC and ETH have continuous net inflows from ETFs supporting the market, preventing a crash. Tonight at 22:00, Wash's keynote speech at Jackson Hole is critical and will directly impact September rate expectations. Practical reminder: The first 10-30 minutes after the speech is released are prone to false breakouts; do not open new leverage positions during the pulse phase. Wait 1-2 hours and reassess the market after US Treasury trends stabilize. Breaking alert! Tonight at Jackson Hole, the biggest risk in the entire event is not a rate cut! At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, Fed's Waller makes his Jackson Hole debut with a major appearance! The whole internet is betting on whether there will be a rate cut in September, but this completely misses the point! The real life-or-death question tonight: how will the Fed redefine inflation? The current market environment is extremely fragmented and hides huge shock risks! U.S. employment resilience exceeds expectations, initial claims data have fallen consecutively, unemployment rate has stabilized, and there are no signs of recession in the economy. But inflation stubbornly remains high; July PCE has stayed steady at 3.7% for two consecutive months, core PCE continues above 3%, far from the 2% policy target, and the inflation problem is far from solved! The biggest uncertainty in the market right now has never been a single rate hike or cut, but the Fed's ambiguous policy framework! If Waller leans hawkish, emphasizing the risk of high inflation and maintaining expectations of policy tightening, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will strongly rebound! BTC, which has risen above the 80,000 mark with a net inflow of 2.8 billion on the 8th via ETFs, and gold, which is oscillating at high levels, will immediately face profit-taking sell-offs and sharp short-term corrections! If Waller signals moderation, acknowledges high long-end yields and high debt pressure, and slows the pace of tightening, market risk appetite will fully continue, and the rebound in various assets will keep fermenting! Even more fatal is the current strange pattern: short-term rates are controlled by the Fed, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields remain above 4.6%, and long-end yields rise autonomously. Waller's stance on high inflation, high debt, and high long-end yields is far more deadly than a single rate decision! $BTC $ETH The global popularity of digital currencies is essentially due to people with different needs and circles entering the market one after another, collectively supporting a trillion-yuan market. Many people trade only by looking at candlesticks and ignore the market fluctuations; essentially, it is the result of the competition among different player groups. Different groups have completely different motivations, trading habits, and risk preferences, and their behavior directly determines short-term market fluctuations. This article breaks down mainstream crypto players into eight major categories, analyzing their operational logic from underlying needs, differentiating them from previous trading strategies and historical science articles. 1. Long-Term Belief in Crypto Hoarders: Asset Allaborators Fighting Inflation This group is the most steadfast grassroots players in the crypto world, mostly having experienced a full bull and bear cycle. Their core entry logic is decentralization, combating fiat over-issuance, and asset risk avoidance. Their holdings are highly concentrated, heavily holding BTC and ETH, rarely touching coins, mainly spot dollar-priced, long-term holding, and rarely using contract leverage. They don't care about short-term price swings or intraday oscillations, treating Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge against currency depreciation risks caused by global central bank quantitative easing. Demographics: middle class and above, overseas asset allocation needs, low trust in traditional financial systems, holding cycles in years, no panic cutting when prices fall, and few take-profits when rising, serving as the market's long-term ballast stone. Many of their holdings are held in cold wallets, which won't circulate in the short term, have little impact on market liquidity, but they determine the long-term bottom support for the coin. 2. High-frequency contract speculators: The gamer chasing short-term fluctuations This is the most active and sentimental in the market🇰🇷 SK Hynix: The True Leader in AI Storage, or Just Overpunished? US ADR ($xSKHY) is quoted at $161.61, and Korean stock 000660 is around 1.67 million KRW. This stock has pulled back over 40% from its high of 2.98 million KRW this year, but I believe what’s falling is expectations, not fundamentals. Hard data: Q2 revenue of 79.3 trillion KRW, operating profit of 60.5 trillion, profit margin 76%, all-time highs; HBM4 mass production started in Q2, HBM4E samples are underway; the most explosive news is the 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation plan, reducing about 3.3% of shares outstanding, directly boosting per-share value. The average target price from 10 institutions is $253, so there’s still room from the current price. DRAM export unit prices rose about 400% year-over-year, HBM supply-demand gap can last until 2027–28, and the price hike cycle hasn’t peaked yet. Opinion: The "water seller" of AI storage, the long-term logic is solid. But I remind you, after ADR listing, about $26.5 billion of shares loosened + 2x leveraged ETF unwinding, short-term volatility is scary. Honestly, I both love and fear this stock, so scaling in is more comfortable than going all in 😮‍💨 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 This quantum-secure BTC transaction by StarkWare is not about "Bitcoin is already secure." On the contrary, it reminds everyone that the real trouble in the future is migration. QSB demonstrates that without changing consensus rules, specific UTXOs can be moved into a more quantum-resistant structure. However, its current cost is high, the format is non-standard, and it still requires direct communication with miners' channels; it's not something an ordinary wallet can use with a simple click. I think the most noteworthy aspect of this is that it brings a long-term risk back from a sci-fi topic to an engineering problem. The quantum threat won't hit tomorrow, but if everyone waits until panic sets in to migrate, on-chain congestion, wallet compatibility, and custody processes will all become major headaches. The hardest part of security upgrades has never been the research papers, but actually getting millions of users to take action. #StarkWare在BTC主网发首笔量子安全交易 Fundamental Research Report $APT / Aptos (Public Chain/L1) $3.20 Conclusion first: Aptos ($APT) overall score 59/100, rating Narrative over Implementation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized. Aptos (token $APT), public chain/L1 track. Focuses on Move-based public chain, Meta-based. Competitors include SUI, SEI. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, Gas spikes, TPS limits, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents occur. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days. User side, address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees undisclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, tech integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment. Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparison): Circulating market cap: Aptos $3.00B, SUI undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. FDV: Aptos $4.20B, SUI undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. Annual revenue: Aptos $2.00M, SUI undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Aptos undisclosed, SUI undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Final qualitative: fundamentals solid (score 59/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus on these metrics: protocol fees weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources, for reference only, not investment advice. If indicator deviation exceeds 30%, reassess. That's the fundamentals, the rest is up to the market. #FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit $BTC has climbed sharply, but here’s what makes this move different: price went higher while futures leverage actually decreased. That matters because a rally powered by aggressive leverage can disappear quickly, while a move supported by real spot demand has a stronger foundation. Now the market faces another test today, with roughly $6.4B in Bitcoin options expiring and Jackson Hole putting monetary policy back in focus. So I’m not asking whether BTC is bullish or bearish. I’m watching somethiBTC was mentioned 39 times in one hour, discussion speed still needs to be viewed over the entire day OKX Onchain OS recorded 39 mentions of BTC in one hour at 15:00 on August 28, including 36 on X and 3 in news. Compared to the 24-hour hourly average, this round's speed is 0.50 times, classified as "significantly slowed down"; the sentiment is 54% bullish and 10% bearish. There is no need to force these two lines into the same conclusion: heat reflects how many people are talking, sentiment reflects which side the text leans toward, and neither can directly replace transaction volume and capital flow. If the next round continues with speed, news sources, and actual market transactions together, confidence in judgment will increase; if it quickly returns to the average, this change is more like short-term noise.The tape looks selective, not broadly risk-on. BTC near $79.4K and ETH at $2,491 are both lower over 24 hours, while SOL is holding a modest gain. That divergence reads more like rotation than a durable market-wide recovery. With BTC options expiry and Hormuz developments competing for attention, short-term volatility may obscure the underlying signal. My stance is cautious: SOL strength matters, but BTC and ETH need to stabilize before it carries wider macro weight. Not advice, just analysis.Why can't Bitcoin break through $82,000? The answer lies in the $6.4 billion worth of contracts expiring tomorrow. Bitcoin rose from $62,000 to $80,000 within a week, but every time it neared $82,000, it pulled back. The reason isn't obvious on the charts. It's hidden in the options market. Let me explain. Bitcoin is currently between two options levels. Above is $82,000. Large Bitcoin holders have agreed to sell their Bitcoin at $82,000 and received premiums for it. At this level, market makers, i.e., traders, sell Bitcoin as the price approaches $82,000 to balance risk. Therefore, every upward attempt is blocked at the same spot. Below is $75,000. The same logic works in reverse. Big players have agreed to buy Bitcoin at $75,000 and received premiums. Traders buy Bitcoin as the price nears $75,000. Thus, declines stabilize at the same position. In the middle is $80,000. The level with the most concentrated options. Once the price breaks through $80,000, traders will sell Bitcoin; if it falls below, they will buy. Therefore, Bitcoin has hovered around $80,000 for 3 days. Tomorrow, this pattern will change. 81,700 Bitcoin options will expire. Total value is $6.44 billion, about one-fifth of the open interest on Deribit. The largest portion is call options at $75,000 and $80,000. That means most of the support at $80,000 will disappear tomorrow. The market is preparing for something. A week ago, investors were buying protection against a drop. This week, call options have started trading more expensively than put options. There are concrete examples. 2,000 contracts expiring on September 4th above $82,000 were traded. If the price breaks $82,000, as it rises at that level, traders selling Bitcoin will have nothing left to sell. The resistance will vanish. In my view, Bitcoin will break through $82,000 starting tomorrow. Once it breaks through, the next level is $85,000. $ETH $OKB 🔥 At 10 PM tonight, Waller will take the stage at Jackson Hole. This speech carries more weight than he might have anticipated. The 30-year US Treasury yield has already surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2007; inflation has not been contained for five consecutive years; the Treasury is repurchasing long-term bonds to suppress yields. The market is focused on Waller, just waiting for him to speak. The market wants only one thing—clarity. How exactly do you define inflation? What is your view on interest rates? Will you provide guidance or not? Since Waller took office, he has pursued a "quiet Fed," canceling forward guidance, shortening policy statements, and advocating "less is more." The market has directly punished him with yields—if you don’t give guidance, I’ll use long-term bond yields to make decisions for you. Bank of America warns that if Waller continues to be ambiguous, the 30-year Treasury yield could hit 5.5% or even higher. HSBC says this is his "last chance to curb the ongoing sell-off in long bonds." For BTC, there are only two possible scenarios: Waller provides a clear framework (even if hawkish) → uncertainty decreases → risk assets get a short-term breather. Continued ambiguity → long bonds keep getting hammered → risk asset valuations come under pressure → BTC will struggle to stand alone. Last week, BTC rose from 62,000 to 81,000, fueled by Treasury easing and short covering. Now it’s Waller’s turn. Give direction, catch a breath; keep dodging, and volatility won’t be small. At 10 PM tonight, we’ll see the outcome. 👇 Join the comments and share your thoughts: do you think Waller will provide guidance or keep dodging? #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Evernorth is preparing to give $XRP wings and take off, moving the "XRP Treasury Company" to Nasdaq. Here's the situation: now its S-4 registration documents are effective, and the next step is the shareholder vote on September 30. If the vote passes, the transaction is completed, and listing conditions are met, the merged company plans to use XRPN. This code is traded on Nasdaq. It's not simply about hoarding XRP, but about using funds within the XRP ecosystem to gradually increase the number of XRP per share. The most direct impact of this will definitely be on XRP. Because if it goes public successfully, it would give traditional US investors another channel to access XRP, so they don't necessarily have to buy coins on exchanges themselves. If this model eventually succeeds, the market will easily think of a strategy: BTC can serve as a public company treasury, XRP can too, but in the future, will SOL, ETH, and even other mainstream assets be replicated? This may continue to spread the "listed company + crypto treasury" model. For investors, the most worthwhile moments to follow right now are actually a few key points: whether the September 30 vote will pass, whether XRPN will actually go public, whether capital will be willing to buy after listing, and whether the XRP per share can continue to grow. Right now, the "XRP version of Strategy" has not succeeded, but this approach has finally reached the stage of being tested by the US stock market. If it really succeeds, it will benefit not only XRP but also...$SNDK derivative positions accumulation and weak spot price rally form a liquidity divergence, with $1.73 billion in high-level positions exposing a short-term overheated leverage structure and long squeeze risk. The current market shows characteristics of stock game and local speculative resonance. Altcoins like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR alternately attract short-term funds, while $SNDK's derivatives side is rapidly accumulating liquidity risk. The primary driving factor dominating the market is whether spot buying can support contract leverage; the secondary factor is the transmission speed of funding rate overheating to the long liquidation chain. Perpetual contract positions have risen to a high of $1.73 billion, indicating that chasing highs heavily relies on leverage support. Funding rates remain high simultaneously, meaning longs bear continuous holding costs. As long as spot price gains stall, leveraged positions face extremely high risk of squeeze and deleveraging. The bullish scenario trigger condition is continuous expansion of spot trading volume successfully absorbing leveraged liquidity. If spot buying forcibly absorbs the selling pressure from $1.73 billion positions, smoothly transferring derivative chips to the spot market, the market will shift from squeeze risk to a short squeeze process, pushing prices to break highs; the signal of this scenario failing is spot volume shrinking again. The bearish scenario trigger condition is price rallying again but position volume stops growing, or funding rates rapidly falling. Once new long funds cannot maintain the premium, price correction will directly trigger a long liquidation chain reaction, causing accelerated selling and deleveraging; the signal of this scenario failing is contract positions cooling rapidly while spot buying remains firm. The core indicator to judge whether bearish risk fails is whether actual spot buying can fully cover the liquidity gap caused by leveraged exits. In the next 24 hours to 7 days, focus should be on whether $SNDK perpetual contract positions deviate from the $1.73 billion high, and whether spot volume shows active accumulation signals when funding rates change. #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #Revolut推出欧元稳定币EURRAugust 28 Gold Evening Core Influencing Factors Analysis Federal Reserve policy expectations, tonight's speech is the decisive event of the week Previous PCE inflation data shows inflation is sticky, raising the market's probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates; Thursday's initial jobless claims data was moderate, showing cooling signals in employment, somewhat easing extreme hawkish expectations, with buying support appearing at the lower gold price levels. Tonight at 22:00 is the new chairman's first keynote speech at Jackson Hole, directly affecting the September rate decision expectations, with three scenario simulations: Hawkish speech: Emphasizes persistent inflation, retains the option to maintain high interest rates or even tighten further, boosting the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, pressuring gold prices downward to test support; Neutral speech: Does not release clear policy signals, maintains data-dependent stance, gold prices continue current wide-range oscillation pattern; Dovish speech: Acknowledges inflation decline, signals policy adjustment, weakens the dollar, gold prices rebound to challenge upper resistance range. Strategy: Range 4565-4575, defend 4550, target 4620-4640 Be cautious and observe for the first half hour before data release, then follow the trend accordingly. Disclaimer: Investment involves risks, enter the market with caution #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $XAU $BTC tagged $81,000, then came back into the $79,000–$80,000 range. That pullback is not a collapse. It is mild consolidation after a push. The market ran, took liquidity above $81k, and sat back down on the level that actually matters. As long as $79k–$80k holds, this still looks like digestion, not distribution. The bid underneath is still institutional. Spot ETFs keep printing net inflows. That is the part people skip when they only watch the wick. Funds did not leave because BTC failed to hold $81k for more than a minute. They are still absorbing. That is why the tape can look heavy and still refuse to break. $ETH is doing the same thing in its own way. Still stuck near $2,500, but not falling apart. That relative resilience is why some money is starting to look past the two majors. The idea of rotation is back. The proof is not. Names like $H, $LAB, $KAITO, $BEAT, and $SNDK can print a spike and still not mean anything. Activity is not leadership. A few hot ticks is not a follow-the-leader move. Capital right now looks like selective probing testing, taking a piece, leaving. It does not look like a full-risk bid spreading across the board. That is the difference between “alts are moving” and “altseason is here.” Collective upside needs volume and follow-through. This market does not have enough of either yet. Until BTC holds the $80k area and ETH stops treating $2,500 like a ceiling, the small-cap heat is just noise with a ticker. For most people, chasing the random hotspot is the expensive lesson. Waiting for a broader rotation is slower. It is also cleaner. Let BTC decide if $80k is a base. Let ETH decide if $2,500 is support. Let volume show up in more than five names at once. The market is still searching. Watching is not weakness. Forcing a trade into selective flow is. Tonight's main event at Jackson Hole, Wash's debut sets the market direction At 22:00 Beijing time on August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. Currently, the US core PCE inflation remains above the 2% target, initial jobless claims have fallen to 203,000, inflation stickiness persists, and the employment market remains resilient. Fed officials have recently expressed divergent views, with internal disagreements over rate hikes increasing. The market is not fixated on whether there will be a direct move in September; the real concerns are twofold: First, what standards regarding inflation, employment, and financial conditions will trigger a rate hike or cut; Second, how the Fed and Treasury will delineate responsibilities and authority over long-term interest rate control. If this speech is vague and does not provide a clear policy trigger framework, the dollar, US Treasury yields, gold, and BTC could easily experience a sharp wave of expectation shocks. At 20:30 tonight, the July PCE inflation data will be released first; with the dual impact of data and speech, major asset volatility is likely to increase significantly, so please pay close attention to risk. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC $ETH $SOL 美国财政部宣布扩大长期国债回购，被市场直接解读为隐性宽松 翻译成人话：财政部在动手压长端利率，变相让美元变毛 然后资金干了什么？跑 跑去黄金，跑去比特币 Hashdex的投资总监说得很直白——比特币不直接响应9月议息决定，它跟的是全球流动性和长端收益率曲线，跟黄金的驱动因素一模一样 你以为是加密内部的事？ 根本是法币信用的事 花旗那边刚泼了盆冷水：黄金这波突破，全是投机资金在推，实物需求根本没跟上。 一旦沃什放鹰，投机盘跑得比谁都快 BTC也一样 今晚不是“沃什讲什么”，是 “美元信用往哪个方向走” 三种情景，三种结局： 鹰派（重申通胀风险+保留加息选项） 核心PCE还在3.3%，目标2%。通胀高于目标已经超过五年 沃什如果强硬表态，BTC短期承压，80,000关口面临考验 花旗说：鹰派言论可能终结黄金和BTC这波涨势 中性（只谈框架不谈利率） 沃什上任后干的第一件事就是拆掉了美联储的前瞻指引——删掉声明里的前瞻性语言，成立小组审查沟通方式 他不想给答案 市场想要答案 如果他继续模糊——市场继续猜，波动继续加剧 鸽派（暗示加息推迟或结束） 鸽派信号可能推动BTC突破81,000阻力，Have you noticed a strange phenomenon 🤔: the spot market is calm and has very little volatility, yet contract prices are constantly soaring and plunging. Nowadays, a large part of the market is no longer driven by spot chips, but by the unilateral bullish and bearish battles of contract leverage. Leveraged funds have become the main driving force behind the market, and ordinary retail investors are easily misled by the false market conditions brought by leverage. 📊 Core market data 📈: 24-hour spot trading volume totaled 38.6 billion USDT, while the futures market volume reached 61.2 billion USDT, with contract volume far exceeding the spot market. Across the network, contract liquidations totaled 544 million USDT, with 72% of liquidations due to leveraged conflict, not spot chip sell-off. BTC spot volatility is limited, but frequent spikes and rapid rallies and declines occur during the contract. A large amount of new funds do not hoard spot but all flow into contracts to play leveraged games. 🔍 Market Status Interpretation 🔎: Currently, contract leveraged funds have increasingly significant influence in the market. Often, spot chips are not traded on a large scale; simply opening and closing large contracts can quickly push prices up or down in the short term. This leverage-driven market is very unsustainable; rising quickly can also fall rapidly. Many retail investors see a strong bullish contract and think a new major rally has begun and rush to chase highers, only to see a short-term reversal in the short-term battle of leveraged funds. 📈 Personal Market Judgment 💡 In the short term, this "contract strong, spot weak" pattern will continue. As long as contract leveraged funds remain active, false intraday pulse rallies will occurTruly, hard work pays off $BTC big brother is indeed the big brother, the big coin surged straight up to 81,200, but the 4-hour RSI is already overbought and turning down. I placed a take-profit order at 81,500; I didn’t dare to catch it at 80,000 this morning and now I’m even more hesitant to chase. However, I noticed some big players placing multiple buy orders around 81,000 to support the bottom, so a deep short-term drop is unlikely, but breaking through 82,000 directly is very difficult. The options pain point is at 80,000, and before settlement, it will most likely come back to shake out some traders. As for $SOL, this follower’s gains rely entirely on the big coin’s lead, with no solid logic of its own. It rose 6% today, but on-chain activity didn’t keep up, purely an emotional premium. I opened a small short position to hedge, with a stop loss set at the 150 round number; if it breaks below 140, I’ll add to the position. Before the altcoin season arrives, this kind of rebound is just handing out losses. Overall, this wave is still an emotional recovery after overselling, plus short sellers actively closing positions to hedge ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. Tonight’s speech by Powell is the main event; if the tone is hawkish, this rally could vanish overnight. The selling pressure above Ethereum 2,550 is not to be underestimated, and there’s also a large amount of trapped positions around BTC 81,000. Remember, a rebound is not a reversal; contract open interest hasn’t decreased yet, and the script of both longs and shorts blowing up can happen anytime. Short-term traders should set firm stop losses, don’t be greedy, take profits and run. In this market, position control is more important than directional judgment. #ETH2550ResistanceAndPullback #CautiousTradingBeforeJacksonHoleSymposium #BTCBattleAround81000$LIT If LIT really achieves 1/5 of HYPE's business, the theoretical benchmark price is about $16.5, but the current price of 3.5 only values it at 21%, indicating that value discovery is far from complete; however, due to LIT's low monetization efficiency and unlocking dilution, in practice the market usually only values it at $5-12 (neutral to optimistic), and only if it can hold above $5 can the "1/5 benchmark" be considered confirmed.Not recommended to touch, the reason is straightforward: **The nickname "Sun Cutter" is not given for nothing.** In 2018, TRX rose from just over 0.01 to 2 yuan, and he cashed out $300 million at the high point. The coin price then plummeted 90%, burying retail investors. The SEC accused him of creating fake trading volume through over 600,000 wash trades, and in March 2026 he settled for $10 million to get off the hook. **He holds 60 billion TRX, accounting for 63% of the circulating supply.** With this level of control, he can pump or dump at will; you’re always in the dark while he’s in the light. **Just yesterday he pulled a classic move:** He posted a 6,000-character long article titled "My Girlfriend Jing Tian" that exploded on the internet, simultaneously issuing a token with the same name "My Girlfriend Jing Tian," which surged 993 times in 24 hours with trading volume exceeding 10 million. Who do you think was buying and selling that coin in the end? **The logic is the same as the TRUMP coin we talked about yesterday—whales holding certificates to cut retail investors:** - He has information advantage; by the time you see the trending topic, he’s already set the stage - He has pricing power, holding 63% of the coins - He has exit channels, controlling 90% of HTX exchange (formerly Huobi) - He has legal buffer; the SEC settlement cost only $10 million, while Zhao Changpeng was fined 4.3 billion and still got penalized **But to be objective:** TRX is different from pure air coins; the TRON network does have real business—TRC20-USDT has $82 billion circulating on-chain, stablecoin transfer fees generate $770 million annually, and TRON Inc is listed on Nasdaq. So TRX won’t go to zero, but "won’t go to zero" and "can make money" are two different things. The BTC/SOL/ETH you hold are the real deal. Sun Yuchen himself holds 17,000 BTC and 224,000 ETH—he knows what to hold, so why take his risk? **In short: Sun’s coins are just for watching the show, don’t put money in.**At 22:00 Beijing time, Fed Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole. It's been three months. Since taking office, he has done three things: canceling forward-looking guidance, pausing updates on dot plots, and refusing to explain policy logic at press conferences. The market has gone crazy. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to its highest level since 2007. Gold is nearing a three-month high. BTC is fluctuating around $80,000. Every word Washi says tonight is pricing the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin. First, why the Fed's credibility has collapsed. First, the communication gap. At the July FOMC meeting, 9 votes to 3 remain unchanged. At the press conference, Wash refused to explain why—he directly said, "Let the market raise rates for the Fed." When asked under what circumstances would a rate hike happen? He didn't answer. He was asked if the inflation target would be adjusted. No answer. The bond market saw the worst round of selling in years. Second, the Treasury Department is causing trouble. Last week, Treasury Secretary Besent announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases. The 30-year yield fell 10 basis points that day, but all rose back the next day. The market was stunned: Who really calls the shots? The FX director at Toronto Silver Gold Bull said: "Walsh wants to cut back on intervention to make market signals clearer, but the Treasury is distorting these signals." If Walsh doesn't clarify his position on Friday, the dollar could fall sharply. " Third, the market is "raising rates" for the Fed. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly broke through 5.3%, the highest since 2007. Bank of America warns: If Washington doesn't signal a rate hike tonight, the 30-year Treasury yield...$BTC Wash's appearance at Jackson Hole tonight: Can he clarify the policy framework? Tonight's public speech by Wash at Jackson Hole is highly anticipated by the market. Since the 9-to-3 rate hike split at the July FOMC, he has abandoned traditional forward guidance and no longer pre-announces the interest rate path, but has not clarified the policy trigger thresholds, causing long-term U.S. Treasury yields to continue rising and various asset expectations to become chaotic. However, the probability of unveiling a complete and finalized policy framework tonight is low, as internal related research is not yet complete, and the full report is expected by the end of the year. Most likely, he will only outline the underlying logic of the policy, reiterate the inflation-first principle, list key economic indicators to watch, continue to avoid direct statements on September rate decisions, and maintain a data-driven meeting decision-making model. There are three possible market scenarios: if clear inflation and yield-related thresholds are defined, market expectations will stabilize and long-term bond yields will be suppressed; if only inflation risks are emphasized with vague rhetoric, uncertainty will persist and market volatility will increase; the possibility of releasing an obvious dovish signal is very low, as it would undermine the Federal Reserve's credibility in fighting inflation. There is no need to get hung up on verbal statements about whether to raise rates; the focus should be on two points: what data will trigger policy tightening, and the attitude toward the current high U.S. Treasury yields. The framework outline is far more important than a single rate hint. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC spot ETF has recorded net inflows for the 9th consecutive trading day, but the price has reached a level that's not easy to surpass. The on-chain weighted cost basis is about $79,600; the area around $80K is both a psychological level and the average cost zone for new chips. The main supply and resistance above are pointed to $83K-$84.5K, while short-term support below is at $77K-$78K. Ajian believes the spot quality of this BTC rally is still quite good; nine consecutive inflows cannot be explained by a short squeeze alone. However, the trading logic after $80K has changed: those who bought earlier have profits, new buyers have just reached the cost line, and leveraged accounts are still adding positions. Therefore, I consider $77K-$78K as the first layer of support and $83K-$84.5K as the supply zone. Don't overthink whether it can break through $80K; the market likes round numbers because they are easy to communicate, but on-chain costs and liquidation zones are the numbers worth paying attention to.华尔街还在争论降息，央行却狂买289吨黄金创四年新高 另一边，链上最大多头一夜减仓81.7%套现433万。官方大买与游资大卖的撕裂，让金价卡在4600关口进退维谷 消息面挖掘：除了购金，还有哪些你没看过的关键信号？ 1. 央行为何沉迷买金？ 除了通常的“避险”逻辑，很多人忽略了中国央行自2023年四季度以来最大的单季增储规模（33吨）以及连续20个月的增持记录。这在很大程度上锁定的是未来美元信用对冲的需求，而非单纯的短线逐利 2. 韩国央行时隔13年重启购金：在二季度，韩国央行也加入了扫货大军。这在地缘政治上是重要的信号，因为它标志着在亚太地区，各国对美元资产的配置逻辑正在发生实质性的转变 3. 黄金ETF的空头回补：很多投资者只关注央行，却忽略了7月份全球实物黄金ETF流入了约30亿美元。这说明经过前期的杀跌洗盘，机构端的抛压也已经基本枯竭 在拾贝看来，巨鲸的减仓不应该被单方面解读为“崩盘前兆”，更像是一种止盈后的战术换仓 XAU盘面策略： 做空： 反弹至 4597-4604 区域承压可轻仓做空 做多： 回踩至 4560-4565 附近企稳可分批接多Brothers, I just took a quick look at the whale order data. Four addresses have placed $250 million worth of orders on BTC, ETH, HYPE, and ZEC. After seeing this, my back went cold. BTC whale: Currently opened 46.8 long positions at 77,833, 40x full margin. There are 1,176 buy orders hanging below between 72,222-77,522, and 928 sell orders hangi. The clear bet is that BTC will oscillate in the $3,000 range between 77,500-81,500.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest
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